Midweek Football Picks 2018 (February 20-22)

I have not really ever been a fan of the way the Last 16 of the Champions League is played over four weeks, but I guess it does allow for fans to see more of the Second Round ties.

It might have something to do with waiting until last for Manchester United to get their Second Round First Leg underway- patience is a virtue, but not when you just want to get the Champions League going again after waiting two months.

The English clubs all had a good first week back in European action with Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal virtually assured a place in the next Round after recording thumping away wins. Tottenham Hotspur are also the favourites to see off Juventus after coming from 2-0 down in Turin, but now the attention turns to Chelsea and Manchester United.

Both teams face difficult challenges from Spain on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively and these two are involved in the stand out ties of the week in the Champions League.

On Thursday the attention will turn to the completion of the Europa League Last 32 Round with the draw for the Last 16 made on Friday.

Monday night proved to be of huge significance in England as Wigan Athletic shocked Manchester City by beating them in the FA Cup yet again. That's the third time in six seasons The Latics have beaten Manchester City in this Cup and it ended all talk of the Quadruple for the latter.

It just goes to show how big an achievement it was for the Manchester United 1998/99 team to go on and win 'The Treble' (I mean the real Treble too) and Manchester City are under some pressure now to add to the Premier League that they have had in control for a couple of months.

This weekend they face Arsenal in the League Cup Final and another defeat in a domestic Cup competition can't be contemplated by the fans.

I have written a short piece about Manchester United and the decisions Jose Mourinho has to make to get the best out of his top players. That can be read here and was written in the days after the 1-0 loss to Newcastle United.

Now onto the European Picks from this midweek's action.


Bayern Munich v Besiktas Pick: After finishing 2nd in their Champions League Group, Bayern Munich had to be over the moon when they were paired with Besiktas in the Last 16 of the competition. That isn't to say anyone at the club are going to be taking anything for granted in this tie, but Bayern Munich could have had a much bigger test in this Round having finished behind Paris Saint-Germain.

The German giants look in much better shape now than they did back in September when crushed in the French capital by Paris Saint-Germain. 13 straight wins has given Bayern Munich some momentum and the squad looks as healthy as it has at any stage in the 2017/18 season.

The First Leg is played at home this week and Bayern Munich have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks in front of their own fans. Defensively they have looked a little suspect which is a concern the further they progress in the Champions League, but the goals being scored means Bayern Munich have to feel they can put themselves in a commanding position in the tie before the Second Leg in Istanbul.

Besiktas will be looking to avoid that fate on Tuesday in the First Leg and they will travel to Bayern Munich with some confidence having won 4 of their last 5 away Champions League ties including all 3 played this season. In that time Besiktas have won in Napoli, Porto, Monaco and against Bundesliga's own Leipzig.

However playing Bayern Munich feels like another step up for Besiktas as they take on one of the favourites to win the Champions League. The lack of away clean sheets has to be a concern for Besiktas too, and Bayern Munich have scored 11 goals in their 3 home games following the Winter Break.

Bayern Munich also scored three times in each of their home wins in the Champions League Group Stage and they have been very strong in this Round of the competition in recent years. I favour the home side to dominate much of the play and create chances as they have been, while moving into a strong position in the tie ahead of the Second Leg.

I will back the home team to win and cover the big Asian Handicap in the First Leg.


Chelsea v Barcelona Pick: This looked to be the toughest of the assignments for the five English clubs left in the Champions League when Chelsea take on Barcelona over the next month. Recent form for Chelsea may have depleted much of the optimism that the fans may have been feeling, but Antonio Conte has seen his players respond to some difficult results.

Chelsea at least come in with back to back wins and they have only lost 1 of their last 18 home games in all competitions. The home Leg is always going to be very important for Chelsea who were the only English club who failed to win their Group and thus had to face one of the tougher fixtures they could have been drawn with in the Last 16.

There should be some confidence in the Chelsea ranks considering the squad is well rested and looks about as healthy as Conte could have asked. However the draws with Roma and Atletico Madrid in home Group games is a bit of a concern for Chelsea who will have to be significantly better to beat the Spanish League leaders Barcelona.

No one will dispute the talent Barcelona have in their ranks, but it does have to be noted that they are not at the same level as the team that won the Champions League in 2015. This team certainly doesn't travel as well as the odds would suggest with Barcelona coming into the First Leg as pretty strong favourites to beat Chelsea.

Barcelona have only won 1 of their last 5 away Champions League games having drawn 0-0 at both Sporting Lisbon and Juventus in the Group. They have also lost their last 3 away Knock Out ties in the Champions League without scoring and Chelsea have shown they can be very good defensively at Stamford Bridge.

Take away the 0-3 loss to Bournemouth and Chelsea have conceded one other goal in their last 9 at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. The 3-3 draw with Roma and 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage is a concern, but I think a rested team who can call upon their first choice back three will feel they can at least contain Barcelona and the damage the away side can produce.

Keeping them out is a challenge, but Barcelona have scored 1 goal in their last 5 Champions League away games and that doesn't inspire confidence in short odds to win here. Historically they have struggled at Stamford Bridge with 4 losses in 6 previous visits to this ground and Barcelona have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 at Stamford Bridge.

Even that was the controversial equaliser in injury time of the 2011 Semi Final which took Barcelona through to the Final on away goals.

Recent form has dented some of my confidence in Chelsea, but I think they can earn a positive result in this one. As good as Barcelona are, they are not the greatest travellers and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if Chelsea had some sort of lead to protect at the Nou Camp next month.

Backing Chelsea on the Asian Handicap to avoid defeat against a short odds favourite is the call for me. I was almost tempted to have a small interest in Chelsea winning with their history against Barcelona, but ultimately a low-scoring draw could also be the outcome and I will just look for Chelsea to earn some kind of positive result.


Sevilla v Manchester United Pick: The last four Europa League titles have been won by either Sevilla (3 times) or Manchester United and these teams meet in a big Last 16 tie in the Champions League with the First Leg to come this week.

The home Leg is very important for Sevilla who have shown improvement since Vincenzo Montella took over as manager at the end of December and this is a team who have proven to be tough to beat on their own patch. They have won 4 of their last 5 games here including beating Atletico Madrid, and Sevilla also have a strong home record in the Champions League where they have won 6 of their last 9 fixtures.

Twelve months ago Sevilla dominated Leicester City in the home Leg of their Last 16 tie but could not take their chances in what ended up being a narrow 2-1 win. That saw Sevilla exit the Champions League having lost in England, while Manchester City won here in 2015/16 and Liverpool were leading 0-3 here in the Group Stage before self-destructing in the 3-3 draw.

That has to give Manchester United confidence especially as they showed they can produce the goods in Knock Out Football in the Europa League last season. Manchester United won at St Etienne and Celta Vigo in those Knock Out Rounds and led late at Anderlecht, while they have won in CSKA Moscow and Benfica in the Group Stage of the Champions League this season.

Recent form does reduce some of the optimism for Manchester United in this Last 16 tie, especially with losses at Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United recently. The failure to score in both of those defeats is an issue for Manchester United, but I think they will have chances here and can cause some problems for Sevilla.

However I also think Sevilla will have their opportunities against a Manchester United defence that has not looked as strong as Jose Mourinho would have liked. While I do think Mourinho will want to set his side up to be tough to beat, I think they will struggle to contain Sevilla and the layers may be caught out with their odds against quotes for at least three goals to be shared out here.

Sevilla home games in the Champions League have been high scoring with their last 7 home Champions League games featuring at least three goals. In all 5 previous home games Sevilla have played against English opposition there have been three or more goals shared out including in the 2-1 win over Leicester City last season and I think their style of play and desire to have a lead from the First Leg will produce an attacking game of football.

Both teams can create their chances in this one and I will back at least three goals to be shared out, even if as a Manchester United fan I would happily take a 0-1 or 0-2 win ahead of the Second Leg back at Old Trafford early next month.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma Pick: Both Shakhtar Donetsk and Roma have to view this Last 16 Champions League tie as a major opportunity to reach the last eight of the competition and I think there won't be a lot between them over two Legs.

It is always a tough task for those clubs in Eastern Europe who are coming in off a long Winter Break when European competition resumes. Shakhtar Donetsk are playing just their second game since the Winter Break and that has been problematic in the past, although this is a team who have played very well at home through this season.

They showed what they can do with 3 wins over Napoli, Feyenoord and Manchester City in the Group Stage and Roma have notoriously been poor travellers in the Champions League. However Roma will point to their fightback at Stamford Bridge in the 3-3 draw against Chelsea and their 1-2 win over Qarabag as proof that this current squad have a little more about them.

Roma have been in decent enough form in recent weeks to feel confident about this trip, although previous Roma teams have lost here in 2006 and 2011. This team have won back to back away games, but winning in the Ukraine against Shakhtar Donetsk has been a challenge for better teams than Roma and I think the home team deserve their favouritism.

If this match had been played in a few weeks with more football under Shakhtar Donetsk's belts, I would really favour them at the prices to earn a victory and have a lead on their visit to the Italian capital. However I think the prices are factoring in Shakhtar Donetsk's long Winter Break and the limited football they have played and so it may pay off to back them on the Asian Handicap which returns the full stake if this fixture ends in a draw.

Napoli, who are 16 points clear of Roma in Serie A, lost here earlier this season and Roma do have their difficulties away from home in the Champions League. I wouldn't be surprised if Roma scored here, but I think Shakhtar Donetsk can win this First Leg and I will take them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Dynamo Kiev v AEK Athens Pick: The 1-1 draw in Greece has put Dynamo Kiev in the driving seat in this Last 32 tie in the Europa League and I expect they are going to have enough to not only see off AEK Athens, but win this Second Leg too.

The onus is on AEK Athens to head to Kiev and to score at least once if they have any chance of making it through to the next Round. That could be a big ask for a team who have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away European ties.

They are now going to the home of Dynamo Kiev where they have been very strong at the Europa League level even if they have not managed to take that into the Champions League in recent years. However this is a fixture more like what Dynamo Kiev expect to face in the Europa League and I think they will be able to exploit any spaces AEK Athens leave the longer this game goes on.

AEK Athens have to be respected for the fact they have only conceded 1 goal in their last 4 away Europa League ties including at Milan and Austria Vienna. However those goalless draws earned AEK Athens the points they needed to get through to the Last 32 and a goalless draw here means defeat and an exit from the competition.

It should mean more risks are taken by the away team and I will back Dynamo Kiev to exploit that by recording a home win in the Second Leg.


Lazio v Steaua Bucharest Pick: The 1-0 win for Steaua Bucharest in the First Leg of this Europa League tie puts them in a strong position, although Lazio should still feel confident of turning things around in front of their own fans.

It's definitely feeling like a tight situation for Lazio knowing how much an away goal will dent their chances of progressing, while recent form has been really poor for a side chasing a Champions League spot.

However they did earn a confidence boosting 2-0 win over Verona on Monday night and Lazio have generally performed well at home where they have won 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions. Even in the Europa League Group Stage Lazio managed 2 wins from 3 home Group games and they are facing a Steaua Bucharest team who have not travelled well when visiting Italy in the past.

This Steaua Bucharest team have played well this season though, and won 2 out of 3 away Group games in the Europa League while also drawing 0-0 at Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League Play Off Round. I imagine they will look to frustrate the home crowd in this one too by not leaving too many spaces for Lazio to exploit, but I am favouring the home side to work their way through this Second Leg.

It won't always be easy for Lazio, but the home performances have to give the players confidence in keeping two avenues into the Champions League open for next season. The first goal will be absolutely critical and I think if Lazio can get that, they will be able to grind down Steaua Bucharest for a win by a couple of goals that will take them through to the Last 16 of the Europa League.


Leipzig v Napoli Pick: This tie looks like it is already over after Leipzig came from a goal down to beat Napoli 1-3 in Italy last week.

Most will look at that result and think it is probably the best thing for Napoli to exit the Europa League and concentrate on the Serie A title challenge, but manager Maurizio Sarri was not that impressed with the performance and I think he will be looking for a reaction.

It does make Napoli dangerous as we all know the kind of attacking talent they have in the squad and there is every chance Leipzig may decide to sit on the lead they have. However that is not really in the nature of this Leipzig team and the Second Leg could produce fireworks much like the first.

Napoli are chasing at least three goals here so they can't really afford to start slowly and that should leave spaces for Leipzig to try and exploit. There is every chance the game could be really open going into the final 20 minutes with Napoli capable of scoring the goals to at least worry Leipzig, although the bigger concern may be trying to keep the back door shut.

All 3 Napoli away games in the Champions League Group ended with at least three goals shared out as they were beaten 2-1 each time at Shakhtar Donetsk, Manchester City and Feyenoord. The Leipzig home games in the Champions League Group Stage saw both teams score in each game and the last 2 produce three or more goals.

With the situation as it is, I can see these teams combining for another high-scoring game. I do think both teams will score in the Second Leg and I think the spaces at the end of the fixture should mean there are plenty of chances for the third goal to be scored in this one.

Last week the First Leg came to life in the second half with all four goals scored in those last 45 minutes, but there is every chance this one picks up from where that game was left off. Backing at least three goals looks to be the sensible play in this one.


Zenit St Petersburg v Celtic Pick: There were enough chances for both teams to produce a higher scoring game than they did last week, but I am going back to the same market when Zenit St Petersburg and Celtic meet in Russia in the Second Leg of this Europa League Last 32 tie.

I do think Zenit St Petersburg will have benefited from the outing having not played competitive football since December, and they will be confident of turning around a 1-0 deficit as they did against Utrecht in the Europa League Qualifiers earlier this season.

The home form has been very good for Zenit St Petersburg in this competition having won 17 of their last 19 here which includes winning their last 4 this season. They scored at least twice in each of their 3 home games in the Group, although there has to be a slight concern that Celtic created as many chances as they did last week especially as Zenit St Petersburg did not keep a clean sheet at home in the Group Stage.

However Celtic have been poor travellers in European competition and have lost 3 of their last 4 on their travels this season. The exception was a stunning 0-3 win over Anderlecht, and I think Brendan Rodgers is going to set his team up to try and score what could be a critical away goal in this tie.

I have to expect better from Zenit St Petersburg all around after what was a disappointing performance for the most part in Glasgow. The game under their belt will have helped and Celtic are not as dangerous away from home as they are in front of their own fans, while this is a side who have generally struggled in recent years when the European competition has ramped up in the Group Stage.

I also have to think Zenit St Petersburg will be a little better when the chances do come their way, while the defence will give Celtic some opportunities too. The situation of Knock Out Football could also see this Second Leg really open up if there is an early goal to get things going and I like the chances of seeing better finishing to produce three or more goals in this one.


Arsenal v Ostersund Pick: This Europa League Last 32 tie is almost certainly over after Arsenal won 0-3 in Sweden last week and that means Arsene Wenger will likely rotate his squad to keep key players fresh for the League Cup Final on Sunday. A much changed team have played well at the Europa League level before Christmas so there won't be a lot of concern that Arsenal are somehow going to fail to win their first Knock Out tie in European Football for many a year.

The home team will still likely call upon the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Danny Welbeck to pose an attacking threat in this one, but I am also expecting a lot more from Ostersund than what they produced in the home Leg.

That is slightly harsh as I think Ostersund played really well after self-destructing to fall into a 0-2 hole early in the First Leg and they were unfortunate not to score. This week they will be facing a less experienced Arsenal team and I do think Ostersund are capable of scoring a famous goal that their visiting supporters will appreciate.

We have seen the Arsenal 'Cup' team struggle at times this season even if they did win 2 of 3 home Europa League Group games. They had narrow wins over the likes of Doncaster Rovers and Norwich City in the League Cup though and Ostersund showed plenty of promise on the attack last week and were a penalty kick away from scoring in the home tie.

Ostersund have scored in Galatasaray, PAOK and Hertha Berlin in the Europa League this season and I think another week under their belt will mean better fitness and a little more composure when the chances do come their way.

Ultimately Arsenal will still likely be a little too good on the day with the attacking players they are expected to use, but I can see Ostersund playing their part in this one. I will look for both teams to score in a decent game of football on Thursday evening as Arsenal put their name into the Last 16 draw to be made on Friday.


Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund Pick: If this Second Leg is anything like the First, fans are in for a treat when Atalanta try and turn around their 3-2 defeat at the hands of Borussia Dortmund.

It is relatively easy to make a case for both sides in the Second Leg with Atalanta being a strong home team who won all 3 Europa League games here earlier in the season, while Borussia Dortmund have shown a real upturn in form since returning from the Winter Break.

What looks almost certain to occur is for this Second Leg to produce goals and I am going to back at least four to be scored for the second game in a row between these teams.

Atalanta can be patient knowing they need a single goal to win this fixture as long as they keep a clean sheet, but that looks a long shot having conceded in 6 of their last 7 here in all competitions. They are also facing a Borussia Dortmund side who have scored in 15 consecutive away games in all competitions including at Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League.

On the other hand it is hard to see Atalanta failing to score at least once having done that in 15 of their last 17 home games in all competitions. Once again I expect Borussia Dortmund to help having been far from watertight, while an early goal in this one should really ramp up the attacking football.

My gut feeling is that Atalanta can win this game and progress through to the Last 16, but Borussia Dortmund's form has been the superior of the two teams going into the Second Leg which puts me off the home win. However backing at least four goals to be scored looks a very big price with this fixture potentially going the same way as last week thanks to the situation both teams find themselves in.

There is the potential for both teams to be a little more wary of what the other can produce and thus focus a little more on the defensive side of the game, but an early game could throw those plans out of the window. Both teams have shown attacking threat coupled with defensive vulnerability in recent weeks and I will back four or more goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lazio - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg-Celtic Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal-Ostersund Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atalanta-Borussia Dortmund Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (February 13-15)

The Champions League and Europa League Knock Out Rounds begin this week and that means the excitement level for the fans begins to raise.

Many of the fans of the English clubs have to feel confident of their chances to go deep in both competitions especially as the Europa League has taken on a new importance for Arsenal now they are looking off the pace of the top four in the Premier League.

The five English clubs in the Champions League will all feel they have winnable ties, although the most vulnerable looks to be Chelsea when they face Barcelona having hit a poor patch of form at just the wrong time.


Before the Weekend Football Picks post I will have my latest 'United Corner' focusing on recent poor performances and a lack of direction that Manchester United have seemingly had when going forward. That should be posted by Thursday ahead of three huge games for United to end February.


Basel v Manchester City Pick: The Champions League Second Round has put together some very interesting ties, but this is perhaps one of the least appealing ones.

Much of that is down to the fact that it feels like a mismatch and I think it would be a big surprise if Manchester City are not able to beat Basel over two Legs.

The First Leg has a few more question marks attached with Basel hosting the game and Manchester City just not looking at their dominant best away from home in recent Premier League games. However Basel's own form has not been that convincing and some changes in the January transfer window will take time to blend in with the rest of the squad.

Basel have speed which can be a big factor against Manchester City on the counter attack, but containing this City attack is a big ask.

Some are taking confidence from the 1-0 win over Manchester United here in the Group Stage, but Manchester United created many chances in that fixture. Unlike United, Manchester City are playing with a lot more confidence in the final third and have a striker in Sergio Aguero who is in stunning form in front of goal.

Manchester City scored four times in wins over Feyenoord and Napoli in the Group Stage and I think a strong team will begin here and put Pep Guardiola's team in a position where they will feel they have more than one foot into the Quarter Final. While Basel can cause some problems, I think they are going to really have problems keeping Manchester City out at the other end and I am expecting the Premier League leaders to win by a healthy margin on Tuesday.

There is a pressure that comes with Knock Out football, but this is a Manchester City team with experience of playing in these Rounds even if they have not been as successful as they would have liked in recent years. However confidence is high in the Manchester City camp and I think they win by a couple of goals, at least, on the night.


Juventus v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is one of the better looking Second Round ties in the Champions League and I would be surprised if there isn't everything to play for when Juventus and Tottenham Hotspur meet at Wembley Stadium in the Second Leg next month.

The First Leg has the makings of a tight contest with Juventus in stunning form, while Tottenham Hotspur have beaten both Manchester United and Arsenal and drawn with Liverpool in their last 3 Premier League games. Those results will have given Tottenham Hotspur a big shot of confidence as they head into more big games and it perhaps has raised some questions as to the outcome of this match.

One of the big criticisms of Tottenham Hotspur have been performances in big games, but those results coupled with the 1-1 draw in Real Madrid and 1-2 win in Borussia Dortmund shows what they are capable of. They did have to ride their luck a little bit in Madrid though and Tottenham Hotspur have tended to be a little more vulnerable on their travels against the top teams.

While they deserved their draw at Anfield ten days ago, Tottenham Hotspur have lost pretty comfortably at Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City in the Premier League.

I do think they will have to ride out some rough patches to earn a positive result here especially with the way Juventus have been playing.

8 consecutive clean sheets at home in all competitions and 11 straight wins in all competitions overall means Juventus are coming in with plenty of form of their own. Serie A is the priority for the club and Juventus are in a real battle back home against Napoli, but this is a team who have plenty of momentum behind them and I think that is going to lead to a narrow lead from the First Leg.

Odds against quotes for a Juventus win look too big as far as I am concerned especially when you think of how Tottenham Hotspur have tended to play away from home in 'big' games. I do think Spurs can be tough to break down defensively which will give them a chance in this First Leg, and the likes of Christian Eriksen and Harry Kane will pose a threat to Juventus too.

However home advantage should be a key difference maker in this match and I do like Juventus to come out with a narrow advantage. It is a bigger price than I anticipated for the Juventus win and I think they are worth backing at odds against to come out with the lead.


Porto v Liverpool Pick: You have to feel this First Leg is vital for Porto if they have real ambitions of beating Liverpool in the Champions League Second Round. This has notoriously been a difficult ground for teams from England to visit and Porto have to believe they need a lead to take to Anfield next month in the Second Leg.

Confidence shouldn't be a problem for Porto who have a long unbeaten record to protect and who have won their last 8 home games in all competitions. They have won 4 of their last 6 at home in the Champions League too, although some will question the standard of the teams they have faced compared with the Liverpool one they will play this week.

There is much to admire about the approach Liverpool have, but defensively they remain a team who can be very vulnerable. That is what Porto have to look to exploit, although finding the balance between attack and defence is going to be the challenge they face on Wednesday.

Juventus, Besiktas and Monaco have all scored at least twice as 3 of the last 4 teams to visit Porto in the Champions League. That will encourage Liverpool to go in search of one or two away goals which could prove highly valuable in the context of the tie, and they are a team who have been scoring a fair few goals in recent away games.

Liverpool also scored at least twice in 3 of their 4 away Champions League games so far this season and I have to say I am expecting to see goals in this fixture.

With the onus on Porto to attack, I think there could be spaces to exploit for both teams who will want to get forward. That could see opportunities at both ends and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out when the teams play in the First Leg.

All 3 Porto home Champions League games featured at least three goals and 3 of 4 Liverpool away Champions League games have done the same. I don't think Liverpool will stray from their philosophy which should mean an attacking game develops and backing at least three goals looks the most likely outcome.


Real Madrid v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: This has to be considered the tie of the Second Round of the Champions League by some distance with both Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain the leading favourites to win the Champions League alongside Barcelona, Manchester City and Bayern Munich.

Only one of these teams can progress to the Quarter Final though and I think there are big repercussions in play for the losing team to add to the pressure of the occasion.

Neither club is going to be satisfied by a Second Round exit and I think there will be sweeping changes at Real Madrid and huge coaching changes at Paris Saint-Germain in the months ahead if their team is beaten in this tie.

That will be on the minds of the management staff, but you have to think the players are keen to show off the array of talent that will take to the field. Both Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain look like huge threats when going forward with confidence, but defensively there is room for improvement and there is every chance they gel together to produce two memorable fixtures much like Barcelona and PSG did twelve months ago.

It is hard to believe this tie will come close to the drama that was provided, but goals were not in short supply in that tie and I expect this one to follow suit.

Both teams look very comfortable with the ball and the attacking players on show should be able to create some big openings for some of the best footballers in the world. It is hard to see those chances not being converted into goals and I think it is no surprise the layers are offering pretty short odds for four or more goals.

However I think there is every chance of that number being reached even if their two matches in the 2015/16 Group Stage produced a grand total of one goal. The last 5 Paris Saint-Germain away games in the Champions League have produced four or more goals, while Real Madrid have looked very vulnerable defensively and dangerous going forward in recent games.

Some times these fixtures can disappoint, but I am not sure Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain know another way to play except getting forward and scoring goals. I will look for that to mould into a top class Champions League game, at least from an attacking point of view, and at least four goals to be scored on Wednesday in the First Leg.


Ludogorets v Milan Pick: Most will be expecting Milan to get past Ludogorets over the two Legs of this Last 32 Europa League tie to be played in the next eight days. However this First Leg looks a tougher fixture than the layers believe as Milan are going in as strong favourites to secure a lead in Bulgaria.

That could be down to the fact that Ludogorets have not played a competitive fixture since December while Milan are on an 8 game unbeaten run. There are definite signs that Milan are feeling more confident than they have been in weeks, but Ludogorets have been a tough test for teams visiting Bulgaria and will know how important the First Leg is to them.

Ludogorets have shown they can play some decent attacking football at times and I think they are going to challenge Milan at times. They have been involved in some high scoring games at home in European competition this season as Ludogorets have looked to get forward which has ultimately left them exposed defensively too.

They have played 6 home European games this season and both teams have scored in 5 of those and Ludogorets have to know their best chance of the upset will come if they can earn a First Leg lead. Milan's away games in Europe have tended to trend the opposite way with tight games produced, but they could be forced into a more entertaining game by the approach of their hosts.

The 1-1 scoreline could be the biggest blow to this pick, but I think both Ludogorets and Milan will have their chances to combine for at least three goals at odds against in this First Leg.


Nice v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: There are a few fixtures in the Champions League and Europa League over this period where some of the teams involved are resuming competitive action after Winter Breaks domestically.

That can make it tougher to get a read on how they are going to perform with fitness perhaps a concern when facing a team who have been playing plenty of competitive football.

That is the case when Nice host Lokomotiv Moscow on Thursday in the First Leg in France and I think that has contributed to the home team being an odds on favourite to win this fixture. However Nice have not been in great form and that makes it much harder to trust them to win this game.

Nice have been better at home though and have won 6 of their last 9 in front of their own fans, while also winning 2 of 5 European games here this season. That makes them dangerous, but Lokomotiv Moscow are also a tough team having lost just 1 of their last 8 away Europa League ties.

The defeat did come last season in the Last 32 of the Europa League though and I think Nice may have enough to secure a narrow advantage from the First Leg. I will keep my interest in this game to a minimum though with Nice not exactly firing on all cylinders, but I think they have played well enough at home to secure a First Leg lead against an opponent that perhaps may run out of energy in the second half off the long Winter Break.

I don't think it will be a decisive lead with the Second Leg in the Russian capital to come, but I will take a small interest in Nice having a lead from the First Leg.


Ostersund v Arsenal Pick: On paper this looks to be a tie that should be dominated by Arsenal and the layers are anticipating the same with the English side short odds to win the First Leg in Sweden.

I don't think Ostersund will be too concerned about being the underdog having spent the entire Europa League campaign surprising teams who should have beaten them on paper. The likes of Galatasaray, PAOK and Hertha Berlin have all lost to Graham Potter's team in Sweden, while Athletic Bilbao needed an 89th minute goal to earn a 2-2 draw here.

The long lay off since December is a concern for Ostersund against a Premier League club like Arsenal but I do think they can pose problems for a team who have been travelling poorly of late.

A much changed Arsenal team have won at BATE Borisov and Red Star Belgrade in the Europa League, and I am second guessing Arsene Wenger by suggesting a strong team could be played in this First Leg.

That makes Arsenal more dangerous with the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Jack Wilshere and Mesut Ozil supporting Danny Welbeck. It should be something Wenger considers with the Europa League increasing in importance in each passing Premier League week, and the fact that Arsenal are not playing this weekend means the players will have plenty of time to recharge the batteries following this fixture.

A strong team will cause Ostersund problems like Athletic Bilbao did, but Arsenal still look vulnerable defensively and I think the home team will cause problems of their own.

I was tempted to pick Ostersund with the start on the Asian Handicap considering how well they played at home against teams in the Europa League. However the attacking qualities of Arsenal makes it hard to oppose them in this kind of fixture.

It does make me want to back at least three goals to be shared out though because all of the attacking quality of Arsenal is almost matched by the defensive vulnerabilities. I won't be surprised if both teams score in this one and I am expecting an attacking display from both clubs with the expected teams they are going to pick.


Celtic v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: Both Celtic and Zenit St Petersburg will feel this is the kind of opponent they would have potentially met in the Champions League and that should mean both Brendan Rodgers and Roberto Mancini will be reminding their players of the size of the task in front of them.

It is Zenit St Petersburg who will come into this Europa League Last 32 tie as the favourites to go on and progress to the next Round, especially if they can head away from Glasgow with an away goal or two behind them.

Zenit St Petersburg have scored plenty of goals in the Europa League this season which will make them a real danger to a Celtic team who have not made Glasgow as much of a fortress in Europe as they would have liked. Celtic have lost 5 of their last 8 home European ties including all 3 in the Champions League Group Stage this season.

That means the pressure is on Celtic to find the right balance to earn a lead that they will be able to defend in St Petersburg. Injuries may make it more difficult for Celtic, but Rodgers will ask his team to play one way and that is to attack their visitors and try and force their way into a lead.

Attacking football like the way Rodgers wants his team to approach things does make Celtic a little more vulnerable defensively and teams have been able to come to Celtic Park and score goals. This Zenit St Petersburg team will believe they can do the same and these two teams could combine for three or more goals ahead of the Second Leg in St Petersburg next week.

Goals have flown in recent Celtic home European games and I think both teams will have chances in this one. There may even be the potential for late goals if Celtic are chasing or if Zenit St Petersburg get a little tired coming out of the Winter Break and I will look for three or more goals to be shared out in this one.


Lyon v Villarreal Pick: One of the best looking Last 32 ties in the Europa League is played between Lyon and Villarreal, two clubs who have had success in the Champions League in recent memory.

However both have become a little more accustomed to the Europa League and will be looking for a strong run in the competition as perhaps a strong path back into the Champions League. Both have reached the Semi Final in the last couple of years with Villarreal doing that in 2016 and Lyon last season, while the latter have the added motivation of knowing the Final will be played in their home Stadium in May.

I am finding it tough to separate these teams with both Lyon and Villarreal showing what they are capable of with recent League wins over Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain respectively. However both teams have come off the boil and come in with losing trends in recent games which makes it tougher to work out the outcome of the tie.

However I do think home advantage is key for Lyon in the First Leg and I think they can use that to have a lead to defend in Spain. Villarreal have been strong away from home in the Europa League since their Semi Final loss to Liverpool in April 2016, but Lyon have won 6 of 7 home Europa League ties over the last twelve months which has to give them confidence.

It will be tight and I do think both teams will have everything to play for in the Second Leg in seven days time, but I am going to back Lyon to have the lead by winning this First Leg.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juventus @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Porto-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Real Madrid-Paris Saint-Germain Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Ludogorets-Milan Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nice @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Ostersund-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Celtic-Zenit St Petersburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lyon @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (February 21-23)

This week is set for the remaining Last 16 Champions League First Legs as well as the conclusion of the Europa League Last 32 which will be followed by the draw for the Last 16 on Friday.

There is a lot of football to be played over the next three days and I will begin my picks with the Champions League, then the Championship fixtures this week and finally the Europa League Last 32 Second Legs with all of those picks placed in this thread.


Bayer Leverkusen v Atletico Madrid Pick: If this match up had been created in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds twelve months ago, I think Atletico Madrid would be a strong favourite with the oddsmakers and with the fans to beat Bayer Leverkusen. The oddsmakers still favour the Spanish side considerably, but the last few months have been amongst the most difficult of Diego Simeone's reign as manager of Atletico Madrid and that might put a few off from backing them.

The positive for Atletico Madrid is they are not playing a team who have been winning a lot of matches back home and so aren't coming in with a hugely superior confidence. Bayer Leverkusen are in 8th place in the Bundesliga and have been inconsistent, while their home record in the Champions League shows they are hard to beat, but also can struggle to take the next step and win football matches.

The Leverkusen fans will point to the 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid in this Round two years ago, but both teams have a different feel about them now, although I am anticipating another closely fought tie over the two Legs.

Atletico Madrid look short here despite winning 2 of their 3 away Champions League games in the Group. They have not won any of their last 5 away Knock Out ties in the competition, but on the other hand it is hard to back Bayer Leverkusen to win knowing how many of their recent home European games have ended in draws.

The draw does look a big player in the First Leg as both teams will feel that keeps them in the tie for the Second Leg next month at the Vicente Calderon. Bayer Leverkusen will be looking to avoid handing an away goal to Atletico Madrid, while Diego Simeone has to feel his side can beat anyone at home considering they have won 7 of their last 8 in front of their fans in the Champions League.

Instead I am going to look for a recent Atletico Madrid trend in the Champions League to keep going, even without Diego Godin marshalling the troops. 8 of their last 12 away Champions League games have ended with one or fewer goals shared out and that includes in all 3 of their Group games earlier in the season.

The Bayer Leverkusen home games tend to be higher-scoring ones, but I don't think either team will want to take too many risks in this one and the tightness of their games two seasons ago could be replicated in both Legs this time too. Backing under 1.5 goals for a small interest looks the way to go in this one at a decent looking price.


Manchester City v Monaco Pick: I will admit that when the draw was first made for the Champions League Last 16, I thought Manchester City had got away with one by being paired with Monaco. The French League leaders had come through a weak Group at that time, but they have shown little sign of slowing down in the last two months and this is a genuinely tough tie for both clubs.

Anyone who underestimates Monaco like I did initially should be aware of their stunning win over Arsenal in the Last 16 two seasons ago as well as the fact they have beaten Tottenham Hotspur home and away this season. Unlike 'Arry Redknapp, I think Manchester City are a superior team to Tottenham Hotspur and so I do think they will offer Monaco a sterner test, but this looks like a tie that will go down to the last minute of the Second Leg.

Manchester City have been strong at home in recent weeks and they have a very positive record in recent Champions League games. They are unbeaten in 9 Champions League games here which includes visits from the likes of Sevilla, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Barcelona (Manchester City have won 3 of those games) and the players look more comfortable in the demands from their manager.

Facing a Monaco team who have won 3 of their last 10 away European games and were beaten heavily at Bayer Leverkusen and you can understand why Manchester City are the short favourites to win the First Leg. However I think this is going to be far from easy for Manchester City as Monaco have shown they have plenty of pace and goals in the squad and I do think they can play a part in this one.

Manchester City have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 11 games at home in all competitions so it might be a surprise if this Monaco team, who have scored goals for fun all season, is unable to breach this defence. With the two managers in the dug outs, I would be stunned if this isn't a game full of attacking intention and I do think there will be chances at both ends of the field in what could be a really entertaining First Leg.

It has all the makings of a First Leg that can continue the trend from last week and that is producing plenty of goalmouth action and I am looking to see goals.

This is the fourth time in three seasons that Monaco are visiting England and all three previous games have seen both teams score and at least three goals shared out. I anticipate the same will happen here but I will just keep things simple and back at least three goals to be scored in this match.


Porto v Juventus Pick: Over the two Legs of this Last 16 tie, I would be surprised if Juventus aren't going to be progressing to another Quarter Final in the Champions League. They have reinvested the Paul Pogba money to improve their squad and I do feel Juventus are a genuine threat to win an open Champions League competition in the next two months.

That is no disrespect to Porto, but I think this former Champions League winner is perhaps in the third tier of European clubs these days. They finished behind Leicester City in the Group Stage, which has to be a concern, and Porto is not the fortress it has been in recent European games here.

Prior to the wins over Club Brugge and Leicester City, Porto had not won any of 4 home games in European competition. That run had seen them lose to Dynamo Kiev and Borussia Dortmund before draws with Roma and Copenhagen.

The Play Off win over Roma has to give Porto confidence they can stun Juventus too, but they were aided by three sendings off in the two Legs and were trailing Roma at home before one of those helped them earn the draw.

Juventus have also played well away from home in the Champions League in recent games which is a different feel to previous squads that may not have been as strong on their travels as they are at home. Winning at Lyon and Sevilla in the Group Stage and leading 0-2 at Bayern Munich in the Champions League Quarter Final last season shows what Juventus can do and they simply don't do draws on their travels this season.

It won't be easy for Juventus because Porto have a long unbeaten run at home to protect, but I think the Italian Champions can earn a priceless away win in the First Leg this week. They score goals and Juventus still defend pretty well which can see them earn the narrow win here and put themselves in a very strong position for the Second Leg at home next month.

Juventus are odds against to win here, and I will back them to do that.


Sevilla v Leicester City Pick: There are times when everything seems to point one way in a football match and then the opposite happens, but I can't see a way that Sevilla are not going to have a healthy lead to take to The King Power Stadium in the Second Leg next month. Sevilla have been one of the highlights of the Spanish Football scene this season while Leicester City have been on an awful run and are mired in a downward spiral that looks destined to see them relegated from the Premier League.

Confidence could not be in two contrasting places going into the First Leg and the high press of Sevilla is likely going to lead to some Leicester City mistakes.

Some will say that Leicester City have saved their best for the Champions League, but I never bought into that line of thinking and simply looked at a Group that most English clubs would expect to Qualify from. It was only Porto's draw with Copenhagen at home which prevented them winning the Group instead as they thumped Leicester City at home and The Foxes have been on a tremendously poor run of form.

Maybe the Champions League will free up those players, but this is a squad that looks short of belief and Claudio Ranieri is struggling to find the answers. Sevilla are also a team with a lot of European experience and have won 6 of their last 8 European ties with only the likes of Athletic Bilbao and Juventus escaping with a result in that time.

Leicester City are clearly not of that level and the focus for all at the club has to be the Premier League. I don't think Ranieri plays a weakened side here, but his first eleven are not exactly inspiring much confidence in their play and I think Sevilla will win this one by a couple of goals and move into a commanding position for the Second Leg.

Last week we saw three of the four Champions League First Legs end with the home team winning by at least two goals and I will look for Sevilla to become the latest to reach that mark.


Derby County v Burton Albion Pick: I have been burnt backing Derby County to win their last two home games and that is very disappointing when you think they scored six times in those games. Not many teams will score at least three goals in back to back home games and win neither, but that is where Derby County find themselves having begun to leak more goals at home.

They have conceded at least twice in their last 4 games here in all competitions and Burton Albion have to be encouraged having seen the likes of Bristol City and Cardiff City score at least three goals as the last two visitors to The iPro Stadium.

Burton Albion have only failed to score in 1 of their last 7 away from home in the League and this feels like another match in which both teams can play their part which has become a regular occurrence in Derby County recent home games. You would still think Derby County will have too much going forward considering Burton Albion have not had a clean sheet in their last 10 away League games and conceded at least twice in 6 of those.

It's hard to trust Derby County after they have let me down so consistently in their last two games, but I think they will probably win this one. However I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out as I can see Burton Albion playing their part in the outcome of this one too and that looks a decent price at odds against.


Huddersfield Town v Reading Pick: There were two angles on this fixture that I wanted to go and had to decide which of those is the more appealing- the first was backing Huddersfield Town to continue a strong run at home and win this game, while the other was backing at least three goals to be shared out at what looks a very big price.

I have decided to go with the latter of those options because I do think Reading are playing well enough away from home to at least score here and Huddersfield Town are still more than capable of scoring the goals to win the match.

Reading might have the edge having had a week to prepare for the game too which just put me off backing Huddersfield Town to win, but The Royals don't really do clean sheets away from home.

6 of the last 7 away League games Reading have played has seen their opponent score at least twice, but the side have also managed to score at least two goals in 4 of their last 5 which is why they have only lost 1 of their last 5 away games. 5 of the last 7 Huddersfield Town home games have also featured at least three goals shared out with one of the exceptions being a 1-1 draw.

I fully anticipate both teams can score in this one and the potential for what the three points can do should mean both David Wagner and Jaap Stam encourage their team to attack until the end of the game. The last three games at Huddersfield Town between these two clubs have also produced plenty of fireworks and I am expecting a very good game of football between them on Tuesday evening as both look to close on the automatic promotion spots.

Goals might be the order of the day at odds against and I will look for the three goal mark to be hit at least.


Sheffield Wednesday v Brentford Pick: No one should be underestimating a Brentford team who may have lost 3 away League games in a row, but one who led at both Preston North End and Reading before losing those games. That makes them potentially dangerous with all the pressure on Sheffield Wednesday to keep away from the teams after the Play Off spots, but the goals being conceded by Brentford makes it hard to believe in them.

That should be an area that Sheffield Wednesday can expose as they have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 League games and also in their last 3 at Hillsborough. Defensively The Owls remain one of the stronger teams in the Division and they also have won their last 2 home games against Brentford.

It does all point to Sheffield Wednesday improving their run of 6 wins in 7 League games at home and they look a decent price to do that. I was a little surprised they are shorter than Reading were to beat Brentford last week, but Sheffield Wednesday are one of the form teams in the Championship and they can win this one at odds on.

I do think Brentford can cause some problems, but ultimately Sheffield Wednesday have the edge in both final thirds and that should see them earn another important three points.


Bristol City v Fulham Pick: Both Bristol City and Fulham will be desperate for the three points available in this fixture which is part of their make up list in the League. Both know the importance of the three points they can earn for their respective goals and we could see a decent match at Ashton Gate on Wednesday.

Scoring goals hasn't been a problem for either team, but they have had issues when it comes to defending and keeping teams from scoring.

That could be in evidence on Wednesday as both Bristol City and Fulham prefer being on the front foot and this could provide yet another high-scoring game in the Championship during the week.

The last 4 overall between these teams, including both this season, and 5 of the last 6 at Ashton Gate between them have produced at least three goals and I would be surprised if that was not the case in this one. Bristol City are the team who will push forward at home which has seen them score plenty, but also concede at least twice in 4 straight before goal-shy Rotherham United pitched up in town.

None of the last 5 Fulham away games have featured at least three goals, but they can't afford to sit back and give away these valuable points and the teams can contribute for at least three goals on Wednesday. I would expect both teams to score at least once and from there is it is anyone's chance to win.


Fenerbahce v Krasnodar Pick: This tie is finely poised between Fenerbahce and Krasnodar and I do wonder if the lack of an away goal for the Turkish club will come back and haunt them. However Fenerbahce have played very well at home in European competition and winning 8 in a row here in either the Champions League or Europa League will give them the belief they can turn this tie around.

Fenerbahce have beaten the likes of Monaco, Manchester United and Feyenoord in those run of home wins and they also beat Lokomotiv Moscow from Russia at this stage last season. The passion from the home side should inspire the home players and I think they can get the better of Krasnodar on the night, but whether that will be enough to win the tie is another issue.

They are facing a team who haven't had a lot of competitive football in the last few months and Krasnodar have struggled on their travels. They have lost half of their last 6 away games in the Europa League and Krasnodar only scored a single goal in those losses.

I do think Fenerbahce will be the better team on the night and I think they are going to be a little too good for Krasnodar. I think they are the more likely team to progress, but I will keep it simple and just back Fenerbahce to win this one in the 90 minutes.


St-Etienne v Manchester United Pick: In all honesty this tie should already be over after Manchester United put a gloss on the First Leg with a couple of late goals to take a 3-0 lead to France. They created enough chances in the First Leg to expect Manchester United to score here, especially with Jose Mourinho admitting he will play a strong team, and an away goal will be too much for St-Etienne to overcome.

However you have to acknowledge the size of the game for St-Etienne for both the players and the fans and I fully expect them to want to exit the Europa League with some pride. If they score the first goal early on there could be some nerves in the Manchester United team that St-Etienne will look to take advantage of, but ultimately their goal has to be to try and win the game and go out with some pride.

St-Etienne have played well at home in recent weeks and they have shown at Old Trafford that they can create chances which will make them a threat in this Second Leg. They won't want to see their home winning run come to an end having won their last 3 here and St-Etienne have to feel they have a chance against a Manchester United team that have lost 6 of their last 8 away European games.

The problem for St-Etienne is always going to be whether they have enough to contain Manchester United's attack when they are pushing forward and I think the Second Leg could be as entertaining as the game at Old Trafford was. St-Etienne can play their part again and backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against could be a big price at the end of this Second Leg.


Ajax v Legia Warsaw Pick: The goalless draw in Warsaw last week means Ajax and Legia Warsaw will both believe they have a chance to progress through to the Last 16. The home advantage is likely to be the difference maker for Ajax though and I do think the Dutch side can get past the team exiting the Champions League at the Group Stage.

Ajax have drawn a lot of their recent home games in Europe which is a concern for them, but they did win 3 in a row in the Group earlier this season. Those wins over Panathinaikos, Celta Vigo and Standard Liege will give Ajax the belief they can get the better of Legia Warsaw and they have also won 12 of their last 13 games here in all competitions.

It won't be easy when you consider Legia Warsaw have won 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions. However they were beaten in all 3 away games in their Champions League Group Stage and Legia Warsaw have lost 6 of their last 9 away games in European competition.

The first goal is going to be critical in this Second Leg, because it will force the other team to play much more expansively. If Ajax can go ahead, I think they will be able to pick off Legia Warsaw in the second half to get past a difficult test in the Last 32 and I will back them on the Asian Handicap.


Fiorentina v Borussia Monchengladbach Pick: The 0-1 lead from the First Leg might give Fiorentina the advantage in this Europa League Last 32 tie, but it is not one that guarantees progress to the next Round. Of course Fiorentina will be the favourites to progress, but they have lost half of their last 8 home Europa League games and a defeat here would likely send them out of the competition.

They are facing a Borussia Monchengladbach team who have lost back to back games over the last week, but one who have won 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions. Like Fiorentina, they are not as strong in European games though as they have lost 5 of their last 8 on their travels and they are under the pressure of having to score here.

Fiorentina have been playing well domestically with 5 wins in 7 games at home since their 2-3 loss to PAOK in the Group Stage of the Europa League. They have scored at least twice in 7 of their last 8 home games and I think Fiorentina can win this Second Leg to earn their place in the Last 16.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is a higher scoring game than the one in Germany last week, and I am anticipating goals to be scored too, but Fiorentina can just get ahead of Borussia Monchengladbach and win this Second Leg. I will also make a rare decision to also back at least three goals to be shared out at a decent price in this one as I am expecting a 2-1 scoreline in favour of the home team and both teams can produce an entertaining game.


Tottenham Hotspur v Gent Pick: I really wasn't sure that Tottenham Hotspur would be sending out as strong a starting eleven as they did in either of their last two games and so now it would be a weird decision to not try and win this Europa League Last 32 Second Leg. The 1-0 defeat in Belgium has put Tottenham Hotspur in an awkward position, but they will believe they have enough quality to turn things around at Wembley Stadium on Thursday.

The 2 losses here in the Champions League cost Tottenham Hotspur their spot in the Last 16 of that competition, but they did beat CSKA Moscow 3-1 here and I would think they can match that margin of win at the least. The big names should all be playing and Tottenham Hotspur recognise the need to keep two avenues into the Champions League open at this time.

For Gent a decision was made to rest some of the starters as the club are desperate to get into the Championship Round of the Belgian top flight. They might send out a more recognised team having headed over to London with a 1-0 lead, but the main ambition may be to defend in numbers and frustrate the Premier League club like they did in Belgium last week.

However Gent were hammered at Shakhtar Donetsk, the club most closely linked to the level of Tottenham Hotspur, when they met in the Group Stage of this competition. Gent have not played as well on their travels as they have at home in recent months and I am going to back the home team to win by a margin that sends them through to the Last 16 without the need for extra time.


Genk v Astra Pick: Neither Genk nor Astra are considered a real threat to win the Europa League, but the winner of this tie will move through to the Last 16 where they could be potentially paired with a really big name of European Football. The tie looks to be in the balance after a 2-2 draw in the First Leg, although obviously Genk have the advantage of being able to go through with a low scoring draw.

I am not anticipating that to be the case as Astra have shown some attacking potential away from home in the Europa League this season. They are also a team that can capitulate when pressing too far forward, but there is no choice for Astra as they need to either win 0-1 or score at least twice to get anything out of this tie.

That should mean Genk have opportunities on the counter attack, even though they have lost some big players in January, and we should seen an open contest as long as Astra still have a chance. If Genk do move into a 2-0 lead it is a game that could potentially fizzle out if the away side have just lost a bit of belief in what they are doing, but most other scorelines should see Astra really give this a go.

4 of 5 Astra away games in Europe this season have ended with at least three goals shared out and I will look for this to be another one.

MY PICKS: Bayer Leverkusen-Atletico Madrid Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.88 Betfair (1 Unit)
Manchester City-Monaco Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Juventus @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Derby County-Burton Albion Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Reading Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sheffield Wednesday @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bristol City-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fenerbahce @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
St-Etienne-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ajax - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fiorentina @ 2.50 Stan James (2 Units)
Fiorentina-Borussia Monchengladbach Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet365 (2 Units)
Genk-Astra Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

February Update: 20-31, - 11.86 Units (98 Units Staked, - 12.10% Yield)

January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 212-232-9, - 28.11 Units (872 Units Staked, - 3.22% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)