Tennis Picks 2018 (June 26th)

It was another winning day on the grass for the Tennis Picks on Monday, but it would have been a lot better if I had not backed the Pliskova sisters with both failing to cover.

At least Karolina earned her place in the Third Round in Eastbourne on the same day twin sister Kristyna was being beaten by a local hope.

The other three picks made on Monday all came back as winners to add to the Sunday selection. Tuesday looks a lot busier with a number of matches scheduled to be played in Eastbourne and I have a number of selections from the tournament there.

The Wimbledon Qualifiers have also begun which means we are on the fast track to the third Grand Slam of the season beginning with the opening day in six days time. I am hoping I will be able to get the Outright Picks from that tournament ready and posted by Sunday morning and I will then have a separate thread for the Day 1 Picks ready to go that evening.

It is a busy week with the World Cup Second Round also beginning on Saturday which means I want the whole First Round selections ready to go by Monday afternoon before what is likely to be England's first Knock Out tie. Hopefully the layers get their markets ready within twenty-four hours of the draws being made at the end of the week.

That is for another day though and for now let's go back to the Tennis to be played on Tuesday and the Tennis Picks which can be found below.

I have added the ATP Picks with full analysis, but the WTA selections have gone straight into the 'MY PICKS' section below.


Daniil Medvedev v Steve Johnson: This has all of the makings of a classic grass court match at the ATP Eastbourne event when Daniil Medvedev and Steve Johnson meet on Tuesday. You have to imagine both players are looking forward to this time of the season with the points they could potentially earn, but neither has really put any kind of winning run together which will concern them.

The losses they have suffered to the likes of Fernando Verdasco, Jeremy Chardy and Benoit Paire are not bad ones, but I think both Medvedev and Johnson are looking to gain some confidence with a solid run in Eastbourne.

I think both players will feel they can have a big impact at Wimbledon with the right draw, but I am leaning towards Medvedev in picking up the win here to move into the Second Round.

The young Russian has been serving well on the grass courts, but he has perhaps not been as strong returning as he has shown in the last couple of years on this surface. That is going to be an issue against someone like Steve Johnson whose serve can be a huge weapon for him, but Johnson's last thirteen months on the grass have not been as strong for him as he would have liked.

In that time Johnson is holding at right around 75%, but that is someway short of what he would expect. In 2018 Medvedev is holding at a much better rate of 86% through his four matches and Johnson is not exactly the best returner on the Tour which should mean Medvedev has the edge in the match.

Medvedev has won all three matches between these players and he has not really been threatened on the serve that consistently. He has also found a way to get into the Johnson service games and I like the youngster to win this match in what has been priced up as a pick 'em contest.


Mischa Zverev - 3.5 games v Nicolas Jarry: A 1-2 record on the grass courts in 2018 might not highlight how much Mischa Zverev loves playing on this surface, but he has not been blessed with kind draws. That is not the case in Eastbourne where Zverev begins his campaign against clay court specialist Nicolas Jarry on Tuesday.

This has been a big season for Jarry and that should inspire some confidence to take into matches for the last six months of 2018. However the move onto the grass courts may be the most difficult for Jarry who has never won a match on this surface.

Last season Jarry struggled when it came to holding serve and I think that will give Mischa Zverev a chance to win this match without too many real issues. My only concern for the German is that he is not always the most effective returner and the Jarry first serve is a big enough shot to at least produce some cheap points on an unfamiliar surface to him.

Zverev's returning numbers are pretty poor, but he may have more joy than usual in this match if Jarry continues to have problems. There is also the additional pressure Zverev can put on Jarry by slicing the ball down low and also getting up to the net and making his opponent hit a number of passing shots to try and win the match.

He will also be in a position to put some scoreboard pressure on Jarry with Zverev's serve a strong factor in any win the German puts together. Zverev has had some strong holding numbers throughout his career on the grass courts and that is where he begins to build his pressure on opponents who will know that one break of serve could be all it takes to cost them a set.

Credit also where it is due and that is to say that Zverev hasn't returned too badly on the grass courts in 2016 and 2017 with similar number of points won against the serve. However last year he started to add a few more breaks to the percentage of points won and I think his 2018 numbers have only been affected by taking on big serving players like Roger Federer and Karen Khachanov who can be very tough to break.

Someone like Jarry is perhaps not as capable as those players, especially not on the grass courts and I think Zverev can be backed to earn at least a couple of breaks of serve in this match which may be enough to cover this number.


Daniel Brands v Cameron Norrie: One of these players is a Qualifier and one has been given a Wild Card and the layers are finding it a little difficult to separate Daniel Brands and Cameron Norrie in this First Round match in Eastbourne.

I am a little surprised by that and I do think Daniel Brands deserves his spot as the favourite while he is at a price that looks to be worth backing.

Injury and a loss of form has seen Brands drop outside of the top 300 of the World Rankings, but he may be ready to make a move upwards having produced some solid results on the grass courts over the last month. This should be a surface that suits the German, although it has been tough for him in recent years and that is perhaps why the layers have some doubts about him.

In 2018 Brands has been serving very well on the grass courts and a win over Jack Sock during the Qualifiers here in Eastbourne would have given him a lot of confidence. The one defeat Brands has suffered came at the hands of Jeremy Chardy who has been in great form since moving onto the grass courts and Brands has some strong numbers to show for his 6-1 record.

There is room for improvement for Brands when it comes to the return of serve, but he may have more joy against Cameron Norrie who has lost both matches on the grass in 2018. It is clear that Norrie is not completely at ease on the grass and his 68% hold percentage is not effective enough on a surface where one or two breaks of serve can cost you the match.

That poor serving will give Brands a chance to improve on his return of serve, especially if he keeps serving as well as he has been over the last month. He has to make sure he is aware of the fact he is playing a left handed opponent, but Brands will believe he can keep Norrie under pressure considering how poorly the British player has returned.

It will be a close match, but I like Brands here to find a way to the win.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniel Brands @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Mihaela Buzarnescu @ 1.90 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-2, + 3.46 Units (12 Units Staked, + 28.83% Yield)