Midweek Football Picks 2018 (November 6-8)

The international break is fast approaching in November, but there is time for one more round of Champions League and Europa League Group Stage matches. Match Day 4 of both competitions is a time when some teams will begin to earn their places in the Knock Out Rounds while others are on the way out of European competition.

This is already a pressurised situation for teams who may need all the points they can earn to challenge for Knock Out spots and some of the English representatives have been left in difficult spots after the results of Match Day 3.

Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal are in comfortable positions, but Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have some work to do if they are going to progress from the Group Stage.

Out of those three teams Tottenham Hotspur look in the most precarious position, but things can quickly change with two Champions League rounds to be played in November and they can get back on track this week.


Crevena Zvezda v Liverpool Pick: We have reached the stage of the Champions League Group Stage where teams can be in a position to move through to the Last 16 of the competition while others begin to realise their European adventure is almost at a close.

That is not entirely the case for this Group which sees two points separate Liverpool at the top of the section and Paris Saint-Germain in 3rd place with Napoli in between. All three teams will feel they are good enough to have an impact in the Champions League and that makes their remaining games against Crvena Zvezda as 'must win' fixtures.

Napoli have already dropped points here, but Liverpool will head to the Serbian capital as a big favourite to beat Crvena Zvezda who have found the step up to the Champions League a gap too far to bridge. Holding Napoli will give Crvena Zvezda some confidence, but the heavy losses to Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool two weeks ago will have dented some of that and the home team will need all the passion coming from the stands to inspire them to a famous result.

In reality Crvena Zvezda were perhaps a little fortunate to even earn the goalless draw with Napoli and it will be very difficult to contain this Liverpool team. Goals have not exactly been flowing for Liverpool away from home, but they have been on a tough run and this Crvena Zvezda team are not up to the level of Chelsea, Napoli or Arsenal.

Last season Arsenal did earn a tough win here and playing in Belgrade is never easy, but Liverpool should be starting a strong team knowing the Champions League Group is still very much in the balance. With the defensive shape Liverpool have shown this season I think they can win this game and contain the Crvena Zvezda attack which will mainly be a threat from set pieces.

I expect Crvena Zvezda to cause some problems with the support they are going to have behind them, but that may not be enough to upset Liverpool. A tough away win looks to be on the cards which makes the Asian Handicap unappealing, but backing Liverpool to win to nil is a decent looking price.

Crvena Zvezda have failed to score in their last couple of home European games and in 4 of their last 8 here. Liverpool can become the latest to keep a clean sheet here as they put up three points to continue to lead this Group.


Inter Milan v Barcelona Pick: The Group has developed in such a way that Barcelona can win on Tuesday and that would not only be enough to make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League but allow them to do that as Group Winners.

The theory is that it means an 'easier' Second Round tie in the Champions League and that has to be the focus for Barcelona so they can put full focus on the Spanish Primera Division in the weeks ahead.

Lionel Messi's absence has not slowed down Barcelona's attacking threat as shown in their 2-0 win over Inter Milan two weeks ago and in their 2-3 win at Rayo Vallecano in the League this past weekend. The goals conceded are more of a concern for Barcelona fans and this is a team who have looked more vulnerable away from home.

Even in the home win over Inter there were enough chances for the Italian team to be confident of their chances of perhaps producing an upset.

Inter Milan create plenty of chances at home and they don't have a lot to lose by giving this game a real go considering both Tottenham Hotspur and PSV Eindhoven have a point each in the Group. A win for Inter Milan would put them right on the edge of making it through to the Last 16 and so there has to be a real effort at trying to pick up those points here.

Barcelona have not been the best traveller in recent Champions League years and they have not enjoyed recent visits to Italy. In the last couple of seasons Barcelona have lost Knock Out ties by the same 3-0 scoreline at Juventus and Roma.

This time Barcelona look like they have enough of an attacking threat to challenge Inter Milan and could also have Lionel Messi returning from injury. Inter Milan will feel they can also test a vulnerable Barcelona defence and I think these teams are going to combine for a decent game of football that ends with at least three goals shared out.


Napoli v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: A Group containing Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli looked like one that could see all three teams push each other all the way to Match Day 6 before determining those who will make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League.

A couple of surprising results involving Napoli have just changed the whole feel of the Group- this is a team who could not win at Crvena Zvezda on Match Day 1, but Napoli have since beaten Liverpool at home and then draw in the French Capital against PSG.

The last result means a home win for Napoli on Tuesday will put them in a very strong position to make it through to the Last 16. With a home game to come against the Serbian Champions later this month, Napoli will know two home wins are going to be good enough to see them through to the Last 16.

Napoli are a point clear of Paris Saint-Germain having been unbeaten in the Group and a 4 point lead with two games to come would be tough to blow. However they have to feel that Paris Saint-Germain are going to be much better than they were two weeks ago and this becomes a dangerous game that is hard to pick a winner from.

Home advantage is enough of an edge to make Napoli appealing as the underdog, but the Italian side are one that will give up chances to opponents who are willing to take the game to them. The French Champions will do that, but Napoli showed there are some vulnerabilities in the Paris Saint-Germain defence too and I can see another game which features goals developing.

The layers feel the same and they do think there will be at least three goals shared out at odds on. I expect that total to be hit, but I am going to back at least four goals to be shared out as there was when these teams met in Paris two weeks ago.

Napoli are a team who will look to attack with some talented players in the final third while Paris Saint-Germain games continue to produce fireworks and I will look for that to occur on Tuesday.


Porto v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: There has been a much improved performance coming from Lokomotiv Moscow which has to be respected, but they look like they have dug too big a hole to climb out of in the Champions League.

The Russian Premier League has to be the focus for Lokomotiv Moscow and despite beginning to put the wins together they have still been struggling in the Champions League. Losses to Galatasaray, Schalke and Porto have been difficult to swallow and the fact that two of those have come at home means Lokomotiv Moscow are unlikely to progress out of this Group.

Things do look much better for Porto who have won back to back Champions League games to top the Group. Another win on Tuesday will put Porto on the brink of making it through to the Last 16 and they are a team who have been strong enough at home in Europe to believe they can win this fixture.

Lokomotiv Moscow have lost back to back away games in Europe by the same 3-0 scoreline at Atletico Madrid and Galatasaray. They are in the difficult position of having to attack against a Porto team who will thrive on the counter attack and I do think it is going to be very difficult for the Russian Champions to earn a result here.

They have conceded too many goals in the Champions League and Porto can match the margin of victory secured in the Russian capital. Porto did have a narrow win over Galatasaray at home in the Group, but they should find more spaces to exploit against a Lokomotiv Moscow who have to come forward and I will back the Portuguese leaders to win this game and cover the Asian Handicap in the process.


Tottenham Hotspur v PSV Eindhoven Pick: If Champions League games were played for 85 minutes rather than 90 minutes Tottenham Hotspur would have had two wins under their belt in this Group and be in a strong position to make it through to the Last 16. However that is not the case and Tottenham Hotspur blew a 0-1 lead at Inter Milan to concede twice, while a 1-2 lead at PSV Eindhoven ended in a 2-2 draw.

So instead of being in a strong position, Tottenham Hotspur find themselves 5 points behind Inter Milan in 2nd place in this Group and now have two must win home Champions League games to be played this month. Win both and Tottenham Hotspur will have a chance to make it through to the Last 16 when visiting an already Qualified Barcelona on Match Day 6, but anything less and this will be seen as a really disappointing campaign in the Champions League.

You have to wonder about the state of the playing surface at Wembley Stadium with just eight days since it was used on back to back days. That is going to make it difficult for two teams who do like to pass the ball and play attacking football, but Tottenham Hotspur have run out of excuses having blown games already in the Champions League.

They have to put PSV Eindhoven under pressure from the off and I do think Tottenham Hotspur are capable of doing that. The Premier League club looked much better than PSV Eindhoven for long periods of the game on Match Day 3 and it was only two errors that allowed the Dutch Champions to secure a point.

PSV Eindhoven have to be respected for the way they continue to dominate domestically, but the Dutch League has slipped off the standards it once had. In the Champions League PSV Eindhoven have looked second best in all 3 Group games played and this is a team who have lost 4 of their last 5 away European ties.

I expect Tottenham Hotspur to add to that even through the injury crisis they are suffering in centre midfield. I am a little concerned with the defensive performances of late which has seen Tottenham Hotspur offer chances to opponents, while they have lost 3 of their last 4 at Wembley Stadium.

However those defeats have come against some of the best teams in Europe and I will back Tottenham Hotspur to reinvigorate their Champions League challenge by winning this game by a couple of goals on the day.


CSKA Moscow v Roma Pick: When you factor in Roma's run of 1 win from their last 17 away games in the Champions League it is hard to imagine that they would be as short a price as they are to win in Moscow on Match Day 4.

Roma did crush CSKA Moscow at home a couple of weeks ago but they have shown they are not quite so good on their travels and come into this one on a run of 5 consecutive losses on their travels in the Champions League.

The majority of those defeats have come against some of the best teams in European Football although Roma were beaten in Shakhtar Donetsk last season too. Those results are a concern but even then I do think Roma can win this game with the amount of chances they are likely going to create against this CSKA Moscow team.

On Match Day CSKA Moscow did beat Real Madrid 1-0 here, but the European Champions are out of whack at the moment and even then they were unfortunate to not only avoid a defeat but to win in the Russian capital. Since that win CSKA Moscow have lost back to back home games in the Russian Premier League while they also lost 2 of their 3 home Group games in the Champions League twelve months ago.

Roma have been a little inconsistent this season with some young, talented players being brought in to back up the team that reached the Semi Final of the Champions League last season. They have not been dominant away from home, but Roma do create enough chances to think they can win here and move into a strong position to make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League.

The first goal will be crucial, but I do think Roma can be backed despite their awful away record in the Champions League.


Valencia v Young Boys Pick: As a Manchester United fan seeing another draw between Valencia and Young Boys would be an ideal result as it could mean a place in the Last 16 could be secured before Match Day 6 is played.

Even a Young Boys win in Spain would not be a bad result for United who would then be a home win over the Swiss side from making it through.

Both Valencia and Young Boys are unconcerned by what Manchester United fans want though and these teams have to be well aware of the importance of winning this fixture to have a chance to progress from this Group. The losing team would almost certainly be missing out on a place in the Last 16 of the Champions League and that pressure can make it difficult for players to perform.

Valencia have really struggled to turn draws into wins all season which does make it hard to trust them to win any game of football. The 0-1 home loss to Girona was a really poor result for Valencia, although they created enough chances to think they are going to turn thing around and start putting the wins on the board.

They will have to respect a Young Boys team who should really have beaten Valencia in Switzerland a couple of weeks ago. However Young Boys have not been as good away from home in European Football in recent years and that may give Valencia enough of an edge to earn what will be a very important win for them on Wednesday.

The draws are a real concern for Valencia backers, but they have been creating chances and I think they can get the better of Young Boys this time. It may not be the result I would want to see but Valencia should also have chances on the counter attack if they are leading as Young Boys try and get back into the Group too.

I will look to back Valencia to win this game and will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Juventus v Manchester United Pick: It was an eye-opening experience for Manchester United fans and players alike as they were convincingly beaten by Juventus at Old Trafford two weeks ago to show how far behind the European elite Manchester United have slipped.

They get a second chance to prove the gap is not as big as it looked at Old Trafford but the test is much bigger when heading to Turin where Juventus have generally been so strong.

Prior to the win over Young Boys Juventus had failed to win any of 3 home Champions League games but those came against Barcelona, Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur with the last of those seeing Juventus blow a 2-0 lead.

With recent Manchester United starts to fixtures it is a real concern that they could find themselves in a hole they can't dig out of in this fixture. Manchester United have shown enough to fight back and draw with Chelsea, but Juventus may be a step up from The Blues and this is a team who have made scoring look very, very easy for most of the season.

That is a real concern for Manchester United whose defensive shape has not been at its best and the chances teams are creating against them is a real problem ahead of this fixture and the Manchester derby on Sunday. It makes it very difficult to see a different outcome to this fixture on Match Day 4 as what we saw at Old Trafford, although Juventus are even more clinical in front of their own fans and the suggestion is that this margin of victory is also greater than two weeks ago.

Backing Juventus to win a game featuring two or more goals may be one for non-Manchester United fans out there.


Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: There are some major leaks coming out about Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain, but I don't think there will be a serious impact on the playing side of things as they look to take complete control of their Champions League Group.

Back to back away wins have moved Manchester City to the top of the section, but it is a little strange to think they have lost their last 3 home Champions League games. I would imagine they stop that run on Wednesday when they face Shakhtar Donetsk for the second time in the Group having won 0-3 in the Ukraine two weeks ago.

Last season Manchester City were comfortable 2-0 winners over Shakhtar Donetsk and the feeling is they are going to be fairly comfortable again.

There will likely be some changes to the starting eleven with the Manchester derby in mind, but Pep Guardiola will want his team to keep the momentum going having won 4 in a row at the Etihad Stadium since their 1-2 loss to Lyon in the Champions League.

The attacking threat posed by Manchester City won't be lessened even with the changes they are likely to make. While Shakhtar Donetsk are a talented team who can be a threat going forward themselves, I think they play with a freedom that can be exposed by Manchester City as they were in the home game a couple of weeks ago.

As with any Manchester City home game against supposedly lesser teams they are going to be asked to cover a big handicap for a decent payout. Last season Shakhtar Donetsk lost 2-0 here and were 3-0 losers in Napoli and I do think Manchester City are playing with enough confidence to secure a big win here with the chances they are likely to create after once again dominating the ball against Shakhtar Donetsk.


Dynamo Kiev v Rennes Pick: There was an element of fortune for Dynamo Kiev in winning 1-2 in Rennes on Match Day 3 and they can't take anything for granted in this Europa League Group which looks to be one of the more competitive ones in the tournament.

Another victory would put Dynamo Kiev in a very strong position in the Group, but they have been inconsistent both at home and in Europe which makes it difficult to trust them.

Dynamo Kiev have only won 1 of their last 5 home games in European competition and they have failed to win their last 2 this season against Ajax and Astana. You could make a serious argument that both are superior to a Rennes team who have been struggling at the wrong end of the French top flight, but there may also be a slight lack of belief in the home dressing room which is contributing to some inconsistent results.

On the other hand Rennes may be unbeaten in their last 3 away games since their loss in Astana which has left them in 3rd place in the Group, but they have now lost 4 straight away Europa League ties.

They can create chances which makes them dangerous, but I think Dynamo Kiev will be a little too good for them with home advantage the key. Both teams can score goals, but I like Dynamo Kiev and will back them on the Asian Handicap to get the better of their visitors.


BATE Borisov v Chelsea Pick: It can be difficult to get a read on what a manager will do in the Europa League, especially those that manage in the Premier League but I think this game is pretty easy to read.

The layers seem to be on the same page as me with the Chelsea price looking fairly attractive as most of the starting players will be left at home.

A long trip to Belarus before a home game with Everton is not ideal for Maurizio Sarri, but he has rotated his squad throughout the Europa League Group Stage and it hasn't affected Chelsea at all. They have won all 3 Group games played and Chelsea have been far too good for the other teams in this section and I think they can win in Belarus when they visit on Match Day 4.

Last year BATE Borisov were being hammered by Arsenal in both games played against them in this competition. The 3-1 defeat at Stamford Bridge looks close, but Chelsea dominated and they should have enough about them in the final third to get the better of their hosts again.

BATE Borisov have lost back to back home games in European competition and conceded at least three goals in both against PSV Eindhoven and PAOK. They will have to be a lot better defensively if they are going to contain Chelsea and I think the visitors will return with a comfortable victory and cover the Asian Handicap.


Lazio v Marseille Pick: You have to question the belief of the Marseille players as they head into Match Day 4 of the Europa League having lost 3 in a row in all competitions and also finding themselves on the brink of exiting the Europa League in which they had reached the Final a few months ago.

There is pressure on Marseille to find a way to win in the Italian capital, but they have a poor away record in the Europa League in recent years and it is hard to see how they turn that around.

As poor as Marseille have been on their travels Lazio have been strong at home and they know another win could see them put the Europa League to the back burner until February. They have been very good at home with 5 wins from their last 6 at the Stadio Olimpico and Lazio have created plenty of chances and scored plenty of goals in those games.

Marseille are better than what they showed in the 1-3 home defeat to Lazio, but following that up with back to back losses to Paris Saint-Germain and Montpellier while conceding at least two goals in each game is hard to ignore. They have to attack here too with a point likely not good enough as one more for Lazio from their remaining two games would see them at least finish above Marseille and Eintracht Frankfurt are clear.

With a team likely having to come forward, Lazio can punish Marseille on the counter attack and I will back the home team to win a game featuring two or more goals.


Rapid Vienna v Villarreal Pick: With just 3 points separating the four teams in this Group, a win on Match Day 4 for either Rapid Vienna or Villarreal could be a huge boost in their bid to earn their place in the Last 32 of this competition.

The 5-0 loss in Spain has put Rapid Vienna in a difficult position, but they have two games left to play at home in the Group and winning both should be good enough to move out of the section.

It won't be easy against a Villarreal team who have drawn half of their last 8 games in all competitions, but Rapid Vienna will have chances. Villarreal have not won any of their last 4 away games and they have been conceding plenty of goals in that time which is something that Rapid Vienna will look to exploit.

I expect the home team to create chances, but Villarreal should also be able to create some opportunities. They have scored in their last 6 away games and Villarreal have been able to create plenty of chances of their own while the dominant win over Rapid Vienna will give the players confidence.

These teams met in the Europa League Group Stage three seasons ago and it was Rapid Vienna who edged out Villarreal when they played here. They did share out three goals that day and I think these teams will both score on Match Day 4.

With the importance of the three points on the line, I think the teams will take risks to win this game too and I think it is worth backing at least four goals to be shared out between these teams on Thursday.


Vidi v PAOK Pick: This has been a Group that has been dominated by Chelsea and not seen one home win outside of the two the English club have earned in the section.

Vidi were beaten at home by BATE Borisov who have lost at home to PAOK who were last seen losing to Vidi at home which means second place in the Group is wide open.

Both teams will have all to play for on Thursday and I am slightly surprised PAOK are the favourites away from home. It wasn't an undeserved loss at home two weeks ago and so the layers are expecting a lot for things to be turned around that significantly.

However PAOK are far better than what they showed in the game at home and Vidi are a hard team to read. They can certainly make this a very competitive game and I think both teams will have their chances to score which makes the price on seeing both scoring in this fixture look appealing enough.

An early goal could really open the whole game up with the three points being so important for both teams assuming Chelsea beat BATE Borisov in the other game in the Group.


Arsenal v Sporting Pick: The win in Portugal two weeks has put Arsenal on the brink of making it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League and this is clearly a competition that Unai Emery wants to be successful in.

He has won the Europa League as manager multiple times as manager of Sevilla and Emery has admitted he would prefer returning to the Champions League with a trophy rather than simply finishing in the top four of the Premier League.

Arsenal look good in the Premier League despite back to back draws against Crystal Palace and Liverpool and they will want to get back to winning ways ahead of the next international break. Two home games remain before the international break begins and Emery looks to be a manager who will play strong teams in the Europa League so I am not concerned about backing The Gunners.

Two weeks they looked significantly better than Sporting and I expect the home team to frank that form. As solid a start Sporting have made to the new season it is clear they are not the best European travellers with 4 losses from their last 6 away European ties.

Losing key players in the summer has not put Sporting in as difficult a position as was suggested it was going to be, but they are going to need to be a lot better on Match Day 4 than they were when they hosted Arsenal.

All in all it is hard to see anything other than a strong Arsenal win as Emery looks to secure a place in the Last 32. The manager should pick a team to reflect his desire to put the Europa League aside until February prior to the busy festive period in England and I will back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap.


Bayer Leverkusen v Zurich Pick: After a 3-2 win for Zurich on Match Day 3 between these teams in Switzerland I am expecting to see another high-scoring game between Bayer Leverkusen and Zurich when they meet for the second time in this Group.

The two teams look certain to be heading into the Last 32 of the Europa League together, but Bayer Leverkusen will want to get back on track in trying to win the Group.

Leverkusen games at home have been full of goals as they have shown a real attacking intent, but the Bundesliga team have not been as strong defensively as they would like. Even a Zurich team coming out of the Switzerland top flight can cause problems for Leverkusen, although I am expecting the German team to have enough going forward to hurt their visitors too.

Zurich really have nothing to lose here and that should see them take part in an entertaining game. A draw would put them in command of the Group, but Zurich will be looking to work the counter attack throughout this fixture and I do think there will be goals in this one.

Backing at least four more to be shared out by Bayer Leverkusen and Zurich after the five shared out in Switzerland is my selection.


Celtic v Leipzig Pick: Both Celtic and Leipzig are coming into Match Day 4 in decent form and I do think this is going to be a much more competitive fixture than when they met in Germany two weeks ago.

On that day Leipzig were far too good for Celtic and the Bundesliga club could have won by a much larger margin than the eventual 2-0 scoreline.

It was a bad day in the office for Brendan Rodgers and his Celtic players, but they should be able to produce a much more all around effort when playing at Celtic Park. They have not been dominant at home, but Celtic have won 5 of their last 6 European games here and they are facing a Leipzig team who are still finding their feet when it comes to travelling for European games.

Leipzig did win at Rosenborg in this Group though which will give them the belief they will need to take into this game.

Overall it looks very difficult to pick a winner, but I would have to expect there will be more chances in front of goal for both teams. They created enough two weeks ago to share out at least three goals and the situation for Celtic is clear that they likely need to win this game which means they could leave spaces for Leipzig to exploit in this one.

Celtic should be able to be a little better in all aspects of their game in this fixture and I think both teams will be able to score in this game. With the situation as it is, I will look for these teams to share out at least three goals on Thursday in what could be one of the more entertaining Europa League games to be played on Match Day 4.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Win to Nil @ 1.85 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Inter Milan-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Napoli-Paris Saint-Germain Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Porto - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roma @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Valencia - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juventus & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lazio & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rapid Vienna-Villarreal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.62 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vidi-PAOK Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen-Zurich Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Celtic-Leipzig Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November: 5-5, - 1.66 Units (20 Units Staked, - 8.30% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (October 23-25)

There is still one more international break to come between now and March, but this is a big month for teams in the Champions League and Europa League as they play a pivotal two games that begin to separate those teams chasing Knock Out spots and those who may be heading out of either competition.

Of course the third place team in the Champions League Group Stage will drop down into the Europa League, but that is not the ambition of the clubs in that competition.

All of the English clubs have work to do in the Champions League with none of the four teams involved earning more than four points from their first two Group games. Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur have double headers against the weakest team in their Group so will be expected to get their Champions League back on track after losing three of the four games they have played combined.

Manchester City will be confident of securing at least four points against Shakhtar Donetsk which will erase the disappointment of losing to Lyon on Match Day 1. Anything less and there will be a lot of work to do for a team whose own manager doesn't believe are ready to win the Champions League, although I do think Pep Guardiola is trying to deflect the pressure from his players.

Their cross town rivals Manchester United have the toughest of the double headers for the English clubs as they face Italian Champions Juventus twice. There is pressure on United having failed to beat Valencia at home on Match Day 2 and anything less than two points over the next two weeks may not be good enough for Manchester United in what has been a tough campaign so far.

The Europa League has bee much more comfortable for the English teams as both Arsenal and Chelsea have won their opening two Group games. Both clubs will be looking to secure their passage through to the Last 32 of the Europa League before the next international break which will give their managers plenty of opportunity to keep players fresh for the hectic period that comes immediately out of the November international break through to the New Year.

Rangers and Celtic are also involved in the Europa League Group Stage and both teams will feel they can get out of their difficult Groups after securing at least three points each from the first two games. Rangers look in the stronger position with four points secured and with a home game to come this week, but things can change quickly.

I have written a short piece about Manchester United which was posted before the positive performance at Stamford Bridge. You can read that here.

AEK Athens v Bayern Munich Pick: It can be hard to back a team like Bayern Munich who have been going through a relative crisis, especially when you know the layers are not going to give anything away with them.

No matter the form Bayern Munich are going to be favoured in almost every game they play and that can see some poor value being placed on them.

I am not sure that is the case in this Champions League tie though with Bayern Munich looking considerably stronger than AEK Athens who have conceded three goals in losing to both Ajax and Benfica. The 2-3 home loss to Benfica came in a game where their visitors had been reduced to ten men for the entirety of the second half and yet AEK Athens came up short.

And for all the negatives around Bayern Munich it should be remembered that they have won 5 of their last 6 on their travels in all competitions this season. Bayern Munich won 0-2 at Benfica on Match Day 1 and that result has seen them win 5 of their last 6 away games in the Champions League and the side have scored at least twice in each of those wins.

Injuries are affecting the possibility of squad rotation for Bayern Munich who are an ageing team, but they should still be far too good for AEK Athens.

This is a big handicap for Bayern Munich to cover considering the poor recent run they had been on before beating Wolfsburg at the weekend. However I also think AEK Athens are considerably weaker than the usual level of opponent they will come up against and I will back the German Champions to put themselves in a very strong position in this Champions League Group with a big win.

Manchester United v Juventus Pick: This really does feel like the biggest European night at Old Trafford since Manchester United faced Bayern Munich in the Champions League Quarter Final in April 2018. There has been a Europa League Semi Final played at Old Trafford since that Quarter Final, but the big European nights involve the big names and Manchester United versus Juventus does bring back memories of past momentous occasions.

It is almost twenty years since Manchester United beat Juventus on their way to the Treble, but the clubs look to be in different spots these days. While Manchester United are scrambling to get back amongst the elite of European Football, Juventus are one of the favourites to win the Champions League.

Signing Cristiano Ronaldo shows the ambition of Juventus and he will return to Old Trafford for only the second time as an opposition player since leaving Manchester United in 2009.

Ronaldo will form the main danger for Juventus, but there are plenty of other threats carried by the Italian Champions who are favoured to win at Old Trafford. Juventus have scored at least twice in 4 straight away Champions League games and they have managed to do the same in 5 of their last 6 away games in all competitions in the 2018/19 season.

The struggles Manchester United have had defensively is a real concern in this fixture, but Jose Mourinho will be more encouraged by the attacking threat Manchester United have posed in their last couple of games. That includes at Stamford Bridge on Saturday and I do think Manchester United will cause problems for an ageing Juventus defence.

Both teams could play their part in this one and I do think the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing goals in this game on Match Day 3 of the Champions League.

I think Manchester United are better going forward than defending and Juventus have been scoring plenty of goals. The Juventus defence is still a daunting one to break down and they have kept 3 consecutive away clean sheets, but Manchester United should always pose a threat at home and the pace in the forward line should be a concern for Juventus to deal with.

Manchester United as a home underdog is appealing, but Juventus' superb recent away record in the Champions League has to be respected and backing at least three goals to be shared out is the call.

Roma v CSKA Moscow Pick: This Champions League Group has been blown open by CSKA Moscow's 1-0 win over Real Madrid on Match Day 2 which means the Russian side top the section with 4 points over the European Champions and Roma who both have 3 points on the board.

While it is still expected that Real Madrid will do enough to get out of the Group beginning with a couple of wins over Viktoria Plzen, both Roma and CSKA Moscow now get into a big double header against one another.

The team who take the most points over the next couple of weeks are likely going to join Real Madrid in the Last 16 and there is some pressure on Roma considering CSKA Moscow got 'bonus' points with the win over Real Madrid.

The 0-2 home loss to SPAL would have hurt Roma, but they can bounce back this week with their strong home record in the Champions League over the last fifteen months not to be underestimated. Of course CSKA Moscow need to be respected considering their own strong run of away results in Europe, but they were 2-0 down at Viktoria Plzen on Match Day 1 and Roma are a much better side than the Czech team.

Roma do score plenty of goals at home usually and so I won't worry too much about the result against SPAL this past weekend. They should be able to dictate the play in this one and CSKA Moscow will have to ride their luck a little bit if they are going to get a result here.

I backed Roma on Match Day 2 in their home game with Viktoria Plzen and I will go back to the same market here. They have scored enough goals to think they can cover the Asian Handicap against a CSKA Moscow team who were beaten 4-1 at Arsenal in the Europa League a few months ago.

Club Brugge v Monaco Pick: Two clubs who have lost both Champions League games played so far this season will be meeting in this early kick off on Match Day 3 and it does feel they are already competing for third place and a spot in the Europa League.

Thierry Henry will be taking charge of his first match in the Champions League and only his second in charge of Monaco on Wednesday. He has plenty of work to do with a Monaco team who have lost confidence and look like they are very vulnerable at the back.

The first task for Henry is to make the players believe in their ability again, but Monaco might already be considering the importance of domestic matters over European commitments. It could be something that is more obvious in the weeks ahead, but for now Henry has to be looking for any kind of win to give the Monaco players a shot in the arm.

It won't be easy to achieve in Brugge against the Belgian Champions who have been competitive in their two losses in the Champions League. There is a difference in level of quality which has to be bridged, but Club Brugge should be playing with more confidence than their visitors even if their own recent results have not been as good as expected.

Club Brugge do have a poor record in the Champions League which can't be ignored, but they have a team that can get forward and cause problems. Against this Monaco defence I would expect the home team to create chances and score goals, but their own defence should be challenged by a Monaco team who have scored in their last couple of games.

The absence of Radamel Falcao hurts Monaco, but I think both teams can contribute to an attacking game of football and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the way to go.

PSV Eindhoven v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both PSV Eindhoven and Tottenham Hotspur have lost both Champions League Group Stage games played this season and there is little doubt that they will be chasing two wins from this double header.

Anything less would put both teams in a very difficult position to make the Last 16 of the Champions League and I think there will be regrets at both clubs.

They have both been beaten 2-1 by Inter Milan, but both PSV Eindhoven and Tottenham Hotspur took the lead against the Italian club. At least Tottenham Hotspur can point to the fact they have to host Inter Milan as they look to get back on track in the Champions League, but that will all be for nought if they can't beat PSV twice.

It won't be easy to win in the Netherlands as PSV Eindhoven will be playing with the confidence that comes from having won all nine Dutch League games. There is a big step up to the Champions League, but Ajax have shown it can be bridged and Tottenham Hotspur are not in dominant form at the moment.

At least there are some key players back for Tottenham Hotspur with both Hugo Lloris and Christian Eriksen set to play in this one after the 0-1 win over West Ham United at the weekend. Spurs could thank Lloris for that victory and they will need their goalkeeper to be at his best in this one as they look for a vital win on the road.

PSV Eindhoven will be a threat going forward, but I am not convinced about them defensively and Tottenham Hotspur should be good enough to expose those vulnerabilities.

The first goal should be critical in this fixture even if both teams have blown leads in the Champions League already this season. Tottenham Hotspur have scored enough away goals in the competition to deserve favouritism and I do think they can win here as they should have done in Milan on Match Day 1.

At odds against Tottenham Hotspur can be chanced to secure a vital three points in Eindhoven.

Liverpool v Crvena Zvezda Pick: There have been reports that a high Ranking official at Crvena Zvezda placed a huge bet on his team losing by exactly five goals at Paris Saint-Germain which is being investigated at the moment.

That investigation will play out, but I am not of the belief that something fishy went on in that game as Paris Saint-Germain were just a lot stronger than Crvena Zvezda.

Some will say it would look that way if their visitors were not trying, but the little I saw that day didn't suggest a team wasn't giving it their all, but simply Crvena Zvezda were being outclassed in a game they were expected to struggle in.

That could be the case again on Wednesday as they face a Liverpool team that look like they are not far away from really hammering someone. The 0-1 win at Huddersfield Town was a close one for Liverpool, but they had chances to seal that game emphatically if producing better in the final third.

With both Roberto Firmino and potentially Sadio Mane back in the starting line up Liverpool could more clinical with the chances that come their way. Last season Liverpool destroyed Spartak Moscow at home and they also recorded a comfortable win over Maribor in the Group Stage, although this Asian Handicap is a big one to cover.

It's that much bigger when you think of Liverpool's recent struggles in front of goal over the last month, but the quality of opponent has to be factored in. Take away Huddersfield Town and Liverpool have faced teams of a much higher level than Crvena Zvezda during their poor run of form and it is no surprise they haven't blown away the likes of Chelsea, Napoli and Manchester City.

Crvena Zvezda will try and frustrate Liverpool as long as possible, but I am not sure they will be able to contain their hosts. If they concede inside the first 20 minutes it could be a very long day for the Serbian Champions and I will back Liverpool to win this one big.

Paris Saint-Germain v Napoli Pick: With Liverpool expected to move onto 9 points after their double header with Crvena Zvezda over the next couple of weeks, the pressure is on Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli.

They go into their double header with 3 points and 4 points respectively and these two matches could be key in determining who is able to move through to the Champions League Second Round. If one of these teams are able to win both games on Match Day 3 and 4 I would expect them to move through to the Last 16 and leave the losing team needing a lot of help.

One win each would likely keep them in touch with Liverpool but I don't think either manager is going to settle for that in what should be two very good games to watch.

Home advantage is going to be very important in both Group games and it is Paris Saint-Germain who have that edge on Match Day 3. This is a team who have scored at least three goals in 6 of their last 8 home Champions League games and Paris Saint-Germain have had some big wins over elite teams like Barcelona and Carlo Ancelotti's Bayern Munich.

That match fourteen months ago turned out to be the last one Ancelotti managed Bayern Munich so he will be looking for revenge. However his Napoli team have regularly found themselves coming up short in away games in Europe and I expect that to be the case on Wednesday when the visit the French capital.

It is rare to see Napoli beaten easily though and all 3 away Group defeats last season came by the same 2-1 scoreline. Earlier this season Napoli were beaten 3-1 at Juventus though and this Paris Saint-Germain team can be frightening going forward when they are at their best.

In 2018/19 they have tended to be at their best at home and I think Paris Saint-Germain win this one while covering the Asian Handicap.


Leipzig v Celtic Pick: The last couple of years have seen Celtic negotiate the tough Champions League Qualifying Rounds to make it through to the Group Stage of that competition, but this year they are going to find it difficult to reach the Knock Out Rounds in the Europa League.

As soon as the draw was made it was clear Celtic were in for a real challenge to get out of a section containing Salzburg and Leipzig who both impressed in the Europa League Knock Out Rounds last season.

Celtic play with commitment and the tactics used by Brendan Rodgers means they will want to get on the front foot and cause problems for their hosts in this Group game. They have shown they can score goals even at the very best teams having done that in Paris against PSG last season and also leading at Salzburg in this Group.

However it is going to be very difficult to contain a team like Leipzig who have scored at least two goals in each of their last 4 home games and have unsurprisingly won 3 of those. Leipzig had also won 5 straight home games in Europe before losing 2-3 to Salzburg on Match Day 1 and this is a team with a lot more experience of playing in European competition compared with twelve months ago.

If you take away the Qualifying Rounds, Celtic have conceded three times in 4 of their last 5 European away games under Rodgers and that makes it tough to win games. I think Leipzig are going to prove to have too much firepower for the Scottish Champions in this fixture at home and I am going to back the Bundesliga club to cover the Asian Handicap.


Sporting v Arsenal Pick: The hard work may already have been done by Arsenal as they bid to make it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League, but Unai Emery will want to wrap up a spot as soon as possible. That could be important with a very busy fixture list in the Premier League to come and so getting additional rest for key players is what Arsenal will be looking for.

Winning games against Vorskla and Qarabag are decent enough results for Arsenal but a trip to Sporting was looking like the toughest test in the Group as soon as the draw was made.

The form shown by Arsenal has been impressive and has to be the main reason they are such a short price to win in the Portuguese capital. However this is a fixture coming at a difficult time for The Gunners and it would not be a big surprise if a number of key players are rested for the Premier League game against Crystal Palace which is played on Sunday.

That will make Sporting an appealing price, but I also think the home team are being underestimated in this one. They have won 14 of their last 16 home games in all competitions and Sporting have also won 5 of their last 7 home Europa League games including beating Atletico Madrid here in the Quarter Final last season.

Arsenal have been scoring plenty of goals which makes them dangerous, but I think this is a very tough game for them if they are resting some of their key players. A draw would likely be a result that Unai Emery would accept right now knowing a home win against Sporting in two weeks time will see them control the Group, but I also think Sporting can cause plenty of problems for their visitors too.

Backing the home team to avoid a defeat looks tempting enough here.


Zenit St Petersburg v Bordeaux Pick: In all of the European Groups being played this week it is clear that home form is going to be very important and determine which teams are going to make it through to the Knock Out Rounds and which could miss out.

Over recent years Zenit St Petersburg have really taken that to heart and they have been very good in front of their own fans.

On Thursday Zenit St Petersburg could move into a very strong position in this Group if they can see off Bordeaux, but you do have to consider how much stock the club are putting into the Europa League. After eleven games in the Russian Premier League Zenit St Petersburg are leading the table by 6 points and winning the title is clearly the biggest ambition they will have this season.

Zenit St Petersburg can put the Europa League to the back of their mind if they can take 4 points from Bordeaux over the next couple of weeks though and I think the players will know that.

They are facing a team who have lost both games in this Group, albeit narrowly, and who have not travelled well in Europe outside of the early Qualifying Rounds. Bordeaux have been inconsistent domestically and have lost 3 of their last 5 away games in all competitions including a 2-0 defeat at Montpellier last weekend.

This is a long journey for a team from Western Europe to be making and I think it will be a forlorn one for Bordeaux. The home price is not exactly going to get the pulse racing, but Zenit St Petersburg should be too strong for Bordeaux and can pick up the three points here.


Zurich v Leverkusen Pick: Both Zurich and Bayer Leverkusen have won their opening two Europa League Group games which has put them in a very strong position in this section before of a double header against one another.

They have done it in contrasting fashion with Zurich winning both games 1-0, while Leverkusen have scored at least three times in their wins.

I can see this one developing into an attacking game with neither team having much to lose. Zurich will look to be defensively resolute but they are facing a higher quality opponent who are going to get forward and try and score goals. That may mean Zurich have some opportunities on the counter attack in this one, but it will be difficult to contain Leverkusen too and so goals looks to be the order of the day.

This past weekend Zurich drew 3-3 at home with Young Boys so Bayer Leverkusen will believe they can score goals here and I do think they share out at least three on the night.


Besiktas v Genk Pick: With a Group containing all four teams locked on three points the double headers on Match Day 3 and Match Day 4 are going to be huge to begin separating the four teams.

That is certainly what Besiktas and Genk will feel with both teams looking to secure four points from the two games against each other to put themselves in a strong position in the section.

Home advantage should be a key factor in both of the games coming up over the next two weeks and this week it is Besiktas who have that edge.

I think that will be all important with Besiktas winning 8 of their last 11 home European games and I do think they will do enough to edge out a tough Genk outfit. Genk have to be respected having just a strong run of 20 wins from their last 23 games in all competitions, but they were beaten in Norway last time out against an out of form Sarpsborg team and this is a big step up against a club who reached the Last 16 of the Champions League a few months ago.

Backing the home team on the Asian Handicap looks the best play with half the stake returned in the event of a draw and that is down to the respect that is offered to Genk. 


Chelsea v BATE Borisov Pick: The Europa League has not always been a competition Maurizio Sarri has taken really seriously, but he has seen his Napoli team have some success in it. There is an increased expectation on him at Chelsea as he looks to restore the club to the Champions League and early team selections in this Group suggests the Italian is keen to keep a second avenue into the Champions League alive.

Back to back wins to open the Group Stage has put Chelsea in a very strong position to make it through to the Last 32. Maurizio Sarri will be keen to wrap up that place over the next two weeks which means he can really pick weakened teams for the final two games in the Group and keep key players rested for the busy festive period to come in the Premier League.

Chelsea have not been dominant winners in either game they have played as far as the scoreboard has been concerned, but they have missed a host of chances.

On Thursday it is a chance for players to stake their claim in Sarri's plans for the months ahead as he will look to rotate his squad. Those players have yet to really impress as the manager would have liked, but Chelsea could prove to be far too strong for BATE Borisov if they can take the chances they are creating.

BATE Borisov remain the best team coming out of Belarus but they have struggled to compete with the stronger teams they tend to face in the Champions League or Europa League. The 1-4 home loss to PAOK on Match Day 2 has underlined that point and over the last twelve months BATE Borisov have lost heavily at FC Koln, Arsenal and PSV Eindhoven in European away games.

This is a big handicap for Chelsea to cover when you think of the chances they have missed in their previous two Europa League games which have both ended 1-0 to The Blues. However BATE Borisov have conceded at least three goals in each of the four games mentioned above and lost all of those games by at least three goal margins.

Chelsea can become the latest to record a big win over BATE Borisov and I think they will be able to do that on Thursday at Stamford Bridge. Eden Hazard won't be available by all accounts, but that should not matter for Chelsea this weekend and I think they cover the big Asian Handicap.


Eintracht Frankfurt v Apollon Pick: When the draw was this Europa League Group was made you would have thought Marseille and Lazio, two teams who reached at least the Quarter Final of the competition last season, would have been leading the way through to the Last 32.

Instead it is Eintracht Frankfurt who have won both games against those much fancied sides and now have a double header against the outsiders in the Group, Apollon.

The Cypriot side need to be respected having come from 0-2 down to earn a draw with Marseille on Match Day 2, but that was played at home and it is a real challenge for them when they visit Frankfurt.

Eintracht Frankfurt are just outside the elite teams in the Bundesliga, but they have scored plenty of goals in recent weeks and that makes them dangerous. The last three home games have all ended in wins and Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 15 goals in those games with at least four scored in each one including in the 4-1 win over Lazio on Match Day 2.

There should be too much firepower for the home team again in this Europa League game and they will want to keep the momentum behind them having won 4 in a row in all competitions.

Apollon have lost 6 of their last 7 away Europa League games, although only two of those have come by two or more goals. However they needed an injury time goal to prevent that happening at Lazio on Match Day 1 and I think they struggle to contain their hosts here so backing Eintracht Frankfurt for a big win has to be the call.


Rangers v Spartak Moscow Pick: When the draw was made for the Europa League Group Stage it did look like a section in which Rangers would find it very difficult to move on to the Knock Out Rounds.

Steven Gerrard had already surpassed some expectations by taking Rangers through four Qualifying Rounds to make the Group, but the start made to the section will have the fans believing their European adventure is far from over.

Rangers have earned an important point in Spain against Villarreal and then came from behind to deservedly beat Rapid Vienna at Ibrox on Match Day 2. That means they come into this double header with Spartak Moscow on top of the Group and I do think they can continue the positive momentum with another win at home.

In recent games Rangers have been dominant at Ibrox Stadium with their last 5 wins coming during a period in which they have scored at least three goals in each victory. That is the kind of pressure that could crack Spartak Moscow, although the Russian club have a lot more experience in European Football in recent years compared with their hosts.

Spartak Moscow have underachieved in this Group so far and their continued struggles away from home in European competition cannot be ignored. Losing games at PAOK and Rapid Vienna should be a big disappointment for Spartak Moscow and they have won just 1 of their last 13 away European games.

One Russian club has already lost in this part of Glasgow and I think Rangers can win this fixture as long as they not distracted by the upcoming League Cup Semi Final to be played on Sunday. I don't think Steven Gerrard will be allowing that to happen and I do think Rangers current home form makes it hard to make a case against them continuing their positive run.

Of course their hosts are more experienced, but Spartak Moscow have conceded plenty of away goals in recent games and especially in European competition. Backing Rangers on the Asian Handicap will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw and I will back the home team in that market.

MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Manchester United-Juventus Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Roma - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Club Brugge-Monaco Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Liverpool - 3 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Paris Saint-Germain - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sporting + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Zurich-Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Besiktas - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rangers - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

October Update: 18-19-1, - 0.28 Units (74 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (October 2-4)

The second round of Group games in both the Champions League and Europa League are being played this midweek before one more round of top flight Football across Europe comes this weekend.

That will wrap up this section of the season as we then enter a two week international break and for Manchester United fans it will be a testing time if the side can't put together a couple of wins at Old Trafford over the next few days.

It has been a turbulent time at Carrington and I will have my next 'United Corner' piece ready to go during the international break and prior to the Premier League visit to Stamford Bridge.


It is an important week coming up for United as well as the other English clubs in European action with all of the Champions League games looking very important. Both Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur were beaten on Match Day 1 and need to bounce back immediately, while Liverpool can take a giant step towards the Second Round if they can win in Naples.

Qualifying from the Group as soon as possible could be a big advantage for Liverpool when we get closer to the extremely busy December period especially if Manchester City are being forced to fight for their place in the Last 16. Those two clubs also meet in a big Premier League game this Sunday which will determine which of those clubs go into the second international break of the season in top spot.

The Europa League Group Stages should be very manageable for Arsenal and Chelsea who can make it two wins from two on Thursday and continue to concentrate on what has been strong starts to the Premier League campaign.


September started off poorly for the Football Picks but the second half of the month was much better meaning back to back months with a positive return. Starting off October in a strong fashion will keep the momentum rolling and you can read my Midweek Football Picks below.


Hoffenheim v Manchester City Pick: The surprising results in this Group on Match Day 1 means Hoffenheim actually come into this fixture above Manchester City whose 1-2 home loss to Lyon means they are the only team chasing their first points in this section.

There won't be a rush of people backing Manchester City to miss out on the Second Round of the Champions League after the defeat to Lyon, but they have just tightened the margin for error in the Group. They certainly can't afford a second defeat in a row in the Champions League and extend a shocking run which has seen Manchester City lose 4 straight games in this competition and become the first English side to suffer through that.

Last season Manchester City showed they can perform away from home in the Champions League with 3 wins from 4 games played outside of England. They scored four goals in each of those wins in Feyenoord, Napoli and Basel and Manchester City are coming in off 3 straight wins since the defeat to Lyon.

The knock Sergio Aguero is playing through is a slight concern, but Manchester City will have noted how tough Hoffenheim have been having it this season since Julian Nagelsmann decided he will be moving on to Leipzig to take over as manager next season.

Hoffenheim did have a 9 game unbeaten run at home come to an end with a 1-2 loss to Leipzig this weekend and they have been conceding plenty of goals. They will believe they can challenge Manchester City with the attacking intent they have displayed, but Hoffenheim's surprising 2-2 draw at Shakhtar Donetsk has not changed my mind on where I see this team in the Group.

That was a very positive result, but Manchester City are a step above Shakhtar Donetsk and I do think they will win here. Hoffenheim may play their part by causing plenty of problems for their visitors when they build up some attacking momentum, but ultimately I think the English Champions will have too much quality all around for Hoffenheim.

I think that will lead to a relatively comfortable win on the scoreboard and I will back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap.


Juventus v Young Boys Pick: There have been some serious allegations made about Cristiano Ronaldo with the Las Vegas Police Department reinvestigating matters which have been making some headlines this week. Ronaldo won't be able to play in this fixture after being sent off on Match Day 1, but he is yet to fully invest himself in the allegations made.

Juventus will try and put any of those issues aside and concentrate on their football as they look to back up an important win over Valencia. Another on Tuesday will see the Old Lady in a very strong position to Qualify from this Group which looked quite tough on paper.

It would be a big surprise if Juventus are not good enough to beat Young Boys without Ronaldo and I am looking to back the Italian Champions to win with a comfortable margin too.

You can't ignore the fact that Juventus have never really hammered teams in the Champions League, even at home, as they make sure they do what they need to. That has seen relatively narrow wins over Dinamo Zagreb and Olympiacos here in the Champions League in recent years in the Group Stage which makes it a big tougher to trust Juventus to cover this Asian Handicap.

However Young Boys showed against Manchester United that there is a real gap to bridge to the very best teams in Europe and they have particularly struggled to impose themselves away from home. They look like being the dominant team in Switzerland again this season, but I would be surprised if Young Boys are very competitive in this one and I will back Juventus to win by at least two goals on the day.


Bayern Munich v Ajax Pick: Both of these clubs have a long and positive history in the European Cup with at least four trophies won by Bayern Munich and Ajax, although the latter are some way off those standards these days.

They might be catching Bayern Munich at the right time with the German Champions failing to win any of their last 2 games and they were beaten at Hertha Berlin over the weekend.

However there is enough quality in the Bayern Munich team to think they can bounce back and they are facing an Ajax team who simply aren't up to the level of the real elite of European Football. Ajax were also recently beaten 3-0 at PSV Eindhoven and I do worry about them when they face the very best teams.

Bayern Munich did not win their last 2 home Champions League games, but they had won their first 4 in the competition last season and all by at least two goal margins. The German Champions have been particularly dominant when it comes to home games in the Champions League Group Stage and they have tended to hammer those teams lower down the European food chain with big wins over those clubs.

Take away Manchester City and Atletico Madrid and you can see Bayern Munich have won 13 of their last 15 home Group games by at least two goal margins. It will be tough for this Ajax team to contain them I feel and I will back Bayern Munich to move into a commanding position in the Group with a solid win.


Lyon v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: One of the biggest surprises through the first round of matches in the Champions League Group Stage had to be the Lyon 1-2 win at Manchester City which has put the French side in a strong position in the Group already.

Manchester City are considered the team to beat in the Group so those points earned means Lyon will feel they have their own destiny in their hands going into the next four Champions League games.

Lyon have a very good recent home record in European competition with 7 wins in their last 10 home games. It will give them confidence against a Shakhtar Donetsk team who have lost 7 of their last 8 away Champions League games and who had to settle for a disappointing 2-2 home draw with Hoffenheim on Match Day 1.

I do think Shakhtar Donetsk are a dangerous team who have to be respected, but Lyon have been in decent form over the last month and could have beaten Nantes this past weekend if not missing a late penalty. They have been scoring goals and I think Lyon back up their win over Manchester City be securing another vital three points here which will mean they are strong favourites to make it through to the Last 16.

The strong home record in recent European games adds to my belief in the French team and I will back them to win here.


Roma v Viktoria Plzen Pick: It was something of a 'no show' from Roma in their trip to Real Madrid on Match Day 1 as they were completely outplayed, but this is the Group Stage and most will expect the Italian club to bounce back.

That 3-0 loss to Real Madrid has been a part of what can only be described as a pretty poor start to the new season for a club that reached the Champions League Semi Final a few months ago. However there have been signs Roma are about to bounce back having recorded 2 big wins at home over the last seven days in the Italian top flight.

They will be expected to make it three in a row when they face Viktoria Plzen and Roma certainly have the goals in the squad to do that. Roma have now scored at least twice in all 4 home games played in the 2018/19 season, while they have extended their run to scoring at least twice in 8 of their last 9 here.

It doesn't bode well for Viktoria Plzen who have lost 4-0 at Slavia Prague and 3-0 at Jablonec in their last couple of away games. They have looked the weakest team in the Group and blowing a 2-0 lead at home against CSKA Moscow on Match Day 1 puts Viktoria Plzen in a difficult position.

This is another step up for Viktoria Plzen and I am not sure they are going to be able to make it against a Roma team who have won their last 5 Champions League games at home. Roma did struggle to put away Qarabag last season, but they did beat Chelsea, Barcelona and Liverpool by two or more goal margins.

I will back Roma to bounce back from their defeat to Real Madrid and win a third straight home game in all competitions by two or more goals.


Paris Saint-Germain v Crvena Zvezda Pick: I don't think I was the only one who was disappointed with the level of performance Paris Saint-Germain produced in their 3-2 loss to Liverpool on Match Day 1 of the Champions League Group Stage. They looked like a team that are not going to be able to challenge the elite of European Football, but you can't dismiss them out of hand with the talent Paris Saint-Germain put onto the field in every match they play.

They have certainly shown they can dominate those teams lower down the food chain and heavy wins over the likes of Celtic and Anderlecht twelve months ago underlines that point.

I would expect Paris Saint-Germain, who have scored at least three goals in every home game they have played so far in the 2018/19 season, to be far too good for Crvena Zvezda in this early kick off on Wednesday afternoon.

The visitors are best known as Red Star Belgrade and are a former European Cup winner, but that was a long time ago and Crvena Zvezda have slipped from those standards of years gone by. Getting into the Champions League Group Stage is a huge achievement for them already and the draw with Napoli shows they can be hard to break down, although that match could have gone considerably differently if Napoli had taken the early chances they had fashioned.

Paris Saint-Germain are usually very clinical at home and so I am not anticipating them missing the same kind of opportunities as Napoli did. An early goal could see this fixture head in a similar manner as to Paris Saint-Germain's home wins over Anderlecht and Celtic in the Group Stage last season and I will back the French Champions to cover a big Asian Handicap and get this Group back on track.


Atletico Madrid v Club Brugge Pick: They may have won the Europa League last season but don't for one second believe Atletico Madrid were not embarrassed with their Group Stage exit in the Champions League. This is a team who have been very close to winning the competition over the last few years so the premature exit was a real surprise to everyone associated with the club.

They won't make the same mistakes this time around and showed that by coming from behind to beat Monaco 1-2 on Match Day 1.

However there is still something for Atletico Madrid to prove having failed to beat Qarabag in either Champions League Group game last season and so they won't be overlooking Club Brugge.

Atletico Madrid have been very good at home in Europe in general and they continue to be a tough team to break down. I think Diego Simeone will be looking to make sure they remain defensively sound in the belief that they will break down a Club Brugge team who have been a poor traveller at this level.

Scoring goals against better opposition has been a challenge for Club Brugge too and it is telling that 5 of their last 6 away defeats have come in matches they have not been able to score. Club Brugge have only scored in 1 of their last 4 away Champions League games too and I think Atletico Madrid remain the masters of the 'Win to Nil' at home and will back them to do that in this fixture.


Borussia Dortmund v Monaco Pick: Things have changed considerably for Monaco since they beat Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League Quarter Final in April 2017 in a tie that will be remembered for the blasts near the Dortmund coach which injured a couple of the players.

The Monaco team who played that Quarter Final have been broken up with key players now residing in Manchester and Paris and the poor form to open the season has to be a concern. They have already been beaten at home by Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, but the domestic form has been even more worrying as Monaco have slipped into the bottom three in France.

It is not ideal preparation for a visit to Borussia Dortmund who have been in good form to open the season.

At home they have been particularly strong with 3 straight wins and scoring at least three goals in each of those games. It is the kind of form that makes Borussia Dortmund very dangerous and I think they could overwhelm Monaco in this one and I do like the home team to win the fixture.

Covering the Asian Handicap won't be easy for Borussia Dortmund who have won 1 of their last 6 home European ties, but they are scoring plenty of goals and may be facing Monaco at the right time.


Porto v Galatasaray Pick: Group D in the Champions League looks the weakest one by some distance and I would imagine whichever two teams go through to the Last 16 won't be lasting much longer than that.

In saying that, Porto and Galatasaray won't be worrying what anyone thinks of the standard of the Group and are simply going to be fighting tooth and nail for a vital three points.

You have to give the edge to Porto in front of what is usually a loud home support and they are facing a Galatasaray team that hasn't played a lot of European Football over the last couple of years. Like many Turkish clubs, Galatasaray are also not the best travellers in Europe and they have lost their last 4 away European ties ahead of this one.

Their 3-0 home over Lokomotiv Moscow was a huge result for Galatasaray, but the challenge here is much bigger. Porto have only won 2 of their last 5 home Champions League games but both of those have come by margins of two or more goals and I think they will be able to do the same here.

I will back Porto to cover the Asian Handicap on Match Day 2.


Napoli v Liverpool Pick: This Group looked a tough one on paper when it was drawn in August, but Liverpool can take a big step towards the Last 16 of the Champions League if they can win in Naples.

Last season Liverpool showed they can be very dangerous away from home in this competition with their ability to score plenty of goals and that has to be a concern for Napoli. The last time an English side came to Naples Manchester City hit four goals in a victory in the Champions League Group Stage twelve months ago, but Liverpool can also be vulnerable defensively.

That was underlined in their 4-2 loss at Roma in the Champions League Semi Final Second Leg and Napoli have to be confident having won all 3 home games under new manager Carlo Ancelotti. Goals haven't been a problem for Napoli and this has the makings of an entertaining game with both clubs better going forward than looking to sit back and defend in numbers.

Napoli's failure to beat Crvena Zvezda on Match Day 1 has put the pressure on them to win all 3 home games in the Group if they want to try and work their way into the Last 16. That won't be lost on the manager and I think the attacking play will lead to some chances for Liverpool too and I think they can combine for a few goals in this one.

There is a feeling the Liverpool strikers are slightly out of form, but they continue to create a host of chances and both teams may in a position to help produce at least four goals on the night.


Bayer Leverkusen v AEK Larnaca Pick: In recent years Bayer Leverkusen have become a familiar name in the Champions League, but they missed out this season and have had to settle for a place in the Europa League.

This is a competition in which they could thrive if Bayer Leverkusen give it the due care and attention they should and the 2-3 win at Ludogorets on Match Day 1 suggests that may be the case.

They have not made the best start to the Bundesliga, but Bayer Leverkusen have faced both Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich already. I expect an improvement from Bayer Leverkusen going forward and they can pick up a morale boosting win on Thursday.

AEK Larnaca are unlikely to roll over for Leverkusen, but this is a team who have already been beaten by Zurich in the Group and have done well to get to this Stage of the Europa League.

They have won 2 of their last 8 away games in this competition, but those have come in the Qualifying Rounds and this should prove to be a big step up for AEK Larnaca. I expect that to show up on the scoreboard too and I will back the home team to win on the Asian Handicap.


Salzburg v Celtic Pick: Brendan Rodgers is perhaps considering his future as Celtic manager with the financial constraints on him and the players perhaps losing a little belief in his methods showing up in the results the club have been earning. Everything seems to be hard work for Celtic at the moment and confidence looks to be at a low point with the club sitting in 5th place in the Scottish Premiership.

They might be able to express themselves with some freedom in Austria as the underdog, but Celtic have lost 4 of their last 7 away European ties and the lack of goals overall is a real concern.

The point is underlined when you think of how strong Salzburg have been all season and they have gotten over the real disappointment of missing out on the Champions League Group Stage. The away goals defeat was a real upset for Salzburg considering they reached the Europa League Quarter Final last season, but this is a team that could have another big impact at this level.

Home form is critical for Salzburg and I do think they can back up the impressive 2-3 win in Leipzig from Match Day 1. The side have won 13 of their last 14 home games and scored at least twice in all but one of those games so they clearly have the firepower to do away with Celtic here.

Celtic did earn a 2-2 draw in Salzburg in the 2014/15 Europa League Group Stage, but they don't look to have enough goals to do the same this time around. I will look for the more confident Salzburg team to wear down Celtic and eventually cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Qarabag v Arsenal Pick: The Europa League may not be a top priority for English clubs over the years but Manchester United proved it is a competition that can be won and a strong way back into the Champions League.

By hook or by crook getting back into the Champions League is all important for Arsenal this season and Unai Emery has admitted he would prefer to do that by winning the Europa League than finishing in the top four. His team selection on Match Day 1 and the squad travelling to Azerbaijan has underlined the importance the manager attaches to the Europa League and he is a serial winner of the competition from his time as manager of Sevilla.

A strong Arsenal team should be good to win in Qarabag even if the home team should be respected for drawing with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage last season. In that same section they were beaten by Roma and Chelsea with the English club running away with a dominant 0-4 win here.

Qarabag will have learnt some lessons from that defeat, but they look like a team who will struggle to deal with the speed of play Arsenal put together in the final third. Even so, Qarabag could potentially cause one or two problems of their own considering how Arsenal have yet to really fix their defensive issues despite the 7 game winning run they are enjoying.

The Gunners should have too much firepower though and can make up for their defensive shortcomings in this one. I respect Qarabag as they have rarely been blown away at home in European competition, but I do think Arsenal may have too much for them and can win by a couple of goals on the day.


Bordeaux v Kobenhavn Pick: Both Bordeaux and Kobenhavn failed to win their opening Group game in the Europa League this season which means there should be a little more pressure on the players to respond on Match Day 2.

There isn't as much between these teams as there would be between Kobenhavn and one of the stronger clubs in the French top flight, but I do still think Bordeaux should have the slight edge.

Home advantage only increases that edge and Bordeaux have been playing well here so far this season with 4 wins from their last 5 in all competitions. They might be facing Kobenhavn at the right time as the Danish club have slipped to defeat in 2 of their last 3 away games and the step up to the Europa League level is still a significant one for them.

I have to respect the fact that Kobenhavn knocked out Atalanta in the Play Off Round of the Europa League to enter the Group Stage. They battled to a goalless draw in Italy so can dig in to upset Bordeaux here, but the hosts have been scoring enough goals to think they can pick up the three points.

It may be close at times and both teams will need a bit of fortune, but I will look for Bordeaux to have home advantage tell in this one.


Zenit St Petersburg v Slavia Prague Pick: In usual weeks you could see Zenit St Petersburg and Slavia Prague being given one more day to recover from Europa League action and have their next League fixture moved to a Monday. That won't be the case this week with the international break upcoming and that raises a few more doubts as to the team selection of the managers.

There are more question marks about Zenit St Petersburg who face Krasnodar this weekend, the team currently closest to them in the Russian top flight standings. That is a big game for a club looking to return to the top of Russian Football, but Zenit St Petersburg could only force a draw on Match Day 1 of the Europa League so know the importance of winning this one too.

Zenit St Petersburg have been very good in the Europa League with 7 wins from their last 8 home games in this competition. That is plenty of reason to believe they will pick a team capable of beating a Slavia Prague team who have not travelled that well in European Football although one that did earn a surprising away draw at Villarreal last season in the Group.

I don't think Slavia Prague roll over for Zenit St Petersburg, but this is a tough place to play. They have three points on the board in the Group so there may be less pressure on Slavia Prague, but ultimately I think being at home gives Zenit St Petersburg enough of an edge to win this one.

Team news may be worth keeping an eye on, but I will back Zenit St Petersburg to win this game.


Eintracht Frankfurt v Lazio Pick: Both of these teams have made a positive start to the Europa League Group which also contains a tough Marseille team.

With wins on Match Day 1, the winner of this game between Eintracht Frankfurt and Lazio will put themselves in a commanding position to reach the Last 32 with a victory on Match Day 2.

Goals have been flowing in matches involving these teams in the last couple of weeks and that could be the case when they play one another. The win they have already earned in the Group could see the teams playing with some freedom in this one with the next three points putting them in such a strong position in the Group.

4 of the 6 away Europa League games Lazio played last season ended with three or more goals shared out and they have been scoring and conceding plenty in recent games. 5 of the last 6 Eintracht Frankfurt games have also featured at least three goals shared out and I will look for these teams to combine for that number in this one too.


Rangers v Rapid Vienna Pick: Progressing in the Europa League through to the Knock Out Rounds could be a big achievement for Rangers and a progressive development for the club in general. Steven Gerrard has made it clear he wants to do well in every competition Rangers play and the 2-2 draw in Villarreal should give them plenty of confidence going forward.

Backing it up with a home win over Rapid Vienna is the key for Rangers if they have serious ambitions of making it through and they have played well enough at Ibrox to do that.

Rangers have won 4 of their 5 home Europa League games played in the last eighteen months and the draw in Villarreal was another positive result for them. Now they face a Rapid Vienna team who have been struggling away from home in recent games and who have a poor away European record with 6 losses from their last 9 away Europa League games.

I am a little concerned that Gerrard is perhaps going to be focusing on the big League games against Hearts to come this weekend, but Rangers have been strong at home throughout 2018/19. The manager will want this to be a difficult ground for any club to visit so will be looking to keep the momentum behind his players and I do think Rangers will edge out Rapid Vienna in this one.

The Austrian side have a lot more European experience than Rangers, but they simply haven't travelled well and I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw.


Sarpsborg v Genk Pick: Sarpsborg have surprised many domestically and also would have raised some eyebrows throughout the Europa League competition by making their way through four Qualifying Rounds in their maiden European campaign. It might have taken a toll on the players though and 7 straight losses in all competitions underlines that point.

However I expect the adrenaline to be pumping from the players to the fans as they play their first home Group Stage game in the Europa League. That should give the players a boost, but it may not be enough to beat an in-form Genk team who are looking to make it two wins out of two in the Group.

Genk are still chasing Club Brugge domestically, but they have been in very good form overall and 18 wins in their last 21 games is an impressive return. It has been just as good away from home where they have won 7 of their last 8 games in all competitions and have been scoring goals for fun having racked up 26 in that 8 game unbeaten run.

They are a team experienced in Europe and who have won 5 of their last 7 away Europa League games too and I think that experience can help Genk get the better of a team who have been treading water in recent games.

I do think Sarpsborg can offer some problems being at home where they have won 3 of their 4 Europa League games. However you can't ignore the really poor form they are in and they have conceded at least twice in their last 3 home games.

With the goals Genk are scoring I will look for the visitors to win a fixture that features two or more goals.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juventus - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lyon @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roma - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 2.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Porto - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Napoli-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bordeaux @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Eintracht Frankfurt-Lazio Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rangers - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Genk & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

September 2018: 26-24, + 3.62 Units (100 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
August 2018: 15-12, + 3.10 Units (54 Units Staked, + 5.74% Yield)