French Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2018 (June 4th)

The last three days have been very tough and I have to say I am a little irritated with myself and some of the poor selections made.

There hasn't been much luck behind me since a really strong Thursday, but I am very much to blame for that with some decisions coming back to haunt me. I know where I have been going wrong so I am hoping the final week of this second Grand Slam of the season can be salvaged and I can build some momentum to take into the grass court season.

One positive is that the only one of my outright picks that played on Sunday moved through to the Quarter Final although I am not sure how much Alexander Zverev can have left in the tank after a third consecutive five set match. The last one against Karen Khachanov was at least a big hitting match which meant avoiding the drawn out rallies that can really sap energy, but suffice to say three five set matches in a row is not ideal before the Quarter Final stage.

Next up for Zverev is the impressive Dominic Thiem and it may be considered a match to determine who is currently the second best clay court player in the world behind Rafael Nadal. The weather forecast could be huge for Zverev with three poor days expected in Paris which could mean there is more rest time which could be the key factor in the match.

That's a tough match for both players but I will get to it in the Day 10 selections.

First up it is about doing the right things and getting Day 9 and the week at the French Open back on track after three poor days in a row. The weather forecast is going to change the conditions in Paris in the days ahead, but the lack of a roof could be a real problem for the organisers if the forecast is anything close to what has been suggested at this time, but I will make the picks and see how much tennis is actually completed.


Kevin Anderson v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: This is considered the closest of the four remaining Fourth Round matches on the men's side of the draw and you can understand why that may be the case. While Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is at his best on the clay courts, Kevin Anderson is no slouch on the surface and his overall game has improved to such an extent that he has moved into the top 10 of the World Rankings.

One area where Anderson does have a considerable advantage is with the serve which has proven to be a key reason he has managed to work his way past Pablo Cuevas and Mischa Zverev in the last two Rounds.

His hold percentage is almost 10% higher than Schwartzman's which could be a huge advantage if the latter is not being able to get into the drawn out rallies in which he should be the big favourite against the South African.

Anderson has not been able to return serve nearly as well as Schwartzman, but he could have the chance to play some first strike tennis if he begins to see a few second serves. It would give Anderson the chance to put Schwartzman under immediate pressure, although I was very impressed with the way Schwartzman was able to handle Borna Coric in the Third Round.

I also have to note that Schwartzman has gone just 1-4 in clay court matches against the taller players on the Tour which includes a loss to Kevin Anderson two years ago. Marin Cilic, Benoit Paire and Lukas Rosol are others to have beaten Schwartzman in that time, although it should be pointed out Anderson is not the best returner with just an 11% break record on the clay in 2018.

He has not been much better in this tournament, but Anderson believes in his game and he will continue serving down the big shots and looking to keep the scoreboard pressure on opponents. Schwartzman is also the weakest server Anderson has faced since his crushing win over Paolo Lorenzi in the First Round and I think he may edge out the favourite.

Schwartzman was very good against Coric in the last Round, but he had been in mixed form ahead of the tournament in Paris and I think Anderson wins this one.


Rafael Nadal - 10.5 games v Maximilian Marterer: He may have one of the great names in Tennis, but it is going to take more for Maximilian Marterer to find the game to challenge Rafael Nadal on the clay courts of Paris. It has been a strong year for the young German who turns 23 later this month and that has seen his World Ranking improve week after week, but Marterer won't need me to tell him the size of the challenge in front of him.

Reaching the second week of a Grand Slam will help the mindset and underline the progress that Marterer has made and his win over Denis Shapovalov in the Second Round will have given him plenty of confidence. However Shapovalov is still getting completely accustomed to the clay courts and wins over Ryan Harrison and Jurgen Zopp as a favourite is not the preparation that gets anyone ready to face Rafael Nadal.

Like with many young players making their impact on the main Tour, Marterer has had some inconsistent results coming into Paris. However wins over the likes of Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Gael Monfils shows there is a player there and one that will be looking to improve and move further up the World Rankings.

That is where I give Marterer credit, but his combined hold/break percentage is under 90% on the clay courts this season and that is nowhere near good enough to beat Nadal. Confidence is good for a young player, but Marterer holds at 73% and now faces an opponent who is breaking players at almost 50% of the time which is a tough test for any player on the Tour.

Rafael Nadal continued his strong play since the battle against Simone Bolelli by dismissing Richard Gasquet in routine fashion. He may feel he can return better than he has so far in the tournament, but it is hard to find any area where you are looking for improvement from the Spaniard who is favourite for another French Open title.

A slow start would make it tough for Nadal to cover such a number, but he has routinely put opponents under pressure from the off and I am expecting serene progress through to another Quarter Final here. With the suggested weather forecast I think Nadal is fully focused and looking to go through in double quick time and I think he perhaps sees the youngster he is facing overawed by an occasion he simply has not experienced.


John Isner-Juan Martin Del Potro over 42.5 games: After watching John Isner in his win over Pierre-Hugues Herbert I was wondering what it will take to break the big American serve. While Herbert is not a great returner by any stretch of the imagination, when Isner gets into a rhythm he hits his spots and even getting a racquet onto those serves is a challenge.

Once upon a time it wasn't a challenge that worried Juan Martin Del Potro who won the first four matches between these tall players. However since then it is Isner who leads 4-2 which includes a strong win over him in Miami a couple of months ago and here in Paris in an indoor tournament at the back end of last season.

This is the first time the two will play one another on the clay courts and this is actually a surface that I think Isner and Del Potro are of a similar stature. Overall you would say Del Potro is the better player, but both enjoy having the time the slower courts give on the return of serve and off the ground, while Isner perhaps has the edge as far as the serve goes.

Isner holds an 8-4 record on the clay this season but he came into Paris with an eye-watering 96% hold percentage and the big American has yet to be broken in three matches played here. Actually add to that, Isner has only faced three break points in the entirety of the tournament but the challenge remains for Isner to find the breaks of serve and he has broken serve just four times in the event.

His numbers prior to the tournament were pretty poor on the returning side of things on the clay courts, but the scoreboard pressure makes it very difficult against him.

Del Potro had some injury concerns heading to Paris, but he had been playing well on the clay with a combined 109% hold/break percentage solid returns. The small sample plays a part, but Del Potro was also at 105% in ten matches played in 2017 on the clay and it took a strong Andy Murray effort to see him beaten at the French Open.

Following an opening set 1-6 loss to Nicolas Mahut, Del Potro has grown into the tournament here and this match looks like one that will have at least a couple of tie-breakers to separate the players. A straight sets win would be an issue for my selection, but I would be surprised if that is the case with the way both players are serving and with Del Potro perhaps being able to do a little more on the return but also struggling to find the answers in the last couple of matches to the Isner serve.

I don't really anticipate a lot of breaks of serve to be perfectly honest and as long as this goes four sets I will expect the total games to be covered.


Marin Cilic - 1.5 sets v Fabio Fognini: Somehow and someway Fabio Fognini found the answers in tough moments to break down Kyle Edmund and beat the British Number 1 in five sets in the Third Round. That helped the Italian reach the Fourth Round at the French Open for the first time in five years and Fognini will be hoping the day of rest on Sunday gives him a chance to produce his best tennis on Monday.

He is going to need his best tennis against Marin Cilic who is quietly going about his business in the French Open draw. The Croatian has only lost one set so far in progressing to the Fourth Round and dismantled Steve Johnson in the Third Round to make much more comfortable progress than his opponent in this one.

There were some concerns that Cilic was not at full health heading into the French Open, but the performances have underlined the success he has enjoyed on the clay courts over the last two months. The combined hold/break percentage is not quite as good as it was in 2017, but Cilic is at 114% and he has been both serving and returning very effectively which is going to put some real pressure on Fognini.

However Fognini has played well on the clay throughout his career and he had some solid numbers of his own coming into the French Open. It has to be said he has picked up his play in the Grand Slam too and Fognini will feel he can return well enough to at least pose Cilic problems that his other three opponents have yet to really ask the Croatian to solve.

Ultimately Fognini is slightly weaker on the serve and his returning is about at the same numbers as what Cilic is producing. It is the Cilic serve which should prove to be the big difference maker in the match and as long as the big man gets plenty of first serves in play he should have control of rallies in this match.

I have Cilic to come out of this Quarter of the draw and I think he reaches the Quarter Final match with a win in three or four sets as he continues to fly ominously under the radar.


Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: It has been a mixed level of performances from Elise Mertens so far in the French Open, but she produced her best in the Third Round after scraping through a couple of Rounds. That isn't going to be good enough if she doesn't raise her game again when facing the current World Number 1 who is arguably the best player on the clay courts too.

Simona Halep is yet to show she has the mental fortitude to break through the barrier and win a Grand Slam, although I do think the Romanian is showing more and more belief in each passing Slam. She is definitely getting closer and her numbers on the clay courts are very strong in recent years which is a real reason she is favoured to win in Paris.

The last couple of Rounds have seen Halep produce some very good tennis but she will also recognise that she doesn't need to peak too early and I think she steps up her game in the second week. Halep also dominated Mertens when they played in Madrid last month although the conditions were markedly different than the ones that will be at play in Paris.

In saying that, I think Halep prefers the conditions in Paris and that is not good news for Mertens whose serve has not been as strong as she would like. Playing against someone who is going to make sure she works hard for every point she wants to win makes that more difficult for Mertens who has a good clay court pedigree of her own.

In fact the Mertens numbers are slightly more impressive on paper than Halep's in 2018 until you realise she has only played one player in the top 20 in her run... And that is the World Number 1 in that heavy loss in Madrid.

With Halep playing at a consistently higher level than Mertens I think she will be able to get the better of her opponent here. The Halep serve is good enough to hold at least three or four times more than Mertens over the course of this match and I think the Belgian will have some trouble keeping Halep off of her.

Halep should reach another Quarter Final here and I like her chances of winning this match comfortably enough in the Fourth Round on Monday.


Caroline Garcia v Angelique Kerber: It may be a match that is overshadowed by the big showdown between Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova, but both Angelique Kerber and Caroline Garcia match up well and are playing well which suggests they could offer the crowd something special on Monday.

Garcia being the last French hope in either draw is going to just up the ante and there will be a real feeling she can go all the way in Paris having shown continued growth on the clay courts. There has been one moment of concern in the Second Round win over Shuai Peng, but Garcia has played well so far this week and will give Kerber something to think about.

On the other hand Kerber has to be feeling good about her own game after deservedly beating Kiki Bertens in the Third Round. That is about as good a win as Kerber has had on the clay over the last fifteen months and has to give the German some real confidence of her own which should mean both players are able to produce some of their best tennis.

The Kerber run has been more surprising in the draw considering the lack of real success on the clay courts over the last couple of years. Kerber was just 4-4 on the clay courts prior to the start of the French Open although all four losses have come against some of the best players on the Tour.

I am not quite convinced Garcia falls into that category despite the top 10 Ranking and that is perhaps highlighted by her 15-28 win-loss record against top 20 opponents since 2016. The Frenchwoman is 3-7 in those spots in 2018 too so I do wonder whether the return, which could be improved, is the weakness that makes Garcia push too hard on protecting serve.

Garcia has shown better in those bigger matches on the clay courts in 2018 at 3-3 while Kerber is 1-5 against top 20 players on the clay since January 2017 and prior to the French Open this year. With that in mind you can see why the layers have this as a pick 'em contest but it is the Garcia superiority on the clay courts which I believe will make the difference despite the impressive win Kerber had over Bertens a couple of days ago.

It is Kerber who has also dominated the head to head between these players, but I think that can be turned around by Garcia who has the bigger serve. She should be able to have some success against the Kerber serve during the match and I think Garcia will work her way past Kerber in a tough match.


Serena Williams - 1.5 games v Maria Sharapova: This is the match that everyone is looking forward to on Monday at the French Open, although the weather may well be the ultimate winner on the day if the forecast is correct in the coming days.

Some have described this as a rivalry, but I would always preface that word 'rivalry' with 'off court' because Serena Williams has dominated Maria Sharapova on the court. It has now been fourteen years since Sharapova last beat Williams when earning back to back successes at Wimbledon and then at the WTA Finals, but the next eighteen have all been won by the American.

There is the new factor involved which is Serena Williams' recent return to the court and the lack of competitive tennis she has played since giving birth to her daughter. The three wins in the French Open will have helped, but you do have to wonder how much Serena Williams has in the tank although she has looked stronger and stronger in each passing match and been very impressive since the second set against Ashleigh Barty.

The serve has been very effective in the last four sets Serena Williams has played, and won, but now she has to go up against Sharapova who has her eye in on the return. That was underlined by one of the most impressive wins anyone has had in the French Open when Sharapova crushed Karolina Pliskova in two comfortable sets and Sharapova has to feel this is as good a chance as she ever will have to beat Serena Williams if the return is working to that level.

Sharapova is very comfortable on the clay courts which does make her a threat in this one and she has been returning very well so there is every chance she can put Serena under pressure. She will need Williams to be slightly below the level of her serve in the last four sets she has played though and I do think this is going to be a key to the match, especially as far as Serena Williams is concerned.

That is because she has yet to get a complete confidence in her timing on the return of serve although Williams will know she is going to be able to get a decent read off the Sharapova second serve. The Sharapova serve in general was at its best on Saturday against Pliskova, but that has been the exception to the numbers produced over the clay court season and Williams has the power and confidence to go on the attack and see how well Sharapova can defend her own serve.

Williams has also been very good on the clay and at her best she is still above Sharapova even on a surface the latter may now feel is her best. The head to head is going to be tough to ignore by Sharapova if she makes a slow start and Williams seems to raise her game when she faces the Russian with whom she enjoys a tense relationship at best.

Even her lack of court time has not prevented Serena Williams dominating Maria Sharapova and two matches stand out- Serena was 81 in the World when beating Sharapova in the Australian Open Final back in 2007 and she was 169 in the Ranking when beating her in Stanford in 2011.

The latter is the more fitting as it came early in the draw after Serena had only recently returned to the Tour and suffered two relatively early losses on grass events in Eastbourne and Wimbledon. Both times Sharapova was inside the top two of the Rankings and she won a grand total of seven games across the two matches. This is clearly a match up that motivates Williams and she is very tough to beat when she has that behind her, while Sharapova isn't as strong as she would have been in those matches so I like the American to win this one too.


Garbine Muguruza - 5.5 games v Lesia Tsurenko: None of the women's Fourth Round matches completed on Sunday were very competitive and Garbine Muguruza will feel she can become the latest to progress to the last eight without too much fuss. You have to respect Lesia Tsurenko for getting through three Rounds which suggests she is playing well, but Muguruza is very comfortable on the clay courts as a former Champion in Paris and she has been happy to fly under the radar at the French Open.

All three of Muguruza's wins have been very good looking ones and she looks to be rounding into form after poor results in preparation for the French Open. However Muguruza has previous in that regard after not looking at her best in preparation for Wimbledon last year but going on and winning the tournament by peaking at the right time.

The tournaments prior to the French Open didn't mean a lot fo Lesia Tsurenko either after two heavy losses in Madrid and Rome, but she has pulled her form around. Twice she has had to come from a set down in her three matches here, but that is a sign of someone who still has a lot of belief in her own game and where it can take her.

Tsurenko just hasn't had the same kind of clay court pedigree as someone like Muguruza which makes it tougher to really get a feel for how she has progressed as far as she has. The return of serve has been very effective for the Ukrainian in the tournament so far but it has been the fact that Tsurenko has been able to back it up with decent serving which has made the biggest difference to her results compared to recent years on the Tour.

Her serve is going to be tested by Muguruza who has won at least 48% of her return points so far in the tournament and who has broken serve 15 times already this tournament in just the three matches. The Spaniard has created 31 break points too and broken in over 50% of her return games which makes her a real threat to Tsurenko if Muguruza has her eye in again in the Fourth Round.

Muguruza has been serving well too and I think it is easier for her to relax into her matches when she is returning as effectively as she is. I think she will prove too much for Tsurenko especially on this surface and Muguruza is playing well enough to cover this handicap even if it is a big number for a Fourth Round match.

MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 10.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 42.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 41-41, - 2.84 Units (157 Units Staked, - 1.80% Yield)