Tennis Picks 2018 (June 22nd)

The Quarter Finals are set to be played on Friday across the various tournaments that have been in action this week.

It the last of the big matches before Wimbledon begins, although there is a strong looking WTA field in Eastbourne next week. While those preparations are completed on the south coast, the majority of players will begin to think about the third Grand Slam of the 2018 season.

I'm still not convinced of the short turnaround between the French Open and Wimbledon, but the Tennis calendar is such that at least we have an extra week between those events compared to the situation a few years ago. Personally I would love to see more time between these two Slams and perhaps the change in the Davis Cup format which looks to be coming in will help as that is two weeks between the Australian Open and French Open which could be removed on the calendar which had traditionally been held for the Davis Cup.

We may then have the chance to see a slightly longer grass court season and better preparation time for the likes of Simona Halep and Rafael Nadal with the two French Open Champions both going straight into Wimbledon without taking in a grass court event.


So far it has been another positive week for the Tennis Picks as the bounce back from a disappointing French Open continues. Another winning day on Thursday has added to the solid numbers already and I am hoping to round off the week with a good three days as these events come to a close.

I've put together the analysis for the ATP Quarter Final matches, but I will add the Picks from the two WTA Tournaments to the 'MY PICKS' section below.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Sam Querrey: The grass courts at Queens Club have proven to be some of the quicker ones on the Tour, but that has not stopped either Marin Cilic or Sam Querrey from finding a way to break big serves they have faced.

Both will be feeling confident going into this Quarter Final as former winners of this tournament, although it has to be said that it is Cilic who has had the more sustained success on the grass courts in recent years.

The Croatian has continued that success with a really good tournament and Cilic has found a way to create plenty of break points against decent servers on the grass Fernando Verdasco and Gilles Muller. His serve has been a huge weapon with just a single break going against him and Cilic is a combined 116% when it comes to the hold/break percentage in his two matches which are some impressive numbers.

Since 2016 it has been the norm for Cilic to prove to be a dominant server and someone who will create chances to break serve and that will see him put some pressure on Querrey.

Sam Querrey's numbers have been even more impressive than Cilic's so far on the grass on a very small sample, but you can't ignore some of the issues he had against Stan Wawrinka. The American needed to save set points at 5-4 down in the first set and managed to save twelve out of thirteen break points against an opponent who is not playing at the level that Cilic is.

Beating Gilles Muller should give Cilic the patience to wait for his chances to come against another big server although Querrey is a very good grass court player thanks to the serve he possesses. However Cilic has won all five previous matches against Querrey and four of those have come on the grass courts and he was dominating the American at Wimbledon last year with only one sloppy game making it a slightly tougher day in the office than it may have been.

Cilic won 41% of the return points in that Semi Final win at Wimbledon against Querrey and he has been locked in on the return so far. At key moments I think Cilic will exert enough pressure from the return to work his way to around three breaks in this match and that should be good enough to cover this spread.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: If Novak Djokovic has been lacking some confidence since returning to the ATP Tour the two performances this week will have given him some belief that he can find his best tennis again. After suggesting he would miss the whole grass court season in the wake of his defeat at Roland Garros, Djokovic has dominated John Millman and Grigor Dimitrov.

He wouldn't be overly concerned by what Adrian Mannarino produced in his win over Julien Benneteau in the Second Round either with the Frenchman perhaps fortunate to win his two matches so far.

It doesn't matter how you have performed to get to the Quarter Final but what you can do on the day, although it has to be said that Mannarino will have to be a lot better to compete against Novak Djokovic. Mannarino has not held serve as convincingly as you would hope on the grass courts, but the bigger issue has been a return game which has slipped from the standards he has usually produced on the grass.

It is only a small sample in 2018 to suggest it is a permanent decline, but Mannarino has been on the Tour a long time and I do think it will be an issue against Novak Djokovic who has yet to be broken at Queens. He has only faced the one break point in two matches and that came when leading Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 5-1 and I think Djokovic will keep the pressure on Mannarino in this match.

Djokovic has been very, very good when it comes to the return of serve so far this week and it was that aspect of his game which helped take him to the World Number 1 position and becoming the dominant player on the ATP Tour for a number of years. The Serb has broken in 50% of his return games in his two matches here at Queens and that is not good news for Mannarino who is holding at under 80% on the grass in the last thirteen months.

These two players met at Wimbledon last year when Djokovic came through with a comfortable straight sets win despite having some wrist issues which would later see him withdraw from the tournament and the rest of the tennis season. They have met two years in a row at Wimbledon and Djokovic has been strong on serve and dictated things against the Mannarino serve.

That kind of situation could unfold again when they meet for the third year in a row on the grass courts and I will back Novak Djokovic to win by a comfortable margin.


Jeremy Chardy - 1.5 games v Francis Tiafoe: This has been a very good month of June for Jeremy Chardy who has produced some of his very best tennis on the grass courts to put together an 11-1 record. He has won a title in Surbiton and backed that up with a run to the Final in Hertogenbosch before heading to London and putting another two wins into the books at Queens Club.

I do wonder when we will see some fatigue affect the play of Chardy, but he seems to be happy riding on the momentum he has picked up. Strong wins over Tim Smyczek and Daniil Medvedev have kept that going and it is a far cry from twelve months ago when Chardy was really struggling on the grass.

His serve really was a problem for him in 2017, but Chardy is back to a very high percentage of holds which does put some pressure on his opponents.

On Friday it is Francis Tiafoe who has a go at cracking the strong run Chardy has been on, but the American is yet to really convince on this surface. Both wins this week could easily have gone the other way if a few big points had swung to his opponents, but Tiafoe should at least feel he can be competitive on this surface.

Tiafoe has held serve at a high rate in his two grass court matches in 2018 which is a big improvement on 2018 but like opponent Chardy there have been some problems when it comes to the return of serve. Neither player has been very strong on the return of serve on the grass courts where the reaction time is simply not great news for those limited returners on the Tour.

Out of the two players you have to give Chardy the edge considering the numbers he has produced. While Chardy has the lower break percentage in 2018 on this surface, he has won a higher percentage of points against the serve and behind serve and I think the confidence will help Chardy keep that going.

Chardy's return numbers have been stronger this week than they have been throughout the grass court season so far and I think that has to be factored in too. While the layers think it will be close as they factor in the potential fatigue Chardy is feeling, I think the day off on Thursday was a blessing for the Frenchman and he can win this match and cover the spread being set by the layers.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Magdalena Rybarikova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 15-9, + 8.50 Units (48 Units Staked, + 17.71% Yield)