We are down to the final eight teams in both the Champions League and Europa League for the 2018/19 season and those Quarter Final ties are going to be played over the next ten days.
With UEFA going back to the formula they used a few years ago in drawing the Quarter Final ties and Semi Final ties at the same time, managers and fans can begin to plot the paths and decide which teams they believe will go on and compete in the Finals.
I wish I could say I was looking forward to doing the same, but the way things have panned out in the Champions League I really am beginning to fear the 'worse case scenario Final' is ready to come round. That is obviously Manchester City v Liverpool as the belief that two of Manchester United's biggest rivals are about to split the top trophies comes sharply into view.
Juventus, Barcelona and the other two English representatives in the Champions League Quarter Final may have something to say about that though.
Three of the four ties really do come with very strong storylines in the Champions League in this Round, but I have to suggest Liverpool are huge favourites to see off a Porto team they beat 5-0 in the Last 16 last season.
Ajax and Manchester United produced stunning away performances in the Last 16 Second Legs played last month, but both are considerable underdogs when they face Juventus and Barcelona respectively. Both also play at home this week and you have to think they can't afford to have the losses suffered in those Stadiums in the First Leg of the Last 16 ties if they are going to have a chance to progress to an unexpected Semi Final later this month.
Most will have Manchester City down as a strong favourite to beat Tottenham Hotspur too, but I think there is some intrigue attached to that tie. The current English Champions are playing a lot of football at the moment and you would think that is going to catch up with them, while Spurs are a team that can compete with the very best on their day.
Again the First Leg is of paramount importance to the underdog and if Tottenham Hotspur can take a lead to the Eithad Stadium next Wednesday then I do think they would have every chance of the upset in the tie.
In the Europa League it does look like Chelsea have been given a great chance to reach the Final and have two shots to make the Champions League having moved back into the top four. They should get the better of Slavia Prague and will be favoured to beat either Benfica or Eintracht Frankfurt, especially after the English clubs dominated two of the best Bundesliga teams in the Champions League.
Arsenal's path looks much trickier as they need to overcome Napoli and then either Valencia or Villarreal and it would not be a huge upset if they fail to reach the Semi Final. The First Leg in North London this week is vital for Arsenal if they are going to have a chance of knocking out a Napoli team that may be focusing on the Europa League with their Champions League spot virtually secure from their League form.
Below you can read my thoughts on the Champions League and Europa League First Legs to be played this week- I have covered all of the ties involving the English teams as well as the Quarter Final between Ajax and Juventus in the Champions League.
Liverpool v Porto Pick: Late goals have kept the momentum behind Liverpool as far as the Premier League title challenge is concerned, but the recent performances have come under the strain of expectation from a fanbase desperate for a first English title since 1990.
It hasn't been a real help for Liverpool, but they are battling hard and winning games breeds confidence more often than not.
On Tuesday they return to the Champions League and I think there is going to be a little more freedom about Liverpool. This is a team who have played some of their best football in the Champions League over the last eighteen months and Anfield has proved to be a very difficult environment for teams to come in and compete against them.
They had won 5 in a row in the Champions League at Anfield prior to the goalless draw with Bayern Munich, but I am not sure Porto can be as defensively sound as the German Champions were that day.
Porto lost in Rome in the last Round and had to turn things around at home, but they will be wary of Liverpool having been crushed by them in the Second Round last season. They did manage a goalless draw at Anfield, but that had a lot to do with Liverpool having a 0-5 lead from the First Leg and I think the intensity will be much greater for the home team in this one.
Jurgen Klopp is going to want a healthy lead to take to Portugal next week so Liverpool can completely focus on the big Premier League game with Chelsea this weekend. Having a big lead could also give the manager a chance to rest some key players for the League fixtures ahead and I think Porto are the ideal team for Liverpool to face in the Quarter Final as they fight on two fronts.
I have to give Porto some respect having had a 6 game unbeaten run away from home in the Champions League before losing in Rome last time out. However they have benefited from kind draws and this is a huge test for a team who have been beaten by Benfica on multiple occasions already this season.
The visitors will want to make sure there is all to play for in the Second Leg next week, but I think Liverpool are too good for them and can win by a healthy margin.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: This is an intriguing Champions League Quarter Final as Manchester City have to face another Premier League club for the second season in a row at this stage of the competition. Last season they were beaten at Anfield 3-0 in the First Leg and could not recover, but Manchester City are strong favourites to see off Tottenham Hotspur.
Kevin De Bruyne downplayed the significance of the game being held at Tottenham Hotspur's new Stadium, but I really don't know what kind of factor this will be. The atmosphere will be far more intense than it would have been if the game was played at Wembley Stadium although I do think there are other factors at play in the First Leg.
The main one is the issue of potential fatigue as Tottenham Hotspur are well rested compared with Manchester City who had the tough FA Cup Semi Final win over Brighton to get through on Saturday. At the same time Tottenham Hotspur have not played since last Wednesday so if there is a time for them to snap their losing run to the defending Premier League Champions then this feels like it.
If both Kyle Walker and Sergio Aguero can't start it makes life that much tougher for Manchester City with injuries in defensive areas beginning to pile up while Gabriel Jesus is simply not as clinical as the Argentinian he is replacing. In games out of the international break Manchester City have been more functional than blistering as they are looking to manage their way through games and I think Tottenham Hotspur are a good enough team to take advantage.
I am not sure Spurs have enough to win the game, but I think they have the pace and power to cause significant problems for Manchester City. The poor run of 3 straight losses to Manchester City is a mental obstacle to overcome, but the schedule could not have worked much better for Tottenham Hotspur and the fans should bring their best to inspire the players with the first Champions League game held in the new Stadium.
It is not easy to oppose Manchester City, but I would be surprised if they are able to put this tie to bed in the First Leg. With that in mind I will recommend backing Tottenham Hotspur with the start on the Asian Handicap that will return half the stake in the event of a Manchester City win by a single goal margin.
Ajax v Juventus Pick: Fixtures like this are what the Champions League have been all about as the four time European Champions Ajax take on two time Winners Juventus in the Quarter Final.
You can't ignore the fact that Ajax are not the force of old, but this season could be a perfect storm for them as a group of talented youngsters have come together to produce a strong campaign. This group is not likely going to be together for very long, but they are in line to win a first Dutch title since 2014 and have already reached the Champions League Quarter Final for the first time since 2003.
It has not exactly been an easy path through the competition either as Ajax negotiated three Qualifying Rounds and have come out of a Group containing Bayern Munich and Benfica. The most memorable performance came in the Last 16 though as Ajax demolished Real Madrid 1-4 in the Santiago Bernebeu to take their place in the Quarter Final, although Juventus present a whole different level of challenge.
Cristiano Ronaldo is potentially missing for the Italian Champions, which is a significant blow, and there are some injury concerns in the squad that will raise doubts about the visitors. However Juventus remain in strong form and I do think the veteran experience is going to edge out the youthful exuberance of Ajax in this Quarter Final.
Juventus have previous for that when they beat Monaco very comfortably in the Champions League Semi Final in 2017. They won both Legs against a talented young side that season and I think Juventus are going to have a bit too much for Ajax who ran into a Real Madrid team that seemed unconcerned about defending in the last Round.
Defending is a strength for Juventus who have been decent travellers in the Champions League over the last two campaigns. The defeats to Young Boys and Atletico Madrid in back to back games might not suggest that, but Juventus had won 5 in a row away from home in the Champions League prior to those results and I think they will be able to take an advantage back to Turin.
The absence of Ronaldo is a concern, but even then I think Juventus can do enough and I will back them on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake in the event of a draw.
Manchester United v Barcelona Pick: It needed something special and a lot of good fortune for Manchester United to progress past Paris Saint-Germain in the Last 16 and I think they will need to ride their luck at times if they are going to reach a first Semi Final in the Champions League since the 2010/11 season.
Let's be honest for one moment- PSG bottled the Second Leg as much as Manchester United won it and it started with a ridiculous back pass to send Romelu Lukaku through on goal and then a blunder from Gianluigi Buffon for a second goal.
Even then Manchester United needed the intervention of VAR to secure an injury time penalty in the 1-3 win in Paris on a crazy evening full of emotion. I was just as giddy as anyone out there, but in the cold light of day you do realise it is going to take something outrageous for Manchester United to beat the other big guns in the competition.
Facing Barcelona in the Quarter Final is about as tough a draw as they could have received and the First Leg is crucial for Manchester United. Produce the same result as the Paris Saint-Germain Home Leg and I think you can draw the curtain on the competition, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer may be able to take more risks knowing he has been given the permanent job as manager of the club.
Ultimately Manchester United have to take risks if they want a lead to take to the Nou Camp next week and that means trying to get after a Barcelona defence that is far from watertight. The problem is leaving yourself exposed to the supreme attacking talents the visitors will be able to put on the field even if Barcelona have not been the best travellers in the Champions League in recent years.
A rested Manchester United should cause more problems on the counter attack for Barcelona with the pace in the final third. I do think that will be the case on Wednesday, although Barcelona are rightly favoured with their dominance in midfield likely leading to plenty of chances.
Manchester United scoring 1 goal in 5 home Champions League games is a real concern, but I don't believe Barcelona can keep a clean sheet, although the same applies to the home team. A 1-1 scoreline might actually suit both teams, but I think there will be enough chances in this game at both ends of the field to see at least three goals shared out in what is a classic European tie between two giants of the sport.
Arsenal v Napoli Pick: The Europa League might have been derided in some quarters in England, but this has become a competition of real importance with the opportunity of returning to the Champions League for the winner. With that bonus now attached to the trophy, English clubs have begun to really take this competition seriously and we have seen Manchester United win it in 2017 and Arsenal reach the Semi Final in 2018.
After losing 1-0 at Everton some Arsenal fans may feel the Europa League path is the best one back into the Champions League, but they have received a very tough draw for the Quarter Final.
Napoli don't look as strong as previous seasons, but there is still plenty of quality in the side and unlike Arsenal they are almost certainly secured of a top four finish in their domestic League. That means they can perhaps put more stock into trying to win the Europa League by resting players between this Quarter Final and I am anticipating a very close tie.
Neither team travels as well as they play at home so Arsenal could be frustrated they have had to switch the venue of the First and Second Leg as Chelsea are playing in London next week. UEFA didn't want both playing at home on the same MatchDay, so Arsenal have been forced to play the Home Leg first when they clearly would have preferred it the other way around.
In the last two Rounds Arsenal have recovered First Leg deficits at the Emirates Stadium, but I think the situation is similar albeit playing at home first this time. Unai Emery will know Arsenal need a lead to take to Naples so I imagine the intensity will be the same as if they were trailing from the First Leg.
Arsenal have been very good at home, although defensively they remain vulnerable. Teams might not have taken advantage, but Napoli are capable and I would not be surprised if they take an away goal back with them.
However I think Arsenal are good enough to edge the First Leg. Napoli have lost 2 of their 5 away European ties this season including a defeat in England to Liverpool. They have also failed to win in Crvena Zvezda, while recent form has been inconsistent. At least Arsenal have remained strong at home with a 7 game winning run to extend here and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to have a lead going into next week's Second Leg.
Slavia Prague v Chelsea Pick: I don't think anyone associated with Chelsea will be making assumptions about how far they can go in the Europa League, but the fans have to be excited with the way the draw has panned out for them. It looks like Chelsea are facing the weakest of the teams remaining in the last eight of the competition, but overlooking Slavia Prague would be a mistake.
In the last few seasons Slavia Prague have really improved both domestically and in Europe and their win over Sevilla in the Last 16 is an exceptional performance.
They did need Extra Time to secure the win and Slavia Prague have won just 2 of their 6 home European ties this season. The side are unbeaten in those games, but it is clear that Slavia Prague still have a way to go to bridge the gap to the very top teams in Europe and will need to ride their luck a little bit if they are going to see off Chelsea in this Quarter Final.
It looks a long shot, especially as Chelsea have been very comfortable in the Europa League so far this season. The Blues have won 9 of 10 Europa League ties and they have begun to score a few goals in those wins having beaten Malmo 5-1 and Dynamo Kiev 8-0 on aggregate in the Knock Out Rounds.
You have to believe that Slavia Prague will know their best chance of winning this tie is by having an advantage to take to West London next weekend and that could make this a fairly open First Leg. Chelsea have shown they can score goals away from home in the Europa League too and I think the two teams could combine for three or more on the day.
I'd be surprised if Chelsea do not have enough to win this tie and move into the Semi Final, but the First Leg could be a competitive outing and I will look for goals to be shared out on the evening.
MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred
Tottenham Hotspur + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor
Juventus - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365
Manchester United-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook
Arsenal - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor
Slavia Prague-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Bet Victor
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Showing posts with label First Leg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label First Leg. Show all posts
Tuesday, 9 April 2019
Tuesday, 24 April 2018
Midweek Football Picks 2018 (April 24-26)
It was a great weekend to be a Manchester United fan after seeing the side recover from a goal down to beat Tottenham Hotspur in the FA Cup Semi Final.
A 2nd place Premier League finish and a Cup success would constitute a better than average season, although Chelsea will be anything but a walkover in the Final on 19th May.
That's for another day and the focus this midweek for general Football fans will be on the four European Semi Final First Legs to be played from Tuesday through to Thursday. All have their own intrigue and it is a big week for the teams involved as they can smell European success now they have reached the last four of the Champions League/Europa League.
Liverpool v Roma Pick: This may be the Semi Final that all Liverpool fans would have been hoping for when the draw was made a couple of weeks ago, but no one at the club will be overlooking a Roma team who have overachieved to get to this stage of the competition.
The 3-0 win over Barcelona in the Quarter Final Second Leg to overturn a 4-1 First Leg defeat will live long in the memory for Roma fans, but they won't want the journey to end.
It is going to be a pivotal opening half hour for Roma in an intense Anfield atmosphere which saw Manchester City crumble in the Quarter Final First Leg. Roma have to make sure they don't give too much away if they are going to have a chance to keep the Second Leg alive.
Unfortunately Roma have not travelled well in the Champions League this season and have conceded at least twice in away games at Chelsea, Atletico Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk and Barcelona. They are facing a Liverpool team who can score plenty of goals at home and Roma were beaten in the last 3 away games in the Champions League.
However they have scored in all but one away game and came back from 2-0 down at Chelsea to earn a 3-3 draw. Away goals could be critical for Roma and they will be going up against a Liverpool defence which has kept 4 straight home clean sheets in the Champions League.
My lean is that Roma will struggle in Liverpool like they have in recent away Champions League games. They could play a part by getting on the scoreboard though and Roma can be in a position where the Second Leg is the pivotal one in this Semi Final tie.
Realistically though I think Liverpool will win a high-scoring First Leg with Roma's defensive shape not as strong away from home in this competition. Backing the home team to win a game featuring three or more goals at odds against looks a decent price.
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid Pick: Both Champions League Semi Final ties have their intrigue, but the one that will capture the imagination of most fans comes between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.
It says something about how much Bayern Munich did not want to play Real Madrid that the likes of Arturo Vidal were seen watching the final minutes from Madrid in the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg rather than his team's own Second Leg against Sevilla.
The disgust at what was initially perceived a controversial decision by Michael Oliver to hand Real Madrid a final minute penalty might have been down to the reminder of the injustice Bayern Munich felt last season. They missed a penalty at half time in the First Leg to move 2-0 ahead before losing 1-2 at home and in the Second Leg a controversial Arturo Vidal sending off meant Bayern Munich were overwhelmed in Extra Time after winning 1-2 in normal time in the Bernebeu.
It will be important for Bayern Munich to use that energy in the right way on Wednesday with the fans likely to be intense and the players fully reminded of how the Quarter Final played out last season. There is plenty of experience to think Bayern Munich will handle the occasion in a positive manner, but the dangers Real Madrid pose will also be clear to all.
Real Madrid are 'all in' when it comes to the Champions League and wins in Borussia Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus underlines the danger they pose to Bayern Munich. Cristiano Ronaldo continues to produce goals in big games and Bayern Munich have lost their last couple of home games against Real Madrid which will be on the minds of everyone associated with the club.
I can't see a low-scoring game here and neither can the layers.
Picking a winner is more difficult but I am going to lean towards Bayern Munich to find a way to get into a lead ahead of the Second Leg. They weren't very good against Sevilla, but I think that was a game they were very comfortable in and I think Bayern Munich will be looking to right the perceived wrongs from last season.
Real Madrid have enough quality to play their part in the First Leg too, but I will back Bayern Munich to earn the lead with the goals they have been scoring. They likely need two goals, at least, to win and I will back them to win a game featuring three or more goals at a big price.
Arsenal v Atletico Madrid Pick: Arsene Wenger is hoping his decision to announce his departure from Arsenal as manager at the end of the season will unify the fan base for one strong push to end the campaign.
Winning the Europa League will give Arsenal a chance to return to the Champions League, but this was the Semi Final opponent they were hoping to avoid.
However it has to be said that Atletico Madrid have not been in the best recent form, especially away from home where they have lost 4 of their last 6 in all competitions. The performance in the 1-0 defeat in Lisbon to Sporting was not good enough from Atletico Madrid and will give Arsenal hope they are perhaps playing them at the right time.
The First Leg at the Emirates Stadium is huge for Arsenal who simply have not turned up on their travels far too often throughout the 2017/18 season. They have been in fine form here in recent weeks with their last 6 all won while scoring at least three times in each.
The concern has to be the continued defensive lapses which have seen the likes of Milan, CSKA Moscow score away goals in the Europa League and Southampton and West Ham United score goals in losses here in the Premier League. Atletico Madrid have more than enough attacking talent to score here too and I think they will get an away goal having scored at Leicester City and Chelsea over the last thirteen months in European away games.
However I also think Arsenal have played with enough confidence at home to score too and I will simply look for both teams to score here.
Marseille v Salzburg Pick: These teams met in two low-scoring games in the Europa League Group Stage earlier this season, but there is a lot more on the line when Marseille and Salzburg meet in the Semi Final tie over the next eight days.
Both teams have shown considerable heart and determination to come through the Knock Out Rounds already and that should mean there is plenty of confidence on display from the players on the field.
Despite the goalless draw between these teams in the Group Stage, I do have to lean towards Marseille having a lead from the First Leg. They have won 7 of their 8 home Europa League games and Marseille have scored 10 goals in their last couple of games here
Marseille have also scored at least three times in their last 3 home Europa League games and they are facing a Salzburg team who do have a tendency to concede plenty of goals on their travels.
I do expect the home team to score at least twice in this one, but Marseille will have to be aware of the threat Salzburg pose on the counter attack. Salzburg have scored twice in Real Sociedad, Borussia Dortmund and Lazio in the Knock Out Rounds and they certainly will feel they can score here.
Both teams should create the chances to get onto the scoreboard, but I will have a small interest in Marseille winning a game in which both teams have their successes.
MY PICKS: Liverpool Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Bayern Munich Win @ Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.62 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Arsenal-Atletico Madrid Both Teams to Score @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marseille Win and Both Teams to Score @ 3.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
A 2nd place Premier League finish and a Cup success would constitute a better than average season, although Chelsea will be anything but a walkover in the Final on 19th May.
That's for another day and the focus this midweek for general Football fans will be on the four European Semi Final First Legs to be played from Tuesday through to Thursday. All have their own intrigue and it is a big week for the teams involved as they can smell European success now they have reached the last four of the Champions League/Europa League.
Liverpool v Roma Pick: This may be the Semi Final that all Liverpool fans would have been hoping for when the draw was made a couple of weeks ago, but no one at the club will be overlooking a Roma team who have overachieved to get to this stage of the competition.
The 3-0 win over Barcelona in the Quarter Final Second Leg to overturn a 4-1 First Leg defeat will live long in the memory for Roma fans, but they won't want the journey to end.
It is going to be a pivotal opening half hour for Roma in an intense Anfield atmosphere which saw Manchester City crumble in the Quarter Final First Leg. Roma have to make sure they don't give too much away if they are going to have a chance to keep the Second Leg alive.
Unfortunately Roma have not travelled well in the Champions League this season and have conceded at least twice in away games at Chelsea, Atletico Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk and Barcelona. They are facing a Liverpool team who can score plenty of goals at home and Roma were beaten in the last 3 away games in the Champions League.
However they have scored in all but one away game and came back from 2-0 down at Chelsea to earn a 3-3 draw. Away goals could be critical for Roma and they will be going up against a Liverpool defence which has kept 4 straight home clean sheets in the Champions League.
My lean is that Roma will struggle in Liverpool like they have in recent away Champions League games. They could play a part by getting on the scoreboard though and Roma can be in a position where the Second Leg is the pivotal one in this Semi Final tie.
Realistically though I think Liverpool will win a high-scoring First Leg with Roma's defensive shape not as strong away from home in this competition. Backing the home team to win a game featuring three or more goals at odds against looks a decent price.
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid Pick: Both Champions League Semi Final ties have their intrigue, but the one that will capture the imagination of most fans comes between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.
It says something about how much Bayern Munich did not want to play Real Madrid that the likes of Arturo Vidal were seen watching the final minutes from Madrid in the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg rather than his team's own Second Leg against Sevilla.
The disgust at what was initially perceived a controversial decision by Michael Oliver to hand Real Madrid a final minute penalty might have been down to the reminder of the injustice Bayern Munich felt last season. They missed a penalty at half time in the First Leg to move 2-0 ahead before losing 1-2 at home and in the Second Leg a controversial Arturo Vidal sending off meant Bayern Munich were overwhelmed in Extra Time after winning 1-2 in normal time in the Bernebeu.
It will be important for Bayern Munich to use that energy in the right way on Wednesday with the fans likely to be intense and the players fully reminded of how the Quarter Final played out last season. There is plenty of experience to think Bayern Munich will handle the occasion in a positive manner, but the dangers Real Madrid pose will also be clear to all.
Real Madrid are 'all in' when it comes to the Champions League and wins in Borussia Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus underlines the danger they pose to Bayern Munich. Cristiano Ronaldo continues to produce goals in big games and Bayern Munich have lost their last couple of home games against Real Madrid which will be on the minds of everyone associated with the club.
I can't see a low-scoring game here and neither can the layers.
Picking a winner is more difficult but I am going to lean towards Bayern Munich to find a way to get into a lead ahead of the Second Leg. They weren't very good against Sevilla, but I think that was a game they were very comfortable in and I think Bayern Munich will be looking to right the perceived wrongs from last season.
Real Madrid have enough quality to play their part in the First Leg too, but I will back Bayern Munich to earn the lead with the goals they have been scoring. They likely need two goals, at least, to win and I will back them to win a game featuring three or more goals at a big price.
Arsenal v Atletico Madrid Pick: Arsene Wenger is hoping his decision to announce his departure from Arsenal as manager at the end of the season will unify the fan base for one strong push to end the campaign.
Winning the Europa League will give Arsenal a chance to return to the Champions League, but this was the Semi Final opponent they were hoping to avoid.
However it has to be said that Atletico Madrid have not been in the best recent form, especially away from home where they have lost 4 of their last 6 in all competitions. The performance in the 1-0 defeat in Lisbon to Sporting was not good enough from Atletico Madrid and will give Arsenal hope they are perhaps playing them at the right time.
The First Leg at the Emirates Stadium is huge for Arsenal who simply have not turned up on their travels far too often throughout the 2017/18 season. They have been in fine form here in recent weeks with their last 6 all won while scoring at least three times in each.
The concern has to be the continued defensive lapses which have seen the likes of Milan, CSKA Moscow score away goals in the Europa League and Southampton and West Ham United score goals in losses here in the Premier League. Atletico Madrid have more than enough attacking talent to score here too and I think they will get an away goal having scored at Leicester City and Chelsea over the last thirteen months in European away games.
However I also think Arsenal have played with enough confidence at home to score too and I will simply look for both teams to score here.
Marseille v Salzburg Pick: These teams met in two low-scoring games in the Europa League Group Stage earlier this season, but there is a lot more on the line when Marseille and Salzburg meet in the Semi Final tie over the next eight days.
Both teams have shown considerable heart and determination to come through the Knock Out Rounds already and that should mean there is plenty of confidence on display from the players on the field.
Despite the goalless draw between these teams in the Group Stage, I do have to lean towards Marseille having a lead from the First Leg. They have won 7 of their 8 home Europa League games and Marseille have scored 10 goals in their last couple of games here
Marseille have also scored at least three times in their last 3 home Europa League games and they are facing a Salzburg team who do have a tendency to concede plenty of goals on their travels.
I do expect the home team to score at least twice in this one, but Marseille will have to be aware of the threat Salzburg pose on the counter attack. Salzburg have scored twice in Real Sociedad, Borussia Dortmund and Lazio in the Knock Out Rounds and they certainly will feel they can score here.
Both teams should create the chances to get onto the scoreboard, but I will have a small interest in Marseille winning a game in which both teams have their successes.
MY PICKS: Liverpool Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Bayern Munich Win @ Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.62 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Arsenal-Atletico Madrid Both Teams to Score @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marseille Win and Both Teams to Score @ 3.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tuesday, 3 April 2018
Midweek Football Picks 2018 (April 3-5)
It is still a little sore looking at the Champions League Quarter Final line up and wondering how Manchester United are not a part of the last eight in the competition this season.
Hopefully the football on the pitch will help me move on with some quality looking fixtures to come on Tuesday and Wednesday before some good looking ties in the Europa League Quarter Final with those four ties set to play their First Legs on Thursday.
At this moment you would have to say that there looks to be a couple of clear winners in both the Champions League and Europa League Quarter Finals and then a couple of ties which look pretty finely balanced.
We will have a different view by Friday morning once the First Leg matches are in the books.
Juventus v Real Madrid Pick: This looks to be a quality Champions League tie in the making and I am not surprised that the layers are finding it difficult to separate Juventus and Real Madrid in the First Leg.
Both teams will have their ambitions from the First Leg, but you have to think Juventus must believe they are going to need a lead to take to the Spanish capital next week.
That should perhaps enable a very good game of football to develop with the way these two teams end up matching one another.
I would have to expect Juventus will play an attacking brand and try and force the lead, but that may also leave them a little open for the counter attack. Real Madrid showed in Paris Saint-Germain they still pose a real threat going forward, but they are a team that can be vulnerable defensively and it should mean Juventus have their own successes going forward.
Defensively Juventus have not looked as strong as previous years though and I think that is where Real Madrid will also play their part in an exciting fixture.
The last 10 Real Madrid away Champions League games have featured three or more goals shared out, while 4 of the last 6 Juventus home Champions League ties have done the same. The 2-1 scoreline from 2015 when these teams last played here is a real consideration for the outcome of this tie, and the last 3 times Juventus have hosted Real Madrid there have been at least three goals scored each time.
At odds against I do think the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing goals in this one.
With the two teams approach to the fixture, I think Real Madrid and Juventus will combine for three or more goals in this one and I will back that to be the outcome of this one at odds against.
Sevilla v Bayern Munich Pick: The Champions League Quarter Final matches look to be decent ties, but there are a couple of them where there looks to be a clear winner.
One of those is Bayern Munich in their Quarter Final against Sevilla and I don't believe the German Champions will make the same mistakes Manchester United did in both Legs of their Last 16 tie against Sevilla.
The First Leg is still intriguing with Sevilla showing toughness at home and they will have been encouraged with the way they played for large parts of the 2-2 draw with Barcelona on Saturday. They led 2-0 that day and will believe they can trouble Bayern Munich, although I do worry about a team who have conceded as many home goals as Sevilla have of late.
Sevilla have also drawn 3 of their 5 home Champions League ties this season and were 0-3 down to Liverpool in one of those which again would concern me if I was a fan of the Spanish club.
Bayern Munich are also playing as well as any team remaining in the competition and they have been very strong on their travels in the Champions League. The side have won 5 of their last 6 away games in the Champions League including the last 3 in a row and they have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks which will encourage them to come to Sevilla and express themselves.
They have scored at least twice in each of their 5 away wins in the Champions League over the last twelve months including a 1-2 win at Real Madrid before going down in extra time last season. With the attacking options Bayern Munich have at their disposal, I do expect they will break down this Sevilla team who have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 4 home games which is not a good look.
The away side are short enough in the prices, but they are just under odds against to win a game which features two or more goals and I do think Bayern Munich could hit that number themselves. They likely need to score at least twice to win here, but I do think Bayern Munich can do that and I will back them to secure a First Leg lead which sets them up for passage through to the Semi Final.
Barcelona v Roma Pick: It feels like it would be a pretty big surprise if Barcelona are not able to beat Roma in the Champions League Quarter Final over the next seven days even if I remain a little unconvinced about how strong this current Barcelona side are.
This has been a season in which Roma have overachieved in the Champions League but they have to be respected for some of the performances they have produced.
The stand out performances came against Chelsea in the Group Stage, but Barcelona may be a tougher prospect for a group of players who will remember the 6-1 defeat here in the Group Stage two seasons ago.
Roma have also been beaten at Atletico Madrid this season and they have been a poor travelling team in the Champions League. Now they have to face a Barcelona team who have won plenty of games at home both domestically and in the Champions League and who will have the majority of the ball in the First Leg as they look to build a lead to take to the Italian capital next week.
I do think Barcelona will come away with a lead and I think the control of the ball will restrict the chances Roma are able to create.
While I am not convinced Barcelona are as strong defensively as other teams in Europe, they have been good enough at home to earn plenty of clean sheets. Barcelona have only conceded 1 goal in 4 Champions League games here this season, while they have conceded just 2 goals in 12 at home in all competitions.
Barcelona may be able to play well enough to contain Roma in this First Leg too having beaten Italian Champions Juventus 3-0 in the Group Stage. Their visitors have already failed to score once in a defeat in Spain this season and I am going to back Barcelona to win this one with a clean sheet at odds against.
Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: All eyes in England will be on this Champions League Quarter Final as the two representatives remaining in the competition from the Premier League play one another.
Liverpool and Manchester City have already produced two high-scoring games in the Premier League and there is every chance the Champions League tie over the next seven days will also feature plenty of goals.
Both Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola will recognise how well the other's team have played when it comes to the attacking side of the game and both have to feel the biggest weakness of Liverpool and Manchester City are both in defensive areas.
I would be surprised if those vulnerabilities are not attacked in both Legs of this Champions League Quarter Final and I don't think either manager can play for a draw with the way they have defended at times. Both Liverpool and Manchester City have some tremendous attacking options which should be able to create chances against their defensive opponents and I am expecting to see at least four goals here.
Games between Liverpool and Manchester City at Anfield have produced plenty of goals in recent seasons including the 4-3 win for Liverpool back in January. That result has to give the home team confidence even though they are the home underdog and I think Liverpool have to be respected in this one.
Both managers will still approach this Quarter Final First Leg with the same philosophy that has worked well for them in the Premier League this season and so anything other than goals would be a real surprise. I expect to see plenty of attacking threat throughout this First Leg and I don't think either team will settle for a narrow win if they have got some momentum behind them.
With attack likely to be an important part of the game for both teams throughout this one, I will look for this to be the third game in the 2017/18 season between Liverpool and Manchester City that has at least four goals shared out.
Arsenal v CSKA Moscow Pick: This is arguably the best of the remaining seven teams that Arsenal could have faced in the Europa League Quarter Final, but anyone taking CSKA Moscow for granted could be in for a big surprise.
While Russian teams have not been the best of travellers in recent seasons, CSKA Moscow have shown some toughness this season and they have won 4 of 7 away European games. That includes wins at Benfica and Basel in the Champions League Group, but the most impressive victory came at Lyon in the Last 16 of the Europa League when CSKA Moscow overturned a 0-1 home defeat from the First Leg.
They also led at Old Trafford before losing 2-1 to Manchester United back in December and CSKA Moscow have to be respected against an Arsenal team that are still some way short of being in top gear.
It may be a positive for Arsenal fans that despite being a little below their best that their team have won 4 in a row in all competitions. They have won their last 3 at the Emirates Stadium while scoring three times each time against Watford, AC Milan and Stoke City although the absence of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is a real loss for the side.
Arsene Wenger has managed to rest some key players now and the return of Alexandre Lacazette is a bonus for his team and I do think Arsenal will have enough to win this one.
However I think CSKA Moscow have shown they can cause problems for teams with the pace they have and I think the Russian side will give themselves every chance of earning their place in the Semi Final. That will begin by at least earning an away goal at the Emirates Stadium and backing both teams to score at odds against looks a big price when you consider how well CSKA Moscow have been playing themselves.
Since CSKA Moscow entered the Champions League Group Stage, 4 of their 5 away European ties have ended with both teams scoring. Arsenal have conceded in 3 of their 5 home Europa League ties and both teams scoring at odds against looks the call in this one.
Atletico Madrid v Sporting Lisbon Pick: Just because a team looks to be the clear favourite in any competition they enter, there is still some hard work to do to make sure all the goals are achieved and that is true for Atletico Madrid who are five matches away from winning the Europa League.
A manager like Diego Simeone is unlikely to allow his players to become complacent and Atletico Madrid are rounding into magnificent form with 13 wins in 15 games in all competitions.
The First Leg at home looks a very good chance for Atletico Madrid to put themselves into a strong position in this Quarter Final. They have won 8 in a row at home in all competitions and kept clean sheets in each of those games, while Atletico Madrid have won 3 European home games with clean sheets in those too.
They could be facing Sporting Lisbon at the right time as the Portuguese team have lost half of their last 6 games in all competitions. Defeats in 3 of their last 4 away games has to be a concern for Sporting Lisbon who will try and frustrate Atletico Madrid and then hit them on the counter attack.
Sporting Lisbon are just not quite as good on their travels as they are at home and defeats in Barcelona and Juventus show they can struggle to compete at the level on which Atletico Madrid usually operate.
Scoring an away goal will be difficult for Sporting Lisbon in this Stadium and I think Atletico Madrid have found some real consistency going forward which makes them very dangerous. They have scored 18 goals in their 8 straight home wins and I think they are going to be earn a way into a very strong position at the end of this First Leg.
I will back Atletico Madrid to win by a couple of goals, at least, on the night at odds against.
Lazio v Salzburg Pick: For most people Lazio will be a clear favourite to get by Salzburg in this Europa League Quarter Final, but I think this has the making of a tough tie for them.
While they may play at a higher level more consistently, Salzburg have shown they can step up in the Europa League and beating clubs from Spain and Germany as the underdog will have given the players confidence. The success against Borussia Dortmund in the Last 16 was a particularly strong result for Salzburg and they have the makings of a team that can upset the odds for a third straight Round.
Salzburg have been unbeaten for a long time which will have given the players more belief in what they are trying to achieve, while they have proved tough to beat at European level with a run of 10 away ties without a defeat behind them.
Lazio have been strong at home, but they have drawn 2 of their last 3 Europa League ties here, while they had not won any of 4 home games prior to the win over ten man Benevento. While I accept Lazio are a tough team to beat, this could be a First Leg where Salzburg are able to do enough to secure a result to take back home.
It would be a surprise if Salzburg were able to win here, but they have played well enough to become the third team in four visits to Lazio to leave with a draw. I think that is worth a small interest in this First Leg of this Quarter Final in a tie where Lazio are odds on favourites to have a lead before the return in Salzburg next week.
Leipzig v Marseille Pick: Both Leipzig and Marseille are in a position to finish in the Champions League places domestically but both will also feel this is a Europa League Quarter Final tie they can win and move a step closer to earning their Champions League spot by winning this competition.
Both Leipzig and Marseille play a good brand of football and I do think there will be goals when they meet in the First Leg in Germany.
Leipzig have shown they have a team that can create chances against any they face, but they have also been defensively vulnerable and I expect that will show up here.
The only concern for me has to be the poor form Marseille showed away from home before the win in Athletic Bilbao. They hadn't been scoring many goals away from home in the Europa League, but they do come into this First Leg in decent form which eases those concerns.
I expect to see both teams have their opportunities in this one and I would expect the tie to be in the balance when they resume in the south of France next Thursday. With the kind of attacking players on show I will look for Leipzig and Marseille to combine for at least three goals in the First Leg.
MY PICKS: Juventus-Real Madrid Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bayern Munich Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Barcelona Win to Nil @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 William Hill (2 Units)
Arsenal-CSKA Moscow Both Teams to Score @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lazio-Salzburg Draw @ 3.75 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Leipzig-Marseille Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Hopefully the football on the pitch will help me move on with some quality looking fixtures to come on Tuesday and Wednesday before some good looking ties in the Europa League Quarter Final with those four ties set to play their First Legs on Thursday.
At this moment you would have to say that there looks to be a couple of clear winners in both the Champions League and Europa League Quarter Finals and then a couple of ties which look pretty finely balanced.
We will have a different view by Friday morning once the First Leg matches are in the books.
Juventus v Real Madrid Pick: This looks to be a quality Champions League tie in the making and I am not surprised that the layers are finding it difficult to separate Juventus and Real Madrid in the First Leg.
Both teams will have their ambitions from the First Leg, but you have to think Juventus must believe they are going to need a lead to take to the Spanish capital next week.
That should perhaps enable a very good game of football to develop with the way these two teams end up matching one another.
I would have to expect Juventus will play an attacking brand and try and force the lead, but that may also leave them a little open for the counter attack. Real Madrid showed in Paris Saint-Germain they still pose a real threat going forward, but they are a team that can be vulnerable defensively and it should mean Juventus have their own successes going forward.
Defensively Juventus have not looked as strong as previous years though and I think that is where Real Madrid will also play their part in an exciting fixture.
The last 10 Real Madrid away Champions League games have featured three or more goals shared out, while 4 of the last 6 Juventus home Champions League ties have done the same. The 2-1 scoreline from 2015 when these teams last played here is a real consideration for the outcome of this tie, and the last 3 times Juventus have hosted Real Madrid there have been at least three goals scored each time.
At odds against I do think the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing goals in this one.
With the two teams approach to the fixture, I think Real Madrid and Juventus will combine for three or more goals in this one and I will back that to be the outcome of this one at odds against.
Sevilla v Bayern Munich Pick: The Champions League Quarter Final matches look to be decent ties, but there are a couple of them where there looks to be a clear winner.
One of those is Bayern Munich in their Quarter Final against Sevilla and I don't believe the German Champions will make the same mistakes Manchester United did in both Legs of their Last 16 tie against Sevilla.
The First Leg is still intriguing with Sevilla showing toughness at home and they will have been encouraged with the way they played for large parts of the 2-2 draw with Barcelona on Saturday. They led 2-0 that day and will believe they can trouble Bayern Munich, although I do worry about a team who have conceded as many home goals as Sevilla have of late.
Sevilla have also drawn 3 of their 5 home Champions League ties this season and were 0-3 down to Liverpool in one of those which again would concern me if I was a fan of the Spanish club.
Bayern Munich are also playing as well as any team remaining in the competition and they have been very strong on their travels in the Champions League. The side have won 5 of their last 6 away games in the Champions League including the last 3 in a row and they have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks which will encourage them to come to Sevilla and express themselves.
They have scored at least twice in each of their 5 away wins in the Champions League over the last twelve months including a 1-2 win at Real Madrid before going down in extra time last season. With the attacking options Bayern Munich have at their disposal, I do expect they will break down this Sevilla team who have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 4 home games which is not a good look.
The away side are short enough in the prices, but they are just under odds against to win a game which features two or more goals and I do think Bayern Munich could hit that number themselves. They likely need to score at least twice to win here, but I do think Bayern Munich can do that and I will back them to secure a First Leg lead which sets them up for passage through to the Semi Final.
Barcelona v Roma Pick: It feels like it would be a pretty big surprise if Barcelona are not able to beat Roma in the Champions League Quarter Final over the next seven days even if I remain a little unconvinced about how strong this current Barcelona side are.
This has been a season in which Roma have overachieved in the Champions League but they have to be respected for some of the performances they have produced.
The stand out performances came against Chelsea in the Group Stage, but Barcelona may be a tougher prospect for a group of players who will remember the 6-1 defeat here in the Group Stage two seasons ago.
Roma have also been beaten at Atletico Madrid this season and they have been a poor travelling team in the Champions League. Now they have to face a Barcelona team who have won plenty of games at home both domestically and in the Champions League and who will have the majority of the ball in the First Leg as they look to build a lead to take to the Italian capital next week.
I do think Barcelona will come away with a lead and I think the control of the ball will restrict the chances Roma are able to create.
While I am not convinced Barcelona are as strong defensively as other teams in Europe, they have been good enough at home to earn plenty of clean sheets. Barcelona have only conceded 1 goal in 4 Champions League games here this season, while they have conceded just 2 goals in 12 at home in all competitions.
Barcelona may be able to play well enough to contain Roma in this First Leg too having beaten Italian Champions Juventus 3-0 in the Group Stage. Their visitors have already failed to score once in a defeat in Spain this season and I am going to back Barcelona to win this one with a clean sheet at odds against.
Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: All eyes in England will be on this Champions League Quarter Final as the two representatives remaining in the competition from the Premier League play one another.
Liverpool and Manchester City have already produced two high-scoring games in the Premier League and there is every chance the Champions League tie over the next seven days will also feature plenty of goals.
Both Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola will recognise how well the other's team have played when it comes to the attacking side of the game and both have to feel the biggest weakness of Liverpool and Manchester City are both in defensive areas.
I would be surprised if those vulnerabilities are not attacked in both Legs of this Champions League Quarter Final and I don't think either manager can play for a draw with the way they have defended at times. Both Liverpool and Manchester City have some tremendous attacking options which should be able to create chances against their defensive opponents and I am expecting to see at least four goals here.
Games between Liverpool and Manchester City at Anfield have produced plenty of goals in recent seasons including the 4-3 win for Liverpool back in January. That result has to give the home team confidence even though they are the home underdog and I think Liverpool have to be respected in this one.
Both managers will still approach this Quarter Final First Leg with the same philosophy that has worked well for them in the Premier League this season and so anything other than goals would be a real surprise. I expect to see plenty of attacking threat throughout this First Leg and I don't think either team will settle for a narrow win if they have got some momentum behind them.
With attack likely to be an important part of the game for both teams throughout this one, I will look for this to be the third game in the 2017/18 season between Liverpool and Manchester City that has at least four goals shared out.
Arsenal v CSKA Moscow Pick: This is arguably the best of the remaining seven teams that Arsenal could have faced in the Europa League Quarter Final, but anyone taking CSKA Moscow for granted could be in for a big surprise.
While Russian teams have not been the best of travellers in recent seasons, CSKA Moscow have shown some toughness this season and they have won 4 of 7 away European games. That includes wins at Benfica and Basel in the Champions League Group, but the most impressive victory came at Lyon in the Last 16 of the Europa League when CSKA Moscow overturned a 0-1 home defeat from the First Leg.
They also led at Old Trafford before losing 2-1 to Manchester United back in December and CSKA Moscow have to be respected against an Arsenal team that are still some way short of being in top gear.
It may be a positive for Arsenal fans that despite being a little below their best that their team have won 4 in a row in all competitions. They have won their last 3 at the Emirates Stadium while scoring three times each time against Watford, AC Milan and Stoke City although the absence of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is a real loss for the side.
Arsene Wenger has managed to rest some key players now and the return of Alexandre Lacazette is a bonus for his team and I do think Arsenal will have enough to win this one.
However I think CSKA Moscow have shown they can cause problems for teams with the pace they have and I think the Russian side will give themselves every chance of earning their place in the Semi Final. That will begin by at least earning an away goal at the Emirates Stadium and backing both teams to score at odds against looks a big price when you consider how well CSKA Moscow have been playing themselves.
Since CSKA Moscow entered the Champions League Group Stage, 4 of their 5 away European ties have ended with both teams scoring. Arsenal have conceded in 3 of their 5 home Europa League ties and both teams scoring at odds against looks the call in this one.
Atletico Madrid v Sporting Lisbon Pick: Just because a team looks to be the clear favourite in any competition they enter, there is still some hard work to do to make sure all the goals are achieved and that is true for Atletico Madrid who are five matches away from winning the Europa League.
A manager like Diego Simeone is unlikely to allow his players to become complacent and Atletico Madrid are rounding into magnificent form with 13 wins in 15 games in all competitions.
The First Leg at home looks a very good chance for Atletico Madrid to put themselves into a strong position in this Quarter Final. They have won 8 in a row at home in all competitions and kept clean sheets in each of those games, while Atletico Madrid have won 3 European home games with clean sheets in those too.
They could be facing Sporting Lisbon at the right time as the Portuguese team have lost half of their last 6 games in all competitions. Defeats in 3 of their last 4 away games has to be a concern for Sporting Lisbon who will try and frustrate Atletico Madrid and then hit them on the counter attack.
Sporting Lisbon are just not quite as good on their travels as they are at home and defeats in Barcelona and Juventus show they can struggle to compete at the level on which Atletico Madrid usually operate.
Scoring an away goal will be difficult for Sporting Lisbon in this Stadium and I think Atletico Madrid have found some real consistency going forward which makes them very dangerous. They have scored 18 goals in their 8 straight home wins and I think they are going to be earn a way into a very strong position at the end of this First Leg.
I will back Atletico Madrid to win by a couple of goals, at least, on the night at odds against.
Lazio v Salzburg Pick: For most people Lazio will be a clear favourite to get by Salzburg in this Europa League Quarter Final, but I think this has the making of a tough tie for them.
While they may play at a higher level more consistently, Salzburg have shown they can step up in the Europa League and beating clubs from Spain and Germany as the underdog will have given the players confidence. The success against Borussia Dortmund in the Last 16 was a particularly strong result for Salzburg and they have the makings of a team that can upset the odds for a third straight Round.
Salzburg have been unbeaten for a long time which will have given the players more belief in what they are trying to achieve, while they have proved tough to beat at European level with a run of 10 away ties without a defeat behind them.
Lazio have been strong at home, but they have drawn 2 of their last 3 Europa League ties here, while they had not won any of 4 home games prior to the win over ten man Benevento. While I accept Lazio are a tough team to beat, this could be a First Leg where Salzburg are able to do enough to secure a result to take back home.
It would be a surprise if Salzburg were able to win here, but they have played well enough to become the third team in four visits to Lazio to leave with a draw. I think that is worth a small interest in this First Leg of this Quarter Final in a tie where Lazio are odds on favourites to have a lead before the return in Salzburg next week.
Leipzig v Marseille Pick: Both Leipzig and Marseille are in a position to finish in the Champions League places domestically but both will also feel this is a Europa League Quarter Final tie they can win and move a step closer to earning their Champions League spot by winning this competition.
Both Leipzig and Marseille play a good brand of football and I do think there will be goals when they meet in the First Leg in Germany.
Leipzig have shown they have a team that can create chances against any they face, but they have also been defensively vulnerable and I expect that will show up here.
The only concern for me has to be the poor form Marseille showed away from home before the win in Athletic Bilbao. They hadn't been scoring many goals away from home in the Europa League, but they do come into this First Leg in decent form which eases those concerns.
I expect to see both teams have their opportunities in this one and I would expect the tie to be in the balance when they resume in the south of France next Thursday. With the kind of attacking players on show I will look for Leipzig and Marseille to combine for at least three goals in the First Leg.
MY PICKS: Juventus-Real Madrid Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bayern Munich Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Barcelona Win to Nil @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 William Hill (2 Units)
Arsenal-CSKA Moscow Both Teams to Score @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lazio-Salzburg Draw @ 3.75 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Leipzig-Marseille Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tuesday, 6 March 2018
Midweek Football Picks 2018 (March 6-8)
The Champions League Quarter Final line up will begin to take shape by the end of Wednesday evening with half of the last eight teams confirming their places in the next Round of the competition.
This week is also an important one in the Europa League with the Last 16 First Legs due to be played on Thursday.
The focus on Tuesday will likely be on the big game in Paris where PSG take on Real Madrid, before Juventus head to Wembley Stadium to take on a Tottenham Hotspur team who have the narrow advantage from the First Leg of their Second Round tie.
Liverpool v Porto Pick: The Champions League saw Paris Saint-Germain blow a huge Second Round lead in their defeat to Barcelona twelve months ago, but I would argue that Porto overturning their 0-5 home loss to Liverpool from the First Leg would be an even bigger upset.
Let’s cut to the chase- that isn’t happening.
However the Second Leg may give Porto a chance to at least redeem themselves with a much better performance as they could be facing a heavily rotated Liverpool team. Jurgen Klopp has not always done that, but Liverpool are virtually through to the Quarter Final and have a huge game at Manchester United on Saturday so risking key players would be a surprise.
There will be some talent available to Liverpool who are on the fringes of the first team, while Klopp may use some of the more consistent starters to keep momentum going.
Even then it should give Porto a chance to show they are better than they were in the First Leg when they began decent enough before falling it apart.
Porto have scored in their 3 away Group games in the Champions League and they will feel they can play a part.
They will likely be better defensively than they were in the First Leg, but Liverpool are very strong at home and have been scoring for fun in recent games at Anfield. Even a changed Liverpool team should be able to cause problems for Porto and goals were not in short supply in the First Leg of the Champions League Last 16 ties played last month.
This Second Leg could follow suit with both teams likely to try and play some attacking football so looking for four or more goals is the pick. Porto should be better going forward against a Liverpool team giving some players a chance to shine, while the home team will try and play with the same style that has produced plenty of goals this season.
If the first choice three forwards sit out the number of goals could be a problem, but Porto looked vulnerable at the back in the First Leg and having their own chances should help these teams hit four or more goals combined.
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid Pick: The First Leg between these two European giants was a fascinating game with very little between them.
In fact I think the 3-1 First Leg lead for Real Madrid flattered the European Champions and I was convinced Paris Saint-Germain would still be able to turn things around and redeem themselves for the manner of their Last 16 loss to Barcelona twelve months ago.
Was is the most important word in that sentence though.
Since the First Leg Neymar has been lost to an injury for the home team and I do wonder if that is going to be critical to the outcome of this tie. No one will suggest Paris Saint-Germain don’t still have the attacking talent to overturn this deficit if they produce the same performance they did in the Spanish capital, but the loss of Neymar has tuned down my enthusiasm for PSG to turn the Last 16 tie around.
I would expect Paris Saint-Germain to put Real Madrid under pressure in front of their own fans having won 4 straight Champions League ties at home. All of those wins came with PSG scoring three or more goals including the thumping of Barcelona 4-0 last season, so Real Madrid have to be careful.
However I do think Real Madrid can also have success when they get forward with Cristiano Ronaldo in fine form in recent weeks. They had been scoring plenty on their travels prior to the 1-0 defeat to Espanyol last week, but Real Madrid have to be wary of their 3-1 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League Group Stage.
I backed four or more goals in the First Leg and the feeling is that we are going to see something like that again. Both Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid have the attacking quality to expose defensive vulnerabilities both teams have displayed.
I still have a sneaky feeling PSG will get through, but the absence of Neymar means I will just focus on the attackers to get the best of the defenders and providing goals for the neutrals to enjoy. Extra time being needed won’t surprise me either, but I will go back to the market that was successful in the First Leg and back at least four goals to be scored in the French capital on Tuesday.
Tottenham Hotspur v Juventus Pick: There were a fair number of Tottenham Hotspur fans you would have heard on the radio or read about on social media who are convinced the 2-2 draw in Turin is going to be enough to see their team through to the Quarter Final of the Champions League.
However I think it is too easy to put a line through a Juventus team who have some key players back for the Second Leg.
In saying that, I do think Tottenham Hotspur will be able to win but this is going to be a tense night in North West London and I fully expect Juventus to play their part. The problem is that they have to either win the game or score at least two goals in a draw to have a chance to progress to the Quarter Final and I think that is a tough task at Wembley Stadium where Tottenham Hotspur have been looking more and more comfortable in each passing week of the season.
The likes of Liverpool, Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, Manchester United and Arsenal have all been beaten by Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley Stadium this season. All of those teams were outplayed by Spurs and there is enough talent in this Tottenham Hotspur team to wrap up this Last 16 tie with a win.
I have to respect the fact that Juventus will be a lot better in the Second Leg with Blaise Matuidi and Pablo Dybala back in the starting line up. The loss of Gonzalo Higuain would be a blow considering the Argentinian scored twice in the First Leg, but my bigger fear for Juventus is whether they can match the energy of their hosts with an ageing defence.
Back in Italy Juventus have remained very strong, but Barcelona hammered them in the Champions League and Tottenham Hotspur looked like they could have too much energy and quality for them. I wouldn't be surprised if there are three or more goals scored in this one with all of the Tottenham Hotspur Group games in the Champions League this season featuring that many goals and Juventus likely to have to open up at some point.
I also think Tottenham Hotspur will just have a little too much for a quality Juventus team who are perhaps not as strong defensively as they were a season ago. At some point Juventus will have to come out and I expect that will aid Tottenham Hotspur who have players to punish them and I like the English club to move through to the Quarter Final of the Champions League.
Juventus have continued to look strong defensively back in Italy, but Tottenham Hotspur carved them open a number of times in Turin and looked the better team. I can see the home team doing that again in this one and working their way to the victory and will back them to do that.
Manchester City v Basel Pick: Barring something quite outrageous occurring, Manchester City and Liverpool are two English clubs who will be in the Quarter Final draw for the Champions League a week on Friday.
Both teams should confirm their places at the end of this week's Champions League Last 16 Second Leg ties to be played and the layers are expecting Manchester City to crush Basel for a second time.
If there was the feeling that Pep Guardiola will pick his strongest eleven then that could happen, but instead it has to be expected that there will be wholesale changes to his team. That may mean Manchester City are not as clinical as they were in Switzerland where they beat Basel 0-4 and a changed team will also mean Basel can at least look to show they are better than how they performed in the home Leg.
However Basel have been in terrible form coming out of the Winter Break in Switzerland having lost 4 of their 5 games in all competitions and failing to score in any of those. The confidence has to be short going into a tough Second Leg and Basel may look to just produce a damage limitation exercise.
Changes could be made by Basel in a bid to keep players fresh for the domestic matters coming up and I think Manchester City will win this one.
Whether they win by enough goals to cover the handicap is a tougher question to answer, but the Basel lack of goals in recent games helps lead me to my pick.
Manchester City have beaten both Shakhtar Donetsk and Feyenoord at home in the Champions League without conceding and they have 4 clean sheets in 5 games in all competitions. With Basel's recent struggles in front of goal, even a changed backline for Manchester City should be able to cope with the Basel attacks and I would expect them to win this one with a clean sheet.
AC Milan v Arsenal Pick: A few years ago this would have been a big Champions League tie, but both AC Milan and Arsenal are going through some lean times.
At least AC Milan come in with some confidence having made some big investments in the summer and bringing in Gennaro Gattuso during the course of the season to oversee what had been an underachieving team. Since their former midfield enforcer has become manager, AC Milan have been in fine form though and they have been winning games behind strong defensive efforts.
You have to think that will be the game plan for Gattuso in this First Leg as he will look to make sure AC Milan don't give away too much and put Arsenal under some pressure.
After 4 losses in a row in all competitions culminating in the 2-1 defeat at Brighton on Sunday, Arsenal's confidence has to be in a really poor place though. That may encourage Milan to try and get forward and expose the vulnerabilities that Arsenal have shown in recent weeks, especially away from home where they have lost 4 of their last 5 in all competitions.
However I don't think Gattuso will overplay his hand and allow the talented Arsenal attacking players to expose spaces left behind. Keeping a clean sheet has to be the focus for the home team and I think this may be a tight game which does not feature a lot of goals.
AC Milan have kept 6 clean sheets in a row in all competitions, while they have also only conceded a single goal in their last 6 at the San Siro. Having Danny Welbeck leading the line for Arsenal should mean Milan feel comfortable in trying to contain their visitors, although I will say again that I don't think Milan will go gung-ho for the win either.
The home team have won 5 of 6 home games in the Europa League and I can understand why they have their backers with the form Arsenal are in. Confidence is a real problem for Arsenal at the moment, but I think Milan will make this a tighter fixture with limited chances and I will look for two or fewer goals to be produced in the First Leg which should mean the Second Leg is left in the balance.
Atletico Madrid v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: It would be a real surprise if Atletico Madrid are not able to make it past Russian leaders Lokomotiv Moscow in this Last 16 tie in the Europa League.
You have to respect any team from Russia who are playing with the confidence Lokomotiv Moscow are, but this is another step up in terms of quality for them to face. They should be better prepared than they were in their Last 32 tie against Nice now Lokomotiv Moscow have had 3 games under their belt since the Winter Break, but falling 2-0 behind to Atletico Madrid would be a much bigger mountain to climb than it was against Nice.
Atletico Madrid do need to bounce back from their 1-0 defeat at Barcelona on Sunday which has left them 8 points behind the Spanish League leaders. However this is a team in fine form in recent weeks having won 8 in a row prior to that defeat and Atletico Madrid have been strong at home where they have won 5 in a row in all competitions without conceding a goal.
I imagine Lokomotiv Moscow will look to frustrate their hosts and earn a result that will put them in a good place for the Second Leg next week in the Russian capital. That won't be easy with the quality Atletico Madrid have in forward areas and I think they are going to grind out a lead to take to Russia next week.
Atletico Madrid have scored 11 goals in their last 5 home games in all competitions and beat Roma and Copenhagen at home in European competitions without conceding a goal in their last couple here. The home team are a short price to win this one with a clean sheet, but I think Atletico Madrid are not only capable of doing that, but they can beat Lokomotiv Moscow by at least two goals on the day.
Lokomotiv Moscow have only lost 1 of their last 9 away Europa League games, but that was a 2-0 defeat at Fenerbahce last season in the Last 32. They were also 2-0 down at Nice and I will back Atletico Madrid to cover the Asian Handicap.
Borussia Dortmund v Salzburg Pick: This has been a tough season for Borussia Dortmund but they look to have drawn a good tie to move through to the Europa League Quarter Final.
The home Leg is going to be very important to the Bundesliga club and they have to have full respect for a Salzburg team who have scored plenty of goals in this competition.
Not many would have picked Salzburg to get past Real Sociedad, while Borussia Dortmund were more than a little fortunate to beat Atalanta in the Last 32 tie. That has left plenty of room for improvement for Dortmund, but I would still be surprised if they are not able to produce a First Leg lead.
Goals haven't been a problem for Borussia Dortmund, but they concede plenty too so backing the home team to win a game featuring three or more goals is the call.
Marseille v Athletic Bilbao Pick: Neither Marseille nor Athletic Bilbao are in great form coming into this Europa League Last 16 tie which looks hard to call on paper. Both will recognise the importance of this competition to their season, but picking a winner over the two Legs looks really tough.
Home form in both Legs will be very important and the onus is on Marseille to try and earn some kind of lead to take across to Bilbao next week. Marseille's recent form doesn't offer much enthusiasm for them, but generally Marseille have been very strong at home where they are unbeaten in 16 games in all competitions and have won 11 of those.
Marseille have also won 5 of their 6 European home ties this season so they have to feel they can turn around recent form where the majority of the poorer results have come on their travels.
Athletic Bilbao losing 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions has helped the layers decide that Marseille should be the favourites for this First Leg, but they still look short at odds on. That is mainly because Athletic Bilbao have seemingly reserved their best football for the Europa League this season and any team who have scored at least twice in 4 of their 5 away European games have to be respected.
They may be able to play their part and I think Marseille will be looking to get forward to produce a dominant position for the Second Leg.
Together that could see these teams combine for at least three goals especially as Athletic Bilbao have been scoring and conceding goals for fun for much of the season. Marseille have been a little inconsistent but they are good enough to find a winner in this one and I can see both teams score in the contest.
Backing three or more goals to be scored looks a big price here.
Leipzig v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: You have to credit Leipzig for working their way through to the Last 16 of the Europa League in their maiden season in any European competition but they haven't looked all that convincing doing it.
They finished third in a weak Champions League Group and only just beat Napoli in the Last 32 of the Europa League despite winning the First Leg 1-3 in Italy. With a big battle in Germany for the top four places developing, Leipzig are perhaps a little thin in the squad to deal with both domestic and European matters.
However they are facing a Zenit St Petersburg team who have similar issues to deal with the rest of the season.
Zenit St Petersburg are in for a battle to finish in the top three and the Champions League places in Russia, but like Leipzig they are still hoping the Europa League could produce another avenue back into the premier European competition.
Both teams should look at the other as a team they should be getting past and that could make this a very good tie. The failure of Zenit St Petersburg to score in either of their last couple of away games is a concern, but Leipzig have both scored and conceded goals for fun in European competition this season.
Much of that may be down to the inexperience for the players and the manager at this level and I can see this First Leg producing a few goals. Leipzig home games in European Football have seen plenty of goals scored and Zenit St Petersburg did score at east twice in half of their 6 away games in the Europa League this season.
At odds against backing at least three goals to be shared out looks a decent shout.
Sporting Lisbon v Viktoria Plzen Pick: Both Sporting Lisbon and Viktoria Plzen are likely to have looked at this Last 16 draw and been very happy with who they have been paired with. In an open draw with some huge names involved, both teams here should feel this is a tie that could lead them to the Quarter Final of a major European competition.
The edge has to be given to Sporting Lisbon who have a stronger European pedigree than Viktoria Plzen who have surprised many by reaching this Round of the Europa League.
Sporting Lisbon have only won 1 of their 5 home European games this season which is a surprise, but they have scored three times in their last couple here. In the Last 32 you could blame complacency for Sporting Lisbon blowing a 3-1 home lead against Astana as they were 6-2 up on aggregate at that point with ten minutes left to play.
There is also no doubt that Viktoria Plzen are not as strong away from home as they are in front of their own fans. Defeats in Steaua Bucharest and Lugano have come in the Europa League Group Stage and on both occasions Viktoria Plzen conceded three times so I do like Sporting Lisbon's chances of gaining a significant advantage heading to the Czech Republic for the Second Leg next week.
As long as Sporting Lisbon don't slip up like they did in the last Round, I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this First Leg and be in a strong position for a Quarter Final berth at the end of Thursday evening.
MY PICKS: Liverpool-Porto Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain-Real Madrid Over 3.5 Goals @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Juventus Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
AC Milan-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marseille-Athletic Bilbao Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig-Zenit St Petersburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sporting Lisbon - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.12 Bet Victor (2 Units)
This week is also an important one in the Europa League with the Last 16 First Legs due to be played on Thursday.
The focus on Tuesday will likely be on the big game in Paris where PSG take on Real Madrid, before Juventus head to Wembley Stadium to take on a Tottenham Hotspur team who have the narrow advantage from the First Leg of their Second Round tie.
Liverpool v Porto Pick: The Champions League saw Paris Saint-Germain blow a huge Second Round lead in their defeat to Barcelona twelve months ago, but I would argue that Porto overturning their 0-5 home loss to Liverpool from the First Leg would be an even bigger upset.
Let’s cut to the chase- that isn’t happening.
However the Second Leg may give Porto a chance to at least redeem themselves with a much better performance as they could be facing a heavily rotated Liverpool team. Jurgen Klopp has not always done that, but Liverpool are virtually through to the Quarter Final and have a huge game at Manchester United on Saturday so risking key players would be a surprise.
There will be some talent available to Liverpool who are on the fringes of the first team, while Klopp may use some of the more consistent starters to keep momentum going.
Even then it should give Porto a chance to show they are better than they were in the First Leg when they began decent enough before falling it apart.
Porto have scored in their 3 away Group games in the Champions League and they will feel they can play a part.
They will likely be better defensively than they were in the First Leg, but Liverpool are very strong at home and have been scoring for fun in recent games at Anfield. Even a changed Liverpool team should be able to cause problems for Porto and goals were not in short supply in the First Leg of the Champions League Last 16 ties played last month.
This Second Leg could follow suit with both teams likely to try and play some attacking football so looking for four or more goals is the pick. Porto should be better going forward against a Liverpool team giving some players a chance to shine, while the home team will try and play with the same style that has produced plenty of goals this season.
If the first choice three forwards sit out the number of goals could be a problem, but Porto looked vulnerable at the back in the First Leg and having their own chances should help these teams hit four or more goals combined.
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid Pick: The First Leg between these two European giants was a fascinating game with very little between them.
In fact I think the 3-1 First Leg lead for Real Madrid flattered the European Champions and I was convinced Paris Saint-Germain would still be able to turn things around and redeem themselves for the manner of their Last 16 loss to Barcelona twelve months ago.
Was is the most important word in that sentence though.
Since the First Leg Neymar has been lost to an injury for the home team and I do wonder if that is going to be critical to the outcome of this tie. No one will suggest Paris Saint-Germain don’t still have the attacking talent to overturn this deficit if they produce the same performance they did in the Spanish capital, but the loss of Neymar has tuned down my enthusiasm for PSG to turn the Last 16 tie around.
I would expect Paris Saint-Germain to put Real Madrid under pressure in front of their own fans having won 4 straight Champions League ties at home. All of those wins came with PSG scoring three or more goals including the thumping of Barcelona 4-0 last season, so Real Madrid have to be careful.
However I do think Real Madrid can also have success when they get forward with Cristiano Ronaldo in fine form in recent weeks. They had been scoring plenty on their travels prior to the 1-0 defeat to Espanyol last week, but Real Madrid have to be wary of their 3-1 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League Group Stage.
I backed four or more goals in the First Leg and the feeling is that we are going to see something like that again. Both Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid have the attacking quality to expose defensive vulnerabilities both teams have displayed.
I still have a sneaky feeling PSG will get through, but the absence of Neymar means I will just focus on the attackers to get the best of the defenders and providing goals for the neutrals to enjoy. Extra time being needed won’t surprise me either, but I will go back to the market that was successful in the First Leg and back at least four goals to be scored in the French capital on Tuesday.
Tottenham Hotspur v Juventus Pick: There were a fair number of Tottenham Hotspur fans you would have heard on the radio or read about on social media who are convinced the 2-2 draw in Turin is going to be enough to see their team through to the Quarter Final of the Champions League.
However I think it is too easy to put a line through a Juventus team who have some key players back for the Second Leg.
In saying that, I do think Tottenham Hotspur will be able to win but this is going to be a tense night in North West London and I fully expect Juventus to play their part. The problem is that they have to either win the game or score at least two goals in a draw to have a chance to progress to the Quarter Final and I think that is a tough task at Wembley Stadium where Tottenham Hotspur have been looking more and more comfortable in each passing week of the season.
The likes of Liverpool, Borussia Dortmund, Real Madrid, Manchester United and Arsenal have all been beaten by Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley Stadium this season. All of those teams were outplayed by Spurs and there is enough talent in this Tottenham Hotspur team to wrap up this Last 16 tie with a win.
I have to respect the fact that Juventus will be a lot better in the Second Leg with Blaise Matuidi and Pablo Dybala back in the starting line up. The loss of Gonzalo Higuain would be a blow considering the Argentinian scored twice in the First Leg, but my bigger fear for Juventus is whether they can match the energy of their hosts with an ageing defence.
Back in Italy Juventus have remained very strong, but Barcelona hammered them in the Champions League and Tottenham Hotspur looked like they could have too much energy and quality for them. I wouldn't be surprised if there are three or more goals scored in this one with all of the Tottenham Hotspur Group games in the Champions League this season featuring that many goals and Juventus likely to have to open up at some point.
I also think Tottenham Hotspur will just have a little too much for a quality Juventus team who are perhaps not as strong defensively as they were a season ago. At some point Juventus will have to come out and I expect that will aid Tottenham Hotspur who have players to punish them and I like the English club to move through to the Quarter Final of the Champions League.
Juventus have continued to look strong defensively back in Italy, but Tottenham Hotspur carved them open a number of times in Turin and looked the better team. I can see the home team doing that again in this one and working their way to the victory and will back them to do that.
Manchester City v Basel Pick: Barring something quite outrageous occurring, Manchester City and Liverpool are two English clubs who will be in the Quarter Final draw for the Champions League a week on Friday.
Both teams should confirm their places at the end of this week's Champions League Last 16 Second Leg ties to be played and the layers are expecting Manchester City to crush Basel for a second time.
If there was the feeling that Pep Guardiola will pick his strongest eleven then that could happen, but instead it has to be expected that there will be wholesale changes to his team. That may mean Manchester City are not as clinical as they were in Switzerland where they beat Basel 0-4 and a changed team will also mean Basel can at least look to show they are better than how they performed in the home Leg.
However Basel have been in terrible form coming out of the Winter Break in Switzerland having lost 4 of their 5 games in all competitions and failing to score in any of those. The confidence has to be short going into a tough Second Leg and Basel may look to just produce a damage limitation exercise.
Changes could be made by Basel in a bid to keep players fresh for the domestic matters coming up and I think Manchester City will win this one.
Whether they win by enough goals to cover the handicap is a tougher question to answer, but the Basel lack of goals in recent games helps lead me to my pick.
Manchester City have beaten both Shakhtar Donetsk and Feyenoord at home in the Champions League without conceding and they have 4 clean sheets in 5 games in all competitions. With Basel's recent struggles in front of goal, even a changed backline for Manchester City should be able to cope with the Basel attacks and I would expect them to win this one with a clean sheet.
AC Milan v Arsenal Pick: A few years ago this would have been a big Champions League tie, but both AC Milan and Arsenal are going through some lean times.
At least AC Milan come in with some confidence having made some big investments in the summer and bringing in Gennaro Gattuso during the course of the season to oversee what had been an underachieving team. Since their former midfield enforcer has become manager, AC Milan have been in fine form though and they have been winning games behind strong defensive efforts.
You have to think that will be the game plan for Gattuso in this First Leg as he will look to make sure AC Milan don't give away too much and put Arsenal under some pressure.
After 4 losses in a row in all competitions culminating in the 2-1 defeat at Brighton on Sunday, Arsenal's confidence has to be in a really poor place though. That may encourage Milan to try and get forward and expose the vulnerabilities that Arsenal have shown in recent weeks, especially away from home where they have lost 4 of their last 5 in all competitions.
However I don't think Gattuso will overplay his hand and allow the talented Arsenal attacking players to expose spaces left behind. Keeping a clean sheet has to be the focus for the home team and I think this may be a tight game which does not feature a lot of goals.
AC Milan have kept 6 clean sheets in a row in all competitions, while they have also only conceded a single goal in their last 6 at the San Siro. Having Danny Welbeck leading the line for Arsenal should mean Milan feel comfortable in trying to contain their visitors, although I will say again that I don't think Milan will go gung-ho for the win either.
The home team have won 5 of 6 home games in the Europa League and I can understand why they have their backers with the form Arsenal are in. Confidence is a real problem for Arsenal at the moment, but I think Milan will make this a tighter fixture with limited chances and I will look for two or fewer goals to be produced in the First Leg which should mean the Second Leg is left in the balance.
Atletico Madrid v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: It would be a real surprise if Atletico Madrid are not able to make it past Russian leaders Lokomotiv Moscow in this Last 16 tie in the Europa League.
You have to respect any team from Russia who are playing with the confidence Lokomotiv Moscow are, but this is another step up in terms of quality for them to face. They should be better prepared than they were in their Last 32 tie against Nice now Lokomotiv Moscow have had 3 games under their belt since the Winter Break, but falling 2-0 behind to Atletico Madrid would be a much bigger mountain to climb than it was against Nice.
Atletico Madrid do need to bounce back from their 1-0 defeat at Barcelona on Sunday which has left them 8 points behind the Spanish League leaders. However this is a team in fine form in recent weeks having won 8 in a row prior to that defeat and Atletico Madrid have been strong at home where they have won 5 in a row in all competitions without conceding a goal.
I imagine Lokomotiv Moscow will look to frustrate their hosts and earn a result that will put them in a good place for the Second Leg next week in the Russian capital. That won't be easy with the quality Atletico Madrid have in forward areas and I think they are going to grind out a lead to take to Russia next week.
Atletico Madrid have scored 11 goals in their last 5 home games in all competitions and beat Roma and Copenhagen at home in European competitions without conceding a goal in their last couple here. The home team are a short price to win this one with a clean sheet, but I think Atletico Madrid are not only capable of doing that, but they can beat Lokomotiv Moscow by at least two goals on the day.
Lokomotiv Moscow have only lost 1 of their last 9 away Europa League games, but that was a 2-0 defeat at Fenerbahce last season in the Last 32. They were also 2-0 down at Nice and I will back Atletico Madrid to cover the Asian Handicap.
Borussia Dortmund v Salzburg Pick: This has been a tough season for Borussia Dortmund but they look to have drawn a good tie to move through to the Europa League Quarter Final.
The home Leg is going to be very important to the Bundesliga club and they have to have full respect for a Salzburg team who have scored plenty of goals in this competition.
Not many would have picked Salzburg to get past Real Sociedad, while Borussia Dortmund were more than a little fortunate to beat Atalanta in the Last 32 tie. That has left plenty of room for improvement for Dortmund, but I would still be surprised if they are not able to produce a First Leg lead.
Goals haven't been a problem for Borussia Dortmund, but they concede plenty too so backing the home team to win a game featuring three or more goals is the call.
Marseille v Athletic Bilbao Pick: Neither Marseille nor Athletic Bilbao are in great form coming into this Europa League Last 16 tie which looks hard to call on paper. Both will recognise the importance of this competition to their season, but picking a winner over the two Legs looks really tough.
Home form in both Legs will be very important and the onus is on Marseille to try and earn some kind of lead to take across to Bilbao next week. Marseille's recent form doesn't offer much enthusiasm for them, but generally Marseille have been very strong at home where they are unbeaten in 16 games in all competitions and have won 11 of those.
Marseille have also won 5 of their 6 European home ties this season so they have to feel they can turn around recent form where the majority of the poorer results have come on their travels.
Athletic Bilbao losing 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions has helped the layers decide that Marseille should be the favourites for this First Leg, but they still look short at odds on. That is mainly because Athletic Bilbao have seemingly reserved their best football for the Europa League this season and any team who have scored at least twice in 4 of their 5 away European games have to be respected.
They may be able to play their part and I think Marseille will be looking to get forward to produce a dominant position for the Second Leg.
Together that could see these teams combine for at least three goals especially as Athletic Bilbao have been scoring and conceding goals for fun for much of the season. Marseille have been a little inconsistent but they are good enough to find a winner in this one and I can see both teams score in the contest.
Backing three or more goals to be scored looks a big price here.
Leipzig v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: You have to credit Leipzig for working their way through to the Last 16 of the Europa League in their maiden season in any European competition but they haven't looked all that convincing doing it.
They finished third in a weak Champions League Group and only just beat Napoli in the Last 32 of the Europa League despite winning the First Leg 1-3 in Italy. With a big battle in Germany for the top four places developing, Leipzig are perhaps a little thin in the squad to deal with both domestic and European matters.
However they are facing a Zenit St Petersburg team who have similar issues to deal with the rest of the season.
Zenit St Petersburg are in for a battle to finish in the top three and the Champions League places in Russia, but like Leipzig they are still hoping the Europa League could produce another avenue back into the premier European competition.
Both teams should look at the other as a team they should be getting past and that could make this a very good tie. The failure of Zenit St Petersburg to score in either of their last couple of away games is a concern, but Leipzig have both scored and conceded goals for fun in European competition this season.
Much of that may be down to the inexperience for the players and the manager at this level and I can see this First Leg producing a few goals. Leipzig home games in European Football have seen plenty of goals scored and Zenit St Petersburg did score at east twice in half of their 6 away games in the Europa League this season.
At odds against backing at least three goals to be shared out looks a decent shout.
Sporting Lisbon v Viktoria Plzen Pick: Both Sporting Lisbon and Viktoria Plzen are likely to have looked at this Last 16 draw and been very happy with who they have been paired with. In an open draw with some huge names involved, both teams here should feel this is a tie that could lead them to the Quarter Final of a major European competition.
The edge has to be given to Sporting Lisbon who have a stronger European pedigree than Viktoria Plzen who have surprised many by reaching this Round of the Europa League.
Sporting Lisbon have only won 1 of their 5 home European games this season which is a surprise, but they have scored three times in their last couple here. In the Last 32 you could blame complacency for Sporting Lisbon blowing a 3-1 home lead against Astana as they were 6-2 up on aggregate at that point with ten minutes left to play.
There is also no doubt that Viktoria Plzen are not as strong away from home as they are in front of their own fans. Defeats in Steaua Bucharest and Lugano have come in the Europa League Group Stage and on both occasions Viktoria Plzen conceded three times so I do like Sporting Lisbon's chances of gaining a significant advantage heading to the Czech Republic for the Second Leg next week.
As long as Sporting Lisbon don't slip up like they did in the last Round, I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this First Leg and be in a strong position for a Quarter Final berth at the end of Thursday evening.
MY PICKS: Liverpool-Porto Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain-Real Madrid Over 3.5 Goals @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Juventus Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
AC Milan-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marseille-Athletic Bilbao Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig-Zenit St Petersburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sporting Lisbon - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.12 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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