Day 7 was not an impressive one for the Tennis Picks, but there was a little bit of misfortune around some of the selections.
Ugo Humbert, Aryna Sabalenka and Jakub Mensik all came very close to doing enough to cover, but a Break of serve here or a poor service game there proved costly.
However, overall it has been a solid tournament and there is every hope that Day 7 is only a slight setback.
It is another busy day coming up on Tuesday with the ATP Fourth Round completed and the opening two WTA Quarter Final matches also scheduled to be played.
The weather is continuing to play ball with the tournament, which is a good thing, and there are five selections on Day 8, which can be read below and with the Miami totals updated.
Sebastian Korda - 3.5 games v Martin Landaluce: Upsets have opened this portion of the ATP Miami draw and a big opportunity comes up for both Sebastian Korda and Martin Landaluce to reach the business end of a 1000 level event.
They have not taken advantage of others doing the hard work so there is going to be a lot of confidence in both camps.
Sebastian Korda has the biggest win after coming through against World Number 1 Carlos Alcaraz in the Third Round- he should have won in straight sets, but all credit should be given to Korda for overcoming the disappointment in the middle of the match and still finding a way to fight through in three sets.
The American is plenty experienced and is a former top 20 Ranked player so it is no surprise that Sebastian Korda is the favourite in this Fourth Round match.
However, he has to be very aware of the fact that Martin Landaluce has already beaten two opponents Ranked higher than Korda in making his way through to the Fourth Round here having begun his tournament in the Qualifying Rounds. The 20 year old has beaten four top 100 Ranked players in Miami and all of his wins have been against players Ranked higher than himself, and it is a run that will have surprised Martin Landaluce's team as much as anyone else.
Over the last twelve months, Martin Landaluce has put together some solid hard court numbers against top 100 Ranked opponents and that will have to be respected. The serve has been a huge weapon in Miami and the numbers have been considerably stronger than his overall hard court serving numbers and so you do have to wonder how long he can keep this going.
Following up an important win can be tough, but Sebastian Korda will point out that he has won eighteen of the twenty-two hard court matches played against opponents Ranked outside the top 50 over the last twelve month period. However, he will have to be careful in this Fourth Round match as all four of those defeats have been disappointing ones facing players Ranked outside the top 100, even if the numbers have remained relatively strong.
This is a big spread, but Sebastian Korda may do enough to edge past the handicap mark set against an opponent who will be edging back towards his career best World Ranking after an unexpectedly strong run here.
Tommy Paul - 3.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: Finding enough consistency to push on with improving his career high World Ranking has been difficult for Tomas Martin Etcheverry and the numbers have been steady on all surfaces.
The clay court season feels like it will be important for Etcheverry and he may be entering that part of the 2026 year with more confidence having put a solid run together here in Miami.
He is going to be the underdog in this Fourth Round match against Tommy Paul, but Tomas Martin Etcheverry is a solid enough hard court player to feel he has every chance of earning the upset. However, the Argentinian player has not beaten a player Ranked in the top 20 on this surface over the last twelve months and, in fact, Tomas Martin Etcheverry has been beaten in all four of those matches played.
The problem has been that he has struggled to impose his serve on those matches, while the return game has simply not been good enough to make up for that fact.
Tommy Paul has dropped out of the top 20 of the World Rankings, but he needs one or two more wins to push back into that elite portion of the Tour. The hard court results have perhaps not been as good as the overall performances, but Tommy Paul will have taken plenty of belief out of the two wins he has had in Miami having had to dig deep to win both in three sets.
There has been little wrong with the serving, but Tommy Paul will know there is room for improvement when it comes to the return- those numbers have not been as strong as they were in 2025, and Paul will be looking to be a bit more effective in that side of his tennis to push forward.
The 28 year old is pretty effective on all surfaces so the next several months is a chance to rebuild some of the confidence, as well as the World Ranking, while Tommy Paul may feel his current return level is still enough to find the opportunities to win this Fourth Round match.
Covering the handicap will be challenging on recent form, but Tomas Martin Etcheverry has just had a bit of a struggle for consistency and that may give Tommy Paul the opportunity to produce a solid victory in this match.
Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The two hard court wins that Jannik Sinner holds over Alex Michelsen were both played in 2024, and both are improved since those matches.
However, it is Sinner who has improved that much more and his hard court numbers over the last two years are very special.
He is on for the Sunshine Double, which has not been completed by many players previously, and Carlos Alcaraz already exiting the tournament only strengthens Jannik Sinner's position as favourite.
Alex Michelsen is going to be under pressure to serve at his very best.
Anything below that level will give Jannik Sinner all of the momentum, especially as Michelsen has only broken in 8% of return games played against the World Number 2 in those previous matches. His return can still be something of a weakness, especially against the elite players on the Tour and the two losses to Daniil Medvedev earlier this season back that up.
It is a wide spread, but Jannik Sinner is playing with some supreme confidence after picking up the title in Indian Wells and he will be looking to push much closer to the World Number 1, if not overtake him in the World Rankings, over the next six weeks.
Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 games v Terence Atmane: The World Number 20 has tremendous grit and determination and that has to be respected, but Frances Tiafoe is rarely backed to cover any spread on these pages.
Why? The main reason is that his numbers are always pretty average and that means he is rarely winning matches with much confidence for those watching on.
Even in a recent run to the Final in Acapulco, Frances Tiafoe came through a couple of very tight matches before being fortunate to beat Brandon Nakashima in the Semi Final before finally coming up short- he was a little lucky to get through his Third Round match here in Miami on Monday too.
However, Terence Atmane can say the same after upsetting Felix Auger Aliassime and the Frenchman has much poorer overall numbers compared with his opponet in the Fourth Round here.
Terence Atmane had won just four of twelve hard court matches prior to his arrival in Miami and his Hold and Break percentages are considerably lower than those Frances Tiafoe has put together.
They actually played one another last month in Dallas and it was Atmane who won the opening set before Frances Tiafoe rallied and coasted through the next two.
On that day, the difference in the serving efficiency was evident and that may be the case again, although you do have to hope Frances Tiafoe has recovered from spending an hour longer on the court than the World Number 53 in their respective Third Round wins.
Karolina Muchova v Victoria Mboko: This is the second time these two are meeting in a big spot having contested the WTA 1000 Final in Doha last month.
This time a Semi Final spot is on the line for Victoria Mboko and Karolina Muchova and both have been producing strong hard court tennis all season.
The older player has been set as the narrow underdog, but Karolina Muchova will take confidence from the fact she has won a big title on the surface and her three defeats have been one apiece to the current top three in the World Rankings.
Victoria Mboko has perhaps passed Mirra Andreeva as the leading teenager capable of winning a Major after the development over the last twelve months- she was beaten in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open to the current World Number 1, but that has not dented any of the confidence and Victoria Mboko has reached at least the Quarter Final in every other hard court event played.
She will have learnt a lot from the defeat to Karolina Muchova in the Middle East, but the experience of the latter and the slightly stronger performances on the surface in 2026 suggests the World Number 14 can edge through here.
MY PICKS: Sebastian Korda - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tommy Paul - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Karolina Muchova @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Miami Update: 14-9, + 4.30 Units (22 Units Staked, + 19.55% Yield)
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