French Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2018 (June 6th)

The big disappointment of a couple of days ago when Serena Williams had to pull out of her scheduled match against Maria Sharapova should be replaced on Wednesday when Sharapova takes on Garbine Muguruza in what could be a great Quarter Final in Paris. It is obviously a shame what has happened to Serena Williams and we can only hope the injury is a short-term issue, but the women's tournament is still heating up nicely.

The two Quarter Final matches set for Wednesday both look very good on paper and it looks like another fascinating day at Roland Garros.


There was some positive news away from the French Open on Tuesday with Andy Murray being interviewed and admitting he is getting closer and closer to a return to the Tour. The grass court season begins in the coming days and the return of Murray will mean the men's Tour will have all the big names back in action although there is a long road back to the very top for the likes of Murray and Stan Wawrinka.

Both Murray and Wawrinka are going to need time, but they should be encouraged by Novak Djokovic and also what Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have been able to do coming back from injuries too. However it can't be ignored how tough the Tour is when having had the kind of lay offs both Wawrinka and Murray have had and it will need time to rebuild the rhythm.


Marin Cilic-Juan Martin Del Potro over 40.5 games: The head to head does not make for very good reading for Marin Cilic, although he has only played Juan Martin Del Potro twice since the back end of the 2016 season. However you have to feel the 10-2 head to head lead for the Argentinian is going to be factored into the prices as well as the fact that Cilic needed five sets to get through his Fourth Round match a couple of days ago.

In a match that looks to be as closely matched on paper I do think it is foolish to ignore the head to head record.

Both players have been looking after serve effectively during the clay court swing as well as in the tournament in Paris, while Cilic and Del Potro are underrated returners on the surface. The two players both had 40% returning points won during the 2018 clay court swing, and both Cilic and Del Potro and have maintained those numbers in the French Open.

The prices clearly do look at the head to head in favour of Del Potro and that long five setter Cilic was involved with against Fabio Fognini and I think it will be Del Potro who gets the better of this match up between two former US Open Champions. The returning Del Potro produced against John Isner in the Fourth Round makes him very dangerous in this tournament and I think the Del Potro serve and forehand is a little more reliable than Cilic's.

In saying that Cilic may feel this surface is one on which he is stronger than Del Potro even though it is the latter who has won all four previous matches between them on the clay. The numbers that Cilic has produced have been at their best on the clay over the last twelve months and he is someone who has won big matches at the Grand Slams already this season when knocking out Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open before pushing Roger Federer to five sets in the Final.

It is hard to shake the head to head and the fact that Del Potro has won the last five sets competed by these two players since being 2-0 down in a Davis Cup tie in September 2016. My fear for Cilic would be getting too down on himself if he falls behind in this one when his record against Del Potro and the potential fatigue will be most on the mind of the Croatian player.

However I do think Cilic is playing well enough to take at least a set from Del Potro with the serve working well for the most part. There may be a few key points in each set which determine whether Cilic can get the break and go on or whether Del Potro plays them as well as he did against Isner in the Fourth Round and is able to hold Cilic at bay.

For me it feels like a match that will go at least four sets but the edge is rightly given to Del Potro over the course of the Quarter Final. I will look for the big serving to be a key for both players and I will back the two to combine for more than the total games set in the market.


Rafael Nadal - 9.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: The post-match interviews with both Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Kevin Anderson suggested neither player could really explain how Schwartzman came back from 2-0 down to win that Fourth Round match. Kevin Anderson not only served for the match at the end of a dominant third set, but did the same at the end of the fourth set only to be broken both times and exit the tournament in the Fourth Round again.

The question for Schwartzman is how much has that match taken out of him physically and emotionally having coming back from 2-0 down for the first time in his career. The clay courts are clearly his most comfortable surface, but Schwartzman has reached the Quarter Final here having done the same in the US Open in 2017.

Much of the outcome of this match is going to be determined by how well Schwartzman has recovered and how much he learnt from the Quarter Final loss at the US Open. If there are some fatigue issues coming out of the match with Anderson this is the last opponent Schwartzman would want to face.

Rafael Nadal may not always look like a ten time French Open winner on the court with the desire and energy he continues to show for every point that is being played. That may be more in line with what you would expect from a player who is looking to prove he belongs with the elite, but it is also the reason Nadal has been so dominant for years on the clay.

Nadal continues to produce the stellar numbers which make him a huge favourite to win on this surface against anyone he plays and the serene progress through the draw means there are no issues fitness wise. And with that in mind and Schwartzman's tough Fourth Round match it is no surprise that Nadal is considered a very strong favourite to win this match on Wednesday.

However it would be foolish to ignore the close matches they have played against one another in the last fifteen months especially as a couple of those have come on the clay courts. In those matches Nadal has been the dominant player, but Schwartzman has been able to stay with him although the conditions in Paris are going to be much more difficult to hit through the Spaniard as you may be able to do in Madrid or on the hard courts of the Australian Open.

Over the best of five set format I think Nadal is going to wear down Schwartzman a little better than he has been able to do in their recent matches. At some point you have to think some of the fitness issues come out for Schwartzman who can return well on the surface but whose own serve is vulnerable to someone as good as Nadal.

This is still a big number if Schwartzman is returning anything like he can do on the clay and Nadal has been dropping serve from time to time which makes the bigger numbers harder to cover. However it will need Schwartzman to really make sure he is fully fit to run and work hard for up to three hours and I do think that will wear down the Argentinian who had to invest so much physically and emotionally into his Fourth Round win.

Poor weather could help Schwartzman if this match is delayed another day, but I think he could struggle in the match to reach the intensity needed and Nadal can comfortably progress to another Semi Final here in Paris.


Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: These two players have been involved in some memorable matches in their careers against one another, but perhaps no more so than when they met in the Semi Final at the Australian Open in January. On that occasion it was Simona Halep who came back from the brink of defeat to beat Angelique Kerber and move through to the Final in an epic three set win.

The hard courts are perhaps a surface which is going to provide a much more even setting for both Halep and Kerber, but the Romanian has proved to be a much better clay court player in the last couple of years.

While you have to keep that in mind, Kerber has to be respected for a fantastic run in the French Open which has seen her win a couple of matches in really impressive style. In fact the German has been in good form throughout the last ten days, but the manner of her victories over Kiki Bertens and Caroline Garcia suggest she is playing far above her usual levels on the clay courts.

Kerber reached the Quarter Final here in 2012 and has matched that run this year, but it is asking a lot of her to beat Halep playing in the form she is in. While Kerber does lead the head to head between these players, the majority of the wins came during a two year peak level of performance for Kerber and only one of those wins came on the clay.

The win at the Australian Open will definitely improve the mindset of Halep going into this match and, while Kerber is playing well, Halep is playing at a really high level. The Kerber numbers have to be respected so far in the French Open, but Halep's have been higher with strong serve and return numbers giving her the edge over the German in this Quarter Final.

I have to respect Kerber's returning numbers this week which have helped her come through some tough matches. However I don't think her movement on the clay is anything like as comfortable as Halep's and she is now facing an opponent who can match her consistency from the back of the court but who is capable of finding the right angles to put Kerber's movement to the test.

There should be a few breaks of serve in this one and both players will have their moments of getting some momentum behind them, but I think Halep can show she is the superior player on this surface. That may be enough for her to move through to the Semi Final and eventually wear down Kerber in this big match.


Garbine Muguruza-Maria Sharapova over 2.5 sets: There won't be too many times you will see a match up in a Quarter Final of a Grand Slam where the two participants needed just two games combined to make it through to their Fourth Round matches. That is the case for Maria Sharapova and Garbine Muguruza who both were essentially the beneficiaries of walkovers in the Fourth Round to set up a huge match between two former French Open Champions.

Some may even go as far as to say the winner of this match is likely going to be the favourite to go on and win the title despite being in the tougher top half of the women's draw.

Both Sharapova and Muguruza have played well in the French Open to reach this stage, although it is the Spaniard who has found a consistent higher level than her Russian opponent. There haven't been too many concerns for Muguruza who has backed up her strong serving with some impressive returning performances that will make her a danger to anyone left in the draw.

However she is bound to be challenged by Sharapova who has shown plenty of heart and determination in her matches and produced her very best in her last match in the Third Round win over Karolina Pliskova. The levels produced in that match is going to be tough to replicate for Sharapova, but she is someone who won't roll over and her ability to fight has to be respected.

Muguruza is also someone who has rarely rolled over for any opponent and her eight losses this season have seen six of those needing three sets before the result was confirmed. Five of the seven losses suffered by Sharapova have also gone the same distance including all three defeats suffered so far on the clay courts and there is every chance that tis match will do the same.

It is Maria Sharapova who has won all three professional matches between these players but those were played back in 2013 and 2014 and Muguruza is considerably better now. Their match in the 2014 French Open Quarter Final was the first time Muguruza had reached this stage of a Grand Slam, but she has since won two Slams and that improvement is the reason she is a favourite in this one when coupling it with the generally superior numbers produced by the Spaniard in this tournament.

If Muguruza gets on a roll she can be tough to stop, but Sharapova has played well enough during the clay court swing and in Paris to think she will have her chances too. The women's tournament hasn't had much drama over the last few days with a lot of very easy wins for players progressing, but this one should be different and I will look for three sets to be needed before we find a Semi Finalist.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 40.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 9.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (0 Units)
Garbine Muguruza-Maria Sharapova Over 2.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)

French Open 2018 Update: 42-50, - 19.40 Units (177 Units Staked, - 10.96% Yield)