World Cup 2018 Group Picks (June 25-28)

The football at the World Cup may not have always been the most high quality, but there has been plenty of attacking in play and a lot of intriguing moments.

Things should begin to heat up now in the final round of Group games which are effectively knock out games for a number of nations, while others are more comfortable and preparing for the Second Round which begins this weekend.

We have already seen a number of nations bid farewell to Russia and who will be completing their final scheduled fixtures this week before boarding on a flight to get some well earned rest before the European Football season recommences in around six to seven weeks time. Some of the fans will be missed, most notably the Peruvians, while another couple of well backed South American nations are on the brink of elimination with 'must win' games coming up this week for Argentina and Colombia.

It does look like a tournament that could produce some top games in the Second Round with the potential to see France vs Argentina, Spain vs Uruguay and Brazil vs Germany all coming up depending on how results go this week. That is big news for the neutrals but perhaps less exciting for anyone who has backed the five favourites this week knowing there is a real chance for up to three exiting before the Quarter Final.

Perhaps this really is the year for a big priced winner at the World Cup like we have seen in the European Championship in recent years. Belgium, Mexico and Croatia have been stand out teams in the Group so far and all won't be too displeased with the potential route to the Semi Final and from there who knows that could happen.

And then there is England... Two positive results is building the optimism around a young group of players, but winning Group G, which they lead after the 6-1 win over Panama, might actually be a poisoned chalice in the grand scheme of things.


So far this World Cup has been a decent one for the Picks made as you can see below, but I do want more consistency. A missed penalty here and a couple of teams failing to capitalise on situations have let me down, but they have been balanced out by late goals for others which means I have to be satisfied with the results so far.

This week could be more difficult with teams likely looking to rest players in anticipation of the Second Round while some heads may have dropped thanks to early exits. With perhaps a more difficult minefield to negotiate, I would think it is wise to restrict stakes on some matches with bigger games to come later in the tournament.


Monday 25th June
Saudi Arabia v Egypt Pick: This has been a disappointing World Cup for both Saudi Arabia and Egypt who would have been hoping to at least be in contention for a Last 16 spot going into the final round of Group games. Instead both have been eliminated after being beaten in both Group games played so far, although the chance to win a World Cup game has to give the players motivation.

I am not too sure I can back Egypt at odds on when you hear the stories coming out of the camp that Mohamed Salah is considering retirement from the national team after some poor photo ops arranged by his nation.

He is clearly not at 100% either and I do think Egypt will be dealing with more disappointment than Saudi Arabia as I genuinely think they believed they could make the Second Round. That is hard to pick yourself up from and I do think Saudi Arabia are perhaps good enough to capitalise on that.

They were very poor against Russia, but much improved when taking on Uruguay and a similar level of performance to the latter will give Saudi Arabia a chance of at least securing a World Cup point.

Saudi Arabia have lost 4 of their 6 previous matches against Egypt which would be a concern, but their players might have more left emotionally to give to this tournament. Keeping even a half fit Salah quiet won't be easy, but I think Saudi Arabia will at least keep this competitive if they cannot steal a point and I will look to back them on the Asian Handicap.


Uruguay v Russia Pick: In a tournament that has produced plenty of goals and not a single goalless draw it is perhaps a surprise that I will be going to a market like the one I will for the Uruguay and Russia final Group A game.

Both teams have already made it through to the Second Round and at the moment it is Russia who will go in as Group Winners which likely means avoiding playing Spain in the Last 16. Instead they are likely to be paired up with either Portugal or Iran depending on how that game develops on Monday evening and I think that is motivation enough for both of these nations to look to finish top of Group A.

But even then I don't expect Uruguay to suddenly rip up their own script and play an expansive style of football. They knew goal difference could be important last week and that didn't see them produce a lot of urgency in the 1-0 win over Saudi Arabia which saw Uruguay struggle in open play and rely on a set piece goal.

It is also quite difficult to get a real read on Russia whose distance covered numbers are eye opening to say the least, especially when you think of some of the dubious moves made in the past. However they have not played anyone of the calibre of Uruguay who won't make the mistakes at the back that contributed to the heavy losses Saudi Arabia and Egypt suffered against this Russian team.

Instead I think Uruguay will be well organised and I would fancy them having a good chance to stifle the hosts. The actual game will be a good watch depending on how much Uruguay push to try and win it and finish as Group Winners, but I am not convinced they will change their hard to beat tactics and hope for some magic from Luis Suarez or Edinson Cavani.

With that in mind I will have a small interest on these teams combining for less than two goals on Monday with a real chance the game crawls to the finish if they are tied with 20 minutes left to play.


Iran v Portugal Pick: While everything has been settled in Group A which is concluded on Monday afternoon, on Monday evening we have two Group B games with three of the four nations still fighting it out for the top two positions in the Group.

The more important match is being played in Saransk where Iran face Portugal and the winning team will be making it through to the Last 16. It is Portugal who hold the slight edge having drawn with Spain to ensure they are a point clear of Iran going into the final round of Group games, but the European Champions have been far from convincing and were very fortunate to beat Morocco last time out.

An early Cristiano Ronaldo goal gave them something to hold onto, but it was only some terrible finishing from Morocco at key times which prevented them from sharing the spoils which was the least they deserved. I imagine that will have given Fernando Santos more reason to try and batten down the hatches and not offer the same sort of encouragement to Iran.

I expect Iran to also be well organised knowing they only need one goal to make it through to the Last 16 and Carlos Queiroz won't shift too dramatically from the style that has made them hard to beat. Only a correctly awarded offside decision by the VAR prevented Iran from stealing a point against Spain and I imagine we are going to see plenty more valiant defending to try and stay in the game as long as possible.

It does feel like this could be a fixture where both teams stand off one another for the first 60 minutes knowing they don't want to give the other too many chances. Cristiano Ronaldo is the difference maker who is capable of something magic to break down any well organised defensive unit, but I expect Queiroz will have drilled his defenders with tips to deal with a player he is very familiar with.

A lack of goals in the Iran team is a major concern for them, but they will feel they can create something as long as they are in this game and it feels like a tight game could develop. Outside of the 3-3 draw between Portugal and Spain, Group B has not been blessed with a lot of goals as the other three games have all ended 1-0.

Fernando Santos won't be worrying about pleasing the crowd and will set his Portugal team up to be tough to beat and I don't believe we will see a lot of goals. An early goal will change the entire feeling of the match though, which is a concern, but I will back less than two goals to be scored here for a small interest in this important Group B fixture.


Spain v Morocco Pick: It is going to take something a little special to happen to prevent Spain from making it through to the Last 16 of the World Cup Finals, but they still have work to do if they want to win Group B.

On the face of things it does feel like winning this Group is going to offer the better passage in the Knock Out Stage, although that could become a little clearer once Group A is completed on Monday afternoon. Either way I don't think there is much difference between playing Uruguay or the hosts Russia with both tough games to come in the Second Round, while further ahead the Group Winner likely takes on Croatia in the Quarter Final and the Runner Up will be paired with France.

That should mean Fernando Hierro is just concentrating his players on making it out of the Group by beating the already eliminated Morocco.

A late goal in the first game and an early goal in the second game have seen Morocco beaten 1-0 twice by Iran and Portugal, but I don't think anyone can really tell me how that has happened. Morocco have been the better team in both of those fixtures, but poor finishing has let them down.

Scoring a World Cup goal is still not beyond them though as Spain have looked a little vulnerable at the back. We know Portugal managed three in the first game, but Iran had a couple of very threatening moments and I think this Morocco team are better going forward than the Iranians are even if they have yet to show that on the scoreboard. I certainly think Morocco will have some opportunities in this one and they can give Spain something to think about, even if ultimately the Spanish side will find a way to break them down.

I did consider backing both teams to score in this one, but I do still lean towards Spain wanting to win the Group and I think they will have enough quality to do that. It is hard to really trust Morocco to take the chances they create, but I think they could be playing with a 'nothing to lose' attitude which will help the composure so a small interest on Spain winning a match where both teams get on the scoreboard looks worth backing.


Tuesday 26th June
Australia v Peru Pick: The situation has become clear for both Australia and Peru with one barely hanging on to their World Cup status and one already heading home.

It will be sad to see Peru departing from the World Cup after their fans have lit up the tournament, but those fans will say they are just happy to see their nation on the biggest stage again. Surprisingly Peru have yet to give them something to really shout about having lost both games played without scoring a goal, but they have had chances and they can provide some joy by getting after Australia.

For the Australians the 1-1 draw against Denmark might have felt a disappointment as they made much of the running in the second half and had the best opportunities in the game. It has left them three points behind the Danes with one game to play and Australia know they have to beat Peru and hope France can beat Denmark to have any chance of reaching the Last 16 of the World Cup Finals.

It is a tough position to be in knowing a point would suit both Denmark and France in achieving their goals, but Australia cannot think like that and have to make sure they do their job on the day.

This is far from an easy game for Australia who have needed two penalties to score in the World Cup. The attacking play hasn't been bad, but there is a feeling Australia will struggle for a lot of goals from open play, although they do have the bonus of being a big team that could cause Peru problems from set plays if the delivery is right.

Peru will also feel they have something to prove here after limping to a loss to the French team last time out. It was almost like they were unaware how damaging a loss would have been, but they were better against Denmark and I think the creativity they do have will see them get on the scoreboard.

With the situation as it is I can see Australia taking risks to score the goals they need to progress too and I am looking at the teams both getting a goal in this one. I think they go one further than that too and I will back at least three goals shared out between two teams who will feel they have missed opportunities already in the World Cup.


Denmark v France Pick: As soon as the second round robin of Group C games were completed there would have been a rush from the layers to significantly shorten the price of Denmark and France playing out a draw. This is clearly a result that would suit both as France would win the Group and Denmark would be guaranteed a place in the Last 16.

However I am not completely convinced France are going to play ball here.

There is a precedent though which has to worry Australia- France have not won their third Group game at a major international tournament since the 2006 World Cup and that was a game they had to win to make it out of the Group. There has been a single Group Stage exit in the time since at the 2010 World Cup, but more worrying for Australia has to be the fact that France have drawn 0-0 in their last two major tournament Finals in the final Group game and those have come after winning the opening two matches.

Both times the draw suited France who were able to move through as Group Winners, and last time at the Euro 2016 Finals the draw was good against the team who were 2nd in the Group and would have ensured they finished in that position with a point.

That simply doesn't bode well for Australia here and Denmark are organised enough to try and keep France at arm's length before both teams perhaps decide they will conserve energy for another day. I hate to think like that, but I would be foolish to ignore it and the 0-0 draw is where my interest lies.

We have yet to see one at the World Cup in 2018, but I can't ignore how much it will suit both nations in this one. I can't imagine Denmark risk trying to win the Group unless they hear Australia are losing heavily in the other game in the Group, but even then they won't want to risk a loss when a point is all they need.

France may make some changes and will be good to get out of Group C as the Winners and so a very small interest in the goalless draw is warranted for me here. Others may play 'No Goalscorer' which covers an own goal separating these sides, but I will back the goalless draw and see if France are involved in that scoreline in their third Group game for the third major tournament in a row.


Iceland v Croatia Pick: The biggest fear for Argentina had to have been anything but a Nigeria win in the match against Iceland as they chewed over their 0-3 defeat to Croatia from the previous evening.

I very much thought an Iceland win would have seen these two nations accept a draw which would have helped both achieve their goals. Even a draw in the Nigeria-Iceland match would have had me leaning towards a poor day in the office for Croatia which would have seen Iceland secure the result that took them through to the Last 16 behind Croatia.

The Nigeria win on Friday means everything changes for Iceland as they have to get forward and find a way to create chances and score the goals they will need if they want to sneak through to the Last 16. A 1-0 win would be good enough to secure a second place position if Argentina only beat Nigeria by a one goal margin, but even winning this game won't be easy for Iceland.

There is a feeling Croatia could ease off the gas now they are through to the Last 16 and almost certainly going to progress as Group Winners. However they won't want to lose any momentum with the Second Round to come in a few days time and I do think the layers have factored the potential lack of intensity into the price for the Croatia win.

I would have been very much eyeing up Croatia perhaps slipping and not concentrating if a defeat meant Argentina were knocked out of the tournament, but this is a team that think they can go very far in the World Cup. After crushing Argentina I don't think Croatia worry about the fate of the South Americans now and instead are focusing on getting out of the Group with another strong performance.

They could make some changes to the starting eleven, but Croatia should be able to still dictate play and they certainly have the talent to expose Iceland if the latter have to chase the game. At some Iceland will have to take chances and that is when I believe Croatia will be able to find some openings which help them win this game.

Being able to back Croatia on the Asian Handicap at odds against knowing half my stake will be returned if the game ends in a draw looks very big. A team who have looked as good as any in the World Cup will have a few days to rest and get ready for the Last 16 Knock Out tie and I think Croatia will want to go into that with the momentum that comes from winning games.

With Iceland likely having to change their style and getting out of the comfort zone at some point, I like Croatia to win this game and will back them to do so on the Asian Handicap.


Nigeria v Argentina Pick: From the depths of despair on Thursday evening came the optimism of Friday afternoon for Argentina fans who know their nation is still very much alive in the World Cup Finals. After losing to Croatia so many would have expected Argentina to be returning home, but Nigeria's win over Iceland on Friday means a win could be good enough for Argentina to make the Last 16 of the 2018 World Cup.

This nation have not missed out on making the Last 16 since 2002 and Argentina fans would not have had much hope after two disappointing performances. There is still so much talent in the forward areas, but Argentina have not transitioned to the attacking side of their game as they would have liked and it has been easy for teams to mark Lionel Messi and prevent this team ticking.

I expect Jorge Sampaoli to take all the risks in this one and I would not be surprised to see another change of system which will bring in Paulo Dybala to offer more creativity in the final third. That could free up Messi, who is still the key for Argentina, but the defensive problems means Argentina will always be vulnerable in this one.

They are facing a Nigeria team who will be confident after a deserved 2-0 win over Iceland in their last game when they were considerably better than in the 0-2 defeat to Croatia. The pace in the forward positions will make Nigeria a threat if they are willing to take risks by getting at the Argentina defence and this feels like a game that will see plenty of chances at both ends of the field.

The onus is on Argentina to get forward and score goals and that should make this an open game with Nigeria expected to be very dangerous if they get their counter attacks right. The 4-2 friendly win over Argentina in November 2017 should give Nigeria some belief even if they have faced this nation four times in the World Cup Finals in twenty-four years and been beaten each time.

The last 4 games between Nigeria and Argentina have featured plenty of goals including a 3-2 win for Argentina in the 2014 World Cup Group Stage. There have been at least four goals scored in the last 4 between these nations and I think it will be another attacking game of football in a Group which has seen plenty of chances created by teams even if only one of the four Group games has featured more than two goals shared out.

All four Group games have got to two goals shared out and the situation is clear for both teams in this one to think there will be chances created throughout the ninety minutes. That should mean we see at least three goals in this one and that is my selection from the game.


Also I have this to say to anyone who has backed the same selections from the outright preview of this Group- after selecting both Argentina and Croatia to fail to qualify for the Last 16 we have a 9/2 shot on our side here. I would suggest there is a position to be locked in here by backing Argentina to qualify at 1.72 in various places although I do think that is a short price.

There is a clear path through for Argentina though and you can secure a profit by having some cash on them to get out of the Group if already backed Argentina to miss out on the Last 16.


Wednesday 27th June
Mexico v Sweden Pick: For most teams winning two games in the Group would be enough to make it through to the Last 16 of the World Cup Finals, but Mexico's position has yet to be secured. They are still very much favourites to win this Group, but the danger is a 2-0 defeat to Sweden coupled with a Germany win by a couple of goals would be enough to see Mexico slip down to 3rd in this section and see them head home before the Knock Out Rounds.

It is a big ask for Sweden to do that considering the absolute hammer of an emotional blow they took when losing to ten man Germany deep into injury time. A point in that game would have meant the Swedes needed just a point from this one to see off the defending World Champions but instead they are now going to have to come out of their comfort zone.

A one goal win would be enough for Sweden to make it through to the Last 16 so they could delay going hell for leather in this one, but they have to show a little more forward thrust. There is a scenario where a draw would be enough and perhaps even a defeat, but most Swedish fans have to accept that Germany are most likely going to beat South Korea which means the pressure is on to win this game.

The temptation for Mexico to rest players has also been removed knowing a loss makes them the most likely team to exit the tournament. If Mexico lose and Germany win by two or more goals it will be Mexico heading home with the two European teams making it through to the Last 16 and that puts some pressure on the Mexican team.

However I think the energy Mexico have shown in the forward areas is hard to ignore and at some point in this one Sweden will have to try and get into attacking areas and commit men. The first half could be a slow burner as the teams just get a feel for one another, but the tension will ramp up and I am favouring Mexico to find the right answers.

Sweden have created chances and scored in both games played so far which has been a surprising aspect of their play. That should give them some confidence, but picking yourself up from the devastating defeat to Germany is going to be very difficult and I think backing Mexico on the Asian Handicap is the right play as they perhaps catch Sweden overcommitting at some point.


South Korea v Germany Pick: It looked like Germany were going to be the third straight defending World Cup Champion who would be exiting the next Finals in the Group Stage.

Then up stepped Toni Kroos to save the nation.

The 2-1 win over Sweden means Germany are in a strong position to make it through to the Last 16 but things are not as simple as they look. If Sweden have recovered mentally from the defeat to Germany, a 1-0 win would be enough to take them through to the Last 16.

In that situation Germany would need to win by a two goal margin or score more goals than Sweden in a one goal win and that would also mean they would be going through as Group Winners and avoid the potential Last 16 tie with Brazil which looks a huge possibility.

I don't think anyone in the German camp will be worrying about who they could potentially face in the Last 16 but instead want to take the lifeline they have earned and make it through to the Knock Out Rounds. They have to defend better than they have so far, but Germany will be confident they can beat a South Korea team who are almost heading home.

South Korea have not been very good in the tournament and they are heavily reliant on Son Heung-min who scored a special goal in the 1-2 defeat to Mexico which has put them on the brink of exiting the tournament. It will need a couple of huge upsets for South Korea to make it through to the Last 16 and they have to go on the search for goals, but that should play into the hands of Germany and I think the World Champions won't miss out on the opportunity they have created for themselves.

I expect Germany to dictate the tempo of this one and I think they have to show better defensive shape as they did in the second half against Sweden. I expect Germany to pick up from where they left off and I am pretty sure they are going to win this game by a decent margin even in a tournament where so many of the favourites have flattered to deceive in matches when set as a strong favourite.


Serbia v Brazil Pick: The two Last 16 places at the top of Group E are still very much up for grabs and one of those, at least, are going to either Serbia or Brazil. The winner of this match is going to definitely go through and I think this could make it an exciting game with both Serbia and Brazil better going forward than they are defending.

There is a situation in which Brazil can lose and still go through, but they will need a big favour from Costa Rica and the pressure is on another of the big nations.

Like many others, Brazil have made it harder work for themselves by not winning one of their two Group games played and they needed two very late goals to win the last one against Costa Rica. That has made them favourites to progress, but the fans back home will be demanding more from a team who had been flying in friendlies heading into the tournament in Russia.

I do wonder if the players are feeling the pressure of having to make up for the humiliating ending to the 2014 World Cup on home soil when Brazil conceded 10 goals in their final two games. They have been a little slow with their tempo and the players have not been as intense all over the pitch as the manager would like.

The situation in this one is better than the Costa Rica game as that team were content playing out for a point. This time Brazil are facing a team who have to come forward and score goals with a draw not going to be good enough for Serbia after losing 1-2 to Switzerland from a winning position on Friday.

Serbia now have to commit men forward, but they have shown enough to think they can challenge a Brazilian defence which is far from watertight. However I see a situation where they have to chase the game at times which may leave things open for Brazil to counter and finish this match off too and so my lean is the South American nation are able to win and likely win the Group.

My one concern is there is a potential for Brazil to settle for a draw if it means avoiding facing Germany in the Last 16 if it has been confirmed the World Champions have finished 2nd in Group F earlier in the day. A draw would likely be good enough for Brazil to finish 2nd in this Group, but it is a risky play and I think it is perhaps too risky at this point of the Group.

Backing Brazil to win a game where there is at least two goals scored in the match is the play for me here.


Switzerland v Costa Rica Pick: There was some real controversy out of the Switzerland win over Serbia with the latter very upset with the actions of the two goalscorers in that game. Both Granit Xhaka and Xherdan Shaqiri have avoided bans though and that is key for the Swiss who are looking to secure their place in the Last 16.

There shouldn't be too many problems for them in doing that even if Switzerland are a team that don't look as good as they perform. They work well as a team and facing an already eliminated opponent will mean Switzerland are very much in line to get the point they need to progress.

Some may be looking at something even better by winning the Group, but Switzerland could actually benefit from finishing 2nd and entering the weaker side of the Knock Out Stages.

With that in mind it is a surprise to see Switzerland as short as they are to win this match assuming Germany have finished 2nd in Group F. If that has happened earlier in the day I am not sure Switzerland are going to be pushing for a win in this one knowing a point would be good enough to secure 2nd place regardless of what has happened in the other game being played at the same time.

Costa Rica have not been very good in this tournament as the squad has not transitioned to a younger core in the four years since making the World Cup Quarter Final. They have shown some defensive strength to hold out against Brazil for the full 90 minutes before being undone in injury time, but in the other game against Serbia Costa Rica were poor.

What has happened is they have created chances in both games and I think Costa Rica will have their chances in this one too if Switzerland are just lacking a bit of forward intensity. It would be a surprise if the Swiss didn't have their own chances and in a World Cup that has featured plenty of goals this could be the latest to go down that route.

Instead of the over 2.5 goals option I will back both teams to score with the 1-1 a real player as far as I am concerned and that can be found at a similar price to the over option.


Thursday 28th June
Japan v Poland Pick: If you were to point to the biggest disappointment of the World Cup Finals so far I think Poland could be the team who would take that 'honour'.

Some would say Argentina, but at least Argentina go into their final Group game with Qualification to the Last 16 still an option, whereas Poland are out of the tournament after playing just two games. The manner of the losses have been so disheartening for Poland fans who would have been hoping they could have a big tournament after reaching the Euro 2016 Quarter Final and only being beaten on penalties by eventual Winners Portugal.

Instead they have barely been a threat in the first two games and now have nothing but pride to play for in the final game.

I expect Poland will have some opportunities to impress against a Japan team who have really overachieved at this point and are on the brink of making the Last 16. A point is needed to secure that spot else they will be keeping a keen eye on how things are going in the other game in the Group, but Japan have to be better defensively if they are going to earn that.

Playing an already eliminated opponent has to be a boost for Japan because they have the energy and work rate to make life difficult for Poland which could take away any remaining enthusiasm the European team will be feeling. Japan did not have big expectations in the tournament but have shown they can do enough from an attacking perspective to create opportunities and I don't think that will be any different in this match.

I'm not convinced about Japan, but Poland look in disarray and so I am leaning towards the Asian team earning a positive result. However it may not be easy with the defensive issues Japan have continued to demonstrate and I expect Poland will do everything they can to at least give their fans something to shout about.

Backing at least three goals to be scored in a match featuring these two teams is odds against and I like that option. All four games featuring these nations at the World Cup Finals have ended with at least three goals shared out and neither is sound enough defensively to believe that won't be the case here.

A 1-1 scoreline with the game running down is a concern as that would be enough for Japan to sit in and protect the point they are earning. However I think there may be enough defensive problems earlier in the game to see the three goals hit before we get to that stage of the game.


Senegal v Colombia Pick: You would think earning 4 points from the first couple of Group games would mean a team is in a comfortable position to believe they can make the Last 16 of the World Cup. However Senegal will know they are playing arguably the best team in the Group in their final game and a team who will be desperate to secure the three points they need to make it through to the Last 16 themselves.

This should not have been an issue for Senegal who beat Poland and then twice had the lead against Japan before being pegged back for a 2-2 draw. Now they are in a position where they have to earn a result against a confident Colombia side off the back of an impressive 3-0 win over Poland.

A defeat for Senegal would mean they are relying on already eliminated Poland to beat Japan and so this is a tough position for the African team to be in. They have shown enough going forward to think they can pose a threat, but the defensive work against Japan was very, very poor and the goalkeeper is not someone I would be very confident in.

Now they face Colombia who looked so impressive against Poland and who only lost their first game because they played that match with Japan for ten men for almost the entire game. With the players they have in forward areas Colombia will believe they can expose the Senegal back line as Japan did and I do think they can win this one.

Of course there is the risk of overcommitting if Colombia are still level with Senegal with the game into the final 20 minutes, but I think they are the better team and they can still win this Group. The onus is on Colombia, but they won't mind that with the quality they have in the final third.

They were sometimes guilty of overplaying in the final third or they misplaced the final ball which would have undone Poland, but Colombia should have enough here. I like the way Senegal go about things and I think their pace in the final third is a real problem to deal with, but Colombia are the better team with the better attacking players in a number of positions and I think they win this one in what could be a really good game of football.


England v Belgium Pick: Most expected the final game between England and Belgium to be a decider when it comes to winning Group G and that is how it has boiled down after both nations earned wins over Panama and Tunisia.

While it would have been expected that winning the Group was going to be important to both managers, the situation with Germany has really changed the landscape. If Germany don't win Group F, as is the expectation at the time of writing, then the team finishing in 2nd place in Group G will have a much 'easier' section of the Knock Out Stage to deal with.

That is only added to by the chance of Colombia failing to win Group H which means the team winning Group G could have to face Colombia and then Brazil or Germany just to make the Semi Final.

On the other hand the team finishing 2nd is potentially in line to face Japan and then the winner of Mexico and Switzerland which is clearly a much more enticing run to the Semi Final.

What does that all mean? It means this final game in the Group is one neither England or Belgium should really want to win and Belgium are going to be finishing 2nd because of their poorer disciplinary record if they don't win this one. Roberto Martinez has already made it clear he is going to make wholesale changes to his squad and I don't think anything that will have happened is going to change his mind now.

Could this be a controversial game where the teams are trying to rack up the bookings or potentially allowing the other to beat them? It does raise some questions when you think of the obvious advantage of finishing 2nd in the Group assuming everything goes the way it should in the days ahead.

You certainly can't ignore it and I would suggest holding your money on this fixture until the Group E and F games are completed on Wednesday. By then you will at least know if 2nd place in Group G means avoiding both Brazil and Germany in the Quarter Final, while Group H will be finalised in the hours leading up to kick off in this fixture which will mean the Last 16 ties are set for the Winner and Runner Up.

I think the situation is such that Gareth Southgate will have to embrace where England are and so pick a team that beats Belgium to show they fear no one they are going to face in the next couple of weeks. The pathway is not ideal, but I do think there is a real potential England could avoid Colombia who I fancy to win Group H but either way Southgate will not want to show his players that he 'fears' winning the Group.

Martinez is in a much better position with Belgium as he announced his intentions BEFORE England battered Panama to take over at the top of the Group. He can make it clear that he always intended to make wholesale changes and ultimately his Belgium team will benefit.

There is a rivalry that could spice the game up a little bit with the Belgian squad involving so many Premier League players who will want bragging rights. However winning a World Cup will be more important than this one game and I am anticipating Southgate will pick a strong team which is capable of winning the game and winning the Group.

Belgium have a deep squad but if Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, Dries Mertens and Romelu Lukaku are missing they are clearly not as good as they could be. Take out Jan Vertonghen and Thomas Meunier from defensive roles and Belgium take another hit so I am backing England on the Asian Handicap to win this one at the time of writing.


I would most definitely wait to see how the Groups before this one pan out before making a final play, but I think England will be the stronger team on the night as Belgium refuse to really want to win this game. If Germany have somehow won their Group then Belgium may make more effort, but if they are set to face Brazil in the Second Round and then one of those teams will be waiting for the Winner of Group G if they progress past the Last 16 means it is unlikely the Belgium team will push too hard to find a winner.

England will want to go into the tough battles with the momentum of three Group wins now they are unlikely to finish 2nd barring some outrageous tackling, and I think they will be a good team to back by Wednesday night when Group E and F has been decided.


Panama v Tunisia Pick: The World Cup may be coming to an end for both Panama and Tunisia but both teams should be highly motivated to earn a result that will see them return home as heroes.

The pressure is on Tunisia because the Panama players have already secured their spot in the hearts of the fans having just made it through to the World Cup Finals. They have also scored a goal here which would have been the minimum aim and now Panama can have a free shot on winning a World Cup point or even a first ever World Cup win.

For Tunisia the fans would have expected to break their long wait for a World Cup win in Russia. The nation won their first ever World Cup game back in 1978 but they have since failed to win any of 13 Finals games and the match with Panama is clearly a big opportunity for these players to snap the long wait.

That puts pressure on players to perform and that is my one fear for Tunisia who are also missing so many key players through injury. The injuries to the starting goalkeeper and two starting centre halves is a major blow to a team who had lost their star striker prior to the tournament and it is going to be a challenge for Tunisia to pick themselves up from the 'bad breaks' they will feel they have been given.

However they should be the team providing the most quality in this one having scored goals against both Belgium and England in the Group. There hasn't been sustained moments of threat from Tunisia but they are now facing a defence that has been naive at time and I would fully expect the African nation to win this one.

I won't be overly surprised if Panama add to their goal scored against England though as Tunisia have not defended well at all, but I would still think Tunisia have enough about them to expose their opponents from set pieces as England did. Ultimately I do think Tunisia will have to score at least twice to win this one and I do think they are good enough to edge out Panama.

It makes my selection fairly easy in backing Tunisia to win a game that features at least two goals on the night as these two nations bid farewell to Russia.

MY PICKS: Saudi Arabia + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Uruguay-Russia Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Iran-Portugal Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.80 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Spain to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 3.40 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Australia-Peru Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Denmark-France 0-0 Correct Score @ 6.50 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
Croatia - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nigeria-Argentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Mexico - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Germany - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Brazil to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.85 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Switzerland-Costa Rica Both Teams to Score @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Japan-Poland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Colombia @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
England 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tunisia to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Group Stage Round Robin Three Update: 8-8, + 3.53 Units (27.50 Units Staked, + 12.84% Yield)

Group Stage Round Robin Two Final: 8-7-1, + 1.09 Units (31 Units Staked, + 3.52% Yield)
Group Stage Round Robin One Final: 8-8, + 5.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 18.71% Yield)