NBA Finals 2018- Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers
For the fourth year in a row we will get to the see the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers compete for the NBA Championship, the first time any of the big four North American sports have had the same two teams competing for the Championship four years in a row.
The Cavaliers will go onto the Finals as the huge underdog this time around and Golden State will feel they can create a dynasty with a third title in four years.
And of course these may be the final games in which we see LeBron James wearing a Cleveland Cavaliers jersey.
Thursday 31st May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: For the fourth season in a row the NBA Finals will be played between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers and this time around it is the Warriors who are the strongest of favourites. This is the biggest spread that Golden State have been asked to cover in the NBA Finals against Cleveland as Game 1 is played on Thursday.
Both teams didn't have straight forward paths through to the NBA Finals with both the Cavaliers and Warriors winning Game 7's on the road in the Conference Finals. You can't dismiss how big that is while the Cleveland Cavaliers also needed seven games to get past the Indiana Pacers in the First Round and it is those issues which have made them a big underdog against the defending Champions.
LeBron James should be given so much credit for what he has been able to do for the Cavaliers in what many expect to be the final season he has with his home town team. If there was any doubt about the legitimate greatness of James, he has put all those to rest with the way he has carried the Cavaliers to what can be considered an overachieving season.
That may surprise, but I think the Cavaliers have not looked right all season but James has willed them to get to the NBA Finals and it will need a huge effort from The King to win this NBA Finals Series. It is only thanks to some clutch play from James that Cleveland have managed to edge their way through the Play Offs and the Cavaliers will go only as far as he can take them.
Getting some support from some of the role players is key for Cleveland if they really think they can win the Series, but Kevin Love is a doubt for Game 1. That means the pressure is on the likes of Jeff Green, Kyle Korver and George Hill to make a big impact for the Cavaliers as they try and steal away home court.
It is a big ask for Cleveland against the Golden State Warriors, although there have been some chinks in the armour of a team who have won two of the last three NBA Championships. Andre Iguodala could miss Game 1 and that is a blow for the Warriors considering how well they have played with him on the court and also the superb job he has done against LeBron James in the NBA Finals before.
There were also some Defensive mistakes against the Houston Rockets which allowed too many open looks from three point range and you have to think Cleveland can manufacture those opportunities. Of course the Cavaliers shooters are not as strong as the Houston ones and Golden State have the kind of Offensive power to sweep all before them.
I think the Warriors are going to dominate this Series, but Game 1 might be the best chance for the Cavaliers to try and steal home court and make sure a real Series develops. Ultimately it will come down to whether their open shooters can perform above the level they have for much of the season.
While I think LeBron James will have his usual big game, I don't trust the players around him and Cleveland aren't good enough Defensively to really believe in them being able to slow down the Golden State Warriors. The last two NBA Finals have seen Cleveland head into Golden State and they have lost the first four games by margins of 15, 33, 22 and 19 point margins to fall 2-0 down in each of those NBA Finals.
You have to think Cleveland are going to be highly motivated by being set as the biggest underdog in the NBA Finals in the last three years. In fact it is the biggest spread in the NBA Finals in twenty-five years and that has to be encouraging LeBron James to produce one of his career best efforts, but I think the talent differential will be tough to reign in.
Golden State have played nine home Play Off Games in 2018 and they have won eight with five coming by 15 or more points. They can continue their early domination of the Cleveland Cavaliers and I will back the Warriors to cover what is a huge number for any Championship Series.
Sunday 3rd June
That picture looks like it could be the iconic image coming out of the NBA Finals 2018 and I say that knowing full well we are only at Game 1. However if this Finals goes the way most expect it too, Cleveland blowing a huge chance in Game 1 because JR Smith did not count the score is going to be considered THE moment when it went away from them.
This is meme material too with so many popping up over the last couple of days and Cleveland now look to bounce back in Game 2 back at The Oracle Arena.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: No one really believed JR Smith when he claimed he knew exactly what he was doing at the end of regulation time in Game 1 and it is no surprise to hear Smith has changed his tune ahead of Game 2. After initially telling the media he knew Cleveland and Golden State were tied when he ran the ball out of the paint off an Offensive rebound, Smith has since admitted he thought Cleveland were leading the game and was trying to run out the clock.
LeBron James was exasperated on the court as he tried to take a Time Out and yelled at Smith to make a play and that decision is going to hurt even more when considering how Cleveland wilted in Overtime in Game 1. An ejection for Tristan Thompson with less than 3 seconds on the clock underlined the flustered nature of the Cavaliers and Game 2 is going to be another feisty game.
Game 1 was one that Cleveland should have won having gotten back into the game after taking some big haymakers from Golden State in the Third Quarter. The battling display will have offered encouragement to the fans, but the manner of the end of the game has to have hurt the players who have had a couple of days to think about things.
The problem for the Cavaliers is that they can't really play much better than they did in Game 1 and they still came up short. The Offensive rebounds were a huge boost for Cleveland in that game and it is an area that Golden State have highlighted and want to show more energy around the boards.
If that happens and the Warriors can get back on track with the rebounding it is going to be very difficult for the Cavaliers to find a way to head home with the NBA Finals tied at 1-1. They can hope LeBron James has another monster outing, but Cleveland need even more out of the likes of Kevin Love and JR Smith while also trying to show better Defensive effort to have any chance in this one.
For Golden State the positives are clearly being 1-0 up in the NBA Finals but they will know there is a clear improvement they are capable of making. The Warriors need to show a little better Defensive effort of their own, but they have shown they can do that this season compared with Cleveland who have been erratic Defensively for the majority of the 2017/18 season.
I do expect the Warriors to be a little better than Game 1 and they have the Offensive power and the Defensive strength to take this game away from Cleveland. I may be reading too much into the mental factor, but I am struggling to know how the Cavaliers can pick themselves up from such a ending as they suffered to Game 1 after what was almost a peak performance from them.
Again we have a big number for the home favourite, but I think Golden State remain the right play and will look for them to cover.
The Golden State Warriors dominated Game 2 of the NBA Finals which has put them in a commanding position in the Series with the Cleveland Cavaliers. With two games to come in Cleveland there is every chance the Warriors can close out the NBA Finals before the World Cup begins next Thursday.
Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The heartache of failing to win Game 1 was clear to anyone who watched the NBA Finals, but in the last couple of days the real devastation felt at the end of the regulation by LeBron James was made clear to the public. A video was released showing the Cleveland Cavaliers going back to their sideline at the end of regulation and James clearly disappointed with the way Game 1 had ended after JR Smith had messed up the score.
With that in mind it was perhaps not a big surprise to see the Golden State Warriors dominate Game 2 from start to finish which has helped them into a 2-0 lead in the Series. Not many of these Warriors will have forgotten 2016 when they blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals and that should keep them focused, but it is clear that the Golden State Warriors are very much the best team in this Series.
The expectation is that Cleveland will respond and LeBron James is going to be the key to their chances of success in Game 3. However James himself has admitted that there is only so much he can do on his own and he needs others to step up after some below par performances in Game 2 which saw the Golden State Warriors win by 19 points.
There will be some adjustments made by the Cavaliers as they try and get back on track by holding serve at home where they have won their last eight Play Off games since losing to Indiana in the First Round. One of those adjustments is giving more minutes to Rodney Hood who has not played well for the Cleveland Cavaliers since coming in from the Utah Jazz in a trade made before the trade deadline.
Hood has not featured much in the Play Offs and the biggest splash he has made is refusing to come off the bench in the latter stages of Cleveland's Game 4 win over the Toronto Raptors. Ty Lue is looking for some scoring outside of James and admitted he is going to give Hood 'a shot' despite him featuring for only four minutes in the first two games of the NBA Finals.
It feels like a desperation move from Cleveland whose poor Defensive numbers throughout the 2017/18 season have shown up in the NBA Finals. That won't have surprised too many people and they have to find a way to slow down the Warriors who have been so good from the three point line which opens up everything in the paint.
Andre Iguodala looks like he is going to miss out on Game 3 and the Warriors have not missed a step without one of the better Defensive players on their team. While his return would be a boost, Steve Kerr has said he won't risk Iguodala until he is fully ready to compete and Golden State have gotten enough from their team to feel comfortable in delaying that return.
The Cavaliers did win Game 3 in the 2015 and 2016 NBA Finals, but last season Golden State moved 3-0 ahead with a win here in a tough game. It feels like all of the momentum is with the Warriors who have won both games so far in the Finals by double digits and I think they can take the initial haymakers that will be sent at them by the Cavaliers and then begin to take control.
LeBron James can will the Cavaliers to success, but he has to begin thinking about his next career move with his team some way short of the Warriors. I expect LeBron to have a big game as he tries to get Cleveland back into the Finals, but again I am looking for Golden State to handle the initial pressure and then fight back and win Game 3 while covering the spread.
Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers came out with plenty of energy in Game 3 of the NBA Finals as they looked to hold serve at home and that energy saw them build a big lead early in the contest. However the Defensive frailties of the Cavaliers means it is very difficult for them to hold the Golden State Warriors at bay and the defending Champions came back big in the second half to move 3-0 up in the Finals.
Kevin Durant was huge for the Warriors and underlined why they set out to bring him to Golden State soon after losing the 2016 Finals to the Cavaliers. While Golden State have gone from strength to strength in the two seasons Durant has been with the team, Cleveland have lost key pieces of the team that won the 2016 Finals and really rely on LeBron James to prop them up.
There is only so much James can do without the same type of support the Warriors have around Durant. The King admitted the Warriors are more talented man for man, but the fact they have the mental fortitude to do the right things under pressure makes them almost impossible to beat.
Durant's performance in Game 3 was even more important when you note the struggles Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson had from the field. A dagger three pointer in the final 40 seconds from Durant underlined his impact on Game 3 and his nonchalant celebration while his team-mates went wild is one of the iconic images of the 2018 Finals.
In the last couple of days it has also been announced that Durant will opt out of his current contract with the Warriors at the end of the season, but a deal is almost in place that means he will re-sign with Golden State at a higher rate of compensation. On the other hand this could be the last home game LeBron James has in a Cleveland Cavaliers jersey with a number of spots opening up for him once he decides to opt-out of his own contract.
James will be desperate to avoid the second sweep of his career in the NBA Finals, but it is hard to see what Cleveland can do to change the momentum of this Series. The Warriors are a better team on both ends of the court and the erratic nature of the Cleveland shooters makes it hard to really know if they can put together a full 48 minutes needed to beat Golden State.
Unlike Game 3 the atmosphere may not be as hostile this time around with the fans likely recognising how much more difficult this Finals is compared with 2016 when Cleveland famously came back from 1-3 down.
With Andre Iguodala also back offering Golden State some minutes it looks like the Warriors can complete the sweep on Friday evening. They may just have to deflate the building with a stronger start than the one made in Game 3, but once the Warriors do that they should be able to take control of this one and eventually wear down the Cavaliers.
The spread is the same as it was in Game 3 but I like Golden State to win and cover again and underline their dominance of the Cleveland Cavaliers who could be left in limbo once LeBron James makes his decision about his future in the off-season.
MY PICKS: 31/05 Golden State Warriors - 12.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
03/06 Golden State Warriors - 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
06/06 Golden State Warriors - 4 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
08/06 Golden State Warriors - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
NBA Finals 2018: 2-1, + 0.86 Units (3 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
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