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Showing posts with label Halle Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Halle Picks. Show all posts

Friday, 20 June 2025

Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 20th June)

It has been a difficult couple of days for the Tennis Picks, but there is still every chance of ending this week on a positive.

All of the Quarter Final matches are scheduled to be played on Friday and this is the busiest day of the week for the Tennis Picks and one that may just determine whether it is a bounce back seven days for the selections or not.


Leylah Fernandez - 1.5 games v Dayana Yastremska: When this Quarter Final was set and the markets were released, Leylah Fernandez had been set as the underdog, but that is far from the case now.

It felt like the wrong way round considering the previous form these two players have displayed on the grass courts and Leylah Fernandez should have enough to reach the Semi Final in Nottingham.

She is a strange player- once in a while there is a big run, but Fernandez has struggled for consistency over the last twelve months and the 32-26 record highlights that. However, she is still the World Number 30 and the lefty has a decent game for the grass courts, although her best run at Wimbledon is reaching the Third Round last year.

During that summer on this surface, Leylah Fernandez also reached the Quarter Final in Birmingham and Final in Eastbourne, while her loss last week to Tatjana Maria at Queen's Club doesn't look nearly as bad considering the veteran went on to lift the title.

Both wins in Nottingham have been deserved, and Leylah Fernandez looks to be in good shape as she prepares to try and beat Dayana Yastremska for a third time on the pro Tour.

Any player that puts a couple of wins on the board at a tournament will be feeling confident, but Dayana Yastremska has bailed herself out of some tough spots. Continuing to face the Break Points and coming out on top is tough for any professional player and Yastremska is likely going to have to deal with a few more on serve in this Quarter Final.

In recent years Dayana Yastremska has been solid, if unspectacular, on the grass courts and this is a considerable step in terms of level of opponent compared with the Second Round win. Even in the previous two matches, the serve has been a little vulnerable and that should give the Canadian the edge in this Quarter Final and especially with the mental advantage of knowing she has beaten Yastremska twice previously.


Aryna Sabalenka-Elena Rybakina over 22.5 games: Would it surprise anyone if in three weeks time Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are the last two standing in the Ladies tournament at Wimbledon?

Both players have had plenty of success on the grass and they have all of the weapons needed for another deep run at SW19.

It is Elena Rybakina who has gotten over the line by winning the title at Wimbledon, but the motivation will be very high in the Aryna Sabalenka camp to see their player join her in the winner's enclosure. Both Grand Slam runs have ended in the Final in Melbourne and Paris and the World Number 1 will be desperate to have at least one major title under her belt before heading back to New York City in August.

The one grass court match played underlined Aryna Sabalenka's capabilities on the serve, but it is the return that will be tested.

We can the exact same for Elena Rybakina who has a huge serve for this surface, but who has not been returning as well as she would have liked in her matches on the grass in 2025. The returning numbers can be picked up a little bit, but the Rybakina serve has been important for her and helped the World Number 11 win three of the four matches played on grass this season.

Matches between these players are usually very competitive and this Quarter Final could very much trend in that direction.

All six of the wins produced by Aryna Sabalenka have been in three set matches, while the straight set wins have been earned by Elena Rybakina in three of her four wins in this rivalry. However, only two of the ten matches played between these players has ended with less than 23 games shared out and both have the capabilities of serving well enough to secure at least a set each or, at the very least, push this into two tight, competitive sets that perhaps need at least one tie-breaker.


Jack Draper - 3.5 games v Brandon Nakashima: He made harder work of his win over Alexei Popyrin than anticipated, but Jack Draper did win and there will be a lot of hope and belief that the British Number 1 can enjoy a big two weeks at Wimbledon.

The draw will be key, but Jack Draper is a confident player on the grass and his numbers have been impressive over the last twelve months.

My one concern with backing Draper is that I can't remember being on the right side of too many of his matches, including that Second Round contest a couple of days ago.

He is a capable server and so Jack Draper will believe he can contain the threat of Brandon Nakashima and try and build some scoreboard pressure on the 23 year old American. Much like Draper, Brandon Nakashima has shown he can produce some real quality on the grass courts, although he has perhaps not had the big wins to really boost the confidence on the surface.

The serve can be a potent weapon for Brandon Nakashima too, but Alexander Zverev was able to string enough points together to break him twice in Stuttgart last week. Twelve months ago it was Jack Draper finding the breaks of serve at the same tournament to comfortably progress past Nakashima and the British player has won the last two matches between them on the Tour.

One poor service game let Jack Draper down as far as the handicap was concerned in the Second Round, but he may have a bit more success in this Quarter Final on the return and that could see him cover.


Holger Rune - 3.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: The World Number 9 has only just turned 22 years old and that should mean we have yet to see the very best tennis from Holger Rune.

Last year he reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and Holger Rune has shown he has the tennis that is needed to be a successful grass court contender. That run was ended by Novak Djokovic, but Rune may be hoping for better in 2025 with a potentially clearer draw into the Quarter Final and from there his confidence will be in a good place.

Two solid wins have been put together at Queen's to reach the Quarter Final and Holger Rune deserves to be the favourite against veteran Roberto Bautista Agut.

A former top ten Ranked player in his own right, Roberto Bautista Agut has slipped outside the top 50 in the World Rankings and there has been a decline in his performances over the last twelve months. However, the Spaniard is coming into the grass court season still believing he can be competitive on this surface thanks to his experience and previous successes.

He was beaten early in Hertogenbosch, but Roberto Bautista Agut has come through two matches at Queen's in three sets and that does display some confidence.

Of course he is going to have to be better to beat someone like Holger Rune who has won all three of their previous matches on the Tour.

One of those wins came at the French Open last month and Holger Rune looks to be the superior return player of the two, which may be decisive on this surface. Both have been serving well, but the younger player will have more in the tank and that should see the Dane come through with a solid victory to take his place in the Semi Final in West London on Saturday.


Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The United States have always been able to produce very effective grass court tennis players, even if the majority are built up on the hard courts. Movement is the one aspect that is perhaps hardest to understand, but the grass allows the big-serving American players to put plenty of pressure on the opponent.

It feels like 20 year old Alex Michelsen is going to be a solid grass courter in the years ahead having reached the Final in Newport twice in a row and picking up plenty of wins in the warm up tournaments being held in Europe ahead of the third Grand Slam of the season.

He has won two more here in Halle, including upsetting Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Second Round and Alex Michelsen will feel he can frustrate Daniil Medvedev if he is serving as well as he can.

In his relatively short grass court career, Alex Michelsen has won 67% of the points played and that is always going to give him a chance to use the scoreboard to make the opponent feel under pressure. He will feel there is room for improvement when it comes to the return and that will be tested by someone like Daniil Medvedev, especially after producing two solid wins in the main draw.

There was a time when Medvedev did not like playing on this surface, but the last couple of years have been much stronger and his serve can be just as effective as the one that Michelsen will bring onto the court.

Daniil Medvedev is another player who will feel there is more to come from the return, but he has looked better in that aspect this past few days in Halle. He has the capabilities of coming through a tight first set to break the back of the match and Daniil Medvedev can reach the Semi Final with a solid win under his belt.

MY PICKS: Leylah Fernandez - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Aryna Sabalenka- Elena Rybakina Over 22.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Jack Draper - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 6-5, - 0.16 Units (11 Units Staked, - 1.45% Yield)

Thursday, 19 June 2025

Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 19th June)

The majority of the selections made this week have followed the numbers- Joao Fonseca was a touch unfortunate, but Emma Navarro struggled for much of the defeat to Paula Badosa and that was reflected in the final score.

Jack Draper's failure to cover is the exception.

He had four Break Point chances in the first set, but failed to convert and was punished by dropping serve to lose that set 6-3... Even after winning the second set 6-2, Draper could not find a way to cover the handicap mark and it was a match where, once again, the dominant Break Point opportunities did not result in a successful outcome.

At least Alexander Zverev came through his First Round match, even if it was a disappointing day overall.


On Thursday the Quarter Final lineup will be completed at the four tournaments being played this week and so there are plenty of matches to get through with the remainder of the Second Round all to be played.

However, it looks like the research can only identify three selections- one from Nottingham, Halle and Queen's- that can be read below.


Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Jaume Munar: Back to back Wimbledon titles have been secured and there are no real concerns about the ability of Carlos Alcaraz when it comes to performing on this surface.

He is also a former Champion at Queen's Club in West London and so there were real reasons to consider withdrawing from the tournament and just using a couple of exhibition events to warm up for Wimbledon.

The main reason was recovering from the emotional and physical success in Paris earlier this month- Carlos Alcaraz defended the French Open title by coming from 2-0 down in sets to defeat Jannik Sinner and there was no doubt how much energy that was needed to do that in the manner it happened.

Eventually the decision was made to play at Queen's again, and Carlos Alcaraz made a comfortable start to the tournament with a routine straight sets win over Adam Walton. The scoreboard suggested a close match, but the World Number 2 was in complete control of the contest and he can build on that.

Carlos Alcaraz faces a compatriot in the Second Round and Jaume Munar is one of those Spanish players that has struggled to have an impact on the grass.

Jaume Munar came through the First Round when Jordan Thompson had to withdraw from the match after a single set was completed, but prior to the event, the World Number 59 had a career record of 3-13 when playing on this surface. Suffice to say it is a time of the season when Jaume Munar is not at his best and it will be tough for him to challenge someone of the confidence and quality of Carlos Alcaraz.

It would be a big challenge even on Munar's favoured clay courts, but on this surface it should be a bigger edge with Carlos Alcaraz, who should feel relatively comfortable in the match up.

He should be able to get into the rallies on the return and that should see Carlos Alcaraz exert his qualities over Jaume Munar- as long as Alcaraz serves as well as he can, he should have enough about him to earn the breaks of serve needed to cover what is a pretty big line for a best of three set match on the grass.


Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: Last year was a disappointment for Andrey Rublev as far as the grass courts were concerned, but he was a very confident winner in the First Round. This is a player who has performed pretty well on the grass courts in the past and that crushing win over Sebastian Ofner will only have given Rublev some belief in what has been an inconsistent season.

He is next up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Halle and the World Number 63 is not someone who has a lot of grass court experience or success to call upon. His First Round win over Pedro Martinez, another Spaniard who prefers not to play on this surface, saw Tomas Martin Etcheverry improve his career record to 4-9 on the grass, but Andrey Rublev had double that number of wins in just the 2023 season alone.

An early loss in Hertogenbosch backs up the issues that Tomas Martin Etcheverry has had on the grass, but there has to be some respect for a player who gets plenty out of his serve.

On a surface like this one, serving well can keep a player in any match being played and Martin Etcheverry will certainly look to see how Andrey Rublev handles his own frustrations if the lower Ranked player is able to keep the service games ticking over.

A loss of focus when things are not going his way have held Andrey Rublev back, but he has shown enough patience on a surface like this one to produce some solid returning numbers. The way he dealt with the Sebastian Ofner serve bodes well for Rublev, especially if he can continue to serve at the level he was showing in the First Round.

When these two met on the hard courts in Canada last summer in the build up to the US Open, Andrey Rublev did display that patience to come through a tough first set before moving clear in the second. He may need something similar in this match in Halle, but Andrey Rublev can eventually make his superior grass court qualities display that on the final scoreboard.


Sonay Kartal + 3.5 games v Katie Boulter: All credit has to be given to Sonay Kartal for the year she has put together, which means coming into this tournament as the World Number 50, her career best World Ranking mark. It also means direct entry into the main draw at Wimbledon, where she reached the Third Round last year and the 23 year old will feel there is more to come.

She will certainly want to get up to the kind of level that Katie Boulter has reached as the two British players prepare to face off in the Second Round in Nottingham.

Losing to Amanda Anisimova at Queen's last week will have been a blow for Sonay Kartal, although the form of the American cannot be dismissed. In the same tournament Katie Boulter was not able to build on taking the opening set against Diana Shnaider, but the World Number 39 looked pretty comfortable in her opening win here in Nottingham.

Both are pretty comfortable on the grass courts, which is no surprise, but it has been mentioned before that Katie Boulter has struggled for big wins on the surface.

That is not the case for Sonay Kartal, who beat the World Number 16 last week and who upset a couple of top 50 Ranked players in her run at Wimbledon last year.

Their sole previous match up on the Tour ended in a three set win for Katie Boulter on the grass courts of Surbiton a couple of years ago, but Sonay Kartal was much lower in the World Rankings on that occasion. There is not so much between them now and Sonay Kartal has the grass court qualities to at least keep this one competitive with the games being given to her.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Sonay Kartal + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 1.04 Units (8 Units Staked, + 13% Yield)

Tuesday, 17 June 2025

Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 18th June)

A couple of rolls of the ball or a mishit here or there may have led to a perfect 5-0 start to the week for the Tennis Picks, but it was not to be for Joao Fonseca, who had late Break Point opportunities to win and cover.

Instead he was beaten in a third set tie-breaker, but Andrey Rublev had already done all that was expected from him earlier in the day in Halle and that has prevented this week having the same slide as last week following a strong start for the selections.

Moving onto Wednesday means more big names are in action and the majority of the tournaments being played will be into Second Round action over the next couple of days. There some First Round matches to clear up in Halle as the organisers gave a couple of Finalists from the end of last week a bit more time to prepare for their event, but in the main it is onto Second Round action in what are the last really big events before the start of Wimbledon a week on Monday.


Emma Navarro v Paula Badosa: Both of these players produced very solid First Round wins in Berlin and previous form on the grass courts should mean Emma Navarro and Paula Badosa are set for decent impacts when Wimbledon gets underway.

The more matches that can be played now could pay off in SW19 and so this is an important Second Round match.

Last week Emma Navarro was beaten at the same stage at Queens Club in London, while Paula Badosa is playing her first grass court event of 2025, and the performances that have been produced in the opening wins should have given each plenty of confidence.

At the same time, both Navarro and Badosa have struggled for some consistency in the last few months and so they will be looking to rebuild some of the lost confidence by having a strong run in Berlin.

Emma Navarro was a Wimbledon Quarter Finalist last year, and that had followed a Semi Final run in Bad Homburg. She has yet to really find the same level on the surface in the opening three matches played, but all three have been against decent players on the Tour and going 2-1 will certainly help the American believe that her tennis is in a good spot.

In the same two events in 2024, Paula Badosa reached the Fourth Round in SW19 and Quarter Final in Bad Homburg, and she looked in strong shape in crushing home hope Eva Lys in the First Round. This is a significant step upwards in terms of a challenge having split two matches with Emma Navarro last year with the Badosa win being on a clay court and the Navarro win coming at the US Open on the hard courts.

Paula Badosa has all of the attributes to be a really strong grass court player- the serve can be a huge weapon and she showed that she can get her teeth into the return last year and in the strong First Round win.

However, that will be tested by Emma Navarro if the World Number 9 is anywhere near her best and the match up with the Spaniard has been one that she has enjoyed.

This has the makings of a close Second Round match between two players separated by one place in the World Rankings and Emma Navarro can secure the upset. It was something of a surprise that she has been set as the pretty strong underdog, and the American can make use of the games being given to her on the handicap.


Jack Draper - 3.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Over the last twelve months, Alexei Popyrin has perhaps picked up a better understanding of playing on the grass courts, although it is still a work in progress. He is going to be Seeded at Wimbledon later this month and Alexei Popyrin has won six of his last ten matches on the surface having gotten the better of compatriot Aleksandar Vukic in the First Round.

That followed an early loss in Hertogenbosch and there is little doubt that Alexei Popyrin is a very dangerous player on this surface as long as he serves as well as he can. Doing that makes it very difficult to get on top of him and Popyrin won a set in a Third Round loss to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon last year, which will have given him a lot of confidence to perform on this surface.

Playing in London means it is tennis season and Alexei Popyrin has had previous experience of facing a British player at Queens Club when losing to Andy Murray in what turned out to be the last Singles win of the latter's very strong career.

This time he has to face the British Number 1, who is also the World Number 6, and Jack Draper has all of the tools needed to be a very successful player on the surface.

He won a title on the grass in Stuttgart last year, but Draper was disappointingly beaten early at Wimbledon and so there has been a tweak of the schedule. This time Jack Draper decided to have some time off before Queens got underway and he was a very strong First Round winner.

Jack Draper's improvement on the Tour has been behind the strong lefty serve, and that is a weapon that is considerably more dangerous on a surface like this one. He should be able to largely contain the Alexei Popyrin threat when he is serving and that should allow Draper the freedom to try and attack the Australian, who has given up seventeen Break Points in two matches played on the grass this month.

When he is serving at his best, Alexei Popyrin can be very difficult to break- he held 89% of his service games on the grass courts in 2024. This is not an easy surface to break serve, but Jack Draper has had some decent numbers on the grass and he can use his own serve to put some scoreboard pressure on the lower Ranked player.

The home player can take some encouragement from the fact he was able to break the Alexei Popyrin twice on the hard courts of Doha earlier this season too and Draper may have enough to cover the spread in this one barring a significant serving improvement from the World Number 21.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Marcos Giron: It was something of a surprise to not see Marcos Giron's name on the draw sheet at either of the two grass court events played last week.

In recent years, the 31 year old has been a comfortable grass court player and he has had some big wins and solid runs on the surface.

He arrives in Halle to face the home favourite, Alexander Zverev, who is also fresh off of reaching the Stuttgart Final before being downed by Taylor Fritz again. This is also a player who has regularly reached the business end at this tournament in the build up to Wimbledon, although Zverev will have plenty of respect for the kind of tennis that Marcos Giron can produce on the grass.

The serve was key for Marcus Giron last year and it helped him win the ATP title in Newport, as well as reaching the Quarter Final here in Halle. During that summer on the grass, Giron was able to take a set from Jack Draper and beat Andrey Rublev, which are impressive performances and his runs were ended by top ten Ranked players here and at Wimbledon.

The second of those defeats was to Alexander Zverev, who dismissed Marcus Giron at SW19 far more easily than anyone could have really imagined.

It is the kind of win that will give Zverev confidence as he heads out onto the court on Wednesday following the loss in Stuttgart on Sunday and the only real concern is whether he is that motivated for another long week with Wimbledon fast approaching. Having those wins in Stuttgart could be a distraction for Alexander Zverev, even if he is going to be well backed by the fans in the stands, although the match up is hard to ignore.

He has won all three previous matches against Marcus Giron and the two wins in 2024 both came in straight sets.

Overall it has been a real challenge for the World Number 41 to get into the Alexander Zverev service games and that has put too much pressure on his own serve.

It should be noted that Alexander Zverev is not the most convincing of return players on the faster surfaces, but he should have enough chances in this First Round match to win and go through with a cover of this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Emma Navarro + 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Jack Draper - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 2.32 Units (5 Units Staked, + 46.40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 17th June)

If last week is anything to go by, a good start doesn't mean much more than a positive start.

That is the case in this new week of tennis tournaments with the Monday selections returning a positive number, but building on that is important and there is a long way to go between today and the Final of the big events in Berlin, Halle and Queens.

We also have a WTA tournament being played in Nottingham, but the majority of the top names in action on that Tour have ended up in Berlin, which is highlighted by the fact that Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng is a First Round match.

That will be played on Tuesday, but the remaining First Round matches in Berlin look to have been priced up pretty well and instead the focus for the selections will be on the ATP 500 events being played.

All three selections were routine winners on Monday and the hope is that another stress-free, comfortable day for the Tennis Picks is had as we move to within two weeks of the start of Wimbledon.


Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Sebastian Ofner: It has been a difficult season for Andrey Rublev, but he will be hoping that the move back onto the grass courts can spark some kind of return to form.

The French Open was not a terrible tournament for Andrey Rublev, but he will be well aware that the grass is a much tougher surface for the majority of players on the Tour to deal with.

He has had previous successes on the surface, including reaching the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and the Final in Halle as recently as two years ago, and Andrey Rublev has a big game which does suit the grass.

There is no doubt that Andrey Rublev is going to have to produce some of his strongest tennis as he goes up against Sebastian Ofner, a player who has won two matches in the Qualifying Round to get his grass court season underway. Last year, the Austrian reached the Final in Mallorca in the build up to Wimbledon and Sebastian Ofner will feel his serve gives him a chance to stay in this match.

Andrey Rublev has had plenty of serving success on the grass courts, but the key factor in this First Round match in Halle is that the World Number 14 has found a way to get into return games with a little more consistency compared with Sebastian Ofner.

The latter has had plenty of grass court wins under his belt in recent years, which again has to be respected, but his numbers suffer a significant dip when only considering matches against top 100 Ranked players.

Sebastian Ofner's serve can keep him in the match, but the feeling is that Andrey Rublev will find a way to earn a couple of breaks, and that may be enough for a win and a cover.


Joao Fonseca - 2.5 games v Flavio Cobolli: Very little grass court experience has been had by Joao Fonseca who played six matches on the surface in 2024 and was beaten in four of those.

It is no surprise that the surface is unfamiliar to an 18 year old who has really begun to make a big impact on the Tour, but who has spent his youth in South America where the clay courts are the go-to surface.

Despite the win-loss record, Joao Fonseca played pretty well on the grass in 2024 and the development over the last twelve months could make him much more effective this time around.

Nothing was wrong with the return game in those handful of matches, but Joao Fonseca was not able to get enough out of his serve and that is something that may change when he gets underway in Halle. There is no doubt that the serve is improving for him all of the time and Joao Fonseca can at least put Flavio Cobolli under pressure in this First Round match.

Much like Fonseca, Flavio Cobolli is much more comfortable playing on the clay courts, but the Italian has moved into the top 30 of the World Rankings and is set to be Seeded at Wimbledon.

He may be one of the more vulnerable Seeds in the early Rounds in SW19, but Flavio Cobolli did reach the Eastbourne Quarter Final last year. His 3-4 record on the grass in 2024 is nothing to write home about, but Flavio Cobolli made use of his serve and that is going to be an important factor in this match.

The return needed some work with the ball skidding through the court much more than Flavio Cobolli would be used to, but he served well in his seven matches in 2024.

It will be given another examination by Joao Fonseca and the lower Ranked player may just have enough to get through this match and progress into the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Joao Fonseca - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 2.41 Units (3 Units Staked, + 80.33% Yield)

Monday, 16 June 2025

Tennis Picks 2025 (Monday 16th June)

After a positive start to last week, it took a historic failure from Ekaterina Alexandrova to help end the week with a negative number.

It was a hugely frustrating Friday and Saturday considering the chances that the players selected had created.

Sometimes you have to accept you've made a poor selection, but when those players picked have more than double the number of Break Points compared with their opponents, but can't convert, it really is a case of bad luck and that can be very frustrating and disappointing.

Over the last month, it has felt like some of the luck needed for any Pick has been missing, although I have to be happier that the read on the matches has been about right.

Again, if a player is creating two or three times as many Break Points as the opponent, it means they are playing well enough to win matches in the manner expected, rather than missing the majority of those and handing over breaks of serve to scupper the selections. You have to believe that will change back around as long as players are not finding ways to blow matches when having ELEVEN Match Points come and go.


It is a really big week on the grass with some of the very best names on the Tour playing in events to get themselves ready for Wimbledon.

The WTA draw in Berlin looks incredibly loaded with the top talents, while the two Men's Finalists at Roland Garros are also back in action ahead of the start of the third Grand Slam of the season.

There should be plenty of good tennis to watch for the fans, but I hope that is backed up by a decent week for the Tennis Picks, which have suffered over the last three weeks.


Emma Navarro v Marta Kostyuk: She may be the World Number 10, but it has not been a strong calendar year for Emma Navarro and she is looking for some consistency to take into Wimbledon.

There are plenty of World Ranking points to protect in SW19 after a surprising run to the Quarter Final in 2024 and Emma Navarro as shown a liking to playing on the grass.

However, her inconsistent season was all on display at Queens last week where Emma Navarro was able to get past Beatriz Haddad Maia in a tough match before losing to Amanda Anisimova, the eventual Runner Up. The first serve was not working as well as Navarro would have been hoping last week and that has put pressure on ther return.

She is at least going up against an opponent in the First Round in Berlin who has not played a grass court match this season and Marta Kostyuk has not always been at her most comfortable on the surface.

Her numbers over the last couple of years on the grass have been a little disappointing and the early exit at the French Open will have knocked the confidence of the World Number 26. Over the last twelve months, Marta Kostyuk has dropped ten places in the World Rankings and the match up with Emma Navarro has been a tough one for her.

Both previous matches have been played on the hard courts and Emma Navarro is leading the head to head 2-0 as she has been able to get her teeth into the return games with a little more consistency. On the grass, you would have to give Navarro a bit more of an edge and she can win this match in the opening Round in Berlin.


Katerina Siniakova - 4.5 games v Viktoriya Tomova: Qualifying for the main draw should stand Katerina Siniakova in good stead in this First Round match and the World Number 73 should be able to display all of her grass court capabilities in this contest.

Being a strong Doubles player certainly helps on this surface where getting up to the net and putting the finishing touch to rallies can be important.

Katerina Siniakova was beaten early in Hertogenbosch, which will have been a disappointment, but the two wins here in Berlin should have given her a lot of confidence. She has not only served effectively in those wins, but Siniakova has had her eye in when it comes to the return and she has been creating a lot of Break Point chances in those wins.

Viktoriya Tomova will know all about the qualities of her opponent having been beaten twice by her on the Tour, including earlier this season on a hard court.

Despite being Ranked lower than Siniakova, Viktoriya Tomova was not forced to go through Qualifying and that means her sole match on the grass was a defeat in Hertogenbosch to eventual Champion Elise Mertens. That defeat does not look so bad after Mertens went on to lift the title, but Tomova has been a little inconsistent on the grass courts over the last few seasons.

The handicap mark is a significant one and that will need to be respected, but the feeling is that Katerina Siniakova can use the momentum of Qualifying to get the better of this opponent.

She has been the significantly better server in the head to head matches too and Katerina Siniakova can come away with a solid First Round win.


Alexander Bublik - 2.5 games v Alexandre Muller: The surprising run at Roland Garros may have ended in a relatively one-sided defeat, but Alexander Bublik will have taken so much from that performance.

In recent years his numbers on the grass courts have been impressive, even if the win-loss record could, and perhaps should, have been improved and that confidence from the second Grand Slam could set Alexander Bublik up for a very good third Grand Slam of the season.

There may be an outside chance of earning a Seed for Wimbledon with a big run in Halle, but the reality is that Alexander Bublik is still going to be dangerous with his capabilities of playing on a surface that so many find alien.

He returns for the first time since the French Open and Alexander Bublik can get the better of Alexandre Muller in the First Round.

The latter enters the tournament as the World Number 40, which is above Alexander Bublik, but Alexandre Muller has not really not enjoyed the grass court season.

The Frenchman has a career 3-5 record on the surface, but Muller can serve pretty well at times and that should show up on the grass courts. In those eight previous matches, Alexandre Muller has only won 58% of his service points played, but two of those matches have been against top 5 Ranked players and he has had stronger returning numbers when facing opponents that are not Ranked that high.

Alexander Bublik can be tough to trust- he is certainly someone who has to have got out of bed the right side on the morning of his match- but he does have solid serving numbers on the grass. If he can stick to that kind of level, Bublik can keep this opponent under some pressure and that may see him find a break or two that is needed to win and cover this handicap mark set.

MY PICKS: Emma Navarro @ 1.95 William Hill (1 Unit)
Katerina Siniakova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alexander Bublik - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 93-79, + 6.75 Units (210 Units Staked, + 3.21% Yield)

Sunday, 19 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 19th)

A wet day in Birmingham means both Semi Finals and Final at that tournament will be played on the same day, but the other events have all managed to get through their Saturday schedules.

We have all of the Finals scheduled for Sunday on the same day the last events before Wimbledon are set to begin. I won't have any Picks from the First Round matches that will get those events underway on Sunday as first I concentrate on ending this week with something of a flourish.


Daniil Medvedev-Hubert Hurkacz over 23.5 games: Despite the ban that is going to prevent Daniil Medvedev from playing at Wimbledon, the current World Number 1 has continued to shine on the grass courts. He will be playing in his second Final on the surface in two weeks and will also be competing in Mallorca to make sure the Ranking points are put in the bank before the move onto the hard courts in the build towards the US Open.

I would not be surprised if Daniil Medvedev decides to play a tournament or two in July to make sure he doesn't lose any match sharpness before looking to defend the Grand Slam title he won last season. For now his main focus is making sure he continues to perform at a high level on the grass courts, although Daniil Medvedev will also be looking to be much more competitive than he was in the upset loss last week in Hertogenbosch.

This has not always been the best match up for Daniil Medvedev having split four matches with Hubert Hurtkacz over the last twelve months. The first one of those was played between these two in an epic match at Wimbledon that lasted five sets and there really has not been much between two solid servers.

It has been a strong week for Hubert Hurkacz who has upset Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Quarter Final and then come from behind to beat Nick Kyrgios in the Semi Final. The character and mental strength shown by Hubert Hurkacz to win the match against the Australian without breaking serve once is going to be a huge factor in how far he can go at Wimbledon again, and I do think he has the serving power to keep this one competitive even in a two set loss.

Both of these players have produced very strong serving numbers in their run to the Halle Final and that is backed up by the fact that Daniil Medvedev has held 97% of his service games and Hubert Hurkacz has held 94% of his . You can't ignore the fact that Medvedev has faced a lot more break points than Hubert Hurkacz, but he has played the big points well and has held 88% of his service games played in the four matches against this opponent.

Daniil Medvedev has a huge advantage when it comes to the returning numbers in Halle this week, but Hubert Hurkacz is confident with his serve and has held 90% of his service games against the World Number 1. I do think there will be at least one tie-breaker needed in this one and the matches have been competitive enough to see three of the four needing a deciding set to determine the winner.

That is a real possibility in this Final and I do think both can be confident in the serving they have been producing for this match to go pretty long and cover this total set.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev-Hubert Hurkacz Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 26-25, - 4.04 Units (106 Units Staked, - 3.81% Yield)

Saturday, 18 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 18th)

It has been a difficult week.

And for about an hour on Friday, I felt things were just not going to get much better as two players I picked won the first set of their matches and were then beaten in three sets.

Both of those were at close to odds against plays (one was odds against) and one of the players had been up a break in the second set before falling away.

At that point I honestly thought this was going to be one of those weeks where bad fortune and bad Picks were going to combine to really batter the numbers.

But then things changed...

After a 1-2 start on Friday with those aforementioned three set defeats, the Tennis Picks surged to a 7-1 conclusion for the day and almost completely wiped out the deep hole the numbers had been in through the first four days of the week.

Even then I feel it could have been even better, but I have to be very happy with the outcome of the Quarter Final matches and now we are down to the final two days at the events being played this week.

Conditions were very difficult for the two Great Britain based tournaments on Friday, but Saturday looks to be cooler all around, especially at the WTA Birmingham event. However, rain is also expected both in Birmingham and London so both tournaments are expected to be impacted.

It will be much tougher in Germany though with the heatwave moving across Europe hitting this weekend in time for the Semi Final and Final matches in Berlin and Halle. You have to factor those into your plays, but most of the players left in the draws should be used to what they have to deal with.


Hubert Hurkacz-Nick Kyrgios over 23.5 games: It has been hot in Halle all week, but the temperature rockets upwards over the weekend and I do think that is only going to favour the server even more than usual.

Both of these Semi Finalists have been dominant behind serve so far this week and I do think that both Hubert Hurkacz and Nick Kyrgios are likely going to keep that going against each other.

You have to give Nick Kyrgios the edge when it comes to the returning numbers this week in his run to the Semi Final, but he has struggled against the first serve of both Daniel Altmaier and Stefanos Tsitsipas before overwhelming Pablo Carreno Busta. While the earlier Rounds saw Hubert Hurkacz with his first serve percentage, he landed 65% of them in his Quarter Final upset of Felix Auger-Aliassime and that will be the key to any success that the Polish player is going to have in this match.

He has not been as consistent with the first serve as he would like, but found a rhythm on Friday and that will give Hubert Hurkacz every opportunity to get in front of the scoreboard and keep the pressure on Nick Kyrgios.

The Australian has played the big points well on the return of serve this week, which makes him dangerous, but he will need some help from Hubert Hurkacz to get into a position to break serve.

However, Nick Kyrgios will be very confident in his own serve and looking for that shot to put Hubert Hurkacz under pressure. The latter admitted he could not get a read of the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve in the Quarter Final and resorted to guessing, but it will be that much harder to produce effective returns against someone like Nick Kyrgios who is landing 64% of first serves an winning 83% of points behind that shot.

With a limited return, Hubert Hurkacz is going to have to serve well to make this a competitive match, but he showed he can handle the pressure of a serve-dominated match on Friday. A hot day in Halle is likely going to make the ball fly a little faster all around and I would expect to see at least one tie-breaker between these two very strong servers, especially as both Nick Kyrgios and Hubert Hurkacz can be a little bit hit and miss with their return.

Both have been winning over 71% of their service points played and I would not be surprised if this is a match that comes down to one or two points in tie-breakers to determine the outcome. A place in the Final is going to mean plenty of motivation to take to the court, and it should mean even dropping the first set is not going to see heads drop and we may even need a decider to see who can earn their spot as a Finalist in Halle.

MY PICKS: Hubert Hurkacz-Nick Kyrgios Over 23.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev-Oscar Otte Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cori Gauff @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 24-22, - 1.44 Units (92 Units Staked, - 1.57% Yield)

Friday, 17 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 17th)

The last few days have been incredibly frustrating with at least one selection a day finding a way to lose a match they should have won.

It has meant a tough set of results being returned, especially when adding in some poor selections.

Things would have looked a lot different with those close calls going my way, but it is how it goes sometimes and there isn't much you can aside from sticking with the process.


Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: Over the last couple of years, Felix Auger-Aliassime has begun to make more of an impact on the ATP Tour, although I think he has joined up with Toni Nadal to try and bring a little more consistency to his game. He is young, and that is a factor, but losing concentration within matches makes progress through the early Rounds of any tournament a little more haphazard and could potentially mean Felix Auger-Aliassime is not able to produce the energy he needs to really rack up the tournament wins.

An all-around game has been developed by the Canadian and it has pushed him into the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time earlier this season.

Even now, Felix Auger-Aliassime will be heading into Wimbledon as one of the top Seeds and he has shown a very good game that is well suited to the grass courts throughout his career.

He has yet to win a title on the surface, but Felix Auger-Aliassime reached the Quarter Final in Wimbledon and he has made it through to the Semi Final at least in all five warm up events he has ever played on the grass courts. A win on Friday will keep that run going and Felix Auger-Aliassime will be confident even though he is facing an opponent who reached the Wimbledon Semi Final last season.

Hubert Hurkacz has a serve that should be a big weapon on the grass courts and he has always held a very high percentage of service games played on the surface. However, the World Number 12 has regularly struggled when it comes to the return and he has only broken in 11% of return games played on the grass this season.

That is a number that is perhaps lower than expected, but even in his run to the Wimbledon Semi Final, Hubert Hurkacz broke in 20% of his return games played in the tournament. Overall his return numbers need work on this surface and it does put some pressure on him to make sure he serves well and ultimately may be the reason he has a relatively poor win-loss record on the grass, especially taking away that run last year.

Two solid wins in Halle will have given Hubert Hurkacz confidence, but this has not been a great match up for him having lost both previous matches against Felix Auger-Aliassime.

The Polish player has yet to break the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve, although it should be noted that both matches were competitive and they have earned the same number of break points across those. A slight edge has been with the Canadian's return game, while has shown a bit more consistency on the return on grass courts in general compared with Hubert Hurkacz.

Last year they met in the First Round here in Halle and it resulted in a straight sets win for Felix Auger-Aliassime and I think he can match that in this Quarter Final.


Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: There will always be a lot of talk about the danger that Andy Murray will pose at Wimbledon having only just missed out on a Seed, but Nick Kyrgios is going to be right next to the former Champion as the unseeded player that none of the top players will want to face early in the tournament.

The Australian looks much happier in his personal life and that has been seen with a more focused approach to his tennis, although Nick Kyrgios is never that far away from having an argument with the umpire or the crowd.

It makes him a character that is going to be much followed throughout his career, but a focused Nick Kyrgios is a very dangerous opponent and has long shown an affinity with the grass courts. He played some strong tennis to reach the Semi Final in Stuttgart last week before being undone by Andy Murray, and Nick Kyrgios has headed to Halle with confidence that has shown up in his two solid wins here.

Beating Stefanos Tsitsipas from a set behind showed some of the new maturity from Kyrgios which has added to a strong game and he is going to be a big favourite to beat Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta.

While most will associate players from Spain with the clay courts, Pablo Carreno Busta has had plenty of success on the hard courts in his career and putting two wins on the board in Halle means he deserves plenty of respect. In reality, the grass has perhaps not been his favoured surface and Pablo Carreno Busta may also have taken advantage of what has looked a pretty kind draw, but this is anything but that.

The Pablo Carreno Busta career numbers on the grass shows that his serve can be a little vulnerable on the surface, but the real problem has been having difficulty getting to grips with how to return. In the two wins this week, Pablo Carreno Busta has been serving pretty well though with 83% of his games being held, but he has also backed that up with breaks in 18% of return games to just edge his way through to this Quarter Final.

My feeling is that it will be much tougher to get into the Nick Kyrgios service games, while there has been an improvement on the return this week as the big points have been played well.

Nick Kyrgios is still a slightly underwhelming return player, but he may feel he can get into more of the Carreno Busta service games. In their two previous matches, Kyrgios has been able to do that by winning 40% of return points played and I do think the more natural grass player of the two will be able to come through with a win and a cover.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: The late finish on Wednesday could have an impact on the veteran Marin Cilic in this Quarter Final, but he is very adept at playing on the grass courts and as a former Champion at Queens Club, I am not expecting too many issues in recovery time.

The bigger issue may be facing a very competent opponent in Emil Ruusuvuori who has come through the Qualifiers and won a couple of matches in the main draw. The win over Feliciano Lopez in the Second Qualifying Round means Emil Ruusuvuori is already used to beating former Champions here, although the rest of the draw has worked out pretty well for him.

This is a marked step up in terms of level of opponent too- Feliciano Lopez is very comfortable on the grass courts, but he is very much in the twilight of his career, while Marin Cilic is coming off a run to the French Open Semi Final on what is his weakest surface. The Croatian is a former Finalist at Wimbledon and the grass is a surface that he has always enjoyed having ten matches on it last year.

Marin Cilic has won his two matches in Queens behind an impressive serve and you may even have expected him to have a higher hold percentage than the 88% mark put together when you consider he has won 72% of points behind that shot. I expect that to be a key part of his tennis in the very hot conditions expected in London on Friday, while Marin Cilic has backed that up by breaking his first two opponents at least twice.

We know how experienced Marin Cilic is on the grass, but that is not the same for Emil Ruusuvuori who is enjoying this week. More than half of his career wins on the grass have been earned over the last week, while the Ruusuvuori serve has been working really well on the grass in the two tournaments has competed in over the last couple of weeks.

However, it has to be accepted that some of those numbers can be easily skewed by one or two really strong performances and I think that is the case for the Finnish player. I do think there is a proper player in Emil Ruusuvuori and one we will see competing in big tournaments throughout his career, but he was well beaten by Ilya Ivashka last week in Hertogenbosch and I do think the grass court nous of Marin Cilic is a huge challenge to face.

Both will be reliant on their serves, but the feeling is that Marin Cilic could find one or two more openings in this Quarter Final and that can see him edge to the cover in a tight win. The win over Lopez will give Emil Ruusuvuori belief in his tennis, but Marin Cilic is still playing at a really high level and that can see him play the big points efficiently to move through to another Semi Final on this surface at Queens Club.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Oscar Otte-Karen Khachanov Over 23.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Filip Krajinovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Veronika Kudermetova @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-19, - 10.56 Units (70 Units Staked, - 15.09% Yield)

Thursday, 16 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 16th)

This has largely been a week of disappointment for the Tennis Picks, but we have only just moved past the middle of the events being played and there is still an opportunity for a strong finish.

We are going to have the Quarter Final line ups completed for all four tournaments by the end of Thursday and there are some tough conditions to deal with as the weather heats up. Most of the matches are scheduled for the hottest part of the day, which increases the challenges for the players going onto court, but there are big prizes on offer and that should be motivation enough for all still involved.


Ryan Peniston - 1.5 games v Francisco Cerundolo: We have become so accustomed to young players joining the Tour that the American College route is still considered a unique approach to joining the Tour.

Cameron Norrie and John Isner are two players who have shown it is not a bad approach having felt the College scene hardened them to playing pro tennis in a competitive environment, but one in which they were not having to suffer loss after loss to dent the confidence of a young player.

The latest to head to the Tour after playing College Tennis is Ryan Peniston and the British player upset Casper Ruud in the First Round at Queens, although it was not the seismic upset that the commentators would have you believe. Instead he showcased strong character to just keep Casper Ruud at bay and a serve that can make Ryan Peniston an effective grass court player.

Backing up the win of his career is always the big challenge for players, but I don't think Ryan Peniston could have asked for a better opponent. While the British player has produced a solid 5-2 record on the grass courts this season, Francisco Cerundolo is playing in just his fifth ever grass court match having come up short in trying to Qualify for Wimbledon in 2021 and then beating Pedro Martinez in the First Round.

I am not sure how much you can read into those limited grass court appearances- beating an opponent who does not have a lot of grass court expectations in the First Round was taking advantage of a kind draw and Francisco Cerundolo has to expect a much greater challenge in the Second Round.

So much feels like it will be on Ryan Peniston's racquet who has a lefty serve that can be very efficient on this surface. In 2022, Ryan Peniston has held 86% of his service games played and I do think that will put pressure on someone like Francisco Cerundolo still learning his way on the grass.

Wins over Adrian Mannarino, Jack Draper and Jiri Vesely is very solid grass court form for Ryan Peniston and I think this is a very winnable match as long as he has not become overwhelmed by the attention the win over Casper Ruud will have given him. His return does need to be improved if Ryan Peniston is going to really charge up the World Rankings, but Francisco Cerundolo does not possess the biggest of serves and I think the British player can move through to the Quarter Final.


Sam Querrey - 1.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: It has been a long time since I have backed Sam Querrey to win a match, but the big serving American is enjoying his time on the grass courts since arriving in Europe and the form is hard to ignore in a Second Round match like this one.

That is probably a touch disrespectful to Filip Krajinovic who upset Jenson Brooksby in the First Round, but he now faces an American opponent with a lot more grass court experience than the one he has beaten. It was also a first win on the grass courts for a number of years and Filip Krajinovic has become a player that tends to pick up his cheque at Wimbledon and then move onto other events.

Again that may sound disrespectful, but his results have suggested that in recent years with little grass court experience being built before heading to Wimbledon. That indicates he doesn't enjoy playing on the surface, although Filip Krajinovic may feel the win in the First Round is the turnaround he needs.

He did not play as well as he would have liked and will have to serve a lot better if Filip Krajinovic is going to surprisingly reach the Quarter Final at Queens Club. The Serb did hold 80% of his service games played against Jenson Brooksby, but he only won 58% of his service points and the young American had plenty of chances to make that a much more competitive match.

Sam Querrey is not exactly known for his returning prowess, but he has broken in 22% of the return games played on the grass in his eight matches on the surface in 2022. That number is impressive enough when you think Querrey has held 96% of his service games played and he is a former Champion at this event.

The big server has won three matches to reach the Second Round and I do think Sam Querrey's ability to roll through some service games will be very key to the outcome of the match in what are likely to be hot conditions in London. Putting mental pressure on an opponent to have to work to hold serve can wear on players and I do think Sam Querrey's grass court experiences will be another factor giving him the edge in the match.

Filip Krajinovic has beaten Sam Querrey on an indoor hard court before and the grass in Queens is not playing as fast as some of the players have hoped, but the bigger serve of the American can set up shorter points and I think he can win and cover on his way to another Quarter Final in this part of West London.


Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 games v Denis Kudla: The conditions are considered slow by the players who have already been out on the court and the balls are heavier than they are used to, but for Matteo Berrettini it doesn't seem to make the slightest bit of difference.

After winning the title in Stuttgart, the defending Champion got the better of Daniel Evans in the First Round at Queens and has seen many of the top names already departing the tournament. Once again, Matteo Berrettini will be considered the favourite to win another grass court event and he has certainly become one of the best players on the Tour when it comes to this surface.

The serve is a massive weapon for Matteo Berrettini, but he also tends to get a huge amount of first serves in play and that makes it very difficult to break him. He did have to face off seven break points in the win over Daniel Evans, so there is some encouragement for his opponents, but Matteo Berrettini is playing with complete confidence on the surface and will feel his serve is one that puts a lot of mental strain on the opponent.

The latest to try and face up to the Berrettini serve is a player who has taken advantage of Andy Murray's withdrawal from the tournament and Denis Kudla holds one win over an Italian at Queens Club this year. He needed three sets to beat Lorenzo Sonego having entered the main draw as a Lucky Loser, while the American reached the Final of a grass court Challenger played in Surbiton already this season.

Denis Kudla has always had a pretty good grass court record and has produced plenty of wins on the surface throughout his career, and he has a 7-14 record against top 50 Ranked players on the surface. While not the most impressive, it is solid enough for a player who has never made the top 50 of the World Rankings in his own career.

The American has held 82% of his service games on the grass this season and Denis Kudla has held 75% of his service games against the top 50 Ranked players faced on the surface. That is a number that will be encouraging for Kudla as he bids to face Matteo Berrettini, but their sole previous meeting on a grass court ended in a routine win for the latter in 2019.

With the conditions as they are, Matteo Berrettini may feel he can take a few more swings on the return of serve than he might expect on the grass and I think his own serve will put Denis Kudla under an immense amount of pressure. The Italian is much improved since these two last met on the Tour in 2019 and even in the three matches in that season, Matteo Berrettini held 94% of his service games compared with Denis Kudla's 77% mark.

I think Matteo Berrettini should be well rested after winning the title in Stuttgart last week and playing one match since Sunday. It should mean another big serving day can be produced and I expect Denis Kudla to play one or two loose service games that gives Matteo Berrettini the chance to pull clear for a solid win.

MY PICKS: Ryan Peniston - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liudmila Samsonova @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Laslo Djere + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev-Ilya Ivashka Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-13, - 7.56 Units (48 Units Staked, - 15.75% Yield)

Tuesday, 14 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 15th)

A mixed set of results on Tuesday means I have not really had the kind of bounce back day as I was hoping for, but it could, and perhaps should, have been better.

At one point it was looking really worrying with Emil Ruusuvuori struggling to complete a win that should have been much more comfortable, but it could have been worse and I will just have to begin the turn of this week on Wednesday.


Alexander Bublik-Marin Cilic over 23.5 games: After reaching the French Open Semi Final, Marin Cilic has to be heading into the remainder of the 2022 season with plenty of confidence behind him. The grass court season is one that could be particularly important for Marin Cilic who has shown himself to be a pretty solid competitor on the surface throughout his career, a surface that many other players do not enjoy.

With the confidence of the run in Paris behind him, Marin Cilic could be one of those players that could be very dangerous in the draw at Wimbledon. The third Grand Slam of the season will have Novak Djokovic entering as favourite, but Marin Cilic will not be overly concerned by too many other names in the draw and there feels like a real opportunity in front of him.

This time twelve months ago, Marin Cilic was Ranked at 37, but he is back inside the top 20 of the World Rankings and is a former two time Queens Champion. He had a tougher than expected First Round win over Liam Broady, but having his footing back on top of the grass courts should stand him in good stead and Marin Cilic is the favourite in this Second Round match.

Last year he won the title in Stuttgart and I do think the time spent on court in the First Round will benefit Marin Cilic.

He takes on Alexander Bublik who looked to be on his way to a First Round win before Lorenzo Musetti retired from the match and in recent seasons he has shown he can perform on the grass courts. A disappointing loss to Andy Murray in the Second Round in Stuttgart last week has been franked by the fact the British player reached the Final there, while Alexander Bublik has a serve that can be very effective on the faster surfaces and on the grass.

Over the last twelve months, Alexander Bublik has held 87% of his service games played on the grass courts and I do think he will give Marin Cilic something to think about. The long levers may mean Cilic is able to get more balls back in play, but their previous two matches on the Tour suggests it will be tough to earn the breaks.

Both of those have been played on the clay courts and Alexander Bublik has won 63% of his service points on a slower surface, although Marin Cilic has won each match. In both occasions, the match has needed a deciding set though and it does feel it is possible for Bublik to serve well enough to make this very competitive.

Marin Cilic's serve has been a big problem for Alexander Bublik to deal with on the clay and it will be that much tougher on the grass. I think the favourite will be able to roll through many of his own service games, but Alexander Bublik can serve effectively on this surface and it may see him force at least two tight sets, or perhaps even steal one and force this match into a decider like the previous two matches between these players have required.


Karolina Pliskova v Bianca Andreescu: I am a pretty big fan of Bianca Andreescu and I do think she is a player that could be competitive at the very top of the WTA Tour consistently if she is over the injuries that have blighted her career since winning the US Open.

The hard court season is coming up and there are limited points for the Canadian to defend before the final Grand Slam of the 2022 season begins in New York City and so I would expect a significant jump in the World Ranking.

She could be a potentially dangerous player in the draw at Wimbledon later this month, although Bianca Andreescu has not really shown a lot of affinity with the grass courts on the pro Tour. Her First Round win was a solid one, but it was a tough match for Andreescu and the feeling is that she is going to have to be a lot better if she is going to progress further in Berlin.

Injury has made it a tough year for Karolina Pliskova and she is coming off a disappointing Roland Garros, although the big server looks much more at home on the grass and hard courts rather than the clay courts throughout her career.

In 2019 Karolina Pliskova won a title on the grass courts and in 2021 she reached the Wimbledon Final after a couple of underwhelming performances in warm up events for the third Grand Slam of the season. After the early exit in Paris, it was perhaps surprising that Karolina Pliskova did not add a grass court tournament to her schedule last week, but she was a strong winner in the First Round having won twelve games in a row after dropping the first set to Kaia Kanepi.

The serve is the important weapon for Pliskova in this match and if she is able to back that up, I would expect her to have chances to at least attack the Bianca Andreescu serve.

Karolina Pliskova has to expect to get a few more cheaper points behind the first serve and Bianca Andreescu is still trying to work out the best approach to her tennis on this surface. Having to work hard to win service games on the grass means needing to get used to the movement needed and the Canadian has yet to really get to grips on playing on the grass.

I actually thought the Wimbledon Runner Up from last year would have been a stronger favourite than a pick 'em, although that could be down to the inconsistent form we have seen from Karolina Pliskova on her return. Being back on the grass courts should help and I think Karolina Pliskova is able to edge past Bianca Andreescu thanks to the first serve.

MY PICKS: Alexander Bublik-Marin Cilic Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Draper-Emil Ruusuvuori Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-Ugo Humbert Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-8, - 4.42 Units (30 Units Staked, - 14.73% Yield)

Monday, 13 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 14th)

It's never an easy day when the player you've picked is up in a strong position and the opponent retires from the match, especially when the little moments have gone against you for much of the day.

At least a late winning Pick helped avoid a disastrous start to the week, although I do have work to do after the first day at the tournaments being played on the grass courts. I had a tough moment or two last week, but managed to turn that around so there is still some positive momentum to build upon before Wimbledon begins.


Jenson Brooksby - 2.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: There is limited grass court experience behind him, but reaching the Final in Newport last season is a positive for Jenson Brooksby to take into this month of the Tour. He was disappointingly dumped out of the tournament in Hertogenbosch in the Second Round last week as Brooksby made his 2022 debut on the surface, but the build towards Wimbledon will continue in London this week.

The young American is considered to be one of the brightest talents from the country on the ATP Tour side of the sport, and Jenson Brooksby is up at a career high World Ranking. With no points to defend before Wimbledon, there is every chance that career high will be further improved before the return to the North American hard courts.

Much of that will depend on how many wins he can pick up between now and the end of July and Jenson Brooksby is the favourite in this First Round match in London despite the early defeat last week. He will be the first to admit that he needs to be a little more convincing behind the serve, but Jenson Brooksby did return well in Hertogenbosch and I think that gives him a real chance of winning this match.

It also helps he is facing Filip Krajinovic who has not won a grass court match since a Qualifier in Nottingham all the way back in 2015.

In recent years, Filip Krajinovic has only turned up at Wimbledon and lost in the First Round in each of his last three matches there, while he was a First Qualifying Round loser in the year before this streak begun. You have to respect the effectiveness of the serve on the grass courts, but Filip Krajinovic has not gotten to grips with the return of serve and I do think that will see this match lean towards the young American.

You would like to see Jenson Brooksby serve well to keep his opponent contained, but he should have more joy against the returning Filip Krajinovic will bring to the court. With a strong couple of matches returning serve last week, I think Brooksby will have his moments to break the Serb's serve in this one and I think Jenson Brooksby moves through to the Second Round behind a solid win.


Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 games v Quentin Halys: Any player that can come through the Qualifiers has to be respected considering they have two wins behind them and will be plenty familiar with the conditions at the tournament.

However, any edge to either of these players is negated by the fact that the opponent has also won a couple of Qualifiers here and I have to give the edge to Emil Ruusuvuori.

The younger player was beaten in the Second Round in Hertogenbosch last week, but Emil Ruusuvuori's game looks well suited to the grass courts. His serve has been effective with 87% of games held on the surface in his matches so far in 2022, and that has backed up the 83% effort from last season, while Emil Ruusuvuori has won 39% of return points on a difficult surface.

Quentin Halys has been serving really well in his four grass court matches in 2022, but he is operating at a level we have not seen from him before and I am wondering if it is sustainable. The serve has been effective for the Frenchman in his career on the grass courts, but his return game has usually been a hindrance and I am not sure he can maintain the 27% number of returning games ending with a break for the entirety of the grass court season.

The career number is down at 12% and I do think Emil Ruusuvuori has a higher ceiling than Quentin Halys and he can show that here.

Both will feel they can serve their way out of trouble, but I will look for the more consistent level that Emil Ruusuvuori can produce to show up on the return of serve.

The two players will be confident with the Qualifying wins behind them, but I will look for the Finnish player to back that up and cover this spread on the way through.


Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 games v Dan Evans: There was some initial rustiness in his performance in Stuttgart, but the return to grass court tennis suited Matteo Berrettini down to the ground as he won another title on the surface.

Most impressive is that he won that title after missing the entire clay court season with an injury and he will head to London to defend the Queens title he won in 2021. It won't be easy with the limited time to recover from the exploits of winning the title in Stuttgart, but the Italian will have good memories of playing here and his opponent will also have some residue fatigue to deal with.

Daniel Evans won the Challenger event played in Nottingham last week as he got his grass court campaign underway and that means he has had little rest between tournaments too. Of course his travel to London will be different compared with Matteo Berrettini's from another country, but I don't think professional tennis players are unfamiliar with having to cope and Berrettini will be arriving with plenty of confidence.

His serve is a mighty weapon on the grass courts and he can get himself out of tough spots, while Matteo Berrettini is able to free up and attack return games with some of the pressure taken off by the power of the serve. Over the last twelve months, Matteo Berrettini has produced a 15-1 record on the grass courts and has been able to hold 93% of his service games played, while he was able to hold 94% of service games payed in Stuttgart on his way to the title there.

It puts a huge amount of pressure on Daniel Evans, although the British player has a surprisingly efficient serve on the grass courts.

Over the last twelve months, Evans has held 90% of his service games played with 66% of service points won, while he does have the edge when it comes to the returning numbers.

However, the numbers come down pretty significantly on both the serve and return when only looking at Daniel Evans' performances against top 50 Ranked opponents in the last twelve months. And against someone like Matteo Berrettini, Daniel Evans has the additional pressure on knowing any drop in serve likely means the end of the set against a power server like the Italian.

Experience will tell Daniel Evans that too having been beaten by Matteo Berrettini at this tournament twelve months ago.

The Quarter Final between them was competitive, but Matteo Berrettini's serve proved to be the big difference with 75% of service points won compared with Daniel Evans' mark of 66%. It led to the former finding nine break point chances compared with Evans' two break point opportunities and I do think the Stuttgart Champion and defending Champion here will be able to get his defence off to a promising start.

MY PICKS: Jenson Brooksby - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-Maxime Cressy Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Shelby Rogers - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liudmila Samsonova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-3, - 4.56 Units (8 Units Staked, - 57% Yield)