French Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2018 (June 5th)

You can only describe it as a frustrating day when you see someone lose a match when they are 2-0 up in sets, but it is all the worse when noting Kevin Anderson served for the match in the third set and the fourth set and both times failed to get the job done.

My results here are always based on a pre-match read and the final result of said match, so there is nothing to be done. But anyone following my Twitter page would have seen I predicted there should be a lay of Anderson at the end of the third and when he was a break up in the fourth as he looked physically spent.

Unfortunately that won't count here while it was another rough day that had been close to the promises of success. And my overall feeling wasn't helped when Marin Cilic did the same against Fabio Fognini later in the day, although he got to match point at least which Anderson did not managed to do.

At least Marin Cilic joined Simona Halep and progressed to the Quarter Final as one of the outright picks. It means we have a strong price on Halep to beat Angelique Kerber where I expect the Romanian will be favourite and also on Cilic in his match with Juan Martin Del Potro although I expect the latter to be the favourite in that Quarter Final.


Some how the French Open has avoided what has been a miserable forecast for much of the two weeks here but the rain has been good enough to stay away from the only Slam without a roofed court.

They will need more luck in the days ahead to continue moving in the right direction, but keep the fingers crossed as we move into the Quarter Final Round at the Grand Slam.


Dominic Thiem-Alexander Zverev over 38.5 games: If this match had been set for the First Round and you had to price it up at the beginning of the French Open, I would guess that the majority of people would have placed Alexander Zverev as a pretty healthy favourite. The two players have had contrasting runs to the French Open Quarter Final though and that is the main reason Dominic Thiem is the favourite to win this match and a strong looking favourite too.

The last three Thiem wins have all come in four sets, but none of them have really been gruelling, long matches while Zverev's run to the Quarter Final is well documented.

Not only has Zverev needed to win his last three matches in five sets, but each time he has been 2-1 down in sets and that wears you down as much emotionally as it does physically. The young German has downplayed the worries about his fitness and any player who has reached back to back Masters Finals in Madrid and Rome can justifiably say that, but these best of five set matches are much tougher than the best of three and have to have an affect on Zverev regardless of what he might say.

Zverev has not served as well as he would have liked in the tournament, but the return continues to be a strength to build upon what he has done on the clay courts in 2018. That return will be tested by Dominic Thiem who has headed into Paris off a title win in Lyon and continued to serve at a very high level which has helped him progress through the last four Rounds without too many scares.

If Thiem can bring that kind of serving to the fore he will be tough to beat, especially if Zverev is feeling any fatigue in the legs. And that will be a real problem if Zverev continues to just find life a little tougher on the serve than he has been feeling so far during the clay court swing.

You have to think Zverev is hoping for the rain to come if that means having a little more time to prepare for this match, but even then I think he will be more competitive than some do. Yes it is going to be an issue with the amount of tennis he has had to play to reach this Quarter Final, but I think Zverev matches up well enough with Thiem after demolishing him in Madrid, although those conditions perhaps suited him more than the Austrian.

They have played some close matches recently too and I have a feeling this could be another one of those. While Zverev has some questions surrounding his fitness, Thiem has played two weeks of tennis himself and this is a real test of his credentials after being beaten comfortably by Zverev when they met in the Madrid Final.

Thiem has been returning well in the tournament with at least 40% of points won on the return of serve in every match so far. His overall numbers have been stronger than Zverev so I can see why he is a favourite when you also add in the amount of tennis the German has played, but I don't believe Zverev goes away quietly if he is beaten.

There have been some very good matches in the men's draw so far this tournament and I think this has the potential to be another. I do think it will go at least four sets and I am not expecting either player to really fall away barring a huge physical issue which should give them the chance to cover this total number of games.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: There are many Grand Slam tournaments where a surprise name works their way through to the business end of the tournament and this time around it is Marco Cecchinato. While winning the title in Budapest as a Lucky Loser, Cecchinato has not really shown the level that would have seen him beat the likes of Pablo Carreno Busta and David Goffin and especially not when he was 2-0 down in the First Round.

All credit has to be given to the Italian for his run and he is very comfortable on the clay courts which could make him a dangerous opponent for Novak Djokovic in the Quarter Final.

Things have gone well for Djokovic who has played a steady tournament but seen the likes of Fernando Verdasco and Cecchinato open things up for him. Instead of Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin, Verdasco and Cecchinato is something Djokovic would have signed up for, although the former World Number 1 will have to be careful against a confident opponent.

The 105% hold/break percentage on the clay courts prior to Paris are some pretty solid numbers from Cecchinato but those drop down to 96% if you only consider full Tour matches. The Italian is vastly playing above those levels in the last three Rounds at the French Open though and it will be interesting to see if he can maintain those against Novak Djokovic who is playing as well as anyone not called Rafael Nadal in the draw.

Djokovic has a 111% hold/break percentage on the clay this season and he has played very well in the tournament so far. There are still some areas for improvement to really see Djokovic get close to his very best and one of those is not throwing in the silly games which has seen him broken more than he would have liked in the tournament.

His game has always been one that could see players try and attack the serve, but Djokovic at his best is very good at defending the initial onslaught and turning the rally back around in his favour. He has yet to really get back to that level, but I think Djokovic is returning well enough to put Cecchinato under pressure and see whether he can help him move his numbers back down to the usual levels he has produced on the clay in 2018.

This is a big number for a Quarter Final match but Djokovic should be able to turn the screw on Cecchinato where others have failed. Carreno Busta was a set and a break up before falling away, but Djokovic looks to be performing at an altogether more consistent level than his opponent in this one and it is a big ask for Cecchinato.

Nerves could also play a factor in a Grand Slam Quarter Final for Cecchinato and I think Djokovic will work him over and eventually prevail with a solid looking win on his way to another Semi Final in Paris.


Madison Keys - 4.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: The experiences of the run to the US Open Final are going to stand Madison Keys in good stead in her career, but I think even the American would be surprised by the run on the clay courts of Paris. Reaching the Quarter Final in an open section of the draw has given Keys some real confidence and it certainly will give her belief when we get round to Wimbledon and the US Open.

For now Keys will look to continue what has been an under the radar run to the Quarter Final and she has been in dominant form in the tournament which makes her a danger. The Keys serve is clearly a big weapon for the American and she has been in strong form on that side of her game with just seven breaks of serve given up in her four matches in Paris.

Her overall level in 2018 on the clay courts have been pretty good and match up with what Keys has been able to produce in her career on the surface. However she is arguably serving better than ever on the surface which is feeding into her return game and Keys has been devastatingly good on that side of her game.

Keys has won at least 49% of return points in every game in the French Open this season and getting anything like that from that side of her game on Tuesday is going to be put a lot of pressure on Yulia Putintseva.

Putintseva may be the most surprising of all sixteen players left in both men's and women's draws who had been just 2-5 on the clay before the French Open. The performances on the clay haven't been bad in terms of the raw numbers, but you would have thought someone was going to be a little too good for Putintseva in the tournament, but she continues to spring the surprises.

The return has, unsurprisingly, been a key to the successes Putintseva has had in the tournament and it is going to be very important for her to try and get some pressure on Keys in this match. Putintseva has the scrambling ability around the court to at least make Keys win this match by defending a lot of the big shots coming at her, but if she struggles against the big first serve it could be a very tough Quarter Final for the Kazakhstan player.

It was Putintseva who won their sole previous match and she is a real battler who can play enough decent tennis to remain competitive. However her own serve is one that is going to be attacked by Keys in the form she is in and I think it will be very difficult for Putintseva to really keep the American at bay during the course of this match.

While Putintseva will put Keys in some very difficult positions and have her chances to break, I think Keys has the experience at Grand Slam at this stage and is also playing at a level slightly above her opponent. If the return continues firing as it has, I think Keys win this match and wins by a good margin.


Daria Kasatkina v Sloane Stephens: This is a fascinating Quarter Final between two players who may feel they are playing well enough to take the title home and surprise as Jelena Ostapenko did last year. The bottom half of the women's draw has opened up with so many of the top names out of the tournament and all four ladies left will feel they can at least reach the Final and then who knows what will happen.

Sloane Stephens knows all about getting hot at the Grand Slam level and that leading to a surprise success after winning the US Open last September. There hasn't been a lot of success since then, but once again the American was able to put it all together and win the title in Miami in March.

She looks to be getting hot in Paris and Stephens is more comfortable on the clay courts than you may imagine. Stephens has decent enough numbers coming into the tournament which are comparable to Daria Kasatkina's although the latter is the favourite to win this match.

Stephens has been returning very well in Paris and that has been good enough to come through the matches while she was resting on Monday as Kasatkina completed her win over Wozniacki.

Both players are very strong returners and it is going to be a match that features plenty of break points when they meet in the Quarter Final. Stephens will hope her experience is good enough to see off Kasatkina at the very big moments that do determine these close contests and the feeling I have is that the American has the slightly better serve which can see her over the line.

The young Russian is in great form, but I do think the serve remains a vulnerability that could be the reason she is not yet ready to win a Grand Slam title. However the overall play is so good to watch that you have to feel this player is developing in the right direction and Kasatkina could be in the business end of major tournaments for years to come.

Kasatkina has been very good on the clay courts and she has shown improving form in the build to Paris with losses to Petra Kvitova and Elina Svitolina forgivable. Of course she could find Stephens a little too mentally tough, but Kasatkina looks a player with a lot of belief in her own game and has the narrowly superior numbers than Stephens on the clay.

There have been a couple of extremely dominant wins which have helped skew those a little bit for Stephens though and I think Kasatkina is able to get through this match. It may go three sets, but I think Kasatkina is showing enough to get the better of Stephens in a tough one.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem-Alexander Zverev Over 38.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

French Open Update: 42-46, - 11.40 Units (169 Units Staked, - 6.75% Yield)