NBA Playoff Picks 2025- NBA Finals (Thursday 5th June-Sunday 22nd June)

Plans were being made to at least be in New York City IF the Knicks were to finally make it back into the NBA Finals, but the Indiana Pacers had other ideas and there are already some big changes being made in Gotham to get their team over the line.

Credit has to be given to the Pacers who reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year and who have moved through the Playoffs with some big wins over a former, recent Champion, the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference and then getting the better of the New York Knicks for a second year in a row.

They look a potentially dangerous team and one that could have more to come, but they are facing the top Seed in the Western Conference and an Oklahoma City Thunder team that have looked the one to beat all season.

The Denver Nuggets almost secured the upset over the Thunder in the Second Round, but Oklahoma City have used that to fuel them and the crushing win over the Minnesota Timberwolves means they enter the Finals as a significant favourite.

It may not be the NBA Finals that some of the television executives would have hoped for, but there is a potential for it to be a fun Series with the way both the Pacers and Thunder approach their Basketball.

After a couple of strong Playoff runs for the NBA Picks, 2025 has proven to be more challenging. The Conference Finals selections were in a terrible position to open, but there is some momentum from turning things around and hopefully the NBA Finals Picks can at least turn a profit to round out the season.

All selections from the NBA Finals will be placed in this one thread.

NBA Finals 2025- Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder (June 5th-22nd)

Thursday 5th June

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: The NBA Finals features two teams where both would have expected to be taking part in this Series, but only one that the public would have believed in.

For much of the last eighteen months, the Oklahoma City Thunder have looked like a developing team that were ready to move from potential into Champions.

However, they were upset in the Second Round of the Playoffs last season and the same almost happened in 2025- this time the Thunder found a way to progress in Game 7 and the comfortable Series win over the Minnesota Timberwolves means they will go in as favourites to win the NBA Finals.

Fans, and the layers, have believed in Oklahoma City all season and they were amongst the market leaders even before the first tip-off.

On the other side, the Indiana Pacers may have felt overlooked by outsiders and they were considered an underdog even when the Playoffs began with the likes of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics seen as much more likely NBA Finalists. The Pacers had experience though having reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 and this is a team and a Coaching staff that have full belief in what they are trying to do.

The Pacers have dropped just four games in beating Milwaukee, Cleveland and the New York Knicks in the Playoff run and the Offensive power has been really impressive. There is a depth to the rotation that makes them dangerous and this will give Indiana fans real hope that they can upset the odds and win the NBA Championship.

Key players will have to perform at a top level and the Pacers are also going to be tested by an Oklahoma City rotation that can match their depth from the bench. There is no doubt that the Thunder can go score for score if needed, but the real difference between the teams may be on the Defensive side of the court where Oklahoma City have played at an elite level.

Unlike the teams that have been beaten by the Pacers, the Oklahoma City Thunder will feel they have the players that can rotate around and really put the clamp on this strong Offensive unit.

They did meet twice in the regular season and the Indiana Pacers will take encouragement from the fact they scored 111 and 114 points in those games, although they lost both, which underlines how tough it may be to find the balance needed to beat the top Seed coming out of the Western Conference.

The game hosted by the Thunder was played as recently as the end of March and resulted in a 19 point win for the home team.

Oklahoma City are being asked to cover a big number in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, but they are in a position where recent hosts in the NBA Finals have produced dominant wins. In the last eleven, those hosts have a 9-2 record against the spread and have won by an average of over 13 points per game, while home favourites being asked to lay at least 4.5 points have a 21-10-2 record against the spread since 2013.

It is a big number for Game 1 considering what we have seen from the Indiana Pacers on the Offensive side of the court, but it does feel like the Thunder are significantly better and that could play out to lay an early marker down for the entire NBA Finals.

Sunday 8th June

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: For long periods of Game 1, it felt like the Oklahoma City Thunder were in complete control and almost certainly going to be picking up the win.

However, they were not quite able to kick clear of the Indiana Pacers and teams have found out throughout the post-season that allowing the Eastern Conference Champions to stick around has been very dangerous. They have already had a number of historical comebacks during the Playoff run and the Indiana Pacers became the first team to be trailing by at least 9 points with three minutes left in a Conference Finals game and still manage to secure the win.

All credit has to be given to a team that have quality, but also a depth and balance that has proven to be too much for so many to handle. There is a real belief in one another, which means looking to find the open man no matter who it is, and the three point shooting continues to be a solid pathway to keeping Indiana within range of striking.

Tyrese Haliburton made the headlines for his game-winning shot, but he will feel there is so much room for improvement after a game in which he had 14 Points, 10 Rebounds and 6 Assists.

The Offensive balance mentioned is underlined by the fact that none of the Indiana players managed to score 20 points, but six players all had at least 10 points. Winning a game on the road without someone dominating and with the heavy turnovers will have given Indiana so much belief and the pressure will have shifted onto the Oklahoma City Thunder having lost home advantage and desperate to avoid being in a 0-2 hole when travelling to Indiana next week.

The Thunder will be tasked with making adjustments and that may begin with a more consistent three point shooting game and just resetting the Defensive schemes. They began really well, but Indiana were not stopped in the second half and that ultimately proved to be an issue when the Thunder's own Offensive firepower lessened.

Indiana have to be respected having led 2-0 in each of the three Playoff Series that have been won and they will be focused as they look to take a firm grip of the NBA Finals.

However, hosts have tended to play well in Game 2 of the Conference Finals and those that have lost Game 1 of any Playoff Series have largely bounced back with big wins. The Pacers avoided that fate when beating the Cleveland Cavaliers for a second time in a row in the Second Round, but the Oklahoma City Thunder crushed the Denver Nuggets having been upset in Game 1 in the same Round.

Over the last four years, those teams are 21-7 straight up and the Thunder have shown all season that they can rally even after a disappointing result.

There has to be a respect for a Pacers team that have played hard over the last month and during a 2025 NBA Playoffs where so many big leads have evaporated. However, you cannot dismiss the Thunder after a single game and they may just rally for a strong win in Game 2 in front of the home fans.

Wednesday 11th June

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick: There won't have been much surprise about the fact that the Oklahoma City Thunder put up a big response to dropping Game 1 of the NBA Finals and the 16 point win in Game 2 was even more comfortable than the final score might have suggested.

The momentum may have swung back to the Western Conference Champions, and favourites to win the NBA Championship, but the Indiana Pacers have responded to setbacks right through the NBA Playoff run.

Ultimately the Pacers will be returning home feeling like they have achieved their most immediate goal and that is taking away home advantage from the Oklahoma City Thunder. This is the first time in the post-season that the Indiana Pacers are not leading 2-0 after the first two games, which is going to be challenging, but there is a real feeling amongst the Pacers players and staff that there are many adjustments they can still make.

With that in mind, the 1-1 score after two games is pretty good for Indiana who should have lost both games, but continue to show they can rally at key moments.

However, the adjustments that they need to make are clear and the Pacers are still in 'prove it' mode as they look to get the team on track in Game 3. Slow starts have been a feature of the opening two games, but the Pacers have not allowed the Oklahoma City Thunder to pull too far away and they will be expecting role players to produce much better being back at home.

Tyrese Haliburton took the headlines for his game winning shot in Game 1, but he has only scored 31 points in the two games played and the Pacers have yet to have a single player reach 20 points. This has to change, as Haliburton has acknowledged, while the slow starts also cannot continue with Indiana being forced to fight out of holes.

They scored 45 first half points in Game 1 and just 41 points in Game 2, but the Pacers have found a stronger rhythm in the second half of both of those games. Unfortunately for Indiana, they were down in a deep hole in Game 2 and could not really force their way back into that one as a contest and so that is something Rick Carlisle and the team have to address if they are going to find a way back to Oklahoma City either 3-1 ahead or, at worse, at 2-2.

Indiana's depth has impressed, but those bench players have not been as effective as they need and there is some pressure on the starters to come out and fire. The Pacers have been in decent shape when the starting five have been on the court, but they just need to make some adjustments to try and put some pressure on a Thunder Defensive unit that have impressed all season.

It is tough to oppose Oklahoma City, but this is a team that have had more challenges when playing on the road and the Indiana Pacers should still have plenty of belief in what they are trying to do. With the home crowd behind them, Indiana should be able to make a faster start and some of the bench players should be more comfortable being back in their own Arena.

At the same time, perhaps the Thunder bench is not as effective now they are operating in a hostile environment and so the points on offer with the home team look appealing.

Teams that have been blown out in the NBA Finals have struggled in their next game, but that was not the case in the 2024 Series and the Indiana Pacer can bounce back. They can take comfort from the fact that teams that have won Game 2 have followed up with a 4-8 record against the spread in Game 3, while it cannot be ignored that the Oklahoma City Thunder are 0-7 against the spread as the road favourite in the NBA Playoffs this season, despite being 4-3 straight up in those games.

The Pacers are 6-2 straight up at home in the Playoff run in 2025 and they are 1-1 against the spread when set as the home underdog.

There are likely going to be moments when the Thunder look like they can pull away for another big win, but the Indiana Pacers have shown they can make the adjustments before and during games when things have gone against them. Those have seen the Pacers surprise at times and they may be able to keep this one competitive and potentially pull the upset outright.

Friday 13th June

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick: There may have been some fans disappointed with the match up in the NBA Finals, but the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will not be worrying about that.

In reality the disappointment is really with the Eastern Conference Champions and the fact that the Indiana Pacers were largely outplayed in the opening two games backed up those criticisms, even if they were returning home at 1-1. The layers also believed that the Oklahoma City Thunder were going to roll past the Indiana Pacers having recovered from the heartbreaking Game 1 loss, but this is an Indiana team who have consistently produced and who have continued to defy the odds.

They were much better in Game 3 compared with the two road games and the Indiana Pacers won as the underdog and are 2-1 ahead in the NBA Finals. Game 4 is also being played in their home building and the Indiana Pacers will not be too concerned about being set as a big underdog again as they look to make use of the day of rest between games.

A Series that has little rest time would benefit the Indiana Pacers who looked to have worn down the Oklahoma City Thunder at the end of Game 3.

However, this young Thunder team deserve a lot of respect as being one that has consistently bounced back from setbacks all season and you have to believe that some adjustments will be made. The starting players may need to play a few more points after the bench and role players predictably struggled in a hostile environment and the Oklahoma City Thunder will look to clean up their own game with too many turnovers proving to be their undoing.

The concern for the Western Conference Champions is that the Indiana role players really showed up to the party in Game 3 and the likes of Tyrese Haliburton produced their best performance of the Finals. Being back at home will help them too and a real worry for the Thunder is they lost a game in which the Pacers hit just 9 three pointers.

Most would have predicted that a heavy scoring day from beyond the arc would be needed if the Indiana Pacers were going to win games and so managing to do that in Game 3 without makes the Pacers very dangerous.

They will continue to push the tempo and look to gas out the Thunder, as the Pacers have done to so many of the opponents faced already in this post-season and it is difficult to oppose Indiana with this amount of points being given to them.

As mentioned ahead of Game 3, the Oklahoma City Thunder's record as a road favourite in the Playoffs has to be a worry with the team dropping to 4-4 straight up and 0-8 against the spread. At the same time the Pacers improved to 7-2 straight up and they are 2-1 against the spread as the home underdog.

In recent years, teams who won Game 3 have a poor record at covering the spread in Game 4 (1-4 against the spread) and home teams are just 3-8 against the spread. We have seen the Thunder bounce back impressively from setbacks and those trends are going against the selection, but this Indiana Pacers team are unlikely to be bothered about a day of rest between games and they have the tempo and intensity to avoid the blowout and, potentially, earn the outright upset for a third time in the NBA Finals in 2025.

Monday 16th June

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Pick: Two full days of rest has been given to the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals and some of that time will have been spent thinking about what may have been, especially for Indiana.

Before the NBA Finals started, Indiana would likely have accepted being at 2-2 and with every chance of winning a first NBA Championship.

However, the way we have got this scoreline will sting considering Indiana had been leading by 4 points with time ticking down in the Fourth Quarter of Game 4 and with a 3-1 lead coming over the horizon. They scored just one point from that moment and some clutch basketball from the Oklahoma City Thunder, notably Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, helped them overcome the deficit and almost miraculously end up covering the spread.

They were helped by Bennedict Mathurin, who missed three Free Throws with the game in the balance at the end of the Fourth Quarter and then, inexplicably, made two fouls before the ball was inbounded to offer the Thunder a Free Throw AND possession.

Ultimately that was the clincher for the Thunder who did not play well in Game 4, but who will have taken a lot of belief out of the fact that they found a way to win.

It was perhaps surprising to see Indiana wilt in the final three minutes- they have been able to wear down so many opponents in those last few minutes, but this time it was the Pacers who struggled.

Both teams will benefit from having the days off to just recharge flagging batteries and that should see Game 5 improve in terms of the Offensive performances.

There is no doubt that the Thunder and Pacers are playing at a very high level Defensively, but there are some top playmakers on both sides of the court and those players will want to make a big impact in what feels like a pivotal game. With the Series at 2-2, this is a big opportunity for someone to step up and begin to write their name in NBA history and that pressure can either make, or break, a player.

All of that pressure feels like it is on the shoulders of SGA for the Thunder and Tyrese Haliburton for the Pacers and both should log significant minutes as the Head Coaches perhaps begin to lose faith in some of the role players and bench to keep their team alive.

Out of the two teams, the Thunder looked much more tired in Game 3 and 4, but late buckets turned the tide in their favour.

Even then, it feels like they are being asked to lay a lot of points in this Game 5.

The number is not as high as the first two games hosted by the Oklahoma City Thunder, but it is still significant and the Pacers have refused to go away easily in any game played.

Hosts favoured by 4.5 points have a strong record in the NBA Finals, but the Thunder are 1-1 against the spread in the spot this season.

They will feel the role players are going to be more comfortable at home and adjustments may be made to give Alex Caruso more playing time having been so important to the turnaround in Game 4. That makes Oklahoma City dangerous and the Pacers are going to have to mentally recover from what they will feel was a big chance blown last time out.

However, resiliency is what the Pacers have displayed all season and they can keep this one competitive with that rest helping the players recover. This is a team that has refused to go away all post-season and this may be too many points being given to them barring any more late game mental check outs as they produced in Game 4.

Thursday 19th June

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers Game 6 Pick: This Pick comes out a little later than others during the NBA post-season and that is largely to get over the frustration of coming up 3 points short of back to back winners.

Instead, late turnovers or missed Free Throws have seen the selections go 0-2 and you do have to wonder how the Indiana Pacers can keep fighting through the adversity of giving games away. Instead of being ahead in the NBA Finals, like they perhaps should be, the Pacers return home for Game 6 looking to stave off elimination and the end of the season.

Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard have to be highlighted for late game blunders in Game 4 and Game 5 that have effectively cost the Pacers big opportunities. They were just 4 points behind in Game 4 and with every chance of rallying when Mathurin missed two Free Throws and then committed two fouls to allow the Thunder to pull away with possession of the ball.

In Game 5 the Pacers had rallied to within 2 points of the rocking Thunder with eight minutes left to play, but Nembhard was a big contributor to a run of four straight turnovers and that ultimately ended their hopes.

Those role players may take on added importance in Game 6 with Tyrese Haliburton struggling with a right calf issue- the top Indiana player has stated he will do all he can to suit up, but he was struggling in practice and it may be up to others to step up and try and take over this game and make sure the Pacers have one more shot at winning their maiden NBA Championship.

For Oklahoma City it will be a case of wanting more of the same from Game 5 having looked the stronger team for much of the night, but still struggling to put away the Pacers. This time they did not allow the fightback at the beginning of the Fourth Quarter to distract them and the Thunder were grateful for a huge night from Jalen Williams.

The key is to continue to create the turnovers and that may be something the Thunder can do if Tyrese Haliburton is unable to go for stretches of this game.

They have not been easy to trust as the road favourite, but the Thunder are 1-1 against the spread in the two games hosted by Indiana in the NBA Finals. Momentum is with them and the last seven teams that have had a chance to close out the Finals in Game 6 have produced a 6-1 record against the spread.

After what we have seen from the Pacers throughout the post-season, and even in the last couple of games, this feels like a lot of points to be laying with the road team. However, the uncertainty about Haliburton may just have shifted things in Oklahoma City's favour even if the Indiana role players are likely to be better at home.

Sunday 22nd June

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 Pick: Nine years have passed since the last Game 7 in the NBA Finals, but a poor display from the Oklahoma City Thunder has opened the door for another 'winner takes all' contest this Sunday.

They will be extremely disappointed with the entire performance- the role players struggled, turnovers absolutely crushed them and then a substandard display of shooting the three ball allowed the Indiana Pacers to surge clear and ultimately blow out the Western Conference Champions.

It has been a fun NBA Finals to watch, but it has been a huge frustration for the NBA Picks.

After blowing back to back covers by just three combined points, the Indiana Pacers had the perfect Game 6 performance.

Role players who had made critical mistakes in the Fourth Quarter in Game 4 and Game 5 played brilliantly in Game 6 and the momentum is now back with the Pacers.

However, it is a very tough Game 7 to call with the 'x factor' regarding turnovers almost impossible to call- the team that plays the cleanest game is likely going to win, but you can toss a coin and decide which of these two are most likely to do that in a hugely pressurised situation.

The Defensive schemes have been pretty good on both sides of the court and the adjustments made by the Indiana Pacers may just give them the edge, although the layers are well aware of the pressures on Game 7 with the total points line dropped by a huge amount between Game 6 and this one.

Picking a winner is not easy and you can make the case for both teams- the Oklahoma City Thunder have been a lot better at home than on the road, and they have controlled large parts of the three games they have hosted. Despite that, the Thunder have not really been able to put the Indiana Pacers away, although the spread is not nearly as high as the previous three games hosted by Oklahoma City.

It has been a very difficult post-season, the worst one since the Bubble of 2020, and so another disappointing late capitulation cannot be ruled out for the selection. The lean has to be with the Indiana Pacers, who have room for improvement from Game 6 even after the blowout win, and they have shown they can hang around.

Role players have to be careful with the ball and not kill the Indiana run with their turnovers as they did in Game 5 and it would not surprise anyone if the Thunder score a late bucket to win by 8 points, especially with the way things have bounced for the selections made.

However, the Indiana Pacers are a team that have fought hard throughout the Playoffs and one more big push should see them in a very competitive game and potentially pulling the outright upset.

The last three NBA Finals that have gone into a Game 7 have been won by the team that was victorious in Game 6, while teams that have won the previous game by double digits have produced a 8-4-1 record against the spread between Game 5 and Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

This all suggests Indiana can potentially win this one outright, but the recommendation is take the points and hope the late turnovers go in the right direction.

MY PICKS: 05/06 Oklahoma City Thunder - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

08/06 Oklahoma City Thunder - 10.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

11/06 Indiana Pacers + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

13/06 Indiana Pacers + 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

16/06 Indiana Pacers + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

19/06 Oklahoma City Thunder - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

22/06 Indiana Pacers + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

NBA Finals: 2-4, - 2.24 Units (6 Unit Stakeds, - 37.33% Yield)

Conference Finals: 5-5, - 0.45 Units (10 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Second Round: 8-14-1, - 6.64 Units (23 Units Staked, - 28.87% Yield)

First Round: 20-19, - 0.72 Units (39 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 22nd)

All of the events being played this week are scheduled to be concluded on Saturday, a couple of days before Wimbledon begins.

That means the middle of the week is perhaps busier than usual with the the tournaments looking to whittle down to the last eight ahead of the Thursday Quarter Finals. A busy day means a fair few Tennis Picks from the matches set to be played as I look for a slightly more consistent day after a mixed Tuesday.

Some of the matches have not been priced up at the time of writing and any Picks will be added to this thread as those markets are released.

Tallon Griekspoor - 1.5 games v Alex Molcan: He may not be the player he once was, but beating Feliciano Lopez on a grass court is still a tough challenge and Tallon Griekspoor has to be credited for keeping himself focused to secure the victory through a couple of tie-breakers. The raw numbers showed it was a tough day in the office with the Lopez serve a difficult shot to deal with, but Tallon Griekspoor served well enough himself and that is going to be an important shot for him over the next couple of weeks.

Ultimately the return is where Griekspoor is going to have difficulties in progressing his career if he cannot find a bit more out of that side of his game. On the faster surfaces it has been a real issue for the Dutchman and it has been the case during this grass court season with just 31% of points won on the return and that has led to 11% of return games ending in a break of serve.

It has not prevented Tallon Griekspoor winning five of the seven grass court matches played this month and that is down to the 94% of service games being held to build scoreboard pressure.

He is much more experienced than Alex Molcan, one of the improving players on the Tour, although the Slovakian has earned a solid win over Miomir Kecmanovic in the First Round here in Mallorca. The serve is an important shot for Alex Molcan on all surfaces and he has been pounding through those games efficiently in his two grass court matches, although the question for him is the same for his opponent and that is finding a way to improve the returning side of his game.

The two grass court matches has seen Alex Molcan break in just 9% of return games played as he has won 29% of return points played.

This will be a match that is going to be won and lost in the small margins, but Tallon Griekspoor may hold the mental edge having beaten Alex Molcan a couple of times on the Tour already. One of those wins came in Halle last week and Tallon Griekspoor has yet to be broken in their two previous matches, while the inches have been with him on the return.

Tallon Griekspoor has created fifteen break points compared with Alex Molcan's two in their previous matches and that includes a four to one edge last week in Halle. The Dutchman looks like he could hold the slight edge in this one too and I think his serving will build enough scoreboard pressure to find a way to edge past Alex Molcan and cover this line set for the Second Round match.

Benjamin Bonzi-Denis Shapovalov over 22.5 games: The World Ranking points are being removed from Wimbledon 2021 over the next couple of weeks and that could have a significant impact on Denis Shapovalov who reached the Semi Final at that event. There are no Ranking points on offer at Wimbledon this year and the Canadian has had a mixed season to this point which means a drop in the World Ranking was expected any way.

He will be Seeded at Wimbledon, but it is important for Denis Shapovalov to try and build some confidence and momentum this week in Mallorca. I am a little surprised he decided to leave England to take in this tournament rather than playing in Eastbourne (or playing Halle rather than Queens last week), but Denis Shapovalov is looking for positive results on the court and a change in conditions may suit him.

Last year Denis Shapovalov really enjoyed his time on the grass, but the loss of confidence since then has contributed to him losing his first match in Stuttgart and London. He has not played badly, but the pressure points have not been played as he would have liked and it has meant Denis Shapovalov has lost matches perhaps a little undeservingly so.

Ultimately you only get the results that you can cross over the line and Denis Shapovalov will need to serve well and hope that can put him in a position to win this match. The Canadian has held 88% of his service games played over the last couple of grass tournaments and was at 89% last season when reaching the Wimbledon Semi Final, but Denis Shapovalov has struggled on the return.

He is going to be tested on that side of his tennis by Benjamin Bonzi who has a solid 13-4 record on the grass courts, although the Frenchman has built that largely against players Ranked outside the top 100. In fact, Benjamin Bonzi has a 2-3 record against top 100 Ranked players on this surface, although you should not ignore the fact that both of those were recorded over the last couple of weeks and Bonzi did push Stefanos Tsitsipas to three sets in a defeat in Halle.

Benjamin Bonzi has held 95% of his service games played on the grass in 2022, while he certainly has gotten a bit more out of his return than Denis Shapovalov. He created ten break points against a decent server like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Benjamin Bonzi only faced four break points on his own serve so will feel he has the weapons to try and contain Denis Shapovalov in this Second Round match.

You have to believe Denis Shapovalov will be able to roll through some service games of his own and I do think the limited break opportunities could see this Second Round match surpassing the total games line set.

With a very high percentage of service games being held, I do think we will see at least one tie-breaker on the day and that can set this match on the way to a number of games to surpass the line where it is at right now.

Ilya Ivashka-Stefanos Tsitsipas over 22.5 games: The head to head with Emil Ruusuvuori clearly is one that Ilya Ivashka enjoys, but he has not had the same success against Stefanos Tsitsipas with two losses from their two Tour meetings. Both have been pretty one-sided losses too with the Belarusian struggling with the return of serve, but Ilya Ivashka has to feel that the grass courts could be a leveller for him.

He has long been comfortable on this surface and Ilya Ivashka may have felt he could have had a solid impact at Wimbledon if the tournament had not decided to go rogue and ban Belarusian and Russian players from competing. Some may have felt disheartened, but Ilya Ivashka has played some solid grass court tennis this month and his only losses have both come at the hands of World Number 1 Daniil Medvedev.

Both have been competitive losses and Ivashka has been holding 91% of the service games played on the surface and that is a strong number. He has won 68% of points behind serve and that is a number that will make it difficult for a returner like Stefanos Tsitsipas to break him.

While a still improving player, Stefanos Tsitsipas has struggled with his return on the grass and he does not look completely comfortable with how best to approach this side of his tennis. Over the last couple of weeks, Stefanos Tsitsipas has yet to have a really strong grass court tournament and he has won just 28% of points against the serve and that has produced breaks in 10% of return games played.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has enjoyed facing the Ilya Ivashka serve, but one of those matches was on a clay court on which the Greek player is much more comfortable than he is on the grass.

It will mean pressure on his own serve, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 69% of points behind serve and he will believe it is a shot that can contain his opponent in the Second Round in Mallorca.

The serve has certainly been too much for Ilya Ivashka to deal with in their previous matches and this could be another match in which the players are able to roll through service games and need tie-breakers to separate them. While holding a mental edge from their previous head to head meetings, Stefanos Tsitsipas may not be as comfortable as Ilya Ivashka is on the grass courts and that could make this match the most competitive of the three between them.

Motivation could be a question for Stefanos Tsitsipas if he falls behind in the match with Wimbledon fast approaching, but I do think he wants to at least put a couple of wins on the board before heading to London. I don't expect anything less than a full effort from Ilya Ivashka with this being his last grass court tournament of the month and with two strong servers and two relatively average return players, I think this match will surpass the total set for the match.

MY PICKS: Tallon Griekspoor - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Benjamin Bonzi-Denis Shapovalov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ilya Ivashka-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marcos Giron @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez-Daniel Altmaier Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Greet Minnen - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alize Cornet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Yulia Putintseva @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Dan Evans-Maxime Cressy Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro-Taylor Fritz Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ryan Peniston - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-9, + 5.10 Units (42 Units Staked, + 12.14% Yield)

Euro 2020 Match Day 3 Group Picks 2021 (June 20th-23rd)

There may be four third place finishers making it through to the Last 16 of the Euro 2020 Finals, but it is still surprising to see that twenty-three of the twenty-four teams taking part still having an opportunity to make it through.

Only North Macedonia have officially been eliminated and only the Netherlands have guaranteed themselves as Group Winners.

With that in mind, the final round of Group games should have plenty on the line for all of the teams involved and there should be plenty of twists and turns to come. Things will clear up by Monday evening when three Groups are completed, but teams are still jockeying for position and there are some good looking matches to come.

Sunday 20th June

Italy vs Wales Pick: Two wins from two Group games will have won the section for many teams, but Italy still have a bit of work to do to make sure they leave Rome as Group A Winners.

Avoiding defeat will be good enough to do that and it may be a result that suits both Italy and their opponents Wales who have almost certainly secured 2nd place in the Group.

Roberto Mancini could make some changes to give some of the other squad members an opportunity, but the manager would also like to keep the momentum behind his team and I would not be surprised if the Italians put another win on the board.

Wales have played well in the tournament and the pace on the counter attack will worry an Italian team that can lack some legs at the back. However, Robert Page and his men may feel the best approach is to contain their hosts and avoid a big defeat which should be good enough for 2nd place as long as Switzerland don't batter Turkey in the other game in the Group.

The edge is with Wales though and they have put in a lot of work to secure their place in the Last 16 in all likelihood.

They do pose a threat on the break and the likes of Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey are playing well, but I think Italy may just have enough to break them down and secure a narrow win. Another clean sheet would not be a massive surprise and I would not be massively surprised if both teams slow down towards the end of this fixture with Knock Out matches to come later in the week.

Turkey vs Switzerland Pick: After failing to win any of the four Group games these two nations have combined to play for, the situation means both Turkey and Switzerland are in a precarious position in the tournament.

They meet in Baku on Sunday and both teams need to win the game and hope that is good enough to take them through to the next Round.

Turkey are under more pressure having lost both Group games and a win may not be enough considering the awful goal difference- they don't just need to win, but likely need to win big and that means an attacking approach has to be taken to this fixture.

They have created chances, but Turkey have been poor in the final third and they need to show better composure if they are going to have any chance of Qualifying.

Switzerland have things much simpler- if they win they move onto four points and that should be enough to take them through. They were decent against Wales and deserved more than a point, but Switzerland were awful in Rome and the travel back to Baku does not favour them at all.

I do think they will cause Turkey problems considering what we have seen defensively from the Turks, but this could develop into an open game and especially if Turkey score first. Goals have been an issue for both of these teams in this tournament, but this should be a more open encounter and I think at least three goals will be shared out.

Monday 21st June

North Macedonia vs Netherlands Pick: Beating both Ukraine and Austria and scoring five goals has given the Netherlands fans hopes of a very strong Finals to come. They have already won Group C and so should be rewarded with a good looking Last 16 match and the draw could easily open up for the Netherlands with the way the opening fixtures have gone.

Having secured all they have wanted, Frank de Boer could easily make changes to his team, but there is almost a full week before Holland will play again and so he won't want to lose some of the momentum that has been earned.

They could really go into the Last 16 with a heap of momentum as the Netherlands take on eliminated North Macedonia.

The latter have shown they came through the weakest of the Play Off paths into the Euro Finals and they have looked markedly weaker than both Ukraine and Austria and now face the best team in the section. North Macedonia have nothing to lose so they could be dangerous, but defensively they have looked off the pace and teams have created plenty of chances against them.

I do think the Netherlands will be found out later in the tournament, especially as their attack and defence look a little light, but for now they should be comfortable and I think they win this game pretty comfortably.

Momentum can be so important to teams and the Netherlands can go into the Last 16 with three wins behind them. I don't think there will be wholesale changes, although a few of the squad could be given an opportunity, and I think the depth will be enough to see off North Macedonia by a couple of goals on the day.

Ukraine vs Austria Pick: A point would likely be good enough to take both Ukraine and Austria through to the Last 16.

The layers clearly believe the two teams are more than aware of that being the potential outcome of this fixture and the draw is actually trading at odds on.

You can't really argue with the theory and I do think there will be a temptation for both of these teams to not take too many risks.

It is not often you see the draw at the prices they are for this one, but I think it is a risky play. Instead, a small interest on there being 'no goalscorer' might be the best approach as you can see both Ukraine and Austria perhaps easing off if this game is level with half an hour left, but also covers the chance of an own goal breaking the deadlock.

There might not be a lot of reason for either team to commit to attack in this one and both may shake hands on finishing 2nd and 3rd and moving through to a Last 16 tie over the next weekend.

Finland vs Belgium Pick: Only one team has managed to come from behind and win a game at Euro 2020 and Belgium's win over Denmark has taken them through to the Last 16. Avoiding defeat will be enough to take them through as Group Winners, but Roberto Martinez likes his Belgium team to play with attacking intent and even with some changes I do think they will be too good for this opponent.

They should give the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard more minutes to try and get those key players up to speed before the Knock Out Rounds begin, and Belgium have shown they have some depth when crushing Belarus 8-0 in a World Cup Qualifier in March.

Roberto Martinez is taking his team back to St Petersburg and the travel is an issue, but Belgium have momentum and five goals in two Group games has given them a boost.

They will be facing a Finland team who likely still need a point to take them through to the Last 16.

Finland work hard and will give it a go, but they are not the best defensively and you do have to worry about them if they go chasing this game. That has to be a fear for the Finnish, although a narrow defeat may not prevent them going through to the Last 16 depending what happens in the other game.

Even with that in mind, it will be difficult to contain this Belgium team despite the likelihood of one or two changes to be made to freshen up the starting line up.

A comfortable win for one of the favourites looks the most likely outcome of this final Group game.

Russia vs Denmark Pick: The Christian Eriksen incident has seriously hurt the Denmark chances at this Euro 2020, but there is still an outside chance they can work their way through to the Last 16.

Two defeats have been costly for other teams around the tournament, but Denmark are in a weak section and a win by a couple of goals may see them through as 2nd place as long as Finland are not able to avoid defeat against Belgium.

One of the stronger third place finishes will also be within Denmark's grasp with a big win and they have played well enough to earn more than what they have in this Group so far. This is a team that has been creating chances and they will believe home advantage could be the key in this final Group game against a Russia team that has been a mixed bag.

Despite playing both games at home previously, Russia still need a positive result to earn their place in the next Round and a defeat would likely see them exiting the tournament. That puts some pressure on them and travelling has usually been a weakness for this team.

It could be a fairly open game with both teams chasing the points and I think there will be goals involved.

However, I think Denmark have been very unfortunate in this tournament so far and they may just find one big performance which helps them past this opponent and give them every chance to Qualify for the Last 16. Some eyes and ears will be looking at the game at St Petersburg, but Denmark have to focus on themselves and that means winning this game.

I think they can do that.

Tuesday 22nd June

Croatia vs Scotland Pick: The situation could not be clearer for Croatia and Scotland when they meet in the final Group games on Tuesday evening- both have a single point from the two games played so far and a draw would likely mean both are going to be exiting the Euro 2020 Finals.

A win or bust frame of mind should mean an open fixture develops at some point and the big question for both managers is whether their teams have enough goals to find a victory.

Scotland have yet to score at Euro 2020, but they have created some wonderful chances and poor finishing has really let them down. On another night they would have earned 6 points from their two games played, but Scotland's poor finishing has proved costly and they are under pressure to deliver.

Che Adams is a Premier League player with Southampton, but he has long been someone who has underperformed when it comes to conversion rates and Scotland are going to be under pressure to be much better in the final third. This Croatia team is experienced at the back, but they are an ageing team and Scotland should have enough to create chances against them.

Croatia have also struggled in legitimate away games and that has to be an encouragement for Scotland, although this is a nation that has historically found a way to find a glorious defeat from strong positions.

Teams have created chances against Scotland and I do think Croatia will be able to do that even if they are not as strong as they once were in the forward areas. They have to take risks and that means increasing the intensity of the performance, while an early goal could really open this fixture up completely.

1-1 means nothing to either team and I think that has to mean attacking players will be used and spaces could open up as this fixture hits the 70th minute mark and further along.

It is difficult to back these teams to be clinical in front of goal considering what we have seen from them in this tournament, but both Scotland and Croatia can create chances in front of goal. If a player or two can just show the composure needed, one of the teams may find the three points they need to progress and it could come from a relatively high-scoring fixture to round out what has been a low-scoring Group.

Czech Republic vs England Pick: When you plan out the draw before a tournament ball has been played it can be easy to get carried away by the possibilities and for many winning Group D would be a bad decision as it would mean facing either Germany/France/Portugal in the Second Round.

It is with that in mind that many felt finishing 2nd would be a better long-term plan for a team and I think that is influencing the odds for this fixture.

England can go through as 2nd place in the Group if they don't win this fixture and you can understand why some think playing out a draw would suit both teams. The Czech Republic's aims are to get through to the Knock Out Stage and that would guarantee they do that, while England would likely be pretty happy even if it means leaving Wembley Stadium until the Semi Final.

A weaker path helped England reach the World Cup Semi Final three years ago so this is something that would be in mind. Obviously it won't be mentioned by the management, but I also think Gareth Southgate needs a much better performance from his team than the one produced in the draw with Scotland.

It is hard to know what kind of desire England have- they are a big price if they were definitely going to play for the win, but you do wonder if that is going to be high on the agenda throughout this fixture.

What England have done of late is not give up too many goals and that may be underlined in this fixture. The Czech Republic have not exactly created a lot of chances in their opening two games and I think England can largely contain their threat, although England will have to be much better in the final third to break down a team that has overachieved defensively considering the chances they have allowed.

In usual circumstances England would look a massive price as I have said, but you can't really know for sure what they are thinking and whether playing for 2nd is the best bet for them.

In all likelihood a point suits both teams and I would not be surprised if one of the teams fails to find the net in what could be a potentially another uninspiring fixture in this Group.

Wednesday 23rd June

Slovakia vs Spain Pick: One of the big disappointments at the Euro 2020 Finals so far has to be Spain, although this is a team that has just lacked a clinical touch rather than totally underachieving.

Unfortunately it is a big part of football to find a way to convert chances into goals and Luis Enrique may make more changes in a bid to lift his team. A missed Penalty against Poland means Spain are almost certainly going to need to win this game to have any chance of making it through to the Last 16.

Draws with Sweden and Poland have come about through poor finishing, but Spain do finish up with the weakest team in the section.

Slovakia have three points on the board and another may be good enough to take them through to the Last 16, but they have not really been as strong as they would have liked. A lack of goals was a concern before the Finals began and Slovakia have created very little so far, which should be encouraging for the Spain fans that have been vocal in their disgust with the results so far.

Defensively Spain have not been at their best and I do think that will encourage their visitors, but I do think Spain will have the edge in the match. A narrow defeat for Slovakia may not be the worst result when the entire Group Stage shakes out, but that may be the best they can hope for against a Spain team that are surely going to punish someone soon.

Sweden vs Poland Pick: The layers have placed Poland as the favourites for this final Group game because they 'need' to win, but I think that offers up an opportunity to oppose them here.

The draw with Spain was a positive result, but Slovakia's win over Poland has put them in a difficult spot and a draw is likely going to mean elimination. They will have to take risks and Poland have a player in Robert Lewandowski that has proven himself a lethal finisher in the top European Leagues, but you can't discount the motivation that Sweden may have.

A defeat coupled with a Spain win would mean Sweden are going to be hoping to be one of the best third place finishers and that would also mean a very difficult Last 16 tie. However, a win and they can top the Group which means facing a third place team in the next Round and that would present Sweden a real chance to reach the Quarter Final of back to back major international tournaments.

The Swedes defend well enough to frustrate Poland and I do think they have some pace and quality in the final third which could see them find a way to secure a positive result. If Poland begin to chase, who would discount a Swedish counter attack to win the Group and I certainly think they are being disrespected as the slight underdog in this match.

Sweden have arguably looked better than Poland in the tournament with a solid base from which they can build. That is superior to Poland who do give up chances and have conceded three goals in two Group games and I think Sweden may be the surprising Group E Winners.

A draw would likely mean things coming down to goal difference assuming Spain finally get things right, but Sweden should be motivated to try and win this game and the Group. With an opponent that may have to take risks in front of them, much could come down to how effective Sweden are on the counter attack late in the game and I think they will find a way to the victory when all is said and done.

Germany vs Hungary Pick: The situation will be very clear to all of the teams in Group F by the time they kick off the final Group fixtures at Euro 2020 on Wednesday evening, but you do have to feel the permutations are more likely to affect the other fixture in the Group.

Both Germany and Hungary are much clearer in their ambitions and that is namely a win should be good enough to take them through to the Last 16.

The media may have been sharpening their knives in Germany on Saturday as the national team fell 0-1 behind against Portugal and the fear of a repeat of the World Cup 2018 failure certainly came to the fore. However, Joachim Low's team feel they are being underestimated and turned on the style in thumping the European Champions 4-2 and earn some vital momentum to take towards the Group Stage.

With France failing to win in Budapest, Germany have every chance of topping this section and they will be targeting one more win in Munich.

Germany have been a hard team to get a read on since the World Cup with inconsistent results and poor defensive performances holding them back. However, some of the younger players have provided an attacking spark and Germany have been scoring goals for fun and especially in home games which makes them very dangerous.

They created a lot of chances against Portugal and were in some promising positions against France which bodes well now they take on the weakest team in the Group.

Hungary showed resiliency in their 1-1 draw with France, but they have given up huge chances in both games played in the Group and those came in Budapest. Now they have to travel to Munich and I do think Hungary will struggle to contain their hosts and eventually will have to take risks to try and earn the positive result they need to have an opportunity to play in the Knock Out Rounds.

That could leave them exposed to a Germany team that does like to get forward and score goals and I think they can sign off at Munich with a big Group Stage win.

It wouldn't be that surprising if Hungary can cause problems of their own against a vulnerable German defence, but I don't think they will be able to contain their hosts. An early goal could really set Germany on their way in this one and I think they can cover what is perhaps the biggest Asian Handicap of the tournament so far.

Portugal vs France Pick: I am writing this out on Monday but the situation for both Portugal and France will be much clearer by the time this match kicks off on Wednesday evening.

While Portugal are not going to have a guaranteed place in the Last 16 of the Euro 2020 Tournament by then, they will know how many more points they need.

Assuming Hungary will not win in Munich, 3 points could be enough for Portugal if two of the following situations comes true: Finland lose to Belgium, Croatia and Scotland draw or Poland fail to beat Sweden.

Even then it would come down to goal difference if Portugal were to lose to France on Wednesday, but they have a positive one now and a narrow defeat may not prevent passage through to the Last 16.

It clouds the approach Portugal may take, although they will finish in the top two of the Group if they can win this game. The World Champions also have plenty of motivation knowing a win will top the section, and with the knowledge that a defeat may force France to need one of the best third place finisher spots and a potentially very difficult Last 16 tie.

The permutations can drive you mad at times, but the feeling is that both of these teams will not want to give too much away. Those permutations will be very clear by kick off, but the two Nations League meetings suggest this will be another tight fixture and I do think goals will be tough to find.

Portugal have looked good going forward, but the 4-2 loss to Germany may have spooked a manager who is more cautious than cavalier, while France have struggled to put a finishing touch to some of their football. Defensively the World Champions have looked pretty solid, and I do think you have to factor in that there have been two goals scored in the last 4 between these nations in normal time.

Backing one of the teams to fail to score is my suggestion, but I do think you should keep a real eye on how the other results are going. It could mean this fixture could potentially open up if news filters through that a team needs to chase a result, but it feels the pressure is all on the Portuguese before kick off regardless.

They showed how vulnerable they can be to the counter attack against Germany and this France team is more than capable of blowing past opponents. However, I think this is a fixture in which the two managers will be looking to set up to prevent the other team from picking up some steam and so it may be one where there is very little between them.

MY PICKS: Italy Win to Nil @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Turkey-Switzerland Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Netherlands - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ukraine-Austria No Goalscorer @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Belgium - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)

Denmark to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)

Croatia-Scotland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Czech Republic-England Both Teams to Score- NO @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Spain Win to Nil @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Sweden 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)

Germany - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)

Portugal-France Both Teams to Score- NO @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Match Day 2: 5-7, - 3.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 14.75% Yield)

Match Day 1: 7-5, + 3.10 Units (24 Units Staked, + 12.92% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (June 17-22)

It's BACK!

There were times in this long lockdown period when I believed the Premier League may struggle to return to action, but the Bundesliga paved the way for the other top European Leagues to follow suit.

La Liga and Serie A are both due to start either just before the Premier League or on the same weekend as the English Division and it will raise some questions about the premature ending of the French top flight.


Without a doubt things have yet to really improve to pre-Covid levels and there are still far too many people suffering, but the return of football will be a boost for some. I know I've been having some very difficult days with the routine of every day blending into the next, while also losing a very close loved one in a period where it is very difficult to mourn them in the manner they deserve.

I know there are plenty suffering more hardships than myself so this is far from a 'woe is me' post, but we are all going to be dealing with things in different ways. Different things and events affect each of us individually so there is no need to criticise anyone who may look to have it all, but who is suffering mentally from the restrictions we are all dealing with in our every day lives.


I do hope anyone reading this has been coping as well as they can and have been looking after themselves as much as has been possible. Football won't help everyone, the return of sports in general won't be the vaccine to the pandemic we are all coping with, but at least it gives many a chance to focus on something other than what has become the mundane activities of day to day life.


The return of the Premier League also means we have the return of the Official Fantasy Football game and I will have my thoughts on that below.

That follows my opinions on how the first twelve League games will go which can be read before I get into the Fantasy Football opinions and how to play things before the big restart.

I will add my thoughts from the remaining four Premier League games to be played before the next GW on Thursday.


Aston Villa v Sheffield United Pick: The Premier League is BACK!

Not many would have predicted that Aston Villa's 4-0 hammering at the hands of Leicester City in early March would be the last time the Premier League would be in action, but we have all had to come to terms with the pandemic raging across the world.

The governments have yet to gain a complete control of the virus, but Europe has begun to edge towards normality and that means the resumption of Leagues in Germany, Spain, England and Italy.

The two opening games of the Premier League season are games that had to be pushed back due to Aston Villa and Manchester City participating in the League Cup Final.

Opening up the resumption of play is a key game at the top and bottom of the Premier League when Aston Villa host Sheffield United in an empty Villa Park. A win for the hosts will take them out of the bottom three, while a win for the visitors would take them into the top five and I do think it will be important that both teams push forward.

Dean Smith and Chris Wilder both seem very keen on getting going and believe the players are fully behind the restart. There are some unknown factors as we don't know how the empty stands will really affect the players, while the long lay off will have drained some momentum in the legs.

I do think the empty stands won't help those teams who have struggled to defend like Aston Villa have throughout the season. They are not playing a team who have created a lot of chances away from home, but Sheffield United have enough going forward to hurt their hosts who will have had to have a big change in quality to become much tougher to score against.

Aston Villa have posed a greater threat going forward at home though and I do think Sheffield United's underlying stats suggest their lack of goals being conceded is more of a mirage than an indication of how they are playing.

Both teams should have chances to hit the net and the draw is not really a positive result for either considering fixtures that are remaining on the schedule. That should mean both teams are pushing for a win in a game where they should both score and backing at least three goals to be shared out is the play for me.

5 of the last 6 Aston Villa games here in the Premier League have ended with at least three goals shared out. That is not the case in Sheffield United away games, but their last 4 visits to Villa Park have all ended with three or more goals shared out too.

Some potential tiredness in the legs over the ninety minutes may leave more spaces for attackers to exploit and so looking for three or more goals in this one at odds against it the selection.

Manchester City v Arsenal Pick: On the face of things you would think the Arsenal squad has a lot more motivation on the restart of the Premier League than Manchester City.

The hosts are almost guaranteed to finish in the top four and their biggest fight may be making sure they can compete in the Champions League next season by overturning the two year ban handed out by UEFA. There are two chances of Manchester City winning the Premier League this season- fat and no and fat has left the building after losing 2 of their last 4 League games.

However there are two Cup competitions that Manchester City will be keen on securing and Pep Guardiola will want to make sure his players are in peak condition when it comes to the Champions League resumption. That might mean more rotation than you would see normally, but I also think Guardiola will want to make sure key players get enough minutes in the legs to build up to peak fitness.

The returns of Aymeric Laporte and Leroy Sane is a huge boost for the entire squad and I think Manchester City are going to be in good shape to deal with the break in play.

They won't have it all their own way against Arsenal for a couple of reasons- one, The Gunners were in decent enough form under Mikel Arteta, and two, the manager is very much aware of the strengths and weaknesses of this Manchester City squad and has had plenty of time to prepare his team for the fixture.

Unfortunately the defensive issues have yet to clear up if the 2-3 home loss to Brentford in a friendly game is anything to go by. That will always make it very difficult to beat a team like Manchester City and I am not that surprised that Arsenal have lost 6 in a row to this opponent and with all those defeats coming by two or more goals.

Playing in front of empty stands will be difficult for players, but neither squad is that unfamiliar with that feeling.

I do think that ultimately Manchester City have the deeper squad, the better quality and they have enjoyed playing against an Arsenal team that have not defended well enough and lost some of their attacking thrust.

Despite the positive run Arsenal had been on, the underlying stats suggest they are still giving up too many good opportunities. Unlike Everton and West Ham United, I expect Manchester City to be much more ruthless and I think they can win this game by a comfortable margin.

Norwich City v Southampton Pick: Being able to play for their Premier League future on the pitch is about all that Norwich City could hope for as relegation would be a huge blow to the club financially.

Daniel Farke has been working under some restrictions anyway with the season in the top flight a boost to a debt filled club, but a second season in the Premier League could see Norwich City begin to improve their squad. Some key players will be sought after at the end of this campaign, but it is much easier to hold out for the bigger fees if Norwich City are playing in the Premier League in the 2020/21 season.

There is plenty of work to do for Norwich City who are 6 points from safety, but they are going to be hosting three clubs who are currently 14th or lower in the Premier League table. Further home games with Everton and Burnley and a trip to Watford have to be seen as good ones for Norwich City fans, but the importance of this opening fixture against Southampton can't be underestimated.

A win will give Norwich City momentum, but a defeat could be hard to recover from if results go against them over the remainder of the weekend.

They actually go into the fixture as the underdog which says a lot about how well Southampton have played away from St Mary's as they have dragged themselves out of the bottom three. A 7 point gap to 18th placed Bournemouth looks a comfortable one, but Ralph Hasenhuttl will want his team to take a giant step towards safety on Friday.

The Austrian should be confident as Southampton have only won fewer away games in the Premier League than the current top four clubs. That has to be respected, although Southampton have remained an attacking threat with defensive vulnerabilities under Hasenhuttl.

Southampton have scored in all but one of their last 17 away games in all competitions, while they have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 7 on their travels. That will be challenged by a Norwich City team who have shown a bit more stubbornness at home compared to earlier in the season, but Southampton have to be confident of scoring here.

On the other hand The Saints have 2 clean sheets in their last 13 away games in all competitions. They went into the suspension having conceded at least three times in 3 away games in a row, and Norwich City have scored in 7 of their last 8 at home.

Unsurprisingly the layers have offered short odds on both teams scoring, but I don't think a 1-1 result will be accepted by either. It would suit Southampton more, but they have shown an attacking spirit under Ralph Hasenhuttl, while Norwich City should be looking to win games like this if they are going to avoid relegation.

Defensive mistakes have been something both clubs have struggled to avoid and the setting of playing behind closed doors might mean those at the back are perhaps not as concentrated as they should be.

Backign at least three goals to be shared out in this fixture like there were at St Mary's in the reverse fixture is the selection.

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: If this fixture had been played back in March as scheduled I think there would have been a lot of people comfortably backing the in-form visitors against an injury hit host.

Tottenham Hotspur had been conceding far too many goals and not scoring enough in the absence of key players like Son Heung-Min and Harry Kane. Jose Mourinho had overseen a limp exit from the Champions League and FA Cup, while Tottenham Hotspur were set for their lowest finish in ten years when ending the campaign in 8th place.

The suspension of play means those key players are back and a much stronger squad will also have benefited from working under Mourinho in what can only be described as a 'mini pre season'. It is an ageing squad in areas, but I would think Tottenham Hotspur will be improved coming out of the break and having a fuller squad also means they are in a position where they will believe they can bridge the gap to the top four.

This is a key fixture for Spurs- win and the Champions League race is on, but a defeat would leave them scrambling for a place in Europe let alone the premier competition.

Being at home will help against a Manchester United team who have been inconsistent on their travels all season. However they have played pretty well against the better teams in the Division and Manchester United looked to have found a groove before the suspension of play.

Like Tottenham Hotspur, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be boosted by the return of key players and both Paul Pogba and Marcus Rashford look like they will be able to earn starts. Both impressed in friendly games and Solskjaer insists his team are ready to go on the resumption of play with winning silverware and a return to the Champions League the ambitions to fulfil.

Back in March I would really fancy United to win here, but I am a touch surprised they are clear favourites to win in an area of North London where they have not had a lot of recent success. Jose Mourinho should be well prepared to set his team up to take on Manchester United and Spurs have been bolstered by the return of big names.

Manchester United have improved and looked in good shape back in March, but they are still a team who will give up chances and especially away from home. The defensive issues Tottenham Hotspur have had all season are unlikely to have completely cleared up and this is another game where goals look likely.

I can see both teams hitting the net and both managers should be keen on pushing their teams ahead to win this fixture. It was 2-1 earlier this season and the same scoreline would not surprise me with my slight lean going towards Manchester United.

Playing in an empty bowl will be different, but I will back at least three goals to be shared out here.

Watford v Leicester City Pick: Both Watford and Leicester City will be thankful they can complete the Premier League season even though the hosts are in a more precarious position than their visitors.

A curtailment of the season might have suited Watford, but Craig Shakespeare was bullish in looking forward to the return of competitive football. That underlines the kind of attitude Nigel Pearson has instilled in his Watford squad and the enforced break has at least given his players time to return to full fitness.

Poor form would have been a concern with a single win in 8 games in all competitions, but that came in an impressive 3-0 dismantling of then unbeaten Liverpool. Playing at home has been important for Watford under Nigel Pearson and they have won 4 of their last 6 here in the Premier League. The Hornets blew a 2-0 lead over Everton in a 2-3 defeat which would have made the run even more impressive at home and they are not going to be intimidated by any visitor to Vicarage Road.

Anything they can earn from this fixture would be seen as a bonus, but Watford have to believe they can get the better of Leicester City even though The Foxes are chasing a Champions League spot. The home team have won this fixture the last 3 times it has been run at Vicarage Road and Leicester City were not exactly in top form going into the suspension.

Leicester City had lost at Burnley, Aston Villa (in the League Cup Semi Final) and Norwich City in recent away games. They are a team that have not been scoring as many away goals as they would like and Leicester City have failed to score in their last 2 away Premier League games.

Now they have to play at a ground where they have had little recent success and knowing Watford have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 League games here.

I do think the odds for the game have been influenced by the run of away successes layers saw in the Bundesliga on their resumption. Leicester City look far too short to win considering their away form going into the suspension of the Premier League and Watford have played well at Vicarage Road under Nigel Pearson.

With a stronger looking squad than the one he would have called upon back in March, I will look for Pearson to set his team up to earn a positive result here.

Brighton v Arsenal Pick: I am looking forward to seeing how the four teams who have played on Wednesday will cope with the quick turnaround into the next set of fixtures to come this weekend.

It could go either of two ways- one way is that the players will be tired and opponents can take advantage, the other is that the first competitive game will have given the players the chance to shake off some match rustiness and they can kick on from here.

The managers will be hoping it is the second route their teams will take and Mikel Arteta will be looking for a big response from his Arsenal team who were beaten 3-0 at Manchester City. It was a difficult day all around for Arteta who lost two players to injury and another to suspension in a game Arsenal had started brightly, but were quickly dimmed by the hosts.

Now they have to get ready to take on something of a bogey team having not won any of their last 4 against Brighton and losing 2 of those games.

Back in March Brighton looked to be slipping into the bottom three as they had failed to win any of 10 games and also gone down to a 0-1 defeat to Crystal Palace in the last game here. Brighton had been unbeaten in 4 at home prior to that including 3 straight 1-1 draws, but Graham Potter knows his team need to turn a few of those draws into wins if they are going to avoid relegation.

The fixture list looks difficult over the last nine games for Brighton so this one looks very important. In the next six, Brighton face four of the current top five and an away game at Norwich City so Graham Potter will be looking for a big performance out of the gate.

His team have actually played pretty well going forward through the season, although the defensive record is something that Arsenal will feel they can take advantage of.

Both teams have scored the last 4 times these two teams have played each other and I do think Brighton will be able to create chances against this Arsenal defence missing key performers. Arsenal should be better going forward against a Brighton team who have conceded plenty of chances and I think this is a game where we will see at least three goals.

1-1 is perhaps the most dangerous scoreline against the selection, but that isn't a result that suits either party and so another 2-1 either way looks the most likely outcome.

West Ham United v Wolves Pick: This looks to be a big opening game for both West Ham United and Wolves on the restart of the Premier League and has implications at both the top and bottom of the table.

West Ham United were not in the best of form when the Premier League was suspended, but they did score three times in back to back games at the London Stadium. Only the continued poor defensive performances prevented West Ham United from winning both fixtures, but David Moyes has been given some unexpected time to turn things around for the team.

Playing in front of an empty London Stadium could be a benefit for West Ham United considering the irritation the fans feel towards the board. With a struggling team the last thing needed is the fans turning the atmosphere toxic and in that sense West Ham United might be able to perform with some freedom.

They are facing a Wolves team who have a real ambition of playing in the Champions League and who will be looking to put the pressure on Chelsea by winning twenty-four hours before the latter kick off for the first time since March. Throughout their time in the Premier League under Nuno Espirito Santo, Wolves have been a team who can beat any other on their best day, although they are perhaps still missing a touch of consistency in turning draws into wins.

Along with Arsenal, Wolves have the most draws in the Premier League as they perhaps struggle to score enough goals. However that was not the case in recent away games in the Premier League having scored three times at Southampton and Tottenham Hotspur, and Wolves have scored in 11 of 13 away Premier League games.

The Hammers have one clean sheet in their last 12 games at home in all competitions so it would be a surprise if Wolves don't score here considering they have won 3 in a row against West Ham United since returning to the top flight. In the same token, West Ham United have scored in 12 of 13 home Premier League games and Wolves have a single clean sheet in 10 away League games.

West Ham United have not scored in 3 games against Wolves, but they look to have a fit squad and should have chances to snap that run here. David Moyes has had time to work on the defensive side, but Wolves do create chances too and I do think both teams will hit the back of the net.

Bournemouth v Crystal Palace Pick: In all honesty it would be a surprise if Crystal Palace are dragged back into the relegation battle having moved onto 39 points off the back of 3 consecutive Premier League wins before the suspension of play.

Roy Hodgson would love to get over the 40 point mark as soon as this weekend, but it is an absolutely massive game for Bournemouth as they look to climb out of the relegation zone.

Both teams have difficult League games to negotiate before the end of the season, but the importance for Bournemouth can not be underestimated. Eddie Howe's men were performing well at the Vitality Stadium when the Premier League was suspended and they do have a much stronger looking squad available to select from this weekend which will give them confidence.

Bournemouth will hope to pick up momentum immediately and they have been scoring goals at home which will further than confidence. They have scored at least twice in 3 consecutive League games here and Eddie Howe is hoping that his team will be stronger defensively with reinforcements returning that wouldn't have been available back in March.

They are facing a stubborn Crystal Palace team who showed their resiliency and experience in winning 3 games in a row by the same 1-0 scoreline. All of those teams beaten are below The Eagles in the standings and Roy Hodgson will be expecting his fully fit squad to head to the south coast and look to pick up from where they left off.

This is a team who play counter attacking football which works well away from home and Crystal Palace have scored in 5 away Premier League games in a row. Before the clean sheet at Brighton, Crystal Palace had conceded 5 away League games in a row too and I do think the two teams will perhaps offer up a more entertaining Premier League game for the fans to enjoy than it would seem on paper.

It is a fixture that will be played on national, free to air television, the first time a Premier League fixture has been broadcasted in such a way. Ratings should be high enough with that in mind and both Bournemouth and Crystal Palace can hit the back of the net in this one.

Newcastle United v Sheffield United Pick: The mistake made by the technology cost Sheffield United two points on Wednesday and that could be huge over the coming weeks as Chris Wilder's men chase a first ever European campaign.

Wilder will be looking to keep the spirits up in the squad with some big things to achieve over the coming weeks and the game in the legs might aid Sheffield United this weekend.

It has to be part of the reason The Blades are favourites to win at St James' Park especially when you think of how stubborn Newcastle United were in the lead up to the suspension of play. Steve Bruce will be boosted by the return to fitness of the majority of the squad and his team have had 4 clean sheets in a row at home which suggests they could be difficult to beat.

Form isn't really relevant with the three month break between games, but Newcastle United were playing pretty well in friendly games as they prepared for the restart.

Both of these teams have shown they can be well organised without offering a really consistent attacking threat. That has shown in the results and the lack of goals scored in their home/away games respectively, something the layers are very much on top of.

The last 3 games here finished goalless and I do think one of the teams will likely fail to find the net in this one. Again the 1-1 could be the problem score, but Newcastle United have had 4 clean sheets in a row at home and Sheffield United have 3 clean sheets in their last 4 away from home in all competitions including in the goalless draw with Aston Villa on Wednesday.

At the prices I think backing one or both to fail to hit the net is reasonable.

Aston Villa v Chelsea Pick: It was largely a much improved performance from Aston Villa on Wednesday compared to how they were playing going into the suspension of football back in March. However the goalless draw with Sheffield United is a game in which Dean Smith expected a bit more from his team and Aston Villa also needed a huge slice of luck to keep a clean sheet.

For the majority of the game they did defend better than they have through the course of the season, but playing this Chelsea team is a different test to Sheffield United. While The Blades have scored 13 away goals, Chelsea have scored 29 and the squad looks in good shape to chase a Champions League spot on the resumption of play.

Frank Lampard's men have the advantage in the race for a top four place, but there is work to do for a club that have made some big moves in the transfer market already. The likes of Hakim Ziyech and Timo Werner are going to offer a lot more attacking options for the team so the current faces in the squad will be looking to show Lampard what they are going to be able to offer in the coming years.

Chelsea had been in decent form going into the suspension and looked very good in crushing Queens Park Rangers in a friendly game. That doesn't make up for competitive action, but Chelsea do play with some freedom under Frank Lampard and they should challenge an Aston Villa defence that had a surprisingly easy day for much of Wednesday.

At the same time Chelsea have not been convincing defensively and that should encourage Aston Villa to try and get forward. They created the better chances against Sheffield United, although the lack of a real goalscorer might prove costly when the season draws to a close.

I do think Aston Villa can cause problems though and that makes Chelsea look plenty short to win this one. A more open game is expected than the one we saw between Villa and Sheffield United and much of that will be down to the approach Chelsea take to fixtures.

3 of the last 5 Chelsea away games in the Premier League have ended with three or more goals shared out. While there wasn't much goal mouth action here on Wednesday, I do think that will change on Sunday and will look for plenty of goals to be the outcome of this one.

Everton v Liverpool Pick: There were suggestions that the third Merseyside derby of the 2019/20 season would have to be played away from Liverpool, but Goodison Park has been confirmed as the venue.

This has been a ground on which Liverpool have not tasted defeat for some time, but 6 of the last 7 at Goodison Park have ended in draws. A win might be enough for Liverpool to win the title on Sunday if Manchester City have lost to Arsenal on the opening day of the resumption of the Premier League, but Everton have played well under Carlo Ancelotti and will believe they can extend the wait for a few more days.

The 4-0 loss at Stamford Bridge would have sapped some confidence, but Everton have largely played well under Ancelotti. At home they have been particularly strong and only a slight bit of misfortune has prevented Everton from putting a run of 5 consecutive wins together prior to the suspension of play.

That suspension might be good news for Liverpool who had been running on fumes before it came about. While they were very unlikely to blow the huge lead in the Premier League, Liverpool did exit the Champions League and the FA Cup and they had also seen their unbeaten run in the Premier League come to an end at Watford.

Liverpool have lost 3 away games in a row in all competitions and they did not score in any of those fixtures at Atletico Madrid, Chelsea and Watford. The players should have had time to just recharge the batteries for the final run in though and that makes them dangerous, even if Liverpool are perhaps not as strong as their overall points tally would suggest.

Beating Everton here won't be easy if the home team are able to pick up from where they left off in the 1-1 draw against Manchester United. The hammering at Stamford Bridge was as poor a performance as Everton have had under Carlo Ancelotti, but I think there will be a big reaction out of the suspension.

I was intrigued with the prices for under 2.5 goals and backing one or both teams to fail to score- both are strong odds against shots.

The last 5 at Goodison Park have all ended with less than three goals shared out and both teams have scored in only one of those fixtures.

Everton have also proven to be a stubborn team for their local rivals to get the better of and having the chance to back the home team on the Asian Handicap with a full goal start looks the best play. A narrow defeat returns the stake, while the performances under Carlo Ancelotti could see Everton help snap the recent trend of low-scoring Merseyside derbies at this ground.

The home team should be ready to give a huge effort to stop Liverpool celebrating at their expense, although the absence of fans is a blow to the home team. Even then I will back Everton with the full goal start on the Asian Handicap here.

Manchester City v Burnley Pick: This has been a bad match up for a number of clubs in the Premier League, but Burnley have really struggled to cope with Manchester City since Pep Guardiola took over at the Etihad Stadium.

Burnley have been outscored 19-2 in 5 meetings here and were beaten 1-4 at home earlier this season. The three month lay off might have just slowed Manchester City and Guardiola has been concerned about the fitness levels, but they seemed to shake off any rust by impressively dismissing Arsenal on Wednesday.

Even in the best of times this would be a difficult test for Burnley, but you do have to wonder if they will just lose some defensive discipline in their first game back. They will be worked by Manchester City and that can tire out any legs looking to build up fitness, and even the changes that are likely to be made by Guardiola are unlikely to weaken this team significantly.

This has been a very good season for Burnley who look set for a fifth consecutive season the top flight. It will be their longest streak in the top flight since twenty-four seasons came to an end in the early 1970s and all credit has to be given to Sean Dyche.

That credit won't be dismissed regardless of how this tough game goes and Burnley will know anything they can get out of this one is a bonus. Without Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood those chances are harder to envision and even scoring here will be difficult if Manchester City control the game as well as they did against Arsenal.

The home team should win and I imagine that comes with a clean sheet too.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa-Sheffield United Over 2.5 Goals

Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap

Norwich City-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals

Watford + 0.5 Asian Handicap

West Ham United-Wolves Both Teams to Score

Bournemouth-Crystal Palace Both Teams to Score

Everton + 1 Asian Handicap

Brighton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals

Newcastle United-Sheffield United Both Teams to Score- NO

Aston Villa-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals

Manchester City Win to Nil

Fantasy Football GameWeek 30+

The Official Fantasy Football game is back and there is no doubt that we are all going to be facing unprecedented times.

When the game came to an end three months ago I was positioning my team to make full use of the three Chips I had including the 'Triple Captain', and I had been focusing on what was likely to be at least two DGWs and potentially the extremely rare TGW for one team.

Things have changed significantly not only in our general lives but how I am going to approach the remainder of the season.

I have the three Chips as well as a WC to use, but effectively we are all going into GW30+ with an additional WC.

There are going to be different options depending on how many Chips you have left, but for someone in my position I can only really see one way to approach the next few weeks to close the season.

First off I am planning on building a team that will be loaded with those players involved in the DGW that is going to open the restart- those four teams Aston Villa, Sheffield United, Manchester City and Arsenal are effectively the only teams that will have DGWs through the remainder of the season barring something unexpected happening (rain outs, a Covid crisis affecting one or two clubs).

While we have all realised that life is precarious over the last three months, I have to play the game in the belief that things will go as smoothly as possible over the next few weeks.

That effectively means I can't see a better time to play my TC Chip even though there is always a possibility for another DGW to come around. The only concern with the use of five substitutions is that we won't get a full amount out of our TC as we might have done when the season was being played without the cloud of a pandemic hanging over teams.

The best play still looks to be a player from Manchester City who play both Arsenal and Burnley in this GW- they do play Burnley on Monday and then have to travel to Stamford Bridge on Thursday, and Manchester City arguably have the most attacking options in the Premier League that has only been bolstered by the return of Leroy Sane.

Even those concerns have to be put to the back of the mind- my personal opinion is not to use Sergio Aguero because I do think Gabriel Jesus will get his chance. With that in mind, I do like Kevin De Bruyne who should be given plenty of minutes over those two games, while I am looking at another couple of options in the midfield.

With the TC being used in GW30+, I am focusing on building an eleven or twelve team squad knowing I will be looking to use my WC or FH immediately afterwards. The most likely approach will be to play my WC in GW31+ and that will mean picking a GW in which I am going to use my FH.

The Bench Boost Chip is most likely going to be played by most in this upcoming GW, but it is largely by those who have already used the Triple Captain and will be maximising their Chip. That is not something I can do with the TC in mind, but I do think there are a couple of GWs that look like they could be productive for a deeper squad than the one I will go with to open the restart.

In GW30+ I am going to load up my squad with those that are playing twice over the next few days, although it is hard to know what the new rules regarding five substitutions are going to do. The deeper squads are perhaps going to be harder to judge, namely Manchester City this week, but the need to get minutes into the legs should mean the big names are out there.

The fact Manchester City are playing twice at home means it is easy to pick three of their players in the GW30+ squad and I also think it is a comfortable decision to do the same with Sheffield United despite playing away both times.

I think Aston Villa can at least push The Blades and have some momentum to take into their second game with Chelsea at Villa Park on Sunday, while the Arsenal options are perhaps hardest to select. An away game at Brighton looks winnable, but Arsenal have not travelled well this season and the game at Manchester City won't be easy.

Even then the potential of the DGW can't be ignored and so an eleven made up of the four teams looks the best way to go in GW30+ with the WC or FH to be used in GW31+.

That is something I will think about over the next few days, but for this week you can see my squad as it is (barring some late changes which are always a potential coming up to the 6pm deadline).

GK: Ederson (Man City), David Martin (West Ham United)

DEF: Enda Stevens (Sheffield United), John Egan (Sheffield United), Sokratis (Arsenal), Willy Boly (Wolves), Kayne Ramsey (Southampton)

MID: Kevin De Bruyne (Man City), Raheem Sterling (Man City), Jack Grealish (Aston Villa), Pepe (Arsenal), Todd Cantwell (Norwich City)

FWD: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal), Oliver McBurnie (Sheffield United), Mbwana Samatta (Aston Villa).

Good luck to all on the resumption of play and let's hope people are keeping safe and there is a strong un to end the Fantasy game for the 2019/20 season.