French Open Tennis Day 15 Picks 2018- Men's Final (June 10th)

This is perhaps not the perfect Final that the majority of Tennis fans would have been hoping for in the men's draw, but it still features two of the top three clay court players in the world.

Rafael Nadal is the dominant Champion trying to defend his territory against the young buck Dominic Thiem who has gotten closer and closer to Nadal on this surface. Over the last couple of years Thiem is the only player who has beaten the Spaniard on this surface, but this is a big challenge for him at Roland Garros.


Rafael Nadal win 3-1 v Dominic Thiem: Rafael Nadal has been back to his dominant best on the clay courts in 2017 and 2018 having lost just two matches on the surface in that time. Compare that to the previous two years when Nadal suffered ten losses on the clay courts and you can see that the aura is very much back and he is going to be incredibly difficult to stop winning an eleventh French Open title.

No one will ever really doubt that Nadal is the very best clay courter of all time and he goes into the men's Final as a considerable favourite.

That isn't a surprise but Dominic Thiem may be the one player who can have a semblance of confidence to take into any match against Nadal. While the Spaniard has only lost two matches on the surface since the beginning of the 2017 season, both losses have come at the hands of Thiem and that has to make the Austrian believe he can earn the upset.

Beating Nadal in Madrid is a good result, but those conditions perhaps favour Thiem a little more than the World Number 1, but it is the win in Rome last year he has to really focus on. Of course that didn't mean anything when these players met in Roland Garros in the French Open Semi Final in 2017 which saw Nadal crush Thiem for the loss of just seven games.

That was the second time these players have met at the French Open and both times it is Thiem who has been on the wrong end of a heavy loss. The Austrian also has to cope with the pressure which comes with a first Grand Slam Final and so I can understand why the edge is clearly with Nadal who has been there and done it many times in the past.

Nadal's numbers on the clay courts have been incredibly strong with the return game producing some eye-catching numbers which puts opponents under considerable pressure. He is facing a Thiem serve which has been working very well, but it is hard to see Thiem sustain his levels over the best of five set format and the first two sets are going to be very important for the younger player who needs to give himself a boost of confidence in that time by winning at least one.

I do think Thiem can have some success on the return of serve, but he doesn't break serve anything like at the rate Nadal does and so it would be a big upset if Nadal is not picking up another title.

Thiem will come out aggressively though and has to try and take the game to Nadal and I think he will have a little more success than some may. As long as he handles the pressure of the occasion I think Thiem will make this a much tougher match for Nadal than their Semi Final was last season and I would not be surprised if Thiem is able to take a set with an aggressive style similar to what Diego Sebastian Schwartzman produced in the Quarter Final against Nadal.

Even Juan Martin Del Potro had some early chances in the first set to take command of it and I think those are situations in which Thiem will have a little more success. Six of the French Open Finals played by Nadal have gone four sets and none have reached five sets so my belief in Thiem being able to push the Spaniard more than last season makes the most obvious selection being Nadal winning this in four sets on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal Win 3-1 @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)

French Open Update: 47-53, - 15.94 Units (192 Units Staked, - 8.30% Yield)