French Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2018 (June 1st)

Thursday proved to be more than merely a positive day, but one that has moved the totals into a very positive position for the French Open as we move towards the Third Round.

The day didn't start that well with Elise Mertens failing to cover the number against Heather Watson despite leading 6-3, 4-1 at one stage.

Then the likes of Simona Halep, Rafael Nadal and Borna Coric all started slowly and I did not like the way was developing. But it all turned around from that moment.

All three of those players covered big numbers and there were plenty other winners on a day which ended 9-3. I'm glad I didn't get too down on the research in the early days of the tournament which has helped the numbers tick over this week and now I am looking to build on those results on Friday.

With Simona Halep, Alexander Zverev and Marin Cilic all reaching the Third Round all of the outright picks are still intact too which makes it a very good first five days at the second Grand Slam of the season.


Alexander Zverev - 8.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: In the last couple of years Alexander Zverev has improved massively which has been highlighted by his place as the World Number 3 in the Rankings. He has won Masters events but Zverev is yet to have a big impact in the Grand Slam having struggled under the weight of expectation which has developed around him.

Once he fell 2-1 down in sets to Dusan Lajovic in the Second Round it felt like it was going to be more of the same for Zverev who was struggling with his game. However he was able to turn that around and it is the kind of win that will give Zverev so much confidence that the French Open 2018 may be the time he can announce himself to a wider audience.

Spending over three hours on the court in the Second Round is not ideal for any player, but it shouldn't be a factor against Zverev in this match as Damir Dzumhur needed almost four hours to get past Radu Albot in the Second Round himself.

It is going to be a tough match for Dzumhur who has been having real problems with his serve in 2018 and that was the reason he dropped a 2-0 lead in sets and forced into a fifth last time out. Dzumhur is holding at just 60% overall on the clay courts, but his numbers take a serious dent when he is playing top 20 Ranked players and I do think this match is going to be firmly on the racquet of the young German.

Zverev has dominated players Ranked outside the top 20 on the clay courts in 2018 and produced a 13-1 record. His serve has been a big weapon for him on the clay over the last couple of months and that number has been steady against the weaker players. It is the return of serve that has been particularly dangerous and Zverev is breaking serve at almost 44% of the games he has been receiving in.

With Dzumhur's own struggles on the serve to think about, I think Zverev is going to be able to cover a big number. It won't surprise me if a couple of the sets are close, but I am anticipating Zverev to win at least one set by a wide margin and I think that gives him every chance of winning this match by a good margin.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Fernando Verdasco: I have mentioned that Grigor Dimitrov is an overrated player on the clay courts and the numbers have shown the struggles he has had for consistent results on the surface over the last few years. While you have to give him some credit for coming back to beat Jared Donaldson in the Second Round, the fact Dimitrov needed five sets to beat such an opponent is a worry for him going forward.

So it may come as a surprise that I am going to back the Bulgarian for a second time in the tournament when he faces comfortable clay courter Fernando Verdasco who was a straight sets winner in the Second Round.

However there remains a feeling that Verdasco is not at 100% and that means he may not have the same impact on this match as a fully good to go Verdasco would be able to. He beat an overmatched Guido Andreozzi in the Second Round, but had to dig deep to win in five sets in the First Round himself and so I am not too worried about Dimitrov fatiguing in this match.

He will want to get into the match in much better manner than he did against Donaldson, although Dimitrov produced solid numbers and perhaps was unfortunate to be behind. He is facing an opponent in Verdasco who has been erratic when it comes to protecting his serve and this match is likely going to come down to which of the players is able to have the most success with what have been underperforming returns.

If it is correct to suggest Verdasco is not fully healthy then Dimitrov should have even more of an edge and it is perhaps a surprise that the Spaniard does not have a stronger record at the French Open. Verdasco is just 4-7 playing top 20 Ranked players on the clay courts in his career and while Dimitrov is not as strong on this surface he is still a player who will feel this is the kind of match he should be winning at this stage of his career.

I would worry for Dimitrov if this does go deep into the match like his Second Round match did, but I think he edges out Verdasco in three or four sets.


Kei Nishikori - 6.5 games v Gilles Simon: These two players have passed each other in the World Rankings over the years but it is a huge surprise to me that Kei Nishikori and Gilles Simon are playing for the first time on the Tour.

Nishikori has already beaten one French hope in the tournament having needed to dig deep to beat Benoit Paire in five sets in the Second Round. He is one of a number of big name players who have had some real battles in the French Open draw already and Nishikori has to expect another one on Friday.

His opponent is having a couple of really strong weeks on the Tour as Gilles Simon reached the Final in Lyon last week before winning a couple of matches here. Simon did need some treatment in the Second Round win over Sam Querrey, but he looked much stronger afterwards and I am not looking for him to be hampered in this one.

There are some similarities with the games of both men who are not the biggest servers but rely on movement and consistency to break down opponents. That should mean we see some long rallies in this one, but I give Nishikori the edge when it comes to consistent weight of shot and that can be a difference maker in a match like this one.

It can't be ignored that Simon had been struggling for form prior to the run in Lyon last week and his numbers have been given a boost by the run. However the serve remains vulnerable and especially so against someone like Nishikori who has been winning 40% of points off the opponent's serve in 2018.

The Simon numbers also take a significant downward turn when facing top 20 Ranked players and his combined hold/serve percentages are down at 70% against those players on the clay courts in 2018. This coupled with Nishikori combining those to almost 120% against players outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings makes me feel Nishikori is going to be able to get the better of another home hope and he should be able to have every chance of covering this number of games.


Lucas Pouille-Karen Khachanov over 39.5 games: This is the third time Lucas Pouille and Karen Khachanov will have played one another in 2018, but the first time they are meeting on the clay courts. Both players have made serene progress through the draw with both winning in straight sets in the First Round and in four sets in the Second Round.

Confidence won't be an issue for either player, but picking a winner is very difficult as the layers are indicating.

Lucas Pouille is the right favourite but there are still some question marks about the big French hope in the men's draw. While the serve has been working well, he is still someone who gets tight at the business end of sets as he showed against Cameron Norrie and the opponent in the Third Round is a significant step up from what he has faced so far this week.

The young Russian Khachanov reached the Fourth Round at the French Open twelve months ago and is clearly comfortable on the clay courts even if he came to Paris with a couple of disappointing losses behind him. One of the problems Khachanov has had is on the return of serve and generating breaks of serve, but he has been holding at over 80% on the clay courts which is going to make it tough for a limited returner like Pouille to get his teeth into return games.

The Pouille serve has been effective for the most part too and it does feel we could see at least four tight sets and possibly a fifth set needed to work out a winner here. Both previous matches between these players have gone the full three sets with both Pouille and Khachanov relying on strong serving to put the pressure on the other.

Trying to pick a winner is almost guessing a bit in a match that has the makings of being as close as this one. Instead I am going to look for the serves to be key for both players and they should be able to combine to cover the total games mark in this one.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: This has all the makings of a huge hitting epic at the French Open with both Petra Kvitova and Anett Kontaveit in strong form both prior to Paris and through the first couple of Rounds here. It has been slightly more straight-forward for Kontaveit than Kvitova, but the latter is rightly the favourite for this match.

These two players met in Madrid and it was Kvitova who came through in three sets after dropping an opening set on the tie-breaker.

Much of that match was decided on the big points with Kvitova saving a lot of break points and managing to break through the Kontaveit defences enough to win the match by a decent margin at the end.

Petra Kvitova has played ten matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay this season and she has gone 9-1 in those matches. Eight of those wins have seen Kvitova cover this number and the Czech player has been serving and returning better than ever on the clay courts which has made her one of the favourites to win the tournament.

She will be tested by Kontaveit who has a big game that has to be admired, although I think she needs to get a little more out of the serve if she is going to challenge the very best players. The Estonian is 6-3 on the clay courts when playing top 20 players and that has to be respected, but the three losses have been one-sided which is a slight concern for her.

I do think when a match like this turns against Kontaveit that she is not quite able to stem the tide as quickly as she would like. I think the superior Kvitova returning is going to be a key to the outcome of the match and I am looking for her to win this match and cover the number as she moves through to the second week of the French Open.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille-Karen Khachanov Over 38.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 8.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 30-21, + 16.30 Units (98 Units Staked, + 16.63% Yield)