Tennis Picks 2018 (June 18th)

After a mixed French Open with some bad selections in the second week of the tournament it was good to get the grass court season off to a strong start last week.

With plenty of winners in the books the season totals have been turned back into a positive position for the year and I am looking to build on that when two big ATP 500 events take place in Halle and Queens Club, while the WTA Tour takes in a big event in Birmingham and Mallorca.

There are a lot of big names out on the courts this past week including the new World Number 1 Roger Federer having won the tournament in Stuttgart on Sunday. However the big story has to be the return of Andy Murray who has almost filled a full year on the Tour with an injury that has taken longer to clear up than it was first expected to.

In Tennis I am not sure your favourite players have to come from the country you are born in and for me it is almost certainly the case that the ones I admire most don't come from Great Britain. However I have a lot respect for Andy Murray who has had a fantastic career and who broke through barriers many felt he would not have been able to do.

We may never see Murray back to his very best and in all honesty I am not sure how many more years he will take to the grind of the Tour.

But it is great to have him back and I hope Murray can go out on his own terms by putting together a couple of really strong years on the Tour.


Andy Murray is expected back on the court on Tuesday, but for now the Tennis Picks will concentrate on the matches scheduled on Monday on what looks a busy day through the four tournaments being played this week. I will have analysis of a few of the matches below and then add the remaining Tennis Picks in the 'MY PICKS' section.


Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 games v Cameron Norrie: The lay off from the Tour was not as long as the one Andy Murray has been through but Stan Wawrinka has struggled to find his best tennis since his own enforced break from playing competitive tennis. He had a brief return in 2018 before a few more weeks off the Tour and the subsequent return has been difficult for a multiple time former Grand Slam Champion.

An early loss in Paris has meant Wawrinka has had a little break from the Tour but at least this time he should have been able to practice and try and rebuild his confidence. It is going to take some time and Wawrinka may not be at his happiest on the grass courts, but I am going to back him to get the better of Cameron Norrie.

I have little doubt the home fans will get behind Norrie, but I also have to accept that this is a player whose background may be British but he has not spent a lot of time in the country. While other British players would have a strong grass court pedigree in terms of experience, Norrie can't say the same and even Wawrinka in his current state of mind should be a little too good for him here.

Last week Norrie was beaten in the Challenger event run in Nottingham and that has dropped him to 2-6 on the grass courts in the last thirteen months. The learning curve on the grass courts can be a tough one and an in-form Wawrinka would have been a strong favourite to beat him.

You can't ignore the doubts about Wawrinka's fitness going into the match, but playing matches is the best thing for the former top five Ranked player. Wawrinka can be very effective behind serve on the grass courts and I think he can put Norrie under some pressure with power off the ground that Wawrinka can generate.

Norrie is still learning to get the best out of his serve on the grass and I think Wawrinka is going to prove to be a little too good for him on the day.


Jared Donaldson v Francis Tiafoe: This is a very close match to predict with neither Jared Donaldson or Francis Tiafoe in great form or comfortable on the grass courts, but I did think it was Donaldson who deserved to be the favourite to win the match.

He has certainly shown a little more than his compatriot on the grass courts and so I would have had Donaldson a number of ticks shorter in the prices than you can find in this one.

In saying that Donaldson is not exactly someone you can trust fully to produce his best when he can struggle to hold his serve, but the run at the French Open has to have given him some confidence to take into the grass court season.

And where the difference can be made is through Donaldson's return game which looks to be superior to Francis Tiafoe's on the grass courts. Tiafoe has limited experience on this surface and it may be seen as a time of the season to get through as quickly as possible before both players will feel much happier about North American hard court tournaments in the build to the US Open.

Tiafoe could be comfortable facing Donaldson, which would help, but his numbers are weaker on the grass courts compared to his overall record over the last twelve months. I am not sure he will turn that around and backing Donaldson here has to be right play at the prices being offered.


Sam Querrey - 4.5 games v Jay Clarke: Coming off the clay courts and onto the grass courts is a blessing for someone like Sam Querrey who has consistently produced strong results on this surface. It is no surprise when you consider the huge weapon of a serve he possesses and the former Queens Club Champion is rightly a big favourite against the promising Jay Clarke.

Clarke is still only 19 years old and he has been granted a Wild Card into the main draw at Queens Club this week but he is yet to show the consistency to really expect any kind of upset here. In fact I think it would be a real surprise if Clarke was to even win a set against Querrey on Monday especially when you think he has already lost both grass court matches he has played this season.

The numbers don't make for great reading in those two losses, but the bigger concern for someone like Clarke is the limited success he has had on the return of serve. That is unlikely to have changed much after facing someone like Querrey and Clarke's only real hope is the first match back on the grass courts means the American is perhaps a little undercooked for this First Round encounter.

It has to be said that Querrey did not serve as well as he would have wanted on the grass courts last season, but it is still a huge strength of his game and I am not sure Clarke will even earn a break point in this one. What is more interesting is whether Querrey can return anywhere like as effectively as he did last year on a surface where you would think his limited return game would not have a lot of success.

If he does then Querrey is going to have a big chance to breeze through this match, but I have a feeling his numbers will definitely slip back to the normal levels. However this is not an opponent who should cause too many problems for Querrey and Clarke will have to play a lot higher than his usual level to stay in this match.

Ultimately I am not sure he does that having lost to two players far below the level that Querrey can produce and I think the American breaks down the young British player and covers what does look a big number on paper.


Robin Haase - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: The last couple of times Robin Haase and Joao Sousa have met on the Tour have ended in wins for the Portuguese player, but the match on the grass courts in the First Round in Halle should favour Haase.

Neither player has a deep grass court pedigree which makes it tough to pick the winner, but Haase has had a couple of matches on the surface and generally plays better than Sousa does on this surface.

Since June 2017 Haase has produced some very strong serving numbers on the grass courts and that has to give him a chance to put some scoreboard pressure on Sousa. With an 88% hold percentage in those grass court matches Haase will feel he can make it very difficult for Sousa to break him especially with the way the latter has been returning on the grass courts in recent years.

One of the main reasons Haase has not been able to produce more wins is down to his own limited return game, but you do have to think he can have more joy against a vulnerable looking Sousa serve. You do have to give Sousa some credit for some strong numbers on the grass courts behind the serve, but there will be moments when he can put a few too many errors together and that should mean Haase has his chances to break the serve here.

The recent head to head has to be a concern but I think the surface is going to send the edge to Haase in the First Round match scheduled for Monday. Sousa has not bettered a combined 94% hold/break percentage over the last three years on the grass courts and that is a huge part of my selection which favours Haase who has played well without the results following on the grass.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: It was a difficult time for Roberto Bautista Agut who took to the courts in Paris just days after the passing of his mother in unexpected circumstances. You could see the emotion the Spaniard was playing with and he has had a couple of weeks to really come to terms with the loss of a parent.

This is a difficult moment for anyone in any walk of life but for athletes it is something that is played out on a worldwide platform as you have to perform in front of the paying public while dealing with a very private issue.

That is the case for Bautista Agut on his return to the Tour after the French Open but he seems to be a level headed player and I am backing him with the belief that he will be able to produce something like his best tennis. Bautista Agut has admitted he gets away from his real life when on the tennis court and his record on the grass courts suggests he can beat the home player Jan-Lennard Struff.

Bautista Agut did not have the best 2016 on the grass courts, but generally he has been very comfortable on the grass with some strong hold/break combined percentages in his matches. In 2018 Bautista Agut was back to the decent returning which makes him a tough out for anyone and I certainly think he is better on the grass than someone like Struff who was upset in the First Round in Stuttgart last week.

The defeat last week means Struff is just 3-13 on the grass courts since June 2014 and the main reason for that is the poor returning numbers he has produced. The German is still getting decent effort from the serve, but he has struggled with the combined hold/break percentage thanks to some subpar returning.

The Spaniard has won both previous matches between these two very comfortably and I think Bautista Agut's stronger grass court pedigree gets him through the First Round.


Denis Kudla - 2.5 games v Lukas Lacko: This is a rematch of a grass court match that took place in Surbiton a couple of weeks ago and I think Denis Kudla can frank that win against Lukas Lacko.

It was a dominant win the American produced against Lacko and his grass court numbers in 2018 have been very impressive as Kudla has racked up the wins.

The majority of the wins earned by Kudla have either come at the Challenger level or in the Qualifiers for the main ATP events. That is something to consider whenever Kudla plays the better opponents on the Tour, but Lacko is someone who is also very much on the same kind of level as the opponents Kudla has been beating.

Lacko has produced some strong numbers himself which makes him a dangerous opponent for Kudla, but the return game is a real weakness and that could be the difference on the day. The American has held 93% of service games on the grass courts in 2018 and that kind of success will put Lacko under some immense pressure which saw him collapse in their match in Surbiton.

I fully expect this match to be much closer than that one was, but I also like Kudla to frank his win with another one here and I think he can do enough to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jared Donaldson @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Robin Haase - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Kudla - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 12.72 Units (891 Units Staked, + 1.43% Yield)