Tennis Picks 2018 (June 11th)

The Tennis Tour is not one that waits around too long before the next tournaments are ready to go and this week we have the change in surface.

Congratulations have to be given to both Simona Halep and Rafael Nadal for winning the French Open titles this past weekend, but the majority of the Tour will have turned their attention to the grass courts and the move from the clay courts.

The initial move can be difficult for some players who simply don't enjoying playing on the green stuff as some of the other surfaces, but it is all preparation for the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon which begins in less than a month from now.

For Tennis fans it is also a big week as Roger Federer returns to the court having skipped the clay court season to give him the best chance to produce the tennis needed to win Wimbledon and/or the US Open. You can't blame Federer for the decisions he takes considering he won in SW19 last season and he may be the favourite to add to the number of Grand Slam titles he owns as he bids to keep Rafael Nadal from taking over with the most Grand Slam wins in the men's game.

Federer will be back on the courts in Stuttgart later this week and that is one of four events being played. Hertogenbosch will offer a men's and women's event while Nottingham hosts another WTA event in a busy week on the Tour during the relatively short grass court swing.


The French Open proved to be a difficult tournament for the Tennis Picks and has dented the season totals, but I am looking to get this week going with a positive beginning. The change in surface is something to keep in mind with some players simply not comfortable on the grass, while others will be grateful to get off the clay and onto a more productive surface for themselves.

I have got the break down from the four ATP matches I am selecting and adding three WTA Picks to the 'MY PICKS' section below.


Yuichi Sugita - 2.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: The clay court season could not have ended quick enough for Yuichi Sugita who simply has not performed consistently on that surface throughout his career. The move to the grass courts should be something he is very comfortable with and I expect Sugita to get the better of Nikoloz Basilashvili when they play in Hertogenbosch.

Over the last couple of years Sugita has shown some real improvement on the grass courts with decent numbers behind his serve and on his return which should give him the edge in a match like this one.

In each of the last two seasons Sugita has had a combined hold/break percentage of 107% and that is significantly better than Basilashvili which means I favour the Seeded player to come through this First Round match.

In 2016 Basilashvili 87% combined hold/break percentage and in 2017 he improved that slightly to 91% but that is still some way short of the Sugita numbers. With those numbers it won't be a big surprise that Basilashvili is 1-6 on the grass courts compared with Sugita who is 17-7 and I am looking for Sugita to come out more comfortable on this surface.

You can't always tell how someone will react to a first match on a new surface which is something to consider when making your plays on Monday in the first of the grass court matches. However I do think Sugita is the better player on the surface and I think he would have been looking forward to the move away from the clay courts more than Basilashvili and I expect Sugita is going to work his way to a win and a cover of the number in this match in Hertogenbosch.


Aljaz Bedene-Marius Copil over 23.5 games: This is a very interesting match up on the grass courts with both Aljaz Bedene and Marius Copil very capable of producing some of their best tennis on the grass courts.

I did favour Copil to win but the poor head to head with Bedene and the very similar numbers does put a dampener on backing the underdog in this one.

What looks to be a little more certain is that both Bedene and Copil should be very strong behind the serve and it would not surprise me if we get to see a number of holds of serve which could mean at least a couple of tie-breakers are needed to separate the two players.

The three previous matches between these players have all come on the clay courts and the last one in Budapest a couple of months ago was a close run thing, but mentally it should mean Bedene is in a good place. Bedene had a combined hold/break percentage of 101% on the grass courts last season and that is narrowly below Copil's 105% although last year was considerably better for Bedene than in 2016.

What has stayed steady for Bedene is the strong hold percentage and he is not exactly facing a great returning opponent on the grass. On the other hand Copil's hold percentage has been even stronger and he should be able to rattle through some games very quickly which suggests this will be a tight match even if there is a winner in straight sets.

The total games are slightly high, but there is every chance these two players need a deciding set to determine the winner and I think backing at least twenty-four games to be played looks the call.


Florian Mayer - 2.5 games v Yannick Maden: 2018 has not been a good year for Florian Mayer and I do wonder if the veteran is finally on an irreversible slide in his career. The grass courts may give Mayer a chance to at least change the perception of a player who has lost 14 of 19 matches played in 2018 and this is a surface on which Mayer is very comfortable.

His opponent has been given a Wild Card into the draw in Stuttgart and I expect Mayer is more familiar with Yannick Maden than many tennis fans will be.

Maden has some decent numbers compared with Mayer in 2018 but the majority of his time is spent off the main Tour as he makes a living. His limited time on the grass courts means this is just the fifth match Maden would have played on the surface and he is 2-2 in the previous for matches with none of those coming against opponents inside the top 150 of the World Rankings.

You can't really read too much into such a small sample, but over the years Mayer has produced some of his best results on the grass courts. It was only two years ago Mayer was winning one of the biggest titles of his career in Halle and having a combined hold/break percentage of 103% on the grass in 2017 is respectable enough considering he has been playing at a higher level than Maden.

Last season was some of the better returning Mayer has put together on the grass and the feeling is that he can have some joy against Maden who held at 73% on the grass in 2017 in the four matches played. That is not exactly stellar numbers considering the opponents they came against and I think Florian Mayer can put some wins up with the right draws over the next five weeks.

I will look for the veteran to make his experience count and help him win and cover the number in this First Round match in Stuttgart.


Mischa Zverev - 1.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: This has all the makings of a really good grass court match between Mischa Zverev and Mikhail Youzhny but I have to favour the home player to have the edge.

You can't take nothing away from Youzhny who is still a very effective grass court player and especially not when he has put a couple of wins on the Qualifiers under his belt ahead of this First Round match. The Russian was surprisingly beaten in the First Round in the Surbiton Challenger last week, but Youzhny's numbers on the grass courts in recent seasons suggest he hasn't lost a major step on the surface when playing against opponents outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings.

However it has to be said that he is facing an opponent whose games is tailor made for the grass courts and Zverev has shown his comfort on the surface with some very strong numbers over the last couple of years.

Even the loss last week was a close one for Youzhny but now he faces an opponent in Zverev who will look to put some pressure on him by getting to the net and forcing the Russian to hit his passing shots. The old school pressure Zverev brings can disrupt any opponent when at his best and last year he found his best tennis on the grass courts with an 110% hold/break percentage.

Youzhny's numbers are far from sloppy in each of the last three seasons on the grass, but Zverev is capable of using the home support and scoreboard pressure behind his own serve to edge out his opponent. I do like Youzhny on the grass courts, but he has slipped a little more than Zverev and I expect the latter to move into the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Yuichi Sugita - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene-Marius Copil Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Florian Mayer - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jana Fett @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: - 4.04 Units (825 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)