World Cup 2018 Outright Picks (June 15-July 15)

World Cup 2018 Outright Preview and Picks

It is hard to think that four years have gone by since the World Cup began in Brazil and ended in such disappointing style for the hosts.

Brazil will head to Russia looking to make up for the disappointment of another home World Cup failure having done the same in 1950, but there are considerable European hopes going to the World Cup Finals too. History dictates that the home continent tends to provide the winner, but Germany proved four years ago that it isn't a must for any team.

In recent years I have been a little disappointed by the World Cup in terms of what to expect going into the tournament, which may have something to do with the quality we get to see in the Champions League year in year out. The majority of the biggest names in world football play in the Champions League too so the international scene has begun to suffer.

However this may be the best World Cup we see in years with a huge number of teams who look to have peaked for the event. Double digit winners are not really found in the World Cup as they are in the European Championship, but this could be the year it changes with the likes of Belgium and Portugal at big prices as well as Uruguay who could be the surprise package of the tournament.

Below I will take a look at each of the Groups at the World Cup Finals and try and see what kind of selections I like in the outright markets, the top goalscorer as well as individual team and Group selections.

During the World Cup I will split my daily selection into three Group threads covering each match day for the Groups in one thread. There will then be a Second Round, Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final thread to break up the tournament and the selections which make it much easier to read and follow.

A festival of football could await in Russia with everything kicking off on Thursday.

Group A

The hosts of the World Cup Finals have been placed in the first Group of the tournament but many have suggested this could be the weakest host we have seen in the history of the World Cup.

That looks a touch harsh on Russia when you consider South Korea, Japan and South Africa have all hosted the World Cup in the last twenty years, but also gives an indication of how little expectation there is of the host nation.

It has been tough graft for Russia since the break up of the USSR and three Group Stage exits at the World Cup Finals beginning in 1994 won't offer much encouragement. Since reaching the 2008 European Championship Semi Finals they have also suffered back to back exits in the Group Stage of the European Championships, while falling out of the Confederations Cup last year at the same Stage has seen people lose faith in Russia.

In saying that Russia could not have hand picked a much better draw and the injury suffered by Mohamed Salah in Liverpool's Champions League Final defeat to Real Madrid only increased the chances of Russia to get out of the Group. That will have seen the whole of Egypt hold their collective breath, although news has been good that Salah is unlikely to miss even one World Cup game.

Salah was huge in helping Egypt simply make it back to the World Cup Finals having last appeared in 1990 and the lack of real impact outside of the African continent has to be a worry. Since then Egypt have won the African Cup of Nations on four different occasions but they will have to find a way to get the best out of Salah here as they look to oust Russia who look their most likely contenders for the second spot in the Group.

That suggestion comes down to being placed in the same Group as one of the dark horses at the World Cup Finals Uruguay who will be very pleased with the draw considering they were not a top Seed. There is so much to like about Uruguay who came through a tough South American Qualifying Group with some ease and have begun to transition their squad with the arrival of some talented young players.

Uruguay still rely very much on the old guard of Diego Godin, Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani and will go as far as those three players can take them. However they do look a solid unit around those three players and this is a nation that has been placed in one of the weaker Groups with the potential to reach at least the Quarter Finals in the draw if the younger players can deal with the pressure of playing in a World Cup.

Without a doubt the outsiders look to be Saudi Arabia with many suggesting this could be the weakest nation playing in the Finals. A strong home record helped Saudi Arabia upset Australia for automatic Qualification to the World Cup, but they are a team who have struggled when playing away from Jeddah and also have to face the intense situations of playing the hosts in their opening World Cup game.

In 1994 Saudi Arabia stunned to reach the Second Round of the World Cup Finals, but they have not won a game at the Finals in three subsequent appearances.

Add in the poor showing at the last Asian Cup in 2015 and I think it is a long shot for Saudi Arabia to earn anything more than a point in this Group and they are the most likely team to finish bottom.

This is a section in which the favourite Uruguay should be able to progress and one in which I would expect them to top the Group and avoid Spain in the Second Round. The opening match with Egypt comes at the right time with Mohamed Salah unlikely to be at full speed and Uruguay can back that up with a win over Saudi Arabia which should mean being in control of the Group when the final game with Russia comes around.

The price for Uruguay to win the Group has been shortening all the time but they remain the selection going into the World Cup.

Picking a nation to follow them is much more difficult when you consider the hosts record but also feel Egypt are the better team. If Salah can return to fitness the second game in the Group is the pivotal one and it really is tough to call.

Egypt look the better team, but the hosts don't tend to be beaten before the Second Round and so Russia can't be discounted especially if they get off to a positive start by beating Saudi Arabia.

Ultimately the only selection here has to be Uruguay to win Group A.

Group B

I am going to go out on a limb here and say around 80% of people asked would place the two big European nations in either one or two in this Group and move on.

While I tend to agree that Spain are going to be good enough to make it out of a Group that is better than it looks on paper, Portugal may just find out how tough the other two nations making up the four could be.

It may be a surprise to read that when noting Spain's last two major international tournaments have ended with a Group Stage exit (World Cup 2014) and a Second Round defeat (Euro 2016) and knowing they have not won either of those Groups.

There are still some questions for Spain to answer mainly how the Spanish and Catalan players are going to get along with long-held beliefs that Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique are on opposite sides of the domestic debate both in terms of politics and club allegiances.

The concern that the squad will be fractured by the recent Catalan Independence vote has to be a real issue for Spanish fans and there are still some issues in finding a Number 9 they can rely upon which makes them tough to read. The strong performances in the World Cup Qualifying Group suggests Spain will be too good for the other teams in the Group, but I think we will learn a lot about them immediately at the World Cup Finals.

On the other hand Portugal are the reigning European Champions, but winning just 1 of 7 games at Euro 2016 has to be a problem that can't be ignored. Three draws were good enough to get out of a Group in which Portugal finished third, but that was not the case in Brazil four years ago as they suffered a Group Stage exit with 4 points secured.

The performance in Brazil is not an exception either as two of the last four World Cup Finals have ended in the Group Stage for Portugal and that is arguably with better squads than the one that will head to Russia. Portugal weren't exactly taxed in their Qualifying Group but needed to beat Switzerland on the final match day to secure top spot and I do wonder if their 'negative' style of play will be good enough to grind their way through the draw as it was two years ago.

Much will come down to how good the two other nations are in the Group and whether they are capable of upsetting Portugal and I do think there is a reason to believe they can.

The most likely contender looks to be Morocco who many in Africa are suggesting is the best of the nations coming out of that continent. Anyone who has watched the African Cup of Nations in recent years would recognise manager Herve Renard and Morocco have shown improvement under the guidance of arguably the best manager who has regularly coached in Africa.

Helping Morocco overcome the challenge of the Ivory Coast in the final Qualifying Group shows the talent this team have under Renard and they have looked very good in friendly matches too. A hard working team with defensive toughness and speed on the counter attack will give an ageing Portugal something to think about in the second round of games in the Group, but the key for Morocco is going to be beating Iran who may be the strongest of the Asian representatives.

Manchester United fans everywhere should recognise Carlos Queiroz who remains in charge of Iran having guided them to the last World Cup Finals where they gave Nigeria and Argentina plenty to think about. Not much has changed in terms of the defensive organisation which will make Iran a difficult team to contend with, but off field issues have plagued the preparation ahead of the tournament and could mean Iran are undercooked.

That is good news for Morocco who face Iran first up on Friday and these two nations are both expected to offer some resistance to the two European teams. The winner of the opening fixture is likely to be the team with most chance of making it through to the Second Round at the expense of either Spain or Portugal and I do think there is a distinct possibility the latter are the ones most in danger of an early exit.

I was tempted to back Morocco to make it through to the Second Round, but at a very similar price you can lay Portugal to do the same and I think that is an appealing option. Draws should not be good enough for Portugal to get through a Group where only two teams progress to the Last 16, unlike at Euro 2016, and a defeat to Spain on the opening Friday could put them in a very tough position already if there is a winner in the other game in the Group.

Both Morocco and Iran work hard enough to avoid defeat against Portugal if they can contain Cristiano Ronaldo and I will look to oppose the European Champions in the Group Stage.

4 of the last 6 European Champions have failed to make it into the World Cup Second Round with two of those nations failing to even Qualify for the Finals. Four years ago it was Spain who suffered and in 2002 it was France so Portugal are not immune to the big upset here in Russia with an overly cautious manager not helping the situation.

EDIT: Since writing this out originally the Spanish bid to win the World Cup looks to be in disarray. They are either going to rally together or blow apart much like the 2014 World Cup, but that uncertainty makes it hard to oppose Portugal getting out of the Group. The first game is going to be huge in determining the outcome of this Group in my opinion and either of the two European teams could be victim to the early upset.

Group C

Four years ago France were beaten in the World Cup Quarter Final and it was a situation where the fans believed a young and improving team would represent the nation very well in the years ahead. Losing the Euro 2016 Final on home soil two years ago was a real body blow, but the French Football Association remained behind Didier Deschamps who has been criticised by the fans for tactics that puts the handbrake on the forward thinking talent.

It is a big World Cup for Deschamps and France who go into it as one of the favourites to win the title on July 15th. They look the team to beat in Group C but there is work to be done by France when you think of the the teams they have to face in the section even if I do believe they are right to be favoured to progress as Group Winners.

France comfortably progressed out of their World Cup Qualifying Group, but they had some really negative results in the section against the likes of Belarus and Luxembourg.

In this Group they won't get away with those performances but I can't shift the feeling that Deschamps is the primary problem- if it was up to me I would have given Arsene Wenger a call after he left Arsenal and see if he wanted to take the reins for the World Cup and beyond with his style likely to get the best out of the attacking talent here.

It would still be a big surprise if France are not able to win this Group though and I think they will do that especially with the opportunity to get off to a very good start when they play Australia in the first game.

This is not a vintage Australian team and their struggles in the Asian Qualifiers highlighted that as they were forced to win a World Cup Play Off against Honduras to earn their place in Russia. This is the fourth consecutive World Cup in which Australia have played but the results have got worse and worse and back to back Group Stage exits look likely to be extended to a third Group Stage exit.

Bert van Marwijk has come in as the manager to try and make Australia a little more difficult to play against, but I think the problems will come at the other end of the pitch. In a Group containing some solid attacking teams Australia will do well to avoid finishing bottom of the pile.

Picking a team to finish in the top two along with France looks much more difficult with both Peru and Denmark showing they have the capabilities to earn a surprising run in the World Cup.

Peru are back for the first time since 1982, but they have been in fine form over the last fourteen months and the decision to take away Paolo Guerrero's ban is a huge boost for the team. In recent friendlies they have shown the momentum they have earned by working their way through a World Cup Play Off to reach the Finals and Peru look a team who have plenty of goals in the side which could make them a threat to any team they face.

There is little doubt the opening game against Denmark is going to be very important for Peru especially as the Danes are another team who have begun to peak at the right time after a slow start to their own World Cup Qualifying campaign. Like Peru Denmark have won a World Cup Play Off to reach the Finals and they will feel very confident they have the defensive resiliency and the special player in Christian Eriksen to progress.

The wait for a World Cup place has not been as long for Denmark as it has for Peru, but both squads are a little inexperienced when it comes to major international football and whoever handles the occasion best could be the team that goes through.

Personally I think it is tough to call although I was tempted by the big price for Peru to make it through to the Second Round. However I don't like the fact that Peru have to face France second in the Group which puts pressure on them if they have drawn with Denmark and lost to the Group favourites, especially if Denmark beat Australia in their own second game.

The Danes will be hoping France progress relatively easily to give them a chance to face a demotivated team in the final Group game and that could be the difference between them and Peru at the end of the Group Stage.

With France most likely to win the Group at a short price, it may pay to have an interest in Australia finishing bottom of the section as they do look the weakest team by some distance. Four years ago Australia didn't earn a point in their World Cup Group and this current crop looks like one that will look to avoid some heavy losses rather than having any real hopes of playing more than the three games here.

Group D

Ever since I can remember there has been a desperation for the members of the media to describe a Group as one 'of Death' but at the World Cup Finals in 2018 it feels like Group D has almost fallen into that category.

In recent years we have seen Groups containing teams like Chile, Spain and Holland, or Brazil, Portugal and Ivory Coast, which have deserved the 'Group of Death' tag, but in 2018 that has been missing and this just looks like one of the more competitive Groups out there.

In saying that there are two clear favourites to progress like there is in almost every Group out there and it will be up to the other two nations to try and upset the applecart.

The leading team in the section are the two time World Cup winners Argentina who were also Runners Up in 1990 and 2014. A poor Qualifying campaign has quickly been forgotten when you see Argentina down as the fourth or fifth favourites to win the World Cup and the respect comes from a very strong array of attacking players that can carry any nation.

Lionel Messi is the leading name for Argentina as he tries to join Diego Maradona on a pedestal in his home nation. However there has long been a fraught relationship between Messi and the fans, one that resulted in a retirement in the wake of another Copa America Final defeat to Chile two years ago that was quickly overturned a few weeks later.

This is the last chance for Messi at the World Cup when you consider how old he will be next time around but Argentina need more than their talisman to fire if they are going to work their way into the latter stags of the tournament. While the attacking threat is there from other avenues, Argentina's manager Jorge Sampaoli demands have not really fit with the squad as a backline with little pace has been exposed.

With more time to work together that may be something Sampaoli can address, but Argentina look more vulnerable than many of the leading teams in the Group Stage simply because they have underperformed. A more confident Argentina won all three Group games in 2014, but all by one goal margins and it is not too hard to see it going wrong for them in this tournament.

The bigger question is whether the other three nations can expose the Argentina vulnerabilities.

The top option to displace Argentina from winning the Group has to be Croatia but there are some serious worries around what looks a quality team on paper. For starters there was the inconsistent World Cup Qualifying Group which saw Croatia finish behind Iceland who are also a part of this Group and meant having to win a Play Off tie to reach the Finals.

The other issue has to be the way Croatia have flattered to deceive in major international tournaments since finishing third at the 1998 World Cup. Since then Croatia have reached seven major international tournaments and been beaten in the Group Stage five times including on each of their last three World Cup appearances.

But the biggest factor may be the scandal surrounding Zdravko Mamic which has become so big that the likes of Dejan Lovren and Luka Modric are in danger of being dragged down by it too. While that is still unlikely to be the case, during their playing days at least, Lovren and Modric won't have helped a traditionally uneasy alliance the players in the squad have with one another and there is every chance that both of the leading nations could be beaten in the Group Stage which would be a huge surprise.

Iceland finished above Croatia in the World Cup Qualifying Group as I have mentioned, but it looks a big ask for them to come close to replicating the success had at Euro 2016 when they reached the Quarter Final. This is a golden time for Icelandic Football as their nation has reached the World Cup Finals for the first time, but they have looked a little suspect in friendlies played over the last six months.

The hard work being put in by Iceland will give them a chance against anyone on their day, but defensively they have looked vulnerable and it is a long road back if they are beaten in the first game with Argentina.

In saying that, Iceland will gain a lot of positivity if they can avoid a defeat to Argentina and Gylfi Sigurdsson's return is huge for a team that will look to set pieces to rattle opponents once they have frustrated them with strong defensive displays. They may be one of the smallest nations to ever play at the World Cup Finals, but Iceland have shown a big heart and I think you can rule them out at your peril.

The enigmatic Nigeria make up the four in this Group and there are strong hopes that this current squad can match the achievements of the 1994 team which came close to beating Italy in the Second Round before Roberto Baggio saved the Europeans. The retro shirt being used at this year's event brings back memories of the 1994 team, but Nigeria have been a real mixed bag over the last eighteen months which makes them tough to read.

You have to like the way Nigeria have come into the tournament with the bonuses all decided and the off field issues that have blighted recent World Cup campaigns nowhere to be found. That will help a team that has some pace in the forward areas, but I do worry about the goalkeeping situation as Nigeria use an inexperienced group and that was an issue in the recent friendly defeat to England with mistakes made that led to goals conceded.

However Nigeria have found a way to get out of their Group in three of their five World Cup appearances beginning in 1994 and that includes four years ago when joining Argentina out of their Group. The last game is against Argentina this year, but Nigeria's mindset may be much better going into it when considering their 4-2 friendly win over them in November which could help this current crop ignore the poor World Cup record when facing Argentina in the Finals.


I may have this completely wrong but I can't have Argentina down as fifth favourites to win the World Cup with all the problems they have in defensive areas. Qualification doesn't mean a lot once you get to the World Cup Finals, but it is hard to ignore the fact that Argentina only scored 19 goals in 18 Qualifiers while they have looked very short in defensive areas and have lost first choice keeper, Sergio Romero, to injury.

Jorge Sampaoli is under pressure to deliver, but Argentina look like a big name nation that could easily exit in the Group Stage if they continue to look vulnerable defensively and Lionel Messi does not produce the magic he did in the Groups four years ago.

Even Croatia look like they could come up short in this Group with their off field issues coupled with a poor major international tournament record since the 1998 World Cup. In three consecutive World Cup Finals they have exited in the Group Stage and I do think there is some mileage in backing both favourites to exit in the Group Stage with only one doing that being enough to produce a profit.

Neither Nigeria or Iceland look like world beaters, but both have their qualities which could help them through to the Last 16 if the two favourites fail to produce their best consistently as both did in Qualification.

It may help that Nigeria have beaten Argentina (friendly) and Iceland have beaten Croatia (World Cup Qualifier) in recent memory and I will look for Group D to provide some upsets. The opening games are key for both underdogs to not have to play catch up early in the tournament, but I don't think Argentina or Croatia deserve to be clear favourites for the Last 16 with the issues around the teams and so backing each to fail to Qualify in singles will hopefully help us lock in a profit.

Group E

There are a couple of teams I have a lot of time for at the World Cup and one of those is Brazil who are looking to make up for their absolutely disappointing end to the last World Cup Finals. I have little doubt I will never see a host getting battered 1-7 in a World Cup Semi Final in my lifetime again, but this current Brazil squad look to have put that behind them with some fresh members who are looking like they are in a good position to have a big impact at this tournament.

The biggest is Neymar who was out of the World Cup Semi Final four years ago with a back injury suffered in the Quarter Final. That means Neymar is untainted as far as the Brazilian public will be concerned and manager Tite has put together a strong squad to take to Russia where Brazil will look to win a second World Cup on European soil.

Brazil Qualified with some strong results ever since Tite took over from the combustible Dunga and they have looked stronger and stronger in recent friendlies. The return of Neymar from an injury puts Brazil in a good place and I do think they can potentially go all the way this summer.

I certainly don't anticipate too many problems in this Group especially if Brazil can get off to a good start when they face Switzerland who have been a regular nation reaching the major international tournaments of late.

Switzerland are yet to have the impact they would have desired and this current crop look like one that can have success but will eventually run into a team that has too much quality for them. Failing to win the Group would likely mean Germany in the Second Round for whoever finishes second in the section and that would be a big test for Switzerland.

Even getting out of the Group will be anything but easy for the Swiss if they do lose the opener to Brazil which would mean chasing in the section. Switzerland have managed to get out of the Group in three of their last four World Cup appearances including four years ago in Brazil and so they do look the most likely challenger to the favourites in the Group.

Costa Rica may have something to say about that after surprisingly reaching the Quarter Final four years ago and coming out of a Group which contained Uruguay, England and Italy at the tournament. This Group is much more manageable for Costa Rica but the squad of players are four years older and there has not been the kind of transition to younger players that you would have liked to have seen.

The performances four years ago means you have to respect what Costa Rica can bring to the party, but they don't look like they are nearly as good. Failing to beat Serbia in the first game would put Costa Rica in a very difficult position when it comes to Qualifying for the Last 16 and i think teams in this Group will take them seriously after the exploits of four years ago which makes it that much more difficult for Costa Rica.

I have to say Serbia are an interesting team with some really good players coming through the system that makes them an intriguing prospect in Russia. The tough Qualifying Group was dominated by Serbia to make it into the World Cup Finals, but this nation has struggled in recent years and have yet to come close to making an impact on this kind of stage.

Four years ago we saw Bosnia struggle with that inexperience despite a comparable squad with Serbia and that is where I think Switzerland will edge them out of this Group. One benefit for Serbia is playing Brazil last and potentially getting something from that game if Brazil have already made it through, but I think the top two teams in this section will be very difficult to shift.

Analysing the way the Group games have been drawn out is important when trying to determine who will get through a section and that is the case with Group E.

Switzerland playing Brazil first and Serbia playing them third could be key in a Group where I believe Brazil go through and the two European teams have a straight fight for the second spot in the Group.

My experience edge goes with Switzerland especially with some of the off field issues surrounding Serbia and they have made it through the Group more often than not in recent Finals they have competed in.

There is the issue of Switzerland likely losing the opening Group game and trying to recover which raises some doubts, but neither Serbia or Costa Rica look capable of having the consistency to ease out the Swiss.

Looking for a straight forecast of Brazil winning the Group and Switzerland coming second is the selection and it is a bigger price than I thought it would be. However it is the issue of playing catch up in a tough Group which means I will stick with Brazil winning the Group and placing them with another couple of Group Winners.


Brazil are also going to be my outright selection to win the World Cup- I am less concerned about their one World Cup victory in Europe being from 1958 as Germany showed historical trends are not to be taken at full face value.

The potential Semi Final against France is a tough match, but Brazil should win this Group which means facing likely Mexico in the Last 16 and then either Belgium/England/Colombia/Poland in the Quarter Final which is manageable. Not many teams have been in better form than Brazil and Neymar is ready to go which means I fancy them to turn the page on the 2014 edition of the World Cup by winning in 2018.

Group F

They are always there or thereabouts so I don't think anyone in Germany will be worrying about some poor international friendly results. The defending World Cup winners will be looking to become the first team since 1962 to retain the World Cup and there won't be many looking to oppose them.

Any team that is talented enough to leave Leroy Sane out of a 23 man squad has to be offered a lot of respect and Germany have already tasted success in Russia by winning the Confederations Cup here in 2017. That was with a much changed squad and this current Germany team looks like one that will be very difficult to beat in the tournament.

I certainly don't foresee a lot of problems in Group F where Germany are the stand out nation and I won't be too down on poor friendly results this nation has considering how they seem to peak at major international tournaments. Germany have reached the Semi Finals in seven of their last eight tournaments played including in each of the last four World Cup Finals being played and they have to be respected on that alone.

This Group should be one in which Germany make short work when they take on the two teams expected to fight it out for second place in the first two games of the tournament.

Both Mexico and Sweden will recognise the importance of the game with one another, but they will also look to making sure they beat South Korea who look the weakest of the teams in this section.

South Korea had an inconsistent Qualifying campaign and are still working out what makes up their best eleven. If you don't know that by this time then it looks a tough road to tread and I do think South Korea will consider it an achievement if they avoid finishing bottom of this Group.

The expectations will change if South Korea beat Sweden in the opening game of this Group, but they look short of quality around the pitch and I would be surprised if they avoided a bottom place finish.

Sweden are also needing to find some confidence from somewhere having upset the Netherlands and Italy to make it back into the World Cup Finals. This was supposed to be a campaign of transition for Sweden who have overachieved by reaching here and who will rely on hard work and a strong defensive shape to give them a chance to nick games.

Recent friendly games have highlighted the main issue for Sweden which is scoring goals and I think that will eventually lead to their downfall in this Group with attacking teams like Mexico and Germany likely to give them food for thought. Even South Korea could have success getting after Sweden and I do think they will find it difficult to discover the consistency needed to get out of the Group Stage.

At Euro 2016 Sweden finished bottom of their Group containing Italy, Belgium and Republic of Ireland although I think their limit here is finishing a place above that.

Backing Mexico to reach the Last 16 is almost a must in the World Cup Finals having done that on six occasions in a row. There is some unrest surrounding the management style of Juan Carlos Osorio and anything less than a Second Round appearance would likely be curtains for him, but Mexico should be able to bounce back from an early setback which will probably happen when they face Germany in the opening game.

A lack of consistency has hurt Mexico and some of the heavy losses taken under Osorio cant be ignored, although those have come against better teams than Sweden and South Korea. They did get out of their Group at the Confederations Cup twelve months ago too and Mexico do face their closest challengers Sweden in the second game which gives them a chance to get their tournament back on track if they have fallen to defeat to Germany in the first game.

Germany to win the Group looks absolutely nailed on to me in this Group but picking a nation who will finish second is more intriguing.

My lean is towards Mexico who have performed well enough in the World Cup to get out of the Group before finding an opponent too good.

Mexico certainly look like they can get the better of both Sweden and South Korea who have some major issues to overcome and I think the Central American nation can continue a proud record of reaching the Last 16 by making it for a seventh time in a row.

The previous six have all ended in Last 16 losses though so backing Mexico's stage of elimination to be the Last 16 is the way to go at a bigger price than backing them to finish behind Germany. With Brazil likely waiting, it feels a very appealing price to look to Mexico to be beaten in the Second Round.


There is a potential top scorer in this portion of the draw and that is Timo Werner who leads the line for Germany. In recent World Cups Germany have tended to be amongst the higher scoring nations and they have also been a consistent in the Semi Final Rounds which is the minimum I expect of the defending Champions this time around.

Werner is capable of getting off to a good start in the Group Stage and the draw looks like one Germany can really take advantage of through to the Semi Final. My only concern for Werner is he is potentially rested in the final Group game against South Korea which could harm his chances of the golden boot, but I think he could go close if given the game time I expect in Russia.

Group G

One of the more straight forward looking Groups at the World Cup Finals looks to be Group G where two big European nations have been placed alongside one of the weakest teams in the whole competition and another who have been struggling with injury to key players ahead of the tournament.

In all honesty the biggest question about this Group is whether Belgium will finish first or if England can upset the top Seed and earn what is potentially a 'weaker' Second Round match. That fixture is the last one on the slate for this Group and I would be surprised if either Belgium or England need a result in that one to progress with the full expectation they will both be on six points at that time.

There is always room for an upset or two at the World Cup, even in the Group Stage, but I am struggling to see any problems for these two nations.

Roberto Martinez may not be my cup of tea when it comes to a top manager and he certainly was not an eye-catching choice as manager for Belgium after the surprising Euro 2016 exit in the Quarter Finals to Wales. He has been tasked with helping this 'golden generation' of players surpass the last two tournaments where Belgium have been beaten in the Quarter Final both times but there are questions about Martinez from a tactical point of view which may arise later in this tournament once the matches become much, much more difficult.

Unlike the last couple of tournaments, I think Martinez is going to get some good momentum behind Belgium this time around with a couple of strong wins to open things up. Belgium needed to come from behind to win their opening World Cup game in 2014 and won all three Group games by narrow margins, while they were beaten by Italy in the opening Euro 2016 fixture too.

A team with a reputation of being a flat track bully doesn't have the same kind of opponent in this Group as they have faced in the last couple of major tournament Finals and Martinez is someone who will set his team up to be very attacking. That could see Belgium win their opening couple of games by a couple of big margins and I do think that will give them the edge over England when it comes to topping the Group.

Belgium banged home 43 goals in 10 Qualifiers on their way to Russia and I think they can make pretty light work of the first two games to comfortably progress.

England are not likely to perform as freely as Belgium when it comes to their attacking play, but there have been some improvements under Gareth Southgate which will give the players belief even if the fans remain unconvinced. Friendly results are not a great indicator of future successes, but England still have to be respected for the performances in games against Spain, Italy, Brazil and Germany which suggests they could be a tougher out than the team who exited Euro 2016 with a whimper to the might of Iceland.

Unlike Belgium England will look to be assured defensively and try and spring on teams on the counter attack, but that may mean they are making harder work of the two minnows in this section. If it comes down to goal difference you would imagine Belgium have a big edge over England, but this is not going to be of great concern to Southgate as he looks to see an improvement from his team.

Coming out of arguably the weakest of the World Cup Qualifying Groups means you have to temper some enthusiasm for England going unbeaten, while recent years have seen them make light work of Qualifiers only to fall flat on their faces when it comes to the Finals of tournaments.

It would perhaps be the greatest of England's recent underachievements if they are unable to come out of this section and at least make the Second Round.

The other two teams in the Group are more of an afterthought and I think this is one Group where it makes sense for that to be the case.

Tunisia are back in the World Cup for the first time in twelve years having been fortunate with the draw for the final World Cup Qualifying Group. They have failed to win a single game in the Groups since their first appearance in 1978 which means suffering a Group Stage exit in 1998, 2002 and 2006.

Injuries to a couple of their leading lights has really dimmed the flame of enthusiasm the fans would have had for their chances of upsetting one of the big name European nations in the Group, while off field issues have perhaps splintered the squad.

The manager Nabil Maaloul has been criticised for trying to bring in second generation Tunisians who have been born outside of the nation and there are still concerns that Tunisia are defensively sound but lacking a real goal threat.

It makes it very hard to see them coming out of the Group, but Tunisia have shown in recent friendly games that they won't be a walkover and England should certainly be aware of what they are facing in the opening World Cup game of the tournament.

At least Tunisia will feel they have a chance of winning their first World Cup game since 1978 when they face Panama last in the Group. Merely being at the World Cup is a joyous situation for Panama where football is some way behind baseball as the number one sport in the country and it would take a shock of seismic proportions for their journey in Russia to go beyond the three games scheduled.

The feeling for Panama fans is their squad had a much better chance of having an impact in the Finals four years ago when they barely missed out on making it to Brazil. Now those same players are four years older and there has not been the transition in the squad that you would have expected with younger talent not ready to break through for them.

It all adds up to a nation who are going to enjoy every moment of the World Cup, regardless of the results, but one who will come up short throughout the tournament.

A lack of goals is a real concern for Panama and the 6-0 loss to Switzerland in a recent friendly might just have a few fans fearing the opener against a very attack minded Belgium. The limits to the Panama aims look to be trying to secure a point and score a goal in Russia, but even those may be asking a little too much of this squad.

Let's face facts- England and Belgium should cruise through to the Second Round and the real question is which of these teams will top the Group.

Belgium have the edge for me because I think they can outscore England which means a draw will be good enough when they face one another at the end of June to top the section. I may think about it a lot more if there was a 'clearer' path through the draw that would make finishing first and second a big difference, but I don't think that is the case and both Roberto Martinez and Gareth Southgate would likely accept a draw and make sure players are ready to compete in the Last 16 and going forward.

Facing Colombia, Poland or Senegal in the Second Round is neither here nor there and I can only see England or Belgium pushing for a result in the final Group game if it means facing Japan in the Last 16.

If the draw goes as expected the team finishing first will be Seeded to face Brazil in the Quarter Final and the team finishing second will face Germany so again I think the managers won't be asking their players to tire themselves out searching for a result.

As much as I like the squad Belgium have I don't think Roberto Martinez will be able to get it tactically right when it matters in this tournament and it feels like a third Quarter Final loss in a row is on the cards for this team. I very much would expect Belgium to beat either Poland or Senegal in a Second Round match and backing them at 3-1 to exit in the Quarter Final looks a huge price regardless of whether they finish first or second.

England's prospects are much more difficult to read and it is hard to ignore the fact they have won just 1 of their last 8 tournament matches going back to Euro 2012. Four years ago they didn't win a game in the Group Stage containing Italy, Uruguay and Costa Rica while England won 1 of 4 games at Euro 2016 with an injury time winner against Wales in the Group.

I expect them to get out of this Group and I don't think they would have it easy against any of the nations they would potentially face in the Second Round. The poor tournament record would have concerned me more if there hadn't been the turnover that has occurred in the last four years and I think this England team could surprise by winning a first Knock Out tie in any tournament since 2006.

That was the last time England reached the Quarter Final of the World Cup Finals and I think having an interest on England also being eliminated at that stage looks to be worth backing.

You can also find a price of odds against on Tunisia finishing third in this Group which looks an outstanding price- they are less likely to ship a lot of goals than Panama are which means a draw in the final Group game would be enough for them to finish above the Central American nation.

This Group also provides me an interest in one of the top goalscorer markets and I promise I am not just saying this as a Manchester United fan.

Romelu Lukaku is 18-1 to top score at the World Cup and I absolutely can see him make hay in the Group Stage which could give him a great chance of doing that. It takes around 5/6 goals to get into consideration for top scorer and Lukaku is more than capable of getting a number of those goals in the World Cup Group Stage with a reputation of a 'flat track bully' perhaps coming to the fore here.

He scored 11 times in 8 Qualifiers and even the potential Quarter Final exit doesn't put me off too much knowing James Rodriguez top scored with Colombia four years ago and also went out in the Quarter Final. Lukaku doesn't take the penalties which is a blow, but I can easily see him coming out of the Group Stage with four goals and then it is a case of a bit of luck helping him along the way.

An each-way interest on Lukaku has to be taken at the prices and I will look for Belgium to help him get on his way with a couple of big wins to open the Group.

Group H

This Group may not have the huge name nation that you would usually associate with a 'Group of Death' but I think you can throw a blanket over the top three teams and randomly pick out the two teams who will make it through to the Second Round.

Poland, Colombia and Senegal will all believe they are good enough to make it through to the Second Round and I have to say Japan look way short of the quality needed to challenge in this section.

There is plenty to like about Colombia, but I have to be wary of their poor World Cup Qualification campaign as well as the lack of real form being put together in friendly games. Four years ago Colombia surprised by reaching the Quarter Finals in Brazil, but this time the expectation will be much greater on them and it will be interesting to see how they deal with that.

James Rodriguez and Radamel Falcao are very capable at the highest level and they will be key for Colombia while I think the benefit of opening up against Japan gives them a chance to get the jump on Poland and Senegal who will play one another later on the same day.

That match between Poland and Senegal could be a key one with the losing team playing catch up immediately. Two years ago Poland made the Quarter Final of the Euro 2016 tournament before going out on penalties to eventual Champions Portugal and this current squad may be the best they have produced since Poland reached the Semi Final of the World Cup back in 1982.

Pressure can do funny things to teams though and Poland have to be worried about the number of goals they conceded in their World Cup Qualifying campaign. That has continued in their recent international friendly games and I do wonder if Poland will strike the right balance in a Group where the likes of Senegal and Colombia have the attacking talent to cause them plenty of problems.

Senegal have Sadio Mane and much will depend on how the Liverpool striker can take to the World Cup stage in determining whether his nation can make the surprising effort they produced in 2002. They didn't have a difficult final World Cup Qualifying Group and there is a fear that Senegal wait too long before the attacking talent is unleashed which has seen them struggle to score consistently.

The draw with Luxembourg in a recent friendly doesn't bode well for Senegal but I think they are better than they have shown and could easily split the top two in the market.

What seems most certain is that Japan are going to be the weakest team in the Group and I think they are destined to finish bottom of the Group. They don't come into the World Cup with nearly the same levels of excitement as previous years and this is a section in which they could be playing catch up immediately after facing Colombia in the opening Group game.

The friendly games haven't offered much encouragement and it feels like Japan are scrambling around trying to figure out the best way to get this team playing in a manner they would like.

Group H really looks a tough to call between the three leading nations in the Group, but I do like the odds against quotes for Japan to finish bottom of the section.

They look disorganised and will give the attacking qualities the other three nations possess every chance of scoring goals against them and Japan look short of the others.

Of course it will take just one upset for Japan to avoid that fate, but they could be under big pressure from the off if they are beaten by Colombia who happened to crush Japan 4-1 at the last World Cup Finals.

Senegal may surprise by breaking up the top two teams in the market, but they have to show significant improvement from recent months and backing Japan to finish below the other three teams is the selection.

MY PICKS: Uruguay to Win Group A @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
France/Germany/Brazil to Win Group C/E/F Accumulator @ 2.35 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Argentina Not to Qualify from Group D @ 6.50 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
Croatia Not to Qualify from Group D @ 2.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Mexico Stage of Elimination- Last 16 @ 3.25 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Belgium Stage of Elimination- Quarter Final @ 4.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
England State of Elimination- Quarter Final @ 3.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Tunisia to Finish Third Group G @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Japan to Finish Bottom Group H @ 2.50 Bet365 (2 Units)
Timo Werner Top Scorer @ 15.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
Romelu Lukaku Top Scorer @ 19.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
Brazil to Win the World Cup @ 5.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)