Tennis Picks 2018 (June 13th)

I was out on Monday which meant I was unable to do the research I would have liked for the Tennis matches that were scheduled to be played on Tuesday and so there were no Picks yesterday.

That is not the case on Wednesday as I look to build on what was a very good Monday for the Tennis Picks which went 5-2.

With the World Cup kicking off in Russia on Thursday, I have automated my Outright Picks from that tournament to come out tomorrow and will then have the thread for the first round of Group games ready to go on Thursday with Picks added through the tournament.

At the same time I will continue to put the Tennis Picks together whenever I find matches that fit into my requirements and those will come throughout the grass court season in the build to Wimbledon.

Like Monday I will have the analysis of the men's matches I am picking from Hertogenbosch and Stuttgart and add the women's selections in the 'MY PICKS' part of the thread.


Yuichi Sugita v Marius Copil: Both men have got their grass court seasons off to strong starts with good looking wins on Monday and the layers are setting the line for this one as a pick 'em.

I can understand why Yuichi Sugita is the narrow favourite to win this match and I like the price enough to back him after doing the same in the First Round. I said at the time I leaned towards Marius Copil beating Aljaz Bedene, but I wasn't completely convinced by the relatively poor return numbers on the grass courts which were still on show in the win the big server had.

You can get carried away with how big Copil serves which should make him very tough to break down on the grass courts, but Sugita's returning is the key to this match. He has shown he can put opponents under pressure on the grass and actually beat Copil relatively comfortably on the surface last year in Surbiton.

The Sugita serve is also an underrated shot on the grass and I think he will be able to exploit the limited return game that Copil has. It should mean Sugita is going to get the better of the rallies once we get past the first couple of shots on the Copil serve and I think that does give him the edge in this Second Round match.

Scoreboard pressure could be the best way for Copil to find a way to beat Sugita but I would imagine it is the latter who has the majority of the break point chances in this match. I also think Sugita is the more effective overall player on the grass courts and he can do enough to beat Copil and move onto another Quarter Final on this surface.


Gilles Muller - 1.5 games v Matthew Ebden: The move off the clay courts and back onto the grass should be good for Gilles Muller, although the left hander could be overrated after an especially strong 2017 on the surface. Prior to that his numbers had not been as impressive, but the big serve will always make Muller dangerous.

Last year it was the returning numbers that really jumped off the page and helped Muller with a strong run at Wimbledon that saw him beat Rafael Nadal.

It was a special season for Muller on that front and I am not convinced he will replicate those on the grass courts in 2018. However the serve should remain a big weapon for him and it can be one that can put pressure on opponents to make sure they are holding onto their own serve.

Matthew Ebden will have to face that in the Second Round in Hertogenbosch, but his confidence could not be in a better place having reached the Semi Final in Surbiton last week. He played a lot of tennis and putting the wins together would have raised the belief going into a match of this magnitude for him.

The Australian had some decent numbers on the grass courts in 2017, but he was operating at a lower level than the one he is facing on Wednesday. Ebden doesn't have the best returning numbers which makes this a very tough match up for him and I do think it will be the scoreboard pressure which sees Muller get in front in this one with one break likely enough to see him through a set.

Muller's serve is also likely to be a difference maker in any tie-breaker situation which comes into the match and I like the big serving left hander to win this match and cover the number.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: This is a very interesting grass court match, but I do think the improving youngster is perhaps a little underrated even as a convincing favourite in this match.

Daniil Medvedev didn't have a good clay court campaign, but he is much more at home on the grass courts and I expect some solid wins for him in the weeks head. He was a very good winner in the First Round when dismissing Yuki Bhambri in straight sets and getting his feet back on the grass should give him the edge over veteran Fernando Verdasco.

For the Spaniard it is a first match back on the grass courts and he has performed admirably on the surface over the years. However there has been a clear decline in the numbers over the last few years and I think that will be give Medvedev the edge in this Second Round match.

While the Verdasco serving numbers are still relatively strong, his hold percentage on the grass has dropped from 86% to 82% over the last four years to 2017 and that slippage can be very detrimental to a player whose return game has not been too hot on this surface. There was a relatively successful 17% break percentage in 2016, but the other three seasons where the serve has slipped has seen Verdasco breaking in less than 14% of games.

He may have a little more of a chance breaking the Medvedev serve, which is still developing into the kind of weapon he would like, but it is the return game from the Russian which really stands out. He has broken at 28% in 2016 and 30% in 2017 which is a very strong showing on the grass courts and Medvedev broke the Bhambri serve four times in the First Round.

Medvedev should have the edge on the returning side of the game and I think he can win this one and cover the handicap.


Maximilian Marterer - 3.5 games v Viktor Galovic: You have to be careful not to be backing Maximilian Marterer at a time when he could be potentially overrated after a strong showing at the French Open. The memorable third set performance against Rafael Nadal in the Fourth Round will have given Marterer some real confidence, but this is a new surface and a new tournament for the youngster searching for some consistency.

I do think he can get the better of Lucky Loser Viktor Galovic who is playing his third grass court match in his career. He didn't play badly in Qualifying which suggests this is going to be far from an easy match for Marterer, but I do think Galovic could have his problems against the lefty too.

Marterer had some decent performances on the grass twelve months ago and a strong serve can give him the chance to go on the attack on the return of serve. His opponent allowed Denis Kudla to create 19 break point opportunities in the final Qualifying Round here in Stuttgart and Golovic is likely to be put under some pressure from Marterer who had a decent 20% break percentage on the grass in 2017.

That was from a relatively small sample but Marterer will have the crowd support behind him which can see him come through this match.

He is also 3-0 against Golovic in previous matches including at the US Open Qualifiers last August and I think he can improve that record with a win on Wednesday.


Benoit Paire v Taylor Fritz: This is a virtual pick 'em in the First Round in Stuttgart but I am going to give the edge to the Frenchman to reverse his loss to Taylor Fritz from the Indian Wells Masters in 2017.

One concern is that this is the first match on the grass for Benoit Paire in 2018 compared with Taylor Fritz who won three matches in Surbiton last week as he came through the Qualifiers there. The American has a strong serve which has to be respected, but Fritz has yet to get to grips with the returning aspect on the grass courts and that could be an issue in this match against Paire.

It is Paire who has the stronger returning numbers on the grass courts, but he hadn't had a lot of success on the surface prior to 2017. Last season was a different story though as Paire produced a combined 107% hold/break percentage on the grass and he should have the edge over Fritz.

Fritz is now just 7-11 on the grass courts in his young career and I like Paire even if he can be a tough player to trust on any given day to perform at his best.

In this one Paire should be good enough to at least create the majority of the break point opportunities and I like him to win this match at a tournament where he reached the Semi Final last year.


Mischa Zverev + 4.5 games v Roger Federer: He's back.

Roger Federer skipped the clay court season to make sure he is at peak fitness for the Wimbledon and US Open tournaments where the Swiss superstar believes he can win and add to his tally of Grand Slam titles. There are a huge number of points for Federer to defend in the coming weeks, but he looks the favourite for another title at Wimbledon next month.

However it can't be ignored that Federer made a slow start to the grass court season in 2017 when he was beaten in the Second Round in Stuttgart which was his first match on the surface.

I don't think that happens here against Mischa Zverev, but the German is very effective on the grass courts with a strong serve and the ability to put balls away at the net. Not many would have forgotten the double bagel Federer handed out against Zverev in Halle a few years ago, but last year they played each other twice on the grass courts and both were very competitive matches.

If Federer is needing a little time to find his best form after the long lay off from the courts then someone like Zverev can make it very tough for him. The lack of rhythm you get against a player who will serve-volley can be difficult for a player with little court time to get very comfortable and Federer could be pushed here.

Ultimately I think Zverev's return game won't be good enough to earn the win, but he can give Federer something to think about. It should be a fun match for the fans to watch and I will back the veteran to serve well enough to get within the number in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Yuichi Sugita @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Maximilian Marterer - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Benoit Paire @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Irina Falconi + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-2, + 5.66 Units (14 Units Staked, + 40.43% Yield)