It has been an inconsistent opening week as the Tennis Picks have taken one step forwards and then two steps back, but that is just the nature of the Tour at times.
There have been moments when it has looked like there has been some momentum behind the selections, but Madison Keys failed to build on a 6-2 first set in losing her match on Monday evening and that meant another 2-2 day.
Tuesday looks a much more difficult day with the matches being competitively priced, but there are two more Picks from the day, which can be read below.
Felix Auger Aliassime - 1.5 games v Arthur Fils: Don't expect this to be a match filled with rallies considering the serving powers of both Arthur Fils and Felix Auger Aliassime.
That proved to be the difference in favour of Felix Auger Aliassime when he beat the Frenchman in Montpellier last month, although that was also a match played on an indoor hard court. Playing in outdoor conditions is always going to be a little different and especially in a tournament like the one held in Indian Wells where it can be that much more challenging, although Auger Aliassime is playing with enough confidence to back up that previous win over this opponent.
In that Quarter Final match last month, Felix Auger Aliassime dominated behind serve and it ended up putting pressure on Arthur Fils to respond.
Felix Auger Aliassime won 90% of service points played compared with Arthur Fils at 58% and the higher Ranked player will be confident in having the edge again.
Things will feel a little different as that event in Montpellier was the first Arthur Fils was competing in this season, but he has since reached the Final of an ATP 500 event held in Doha and the World Number 32 has impressed in his two wins in Indian Wells.
Confidence can be such a big factor and Arthur Fils is playing with a lot of that right now- his serve is still an important weapon and Fils is also showing plenty of athleticism around the court on his return, although that aspect of his tennis going to be severely tested by Felix Auger Aliassime.
The first month of the season was massively disappointing for Felix Auger Aliassime and included a First Round loss in Melbourne, but he has been flying since then.
Winning the title in Montpellier was followed by a run to the Final in Rotterdam and Semi Final in Dubai and the Canadian has been serving very well.
However, that has always been a strength of the Auger Aliassime game and it is the 18% Break percentage that actually stands out the most- he has not always been the best return player on the hard courts, but Felix Auger Aliassime is applying pressure on that side of the net and it may be a key reason that he can edge past Arthur Fils and most likely in straight sets.
He has needed to go three sets in both wins in Indian Wells, but there has been little wrong with the serve and Felix Auger Aliassime has continued to find the Breaks that he has needed and he can do something similar in this Fourth Round match up.
Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Joao Fonseca: There are some huge expectations on the shoulders of 19 year old Brazilian Joao Fonseca, but that has perhaps contributed to the player struggling to have the kind of impact people may have wanted to see from him.
Third Round runs at the French Open and Wimbledon helped push him close to the top 20 of the World Rankings at the end of the 2025 season, but Joao Fonseca arrived at Indian Wells as the World Number 35.
The numbers being produced over the last twelve months overall have been very solid and shows the growing presence around this player, but there has been little hard court action taken in this season.
With that said, Joao Fonseca has done very well to win three matches here and move through to this big Fourth Round match.
Joao Fonseca showed tremendous character to do just enough to edge past Karen Khachanov in the Second Round, but was so much more impressive in crushing Tommy Paul for the loss of five games last time out. In that win, Fonseca backed up his serve by keeping the home player under pressure on the return, but everyone around the teenager will be reminding him of the step up in level he will be facing in the Fourth Round.
That is because the Brazilian will be playing the World Number 2 and one of the top hard court players in the world in Jannik Sinner.
The latter has only played a couple of tournaments so far this season and will have been disappointed to have lost in the Semi Final at the Australian Open and the Quarter Final in Doha. That doesn't mean the Jannik Sinner numbers have dipped with him continuing to produce at an exceptionally high level on the hard courts, but he will be looking to build up some momentum.
Over the next couple of months, Sinner has little to defend in terms of Ranking Points and will be expecting to push up a lot closer to Carlos Alcaraz, but he will also want to win some titles and look to get something positive going ahead of the clay court season.
Jannik Sinner has looked a man on a mission with his two very convincing wins to open his time at Indian Wells and he did reach the Semi Final in his last appearance at this tournament two years ago.
He will certainly feel he serves well enough to contain much of the threat that will be posed by the youngster on the other side of the net, and Jannik Sinner exerts plenty of pressure on the return.
It means Joao Fonseca will have to serve really well to keep this one competitive and there are still levels for the Brazilian to develop to really get into a position to compete with the top two players on the Tour.
There is little doubt that Fonseca can have successes for a while, but maintaining the level needed to beat Jannik Sinner is going to be very difficult to achieve. One of the sets will be competitive, but it also would not be a big surprise if there is a period when the World Number 2 is able to string the games together and that can push Jannik Sinner into a position to cover the wide line set for the match.
MY PICKS: Felix Auger Aliassime - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Indian Wells Update: 7-9, - 3.20 Units (16 Units Staked, - 20% Yield)
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