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Saturday, 28 March 2026

Boxing Picks 2026- Sebastian Fundora vs Keith Thurman (Saturday 28th March)


This weekend represents the beginning of a very busy run for those Heavyweights associated with Frank Warren and his Queensberry stable- over the next seven weeks, almost the entire Division led by Warren will be out in big fights or main events and the Heavyweight landscape could look very different at the end of that run.

A World Title will be defended, but there is plenty of intrigue around young (Moses Itauma) and older (Tyson Fury) fighters as they look to get into the mix.

Oleksandr Usyk is still the man to beat in the Division, but he is taking on an opponent that feels little more than an exhibition for the unbeaten Champion.

A bigger fiht will be expected at the end of the year and that is where the names going out over the next several weeks have to push their credentials.


Moses Itauma is headlining a solid fight card in Manchester, but there is also a significant night planned in the United States where Sebastian Fundora defends his Light Middleweight World Title against Keith Thurman.

Much like the card in Manchester, this is a fight that was delayed by an injury to the 'A' side name, but it is a solid looking card in Las Vegas and the main event is likely going to give the victorious fighter plenty of big options going forward.


The last ten months have been pretty disappointing for the Boxing Picks and that has covered the back end of 2025 into 2026.

A little bit of luck has been missing at times, but it is important to try and avoid the poor decisions which have made things a little more difficult.



Moses Itauma vs Jermaine Franklin

Soon after making his professional debut, suggestions that Moses Itauma had targeted becoming the youngest Heavyweight World Champion of all time quickly propelled the story forwards.

In a four Belt era, that did sound a possibility if Moses Itauma could fulfil his obvious potential, but the recent investment of Saudi Arabia tied those Belts up.

Moses Itauma has also had a couple of delays in his career through injury, but there is every chance that this 21 year old can place himself pretty high on the list of youngest Heavyweight Champions later this year.

All of those plans would be ripped up if Itauma is not able to move past Jermaine Franklin, an American Heavyweight best known for losing a tight Decision to Dillian Whyte before a more straightforward defeat to Anthony Joshua on the cards.

Those two fights came in a four month period between November 2022 and April 2023, but Franklin has not really been able to build on that experience. Losing both meant some lost momentum, but it is a disappointment to note that Jermaine Franklin has fought just three times in almost three years, albeit winning all three times.

Two of those wins were against unbeaten opponents, but this is a considerable step upwards and Franklin was pretty one-paced in his win over Ivan Dychko back in September.

He has promised a war, but Jermaine Franklin cannot rely on being the faster fighter in this one and Moses Itauma has shown he can close gaps and is very comfortable letting his hands go.

Frank Warren and those around Itauma would love to see him put some Rounds in the bank before stepping up towards the very World level. None of the last nine opponents have been able to hear the bell for the Third Round and that is why they have targeted Jermaine Franklin here.

However, it also feels a good opportunity for the connections to talk up Moses Itauma even further if he can do something that former World Title Challenger Dillian Whyte and World Champion Anthony Joshua have failed to do and actually Stop this opponent.

Jermaine Franklin has shown he can roll with the shots and is solid enough to take some big shots and steer out of trouble, but doing that against someone as ruthless as Moses Itauma is a big ask.

If he shows any sign of being hurt, Moses Itauma will step on the gas and he may be able to secure his latest Stoppage a little after the first two Rounds, but before the second half of the contest is set to begin.


At 36 years old, Nathan Heaney is looking for one last run and for a second win in a row as he looks to move towards a potential British Middleweight Title bid.

He is a former British Champion, but that Title was ripped away from him by Bradley Pauls.

Nathan Heaney was Stopped in a comeback fight in February 2025, but that result was later turned into a No Contest and he is going to be well backed by his huge supporter base when returning to the Co-Op Arena in Manchester.

His opponent may not be a former British Champion, but Gerome Warburton fought for the vacant Title last year and ultimately was Stopped by Kieron Conway.

Gerome Warburton has not really fought at that level prior to the defeat to Conway and this is another tough test for him, even if Nathan Heaney is past his best.

Neither is a huge puncher and the cards may be needed for Heaney to put a win on the board that will take him closer to a fight for the British Middleweight Title, which looks about the level he will reach at this latter stage of his career.


The aforementioned Brad Pauls is also on this deep card of domestic fighters looking to push onto the next level.

The 32 year old is a former British Champion and only relinquished his Title to Denzel Bentley on the cards, but the inactivity can be a problem when facing a hungry Shakiel Thompson.

Activity is the difference between the fighters after Thompson secured three wins in 2024 and two in 2025, while there is no doubt that the height and length work in favour of the unbeaten southpaw.

It is a step up in level against a former British Champion, but Shakiel Thompson has shown his power at the domestic level and can make a big statement here.


The chief support also looks a good one between Willy Hutchinson and Ezra Taylor.

It looks like it will be a competitive fight with Taylor protecting an unbeaten record, but stepping up his level against Willy Hutchinson who has the best win on the resume when getting the better of Craig Richards.

Losses to Lennox Clarke and Joshua Buatsi perhaps highlight a limit to where Hutchinson can go in his career, but he may still have a bit too much for Ezra Taylor.

Both fighters should have their moments, but Hutchinson may do enough to nick this one on the cards.



Sebastian Fundora vs Keith Thurman

The WBC will have to make a decision about their Light Middleweight World Title sooner than later if Sebastian Fundora continues to insist that he will be targeting the big money fights rather than other Champions or his mandatories.

Those involve taking on big name veterans and there have been reports that Sebastian Fundora has already explored a fight with Errol Spence Jr, who is expecting to return after a three year layoff in the summer.

Overlooking Keith Thurman would be a mistake, but the 37 year old has been incredibly inactive and you do have to wonder what he has in the tank- at his peak, Thurman would have been a real threat with his style, but it feels like it will be much harder to execute across the full Twelve Rounds of this Title fight and especially against the relentless pressure that Sebastian Fundora will bring.

Keith Thurman has had just two fights since his 2019 defeat to Manny Pacquiao and just three Rounds since 2022- this is not ideal preparation against an awkward, active fighter like Sebastian Fundora.

Three years ago Sebastian Fundora was being KO'd by Brian Mendoza, who is on the undercard, but he has bounced back with three wins in a row- he fought twice last year, including a second win over Tim Tszyu and the momentum is going to be tough to stop.

A competitive fight is expected, at least early, but Sebastian Fundora may be able to wear down and ultimately overwhelm Keith Thurman in this main event.

A Stoppage could come from a compassionate corner or referee and that is likely after Keith Thurman has spent his gas tank, which is some time after the bell for the Seventh Round is rung.


The aforementioned Brian Mendoza is on the chief support against once beaten Yoenis Tellez- the latter is continuing his rebuild following the defeat to Abass Baraou.

Brian Mendoza is 32 years old, but he has not been active enough.

If he had been, Mendoza could be in a position to earn an upset, but the likelihood is that Yoenis Tellez will do enough to take this one on the cards.


There is plenty of action scheduled for the undercard, but the other fight that stands out is the continued development of Yoenil Hernandez who is unbeaten in nine fights and has earned eight Stoppages.

Not only does he fight in the wide open Middleweight Division, but Hernandez has already got himself a solid Ranking with a number of the organisations.

It would be a pretty big upset if veteran Terrell Gausha is able to derail Hernandez, especially having not been in the ring for twelve months.

However, Gausha is very savvy and tough and he has given opponents something to think about- he was beaten on a Split Decision by Elijah Garcia last year and was outpointed by Carlos Adames for the WBC World Title in this Division.

That toughness could see him push Yoenil Hernandez and at least force the unbeaten contender to have to lean on the scorecards for the victory.

MY PICKS: Moses Itauma to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Nathan Heaney to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.60 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Shakiel Thompson to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Willy Hutchinson to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Sebastian Fundora to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Yoenil Hernandez to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.37 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2026: 7-15, - 9.97 Units (37 Units Staked, - 26.95% Yield)

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