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Showing posts with label June 21st. Show all posts
Showing posts with label June 21st. Show all posts

Tuesday, 21 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 21st)

On a day when 66% of the Picks that were completed returned winners, you should be positive.

But I can't help feel that meat was still left on the table and that can be frustrating when you believe it was a day in which more winners should have been produced.

The Sebastian Korda pick was a bad one, but he has withdrawn from Wimbledon and is clearly not feeling himself.

However, Alison Riske had so many chances to win her match in straight sets and it felt like she was at 0-30 against serve for much of the second set without getting over the line. I truly believe the breaks would have been like London buses (wait for one when two or three come at once), but it was not meant to be.

Later on Taro Daniel reminded me why he is the player I just can't get a read on for love nor money- whenever I back against him he seems to be a pressure point playing demon, which makes me wonder how he continues to flounder outside the top 100 of the World Rankings.

But back him? He will make you regret that too.

His late break after saving break points in multiple service games ensured he covered to end the day at 8-4 rather than 9-3, but I will always appreciate a plus day.

Bad Homburg saw much of their schedule rained out and that meant the Bianca Andreescu pick will be played on Tuesday.


Dan Evans - 2.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Two competent grass court players will be looking to put a solid tournament under their belts before Wimbledon begins and I think this will be a competitive First Round match in Eastbourne.

Dan Evans has won a title on the grass courts this season, albeit at the Challenger level, but was beaten in the First Round in Queens. He looks like he will be Seeded at Wimbledon, and he has the potential to have a solid run at the third Grand Slam of the season.

Matches like this will give us a pretty good indication as to where Dan Evans feels his own game is as he goes up against the veteran Adrian Mannarino. The Frenchman reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch, but he has dropped out of the top 70 of the World Rankings and surprisingly chose to miss out on the Qualifying events at the big grass court tournaments that were played last week.

Adrian Mannarino looks to be a declining force, but had three solid wins in Hertogenbosch which have to be respected. The loss to Daniil Medvedev came in a close match, while Mannarino was perhaps more disappointed with the defeat to Ryan Peniston in Surbiton at the end of May.

Having a lefty serve makes Adrian Mannarino dangerous and he has long been a solid performer on the grass, although his numbers in recent seasons shows the overall decline he is on. Someone like Dan Evans should be a step above him now and the British player also holds a 3-1 head to head advantage, which can help in what are expected to be close matches.

They have split the two previous grass court matches played against one another, although it was Dan Evans who beat Adrian Mannarino when they met at Queens last year. The serve was dominant for Evans on that day and he has held 88% of his service games on the grass courts this season compared with Mannarino's 83% mark.

The last three matches between these opponents have all been won by Dan Evans and he has had a big edge when it comes to the serve in those too. I expect that could be the difference between Evans and Adrian Mannarino in the First Round here too and he can do just enough to edge past this handicap mark set on his way to the Second Round.


Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 games v Pedro Martinez: Two Spaniards who would much prefer to be playing clay court tennis than grass court tennis will be meeting in the First Round in Eastbourne in the final warm up event before Wimbledon.

However, to give both Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Pedro Martinez their credit, both have produced some big results on the grass courts and can have an impact on the surface.

Last week was a disappointment for Pedro Martinez who was beaten early at Queens, but he did reach the Third Round at Wimbledon last season and beat Gael Monfils during that run. I have to respect that, but Pedro Martinez is just 1-4 in grass court matches outside of the two wins at Wimbledon in 2021 and he was well beaten last week.

His opponent hasn't exactly got a grass court record to write home about, but Davidovich Fokina did reach the Quarter Final in London last week.

Being friends does change the dynamic of the match a little bit and I am a little wary of asking one of them to be able to cover a big spread, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina may have a bit more quality with his grass court tennis and that can be key to the outcome of the match.

I expect to see breaks of serve both ways, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina did hold 77% of his service games last week, while Pedro Martinez was put under immense pressure by Francisco Cerundolo in his defeat. I think that could be the case here and Davidovich Fokina can work his way into a position to cover this mark as he moves through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Dan Evans - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ugo Humbert-Thiago Monteiro Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Holger Rune - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-4, + 6.24 Units (24 Units Staked, + 26% Yield)

Wednesday, 17 June 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (June 17-22)

It's BACK!

There were times in this long lockdown period when I believed the Premier League may struggle to return to action, but the Bundesliga paved the way for the other top European Leagues to follow suit.

La Liga and Serie A are both due to start either just before the Premier League or on the same weekend as the English Division and it will raise some questions about the premature ending of the French top flight.


Without a doubt things have yet to really improve to pre-Covid levels and there are still far too many people suffering, but the return of football will be a boost for some. I know I've been having some very difficult days with the routine of every day blending into the next, while also losing a very close loved one in a period where it is very difficult to mourn them in the manner they deserve.

I know there are plenty suffering more hardships than myself so this is far from a 'woe is me' post, but we are all going to be dealing with things in different ways. Different things and events affect each of us individually so there is no need to criticise anyone who may look to have it all, but who is suffering mentally from the restrictions we are all dealing with in our every day lives.


I do hope anyone reading this has been coping as well as they can and have been looking after themselves as much as has been possible. Football won't help everyone, the return of sports in general won't be the vaccine to the pandemic we are all coping with, but at least it gives many a chance to focus on something other than what has become the mundane activities of day to day life.


The return of the Premier League also means we have the return of the Official Fantasy Football game and I will have my thoughts on that below.

That follows my opinions on how the first twelve League games will go which can be read before I get into the Fantasy Football opinions and how to play things before the big restart.

I will add my thoughts from the remaining four Premier League games to be played before the next GW on Thursday.


Aston Villa v Sheffield United PickThe Premier League is BACK!

Not many would have predicted that Aston Villa's 4-0 hammering at the hands of Leicester City in early March would be the last time the Premier League would be in action, but we have all had to come to terms with the pandemic raging across the world.

The governments have yet to gain a complete control of the virus, but Europe has begun to edge towards normality and that means the resumption of Leagues in Germany, Spain, England and Italy.

The two opening games of the Premier League season are games that had to be pushed back due to Aston Villa and Manchester City participating in the League Cup Final.

Opening up the resumption of play is a key game at the top and bottom of the Premier League when Aston Villa host Sheffield United in an empty Villa Park. A win for the hosts will take them out of the bottom three, while a win for the visitors would take them into the top five and I do think it will be important that both teams push forward.

Dean Smith and Chris Wilder both seem very keen on getting going and believe the players are fully behind the restart. There are some unknown factors as we don't know how the empty stands will really affect the players, while the long lay off will have drained some momentum in the legs.

I do think the empty stands won't help those teams who have struggled to defend like Aston Villa have throughout the season. They are not playing a team who have created a lot of chances away from home, but Sheffield United have enough going forward to hurt their hosts who will have had to have a big change in quality to become much tougher to score against.

Aston Villa have posed a greater threat going forward at home though and I do think Sheffield United's underlying stats suggest their lack of goals being conceded is more of a mirage than an indication of how they are playing.

Both teams should have chances to hit the net and the draw is not really a positive result for either considering fixtures that are remaining on the schedule. That should mean both teams are pushing for a win in a game where they should both score and backing at least three goals to be shared out is the play for me.

5 of the last 6 Aston Villa games here in the Premier League have ended with at least three goals shared out. That is not the case in Sheffield United away games, but their last 4 visits to Villa Park have all ended with three or more goals shared out too.

Some potential tiredness in the legs over the ninety minutes may leave more spaces for attackers to exploit and so looking for three or more goals in this one at odds against it the selection.


Manchester City v Arsenal PickOn the face of things you would think the Arsenal squad has a lot more motivation on the restart of the Premier League than Manchester City.

The hosts are almost guaranteed to finish in the top four and their biggest fight may be making sure they can compete in the Champions League next season by overturning the two year ban handed out by UEFA. There are two chances of Manchester City winning the Premier League this season- fat and no and fat has left the building after losing 2 of their last 4 League games.

However there are two Cup competitions that Manchester City will be keen on securing and Pep Guardiola will want to make sure his players are in peak condition when it comes to the Champions League resumption. That might mean more rotation than you would see normally, but I also think Guardiola will want to make sure key players get enough minutes in the legs to build up to peak fitness.

The returns of Aymeric Laporte and Leroy Sane is a huge boost for the entire squad and I think Manchester City are going to be in good shape to deal with the break in play.

They won't have it all their own way against Arsenal for a couple of reasons- one, The Gunners were in decent enough form under Mikel Arteta, and two, the manager is very much aware of the strengths and weaknesses of this Manchester City squad and has had plenty of time to prepare his team for the fixture.

Unfortunately the defensive issues have yet to clear up if the 2-3 home loss to Brentford in a friendly game is anything to go by. That will always make it very difficult to beat a team like Manchester City and I am not that surprised that Arsenal have lost 6 in a row to this opponent and with all those defeats coming by two or more goals.

Playing in front of empty stands will be difficult for players, but neither squad is that unfamiliar with that feeling.

I do think that ultimately Manchester City have the deeper squad, the better quality and they have enjoyed playing against an Arsenal team that have not defended well enough and lost some of their attacking thrust.

Despite the positive run Arsenal had been on, the underlying stats suggest they are still giving up too many good opportunities. Unlike Everton and West Ham United, I expect Manchester City to be much more ruthless and I think they can win this game by a comfortable margin.


Norwich City v Southampton PickBeing able to play for their Premier League future on the pitch is about all that Norwich City could hope for as relegation would be a huge blow to the club financially.

Daniel Farke has been working under some restrictions anyway with the season in the top flight a boost to a debt filled club, but a second season in the Premier League could see Norwich City begin to improve their squad. Some key players will be sought after at the end of this campaign, but it is much easier to hold out for the bigger fees if Norwich City are playing in the Premier League in the 2020/21 season.

There is plenty of work to do for Norwich City who are 6 points from safety, but they are going to be hosting three clubs who are currently 14th or lower in the Premier League table. Further home games with Everton and Burnley and a trip to Watford have to be seen as good ones for Norwich City fans, but the importance of this opening fixture against Southampton can't be underestimated.

A win will give Norwich City momentum, but a defeat could be hard to recover from if results go against them over the remainder of the weekend.

They actually go into the fixture as the underdog which says a lot about how well Southampton have played away from St Mary's as they have dragged themselves out of the bottom three. A 7 point gap to 18th placed Bournemouth looks a comfortable one, but Ralph Hasenhuttl will want his team to take a giant step towards safety on Friday.

The Austrian should be confident as Southampton have only won fewer away games in the Premier League than the current top four clubs. That has to be respected, although Southampton have remained an attacking threat with defensive vulnerabilities under Hasenhuttl.

Southampton have scored in all but one of their last 17 away games in all competitions, while they have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 7 on their travels. That will be challenged by a Norwich City team who have shown a bit more stubbornness at home compared to earlier in the season, but Southampton have to be confident of scoring here.

On the other hand The Saints have 2 clean sheets in their last 13 away games in all competitions. They went into the suspension having conceded at least three times in 3 away games in a row, and Norwich City have scored in 7 of their last 8 at home.

Unsurprisingly the layers have offered short odds on both teams scoring, but I don't think a 1-1 result will be accepted by either. It would suit Southampton more, but they have shown an attacking spirit under Ralph Hasenhuttl, while Norwich City should be looking to win games like this if they are going to avoid relegation.

Defensive mistakes have been something both clubs have struggled to avoid and the setting of playing behind closed doors might mean those at the back are perhaps not as concentrated as they should be.

Backign at least three goals to be shared out in this fixture like there were at St Mary's in the reverse fixture is the selection.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United PickIf this fixture had been played back in March as scheduled I think there would have been a lot of people comfortably backing the in-form visitors against an injury hit host.

Tottenham Hotspur had been conceding far too many goals and not scoring enough in the absence of key players like Son Heung-Min and Harry Kane. Jose Mourinho had overseen a limp exit from the Champions League and FA Cup, while Tottenham Hotspur were set for their lowest finish in ten years when ending the campaign in 8th place.

The suspension of play means those key players are back and a much stronger squad will also have benefited from working under Mourinho in what can only be described as a 'mini pre season'. It is an ageing squad in areas, but I would think Tottenham Hotspur will be improved coming out of the break and having a fuller squad also means they are in a position where they will believe they can bridge the gap to the top four.

This is a key fixture for Spurs- win and the Champions League race is on, but a defeat would leave them scrambling for a place in Europe let alone the premier competition.

Being at home will help against a Manchester United team who have been inconsistent on their travels all season. However they have played pretty well against the better teams in the Division and Manchester United looked to have found a groove before the suspension of play.

Like Tottenham Hotspur, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be boosted by the return of key players and both Paul Pogba and Marcus Rashford look like they will be able to earn starts. Both impressed in friendly games and Solskjaer insists his team are ready to go on the resumption of play with winning silverware and a return to the Champions League the ambitions to fulfil.

Back in March I would really fancy United to win here, but I am a touch surprised they are clear favourites to win in an area of North London where they have not had a lot of recent success. Jose Mourinho should be well prepared to set his team up to take on Manchester United and Spurs have been bolstered by the return of big names.

Manchester United have improved and looked in good shape back in March, but they are still a team who will give up chances and especially away from home. The defensive issues Tottenham Hotspur have had all season are unlikely to have completely cleared up and this is another game where goals look likely.

I can see both teams hitting the net and both managers should be keen on pushing their teams ahead to win this fixture. It was 2-1 earlier this season and the same scoreline would not surprise me with my slight lean going towards Manchester United.

Playing in an empty bowl will be different, but I will back at least three goals to be shared out here.


Watford v Leicester City PickBoth Watford and Leicester City will be thankful they can complete the Premier League season even though the hosts are in a more precarious position than their visitors.

A curtailment of the season might have suited Watford, but Craig Shakespeare was bullish in looking forward to the return of competitive football. That underlines the kind of attitude Nigel Pearson has instilled in his Watford squad and the enforced break has at least given his players time to return to full fitness.

Poor form would have been a concern with a single win in 8 games in all competitions, but that came in an impressive 3-0 dismantling of then unbeaten Liverpool. Playing at home has been important for Watford under Nigel Pearson and they have won 4 of their last 6 here in the Premier League. The Hornets blew a 2-0 lead over Everton in a 2-3 defeat which would have made the run even more impressive at home and they are not going to be intimidated by any visitor to Vicarage Road.

Anything they can earn from this fixture would be seen as a bonus, but Watford have to believe they can get the better of Leicester City even though The Foxes are chasing a Champions League spot. The home team have won this fixture the last 3 times it has been run at Vicarage Road and Leicester City were not exactly in top form going into the suspension.

Leicester City had lost at Burnley, Aston Villa (in the League Cup Semi Final) and Norwich City in recent away games. They are a team that have not been scoring as many away goals as they would like and Leicester City have failed to score in their last 2 away Premier League games.

Now they have to play at a ground where they have had little recent success and knowing Watford have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 League games here.

I do think the odds for the game have been influenced by the run of away successes layers saw in the Bundesliga on their resumption. Leicester City look far too short to win considering their away form going into the suspension of the Premier League and Watford have played well at Vicarage Road under Nigel Pearson.

With a stronger looking squad than the one he would have called upon back in March, I will look for Pearson to set his team up to earn a positive result here.


Brighton v Arsenal PickI am looking forward to seeing how the four teams who have played on Wednesday will cope with the quick turnaround into the next set of fixtures to come this weekend.

It could go either of two ways- one way is that the players will be tired and opponents can take advantage, the other is that the first competitive game will have given the players the chance to shake off some match rustiness and they can kick on from here.

The managers will be hoping it is the second route their teams will take and Mikel Arteta will be looking for a big response from his Arsenal team who were beaten 3-0 at Manchester City. It was a difficult day all around for Arteta who lost two players to injury and another to suspension in a game Arsenal had started brightly, but were quickly dimmed by the hosts.

Now they have to get ready to take on something of a bogey team having not won any of their last 4 against Brighton and losing 2 of those games.

Back in March Brighton looked to be slipping into the bottom three as they had failed to win any of 10 games and also gone down to a 0-1 defeat to Crystal Palace in the last game here. Brighton had been unbeaten in 4 at home prior to that including 3 straight 1-1 draws, but Graham Potter knows his team need to turn a few of those draws into wins if they are going to avoid relegation.

The fixture list looks difficult over the last nine games for Brighton so this one looks very important. In the next six, Brighton face four of the current top five and an away game at Norwich City so Graham Potter will be looking for a big performance out of the gate.

His team have actually played pretty well going forward through the season, although the defensive record is something that Arsenal will feel they can take advantage of.

Both teams have scored the last 4 times these two teams have played each other and I do think Brighton will be able to create chances against this Arsenal defence missing key performers. Arsenal should be better going forward against a Brighton team who have conceded plenty of chances and I think this is a game where we will see at least three goals.

1-1 is perhaps the most dangerous scoreline against the selection, but that isn't a result that suits either party and so another 2-1 either way looks the most likely outcome.


West Ham United v Wolves PickThis looks to be a big opening game for both West Ham United and Wolves on the restart of the Premier League and has implications at both the top and bottom of the table.

West Ham United were not in the best of form when the Premier League was suspended, but they did score three times in back to back games at the London Stadium. Only the continued poor defensive performances prevented West Ham United from winning both fixtures, but David Moyes has been given some unexpected time to turn things around for the team.

Playing in front of an empty London Stadium could be a benefit for West Ham United considering the irritation the fans feel towards the board. With a struggling team the last thing needed is the fans turning the atmosphere toxic and in that sense West Ham United might be able to perform with some freedom.

They are facing a Wolves team who have a real ambition of playing in the Champions League and who will be looking to put the pressure on Chelsea by winning twenty-four hours before the latter kick off for the first time since March. Throughout their time in the Premier League under Nuno Espirito Santo, Wolves have been a team who can beat any other on their best day, although they are perhaps still missing a touch of consistency in turning draws into wins.

Along with Arsenal, Wolves have the most draws in the Premier League as they perhaps struggle to score enough goals. However that was not the case in recent away games in the Premier League having scored three times at Southampton and Tottenham Hotspur, and Wolves have scored in 11 of 13 away Premier League games.

The Hammers have one clean sheet in their last 12 games at home in all competitions so it would be a surprise if Wolves don't score here considering they have won 3 in a row against West Ham United since returning to the top flight. In the same token, West Ham United have scored in 12 of 13 home Premier League games and Wolves have a single clean sheet in 10 away League games.

West Ham United have not scored in 3 games against Wolves, but they look to have a fit squad and should have chances to snap that run here. David Moyes has had time to work on the defensive side, but Wolves do create chances too and I do think both teams will hit the back of the net.


Bournemouth v Crystal Palace PickIn all honesty it would be a surprise if Crystal Palace are dragged back into the relegation battle having moved onto 39 points off the back of 3 consecutive Premier League wins before the suspension of play.

Roy Hodgson would love to get over the 40 point mark as soon as this weekend, but it is an absolutely massive game for Bournemouth as they look to climb out of the relegation zone.

Both teams have difficult League games to negotiate before the end of the season, but the importance for Bournemouth can not be underestimated. Eddie Howe's men were performing well at the Vitality Stadium when the Premier League was suspended and they do have a much stronger looking squad available to select from this weekend which will give them confidence.

Bournemouth will hope to pick up momentum immediately and they have been scoring goals at home which will further than confidence. They have scored at least twice in 3 consecutive League games here and Eddie Howe is hoping that his team will be stronger defensively with reinforcements returning that wouldn't have been available back in March.

They are facing a stubborn Crystal Palace team who showed their resiliency and experience in winning 3 games in a row by the same 1-0 scoreline. All of those teams beaten are below The Eagles in the standings and Roy Hodgson will be expecting his fully fit squad to head to the south coast and look to pick up from where they left off.

This is a team who play counter attacking football which works well away from home and Crystal Palace have scored in 5 away Premier League games in a row. Before the clean sheet at Brighton, Crystal Palace had conceded 5 away League games in a row too and I do think the two teams will perhaps offer up a more entertaining Premier League game for the fans to enjoy than it would seem on paper.

It is a fixture that will be played on national, free to air television, the first time a Premier League fixture has been broadcasted in such a way. Ratings should be high enough with that in mind and both Bournemouth and Crystal Palace can hit the back of the net in this one.


Newcastle United v Sheffield United PickThe mistake made by the technology cost Sheffield United two points on Wednesday and that could be huge over the coming weeks as Chris Wilder's men chase a first ever European campaign.

Wilder will be looking to keep the spirits up in the squad with some big things to achieve over the coming weeks and the game in the legs might aid Sheffield United this weekend.

It has to be part of the reason The Blades are favourites to win at St James' Park especially when you think of how stubborn Newcastle United were in the lead up to the suspension of play. Steve Bruce will be boosted by the return to fitness of the majority of the squad and his team have had 4 clean sheets in a row at home which suggests they could be difficult to beat.

Form isn't really relevant with the three month break between games, but Newcastle United were playing pretty well in friendly games as they prepared for the restart.

Both of these teams have shown they can be well organised without offering a really consistent attacking threat. That has shown in the results and the lack of goals scored in their home/away games respectively, something the layers are very much on top of.

The last 3 games here finished goalless and I do think one of the teams will likely fail to find the net in this one. Again the 1-1 could be the problem score, but Newcastle United have had 4 clean sheets in a row at home and Sheffield United have 3 clean sheets in their last 4 away from home in all competitions including in the goalless draw with Aston Villa on Wednesday.

At the prices I think backing one or both to fail to hit the net is reasonable.


Aston Villa v Chelsea PickIt was largely a much improved performance from Aston Villa on Wednesday compared to how they were playing going into the suspension of football back in March. However the goalless draw with Sheffield United is a game in which Dean Smith expected a bit more from his team and Aston Villa also needed a huge slice of luck to keep a clean sheet.

For the majority of the game they did defend better than they have through the course of the season, but playing this Chelsea team is a different test to Sheffield United. While The Blades have scored 13 away goals, Chelsea have scored 29 and the squad looks in good shape to chase a Champions League spot on the resumption of play.

Frank Lampard's men have the advantage in the race for a top four place, but there is work to do for a club that have made some big moves in the transfer market already. The likes of Hakim Ziyech and Timo Werner are going to offer a lot more attacking options for the team so the current faces in the squad will be looking to show Lampard what they are going to be able to offer in the coming years.

Chelsea had been in decent form going into the suspension and looked very good in crushing Queens Park Rangers in a friendly game. That doesn't make up for competitive action, but Chelsea do play with some freedom under Frank Lampard and they should challenge an Aston Villa defence that had a surprisingly easy day for much of Wednesday.

At the same time Chelsea have not been convincing defensively and that should encourage Aston Villa to try and get forward. They created the better chances against Sheffield United, although the lack of a real goalscorer might prove costly when the season draws to a close.

I do think Aston Villa can cause problems though and that makes Chelsea look plenty short to win this one. A more open game is expected than the one we saw between Villa and Sheffield United and much of that will be down to the approach Chelsea take to fixtures.

3 of the last 5 Chelsea away games in the Premier League have ended with three or more goals shared out. While there wasn't much goal mouth action here on Wednesday, I do think that will change on Sunday and will look for plenty of goals to be the outcome of this one.


Everton v Liverpool PickThere were suggestions that the third Merseyside derby of the 2019/20 season would have to be played away from Liverpool, but Goodison Park has been confirmed as the venue.

This has been a ground on which Liverpool have not tasted defeat for some time, but 6 of the last 7 at Goodison Park have ended in draws. A win might be enough for Liverpool to win the title on Sunday if Manchester City have lost to Arsenal on the opening day of the resumption of the Premier League, but Everton have played well under Carlo Ancelotti and will believe they can extend the wait for a few more days.

The 4-0 loss at Stamford Bridge would have sapped some confidence, but Everton have largely played well under Ancelotti. At home they have been particularly strong and only a slight bit of misfortune has prevented Everton from putting a run of 5 consecutive wins together prior to the suspension of play.

That suspension might be good news for Liverpool who had been running on fumes before it came about. While they were very unlikely to blow the huge lead in the Premier League, Liverpool did exit the Champions League and the FA Cup and they had also seen their unbeaten run in the Premier League come to an end at Watford.

Liverpool have lost 3 away games in a row in all competitions and they did not score in any of those fixtures at Atletico Madrid, Chelsea and Watford. The players should have had time to just recharge the batteries for the final run in though and that makes them dangerous, even if Liverpool are perhaps not as strong as their overall points tally would suggest.

Beating Everton here won't be easy if the home team are able to pick up from where they left off in the 1-1 draw against Manchester United. The hammering at Stamford Bridge was as poor a performance as Everton have had under Carlo Ancelotti, but I think there will be a big reaction out of the suspension.

I was intrigued with the prices for under 2.5 goals and backing one or both teams to fail to score- both are strong odds against shots.

The last 5 at Goodison Park have all ended with less than three goals shared out and both teams have scored in only one of those fixtures.

Everton have also proven to be a stubborn team for their local rivals to get the better of and having the chance to back the home team on the Asian Handicap with a full goal start looks the best play. A narrow defeat returns the stake, while the performances under Carlo Ancelotti could see Everton help snap the recent trend of low-scoring Merseyside derbies at this ground.

The home team should be ready to give a huge effort to stop Liverpool celebrating at their expense, although the absence of fans is a blow to the home team. Even then I will back Everton with the full goal start on the Asian Handicap here.


Manchester City v Burnley PickThis has been a bad match up for a number of clubs in the Premier League, but Burnley have really struggled to cope with Manchester City since Pep Guardiola took over at the Etihad Stadium.

Burnley have been outscored 19-2 in 5 meetings here and were beaten 1-4 at home earlier this season. The three month lay off might have just slowed Manchester City and Guardiola has been concerned about the fitness levels, but they seemed to shake off any rust by impressively dismissing Arsenal on Wednesday.

Even in the best of times this would be a difficult test for Burnley, but you do have to wonder if they will just lose some defensive discipline in their first game back. They will be worked by Manchester City and that can tire out any legs looking to build up fitness, and even the changes that are likely to be made by Guardiola are unlikely to weaken this team significantly.

This has been a very good season for Burnley who look set for a fifth consecutive season the top flight. It will be their longest streak in the top flight since twenty-four seasons came to an end in the early 1970s and all credit has to be given to Sean Dyche.

That credit won't be dismissed regardless of how this tough game goes and Burnley will know anything they can get out of this one is a bonus. Without Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood those chances are harder to envision and even scoring here will be difficult if Manchester City control the game as well as they did against Arsenal.

The home team should win and I imagine that comes with a clean sheet too.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa-Sheffield United Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Norwich City-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals
Watford + 0.5 Asian Handicap
West Ham United-Wolves Both Teams to Score
Bournemouth-Crystal Palace Both Teams to Score
Everton + 1 Asian Handicap
Brighton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals
Newcastle United-Sheffield United Both Teams to Score- NO
Aston Villa-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester City Win to Nil


Fantasy Football GameWeek 30+
The Official Fantasy Football game is back and there is no doubt that we are all going to be facing unprecedented times.

When the game came to an end three months ago I was positioning my team to make full use of the three Chips I had including the 'Triple Captain', and I had been focusing on what was likely to be at least two DGWs and potentially the extremely rare TGW for one team.


Things have changed significantly not only in our general lives but how I am going to approach the remainder of the season.

I have the three Chips as well as a WC to use, but effectively we are all going into GW30+ with an additional WC.

There are going to be different options depending on how many Chips you have left, but for someone in my position I can only really see one way to approach the next few weeks to close the season.


First off I am planning on building a team that will be loaded with those players involved in the DGW that is going to open the restart- those four teams Aston Villa, Sheffield United, Manchester City and Arsenal are effectively the only teams that will have DGWs through the remainder of the season barring something unexpected happening (rain outs, a Covid crisis affecting one or two clubs).

While we have all realised that life is precarious over the last three months, I have to play the game in the belief that things will go as smoothly as possible over the next few weeks.

That effectively means I can't see a better time to play my TC Chip even though there is always a possibility for another DGW to come around. The only concern with the use of five substitutions is that we won't get a full amount out of our TC as we might have done when the season was being played without the cloud of a pandemic hanging over teams.

The best play still looks to be a player from Manchester City who play both Arsenal and Burnley in this GW- they do play Burnley on Monday and then have to travel to Stamford Bridge on Thursday, and Manchester City arguably have the most attacking options in the Premier League that has only been bolstered by the return of Leroy Sane.

Even those concerns have to be put to the back of the mind- my personal opinion is not to use Sergio Aguero because I do think Gabriel Jesus will get his chance. With that in mind, I do like Kevin De Bruyne who should be given plenty of minutes over those two games, while I am looking at another couple of options in the midfield.


With the TC being used in GW30+, I am focusing on building an eleven or twelve team squad knowing I will be looking to use my WC or FH immediately afterwards. The most likely approach will be to play my WC in GW31+ and that will mean picking a GW in which I am going to use my FH.

The Bench Boost Chip is most likely going to be played by most in this upcoming GW, but it is largely by those who have already used the Triple Captain and will be maximising their Chip. That is not something I can do with the TC in mind, but I do think there are a couple of GWs that look like they could be productive for a deeper squad than the one I will go with to open the restart.


In GW30+ I am going to load up my squad with those that are playing twice over the next few days, although it is hard to know what the new rules regarding five substitutions are going to do. The deeper squads are perhaps going to be harder to judge, namely Manchester City this week, but the need to get minutes into the legs should mean the big names are out there.

The fact Manchester City are playing twice at home means it is easy to pick three of their players in the GW30+ squad and I also think it is a comfortable decision to do the same with Sheffield United despite playing away both times.

I think Aston Villa can at least push The Blades and have some momentum to take into their second game with Chelsea at Villa Park on Sunday, while the Arsenal options are perhaps hardest to select. An away game at Brighton looks winnable, but Arsenal have not travelled well this season and the game at Manchester City won't be easy.

Even then the potential of the DGW can't be ignored and so an eleven made up of the four teams looks the best way to go in GW30+ with the WC or FH to be used in GW31+.

That is something I will think about over the next few days, but for this week you can see my squad as it is (barring some late changes which are always a potential coming up to the 6pm deadline).


GK: Ederson (Man City), David Martin (West Ham United)

DEF: Enda Stevens (Sheffield United), John Egan (Sheffield United), Sokratis (Arsenal), Willy Boly (Wolves), Kayne Ramsey (Southampton)

MID: Kevin De Bruyne (Man City), Raheem Sterling (Man City), Jack Grealish (Aston Villa), Pepe (Arsenal), Todd Cantwell (Norwich City)

FWD: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal), Oliver McBurnie (Sheffield United), Mbwana Samatta (Aston Villa).


Good luck to all on the resumption of play and let's hope people are keeping safe and there is a strong un to end the Fantasy game for the 2019/20 season.

Friday, 21 June 2019

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 21st)

Thursday was the poorest day of the week so far as I ended up with my first losing day, but a strong end prevented it being a terrible day.

I have to take some of the blame, I overrated a couple of players I shouldn't have, while I was happy with my selection of Lucas Pouille even though he was beaten in three sets. At the price he was definitely the value play for me and on another day he would have won that match with the opportunities that had come his way at key moments.

On Friday we move onto the Quarter Final Round at the four events being played this week and that means there are sixteen matches to research through. A few of them are already ones in which I won't be making a selection as I don't feel comfortable backing either player, but hopefully I have made the right plays to have another positive day and move the weekly totals back in the right direction.


Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 games v Karen Khachanov: For the second time in two weeks we are going to see Matteo Berrettini and Karen Khachanov face off on the grass courts as they meet in Germany once again. Last week it was Berrettini who won when these two met in the First Round in Stuttgart, but Khachanov has had previous successes in Halle which should give him the belief he can turn things around.

It certainly won't be easy when you think of the confidence with which Berrettini is playing at the moment. He won the title in Stuttgart last week and that has taken him to a career best World Number 22 in the Rankings, and the Italian has shown very little sign that he is ready to give up the momentum he has built up since moving onto the grass.

The serve has been a huge weapon for Berrettini who was broken for the first time in the Second Round win over Andreas Seppi. He actually dropped the first set in that match, but Berrettini is very confident and was a comfortable winner on the day to move through to another Quarter Final.

It now means Berrettini has held almost 99% of the service games he has played on the grass in 2019. This week he has been very strong through the first two Rounds with 79% of points won behind the serve, although Karen Khachanov will certainly feel he can match his opponent in that department.

Karen Khachanov has now held 85% of his service games played on the grass courts in 2019, while he has been strong in Halle where he has held 92% of his service games played thanks to winning 73% of points behind serve. Make no mistake that both players will look to build pressure by running through their service games, but the big difference between them is how effective they have been returning.

Matteo Berrettini has broken in 21% of his return games played and is winning 35% of points against the opponent's serve. At the same time Khachanov is at 16% and 35% respectively and I do think that can make the difference in a match where the prices have been reversed from Stuttgart with Berrettini going in as the slight favourite.

This is going to be the third match between these two in 2019 including the second on the grass courts and it is Berrettini who has been more successful on the return. While he has held serve in 96% of service games played, Khachanov is at 75% and I am going to back the Italian to make it three wins in a row over this opponent whilst also being in a position to cover this number thanks to the superior return ability.


Alexander Zverev - 2.5 games v David Goffin: This should be a very good Quarter Final match to watch with two talented players meeting in Halle on Friday. Alexander Zverev and David Goffin have both spent considerable time in the top ten of the World Rankings, but there have been some doubts with the level both have been producing in recent weeks.

Halle has been a good tournament for both men this week though as they have recorded some strong wins to make their way through to the Quarter Final. That should mean we see two confident players arrive on the court in the second match of the day, although I do think both Zverev and Goffin's confidence will be a little flaky considering the way recent weeks have gone.

We only have a small sample of grass court data and it does have to be said that Goffin's leaps from the page. However a deeper look shows he has won two matches extremely easily which are perhaps skewing how well he is playing, although on the other hand you can't ignore the fact that the Belgian has held 85% of his service games played on the grass over the last two weeks.

David Goffin has been able to back that up with some fine returning and this is a player that has played some solid tennis on the grass throughout his career. That certainly makes him a threat if Alexander Zverev is not at his best, but he continues to get plenty out of his service games and that should put him in a position to at least get on the front foot in rallies.

It will be the best way to try and keep Goffin from getting going on the return, but any second serves are likely being attacked with success.

Alexander Zverev has had his eye in when it comes to the return so far this week to back up the way he has been serving. He has broken in 31% of return games played in his two wins in Halle and I do think this is going to be a match where both players have plenty of break points.

The key could be that Zverev is likely going to be the player who can save a few more of those thanks to a big first serve, but I would not be surprised at all to this match going three sets. In their previous matches we have seen both players produce very similar numbers on the serve and return, but in the last two matches it is Zverev who has dominated the number of break points created.

I do think that will happen in this Quarter Final too and I will back Alexander Zverev to edge this match. Even in a three setter I think he will have every chance to cover the number in this one with an opportunity to win a set with a double break of serve and I will back the home hope to do that.


Stefanos Tsitsipas-Felix Auger-Aliassime over 24.5 games: In the years ahead matches between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Felix Auger-Aliassime could easily be occurring at the business end of Grand Slam tournaments. Both of these very talented players continue to make a big impact on the ATP Tour while developing their games and both have the capabilities to be long-term top ten players once the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer move on.

They meet for the second time in 2019 and this time there is a Semi Final place on the line at the big pre-Wimbledon event held at Queens Club in West London. This tournament has long been a good indicator for success at SW19 and I think both players will be feeling good about their chances of going through to the final four.

I have to be slightly concerned with the amount of tennis both had to play on Thursday- Stefanos Tsitsipas had to come through a long, tough Second Round match after completing his First Round win over Kyle Edmund. It was more difficult for Felix Auger Aliassime who had to play both First and Second Round matches on the same day with almost three and a half hours spent on court.

At 18 years old I would hope the Canadian is able to recover to have a chance to be really competitive in this one. He is also backed up by an impressive serve which has seen Auger-Aliassime hold 94% of his service games played on the grass in 2019 which includes a run to the Final in Stuttgart last week. In the two matches played at Queens Auger-Aliassime has held every service games and has only faced two break points in the tournament.

Things would have been easier for him if Auger-Aliassime had been more effective on the return of serve, but that has not been the case and he has had to battle for his wins. The youngster is winning less than 30% of the return points played on the grass and Auger-Aliassime has broken in 10% of return games played this week.

He won't find it much easier against Stefanos Tsitsipas who has held 85% of his own service games played on the grass. The Greek star has been more effective at returning serve and that suggests the layers have got the right favourite in this match, but Auger-Aliassime crushed Tsitsipas in Indian Wells back in March and I do think this is going to be a close and competitive match.

Both players should have plenty of success when it comes to the serve and I would not be surprised if we get two very competitive sets to start this match. One break for either player may be enough to secure the set, but I also think there is every chance for the players to run through their service games and be forced into tie-breakers to determine sets.

I also wouldn't rule out a third set to decide the winner and I will back this match to produce more games than the total games line set even though it is a very large number. With the two players serving as they are, I can only see a competitive Quarter Final and far closer than the comfortable win Auger-Aliassime had over Tsitsipas in Indian Wells.

MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas-Felix Auger-Aliassime Over 24.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 3.30 William Hill (1 Unit)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 24-11, + 22.06 Units (72 Units Staked, + 30.64% Yield)

Wednesday, 20 June 2018

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 21st)

The Tennis tournaments this week are a little easier to prepare in the middle of the week as far as Tennis Picks are concerned with the Second Round split over two days.

That usually means the markets are out considerably earlier than they would be normally and I have got my Picks prepared before the results from the Wednesday Picks are completed.


Lesia Tsurenko + 2.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: I guess you would have to make Daria Kasatakina favourite for this match because of her overall performances this season, but I have to say the prices don't factor in the poorer record she has on the grass.

Her win in the First Round will have given Kasatkina some confidence, but this is clearly still a learning curve for her and I do think someone like Lesia Tsurenko is comfortable enough on the surface to give the young Russian something to think about.

My concern with backing a small underdog on the WTA Tour is that you can see sets run away from them and then even a deciding set loss is not enough to get within the number. Someone who returns as well as Kasatkina makes me a little more wary when it comes to this pick, but I think Tsurenko should be able to have some joy on the return herself to keep this one close.

I also believe Tsurenko has every chance to win this match outright which makes backing her on the handicap a little more comfortable for me. Tsurenko is a decent grass court player without being a world beater on the surface and I do think she will be able to have her moments in this one which makes the underdog more appealing.

Having the safety of the games behind me when I believe she is capable of winning the match outright helps me get behind Tsurenko in this one as Kasatkina continues to prove to herself that she can play on this surface.


Julien Benneteau v Adrian Mannarino: This is expected to the final season on the Tour as a Singles player for Julien Benneteau but he is making the best of the situation with a strong run here at Queens Club. The Frenchman came through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw and Benneteau had a strong win over Tomas Berdych which will give him confidence as he gets set to face compatriot Adrian Mannarino in the Second Round.

Benneteau has always enjoyed playing on the grass and he has been in good form so far this week although I do wonder if he is playing above the level expected.

In 2017 Benneteau really struggled when it came to holding his serve, but he has been strong on that front in the three matches played to get into the main draw at Queens. However where Benneteau continues to pose a threat is off the return of serve and he will feel he can get the better of Adrian Mannarino despite the grass court pedigree the latter has displayed.

In recent seasons Mannarino has had some strong hold/break percentages on the grass courts although he has had a mixed start to 2018. A loss to Jeremy Chardy and a win over Daniel Evans is not bad form although I do worry about the head to head with the feeling it matters a lot when it comes to matches between French players.

Both players could find themselves under pressure when it comes to the service games and I would not be surprised if we see a number of breaks of serve even in the faster conditions in this part of West London. However I think it is Julien Benneteau playing the slightly better tennis at the moment and the head to head with Mannarino may be enough to make the difference at key moments of the match.

There will be some twists and turns along the way, but I like Julien Benneteau in what is almost a pick 'em contest.


Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: There are signs that Novak Djokovic is getting somewhere near to his best, but I think there is still some way to go for the former World Number 1 to really have the belief in his own game. You got a sense of that when going out of the French Open in disappointing circumstances and immediately questioning whether he will play at Wimbledon in July.

Taking a Wild Card into Queens is a good sign for Djokovic, but in reality he is still very much searching to get comfortable on the court. His numbers have been decent enough throughout 2018, but the aura around him has gone and that means players are less likely to capitulate at his feet if they fall behind in a set.

Novak Djokovic was a dominant winner in the First Round here over John Millman, but the level of competition goes up drastically when going up against Grigor Dimitrov in the Second Round. Dimitrov is a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist and very comfortable on the grass courts, although I am not sure the Bulgarian is feeling his best tennis right now.

Playing someone like Djokovic on this surface should get the adrenaline pumping for Dimitrov but he was struggling for his best in the First Round and really needs to step up his play. An area of concern for Dimitrov fans is the decline in the service numbers on the grass courts in four consecutive years and now coming up a returner as strong as Novak Djokovic can be is going to put the higher Ranked player under some pressure.

Dimitrov should enjoy some success on the return of serve though, even if he is not the best returner on the Tour. That is mainly down to Djokovic still not having full faith in that shot after the wrist issues of twelve months ago, but generally the Serb has been a strong server on the grass courts and even his 80% hold percentage in 2018 is not to be sniffed at.

I think Djokovic has the edge in this match and the head to head only adds to that. While I expect the former World Number 1 to go through some challenging moments in the match, I think Djokovic will have the majority of the break point chances and I will look for Djokovic to win and cover in this big Second Round match.


Matthew Ebden-Philipp Kohlschreiber over 22.5 games: Two players who are very comfortable on the grass courts will meet in the Second Round in Halle and it has all the makings of a match that may need to go the distance to settle it. Philipp Kohlschreiber has not been putting the wins together he would have liked and he won't have nearly the same kind of confidence as Matthew Ebden.

Ebden has reached back to back Semi Finals on the grass courts and that has earned him a Special Entry into the main draw in Halle. He has deserved that, but it also has to be noted that very rarely has Ebden played someone with the quality that Kohlschreiber brings to the court, while he will also have to deal with the spectators who will want the home player to win.

Where Ebden can be confident is the way he has been serving and the 91% hold rate from eleven matches played on the grass over the last couple of weeks has to be respected. The opposition may not have been the best in that run, but Ebden will believe in his serve and he is facing an opponent here who is not exactly the greatest returner on this surface.

You can see that from Kohlschreiber's numbers on the return of serve, but he himself is possessed with a solid serve on the grass courts and I think it will be a challenge for Ebden facing it. Last week Ebden did break the Gilles Muller serve at will on the grass which is a huge achievement, but Kohlschreiber may have a little more all around game which can help him maintain his own strong numbers on the serve.

This has the feeling of a match where one or two breaks of serve will decide it but I won't be surprised to see at least one tie-breaker in this one. With the chances of this one going into a deciding set too I do think the total games can be surpassed although a straight sets win could be a concern if one of these players is not serving as well as expected.

I did also think Matthew Ebden is a big price to win the match considering how well he has been playing and especially returning on the grass courts, but it should be a close match and I will look at the total games line.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Benoit Paire: Whenever you see a spread of this size you have to be a little careful and that is especially so on the grass courts where breaks of serve are not obtained easily.

For all the obvious greatness of Roger Federer, who won yet another grass court title last week in Stuttgart, sometimes you can question the return of serve and whether it will be effective enough to cover this kind of number. In his five wins on grass Federer has broken at just 18% so far this season and his 2017 number of 43.5% is clearly an out-marker compared to his general numbers which have been much more similar to where he is this season.

It will be interesting to see how he copes against Benoit Paire who has had some solid grass court results over the last thirteen months compared to his general feel on this surface. His hold percentage has been markedly improved and that has allowed Paire to free himself up when it comes to the return of serve and the main reason the wins have been put together on this surface.

In usual circumstances I would not hesitate to move on from this match, but Paire has had some issues with Federer in their previous meetings and rarely been competitive. That has to be in his head against an opponent who is the best grass court player in the world at this time and I do think it will give Federer a chance to produce the break points needed to cover this number.

The head to head is 5-0 in favour of Federer and in eleven sets played the Swiss player has only given up four or more games three times. He hasn't dominated Paire completely on the numbers, but Federer fashions his break points and tends to take them against this opponent which may have as much to do with the Frenchman's emotional state at those pressurised moments which can be questioned.

That may be the case when they play in Halle and I think Federer has been serving well enough to have three more breaks of serve than Paire which should be good enough to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Lesia Tsurenko + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Julien Benneteau @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden-Philipp Kohlschreiber Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-7, + 7.58 Units (38 Units Staked, + 19.95% Yield)

Wednesday, 21 June 2017

Tennis Picks 2017 (June 21st)

There always seem to be a number of big upsets at Queens where the big name players make their competitive bow on the grass courts in preparation for Wimbledon. Over the years the top Seeds have regularly been beaten on a surface where there can be slim pickings when it comes to break points and being able to showcase the extra quality the top players have on a quick surface.

It is especially difficult when trying to find your feet on the surface and it proved costly for Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka and Milos Raonic with two of those players going out in big upsets.

That has opened the door for someone to make a real run for this ATP 500 crown and the Ranking points it will bring as well as the prestigious roll of honour a player can join. There are still three former Champions in the draw and so there is no guarantee just yet that a new name may join that list of former Winners.

The other tournaments being played this week also move onto the Second Round on Wednesday, although I have no idea what the organisers of Queens have been thinking. While most organisers will play the top/bottom half of their Second Round matches, Queens have decided to play every other Second Round match meaning we won't have any completed Quarter Final matches until the end of Thursday.

It simply doesn't make a lot of sense to me as those Second Round matches to be played on Thursday means the winners could be at a big disadvantage come Friday, especially if they are involved in a long and arduous battle in that Second Round encounter.

I'll say it again, the organisation of the matches at Queens for Wednesday make very little sense to me.


It was a mixed bag for the tennis picks on Tuesday after a strong start to the day was replaced with some disappointing losses. It perhaps should have been a lot better for the picks, but I still have a chance to put together a strong end to the week and ensure another positive move for the season totals.

On Wednesday there are quite a few matches that have interested me, which surprised considering how many fewer matches there are compared with Tuesday. However that is the way it goes sometimes and those picks are below.


Alexander Zverev - 2.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: This is something like a changing of the guard for German tennis as the veteran who has been their big hope over the years faces the 'Next Gen' star who looks ready to make a real impact on the Tour. Usually you could suggest that Philipp Kohlschreiber's experience on the grass could still give him an edge, but Alexander Zverev was a Finalist in Halle in 2016 and his game is well suited to the surface.

A heavy serve and some really heavy groundstrokes saw Zverev blitz past Paolo Lorenzi in the First Round and the youngster looked very much over his disappointing last couple of tournaments. The French Open was a real blow having won the Rome Masters just a couple of weeks prior to that, while his loss to Gilles Muller in Hertogenbosch last week was a surprise.

However, Muller is capable of taking a racquet out of someone's hand when he is serving to the top of his ability and he did go on to win the title in Hertogenbosch. The three wins Zverev has produced on the grass have all come relatively easily, although Kohlschreiber is better than the likes of Adrian Mannarino, Julien Benneteau and Lorenzi who have been seen off by Zverev.

In saying that, Kohlschreiber is most definitely on the slope downwards in his career and he produces more sloppy games more often these days. While he is still very capable on this surface, Kohlschreiber will be put under pressure by Zverev's big hitting and he will need to serve very, very well if he is going to earn the upset.

I am not sure he can produce the required level for long enough to beat Zverev though and I can see the younger man coming through a tight opener before pulling away in the second set for a 7-6, 6-4 win and another Quarter Final here.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Robin Haase: Getting comfortable on the grass courts is still a work in progress for Dominic Thiem but his title win in Stuttgart which was followed by a Semi Final run here shows he is more than capable on the surface. The Austrian himself admits he is getting mentally more prepared for the way to perform to the best of his ability on the grass and there is a lot to like about his game which should transfer onto this surface.

A solid opening Round win will help Thiem and he is playing an opponent who has had plenty of inconsistent results on the grass over the years.

Robin Haase has a big serve which can be dangerous when he is firing, while a heavy forehand can skid through the grass. The Dutchman is a former Semi Finalist at Hertogenbosch too which suggests he should be respected, but overall Haase has not really performed that well on this surface.

Little mistakes can lead to big problems and Haase is never that far away from producing an error filled game that gift away breaks of serve. While that can be retrievable on other surfaces, it is much more difficult on grass, but Haase remains a danger if Thiem is not quite at his best as he can rattle through service games once he builds a rhythm up.

This is a big number of games being asked of Thiem, but Haase had to show a lot of heart in coming back to beat David Ferrer on Tuesday. That could have sapped some energy in the heat of Halle and I will look for Thiem to cool him down in a 6-3, 6-4 win for a place in the Quarter Final for the second year in a row.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 games v Gilles Muller: This surface is one that is very much suited to Gilles Muller's game and he showed that again by winning the title in Hertogenbosch last week. His serve is a potent weapon and it can be a really difficult for a returner of the standard of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to really get to grips with it.

Muller was serving very well in his First Round win on Tuesday, but he has spent a lot of time on the court over the last week and the accumulated fatigue can play a part in this one. While Muller has given Tsonga some really difficult matches in the past, the feeling is the Frenchman has the levers to force Muller to play enough balls to extract a break or two from his game.

That won't be easy, but Muller did spend a lot longer on the court in the heat of London on Tuesday than he would have liked. He lost a tie-breaker 19-17 which would have seen Muller leave the court after a reasonable time and the little rest between winning the tournament in Hertogenbosch and playing here will be a concern.

Even if his serve is slightly below its best, Muller could be put under pressure by Tsonga who won't give away too much with his own serve. It is important for Tsonga to look after the second serve more effectively than he did in the First Round win over Adrian Mannarino, but his first serve should get plenty of joy from a limited returner like Muller.

I will be looking for the fresher Tsonga to have more pop on his serve for longer than Muller and he can use that to a 7-6, 6-4 win.


Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Julien Benneteau: There are times when you will watch the veteran Julien Benneteau and find him to be irritatingly good on the court. The Frenchman plays with plenty of confidence and belief in his own game and when it is working as well as it can, Benneteau is no easy out for anyone.

He is very comfortable on the grass courts too and Benneteau played well in reaching the Quarter Final last week in Hertogenbosch before coming through the Qualifiers and reaching the Second Round here in Queens. The win over Nicolas Mahut may not be as impressive as it once was and Benneteau won't have faced too many of the standard of Grigor Dimitrov.

Dimitrov may not have reached the levels that some predicted for him, but he is very comfortable on the grass courts and was an unfortunate early loser in Stuttgart last week. He enjoys playing at Queens though and had a very good First Round win, while Dimitrov has been serving and returning effectively in his first two matches back on the grass.

Being a former Champion at Queens will give Dimitrov plenty of belief when playing here, especially with a tournament that looks very open now that some of the top names have exited the event.

I do think Dimitrov will do enough when serving and returning to have the majority of break points in this match and I am expecting him to take the chances when they come his way. Benneteau will offer problems with his slick brand of tennis perfectly suited to the grass, but Dimitrov can work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Denis Shapovalov: For someone who hasn't had a lot of grass court experience, Denis Shapovalov has produced plenty of wins over the last few weeks. The majority of those have come at the Challenger and Qualifier level, but the confidence has grown to the point that Shapovalov was able to beat Kyle Edmund in the First Round here.

To be honest, Edmund is an overrated grass court player anyway and I am not sure Tomas Berdych is going to allow Shapovalov to be able to control the match behind his own serve as much as the Brit did.

The young man did struggle in the return aspect as he might not understand the timing and style of return needed on a court where the ball can fizz through the lines. Someone like Tomas Berdych can make life all the more difficult for Shapovalov with his own serve, although the veteran is definitely not as strong as he once was.

However, I am looking for Berdych's grass court experience to help him get past an opponent who will have confidence from the win in the First Round. Shapovalov will likely find his second serve under more pressure, while I am expecting Berdych to win around 70% of the points behind serve which will make it very difficult for the Canadian to escape the mental pressure of the match.

Shapovalov is very talented and could be a part of the next generation of stars on the Tour, but I think Berdych proves too good at this moment and comes through 7-5, 6-3.


Daria Gavrilova - 1.5 games v Katerina Siniakova: Neither one of these players has a very strong record on the grass courts although I do think Daria Gavrilova has the kind of aggressive game that can be a success on the surface. She had a solid First Round win this week in Birmingham and I am looking for the Australian to have too much for Katerina Siniakova.

The latter has had some success on the surface, but mainly in winning Qualifiers to make the main draw of events, although Siniakova did reach the Third Round at Wimbledon last year.

It has been the toughness of the draws that Gavrilova had in 2016 which prevented her picking up the wins during the grass court season. She was beaten as expected by the likes of Angelique Kerber, Karolina Pliskova and Dominika Cibulkova, but Gavrilova has won the last four matches she has played as the favourite on the grass.

Gavrilova has covered this number three times in those four matches and I think she will have the aggressiveness to keep Siniakova under pressure. I fully expect a number of breaks of serve, but I will look for Gavrilova to win a high percentage of points being played behind Siniakova's second serve and I will look for her to progress in three sets while covering this number.


Lucie Safarova - 2.5 games v Naomi Osaka: There is a lot expected of Naomi Osaka but that can take a toll on a young player and she has struggled for consistency in 2017. She had a very big win in the First Round over Lauren Davis, but the grass courts have not been her favourite surface so far and she has a big challenge in front of her when facing Lucie Safarova.

You have to factor in the fact that Safarova had a really long and gruelling win over Dominika Cibulkova on Tuesday. It was a tough match that went very long and in the heat of the Birmingham day and that has to play a part in this one.

Safarova did also have a strong run to the Semi Final in Nottingham last week, although she had to battle through three sets in her three wins as well as the loss to Donna Vekic. Needing three sets again will have provided some fatigue for Safarova to deal with, but her opponent here only just snapped a long losing run which will have affected the confidence.

Osaka was just 1-3 on the grass before the win over Lauren Davis, who has struggled on the grass herself, and I do think she has to get over her issues on this surface.

Safarova has not won matches easily of late, but I think she will need to get this done in two sets to prevent any tiredness being an issue. She is good enough to do that if she can serve just a little bit more effectively and I like the experience edge she has over Osaka which can help the Czech player move through 6-4, 6-4.


Catherine Bellis - 2.5 games v Mona Barthel: One of the names on the WTA Tour that is going to make a big impact in the years to come is Catherine Bellis barring any unfortunate set of circumstances against her. Her lack of playing time on the grass courts didn't seem to affect the young American when beating Carla Suarez Navarro in the First Round in Mallorca.

Backing that up won't be easy unless Bellis can improve the serve which was broken four times, but there is a reason she is coming in as the favourite against Mona Barthel.

Barthel had a solid win in the First Round herself and is coming off a strong showing during the clay court season, but playing on the grass has been an issue for her. The German simply hasn't had a lot of success on the surface in recent years and was beaten as the favourite last week in Nottingham.

As well as she did in the First Round, Barthel has usually had some issues when it comes to the return of serve on the grass. That might be a problem for her again if Bellis is able to produce the strong returning stats that she is capable of and I am looking for the American to back up a strong win.

I imagine there will be some twists and turns in this one, but I will look for Bellis to come out with a 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 win to move into her first Quarter Final on the grass courts.


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 games v Julia Goerges: This feels like a good looking match on paper and I am expecting plenty of big hitting when both Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Julia Goerges take to the court. The latter had the more impressive First Round win, but Pavlyuchenkova has the stronger grass court pedigree.

I do think that makes a difference in this match with Pavlyuchenkova a Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon last year.

I will admit that I am surprised that Goerges has not had much success on the grass courts when you think of the power and strength she has. The serve isn't bad and I would think the German would be able to impose her game on opponents, although I think the speed in which the ball comes back across the net puts Goerges' timing out of sync.

Goerges had lost seven straight times on the grass before her win over Lara Arruabarrena who has to be considered a clay court specialist. While she had some nice returning stats in the win in the First Round, Goerges has really struggled with that aspect of her game during her run of losses and Pavlyuchenkova has plenty of power to force her backwards in this one too.

The Russian can struggle with her movement, but I think the grass will allow her to avoid getting involved in too many long rallies and ultimately she will prevail in this match. I will be looking for Pavlyuchenkova to come through 6-3, 7-6.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Daria Gavrilova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Catherine Bellis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-6, - 1.78 Units (22 Units Staked, - 8.09% Yield)