Boxing Picks 2025- Denys Berinchyk vs Keyshawn Davis (Friday 14th February)

There were not many people who believed the tagline 'The Last Dance' and it is inevitable that Derek Chisora will reach a milestone in a fiftieth fight later this year.

He was a clear winner over Otto Wallin, regardless of one of the cards submitted at the end of the Twelve Rounds fought out, and the right Decision was at least made by having Chisora's hand raised.

Three cards were brought out with faces on it- Daniel Dubois, Oleksandr Usyk and Anthony Joshua and it was clear from those left in attendance that the last of those made the most appeal if Derek Chisora is going to have one more big night in London.

Recent wins are not exactly strong enough to see Derek Chisora earn a World Title shot and especially not when someone like Martin Bakole has not been given opportunity, and it is important to match the veteran as well as possible.

You would not want to see him hurt and there is little doubt he has slowed down- Otto Wallin should be embarrassed with his own level of performance, but neither Dubois nor Usyk are likely to be as lacklustre, while guys like Bakole would want to make a statement and would be seriously dangerous.

For a long time Derek Chisora refused to even entertain fighting Anthony Joshua and there is a feeling that the latter is still convinced that his next fight could be against Tyson Fury.

And with that all in mind, it does feel like Chisora is going to be hard to be matched right in what 'should' be his last fight.

Queensberry announced three big fight nights for April and May as they prepare to take their Boxing cards onto DAZN, so there are some exciting times for Boxing fans coming up.

Boxxer also put together a rematch between Ben Whittaker and Liam Cameron, which has the easy storyline attached to it after their Royal Rumble like premature ending to the first bout.

However, the focus for most fans is on Saturday 22nd February and the next Riyadh Season card, which is loaded right up and down the card.

We are just eight days away from that big night headlined by the Undisputed rematch between Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol, but the last weekend before The Last Crescendo has some quality attached to it.

The two fight nights will be split into two threads for ease of reading, beginning with the big American card taking place in the Madison Square Garden Theater in New York City.

On Saturday the attention turns to Manchester and a top Light Welterweight contest main eventing, one that could set the winner up to call themselves Interim World Champion and potentially open the door for a huge fight later in the year.

Denys Berinchyk vs Keyshawn Davis

There was some drama ahead of this World Title fight when the Challenger accused the unbeaten Champion, or someone in his team, of sending bananas and watermelons to his address, which was taken as a racist insult.

It was all threatening to boil over, but Keyshawn Davis has since apologised to Denys Berinchyk and instead laid the blame at the door of Teofimo Lopez.

Focus on winning the World Title is now the key for Davis and not worrying too much about the antics of a World Champion operating in a higher Division and The Businessman has been able to come through his bouts even as the step up in class of opponent has been presented to him.

A crushing win over Gustavo Daniel Lemos impressed, but the opponent had come in way clear of the 135 pound limit and you do have to wonder if his motivation was where it should have been for a second big opportunity in a row.

That's not of any concern to Keyshawn Davis and the victory, and manner of victory, will have given the American a huge boost in confidence as he fights in a scheduled Twelve Rounder for the first time.

It is very important to respect Denys Berinchyk, who won the vacant World Title in a tough fight against Emmanuel Navarrete.

He upset the odds on the day in a Split Decision win, but the 36 year old is not very active and this is a big step up compared with facing a World Champion moving up in weight. Prior to that win, Denys Berinchyk had beaten the likes of Yvan Mendy and Anthony Yigit, and, again, it feels like this is a considerable step up for the Champion.

No one will doubt the toughness and Berinchyk has shown he has the motor to do the full Twelve Rounds multiple times, which gives him an experience edge over the Challenger.

In saying that, Keyshawn Davis can build up the points on the scorecards and he may end up looking to manage the fight down the stretch if it begins to look unlikely that the Stoppage can be produced. There are going to be some potentially big doors opened up for Davis if he can win the World Title and he may just need the cards to do that on Valentine's Day.

There are fighters looking for breakout performances on the undercard, but also a couple of names that Top Rank have been hyping up that are looking to bounce back from recent setbacks.

Earlier in the night, Nico Ali Walsh returns in his third straight Six Rounder since his first loss of his professional career.

But on the main card there will be plenty of eyes on Jared Anderson who returns to the ring after his crushing loss to Martin Bakole last year.

He was down early and then often in that defeat and promoter Bob Arum has made it clear that the advice given to Anderson was to look at other opponents.

However, Arum has blamed the money that was on offer and he is hoping The Real Big Baby is now listening to experience and not his bank manager as the rebuild in the Heavyweight Division begins. The standard has been set by Daniel Dubois as to how a fighter can recover from a setback in a Division where opportunities can quickly be found and Jared Anderson is expected to make relatively quick work of Marios Kollias.

The Greek Heavyweight has been beaten three times as a professional and there is nothing on his resume that suggests he has been in with someone even as close to as good as Jared Anderson could potentially be.

Prior to the loss to Martin Bakole, there has been questions around Jared Anderson's focus and he is going to have to show his desire to really compete.

In reality, this looks a fight that is set for Anderson to get right and back on track and it is expected to be a relatively short night in the office.

MY PICKS: Keyshawn Davis Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Jared Anderson to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2025: 4-13, - 8.85 Units (21 Units Staked, - 42.14% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 14th February)

Thursday proved to be a really frustrating day- there were times within each of the three Picks made where it felt the momentum was going to turn back in our favour, but ultimately all three dropped into the losing column.

Those results have erased the positive start to the week, but the weekend can still turn things back around beginning with a busy Friday filled with Quarter Final matches on the ATP Tour and the two Semi Final matches to be played in Doha.

Both of those Semi Final matches look competitive on paper and hard to call and so have not fit the selection policy for the pages, but any selections from the ATP events will be placed in this thread.

The events in Delray Beach and Buenos Aires will have markets set later so will be added, if any selections are to be made, but the focus for now will be on the Marseille Quarter Finals.

Zizou Bergs - 1.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: Some controversy was attached to Zizou Bergs' win at the Davis Cup, but he has built up some momentum and this tournament in Marseille represents a good chance to earn important World Ranking points.

Winning the tournament will be anything but easy, although Zizou Bergs has put a couple of solid wins on the board and that will have given the World Number 62 plenty of confidence.

After coming through Qualifying, Zizou Bergs reached the Final in the tournament in Auckland in the build up to the Australian Open and the two wins in Marseille will mean that the Belgian is set for a new career high World Ranking mark early next week.

He is serving very well in his two wins that have been put on the board and that has allowed Zizou Bergs to play aggressively on the return and mentally break down opponents.

Next up is World Number 52 Zhizhen Zhang who is trending back towards the career high Ranking that was set in July last year. An upset of Hubert Hurkacz in the Second Round is a huge boost for Zhizhen Zhang, but backing that up will not be easy and not on a surface on which Zhang has had struggles to find his consistency.

Much like his opponent, Zhizhen Zhang has served well so far this week and his 4-5 record on the hard courts is partly down to the difficult draws he has faced. Four of those defeats have been against opponents Ranked Number 13 or higher, while the exception is a loss to Denis Shapovalov, who has shown signs of getting back to his best tennis.

This has to be encouraging for Zhizhen Zhang, but Zizou Bergs has had a considerable edge when it comes to the return of serve.

Over the last twelve months, Zhang has an 8-8 record on the hard courts when facing opponents Ranked lower than himself and he has only broken in 17% of return games played.

When these players met in Shanghai towards the end of last season, Zizou Bergs was able to play the key points much more efficiently compared with Zhizhen Zhang. He will need to do the same here, but has shown a bit more than the World Number 52 on the return of serve and that can just see Bergs push through to another Semi Final on the Tour in 2025.

Thiago Seyboth Wild v Laslo Djere: At his best he was a comfortable top 50 Ranked player, but it has been a difficult year for Laslo Djere and the World Ranking has plummeted.

He has begun this week outside of the top 100 of the World Rankings and that meant having to Qualify for the tournament in Buenos Aires, but you have to consider the confidence boost the Serb will have given himself by putting four wins together.

The first three were comfortable, but Laslo Djere needed a final set tie-breaker to get the better of Alejandro Tabilo in the Second Round and set up this Quarter Final match.

There is nothing wrong with the numbers being produced by Laslo Djere and he has been a solid clay court competitor in his career so the surface is not going to be one that is concerning him at all. Facing a Brazilian in this Quarter Final should mean any support from the stands is very going to be heading to his side of the net and Djere will be tough to beat if he continues to back up his serve as he has all week.

With that in mind it is perhaps not a surprise that the Serb is the favourite in this Quarter Final, especially as he is facing an opponent who has also been trending in the wrong direction as far as the World Ranking goes over the last nine months.

Confidence will not have been helped by opening 2025 with three straight losses, but the Golden Swing through South America should be an opportunity for Thiago Seyboth Wild to just begin to turn things around.

He has two wins over home favourites already this week, so dealing with the crowd on Friday is not expected to be a massive problem, and one of the wins has eliminated a Seeded player from the tournament.

Like Laslo Djere, Thiago Seyboth Wild has found a way to protect his serve on a surface where it is that much more difficult to do, while he has also played the key points slightly more effectively than the Serb on the return.

This could be a key to the outcome of this Quarter Final, as will the fact that Thiago Seyboth Wild managed to beat Laslo Djere twice on the clay courts in 2024.

Previously he had lost all three matches against Djere, but was dominant behind serve and then able to get into the return games in those two wins. Both have been played since July 2024 and that mental edge could make the difference in what is expected to be a competitive, and closely fought out battle for a place in the last four and the chance to earn some vital Ranking points ahead of bigger tournaments to come.

MY PICKS: Zizou Bergs - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Thiago Seyboth Wild @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-3, - 0.43 Units (6 Units Staked, - 7.17% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 14th February)

Despite the huge amount of matches scheduled for Tuesday, an illness meant I was not able to really put in the kind of research I would want before making a Tennis Pick (even if this season has been one in which all the research in the world has meant very little to the outcomes).

There were a couple of matches that had appealed, but ultimately those failed to convince me completely and so it felt like a better idea to sit back and allow the day to move through with a bit more information always handy.

Another busy day is in the offing on Wednesday as the big tournament in Doha moves into the Third Round, while the ATP tournaments being played in Rotterdam, Delray Beach and Buenos Aires really begin to get into a roll.

In general the threads for these selections will be longer, but it cannot always be the case.

On Wednesday you can see the Picks below and any selections from Buenos Aires and Delray Beach will be added on the day.

MY PICKS: Marketa Vondrousova @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Danielle Collins - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Qinwen Zheng - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (February 14th)

I took a little time away from the Tennis Picks after the Australian Open, but there are some big tournaments to be played through the remainder of February.

This week there are five tournaments across the ATP and WTA Tours and that includes a couple of events with plenty of Ranking points attached in Dubai and Rio.

Monday is usually one of the quieter days of the week as tournaments complete Qualifiers and only a few of the First Round matches are scheduled to be played. I will add any selections from the tournaments in Rio and Delray Beach to this thread, but these will be the opening selections of the week.

Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 games v Caroline Garcia: Andy Murray once famously stated that he believed Caroline Garcia was going to be the Number 1 Singles player on the WTA Tour, but the career high World Ranking has been Number 4 for the Frenchwoman. That Ranking was earned back in September 2018, but things have been much tougher over recent months and Caroline Garcia needs a big tournament to stop the decline as she has slipped to the edge of dropping out of the top 70 of the World Rankings.

Big points are available to her in Dubai this week, but Caroline Garcia had a poor Australian summer with a single win in four Singles matches played. An early loss at the Australian Open will have really hurt when you think of the performance produced by Caroline Garcia on the day, but now she has to take on players that are going to be amongst the best on the Tour in what is regularly an important tournament in this part of the Middle East.

Soon this will be a tournament that Caroline Garcia will not be able to play in without going through the Qualifiers and it is imperative for her to produce big wins over the coming weeks before heading onto the clay courts of Europe.

Caroline Garcia could have asked for a much easier draw than facing Barbora Krejcikova in the First Round in Dubai- she will have some mental hurdles to overcome having been beaten by this opponent in Australia while winning just two games.

Losses to Madison Keys and Paula Badosa over the Australian summer don't look terrible when you think of how well both of those players are playing, but Barbora Krejcikova has increased expectations as the World Number 3 and as a Grand Slam Champion. The Czech player reached the Final in Dubai last year before really announcing herself as one of the top performers on the WTA Tour, and her numbers on the serve and return so far in 2022 are very encouraging.

It has been the return where Caroline Garcia have really struggled in her matches over the first month of the season and I expect that is going to be an issue for her here. When they met in Sydney, Barbora Krejcikova had 12 break points compared to a single one for Caroline Garcia and I do think the higher Ranked player is going to have the better of the play.

This is a big spread, but Barbora Krejcikova has covered this number of games in both her previous wins against this opponent. With a serve that is pretty decent, Barbora Krejcikova can get her teeth into the return and eventually pull away for a comfortable enough passage through to the Second Round here.

Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Alison Riske: After turning 30 in September last year and with injuries perhaps hindering some of her tennis, Simona Halep may have been at a crossroads in her career. It didn't take long for the Romanian to knuckle down and look to return to the top of the WTA Tour and the main goal for the 2022 season has to be recovering to move back inside the top 10 of the World Rankings.

Her performances in Australia certainly suggest that Simona Halep is capable of doing that in what is a wide open Tour and it was a good start to the year to reach the Australian Open Fourth Round and also win a title in Melbourne. Simona Halep will be demanding more from herself though and will believe she missed an opportunity at the first Grand Slam of the season having looked in very good form before losing to Alize Cornet.

This is a good chance for Simona Halep to keep the momentum going after producing some very strong performances already this season and looking like she is getting back to her best. The serve can sometimes be a little vulnerable, but Simona Halep has been returning really well in 2022 and has won 55% of return points already played.

That is a very impressive number and it is certainly going to be good enough to give Alison Riske plenty to think about, although the American is a hard working player that definitely gets the most out of the talent she possesses. She has regularly been an effective hard court player without pulling up trees, but Alison Riske never shies away from the challenge that is given to her from the top players on the Tour.

Alison Riske has not returned as well as she would have liked in 2022, while her serve is one that can be attacked and that is an issue for her in this match up. At least Simona Halep is unlikely to overpower Alison Riske, but the longer rallies should see the higher Ranked player come out on top enough times to move into a position to cover this spread in this First Round match.

The American has taken a set from Simona Halep in two of the three matches played between them, and their sole hard court match was very competitive. However, I think Halep has been producing the stronger tennis by some distance so far in the early weeks of the season and I think that will be enough for her to attack the Alison Riske serve and work her way to the cover of this spread.

Mikael Ymer - 1.5 games v Richard Gasquet: The 36th birthday is coming up in a few months and injuries have begun to take their toll on Richard Gasquet as he has dropped to Number 77 in the World Rankings. He clearly still has a desire to compete having taken part in a number of Challenger events to close out 2021 as the Frenchman looks to have an Indian summer to his long career.

The numbers suggest it is going to be a tough ask for Richard Gasquet to do that as his body has broken down, although he did reach the Quarter Final in Montpellier following the Australian Open.

However, that tournament was ended by Mikael Ymer who is the opponent he will face in the First Round in Marseille. The Swedish player has struggled to really bring his tennis to the full ATP Tour level, but he has made a positive start to the 2022 season and Mikael Ymer has had plenty of time to get used to the conditions in Marseille having been beaten early in Rotterdam.

He had reached the Semi Final in Montpellier before being beaten by Alexander Zverev and Mikael Ymer beat a couple of Frenchmen at that tournament, including Richard Gasquet. The return game has been hugely important for Mikael Ymer so far this season with breaks in 27% of return games played, and that has been key considering he has a vulnerable serve that opponents do look to attack.

Richard Gasquet hasn't really had the same level of success on the return as Mikael Ymer and that was the case when they met earlier this month. He has only broken in 16% of return games played and won 7% fewer return points than Ymer when these two players met in the Quarter Final in Montpellier and I am looking for Mikael Ymer to frank that form.

I do think it can be hard to trust the younger player when you think of his serve and the vulnerabilities has had on that shot, but Mikael Ymer returned well enough against Richard Gasquet in the two previous matches against him. He has won both of those in France and I think the Swede can complete the hat-trick by seeing off the veteran in the First Round.

When Mikael Ymer has won, he has tended to do so by a good margin and I think he can do that here. Richard Gasquet can give him opponent something to think about with the adjustments he is likely to make, but that may not be enough and I will look for the favourite to move through.

MY PICKS: Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mikael Ymer - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2021 (February 14th)

We are into the second week at the Australian Open and on Day 7 the Fourth Round begins of both Singles tournaments.

There look to be some very good matches out there, although most eyes may be on the final match on Rod Laver Arena and wondering whether Novak Djokovic will be ready to compete after the injury picked up in the Third Round. He has a tough match anyway, but it would be much tougher if he is hindered, while plenty of other matches bring intrigue in both Singles draws.

Felix Auger-Aliassime-Aslan Karatsev over 36.5 games: A place in the second week of a Grand Slam is never easily secured, but both Felix Auger-Aliassime and Aslan Karatsev must be wondering what the fuss is about. Both have not only worked their way into the Fourth Round, but they have dominated opponents with all three wins coming in straight sets and rarely being taxed in sets let alone matches.

As the competition has ramped up they have had it a little more difficult, but that has to be expected and even then Felix Auger-Aliassime and Aslan Karatsev can both point to wins over higher Ranked opponents as the underdog to back up their belief. The performances in Melbourne are almost certainly going to lead to both of these players hitting career best World Rankings fairly shortly and there is going to be plenty of confidence on display.

On the face of things you have to make Felix Auger-Aliassime a big favourite having already beaten two opponents Ranked outside the top 100 as Aslan Karatsev is. Add in the fact that the Canadian is a top 20 Ranked player and reached the Final of one of the warm up events run by Tennis Australia for the Open and you have to think he is going to have too much.

However Aslan Karatsev had a strong run after lockdown and is clearly being motivated by Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev who have both spoken highly about him. He might be Ranked outside the top 100, but Karatsev has played way above that level in winning three Qualifiers in Dubai and following on with three main draw wins here, and the numbers back him up.

The Russian has wins over three top 100 opponents on his way to the Fourth Round and even beat a top tenner in Diego Sebastian Schwartzman comfortably in the Third Round as he showed very little nerves or feelings of being out of his depth. His serve has proved to be a big weapon in the draw on the faster surface laid down at Melbourne Park and it has allowed Aslan Karatsev to tee off on the return to good effect.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has also served very well and both of these players are holding at least 93% of their service games played in the tournament. Like his opponent, Auger-Aliassime has been able to take more risks in the return game knowing the serve is producing the goods and he has also been breaking at a high rate (in 41% of return games compared to Karatsev's 52% mark).

These two have met twice before in Challenger events and they are at 1-1 with both matches played on hard courts. The more recent win came for Aslan Karatsev two years ago, but Felix Auger-Aliassime will feel he is a much improved player from that last match and I do expect him to get the better of this Fourth Round match.

However I am also expecting it to be highly competitive between two players serving exceptionally well and also returning very effectively. With that in mind I would be surprised if either player is blown off the court and I expect to see at least four sets being needed to decide the winner.

My edge is with Felix Auger-Aliassime, but I can't rule out Aslan Karatsev either and instead the focus is on the two players doing enough to cover the total games line. As long as the match goes four sets as I expect, I would expect them to do that with a tie-breaker or two helping put the match in a position to do so.

Dominic Thiem-Grigor Dimitrov over 38.5 games: It was the fourth time in his career that Dominic Thiem has come from 0-2 down to win a Grand Slam match and he broke the hearts of the home fans when seeing off Nick Kyrgios in the Third Round. There won't be any fans on Day 7 at the Australian Open and Dominic Thiem is facing a well rested opponent, but the the previous three times he has come from 0-2 down to win a best of five set Slam match the Austrian has won in straight sets in the next Round when having another match (the last time Dominic Thiem came from 0-2 down was in the US Open Final so he didn't have another match to play).

No one will doubt the physical capabilities of Thiem, while he was dominant in the win over Nick Krygios from the moment he saved some break points at the start of the third set. His numbers have been solid in this tournament overall as Dominic Thiem has held 90% of his service games played, while he is performing well enough on the return to keep the pressure on opponents.

He will need it all when he gets ready to face Grigor Dimitrov who was able to move through to the Fourth Round thanks to an early retirement from Pablo Carreno Busta. The Bulgarian has actually played well in the Australian Open anyway and might have won that match, but spending little time on court means Dimitrov should be the fresher player having won every set he has played in the tournament so far.

These two haven't met on the Tour since the end of the 2019 season, but Grigor Dimitrov will be boosted by the 3-2 head to head advantage he has- that becomes 3-1 when only considering their hard court matches, although Dominic Thiem becoming a Grand Slam Champion and a Grand Slam Finalist here should mean those matches provide little inferiority complex for the higher Ranked player.

Even then it will be a difficult match if Dimitrov is playing to the kind of level he has produced so far at the Australian Open having been broken once in the tournament. Grigor Dimitrov is winning 74% of points behind serve and will be looking to keep the pressure on Dominic Thiem by making sure he doesn't give too much away.

His returning numbers have been superior to Thiem's in the tournament, but not by that much and Dimitrov has not played someone who can serve as big as Nick Kyrgios can.

The head to head has been in favour of Dimtrov, but the numbers on the hard courts have been tight and I do think Dominic Thiem is considerably stronger now. That should see the US Open Champion come out on top, but I think it may need four sets to do that and we should see the players produce enough behind their serves to at least see the match go longer than the total games line may suggest.

Conditions in Melbourne should allow both players to get through some of their service games pretty quickly, and I can see at least one tie-breaker being needed which will put the match well on the way to surpassing the total set. My feeling is that Dominic Thiem will get the job done in four sets, but that may be enough for the cover.

Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: Seeing Dusan Lajovic in front of him might make Alexander Zverev a little nervous, but I think he will be glad this is a match that is not being played on the clay courts of the French Open. These two have met twice at Roland Garros and both times the match has gone into a fourth hour and needed five sets to separate them, although Zverev has the mental edge having won both.

Conditions in Melbourne are significantly different than what we would see in Paris and Alexander Zverev has looked in imperious form. His run to the US Open Final last season would have given confidence, although I wasn't sure the German would recover very quickly from blowing a 2-0 lead in sets in the Final against Dominic Thiem.

Instead it has seemingly been a source of motivation for Alexander Zverev and he has to like his chances to come through the top half of the draw with doubts about the Novak Djokovic fitness and Dominic Thiem already being pushed to five sets once in the draw. After dropping the opening set of the 2021 Australian Open, Alexander Zverev has not only won nine sets in a row, but he has looked extremely strong in doing so.

There have been questions about the Zverev serve, the second in particular, but he has held 96% of service games played in this tournament and is winning almost 77% of points played. Those are remarkable numbers and only being backed up by breaking in just under 32% of return games played and it makes Alexander Zverev a really dangerous contender for the title.

Dusan Lajovic won't be intimidated having pushed this opponent to five sets in their two previous meetings which have both come at Grand Slam level, but I also think it has to be noted that this is a player who has been stronger on the clay than the hard courts. He has not beaten anyone Ranked higher than Number 45 at the Australian Open over the last week and the first two opponents created 31 break points against him.

He had his best returning game in the Third Round, but it feels a massive challenge taking on the Alexander Zverev serve on the form we have seen. I expect that is going to be felt by Dusan Lajovic over the course of the match, and the Serb has also spent double the time on the court compared with Alexander Zverev which could eventually be a part of the story of the match.

At the moment Alexander Zverev looks in much stronger form than Dusan Lajovic and he is more comfortable on the surface and the conditions we have seen in Melbourne. The serving difference should be clear on the day and I think Zverev can ease his way through another Round with bigger matches to come.

Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: Two multiple time Grand Slam Champions will be looking at the way the Woman's draw is shaping up at the Australian Open and really feel they can go all the way in 2021... But they will also appreciate the size of the task in front of them to even make the Quarter Final.

Both Naomi Osaka and Garbine Muguruza have been in fine form through the first three Rounds of the Australian Open and they have backed up strong showings in the warm up events in preparation for this tournament. Those warm up events were played at Melbourne Park too and I think that underlines the confidence and form both will feel they have ahead of a big Fourth Round match.

Being multiple time Grand Slam Champions gives players a confidence of its own, but Naomi Osaka has seemingly been the much happier on the hard courts. Her Slam wins have come at the US Open and Australian Open, while Garbine Muguruza's successes have been at the French Open and Wimbledon, and I think that is a telling factor even if the Spaniard was a Finalist here last year.

The serve is going to be the most important shot of the day with both Osaka and Muguruza producing some huge numbers behind that shot in the tournament. The edge has to be given to Naomi Osaka and I also would add in the fact that she has been performing at a higher level than Garbine Muguruza in this tournament, even though Osaka has faced the tougher level of opponent too.

Garbine Muguruza has yet to beat a player Ranked better than World Number 83 in this tournament and the pre-tournament defeat to Ashleigh Barty suggests she could find it tough to deal with the level that Osaka is going to be bring to the court. The run to the Final here in Melbourne last year will have given Muguruza some belief and she has been a player that can be hard to stop when she picks up the kind of momentum she has in this tournament, but the Spaniard is just 4-5 against top 10 players on the hard court Grand Slams.

That was 2-5 before the wins over Elina Svitolina, Kiki Bertens and Simona Halep here last year, but Naomi Osaka's confidence looks to be in a really strong place. With both players having similar successes returning the ball, I think the Naomi Osaka serve is the difference on the day in the conditions at Melbourne Park and I will look for her to produce another big victory here.

It can be argued that Naomi Osaka isn't just the best hard court player in the world, but the best player full stop and I think she will be able to earn the breaks to cover this mark.

Su-Wei Hsieh-Marketa Vondrousova over 20.5 games: Playing Su-Wei Hsieh for the first time can be something of a shock for players with the throwback game not one you see very often on the Tour these days. For the third time in her Singles career Hsieh has reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open and she fought through a very difficult third set against fellow veteran Sara Errani to earn her place in the second week.

Some big names have been beaten by Su-Wei Hsieh at the Australian Open over the years and she will be looking to add another one on Day 7 when taking on the former French Open Finalist Marketa Vondrousova. However, the Czech lefty will have had the benefit of facing Hsieh last month in Abu Dhabi and the narrow three set loss might stand Vondrousova in good stead when it comes to what to accept in this one.

Marketa Vondrousova looks to be improving as she quietly moves through the draw and her numbers have been stronger in each of the last three Rounds. She may feel she needs to improve again if she is going to reach the Quarter Final here and much will depend on how well Vondrousova can look after her serve.

Her return is certainly going to give Su-Wei Hsieh some problems, but I expect the lower Ranked player to also have similar successes with her return being a stronger aspect of her game than her own serve.

Both should have moments where they get on top of the return and both are also going to have some issues looking after the serve, especially if you think of the way the match between them went last month. The two players combined for fourteen breaks that day, seven each, and needed a final set tie-breaker to separate them on the day, although Su-Wei Hsieh had the edge on the day.

Having played her once, I think Marketa Vondrousova will be able to turn the tables in this one although this may be another long match. I think the breaks of serve could see at least one set being largely uncompetitive, but it would not be a huge surprise if we need to go the distance to decide the winner again and the total games mark looks a touch low here.

The two players have only dropped a set each in the tournament so far, but I think Su-Wei Hsieh and Marketa Vondrousova can challenge one another to the point that the total games are surpassed. The underdog with the games was a little appealing, but it also would not be a surprise if the final set runs away from the losing player which makes those games less important than looking for the total games to be covered instead.

Serena Williams v Aryna Sabalenka: It hasn't been often that you could back Serena Williams to win a Grand Slam match at odds against, and even rarer to be able to do that before the Quarter Final, but that is the case on Day 7 at the Australian Open. She takes on Aryna Sabalenka who has backed up her really strong end to the 2020 season by looking incredibly sharp to open 2021 too.

The Belarusian has taken over from Victoria Azarenka as the top player from that nation, but there is pressure on Sabalenka who has never been beyond the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam. Beating arguably the greatest woman's player of all time to do so only adds to that pressure and there will be plenty of big hitting coming back her way in this one.

Strong serving has helped Aryna Sabalenka negotiate her way through the draw without dropping a set and she has only faced four break points in each match so far. It has not been easy to break the serve and it has allowed Sabalenka to kick on and power her returns to move into winning positions in matches.

All of those aspects will be challenged by Serena Williams who was not at her best in the Third Round, but who has been looking in good shape in the three matches played in Melbourne this year. The former World Number 1 is still looking to match Margaret Court's record for Singles Slams won, and the Serena Williams first serve could be key to the outcome of this match having won 80% of those points in the tournament so far.

That is a considerably higher mark than Aryna Sabalenka has been able to produce, but the Belarusian has the superior second serve numbers and the key for Serena Williams is making sure she gets plenty of first serves in play. The American has been returning well and she has looked in good health having not played the Semi Final against Ashleigh Barty in the warm up event for the first Grand Slam of the season.

It feels like the player who serves the best on the day will be able to win this one, but the experience edge is with Serena Williams and I think that is going to be the factor that determines the outcome of this one. Aryna Sabalenka has admitted that she wants to be calmer on the court, but this will be a real test of that demeanour and in a tough match it could see her just become a little addled at times.

Serena Williams has had the better returning numbers in the tournament and I will back her in a rare spot as an underdog to win this match.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime-Aslan Karatsev Over 36.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dominic Thiem-Grigor Dimitrov Over 38.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Su-Wei Hsieh-Marketa Vondrousova Over 20.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Serena Williams @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 34-31, - 2.44 Units (130 Units Staked, - 1.88% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 14th)

A busy week is coming to a conclusion, but Friday remains a very busy day with twenty matches scheduled across the five tournaments as we get down to the Quarter Final Round at all of the events that are being played.

The quality of matches should be pretty good throughout the day when you think most players have the confidence of wins behind them and there is a good opportunity for big Ranking points to be picked up. The tournaments are largely looking quite open having seen some of the favourites already beaten, and that also makes things interesting with some competitive looking matches out there on Friday.


The Tennis Picks through Thursday have yet to be completed at the time of writing and some of the markets for the Quarter Final matches have yet to be put together. That means I may add a couple of selections on Friday when I will update the season totals too.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Daniel Evans: The form that these two players have shown in their first two wins in Rotterdam suggests this is going to be a very good match between Gael Monfils and Daniel Evans. Both have been very deserving winners in the two wins they have put on the board, while Gael Monfils will have the additional confidence that comes from winning a title in Montpellier last week and being the defending Champion here in Rotterdam too.

That doesn't mean he is going to be able to breeze past opponents despite being a strong winner against Joao Sousa and Gilles Simon. In this Quarter Final he has to deal with the hot serving that Daniel Evans has produced as he looks to set a new career best World Ranking at the end of the tournament.

The British player has held serve in 92% of service games played here in Rotterdam so far this week and he has won well over 70% of service points played which makes it very hard to put him under pressure. However Evans is now facing Gael Monfils who has broken in more than half of the return games played and who has regularly been a solid enough returner on the Tour with his athleticism meaning he can get more balls back in play than opponents may expect.

Gael Monfils will feel there is room for improvement behind the serve, and that is going to be tested by Evans in this match. This week has been a touch more difficult for Daniel Evans when it comes to converting breaks, but in general it is a strength of his game on the hard courts and he will believe he can frustrate his opponent into errors in what looks like a good match.

Their previous meeting was narrowly won by Gael Monfils when they met a little under three years ago in Dubai. Conditions indoors are a little different, but it is surroundings in which the Frenchman has played well and it may give him enough of an edge to come away with the win.

It is hard to imagine Daniel Evans maintaining his number on the serve that he has produced so far this week, and especially not against Gael Monfils returning the ball as he has been. That might be the difference between the players with the superior returning helping Monfils through to the Semi Final and I will look for him to do enough to cover this mark.


Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: With the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas out of the running, Andrey Rublev may just be the favourite to win another title in 2020. He had a strong first month of the season and the Russian has been as strong as anyone out there on the hard courts over the last twelve months, although he is perhaps still looking for a stand out win or two.

All the youngster wants to do is continue to show signs of improvement and his numbers to open 2020 have been very, very impressive. The serve has been a potent weapon for him so far and that has been the case in the two wins recorded this week in Rotterdam as Rublev has held every service game he has played.

More impressive is the fact that he has yet to face a break point and he rightly goes into this Quarter Final as the favourite. Andrey Rublev has been winning 40% of return points and broken in 26% of return games on the hard courts in 2020, but he has improved both marks this week and his overall game looks in a perfect place.

He will be facing Filip Krajinovic who has also had a solid enough start to 2020, but the Serbian was a little fortunate to come through his Second Round match. I can't read too much into his First Round win over a local Wild Card who is Ranked at Number 172 in the World, although the win over Vasek Pospisil is more impressive considering the form of the Canadian.

In saying that I have mentioned that Krajinovic was a touch fortunate having saved eight of the nine break points faced in the Second Round. Filip Krajinovic only won five more points overall in that win over Pospisil, and his serve has simply not been as effective as the one that Andrey Rublev brings to the court.

They have split two previous meetings on the hard courts, but the more recent one saw Andrey Rublev crush Filip Krajinovic at the Davis Cup in November 2019. In that match Krajinovic struggled to get a handle on the Rublev serve, while his own was attacked with huge success for the Russian.

It might not be as comfortable as the Davis Cup win was, but I still think Andrey Rublev can get the better of Filip Krajinovic and he can cover the mark too.


Miomir Kecmanovic v Ugo Humbert: Winning a title in Auckland means Ugo Humbert has made a strong start to 2020, but he has subsequently lost in First Round matches at the Australian Open and in Montpellier. Earning a bye through to the Second Round here where Humbert crushed Marcos Giron will at least be a boost for the Frenchman, but he is facing an opponent who has looked good so far this week.

Strong serving has been what we have come to expect from Miomir Kecmanovic in the last couple of years on the hard courts and it has been no different to begin the 2020 season. This week he has held in 88% of the service games he has played and Kecmanovic has been freed up on the return of serve to really make sure he wins matches with some relative comfort.

The return of serve has been an improving part of the Kecmanovic game, although it is going to be severely tested by Ugo Humbert if he continues to perform as he has been. Coming from the lefty stance already gives Humbert some edge and he has held 86% of service games played on the hard courts in 2020.

It has allowed the Frenchman to have some freedom on the return of serve himself and it will be interesting to see which of these players can put their stamp on this match on that side of their game. In the overall numbers it is Miomir Kecmanovic who looks to have a slight advantage, but backing that up is the head to head between these two players.

They met twice in 2019, once on the grass and once on the hard courts, and it was Miomir Kecmanovic who won both matches. In the two matches combined, Kecmanovic held 94% of service games played, but it is the return numbers which have really impressed as he has restricted Ugo Humbert to holding just 63% of the service games he has played.

When they met on the hard courts seven months ago, Ugo Humbert was comfortably dismissed as he created a single break point and only won 50% of points behind serve and was broken four times.

There has been some strong performances from Ugo Humbert this year, but that head to head advantage can't be ignored. Miomir Kecmanovic has been playing well enough to back as the underdog and I think he has every chance of moving into the Semi Final if he can serve as he has been doing.


Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 games v Pedro Sousa: Any time you receive a Lucky Loser spot into the main draw of a tournament it has to feel like you are playing with 'house money'. That is how Pedro Sousa must be approaching things in Buenos Aires this week as he reached the Quarter Final but all but one of his four matches have been played against players Ranked outside the top 100.

The other was against the World Number 99 and while Thiago Monteiro has yet to crack the top 70 in the World Rankings, he is a player who has always shown considerable form when the Golden Swing heads to South America. A title win in a Challenger event was followed by an early defeat in Cordoba last week, but Monteiro has two solid looking wins here already and confidence has to be high.

So far in 2020, Monteiro has won 68% of the service points played behind serve on the clay courts and he has won 40% against the opponent's serve. Those numbers have been steady in the two wins he has had in Buenos Aires, but here Thiago Monteiro is holding in 90% of service games played and broken in 30% of return games and that includes upsetting Borna Coric in the Second Round.

Pedro Sousa rode his luck at times in his win in the Second Round, and his numbers on the clay courts have long been relatively average which is underlined by his World Ranking being down at Number 145. He was beaten early at a Challenger event on the clay and failed to win a Qualifier in Cordoba last week which suggests he has been overachieving by reaching the Quarter Final here this week.

The Portuguese player has been a lot more efficient when it comes to having break point than when facing them in the two matches in the main draw here in Buenos Aires. Even then Sousa is holding just 75% of his service games and breaking in 29% of return games during this tournament and you do feel the break point numbers are going to drop backwards.

He has saved fourteen of the last seventeen break points faced, while taking five of the eighteen he has created. Pedro Sousa will have been given some confidence by his wins, but Thiago Monteiro is playing at a higher level and I think that will see the Brazilian prove to be too good on the day.

They did meet in Rio de Janeiro last year on the clay courts and it was Monteiro who won relatively easily despite being involved in a match where breaks came thick and fast. The service games being played by Thiago Monteiro this season suggests he won't be as weak behind the serve this week and he looks a decent back to cover the line being set for this one.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Saisai Zheng - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-12, + 0.82 Units (52 Units Staked + 1.58% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 14th)

On Valentine's Day we move into the Second Round of the various tournaments being played this week, although the WTA Doha event will be into the Quarter Final Round as those tournaments in the Middle East finish on Saturday rather than Sunday,

It has been a busier week than expected with a number of matches fitting the criteria I have just adjusted over the last nine months and the results have been very rewarding in that time. This time twelve months ago it was another season that had started poorly after back to back poor seasons making Tennis Picks.

Prior to that I had a number of winning years in succession, but I hadn't made the adjustments while things were going well and was punished for it. Taking the time away from making Picks last March was a key moment for me to evolve and the results came after that as I went through a couple of months of trial and error with the selections.

This has been another strong week and I have to be pleased that I have had all winning weeks to open the 2019 season after a very good end to 2018 made sure that season ended with a positive record. There is still some work to do to make sure this week follows suit, although I do recognise in a long season there are going to be some downward moments and trying to avoid a prolonged negative run is always the key in an eleven month season.


The Second Round matches in the ATP events being played this week tend to be split over Wednesday and Thursday so the the rest of the Quarter Final line up will be put together during the course of the day. In Doha the WTA event will have the Quarter Final matches set to be played on Thursday after a very busy start to the week and you can read my analysis of some of the Picks and see the full selection from the day below.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Maximilian Marterer: Any time a player is about to play their first match on a new surface you do have to wonder how they are going to feel about making the adjustment from one surface to another and whether they will be comfortable doing that. For someone like Dominic Thiem I have to believe the move off the hard courts and onto the clay courts is a time that he really looks forward to and to the extent that he would rather play on the Golden Swing in South America than the indoor hard court tournaments that take place in Europe.

The Austrian has actually won his first clay court event played in each of the last three seasons and that includes two titles in Buenos Aires so I am not going to worry about Thiem too much. Outside of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal I think Thiem has been the best clay courter in the world for the last couple of years and he is a very tough customer to knock off on this surface.

On the clay most people do have their service numbers knocked, but Thiem has improved his hold percentage on the surface in each of the last three seasons. It has always been relatively strong to be honest, but in 2018 he ticked that percentage up to 85% from just under 84% and Thiem is unlikely to be threatened too much by the return of Maximilian Marterer.

Marterer has won a match in the main draw in Buenos Aires having lost in the First Round in Cordoba and he really came to the fore with his run to the French Open Fourth Round last year before he was beaten in straight sets by Rafael Nadal. The German has played his best tennis on the clay courts but his numbers show a hold percentage that is significantly down on what Thiem has produced and many of those matches to influence those numbers have come below the main ATP level.

The real difference between the two players has been the pressure they have been able to exert from the return of serve. Marterer has a break percentage of sub-20%, but Thiem is right up there with some of the most impactful returners on the clay courts as he has broken serve at 30% over the last two years as he has moved to a level behind the elite clay courters like Nadal and Djokovic.

It also has not be noted that Marterer's hold number falls to 68% on the clay courts when he has faced top 50 Ranked opponents and that is despite coming away with a 3-5 record from those eight career matches. I expect Dominic Thiem to need a little time to remind him of the feel of being on a clay court, but once he does that I think the return of serve is going to be the key for him to cover a big number against an opponent who simply may not offer enough resistance to Thiem's own serve to stay with him.


Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: This was never going to be a match in which I was going to be backing someone because I thought the layers would potentially over-rate Pablo Cuevas from the number I had for him. Imagine my surprise to see that the Uruguayan is actually laying fewer games than I had predicted for this Second Round match in Buenos Aires and he has an excellent chance of beating Joao Sousa on Thursday.

It is something of a surprise to see Sousa over in South America for the clay court swing considering he has a pretty decent indoor hard court record. Usually this Golden Swing has not been a part of his schedule although he did take it in in 2017 when reaching the Quarter Final in Buenos Aires and then the Semi Final in Sao Paolo.

Joao Sousa has beaten the Cordoba Champion in the First Round which will give him a boost in confidence, but the level goes up another notch here when you have to imagine Juan Ignacio Londero was perhaps a little fatigued physically and emotionally. The Portuguese player does produce some steady numbers on the clay courts, but he will need to be better than that to down Cuevas who loves playing on the South American clay courts.

He reached the Semi Final in Cordoba last week before having to play two matches in one day to make the Final and it was not a big surprise that Cuevas was unable to beat Guido Pella who had been resting. However he produced a solid week there and his record on the clay courts shows a player who has a strong serve and can do enough on the return to beat those players further down the Rankings.

The Cuevas serve has been working very effectively in the small sample of 2019 matches, but in general he has a hold percentage in the low-80s in recent seasons compared with Sousa's in the mid-70s. It might not look a big difference but tennis is all about very small margins and with a similar level of returns I do think Cuevas could have easily been favoured to cover at least one more game in this handicap.

Some will point to Sousa's 3-2 lead on the head to head, but their only two matches on the clay courts have both resulted in wins for Cuevas. In both of those clay court matches Cuevas has dominated with a 94% hold advantage compared with Sousa's 50% mark although those were played in 2014 and 2017.

Both were in Europe though where Cuevas has not been as comfortable as he has on his own continent and I think he is going to be the stronger player in this one. The serving should give him the advantage through much of the match and he can cover this number in a win over a solid, but not spectacular clay courter in Joao Sousa.


Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Barbora Strycova: The early weeks of the 2019 season have been all or nothing from Angelique Kerber on the hard courts. She has either won her matches very easily or she has been beaten without putting up much of a fight and that continued in her opening match in Doha when Kerber was able to beat Anett Kontaveit 6-1, 7-6.

The German now has a 5-2 record on the hard courts in 2019 and all five wins have come by a margin of five or more games while both losses have seen Kerber fail to win more than five games.

Over the years Kerber has produced some of her best tennis on the hard courts, but she is a player whose serve can be vulnerable which leaves her open to the heavy losses she has suffered on the surface. What has kept Kerber very competitive is her returning ability and that is going to be key for her when she faces Barbora Strycova in this Quarter Final.

Angelique Kerber has dominated Strycova in their head to head matches and she has won all six matches played on the hard courts. The last of those came twelve months ago in Dubai and Kerber has dominated the Strycova serve in those previous games which has put her in a position to not only win matches, but win matches by a convincing margin.

The opening of the 2019 season has been mixed for Strycova on the hard courts in terms of results and you can't read a lot into her numbers because of the way her draws have panned out. Here in Doha she has beaten a local player who received a Wild Card into the main draw and then was victorious over Anna Blinkova in three sets despite winning both of her sets without losing a game.

Erratic form has been a feature of Barbora Strycova's play since she reached her best World Ranking of Number 16 a little over two years ago. Last year she had a mixed record on the hard courts as Strycova struggled to get enough out of her return of serve and I think that could be a potential problem for her in this one despite facing a relatively weak serve from Kerber.

Barbora Strycova also had a poor 0-6 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2018. In those matches her numbers took a significant decline in terms of percentage of points won behind the first serve, second serve and return of serve and I do think Kerber is going to be the player who finds more break points in this Quarter Final.

With the record that Strycova has against Kerber I think the latter is going to be good enough to cover this number in a victory.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-4, + 12.60 Units (30 Units Staked, + 42% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 14th)

There may have been a host of tennis matches to be played on Tuesday, but so many seemed to be tight on the handicaps that it was too difficult to find any angles I really liked.

A part of that may be down to me wanting to be a little more careful with my selections after having some really 'hard luck' losses where players have not covered from really strong positions.

It happened on Monday as Federico Delbonis served for a routine 7-6, 6-3 win to cover a 3.5 game handicap- he was broken to love after playing four terrible points and then broke in the next game to win the match 7-6, 6-4 and it is one of those situations which frustrates more than anything else.

Add in the way some of the Saturday selections went down and it has just made me second guess some of my selections- ultimately I look at the way those picks went down and I can say they were the 'right' picks which will win more often than not barring some really unfortunate endings to matches.


On Wednesday it is another busy day of tennis with the WTA tournament in Doha particularly long as they complete the majority of the Second Round matches in one day. With the Final set for Saturday, that tournament will have a lot of matches scheduled early in the week, but I haven't found any picks of real interest even with some of the top names on the WTA Tour in action.

Any picks from Buenos Aires and New York will be added to this thread on Wednesday morning.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Victor Troicki: He may not be the force he once was, but Tomas Berdych is in a better place than his similarly declining opponent Victor Troicki.

The numbers back that up with Berdych still possessing the superior serve and return game although Troicki has to be respected as someone who can produce big tennis when he is completely focused.

However Troicki has always been a player that the top players should be comfortable playing against. When he serves well he can be tough, but Troicki is also just as likely to throw in a couple of sloppy service games which can allow Berdych to take control of this match.

Berdych beat Mischa Zverev fairly comfortably after a slow start in his First Round match in Rotterdam and he has dominated the head to head against Troicki. Hopefully he doesn't make as slow a start as Monday and avoiding that should mean Berdych is able to come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win in this Second Round match.


Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Ruben Bemelmans: The World Number 1 position could be back in the hands of Roger Federer at the end of the tournament in Rotterdam and his taking a Wild Card into the event should mean motivation is high.

There were a couple of really poor results for Federer in what was otherwise a dominant 2017 and my only concern is that the former World Number 1 is not as strong when it comes to the break points in this match as he could be. Otherwise you have to think Federer is going to be far too good for Ruben Bemelmans.

Bemelmans has come through the Qualifiers which can build confidence, but Federer's numbers on the hard courts have been really impressive in recent months and I can't see how the Belgian can challenge him.

The Bemelmans serve is not as dominant as the Federer one and he won't get as many break point opportunities as the latter.

If Federer finds his form early, he should be good enough to win this match and clear the big handicap that is in front of him.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.4 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.14% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (February 13-15)

The Champions League and Europa League Knock Out Rounds begin this week and that means the excitement level for the fans begins to raise.

Many of the fans of the English clubs have to feel confident of their chances to go deep in both competitions especially as the Europa League has taken on a new importance for Arsenal now they are looking off the pace of the top four in the Premier League.

The five English clubs in the Champions League will all feel they have winnable ties, although the most vulnerable looks to be Chelsea when they face Barcelona having hit a poor patch of form at just the wrong time.


Before the Weekend Football Picks post I will have my latest 'United Corner' focusing on recent poor performances and a lack of direction that Manchester United have seemingly had when going forward. That should be posted by Thursday ahead of three huge games for United to end February.


Basel v Manchester City Pick: The Champions League Second Round has put together some very interesting ties, but this is perhaps one of the least appealing ones.

Much of that is down to the fact that it feels like a mismatch and I think it would be a big surprise if Manchester City are not able to beat Basel over two Legs.

The First Leg has a few more question marks attached with Basel hosting the game and Manchester City just not looking at their dominant best away from home in recent Premier League games. However Basel's own form has not been that convincing and some changes in the January transfer window will take time to blend in with the rest of the squad.

Basel have speed which can be a big factor against Manchester City on the counter attack, but containing this City attack is a big ask.

Some are taking confidence from the 1-0 win over Manchester United here in the Group Stage, but Manchester United created many chances in that fixture. Unlike United, Manchester City are playing with a lot more confidence in the final third and have a striker in Sergio Aguero who is in stunning form in front of goal.

Manchester City scored four times in wins over Feyenoord and Napoli in the Group Stage and I think a strong team will begin here and put Pep Guardiola's team in a position where they will feel they have more than one foot into the Quarter Final. While Basel can cause some problems, I think they are going to really have problems keeping Manchester City out at the other end and I am expecting the Premier League leaders to win by a healthy margin on Tuesday.

There is a pressure that comes with Knock Out football, but this is a Manchester City team with experience of playing in these Rounds even if they have not been as successful as they would have liked in recent years. However confidence is high in the Manchester City camp and I think they win by a couple of goals, at least, on the night.


Juventus v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is one of the better looking Second Round ties in the Champions League and I would be surprised if there isn't everything to play for when Juventus and Tottenham Hotspur meet at Wembley Stadium in the Second Leg next month.

The First Leg has the makings of a tight contest with Juventus in stunning form, while Tottenham Hotspur have beaten both Manchester United and Arsenal and drawn with Liverpool in their last 3 Premier League games. Those results will have given Tottenham Hotspur a big shot of confidence as they head into more big games and it perhaps has raised some questions as to the outcome of this match.

One of the big criticisms of Tottenham Hotspur have been performances in big games, but those results coupled with the 1-1 draw in Real Madrid and 1-2 win in Borussia Dortmund shows what they are capable of. They did have to ride their luck a little bit in Madrid though and Tottenham Hotspur have tended to be a little more vulnerable on their travels against the top teams.

While they deserved their draw at Anfield ten days ago, Tottenham Hotspur have lost pretty comfortably at Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City in the Premier League.

I do think they will have to ride out some rough patches to earn a positive result here especially with the way Juventus have been playing.

8 consecutive clean sheets at home in all competitions and 11 straight wins in all competitions overall means Juventus are coming in with plenty of form of their own. Serie A is the priority for the club and Juventus are in a real battle back home against Napoli, but this is a team who have plenty of momentum behind them and I think that is going to lead to a narrow lead from the First Leg.

Odds against quotes for a Juventus win look too big as far as I am concerned especially when you think of how Tottenham Hotspur have tended to play away from home in 'big' games. I do think Spurs can be tough to break down defensively which will give them a chance in this First Leg, and the likes of Christian Eriksen and Harry Kane will pose a threat to Juventus too.

However home advantage should be a key difference maker in this match and I do like Juventus to come out with a narrow advantage. It is a bigger price than I anticipated for the Juventus win and I think they are worth backing at odds against to come out with the lead.


Porto v Liverpool Pick: You have to feel this First Leg is vital for Porto if they have real ambitions of beating Liverpool in the Champions League Second Round. This has notoriously been a difficult ground for teams from England to visit and Porto have to believe they need a lead to take to Anfield next month in the Second Leg.

Confidence shouldn't be a problem for Porto who have a long unbeaten record to protect and who have won their last 8 home games in all competitions. They have won 4 of their last 6 at home in the Champions League too, although some will question the standard of the teams they have faced compared with the Liverpool one they will play this week.

There is much to admire about the approach Liverpool have, but defensively they remain a team who can be very vulnerable. That is what Porto have to look to exploit, although finding the balance between attack and defence is going to be the challenge they face on Wednesday.

Juventus, Besiktas and Monaco have all scored at least twice as 3 of the last 4 teams to visit Porto in the Champions League. That will encourage Liverpool to go in search of one or two away goals which could prove highly valuable in the context of the tie, and they are a team who have been scoring a fair few goals in recent away games.

Liverpool also scored at least twice in 3 of their 4 away Champions League games so far this season and I have to say I am expecting to see goals in this fixture.

With the onus on Porto to attack, I think there could be spaces to exploit for both teams who will want to get forward. That could see opportunities at both ends and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out when the teams play in the First Leg.

All 3 Porto home Champions League games featured at least three goals and 3 of 4 Liverpool away Champions League games have done the same. I don't think Liverpool will stray from their philosophy which should mean an attacking game develops and backing at least three goals looks the most likely outcome.


Real Madrid v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: This has to be considered the tie of the Second Round of the Champions League by some distance with both Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain the leading favourites to win the Champions League alongside Barcelona, Manchester City and Bayern Munich.

Only one of these teams can progress to the Quarter Final though and I think there are big repercussions in play for the losing team to add to the pressure of the occasion.

Neither club is going to be satisfied by a Second Round exit and I think there will be sweeping changes at Real Madrid and huge coaching changes at Paris Saint-Germain in the months ahead if their team is beaten in this tie.

That will be on the minds of the management staff, but you have to think the players are keen to show off the array of talent that will take to the field. Both Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain look like huge threats when going forward with confidence, but defensively there is room for improvement and there is every chance they gel together to produce two memorable fixtures much like Barcelona and PSG did twelve months ago.

It is hard to believe this tie will come close to the drama that was provided, but goals were not in short supply in that tie and I expect this one to follow suit.

Both teams look very comfortable with the ball and the attacking players on show should be able to create some big openings for some of the best footballers in the world. It is hard to see those chances not being converted into goals and I think it is no surprise the layers are offering pretty short odds for four or more goals.

However I think there is every chance of that number being reached even if their two matches in the 2015/16 Group Stage produced a grand total of one goal. The last 5 Paris Saint-Germain away games in the Champions League have produced four or more goals, while Real Madrid have looked very vulnerable defensively and dangerous going forward in recent games.

Some times these fixtures can disappoint, but I am not sure Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain know another way to play except getting forward and scoring goals. I will look for that to mould into a top class Champions League game, at least from an attacking point of view, and at least four goals to be scored on Wednesday in the First Leg.


Ludogorets v Milan Pick: Most will be expecting Milan to get past Ludogorets over the two Legs of this Last 32 Europa League tie to be played in the next eight days. However this First Leg looks a tougher fixture than the layers believe as Milan are going in as strong favourites to secure a lead in Bulgaria.

That could be down to the fact that Ludogorets have not played a competitive fixture since December while Milan are on an 8 game unbeaten run. There are definite signs that Milan are feeling more confident than they have been in weeks, but Ludogorets have been a tough test for teams visiting Bulgaria and will know how important the First Leg is to them.

Ludogorets have shown they can play some decent attacking football at times and I think they are going to challenge Milan at times. They have been involved in some high scoring games at home in European competition this season as Ludogorets have looked to get forward which has ultimately left them exposed defensively too.

They have played 6 home European games this season and both teams have scored in 5 of those and Ludogorets have to know their best chance of the upset will come if they can earn a First Leg lead. Milan's away games in Europe have tended to trend the opposite way with tight games produced, but they could be forced into a more entertaining game by the approach of their hosts.

The 1-1 scoreline could be the biggest blow to this pick, but I think both Ludogorets and Milan will have their chances to combine for at least three goals at odds against in this First Leg.


Nice v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: There are a few fixtures in the Champions League and Europa League over this period where some of the teams involved are resuming competitive action after Winter Breaks domestically.

That can make it tougher to get a read on how they are going to perform with fitness perhaps a concern when facing a team who have been playing plenty of competitive football.

That is the case when Nice host Lokomotiv Moscow on Thursday in the First Leg in France and I think that has contributed to the home team being an odds on favourite to win this fixture. However Nice have not been in great form and that makes it much harder to trust them to win this game.

Nice have been better at home though and have won 6 of their last 9 in front of their own fans, while also winning 2 of 5 European games here this season. That makes them dangerous, but Lokomotiv Moscow are also a tough team having lost just 1 of their last 8 away Europa League ties.

The defeat did come last season in the Last 32 of the Europa League though and I think Nice may have enough to secure a narrow advantage from the First Leg. I will keep my interest in this game to a minimum though with Nice not exactly firing on all cylinders, but I think they have played well enough at home to secure a First Leg lead against an opponent that perhaps may run out of energy in the second half off the long Winter Break.

I don't think it will be a decisive lead with the Second Leg in the Russian capital to come, but I will take a small interest in Nice having a lead from the First Leg.


Ostersund v Arsenal Pick: On paper this looks to be a tie that should be dominated by Arsenal and the layers are anticipating the same with the English side short odds to win the First Leg in Sweden.

I don't think Ostersund will be too concerned about being the underdog having spent the entire Europa League campaign surprising teams who should have beaten them on paper. The likes of Galatasaray, PAOK and Hertha Berlin have all lost to Graham Potter's team in Sweden, while Athletic Bilbao needed an 89th minute goal to earn a 2-2 draw here.

The long lay off since December is a concern for Ostersund against a Premier League club like Arsenal but I do think they can pose problems for a team who have been travelling poorly of late.

A much changed Arsenal team have won at BATE Borisov and Red Star Belgrade in the Europa League, and I am second guessing Arsene Wenger by suggesting a strong team could be played in this First Leg.

That makes Arsenal more dangerous with the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Jack Wilshere and Mesut Ozil supporting Danny Welbeck. It should be something Wenger considers with the Europa League increasing in importance in each passing Premier League week, and the fact that Arsenal are not playing this weekend means the players will have plenty of time to recharge the batteries following this fixture.

A strong team will cause Ostersund problems like Athletic Bilbao did, but Arsenal still look vulnerable defensively and I think the home team will cause problems of their own.

I was tempted to pick Ostersund with the start on the Asian Handicap considering how well they played at home against teams in the Europa League. However the attacking qualities of Arsenal makes it hard to oppose them in this kind of fixture.

It does make me want to back at least three goals to be shared out though because all of the attacking quality of Arsenal is almost matched by the defensive vulnerabilities. I won't be surprised if both teams score in this one and I am expecting an attacking display from both clubs with the expected teams they are going to pick.


Celtic v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: Both Celtic and Zenit St Petersburg will feel this is the kind of opponent they would have potentially met in the Champions League and that should mean both Brendan Rodgers and Roberto Mancini will be reminding their players of the size of the task in front of them.

It is Zenit St Petersburg who will come into this Europa League Last 32 tie as the favourites to go on and progress to the next Round, especially if they can head away from Glasgow with an away goal or two behind them.

Zenit St Petersburg have scored plenty of goals in the Europa League this season which will make them a real danger to a Celtic team who have not made Glasgow as much of a fortress in Europe as they would have liked. Celtic have lost 5 of their last 8 home European ties including all 3 in the Champions League Group Stage this season.

That means the pressure is on Celtic to find the right balance to earn a lead that they will be able to defend in St Petersburg. Injuries may make it more difficult for Celtic, but Rodgers will ask his team to play one way and that is to attack their visitors and try and force their way into a lead.

Attacking football like the way Rodgers wants his team to approach things does make Celtic a little more vulnerable defensively and teams have been able to come to Celtic Park and score goals. This Zenit St Petersburg team will believe they can do the same and these two teams could combine for three or more goals ahead of the Second Leg in St Petersburg next week.

Goals have flown in recent Celtic home European games and I think both teams will have chances in this one. There may even be the potential for late goals if Celtic are chasing or if Zenit St Petersburg get a little tired coming out of the Winter Break and I will look for three or more goals to be shared out in this one.


Lyon v Villarreal Pick: One of the best looking Last 32 ties in the Europa League is played between Lyon and Villarreal, two clubs who have had success in the Champions League in recent memory.

However both have become a little more accustomed to the Europa League and will be looking for a strong run in the competition as perhaps a strong path back into the Champions League. Both have reached the Semi Final in the last couple of years with Villarreal doing that in 2016 and Lyon last season, while the latter have the added motivation of knowing the Final will be played in their home Stadium in May.

I am finding it tough to separate these teams with both Lyon and Villarreal showing what they are capable of with recent League wins over Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain respectively. However both teams have come off the boil and come in with losing trends in recent games which makes it tougher to work out the outcome of the tie.

However I do think home advantage is key for Lyon in the First Leg and I think they can use that to have a lead to defend in Spain. Villarreal have been strong away from home in the Europa League since their Semi Final loss to Liverpool in April 2016, but Lyon have won 6 of 7 home Europa League ties over the last twelve months which has to give them confidence.

It will be tight and I do think both teams will have everything to play for in the Second Leg in seven days time, but I am going to back Lyon to have the lead by winning this First Leg.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juventus @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Porto-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Real Madrid-Paris Saint-Germain Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Ludogorets-Milan Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nice @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Ostersund-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Celtic-Zenit St Petersburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lyon @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)