The last couple of years have proven to be a little difficult in terms of reading the Indian Wells Masters and the 2026 tournament looks to be no different.
There has been some meat left on the table with a couple of selections coming up short of the criteria and producing the winners that have been lacking so far this week.
On Wednesday, the Fourth Round is concluded at this Masters event and there are some very good looking matches heading out onto the courts, but it would be greatly appreciated if at least two of the three selections enter the Winners' Enclosure and start pulling things back as we approach the business end of the first of two big events to be played in March.
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The Fourth Round defeat at the Australian Open not only hurt because it came relatively early in the draw, but the manner in which Daniil Medvedev was beaten would have stung.
There may have been something of a hangover after that tournament with early defeats in Rotterdam and Doha on the board, but Daniil Medvedev cruised through the draw at the ATP 500 event in Dubai and won the title.
The World Number 11 concluded the title win just hours after the Middle East erupted into a war that meant airspace was closed and that also meant Daniil Medvedev arrived in Indian Wells a little later than planned. However, that has not impacted the confidence that he would have picked up from that run in Dubai and Daniil Medvedev has impressed through the first two wins at the opening ATP 1000 event of the season.
Another strong run will help Daniil Medvedev move back into the top ten of the World Rankings and it will also offer him a boost as he looks to find a way to bridge the gap between himself and the top two players in the world.
Once again Daniil Medvedev is producing some strong numbers on the hard courts and he is backing up his serve by keeping opponents under pressure on the return.
The returning side of his tennis will be tested by Alex Michelsen who had been struggling for consistency since reaching the Semi Final in Brisbane and before he arrived in Indian Wells. The American had not won consecutive matches since Brisbane, but Michelsen is back on track with three wins at this tournament and that will give him some belief.
Adding to the confidence is the fact he was able to beat Taylor Fritz in the Third Round and Alex Michelsen is already moving his World Ranking back in the right direction with the run he is putting together here.
Reaching the Fourth Round is already the best run he has produced at Indian Wells and he is really making the best use out of the serve in the conditions.
Alex Michelsen is going to be well aware that he needs to continue serving well if he is going to beat Daniil Medvedev for the first time having been beaten in all three previous matches.
Two have been on the hard courts, including here in Indian Wells last year in a match that lasted just two games and the other in the Brisbane Semi Final in January and Alex Michelsen has really struggled to impose his serve on this opponent.
Putting the very short match here at Indian Wells aside, it should be noted that Alex Michelsen only won 53% of points behind serve when facing Daniil Medvedev in Brisbane and he was broken four times in that match. He did create chances against the Medvedev serve, but the biggest points were won by the higher Ranked player and that could be the outcome in this Fourth Round match too.
Daniil Medvedev will recognise that his opponent is playing with some confidence, but the World Number 11 has been in really good nick for a couple of weeks now and he may have the superior returning numbers to edge to a cover of this handicap mark set.
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Katerina Siniakova: The emotion came pouring out of Katerina Siniakova after her Third Round win over defending Champion Mirra Andreeva- she admitted in the post match interview that she had very little left in the tank as the match was concluded and Tuesday is an important recovery day.
Three wins have been produced in Indian Wells, but the World Number 44 has battled for everything earned.
These days the majority of the successes that Katerina Siniakova has is on a Doubles court, but she has long been an effective and awkward Singles player to beat and most of the top players know that. However, prior to the tournament in Indian Wells, Siniakova had not won consecutive Singles matches within an event and she had put together a 2-5 record on the hard courts.
All three wins have been in three sets this week and Katerina Siniakova eight hours on the court.
It is going to add up and take a toll and this is a tough match up for the lower Ranked player against Elina Svitolina who tends to give little away.
All four previous matches between the players have been won by the Ukrainian, including two years ago right here in Indian Wells.
Elina Svitolina is not someone who will take anything for granted when noting that all of those four previous head to head matches have needed to go the distance before the current World Number 9 has found a way through. The numbers have been skewed in favour of Svitolina in those head to head matches, but she will know that she needs to be focused and has to give Katerina Siniakova little encouragement.
The wins have been piling up in 2026, but Elina Svitolina plays with fine margins and that has meant she has sometimes been pushed a bit more than she would have expected within matches. That happened in the Second Round at this latest WTA 1000 event, but Svitolina was comfortable in the Third Round and should have far too much energy for her opponent, which will ultimately show up on the scoreboard.
Iga Swiatek - 2.5 games v Karolina Muchova: The Covid pandemic meant the Indian Wells tournament was moved out of its usual spot in the calendar, but it has been restored to the month of March in recent times.
In four editions of the tournament back in its normal place, Iga Swiatek has manaed to win the title twice and she has been a Semi Finalist in the other two appearances here.
Over the last twelve months, Iga Swiatek has remained a solid force on the hard courts, but Quarter Final runs at the Australian Open and in Doha are underwhelming returns for the World Number 2.
The Pole has been in good nick through the first couple of matches in Indian Wells, but this is a big step up in level when taking on Karolina Muchova, who has won all eight matches played since her Fourth Round loss at the Australian Open. That run has secured one title and Karolina Muchova could soon move back inside the top ten of the World Rankings if she can maintain current form.
She is an all-court player and Muchova has long been seen as someone who can upset the odds and win a Major, but her head to head with Iga Swiatek has been a problem.
In 2026, Karolina Muchova's serve on the hard courts continues to be a big weapon, but Iga Swiatek has matched those numbers and it is the latter who has been a little more effective when it comes to the return of serve.
That has really shown up when it comes to the head to head and it is Iga Swiatek who has won all three previous hard court matches- while the World Number 2 has been broken five times across those matches, Swiatek has broken the Karolina Muchova serve fourteen times and has a real advantage when it comes to the returning numbers produced.
Just twelve months ago they met here at Indian Wells at the same stage of the tournament and Karolina Muchova was able to win just two games as she was brushed aside.
It is very hard to believe she struggles as much as that considering how well she has been playing, but Karolina Muchova may end up being edged out in the opening two sets and that should be enough for Iga Swiatek to get the better of this handicap line.
This is the toughest test that Iga Swiatek will have faced in the tournament, but she is playing well enough to maintain her current advantages over Karolina Muchova and can end the winning run being produced by the latter.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Iga Swiatek - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Indian Wells Update: 7-11, - 5.20 Units (18 Units Staked, - 28.89% Yield)
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