It has been a conscious decision to make a slower start to the Tennis Picks at Indian Wells and that is partly down to the uncertainty as to how conditions are playing here this year.
The other reason is the continuous rumours of illnesses surging through the field, which is something that slightly concerns me whenever I've seen a price drifting.
Two selections have been made from the opening Second Round matches at the tournament as Day 3 gets underway.
On Thursday, the two selections were split with a win apiece, but that meant the narrowest of positive returns- at the moment the idea is to slowly build into the event, but you just never know when there are multiple matches that hit the criteria being used to move from shortlist to selection.
Victoria Mboko - 5.5 games v Kimberly Birrell: Like many sports, there is always going to be times when you want to identify the next big stars coming through.
Two teenagers are making waves in the top ten of the World Rankings and Victoria Mboko may be feeling most confident.
The 19 year old has reached the Final at a couple of tournaments on the hard courts in 2026, although Victoria Mboko has come up short both times. The latter of those appearances was in the Final of the WTA 1000 event in Doha and Mboko has also reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open.
Twelve months ago, Victoria Mboko was sitting outside the top 150 in the World Rankings and would have been taking part in tournaments far below this elite level. It means the Canadian has little to defend in terms of Ranking Points until the Tour moves significantly into the clay court season in preparation for the French Open and Victoria Mboko has been playing well enough to believe she can have a strong impact in Indian Wells.
Playing here for the first time will be challenging, but Mboko has to be pretty comfortable with the opponent she is facing in the Second Round.
Kimberly Birrell was a comfortable winner in the First Round and reached the Semi Final in Austin last week, but it has been a real struggle for the World Number 69 when she has stepped up to face some of the top players on the Tour.
Over the last twelve months, Kimberly Birrell has a 4-8 record on the hard courts when facing top 50 Ranked opponents and her numbers have taken a significant dip in those compared with her overall form on the surface.
The first serve has perhaps not had the impact she would have hoped and Kimberly Birrell has struggled on the return, which are both going to pose problems for her in this kind of match.
Both Amanda Anisimova and Elena Rybakina have secured very strong wins over Kimberly Birrell on the hard courts in 2026, while Victoria Mboko beat her for the loss of just three games in the Adelaide Semi Final back in January.
This is the second time Victoria Mboko has beaten Kimberly Birrell on the hard courts over the last seven months and the younger player has been a much more confident server in those head to head matches. When they played in Montreal last August, Mboko wasn't quite as effective on the return, but still won pretty handily and was much improved in that aspect of her tennis when facing the Australian in Adelaide.
You have to expect Kimberly Birrell has picked up some confidence from her performance in Austin and then winning an opening Round match here, which also means being a bit more comfortable in the conditions.
However, not only has she lost all five hard court matches against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months, but Kimberly Birrell would not have covered this line in four of those defeats and that may be the case again in the Second Round.
Alexandra Eala v Dayana Yastremska: One player who seemingly plays at an unexpected level when she is opposed on these pages, but is so far off it when she is backed, is Dayana Yastremska.
However, she is going to be opposed in this Second Round match at Indian Wells.
A win in the First Round will have made the World Number 52 feel a lot better about her tennis, but she has a 4-7 record prior to Indian Wells on the hard courts. Dayana Yastremska has struggled for any kind of consistency and her numbers on serve and return both back that up.
Draws can slant any record, but it should be noted that Dayana Yastremska is just 4-4 when going into a match as the higher Ranked player- even in those matches, the numbers remain disappointing for a former Australian Open Semi Finalist.
Without a doubt that has to have had an impact on the confidence.
At the moment it does feel like Alexandra Eala is a touch overrated in the main- she has played at Rafael Nadal's Academy, which will generate headlines, and the youngster has put some solid results on the board that means she climbed 100 places in the World Rankings from January 2025 to January 2026.
An early exit at the Australian Open would have hurt considering the support she received, but Alexandra Eala has bounced back with a solid run through the Middle East.
Out of the two players, Alexandra Eala has been putting up some solid hard court numbers and she will have taken confidence from the crushing win produced over Dayana Yastremska on the grass courts of Eastbourne last June.
A slow hard court is a different test, but Alexandra Eala comes into the match having won nine of the thirteen matches played against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20 on the hard courts this season. Her numbers have been very good, and she looks like she can edge past the Ukrainian into the Third Round.
MY PICKS: Victoria Mboko - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (1 Unit)
Alexandra Eala @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)
Indian Wells Update: 1-2, - 0.90 Units (3 Units Staked, - 30% Yield)
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