After a week of predicting rain, the weather forecasters at Roland Garros finally got things right on Friday although thankfully the majority of the Third Round matches scheduled managed to be completed.
The forecast looks much better for Saturday and the lucky patrons visiting the French Open are going to have a loaded day of tennis with some huge names on the courts as the Fourth Round draw is completed. With four matches held over from Friday it means there is more Singles tennis than expected and I would recommend anyone in Paris to get to the grounds bright and early and enjoy the whole day which is supposed to be bathed in sunshine.
Friday was not nearly as good as Thursday, but it could have been a lot worse after opening the day 0-3 when all three picks made strong starts before playing some key points poorly which turned things against them. A couple of winners later in the day got things turned back around and so I will take the day as it came.
I have a number of Picks from the Saturday matches which I have liked and that came as something of a surprise to me. I really thought the selections would be much harder to find once we got to this stage, but a number of them have fitted into my research and I have to go where that takes me after a strong first week has been put in the books.
Alexander Zverev surviving being 2-1 down in sets for the second time in succession means all three outright picks are also still alive, although my confidence in Zverev has been shaken because of how much tennis he has put into the legs.
Serena Williams - 1.5 games v Julia Goerges: With Singles and Doubles action going into the legs to shake out the match rustiness you have to feel the rest of the women's draw are beginning to worry about Serena Williams. While it is conceivable that she could have lost both Singles matches played so far this week, the improving form she showed in the win over Ashleigh Barty has to be intimidating to the rest of the field especially when you think how well Barty had been playing on the clay courts.
Williams is paired up with sister Venus this week in the Doubles and they both made it through to the Third Round of the Doubles tournament with a win on Thursday. The time spent on court could be a factor for Serena Williams, although the story goes she didn't take part in any of the clay court events this season as she was focused on building her fitness.
That is going to be tested in this tournament and next up to take their shot at the Champion is Julia Goerges who won a tough Second Round match over Alison Van Uytvank.
Goerges has had some strong results on the clay courts in her career, but she has been a little inconsistent on the surface in recent times. The two wins this week will have given Goerges confidence and she has a serve that will cause Serena problems if she is not timing the return well.
The return game has not been quite at full tilt for Serena Williams this week, but her own serve should put Goerges under immense pressure with the struggles on return that the German goes through. And at that point it will feel like this match could come down to the two personalities of the players on the court which is not a good position for many players when they come up against Serena Williams.
She willed her way back into the Second Round win over Barty and the improving play at the end of that match has to be scary to those who think she is not capable of winning the title with the little tennis she has played. I think Serena Williams is going to use that strength of character to work her way into this match and I expect her to break down the Goerges return which can be poor and that should see the former World Number 1 move into the Fourth Round with a good win and a cover of this number.
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 games v Angelique Kerber: One player that was clearly being circled as a genuine dark horse to win the title in Paris has been quietly moving under the radar into the Third Round of the draw. Now the light will shine on Kiki Bertens in a big match against Angelique Kerber who is a two time former Grand Slam Champion although perhaps at her weakest on the clay courts.
Both players have not been tested in the draw so far, but Bertens and Kerber will completely understand that their level has to go up when facing the other on Saturday.
Much is going to depend on which of the players is able to impose their game on the other in this Third Round match- Kiki Bertens has a big serve and powerful groundstrokes as she will look to take control of rallies, but Angelique Kerber is a fine mover and defender around the court and will believe she can extract errors from the Bertens game.
When they met two years ago they needed three sets to find a winner, but it was Bertens who came through and I think the Dutchwoman can do the same this year.
I give Bertens the edge because she has looked the superior clay court player over the last three seasons and the numbers have backed that up. The serve has proved a big weapon and it has to be noted that Kerber's return game is not quite as effective on the clay as it is on the other surfaces where she can use the power coming towards her and direct it much better and with more authority.
The Kerber serve is not the biggest weapon on the Tour, but it is especially vulnerable to an aggressive player like Bertens on the clay courts and these factors seem to add up to go against the German.
There is no doubting that Kerber is a top player on her day, but perhaps it is fair to say she doesn't have as many of those days on the clay courts. While Kerber will be a threat in the remaining Slams to be played in 2018, I think Bertens will be the one imposing her game on this match and she can back up her strong data to win and cover this number.
Kyle Edmund v Fabio Fognini: Any time you play someone as enigmatic as Fabio Fognini it can be tough to know what to expect from the Italian when you head onto the court. This is a player who can take the game to the very best players on the Tour yet cruise to a straight sets defeat against an opponent only the strongest tennis fan could pick out in a line up.
So far this week in Paris Fognini has brought out the competitive player who is focused and looking to play tennis the right way to get through matches. That has seen Fognini ease to back to back wins, but the challenge in front of him is by far the toughest he has had in the French Open when facing Kyle Edmund.
In previous years you would favour an Italian over a British player on the clay courts out of principle, but Kyle Edmund may be the most comfortable clay courter coming out of Great Britain. While Andy Murray learned to love the red dirt, Edmund's strengths have been clear on the clay for the last few years and he has begun to improve on other surfaces which has helped him move into the British Number 1 spot.
The numbers on the clay court have been as good as any he has produced in his career and any player who has a combined hold/break percentage of just under 109% is clearly a very competent on the surface. That is slightly better than Fognini's numbers on the clay courts and better than any the Italian has ever produced on the clay which just underlines how well Edmund can play on the surface.
It will be a close match, but I do think Edmund is an improving player and Fognini has not made it beyond the Third Round at the French Open since 2011. It will likely need four or possibly five sets to decide it, while the Edmund issue with his finger in the Second Round also is a slight concern.
However I think Edmund has looked very good in the tournament as he has maintained his form and I am going to look for him to get past Fognini in what could be a classic match.
Borna Coric - 1.5 sets v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: It is Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who is Ranked higher than Borna Coric and he has come through his two matches in Paris without dropping a set compared with Coric who has needed four sets to win his two matches.
So I am guessing some will be surprised to see Coric as the favourite to win this match.
Not me though.
Borna Coric is one of the most improving players on the Tour and he has clearly gotten over the wall he hit after making his initial breakthrough on the Tour. He may 'only' be 7-4 on the clay courts in 2018 including his two wins in Paris, but Coric has been unfortunate in losing tough matches to the likes of Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem while one of the losses was an early retirement.
The Croatian has always been competent on the clay courts, but his numbers have taken a significant step up this season and the combined hold/break percentage is at almost 114% which is a superb number. He has continued to serve very well in Paris and that is putting opponents under immense pressure, while Coric returns well enough to make sure those opponents are not able to get comfortable at any point in a match.
No one will dispute Schwartzman's credentials on the clay, but his two wins this week have come against opponents Ranked outside the top 100 compared with Coric beating Philipp Kohlschreiber and Thomas Fabbiano. The Schwartzman numbers are impressive thanks to a strong return game, but his serve can be vulnerable and his head to head with Coric doesn't inspire much confidence.
Schwartzman is also just 6-5 on the clay courts in the European swing when you include the two wins in Paris so far. He has not been at his best in recent weeks and is facing an opponent in Coric who is far better than what he has been opposed by in the French Open.
I do think Schwartzman could have his moments in the match, but Coric can win this one and I think he does it in three or four sets.
Rafael Nadal - 9.5 games v Richard Gasquet: The French public will be completely behind Richard Gasquet in their home Grand Slam even when he is facing the King of the French Open in Rafael Nadal. Unsurprisingly they meet on the main court at the French Open going on fourth on Phillipe Chatrier Court, but it is going to take some huge effort for Gasquet to be competitive in this one.
They have met a number of times on the clay courts and Nadal's numbers are actually frightening which makes me wonder what Gasquet can do to change things. These two met at the French Open in 2005 and it was Nadal who won while giving up just nine games, while a Davis Cup tie in Spain in 2011 ended with Nadal crushing Gasquet for the loss of just four games.
Nadal has won almost 50% of the points against the Gasquet serve in their head to head on the clay courts and he is matching that number overall in 2018 on the surface. The Spaniard's hold/break percentage is downright mind boggling on the clay courts in 2018 and Nadal crushed Guido Pella in the Second Round after being pushed by an ultra aggressive Simone Bolelli in the First Round.
By all accounts that is the approach Gasquet is going to try and use to put Nadal under pressure, but it is asking a lot for him to change his approach completely. While he can do that for a set or a set and a half, at some point Gasquet will go back to type and that is going to see Nadal control the rallies and break down his game over the course of a couple of hours.
Gasquet is a very good clay court player and he would be a match for most, but his serve has not quite been up to scratch in 2018 as he has perhaps been dealing with some injury issues that have not been made public. He has only been winning 60% of points behind serve in 2018 and that has led to a 73% hold number, but that is not going to cut the mustard against Nadal in the form he has been displaying.
Of course this looks a very big number, but Gasquet does tend to exit Roland Garros with something of a whimper despite the positive numbers he can produce in the clay courts. Last year it was an injury which ended Gasquet's tournament here, but previously he had been beaten by Andy Murray (9 game margin), Novak Djokovic (12 game margin), Fernando Verdasco (10 game margin) and Nadal is closer to Djokovic than the other two players.
I think something similar is going to happen when these players meet in the Third Round and I think Nadal is going to win a close set as he deals with Gasquet's aggressiveness before the match settles into a more familiar feel and the Spaniard wins by another comfortable margin against the home hope.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 9.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev-Kevin Anderson Play a Tie-Breaker @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner-Pierre-Hugues Herbert Over 41.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maximilian Marterer Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Marin Cilic Win 3.1 @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Magdalena Rybarikova @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daria Gavrilova + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Simona Halep-Andrea Petkovic Over 17.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
French Open Update: 32-25, + 12.70 Units (110 Units Staked, + 11.55% Yield)
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