Miami Tennis Day 10 Picks 2026 (Thursday 26th March)

So what can you say about that match?

Tommy Paul has Break Points in the opening two returns games of the deciding set and then FOUR Match Points in the Tie-Breaker, all in succession, and still manages to lose?

That result is kind of how the last few days have been going at the Miami Masters with the fine edges now working against the selections. It means instead of a proper bounce back fortnight after Indian Wells, the target is simply to head away with a positive return from the tournament and hoping the bounces begin to fall inside our lines, rather than just outside.

Matches are running down with four scheduled for Thursday and then just two on Friday- after that we have the Singles Finals played on Saturday for the WTA event and Sunday for the ATP event and then the entire Tour can settle down and get ready for some big clay court action.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: Winning matches is what will always matter most in any sports field, but the current levels being produced by Frances Tiafoe are going to have to be significantly improved if he is going to pose a threat to the World Number 2.

The last couple of wins here in Miami have been a touch fortunate, but Frances Tiafoe should be credited for finding a way to turn momentum around. He has dropped the middle set in each of the last two Rounds, but has rallied to win the decider and the World Number 20 will be playing with plenty of support behind him in the stands.

Frances Tiafoe has taken advantage of the Miami conditions and that has led to holds in 90% of service games played this week, although he has also struggled on the return.

The bigger points have landed in Tiafoe's favour and that has seen him come through the last couple of matches despite facing more Break Points than he has created.

All of this is well and good, but Frances Tiafoe will need to raise his levels considerably if he is going to upset Jannik Sinner.

The World Number 2 was tested by Alex Michelsen in the Fourth Round, but he was largely in control thanks to the dominance behind serve and that meant Sinner cannot have ever been really concerned about the position within the match. Over the last couple of years on the hard courts, Jannik Sinner has been one of the more dominant servers and his numbers in Miami make him a clear favourite to win the title on Sunday.

He may not have returned to the usual level in the Fourth Round win over Michelsen, but that did not stop Jannik Sinner from creating seven Break Points.

In the first two matches in Miami, Sinner had been much more consistent on the return of serve and he will be relatively comfortable within this match up having dominated Frances Tiafoe the last couple of times they have faced each other in competition.

Over eighteen months have passed since they last played one another, but Jannik Sinner will feel he can still predict what is to come from the American.

You can never dismiss Frances Tiafoe's ability to serve at a very high level when putting together that rhythm, but he could be under a lot of scoreboard pressure throughout this Quarter Final and the expectation is that Jannik Sinner will have a bit too much in the locker and that may allow him to cover this spread.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Francisco Cerundolo: It has been a very productive trip to Miami for Francisco Cerundolo and he will be keen for it to continue for at least another Round.

Very little strong hard court form had been presented by the World Number 19 over the last few years and Francisco Cerundolo had a 4-3 record in the surface in 2026 before the three wins already secured here.

The win over Daniil Medvedev is the stand out result achieved, but Francisco Cerundolo is facing an even higher Ranked opponent in this Quarter Final. His serve has proven to be a decent weapon in the conditions, but Cerundolo has really impressed with the level of the return and 45% of return games ending in a Break of serve across three wins is impressive.

None of that will be lost on Alexander Zverev who will have hoped to have been on the other side of the draw where he would have now been a big favourite to reach the Miami Final. Instead Zverev is going to have go through this tough Quarter Final opponent and then likely have another crack at trying to beat World Number 2 Jannik Sinner on Friday and it is a challenging position for the German player.

Alexander Zverev has only faced 3 Break Points in the three wins secured in Miami, but he has still spent some significant time on the court in the last two Rounds. Having a day off between the Fourth Round and the Quarter Final will help and the World Number 4 is going to be very comfortable with the serving numbers produced this season.

The returning numbers have not been as encouraging in the tournament, but Alexander Zverev has to feel there is more to come from himself.

He will take significant belief out of the fact he has won the last three matches against Francisco Cerundolo and all on the hard courts, including a very comfortable win at the Australian Open in January. The match late in 2025 was a more competitive affair in the Davis Cup, but Alexander Zverev may be the player with the majority of Break Points in this Quarter Final and that could see him edge past this spread, even if some may feel it is a game too high.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Coco Gauff-Karolina Muchova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)

Aryna Sabalenka-Elena Rybakina Over 22.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 16-14, + 1.30 Units (29 Units Staked, + 4.48% Yield)