The Miami Masters has proven to be a story of missed opportunities as yet more Break Points came and went in what turned out to be another fairly routine win for Jannik Sinner over Alexander Zverev.
The latter played better than he did in Indian Wells, but it was saving a single Break Point in one game followed by getting out of a 15-40 jam in the next that allowed Alexander Zverev to force a second set Tie-Breaker, which ultimately landed in the wrong direction for the German player.
We are about to head into the clay court season, but before that we have to see both Singles Finals completed.
The WTA Final goes up first on Saturday with the ATP Final on Sunday concluding this opening hard court run in the 2026 season.
While the majority of the top ATP players will then rest ahead of the Monte Carlo Masters in early April, the WTA takes in a clay court event in Charleston and plenty of experienced players will begin the clay court season there. In the past it has been a tournament that plays pretty differently to the European clay, but it is a big event with a 500 mark attached and that does mean seven of the current top 20 will be competing.
The clay court season does feel like it is long enough with the French Open beginning at the end of May, but the big tournaments come around very quickly and so players have to pick and choose their spots. The Madrid and Rome big 1000 events begin at the end of April through to the middle of May and at that point the majority of the big French Open contenders will take a break and prepare for what they hope will be a productive trip to Paris.
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Coco Gauff: This is going to be the thirteenth professional meeting between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff and the Miami Champion will end the night with a 7-6 lead.
It is the World Number 1 who has begun to get the better of Coco Gauff more often than not with four wins in the last six, but there is rarely a lot between the players and the slight adjustments made can turn things back around. There are perhaps some signs of that happening considering the last four between Sabalenka and Gauff have been split with two wins apiece, while the biggest win in that time is Coco Gauff's success in the French Open Final last year.
She is not just the home player in terms of this being played in the United States, but Coco Gauff was born in Florida and still lives there- this means having the local support and plenty of support from friends and family ahead of this big Final.
The run has been something of a surprise when you think the World Number 4 had to withdraw mid-match in Indian Wells and had some serious concerns about shooting pains in her arm. A MRI came back clear, but that would have reduced expectations in the second half of the Sunshine Double and it has already been a productive fortnight that will be concluded with a jump up to World Number 3 when the next set of World Rankings are released on Monday morning.
The overall level in 2026 has been a little below what is expected from Gauff, but she has looked stronger in the Miami event and that will help her confidence. The second serve continues to be a big weakness for the 22 year old as she continues to try and develop her tennis, but Coco Gauff has been able to cover up those issues by making more first serves and backing it up with solid returning numbers.
She is going to need all of that and more if she is going to upset the World Number 1 who has followed the title win in Indian Wells by producing high quality tennis here in Miami.
Aryna Sabalenka will be particularly pleased with getting the better of Elena Rybakina for a second tournament in a row after losing the Australian Open Final against the World Number 2, and the serve continues to put her in a strong position to win any match she plays.
There is room for improvement on the return with the numbers slightly below her usual level on the hard courts, but Aryna Sabalenka may feel her Semi Final win over Elena Rybakina is proof that everything is coming together just in time for another title to be secured.
Nothing ever comes easily against Coco Gauff and that is because the American can get plenty of balls back in play and neutralise rallies when at her best.
There have been signs of that in this tournament, but Aryna Sabalenka is playing at a much stronger level than most right now and the World Number 1 can complete the Sunshine Double with a solid win in the Final.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Miami Update: 18-17, + 0.21 Units (34 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)
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