Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 19th June)

The majority of the selections made this week have followed the numbers- Joao Fonseca was a touch unfortunate, but Emma Navarro struggled for much of the defeat to Paula Badosa and that was reflected in the final score.

Jack Draper's failure to cover is the exception.

He had four Break Point chances in the first set, but failed to convert and was punished by dropping serve to lose that set 6-3... Even after winning the second set 6-2, Draper could not find a way to cover the handicap mark and it was a match where, once again, the dominant Break Point opportunities did not result in a successful outcome.

At least Alexander Zverev came through his First Round match, even if it was a disappointing day overall.

On Thursday the Quarter Final lineup will be completed at the four tournaments being played this week and so there are plenty of matches to get through with the remainder of the Second Round all to be played.

However, it looks like the research can only identify three selections- one from Nottingham, Halle and Queen's- that can be read below.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Jaume Munar: Back to back Wimbledon titles have been secured and there are no real concerns about the ability of Carlos Alcaraz when it comes to performing on this surface.

He is also a former Champion at Queen's Club in West London and so there were real reasons to consider withdrawing from the tournament and just using a couple of exhibition events to warm up for Wimbledon.

The main reason was recovering from the emotional and physical success in Paris earlier this month- Carlos Alcaraz defended the French Open title by coming from 2-0 down in sets to defeat Jannik Sinner and there was no doubt how much energy that was needed to do that in the manner it happened.

Eventually the decision was made to play at Queen's again, and Carlos Alcaraz made a comfortable start to the tournament with a routine straight sets win over Adam Walton. The scoreboard suggested a close match, but the World Number 2 was in complete control of the contest and he can build on that.

Carlos Alcaraz faces a compatriot in the Second Round and Jaume Munar is one of those Spanish players that has struggled to have an impact on the grass.

Jaume Munar came through the First Round when Jordan Thompson had to withdraw from the match after a single set was completed, but prior to the event, the World Number 59 had a career record of 3-13 when playing on this surface. Suffice to say it is a time of the season when Jaume Munar is not at his best and it will be tough for him to challenge someone of the confidence and quality of Carlos Alcaraz.

It would be a big challenge even on Munar's favoured clay courts, but on this surface it should be a bigger edge with Carlos Alcaraz, who should feel relatively comfortable in the match up.

He should be able to get into the rallies on the return and that should see Carlos Alcaraz exert his qualities over Jaume Munar- as long as Alcaraz serves as well as he can, he should have enough about him to earn the breaks of serve needed to cover what is a pretty big line for a best of three set match on the grass.

Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: Last year was a disappointment for Andrey Rublev as far as the grass courts were concerned, but he was a very confident winner in the First Round. This is a player who has performed pretty well on the grass courts in the past and that crushing win over Sebastian Ofner will only have given Rublev some belief in what has been an inconsistent season.

He is next up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Halle and the World Number 63 is not someone who has a lot of grass court experience or success to call upon. His First Round win over Pedro Martinez, another Spaniard who prefers not to play on this surface, saw Tomas Martin Etcheverry improve his career record to 4-9 on the grass, but Andrey Rublev had double that number of wins in just the 2023 season alone.

An early loss in Hertogenbosch backs up the issues that Tomas Martin Etcheverry has had on the grass, but there has to be some respect for a player who gets plenty out of his serve.

On a surface like this one, serving well can keep a player in any match being played and Martin Etcheverry will certainly look to see how Andrey Rublev handles his own frustrations if the lower Ranked player is able to keep the service games ticking over.

A loss of focus when things are not going his way have held Andrey Rublev back, but he has shown enough patience on a surface like this one to produce some solid returning numbers. The way he dealt with the Sebastian Ofner serve bodes well for Rublev, especially if he can continue to serve at the level he was showing in the First Round.

When these two met on the hard courts in Canada last summer in the build up to the US Open, Andrey Rublev did display that patience to come through a tough first set before moving clear in the second. He may need something similar in this match in Halle, but Andrey Rublev can eventually make his superior grass court qualities display that on the final scoreboard.

Sonay Kartal + 3.5 games v Katie Boulter: All credit has to be given to Sonay Kartal for the year she has put together, which means coming into this tournament as the World Number 50, her career best World Ranking mark. It also means direct entry into the main draw at Wimbledon, where she reached the Third Round last year and the 23 year old will feel there is more to come.

She will certainly want to get up to the kind of level that Katie Boulter has reached as the two British players prepare to face off in the Second Round in Nottingham.

Losing to Amanda Anisimova at Queen's last week will have been a blow for Sonay Kartal, although the form of the American cannot be dismissed. In the same tournament Katie Boulter was not able to build on taking the opening set against Diana Shnaider, but the World Number 39 looked pretty comfortable in her opening win here in Nottingham.

Both are pretty comfortable on the grass courts, which is no surprise, but it has been mentioned before that Katie Boulter has struggled for big wins on the surface.

That is not the case for Sonay Kartal, who beat the World Number 16 last week and who upset a couple of top 50 Ranked players in her run at Wimbledon last year.

Their sole previous match up on the Tour ended in a three set win for Katie Boulter on the grass courts of Surbiton a couple of years ago, but Sonay Kartal was much lower in the World Rankings on that occasion. There is not so much between them now and Sonay Kartal has the grass court qualities to at least keep this one competitive with the games being given to her.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Sonay Kartal + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 1.04 Units (8 Units Staked, + 13% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 18th June)

A couple of rolls of the ball or a mishit here or there may have led to a perfect 5-0 start to the week for the Tennis Picks, but it was not to be for Joao Fonseca, who had late Break Point opportunities to win and cover.

Instead he was beaten in a third set tie-breaker, but Andrey Rublev had already done all that was expected from him earlier in the day in Halle and that has prevented this week having the same slide as last week following a strong start for the selections.

Moving onto Wednesday means more big names are in action and the majority of the tournaments being played will be into Second Round action over the next couple of days. There some First Round matches to clear up in Halle as the organisers gave a couple of Finalists from the end of last week a bit more time to prepare for their event, but in the main it is onto Second Round action in what are the last really big events before the start of Wimbledon a week on Monday.

Emma Navarro v Paula Badosa: Both of these players produced very solid First Round wins in Berlin and previous form on the grass courts should mean Emma Navarro and Paula Badosa are set for decent impacts when Wimbledon gets underway.

The more matches that can be played now could pay off in SW19 and so this is an important Second Round match.

Last week Emma Navarro was beaten at the same stage at Queens Club in London, while Paula Badosa is playing her first grass court event of 2025, and the performances that have been produced in the opening wins should have given each plenty of confidence.

At the same time, both Navarro and Badosa have struggled for some consistency in the last few months and so they will be looking to rebuild some of the lost confidence by having a strong run in Berlin.

Emma Navarro was a Wimbledon Quarter Finalist last year, and that had followed a Semi Final run in Bad Homburg. She has yet to really find the same level on the surface in the opening three matches played, but all three have been against decent players on the Tour and going 2-1 will certainly help the American believe that her tennis is in a good spot.

In the same two events in 2024, Paula Badosa reached the Fourth Round in SW19 and Quarter Final in Bad Homburg, and she looked in strong shape in crushing home hope Eva Lys in the First Round. This is a significant step upwards in terms of a challenge having split two matches with Emma Navarro last year with the Badosa win being on a clay court and the Navarro win coming at the US Open on the hard courts.

Paula Badosa has all of the attributes to be a really strong grass court player- the serve can be a huge weapon and she showed that she can get her teeth into the return last year and in the strong First Round win.

However, that will be tested by Emma Navarro if the World Number 9 is anywhere near her best and the match up with the Spaniard has been one that she has enjoyed.

This has the makings of a close Second Round match between two players separated by one place in the World Rankings and Emma Navarro can secure the upset. It was something of a surprise that she has been set as the pretty strong underdog, and the American can make use of the games being given to her on the handicap.

Jack Draper - 3.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Over the last twelve months, Alexei Popyrin has perhaps picked up a better understanding of playing on the grass courts, although it is still a work in progress. He is going to be Seeded at Wimbledon later this month and Alexei Popyrin has won six of his last ten matches on the surface having gotten the better of compatriot Aleksandar Vukic in the First Round.

That followed an early loss in Hertogenbosch and there is little doubt that Alexei Popyrin is a very dangerous player on this surface as long as he serves as well as he can. Doing that makes it very difficult to get on top of him and Popyrin won a set in a Third Round loss to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon last year, which will have given him a lot of confidence to perform on this surface.

Playing in London means it is tennis season and Alexei Popyrin has had previous experience of facing a British player at Queens Club when losing to Andy Murray in what turned out to be the last Singles win of the latter's very strong career.

This time he has to face the British Number 1, who is also the World Number 6, and Jack Draper has all of the tools needed to be a very successful player on the surface.

He won a title on the grass in Stuttgart last year, but Draper was disappointingly beaten early at Wimbledon and so there has been a tweak of the schedule. This time Jack Draper decided to have some time off before Queens got underway and he was a very strong First Round winner.

Jack Draper's improvement on the Tour has been behind the strong lefty serve, and that is a weapon that is considerably more dangerous on a surface like this one. He should be able to largely contain the Alexei Popyrin threat when he is serving and that should allow Draper the freedom to try and attack the Australian, who has given up seventeen Break Points in two matches played on the grass this month.

When he is serving at his best, Alexei Popyrin can be very difficult to break- he held 89% of his service games on the grass courts in 2024. This is not an easy surface to break serve, but Jack Draper has had some decent numbers on the grass and he can use his own serve to put some scoreboard pressure on the lower Ranked player.

The home player can take some encouragement from the fact he was able to break the Alexei Popyrin twice on the hard courts of Doha earlier this season too and Draper may have enough to cover the spread in this one barring a significant serving improvement from the World Number 21.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Marcos Giron: It was something of a surprise to not see Marcos Giron's name on the draw sheet at either of the two grass court events played last week.

In recent years, the 31 year old has been a comfortable grass court player and he has had some big wins and solid runs on the surface.

He arrives in Halle to face the home favourite, Alexander Zverev, who is also fresh off of reaching the Stuttgart Final before being downed by Taylor Fritz again. This is also a player who has regularly reached the business end at this tournament in the build up to Wimbledon, although Zverev will have plenty of respect for the kind of tennis that Marcos Giron can produce on the grass.

The serve was key for Marcus Giron last year and it helped him win the ATP title in Newport, as well as reaching the Quarter Final here in Halle. During that summer on the grass, Giron was able to take a set from Jack Draper and beat Andrey Rublev, which are impressive performances and his runs were ended by top ten Ranked players here and at Wimbledon.

The second of those defeats was to Alexander Zverev, who dismissed Marcus Giron at SW19 far more easily than anyone could have really imagined.

It is the kind of win that will give Zverev confidence as he heads out onto the court on Wednesday following the loss in Stuttgart on Sunday and the only real concern is whether he is that motivated for another long week with Wimbledon fast approaching. Having those wins in Stuttgart could be a distraction for Alexander Zverev, even if he is going to be well backed by the fans in the stands, although the match up is hard to ignore.

He has won all three previous matches against Marcus Giron and the two wins in 2024 both came in straight sets.

Overall it has been a real challenge for the World Number 41 to get into the Alexander Zverev service games and that has put too much pressure on his own serve.

It should be noted that Alexander Zverev is not the most convincing of return players on the faster surfaces, but he should have enough chances in this First Round match to win and go through with a cover of this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Emma Navarro + 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Jack Draper - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 2.32 Units (5 Units Staked, + 46.40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 13th June)

The French Open frustration was largely built on the fact that too many matches had seen players dominate the Break Points, but find a way to miss out on winning those important points.

It felt like something of a hangover from that when the opening Pick of the week struggled to get over the line, despite having the better of the chances.

However, Diana Shnaider was able to rally together in time to produce the win needed and Elena Rybakina was then able to save some late Break Points to earn another winner.

Emma Raducanu rounded out the day, even after blowing a 5-0 lead in the first set, and that has produced a solid opener to the grass court season.

There is still some work to do to secure a positive return for the week, but that start at least puts a solid foundation to build upon.

Madison Keys - 2.5 games v Diana Shnaider: The opening Quarter Final at Queens looks a very good looking match on Friday and both Madison Keys and Diana Shnaider have had solid victories under their belt over the last few days.

Playing on the grass after a long grass court season can be challenging, but having those matches, and wins, to fall back upon should mean Keys and Shnaider are pretty happy with where they are.

Madison Keys was Seeded through to the Second Round and won her match on Wednesday, which means having had a day of rest ahead of the Quarter Final. That should be a help, while the fact that Diana Shnaider was pushed into a third set in her own Second Round win over Katie Boulter could leave the youngster a little vulnerable.

She has won a title on the grass in 2024 and so Diana Shnaider will enter the court with some confidence.

Serving well is going to be the key for the World Number 12 and the first two matches have shown enough from Diana Shnaider to believe she can give Madison Keys something to think about. Playing the Break Points with a bit more confidence will be important and Diana Shnaider has to be careful that she is not offering up too many looks at her second serve.

There is no doubt that Madison Keys is going to be serving well- this is a big part of her tennis and over the years the serve has been a key weapon for Keys on the grass. She has enjoyed some quality runs at Wimbledon and there is a new confidence around Madison Keys since winning the Australian Open earlier this year.

One of the criticisms of the American has been on the return of serve as Madison Keys has struggled with the balance needed to be really effective on this surface.

However, Keys got her eye in during the Second Round win and she did have too much for Diana Shnaider when they met in Miami in March 2024.

The younger player is much improved fifteen months later, but Madison Keys may just have the grass court know-how to get the better of Diana Shnaider again.

Elena Rybakina - 5.5 games v Tatjana Maria: At 37 years old, you can forgive Tatjana Maria if she is considering ending her time on the Tour at the end of the season, especially having lost more matches than she has won over the last twelve months.

Slipping down the World Rankings and having to Qualify for some of the important events on the Tour may not be something that Tatjana Maria is prepared to do, although her run at Queens will certainly help.

Her run is set to take her back inside the top 80 of the World Rankings, but Maria will be thinking about more than that.

It would mean upsetting a former Wimbledon Champion- Elena Rybakina won the title in 2022, but it was also a memorable tournament for Tatjana Maria who reached the Semi Final and was a set away from beating Ons Jabeur. Four wins here in Queens, including two against top 30 Ranked players, will have given Tatjana Maria confidence and her previous grass exploits deserve respect.

At the same time this is another significant test for the underdog, especially if Elena Rybakina has just found her range back on the grass court.

Only late nerves added some drama to the Second Round win over Heather Watson, but Elena Rybakina was very good on the day and she will have gained plenty from having that grass court match. Her game is tailored to be very effective on this surface and the Quarter Final could follow a similar pattern to the Second Round win.

Elena Rybakina will know there are some improvements to be made- she will need to do better on the second serve and the returning numbers can be improved, but the power in her tennis is hard to ignore.

A tough opening set is to be expected, but Elena Rybakina can find a way to move in front and then perhaps power through the second set, much like she did against Heather Watson.

The only previous match between Elena Rybakina and Tatjana Maria ended with the former coming through 7-5, 6-0 on a hard court at the back end of 2023. This one is unlikely to be as wide as that, but Elena Rybakina could still cover the handicap mark that has been set.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 William Hill (1 Unit)

Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 2.65 Units (3 Units Staked, + 88.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 12th June)

A decision was made partway through the French Open to really take a watching brief after some brutal luck early in the tournament.

Ultimately the feeling was that I had ignored the way the tournament was developing at the Australian Open in 2024 and that set the entirety of the season behind schedule.

With a solid opening to 2025 under the belt, the feeling was that there was some confusion in the selections being made at the French Open and so I did not want to remain on a pathway that was not going to be leading to a positive return. Instead it was better to just take a step back and that proved to be the case with some many of the matches in the second week of the event also seemingly moving against the numbers.

It has been a tough tournament, but in a long season, you have to expect some of the lows although I am always keen to avoid them at Grand Slam events.

The numbers on the tournament were a disappointment, but that was far from the word that would have been used for the Men's Final last Sunday.

Jannik Sinner has to be feeling incredibly sick at blowing the chance to win a third Grand Slam in a row- he was up two sets and a break and then had three consecutive Championship Points in the fourth set, only to be eventually undone in a Champions tie-breaker at the end of the absorbing fifth set.

For fans of the sport who have lived through the Big Four era, it was an incredible Final put together by the two best players on the ATP Tour and you would be hard pressed to find too many people who are not anticipating Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz facing off on Sunday 13th July in the Wimbledon Final.

That Grand Slam Final will sit alongside some of the very best we have seen, but the Women's Final was not as strong in terms of quality, but had plenty of drama attached to it too.

Aryna Sabalenka is a fabulous player, but a late Grand Slam capitulation has become far too familiar for her, her team and her fans and she will head to Wimbledon with all of the attributes to win the title, except perhaps the most important which is the mental strength.

Some will consider that a harsh assessment of a player that has won multiple Grand Slam titles, but these late collapses have prevented the World Number 1 having double the number that is in the trophy cabinet.

The victor, Coco Gauff, has plenty of grass court pedigree of her own so the top two players are expected to be there or thereabouts, even if the Women's Wimbledon tournament has been wide open over recent years. There will be players who feel they can put the tennis together to have a big event when that begins in July and it will be interesting to see how the draw shapes up.

Before the third Grand Slam of the season gets underway, there are three weeks of grass court tournaments in the lead up to Wimbledon.

The short season is still one that some believe should be expanded, but there are a lot of players who cannot stand this time of the year and those are the vulnerable ones you have to look out for.

Form can be determined by results over the remainder of the month, including at the new WTA event being played at Queens this week.

Early matches have really provided a watching brief, although one or two selections came very close to being placed on a thread here.

I have noted that the layers are taking no chances with the total games marks being set for matches in Stuttgart and Hertogenbosch, where the ATP are playing (there is also a WTA event in the latter), and so the main focus for the remainder of this week could be on the WTA events being played, notably that one in West London not far from Wimbledon.

Selections will be made when they are fitting the criteria and the ambition over the last two and a half weeks of June is to build some momentum to take into the third Grand Slam of the season.

Emma Raducanu - 4.5 games v Rebecca Sramkova: Weeks before beginning her memorable run at the US Open, Emma Raducanu really announced herself to the British public by reaching the Fourth Round at Wimbledon.

Two top 50 Ranked players were beaten in that run, including Marketa Vondrousova who would go on to win Wimbledon in 2023, but suffice to say it has been a tough few years for Emma Raducanu who will be playing as the World Number 37 this week.

2022 was just a difficult season overall and 2023 injuries meant missing the grass court season entirely, but the British player is very comfortable on this surface. Last year she displayed that comfort with another Fourth Round run at Wimbledon, while Emma Raducanu also reached a Semi Final and a Quarter Final in warm up events.

A crushing First Round win at the reborn Queens tournament will have served as a reminder and Emma Raducanu deserves her strong favouritism in this match.

Some may disagree when noting that Rebecca Sramkova is only four places below Emma Raducanu in the World Rankings and playing in this Second Round after upsetting Wimbledon Champion Barbora Krejcikova in the First Round, but it should be noted that the latter is not looking like a player that will have another deep run in SW19 as injuries have held her back.

Back in 2016, Rebecca Sramkova did reach the Final of an event played on the grass courts, but at a level far below the WTA Tour... Since then it has been a real struggle for the 28 year old who has a 5-6 record on the grass and shown enough disdain for the surface to only have been involved in matches under the Wimbledon banner before taking part in the tournament here in Queens.

Prior to the win over Krejcikova, Rebecca Sramkova had never beaten a top 100 Ranked player on the grass and this should be a match where Emma Raducanu feels pretty comfortable, especially with the surface having a bit more wear on it.

The Sramkova first serve can be an effective weapon and that deserves some respect, but she is going to have to take risks with it and that means the percentage being made is likely to hover around the 52-55% mark. That should open the door for Emma Raducanu to turn the screw on the return of serve and the British player has been able to produce a 6-2 record on the grass when facing players outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings over the last twelve months.

Her return has not always been the most efficient, but Raducanu had her eye in during the First Round win and can back that up with another strong performance.

Diana Shnaider - 2.5 games v Katie Boulter: A French Open that ended prematurely will have disappointed Diana Shnaider, but the youngster showed some solid grass court qualities last year and may feel she can put together some strong results on this surface again.

The crushing First Round win can only offer the World Number 12 some real confidence to take into this match, which is going to be far from easy against a home player who will have the crowd firmly behind her.

Katie Boulter will still be hoping she can earn a Seed for Wimbledon and she is the current World Number 34, while in recent years she has shown her passion for grass court tennis. Throughout her career, Boulter has proven to be a very comfortable player on a surface that so many struggle to deal with, and she has a 29-12 record in main WTA tournaments played on the grass since the Covid cancelled 2020 grass court season.

Despite that, Katie Boulter will perhaps be a little disappointed that the win-loss record drops to 17-11 when only considering matches played against top 100 Ranked players in that time. She is also just 12-10 when facing opponents that are Ranked higher than her when the match is played, and eleven of those wins were in either 2021 or 2022 when Katie Boulter was Ranked outside of the top 100.

She still had to win the matches, but it is a real worry that the current British Number 1 has a 1-4 record against opponents Ranked higher than herself since cracking the top 100 in her own right.

Even her First Round win over Ajla Tomljanovic was a real battle- the Australian is a very good grass court player too, but she is only returning from an injury and is the World Number 64, while Tomljanovic will be frustrated at creating 14 Break Points compared with just 6 for Katie Boulter.

This is a significant step upwards for Boulter, who will need the crowd to get behind her and push her through, but the Birmingham Quarter Finalist and Bad Homburg Champion from 2024 should have the power to come through.

Elena Rybakina - 5.5 games v Heather Watson: The first match on a grass court can always be an awkward experience, even for a former Wimbledon Champion like Elena Rybakina.

Her performance at Roland Garros has to offer some encouragement to a player who continues to deal with off court issues that are clearly impacting her play on the court.

Elena Rybakina has every tool you would want if you were going to build a proper grass court player- she is perhaps a slightly weaker mover than ideal, but the big serve and the powerful aggressive groundstrokes makes the World Number 11 a real contender when Wimbledon rolls around.

She will be given a test by Heather Watson, even if the 33 year old British player has slipped down the World Rankings. These days it is the likes of Emma Raducanu and Katie Boulter who will make the headlines for British Women's tennis in the summer and Heather Watson has not only fallen to World Number 164, but she was beaten early in a lower level event in Birmingham.

Heather Watson has to feel she has benefited from needing to win a couple of Qualifiers to take her place in the main draw in Queens and she was able to best World Number 27 Yulia Putintseva in the First Round without dropping a set.

However, this feels like a considerable step upwards against a former Wimbledon Champion and especially when you factor in Heather Watson's 3-8 record in her previous eleven grass court matches before entering the Qualifying draw here.

All three of her defeats last year were in competitive matches, but none of the opponents were nearly as highly Ranked as Elena Rybakina is and the question really is about how quickly the higher Seed can get into the groove on the grass.

The expectation is that the first set could be more competitive, but Rybakina may begin to move through the gears into the second set and that can see her progress to the Quarter Final with a solid win on the board.

MY PICKS: Emma Raducanu - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Diana Shnaider - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 90-75, + 8.10 Units (203 Units Staked, + 3.99% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 17th)

The last few days have been incredibly frustrating with at least one selection a day finding a way to lose a match they should have won.

It has meant a tough set of results being returned, especially when adding in some poor selections.

Things would have looked a lot different with those close calls going my way, but it is how it goes sometimes and there isn't much you can aside from sticking with the process.

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: Over the last couple of years, Felix Auger-Aliassime has begun to make more of an impact on the ATP Tour, although I think he has joined up with Toni Nadal to try and bring a little more consistency to his game. He is young, and that is a factor, but losing concentration within matches makes progress through the early Rounds of any tournament a little more haphazard and could potentially mean Felix Auger-Aliassime is not able to produce the energy he needs to really rack up the tournament wins.

An all-around game has been developed by the Canadian and it has pushed him into the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time earlier this season.

Even now, Felix Auger-Aliassime will be heading into Wimbledon as one of the top Seeds and he has shown a very good game that is well suited to the grass courts throughout his career.

He has yet to win a title on the surface, but Felix Auger-Aliassime reached the Quarter Final in Wimbledon and he has made it through to the Semi Final at least in all five warm up events he has ever played on the grass courts. A win on Friday will keep that run going and Felix Auger-Aliassime will be confident even though he is facing an opponent who reached the Wimbledon Semi Final last season.

Hubert Hurkacz has a serve that should be a big weapon on the grass courts and he has always held a very high percentage of service games played on the surface. However, the World Number 12 has regularly struggled when it comes to the return and he has only broken in 11% of return games played on the grass this season.

That is a number that is perhaps lower than expected, but even in his run to the Wimbledon Semi Final, Hubert Hurkacz broke in 20% of his return games played in the tournament. Overall his return numbers need work on this surface and it does put some pressure on him to make sure he serves well and ultimately may be the reason he has a relatively poor win-loss record on the grass, especially taking away that run last year.

Two solid wins in Halle will have given Hubert Hurkacz confidence, but this has not been a great match up for him having lost both previous matches against Felix Auger-Aliassime.

The Polish player has yet to break the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve, although it should be noted that both matches were competitive and they have earned the same number of break points across those. A slight edge has been with the Canadian's return game, while has shown a bit more consistency on the return on grass courts in general compared with Hubert Hurkacz.

Last year they met in the First Round here in Halle and it resulted in a straight sets win for Felix Auger-Aliassime and I think he can match that in this Quarter Final.

Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: There will always be a lot of talk about the danger that Andy Murray will pose at Wimbledon having only just missed out on a Seed, but Nick Kyrgios is going to be right next to the former Champion as the unseeded player that none of the top players will want to face early in the tournament.

The Australian looks much happier in his personal life and that has been seen with a more focused approach to his tennis, although Nick Kyrgios is never that far away from having an argument with the umpire or the crowd.

It makes him a character that is going to be much followed throughout his career, but a focused Nick Kyrgios is a very dangerous opponent and has long shown an affinity with the grass courts. He played some strong tennis to reach the Semi Final in Stuttgart last week before being undone by Andy Murray, and Nick Kyrgios has headed to Halle with confidence that has shown up in his two solid wins here.

Beating Stefanos Tsitsipas from a set behind showed some of the new maturity from Kyrgios which has added to a strong game and he is going to be a big favourite to beat Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta.

While most will associate players from Spain with the clay courts, Pablo Carreno Busta has had plenty of success on the hard courts in his career and putting two wins on the board in Halle means he deserves plenty of respect. In reality, the grass has perhaps not been his favoured surface and Pablo Carreno Busta may also have taken advantage of what has looked a pretty kind draw, but this is anything but that.

The Pablo Carreno Busta career numbers on the grass shows that his serve can be a little vulnerable on the surface, but the real problem has been having difficulty getting to grips with how to return. In the two wins this week, Pablo Carreno Busta has been serving pretty well though with 83% of his games being held, but he has also backed that up with breaks in 18% of return games to just edge his way through to this Quarter Final.

My feeling is that it will be much tougher to get into the Nick Kyrgios service games, while there has been an improvement on the return this week as the big points have been played well.

Nick Kyrgios is still a slightly underwhelming return player, but he may feel he can get into more of the Carreno Busta service games. In their two previous matches, Kyrgios has been able to do that by winning 40% of return points played and I do think the more natural grass player of the two will be able to come through with a win and a cover.

Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: The late finish on Wednesday could have an impact on the veteran Marin Cilic in this Quarter Final, but he is very adept at playing on the grass courts and as a former Champion at Queens Club, I am not expecting too many issues in recovery time.

The bigger issue may be facing a very competent opponent in Emil Ruusuvuori who has come through the Qualifiers and won a couple of matches in the main draw. The win over Feliciano Lopez in the Second Qualifying Round means Emil Ruusuvuori is already used to beating former Champions here, although the rest of the draw has worked out pretty well for him.

This is a marked step up in terms of level of opponent too- Feliciano Lopez is very comfortable on the grass courts, but he is very much in the twilight of his career, while Marin Cilic is coming off a run to the French Open Semi Final on what is his weakest surface. The Croatian is a former Finalist at Wimbledon and the grass is a surface that he has always enjoyed having ten matches on it last year.

Marin Cilic has won his two matches in Queens behind an impressive serve and you may even have expected him to have a higher hold percentage than the 88% mark put together when you consider he has won 72% of points behind that shot. I expect that to be a key part of his tennis in the very hot conditions expected in London on Friday, while Marin Cilic has backed that up by breaking his first two opponents at least twice.

We know how experienced Marin Cilic is on the grass, but that is not the same for Emil Ruusuvuori who is enjoying this week. More than half of his career wins on the grass have been earned over the last week, while the Ruusuvuori serve has been working really well on the grass in the two tournaments has competed in over the last couple of weeks.

However, it has to be accepted that some of those numbers can be easily skewed by one or two really strong performances and I think that is the case for the Finnish player. I do think there is a proper player in Emil Ruusuvuori and one we will see competing in big tournaments throughout his career, but he was well beaten by Ilya Ivashka last week in Hertogenbosch and I do think the grass court nous of Marin Cilic is a huge challenge to face.

Both will be reliant on their serves, but the feeling is that Marin Cilic could find one or two more openings in this Quarter Final and that can see him edge to the cover in a tight win. The win over Lopez will give Emil Ruusuvuori belief in his tennis, but Marin Cilic is still playing at a really high level and that can see him play the big points efficiently to move through to another Semi Final on this surface at Queens Club.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Oscar Otte-Karen Khachanov Over 23.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Filip Krajinovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Donna Vekic @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Shuai Zhang @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)

Veronika Kudermetova @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-19, - 10.56 Units (70 Units Staked, - 15.09% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 17th)

The first week on the grass courts was not a great one for the Tennis Picks, but at one stage it was looking a lot worse than it ended up being.

As I have mentioned at the time, the small sample of grass court statistics to back up the selections does make things a little more difficult to read, but that is something I am trying to factor into the Picks from this time of the season. There isn't a lot of time to get into rhythm on a grass court where matches can be won and lost very quickly, which is always a concern when you make any Picks, and it doesn't take a lot of breaks of serves to secure sets.

That is factored into some of the spreads that we will see over the next couple of weeks and it is something to consider.


This week we have the biggest events that are played before Wimbledon on the surface, but it looks like another potentially wet week all around. The usually warm June weather we expect to see in Europe has not materialised as most would have been hoping for and I do think there will be some delays in the days ahead.

In Halle those look like they will be coming later in the week, but in London and Birmingham we could see the early part of the tournament being affected by the weather. It will mean some players will be asked to play twice in a single day to maintain their push through the draw, which can be highly frustrating, but the hope is that better weather is to come by the time Wimbledon rolls around.


Monday does tend to be one of the slow burners at the start of the week in a new tournament, but there are quite a few First Round matches that have been scheduled with Qualifiers completed on Sunday. Below you can see my selections for the day as well as the updated season totals after a poor week for the Tennis Picks.


Steve Johnson v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The tournament being played in Halle comes in a week where a number of the bigger names on the Tour will be looking to get some competitive grass court tennis underneath their legs. Roger Federer is the top Seed in Halle, but it is a competitive draw and the chance for some really important Ranking points to be earned if putting a strong run together.

Both Steve Johnson and Philipp Kohlschreiber have to believe they are capable of performing effectively enough on the grass to have a chance of doing that. The winner is likely going to face Alexander Zverev in the Second Round, but that match looks as winnable as it can with the German being out of consistent form, and both Johnson and Kohlschreiber will have a lot of belief if they can get out of this match.

Neither had the week they would have liked in Stuttgart last week with an opening loss so there is some pressure for them to have a stronger week in Halle where there are more Ranking points available. I have to say I am a touch surprised with the prices and I do think the wrong player is being favoured in this First Round match, although it could be the factor of Kohlschreiber playing at home which is perhaps seeing him edge favouritism.

In their previous meeting on the grass it was Kohlscreiber who won too, but that was back in June 2017 and there has been some improvement in the Johnson game since then. Both players will be very keen to get plenty of first serves in play which will set them up to run through those games effectively, but it is Johnson who looks to be showing the superior returning that can make the difference in this one.

Returning serve on the grass has been ineffective from Kohlschreiber who won just 29% of points against the Miomir Kecmanovic serve last week. In 2017 the German broke in only 12% of return games and in 2018 that number slipped to 11%, while there has been a clear decline in Kohlschreiber's performances on that side of his game.

Over the last twelve months Johnson has broken in 21% of return games played on the grass and he was successful getting into the Gael Monfils service games last week. It won't be easy against the Kohlschreiber serve, but Johnson should have the slight edge when it comes to the return of serve and I think that makes the underdog an appealing player to back in this First Round match.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Last week was a little disappointing for Gael Monfils in his Second Round defeat in Stuttgart, but the Frenchman is someone who is capable of playing on the grass courts. He will be expecting a lot better from himself when the Tour moves to Halle, although Monfils could have perhaps been hoping for a better First Round draw than facing compatriot Pierre-Hugues Herbert.

You would think Herbert's style would be well suited to the grass with his ambitions of getting to the net and being able to employ serve-volley tactics, but it hasn't really happened for him on the Singles court just yet. He was also beaten in the Second Round last week in his first grass court action of the 2019 season and Herbert needs to find a way to get a little more out of the serve.

In 2017 Herbert was holding just shy of 80% of the service games he played on the grass, but that number slipped a little bit in 2018 and he was broken too many times last week in Hertogenbosch. Breaks of serve on the grass courts should be a rarity if you are on top of your game, but Herbert was broken at least twice in each match played and that puts pressure on what is a limited returning game.

The two matches last week is a very limited sample as Herbert actually had some success on the return, but in the last couple of years it has not been a strength for him on the grass. I do think he could have some joy if Gael Monfils is not able to improve his own standards from what he showed in Stuttgart, but the higher Ranked Frenchman has also shown he can get his teeth in return games and I do think he can make enough balls back in play to put Herbert under pressure.

Last week might have just been a poor week for Monfils whose serve has been much more effective on the grass in 2017 and 2018. I think he should have more chances of getting through those games against an opponent like Herbert and Monfils' return should prove to be a decisive factor in being able to help him through to the Second Round with a good looking win on the board.


Robin Haase-Alexander Zverev over 21.5 games: The final match on the opening Monday in Halle sees the German Number 1 take to the court as Alexander Zverev tries to get his season turned back around. It has been a difficult couple of months for Zverev who has struggled with the kind of consistency we would have come to expect from him.

A defeat to Dustin Brown in Stuttgart last week is not a good look for Zverev as he is just having a difficult moment when the critical point in matches has been reached. He couldn't take the break points that he was creating in that match, but the serve has been a shot that has yet to really push on and give Zverev the chance to keep opponents off of him too.

Alexander Zverev has got plenty out of his serve on the grass courts in the last couple of years, but I would be concerned with the amount of break points Brown was able to earn last week. In this First Round match in Halle Zverev is taking on a limited returner in Robin Haase too which is why he is such a big favourite to progress to the Second Round, but Haase can't be coming into the match without any belief.

The Dutchman is a former title winner on the grass courts and he is someone who has given Zverev plenty to think about in previous matches between these two. In the last eighteen months Haase has won two of the three matches between himself and Zverev, and he has had enough joy in the return of serve to think he has a chance in this match.

Those previous matches have largely been competitive affairs too and I do think Zverev's current form is going to mean he is needing to dig deep to win the match. I would be a touch concerned with the relatively poor service numbers that Robin Haase has produced on the grass courts in recent years, but he is someone who can play very well on the surface when finding his best form and I can see both players being in a position to win the sets.

With every chance of seeing three sets I am going to look for the total games line to be surpassed. Even a competitive straight sets win for either player should see this number of games covered on a grass court and that is going to be my selection from this match.

MY PICKS: Steve Johnson @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Robin Haase-Alexander Zverev Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Joao Sousa @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco + 3.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 70.87 Units (1002 Units Staked, + 7.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 21st)

The Tennis tournaments this week are a little easier to prepare in the middle of the week as far as Tennis Picks are concerned with the Second Round split over two days.

That usually means the markets are out considerably earlier than they would be normally and I have got my Picks prepared before the results from the Wednesday Picks are completed.


Lesia Tsurenko + 2.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: I guess you would have to make Daria Kasatakina favourite for this match because of her overall performances this season, but I have to say the prices don't factor in the poorer record she has on the grass.

Her win in the First Round will have given Kasatkina some confidence, but this is clearly still a learning curve for her and I do think someone like Lesia Tsurenko is comfortable enough on the surface to give the young Russian something to think about.

My concern with backing a small underdog on the WTA Tour is that you can see sets run away from them and then even a deciding set loss is not enough to get within the number. Someone who returns as well as Kasatkina makes me a little more wary when it comes to this pick, but I think Tsurenko should be able to have some joy on the return herself to keep this one close.

I also believe Tsurenko has every chance to win this match outright which makes backing her on the handicap a little more comfortable for me. Tsurenko is a decent grass court player without being a world beater on the surface and I do think she will be able to have her moments in this one which makes the underdog more appealing.

Having the safety of the games behind me when I believe she is capable of winning the match outright helps me get behind Tsurenko in this one as Kasatkina continues to prove to herself that she can play on this surface.


Julien Benneteau v Adrian Mannarino: This is expected to the final season on the Tour as a Singles player for Julien Benneteau but he is making the best of the situation with a strong run here at Queens Club. The Frenchman came through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw and Benneteau had a strong win over Tomas Berdych which will give him confidence as he gets set to face compatriot Adrian Mannarino in the Second Round.

Benneteau has always enjoyed playing on the grass and he has been in good form so far this week although I do wonder if he is playing above the level expected.

In 2017 Benneteau really struggled when it came to holding his serve, but he has been strong on that front in the three matches played to get into the main draw at Queens. However where Benneteau continues to pose a threat is off the return of serve and he will feel he can get the better of Adrian Mannarino despite the grass court pedigree the latter has displayed.

In recent seasons Mannarino has had some strong hold/break percentages on the grass courts although he has had a mixed start to 2018. A loss to Jeremy Chardy and a win over Daniel Evans is not bad form although I do worry about the head to head with the feeling it matters a lot when it comes to matches between French players.

Both players could find themselves under pressure when it comes to the service games and I would not be surprised if we see a number of breaks of serve even in the faster conditions in this part of West London. However I think it is Julien Benneteau playing the slightly better tennis at the moment and the head to head with Mannarino may be enough to make the difference at key moments of the match.

There will be some twists and turns along the way, but I like Julien Benneteau in what is almost a pick 'em contest.


Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: There are signs that Novak Djokovic is getting somewhere near to his best, but I think there is still some way to go for the former World Number 1 to really have the belief in his own game. You got a sense of that when going out of the French Open in disappointing circumstances and immediately questioning whether he will play at Wimbledon in July.

Taking a Wild Card into Queens is a good sign for Djokovic, but in reality he is still very much searching to get comfortable on the court. His numbers have been decent enough throughout 2018, but the aura around him has gone and that means players are less likely to capitulate at his feet if they fall behind in a set.

Novak Djokovic was a dominant winner in the First Round here over John Millman, but the level of competition goes up drastically when going up against Grigor Dimitrov in the Second Round. Dimitrov is a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist and very comfortable on the grass courts, although I am not sure the Bulgarian is feeling his best tennis right now.

Playing someone like Djokovic on this surface should get the adrenaline pumping for Dimitrov but he was struggling for his best in the First Round and really needs to step up his play. An area of concern for Dimitrov fans is the decline in the service numbers on the grass courts in four consecutive years and now coming up a returner as strong as Novak Djokovic can be is going to put the higher Ranked player under some pressure.

Dimitrov should enjoy some success on the return of serve though, even if he is not the best returner on the Tour. That is mainly down to Djokovic still not having full faith in that shot after the wrist issues of twelve months ago, but generally the Serb has been a strong server on the grass courts and even his 80% hold percentage in 2018 is not to be sniffed at.

I think Djokovic has the edge in this match and the head to head only adds to that. While I expect the former World Number 1 to go through some challenging moments in the match, I think Djokovic will have the majority of the break point chances and I will look for Djokovic to win and cover in this big Second Round match.


Matthew Ebden-Philipp Kohlschreiber over 22.5 games: Two players who are very comfortable on the grass courts will meet in the Second Round in Halle and it has all the makings of a match that may need to go the distance to settle it. Philipp Kohlschreiber has not been putting the wins together he would have liked and he won't have nearly the same kind of confidence as Matthew Ebden.

Ebden has reached back to back Semi Finals on the grass courts and that has earned him a Special Entry into the main draw in Halle. He has deserved that, but it also has to be noted that very rarely has Ebden played someone with the quality that Kohlschreiber brings to the court, while he will also have to deal with the spectators who will want the home player to win.

Where Ebden can be confident is the way he has been serving and the 91% hold rate from eleven matches played on the grass over the last couple of weeks has to be respected. The opposition may not have been the best in that run, but Ebden will believe in his serve and he is facing an opponent here who is not exactly the greatest returner on this surface.

You can see that from Kohlschreiber's numbers on the return of serve, but he himself is possessed with a solid serve on the grass courts and I think it will be a challenge for Ebden facing it. Last week Ebden did break the Gilles Muller serve at will on the grass which is a huge achievement, but Kohlschreiber may have a little more all around game which can help him maintain his own strong numbers on the serve.

This has the feeling of a match where one or two breaks of serve will decide it but I won't be surprised to see at least one tie-breaker in this one. With the chances of this one going into a deciding set too I do think the total games can be surpassed although a straight sets win could be a concern if one of these players is not serving as well as expected.

I did also think Matthew Ebden is a big price to win the match considering how well he has been playing and especially returning on the grass courts, but it should be a close match and I will look at the total games line.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Benoit Paire: Whenever you see a spread of this size you have to be a little careful and that is especially so on the grass courts where breaks of serve are not obtained easily.

For all the obvious greatness of Roger Federer, who won yet another grass court title last week in Stuttgart, sometimes you can question the return of serve and whether it will be effective enough to cover this kind of number. In his five wins on grass Federer has broken at just 18% so far this season and his 2017 number of 43.5% is clearly an out-marker compared to his general numbers which have been much more similar to where he is this season.

It will be interesting to see how he copes against Benoit Paire who has had some solid grass court results over the last thirteen months compared to his general feel on this surface. His hold percentage has been markedly improved and that has allowed Paire to free himself up when it comes to the return of serve and the main reason the wins have been put together on this surface.

In usual circumstances I would not hesitate to move on from this match, but Paire has had some issues with Federer in their previous meetings and rarely been competitive. That has to be in his head against an opponent who is the best grass court player in the world at this time and I do think it will give Federer a chance to produce the break points needed to cover this number.

The head to head is 5-0 in favour of Federer and in eleven sets played the Swiss player has only given up four or more games three times. He hasn't dominated Paire completely on the numbers, but Federer fashions his break points and tends to take them against this opponent which may have as much to do with the Frenchman's emotional state at those pressurised moments which can be questioned.

That may be the case when they play in Halle and I think Federer has been serving well enough to have three more breaks of serve than Paire which should be good enough to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Lesia Tsurenko + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Julien Benneteau @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden-Philipp Kohlschreiber Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-7, + 7.58 Units (38 Units Staked, + 19.95% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 20th)

It was a mixed set of results on Tuesday for the Tennis Picks but it wasn't a completely unimportant day as we are always building data which can help going forward.

What I have realised is I am very unlikely to back Nick Kyrgios or Tomas Berdych again this season.

One player is too emotional for me and you simply don't know how he is going to feel from day to day, while the other is on a decline which is getting more and more rapid. I like Kyrgios but I have long found him a tough player to trust, especially as a favourite, while Berdych's return game has slipped considerably.

I was disappointed with the returns on Tuesday, but at least this week is still in a profitable position and I am looking to add to that on Wednesday. The selections look quite difficult to find on Wednesday as we move into the Second Round at the events being played this week, but I do have a number which can be read below.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Robin Haase: The First Round win over Joao Sousa was a lot harder work for Robin Haase than it perhaps should have been but it was another strong result on the grass courts for the Dutchman. The serve is an effective weapon for Haase and that is his best chance of putting Roberto Bautista Agut under pressure.

Over the last few years Haase has really been tough to break on the grass courts and he has continued that form so far in 2018. He has held serve at 85% or better in four of the last five seasons on the grass courts with 2016 being an exception as that number dropped down to 76%, but the consistency suggests he gets enough pop out of the serve which makes it tough for opponents to get into those games.

The main reason Haase has not produced as many wins as he would have liked is a limited return game and that was almost his downfall against Sousa in the First Round. It was the reason he was beaten in three tight sets by Roberto Bautista Agut earlier this season on the hard courts, although I am backing the Spaniard to win a little more comfortably in this Second Round match.

Bautista Agut may not have the same percentage of holds as Haase on this surface because he simply does not have as big a serve, but he has been very good on that side of his game. The edge goes to Bautista Agut when it comes to returning effectively enough and that helped him crush Jan-Lennard Struff in the First Round after coming through some difficult moments in the first set.

The return has helped his combined hold/break percentage reach at least 100% in the last four seasons and I think Bautista Agut will get the better of Haase in this one. I like the way the latter has played on the grass courts but I think Bautista Agut will put him under more pressure on Haase's own serve and that can see him break him down over the course of this match and cover the number.


Kei Nishikori - 1.5 games v Karen Khachanov: The last couple of years have seen Kei Nishikori's grass court season end with an injury problem both times, but he may be coming into the 2018 campaign as healthy as he has been. Last year's injury came in Halle and it was soon afterwards that Nishikori was out for the rest of the year to recover and there have been signs he is getting back to his best.

Nishikori is perhaps an underrated grass court player simply because he has not racked up the kind of wins he could have done without injury coming in to prevent him doing so. The numbers have remained very good from Nishikori and he was a solid winner in the First Round here which will have given him a chance to get used to the grass underneath the feet.

In 2017 Nishikori was forced to pull out of a match against Karen Khachanov and it is the same opponent standing in his way twelve months later.

There isn't a lot of data on Khachanov on the grass courts having only really begun to play on the surface in 2017, but unlike idol Marat Safin it looks like a surface on which the young Russian will be very comfortable. His win over Mischa Zverev in the First Round has to be given a lot of respect and Khachanov will believe he has the shot making and power to give Nishikori plenty to worry about in this match.

I think that is the case too, but Nishikori's combined hold/break percentage on the grass courts have been very impressive over the years. There is every chance this is going to be a good looking match with both players having their chances, but I think Nishikori's superior return game will prove to be a difference maker at key moments of this match and I do think he is the better grass court player.

At the moment he may be a little underrated on the surface and I will back Nishikori to win and cover the number in a victory.


Stan Wawrinka-Sam Querrey over 24.5 games: The grass courts at Queens Club in West London tend to be some of the faster ones on the ATP Tour and that gives players like Sam Querrey the chance to be very effective on the surface. His overall record on the grass is very good which is not a big surprise considering the serve the American has been blessed with and it will be a key weapon for him in this Second Round match.

Querrey may be 1-5 down in the head to head with Stan Wawrinka, which includes a heavy loss at Queens Club, but it is Querrey who comes in as favourite which says a lot about where Wawrinka is with his comeback from an injury.

Both players defeated lower Ranked British opponents in the First Round and both Wawrinka and Querrey were deserved winners having held serve throughout the match. Both players will understand the opponent they face in the Second Round is likely to get a lot more joy on the return of serve, although I still think serve will be king in this match.

Out of the two players it is Querrey who has shown a little more out of the return on the grass courts in the last couple of years, but Wawrinka is someone who will try and put pressure on Querrey with bunted returns and force the big man to win longer rallies than he is used to.

That has proved to be effective enough in beating Querrey for the majority of their matches against one another, but there are some doubts about the fitness of Wawrinka which can't be ignored. Instead I am looking for a match where both players can put a huge number of holds on the board and I would not be surprised if we needed a third set to decide the winner.

Even a tight two setter has every chance of covering the total games line in this one and I will back the two players to combine for enough games to surpass this line.


Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: With the courts traditionally playing pretty fast in this are of West London it automatically feels like a big spread for the Number 1 Seed to cover. Marin Cilic may be very comfortable on the grass courts as a former winner here in Queens and also a former Wimbledon Finalist, but he is going to be tested by Gilles Muller who pushed Cilic the distance both at Queens and at Wimbledon in 2017.

The raw numbers from those matches suggest Muller was perhaps a little fortunate to be able to have gotten so close to beating Cilic in both of those events. Any time a player can force a deciding set they will feel they have a chance to win the match, but Cilic will have been disappointed to have lost either when looking the stronger player both times but allowing one poor service game to make life much tougher than it should have been.

One thing that sticks out the most from their matches on the grass in 2017 is that Cilic won a very strong 43% and 45% of return points in those two matches. That is a pretty incredible return against someone like Gilles Muller who has a big left handed serve that has seen him win at least 71% points behind serve in four of the last five years on the grass courts.

His first match in 2018 saw Muller go down to a surprisingly easy defeat to Matthew Ebden and he did have some issues when it came to the serve that day. Playing against Marin Cilic will be a real challenge for Muller because he has the wingspan to get enough balls back in play and force Muller to hit more volleys than he is perhaps comfortable with.

Cilic is even more dangerous when looking at the stellar numbers produced by the Croatian on the grass courts since 2016. He dominated Fernando Verdasco in the First Round and playing a lefty will have given Cilic some idea of what to expect from Muller although the latter has a bigger first serve than Verdasco.

Last year Muller had an exceptional year when it comes to breaking on the grass courts but generally he is someone who has had issues when it comes to the return. If Cilic serves as he did in the First Round I think he can use the scoreboard pressure to find the two breaks of serve he will need to cover this number and I think he is capable of doing that.

Covering is priced up at odds against and I think Cilic can do that with his returning ability on the grass courts and someone who has had considerable success against the Muller serve.


Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Dalila Jakupovic: This is a big number for Naomi Osaka to cover when you think of the limited success she has had on the grass courts in the past. Her opponent Dalila Jakupovic has come through the Qualifiers in Birmingham after having a successful week in Nottingham which makes her a dangerous opponent.

Any player who has come through the Qualifiers in back to back weeks is clearly playing with some confidence and so Jakupovic has to be respected. She has had some good wins on the grass courts with perhaps the biggest coming in the First Round in Birmingham as Jakupovic came from behind to beat Elise Mertens.

However the one defeat came to a quality player in Johanna Konta and I think Jakupovic may be playing an opponent who is much improved on the grass courts.

Osaka reached the Semi Final in Nottingham last week and she had some very dominant wins on the grass courts in the last ten days which will have given her some confidence. The serve has always been a decent weapon for Osaka on this surface, but she is backing that up with some strong returning displays and I think that is going to be the key in helping her overcome this opponent and covering this number.

Jakupovic has some solid numbers behind serve and return, but they are slightly less effective than Osaka's numbers and I think that will show up in this match. It could have a similar feel to the way Jakupovic was beaten by Konta last week in Nottingham and I will back Osaka to cover here.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka-Sam Querrey Over 24.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-6, + 3.98 Units (30 Units Staked, + 13.27% Yield)