Some may feel the second ATP Semi Final scheduled to be played on Friday is a de facto Final with the winner likely going to be set as a strong favourite in the title match on Sunday. The two other players left in the draw will certainly have something to say about that, but Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev are playing at a really high level and the day of rest between the Semi Final and Final will certainly edge things in their favour.
A mixed Day 10 has continued to hold back the totals, but that is just the way the second half of this Masters event has gone.
One selection is available from the ATP Semi Final matches to be played on Day 11 and that can be read below.
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alexander Zverev: For the second Masters event in a row, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev meet and this is a match that really comes down to the racquet of the latter.
He must serve well if he is going to produce the upset, but it may be asking too much against the World Number 2.
In Indian Wells, Jannik Sinner dominated the second serve of Alexander Zverev and that saw him coast to a pretty comfortable win. Not only does that make it six wins in a row for Sinner, all on the hard courts, but the last three have been very one-sided and something will have to change for Alexander Zverev to even put a competitive performance on the board.
Protecting that second serve more effectively is important, but there is also considerable concern with the way Alexander Zverev has been dealing with the Sinner delivery.
In the last three matches, Alexander Zverev has not been able to win more than 31% of return points played and that has kept him under the pump. In their last meeting in Indian Wells, Zverev managed to win just 26% of return points played and he has now broken the Jannik Sinner serve once in the last five matches played.
During that same period, Alexander Zverev has been constantly having to fend off Break Points and it is very difficult to see much changing with the short turnaround between recent matches.
Jannik Sinner is playing exceptionally well in Miami and is on course to complete the Sunshine Double, which will give him a huge amount of confidence to take into the clay court season as he looks to become the latest player to complete the career Grand Slam.
This is a big spread and a strong serving display from Alexander Zverev will make it very difficult to cover, but Jannik Sinner's recent head to head against the German makes him the right play in this second Semi Final scheduled for Friday.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Miami Update: 18-16, + 1.21 Units (33 Units Staked, + 3.67% Yield)
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