Midweek Football Picks 2018 (November 6-8)

The international break is fast approaching in November, but there is time for one more round of Champions League and Europa League Group Stage matches. Match Day 4 of both competitions is a time when some teams will begin to earn their places in the Knock Out Rounds while others are on the way out of European competition.

This is already a pressurised situation for teams who may need all the points they can earn to challenge for Knock Out spots and some of the English representatives have been left in difficult spots after the results of Match Day 3.

Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal are in comfortable positions, but Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have some work to do if they are going to progress from the Group Stage.

Out of those three teams Tottenham Hotspur look in the most precarious position, but things can quickly change with two Champions League rounds to be played in November and they can get back on track this week.


Crevena Zvezda v Liverpool Pick: We have reached the stage of the Champions League Group Stage where teams can be in a position to move through to the Last 16 of the competition while others begin to realise their European adventure is almost at a close.

That is not entirely the case for this Group which sees two points separate Liverpool at the top of the section and Paris Saint-Germain in 3rd place with Napoli in between. All three teams will feel they are good enough to have an impact in the Champions League and that makes their remaining games against Crvena Zvezda as 'must win' fixtures.

Napoli have already dropped points here, but Liverpool will head to the Serbian capital as a big favourite to beat Crvena Zvezda who have found the step up to the Champions League a gap too far to bridge. Holding Napoli will give Crvena Zvezda some confidence, but the heavy losses to Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool two weeks ago will have dented some of that and the home team will need all the passion coming from the stands to inspire them to a famous result.

In reality Crvena Zvezda were perhaps a little fortunate to even earn the goalless draw with Napoli and it will be very difficult to contain this Liverpool team. Goals have not exactly been flowing for Liverpool away from home, but they have been on a tough run and this Crvena Zvezda team are not up to the level of Chelsea, Napoli or Arsenal.

Last season Arsenal did earn a tough win here and playing in Belgrade is never easy, but Liverpool should be starting a strong team knowing the Champions League Group is still very much in the balance. With the defensive shape Liverpool have shown this season I think they can win this game and contain the Crvena Zvezda attack which will mainly be a threat from set pieces.

I expect Crvena Zvezda to cause some problems with the support they are going to have behind them, but that may not be enough to upset Liverpool. A tough away win looks to be on the cards which makes the Asian Handicap unappealing, but backing Liverpool to win to nil is a decent looking price.

Crvena Zvezda have failed to score in their last couple of home European games and in 4 of their last 8 here. Liverpool can become the latest to keep a clean sheet here as they put up three points to continue to lead this Group.


Inter Milan v Barcelona Pick: The Group has developed in such a way that Barcelona can win on Tuesday and that would not only be enough to make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League but allow them to do that as Group Winners.

The theory is that it means an 'easier' Second Round tie in the Champions League and that has to be the focus for Barcelona so they can put full focus on the Spanish Primera Division in the weeks ahead.

Lionel Messi's absence has not slowed down Barcelona's attacking threat as shown in their 2-0 win over Inter Milan two weeks ago and in their 2-3 win at Rayo Vallecano in the League this past weekend. The goals conceded are more of a concern for Barcelona fans and this is a team who have looked more vulnerable away from home.

Even in the home win over Inter there were enough chances for the Italian team to be confident of their chances of perhaps producing an upset.

Inter Milan create plenty of chances at home and they don't have a lot to lose by giving this game a real go considering both Tottenham Hotspur and PSV Eindhoven have a point each in the Group. A win for Inter Milan would put them right on the edge of making it through to the Last 16 and so there has to be a real effort at trying to pick up those points here.

Barcelona have not been the best traveller in recent Champions League years and they have not enjoyed recent visits to Italy. In the last couple of seasons Barcelona have lost Knock Out ties by the same 3-0 scoreline at Juventus and Roma.

This time Barcelona look like they have enough of an attacking threat to challenge Inter Milan and could also have Lionel Messi returning from injury. Inter Milan will feel they can also test a vulnerable Barcelona defence and I think these teams are going to combine for a decent game of football that ends with at least three goals shared out.


Napoli v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: A Group containing Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli looked like one that could see all three teams push each other all the way to Match Day 6 before determining those who will make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League.

A couple of surprising results involving Napoli have just changed the whole feel of the Group- this is a team who could not win at Crvena Zvezda on Match Day 1, but Napoli have since beaten Liverpool at home and then draw in the French Capital against PSG.

The last result means a home win for Napoli on Tuesday will put them in a very strong position to make it through to the Last 16. With a home game to come against the Serbian Champions later this month, Napoli will know two home wins are going to be good enough to see them through to the Last 16.

Napoli are a point clear of Paris Saint-Germain having been unbeaten in the Group and a 4 point lead with two games to come would be tough to blow. However they have to feel that Paris Saint-Germain are going to be much better than they were two weeks ago and this becomes a dangerous game that is hard to pick a winner from.

Home advantage is enough of an edge to make Napoli appealing as the underdog, but the Italian side are one that will give up chances to opponents who are willing to take the game to them. The French Champions will do that, but Napoli showed there are some vulnerabilities in the Paris Saint-Germain defence too and I can see another game which features goals developing.

The layers feel the same and they do think there will be at least three goals shared out at odds on. I expect that total to be hit, but I am going to back at least four goals to be shared out as there was when these teams met in Paris two weeks ago.

Napoli are a team who will look to attack with some talented players in the final third while Paris Saint-Germain games continue to produce fireworks and I will look for that to occur on Tuesday.


Porto v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: There has been a much improved performance coming from Lokomotiv Moscow which has to be respected, but they look like they have dug too big a hole to climb out of in the Champions League.

The Russian Premier League has to be the focus for Lokomotiv Moscow and despite beginning to put the wins together they have still been struggling in the Champions League. Losses to Galatasaray, Schalke and Porto have been difficult to swallow and the fact that two of those have come at home means Lokomotiv Moscow are unlikely to progress out of this Group.

Things do look much better for Porto who have won back to back Champions League games to top the Group. Another win on Tuesday will put Porto on the brink of making it through to the Last 16 and they are a team who have been strong enough at home in Europe to believe they can win this fixture.

Lokomotiv Moscow have lost back to back away games in Europe by the same 3-0 scoreline at Atletico Madrid and Galatasaray. They are in the difficult position of having to attack against a Porto team who will thrive on the counter attack and I do think it is going to be very difficult for the Russian Champions to earn a result here.

They have conceded too many goals in the Champions League and Porto can match the margin of victory secured in the Russian capital. Porto did have a narrow win over Galatasaray at home in the Group, but they should find more spaces to exploit against a Lokomotiv Moscow who have to come forward and I will back the Portuguese leaders to win this game and cover the Asian Handicap in the process.


Tottenham Hotspur v PSV Eindhoven Pick: If Champions League games were played for 85 minutes rather than 90 minutes Tottenham Hotspur would have had two wins under their belt in this Group and be in a strong position to make it through to the Last 16. However that is not the case and Tottenham Hotspur blew a 0-1 lead at Inter Milan to concede twice, while a 1-2 lead at PSV Eindhoven ended in a 2-2 draw.

So instead of being in a strong position, Tottenham Hotspur find themselves 5 points behind Inter Milan in 2nd place in this Group and now have two must win home Champions League games to be played this month. Win both and Tottenham Hotspur will have a chance to make it through to the Last 16 when visiting an already Qualified Barcelona on Match Day 6, but anything less and this will be seen as a really disappointing campaign in the Champions League.

You have to wonder about the state of the playing surface at Wembley Stadium with just eight days since it was used on back to back days. That is going to make it difficult for two teams who do like to pass the ball and play attacking football, but Tottenham Hotspur have run out of excuses having blown games already in the Champions League.

They have to put PSV Eindhoven under pressure from the off and I do think Tottenham Hotspur are capable of doing that. The Premier League club looked much better than PSV Eindhoven for long periods of the game on Match Day 3 and it was only two errors that allowed the Dutch Champions to secure a point.

PSV Eindhoven have to be respected for the way they continue to dominate domestically, but the Dutch League has slipped off the standards it once had. In the Champions League PSV Eindhoven have looked second best in all 3 Group games played and this is a team who have lost 4 of their last 5 away European ties.

I expect Tottenham Hotspur to add to that even through the injury crisis they are suffering in centre midfield. I am a little concerned with the defensive performances of late which has seen Tottenham Hotspur offer chances to opponents, while they have lost 3 of their last 4 at Wembley Stadium.

However those defeats have come against some of the best teams in Europe and I will back Tottenham Hotspur to reinvigorate their Champions League challenge by winning this game by a couple of goals on the day.


CSKA Moscow v Roma Pick: When you factor in Roma's run of 1 win from their last 17 away games in the Champions League it is hard to imagine that they would be as short a price as they are to win in Moscow on Match Day 4.

Roma did crush CSKA Moscow at home a couple of weeks ago but they have shown they are not quite so good on their travels and come into this one on a run of 5 consecutive losses on their travels in the Champions League.

The majority of those defeats have come against some of the best teams in European Football although Roma were beaten in Shakhtar Donetsk last season too. Those results are a concern but even then I do think Roma can win this game with the amount of chances they are likely going to create against this CSKA Moscow team.

On Match Day CSKA Moscow did beat Real Madrid 1-0 here, but the European Champions are out of whack at the moment and even then they were unfortunate to not only avoid a defeat but to win in the Russian capital. Since that win CSKA Moscow have lost back to back home games in the Russian Premier League while they also lost 2 of their 3 home Group games in the Champions League twelve months ago.

Roma have been a little inconsistent this season with some young, talented players being brought in to back up the team that reached the Semi Final of the Champions League last season. They have not been dominant away from home, but Roma do create enough chances to think they can win here and move into a strong position to make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League.

The first goal will be crucial, but I do think Roma can be backed despite their awful away record in the Champions League.


Valencia v Young Boys Pick: As a Manchester United fan seeing another draw between Valencia and Young Boys would be an ideal result as it could mean a place in the Last 16 could be secured before Match Day 6 is played.

Even a Young Boys win in Spain would not be a bad result for United who would then be a home win over the Swiss side from making it through.

Both Valencia and Young Boys are unconcerned by what Manchester United fans want though and these teams have to be well aware of the importance of winning this fixture to have a chance to progress from this Group. The losing team would almost certainly be missing out on a place in the Last 16 of the Champions League and that pressure can make it difficult for players to perform.

Valencia have really struggled to turn draws into wins all season which does make it hard to trust them to win any game of football. The 0-1 home loss to Girona was a really poor result for Valencia, although they created enough chances to think they are going to turn thing around and start putting the wins on the board.

They will have to respect a Young Boys team who should really have beaten Valencia in Switzerland a couple of weeks ago. However Young Boys have not been as good away from home in European Football in recent years and that may give Valencia enough of an edge to earn what will be a very important win for them on Wednesday.

The draws are a real concern for Valencia backers, but they have been creating chances and I think they can get the better of Young Boys this time. It may not be the result I would want to see but Valencia should also have chances on the counter attack if they are leading as Young Boys try and get back into the Group too.

I will look to back Valencia to win this game and will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Juventus v Manchester United Pick: It was an eye-opening experience for Manchester United fans and players alike as they were convincingly beaten by Juventus at Old Trafford two weeks ago to show how far behind the European elite Manchester United have slipped.

They get a second chance to prove the gap is not as big as it looked at Old Trafford but the test is much bigger when heading to Turin where Juventus have generally been so strong.

Prior to the win over Young Boys Juventus had failed to win any of 3 home Champions League games but those came against Barcelona, Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur with the last of those seeing Juventus blow a 2-0 lead.

With recent Manchester United starts to fixtures it is a real concern that they could find themselves in a hole they can't dig out of in this fixture. Manchester United have shown enough to fight back and draw with Chelsea, but Juventus may be a step up from The Blues and this is a team who have made scoring look very, very easy for most of the season.

That is a real concern for Manchester United whose defensive shape has not been at its best and the chances teams are creating against them is a real problem ahead of this fixture and the Manchester derby on Sunday. It makes it very difficult to see a different outcome to this fixture on Match Day 4 as what we saw at Old Trafford, although Juventus are even more clinical in front of their own fans and the suggestion is that this margin of victory is also greater than two weeks ago.

Backing Juventus to win a game featuring two or more goals may be one for non-Manchester United fans out there.


Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: There are some major leaks coming out about Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain, but I don't think there will be a serious impact on the playing side of things as they look to take complete control of their Champions League Group.

Back to back away wins have moved Manchester City to the top of the section, but it is a little strange to think they have lost their last 3 home Champions League games. I would imagine they stop that run on Wednesday when they face Shakhtar Donetsk for the second time in the Group having won 0-3 in the Ukraine two weeks ago.

Last season Manchester City were comfortable 2-0 winners over Shakhtar Donetsk and the feeling is they are going to be fairly comfortable again.

There will likely be some changes to the starting eleven with the Manchester derby in mind, but Pep Guardiola will want his team to keep the momentum going having won 4 in a row at the Etihad Stadium since their 1-2 loss to Lyon in the Champions League.

The attacking threat posed by Manchester City won't be lessened even with the changes they are likely to make. While Shakhtar Donetsk are a talented team who can be a threat going forward themselves, I think they play with a freedom that can be exposed by Manchester City as they were in the home game a couple of weeks ago.

As with any Manchester City home game against supposedly lesser teams they are going to be asked to cover a big handicap for a decent payout. Last season Shakhtar Donetsk lost 2-0 here and were 3-0 losers in Napoli and I do think Manchester City are playing with enough confidence to secure a big win here with the chances they are likely to create after once again dominating the ball against Shakhtar Donetsk.


Dynamo Kiev v Rennes Pick: There was an element of fortune for Dynamo Kiev in winning 1-2 in Rennes on Match Day 3 and they can't take anything for granted in this Europa League Group which looks to be one of the more competitive ones in the tournament.

Another victory would put Dynamo Kiev in a very strong position in the Group, but they have been inconsistent both at home and in Europe which makes it difficult to trust them.

Dynamo Kiev have only won 1 of their last 5 home games in European competition and they have failed to win their last 2 this season against Ajax and Astana. You could make a serious argument that both are superior to a Rennes team who have been struggling at the wrong end of the French top flight, but there may also be a slight lack of belief in the home dressing room which is contributing to some inconsistent results.

On the other hand Rennes may be unbeaten in their last 3 away games since their loss in Astana which has left them in 3rd place in the Group, but they have now lost 4 straight away Europa League ties.

They can create chances which makes them dangerous, but I think Dynamo Kiev will be a little too good for them with home advantage the key. Both teams can score goals, but I like Dynamo Kiev and will back them on the Asian Handicap to get the better of their visitors.


BATE Borisov v Chelsea Pick: It can be difficult to get a read on what a manager will do in the Europa League, especially those that manage in the Premier League but I think this game is pretty easy to read.

The layers seem to be on the same page as me with the Chelsea price looking fairly attractive as most of the starting players will be left at home.

A long trip to Belarus before a home game with Everton is not ideal for Maurizio Sarri, but he has rotated his squad throughout the Europa League Group Stage and it hasn't affected Chelsea at all. They have won all 3 Group games played and Chelsea have been far too good for the other teams in this section and I think they can win in Belarus when they visit on Match Day 4.

Last year BATE Borisov were being hammered by Arsenal in both games played against them in this competition. The 3-1 defeat at Stamford Bridge looks close, but Chelsea dominated and they should have enough about them in the final third to get the better of their hosts again.

BATE Borisov have lost back to back home games in European competition and conceded at least three goals in both against PSV Eindhoven and PAOK. They will have to be a lot better defensively if they are going to contain Chelsea and I think the visitors will return with a comfortable victory and cover the Asian Handicap.


Lazio v Marseille Pick: You have to question the belief of the Marseille players as they head into Match Day 4 of the Europa League having lost 3 in a row in all competitions and also finding themselves on the brink of exiting the Europa League in which they had reached the Final a few months ago.

There is pressure on Marseille to find a way to win in the Italian capital, but they have a poor away record in the Europa League in recent years and it is hard to see how they turn that around.

As poor as Marseille have been on their travels Lazio have been strong at home and they know another win could see them put the Europa League to the back burner until February. They have been very good at home with 5 wins from their last 6 at the Stadio Olimpico and Lazio have created plenty of chances and scored plenty of goals in those games.

Marseille are better than what they showed in the 1-3 home defeat to Lazio, but following that up with back to back losses to Paris Saint-Germain and Montpellier while conceding at least two goals in each game is hard to ignore. They have to attack here too with a point likely not good enough as one more for Lazio from their remaining two games would see them at least finish above Marseille and Eintracht Frankfurt are clear.

With a team likely having to come forward, Lazio can punish Marseille on the counter attack and I will back the home team to win a game featuring two or more goals.


Rapid Vienna v Villarreal Pick: With just 3 points separating the four teams in this Group, a win on Match Day 4 for either Rapid Vienna or Villarreal could be a huge boost in their bid to earn their place in the Last 32 of this competition.

The 5-0 loss in Spain has put Rapid Vienna in a difficult position, but they have two games left to play at home in the Group and winning both should be good enough to move out of the section.

It won't be easy against a Villarreal team who have drawn half of their last 8 games in all competitions, but Rapid Vienna will have chances. Villarreal have not won any of their last 4 away games and they have been conceding plenty of goals in that time which is something that Rapid Vienna will look to exploit.

I expect the home team to create chances, but Villarreal should also be able to create some opportunities. They have scored in their last 6 away games and Villarreal have been able to create plenty of chances of their own while the dominant win over Rapid Vienna will give the players confidence.

These teams met in the Europa League Group Stage three seasons ago and it was Rapid Vienna who edged out Villarreal when they played here. They did share out three goals that day and I think these teams will both score on Match Day 4.

With the importance of the three points on the line, I think the teams will take risks to win this game too and I think it is worth backing at least four goals to be shared out between these teams on Thursday.


Vidi v PAOK Pick: This has been a Group that has been dominated by Chelsea and not seen one home win outside of the two the English club have earned in the section.

Vidi were beaten at home by BATE Borisov who have lost at home to PAOK who were last seen losing to Vidi at home which means second place in the Group is wide open.

Both teams will have all to play for on Thursday and I am slightly surprised PAOK are the favourites away from home. It wasn't an undeserved loss at home two weeks ago and so the layers are expecting a lot for things to be turned around that significantly.

However PAOK are far better than what they showed in the game at home and Vidi are a hard team to read. They can certainly make this a very competitive game and I think both teams will have their chances to score which makes the price on seeing both scoring in this fixture look appealing enough.

An early goal could really open the whole game up with the three points being so important for both teams assuming Chelsea beat BATE Borisov in the other game in the Group.


Arsenal v Sporting Pick: The win in Portugal two weeks has put Arsenal on the brink of making it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League and this is clearly a competition that Unai Emery wants to be successful in.

He has won the Europa League as manager multiple times as manager of Sevilla and Emery has admitted he would prefer returning to the Champions League with a trophy rather than simply finishing in the top four of the Premier League.

Arsenal look good in the Premier League despite back to back draws against Crystal Palace and Liverpool and they will want to get back to winning ways ahead of the next international break. Two home games remain before the international break begins and Emery looks to be a manager who will play strong teams in the Europa League so I am not concerned about backing The Gunners.

Two weeks they looked significantly better than Sporting and I expect the home team to frank that form. As solid a start Sporting have made to the new season it is clear they are not the best European travellers with 4 losses from their last 6 away European ties.

Losing key players in the summer has not put Sporting in as difficult a position as was suggested it was going to be, but they are going to need to be a lot better on Match Day 4 than they were when they hosted Arsenal.

All in all it is hard to see anything other than a strong Arsenal win as Emery looks to secure a place in the Last 32. The manager should pick a team to reflect his desire to put the Europa League aside until February prior to the busy festive period in England and I will back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap.


Bayer Leverkusen v Zurich Pick: After a 3-2 win for Zurich on Match Day 3 between these teams in Switzerland I am expecting to see another high-scoring game between Bayer Leverkusen and Zurich when they meet for the second time in this Group.

The two teams look certain to be heading into the Last 32 of the Europa League together, but Bayer Leverkusen will want to get back on track in trying to win the Group.

Leverkusen games at home have been full of goals as they have shown a real attacking intent, but the Bundesliga team have not been as strong defensively as they would like. Even a Zurich team coming out of the Switzerland top flight can cause problems for Leverkusen, although I am expecting the German team to have enough going forward to hurt their visitors too.

Zurich really have nothing to lose here and that should see them take part in an entertaining game. A draw would put them in command of the Group, but Zurich will be looking to work the counter attack throughout this fixture and I do think there will be goals in this one.

Backing at least four more to be shared out by Bayer Leverkusen and Zurich after the five shared out in Switzerland is my selection.


Celtic v Leipzig Pick: Both Celtic and Leipzig are coming into Match Day 4 in decent form and I do think this is going to be a much more competitive fixture than when they met in Germany two weeks ago.

On that day Leipzig were far too good for Celtic and the Bundesliga club could have won by a much larger margin than the eventual 2-0 scoreline.

It was a bad day in the office for Brendan Rodgers and his Celtic players, but they should be able to produce a much more all around effort when playing at Celtic Park. They have not been dominant at home, but Celtic have won 5 of their last 6 European games here and they are facing a Leipzig team who are still finding their feet when it comes to travelling for European games.

Leipzig did win at Rosenborg in this Group though which will give them the belief they will need to take into this game.

Overall it looks very difficult to pick a winner, but I would have to expect there will be more chances in front of goal for both teams. They created enough two weeks ago to share out at least three goals and the situation for Celtic is clear that they likely need to win this game which means they could leave spaces for Leipzig to exploit in this one.

Celtic should be able to be a little better in all aspects of their game in this fixture and I think both teams will be able to score in this game. With the situation as it is, I will look for these teams to share out at least three goals on Thursday in what could be one of the more entertaining Europa League games to be played on Match Day 4.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Win to Nil @ 1.85 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Inter Milan-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Napoli-Paris Saint-Germain Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Porto - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roma @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Valencia - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juventus & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lazio & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rapid Vienna-Villarreal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.62 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vidi-PAOK Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen-Zurich Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Celtic-Leipzig Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November: 5-5, - 1.66 Units (20 Units Staked, - 8.30% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (October 31-November 2)

We are onto Match Day 4 of both the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage and this is the time of the season when we can start confirming participants in the Knock Out Rounds of those competitions.

For the English clubs it is really important to confirm places now and ensure some of the starters can earn their rest on Match Day 5 and Match Day 6 if possible. Ahead of what is a very busy December all the rest you can get is important, although all of those clubs will be keen to in their Group and thus earn what should be a relatively easier draw for the Last 16/Last 32 respectively.


We are almost through to the final international break of 2017 which begins on Monday 6th November as the next round of League games return on Saturday 18th November. It is going to be a particularly boring two weeks with international friendlies the main course of football although the final World Cup Qualifiers will also take place.

After that it won't be long to wait until the World Cup Finals draw is made and thankfully the international football can be put to the back burner until March as the meat of the season for the club sides takes place.


Celtic v Bayern Munich Pick: There was a real sense from Celtic fans that their team could get something from the Match Day 3 clash in Munich against Bayern, but the difference in quality between these teams was telling on the night.

Being back at Celtic Park for Match Day 4 might give the fans a little belief that the gap can be bridged as Celtic look to secure a win that would give them a chance of making the Last 16 in the Champions League. The absence of Robert Lewandowski has to only be further encouragement, but I am not sure Celtic are really good enough to compete with one of the favourites to win the Champions League.

Home advantage helps, but Celtic have lost 3 of the 4 home Group games played under Brendan Rodgers and all of those losses have come by at least two goals. Celtic have even failed to score in those defeats and I do wonder if they are capable of better when they host Bayern Munich.

Rodgers won’t change his philosophy and I think that plays into the hands of the big clubs they are facing in this Group. Paris Saint-Germain scored five at Celtic Park and Bayern Munich banged in three at home on Match Day 3 against a Celtic team that will look to attack and thus leave themselves a little more open.

Barcelona benefited with two comfortable wins over Celtic last season in the Group Stage and Borussia Monchengladbach won 0-2 here too. Even though Bayern Munich have not travelled so well as they have played at home and are likely to play a ‘false nine’ system, I do expect their quality can tell in this one.

The injuries to Lewandowski and Thomas Muller do raise some questions for Bayern Munich, but I think they can follow the likes of the teams I have mentioned and win at Celtic Park. With the home team unlikely to take a backwards step, Bayern Munich may find the space on the counter attack to win this one by a couple of goals on the night.


Manchester United v Benfica Pick: After beginning the season with goals flowing, the last month has been a little more pragmatic from Jose Mourinho as we have seen one goal be enough to beat Benfica and Tottenham Hotspur.

The manager would likely take that result again and then have a chance to almost put a pin in the Champions League until February with top spot almost secured too. That will be the aim for Manchester United as they look to make it four wins from four in the Group and the form at Old Trafford has been much more convincing to suggest that is the only realistic outcome of this Match Day 4 encounter.

Some of the belief has to have filtered away from the Benfica squad having lost all three Group games and two of those having come at the Stadium of Light. While recent form has been better, Benfica haven’t faced too many teams as strong as Manchester United who were clearly the better team in Lisbon two weeks ago.

I expect Manchester United to have the majority of play in this one in the final third and the fact they have a few days to prepare for the Chelsea game at the weekend should mean Mourinho picks a strong team. Romelu Lukaku will be looking to get back to scoring form having not found the net over the last month, but he does have a couple of assists which will keep Mourinho happy.

The young Benfica goalkeeper looked pretty nervous when he played in the reverse fixture two weeks ago and Manchester United will look to expose that again.

Benfica have not travelled well in the Champions League in the last twelve months with 4 losses from their last 6 and I think they will struggle here. With Manchester United holding a very strong recent record at Old Trafford, I will look for the home team to secure a comfortable win and cover the Asian Handicap.


Roma v Chelsea Pick: This could be a pivotal game for both Chelsea and Roma in this Champions League Group as the winner would feel in a very strong position to move through to the Last 16, while the losing team will begin to worry about Atletico Madrid.

It does feel more important to Roma than Chelsea with the points the way they are in the Group, but the busy December in England will mean Antonio Conte is also desperate to see his side confirm their Last 16 spot before the final round of games.

A win in Rome will give Chelsea every chance of not only going through, but winning this Group on Match Day 5 when they visit Qarabag. However this is going to be a test for Chelsea even though their best results have come away from home so far in the 2017/18 season.

Chelsea will feel they can score goals here, but they have to defend better than they did at Stamford Bridge in the 3-3 draw with Roma. On the other hand I am not sure Roma can play as well as they did two weeks ago, especially when you note the poor home record in the Champions League.

However Roma have only been beaten in 1 of their last 6 home European ties and that has to be respected. They were perhaps a little fortunate to avoid defeat to Atletico Madrid on Match Day 1 of the Group Stage though and I think Chelsea have shown they can produce big away performances.

The layers are finding it hard to separate the teams, but a team who won in Atletico Madrid are clearly capable of winning here in Rome. It won’t be easy for Chelsea, but I think Roma may be a touch overrated after their performance at Stamford Bridge and I am not expecting Chelsea to defend as poorly as they did that day.

Backing Chelsea on the Asian Handicap, which is essentially a ‘draw no bet’ option, looks the way to go with this one.


Besiktas v Monaco Pick: This looked a wide open Group when it was drawn out as none of the four teams looked to be dominant, but Besiktas might be changing the mind having won all three games so far. It would need a lot of things going against the Turkish Champions to prevent them earning a spot in the Last 16 now, but the focus will be on trying to win the Group as they look to do the double over Monaco.

While Monaco are still looking to be the greatest threat to Paris Saint-Germain domestically, the players they have lost in the summer transfer window have hurt the club. It is no surprise that they have taken a step back, but even that quality team they had last season was one that struggled on their travels.

This Monaco team have earned a result in Leipzig in the Group, but they have only won 1 of their last 6 away Champions League games and have lost half of those. They are now travelling to a Besiktas team who have been much stronger at home historically and who beat the likes of Lyon and Olympiacos over the last few months before also beating Leipzig here in the Group.

Besiktas definitely look to be playing with more confidence than Monaco and can almost secure a top spot finish with a victory on Wednesday. At odds against I think they can be backed to extend their winning run in the section.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Feyenoord Pick: With Napoli and Manchester City playing the second of their double header against one another, Shakhtar Donetsk have to take advantage by making sure they earn maximum points against Feyenoord. They have done the hard work by winning in Rotterdam on Match Day 3, although Feyenoord could be dangerous as they have almost nothing to lose and have to find a way to earn a win to stay alive.

That can make players loosen up enough to cause an upset, but Feyenoord have been in poor recent form with losses in 6 of their last 11 in all competitions. They have looked to be outclassed in this Champions League Group, while confidence has to have been shattered with poor performances both in the Netherlands and in Europe.

The home defeat to Shakhtar Donetsk would have been a huge blow to Feyenoord's chances of making it through to the Last 16 and maybe even to get into the Europa League. Now they have to find a way to win here against a team who have won 6 of their last 7 home European ties and generally been playing well at home as Shakhtar Donetsk recently saw their 6 game home winning run snapped.

Anything other than a home win here would be a surprise with the confidence the two teams will enter Match Day 4. Feyenoord were only narrowly beaten at home by Shakhtar Donetsk, but I think that defeat might have ended any belief this team has of making it through to the Knock Out Rounds, and Feyenoord were beaten easily in their other two games against Manchester City and Napoli.

You would worry about Feyenoord if they fall behind in this one and whether they would have much fight back, and I will back Shakhtar Donetsk to win by a couple of goals at the least.


Sevilla v Spartak Moscow Pick: The 5-1 mauling Sevilla suffered at the hands of Spartak Moscow in the Russian capital has to have been one that the players would have been looking to earn a measure of revenge from ever since it happened. It has opened up this Group and put Sevilla in a difficult position, although back to back home games against Spartak Moscow and Liverpool means their destiny is in their own hands.

The result in Russia was a real surprise when you consider the form Spartak Moscow had been in, but they have been an improving team and the confidence has been restored.

Doing the same on their travels is a big test for them though and I am not sure they will be able to compete with Sevilla as effectively as they did at home. Sevilla are a much stronger team at home than they are on their travels and this is a team that can score goals in front of their own fans which should put the pressure on Spartak Moscow.

It won't be easy for Sevilla, but I do think they will create the majority of the chances and they will be able to earn the three points available on Wednesday. Spartak Moscow earned a 1-1 draw in Maribor, but the latter have not looked good since then and I will back Sevilla to find their way to a win by a couple of goals on the night.


Napoli v Manchester City Pick: Both Napoli and Manchester City have made very strong starts to their domestic League form and winning the title in Italy and England respectively has to be the main aim for both clubs. However Pep Guardiola has been brought into Manchester City to take them forward in the Champions League and they are definitely putting more stock into this competition than Napoli seemingly are.

In saying that, I fully expect Napoli to start a strong team like they did at the Etihad Stadium when they were perhaps a little unlucky not to get something out of the game. That has left Napoli in a difficult spot in the Group and they almost have to win this one to stay in touch with the two leading teams or risk having to settle for a place in the Europa League.

Napoli have been very good in Italy and they showed they can create opportunities against Manchester City when almost coming back from 2-0 down two weeks ago. They should be able to do the same in front of their own fans, although the concern will always be leaving space for Manchester City to exploit on the counter attack.

Pep Guardiola will expect his side to get forward and create chances and that has been a feature of Manchester City games in recent Champions League away games. Manchester City have played 6 away Champions League games under the Spaniard and in 5 of those there have been at least four goals shared out.

Napoli home games in this competition have been no less exciting as 4 of the last 6 have ended with at least four goals shared out. With the way the two teams gelled two weeks ago I am going back to the market of looking for at least four goals shared out which was barely missed when they played in Manchester.

I can't see either team really looking to take a backward step and the situation means Napoli have to get forward and score goals to win the game. Manchester City don't really play anything but attacking football under Guardiola and I will look for goals in this one.


Tottenham Hotspur v Real Madrid Pick: There is every chance that both of these teams are already in a position to make it through to the Last 16 of the Champions League, but the winner of this one will likely win the Group and earn the 'easier' of the ties in the Second Round.

That should make the game a competitive one with more attacking football like we saw when these two teams met in the Spanish capital two weeks ago. There were plenty of chances for both teams to win on that day and I expect the Wembley Stadium dimensions to leave space for both Tottenham Hotspur and Real Madrid in this one too.

Harry Kane could be available for the home team and that is clearly a big boost for them if they do want to upset Real Madrid. Kane provides an attacking impetus for Spurs, but Real Madrid showed they can create chances of their own and only an inspired Hugo Lloris prevented more goals two weeks ago.

Tottenham Hotspur's last two games at Wembley in the Champions League have featured at least four goals shared out. Also note 4 of the last 7 Real Madrid away games in the Champions League have seen that number reached and I will back there being at least four goals in this one.


Apollon v Atalanta Pick: I was immediately surprised by the prices for this game as Atalanta are not only favoured to win in Cyprus, but favoured at odds on to do that. That is surprising when you think Atalanta have yet to win away from home this season, while Apollon are unbeaten in 8 home games in European competition including a 1-1 draw with Lyon earlier in the Group.

Atalanta are a team who have struggled for clean sheets away from home and one who don't need to win this game if they are going to move through to the Last 32. Combining those two factors it is hard to see Atalanta as an odds on favourite here let alone one who are expected to win by a wide margin.

Both teams to score is a decent way to get involved in this one with the way Atalanta games have gone this season and Apollon have seen 4 of their last 6 at home also finish with both teams scoring. However I am more intrigued by Apollon having gone 27 games unbeaten in all competitions and already earning a result against Lyon here in the Europa League.

Having the start on the Asian Handicap will mean half the stake is returned if Atalanta win by a single goal margin. I do think Apollon can make a game of this one and they have every chance of avoiding the loss and have to be worth backing to do that against an opponent who have yet to win away from home and likely would accept a point already.


Lyon v Everton Pick: It has become clear that the Europa League is not the priority for Everton as it may have been if their season hadn't unravelled in the fashion it has over the first three months of the 2017/18 campaign. The Premier League form has been really poor and Everton are desperate to get things right domestically which means players will be rested for the game against Watford to come on Sunday.

That is the decision made by David Unsworth despite Everton being on the brink of exiting the Europa League. A win would actually reignite their bid to get through to the Last 16, but I am not sure that belief is there after the 1-2 defeat to Lyon at Goodison Park two weeks ago.

With the players being rested and now facing a Lyon side who have been playing with real confidence, it is difficult to see how Everton can prevent a defeat here. Lyon had won 4 in a row in European competition at home before the 1-1 draw with Atalanta, but they are still in a strong position in the Group and will be expected to make it through to the Last 32 having secured that win at Everton.

Wins over Monaco and Metz have kept the confidence going for Lyon and I think they will prove to be too good for Everton on the day. Everton have been losing too many games of late to think they will turn it around here and I will back Lyon to cover the Asian Handicap in a comfortable home win to move to the brink of making it through to the Last 32.


Maccabi Tel Aviv v Astana Pick: Match Day 4 of the Group Stage of either the Champions League and Europa League competitions is pivotal as we start to see which teams have made it through to the Knock Out Rounds and which teams are now exiting European Football.

That is where Maccabi Tel Aviv find themselves as a loss would likely mean they are finished with the Europa League, but on the other hand a win could really get them on a roll in the Group. With 2 of their remaining 3 Group games coming at home, Maccabi Tel Aviv will feel they can get back into contention as they are only 4 points behind the leaders, but that won't be easy against Astana.

First off they have to remove the memories of the 4-0 loss in Kazakhstan from their mind from two weeks ago. Playing at home should make a big difference for Maccabi Tel Aviv considering how poorly Astana have travelled in European competition although I do imagine this will be a tight game and with little between them.

It does make picking a winner a little more haphazard, but I do think Maccabi Tel Aviv can make home form count. Astana have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in European competition and Maccabi Tel Aviv are unbeaten in 7 home games in the Europa League since blowing a 3-0 lead over Zenit St Petersburg in a 3-4 defeat in the Group Stage last season.

At odds against the Israeli team can be backed, although I would keep stakes to a minimum in this one.


Arsenal v Red Star Belgrade Pick: There shouldn't be any surprise that Arsenal are going to be making a host of changes to their side for this one considering they have the daunting task of facing Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday. With the Europa League Group firmly in hand, Arsene Wenger will send out his Cup side which has performed well so far this season.

I don't think anyone will be buying the suggestion that the Cup team are giving the first team as much difficulty in training as Wenger is suggesting, but it is good enough at this stage of the Europa League. Bigger tests will come for Arsenal after Christmas when they may have to start considering this competition as the best route into the Champions League, but Wenger won't give up on the Premier League.

Arsenal should still continue to be too good for the teams they are facing in this Group though and the layers aren't giving anything away on The Gunners making it four out of four wins on Thursday. They should be too good for Red Star Belgrade having won in Serbia, but that was a tight game and this one might be the same.

As well as Arsenal have done to progress through the Europa League and League Cup, this will be the fourth game at the Emirates Stadium and they have only won 1 of the previous 3 by more than a single goal margin. The changed line up needed extra time to beat Norwich City in the League Cup Fourth Round and they needed a come from behind performance to knock off FC Koln in the Europa League.

In that game they had a stronger team than they are likely to begin this one with and I think Red Star Belgrade are worth a small interest with the start on the Asian Handicap. Red Star have won at Sparta Prague and FC Koln and lost narrowly at Krasnodar which shows they can be competitive and backing them to at least keep this tight for much of the evening has to be worth a poke.


Athletic Bilbao v Ostersunds Pick: Time is running out for Athletic Bilbao if they want to make it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League and that means they have to win this game on Match Day 4. They came into the Group Stage as the favourites to progress, but Athletic Bilbao have only earned 2 points which means they are 4 points behind 2nd placed Zorya.

Things will be looking up for Athletic Bilbao if they can win this game against Ostersunds and close on the Swedish side who lead the Group. Two weeks ago Bilbao managed to draw 2-2 away from home and generally they have been stronger at home.

Ostersunds are overachieving significantly in their first season in European Football, and they have won 2 of 4 away games in the Europa League. However they were beaten comfortably at PAOK and I think they may struggle to stay with Athletic Bilbao in this one.

The visitors have to be respected and look capable of making the Last 32, but I think they will have to wait at least three weeks to have a chance to secure their passage through. I will be looking for Athletic Bilbao to win this one and cover the Asian Handicap on the night.


Lazio v Nice Pick: These two teams come into this fixture in contrasting form and Lazio should be able to continue their run to earn their place in the Last 32 of the Europa League.

While Lazio have put a winning run together, Nice have been on a negative spiral and it will be difficult for them to earn a result here.

Lazio have been scoring goals for fun at home and they should be ready to beat Nice for a second time in two weeks. Now they host a team who have not scored in their last couple of away games while being beaten fairly comfortably at Paris Saint-Germain and Montpellier.

A lack of goals is not what you want when facing this Lazio team who have been so strong at home and I will back the Italian club to secure their place as Group winners by beating Nice by a couple of goals on the night.


Viktoria Plzen v Lugano Pick: Outside of Steaua Bucharest, this is a Group where any of three teams can make it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League which makes this a big game for both Viktoria Plzen and Lugano.

It was Lugano who won on Match Day 3 and another win in the Czech Republic would put them in a very strong position in the Group. It would also likely be too much for Viktoria Plzen to overcome and that puts some real pressure on the home team to find a result.

However they should be confident of doing that at home where they have won 3 of their last 4 European ties and especially with the experience that Viktoria Plzen have compared to Lugano. As strong a result as Lugano did earn against Viktoria Plzen two weeks ago, they are not as strong on their travels and have lost heavily at Young Boys and Zurich already.

Viktoria Plzen might have to deal with some of the tension of knowing what a defeat would mean for them, but they have won 8 in a row at home in all competitions. That includes a couple of convincing wins in the Europa League and I will back them at odds against to record another here.

MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chelsea 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Besiktas @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sevilla - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet365 (2 Units)
Napoli-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Real Madrid Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.40 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Apollon + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lyon - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maccabi Tel Aviv @ 2.30 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Red Star Belgrade + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.78 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Athletic Bilbao - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lazio - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Viktoria Plzen - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2016 (November 1-3)

After a really solid September, October proved to be a really miserable month and one I am glad to see the back of. I didn't really have a lot of luck in October and it was summed up by Manchester United somehow failing to score at least three times against Burnley, although the fan in me would have settled for a deflected 1-0 win after seeing the form Tom Heaton was in.

It has left United off the pace being set by the top teams in the Premier League and has already dented the 20 points from 24 available that I had targeted prior to the Burnley game. Of course that can still be achieved, but it might need a win at somewhere like Goodison Park to get back on track.

Winning games is all that matters to Manchester United right now, but they can put the Premier League to the back of the mind for a few days and try to continue the strong form shown in the Cup competitions. Manchester United have won 4 Cup games in a row since losing at Feyenoord and extending that sequence could see them through to the Europa League Last 32 by the end of the month.

Match Day 4 of the European competitions take centre stage over the first three days of November and this can be a pivotal round of games as teams begin to separate in the Groups. Most of the English teams would love to secure qualification to the next Round without the hassle of needing a result on Match Day 6 which is played in December as the heavy festive period gets going.

That should mean teams are focused on the two rounds of games in November to try and book their places into European competition and then turn attention away from the competitions until February. However that looks a tough task for the likes of Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton who either suffered setbacks on Match Day 3 or are in Groups which simply won't be decided easily.

I am looking for a really positive start to November to erase the memories of October and get this season moving back in the right direction and hopefully the little bit of luck every pick requires is on my side.


Besiktas v Napoli Pick: There are some issues in Turkey that means fans are going to have to be doubly careful when they visit Istanbul this week as Napoli and Manchester United both play here in the coming days. Hopefully we don't hear of any unsavoury incidents and everyone gets home safely after watching their football teams in action.

This game is going to be played a couple of hours before the rest of the Champions League schedule on Tuesday and this is a huge game for both Besiktas and Napoli with the top three teams in this Group separated by two points. That is thanks to Besiktas leaving Naples with a 2-3 win two weeks ago after it looked like the Italian team would not only be going through to the Second Round, but were in a strong position to win the Group.

Napoli are still capable of doing that, but that home defeat has complicated matters with away games at Besiktas and Benfica to come. Two losses might mean the Europa League is the best Napoli can hope for and the game here is going to be a tough test for the side who were beaten at Juventus on Saturday thanks to former striker Gonzalo Higuain.

That does mean only 1 win from the last 4 away games in all competitions since beating Dynamo Kiev 1-2 on Match Day 1, but goals haven't been the problem. It is Napoli's defensive issues that have prevented the side from really finding some consistency and it won't be getting easier when visiting Besiktas who have scored twice in 5 of their 6 home games this season.

The exception did come in the Champions League in a 1-1 home draw with Dynamo Kiev, but this looks a game that is going to produce attacking football and chances at both ends of the field. If the teams are as clinical in front of goal as they were in Naples, we should see at least three goals shared out in the early game and that is going to be my pick.


Borussia Monchengladbach v Celtic Pick: The 0-2 home loss to Borussia Monchengladbach on Match Day 3 has left Celtic in a precarious position in the Group even when it comes to potentially falling into the Europa League Knock Out Stage. Another defeat on Tuesday will effectively finish off Celtic's chances barring an couple of upsets over Manchester City and Barcelona and earning a win here is a big task when you consider their away form in European football.

Celtic have not won any of their last 9 away games in Europe and they have lost 3 of their 4 away games in the Champions League this season. That includes a 1-0 loss at Lincoln Red Imps and a 2-0 defeat at Hapoel Be'er Sheva and has to be a concern for Brendan Rodgers when you think how effective Borussia Monchengladbach have been defensively at home.

Borussia Monchengladbach have kept 3 clean sheets in a row at home, but goals have been more of a problem for them. They are missing some serious attacking talent which is a concern, but I do think they are going to be a little too good for a poor travelling Celtic team.

However they do look short in the outright market and instead it might make sense to focus on how Borussia Monchengladbach may win this game. I considered backing them to cover the Asian Handicap, but a lack of goals is a concern so instead I have been tempted in by the huge price on Borussia Monchengladbach to win this game with a clean sheet.

They haven't kept too many clean sheets at home in the Champions League, but recent form and Celtic's struggles for goals away from home makes this feel like a big price to me.


Ludogorets Razgrad v Arsenal Pick: There did look to be a clear difference in level of quality that Arsenal and Ludogorets Razgrad could call upon two weeks ago when they played in North London, but I am expecting the game in Bulgaria to be much more competitive. You have to think Ludogorets Razgrad are going to come out with a point to prove and show they are better than the 6-0 defeat to Arsenal on Match Day 3 indicated.

Playing away from home in the Champions League is not an easy task and Arsenal have found that with 1 win from their last 5 away games in this competition. You shouldn't ignore that the majority of those games have come against sides that are significantly stronger than Ludogorets Razgrad, but Arsenal did lose 2-1 at Dinamo Zagreb in the Group Stage last season.

That is the kind of result that has become a feature of the way Arsenal have played in the month of November in recent seasons, but you have to think this current squad is playing at too high a level to be contained. They have been scoring goals for fun, even away from home, and Arsenal should have too much in the locker for Ludogorets Razgrad who conceded three times in quick succession in a 1-3 home loss to Paris Saint-Germain.

It is the feeling that Arsenal will create chances and score goals here which makes me think they are going to have too much for Ludogorets Razgrad. There is the North London derby coming up next Sunday, but Arsene Wenger will know his players have time to refresh for that one and I think he will play a strong line up.

Ludogorets Razgrad did only lose by a single goal margin to Real Madrid at home a couple of seasons ago, but I believe Arsenal will match the Paris Saint-Germain margin of victory here and I will back them on the Asian Handicap.


Manchester City v Barcelona Pick: I was really hoping that the Barcelona 4-0 win over Manchester City coupled with the huge name they bring to England would have seen the layers have the home team as a big underdog in this one. Instead it looks like the layers might have looked back at the result and performance from Manchester City at the Nou Camp and been able to separate those two elements in the same way as I have.

Barring two of the most ridiculous errors you are going to see, Manchester City very much held their own against Barcelona and had plenty of chances to score in that game. A mistake made it 1-0 to the home team and Manchester City never really had much of a hope when reduced to ten men thanks to Claudio Bravo's rush of blood to the head.

Up to that moment Manchester City looked dangerous going forward and I can't imagine Pep Guardiola is going to change that philosophy too much on Match Day 4. Perhaps he goes with Sergio Aguero up front rather than Kevin De Bruyne, but ultimately I think Manchester City can create chances against a Barcelona team who have recently conceded twice at Celta Vigo and Valencia.

The other side of the pitch is still going to bring problems for Manchester City though as Neymar, Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi can pressure mistakes out of a team that has made plenty of them at the back. Bravo is suspended while Vincent Kompany might not be risked and it points to MSN having their opportunities in this one too.

Barcelona have scored at least twice in their last 5 away games in all competitions, although it should be noted that they are not the best travellers in the Champions League and had to come from behind to beat Borussia Monchengladbach on Match Day 2.

I really believe City have a shot in this one if they are not missing the chances that came their way in Barcelona. They will need to score goals to beat this team and I think Guardiola will play an attacking line up to give his team a chance to do that, but I also believe Manchester City will conceded goals which puts me off backing them to win this game. Instead I can see a situation where both teams combine for an entertaining game that produces at least four goals overall and I will back that to happen.


PSV Eindhoven v Bayern Munich Pick: Over the last couple of seasons in the Champions League, PSV Eindhoven have proven to be a tough nut to crack, although this is the most attacking team they would have faced in that time. The goalless draw with Atletico Madrid last season and the 0-1 home defeat to them earlier in the Group would have shown PSV Eindhoven the difference in quality, but a team like Bayern Munich is not going to wear them down slowly like Atletico Madrid like to do.

Instead Bayern Munich will look to get forward and score goals and I think PSV Eindhoven will struggle to contain them, especially with more of an onus to get forward and attack. PSV Eindhoven did win all 3 games here in the Group last season, but none of those came against a team as strong as Bayern Munich and the reigning Dutch Champions have just been struggling for goals here all season.

That doesn't bode well against a Bayern Munich team who crushed Augsburg 1-3 away from home at the weekend and who have scored 15 goals in 6 games since the 1-0 loss at Atletico Madrid.

Winning the Group is the motivation for Bayern Munich to keep in touch with Atletico Madrid as well as improving their goal difference and I do think they will be too strong for PSV Eindhoven here. Bayern Munich have only won 2 of their last 11 away Champions League games, but both came in the Group Stage last season and this is a team that also scored twice at Juventus and Benfica on their travels last season.

Getting to at least two goals here might be enough for Bayern Munich to cover the Asian Handicap and I do think they can win with a little comfort on Tuesday to keep the pressure on Atletico Madrid at the top of the Group.


Monaco v CSKA Moscow Pick: This Group looks like one that could potentially come down to Match Day 6 before we know who will make it through to the Second Round. All four teams look evenly matched and that makes these home games very important for every team in the Group.

Monaco will be pleased with four points from six away from home, but they will need to win their remaining two home games if they have serious ambitions of making it through the Group. This one is particularly important against an out of form CSKA Moscow who have lost their last 4 away games in all competitions and have struggled for clean sheets in the Champions League.

With Monaco having won 7 of their last 9 games at home in all competitions, you can see why the layers have them down as an odds on favourite. Monaco had won 4 in a row at home in the Champions League before being held to a 1-1 draw by Bayer Leverkusen and they have been scoring goals at home domestically.

The concern is taking that level into the Champions League and Monaco have only scored more than once in 1 of their last 6 home games in European football. That might not be enough against CSKA Moscow who have scored in 10 of their last 14 away games in the Champions League, but I think Monaco are capable of doing enough to win this game.

Two years ago they beat Zenit St Petersburg here in the Group Stage of the Champions League and I think Monaco can edge past CSKA Moscow this season to put themselves in a very strong position to qualify for the Last 16 on Match Day 5.


Porto v Club Brugge Pick: The late penalty scored by Porto in the 1-2 win at Club Brugge on Match Day 3 could be the pivotal moment for the Portuguese side who are trying to avoid exiting the Champions League in the Group Stage for a second season in a row. It does look like Leicester City might have pushed clear as the Group winner, but the win over Club Brugge has given Porto every chance of joining the English Champions with two of their remaining three games to be played at home.

I expect Porto to have too much for Club Brugge again on Match Day 4 and I do think the latter have struggled to cope with the step up in level. The 4-0 loss in Copenhagen really highlighted that and Club Brugge have not been in the greatest form domestically to suggest they can turn that around here.

Porto have been scoring plenty of goals at home in recent games although the concern is the drop in results at home in their most recent European games. It was a 0-2 home loss to Dynamo Kiev which effectively cost Porto a place in the Second Round of the Champions League last season, but they have beaten the likes of Chelsea and Bayern Munich here over the last couple of years so should have enough to see off Club Brugge.

With the goals being scored domestically, I will look for Porto to come through with a win by a couple of goals at least with goal difference perhaps going to be a huge part of which teams get through out of this Group.


Sevilla v Dinamo Zagreb Pick: The Champions League Group Stage can produce some really huge games like Manchester City facing Barcelona, but there are a few mismatches in this Round too. For Dinamo Zagreb it would be an achievement to simply avoid defeat against the likes of Juventus and Sevilla, but ultimately they don't feel any disgrace losing when you consider the level of quality that both clubs can call upon.

It isn't a big surprise that Dinamo Zagreb have particularly struggled away from home and that all but one of their away Group defeats have come by at least two goals. This is a team that is used to bossing things domestically so suddenly asking them to defend in numbers is not something the players are used to or able to do for a long enough period to keep teams from eventually wearing them down.

I do think Sevilla can match those margins of victory here even if they have relied on a strong defence for their points in the Group rather than any free-scoring methods. Goals have been tough for them since the 6-4 win over Espanyol to open the Spanish season, but I do think Sevilla can score at least twice which may be enough for a comfortable win on the night.

An early goal for Sevilla will force their guests to perhaps open up a little bit and I am going to back Sevilla to win by a two goal margin, at least, for the first time at home since the victory over Espanyol. That will keep them on track for a place in the Second Round which might be confirmed at the end of the evening if Juventus have also won at home when they play Lyon.


Tottenham Hotspur v Bayer Leverkusen Pick: All of a sudden Tottenham Hotspur have gone 5 games without a win in all competitions with 4 of those ending in draws. That has led to fans really looking for Harry Kane to return sooner rather than later after initial suggestions that Tottenham Hotspur could not only cope without him, but might actually be better without him.

Those suggestions won't be around now as Tottenham Hotspur have been struggling in front of goal with just 3 goals scored since the win over Manchester City and 2 of those have come thanks to penalties. They've created chances but Tottenham Hotspur have just faltered with the final shot, although some of their issues have come down to misfortune too with the woodwork or top goalkeeping saves preventing Tottenham Hotspur from kicking on.

Now they go back into the Champions League knowing they need to start winning games if they are going to extend their stay in the competition to the Knock Out Stage. A win at Wembley Stadium on Wednesday would send Tottenham Hotspur a long way towards going through to the Last 16 but they will have to do better than when going down to a surprising 1-2 loss against Monaco in this Stadium.

I am not sure being away from White Hart Lane is the right decision from a footballing standpoint, but financially it made enough sense for Tottenham Hotspur to do that. They will have to hope that Hugo Lloris can bring his form here because Bayer Leverkusen are going to test them again having seen the Frenchman make some outstanding second half saves to deny them the victory two weeks ago.

Bayer Leverkusen have not exactly been in the greatest of form themselves, but a 1-2 win over Wolfsburg at the weekend might give them some confidence to take into this game. While they have been scoring goals away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have been conceding them at an alarming rate too and I do think this time we will have goals after the goalless draw in Germany two weeks ago.

Both teams had a lot of really good chances in that game and should really have been better in front of goal and I will take those same opportunities coming up in this one. The draw does Tottenham Hotspur little good this time so they have to be a little more positive and my only concern is that Wembley Stadium hosted a NFL game on Sunday and I worry about the turf conditions.

The weather in London hasn't been too bad though so I expect a good playing surface on which we should see at least three goals shared out.


Fenerbahce v Manchester United Pick: The 4-1 win over Fenerbahce in the Europa League Group Stage has been a rare positive moment for Manchester United in recent weeks and the sky is falling in if you believe everything the media tells you. Manchester United have had a tough stretch of games and the draw at Liverpool and a win over Manchester City in the English Football League Cup are solid results.

I don't want to get too down about the goalless draw with Burnley because on another day Manchester United win 5-0 and Burnley feel fortunate to come away with that margin of defeat.

They do need a boost in confidence in front of goal and I expect Jose Mourinho to pick a strong team in this visit to Istanbul with the Europa League still an important competition for the manager. Getting into the top four of the Premier League will be a challenge, but Manchester United have another route back into the Champions League which some fans and members of the media seem to forget.

Instead of criticising the manager for giving the competition the respect it deserves, they should recognise that Manchester United can use the Europa League as a potential second route into the Champions League and should take it seriously.

Being in a tough Group also has played a part in Mourinho's thinking when it comes to starting teams picked and I can't imagine he changes tact here knowing a win could send Manchester United virtually through to the Last 32. That won't be easy against a Fenerbahce team that are far better at home than on their travels and who have won 6 of their last 7 home European games including the last 5 in a row.

Fenerbahce will recognise that Manchester United are not at full strength defensively with half the first choice back four not travelling to Istanbul. That should mean they try and get forward but I do feel there are gaps that Manchester United can expose at the other end of the field too, particularly if Fenerbahce defend as badly as they did at Old Trafford.

I am not sure I like Manchester United as a pretty strong favourite to win here considering Fenerbahce's home record, but instead am looking at the chance of seeing three goals or more at odds against. Both teams look like they will be stronger in attacking positions than defensively and goals have flowed in recent Manchester United away games outside of the trip to Anfield.

An early goal could really open this game up and I think we will see goals at both ends in a game that could be pivotal to deciding who qualifies for the Last 32.


Maccabi Tel-Aviv v AZ Alkmaar Pick: This was supposed to be a Group in which Maccabi Tel-Aviv and AZ Alkmaar would challenge one another to follow Zenit St Petersburg through to the Last 32 of the Europa League. However Dundalk have surprised both clubs to the point where the loser on Match Day 4 might be in too difficult a position to make it through to the next Round.

It should produce an attacking display from both teams and goals have certainly been flowing when Maccabi Tel-Aviv have played at home. 8 of the last 9 games Maccabi Tel-Aviv have played at home have featured at least three goals, while their last 6 here in the Europa League have also ended that way.

Goals have been more of an issue for AZ Alkmaar, but they have featured in high-scoring goals away from home in this competition with their last 8 on their travels ending with three or more goals shared out.

Neither team can settle for a draw and so I expect both to go on the front foot and that should produce an entertaining game.


Nice v Salzburg Pick: The Europa League does seem to be a competition that is respected much more on the continent than it is in England, and that has seen French leaders Nice play some relatively strong line ups in the Group. That hasn't paid out for them having lost their opening two Group games, but the win over Salzburg in Austria two weeks ago puts their destiny back in their own hands.

Nice can get through to the Last 32 if they can win their remaining three games and two of those will be played at home where they have won 4 in a row and scored at least twice in each of those wins.

They will feel they have the edge over Salzburg who have struggled in the Europa League after falling out of the Champions League and who might be more focused on domestic matters. Three losses means Salzburg are effectively out of the Europa League already and I think they might struggle to raise themselves for the remaining games in the Group.

Salzburg have lost half of their last 6 away games in European competition and Nice are expected to play a strong team to get back into position in the Group. With home advantage and goals flowing in the team, I think Nice can win this one at odds against.


PAOK v Qarabag Pick: This is a pivotal game in this Group for both PAOK and Qarabag as they chase the 2nd spot behind Fiorentina who look to be the pick of the teams in the Group. Both PAOK and Qarabag have earned 4 points so the winner is going to go a long way to securing a place in the Last 32 of the Europa League with two games to go.

The home advantage looks to be a key for PAOK and I think that will give them enough of an edge to win this. At first I was a little concerned with the fact that PAOK have won 1 of their last 6 home games in European football and that 3 of their last 5 games here in those games have ended in goalless.

However I think Qarabag have shown they have some difficulties on their travels and I am not sure they can keep PAOK from scoring. The home side have been very strong defensively so one goal might be all we need to see them claim the three points having conceded just 1 goal in their last 7 at home in all competitions.

Qarabag have perhaps found it a little difficult when travelling in Europe against the superior competition they face compared with at home. Their 2-0 win over PAOK two weeks ago should give them confidence, but PAOK have proven much stronger at home and I will back them to win this one.


Southampton v Inter Milan Pick: Two weeks ago Inter Milan beat Southampton 1-0 at the San Siro and that might have suggested a tight game, but instead it was one filled with chances and I am also unsure how Southampton lost that game. They could have been two or three goals up by half time alone and I expect a stronger Southampton line up to begin this one at home.

The layers have cottoned onto that with Southampton at a very short price, one you might not have expected to see against Inter Milan in recent seasons. That looks too short for me when you think Inter Milan had scored in 5 consecutive away games in all competitions before the 1-0 loss at Sampdoria which cost Frank de Boer his job as manager.

How Stefano Vecchi approaches this game and that uncertainty makes Inter Milan a dangerous team to back against, but those goals suggest they can give Southampton something to think about. On the other hand they have been poor defensively and The Saints only failed to score last weekend against Chelsea because of a poor linesman decision to rule out Charlie Austin's strike.

Goals can be a problem for Southampton but their pace in forward areas makes them dangerous for Inter Milan and I can see the home team having just enough to earn the three points. However it will need two goals with Inter Milan likely to be a threat in forward areas too and Southampton won't miss the chances again that they created two weeks ago.

At odds against backing at least three goals looks an attractive price.


Villarreal v Osmanlispor Pick: There is a tendency to struggle to know what kind of teams that managers will play in the Europa League but clubs from Spain tend to take the competition very seriously. That should still be the case for Villarreal who dropped into the Europa League and were set as one of the leading contenders to go on and win the trophy in May.

While they have not been able to really take a hold of this Group, Villarreal have two home games left in the section and a win on Thursday will put them in a commanding position to make it through to the Last 32.

With the home form as it is, Villarreal should be too strong for visitors Osmanlispor who blew a 2-0 home lead against them in Match Day 3 in a 2-2 draw.

The Turkish side have not been in great form of late with a 7 game run without a victory behind them. They have also been conceding too many goals away from home and that will likely be an issue against a Villarreal team that are comfortable going forward and looking to score goals.

I think Villarreal prove to be too good on the day and I think they will win with some room to spare. I will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap and move into a position to qualify for the Last 32 on Match Day 5.

MY PICKS: Besiktas-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Borussia Monchengladbach Win to Nil @ 2.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.08 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City-Barcelona Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 William Hill (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Monaco @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Porto - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.71 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Fenerbahce-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Maccabi Tel Aviv-AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nice @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
PAOK @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Southampton-Inter Milan Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Villarreal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)

October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 102-107-5, + 4.94 Units (396 Units Staked, + 1.25% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)