Euro 2020 Match Day 3 Group Picks 2021 (June 20th-23rd)

There may be four third place finishers making it through to the Last 16 of the Euro 2020 Finals, but it is still surprising to see that twenty-three of the twenty-four teams taking part still having an opportunity to make it through.

Only North Macedonia have officially been eliminated and only the Netherlands have guaranteed themselves as Group Winners.

With that in mind, the final round of Group games should have plenty on the line for all of the teams involved and there should be plenty of twists and turns to come. Things will clear up by Monday evening when three Groups are completed, but teams are still jockeying for position and there are some good looking matches to come.

Sunday 20th June

Italy vs Wales Pick: Two wins from two Group games will have won the section for many teams, but Italy still have a bit of work to do to make sure they leave Rome as Group A Winners.

Avoiding defeat will be good enough to do that and it may be a result that suits both Italy and their opponents Wales who have almost certainly secured 2nd place in the Group.

Roberto Mancini could make some changes to give some of the other squad members an opportunity, but the manager would also like to keep the momentum behind his team and I would not be surprised if the Italians put another win on the board.

Wales have played well in the tournament and the pace on the counter attack will worry an Italian team that can lack some legs at the back. However, Robert Page and his men may feel the best approach is to contain their hosts and avoid a big defeat which should be good enough for 2nd place as long as Switzerland don't batter Turkey in the other game in the Group.

The edge is with Wales though and they have put in a lot of work to secure their place in the Last 16 in all likelihood.

They do pose a threat on the break and the likes of Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey are playing well, but I think Italy may just have enough to break them down and secure a narrow win. Another clean sheet would not be a massive surprise and I would not be massively surprised if both teams slow down towards the end of this fixture with Knock Out matches to come later in the week.

Turkey vs Switzerland Pick: After failing to win any of the four Group games these two nations have combined to play for, the situation means both Turkey and Switzerland are in a precarious position in the tournament.

They meet in Baku on Sunday and both teams need to win the game and hope that is good enough to take them through to the next Round.

Turkey are under more pressure having lost both Group games and a win may not be enough considering the awful goal difference- they don't just need to win, but likely need to win big and that means an attacking approach has to be taken to this fixture.

They have created chances, but Turkey have been poor in the final third and they need to show better composure if they are going to have any chance of Qualifying.

Switzerland have things much simpler- if they win they move onto four points and that should be enough to take them through. They were decent against Wales and deserved more than a point, but Switzerland were awful in Rome and the travel back to Baku does not favour them at all.

I do think they will cause Turkey problems considering what we have seen defensively from the Turks, but this could develop into an open game and especially if Turkey score first. Goals have been an issue for both of these teams in this tournament, but this should be a more open encounter and I think at least three goals will be shared out.

Monday 21st June

North Macedonia vs Netherlands Pick: Beating both Ukraine and Austria and scoring five goals has given the Netherlands fans hopes of a very strong Finals to come. They have already won Group C and so should be rewarded with a good looking Last 16 match and the draw could easily open up for the Netherlands with the way the opening fixtures have gone.

Having secured all they have wanted, Frank de Boer could easily make changes to his team, but there is almost a full week before Holland will play again and so he won't want to lose some of the momentum that has been earned.

They could really go into the Last 16 with a heap of momentum as the Netherlands take on eliminated North Macedonia.

The latter have shown they came through the weakest of the Play Off paths into the Euro Finals and they have looked markedly weaker than both Ukraine and Austria and now face the best team in the section. North Macedonia have nothing to lose so they could be dangerous, but defensively they have looked off the pace and teams have created plenty of chances against them.

I do think the Netherlands will be found out later in the tournament, especially as their attack and defence look a little light, but for now they should be comfortable and I think they win this game pretty comfortably.

Momentum can be so important to teams and the Netherlands can go into the Last 16 with three wins behind them. I don't think there will be wholesale changes, although a few of the squad could be given an opportunity, and I think the depth will be enough to see off North Macedonia by a couple of goals on the day.

Ukraine vs Austria Pick: A point would likely be good enough to take both Ukraine and Austria through to the Last 16.

The layers clearly believe the two teams are more than aware of that being the potential outcome of this fixture and the draw is actually trading at odds on.

You can't really argue with the theory and I do think there will be a temptation for both of these teams to not take too many risks.

It is not often you see the draw at the prices they are for this one, but I think it is a risky play. Instead, a small interest on there being 'no goalscorer' might be the best approach as you can see both Ukraine and Austria perhaps easing off if this game is level with half an hour left, but also covers the chance of an own goal breaking the deadlock.

There might not be a lot of reason for either team to commit to attack in this one and both may shake hands on finishing 2nd and 3rd and moving through to a Last 16 tie over the next weekend.

Finland vs Belgium Pick: Only one team has managed to come from behind and win a game at Euro 2020 and Belgium's win over Denmark has taken them through to the Last 16. Avoiding defeat will be enough to take them through as Group Winners, but Roberto Martinez likes his Belgium team to play with attacking intent and even with some changes I do think they will be too good for this opponent.

They should give the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard more minutes to try and get those key players up to speed before the Knock Out Rounds begin, and Belgium have shown they have some depth when crushing Belarus 8-0 in a World Cup Qualifier in March.

Roberto Martinez is taking his team back to St Petersburg and the travel is an issue, but Belgium have momentum and five goals in two Group games has given them a boost.

They will be facing a Finland team who likely still need a point to take them through to the Last 16.

Finland work hard and will give it a go, but they are not the best defensively and you do have to worry about them if they go chasing this game. That has to be a fear for the Finnish, although a narrow defeat may not prevent them going through to the Last 16 depending what happens in the other game.

Even with that in mind, it will be difficult to contain this Belgium team despite the likelihood of one or two changes to be made to freshen up the starting line up.

A comfortable win for one of the favourites looks the most likely outcome of this final Group game.

Russia vs Denmark Pick: The Christian Eriksen incident has seriously hurt the Denmark chances at this Euro 2020, but there is still an outside chance they can work their way through to the Last 16.

Two defeats have been costly for other teams around the tournament, but Denmark are in a weak section and a win by a couple of goals may see them through as 2nd place as long as Finland are not able to avoid defeat against Belgium.

One of the stronger third place finishes will also be within Denmark's grasp with a big win and they have played well enough to earn more than what they have in this Group so far. This is a team that has been creating chances and they will believe home advantage could be the key in this final Group game against a Russia team that has been a mixed bag.

Despite playing both games at home previously, Russia still need a positive result to earn their place in the next Round and a defeat would likely see them exiting the tournament. That puts some pressure on them and travelling has usually been a weakness for this team.

It could be a fairly open game with both teams chasing the points and I think there will be goals involved.

However, I think Denmark have been very unfortunate in this tournament so far and they may just find one big performance which helps them past this opponent and give them every chance to Qualify for the Last 16. Some eyes and ears will be looking at the game at St Petersburg, but Denmark have to focus on themselves and that means winning this game.

I think they can do that.

Tuesday 22nd June

Croatia vs Scotland Pick: The situation could not be clearer for Croatia and Scotland when they meet in the final Group games on Tuesday evening- both have a single point from the two games played so far and a draw would likely mean both are going to be exiting the Euro 2020 Finals.

A win or bust frame of mind should mean an open fixture develops at some point and the big question for both managers is whether their teams have enough goals to find a victory.

Scotland have yet to score at Euro 2020, but they have created some wonderful chances and poor finishing has really let them down. On another night they would have earned 6 points from their two games played, but Scotland's poor finishing has proved costly and they are under pressure to deliver.

Che Adams is a Premier League player with Southampton, but he has long been someone who has underperformed when it comes to conversion rates and Scotland are going to be under pressure to be much better in the final third. This Croatia team is experienced at the back, but they are an ageing team and Scotland should have enough to create chances against them.

Croatia have also struggled in legitimate away games and that has to be an encouragement for Scotland, although this is a nation that has historically found a way to find a glorious defeat from strong positions.

Teams have created chances against Scotland and I do think Croatia will be able to do that even if they are not as strong as they once were in the forward areas. They have to take risks and that means increasing the intensity of the performance, while an early goal could really open this fixture up completely.

1-1 means nothing to either team and I think that has to mean attacking players will be used and spaces could open up as this fixture hits the 70th minute mark and further along.

It is difficult to back these teams to be clinical in front of goal considering what we have seen from them in this tournament, but both Scotland and Croatia can create chances in front of goal. If a player or two can just show the composure needed, one of the teams may find the three points they need to progress and it could come from a relatively high-scoring fixture to round out what has been a low-scoring Group.

Czech Republic vs England Pick: When you plan out the draw before a tournament ball has been played it can be easy to get carried away by the possibilities and for many winning Group D would be a bad decision as it would mean facing either Germany/France/Portugal in the Second Round.

It is with that in mind that many felt finishing 2nd would be a better long-term plan for a team and I think that is influencing the odds for this fixture.

England can go through as 2nd place in the Group if they don't win this fixture and you can understand why some think playing out a draw would suit both teams. The Czech Republic's aims are to get through to the Knock Out Stage and that would guarantee they do that, while England would likely be pretty happy even if it means leaving Wembley Stadium until the Semi Final.

A weaker path helped England reach the World Cup Semi Final three years ago so this is something that would be in mind. Obviously it won't be mentioned by the management, but I also think Gareth Southgate needs a much better performance from his team than the one produced in the draw with Scotland.

It is hard to know what kind of desire England have- they are a big price if they were definitely going to play for the win, but you do wonder if that is going to be high on the agenda throughout this fixture.

What England have done of late is not give up too many goals and that may be underlined in this fixture. The Czech Republic have not exactly created a lot of chances in their opening two games and I think England can largely contain their threat, although England will have to be much better in the final third to break down a team that has overachieved defensively considering the chances they have allowed.

In usual circumstances England would look a massive price as I have said, but you can't really know for sure what they are thinking and whether playing for 2nd is the best bet for them.

In all likelihood a point suits both teams and I would not be surprised if one of the teams fails to find the net in what could be a potentially another uninspiring fixture in this Group.

Wednesday 23rd June

Slovakia vs Spain Pick: One of the big disappointments at the Euro 2020 Finals so far has to be Spain, although this is a team that has just lacked a clinical touch rather than totally underachieving.

Unfortunately it is a big part of football to find a way to convert chances into goals and Luis Enrique may make more changes in a bid to lift his team. A missed Penalty against Poland means Spain are almost certainly going to need to win this game to have any chance of making it through to the Last 16.

Draws with Sweden and Poland have come about through poor finishing, but Spain do finish up with the weakest team in the section.

Slovakia have three points on the board and another may be good enough to take them through to the Last 16, but they have not really been as strong as they would have liked. A lack of goals was a concern before the Finals began and Slovakia have created very little so far, which should be encouraging for the Spain fans that have been vocal in their disgust with the results so far.

Defensively Spain have not been at their best and I do think that will encourage their visitors, but I do think Spain will have the edge in the match. A narrow defeat for Slovakia may not be the worst result when the entire Group Stage shakes out, but that may be the best they can hope for against a Spain team that are surely going to punish someone soon.

Sweden vs Poland Pick: The layers have placed Poland as the favourites for this final Group game because they 'need' to win, but I think that offers up an opportunity to oppose them here.

The draw with Spain was a positive result, but Slovakia's win over Poland has put them in a difficult spot and a draw is likely going to mean elimination. They will have to take risks and Poland have a player in Robert Lewandowski that has proven himself a lethal finisher in the top European Leagues, but you can't discount the motivation that Sweden may have.

A defeat coupled with a Spain win would mean Sweden are going to be hoping to be one of the best third place finishers and that would also mean a very difficult Last 16 tie. However, a win and they can top the Group which means facing a third place team in the next Round and that would present Sweden a real chance to reach the Quarter Final of back to back major international tournaments.

The Swedes defend well enough to frustrate Poland and I do think they have some pace and quality in the final third which could see them find a way to secure a positive result. If Poland begin to chase, who would discount a Swedish counter attack to win the Group and I certainly think they are being disrespected as the slight underdog in this match.

Sweden have arguably looked better than Poland in the tournament with a solid base from which they can build. That is superior to Poland who do give up chances and have conceded three goals in two Group games and I think Sweden may be the surprising Group E Winners.

A draw would likely mean things coming down to goal difference assuming Spain finally get things right, but Sweden should be motivated to try and win this game and the Group. With an opponent that may have to take risks in front of them, much could come down to how effective Sweden are on the counter attack late in the game and I think they will find a way to the victory when all is said and done.

Germany vs Hungary Pick: The situation will be very clear to all of the teams in Group F by the time they kick off the final Group fixtures at Euro 2020 on Wednesday evening, but you do have to feel the permutations are more likely to affect the other fixture in the Group.

Both Germany and Hungary are much clearer in their ambitions and that is namely a win should be good enough to take them through to the Last 16.

The media may have been sharpening their knives in Germany on Saturday as the national team fell 0-1 behind against Portugal and the fear of a repeat of the World Cup 2018 failure certainly came to the fore. However, Joachim Low's team feel they are being underestimated and turned on the style in thumping the European Champions 4-2 and earn some vital momentum to take towards the Group Stage.

With France failing to win in Budapest, Germany have every chance of topping this section and they will be targeting one more win in Munich.

Germany have been a hard team to get a read on since the World Cup with inconsistent results and poor defensive performances holding them back. However, some of the younger players have provided an attacking spark and Germany have been scoring goals for fun and especially in home games which makes them very dangerous.

They created a lot of chances against Portugal and were in some promising positions against France which bodes well now they take on the weakest team in the Group.

Hungary showed resiliency in their 1-1 draw with France, but they have given up huge chances in both games played in the Group and those came in Budapest. Now they have to travel to Munich and I do think Hungary will struggle to contain their hosts and eventually will have to take risks to try and earn the positive result they need to have an opportunity to play in the Knock Out Rounds.

That could leave them exposed to a Germany team that does like to get forward and score goals and I think they can sign off at Munich with a big Group Stage win.

It wouldn't be that surprising if Hungary can cause problems of their own against a vulnerable German defence, but I don't think they will be able to contain their hosts. An early goal could really set Germany on their way in this one and I think they can cover what is perhaps the biggest Asian Handicap of the tournament so far.

Portugal vs France Pick: I am writing this out on Monday but the situation for both Portugal and France will be much clearer by the time this match kicks off on Wednesday evening.

While Portugal are not going to have a guaranteed place in the Last 16 of the Euro 2020 Tournament by then, they will know how many more points they need.

Assuming Hungary will not win in Munich, 3 points could be enough for Portugal if two of the following situations comes true: Finland lose to Belgium, Croatia and Scotland draw or Poland fail to beat Sweden.

Even then it would come down to goal difference if Portugal were to lose to France on Wednesday, but they have a positive one now and a narrow defeat may not prevent passage through to the Last 16.

It clouds the approach Portugal may take, although they will finish in the top two of the Group if they can win this game. The World Champions also have plenty of motivation knowing a win will top the section, and with the knowledge that a defeat may force France to need one of the best third place finisher spots and a potentially very difficult Last 16 tie.

The permutations can drive you mad at times, but the feeling is that both of these teams will not want to give too much away. Those permutations will be very clear by kick off, but the two Nations League meetings suggest this will be another tight fixture and I do think goals will be tough to find.

Portugal have looked good going forward, but the 4-2 loss to Germany may have spooked a manager who is more cautious than cavalier, while France have struggled to put a finishing touch to some of their football. Defensively the World Champions have looked pretty solid, and I do think you have to factor in that there have been two goals scored in the last 4 between these nations in normal time.

Backing one of the teams to fail to score is my suggestion, but I do think you should keep a real eye on how the other results are going. It could mean this fixture could potentially open up if news filters through that a team needs to chase a result, but it feels the pressure is all on the Portuguese before kick off regardless.

They showed how vulnerable they can be to the counter attack against Germany and this France team is more than capable of blowing past opponents. However, I think this is a fixture in which the two managers will be looking to set up to prevent the other team from picking up some steam and so it may be one where there is very little between them.

MY PICKS: Italy Win to Nil @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Turkey-Switzerland Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Netherlands - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ukraine-Austria No Goalscorer @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Belgium - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)

Denmark to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)

Croatia-Scotland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Czech Republic-England Both Teams to Score- NO @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Spain Win to Nil @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Sweden 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)

Germany - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)

Portugal-France Both Teams to Score- NO @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Match Day 2: 5-7, - 3.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 14.75% Yield)

Match Day 1: 7-5, + 3.10 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12.92% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (October 23-25)

There is still one more international break to come between now and March, but this is a big month for teams in the Champions League and Europa League as they play a pivotal two games that begin to separate those teams chasing Knock Out spots and those who may be heading out of either competition.

Of course the third place team in the Champions League Group Stage will drop down into the Europa League, but that is not the ambition of the clubs in that competition.

All of the English clubs have work to do in the Champions League with none of the four teams involved earning more than four points from their first two Group games. Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur have double headers against the weakest team in their Group so will be expected to get their Champions League back on track after losing three of the four games they have played combined.

Manchester City will be confident of securing at least four points against Shakhtar Donetsk which will erase the disappointment of losing to Lyon on Match Day 1. Anything less and there will be a lot of work to do for a team whose own manager doesn't believe are ready to win the Champions League, although I do think Pep Guardiola is trying to deflect the pressure from his players.

Their cross town rivals Manchester United have the toughest of the double headers for the English clubs as they face Italian Champions Juventus twice. There is pressure on United having failed to beat Valencia at home on Match Day 2 and anything less than two points over the next two weeks may not be good enough for Manchester United in what has been a tough campaign so far.

The Europa League has bee much more comfortable for the English teams as both Arsenal and Chelsea have won their opening two Group games. Both clubs will be looking to secure their passage through to the Last 32 of the Europa League before the next international break which will give their managers plenty of opportunity to keep players fresh for the hectic period that comes immediately out of the November international break through to the New Year.

Rangers and Celtic are also involved in the Europa League Group Stage and both teams will feel they can get out of their difficult Groups after securing at least three points each from the first two games. Rangers look in the stronger position with four points secured and with a home game to come this week, but things can change quickly.

I have written a short piece about Manchester United which was posted before the positive performance at Stamford Bridge. You can read that here.

AEK Athens v Bayern Munich Pick: It can be hard to back a team like Bayern Munich who have been going through a relative crisis, especially when you know the layers are not going to give anything away with them.

No matter the form Bayern Munich are going to be favoured in almost every game they play and that can see some poor value being placed on them.

I am not sure that is the case in this Champions League tie though with Bayern Munich looking considerably stronger than AEK Athens who have conceded three goals in losing to both Ajax and Benfica. The 2-3 home loss to Benfica came in a game where their visitors had been reduced to ten men for the entirety of the second half and yet AEK Athens came up short.

And for all the negatives around Bayern Munich it should be remembered that they have won 5 of their last 6 on their travels in all competitions this season. Bayern Munich won 0-2 at Benfica on Match Day 1 and that result has seen them win 5 of their last 6 away games in the Champions League and the side have scored at least twice in each of those wins.

Injuries are affecting the possibility of squad rotation for Bayern Munich who are an ageing team, but they should still be far too good for AEK Athens.

This is a big handicap for Bayern Munich to cover considering the poor recent run they had been on before beating Wolfsburg at the weekend. However I also think AEK Athens are considerably weaker than the usual level of opponent they will come up against and I will back the German Champions to put themselves in a very strong position in this Champions League Group with a big win.

Manchester United v Juventus Pick: This really does feel like the biggest European night at Old Trafford since Manchester United faced Bayern Munich in the Champions League Quarter Final in April 2018. There has been a Europa League Semi Final played at Old Trafford since that Quarter Final, but the big European nights involve the big names and Manchester United versus Juventus does bring back memories of past momentous occasions.

It is almost twenty years since Manchester United beat Juventus on their way to the Treble, but the clubs look to be in different spots these days. While Manchester United are scrambling to get back amongst the elite of European Football, Juventus are one of the favourites to win the Champions League.

Signing Cristiano Ronaldo shows the ambition of Juventus and he will return to Old Trafford for only the second time as an opposition player since leaving Manchester United in 2009.

Ronaldo will form the main danger for Juventus, but there are plenty of other threats carried by the Italian Champions who are favoured to win at Old Trafford. Juventus have scored at least twice in 4 straight away Champions League games and they have managed to do the same in 5 of their last 6 away games in all competitions in the 2018/19 season.

The struggles Manchester United have had defensively is a real concern in this fixture, but Jose Mourinho will be more encouraged by the attacking threat Manchester United have posed in their last couple of games. That includes at Stamford Bridge on Saturday and I do think Manchester United will cause problems for an ageing Juventus defence.

Both teams could play their part in this one and I do think the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing goals in this game on Match Day 3 of the Champions League.

I think Manchester United are better going forward than defending and Juventus have been scoring plenty of goals. The Juventus defence is still a daunting one to break down and they have kept 3 consecutive away clean sheets, but Manchester United should always pose a threat at home and the pace in the forward line should be a concern for Juventus to deal with.

Manchester United as a home underdog is appealing, but Juventus' superb recent away record in the Champions League has to be respected and backing at least three goals to be shared out is the call.

Roma v CSKA Moscow Pick: This Champions League Group has been blown open by CSKA Moscow's 1-0 win over Real Madrid on Match Day 2 which means the Russian side top the section with 4 points over the European Champions and Roma who both have 3 points on the board.

While it is still expected that Real Madrid will do enough to get out of the Group beginning with a couple of wins over Viktoria Plzen, both Roma and CSKA Moscow now get into a big double header against one another.

The team who take the most points over the next couple of weeks are likely going to join Real Madrid in the Last 16 and there is some pressure on Roma considering CSKA Moscow got 'bonus' points with the win over Real Madrid.

The 0-2 home loss to SPAL would have hurt Roma, but they can bounce back this week with their strong home record in the Champions League over the last fifteen months not to be underestimated. Of course CSKA Moscow need to be respected considering their own strong run of away results in Europe, but they were 2-0 down at Viktoria Plzen on Match Day 1 and Roma are a much better side than the Czech team.

Roma do score plenty of goals at home usually and so I won't worry too much about the result against SPAL this past weekend. They should be able to dictate the play in this one and CSKA Moscow will have to ride their luck a little bit if they are going to get a result here.

I backed Roma on Match Day 2 in their home game with Viktoria Plzen and I will go back to the same market here. They have scored enough goals to think they can cover the Asian Handicap against a CSKA Moscow team who were beaten 4-1 at Arsenal in the Europa League a few months ago.

Club Brugge v Monaco Pick: Two clubs who have lost both Champions League games played so far this season will be meeting in this early kick off on Match Day 3 and it does feel they are already competing for third place and a spot in the Europa League.

Thierry Henry will be taking charge of his first match in the Champions League and only his second in charge of Monaco on Wednesday. He has plenty of work to do with a Monaco team who have lost confidence and look like they are very vulnerable at the back.

The first task for Henry is to make the players believe in their ability again, but Monaco might already be considering the importance of domestic matters over European commitments. It could be something that is more obvious in the weeks ahead, but for now Henry has to be looking for any kind of win to give the Monaco players a shot in the arm.

It won't be easy to achieve in Brugge against the Belgian Champions who have been competitive in their two losses in the Champions League. There is a difference in level of quality which has to be bridged, but Club Brugge should be playing with more confidence than their visitors even if their own recent results have not been as good as expected.

Club Brugge do have a poor record in the Champions League which can't be ignored, but they have a team that can get forward and cause problems. Against this Monaco defence I would expect the home team to create chances and score goals, but their own defence should be challenged by a Monaco team who have scored in their last couple of games.

The absence of Radamel Falcao hurts Monaco, but I think both teams can contribute to an attacking game of football and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the way to go.

PSV Eindhoven v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both PSV Eindhoven and Tottenham Hotspur have lost both Champions League Group Stage games played this season and there is little doubt that they will be chasing two wins from this double header.

Anything less would put both teams in a very difficult position to make the Last 16 of the Champions League and I think there will be regrets at both clubs.

They have both been beaten 2-1 by Inter Milan, but both PSV Eindhoven and Tottenham Hotspur took the lead against the Italian club. At least Tottenham Hotspur can point to the fact they have to host Inter Milan as they look to get back on track in the Champions League, but that will all be for nought if they can't beat PSV twice.

It won't be easy to win in the Netherlands as PSV Eindhoven will be playing with the confidence that comes from having won all nine Dutch League games. There is a big step up to the Champions League, but Ajax have shown it can be bridged and Tottenham Hotspur are not in dominant form at the moment.

At least there are some key players back for Tottenham Hotspur with both Hugo Lloris and Christian Eriksen set to play in this one after the 0-1 win over West Ham United at the weekend. Spurs could thank Lloris for that victory and they will need their goalkeeper to be at his best in this one as they look for a vital win on the road.

PSV Eindhoven will be a threat going forward, but I am not convinced about them defensively and Tottenham Hotspur should be good enough to expose those vulnerabilities.

The first goal should be critical in this fixture even if both teams have blown leads in the Champions League already this season. Tottenham Hotspur have scored enough away goals in the competition to deserve favouritism and I do think they can win here as they should have done in Milan on Match Day 1.

At odds against Tottenham Hotspur can be chanced to secure a vital three points in Eindhoven.

Liverpool v Crvena Zvezda Pick: There have been reports that a high Ranking official at Crvena Zvezda placed a huge bet on his team losing by exactly five goals at Paris Saint-Germain which is being investigated at the moment.

That investigation will play out, but I am not of the belief that something fishy went on in that game as Paris Saint-Germain were just a lot stronger than Crvena Zvezda.

Some will say it would look that way if their visitors were not trying, but the little I saw that day didn't suggest a team wasn't giving it their all, but simply Crvena Zvezda were being outclassed in a game they were expected to struggle in.

That could be the case again on Wednesday as they face a Liverpool team that look like they are not far away from really hammering someone. The 0-1 win at Huddersfield Town was a close one for Liverpool, but they had chances to seal that game emphatically if producing better in the final third.

With both Roberto Firmino and potentially Sadio Mane back in the starting line up Liverpool could more clinical with the chances that come their way. Last season Liverpool destroyed Spartak Moscow at home and they also recorded a comfortable win over Maribor in the Group Stage, although this Asian Handicap is a big one to cover.

It's that much bigger when you think of Liverpool's recent struggles in front of goal over the last month, but the quality of opponent has to be factored in. Take away Huddersfield Town and Liverpool have faced teams of a much higher level than Crvena Zvezda during their poor run of form and it is no surprise they haven't blown away the likes of Chelsea, Napoli and Manchester City.

Crvena Zvezda will try and frustrate Liverpool as long as possible, but I am not sure they will be able to contain their hosts. If they concede inside the first 20 minutes it could be a very long day for the Serbian Champions and I will back Liverpool to win this one big.

Paris Saint-Germain v Napoli Pick: With Liverpool expected to move onto 9 points after their double header with Crvena Zvezda over the next couple of weeks, the pressure is on Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli.

They go into their double header with 3 points and 4 points respectively and these two matches could be key in determining who is able to move through to the Champions League Second Round. If one of these teams are able to win both games on Match Day 3 and 4 I would expect them to move through to the Last 16 and leave the losing team needing a lot of help.

One win each would likely keep them in touch with Liverpool but I don't think either manager is going to settle for that in what should be two very good games to watch.

Home advantage is going to be very important in both Group games and it is Paris Saint-Germain who have that edge on Match Day 3. This is a team who have scored at least three goals in 6 of their last 8 home Champions League games and Paris Saint-Germain have had some big wins over elite teams like Barcelona and Carlo Ancelotti's Bayern Munich.

That match fourteen months ago turned out to be the last one Ancelotti managed Bayern Munich so he will be looking for revenge. However his Napoli team have regularly found themselves coming up short in away games in Europe and I expect that to be the case on Wednesday when the visit the French capital.

It is rare to see Napoli beaten easily though and all 3 away Group defeats last season came by the same 2-1 scoreline. Earlier this season Napoli were beaten 3-1 at Juventus though and this Paris Saint-Germain team can be frightening going forward when they are at their best.

In 2018/19 they have tended to be at their best at home and I think Paris Saint-Germain win this one while covering the Asian Handicap.


Leipzig v Celtic Pick: The last couple of years have seen Celtic negotiate the tough Champions League Qualifying Rounds to make it through to the Group Stage of that competition, but this year they are going to find it difficult to reach the Knock Out Rounds in the Europa League.

As soon as the draw was made it was clear Celtic were in for a real challenge to get out of a section containing Salzburg and Leipzig who both impressed in the Europa League Knock Out Rounds last season.

Celtic play with commitment and the tactics used by Brendan Rodgers means they will want to get on the front foot and cause problems for their hosts in this Group game. They have shown they can score goals even at the very best teams having done that in Paris against PSG last season and also leading at Salzburg in this Group.

However it is going to be very difficult to contain a team like Leipzig who have scored at least two goals in each of their last 4 home games and have unsurprisingly won 3 of those. Leipzig had also won 5 straight home games in Europe before losing 2-3 to Salzburg on Match Day 1 and this is a team with a lot more experience of playing in European competition compared with twelve months ago.

If you take away the Qualifying Rounds, Celtic have conceded three times in 4 of their last 5 European away games under Rodgers and that makes it tough to win games. I think Leipzig are going to prove to have too much firepower for the Scottish Champions in this fixture at home and I am going to back the Bundesliga club to cover the Asian Handicap.


Sporting v Arsenal Pick: The hard work may already have been done by Arsenal as they bid to make it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League, but Unai Emery will want to wrap up a spot as soon as possible. That could be important with a very busy fixture list in the Premier League to come and so getting additional rest for key players is what Arsenal will be looking for.

Winning games against Vorskla and Qarabag are decent enough results for Arsenal but a trip to Sporting was looking like the toughest test in the Group as soon as the draw was made.

The form shown by Arsenal has been impressive and has to be the main reason they are such a short price to win in the Portuguese capital. However this is a fixture coming at a difficult time for The Gunners and it would not be a big surprise if a number of key players are rested for the Premier League game against Crystal Palace which is played on Sunday.

That will make Sporting an appealing price, but I also think the home team are being underestimated in this one. They have won 14 of their last 16 home games in all competitions and Sporting have also won 5 of their last 7 home Europa League games including beating Atletico Madrid here in the Quarter Final last season.

Arsenal have been scoring plenty of goals which makes them dangerous, but I think this is a very tough game for them if they are resting some of their key players. A draw would likely be a result that Unai Emery would accept right now knowing a home win against Sporting in two weeks time will see them control the Group, but I also think Sporting can cause plenty of problems for their visitors too.

Backing the home team to avoid a defeat looks tempting enough here.


Zenit St Petersburg v Bordeaux Pick: In all of the European Groups being played this week it is clear that home form is going to be very important and determine which teams are going to make it through to the Knock Out Rounds and which could miss out.

Over recent years Zenit St Petersburg have really taken that to heart and they have been very good in front of their own fans.

On Thursday Zenit St Petersburg could move into a very strong position in this Group if they can see off Bordeaux, but you do have to consider how much stock the club are putting into the Europa League. After eleven games in the Russian Premier League Zenit St Petersburg are leading the table by 6 points and winning the title is clearly the biggest ambition they will have this season.

Zenit St Petersburg can put the Europa League to the back of their mind if they can take 4 points from Bordeaux over the next couple of weeks though and I think the players will know that.

They are facing a team who have lost both games in this Group, albeit narrowly, and who have not travelled well in Europe outside of the early Qualifying Rounds. Bordeaux have been inconsistent domestically and have lost 3 of their last 5 away games in all competitions including a 2-0 defeat at Montpellier last weekend.

This is a long journey for a team from Western Europe to be making and I think it will be a forlorn one for Bordeaux. The home price is not exactly going to get the pulse racing, but Zenit St Petersburg should be too strong for Bordeaux and can pick up the three points here.


Zurich v Leverkusen Pick: Both Zurich and Bayer Leverkusen have won their opening two Europa League Group games which has put them in a very strong position in this section before of a double header against one another.

They have done it in contrasting fashion with Zurich winning both games 1-0, while Leverkusen have scored at least three times in their wins.

I can see this one developing into an attacking game with neither team having much to lose. Zurich will look to be defensively resolute but they are facing a higher quality opponent who are going to get forward and try and score goals. That may mean Zurich have some opportunities on the counter attack in this one, but it will be difficult to contain Leverkusen too and so goals looks to be the order of the day.

This past weekend Zurich drew 3-3 at home with Young Boys so Bayer Leverkusen will believe they can score goals here and I do think they share out at least three on the night.


Besiktas v Genk Pick: With a Group containing all four teams locked on three points the double headers on Match Day 3 and Match Day 4 are going to be huge to begin separating the four teams.

That is certainly what Besiktas and Genk will feel with both teams looking to secure four points from the two games against each other to put themselves in a strong position in the section.

Home advantage should be a key factor in both of the games coming up over the next two weeks and this week it is Besiktas who have that edge.

I think that will be all important with Besiktas winning 8 of their last 11 home European games and I do think they will do enough to edge out a tough Genk outfit. Genk have to be respected having just a strong run of 20 wins from their last 23 games in all competitions, but they were beaten in Norway last time out against an out of form Sarpsborg team and this is a big step up against a club who reached the Last 16 of the Champions League a few months ago.

Backing the home team on the Asian Handicap looks the best play with half the stake returned in the event of a draw and that is down to the respect that is offered to Genk. 


Chelsea v BATE Borisov Pick: The Europa League has not always been a competition Maurizio Sarri has taken really seriously, but he has seen his Napoli team have some success in it. There is an increased expectation on him at Chelsea as he looks to restore the club to the Champions League and early team selections in this Group suggests the Italian is keen to keep a second avenue into the Champions League alive.

Back to back wins to open the Group Stage has put Chelsea in a very strong position to make it through to the Last 32. Maurizio Sarri will be keen to wrap up that place over the next two weeks which means he can really pick weakened teams for the final two games in the Group and keep key players rested for the busy festive period to come in the Premier League.

Chelsea have not been dominant winners in either game they have played as far as the scoreboard has been concerned, but they have missed a host of chances.

On Thursday it is a chance for players to stake their claim in Sarri's plans for the months ahead as he will look to rotate his squad. Those players have yet to really impress as the manager would have liked, but Chelsea could prove to be far too strong for BATE Borisov if they can take the chances they are creating.

BATE Borisov remain the best team coming out of Belarus but they have struggled to compete with the stronger teams they tend to face in the Champions League or Europa League. The 1-4 home loss to PAOK on Match Day 2 has underlined that point and over the last twelve months BATE Borisov have lost heavily at FC Koln, Arsenal and PSV Eindhoven in European away games.

This is a big handicap for Chelsea to cover when you think of the chances they have missed in their previous two Europa League games which have both ended 1-0 to The Blues. However BATE Borisov have conceded at least three goals in each of the four games mentioned above and lost all of those games by at least three goal margins.

Chelsea can become the latest to record a big win over BATE Borisov and I think they will be able to do that on Thursday at Stamford Bridge. Eden Hazard won't be available by all accounts, but that should not matter for Chelsea this weekend and I think they cover the big Asian Handicap.


Eintracht Frankfurt v Apollon Pick: When the draw was this Europa League Group was made you would have thought Marseille and Lazio, two teams who reached at least the Quarter Final of the competition last season, would have been leading the way through to the Last 32.

Instead it is Eintracht Frankfurt who have won both games against those much fancied sides and now have a double header against the outsiders in the Group, Apollon.

The Cypriot side need to be respected having come from 0-2 down to earn a draw with Marseille on Match Day 2, but that was played at home and it is a real challenge for them when they visit Frankfurt.

Eintracht Frankfurt are just outside the elite teams in the Bundesliga, but they have scored plenty of goals in recent weeks and that makes them dangerous. The last three home games have all ended in wins and Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 15 goals in those games with at least four scored in each one including in the 4-1 win over Lazio on Match Day 2.

There should be too much firepower for the home team again in this Europa League game and they will want to keep the momentum behind them having won 4 in a row in all competitions.

Apollon have lost 6 of their last 7 away Europa League games, although only two of those have come by two or more goals. However they needed an injury time goal to prevent that happening at Lazio on Match Day 1 and I think they struggle to contain their hosts here so backing Eintracht Frankfurt for a big win has to be the call.


Rangers v Spartak Moscow Pick: When the draw was made for the Europa League Group Stage it did look like a section in which Rangers would find it very difficult to move on to the Knock Out Rounds.

Steven Gerrard had already surpassed some expectations by taking Rangers through four Qualifying Rounds to make the Group, but the start made to the section will have the fans believing their European adventure is far from over.

Rangers have earned an important point in Spain against Villarreal and then came from behind to deservedly beat Rapid Vienna at Ibrox on Match Day 2. That means they come into this double header with Spartak Moscow on top of the Group and I do think they can continue the positive momentum with another win at home.

In recent games Rangers have been dominant at Ibrox Stadium with their last 5 wins coming during a period in which they have scored at least three goals in each victory. That is the kind of pressure that could crack Spartak Moscow, although the Russian club have a lot more experience in European Football in recent years compared with their hosts.

Spartak Moscow have underachieved in this Group so far and their continued struggles away from home in European competition cannot be ignored. Losing games at PAOK and Rapid Vienna should be a big disappointment for Spartak Moscow and they have won just 1 of their last 13 away European games.

One Russian club has already lost in this part of Glasgow and I think Rangers can win this fixture as long as they not distracted by the upcoming League Cup Semi Final to be played on Sunday. I don't think Steven Gerrard will be allowing that to happen and I do think Rangers current home form makes it hard to make a case against them continuing their positive run.

Of course their hosts are more experienced, but Spartak Moscow have conceded plenty of away goals in recent games and especially in European competition. Backing Rangers on the Asian Handicap will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw and I will back the home team in that market.

MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Manchester United-Juventus Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Roma - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Club Brugge-Monaco Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Liverpool - 3 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Paris Saint-Germain - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sporting + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Zurich-Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Besiktas - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rangers - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

October Update: 18-19-1, - 0.28 Units (74 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (October 17-19)

The middle two rounds of the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage can be pivotal in determining the teams that are going to make it through to the Last 16/Last 32 of the two competitions.

It is also a time when you can begin to work out those teams who are likely to win their Group and earn a 'better' draw for the Last 16 and those teams who are perhaps reaching a desperate stage.

At the moment it does feel like all of the English clubs that don't play on Merseyside are in a good position to make it through their Groups as both Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea have won their opening two Group games.

On the other hand Liverpool and Everton are yet to taste victory and both have important double headers in which they need to take at least four points if they are going to make it through to the Knock Out Rounds. Liverpool should be good enough to still come through their Group, but Everton are under pressure having dropped points at home against the weakest team in their section as Ronald Koeman's men continue to struggle at home and in Europe.


In a couple of days I will have a short post about the Manchester United game at Liverpool which seems to have divided opinions as to how Jose Mourinho approached things, and that will also cover the game in Lisbon against Benfica. Before that I have wrote about the strong start to the Manchster United season which can be read here.


The Weekend Premier League Picks started well but had a poor ending which was a disappointment. In the next Weekend Football Picks post I will have a full update with the season results which will include the results from the Champions League and Europa League Picks made this week. That post should be ready to go on Friday with the Premier League's opening fixture this weekend being played on Friday evening at the London Stadium.


Feyenoord v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: It looks like Manchester City are the team to beat in the Group, but for Feyenoord and Shakhtar Donetsk the double header they have over the next two weeks may give one of them a real chance to finish second in the Group. Both have been beaten by Manchester City already, but Shakhtar Donetsk have a home win over Napoli to their name and will be confident of adding to the points earned already when they take on the Dutch Champions.

They definitely performed better against Manchester City than Feyenoord did and Shakhtar Donetsk will be confident of their chances here in Rotterdam. It won't be easy when you think of how poorly Shakhtar Donetsk have played away from home in the Champions League, but last season they showed their capabilities on their travels in the Europa League.

A team like Feyenoord may be more suited to the Europa League level and they have been in poor form with just a single win from their last 4 games in all competitions. It hasn't been any better at home where Feyenoord have also won 1 of their last 4 games in all competitions and they have been beaten twice in that time and they have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 games in front of their own fans.

Shakhtar Donetsk may have lost 2-0 at Manchester City, but they created chances in that game while it was still goalless. They also had won 5 straight away games in European competition before that defeat, albeit in the Europa League rather than Champions League, but I think they can be good enough to earn the victory in Rotterdam.

At odds against they have to be worth backing to move into a good position in the Group with a home game against Feyenoord to come in two weeks time.


Manchester City v Napoli Pick: The Champions League has already had some big games this season in the Group Stage and this is yet another as the current leaders in England and Italy meet on Tuesday evening at the Etihad Stadium. It is Manchester City who have made the superior start in the Champions League compared with Napoli, but both teams are still expected to work their way through to the Last 16 and the double header could determine which finishes top of the Group.

You can't ignore the fact that for Napoli the domestic title challenge is more important than the Champions League this season, but this is a team with plenty of momentum behind them which has to be respected. Going back to last season they have won 16 of their last 17 competitive games and the sole defeat was a little unfortunate when Napoli were beaten at Shakhtar Donetsk on Match Day 1 in the Group.

This is a big challenge for Napoli though as they face a Manchester City team in a very similar period of form as the Italian club are. Manchester City have been very strong at home where they have won 8 of 11 Champions League games and they have won 9 in a row overall since the 1-1 draw with Everton.

Pep Guardiola called the 7-2 win over Stoke City as the best performance since he came in as manager of Manchester City and that has to be a little intimidating for Napoli. As good as Napoli are going forward, they can look a little suspect defensively and a team like Manchester City in their current form will look to expose that.

On the other hand Napoli should be able to cause some problems for Manchester City as other clubs have. The clean sheets might look like Manchester City are strong defensively, but clubs have created chances against them and Napoli are a team who have scored plenty of goals to think they will take those opportunities when they do come their way.

The layers are on top of that with both teams to score and at least three goals to be scored short prices. I am leaning towards Manchester City earning the win with home advantage but even those prices are plenty short when seeing how well Napoli have played and who are very capable on their day. Goals should be the outcome of the fixture and I think it is worth backing at least four goals to be shared out which has been the eventual result in 3 of the last 5 Champions League games at the Etihad Stadium.


Real Madrid v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There is a lot of confidence in the Tottenham Hotspur squad, but the next few weeks is going to be telling to see where they actually stand compared with the best teams both in England and Europe. In that time Tottenham Hotspur play Real Madrid twice, Liverpool and Manchester United, and Mauricio Pochettino says his team will head to the Santiago Bernebeu with a nothing to lose attitude.

Playing away from home in European competition has been difficult for Tottenham Hotspur who have lost at Monaco and Gent in their last couple of away games. Now they have to face the Champions League back to back winners and that is going to be a real test for the Tottenham Hotspur 7 game winning run away from home in all competitions.

Real Madrid look to be in much better shape than a few weeks ago and these two teams have dominated the Group so far. The winner of the double header will be in command of a top spot finish, but it feels like a really big ask for Tottenham Hotspur to contain a Real Madrid team who look to be improving all the time.

They have won 11 of their last 13 home Champions League games and can make up for the absence of Gareth Bale who would have loved to have faced his former club. Tottenham Hotspur can make life difficult for teams, but I still think they are going to be put under immense pressure here and have yet to take their Premier League form in European competition consistently.

Beating Borussia Dortmund at home and APOEL away are good, solid results for Tottenham Hotspur, but facing Real Madrid in front of their own fans is a different level of task. I expect Real Madrid to prove to be too strong on the day as they were for Manchester United in the European Super Cup back in August and Tottenham Hotspur won't be able to contain the home team.

I will look for Real Madrid to eventually wear down Tottenham Hotspur and I will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap in a win on Tuesday.


Anderlecht v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: The 3-0 win over Bayern Munich on Match Day 2 is the kind of result and performance that will have made a mark around Europe that Paris Saint-Germain are for real. They are now in complete control of this Champions League Group and now they won't want to let go by dropping silly points against Anderlecht over the next two weeks.

It is going to be tough for Anderlecht to stick with Paris Saint-Germain and the quality the French side have. Anderlecht have already been heavily beaten by Bayern Munich and Celtic and they have found the step up to the Champions League level too high in recent years.

Since November 2012, Anderlecht have lost 8 of 9 home games in the Champions League and the real worry has to be the amount of goals they have shipped in those games. The 0-3 loss to Celtic means Anderlecht have conceded at least three goals in 6 of their last 9 home Champions League games and Paris Saint-Germain could easily be the next team to hit that number in Brussels.

Goals haven't been a problem for Paris Saint-Germain with the front three they can call on and I think this could be another big win for them in the Champions League. Both wins have come by at least a three goal margin so far and I will look for Paris Saint-Germain to match that margin again and will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap here.


Bayern Munich v Celtic Pick: There have clearly been some issues at Bayern Munich which has affected the performances the team have been able to produce on the field and ended with the sacking of Carlo Ancelotti as manager.

Ancelotti and the senior players were not seeing eye to eye and the arrival of Jupp Heynckes feels like it will be a much more positive atmosphere for the players to play in. The 5-0 hammering of Freiburg is a very small sample to underline that statement, but Bayern Munich should improve and they are clearly the favourites to join Paris Saint-Germain in the Last 16 of the Champions League.

After Match Day 2 the Celtic fans would have felt much more confident of their chances of progressing to the Last 16 and surprising outsiders. Plenty had come on national radio to let people know that Celtic could upset Bayern Munich, but I really think there is a big difference in talent between the two squads.

The arrival of Heynckes should mean Bayern Munich are motivated to perform for the new man in charge especially if you believe what players are saying at the moment. He will look for Bayern Munich to get on the front foot and take the game to Celtic and the latter did see what can happen if these big teams have a strong day in the office when they were crushed 0-5 by Paris Saint-Germain on Match Day 1.

Of course Celtic have to be respected for drawing at Borussia Monchengladbach and Manchester City last season in the Champions League Group, but Monchengladbach had a poor season and were suffering an injury crisis and Manchester City made wholesale changes with their Last 16 place secured. Neither factors are in play in this one and I think Bayern Munich will be too good for Celtic on Wednesday.

I expect the attacking threat Bayern Munich can produce to see plenty of chances created and I am looking for a team who have won 16 of 18 home Champions League games to win another. I anticipate it may come relatively comfortably by a team who have scored plenty of home goals even through their struggles and I will back Bayern Munich to cover the Asian Handicap.


Benfica v Manchester United Pick: It is going to be very interesting to see the kind of tactics Jose Mourinho will employ in Manchester United's Champions League tie at Benfica just days after the criticism the manager faced for the tactics used in the draw at Anfield. It might not have been the attacking performance the fans wanted at Liverpool, but it was a good result and Manchester United will likely take a similar approach to the game in Lisbon.

However there should be more spaces to exploit in a game that means a lot for Benfica as they try and get back into a Champions League after a couple of disappointing performances. The 1-2 home defeat to CSKA Moscow and the 5-0 defeat at Basel has left Benfica in a precarious position in the Group as they get set to face Manchester United twice.

The home game is huge for Benfica who have to find a way to earn the three points to get back into the Group and that means trying to attack Manchester United. That will bode well for Mourinho and Manchester United who may have more space to exploit on the counter attack in this one than they found at Liverpool who didn't really change what looked a solid system of their own.

Benfica have shown they can be defensively vulnerable in the Champions League and I think Manchester United will have a few more attacking players on display to try and exploit that. Without Eric Bailly Manchester United also don't look as secure at the back as they have in other games and I think the situation for Benfica will mean this fixture has more spaces than you would imagine.

Manchester United away games in Europe under Jose Mourinho have been more functional than exciting, but they were at their attacking best in CSKA Moscow and I think Jose Mourinho will be looking for his side to get forward in this one.

Both teams should have their chances and while I did consider backing Manchester United to win, I also think they are a very short price when you think of Benfica being what most people considered to be the second best team in the Group. I don't thin Benfica are as bad as their results, but they have looked weak at the back which suggests there could be goals in this one.

The home team have to get forward to try and win a game to work their way back into the Group and Manchester United have shown how strong they can be on the counter attack. The game at Anfield was a pragmatic display, but I expect Manchester United to be a little more up the pitch to try and get on the front foot and I will look for these teams to share out three goals at least.


Chelsea v Roma Pick: It has been a tough couple of weeks to be a Chelsea fan who saw their team outplayed by Manchester City in a 0-1 home loss and then became the first team to concede and subsequently lose to Crystal Palace this weekend. They are looking to get back on the horse in this Champions League tie as Chelsea have a chance to take control of the Group, while Antonio Conte will be hoping they can pick up some momentum with three successive home games to come.

The return of Alvaro Morata would be an obvious boost for Chelsea and it does sound like the Spaniard is going to return for this fixture. It gives Chelsea more of a focal point, but with the additional quality he has compared to the back ups in the squad and is likely to be a key to the success Chelsea do, or do not, have this season.

The absences of N'Golo Kante and Victor Moses are a blow, but Chelsea will feel they can make up for that in this game against a Roma team who have been caught a little short when facing the best teams. The 0-1 loss to Napoli on Saturday was a big one for Roma, and even their 9 game away winning run has not come against teams of the quality of Chelsea.

Being able to play on the counter attack will be a bonus for Roma as they will feel more comfortable doing that, but Chelsea have the quality to win this game and put their back to back losses behind them. They have been a tough team to play at Stamford Bridge in Europe and Roma are not the best travellers in the Champions League with their recent European away successes coming in the Europa League.

You can be a little wary considering the Chelsea results in the last couple of weeks, but I will look for them to have too much for a Roma team who have not been able to compete with the best teams they have faced so far this season. I will look for the home team to win by a couple of goals on the night and move into complete command of this Group and I will back Chelsea to cover the Asian Handicap.


Juventus v Sporting Lisbon Pick: After falling short in the Champions League Final in June, Juventus have made a fairly slow start to the new season. It was similar to their reaction after losing the Champions League Final to Barcelona in 2015 and back then Juventus were able to recover effectively.

They are back in contention in this Group having beaten Olympiacos 2-0 on Match Day 2 after their 3-0 defeat in Barcelona. The double header with Sporting Lisbon are a couple of big games for both clubs as they are locked on 3 points together.

Juventus have to win the home game if they have serious ambitions of making it through to the Last 16. They should be too good for Sporting Lisbon who had lost 6 straight away Champions League games before beating Steaua Bucharest and Olympiacos this season. Last year they were beaten in all 3 away games in the Group and there is no doubt that Juventus are much stronger than Olympiacos.

It is harder to back Juventus to cover the Asian Handicap when you think of the way their games in the Champions League tend to develop. This is a club that won't look to attack throughout but one who can sometimes settle with a lead and hope to pick off an opponent.

Sporting Lisbon are not likely to go gung-ho in this one which should mean a tight game, although one where I think Juventus will eventually have the quality to break down their visitors. Juventus have won their last 5 home Champions League games and 4 of those have come with a clean sheet, while Sporting Lisbon lost their last 2 away Group games without scoring last season.

At odds against I will back Juventus to have enough to keep the backdoor shut in this one and the quality to find a breakthrough.


BATE Borisov v FC Koln Pick: The hope for BATE Borisov and FC Koln is that Arsenal can win their double header with Red Star Belgrade and give one of these teams a chance to finish 2nd in the Group. Neither BATE or Koln have made the kind of start they would have hoped in the Group and the two games against one another over the next two weeks are going to determine which one, if any, is able to challenge for a top two berth going forward.

It should mean the two teams are trying to put some attacking football together and try to win this game, although at this point it probably means more to BATE Borisov than FC Koln. The latter have been struggling mightily in the Bundesliga and they know that has to be the priority, while losing both Europa League games may make that an easier decision to make.

When things like that happen, it may mean that a team is not so bothered about chasing the game, but I think FC Koln will owe it to their fans to try and snap a poor run of form however they can. Picking up some momentum is important for FC Koln too and I think that is motivation enough to try and get forward and give BATE Borisov some problems.

On the other hand BATE Borisov will be looking to use home advantage to full effect. They have been a little inconsistent at home recently but goals have not been a problem for them and I can see these teams combining for at least three goals.

BATE Borisov have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 home games, but at the same time they have also conceded at least three times in 3 of those games. It certainly makes the prices for at least three goals to be scored in this one look a little too big and I will back that to be the outcome of this Group game.


Ostersunds v Athletic Bilbao Pick: When I looked through the Europa League fixture list this week, I was surprised to see Ostersunds still not getting the respect that they have perhaps earned. This is a team who have won all 4 home games in the Europa League and were the underdog the last 3 times, while Ostersunds have yet to concede a goal.

Of course you can understand the layers not taking any chances with Athletic Bilbao the visitors this week, but the Spanish club have not been in the best form. The win over Sevilla snapped a run of 4 losses in 5 games in all competitions and they have struggled in the Europa League Group having failed to score in the first couple of games.

Add in the fact that Athletic Bilbao have only won 1 of their last 7 away European ties and you have to wonder if they are a good thing at odds on to win here.

That price just looked wrong to me and I do think Ostersunds can earn a result here which can be backed at odds against. They have proven they can handle the step up in level of competition with wins over Galatasaray, PAOK and Hertha Berlin and I do think Ostersunds would be happy to take a point if they can get it.

With the pressure on Athletic Bilbao to produce, Ostersunds could have success on the counter attack to punish the Spaniards. The lack of goals for Athletic Bilbao and the clean sheets kept by Ostersunds in the Europa League leads me to backing the Swedish club with the start on the Asian Handicap.


Red Star Belgrade v Arsenal Pick: There will be some changes made to the Arsenal starting line up with the big game at Everton in mind and I think that makes the odds for The Gunners look unappealing. While I backed them to win at BATE Borisov, I think Red Star Belgrade are a better team than the Belarusian Champions and they can certainly test what will be a young defensive unit.

On the other hand, any time Arsenal can play the likes of Jack Wilshire, Theo Walcott, Olivier Giroud and potentially Alexis Sanchez in the forward areas, you have to think they can create chances. That is especially at the Europa League level with those players more accustomed to Champions League nights at this time of the season.

They should be able to give Red Star Belgrade something to think about, but we have also seen Arsenal looking far from secure defensively so far in the Europa League. With the confidence Red Star Belgrade have to have when playing at home, I think they can cause problems for Arsenal too and there could be a few goals shared out in this one.

Red Star Belgrade have to know that getting forward and testing a changed Arsenal backline is their best chance of securing a surprise result, but that may also play into the hands of Arsenal who should be dangerous on the counter attack. There is more on the line for Red Star Belgrade in this one, but I think Arsenal can have a free shot here knowing that they still have to host this opponent and I am looking for an attacking game to be rewarded with goals.


Zorya v Hertha Berlin Pick: This was supposed to be a Group in which Athletic Bilbao and Hertha Berlin would dominate, but both clubs have struggled. The layers aren't giving away any prices on those two teams though and I think Hertha Berlin are perhaps a little over-rated on their visit to the Ukraine.

They are facing a Zorya team who held both Fenerbahce and Feyenoord here in the Europa League last season and who have been given a boost in confidence in their 0-1 win at Athletic Bilbao on Match Day 2. Zorya have lost to Manchester United and Ostersunds in recent home European games, but I am not sure Hertha Berlin are playing with a full belief in their own system.

Hertha Berlin have not won any of their last 4 away games in all competitions and have lost 3 of those which makes it hard to pick them to win here. They look very short when you put that run of form down and I think Zorya are capable of at least holding them to a draw if not quite good enough to win this one.

You can get a start with Zorya on the Asian Handicap which will return a profit as long as the home team avoids defeat and I will back them to do that.


Dynamo Kiev v Young Boys Pick: Revenge has to be on the mind of the Dynamo Kiev players who were knocked out of the Champions League Qualifiers by Young Boys in August. In both games Young Boys scored in injury time which proved to be the difference in an away goals victory for the Swiss side, but Dynamo Kiev will want to show that upset was nothing more than a fluke.

The game in Kiev ended in a 3-1 win for Dynamo Kiev and they have scored three times in both Group games in the Europa League which will give them the belief they can earn a measure of revenge here. They are also facing a Young Boys team who have lost 8 of 11 away European ties and generally have been beaten by a comfortable margin in those games.

Young Boys may feel confident going to Kiev this time around considering they did win the Champion League Qualifier, but I think all of the pressure will come from the home team. A win for Dynamo Kiev would put them on the brink of making it through to the Last 32 in the Europa League and I do think they are going to be too strong for Young Boys.

With the added motivation of wanting to get the better of Young Boys after the Champions League Qualifiers I think Dynamo Kiev will get the better of their visitors. Young Boys have been beaten by by at least two goals in 7 of those 8 European defeats I have mentioned earlier and I will back Dynamo Kiev to cover the Asian Handicap.


Villarreal v Slavia Prague Pick: Both Villarreal and Slavia Prague have made a positive start to this Europa League Group and the winner of the double header over the next couple of weeks will likely secure a spot in the Last 32 of the competition.

Both teams will believe they are good enough to win at least one of the next two games, but in this one you have to give the edge to Villarreal who have been strong at home.

Compare that to Slavia Prague who have lost 4 of their last 6 away European ties over the last fifteen months and you can see why the edge has to be given to the home team. Slavia Prague are an improving team, but this is a significant step up to the usual level of competition they face and I think Villarreal will be able to show that on the day.

Villarreal have been a little inconsistent in recent seasons which can make it difficult to trust them, but I do think they will be too good on the day. I will look for Villarreal to secure a win by a couple of goals on the day and will back them to cover this Asian Handicap.

MY PICKS: Shakhtar Donetsk @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City-Napoli Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Benfica-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Chelsea - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juventus Win to Nil @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
BATE Borisov-FC Koln Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Coral (2 Units)
Ostersunds + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Red Star Belgrade-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Zorya + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Villarreal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.12 Bet Victor (2 Units)