Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 18th June)

A couple of rolls of the ball or a mishit here or there may have led to a perfect 5-0 start to the week for the Tennis Picks, but it was not to be for Joao Fonseca, who had late Break Point opportunities to win and cover.

Instead he was beaten in a third set tie-breaker, but Andrey Rublev had already done all that was expected from him earlier in the day in Halle and that has prevented this week having the same slide as last week following a strong start for the selections.

Moving onto Wednesday means more big names are in action and the majority of the tournaments being played will be into Second Round action over the next couple of days. There some First Round matches to clear up in Halle as the organisers gave a couple of Finalists from the end of last week a bit more time to prepare for their event, but in the main it is onto Second Round action in what are the last really big events before the start of Wimbledon a week on Monday.

Emma Navarro v Paula Badosa: Both of these players produced very solid First Round wins in Berlin and previous form on the grass courts should mean Emma Navarro and Paula Badosa are set for decent impacts when Wimbledon gets underway.

The more matches that can be played now could pay off in SW19 and so this is an important Second Round match.

Last week Emma Navarro was beaten at the same stage at Queens Club in London, while Paula Badosa is playing her first grass court event of 2025, and the performances that have been produced in the opening wins should have given each plenty of confidence.

At the same time, both Navarro and Badosa have struggled for some consistency in the last few months and so they will be looking to rebuild some of the lost confidence by having a strong run in Berlin.

Emma Navarro was a Wimbledon Quarter Finalist last year, and that had followed a Semi Final run in Bad Homburg. She has yet to really find the same level on the surface in the opening three matches played, but all three have been against decent players on the Tour and going 2-1 will certainly help the American believe that her tennis is in a good spot.

In the same two events in 2024, Paula Badosa reached the Fourth Round in SW19 and Quarter Final in Bad Homburg, and she looked in strong shape in crushing home hope Eva Lys in the First Round. This is a significant step upwards in terms of a challenge having split two matches with Emma Navarro last year with the Badosa win being on a clay court and the Navarro win coming at the US Open on the hard courts.

Paula Badosa has all of the attributes to be a really strong grass court player- the serve can be a huge weapon and she showed that she can get her teeth into the return last year and in the strong First Round win.

However, that will be tested by Emma Navarro if the World Number 9 is anywhere near her best and the match up with the Spaniard has been one that she has enjoyed.

This has the makings of a close Second Round match between two players separated by one place in the World Rankings and Emma Navarro can secure the upset. It was something of a surprise that she has been set as the pretty strong underdog, and the American can make use of the games being given to her on the handicap.

Jack Draper - 3.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Over the last twelve months, Alexei Popyrin has perhaps picked up a better understanding of playing on the grass courts, although it is still a work in progress. He is going to be Seeded at Wimbledon later this month and Alexei Popyrin has won six of his last ten matches on the surface having gotten the better of compatriot Aleksandar Vukic in the First Round.

That followed an early loss in Hertogenbosch and there is little doubt that Alexei Popyrin is a very dangerous player on this surface as long as he serves as well as he can. Doing that makes it very difficult to get on top of him and Popyrin won a set in a Third Round loss to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon last year, which will have given him a lot of confidence to perform on this surface.

Playing in London means it is tennis season and Alexei Popyrin has had previous experience of facing a British player at Queens Club when losing to Andy Murray in what turned out to be the last Singles win of the latter's very strong career.

This time he has to face the British Number 1, who is also the World Number 6, and Jack Draper has all of the tools needed to be a very successful player on the surface.

He won a title on the grass in Stuttgart last year, but Draper was disappointingly beaten early at Wimbledon and so there has been a tweak of the schedule. This time Jack Draper decided to have some time off before Queens got underway and he was a very strong First Round winner.

Jack Draper's improvement on the Tour has been behind the strong lefty serve, and that is a weapon that is considerably more dangerous on a surface like this one. He should be able to largely contain the Alexei Popyrin threat when he is serving and that should allow Draper the freedom to try and attack the Australian, who has given up seventeen Break Points in two matches played on the grass this month.

When he is serving at his best, Alexei Popyrin can be very difficult to break- he held 89% of his service games on the grass courts in 2024. This is not an easy surface to break serve, but Jack Draper has had some decent numbers on the grass and he can use his own serve to put some scoreboard pressure on the lower Ranked player.

The home player can take some encouragement from the fact he was able to break the Alexei Popyrin twice on the hard courts of Doha earlier this season too and Draper may have enough to cover the spread in this one barring a significant serving improvement from the World Number 21.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Marcos Giron: It was something of a surprise to not see Marcos Giron's name on the draw sheet at either of the two grass court events played last week.

In recent years, the 31 year old has been a comfortable grass court player and he has had some big wins and solid runs on the surface.

He arrives in Halle to face the home favourite, Alexander Zverev, who is also fresh off of reaching the Stuttgart Final before being downed by Taylor Fritz again. This is also a player who has regularly reached the business end at this tournament in the build up to Wimbledon, although Zverev will have plenty of respect for the kind of tennis that Marcos Giron can produce on the grass.

The serve was key for Marcus Giron last year and it helped him win the ATP title in Newport, as well as reaching the Quarter Final here in Halle. During that summer on the grass, Giron was able to take a set from Jack Draper and beat Andrey Rublev, which are impressive performances and his runs were ended by top ten Ranked players here and at Wimbledon.

The second of those defeats was to Alexander Zverev, who dismissed Marcus Giron at SW19 far more easily than anyone could have really imagined.

It is the kind of win that will give Zverev confidence as he heads out onto the court on Wednesday following the loss in Stuttgart on Sunday and the only real concern is whether he is that motivated for another long week with Wimbledon fast approaching. Having those wins in Stuttgart could be a distraction for Alexander Zverev, even if he is going to be well backed by the fans in the stands, although the match up is hard to ignore.

He has won all three previous matches against Marcus Giron and the two wins in 2024 both came in straight sets.

Overall it has been a real challenge for the World Number 41 to get into the Alexander Zverev service games and that has put too much pressure on his own serve.

It should be noted that Alexander Zverev is not the most convincing of return players on the faster surfaces, but he should have enough chances in this First Round match to win and go through with a cover of this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Emma Navarro + 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Jack Draper - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 2.32 Units (5 Units Staked, + 46.40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 18th)

It has been a difficult week.

And for about an hour on Friday, I felt things were just not going to get much better as two players I picked won the first set of their matches and were then beaten in three sets.

Both of those were at close to odds against plays (one was odds against) and one of the players had been up a break in the second set before falling away.

At that point I honestly thought this was going to be one of those weeks where bad fortune and bad Picks were going to combine to really batter the numbers.

But then things changed...

After a 1-2 start on Friday with those aforementioned three set defeats, the Tennis Picks surged to a 7-1 conclusion for the day and almost completely wiped out the deep hole the numbers had been in through the first four days of the week.

Even then I feel it could have been even better, but I have to be very happy with the outcome of the Quarter Final matches and now we are down to the final two days at the events being played this week.

Conditions were very difficult for the two Great Britain based tournaments on Friday, but Saturday looks to be cooler all around, especially at the WTA Birmingham event. However, rain is also expected both in Birmingham and London so both tournaments are expected to be impacted.

It will be much tougher in Germany though with the heatwave moving across Europe hitting this weekend in time for the Semi Final and Final matches in Berlin and Halle. You have to factor those into your plays, but most of the players left in the draws should be used to what they have to deal with.

Hubert Hurkacz-Nick Kyrgios over 23.5 games: It has been hot in Halle all week, but the temperature rockets upwards over the weekend and I do think that is only going to favour the server even more than usual.

Both of these Semi Finalists have been dominant behind serve so far this week and I do think that both Hubert Hurkacz and Nick Kyrgios are likely going to keep that going against each other.

You have to give Nick Kyrgios the edge when it comes to the returning numbers this week in his run to the Semi Final, but he has struggled against the first serve of both Daniel Altmaier and Stefanos Tsitsipas before overwhelming Pablo Carreno Busta. While the earlier Rounds saw Hubert Hurkacz with his first serve percentage, he landed 65% of them in his Quarter Final upset of Felix Auger-Aliassime and that will be the key to any success that the Polish player is going to have in this match.

He has not been as consistent with the first serve as he would like, but found a rhythm on Friday and that will give Hubert Hurkacz every opportunity to get in front of the scoreboard and keep the pressure on Nick Kyrgios.

The Australian has played the big points well on the return of serve this week, which makes him dangerous, but he will need some help from Hubert Hurkacz to get into a position to break serve.

However, Nick Kyrgios will be very confident in his own serve and looking for that shot to put Hubert Hurkacz under pressure. The latter admitted he could not get a read of the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve in the Quarter Final and resorted to guessing, but it will be that much harder to produce effective returns against someone like Nick Kyrgios who is landing 64% of first serves an winning 83% of points behind that shot.

With a limited return, Hubert Hurkacz is going to have to serve well to make this a competitive match, but he showed he can handle the pressure of a serve-dominated match on Friday. A hot day in Halle is likely going to make the ball fly a little faster all around and I would expect to see at least one tie-breaker between these two very strong servers, especially as both Nick Kyrgios and Hubert Hurkacz can be a little bit hit and miss with their return.

Both have been winning over 71% of their service points played and I would not be surprised if this is a match that comes down to one or two points in tie-breakers to determine the outcome. A place in the Final is going to mean plenty of motivation to take to the court, and it should mean even dropping the first set is not going to see heads drop and we may even need a decider to see who can earn their spot as a Finalist in Halle.

MY PICKS: Hubert Hurkacz-Nick Kyrgios Over 23.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev-Oscar Otte Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Shuai Zhang @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cori Gauff @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 24-22, - 1.44 Units (92 Units Staked, - 1.57% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2022- Artur Beterbiev vs Joe Smith Jr (June 18th)

We should have had the return of Jermall Charlo this weekend, but the Middleweight bout against Maciej Sulecki has been postponed.

It will mean that we have not seen Jermall Charlo in the ring for over twelve months as he waited out an opportunity to face Canelo Alvarez, but that doesn't look like coming to fruition any time soon and the American needs to be more active.

His absence has come at a time when twin brother Jermell has become an Undisputed Champion in the Light Middleweight Division and arguably become the more sellable of the two. Considering where the two would have been placed a year ago, you can see how inactivity has hurt Jermall and we will have to wait a little while longer before he is involved in a big fight.

While this is feeling like a quieter weekend of Boxing after some of the solid shows we have had over the last couple of months, there is still a massive Undisputed fight taking place in the Light Heavyweight Division.

Dmitry Bivol has already shown the world the kind of calibre of Champions in this Division when he comfortably beat Canelo Alvarez, but Artur Beterbiev has long been considered the King of the 175ers.

Joe Smith Jr is another popular name and their Unification is going to move the Light Heavyweights that much closer to a Super Fight with all of the belts on the line either later this year or early in 2023.

Artur Beterbiev vs Joe Smith Jr

Right now you would say there are three Light Heavyweights that will have to duke it out to see who is the best of the best in the 175 pound Division.

More critical people may even suggest it comes down to a straight shoot out between Dmitry Bivol and Artur Beterbiev to decide the King of the Light Heavyweights and that argument could be made when you think Bivol holds a win over Joe Smith Jr, the opponent facing Beterbiev this weekend who also holds one of the World Title Belts.

Gilberto Ramirez and Callum Smith may have something to say about who should be the headliner in the Division, but the reality is that we are likely one fight away from determining the best fighter in this weight class. And that will be the winner of this one on Saturday facing off against Dmitry Bivol with all four World Titles on the line.

I am hopeful we will get there and this Unification on Saturday has all of the makings of a brutal slugfest.

Not many would choose to stand trade with Artur Beterbiev who has yet to hear the final bell in his pro career and who has fought and stopped some solid names. However, one person who shouldn't be too hard to find is Joe Smith Jr, who buzzed Dmitry Bivol late on in what was otherwise a one-sided win for the WBA World Champion.

That power cannot be underestimated and we did see Beterbiev put down by Callum Johnson and look pretty hurt, although that is the only time we have really seen that happen.

There is no doubting the heart that Joe Smith Jr will likely show too, but I cannot help think that he is not going to have faced someone who hits as hard as Artur Beterbiev. Standing in front of the Russian fighter just seems a bad move all around, but Smith Jr only fights one way and I think that is going to lead to a dismantling and an eventual stoppage in favour of Artur Beterbiev.

Joe Smith Jr has to be respected and has some decent wins behind him, but I think a crude, pretty basic style is going to be tailor-made for Artur Beterbiev who hits plenty hard.

Artur Beterbiev is 37 years old now though and you always have to wonder if Father Time will catch up with on any given night. He hasn't had a lot of wear and tear on his body though, but I do think the age has meant he has taken a little longer to perhaps get into his groove and really start digging home with the big shots.

Only two of his first fourteen opponents were able to make it out of the Fifth Round, but each of his last three have lasted at least Nine Rounds. Some of that is down to the increased level of competition, but Adam Deines and Marcus Browne are perhaps a tier or two below Joe Smith Jr in terms of their ability to stick in a fight and I do think the American will not go down easily.

Ultimately everyone has eventually gone down.

Only one fighter has even made it to the last Round against Artur Beterbiev, but I would be surprised if he is able to get Joe Smith Jr out of there much earlier than his last three opponents. Joe Smith Jr was stopped in the Fourth Round early in his career, and there was a feeling that Dmitry Bivol could have forced a stoppage in the second half of their fight before being buzzed late on.

I just don't think Artur Beterbiev is nearly as likely to 'coast' in this one as it felt Dmitry Bivol was doing late on and I think he will get this fight won in the second half of the scheduled Twelve Rounds.

The main undercard bout features stand out amateur Robeisy Ramirez continue his pro career.

He has bounced back from a debut defeat and Ramirez is clearly on a fast track to the top of the Featherweight Division, but this is not going to be an easy test against the undefeated American Abraham Nova.

Both will feel this is a step up in their level of competition, but the feeling is that Ramirez has the skills to edge past Nova in what should be a very good undercard bout. He has made up for that sole loss on the record by beating Adan Gonzalez over Six Rounds, and I just think he will flash at times to impress the judges, although the Boxing Pick will solely come from the main event.

On Friday evening, we have the latest of a series of boxing events that are going to be shown on UK terrestrial television that are being promoted by Wasserman Boxing.

It is the chance to try and build some big local names and two fighters are on the same card in Liverpool looking to put a spark back in their careers.

Both Josh Kelly and Nathan Gorman were earning some big headlines before devastating Knock Out losses on their resumes.

Josh Kelly certainly had a big reputation and looked to be fast tracked into the World Title scene, but after a fifteen month lay off during the Covid pandemic, he was obliterated by David Avanesyan in Six Rounds. The feeling was that the fight was coming too soon, but the manner of the loss would have really hurt and he has not been out since that defeat in February 2021.

He returns having had an opponent pull out of a bout at the last minute last month, but Josh Kelly is now operating at the Light Middleweight limit. You have to expect he is going to be given an opponent that can help shake off some of the ring rust, although they have picked Peter Kramer who has been pulled down from the Middleweight Division.

Peter Kramer has fought a couple of times in the UK over the last ten months and took opponents to the cards on both occasions, although those were over Six Rounds and this has been scheduled for Ten. His two previous stoppages have come pretty early, but one of those was in the Fourth Round against Sam Eggington and it may take Josh Kelly a little bit longer to really get his timing and feeling back in the ring.

The layers expect an early night, but Josh Kelly may need a little longer than that and I think it is worth a small interest in this one getting a few Rounds under his belt before finding a Stoppage somewhere in the middle of the contest.

Nathan Gorman's career has really stalled since his early defeat to Daniel Dubois and this is only his third fight since that defeat all the way back in July 2019.

It has been fifteen months since we last saw Gorman in the ring when he was beating Pavel Sour in the Second Round and he is fighting another Czech on his return.

Tomas Salek has won the Czech Heavyweight Title and defended that in a Ten Rounder on the cards against the aforementioned Sour last time out.

However, Salek should not pose too many problems for Nathan Gorman having been stopped in the Third Round by Kash Ali and I expect the fast hands of the British fighter to get this one done pretty quickly. If his promoters have any sense, Nathan Gorman will be fighting at least two more times in 2022, and perhaps even throwing a third fight, and the boxer himself has talked about getting into the mix in a deepish Heavyweight Division so will know he needs to be as active as possible.

I am not expecting too many problems for Gorman and I will look for this contest to end before the Fourth Round begins.

MY PICKS: Artur Beterbiev to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

Josh Kelly to Win Between 5-6 @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Nathan Gorman-Tomas Salek Under Four Rounds @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2022: 24-36, + 20.86 Units (109 Units Staked, + 19.14% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 18th)

The next couple of days look a little iffy as far as the weather goes, but I think there is going to be enough time to get the matches through to keep the tournaments on schedule. The main events being affected are in the United Kingdom, but there is still plenty of tennis to be played on Tuesday when the First Round is set to be concluded in Birmingham, London, Halle and Mallorca.

Monday proved to be a rough start, but a strong finish to the day saw a winning record produced. There are a few more First Round matches that fitted into my criteria which you can see below and I have also updated the record for the week.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Benoit Paire: A Protected Ranking is giving Jo-Wilfried Tsonga the opportunity to play some big events without the need to go through Qualifying or ask for a Wild Card, but there is some pressure on him to put some strong runs together. Over the next couple of months there is nothing in terms of points for Tsonga to defend, so there is a chance for him to start to steadily climb the World Rankings from his current Number 77 spot.

He has not been benefiting from too many kind draws as his Second Round loss at the French Open to Kei Nishikori will highlight. The problem when dropping down the World Rankings is the likelihood of having to face some of the higher Seeds early in the draws and the same happened in Stuttgart last week when Tsonga was beaten by Milos Raonic whose Ranking remains relatively high despite missing huge parts of the 2019 season through injury too.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was an unfortunate loser last week to Raonic when you think of the way he actually performed, but he will be looking to put a better run together in Halle. The grass courts have long suited him simply because of the pop he gets out of the serve and Tsonga has held at least 90% of his service game in the last few seasons, although he did miss 2018.

A real reason he has not really been able to push on and put together long winning runs is the relatively limited return game, but Tsonga may have chances to use the pressure exerted from his serve to break down the game of his compatriot Benoit Paire.

Benoit Paire is off a very strong clay court season where he put plenty of wins together, but this is a player who still flatters to deceive more often than not. He hasn't had the worst time on the grass, but Benoit Paire's serve is not quite as strong as Tsonga's and he is not a totally productive returner to think he can overcome those issues.

He did beat Tsonga for the first time on the clay when coming from a set behind in early April, but I think this surface favours Tsonga much more than Paire. That was the first meeting since 2015 so head to head is not a massive advantage for Tsonga, although I do appreciate the fact he has looked after serve much more effectively in the main and has had his eye in on the Paire serve too.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a tie-breaker in one of the sets in this one, but I think the Tsonga serve will keep Paire under mental pressure of having to hold onto his own serve. That should play a part in the Tsonga win on Tuesday in this First Round match and I think he will also cover the number.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Taylor Fritz: There is no doubt that it is easy to get carried away by the big servers on a grass court because this is one surface where they do have the real ability to take the racquet out of the hands of an opponent. You could argue the same can be said for some of the hard courts out there, but grass has always felt like having that consistent element of one break of serving being enough to win sets.

Someone like Taylor Fritz certainly looks like he could be a solid enough grass court performer as he matures on the Tour, but I am not sure he is comfortable enough on the surface right now to be priced as he is for this match. Unsurprisingly Fritz does hold plenty of games on the grass, but I don't think having around an 80% hold number over the last three years is as good as it could be.

It certainly doesn't make his serve unbreakable and an opponent like Roberto Bautista Agut does have the returning to make life awkward. In general Bautista Agut manages to get plenty out of that aspect of his game on the grass courts and last year he was a Semi Finalist in Halle which shows he is more than a capable performer on courts where Spaniards can struggle.

The Bautista Agut serve is not the most reliable of shots, but he does get enough pop out of the first serve to really give Fritz some problems in this First Round match. While Bautista Agut has some strong returning numbers, Fritz has really struggled with his return on the grass courts in recent years and it can't be ignored that he broke in just 8% of return games played in Hertogenbosch last week.

One of those matches was against an opponent Ranked outside the top 200 and I think Fritz will struggle to back up the upset he had over Bautista Agut on the clay courts in mid-May. The Spaniard already earned a measure of revenge by crushing Fritz at the French Open, and I think it is important to note that Fritz has only broken in 6% of return games against Bautista Agut from their four previous matches against each other.

At the same time Bautista Agut is up at 21% of return games with breaks converted against the American and I like RBA to win and cover in the First Round in Halle.


Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: The 2017 Queens Champion has been given a Wild Card into the main draw in 2019, but Feliciano Lopez will be earning a lot more headlines when he partners Andy Murray in the Doubles as the former World Number 1 makes a return to the Tour. That is obviously going to be a fun experience for Lopez, but his main focus has to be putting a run together in London which will help reverse what is a slipping World Ranking.

These days Lopez is sitting outside the top 100 of the Rankings, but he is something of a grass court specialist and not someone that many players will want to oppose in the early Rounds either here or at Wimbledon next month. Last week Lopez was very, very unfortunate to go down to a loss to Lucas Pouille in Stuttgart having won a couple of Qualifiers to get into the main draw, but at least those wins will make him feel a little better about his game.

It is the Lopez serve that can lay the foundation for any success the Spaniard is going to have on the grass courts. In three of the last four seasons he has won at least 70% of points behind his serve which makes it very difficult to get into a position to break the Lopez serve, while last week he won 72% of points behind serve and managed to hold 96% of service games played.

This is the challenge that is in front of Marton Fucsovics who may be the higher Ranked player, but who has not had the same kind of success on the grass as Lopez has had. His return game wasn't in bad shape last week in Stuttgart before Fucsovics ran into the huge serving Milos Raonic and I think the difficulty he had against the Canadian could be replicated here.

The Fucsovics serve is going to have to be in good form to stay with Lopez, but he has not had nearly as much success holding serve on the grass. However I won't ignore the fact that Lopez is a pretty limited returner and rarely has massive success breaking serve.

With that said, I do think the Lopez serve is one that can put Fucsovics under the kind of mental pressure where he could be forced into mistakes on his own serve. He will need to get a high percentage of first serves in play and focus on the Lopez backhand, which really isn't a shot to be overly worried about, but any second serves will see the Spaniard try and get into the net and I think that will give him every chance of winning this match and covering this number of games.

It could be a damper day in London than it has been on Monday which may just reduce the potency of the Lopez serve, but if he is out there early enough I think he will have the edge in this one.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games v Kyle Edmund: This is an intriguing First Round match at Queens between two players who have looked a part of the 'Next Gen' stars on the ATP Tour, but neither have had a lot of success playing grass court tennis. Last week Stefanos Tsitsipas was beaten in his first match on the grass by Nicolas Jarry in Hertogenbosch, while Kyle Edmund returns to play his first competitive match since injury forced him out of the French Open.

Just because Edmund is from Great Britain the feeling is that he should be comfortable on the grass courts, but that has not been the case for him so far. 2018 was the first time Edmund had finished the grass court campaign with a winning record, but he remains 10-22 on the surface and the return of serve continues to be an issue for him.

I can't dismiss the Edmund serve if he is feeling healthy as there have been some real improvements out of that shot over the last couple of years. He is a tough player to break when he is feeling confident and I have long made it clear that Stefanos Tsitsipas is a player that will become as good as we think he can be when he is able to improve his returning numbers.

There isn't a great sample of matches that Tsitsipas has played on the grass courts to make sweeping statements, but I think there is something in the fact he has broken in 15% of return games played on the surface. In 2018 he improved the mark to 18% of return games ending with a break of serve, but that is very similar to the marks Tsitsipas has on the hard courts and there is definitely room to improve.

On this occasion it could be as much down to the fact that Edmund is not completely healthy which makes Tsitsipas an appealing back. The Tsitsipas serve is a potent weapon on every surface and that goes for the grass courts too and I would expect him to be able to put Edmund under pressure and find the breaks of serve he will need to cover this number.

It wouldn't surprise to see the match being a relatively short one as both players should be able to rattle through some service games very quickly. At the end of it I would expect the Greek star to be the one that earns the majority of the break points though and he can win and cover in this match.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Denis Shapovalov: The draw that has come together at Queens this week is an intriguing one and the layers are finding it very difficult pricing up potential winners. You can see the quality of the draw from some of the First Round matches we are getting and this one between Juan Martin Del Potro and Denis Shapovalov should feature plenty of big hitting.

Injuries have been a big factor in Del Potro's career and you can never be sure he is going into any time of the season feeling at 100%. At the French Open there were signs he was not at his best, but Del Potro has a very big game that can be difficult for opponents to deal with.

The Argentinian has also been comfortable on the grass courts for much of his career and he has some strong runs at Wimbledon which makes him a player that needs to be respected on this surface. No one should be surprised to read that the Del Potro serve is a huge weapon on the grass, but more impressive for me is seeing the relatively decent returning he is able to put together on the surface.

This is the least effective surface on which Del Potro returns in terms of the numbers, but I think many players will have more difficulty to find their breaks on the grass compared with the other surfaces. Del Potro is still someone who has regularly found breaks of serve in 20% of return games on the grass and coupled with his serve it makes him a tough player to beat.

Denis Shapovalov is a decent enough player on the grass too, but the young Canadian has just hit a wall in recent months as he struggles for the consistency you need on the main Tour. The lack of impact on the return of serve does put Shapovalov under pressure to serve up to a very high standard, but his numbers have not quite been able to reach the level he has needed to ensure he is putting wins on the board with regularity.

The lefty serve on the grass is a big weapon for Shapovalov, but the lack of confidence is a slight concern ahead of this match. Last week in Stuttgart Shapovalov gave up his serve a couple of times and in the two matches he has played against Del Potro he has only held 70% of the service games played against the Argentinian.

It adds up to potential problems for him in this First Round match in London and I think Del Potro can win and cover. My one concern is that Del Potro has not played well at Queens with a single Quarter Final from a number of appearances here, but I will look for him to get the better of the young Canadian he is facing on Tuesday.

MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 4.16 Units (16 Units Staked, + 26% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 18th)

After a mixed French Open with some bad selections in the second week of the tournament it was good to get the grass court season off to a strong start last week.

With plenty of winners in the books the season totals have been turned back into a positive position for the year and I am looking to build on that when two big ATP 500 events take place in Halle and Queens Club, while the WTA Tour takes in a big event in Birmingham and Mallorca.

There are a lot of big names out on the courts this past week including the new World Number 1 Roger Federer having won the tournament in Stuttgart on Sunday. However the big story has to be the return of Andy Murray who has almost filled a full year on the Tour with an injury that has taken longer to clear up than it was first expected to.

In Tennis I am not sure your favourite players have to come from the country you are born in and for me it is almost certainly the case that the ones I admire most don't come from Great Britain. However I have a lot respect for Andy Murray who has had a fantastic career and who broke through barriers many felt he would not have been able to do.

We may never see Murray back to his very best and in all honesty I am not sure how many more years he will take to the grind of the Tour.

But it is great to have him back and I hope Murray can go out on his own terms by putting together a couple of really strong years on the Tour.


Andy Murray is expected back on the court on Tuesday, but for now the Tennis Picks will concentrate on the matches scheduled on Monday on what looks a busy day through the four tournaments being played this week. I will have analysis of a few of the matches below and then add the remaining Tennis Picks in the 'MY PICKS' section.


Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 games v Cameron Norrie: The lay off from the Tour was not as long as the one Andy Murray has been through but Stan Wawrinka has struggled to find his best tennis since his own enforced break from playing competitive tennis. He had a brief return in 2018 before a few more weeks off the Tour and the subsequent return has been difficult for a multiple time former Grand Slam Champion.

An early loss in Paris has meant Wawrinka has had a little break from the Tour but at least this time he should have been able to practice and try and rebuild his confidence. It is going to take some time and Wawrinka may not be at his happiest on the grass courts, but I am going to back him to get the better of Cameron Norrie.

I have little doubt the home fans will get behind Norrie, but I also have to accept that this is a player whose background may be British but he has not spent a lot of time in the country. While other British players would have a strong grass court pedigree in terms of experience, Norrie can't say the same and even Wawrinka in his current state of mind should be a little too good for him here.

Last week Norrie was beaten in the Challenger event run in Nottingham and that has dropped him to 2-6 on the grass courts in the last thirteen months. The learning curve on the grass courts can be a tough one and an in-form Wawrinka would have been a strong favourite to beat him.

You can't ignore the doubts about Wawrinka's fitness going into the match, but playing matches is the best thing for the former top five Ranked player. Wawrinka can be very effective behind serve on the grass courts and I think he can put Norrie under some pressure with power off the ground that Wawrinka can generate.

Norrie is still learning to get the best out of his serve on the grass and I think Wawrinka is going to prove to be a little too good for him on the day.


Jared Donaldson v Francis Tiafoe: This is a very close match to predict with neither Jared Donaldson or Francis Tiafoe in great form or comfortable on the grass courts, but I did think it was Donaldson who deserved to be the favourite to win the match.

He has certainly shown a little more than his compatriot on the grass courts and so I would have had Donaldson a number of ticks shorter in the prices than you can find in this one.

In saying that Donaldson is not exactly someone you can trust fully to produce his best when he can struggle to hold his serve, but the run at the French Open has to have given him some confidence to take into the grass court season.

And where the difference can be made is through Donaldson's return game which looks to be superior to Francis Tiafoe's on the grass courts. Tiafoe has limited experience on this surface and it may be seen as a time of the season to get through as quickly as possible before both players will feel much happier about North American hard court tournaments in the build to the US Open.

Tiafoe could be comfortable facing Donaldson, which would help, but his numbers are weaker on the grass courts compared to his overall record over the last twelve months. I am not sure he will turn that around and backing Donaldson here has to be right play at the prices being offered.


Sam Querrey - 4.5 games v Jay Clarke: Coming off the clay courts and onto the grass courts is a blessing for someone like Sam Querrey who has consistently produced strong results on this surface. It is no surprise when you consider the huge weapon of a serve he possesses and the former Queens Club Champion is rightly a big favourite against the promising Jay Clarke.

Clarke is still only 19 years old and he has been granted a Wild Card into the main draw at Queens Club this week but he is yet to show the consistency to really expect any kind of upset here. In fact I think it would be a real surprise if Clarke was to even win a set against Querrey on Monday especially when you think he has already lost both grass court matches he has played this season.

The numbers don't make for great reading in those two losses, but the bigger concern for someone like Clarke is the limited success he has had on the return of serve. That is unlikely to have changed much after facing someone like Querrey and Clarke's only real hope is the first match back on the grass courts means the American is perhaps a little undercooked for this First Round encounter.

It has to be said that Querrey did not serve as well as he would have wanted on the grass courts last season, but it is still a huge strength of his game and I am not sure Clarke will even earn a break point in this one. What is more interesting is whether Querrey can return anywhere like as effectively as he did last year on a surface where you would think his limited return game would not have a lot of success.

If he does then Querrey is going to have a big chance to breeze through this match, but I have a feeling his numbers will definitely slip back to the normal levels. However this is not an opponent who should cause too many problems for Querrey and Clarke will have to play a lot higher than his usual level to stay in this match.

Ultimately I am not sure he does that having lost to two players far below the level that Querrey can produce and I think the American breaks down the young British player and covers what does look a big number on paper.


Robin Haase - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: The last couple of times Robin Haase and Joao Sousa have met on the Tour have ended in wins for the Portuguese player, but the match on the grass courts in the First Round in Halle should favour Haase.

Neither player has a deep grass court pedigree which makes it tough to pick the winner, but Haase has had a couple of matches on the surface and generally plays better than Sousa does on this surface.

Since June 2017 Haase has produced some very strong serving numbers on the grass courts and that has to give him a chance to put some scoreboard pressure on Sousa. With an 88% hold percentage in those grass court matches Haase will feel he can make it very difficult for Sousa to break him especially with the way the latter has been returning on the grass courts in recent years.

One of the main reasons Haase has not been able to produce more wins is down to his own limited return game, but you do have to think he can have more joy against a vulnerable looking Sousa serve. You do have to give Sousa some credit for some strong numbers on the grass courts behind the serve, but there will be moments when he can put a few too many errors together and that should mean Haase has his chances to break the serve here.

The recent head to head has to be a concern but I think the surface is going to send the edge to Haase in the First Round match scheduled for Monday. Sousa has not bettered a combined 94% hold/break percentage over the last three years on the grass courts and that is a huge part of my selection which favours Haase who has played well without the results following on the grass.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: It was a difficult time for Roberto Bautista Agut who took to the courts in Paris just days after the passing of his mother in unexpected circumstances. You could see the emotion the Spaniard was playing with and he has had a couple of weeks to really come to terms with the loss of a parent.

This is a difficult moment for anyone in any walk of life but for athletes it is something that is played out on a worldwide platform as you have to perform in front of the paying public while dealing with a very private issue.

That is the case for Bautista Agut on his return to the Tour after the French Open but he seems to be a level headed player and I am backing him with the belief that he will be able to produce something like his best tennis. Bautista Agut has admitted he gets away from his real life when on the tennis court and his record on the grass courts suggests he can beat the home player Jan-Lennard Struff.

Bautista Agut did not have the best 2016 on the grass courts, but generally he has been very comfortable on the grass with some strong hold/break combined percentages in his matches. In 2018 Bautista Agut was back to the decent returning which makes him a tough out for anyone and I certainly think he is better on the grass than someone like Struff who was upset in the First Round in Stuttgart last week.

The defeat last week means Struff is just 3-13 on the grass courts since June 2014 and the main reason for that is the poor returning numbers he has produced. The German is still getting decent effort from the serve, but he has struggled with the combined hold/break percentage thanks to some subpar returning.

The Spaniard has won both previous matches between these two very comfortably and I think Bautista Agut's stronger grass court pedigree gets him through the First Round.


Denis Kudla - 2.5 games v Lukas Lacko: This is a rematch of a grass court match that took place in Surbiton a couple of weeks ago and I think Denis Kudla can frank that win against Lukas Lacko.

It was a dominant win the American produced against Lacko and his grass court numbers in 2018 have been very impressive as Kudla has racked up the wins.

The majority of the wins earned by Kudla have either come at the Challenger level or in the Qualifiers for the main ATP events. That is something to consider whenever Kudla plays the better opponents on the Tour, but Lacko is someone who is also very much on the same kind of level as the opponents Kudla has been beating.

Lacko has produced some strong numbers himself which makes him a dangerous opponent for Kudla, but the return game is a real weakness and that could be the difference on the day. The American has held 93% of service games on the grass courts in 2018 and that kind of success will put Lacko under some immense pressure which saw him collapse in their match in Surbiton.

I fully expect this match to be much closer than that one was, but I also like Kudla to frank his win with another one here and I think he can do enough to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jared Donaldson @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Robin Haase - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Kudla - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 12.72 Units (891 Units Staked, + 1.43% Yield)

World Cup 2018 Group Picks (June 14th-June 19th)

The World Cup is here and I have to admit it feels a lot longer than four years ago Brazil were swept aside in stunning fashion in the World Cup Semi Final.

That has to be the most memorable World Cup game I will ever see but I can see Brazil exorcising some of the demons with a strong performance in Russia this summer. They form part of my outright picks for the tournament which can be read here.

The first round of Group games begin on Thursday and will be played across six days as all of the Groups get underway. I've always loved the Group Stage of these major tournaments with plenty of football to sink your teeth into every day for two weeks and this has also been the time of a major tournament that I have targeted for going to these events.

Manchester United are the only team I care about deeply, so I can enjoy international football for what it is rather than the stresses that can come with club football.

This is a tournament I have been looking forward to and I really hope it does not disappoint.


The Group Stage is effectively split into three round robin matches and my threads for the Picks for the tournament will be cut up with those in mind.

That means the first thread covers the first round robin of games through to Tuesday 19th June.

After that I will have a thread for the second round robin of games from Tuesday 19th June through to Sunday 24th June and a final thread for the third round robin of games from Monday 25th June through to the end of the Groups on Thursday 28th June.

From there it will be one thread for the Second Round Picks, Quarter Final Picks, Semi Final Pick and then the Final and that should mean it is easier to follow the Picks for readers rather than a huge thread covering the whole tournament or the whole Group Stage.

And now let the feast of football begin.


Thursday 14th June
Russia v Saudi Arabia Pick: In recent years we have seen a number of host nations who will have been Seeded at the World Cup despite not being considered one of the elite teams in international football. That happened in 2002, 2010 and now in 2018 as the lowest of the FIFA Ranked teams playing at the World Cup Finals also have the privilege of hosting the tournament and playing in the opening World Cup fixture.

There isn't much excitement around the chances of Russia having a major impact at the World Cup Finals but they could not have asked for a better Group if they are being honest.

Even then I don't think there is any real belief outside of the dressing room that Russia are guaranteed to avoid the pitfalls suffered by South Africa and become just the second host nation to be beaten in the Group Stage of the World Cup Finals.

Make no mistake about it, Russia HAVE to win the opening game to have any real ambitions of making it out of this Group with the two tougher fixtures to come.

Saudi Arabia won't like being dismissed, but you can't ignore the difference in quality of this team when playing at home and away. It was seen throughout the World Cup Qualifying campaign as they needed late goals to come from behind and beat Iraq and two more late goals to finish off Thailand, but Saudi Arabia were beaten in both Japan and Australia.

Scoring goals wasn't the problem though and I think this could be the fourth straight opening World Cup game which sees both teams scoring after a long run where goals came at a premium in the first game. I expect Saudi Arabia to challenge a Russian backline which is lacking pace and this is a team who have scored in recent friendlies against Italy and Germany so playing Russia should not hold that many fears.

Russia themselves have conceded in friendly games to the likes of Iran and Turkey so it wouldn't be a big surprise if they did in this one too, although I do think the home nation can use the support of the crowd to rally together and find the big effort for the win.

Looking back at the Confederations Cup from last year, Russia did handle the occasion to beat New Zealand 2-0 but it was a close match and New Zealand had their chances too. This has the makings of a close one too and while some will decide to simply stick with both teams scoring, I am going to instead have a small interest in Russia winning a match in which both teams score.


Friday 15th June
Egypt v Uruguay Pick: The big story for the majority of fans in this Group is surrounding the availability of Mohamed Salah who is as key for Egypt as he is for Liverpool and offers their best chance of progressing out of this Group.

Prior to the injury in the Champions League Final I think Egypt would have been a popular pick to beat out Russia and join opponents Uruguay in the Last 16. It does look like Salah is going to be able to play in this Group opener, but he has to be careful with the Uruguay and Russian defenders ones who would have studied at the Sergio Ramos School of Defending and likely to leave something on the star player for Egypt.

In all honest Egypt go as far as Salah can take them as they will look to be defensively organised and hope their best player can provide the magic in the final third to break down opponents. It is a tactic that can work, but I think Egypt's best chances will come later in the Group when they face Russia and Saudi Arabia with Salah's pace likely to frighten the hosts to death.

That is for another day and in this one I think Egypt will try and frustrate a Uruguay team that is hard to read. They have talent in defensive and forward areas, but a young midfield is going to be tested on the World level for the first time and much of Uruguay's success will come down to how effective those players can be.

I think Uruguay will win this Group and I also think there is a Quarter Final team here, but they won't have it easy in the first game. Egypt will be tough to break down, but I do worry about the goal threat they can offer in this game having failed to score in friendly games against Colombia and Belgium without Salah.

I can't believe Salah is at full strength for this one and so I am going to back Uruguay to win a game which features less than four goals. I can't imagine Uruguay hammering Egypt and at odds against this looks a decent way to get behind them knowing a 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 set of scorelines are behind me.


Morocco v Iran Pick: When you take a look at Group B you have to imagine both Morocco and Iran are under no illusions as to their chances of splitting the two Iberian neighbours and earning their place in the Last 16. Anything less than a win on Friday will put Morocco and Iran under real pressure to earn a victory against either Portugal or Spain to have any hope of progressing out of the Group and so this game is going to take on huge significance for both.

The team that deals with that pressure the best is going to be the one that comes away with the important three points and my lean is very towards Morocco who could be one of the upset specials of the Group Stage.

Morocco are considered by many as the top African representative at the World Cup this summer and an 18 game unbeaten run will have given them plenty of confidence to take into the Finals. There was the blow of losing the bid to host the 2026 World Cup a couple of days before this World Cup game, but that shouldn't affect the players who will want to show their team is improving on the pitch having not reached the World Cup since 1998.

They were great fun to watch back then, but this Morocco team has a little more steel about them which is going to be huge for them to upset the odds and get out of the Group. Morocco did not concede a goal in their final World Cup Qualifying Group despite having the likes of Ivory Coast and Mali to compete with, and they have enough in the forward areas to believe they can break down opponents despite some of the resolute defending they will face in this Group.

Iran will be the first challenge and you cannot dismiss the work Carlos Queiroz has done with this nation which could be the best of the Asian Qualifiers. Like we saw four years ago, Iran will be set up to be well organised defensively and that means they deserve our respect having drawn 0-0 with Nigeria and lost 1-0 to Argentina in the Group Stage in Brazil in 2014.

The defeat to Argentina came very late on and it took a huge moment of Lionel Messi magic, but that shows Iran could definitely upset one or two teams in this World Cup. The main problem for Iran will always be a lack of goals and 10 goals scored in their final 10 World Cup Qualifiers indicates it is still something Queiroz is yet to resolve.

In the opener the players will be at 100% when it comes to concentration and effort which will make it very tough for Morocco, but I am guessing Iran do have some ambitions of their own. If that is the case there may be more spaces as Queiroz will know a draw is not really that positive of a result if Iran want to get out of the Group and that being true will give Morocco every chance of the win.

I don't imagine seeing a glut of goals in this one, but it may be better on the eye than expected with the opportunity both teams have to get this World Cup off to a win. I lean towards the organised Morocco having a touch more quality in the final third than Iran, but I will back them on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw.


Portugal v Spain Pick: Going into the World Cup I was pretty happy looking to lay Portugal from even getting out of the Group Stage considering how poorly the European Champions have played at the next World Cup. Four of the last six European Champions have not made it through to the Second Round at the next World Cup Finals which includes the likes of Spain and France and I wasn't convinced this Portugal side were guaranteed a spot in the next Round.

Much of that feels a lot more cloudy now and that is very much down to the Spanish Football Association decision to sack Julen Lopetegui on the eve of the World Cup Finals after it was announced the manager would be leaving to take over as Real Madrid manager after this tournament was completed.

It is now very hard to know how Spain will react and it really does feel like an event which could see the players rally together or bomb out immediately. On paper Spain have a very talented starting eleven which made them amongst the favourites to win the tournament, but the Lopetegui situation and the uneasy alliance of the Barcelona and Real Madrid players in the squad could all come to a head in Russia.

Four years ago Spain were dumped out in the Group Stage, but I think this game will give us a very good indication of how they are going to react in this tournament. I fancied Spain to beat Portugal going into the tournament and the drift on the Spanish prices are just appealing enough to at least risk backing them in some way to win this fixture.

Portugal's recent World Cup record is far from the most admirable and I can't help but think about the team winning Euro 2016 with just a single win in normal time in seven matches played there. They finished with three Group Stage draws and Portugal have won just 2 of their last 10 World Cup games in normal time.

The European Champions did score plenty of goals in their World Cup Qualifiers, but Fernando Santos is very much likely to go back to his cautious approach in the opener and hope to nick something with Cristiano Ronaldo on the break. Portugal didn't score in three of their seven Euro 2016 games in normal time and I imagine the game plan will be to prevent Spain from creating too much and hoping the counter attack is good enough to steal something on the break.

The uncertainty about Spain does make it tough to get a real good read on the game, but I imagine it will be low-scoring and I think the Spanish can narrowly earn the success. Spain beat Portugal 1-0 at the 2010 World Cup and the teams then played out a draw in the Euro 2012 tournament in a match Spain won on penalties. With that in mind I am going to have a small interest on Spain winning a game featuring two or fewer goals.


Saturday 16th June
This is THE day in the World Cup Finals where most football fans will be clearing the diary.

It is the only one featuring four fixtures played on the same day beginning with an 11am start for those in the United Kingdom and playing on through to close to 10pm in the evening.

France v Australia Pick: This opening game in Group C is expected to feature the team who will win the Group and the one that most will pick for bottom place, but I doubt it will all go swimmingly well for France.

There is some real pressure on Didier Deschamps to get the best out of this squad which should be capable of going all the way to the World Cup Final for the first time since 2006. Four years ago a young, inexperienced squad were beaten the World Cup Quarter Final, but two years ago they were Euro 2016 Finalists at home and France are expected to have used those experiences to peak for this tournament.

You have to like the starting eleven and there aren't too many weaknesses, but France will have to be careful in this Group to avoid any pitfalls. They are big favourites to see off Australia in this opening World Cup game and I do fully expect France to take the three points, but Australia will look to make life difficult for them through sheer hard work and there is an attacking threat that will have to be negated.

Australia showed that at the Confederations Cup twelve months ago when being involved in games that featured both teams scoring against Germany, Chile and Cameroon in the Group Stage. Since then they have changed managers with Bert van Marwijk taking over from Ange Postecoglu, but van Marwijk's Saudi Arabia were another team involved in plenty of games where both teams scored during the recent World Cup Qualifiers.

Scoring against France won't be easy for Australia, but I do think they can play their part here with the threat posed from set pieces a test for France who are missing Laurent Koscielny's leadership at the back. The Aussies also scored against Chile and the Netherlands in the World Cup four years ago, but they were involved in losing efforts in those games as well as when going down 3-2 to Germany at the Confederations Cup last year.

France's quality should see them get past Australia, but two years ago they conceded to the likes of Romania and Iceland at Euro 2016 on home soil and backing the French to win a game in which both teams score is worthy of a small interest.


Argentina v Iceland Pick: On paper this looks an absolute mismatch when you think the two time former World Cup Champions are taking on a team with the smallest population who have ever Qualified for the World Cup Finals.

Football is never played on paper though.

Argentina will be under huge expectations to deliver at the World Cup Finals but they look very short in the outright markets when you think of how erratically they played in the World Cup Qualifiers. In recent years Argentina have come very close to winning a big prize in either the Copa America or the World Cup with three consecutive defeats in the Final of those competitions, but it does feel like the window for success for this current crop of players has closed.

Of course Lionel Messi is capable of turning on the magic and helping Argentina come through a difficult Group and make a big run again, but defensively they look very vulnerable. Any thoughts of overlooking Iceland will quickly come back to haunt Argentina who look a little undercooked for the World Cup Finals having played just a single friendly since March.

Two years ago Iceland stunned all of Europe with their run to the Quarter Final of Euro 2016 and this is a team who are capable of upsetting 'bigger' nations with their team bond a key to the success. Iceland won't be ashamed of letting Argentina have the ball and look to counter with direct football, while they are a team that will be confident whenever they get set pieces to deliver into the box.

Recent friendly results have not been the best but they had lost 6 of 9 friendlies ahead of Euro 2016 and that didn't seem to have an affect on the performances in the Finals.

Getting out of the Group will be a big challenge for Iceland but I expect they can give Argentina a scare here and backing both teams to score looks a very big price to me. At the Euro 2016 tournament Iceland scored and conceded in games against Portugal, France and England which suggests finding chances in this game with Argentina is far from beyond their capabilities.

Holding Argentina out won't be easy but I don't think Iceland roll over for them and this could be one of the real surprises of the opening World Cup games.

However the pick from the game is looking for both teams to score at the appealing prices you can, even if that price has just come in slightly in the last couple of days. It should be a close game overall and Argentina may edge Iceland out with their superior attacking talent, but Iceland showed in Euro 2016 they can take the limited chances that come their way and I think this will be a decent watch on Saturday afternoon.


Peru v Denmark Pick: With France very much expected to be the team to beat in Group C it does look like the second place in this section is very up for grabs between the three remaining nations in the Group. Two of those will be looking to grab the edge in the opening game between Peru and Denmark and I think this has the makings of being a very, very interesting game on Saturday.

Neither team has a lot of major international tournament experience sprinkled in their respective squads, although Peru have made it through to the Quarter Final of the last eight Copa America tournaments played. That has to be given plenty of respect and especially when you think how Peru were flying in the closing of the World Cup Qualifiers that allowed them to finish above Chile and then beat New Zealand in a Play Off to take their place in Russia.

The fans have really made an effort to travel for Peru too and the dismissal of the suspension handed out to Paolo Guerrero has given this nation plenty to be excited about going into the opening World Cup game.

However Denmark will be just as confident having turned things around in their own World Cup Qualifying Group and having crushing wins over the likes of Poland and Republic of Ireland to help Qualify for the World Cup Finals. It has been some time since Denmark were competing at this level but they are a team who can score goals and who could have a significant impact in Russia this summer.

Peru scored plenty of goals, but also conceded plenty in the World Cup Qualifiers and I think their style is going to lead to some entertaining games when they are playing. They have every chance of upsetting Denmark, but have to be aware of the qualities of Christian Eriksen from set pieces which is a very strong way of unlocking this Peru team.

On the other side of the field I do think Peru can pose problems for Denmark too and I do think both nations will be looking for a vital three points which could ease their tensions when playing France later in the section. This was a fixture I had highlighted as one of the more high-scoring ones I am expecting to see in the first round robin of Group games and I am going to back seeing at least three goals shared out.


Croatia v Nigeria Pick: The preparation for the World Cup Finals has not been ideal for Croatia who have seen a long trial involving Zdravko Mamic come to an end this past couple of weeks, although one that has dragged the reputations of the likes of Dejan Lovren and Luka Modric through the mud. The hope for the fans is that Croatia can maintain their composure amidst the fire and not allow age old tensions to prevent them producing their best in Russia.

Two years ago the fans made it very clear how disappointed they felt when causing a disruption in Croatia's Euro 2016 Group game against the Czech Republic and there have to be some fears of similar scenes at the World Cup.

One nation who can sympathise with off field dramas affecting preparations is Nigeria, but this current crop of players have perhaps come in with the most serene preparations ever. Usually there are big debates at this time whether Nigeria will even turn up to play that involves not being paid their bonuses in time, but this year that has all been settled months before the tournament.

The friendly results have not really been that positive for Nigeria over the last few months, but they weren't in great nick four years ago and managed to come out of their World Cup Group and reach the Last 16 for the third time in five World Cup appearances. Doing that again would be a big achievement for Nigeria, but losing the opening game would put them behind the black ball immediately.

On paper you would think Croatia are going to be too good for Nigeria, but they have a poor recent World Cup record and the off field issues can't be ignored easily. I would still expect Croatia to dominate the ball with their midfield looking very strong, but Nigeria have the pace to hurt them on the counter attack and I do think the latter can pose problems for them.

The goalkeeping situation is a concern for Nigeria so it is hard to see Croatia failing to score in this one, but the African team can also play their part.

With the pace in the forward areas I expect Nigeria will give Croatia something to think about too and backing the two teams to both score at odds against looks the play.


Sunday 17th June
Costa Rica v Serbia Pick: Most will expect Brazil to be challenging for the World Cup title in mid-July so this Group E looks like one where only place is up for grabs between the three nations behind Brazil.

Four years ago Costa Rica surprised everyone by finishing above Uruguay, Italy and England in the Group Stage as a 50-1 shot and they would receive plenty of plaudits for the hard work that took them to the Quarter Final. While you would expect to see the transition of a squad in the time between World Cups, that has not been the case for Costa Rica and the prevailing feeling is that they are a squad on the decline having peaked in Brazil.

That is a worry for Costa Rica in a tough section and the key is to avoid a poor start considering the fixtures have set them up to play Brazil in the second round of Group games. You would almost feel a draw is not good enough for Costa Rica, but a defeat would almost certainly spell the end for them in this Group after just a single game was in the books.

They are actually playing the lowest Seed in the Group, although more than that is expected of Serbia who are back in the World Cup after going out in the Group Stage in 2010. Serbia have failed to reach their potential in the years between South Africa and Russia, but there is some young talent being given an opportunity to announce themselves on the world stage in this World Cup.

It's hard to get a read on them because they have recently changed manager and have been so inconsistent. One week Serbia are beating Nigeria and hammering Bolivia, but another they are losing to Morocco and to a much changed Chile team so it is difficult to really pinpoint what you are going to get from them in the World Cup.

Inconsistency is an apt way to describe Costa Rica too, but they are defensively sound for the most part and that could see the Central American nation grab a result here. On the other hand Serbia have some issues to address at the back, but look to be solid enough going forward which suggests these teams could cancel one another out.

Goals may be at a premium between these two nations in a game where one goal could be enough to separate them. With the tension both Costa Rica and Serbia will feel to get a result it could be a game where their strengths and weaknesses are matched up and will make it tough to find a winner. I think having a small interest in there being one or fewer goals shared out looks the way to go here.


Germany v Mexico Pick: The host nation gets to open the World Cup these days, but prior to 2006 it was the defending Champions who were given that honour. I don't think Germany will mind beginning the defence of their World Cup on the fourth day of the Finals beginning, and this is a team that looks capable of winning it all again.

Twelve months ago Germany hammered Mexico on the way to winning the Confederations Cup and a stronger looking squad is set to play in Russia this time around. The depth is such that the likes of Leroy Sane have not been asked to travel and I don't think anyone will be putting a lot of stock into the poor run of results in international friendlies prior to the beginning of the World Cup.

Prior to the 2014 World Cup Germany had won half of 6 international friendlies and so I am not sure we can use the friendlies this time around to really judge where they stand.

What I do know is that Germany tend to peak for these tournaments and they have regularly reached the business end of major tournaments for the last twelve years. From front to back they look like a team with lots of quality and I think Germany can make a very positive start to the World Cup when they face Mexico.

In the Confederations Cup Semi Final a strong looking Mexico team were beaten 4-1 by Germany and manager Juan Carlos Osorio remains under pressure. It says something when the final international friendly before the World Cup Finals sees the passionate Mexican fans boo their team off the pitch and I would be surprised if Osorio is still in charge at the end of the Finals.

While they look good enough to still get out of the Group, Mexico have regularly found the top teams too much and some of the losses have tended to be very comfortable for those nations. They can be a team that is technically very good to watch but I do worry about Mexico from a defensive stand point against the best teams and Germany are certainly one who can win this game very comfortably if they are firing in front of goal.

With the talent Germany have it is hard to see them failing to do that and I do like Germany winning this match by a couple of goals on the day.


Brazil v Switzerland Pick: On Sunday two of the favourites for the World Cup will both kick off and it is Brazil who follow Germany onto the field to get their own Finals underway. Make no mistake this is a chance to exorcise some demons after the horrific way the 2014 World Cup ended on home soil for Brazil and the fans will accept nothing less than a World Cup win to erase those painful memories.

For most of these players they won't be tarnished by the performance in the World Cup Semi Final four years ago, but that doesn't mean they won't have been stung by the result. Neymar was there but an injury meant he was ruled out of the tournament after the Quarter Final and he will come to Russia to try and show what may have happened if he had been fit for the remainder of the 2014 tournament.

The appointment of Tite has raised expectations for Brazil as he has released the handbrake which had been permanently put in place by former manager Dunga and which had seen Brazil slip to an embarrassing Copa America Group Stage exit a couple of years ago. That was the low point for the nation and Tite has managed to pick them up and produce a strong run which has seen Brazil enter the World Cup as the favourites.

Brazil have been in fine form at the front and back and they look a much more solid team all around than 2014 and certainly are the pick of the teams as far as I am concerned. I do expect they make a positive start against a tough Switzerland team who have only lost 1 of their last 9 major tournament games in normal time.

Two years ago it was Poland beating Switzerland on penalties in Euro 2016, while Argentina needed an extra time winner against them in Brazil four years ago. They Qualified behind Portugal having to come through a World Cup Play Off, but Switzerland recently held Spain in a friendly which means they deserve respect.

However they rode their luck in that game and I am not sure they can do that again when they face a Brazil team who have scored at least twice in five of their last seven games and clearly playing with confidence. Switzerland will work hard and they will try and get something from a set piece or a mistake Brazil make, but it looks a long shot and I like Brazil to win this opening World Cup game and winning by a comfortable margin on Sunday evening too.


Monday 18th June
Sweden v South Korea Pick: Any team that beats out the Netherlands and Italy to make it to the World Cup Finals has to be respected, although the Sweden form since those successes has been mixed to say the least.

A lack of goals makes it difficult to believe in Sweden when it comes to making it out of a difficult looking Group F, but they can make a very good start to section by winning this game.

I think the Sweden physicality is going to be tough for South Korea to deal with at any time, but this current squad is lacking some confidence and their World Cup Qualifying campaign was erratic to say the least.

South Korea have been struggling defensively which will give Sweden a chance in this one, and I also think the way Sweden will be set up will be difficult for South Korea to have a lot of success on the other side of the field.

My lean has been towards Sweden since the fixtures have been announced and their goalless draws against Denmark and Peru in international friendlies prior to the tournament suggests Sweden remain solid enough defensively against an opponent like South Korea. However Sweden are unlikely to blow any team away and it looks a very tempting price to back them to win a game which features less than four goals.


Belgium v Panama Pick: Group G looks like a section that will be very much dominated by the two European teams in the Group while it has to be said that Panama look some way short of the quality required at this level.

They will be entering a baptism by fire in the first World Cup game when taking on the talent of Belgium who have begun to get a reputation for being flat track bullies. While Belgium have come up short in major international Finals in the last four years, they have recorded thumping wins over the Republic of Ireland and Hungary at Euro 2016 and then plundered 43 goals in 10 World Cup Qualifiers to get to Russia.

Heavy wins over Egypt and Costa Rica in the days before the World Cup will have raised hopes this team can match Belgium's 1986 squad that made the World Cup Semi Final, but the bigger tests for Roberto Martinez will come after this Group is concluded.

I can't see Belgium slipping up in this section and instead I think they will prove far too strong for Panama to open the tournament. With the attackers at his disposal and a 3-4-3 system which gets the best out of them I think Belgium are going to produce one of the bigger wins in the opening round of games which can be tight affairs.

That is no disrespect to Panama who have done wonderfully to make it to Russia for the World Cup Finals for the first time. However an older squad is going to be chasing shadows in this one and I can only see them being worn down by the talented Belgium attackers.

The crushing win Belgium had over Costa Rica, albeit in a friendly setting, will not bode well for Panama who finished with a minus goal difference in the final World Cup Qualifying Group. A 6-0 loss to Switzerland in a friendly shows how things could potentially go wrong for Panama and I do think Belgium win by a handy margin.

Backing them to cover the Asian Handicap means a return of the stakes if Belgium only win by a two goal margin, but I expect more from them and think they can cover in this one.


Tunisia v England Pick: On the 15th June 1998 England and Tunisia met in the World Cup opening Group game in a match that was won by the English 2-0 and a little over twenty years later they meet again on the world stage.

The expectations on both nations are significantly different than that day in Marseille, but the majority of fans would expect the outcome to be very similar.

Tunisia have shown they are a much improved team in the last few years and some of their friendly performances have to have given England and Belgium food for thought in this Group. In particular are the way Tunisia played against Portugal and Spain and that shows a squad that will believe they can challenge the European teams they face in this Group in Russia.

Losing Youssef Mskani to injury has clearly derailed some of the plans Nabil Maalou had for his team, but Tunisia will look to frustrate their opponents and potentially break on the counter to steal a result or two.

It certainly means England need to be careful in this opening Group game but the recent performances have been positive enough. The three at the back system has seen England be relatively strong and I think they will be able to cope with any false nine system employed by Tunisia, while the attacking players like Jesse Lingard and Raheem Sterling offer pace in forward areas to break down the Tunisian defensive shape.

An England defeat is hard to envision here, but I don't think this will be an easy game for them at all judging by the way Tunisia played against Portugal and Spain. The latter game was against a strong looking Spain team and it took a late goal to earn the win on that day, and so England will have to be very careful of this Tunisia team they will be expected to beat.

However I do think England will be able to do that despite their recent poor tournament record which has seen them win 1 of their last 8 major tournament games. Even that came with an injury time winner against Wales and they have also won just 1 of their last 8 World Cup games going back to 2006, but this current squad doesn't have the mental scars that others before them did have.

My feeling is that it will help England win this one by a narrow margin which would be perfect for Gareth Southgate even if the press are not going to anoint him the Messiah for that result. They have played well enough defensively to think they can contain the Tunisia threat and England have enough pace in the attacking areas to create a couple of big chances which can help them win this game.

I don't think it will be a high-scoring game so backing England to win a match featuring three or fewer goals looks the play for me here.


Tuesday 19th June
Colombia v Japan Pick: Group H looks to be a very tight Group when it comes to determining the top two teams to come out of the section, but I am very much of the belief that Japan will struggle to compete with the nations involved.

This is not a great Japanese squad and the decision to sack a manager in April with just two months to prepare for the World Cup Finals is not a great look for Japan.

While new manager Akira Nishino is trying to get Japan back to playing what has been a traditional style of football, the recent friendly results have not offered a lot of encouragement. Beating an underprepared Paraguay was a good way to go into a game with another South American nation, but losses to Ukraine, Ghana and Switzerland suggests Japan will come up short.

They also have to avoid memories of four years ago when they were crushed 4-1 by Colombia in their last World Cup game as they open the Group facing the same nation. The scoreline was perhaps flattering for Colombia when you think they scored a couple of late goals, but once again this nation arrives at the World Cup Finals with a real belief they can have an impact on the tournament.

Four years ago they made the Quarter Final, but doubts about the full fitness of James Rodriguez is a slight concern. He should still be ready to go on Tuesday but there is also the matter of poor goalless draws with Australia and Egypt in preparation for the World Cup Finals which makes Colombia look a vulnerable favourite to win this Group.

I do think they will still be too good for a Japan team but those results are a concern for a nation that made hard work of Qualifying and perhaps lacked a cutting edge. I don't think Japan will defend well enough to prevent Colombia winning this opening Group game, but the later challenges against Senegal and Poland will be much tougher.


Poland v Senegal Pick: The expectation is that Japan will be the team to beat in this Group but the other three nations are very closely matched. The draw has pitted Poland and Senegal together for the opening game in the Group and I do think this is going to be a very interesting match for both teams.

You have to like the quality Poland have in the attacking areas and they have to have been given a boost by the run to the Euro 2016 Quarter Final two years ago, especially as they were only beaten on penalties by the eventual winners of the tournament.

Poland made light work of their Qualifying Group for the World Cup Finals, but there have been some poor results too, none more so than the 4-0 defeat to Denmark. That was part of the 14 goals conceded in Qualifiers which is the most of the European Qualifiers and recent friendly results have suggested Poland have yet to get it right defensively.

Whether Senegal are good enough to expose those issues is a little more difficult to get a read on. They came out a weak final Qualifying Group and while having the likes of Sadio Mane, Senegal look like a team who will sometimes look a little ponderous in attacking situations.

The lack of goals has been a feature of their recent international friendlies but I do think they get more out of this Poland defence which has conceded twice to South Korea and Chile in recent friendly games. Neither team will want to lose which may mean a more cautious first game, but I do think there is enough attacking talent out on the field which could mean backing at least three goals is the way to go.

MY PICKS: Russia to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 4.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Uruguay to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Morocco - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Spain to Win & Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.75 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
France to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 3.70 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Argentina-Iceland Both Teams to Score @ 2.62 William Hill (2 Units)
Peru-Denmark Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Croatia-Nigeria Both Teams to Score @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Costa Rica-Serbia Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Germany - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brazil - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sweden to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.55 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Belgium - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
England to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Colombia to Win @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Poland-Senegal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Group Stage Round Robin One Update: 8-8, + 5.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 18.71% Yield)