Tennis Picks 2018 (June 25th)

The build towards the third Grand Slam of the Tennis season continues this week with a big event in Eastbourne the highlight of the week before Wimbledon begins in seven days time.

This week the Qualifiers for Wimbledon will take place over the few days before the draw for the tournament is made on Friday, but the main attention will be on Eastbourne where a men's and women's event take place.

On Sunday I got this week off to a positive start after two strong weeks on the grass courts have helped put the season in a strong position. Keeping the momentum going through to Wimbledon would be the perfect way to head into that Slam where the Tennis Picks come thick and fast and hopefully I can round of June with some more positive results.

The winning selection came from the WTA event being played in Eastbourne and I am sticking to that tournament for my Tennis Picks on Monday too.


Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Sachia Vickery: This is a pretty big number when you think of the inconsistent performances Aryna Sabalenka has produced on the grass courts, but I think she will beat Lucky Loser Sachia Vickery in the First Round in Eastbourne,

Playing on the grass courts is a tough learning curve for some players but Sabalenka has shown enough to think she is good enough to win a match like this one.

The serve is an effective weapon for her on this surface and Sabalenka has been good enough to beat the kind of players that tend to operate at the same level as Vickery. The 2-2 record on the grass courts in 2018 means Sabalenka may be lacking some confidence, but the general level she has been playing at is at least one step above Vickery's and I do think she can serve herself into a position to win this match with some comfort.

Her opponent is in as a Lucky Loser and that can make Vickery dangerous, but she has to find better consistency at this level. While her overall numbers have not been too bad, Vickery has struggled when going up against players in the top 100 of the World Ranking.

Vickery's serve has been a real weakness in those matches and I think that could be a problem for her in this match even if she is facing an opponent in Sabalenka who has not really returned as well as she would have liked on the grass. I am expecting better from Sabalenka in this match though and there has been an improvement on the percentage of return points won compared with 2017 on the grass.

This is a tough number as I have mentioned, but Sabalenka should be able to earn a break more in each set of a straights win.


Mihaela Buzarnescu - 3.5 games v Shuai Peng: The lack of grass court experience looked like it could be a problem for Mihaela Buzarnescu at this time of the season after a stunning rise up the World Rankings. However there have been no excuses made by Buzarnescu about inexperience and she has had a good month on the grass already.

Losses to Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova are not bad ones for Buzarnescu who has produced a 5-2 record on the grass after a good showing at the French Open. She upset Elina Svitolina in Paris and has done the same on the grass and you have to think confidence is very high.

That could partly be down to what have been some very strong numbers on the grass courts over the last month. The Buzarnescu serve has been very effective and that has allowed her to free up on the return of serve where she has produced some very good totals in the last month.

Buzarnescu will have to be at her best to beat Shuai Peng who is very comfortable on the grass courts, but who is making her first appearance on the grass in 2018. That may have had something to do with the injury Peng was carrying at the French Open and if she is less than 100% healthy for this match it is going to be a very difficult one to win.

In recent years Peng has been consistent on the grass courts and she is someone who has a decent serve and strong returning. I absolutely have to have respect for that, but Buzarnescu has been playing very well and looks to be healthier than Peng going into the First Round match.

That is enough for me to favour an in-form Buzarnescu to win this match and find the cover of a big number when they meet in Eastbourne.


Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: On first glance you would say this is a big number considering how talented Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is, but the grass courts have not been her favourite surface in recent years.

That might be a surprising statement when thinking back to 2016 and noting Pavlyuchenkova reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon. However that was a run filled with surprising wins for the Russian and the numbers have backed up the feeling that Pavlyuchenkova is not as convincing on the grass courts as she is on other surfaces.

The serve is a big weapon for Pavlyuchenkova on the grass and she returns better than you may expect considering the general poor record on the surface. That bodes well for her, but the match up with Karolina Pliskova is not one she has enjoyed and that may be the case again on Monday.

It is Pliskova who has won all five matches between these players and she has also won all ten sets competed in those matches. In only one of those matches has Pavlyuchenkova won more than six games against Pliskova and even in the exception she only reached seven games as she has struggled to cope with the big serve possesses by Pliskova.

Pliskova is the defending Champion in Eastbourne and she has performed well at this tournament and on the grass as a whole in recent years. The loss to Magdalena Rybarikova last week in Birmingham would have been an irritation, but Rybarikova is a solid enough player on the grass courts to be a defeat that should not overly concern Pliskova.

I would expect the Pliskova serve to be much more effective in this match and she has really begun to get her teeth into the return of serve on the grass in the last couple of years. With the strong head to head against Pavlyuchenkova I think Pliskova can be backed to continue her dominance of this rivalry and I believe she will be good enough to cover the big looking number at an appealing price.


Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 games v Camila Giorgi: You can't deny the kind of talent Camila Giorgi possesses, but I do wonder if she is willing to put in the kind of work you need to do day to day to really fulfil the potential she has. In my opinion she should be much higher up the World Rankings as she possesses a powerful game, but inconsistent results continue to prevent her really making a big impact on the WTA Tour.

The Italian is a dangerous opponent though and she has regularly raised her game when facing some of the biggest names on the Tour and she can do that on some of the biggest courts in the world. That should mean Giorgi is not overawed at all by the occasion of taking on Caroline Wozniacki who has won one of the two Grand Slams that have been completed this season.

Giorgi holds two wins over Wozniacki too and she is facing a player who has yet to have a competitive match on the grass courts. She has produced some solid numbers on the grass courts over the last couple of years which makes her a player that has to be respected, but even with all that in mind I am leaning towards Caroline Wozniacki winning this match and covering the number.

The former World Number 1 may have lost a couple of matches to Giorgi, but she has won two matches against her and both of those have come on the grass courts. Both wins came in pretty dominant fashion for Wozniacki and she should also not be too concerned about playing her first grass court match here in Eastbourne as that has been the norm of her schedule in recent years.

Wozniacki has a very strong record in Eastbourne and was a Runner Up here in 2017 while her overall numbers on the grass courts are pretty good. Unsurprisingly Wozniacki has some strong return numbers on this surface like she does on many others, and what can sometimes be a limited serve is effective enough too which helps Wozniacki rack up the wins on this surface.

The only concern is Wozniacki makes a slow start in her first match back on the grass and Giorgi is able to take advantage and pull clear. However I think Wozniacki will weather the Italian storm and then take control of this match and I like her returning ability to be the difference maker at an event she has regularly enjoyed in recent years.


Kristyna Pliskova - 4.5 games v Harriet Dart: I am backing Kristyna's twin sister Karolina to win and cover a big number in Eastbourne on Monday and I think Kristyna will be able to do the same.

There is no doubt that Kristyna Pliskova has not been able to match the kind of success Karolina has had on the Tour, but she has a big serve and that is a strong weapon on the grass courts. Her service numbers have made good reading, but it is up to Pliskova to show a little better when it comes to the return of serve if she is going to have deep runs on this surface.

While I expect the return game to be the reason this Pliskova sister is not going to be a big threat at the tournaments ahead, I do think she is good enough to give Harriet Dart some real problems.

The young British player is yet to really have a consistent time on the Tour and she is perhaps a little fortunate to have been given a Wild Car into the main draw in Eastbourne. Dart has not played a lot of grass court tennis this summer and she is someone who has struggled with the return of serve which is not going to be improved when facing someone like Pliskova.

Dart's own serve should not be one that puts Pliskova under enough pressure and I think it will be one of the better returning days from the Czech player. While a big number when you think of the limited return game of Pliskova, I think the match up should be a good one for her and I will back her to cover here.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mihaela Buzarnescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kristyna Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.82 Units (2 Units Staked, + 91% Yield)