Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 14th February)

Thursday proved to be a really frustrating day- there were times within each of the three Picks made where it felt the momentum was going to turn back in our favour, but ultimately all three dropped into the losing column.

Those results have erased the positive start to the week, but the weekend can still turn things back around beginning with a busy Friday filled with Quarter Final matches on the ATP Tour and the two Semi Final matches to be played in Doha.

Both of those Semi Final matches look competitive on paper and hard to call and so have not fit the selection policy for the pages, but any selections from the ATP events will be placed in this thread.

The events in Delray Beach and Buenos Aires will have markets set later so will be added, if any selections are to be made, but the focus for now will be on the Marseille Quarter Finals.

Zizou Bergs - 1.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: Some controversy was attached to Zizou Bergs' win at the Davis Cup, but he has built up some momentum and this tournament in Marseille represents a good chance to earn important World Ranking points.

Winning the tournament will be anything but easy, although Zizou Bergs has put a couple of solid wins on the board and that will have given the World Number 62 plenty of confidence.

After coming through Qualifying, Zizou Bergs reached the Final in the tournament in Auckland in the build up to the Australian Open and the two wins in Marseille will mean that the Belgian is set for a new career high World Ranking mark early next week.

He is serving very well in his two wins that have been put on the board and that has allowed Zizou Bergs to play aggressively on the return and mentally break down opponents.

Next up is World Number 52 Zhizhen Zhang who is trending back towards the career high Ranking that was set in July last year. An upset of Hubert Hurkacz in the Second Round is a huge boost for Zhizhen Zhang, but backing that up will not be easy and not on a surface on which Zhang has had struggles to find his consistency.

Much like his opponent, Zhizhen Zhang has served well so far this week and his 4-5 record on the hard courts is partly down to the difficult draws he has faced. Four of those defeats have been against opponents Ranked Number 13 or higher, while the exception is a loss to Denis Shapovalov, who has shown signs of getting back to his best tennis.

This has to be encouraging for Zhizhen Zhang, but Zizou Bergs has had a considerable edge when it comes to the return of serve.

Over the last twelve months, Zhang has an 8-8 record on the hard courts when facing opponents Ranked lower than himself and he has only broken in 17% of return games played.

When these players met in Shanghai towards the end of last season, Zizou Bergs was able to play the key points much more efficiently compared with Zhizhen Zhang. He will need to do the same here, but has shown a bit more than the World Number 52 on the return of serve and that can just see Bergs push through to another Semi Final on the Tour in 2025.

Thiago Seyboth Wild v Laslo Djere: At his best he was a comfortable top 50 Ranked player, but it has been a difficult year for Laslo Djere and the World Ranking has plummeted.

He has begun this week outside of the top 100 of the World Rankings and that meant having to Qualify for the tournament in Buenos Aires, but you have to consider the confidence boost the Serb will have given himself by putting four wins together.

The first three were comfortable, but Laslo Djere needed a final set tie-breaker to get the better of Alejandro Tabilo in the Second Round and set up this Quarter Final match.

There is nothing wrong with the numbers being produced by Laslo Djere and he has been a solid clay court competitor in his career so the surface is not going to be one that is concerning him at all. Facing a Brazilian in this Quarter Final should mean any support from the stands is very going to be heading to his side of the net and Djere will be tough to beat if he continues to back up his serve as he has all week.

With that in mind it is perhaps not a surprise that the Serb is the favourite in this Quarter Final, especially as he is facing an opponent who has also been trending in the wrong direction as far as the World Ranking goes over the last nine months.

Confidence will not have been helped by opening 2025 with three straight losses, but the Golden Swing through South America should be an opportunity for Thiago Seyboth Wild to just begin to turn things around.

He has two wins over home favourites already this week, so dealing with the crowd on Friday is not expected to be a massive problem, and one of the wins has eliminated a Seeded player from the tournament.

Like Laslo Djere, Thiago Seyboth Wild has found a way to protect his serve on a surface where it is that much more difficult to do, while he has also played the key points slightly more effectively than the Serb on the return.

This could be a key to the outcome of this Quarter Final, as will the fact that Thiago Seyboth Wild managed to beat Laslo Djere twice on the clay courts in 2024.

Previously he had lost all three matches against Djere, but was dominant behind serve and then able to get into the return games in those two wins. Both have been played since July 2024 and that mental edge could make the difference in what is expected to be a competitive, and closely fought out battle for a place in the last four and the chance to earn some vital Ranking points ahead of bigger tournaments to come.

MY PICKS: Zizou Bergs - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Thiago Seyboth Wild @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-3, - 0.43 Units (6 Units Staked, - 7.17% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Saturday 17th February)

With just the Semi Finals to go at the ATP events being played and the WTA Doha Final to be played, there are much fewer options when it comes to the Tennis Picks on Saturday.

The WTA Dubai main draw will begin on Sunday, so that is expected to be a busier day than usual alongside the conclusion of events in Delray Beach, Buenos Aires and Rotterdam.

Before that you can read my Tennis Picks from the matches to be played on Saturday.

There was a temptation to back Elena Rybakina to beat Iga Swiatek, but it is not ideal for the former Wimbledon Champion to have had to play her Semi Final while the World Number 1 received a Bye through to the Final.

Iga Swiatek has also enjoyed playing in the Middle East, especially here in Doha, and this is one of those matches to sit back and appreciate with two of the top WTA players going at it.

Rotterdam has two Semi Final matches that also look tough to call with a slight lean on Grigor Dimitrov getting the better of Alex De Minaur for a second season in succession at the tournament.

Jannik Sinner should beat the home favourite, but Tallon Griekspoor has loved the conditions for his serve and it could be a more competitive Semi Final than some will expect.

That means the focus will be on Buenos Aires and Delray Beach where four Semi Final matches are set to be played.

Selections will be added to this thread when markets have been put together with Quarter Final matches played late into the evening in London.

The totals for the week have been updated, and any Tennis Picks will be added here on Saturday.

Tommy Paul - 2.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: This is the kind of situation that should motivate Frances Tiafoe- he has dropped below Tommy Paul in the World Rankings, but will be looking to remind the American public that he is still amongst the best players in the world.

It has been a difficult six months for Frances Tiafoe and his 2024 season has not started nearly as he would have expected.

Last week he suffered a one-sided defeat to Marcos Giron and his performances remain a little sketchy.

Now he has to face the Dallas Champion and a player who is competing with real confidence in Tommy Paul. The World Number 14 has an edge in terms of the numbers being produced and a comfortable Quarter Final win should mean that the Second Round battle with Alex Michelsen is not going to be affecting him so much.

Tommy Paul has also won the last two matches against Frances Tiafoe and he can level up their series on the pro Tour. He is serving well enough to do that, but it is Paul's return game where he looks to have a real edge in this contest and that could see him get the better of an opponent who is still perhaps a little vulnerable mentally after some poor losses in recent months.

It is a big spread that Frances Tiafoe could use to keep this close, but the play is backing Tommy Paul to do just enough on both sides of the court to show why he has moved past Tiafoe in the World Rankings.

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Nicolas Jarry: He has not been at his most convincing best, but Carlos Alcaraz is two wins away from defending the title he won in Buenos Aires in 2023.

He can then move onto the ATP 500 event in Rio next week looking to go one better than last year as Carlos Alcaraz looks to keep his Rankings points high in his bid to return to World Number 1.

There have been moments in this tournament where Alcaraz has just struggled to impose his tennis on the opponent as he would like and this is a tough looking Semi Final against Nicolas Jarry.

They met in Rio last year and Carlos Alcaraz had to fight through two tough sets before pulling away in the decider, while Nicolas Jarry gave him plenty to think about at Wimbledon, a Grand Slam tournament that Alcaraz eventually went on to win.

Nicolas Jarry has a big serve and it is effective on the clay courts, but he was perhaps fortunate to benefit from a Tomas Martin Etcheverry retirement in the Quarter Final. That match looked to be swinging in the direction of the home player before a leg injury ended the contest at the end of the second set and Jarry will know he needs to be a lot better in this one.

Serving well will give him a chance, and getting as many first serves in play as possible will certainly be very important to the outcome of the match.

However, the Jarry second serve has been attacked this week and Carlos Alcaraz is likely going to have success doing the same.

The World Number 2 has been serving well enough to keep Nicolas Jarry under pressure too and he may have enough to cover what is a big spread for a best of three set match.

MY PICKS: Tommy Paul - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-8, - 2.40 Units (32 Units Staked, - 7.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 15th February)

The news about Rafael Nadal has to be considered a disappointment after he confirmed that he would not be healthy enough to play in Doha as he was hoping.

There is still a desire to head to Indian Wells as he takes good care of his body and makes sure he is ready to compete when the clay court season rolls around in April. However, it only strengthens the feeling that this may be his last year on the Tour and that really begin the passing of the torch to the next generation, if we have not already begun to see that happening.

Finding another Rafael Nadal is going to be as difficult as finding another Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic, but the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz can take the Tour forward. Both are already Grand Slam Champions and the hope amongst fans is that they can push each other to great heights in the years ahead.

The WTA tournament in Doha has reached the Quarter Final Round and the three ATP tournaments are effectively a day behind with their own Quarter Final line up completed on Thursday and played on Friday.

Like many Middle East tournaments, the Finals are played on Saturday rather than Sunday and that is the case in Doha and expected to be the case in Dubai when the WTA Tour pitches up there next.

The ATP tournament in Doha will begin next week before the Dubai tournament is next up, although the names involved are perhaps not the elite list we have come to expect.

Below are the selections from the Quarter Final matches to be played in Doha- nothing in Rotterdam appealed as the Second Round is concluded and any selections from Buenos Aires or Delray Beach from the Second Round matches to be played there on Thursday will be added on the day.

Danielle Collins - 1.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: A tough First Round win in the Qualifiers aside, Danielle Collins has continued to play at a high level in Doha and she has four matches in a row in straight sets to reach the Quarter Final.

Despite the fast court conditions at the tournament, Danielle Collins will know she needs to be a bit more effective behind serve if she is going to move into the final four.

No one should be too concerned about the performances behind the first serve, but Collins will not want to allow Anastasia Pavyluchenkova to have too many looks at the second serve. The aggressive American has been confident on the return in the tournament and it will be a match that Collins can feel she can win as long as she serves as she can.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova snapped a losing run to Marketa Vondrousova in the Third Round and will be looking to do the same in this Quarter Final. All three previous matches have ended in defeat against Danielle Collins and the Russian has not been effective enough on the return of serve.

She will go for her big shots and that should mean some success for Pavlyuchenkova when she is able to set her feet, but the aggression of Danielle Collins means there will be plenty of pace coming her way too.

The Russian player has been very good on the return in this tournament, but her own serve has not been working as well as it could and it is Danielle Collins who can progress.

Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: She may have benefited from a walkover in the Third Round, but Naomi Osaka has won back to back matches in Doha prior to that. This is the first time she has managed to do that in a hard court tournament since the Miami Masters back in March 2022, although of course Naomi Osaka has had a year out from competitive tennis.

One of the few matches played in 2024 was against Karolina Pliskova and Naomi Osaka was beaten in a very tight, competitive match.

She will be hoping to turn that result around as she did against Caroline Garcia and there has to be an accumulated fatigue in play working against Pliskova.

After winning the title in Cluj on Sunday, Karolina Pliskova was playing in Doha on Monday and she has won a match on each of the last three days to reach another Quarter Final. Confidence will have been given a real boost by the fight and quality of tennis she has produced, but Karolina Pliskova has spent over six hours on the court and has had to come from a set down twice.

She should have been beaten in the Third Round, but Linda Noskova struggled to put away her compatriot when serving for the match. That can happen to younger players trying to beat a veteran from the same country, but Karolina Pliskova is facing someone who is motivated to show they belong back with the elite on the WTA Tour and someone who will want to earn a measure of revenge for a tight defeat.

Take nothing away from the run Karolina Pliskova is on, but it is tough to sustain the wins when playing on the tight margins. The second serve is likely going to be attacked by Naomi Osaka and it may be tough for Pliskova to really get a good feeling in the return.

It could be tight again with Osaka still getting up to speed, but she should be the physically fresher player and that may show up in this Quarter Final.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: The Australian Open ended a little prematurely as far as Carlos Alcaraz would be concerned, but he has decided to take in the South American Golden Swing for a second year in a row.

He had a very successful time in South America twelve months ago and Carlos Alcaraz will be defending his title in Buenos Aires.

The move from the hard courts to the clay courts should not be a massive issue for someone like Alcaraz, but he will have to deal with a home player in the Second Round. Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won a Challenger title on the clay and is very much at home on the red dirt, while he has come through the Qualifiers and won a First Round match in Buenos Aires.

This will mean Carabelli is well adjusted to the conditions and he will have to try and use that to his advantage against one of the best players on the Tour.

He has won two matches against top 100 Ranked opponents in this tournament, although the margins were slim, and it is a big ask for Camilo Ugo Carabelli to raise his level for long enough to beat someone like Carlos Alcaraz.

The Spaniard is likely going to put the Carabelli serve under pressure throughout this Second Round match and he should have the qualities to find the breaks of serve to cover this relatively wide handicap mark.

Sebastian Baez - 1.5 games v Luciano Darderi: His toughest win in Cordoba was against Sebastian Baez, but Luciano Darderi was able to work his way past the World Number 30 and eventually won the title.

He earned a Special Entry into the Buenos Aires event and Darderi was a crushing winner in the First Round to keep the positive momentum going.

That title win last week has pushed Luciano Darderi into a new career high World Ranking mark and the confidence is clearly not going to be an issue for him.

Sebastian Baez will be playing with revenge on his mind- he beat Darderi in Cordoba in 2023 before losing in the Quarter Final last week. The First Round win was comfortable to earn a rematch with the Italian and Sebastian Baez will feel a stronger start should put him in a position to turn the result around.

The serve let him down last week, but Sebastian Baez should be the slightly fresher player in this Second Round match and he is capable of better than what he showed in the loss. Putting that together here and perhaps being a little more clinical on the Break Points will turn the result around and he can get the better of Luciano Darderi, even at this confident stage of his career.

MY PICKS: Danielle Collins - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-5, - 4.52 Units (16 Units Staked, - 28.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 6th)

The late finishes at the ATP events in Rotterdam and Buenos Aires has meant needing to wait for the Semi Final markets to be put together and that means I have had to wait to put my Semi Final Picks together.

The Final in Doha looks a good one on paper, but I can't really pick a winner between Garbine Muguruza and Petra Kvitova, two former multiple time Grand Slam Champions who have made a very strong start to 2021. That is particularly the case for Muguruza who had Match Points to beat Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open, form that has been franked by the run Osaka had to the title in Melbourne.

After a slow start and some frustrations, the last two days have turned around the form on the selections and it has justified my belief that the system to identify Picks is not a major issue. Adjustments always need to be made and slight tweaks, but ultimately my feeling was that there was more bad luck than bad identification that was causing the start to the 2021 season.

Too many times the inches had just gone against those players I had picked, but it happens over the course of a long Tour and I think the key was to remain largely grounded. If Borna Coric had taken the multiple Break Points he had created in the second set against Kei Nishikori it could have been a clean sweep on Friday, but I am always happy when a positive outcome is seen at the end of the day.

As I have mentioned, the lack of time between the completion of the Quarter Final matches and the start of the Semi Final matches means I will not have full analysis written down below.

Instead you can see my selections for the day with the tournaments winding down before moving onto five new spots next week.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 18-16, - 0.66 Units (68 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 5th)

I won't deny that it has been another difficult week with some of the selections being bad ones, but some being afflicted by bad luck, although they add together to give us the same result either way.

At least Thursday proved to be a little better and gives me something to build upon going through the weekend and into the next set of tournaments that are going to begin on Monday. I will add any selections from the ATP Buenos Aires Quarter Finals to this thread on Friday once the markets are out, but you can read my analysis of a couple of the selections below.

Petra Kvitova - 1.5 games v Jessica Pegula: 2021 has started really well for Jessica Pegula and she is beginning to make a splash on the WTA Tour. The numbers last season were not bad at all, but this year there feels like another step in her development has been taken and her run through to the Semi Final in Doha has to be respected.

It comes after a good showing in Australia and Jessica Pegula came through the Qualifiers here despite the improvement in the World Ranking meaning she should be able to earn direct entry into these events going forward. A new career best Ranking is around the corner, but the American would love to earn that by winning the title here.

The layers are struggling to separate Pegula and Petra Kvitova and that has to be down to the manner in which the former has cruised through the draw. It may also take into account the tough Quarter Final Petra Kvitova had to get through when seeing off Anett Kontaveit in three sets and she is going to have to serve a lot better if she is going to win this match.

Petra Kvitova is very dangerous because she seems to have her eye in as far as the return of serve goes and I expect her to challenge Jessica Pegula much more than Karolina Pliskova was able to do in the Quarter Final. The last two opponents have not really been able to get after the Pegula serve as they would have liked, but it hasn't been the perfect weapon for the slight underdog in this match and I do think Petra Kvitova will edge the match.

They played a really close match at the US Open last September and the straight sets win for Petra Kvitova doesn't tell the whole story. The inches went her way to secure the win, but I think the Czech player will have enough from the return to edge this one too.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games v Karen Khachanov: Spending a little over two hours on court won't be a major problem for Stefanos Tsitsipas, especially as he won his Second Round match to move into Friday's Quarter Final. This looks another big hitting match in front of the Number 2 Seed in Rotterdam who is also the favourite to win the tournament now that Daniil Medvedev has exited the event.

He will need to do plenty of big hitting of his own if Tsitsipas is going to hold off Karen Khachanov who has won both his matches here relatively comfortably. The victory over Stan Wawrinka will have given Khachanov huge confidence, and he has yet to drop serve in the week on an indoor hard court that should suit his game.

Serving as well as he has seems to have opened up the return game and Karen Khachanov has been on his best form on that side of his game. However, you do have to wonder how much success he will have against someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas who has won 71% of his service points played in Rotterdam and held 89% of his service games played.

There is a slight concern that Stefanos Tsitsipas has been broken three times in the two wins so far this week, while he has not been returning as well his opponent, but he has enjoyed the head to head with Karen Khachanov.

Both players are capable of strong serving, but in the two wins Stefanos Tsitsipas has had over Karen Khachanov there has been a significant edge to the Greek player when it comes to the return of serve. Their last meeting in October 2018 was a close one that barely went in favour of Stefanos Tsitsipas, but I think he is the slightly better player at this stage of their career and I think that will show up here.

I expect both players to run through some of their service games, but Stefanos Tsitsipas may find the inspiration to turn a set in his favour and I think he will work his way through to the Semi Final with a solid win.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-15, - 5.74 Units (58 Units Staked, - 9.89% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 4th)

I have to say I am a little frustrated with the amount of times I have seen the player I have picked to win a match not only lose the first set, but to lose it by a couple of breaks of serve.

It has immediately put the selection in a difficult spot, but it is becoming doubly irritating the amount of times the said pick comes back to win in relatively routine fashion.

Putting these together suggests the actual identification of Tennis Picks is still working, but the little bit of luck that is always needed seems to have deserted me so far this season. Seeing a selection lose the one of the first two sets isn't the issue, but seeing a selection continually lose more games than they win in those two sets despite turning matches around is baffling.

It is frustrating, but you have to stick with the process and believe that it is impossible for that kind of situation to keep getting the better of you. Last week I found so many players winning matches by a game or two below the handicap mark because of the early setbacks and it has been more of the same so far this week.

At the end of the tournaments being played this week I will have a look back and see how I could have made the adjustments needed, but I don't want to move away from a method that has found the right winner far more often than not. Those inches going against me is just part of the deal in a long season, but the key is to not lose early faith unless it becomes a trend that travels through a number of weeks.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 games v Lukas Klein: In the last few seasons Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has proven to be a solid clay court player rather than a spectacular one and his early defeat in Cordoba would have hurt. He will be looking to show a lot more about the kind of level he can produce on the surface when taking part in a second home tournament, this time in Buenos Aires, and the top Seed is a big favourite to win this Second Round match.

You can understand why Schwartzman is the favourite when he takes on Lukas Klein who is Ranked closer to 300 than 200 in the World Rankings. The 22 year old has come through three Qualifying Rounds and upset the World Number 103 in the First Round, but this is the first time Klein will have taken on someone ranked inside the top 100 and his clay court numbers do not leap off the page.

That is not to say he is not having a strong week, but this is a considerable step up for someone who has average numbers on the surface despite operating at a lower level than this ATP event is being played at. All credit has to be given to Lukas Klein for the level he is showing this week, but the serve is one that can be attacked and his going up against an opponent who has shown he is a solid returner at a much higher level than Klein is used to playing at.

The key to the match and how 'comfortable' it is for the home top Seed is how well Diego Sebastian Schwartzman can manage his own serve. That has largely been a weakness for the top Seed on the clay courts, but Lukas Klein may not have the consistency to stay with Schwartzman for long periods of this match and that is where I do think the Argentinian can take control of this match.

I am a little concerned with Schwartzman's serving which can lead to him dropping sets by wide margins if he is slightly off his game, but being at home should motivate a better performance than the one put together in Cordoba last week. Any Qualifier can be dangerous and the Golden Swing tournaments have a habit of producing players that come alive and then disappear for the rest of the season, but it would be a massive surprise if Lukas Klein is able to win this match.

Unless he serves at a level that has not been seen from him in his career, Lukas Klein is likely to be put under pressure by Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and it could lead to a relatively straight-forward win for the favourite.

Pablo Andujar - 2.5 games v Gianluca Mager: A battling display was enough for Gianluca Magr to make it through to the Second Round in Buenos Aires, but he was a little fortunate to get by compatriot Salvatore Caruso in the First Round. He faced three more points than Caruso, but Gianluca Mager was able to play the big points a little better and that was enough to secure a straight sets win, although it could have easily gone another way.

Make no mistake that Gianluca Mager will have to be a lot better if he is going to reach the Quarter Final here and I think it will be a challenge for the Italian.

Pablo Andujar was a strong winner in the First Round, but he is a player that has consistently played his best tennis on the clay courts. The level he can reach is certainly higher than Gianluca Mager's and I think their head to head shows that Pablo Andujar is pretty comfortable in this match up and especially on the red dirt.

The Spaniard has won both previous clay court matches between the players and he has dominated the return of serve in those matches which has proven to be the key for Andujar. The return of serve has been an important part of the game for Pablo Andujar in the last couple of seasons on the clay courts and I think that is going to be the deciding factor in this Second Round match on the Golden Swing.

Neither player has had a lot of competitive time on the red dirt so far this season, but I think Pablo Andujar is the superior player on the surface and I think he will be able to show that over a couple of hours on the courts.

MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Pablo Andujar - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-13, - 8.48 Units (46 Units Staked, - 18.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 3rd)

Tuesday has been one of those days when an early night is needed- like many, it has been one of those days where you miss the life we led a year ago and enduring a third lockdown has been arguably more difficult than the first two.

In this thread I am placing the Tennis Picks from the ATP Rotterdam, WTA Doha and WTA Lyon matches that are scheduled to be played on Wednesday.

I will update the weekly record and and any selections from the ATP Buenos Aires tournament on the day when the schedule for the tournament has been released.

A strong start to the Tuesday Tennis Picks was replaced by a poor ending and it means I have yet to turn this week around. Hopefully that begins on Wednesday as the Second Round gets going at most tournaments and I have added three selections from the Buenos Aires tournament being played this week with those matches starting much later in the day compared with the other three events.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Albert Ramos @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Christian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7, - 1.90 Units (28 Units Staked, - 6.79% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 2nd)

The week started off pretty poorly, but two late winners has at least prevented serious damage being done on Monday as four new tournaments begin.

There are plenty of matches scheduled on Tuesday through the day with the majority of the First Round completed. The Qualifiers are done and those who have made it into the main draws will be looking to keep the upsets going, while those tournaments scheduled in the Middle East are the exception to the rule when it comes to Finals being set for Sunday and that always means a busy week in those events.

I've written down some of my thoughts for the ATP Rotterdam Picks for Tuesday and added the selections from WTA Doha, WTA Lyon and ATP Buenos Aires below.

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 games v John Millman: There are some big decisions that will need to be made by the players who represent Australia as they look to rejoin the Tour in 2021 with many missing the entirety of 2020 following the suspension of the Tours. Quarantine issues back home will mean the majority of those players will be living out of their suitcases for the foreseeable future and two Australians will meet thousands of miles away from home in the First Round in Rotterdam.

Alex De Minaur and John Millman will know all they need to about the other, and it is the higher Ranked Australian who will be heading into this match as the favourite. He enjoyed a much better month than John Millman who has made a stop in Singapore where he suffered his latest loss on the way to Europe.

Both are solid hard court players, but confidence has to be an issue for Millman having lost three matches in a row and the sole win coming against an opponent Ranked outside the top 400 in the World Rankings. Last week in Singapore John Millman was beaten by a fellow Australian Matthew Ebden, and his numbers have been pretty poor from the small sample of matches played on the hard courts in 2021.

Those numbers are considerably weaker than Alex De Minaur's numbers so far this season and I do think that makes a difference in this First Round match. Where Alex De Minaur has held 81% of service games played on the hard courts this season, John Millman is at 70%, while the former has also been the much more efficient returner so far.

Since the beginning of the 2020 season, Alex De Minaur has really been on top of those players he has faced outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings on this surface. His numbers have backed that up and I do think he will be able to get the better of his compatriot who De Minaur beat for the loss of four games in September 2019.

No one will deny how competitive John Millman can be, even when playing some of the stronger players on the Tour, and his return game can be a leveller. However I think Alex De Minaur does everything a little bit better than Millman and that can produce a solid win.

Karen Khachanov v Stan Wawrinka: These two have already faced each other in Rotterdam this week and that came on the Doubles court as Karen Khachanov partnered Andrey Rublev to a win over Stan Wawrinka and Dusan Lajovic. It feels like a good chance for Karen Khachanov to beat Stan Wawrinka on the Singles court too in what is likely to be a big hitting match, but one where the younger player may have too much strength for the former multiple time Grand Slam Champion.

There is no doubting how dangerous Stan Wawrinka can be and his serve continues to be a big weapon for the Swiss player and especially on the hard courts. He will look to put some pressure on Khachanov with a big serving day in conditions where it could be aided by the surface, but Wawrinka will be the first to admit that he needs to be a little more consistent if he is going to get back to the kind of level he once displayed.

The serve is important, but it has some pressure on it because of the way Stan Wawrinka has struggled with the return aspect of his game on the hard courts. In the four matches played so far in 2021 the return hasn't been too bad, but in the last three seasons Stan Wawrinka has struggled to break serve with less than 19% of return games resulting in a break.

It is an aspect of his game which will be severely tested by Karen Khachanov who has consistently won around 66% of service points played on the hard courts. His numbers have been slightly stronger to open 2021 as Khachanov has put a Semi Final run and a Third Round run at the Australian Open in the books.

Like his opponent, Karen Khachanov is pretty comfortable in what he can do behind serve, but he also has his issues when it comes to breaks on the hard courts. It is perhaps the main reason this match has been set as a pick 'em, but in recent years Karen Khachanov has had the slightly superior returning numbers which could prove to be the difference.

Stan Wawrinka does lead the head to head 2-1, but the last of those meetings was won by Karen Khachanov who would have felt hard done by when losing the match prior to the win in Canada. The Russian has had the slightly better success when it comes to the return of serve in their head to head matches and he has created 11 break points compared with Stan Wawrinka's 6 break points in the last two matches.

You can't ignore the fact that Stan Wawrinka has been a little more clinical with his chances when they have come up, but winning their last match will help the Karen Khachanov mindset ahead of this match. I think he can level the head to head with the serving edge going to him in Rotterdam and I will look for Khachanov to win this pick 'em match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Egor Gerasimov: The defeat in the Australian Open Semi Final would have stung Stefanos Tsitsipas, especially the manner in which he was beaten, but this is a star player in the making. The win over Rafael Nadal in the Quarter Final showed what Stefanos Tsistipas is capable of and he will be looking for a strong final month on the hard courts before moving onto a more favoured clay court season.

He can have a strong run in Rotterdam this week as the Number 2 Seed in the draw and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be up against a Special Entrant in the First Round. You can't take anything for granted with the Qualifiers usually having their eye firmly in as well as a couple of matches in the new conditions that come with a move to a new tournament, but Egor Gerasimov has benefited from direct entry into the Rotterdam tournament thanks to his efforts in Montpellier last week.

The run last week will have given Gerasimov some confidence having seen off Andy Murray on his way to the Semi Final. Unlike his opponent, Egor Gerasimov would not have had many positive memories to take from his trip to Australia as he exited the first Grand Slam of the season in a match in which he won just a single game!

There is definitely more to him than that defeat to Aslan Karatsev would suggest and the Bulgarian has shown off some solid returning to back up what can be a very big serve when he is hitting his spots. It could particularly be a weapon for Gerasimov on an indoor hard court against someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas who has had his returning issues in his early career.

Signs in Australia suggested that Tsitsipas has improved parts of that side of his game, but the small sample means it is going to be a test for the World Number 6 to see if he can maintain his successes. Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown improvement in his game on the hard courts in the last couple of seasons though and so my feeling is that he will be able to improve his return ratings over the course of 2021 compared to where he has been in 2019 and 2020.

These two players did meet on what has traditionally been fast hard courts in Dubai a couple of years ago and it was Stefanos Tsitsipas who blew past Egor Gerasimov. I do think the latter is improved since then, but so is Tsitsipas and he can begin his healing after the disappointing end to his Australian Open campaign by winning this match in good fashion.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Paula Badosa  @ 1.72 Bet Fred

Albert Ramos - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Facundo Bagnis @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (March 1st)

Interestingly it feels like an almost normal part of the Tennis Tour that we are moving on to four new events that are set to be played this week and from various parts of the world.

We have two big events in Rotterdam for the Men and Qatar for the Women, with two regular Tour level events in Buenos Aires and Lyon too. That means there are some very big names out there in a bid to improve their World Rankings with the system likely to be restored to the usual one year Rankings rather than the two year Rankings used during the global pandemic.

As the Tour begins to move into a more regular feel, there are further positives to take for ourselves as we head towards what should be a more 'regular' time too. I am still awaiting the first vaccine shot, which I will be taking as soon as it is possible, but I am feeling more positive that there are going to be fuller crowds for the Tennis Tour to enjoy the longer we go into the year.

I have mentioned there will be some big names out on the courts this week, but one of those is not Rafael Nadal who pulled out of the event in Rotterdam citing the back issues he was suffering with in Australia. However, two other Australian Open Semi Finalists are both in action in the Netherlands with Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas the top two Seeds in Rotterdam this week.

Australian Open Finalist Jennifer Brady is playing in Qatar this week too in what is always two big Middle East tournaments played in back to back weeks on the WTA Tour. This year is slightly different for the Qatar tennis tournament with the ATP event being held back from January and playing next week (where Roger Federer is set to return), but the bigger event tends to be the WTA tournament played here.

Some players have decided to pull out of the event and that has to be do with the travelling and the Adelaide event that was played last week. I don't blame the decision and the focus for those players is likely to rejoin the WTA Tour in Dubai and then move on to the Miami Masters which is set to begin later this month.

A decent end to the week at least limited the effect of some of the poor results that began the tournaments last week, but I am not too impressed with the start made by the Tennis Picks.

I've not really had a lot of luck with players losing sets by wide margins and coming back to win which was the case again on Saturday when Alexander Bublik dropped the first set 2-6, only to win his Semi Final 6-3, 6-4 from that point. That meant he got through, which is his sole concern, but I missed the cover and just need a few things to slightly break back my way to put a winning week together.

That match is one of three or four that seemed to go the same route over the last week, but I do think the plays are still be identified in the right way and a bit more fortune with a couple of points here and there would have seen much greater results.

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 games v Kei Nishikori: A long lay off down to the global crisis brought about by Covid-19 as well as injury issues have affected the early performances of Kei Nishikori.

He returned on the clay at the back end of 2020, but Kei Nishikori did not play any of the hard court events that took place in the final quarter of the season. That has not helped early in 2021 as Nishikori has lost all three matches played in the Australian summer swing and he was largely uncompetitive in all of those defeats.

It should be noted that those did all come against players Ranked inside the top 20 as the draws have not been particularly kind for Kei Nishikori and the same has happened in Rotterdam at a tournament where the Japanese star is perhaps fortunate to earn direct entry. The change in the World Ranking system has kept Nishikori artificially high inside the top 50, but he has a very tough First Round match against Felix Auger-Aliassime who is Ranked inside the top 20 and had a strong couple of tournaments Down Under.

The young Canadian served very big and was also returning pretty well over the last month, although Felix Auger-Aliassime will still be dealing with the disappointment of blowing a 2-0 lead over Aslan Karatsev in his Fourth Round defeat to the Qualifier at the Australian Open. There has been time to move past that loss, but Auger-Aliassime is going to have to bring his best tennis to the court to have a deep run in a loaded event.

His numbers have looked good in producing a 7-2 run which includes losing in the Final of an Australian Open warm up event. That will be encouraging to Felix Auger-Aliassime who is facing an opponent in Kei Nishikori who has struggled to hold serve in the first three matches played in 2021.

The former top 5 Ranked player has held just 54% of service games played in 2021 and that has put some intense pressure on Kei Nishikori's return game. He has won less than 35% of return points played on the hard courts over the last month and Kei Nishikori has only produced breaks in 15% of return games played, numbers that could be exposed by Felix Auger-Aliassime if he is anything near the level he has produced so far this season.

This will be a test for Auger-Aliassime, but I think he can get the better of Kei Nishikori in the First Round at Rotterdam. It is a big mark, but if the Canadian serves well, he should be able to find the breaks needed to cover the handicap on his way to the Second Round.

Marton Fucsovics-Reilly Opelka over 23.5 games: A strong run at the Australian Open will give Marton Fucsovics some confidence, but a change in the World Rankings calculations means he has had to Qualify for the main draw in Rotterdam. Two comfortable win have been enough for Fucsovics to make the main draw and he is a narrow favourite to win his First Round match.

The Hungarian will take on a big serving opponent in Reilly Opelka who is heading to Europe after an underachieving Australian summer. There will be some frustration that he was not able to see off Taylor Fritz in the Second Round at the Australian Open and it meant another early defeat to open the season.

It feels like Reilly Opelka will take over some of what we have come to expect from John Isner as he has a huge serve and a pretty limited return game. In the last two and a bit seasons Reilly Opelka has won at least 92% of the service games played on the hard courts, but his return game has been below average and that has seen him play a number of tie-breakers.

On an indoor hard court I think Reilly Opelka can push Marton Fucsovics, although the latter is serving well enough to believe he can at least rattle through his own service games.

Marton Fucsovics has held over 80% of his service games played on the hard courts this season and I do think he can at least keep on top of his American opponent in the First Round.

A mistake could be costly for either player in any set, but the feeling is that both are going to be able to get through their service games with relative comfort more often than not. Barring giving some points away to set up breaks of serve, I would not be surprised if we need a couple of tie-breakers to decide which player is able to move through to the Second Round.

Even a two set match could see this total number of games surpassed, but I would not be that surprised if a third set will be needed. I give a slight edge to Marton Fucsovics who has the superior return ability, but the total games approach looks a solid play.

Jennifer Brady - 2.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: Losing a maiden Grand Slam Final could be a tough time for any player to deal with and Jennifer Brady is going to have to dig deep to keep the momentum going. The American had a fantastic run at the Australian Open as she took full advantage of the way the draw opened up for her and Jennifer Brady has been playing like she believes she is one of the best hard court players in the world.

Last year she did play well after reaching the US Open Semi Final and Jennifer Brady reached the Semi Final of another hard court tournament played following that run. She also had a strong run in Dubai and the feeling is that Brady should enjoy the conditions in Qatar as she deals with what is going to be a new target on her back having broken through another barrier by reaching a Grand Slam Final.

In the First Round in Doha Jennifer Brady is taking on Anett Kontaveit who is a very competent hard court player and who has a big game when at her best. The serve is as big a weapon for Anett Kontaveit as it is for Jennifer Brady and it was important in taking the Estonian to the Semi Final of a warm up event for the Australian Open before making the Third Round in the first Grand Slam of 2021.

In that Round Anett Kontaveit was beaten by Shelby Rogers, another big hitting American, and it was a day in which the stronger serving was produced by Rogers. Anett Kontaveit could not really get a handle on the Rogers serve and you do have to feel that Jennifer Brady can take the racquet out of Kontaveit's hands.

The first serve in particularly is going to be key for Jennifer Brady and I think if she can put enough of those in play it is a match that she can win.

The courts tend to play pretty fast in the hot conditions you find in the Middle East at this time of the year and that should favour Jennifer Brady. As long as she has recovered emotionally from the Australian Open Final, the next two weeks should be solid ones for Brady before the Tour moves to Miami.

Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 games v Roberto Carballas Baena: There isn't much I am going to say about this match as I look for Thiago Monteiro to back up his win over Roberto Carballas Baena from Cordoba by doing the same in Buenos Aires.

Last week I picked Monteiro to cover this same mark against the Spaniard and I think he can do the same again even after the disappointing Quarter Final defeat to Juan Manuel Cerundolo. That would have hurt Thiago Monteiro, but it might make him feel a little better that his tennis is in a good place and he was only beaten by someone who went on and won the title in Cordoba.

The Quarter Final was a close one and at 26 years old it does feel like Thiago Monteiro is still improving as a player. His numbers on the clay courts in the last three seasons on both serve and return have demonstrated that improvement and he was playing well in Cordoba.

There is nothing wrong with the level that Roberto Carballas Baena can produce on the clay courts, but this has not been a good match up for him. Losing to Thiago Monteiro last week is not something that would overly concern the Spaniard on its own, but he has lost five matches to Monteiro and the last three have come without winning a set.

In fact Thiago Monteiro has won the last eight sets between the players and the wins have gotten a little more comfortable each time they have met, while all five matches have been won on the clay courts. The numbers have been skewed heavily in favour of Thiago Monteiro in the head to head with 86% of his service games held compared with Roberto Carballas Baena's 68% mark and it was more of the same when they played last week in Cordoba.

As long as Thiago Monteiro doesn't take things for granted, he can win this one too and his overall game looks too strong for Roberto Carballas Baena. With the heavy break percentage advantage in this head to head, I will look for the Brazilian to cover the handicap again.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics-Reilly Opelka Over 23.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jennifer Brady - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2021: - 13.64 Units (227.5 Units Staked, - 5.99% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 14th)

A busy week is coming to a conclusion, but Friday remains a very busy day with twenty matches scheduled across the five tournaments as we get down to the Quarter Final Round at all of the events that are being played.

The quality of matches should be pretty good throughout the day when you think most players have the confidence of wins behind them and there is a good opportunity for big Ranking points to be picked up. The tournaments are largely looking quite open having seen some of the favourites already beaten, and that also makes things interesting with some competitive looking matches out there on Friday.


The Tennis Picks through Thursday have yet to be completed at the time of writing and some of the markets for the Quarter Final matches have yet to be put together. That means I may add a couple of selections on Friday when I will update the season totals too.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Daniel Evans: The form that these two players have shown in their first two wins in Rotterdam suggests this is going to be a very good match between Gael Monfils and Daniel Evans. Both have been very deserving winners in the two wins they have put on the board, while Gael Monfils will have the additional confidence that comes from winning a title in Montpellier last week and being the defending Champion here in Rotterdam too.

That doesn't mean he is going to be able to breeze past opponents despite being a strong winner against Joao Sousa and Gilles Simon. In this Quarter Final he has to deal with the hot serving that Daniel Evans has produced as he looks to set a new career best World Ranking at the end of the tournament.

The British player has held serve in 92% of service games played here in Rotterdam so far this week and he has won well over 70% of service points played which makes it very hard to put him under pressure. However Evans is now facing Gael Monfils who has broken in more than half of the return games played and who has regularly been a solid enough returner on the Tour with his athleticism meaning he can get more balls back in play than opponents may expect.

Gael Monfils will feel there is room for improvement behind the serve, and that is going to be tested by Evans in this match. This week has been a touch more difficult for Daniel Evans when it comes to converting breaks, but in general it is a strength of his game on the hard courts and he will believe he can frustrate his opponent into errors in what looks like a good match.

Their previous meeting was narrowly won by Gael Monfils when they met a little under three years ago in Dubai. Conditions indoors are a little different, but it is surroundings in which the Frenchman has played well and it may give him enough of an edge to come away with the win.

It is hard to imagine Daniel Evans maintaining his number on the serve that he has produced so far this week, and especially not against Gael Monfils returning the ball as he has been. That might be the difference between the players with the superior returning helping Monfils through to the Semi Final and I will look for him to do enough to cover this mark.


Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: With the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas out of the running, Andrey Rublev may just be the favourite to win another title in 2020. He had a strong first month of the season and the Russian has been as strong as anyone out there on the hard courts over the last twelve months, although he is perhaps still looking for a stand out win or two.

All the youngster wants to do is continue to show signs of improvement and his numbers to open 2020 have been very, very impressive. The serve has been a potent weapon for him so far and that has been the case in the two wins recorded this week in Rotterdam as Rublev has held every service game he has played.

More impressive is the fact that he has yet to face a break point and he rightly goes into this Quarter Final as the favourite. Andrey Rublev has been winning 40% of return points and broken in 26% of return games on the hard courts in 2020, but he has improved both marks this week and his overall game looks in a perfect place.

He will be facing Filip Krajinovic who has also had a solid enough start to 2020, but the Serbian was a little fortunate to come through his Second Round match. I can't read too much into his First Round win over a local Wild Card who is Ranked at Number 172 in the World, although the win over Vasek Pospisil is more impressive considering the form of the Canadian.

In saying that I have mentioned that Krajinovic was a touch fortunate having saved eight of the nine break points faced in the Second Round. Filip Krajinovic only won five more points overall in that win over Pospisil, and his serve has simply not been as effective as the one that Andrey Rublev brings to the court.

They have split two previous meetings on the hard courts, but the more recent one saw Andrey Rublev crush Filip Krajinovic at the Davis Cup in November 2019. In that match Krajinovic struggled to get a handle on the Rublev serve, while his own was attacked with huge success for the Russian.

It might not be as comfortable as the Davis Cup win was, but I still think Andrey Rublev can get the better of Filip Krajinovic and he can cover the mark too.


Miomir Kecmanovic v Ugo Humbert: Winning a title in Auckland means Ugo Humbert has made a strong start to 2020, but he has subsequently lost in First Round matches at the Australian Open and in Montpellier. Earning a bye through to the Second Round here where Humbert crushed Marcos Giron will at least be a boost for the Frenchman, but he is facing an opponent who has looked good so far this week.

Strong serving has been what we have come to expect from Miomir Kecmanovic in the last couple of years on the hard courts and it has been no different to begin the 2020 season. This week he has held in 88% of the service games he has played and Kecmanovic has been freed up on the return of serve to really make sure he wins matches with some relative comfort.

The return of serve has been an improving part of the Kecmanovic game, although it is going to be severely tested by Ugo Humbert if he continues to perform as he has been. Coming from the lefty stance already gives Humbert some edge and he has held 86% of service games played on the hard courts in 2020.

It has allowed the Frenchman to have some freedom on the return of serve himself and it will be interesting to see which of these players can put their stamp on this match on that side of their game. In the overall numbers it is Miomir Kecmanovic who looks to have a slight advantage, but backing that up is the head to head between these two players.

They met twice in 2019, once on the grass and once on the hard courts, and it was Miomir Kecmanovic who won both matches. In the two matches combined, Kecmanovic held 94% of service games played, but it is the return numbers which have really impressed as he has restricted Ugo Humbert to holding just 63% of the service games he has played.

When they met on the hard courts seven months ago, Ugo Humbert was comfortably dismissed as he created a single break point and only won 50% of points behind serve and was broken four times.

There has been some strong performances from Ugo Humbert this year, but that head to head advantage can't be ignored. Miomir Kecmanovic has been playing well enough to back as the underdog and I think he has every chance of moving into the Semi Final if he can serve as he has been doing.


Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 games v Pedro Sousa: Any time you receive a Lucky Loser spot into the main draw of a tournament it has to feel like you are playing with 'house money'. That is how Pedro Sousa must be approaching things in Buenos Aires this week as he reached the Quarter Final but all but one of his four matches have been played against players Ranked outside the top 100.

The other was against the World Number 99 and while Thiago Monteiro has yet to crack the top 70 in the World Rankings, he is a player who has always shown considerable form when the Golden Swing heads to South America. A title win in a Challenger event was followed by an early defeat in Cordoba last week, but Monteiro has two solid looking wins here already and confidence has to be high.

So far in 2020, Monteiro has won 68% of the service points played behind serve on the clay courts and he has won 40% against the opponent's serve. Those numbers have been steady in the two wins he has had in Buenos Aires, but here Thiago Monteiro is holding in 90% of service games played and broken in 30% of return games and that includes upsetting Borna Coric in the Second Round.

Pedro Sousa rode his luck at times in his win in the Second Round, and his numbers on the clay courts have long been relatively average which is underlined by his World Ranking being down at Number 145. He was beaten early at a Challenger event on the clay and failed to win a Qualifier in Cordoba last week which suggests he has been overachieving by reaching the Quarter Final here this week.

The Portuguese player has been a lot more efficient when it comes to having break point than when facing them in the two matches in the main draw here in Buenos Aires. Even then Sousa is holding just 75% of his service games and breaking in 29% of return games during this tournament and you do feel the break point numbers are going to drop backwards.

He has saved fourteen of the last seventeen break points faced, while taking five of the eighteen he has created. Pedro Sousa will have been given some confidence by his wins, but Thiago Monteiro is playing at a higher level and I think that will see the Brazilian prove to be too good on the day.

They did meet in Rio de Janeiro last year on the clay courts and it was Monteiro who won relatively easily despite being involved in a match where breaks came thick and fast. The service games being played by Thiago Monteiro this season suggests he won't be as weak behind the serve this week and he looks a decent back to cover the line being set for this one.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Saisai Zheng - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-12, + 0.82 Units (52 Units Staked + 1.58% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 13th)

The last couple of days have been a touch frustrating as far as the Tennis Picks have been concerned and I am looking for a fightback on Thursday as the remaining Second Round matches are completed this week.

A strong Monday has been followed by disappointing Tuesday and a really poor Wednesday, but I am happy with the choices made and just needed a bit better fortunes to the selections. The worst Picks were probably from the WTA St Petersburg tournament- I should have looked past Johanna Konta until she shows she is back to full health- but largely I've been happy and a couple of moments here and there and it would have been a much better week.

I have turned around the last couple of weeks after slow starts so I am hoping this week is not going to be a reverse of those after the strong start followed by a couple of poorer days. There is still four days to go to complete the week, but I am looking for things to begin improving as soon as Thursday and put some momentum into the remainder of this week.


The remaining Second Round matches across five tournaments are set to be played on Thursday before we head into the Friday Quarter Final matches. There look to be a host of matches that are ticking the boxes for me and you can read those Tennis Picks below.


David Goffin - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: It was a very difficult match for David Goffin on Wednesday as he came from a set down to overcome home favourite Robin Haase in the First Round in Rotterdam. He had to spend virtually two and a half hours on the court to win the match and off a long week in Montpellier it may have put David Goffin in a difficult position.

Ultimately he did win and I am not sure any professional player should be exhausted after playing one long match. It is a minor factor that has to be considered especially when he is facing an opponent who has moved into the Second Round of the tournament without hitting a ball.

Jannik Sinner has plenty of eyes on his game as the 18 year old Italian looks like a star in the making on the ATP Tour. He benefited from a walkover in the First Round, but there is no doubting the kind of talent he has having produced a strong year on the hard courts in 2019.

The majority of those were at a lower level than the main ATP Tour where Sinner will still be learning. He is just 1-4 on the hard courts in 2020 and he has just had a few issues behind the serve which is going to be examined by someone like Goffin who has broken in 33% of return games played on the hard courts prior to this tournament and who managed to create ten break points in his win over Robin Haase.

It is the Jannik Sinner return which could keep him competitive as he not facing a big server in this match, but the youngster admits he is still learning and he is just 1-4 on the hard courts when playing top 50 Ranked opponents. David Goffin is someone who will give Sinner the chance to build his rhythm, but the slow start to 2020 compared with the Belgian's should give the higher Ranked player the edge.

I have every belief that Jannick Sinner is going to be a star on the ATP Tour in the years ahead, but at this moment David Goffin is perhaps a little too consistent for him. There will be moments where we see the Italian showcasing some of his talent, but I think his serve has been a little vulnerable to open 2020 and David Goffin may edge two sets here.


Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Alexander Bublik: These two players are both 22 years old and both are on their way to career best World Rankings if they can win this big Second Round match. Out of the two it is Andrey Rublev who had more expectation on his shoulders and he is moving ever closer to cracking the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time.

A 12-1 start to 2020 is helping the young Russian, and what is an ever improving serve has been the key to the successes he is having. It was the serve that dominated Nikoloz Basilashvili in the First Round and it has allowed Andrey Rublev to take one or two chances when it comes to the return of serve.

The return has been pretty steady the last couple of years on this surface and Rublev looks to have picked up from where he has left off in 2019. While those numbers have been similar in 2018, 2019 and from the small sample of 2020 matches, the serve has improve in each passing year and it has given Andrey Rublev the platform from which to dominate opponents.

Alexander Bublik was also a good First Round winner, but he did not face someone as strong as Basilashvili. The Kazakhstani has enjoyed winning records on the hard courts in each of the last four seasons, but the numbers have been largely average and he is just 4-4 on the hard courts this year.

His serve has to be respected, but Bublik has held in 80% of the games played on the hard courts. It is the reason he has not been able to win more matches because the return remains a limited part of his game and it would be a huge upset if he can pull off the win on Thursday.

Andrey Rublev has won the last two hard court matches between these players and both of those matches were played in 2019. While holding serve in 85% of service games played, Rublev has restricted Alexander Bublik to 69% in those matches and that huge edge should have produced two more comfortable wins than the Russian enjoyed.

In both matches he did produce a 6-1 set though and I think an ever improving Andrey Rublev can get into a position to win this match and cover the big line at odds against. He looks to be serving very big and the Rublev return game is decent enough on the hard courts to believe he can secure a good looking win in the Second Round.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: To take the next step in his career I think Stefanos Tsitsipas will be the first to admit that he needs to improve his return game on the hard courts. The big serve will always give him a chance to win matches, but it will be improvements made to the return of serve that will give the Greek superstar a chance to challenge the very best players and perhaps even start adding some Grand Slam titles to his collection.

On his day Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown he can compete with anybody on the ATP Tour, and his win at the ATP Finals shows the mentality of a Champion. However it was a poor Australian Open following a poor showing at the ATP Cup and Tsitsipas was in trouble in the First Round here in Rotterdam having dropped the opening set to Hubert Hurkacz and falling a break down in the second set.

His recovery was impressive, particularly the way he blunted what is a big serve and Stefanos Tsitsipas has to pick up confidence from the six breaks of serve converted. The return numbers on the hard courts over the last twelve months have not been that impressive from Stefanos Tsitsipas, but that was a rare day in which he excelled and it backed up what has largely been impressive serving.

The challenge to deal with a strong serve will be in front of Tsitsipas again on Thursday when he takes on Aljaz Bedene who upset Benoit Paire in the First Round. Aljaz Bedene is not that far below his career best World Ranking, but he has been an average hard court player and it is something of a surprise that he chose to miss the clay court swing in South America to play here instead.

Over the last twelve months Bedene has had better hard court numbers than clay court numbers though and his serve has been held in 86% of games played on the hard courts in 2020. Like his opponent, the return has held the Slovenian back and I do think whoever can get a bit more out of this side of their game will win.

Aljaz Bedene finished with a 5-4 record on the hard courts against top 50 Ranked opponents last season and that has to be respected. However it is the return aspect of his game that he has really struggled and the serve is simply not as effective as the one Stefanos Tsitsipas brings to the court.

Those service numbers have taken a significant dent when Bedene has faced top 20 and top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and I think that will be the case here. You have to respect a player that could be dangerous with the chance of Stefanos Tsitsipas recovering breaks of serve a touch difficult with his own limitations on the return, but overall he should have the better of the match.

This is an intriguing line for the match, but the game handicap is one game less than where I would have placed it and I will look for Stefanos Tsitsipas to put another strong win in the books.


Kyle Edmund - 2.5 games v Dominik Koepfer: Go back fifteen months and Kyle Edmund was close to finishing the 2018 season and was up at a career best Number 14 in the World Rankings. Over the last twelve months the British player has struggled for consistency though and that has seen him drop back outside the top 50 in the World Rankings, although the tournament in New York offers Edmund a good chance to get some momentum back behind him.

He is only 3-3 on the hard courts in 2020 having won his First Round match here in straight sets, but Kyle Edmund has to also acknowledge he has been playing at a higher level than many of the other players in the draw here. One of those is Dominik Koepfer who is the World Number 94, although he might be playing with a bit more confidence having secured a sixth win of the 2020 season when beating last year's Finalist Brayden Schnur in the First Round.

Having a lefty serve makes Koepfer a little more awkward too, although I don't think Kyle Edmund will mind having his big forehand naturally going into the Koepfer backhand. Playing first strike tennis might be key for both players, and that is where Kyle Edmund could have the edge with his experience playing at a higher level.

As good as Dominik Koepfer's hard court numbers look on first glance, it is important to note that he spends a large majority of his time on the Challenger circuit. When he has stepped up to this level he has found his serve is not quite as effective and it is an area Kyle Edmund has to expect to have another advantage.

Confidence can be a funny thing in tennis though and my one doubt comes from the fact that Edmund does not have a lot of tournaments where he has put back to back wins together. He did do that last month in Auckland though and Edmund has beaten all three opponents he has played this season Ranked outside the top 50 and he has produced some very strong serving and returning in those matches.

His numbers are significantly stronger when taking on those players he is expected to beat over the last twelve months on the hard courts compared with his overall numbers. Kyle Edmund also is going up against Dominik Koepfer who is 4-15 in matches on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and the German has only held 75% of service games and found breaks in 14% of return games in those matches.

As I have said, confidence can lead to better than expected performances, but it would be a bigger surprise than the layers think if Kyle Edmund loses, at least as far as I am concerned. Backing the Brit to reach a second Quarter Final and cover the number is the selection.

MY PICKS: David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-9, - 0.66 Units (38 Units Staked, - 1.73% Yield)