Tennis Picks 2018 (June 21st)

The Tennis tournaments this week are a little easier to prepare in the middle of the week as far as Tennis Picks are concerned with the Second Round split over two days.

That usually means the markets are out considerably earlier than they would be normally and I have got my Picks prepared before the results from the Wednesday Picks are completed.


Lesia Tsurenko + 2.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: I guess you would have to make Daria Kasatakina favourite for this match because of her overall performances this season, but I have to say the prices don't factor in the poorer record she has on the grass.

Her win in the First Round will have given Kasatkina some confidence, but this is clearly still a learning curve for her and I do think someone like Lesia Tsurenko is comfortable enough on the surface to give the young Russian something to think about.

My concern with backing a small underdog on the WTA Tour is that you can see sets run away from them and then even a deciding set loss is not enough to get within the number. Someone who returns as well as Kasatkina makes me a little more wary when it comes to this pick, but I think Tsurenko should be able to have some joy on the return herself to keep this one close.

I also believe Tsurenko has every chance to win this match outright which makes backing her on the handicap a little more comfortable for me. Tsurenko is a decent grass court player without being a world beater on the surface and I do think she will be able to have her moments in this one which makes the underdog more appealing.

Having the safety of the games behind me when I believe she is capable of winning the match outright helps me get behind Tsurenko in this one as Kasatkina continues to prove to herself that she can play on this surface.


Julien Benneteau v Adrian Mannarino: This is expected to the final season on the Tour as a Singles player for Julien Benneteau but he is making the best of the situation with a strong run here at Queens Club. The Frenchman came through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw and Benneteau had a strong win over Tomas Berdych which will give him confidence as he gets set to face compatriot Adrian Mannarino in the Second Round.

Benneteau has always enjoyed playing on the grass and he has been in good form so far this week although I do wonder if he is playing above the level expected.

In 2017 Benneteau really struggled when it came to holding his serve, but he has been strong on that front in the three matches played to get into the main draw at Queens. However where Benneteau continues to pose a threat is off the return of serve and he will feel he can get the better of Adrian Mannarino despite the grass court pedigree the latter has displayed.

In recent seasons Mannarino has had some strong hold/break percentages on the grass courts although he has had a mixed start to 2018. A loss to Jeremy Chardy and a win over Daniel Evans is not bad form although I do worry about the head to head with the feeling it matters a lot when it comes to matches between French players.

Both players could find themselves under pressure when it comes to the service games and I would not be surprised if we see a number of breaks of serve even in the faster conditions in this part of West London. However I think it is Julien Benneteau playing the slightly better tennis at the moment and the head to head with Mannarino may be enough to make the difference at key moments of the match.

There will be some twists and turns along the way, but I like Julien Benneteau in what is almost a pick 'em contest.


Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: There are signs that Novak Djokovic is getting somewhere near to his best, but I think there is still some way to go for the former World Number 1 to really have the belief in his own game. You got a sense of that when going out of the French Open in disappointing circumstances and immediately questioning whether he will play at Wimbledon in July.

Taking a Wild Card into Queens is a good sign for Djokovic, but in reality he is still very much searching to get comfortable on the court. His numbers have been decent enough throughout 2018, but the aura around him has gone and that means players are less likely to capitulate at his feet if they fall behind in a set.

Novak Djokovic was a dominant winner in the First Round here over John Millman, but the level of competition goes up drastically when going up against Grigor Dimitrov in the Second Round. Dimitrov is a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist and very comfortable on the grass courts, although I am not sure the Bulgarian is feeling his best tennis right now.

Playing someone like Djokovic on this surface should get the adrenaline pumping for Dimitrov but he was struggling for his best in the First Round and really needs to step up his play. An area of concern for Dimitrov fans is the decline in the service numbers on the grass courts in four consecutive years and now coming up a returner as strong as Novak Djokovic can be is going to put the higher Ranked player under some pressure.

Dimitrov should enjoy some success on the return of serve though, even if he is not the best returner on the Tour. That is mainly down to Djokovic still not having full faith in that shot after the wrist issues of twelve months ago, but generally the Serb has been a strong server on the grass courts and even his 80% hold percentage in 2018 is not to be sniffed at.

I think Djokovic has the edge in this match and the head to head only adds to that. While I expect the former World Number 1 to go through some challenging moments in the match, I think Djokovic will have the majority of the break point chances and I will look for Djokovic to win and cover in this big Second Round match.


Matthew Ebden-Philipp Kohlschreiber over 22.5 games: Two players who are very comfortable on the grass courts will meet in the Second Round in Halle and it has all the makings of a match that may need to go the distance to settle it. Philipp Kohlschreiber has not been putting the wins together he would have liked and he won't have nearly the same kind of confidence as Matthew Ebden.

Ebden has reached back to back Semi Finals on the grass courts and that has earned him a Special Entry into the main draw in Halle. He has deserved that, but it also has to be noted that very rarely has Ebden played someone with the quality that Kohlschreiber brings to the court, while he will also have to deal with the spectators who will want the home player to win.

Where Ebden can be confident is the way he has been serving and the 91% hold rate from eleven matches played on the grass over the last couple of weeks has to be respected. The opposition may not have been the best in that run, but Ebden will believe in his serve and he is facing an opponent here who is not exactly the greatest returner on this surface.

You can see that from Kohlschreiber's numbers on the return of serve, but he himself is possessed with a solid serve on the grass courts and I think it will be a challenge for Ebden facing it. Last week Ebden did break the Gilles Muller serve at will on the grass which is a huge achievement, but Kohlschreiber may have a little more all around game which can help him maintain his own strong numbers on the serve.

This has the feeling of a match where one or two breaks of serve will decide it but I won't be surprised to see at least one tie-breaker in this one. With the chances of this one going into a deciding set too I do think the total games can be surpassed although a straight sets win could be a concern if one of these players is not serving as well as expected.

I did also think Matthew Ebden is a big price to win the match considering how well he has been playing and especially returning on the grass courts, but it should be a close match and I will look at the total games line.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Benoit Paire: Whenever you see a spread of this size you have to be a little careful and that is especially so on the grass courts where breaks of serve are not obtained easily.

For all the obvious greatness of Roger Federer, who won yet another grass court title last week in Stuttgart, sometimes you can question the return of serve and whether it will be effective enough to cover this kind of number. In his five wins on grass Federer has broken at just 18% so far this season and his 2017 number of 43.5% is clearly an out-marker compared to his general numbers which have been much more similar to where he is this season.

It will be interesting to see how he copes against Benoit Paire who has had some solid grass court results over the last thirteen months compared to his general feel on this surface. His hold percentage has been markedly improved and that has allowed Paire to free himself up when it comes to the return of serve and the main reason the wins have been put together on this surface.

In usual circumstances I would not hesitate to move on from this match, but Paire has had some issues with Federer in their previous meetings and rarely been competitive. That has to be in his head against an opponent who is the best grass court player in the world at this time and I do think it will give Federer a chance to produce the break points needed to cover this number.

The head to head is 5-0 in favour of Federer and in eleven sets played the Swiss player has only given up four or more games three times. He hasn't dominated Paire completely on the numbers, but Federer fashions his break points and tends to take them against this opponent which may have as much to do with the Frenchman's emotional state at those pressurised moments which can be questioned.

That may be the case when they play in Halle and I think Federer has been serving well enough to have three more breaks of serve than Paire which should be good enough to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Lesia Tsurenko + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Julien Benneteau @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden-Philipp Kohlschreiber Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-7, + 7.58 Units (38 Units Staked, + 19.95% Yield)