NBA Playoffs 2026- NBA Finals Picks Game 1-7 (Wednesday 3rd June-Friday 19th June)

Twelve months ago, the 2025 NBA Finals began with the main focus for this writer being the narrow exit suffered by the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals.

During the course of an up and down regular season, the Knicks looked like a team that may come up short again and at 2-1 down in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs, the critics were sharpening the knives.

Instead of crumbling to a very early exit, the New York Knicks rallied and they are on a Playoff heater and now return to the NBA Finals for the first time in 27 years!

History has a tendency to repeat itself and so it is perhaps fitting that the New York Knicks will be facing the San Antonio Spurs, the team that beat the Knicks 4-1 in the 1999 NBA Finals.

While the Knicks have been crushing all who have stood in front of them, the San Antonio Spurs had to dig deep to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder, but it would be a poor excuse for a young team to speak about fatigue having last played on Saturday. There have been plenty of emotion put into reaching the NBA Finals, but inexperience is a bigger factor in the NBA Finals for this young core.

The NBA have to be really pleased with the Finals match up at a time when the Football World Cup is due to kick off in the United States- Victor Wembanyama is trying to become the face of the League and going up against a New York Knicks team that have given the entire City a huge energy boost should make for fascinating viewing for as long as these Finals last.

NBA Finals 2026- San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks (June 3rd-19th)

Wednesday 3rd June

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Game 1 Pick: Earlier in the season, the New York Knicks upset the San Antonio Spurs to win the NBA Cup and the two teams have fought their way through the Playoffs to set up a rematch for a much bigger prize.

Twelve years have passed since the San Antonio Spurs last won the NBA Championship, but the Draft Pick of Victor Wembanyama was seen as a pivotal moment in a new era. The Spurs have to be given credit for other choices they have made and this is a young group that could create a dynasty in the years ahead having shown what they can do when beating the defending Champions Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games in the Western Conference Finals.

That victory means the Spurs arrive at the NBA Finals with a lot of belief and it is San Antonio that will get to host the first two games of the Series.

One of the big questions for this young San Antonio team is how they will handle the pressure of playing in the NBA Finals after missing six straight Playoff seasons before this one. Some of those questions have been answered in beating the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder in the Playoffs, but the NBA Finals is considered a significantly different experience and some of the biggest names in NBA history have suffered in the first appearance on this stage.

Victor Wembanyama is the key for the Spurs and he cannot afford to struggle- big performances in the four wins secured over the Oklahoma City Thunder proved decisive and it is no surprise that the Thunder won the three games when Wemby was not at his best.

He can be a monster factor on both ends of the floor, but it is also important that the other players on the court contribute as the Spurs look to keep the New York Knicks waiting for a Championship.

Fifty-three years have passed since the New York Knicks last won the NBA Championship and twenty-seven since they last played in the NBA Finals.

Much of the intervening time has been a mess, but Leon Rose has to be given a lot of credit for the way he has constructed this roster- the signing of Jalen Brunson has proved to be a masterstroke, but deals to bring in the likes of Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have all strengthened the roster.

Throw in Mitchell Robinson, who should be recovered from a pinky injury that had some fearing he would miss some of the NBA Finals, and the likes of Landry Shamet and Miles McBride from the bench and this New York Knicks team will feel they can match up with anyone.

It helps that they have won eleven Playoff games in a row and by huge margins as they completed back to back sweeps of the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers. That means the team have had eight days of rest, while the San Antonio Spurs have had to play three games in that time, and the New York Knicks will be looking to make that rest count.

There is no doubting that there is going to be a lot of pressure on the New York Knicks, but they will feel they match up well with the San Antonio Spurs and the three regular season games between the teams back that up. The Knicks won twice and in good fashion, while they were only narrowly beaten in San Antonio and the New York team can make the adjustments within the game to change the flow of the momentum.

The Knicks do match up well with the San Antonio Spurs, but the same will be felt by the Western Conference Champions.

New York are well rested, but you do have to wonder if that will mean another slow start- yes, they beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 in the Eastern Conference Finals, but it should not be forgotten that the Knicks were 22 Points behind in the Fourth Quarter and Cleveland blew a big opportunity.

That was after another seven games had been needed in the previous Series and this San Antonio Spurs team have had a bit more recovery time compared with Cleveland.

Being at home in Game 1 is also a big advantage and this is a NBA Finals featuring two teams who will want to spot up shooters at the three point arc- if the Knicks are a little more rusty than rested, the San Antonio Spurs may take advantage and Game 1s of recent NBA Finals have been dominated by the home team.

Hosts who have also been asked to lay at least 4.5 points in NBA Finals have also been on a very strong run and the feeling is that the rhythm of the San Antonio Spurs may see them get into the lead and manage that much better than Cleveland did against the New York Knicks.

Friday 5th June

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Game 2 Pick: In the middle of the Third Quarter, it felt like the New York Knicks were struggling to find the right rhythm to get back into Game 1 of the NBA Finals and the long Playoff run of wins looked to be coming to an end.

However, this has proven to be a team that has forgotten how to lose and the Knicks continue to come up with big plays in the Fourth Quarter, much as they have all season.

Captain Clutch, Jalen Brunson, made the big plays late in the Fourth Quarter that ultimately helped the New York Knicks overcome a big deficit and take the 1-0 lead in the Series, but they will be expecting a big effort from the San Antonio Spurs in Game 2. All season the Spurs have bounced back when losing and this is a young core that have listened to the adjustments that have been made in the Playoff run so there will remain a confidence and a belief that they can turn things back around.

Mitch Johnson has done a fine job as Head Coach, but he will have had to listen to some criticism for the way he oversaw the Fourth Quarter- Dylan Harper was not given the minutes that his first half performance deserved and the likes of De'Aaron Fox really did not reach the level that you would expect of someone of his quality.

Even Victor Wembanyama was critical of his own effort in Game 1, but this is a player who has recovered and come out and made a statement after a poor showing and everyone associated with the Knicks will expect that on Friday night.

There was much to like about the way the Knicks kept battling, but New York will also believe there is much more to come from themselves- Brunson was immense late in the Fourth Quarter yet again, but overall he will believe he needs to be more efficient and everyone will be hoping that the early knee and ankle injuries suffered by the best player on the team are not going to become a problem.

Both teams struggled from the three point range, but having that Game 1 under the belt and limited rest between the first two games of the NBA Finals should mean shooters are in better rhythm. Open looks were not knocked down, but the Spurs and Knicks will continue trying to get to open shooters and expect themselves to be better.

Defensive adjustments may be made by the San Antonio Spurs to make Wembanyama more effective after allowing the New York Knicks to get into the paint with real success in Game 1. The Spurs will also look for a more efficient game from Wemby who was 6-21 in Game 1 and San Antonio are still in a position where hosts have tended to play well, as the Oklahoma City Thunder did in Game 2 after dropping the opener of the NBA Finals twelve months ago.

It is a League where narrow margins make up the bigger picture and the San Antonio Spurs struggled to make the shots presented to them- they will want to create more turnovers than they did in the second half of Game 1, while the Head Coach will likely shift up the Defensive schemes and turn to the hot hands a little quicker than he did in the opener.

Losing is a blow for the Spurs, but they are still capable of earning a split of the first two games, but this New York Knicks team is playing with momentum and a confidence that will be difficult to shake.

The expectation is that the Spurs will make the adjustments to bounce back and the three point shooters are likely to be better with the looks they get in Game 2 having missed some good chances in Game 1. All season San Antonio have done that and the outright winner continues to dominate in the NBA Playoffs in 2026 at a record rate.

Being wrong would not be difficult to accept as a fan, but the feeling is that everything will be tied up when these teams meet in a NBA Finals game at Madison Square Garden for the first time since 1999 on Monday.

Monday 8th June

San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks Game 3 Pick: For just the third time in the history of the NBA Finals, a road team has won the opening two games and the previous two times it happened, those teams went on to win the NBA Championship.

As you can imagine, excitement has soared through the roof in New York City after the home town Knicks returned with a 2-0 lead from the business trip to Texas.

Fifty-three years since winning the NBA Championship for the last time, the New York Knicks return home with a big lead and with two games to be played at Madison Square Garden. Even a split would be seen as a positive in the Series setting, but the Knicks have won thirteen Playoff games in a row and they do not want to lose any momentum.

Experience at key times in the Fourth Quarter have been key in both opening wins and it is certainly the inexperience of the San Antonio Spurs that has proved to be costly.

They had chances to win both opening games, but the Spurs have made critical, fatal mistakes at the worst times and Victor Wembanyama will have been hearing all about his over the last couple of days.

With the game tied, Wembanyama picked up the Defensive Rebound and the Spurs in a position to get the final shot of the game- the entire NBA world would have gasped when he inexplicably decided to throw the ball forward to Stephon Castle, who had already turned his head to get up the court and move into a position to open up the Offensive plays for the last shot of the game.

Victor Wembanya's turnover proved to be decisive with Jalen Brunson picking up the ball, earning the foul and sinking one of two Free Throws to help the New York Knicks into the lead. Even then, Wemby had a chance to win the game for the Spurs, but missed a decent look at the basket and San Antonio travel looking to at least earn one more shot at home.

Game 3 is huge for the Spurs- no NBA team has won a Playoff Series from 0-3 behind, but the young team will have to find a way to dig in and cool what is going to be a raucous Madison Square Garden crowd.

It is a big ask as they look to make adjustments, but the Spurs will still believe they have played well enough to have found a way to win both games.

The New York Knicks will be confident as long as they are within striking range in the Fourth Quarter, but this is going to be a potentially pressurised environment with the team able to reach out and touch the trophy. They have shown so much character and conviction in the play throughout this post-season run and the Knicks continue to defy the odds, but they are favourites in Game 3 and that is going to bring a different kind of pressure on the team.

Jalen Brunson has found some big buckets late, but the Knicks still need more from him, while the way they have played on the Defensive side of the court continues to impress.

The Knicks are capable, but so are the Spurs and the best way to approach Game 3 is backing the under to hit for a third time in the 2026 Finals.

In recent seasons, the under has been the big winner in NBA Finals games and both the Knicks and Spurs have shown they can be very effective on that side of the court, which has made life tougher for the shooters as they continue to fight through contested lanes.

There have been stretches of misses throughout the first two games of the NBA Finals and that may be the best approach to take to Game 3 as the Series shifts to the East Coast.

Wednesday 10th June

San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks Game 4 Pick: The energy around New York City had been electric after winning both games on the road in the NBA Finals, but that perhaps contributed to a few nerves for the home town Knicks early in Game 3.

Ir was the first NBA Finals game played at Madison Square Garden in twenty-seven years and that meant a huge increase in ticket prices- some have suggested that the raw fans being priced out contributed to a less than raucous atmosphere inside The Garden and allowed the San Antonio Spurs to settle in during this business trip as they look to drag themselves back into the Series.

Even then, it was another close, competitive game and that has to be the expectation around Game 4, which feels hugely pivotal.

If the Knicks win, a 3-1 lead looks like one that will lead to the end of the fifty-three year wait to win the NBA Championship.

However, a Spurs win not only levels up the NBA Finals, but it likely sees the oddsmakers shift back into making San Antonio favourite.

One day of rest between Game 3 and Game 4 does make things challenging, especially for the San Antonio Spurs who asked the key contributors to do some heavy lifting on Monday to ensure they were not being asked to become the first team in NBA history to win a best of seven Series from 3-0 behind. That does mean fatigue is a potential issue against a New York Knicks team who have a bit more depth that Head Coach Mike Brown feels he can rely upon to make important contributions.

The energy will be a little more nervy around the New York Knicks after seeing the thirteen game Playoff winning run ended and it is important to make a more decisive start.

Mike Brown has also been highly critical of the officiating in the last couple of games and that is something that could be on the mind of those taking charge in Game 4. There was a huge disparity in Free Throws attempted and the Knicks will look to attack what may be a young, slightly fatigued team that put so much into Monday night.

Game 3 comfortably moved past the total. but the Fourth Quarter only featured 43 points combined as tiredness of both physical and mental nature perhaps began to take its toll.

That could carry over into Game 4 and backing the under is the play in what looks a very tough game from which to pick a winner.

Saturday 13th June

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Pick: Big comebacks are a part of any sporting field, but when they happen in the Finals of any of those sports, they go down in history.

Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals will sit alongside the New England Patriots recovery from 28-3 down in the Super Bowl as the most improbable of comebacks and arguably the New York Knicks win over San Antonio Spurs surpasses anything that has come before.

Trailing by 29 points and looking lost at both ends of the court, the New York Knicks created the biggest comeback in NBA Finals history to steal Game 4 from under the noses of the San Antonio Spurs and move to one win from a first Championship since 1973.

For the second time in the NBA Finals, the San Antonio Spurs have to be wondering how they have managed to lose a game in the final seconds, although this one will feel worse than Game 2 considering the lead that had been built.

De'Aaron Fox will have to accept the criticism that has come his way- the turnovers in the Third and Fourth Quarter were pretty poor, but it is the abject decision making from a veteran to try and score a basket with the Spurs up by a point and with the shot clock off that has garnered most attention. The absolute play is to drag the ball out and get the Knicks to foul, but Fox made a ridiculously poor choice and ultimately that was a key reason the Spurs ended up falling.

However, the blame cannot be attached to one play and one player- the Spurs had a huge lead but scored just 30 points in the second half having put 76 points on the board in the first half. Poor clock management and a lack of conviction in trying to get to the rim against a team in foul trouble cannot be ignored, while Head Coach Mitch Johnson has to be questioned for the lack of Timeouts used to try and refocus the team as the lead began to dwindle.

Of course you have to credit the New York Knicks for fighting back- that makes them 5-3 in the last two post-seasons when trailing by 20 points, but like the Game 1 win in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks needed help from the visiting team.

Never giving up is a real testament to the character of the players, but no one is taking anything for granted just yet and each of the four games could have easily swung the other way.

Two days of rest between games means physical fatigue is less of a concern, but you do have to wonder how much the San Antonio Spurs have left as they return home needing to win three games to win the NBA Championship. At 2-2 you would have made them favourites, but the entire situation of Game 4 means this young team are going to have grow up really quickly if they are going to force a return to New York City and Madison Square Garden.

It is really hard to factor how the Spurs are feeling, although they bounced back from blowing Game 2 in disastrous fashion to win Game 3 on the road.

You have to expect an early push from the Spurs, but the New York Knicks continue to show that they will not be cowed by a quick punch and instead will have plenty left in the tank to fight back. The Knicks did put in a huge second half effort to win Game 4 and they will also have to deal with what could be an emotional letdown and so picking a side is perhaps not as easy as it may feel.

For some the momentum is such with the Knicks that the points being given to them is very appealing, but the better approach may be going to back to the under market.

It was an incredibly fortunate winner in Game 4 considering how well the Spurs shot in the first half, but that was a level that was always going to be hard to sustain.

The expectation is that better clock management is going to be the key for both teams and that may help produce a shortened game, while the officials have been criticised for some of the fouls that have been given.

There is every chance that the NBA Finals is concluded on Saturday, but the Spurs will have something to say about that and two teams playing after the emotions of Wednesday night may not be able to combine to surpass this points total. Both have been very good Defensively and been able to slow the other down for stretches and that could be the case in Game 5 with three of the first four games in the NBA Finals all finishing below the total set.

MY PICKS: 03/06 San Antonio Spurs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

05/06 San Antonio Spurs - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

08/06 New York Knicks-San Antonio Spurs Under 215.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

10/06 New York Knicks-San Antonio Spurs Under 216.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

13/06 San Antonio Spurs-New York Knicks Under 216.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

NBA Finals: 01-3, - 2.09 Units (4 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)

Conference Finals: 9-2, + 6.24 Units (11 Units Staked, + 56.73% Yield)

Second Round: 5-8, - 3.45 Units (13 Units Staked, - 26.54% Yield)

First Round: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

NBA Playoff Picks 2025- NBA Finals (Thursday 5th June-Sunday 22nd June)

Plans were being made to at least be in New York City IF the Knicks were to finally make it back into the NBA Finals, but the Indiana Pacers had other ideas and there are already some big changes being made in Gotham to get their team over the line.

Credit has to be given to the Pacers who reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year and who have moved through the Playoffs with some big wins over a former, recent Champion, the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference and then getting the better of the New York Knicks for a second year in a row.

They look a potentially dangerous team and one that could have more to come, but they are facing the top Seed in the Western Conference and an Oklahoma City Thunder team that have looked the one to beat all season.

The Denver Nuggets almost secured the upset over the Thunder in the Second Round, but Oklahoma City have used that to fuel them and the crushing win over the Minnesota Timberwolves means they enter the Finals as a significant favourite.

It may not be the NBA Finals that some of the television executives would have hoped for, but there is a potential for it to be a fun Series with the way both the Pacers and Thunder approach their Basketball.

After a couple of strong Playoff runs for the NBA Picks, 2025 has proven to be more challenging. The Conference Finals selections were in a terrible position to open, but there is some momentum from turning things around and hopefully the NBA Finals Picks can at least turn a profit to round out the season.

All selections from the NBA Finals will be placed in this one thread.

NBA Finals 2025- Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder (June 5th-22nd)

Thursday 5th June

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: The NBA Finals features two teams where both would have expected to be taking part in this Series, but only one that the public would have believed in.

For much of the last eighteen months, the Oklahoma City Thunder have looked like a developing team that were ready to move from potential into Champions.

However, they were upset in the Second Round of the Playoffs last season and the same almost happened in 2025- this time the Thunder found a way to progress in Game 7 and the comfortable Series win over the Minnesota Timberwolves means they will go in as favourites to win the NBA Finals.

Fans, and the layers, have believed in Oklahoma City all season and they were amongst the market leaders even before the first tip-off.

On the other side, the Indiana Pacers may have felt overlooked by outsiders and they were considered an underdog even when the Playoffs began with the likes of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics seen as much more likely NBA Finalists. The Pacers had experience though having reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 and this is a team and a Coaching staff that have full belief in what they are trying to do.

The Pacers have dropped just four games in beating Milwaukee, Cleveland and the New York Knicks in the Playoff run and the Offensive power has been really impressive. There is a depth to the rotation that makes them dangerous and this will give Indiana fans real hope that they can upset the odds and win the NBA Championship.

Key players will have to perform at a top level and the Pacers are also going to be tested by an Oklahoma City rotation that can match their depth from the bench. There is no doubt that the Thunder can go score for score if needed, but the real difference between the teams may be on the Defensive side of the court where Oklahoma City have played at an elite level.

Unlike the teams that have been beaten by the Pacers, the Oklahoma City Thunder will feel they have the players that can rotate around and really put the clamp on this strong Offensive unit.

They did meet twice in the regular season and the Indiana Pacers will take encouragement from the fact they scored 111 and 114 points in those games, although they lost both, which underlines how tough it may be to find the balance needed to beat the top Seed coming out of the Western Conference.

The game hosted by the Thunder was played as recently as the end of March and resulted in a 19 point win for the home team.

Oklahoma City are being asked to cover a big number in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, but they are in a position where recent hosts in the NBA Finals have produced dominant wins. In the last eleven, those hosts have a 9-2 record against the spread and have won by an average of over 13 points per game, while home favourites being asked to lay at least 4.5 points have a 21-10-2 record against the spread since 2013.

It is a big number for Game 1 considering what we have seen from the Indiana Pacers on the Offensive side of the court, but it does feel like the Thunder are significantly better and that could play out to lay an early marker down for the entire NBA Finals.

Sunday 8th June

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: For long periods of Game 1, it felt like the Oklahoma City Thunder were in complete control and almost certainly going to be picking up the win.

However, they were not quite able to kick clear of the Indiana Pacers and teams have found out throughout the post-season that allowing the Eastern Conference Champions to stick around has been very dangerous. They have already had a number of historical comebacks during the Playoff run and the Indiana Pacers became the first team to be trailing by at least 9 points with three minutes left in a Conference Finals game and still manage to secure the win.

All credit has to be given to a team that have quality, but also a depth and balance that has proven to be too much for so many to handle. There is a real belief in one another, which means looking to find the open man no matter who it is, and the three point shooting continues to be a solid pathway to keeping Indiana within range of striking.

Tyrese Haliburton made the headlines for his game-winning shot, but he will feel there is so much room for improvement after a game in which he had 14 Points, 10 Rebounds and 6 Assists.

The Offensive balance mentioned is underlined by the fact that none of the Indiana players managed to score 20 points, but six players all had at least 10 points. Winning a game on the road without someone dominating and with the heavy turnovers will have given Indiana so much belief and the pressure will have shifted onto the Oklahoma City Thunder having lost home advantage and desperate to avoid being in a 0-2 hole when travelling to Indiana next week.

The Thunder will be tasked with making adjustments and that may begin with a more consistent three point shooting game and just resetting the Defensive schemes. They began really well, but Indiana were not stopped in the second half and that ultimately proved to be an issue when the Thunder's own Offensive firepower lessened.

Indiana have to be respected having led 2-0 in each of the three Playoff Series that have been won and they will be focused as they look to take a firm grip of the NBA Finals.

However, hosts have tended to play well in Game 2 of the Conference Finals and those that have lost Game 1 of any Playoff Series have largely bounced back with big wins. The Pacers avoided that fate when beating the Cleveland Cavaliers for a second time in a row in the Second Round, but the Oklahoma City Thunder crushed the Denver Nuggets having been upset in Game 1 in the same Round.

Over the last four years, those teams are 21-7 straight up and the Thunder have shown all season that they can rally even after a disappointing result.

There has to be a respect for a Pacers team that have played hard over the last month and during a 2025 NBA Playoffs where so many big leads have evaporated. However, you cannot dismiss the Thunder after a single game and they may just rally for a strong win in Game 2 in front of the home fans.

Wednesday 11th June

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick: There won't have been much surprise about the fact that the Oklahoma City Thunder put up a big response to dropping Game 1 of the NBA Finals and the 16 point win in Game 2 was even more comfortable than the final score might have suggested.

The momentum may have swung back to the Western Conference Champions, and favourites to win the NBA Championship, but the Indiana Pacers have responded to setbacks right through the NBA Playoff run.

Ultimately the Pacers will be returning home feeling like they have achieved their most immediate goal and that is taking away home advantage from the Oklahoma City Thunder. This is the first time in the post-season that the Indiana Pacers are not leading 2-0 after the first two games, which is going to be challenging, but there is a real feeling amongst the Pacers players and staff that there are many adjustments they can still make.

With that in mind, the 1-1 score after two games is pretty good for Indiana who should have lost both games, but continue to show they can rally at key moments.

However, the adjustments that they need to make are clear and the Pacers are still in 'prove it' mode as they look to get the team on track in Game 3. Slow starts have been a feature of the opening two games, but the Pacers have not allowed the Oklahoma City Thunder to pull too far away and they will be expecting role players to produce much better being back at home.

Tyrese Haliburton took the headlines for his game winning shot in Game 1, but he has only scored 31 points in the two games played and the Pacers have yet to have a single player reach 20 points. This has to change, as Haliburton has acknowledged, while the slow starts also cannot continue with Indiana being forced to fight out of holes.

They scored 45 first half points in Game 1 and just 41 points in Game 2, but the Pacers have found a stronger rhythm in the second half of both of those games. Unfortunately for Indiana, they were down in a deep hole in Game 2 and could not really force their way back into that one as a contest and so that is something Rick Carlisle and the team have to address if they are going to find a way back to Oklahoma City either 3-1 ahead or, at worse, at 2-2.

Indiana's depth has impressed, but those bench players have not been as effective as they need and there is some pressure on the starters to come out and fire. The Pacers have been in decent shape when the starting five have been on the court, but they just need to make some adjustments to try and put some pressure on a Thunder Defensive unit that have impressed all season.

It is tough to oppose Oklahoma City, but this is a team that have had more challenges when playing on the road and the Indiana Pacers should still have plenty of belief in what they are trying to do. With the home crowd behind them, Indiana should be able to make a faster start and some of the bench players should be more comfortable being back in their own Arena.

At the same time, perhaps the Thunder bench is not as effective now they are operating in a hostile environment and so the points on offer with the home team look appealing.

Teams that have been blown out in the NBA Finals have struggled in their next game, but that was not the case in the 2024 Series and the Indiana Pacer can bounce back. They can take comfort from the fact that teams that have won Game 2 have followed up with a 4-8 record against the spread in Game 3, while it cannot be ignored that the Oklahoma City Thunder are 0-7 against the spread as the road favourite in the NBA Playoffs this season, despite being 4-3 straight up in those games.

The Pacers are 6-2 straight up at home in the Playoff run in 2025 and they are 1-1 against the spread when set as the home underdog.

There are likely going to be moments when the Thunder look like they can pull away for another big win, but the Indiana Pacers have shown they can make the adjustments before and during games when things have gone against them. Those have seen the Pacers surprise at times and they may be able to keep this one competitive and potentially pull the upset outright.

Friday 13th June

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick: There may have been some fans disappointed with the match up in the NBA Finals, but the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will not be worrying about that.

In reality the disappointment is really with the Eastern Conference Champions and the fact that the Indiana Pacers were largely outplayed in the opening two games backed up those criticisms, even if they were returning home at 1-1. The layers also believed that the Oklahoma City Thunder were going to roll past the Indiana Pacers having recovered from the heartbreaking Game 1 loss, but this is an Indiana team who have consistently produced and who have continued to defy the odds.

They were much better in Game 3 compared with the two road games and the Indiana Pacers won as the underdog and are 2-1 ahead in the NBA Finals. Game 4 is also being played in their home building and the Indiana Pacers will not be too concerned about being set as a big underdog again as they look to make use of the day of rest between games.

A Series that has little rest time would benefit the Indiana Pacers who looked to have worn down the Oklahoma City Thunder at the end of Game 3.

However, this young Thunder team deserve a lot of respect as being one that has consistently bounced back from setbacks all season and you have to believe that some adjustments will be made. The starting players may need to play a few more points after the bench and role players predictably struggled in a hostile environment and the Oklahoma City Thunder will look to clean up their own game with too many turnovers proving to be their undoing.

The concern for the Western Conference Champions is that the Indiana role players really showed up to the party in Game 3 and the likes of Tyrese Haliburton produced their best performance of the Finals. Being back at home will help them too and a real worry for the Thunder is they lost a game in which the Pacers hit just 9 three pointers.

Most would have predicted that a heavy scoring day from beyond the arc would be needed if the Indiana Pacers were going to win games and so managing to do that in Game 3 without makes the Pacers very dangerous.

They will continue to push the tempo and look to gas out the Thunder, as the Pacers have done to so many of the opponents faced already in this post-season and it is difficult to oppose Indiana with this amount of points being given to them.

As mentioned ahead of Game 3, the Oklahoma City Thunder's record as a road favourite in the Playoffs has to be a worry with the team dropping to 4-4 straight up and 0-8 against the spread. At the same time the Pacers improved to 7-2 straight up and they are 2-1 against the spread as the home underdog.

In recent years, teams who won Game 3 have a poor record at covering the spread in Game 4 (1-4 against the spread) and home teams are just 3-8 against the spread. We have seen the Thunder bounce back impressively from setbacks and those trends are going against the selection, but this Indiana Pacers team are unlikely to be bothered about a day of rest between games and they have the tempo and intensity to avoid the blowout and, potentially, earn the outright upset for a third time in the NBA Finals in 2025.

Monday 16th June

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Pick: Two full days of rest has been given to the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals and some of that time will have been spent thinking about what may have been, especially for Indiana.

Before the NBA Finals started, Indiana would likely have accepted being at 2-2 and with every chance of winning a first NBA Championship.

However, the way we have got this scoreline will sting considering Indiana had been leading by 4 points with time ticking down in the Fourth Quarter of Game 4 and with a 3-1 lead coming over the horizon. They scored just one point from that moment and some clutch basketball from the Oklahoma City Thunder, notably Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, helped them overcome the deficit and almost miraculously end up covering the spread.

They were helped by Bennedict Mathurin, who missed three Free Throws with the game in the balance at the end of the Fourth Quarter and then, inexplicably, made two fouls before the ball was inbounded to offer the Thunder a Free Throw AND possession.

Ultimately that was the clincher for the Thunder who did not play well in Game 4, but who will have taken a lot of belief out of the fact that they found a way to win.

It was perhaps surprising to see Indiana wilt in the final three minutes- they have been able to wear down so many opponents in those last few minutes, but this time it was the Pacers who struggled.

Both teams will benefit from having the days off to just recharge flagging batteries and that should see Game 5 improve in terms of the Offensive performances.

There is no doubt that the Thunder and Pacers are playing at a very high level Defensively, but there are some top playmakers on both sides of the court and those players will want to make a big impact in what feels like a pivotal game. With the Series at 2-2, this is a big opportunity for someone to step up and begin to write their name in NBA history and that pressure can either make, or break, a player.

All of that pressure feels like it is on the shoulders of SGA for the Thunder and Tyrese Haliburton for the Pacers and both should log significant minutes as the Head Coaches perhaps begin to lose faith in some of the role players and bench to keep their team alive.

Out of the two teams, the Thunder looked much more tired in Game 3 and 4, but late buckets turned the tide in their favour.

Even then, it feels like they are being asked to lay a lot of points in this Game 5.

The number is not as high as the first two games hosted by the Oklahoma City Thunder, but it is still significant and the Pacers have refused to go away easily in any game played.

Hosts favoured by 4.5 points have a strong record in the NBA Finals, but the Thunder are 1-1 against the spread in the spot this season.

They will feel the role players are going to be more comfortable at home and adjustments may be made to give Alex Caruso more playing time having been so important to the turnaround in Game 4. That makes Oklahoma City dangerous and the Pacers are going to have to mentally recover from what they will feel was a big chance blown last time out.

However, resiliency is what the Pacers have displayed all season and they can keep this one competitive with that rest helping the players recover. This is a team that has refused to go away all post-season and this may be too many points being given to them barring any more late game mental check outs as they produced in Game 4.

Thursday 19th June

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers Game 6 Pick: This Pick comes out a little later than others during the NBA post-season and that is largely to get over the frustration of coming up 3 points short of back to back winners.

Instead, late turnovers or missed Free Throws have seen the selections go 0-2 and you do have to wonder how the Indiana Pacers can keep fighting through the adversity of giving games away. Instead of being ahead in the NBA Finals, like they perhaps should be, the Pacers return home for Game 6 looking to stave off elimination and the end of the season.

Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard have to be highlighted for late game blunders in Game 4 and Game 5 that have effectively cost the Pacers big opportunities. They were just 4 points behind in Game 4 and with every chance of rallying when Mathurin missed two Free Throws and then committed two fouls to allow the Thunder to pull away with possession of the ball.

In Game 5 the Pacers had rallied to within 2 points of the rocking Thunder with eight minutes left to play, but Nembhard was a big contributor to a run of four straight turnovers and that ultimately ended their hopes.

Those role players may take on added importance in Game 6 with Tyrese Haliburton struggling with a right calf issue- the top Indiana player has stated he will do all he can to suit up, but he was struggling in practice and it may be up to others to step up and try and take over this game and make sure the Pacers have one more shot at winning their maiden NBA Championship.

For Oklahoma City it will be a case of wanting more of the same from Game 5 having looked the stronger team for much of the night, but still struggling to put away the Pacers. This time they did not allow the fightback at the beginning of the Fourth Quarter to distract them and the Thunder were grateful for a huge night from Jalen Williams.

The key is to continue to create the turnovers and that may be something the Thunder can do if Tyrese Haliburton is unable to go for stretches of this game.

They have not been easy to trust as the road favourite, but the Thunder are 1-1 against the spread in the two games hosted by Indiana in the NBA Finals. Momentum is with them and the last seven teams that have had a chance to close out the Finals in Game 6 have produced a 6-1 record against the spread.

After what we have seen from the Pacers throughout the post-season, and even in the last couple of games, this feels like a lot of points to be laying with the road team. However, the uncertainty about Haliburton may just have shifted things in Oklahoma City's favour even if the Indiana role players are likely to be better at home.

Sunday 22nd June

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 Pick: Nine years have passed since the last Game 7 in the NBA Finals, but a poor display from the Oklahoma City Thunder has opened the door for another 'winner takes all' contest this Sunday.

They will be extremely disappointed with the entire performance- the role players struggled, turnovers absolutely crushed them and then a substandard display of shooting the three ball allowed the Indiana Pacers to surge clear and ultimately blow out the Western Conference Champions.

It has been a fun NBA Finals to watch, but it has been a huge frustration for the NBA Picks.

After blowing back to back covers by just three combined points, the Indiana Pacers had the perfect Game 6 performance.

Role players who had made critical mistakes in the Fourth Quarter in Game 4 and Game 5 played brilliantly in Game 6 and the momentum is now back with the Pacers.

However, it is a very tough Game 7 to call with the 'x factor' regarding turnovers almost impossible to call- the team that plays the cleanest game is likely going to win, but you can toss a coin and decide which of these two are most likely to do that in a hugely pressurised situation.

The Defensive schemes have been pretty good on both sides of the court and the adjustments made by the Indiana Pacers may just give them the edge, although the layers are well aware of the pressures on Game 7 with the total points line dropped by a huge amount between Game 6 and this one.

Picking a winner is not easy and you can make the case for both teams- the Oklahoma City Thunder have been a lot better at home than on the road, and they have controlled large parts of the three games they have hosted. Despite that, the Thunder have not really been able to put the Indiana Pacers away, although the spread is not nearly as high as the previous three games hosted by Oklahoma City.

It has been a very difficult post-season, the worst one since the Bubble of 2020, and so another disappointing late capitulation cannot be ruled out for the selection. The lean has to be with the Indiana Pacers, who have room for improvement from Game 6 even after the blowout win, and they have shown they can hang around.

Role players have to be careful with the ball and not kill the Indiana run with their turnovers as they did in Game 5 and it would not surprise anyone if the Thunder score a late bucket to win by 8 points, especially with the way things have bounced for the selections made.

However, the Indiana Pacers are a team that have fought hard throughout the Playoffs and one more big push should see them in a very competitive game and potentially pulling the outright upset.

The last three NBA Finals that have gone into a Game 7 have been won by the team that was victorious in Game 6, while teams that have won the previous game by double digits have produced a 8-4-1 record against the spread between Game 5 and Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

This all suggests Indiana can potentially win this one outright, but the recommendation is take the points and hope the late turnovers go in the right direction.

MY PICKS: 05/06 Oklahoma City Thunder - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

08/06 Oklahoma City Thunder - 10.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

11/06 Indiana Pacers + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

13/06 Indiana Pacers + 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

16/06 Indiana Pacers + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

19/06 Oklahoma City Thunder - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

22/06 Indiana Pacers + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

NBA Finals: 2-4, - 2.24 Units (6 Unit Stakeds, - 37.33% Yield)

Conference Finals: 5-5, - 0.45 Units (10 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Second Round: 8-14-1, - 6.64 Units (23 Units Staked, - 28.87% Yield)

First Round: 20-19, - 0.72 Units (39 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs 2024- NBA Finals Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks (June 6th-23rd)

The NBA PlayOffs have had some drama and some very good Series, but the Conference Finals were a massive disappointment.

The East was won in a sweep, while the Western Conference only needed a Game 5 to determine the winning team.

Yes, there was a disappointing lack of drama, but the good news is that we have a NBA Finals that features the two best teams from the last six weeks.

There is some pressure on both the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks, but the stories before the Series has begun has set the table and the two teams have performed at a very high level.

Unsurprisingly the Boston Celtics will head into the NBA Finals, as they have been for a long time, but ruling out the Dallas Mavericks would be a mistake having come through as the underdog in each of the last two Series against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves. They are being led by a star looking to move into the next echelon, while the Boston Celtics have two players still looking to prove themselves by finally being able to call themselves NBA Champions.

It should mean a fun Series for as long as it lasts.

Much like last year, the first two Rounds produced a decent return for the NBA Picks, but the Conference Finals stumped me.

That is something to learn from when the PlayOffs come back around in twelve months time.

The entire NBA Finals coverage will be placed in this thread.

NBA Finals 2024- Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks (June 6th-23rd)

Thursday 6th June

Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: The NBA Finals begin on Thursday, although the wait between the end of the Conference Finals and the start of the Championship Series has not been ideal.

The schedulers cannot be blamed for that- not many would have tipped both Conference Final Series to have been as one-sided as they turned out to be.

It does mean plenty of rest for the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks ahead of the NBA Finals and that is also good news for the injured players who missed out on the Conference Finals.

Kristaps Porzingis is one beneficiary and he is set to suit up for the Boston Celtics in Game 1, which is a huge boost for the team. They have played well even without him, but the Celtics know they are a different beast with Porzingis in the starting lineup.

He will not be lacking for motivation against one of his former teams, but the Dallas Mavericks will also be suiting up a player with something to prove.

Kyrie Irving might not be the superstar for the Dallas Mavericks, but he has backed up Luka Doncic impressively in his time with the team. His play has been elevated in the post-season and Irving will be ready for Game 1 and the passionate Boston crowd that are going to try and rattle him out of his focus.

After winning a Championship with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Kyrie Irving made a big splash by moving to Boston, but his two years with the team were underwhelming. The Celtics decided the team would grow more effectively without him and there was little love lost between the player and the team when he moved to Brooklyn.

Some believed that Kyrie Irving was a pretty poor fit in most places after failing with the Nets, but he has found a good home in Dallas and playing second fiddle to Luka Doncic might aid him.

At the same time, Irving will arrive in this Series with a point to prove and that certainly makes the NBA Finals that much more fascinating. He has played well in the post-season and Dallas are going to need him when facing this Boston Celtics team that could be back at full health and who have shown they can beat you in very different ways.

Defensively they have not played as well as hoped, but the return of Porzingis gives Boston a boost on this side of the court and the Celtics can make it pay in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Players like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are playing with the pressure to show they are able to fulfil the potential they have long held, but the supporting cast have been key for Boston. They will likely give Doncic plenty to think about when he is in the uncomfortable position of having to Defend against Derrick White or Jrue Holiday and the depth of this Celtics team is impressive.

Game 1 home favourites are on a strong run in the NBA Finals with the last ten ending 8-2 against the spread, while teams favoured by more than 4.5 points at home are 19-10-1 against the spread in the last thirty in that position.

The Celtics struggled for covers in the Eastern Conference Finals and this Dallas Mavericks team have played at a high level and been able to hang around in games. However, the return of Kristaps Porzingis and the crowd being fired up by seeing Kyrie Irving on the other side of the court feels like it will pump enough energy behind the home players to see them move into a 1-0 lead with a cover of this relatively wide line.

Sunday 9th June

Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: Despite being cleared to take part in Game 1, some fans of the Boston Celtics might have been a little concerned that Kristaps Porzingis was only going to feature from the bench.

Those concerns dissipated very quickly after Porzingis moved onto the court and he showed he is more than ready to take part in the NBA Finals and just gives the Boston Celtics a completely different look and feel.

They might have swept the Indiana Pacers in the Conference Finals, but Boston were made to work very hard and that meant there were one or two doubters about this time heading into the NBA Finals. However, the return of Kristaps Porzingis makes them that much tougher to defend and the Dallas Mavericks did not have many answers in a Game 1 in which they were down by 29 points during the First Half.

Luka Doncic did his best in the Third Quarter to rally the Mavericks and helped the team reduce that deficit to just 8 points, but the little support from those around him ultimately proved too much for Dallas and Doncic.

Adjustments will be made by Head Coach Jason Kidd and there may even be changes made to the starting lineup to make sure they can close on the Boston three point shooters. It was not a lights out display from beyond the arc, but the Celtics live and die by the three pointer and they threw up 42 of those in Game 1, which is 15 more than the Dallas Mavericks, while Boston also landed 16-7 compared with their visitors.

The reality is it has been tough to stop all season and especially with Porzingis on the court and the bigger adjustment for Dallas may be trying to match the output. They will certainly need more from Kyrie Irving, who heard the chants from a fanbase that have little love lost for him.

Boston felt like they had decided to try and lock down on the top two Dallas players and force others to beat them and that has been a concern for this Mavericks team. They have found a way to get the role players going in the previous Series, but doing so against the Boston Celtics is another challenge and the Dallas Mavericks may struggle to make this one much closer.

It should almost certainly be more competitive after Boston blew open a big lead by the middle of the Second Quarter, but getting much closer at the end of the game will be tough for the Mavericks.

Teams who have been blown out in the NBA Finals have followed up with a 9-18-2 record against the spread in the next outing over the last twenty-nine occasions when a double digit defeat has been suffered.

As mentioned in the Game 1 preview, teams favoured by at least 4.5 points at home are now 20-10-1 against the spread after Boston covered last time out, while home teams are 5-2-1 against the spread in the last eight Game 2 NBA Finals outings.

My concern is that Boston dropped Game 2 at home in the First Round Series and in the Conference Semi Final Series, but they avoided that fate in the Eastern Conference Finals. We have seen how much fight and determination this Dallas Mavericks team have and so they have to be respected, but the Celtics will feel that much stronger with Kristaps Porzingis back and they can back up the Game 1 win with another strong showing.

Wednesday 12th June

Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: It was a much better effort from the Dallas Mavericks, but they were not able to sustain things and the Boston Celtics had moved clear in the Fourth Quarter before holding on for a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals.

Both wins were at home so the Dallas Mavericks will make the trek back to Texas knowing that this Series is not beyond them, although Game 3 is effectively a 'must win' situation for them.

There was more support for Luka Doncic in Game 2 compared with Game 1, and he had eleven Assists compared with a single Assist. The whole starting lineup managed to get into double digits in terms of points, but the lack of depth was an issue for the Dallas Mavericks, while the continued struggles to hit consistently from the three point arc has proven to be fatal to the chances of earning an upset.

Being back at home should help the role players have a more consistent impact, but the Mavericks have not been dominant here in their run to the NBA Finals. This has to be a concern for Dallas and they will be looking to make a few more adjustments to make sure the players around Luka Doncic are able to have an impact on Game 3.

With a 2-0 lead, you might be forgiven for thinking the Boston Celtics are going to be extremely happy, but this is a team that knows it has yet to really perform to the level they have come to expect from themselves. They were very good in the First Quarter of Game 1, but the Celtics have not really imposed themselves on the NBA Finals and they have struggled to hit their three pointers as they would have liked.

Despite that, Boston have really ramped things up Defensively and they have made it clear that they are going to try and limit Doncic's impact as a playmaker. He has been allowed to make his own shots, but the Celtics are trying to make sure that others are not able to beat them and ultimately it has worked out as planned.

The Celtics have been dominant on the road in the post-season and that makes them dangerous, but Game 3s have tended to land in favour of the hosts and it makes this line a tough one to call. Boston have been the better team, but the Dallas Mavericks have to be highly motivated returning home and it would not surprise anyone if this came down to the final two minutes.

The trend that may continue to pay out is the 'under' with the total line dropping 3.5 points from Game 1.

The 'under' is 21-11-1 against the spread in the last thirty-three games in the NBA Finals and that includes in both games in this NBA Finals. Kristaps Porzingis is expected to be available for the Celtics and has offered a punch from the bench, but shooting has been a struggle for both teams and that may continue.

Friday 14th June

Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: There was a feeling prior to the start of the NBA Finals that the depth of the Boston Celtics would prove to be too much, although plenty of 'experts' picked the Dallas Mavericks to make this a very competitive Series.

After coming through the Western Conference impressively, the Mavericks would have felt confident, but all of their weaknesses have been on display as they have slipped 3-0 behind the Eastern Conference Champions.

Luka Doncic will be looking to rally the troops, but he has been on the end of plenty of sharp criticism after the Game 3 defeat.

His lack of Defensive effort has been the main talking point and you have to believe Doncic is going to have something to prove. It was perhaps ironic that he fouled out of the Game 3 defeat when trying to actually get his body between the ball and the basket, but it came at a bad time for the Mavericks who had rallied from a 21 point deficit and had pulled within 3 points of the Celtics and with time remaining in the Fourth Quarter.

Ultimately losing their best player ended the rally and the Dallas Mavericks have very little time between Game 3 and Game 4 to make adjustments, dust themselves off and look to avoid an embarrassing sweep.

There is no doubt that Luka Doncic will have heard and read all of the words focusing on him, but it has been a tough Series for him. Defensively he has never been the best, but there is only so much Doncic can do on the other side of the court and Boston have made it clear that the role players are not going to have a big impact on the Series.

Kyrie Irving played well in Game 3, but the Celtics are living with their former player and Doncic scoring points and the efforts to shut down the rest have really paid off.

You have to expect more of the same from the Boston Celtics, even if they almost shockingly blew a massive lead in the Game 3 victory. Ultimately that has taken them to the brink of winning a first NBA Championship in sixteen years and will place Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown on another level all together.

Both played a big game on the road to help the Celtics win again and they have shown they can cope without Kristaps Porzingis, who had to sit down in Game 3 and has to be considered doubtful with the short turnaround into Game 4.

Boston have shown a couple of times in this Series that once they get hot, they are going to have all of the answers to this Dallas Mavericks Defensive scheme. The Celtics are finding the open man when it comes to setting up the three pointers and they are draining enough of them to really take control of the tempo.

After three games, it is very difficult to see a massive shift in the NBA Finals and the 'under' continues to be the play.

With the win on Wednesday, the 'under' is now 22-11-1 in the NBA Finals, while Game 4s in the Finals are 9-1 in favour of the 'under'.

There is a short turn in the action and that may contribute to another low-scoring game as Boston continue to make things very difficult for the Dallas role players. The Celtics do have the capabilities of putting up big points if they find their three point shooting groove, but Dallas have shown they can at least force some misses and the one point drop in the total may not be enough for the 'over' to come in.

Monday 17th June

Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: Criticisms were heard and there was a real worry that the Dallas Mavericks were going to be swept out of the NBA Finals.

Instead Luka Doncic came out with something to prove and Kyrie Irving's long run of defeats to his former team were ended in emphatic fashion as the Mavericks blew out the Boston Celtics in Game 4.

The game was so far out of hand that the Celtics actually didn't play their starters in the Fourth Quarter and the Mavericks may feel they have some real momentum now. In recent years in the NBA Finals, momentum has certainly been a factor once we get into the latter stages of the Series, and that is something the Dallas Mavericks will lean on as they look to find a way to earn one more home game in the 2023/24 season.

The manner of the defeat on Friday will have been a shock to the Boston Celtics, but this is a team that is unlikely to panic.

It is only the third defeat Boston have suffered in the post-season, but the previous two have been followed up with big wins and they will certainly feel confident of closing this NBA Finals at home. The reality is that the Celtics just had an off-shooting night, as they had in the previous PlayOff defeats, but Boston have shown they can avoid making those nights the norm rather than the exceptions.

At home you have to believe they will shoot the ball that much better than they managed in Game 4 and this is a team that will still be firm in the belief of controlling this NBA Finals.

Kristaps Porzingis was given clearance to play in Game 4, but did not get onto the court- this perhaps indicates that he will be ready to play a part in Game 5 with two days of rest between those two games and that will be a huge boost for the Celtics too.

Game 5 hosts have not had the best record covering the spread in recent NBA Finals, but being a big home favourite is perhaps the exception. Those being asked to lay at least 4.5 points are now 20-10-2 against the spread in the last thirty-two NBA Finals games in that situation and Boston are 1-0-1 against the spread in this Series.

The blowout loss of Game 4 is hard to ignore, but the last three teams that have been beaten by at least 30 points in a NBA Finals game have followed up not only with a win, but a win by double digits. As well as the Dallas Mavericks played in Game 4, they were aided by a poor day in the office from the Boston Celtics and it may be asking too much for that to happen again.

Dallas have made some adjustments that helped, but there is a feeling they could turn back to poor habits if this game begins poorly and the Boston Celtics look ready to be crowned NBA Champions again.

MY PICKS: 06/06 Boston Celtics - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

09/06 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

12/06 Dallas Mavericks-Boston Celtics Under 212.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

14/06 Dallas Mavericks-Boston Celtics Under 211.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

17/06 Boston Celtics - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NBA Finals: 3-0-1, + 2.73 Units (4 Units Staked, + 68.25% Yield)

Conference Finals: 3-6, - 3.27 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)

Conference Semi Finals: 13-11, + 0.87 Units (24 Units Staked, + 3.63% Yield)

First Round: 22-17, + 3.27 Units (38 Units Staked, + 8.61% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs 2023- NBA Finals Picks Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Games 1-7 (June 1-18)

It has been a really good NBA PlayOffs tournament with the first ever team coming through the Play In Tournament to reach the NBA Finals confirmed earlier this week when the Miami Heat just about held onto their emotions to record a seven game Eastern Conference Finals win over the Boston Celtics.

The Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference might be a surprise Finalist, but the Denver Nuggets have backed up their Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference to blitz past the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns and then sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers to make a first appearance in the NBA Finals in franchise history.

Don't think for a moment that the players are happy with that alone as Denver look to go on and secure the NBA Championship over two weeks in June and the layers have set them as the strong favourites to do that.

No one should dismiss the chances of the Miami Heat who have beaten three higher Seeded opponents in their PlayOff run, which includes knocking off the Number 1 and Number 2 Seed in the East.

Jimmy Butler will always feel he is the best player on the court, but I think the majority may actually believe it is Nikola Jokic on the Denver roster that deserves that tag. Ultimately so much is going to come down to the role players in the NBA Finals as it always does and both teams have to be really happy with what they have seen from those around their superstars throughout the last couple of months.

NBA Finals 2023- Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Thursday 1st June

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: You have to admire the way both the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat have played in the NBA PlayOffs, but this may not have been the NBA Finals that the television networks would have hoped for and especially not considering the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics were Conference Final losers.

No one involved with the Nuggets or Heat are going to care about what the networks may have wanted and they will feel they are very much deserving of their position.

It is hard to make the case about anything else when it comes to the Denver Nuggets- they finished with the top Seed in the Western Conference and have crushed the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers for the loss of just three games. Finishing with the best record also means the Nuggets have earned home court advantage and there is absolutely no doubt that Denver is one of the best home advantages in the NBA.

The Nuggets play in an altitude that gives them a serious edge over any opponent heading to Mile High and that has been backed up with eight wins here in the post-season. Only the Memphis Grizzlies won more home games than Denver in the regular season, while it is almost impossible to ignore the fact that the Nuggets have been dominant here in the PlayOffs.

One concern has to be the fact that the Denver Nuggets have not played since May 22nd after sweeping their way past the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Being rested is clearly a good thing, but breaking rhythm for almost two weeks is perhaps not ideal at this time of the season.

In saying that, Denver must be much happier with their approach to the NBA Finals compared with the Miami Heat who have needed six games to beat the Milwaukee Bucks, six games to beat the New York Knicks and then blew a 3-0 lead and had to win a Game 7 on the road against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Ultimately they did avoid the historical collapse and that will have given the players some belief, but the Miami Heat have had little time between Monday and Thursday to get used to the conditions in Denver and that may play a part in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Jimmy Butler is the headline maker for Miami, but he will need Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent to produce the same standard that was set in the Eastern Conference Finals. It is Caleb Martin in particular who has been a huge player for the Heat and perhaps deserved the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, but the Nuggets are a much deeper team than the Boston Celtics and are unlikely to play as many poor Fourth Quarters as the Celtics managed to do.

The Miami three point shooting was firing in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Nuggets are a lengthy team that have managed to shut down the shooters and especially at home. Denver have held teams to just 32% from the three point range on their home court and I think that is going to be key to the NBA Finals, one that I expect the Denver Nuggets to win.

I think the Nuggets will get off to a strong start in Game 1 and I have mentioned in previous Rounds how difficult teams playing out of a Game 7 have found the first game of the next Series. The Boston Celtics failed to cover in the Conference Finals in such a position and I am going to back rest over rhythm in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, with the feeling being that Miami will struggle after the emotional investment to hold off the Boston rally a few days ago.

Big home favourites have been on a good run in the NBA Finals with those favoured by at least 4.5 points on a run of 18-8-1 against the spread in the last twenty-seven in that position. Favourites in general are 9-4 against the spread in the last thirteen NBA Finals games, while home teams are 7-2 against the spread in the last nine Game 1s played in the NBA Finals.

Those wins have tended to come by a double digit margin and I do think the Denver Nuggets can find enough from their three point shooters to ease past Miami.

The Heat have really struggled in recent visits to Denver with a 1-5 record against the spread in their last six here and I think the Nuggets make a big statement to open the NBA Finals in 2023.

Sunday 4th June

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: Game 1 is in the books and it ended with another strong Denver Nuggets win with their strong home court advantage and they are favourites to beat the Miami Heat when Game 2 is played on Sunday.

The final score does not really highlight the strong performance from the Nuggets, but Denver fans will know there is even more to come from their team. A strong three point shooting team only landed 30% of those shots in Game 1 and I do think that is partly down to the rhythm being broken from a long rest between Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals and the opening game of the NBA Finals.

Now they have had 48 minutes under their belts, I do think we will see an improvement from the Denver Nuggets from the three point range, while the Heat have to make adjustments to slow down the success Denver had from within the arc.

Other adjustments will also need to be made by the Heat after a disappointing effort in Game 1, but the team may feel they can be stronger with a few more days getting used to the altitude in Denver and with the Game 7 win over the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals now almost a week ago.

Miami's big performer in the Eastern Conference Finals was Caleb Martin, but he struggled badly in the opening game of the NBA Finals. The Heat did have some good looks from the three point range, which is encouraging, but the 33% hit mark needs to be improved significantly if the Heat are going to drag these Finals back to 1-1 before heading home.

I do think both teams will be better Offensively in Game 2, but I think the depth of the Denver Nuggets is key to the Finals. I also believe they will show a lot better form from the three point range and that is going to help the home team cover in another winning effort in my opinion.

Game 2 home teams who are favoured are on a 5-1-1 run against the spread in the last seven NBA Finals played, while teams who shot at below 42% are just 5-13 against the spread in their next eighteen games in the Finals (Miami shot 41% in Game 1).

Once again it is a big spread and the Heat have constantly proved they can not only cover as a big underdog in these PlayOffs, but they can also win those games outright. However, I do think the Denver Nuggets are the toughest of the road tests they could have had and I think they will shoot a little more efficiently from three point range to cover again.

Wednesday 7th June

Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: Listening to Steve Kerr talk glowingly about the Miami Heat adjustments in Game 2 of the NBA Finals just backs up the feeling that the Heat have one of the all-time great Head Coaches at the helm. Erik Spoelstra has not always been given the credit he deserves, but winning another NBA Championship with this current group of Heat players will raise his stock significantly even if most involved in the NBA know how good his Coaching is already.

The Game 2 win saw the Miami Heat recover from yet another big deficit on the road in these PlayOffs and this has become a feature of the team. Undrafted players will be performing with a big chip on their shoulder and that has seen the Heat overcome some mighty odds already as they became the first team to win in Denver and take the NBA Finals back to South Florida with it all tied up.

Kevin Love coming into the starting line up changed things for Miami as they can now put Jimmy Butler next to Jamal Murray, but it should not be ignored that they needed a big Fourth Quarter and a night where they managed to nail 49% of their three pointers. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combined for 8/16 from the three point range and the likes of Love, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson all made big contributions, but backing up that kind of shooting will not be easy.

There will certainly have been a feeling in the Denver Nuggets locker room that they are as much to blame for the result as any Miami Heat adjustment. Head Coach Michael Malone let his feelings be known publicly as he called out the Nuggets players for a lack of effort at the beginning and in the Fourth Quarter when they allowed Miami to do whatever they wanted Offensively.

You have to feel that is going to light a fire inside the players, while Malone will also have to make some adjustments to just make things easier for Jamal Murray who struggled in Game 2. Being guarded by Jimmy Butler is tough, but Michael Porter Jr had a poor outing too and even then the Nuggets were only just beaten.

Nikola Jokic scored 41 points for the Nuggets in Game 2, but, amazingly, Denver have not won a PlayOff game in which he has scored at least 40 points. While Jokic will have his impact on games, the players around him have to make the big plays and I expect the Nuggets will have been looking through the game tape and will have a much more rounded effort, especially on the Defensive side of the court.

The Nuggets have not been as strong on the road during their PlayOffs run, but that is because they have been dominant at home before losing Game 2. However, they have won games in Minnesota, Phoenix and in Los Angeles against the Lakers and I do think we will see a better Denver team in Game 3 as they look to regain home court.

Game 2 winners have struggled to back that up in Game 3 in recent NBA Finals and those teams are 3-7 against the spread in the last ten Finals. The strong three point shooting from Miami in Game 2 might be seen as a huge positive, but backing that up is the challenge and teams who have shot at 47% or better from the three point range have produce a 4-12-1 record against the spread in their next seventeen games.

Overlooking the Miami Heat has been an expensive mistake for most in the off-season, but I do think they needed a lot to go their way in Game 2 which is going to be tough to replicate. The role players have continued to step up, but Michael Malone's call out should have just refocused the Denver Nuggets and I think they will be able to win this one on the road.

Friday 9th June

Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: Adjustments were made by the Miami Heat to take Game 2, but they were not able to replicate the strong three point shooting from that game when returning home. That proved to be too much to overcome for the Heat and they dropped Game 3 in a 15 point home defeat to give the Denver Nuggets home court advantage right back.

While the Heat have been moving things around, the Denver Nuggets looked to make more subtle changes to their approach in Game 3 compared with the losing effort in Game 2. On that day, Jamal Murray had been a little surprised by the approach Miami had taken to get him out of his rhythm, but he was much more prepared on South Beach and that meant a more aggressive role.

This time Jamal Murray was able to get into the paint and look for his own shots where they were available and he produced a triple-double, along with Nikola Jokic, to lead the way for the Nuggets.

Michael Malone will be expecting a backlash from the Miami Heat when Game 4 is played on Friday evening, but the Head Coach has to be much happier with the Defensive intensity that Denver showed. That was most evident with a dominant advantage on the boards, while the Miami role players were not able to get their three point shooting on track as highlighted by Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combining for just 2/10 from the three point mark and just 3/17 overall from the field.

While Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are going to make their impact, the Heat know it is the role players that will need to be most effective if they are going to upset the odds and win the NBA Championship.

I do expect the Heat to be better from the three point mark in this one, but it is a worry that two of the three games in the NBA Finals has seen them struggle. It feels like Miami have decided that they are going to need a heavy dose of three pointers to win these Finals and this is a make or miss League these days, even if the Denver Nuggets look more comfortable taking whatever the Heat are willing to give them.

Denver will know there is room for improvement from their side too- while Murray and Jokic dominated Game 3, Michael Porter Jr continues to struggle. There is a depth to the Nuggets roster that makes them dangerous and different bench players have stepped up to help out the two stars, but the Nuggets will hope that Porter Jr is able to find his Offensive groove, even if he is making an impact on the Defensive side of the court.

The short gap between Game 3 and Game 4 will make it tougher for these teams to make too many adjustments and there is every chance this is going to be another low scoring game.

As Michael Malone was heard saying before Game 3, Denver have largely dominated the first three games and only a massive Fourth Quarter from the Heat in Game 2 has helped them keep the NBA Finals competitive. They will need something like that on Friday and NBA Finals home underdogs have dropped to 1-6 against the spread in the last seven in this situation following Miami's home loss to the Denver Nuggets.

We haven't really seen the Nuggets get going from the three point range yet, but they have shown they can crash into the paint and find what they want Offensively. I think that will continue to be the case for the Nuggets and the more erratic Miami Heat need to be at their very best to keep up.

Even in Game 2 with the very high percentage of shots falling, Miami only just got over the line for the win and I will stick with the Denver Nuggets to put themselves on the hill for the NBA Championship with another road win.

They are known for their home advantage, but it should now be remembered that the Nuggets have won their last four road PlayOff games and I think they can get another on the board in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

Monday 12th June

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: You have to credit Erik Spoelstra for making the adjustments that helped the Miami Heat steal Game 2 of the NBA Finals, but that was a game that the Denver Nuggets firmly believe they gave away. There has been no panic in the locker room and the Nuggets have just underlined their strength by producing back to back blowouts on the road to move into a commanding 3-1 lead in the Finals.

Only the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers have been able to overcome such a deficit and I think it is an extreme long shot for the Miami Heat to do the same. In fact, bringing the NBA Finals back to South Florida for a Game 6 would be a massive achievement as they once again head to Mile High City as a significant underdog.

The Game 2 win here saw the Heat recover from another double digit deficit in these PlayOffs, but it is tough to replicate how they managed to do that.

That was a day in which the Miami Heat hit 49% of their three pointers and made seventeen overall, but they have been restricted to 31% and 32% in Games 3 and 4 and have made just nineteen three pointers across those two home losses.

At this stage it is unlikely that the Miami Heat are going to change their approach too much, but they need someone to step up and take the pressure away from Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus had a huge Game 2, but these two starters have combined for just 12 points in the last two games, while Caleb Martin has not been able to have the same impact on the NBA Finals as he did against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.

With an extra day of rest between Game 4 and Game 5, Spoelstra could make some changes to the starting five, but it is still a big ask for the Miami Heat. They almost need another performance like Game 2 to merely be competitive, but that is asking a lot from the role players and I do think the Denver Nuggets have gotten a complete control of these NBA Finals right now.

I do believe they have always been comfortable with the match up, and the Nuggets have shown they can win games in different ways. The Game 4 win was the first time they have really gotten the three pointers going and different players have come off the bench to produce for the team when they have been needed.

Jamal Murray did not have a very good game in terms of points scored, but continues to make a big impact for the Nuggets and has dished out double digit assists in all four NBA Finals games. Michael Porter Jr showed one or two signs that his shot might begin to fall, while Aaron Gordon had a huge Game 4 to continue his fine play on both ends of the court.

Momentum is with the Denver Nuggets now and I would be surprised if they allowed that to slip away in front of their home fans.

Teams playing after a double digit win have improved to 18-7-2 against the spread in the last twenty-seven NBA Finals games after Denver's win in Game 4, while teams playing after a double digit win are 8-2-1 against the spread in the last eleven when into a Game 5-7.

It is extremely unlikely that the Nuggets will shoot the three ball as well as they did in Game 4, but they have shown they can beat the Miami in a number of different ways. Outside of the Fourth Quarter collapse in Game 2, Denver have been strong winners in these NBA Finals game by game and I think they can be again.

MY PICKS: 01/06 Denver Nuggets - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

04/06 Denver Nuggets - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

07/06 Denver Nuggets - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

09/06 Denver Nuggets - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

12/06 Denver Nuggets - 9 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NBA Finals Update: 3-1, + 1.73 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43.25% Yield)

Conference Finals: 2-8-1, - 6.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 56.18% Yield)

Semi Final: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)

First Round: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)

PlayOffs 2023: 38-25-2, + 9.76 Units (65 Units Staked, + 15.02% Yield)