Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 14th June)

I guess I should have been wary of Friday the 13th with both selections falling down the wayside, but the Semi Final Round has been reached at the four big tournaments being played and that offers an opportunity to bounce back.

Elena Rybakina never really got close to covering, but Madison Keys had her chances and was effectively punished for a slow start, even if she couldn't care less having found a way to bounce back and progress past Diana Shnaider.

These early grass court matches could be invaluable for those players who are competing before Wimbledon and all that are still involved this week will be looking to secure a title and important World Ranking points to take forward.

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 1.5 games v Elise Mertens: Two of the top three Seeds have worked their way through to the Hertogenbosch Semi Final and the winner of this match is going to be a favourite to win the title on Sunday.

You can't argue with the form that Elise Mertens has put together in her three wins in the tournament with a bagel handed out in each of the three matches played. The World Number 25 has yet to drop a set and Mertens has to be really happy with the quality of serving she has produced in the tournament.

It was not the most productive of clay court seasons for the Belgian, but she is a comfortable grass court performer.

Winning matches will always give a player confidence and winning in the manner that Elise Mertens has been doing in Hertogenbosch can only add to that belief. However, it should be noted that all of the players she has faced in the tournament have been Ranked between 76 and 85 and so facing the Number 2 Seed is going to be a significant increase in level of opponent.

It also becomes a much tougher test for Elise Mertens when noting how well Ekaterina Alexandrova has been able to play on the grass in recent years.

An illness forced her to miss Wimbledon in 2024, but the World Number 15 reached the Fourth Round in SW19 in 2023 and she is set for another strong run.

Ekaterina Alexandrova has been given more of a test to reach the Hertogenbosch Semi Final, but she will have benefited from that and has a win over a player Ranked inside the top 40. The second serve needs to be given a bit more protection if Alexandrova is going to win the title here, but she will be confident when facing an opponent she has gotten the better of more often than not in previous matches.

The higher Ranked player has won three of the four previous matches against Elise Mertens, although they are meeting on grass for the first time.

Those wins can still play an important mental role and Ekaterina Alexandrova has really enjoyed playing at this tournament, which will also help. She won back to back titles here in Hertogenbosch in 2022 and 2023 before losing in the Semi Final last year and Ekaterina Alexandrova can get the better of Elise Mertens and move through to the Final with a solid win behind her.

Elena Gabriela Ruse - 1.5 games v Elisabetta Cocciaretto: The higher Ranked player coming into this Semi Final is Elena Gabriela Ruse, but she was forced to win a couple of Qualifying matches to take her place in the main draw.

In some situations that may not feel ideal, but Elena Gabriela Ruse has used the momentum to shine through to the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch having won all of her matches in straight sets.

It should be noted that the World Number 80 has not really faced a deep competition to reach this Round, although the win over Bianca Andreescu in the Quarter Final deserves respect. The latter is returning from another injury layoff though and Elena Gabriela Ruse has won matches perhaps as she should do considering the Ranking of the opponents.

She is facing another player Ranked outside the top 100 in this Semi Final, but Elisabetta Cocciaretto has won a couple of matches against players Ranked higher than herself to take her own place in the final four.

Like her opponent, there has not been a deep appreciation of the grass as far as Elisabetta Cocciaretto is concerned, but she will have gained confidence from the level she has been producing here this week.

Both have served well, which has to happen on this surface, but it is Elena Gabriela Ruse who has been offering up a bit more on the return.

In a close match, that could be key and Ruse has shown a bit more on the grass in the last couple of years, and she could keep the momentum going in what has been a really strong week.

MY PICKS: Ekaterina Alexandrova - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)

Elena Gabriela Ruse - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-2, + 0.65 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 14th)

It's never an easy day when the player you've picked is up in a strong position and the opponent retires from the match, especially when the little moments have gone against you for much of the day.

At least a late winning Pick helped avoid a disastrous start to the week, although I do have work to do after the first day at the tournaments being played on the grass courts. I had a tough moment or two last week, but managed to turn that around so there is still some positive momentum to build upon before Wimbledon begins.

Jenson Brooksby - 2.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: There is limited grass court experience behind him, but reaching the Final in Newport last season is a positive for Jenson Brooksby to take into this month of the Tour. He was disappointingly dumped out of the tournament in Hertogenbosch in the Second Round last week as Brooksby made his 2022 debut on the surface, but the build towards Wimbledon will continue in London this week.

The young American is considered to be one of the brightest talents from the country on the ATP Tour side of the sport, and Jenson Brooksby is up at a career high World Ranking. With no points to defend before Wimbledon, there is every chance that career high will be further improved before the return to the North American hard courts.

Much of that will depend on how many wins he can pick up between now and the end of July and Jenson Brooksby is the favourite in this First Round match in London despite the early defeat last week. He will be the first to admit that he needs to be a little more convincing behind the serve, but Jenson Brooksby did return well in Hertogenbosch and I think that gives him a real chance of winning this match.

It also helps he is facing Filip Krajinovic who has not won a grass court match since a Qualifier in Nottingham all the way back in 2015.

In recent years, Filip Krajinovic has only turned up at Wimbledon and lost in the First Round in each of his last three matches there, while he was a First Qualifying Round loser in the year before this streak begun. You have to respect the effectiveness of the serve on the grass courts, but Filip Krajinovic has not gotten to grips with the return of serve and I do think that will see this match lean towards the young American.

You would like to see Jenson Brooksby serve well to keep his opponent contained, but he should have more joy against the returning Filip Krajinovic will bring to the court. With a strong couple of matches returning serve last week, I think Brooksby will have his moments to break the Serb's serve in this one and I think Jenson Brooksby moves through to the Second Round behind a solid win.

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 games v Quentin Halys: Any player that can come through the Qualifiers has to be respected considering they have two wins behind them and will be plenty familiar with the conditions at the tournament.

However, any edge to either of these players is negated by the fact that the opponent has also won a couple of Qualifiers here and I have to give the edge to Emil Ruusuvuori.

The younger player was beaten in the Second Round in Hertogenbosch last week, but Emil Ruusuvuori's game looks well suited to the grass courts. His serve has been effective with 87% of games held on the surface in his matches so far in 2022, and that has backed up the 83% effort from last season, while Emil Ruusuvuori has won 39% of return points on a difficult surface.

Quentin Halys has been serving really well in his four grass court matches in 2022, but he is operating at a level we have not seen from him before and I am wondering if it is sustainable. The serve has been effective for the Frenchman in his career on the grass courts, but his return game has usually been a hindrance and I am not sure he can maintain the 27% number of returning games ending with a break for the entirety of the grass court season.

The career number is down at 12% and I do think Emil Ruusuvuori has a higher ceiling than Quentin Halys and he can show that here.

Both will feel they can serve their way out of trouble, but I will look for the more consistent level that Emil Ruusuvuori can produce to show up on the return of serve.

The two players will be confident with the Qualifying wins behind them, but I will look for the Finnish player to back that up and cover this spread on the way through.

Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 games v Dan Evans: There was some initial rustiness in his performance in Stuttgart, but the return to grass court tennis suited Matteo Berrettini down to the ground as he won another title on the surface.

Most impressive is that he won that title after missing the entire clay court season with an injury and he will head to London to defend the Queens title he won in 2021. It won't be easy with the limited time to recover from the exploits of winning the title in Stuttgart, but the Italian will have good memories of playing here and his opponent will also have some residue fatigue to deal with.

Daniel Evans won the Challenger event played in Nottingham last week as he got his grass court campaign underway and that means he has had little rest between tournaments too. Of course his travel to London will be different compared with Matteo Berrettini's from another country, but I don't think professional tennis players are unfamiliar with having to cope and Berrettini will be arriving with plenty of confidence.

His serve is a mighty weapon on the grass courts and he can get himself out of tough spots, while Matteo Berrettini is able to free up and attack return games with some of the pressure taken off by the power of the serve. Over the last twelve months, Matteo Berrettini has produced a 15-1 record on the grass courts and has been able to hold 93% of his service games played, while he was able to hold 94% of service games payed in Stuttgart on his way to the title there.

It puts a huge amount of pressure on Daniel Evans, although the British player has a surprisingly efficient serve on the grass courts.

Over the last twelve months, Evans has held 90% of his service games played with 66% of service points won, while he does have the edge when it comes to the returning numbers.

However, the numbers come down pretty significantly on both the serve and return when only looking at Daniel Evans' performances against top 50 Ranked opponents in the last twelve months. And against someone like Matteo Berrettini, Daniel Evans has the additional pressure on knowing any drop in serve likely means the end of the set against a power server like the Italian.

Experience will tell Daniel Evans that too having been beaten by Matteo Berrettini at this tournament twelve months ago.

The Quarter Final between them was competitive, but Matteo Berrettini's serve proved to be the big difference with 75% of service points won compared with Daniel Evans' mark of 66%. It led to the former finding nine break point chances compared with Evans' two break point opportunities and I do think the Stuttgart Champion and defending Champion here will be able to get his defence off to a promising start.

MY PICKS: Jenson Brooksby - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sebastian Korda - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz-Maxime Cressy Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Shelby Rogers - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Liudmila Samsonova - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-3, - 4.56 Units (8 Units Staked, - 57% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 14th)

The rain is playing havoc across Europe and the tennis events this week have not really been able to avoid it either. For the most part the ATP Stuttgart tournament has stayed on schedule, but that is not the case elsewhere on what should have been Quarter Final day at all of the events being played.

It could mean some double duty for a few of the players on Friday, but the majority of the Quarter Finals have been set and will hopefully be completed on the day.


I was disappointed with the way the Thursday selections went and a bit frustrated with some of my decision making. The good news is that those poor decisions were recognised and hopefully will be turned around before the week is up.


Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 games v Denis Kudla: The grass court season is a good time for Denis Kudla and his record on the surface is perhaps not a complete indication of how well he can play. A Semi Final run in Surbiton ended with a harsh defeat to Victor Troicki, but the American has refused to let that get him down and he has played well on his way to a Quarter Final in Stuttgart.

A battling win over Gael Monfils saw Kudla dig deep and come through a final set tie-breaker in a match that lasted close to two and a half hours. I do wonder if that is going to play some part in this Quarter Final with no rest days between matches as you have in the Grand Slams, but the quicker points on the grass does help with any recovery.

Denis Kudla has always got a real bite out of his serve on the grass and over the last couple of seasons he has proved to be someone who can use that to pressurise opponents on the return. The American is going to need all of that returning ability when he takes on Matteo Berrettini who is an improving player on the Tour and moved into the top 30 of the World Rankings.

It should mean Berrettini is in a position to be Seeded at Wimbledon and his two wins in Stuttgart have not only been impressive for who he has beaten, but also the manner in which the Italian has won. Wins over Nick Kyrgios and Karen Khachanov have come in straight sets and Berretini has not faced a break point in either match as the big serve has set him up to control points from the off.

He is getting plenty out of the return too and I do think Berrettini can outhit Kudla in this big serving match. I am anticipating both players to run through some service games without too many issues, but Berrettini is someone who looks like he could be a comfortable grass courter and with the right draw at Wimbledon he may be able to earn plenty of Ranking points too.

Both players will be familiar with one another as they play for the sixth time since the Australian Open in January 2018. So far it is Kudla who leads 3-2, but the two matches in 2019 have been split and Berrettini has looked the better player without quite winning both matches.

Those two matches have come on different surfaces with Kudla winning a hard court match and Berrettini winning on the clay. Those results might have been expected, but it is Berrettini who looked stronger behind serve in both matches, but he was not able to deal with the pressurised break points as well as he would have liked. That could be a problem on the grass where it is so hard to retrieve breaks of serve, but I think Berrettini can edge past Kudla in this one and he may have enough to cover this number too.


Milos Raonic - 2.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: After missing the entire clay court season, Milos Raonic must be happy that he is back and winning matches on the Tour. The next month is important for him to prevent a slide down the World Rankings with plenty of points to defend, and that includes a run to the Final in Stuttgart twelve months ago.

The Canadian has beaten Alexei Popyrin and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on his way to the Quarter Final, but both matches have taken three sets and Raonic has spent plenty of time on the court. That has to be a concern for a player who has been off the Tour for as long as Raonic has been, but he is serving very well and that is always going to put some pressure on opponents.

In this tournament Raonic has held 97% of the service games he has played and he is someone whose serve has always been the most effective on this surface. The only reason matches have not been that straight-forward for Raonic is his poor returning numbers so far, but he may get a few more chances against Marton Fucsovics.

All credit has to be given to Fucsovics who has beaten Jaume Munar and Nikoloz Basilashvili and who has held 85% of the service games he has played. However it should be noted that this number is far above his usual levels produced on the grass courts and I do think he will eventually see it come down to a more consistent standard that Fucsovics has been able to produce.

His returning is superior to Raonic's, but Fucsovics will have to show he has learnt plenty from the 6-4, 6-2 defeat suffered to the Canadian on this court twelve months ago. On that day Fucsovics could not get his teeth into the Raonic serve at all and it was the higher Ranked player who was more comfortable when it came to the return and I do think something similar could occur in this Quarter Final.

You can't ignore the amount of time Raonic has spent on the court on his return to the Tour, but I think the serve does make his life easier. If Raonic continues to find his marks as he has been, I think he will have the majority of break points and can have one of his more straight-forward wins of the week.


Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Christian Garin: There was a time when Borna Coric was perhaps not at his most comfortable on the grass courts, but in 2019 he is looking to follow on from his most successful year on the surface. I have mentioned before that the small sample from the three or four tournaments on the grass can make it difficult to really get a good read of how players can and have been performing on the surface, but the signs for the young Croatian are good.

Last year he reached the Final in Halle and I think it may be a positive sign that he has taken in the tournament in Hertogenbosch. My feeling is that Coric does believe he can perform well enough on the grass if he gives himself time to get a few matches under his belt and the come from behind win over Taylor Fritz will boost the mindset.

Borna Coric played well in that match and his serve proved to be a key weapon, while his return is always going to be one that can put opponents under pressure.

In this Quarter Final Coric is taking on Christian Garin who is another young, improving player on the Tour. In the last couple of years Garin has only played at Wimbledon with his Ranking giving him a place in the main draw, but defeats in the First Round each time suggested he might not be at his best on the grass.

I am still not quite sure how comfortable Garin is on the grass, but back to back wins in Hertogenbosch will help. His serve is perhaps not as effective as Coric's, but Garin has been returning very well in his two matches here with breaks of serve in 45% of return games played.

Again I will mention the relatively small sample and the percentage of points won on the return are markedly up on his previous performances on the surface. I am not sure Garin will have the same kind of success when he faces Borna Coric whose serve should set him up a little better than Garin over the course of this match.

It could be a fun match with both players capable on the return, but I think Coric is the superior grass courter and he can show that with a win and a cover of this spread.

MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-9, - 5.74 Units (32 Units Staked, - 17.94% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 14th)

Yesterday was a really mixed bag for the Tennis Picks which saw all four Picks from Hertogenbosch come out on the wrong side, but the other four selections returning as winners which means it is a small loss for the day.

The week is still in a good position, but Thursday is another day to try and get on top with a number of matches looking like they fit into what I am looking for.

It isn't always the case on a week to week basis on the Tennis Tour, but the first three days have provided a number of options to back and Thursday is proving to be no different.

I've analysed the two men's selections and added the women's selections below.


Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Evgeny Donskoy: The return to the grass courts in a much healthier state than twelve months ago could be huge for Richard Gasquet who has always produced some solid results on the surface. Last season there were doubts about how he was feeling at this time of the season but Gasquet still managed to reach two Tour Semi Finals on the grass courts.

The first match on the surface can be a tough transition especially coming in off the clay courts, but Gasquet is very experienced on the grass and I don't expect it to take him too long to get his feet under him.

He can't really afford to take too much time against Evgeny Donskoy who had a very comfortable win in the First Round here. In recent years Donskoy has struggled for the consistency which could have him playing much higher up the Tour level, but he can be dangerous on the clay courts with some good looking numbers in his wins on the surface.

Donskoy has to still prove that he can bring his form from matches against players lower down the Ranking into those when he faces some of the better players around. His performance on the grass courts against opponents inside the top 100 of the World Ranking are significantly weaker than his overall numbers, while Donskoy does not get enough of the return to put his opponents under concerted pressure.

He may have some chances against the Gasquet serve which can be a little up and down especially if Donskoy sees a lot of second serves which he can attack from the off. However I would expect Gasquet to start picking the serve of Donskoy and forcing the Russian to beat him from the back of the court and I would give the Frenchman a significant edge in those rallies as they develop.

The spread is a funny number as a slow start from Gasquet could make it very difficult to cover. Donskoy also had two relatively competitive losses on the grass last year, but Gasquet could be the best player he has played on this surface and I think Gasquet will find a break more in each set of a straight sets win in this match.


Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: This is a Second Round match in Stuttgart and one in which I would have thought Feliciano Lopez would have been an even stronger favourite to win. His game is still perfectly suited to the grass courts and I would expect Lopez to have too much for Gilles Simon.

It is Lopez who leads the head to head between these players 4-2, but it more interesting to note that three of those wins have come on the grass courts including last year here in Stuttgart.

There is no doubting that Lopez is the superior player on the grass courts and his numbers have backed that up as well as the head to head between these two players. Both have had comfortable wins to get through the First Round here in Stuttgart, and it is Lopez' strong serving which has proven to be a key for him on the surface.

I do have to have some reservations about the poor returning Lopez generally displays, although 2017 was a stand out year for him on the grass courts. The Spaniard is facing an opponent who has struggled with his own return on the grass courts and I think Simon won't be able to bunt too many balls back into play with Lopez willing to get up to the net and cut off the loopy defensive shots.

The Simon serving numbers have slipped in each of the last four seasons in terms of hold percentage as well as points percentage won behind that shot. That has to be a concern for Simon who has been convincingly outplayed by Lopez in all three defeats to him on the grass courts throughout their careers.

It feels that Lopez will be able to get in front on the scoreboard and that can put enough pressure on Simon to see him crack behind his own serve a couple of times in this match. That should be good enough for Lopez to work his way to a win and a cover in this Second Round encounter as Lopez gets ready for another strong run during the grass court season.

MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kirsten Flipkens + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-6, + 4.36 Units (30 Units Staked, + 14.53% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (June 14th)

I was disappointed to hear the news that Rafael Nadal will not be coming to the tournament at Queens this season as I was looking forward to finding the time to see the Spaniard.

I was lucky enough to see Nadal's last appearance on a grass court before this season, although that was unfortunately at the end of another early exit at Wimbledon. While he is getting himself ready physically and mentally for the third Slam of the season, I don't think many will be rushing out to back Nadal considering how little success he has had in SW19 since reaching the Final in 2011.

The other bit of news of interest coming out on Tuesday was Roger Federer's interview where he admitted that he is expecting to play a full schedule for the rest of the season having missed the clay court events over the last two months. That is good news for the fans and the ATP Tour in general and Federer will likely go into Wimbledon as the second favourite to win the title.

It will be interesting to see how Federer plays on the grass courts here in Stuttgart and next week in Halle to see if he is a justified short price. I've felt Wimbledon and the US Open would be his best chances to add Grand Slam titles over the last few years and the confidence Federer has earned over the first three months of 2017 will certainly make people believe in him, although the draw is going to be important for the Swiss superstar.


The tennis picks went 3-2 on Tuesday which is important to get this week into a winning position after a mixed Monday. The matches are beginning to come thick and fast across the four tournaments being played this week and Wednesday looks like a day where I have found a number of matches that are appealing to be backed.

I have just been a little short of time this evening to put together a full thread as usual and instead have to put my picks below.

MY PICKS: Mischa Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-4, + 1.74 Units (18 Units Staked, + 9.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (June 13th-14th)

As many of you will know, the European Championships are being played in France this year and I will be one of thousands of fans descending on the country to watch a match or two. I have been fortunate to land tickets for the Belgium match against Italy in Lyon and then will be travelling to St Etienne on Tuesday to see Portugal take on Iceland.

That means I will not be able to cover the Wednesday matches to be played in the tennis tournaments this week as I will be returning to the United Kingdom late on Wednesday evening and I am not taking my laptop with me to France.

However I am able to cover the First Round matches I like in Halle and Queens which will be played on Monday and Tuesday, weather permitting, which I will place in this one thread. I will then have picks for the Thursday matches on Wednesday evening and complete the events this week as usual.


David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Andreas Seppi: Last week might have been a disappointment for David Ferrer as he was beaten in the Quarter Final in Hertogenbosch. The Spaniard has fallen to the World Number 14 spot in the Rankings and it is beginning to feel like his best days are behind more and more.

In saying that, I think Ferrer will be very comfortable with his First Round match in Halle as he takes on Andreas Seppi who he has beaten nine times, every time they have played on the main Tour. Seppi has had some good results on the grass and he did reach the Final in Halle last year, but the Italian has suffered some poor form through 2016.

Seppi has only won one set against Ferrer in the past and his game does match up well for Ferrer. Without a really big serve, Seppi is forced to work around the court against Ferrer and usually I would say the latter is going to win the extended rallies more often than not, even if he is not at his best at the moment.

Being at his best might not matter and I think Ferrer is able to come through with a 64, 64 win and move into the Second Round.


Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Steve Johnson: Steve Johnson has a big serve and an aggressive style of play off the ground so you would think he would be able to be quite effective on the grass. Unfortunately for the American, he has been unable to really put it together when playing on this surface and that might be a real issue for him when he plays someone like Richard Gasquet who is comfortable on grass.

The Frenchman had a very strong Roland Garros as he reached the Quarter Final for the first time in his career in his home tournament. He should have some confidence to take into Queens as Gasquet has won titles on grass before while he has twice been a Semi Finalist at Wimbledon including last year.

Gasquet will need to serve well to try and put Johnson under pressure and raise the discomfort the latter might be feeling on the grass.

If he can do that, I think Gasquet will feel very good in this match up and can find his way to a couple of breaks of serve which may be enough for him to cover this number. Johnson was beaten very easily by Stefan Kozlov last week in Hertogenbosch and I can see Gasquet find his way to a 63, 64 win in this one.


Feliciano Lopez + 1.5 games v Marin Cilic: These two players are both very solid on the grass with some very good results on the surface through their careers. However both lost their first match on the grass last week in disappointing fashion and Feliciano Lopez and Marin Cilic return to Queens where they have had success in the past.

Marin Cilic won the title here in 2012 and reached the Final in 2013, but he has gone 1-2 in the last couple of visits to this part of West London since then. He has reached the Quarter Final twice in the last three years at Wimbledon too and it is no surprise he is comfortable on grass with a big serve and an underrated returning game.

Last year was a very difficult season for Feliciano Lopez on the grass as he went 3-4 but in 2014 he was a Finalist in Queens and he won the title in Eastbourne in 2013 and 2014. Lopez is very comfortable on the grass and he has a serve-volley game which is tough to play against when you are as effective in that role as the Spaniard is.

Tie-breakers are likely to be critical in this one and their previous meeting on grass did go three sets with very little to separate them. I think there is little to separate them again and I believe Lopez can make use of the limited games he is being given to at least keep this competitive.


Tuesday Tennis Picks can be found in the 'MY PICKS' section.

MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez + 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 1.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Euro 2016 Qualifiers Picks 2015 (June 12-14)

The final senior European football of the season takes place this weekend as another round of Euro 2016 Qualifiers takes place and the tournament of next summer will begin to take place. It is still too early for teams to confirm their places at the European Championship in France, but this could be a pivotal round of games for teams as they look to get themselves into a position to confirm their places in France later in the year.

There are some big nations who are desperate to start to close the gap in their Groups, most notably the Netherlands, while the 'Home Nations' like Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland could go a long way to getting themselves in a position to reach a major international tournament if they can win this weekend.

All three have very difficult games, but all have begun well enough to think they can challenge for top two positions in their Group and, at the very worst, at least a Play Off place.

England are less insecure than those three teams I mentioned and the Republic of Ireland, but they have a chance to all but book their tickets to France if they can win in Slovenia this weekend.

After this round of games, the next thing to look forward to from a personal perspective has to be the June 17th release of the Premier League fixtures for next season.


Wales v Belgium Pick: When you are placed in Pot 4 for the European Championship Qualifiers, the expectation that you will actually qualify for the tournament, even an expanded one, is not very high. But that wasn't the case for Wales who were pleased with their Group and they have had a positive first half of the qualifiers to think they can break their long run of failing to attend a major international tournament.

The win in Israel in the last round of qualifiers has given Wales a great chance to qualify for France 2016 automatically, but there is still work to be done and they can't look too far ahead. They play Belgium this weekend and also still have to face Bosnia and Herzegovina away from home, so Wales are far from guaranteed from booking their hotels for next summer.

Belgium are just behind Wales on goal difference in the Group, but there has to be a lot more confidence in their camp as this is arguably the toughest game they have left to play. The quality in the Belgium team was evident in the manner they beat France away from home in a friendly last week and while the FIFA Ranking of Number 2 looks high, Belgium are a definite threat to win the European Championship.

They have won 6 of their last 7 away qualifiers and while Wales have played well, they did lose 3 of their 5 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers. Marouane Fellaini is missing as is Vincent Kompany, but Belgium are the better team and Eden Hazard certainly finished the season with more confidence than Gareth Bale.

Those two are the difference makers in this match- Bale has picked up his form for Wales compared with performances for Real Madrid, but Belgium seem to have more match winners and can win this game.


Armenia v Portugal Pick: This is far from a straight forward game for Portugal who have been a little vulnerable during recent qualifiers even though they have won 3 straight games in the Group to move to the top of the section. However, they needed a late goal to beat Denmark and needed second half strikes to get past Serbia and Armenia at home in narrow wins.

You also have to respect Armenia for some of their performances in the qualifiers, even if they have not really threatened to actually make a major international tournament. They did lose 4 of 5 at home in the World Cup Qualifiers, but Armenia only lost 1 of 5 in the last Euro Qualifiers and have already held Serbia 1-1 here in this campaign.

Armenia did suffer a thumping home defeat to France in a recent friendly at home though and I do wonder if they have enough in the final third to trouble a Portugal back line that had been playing well before the stunning 0-2 home loss to Cape Verde Islands. Prior to that result, Portugal had conceded only 1 goal in 4 games, including against the likes of Denmark and Argentina, and they are likely to use that as a foundation for success in this latest round of qualifying games.

With Cristiano Ronaldo in the starting line up, Portugal will always expect they will find a way to score a goal or two, but it has been the defensive performances that have sparked their move up the Group standings.

I expect Portugal will have to ride their fortunes at some point in this match, but they should have enough to find a breakthrough and come through with a win thanks to a clean sheet.


Poland v Georgia Pick: After beating Germany 2-0 at home in the early stages of this Qualifying campaign, Poland know that will all be for naught if they don't complete the double over Georgia. They still have tough away games in Germany and Scotland to play and Poland also host the rugged Republic of Ireland team so dropping points against one of the two weakest teams in the section, at home no less, will be a blow to their chances of finishing in the top two positions.

Finishing there means an automatic berth at the next European Championship in France and Poland have already convincingly beaten Georgia away from home in the section as they won 0-4 in Tbilisi in November.

Georgia simply don't travel that well away from home and that was shown in comfortable losses in Belarus, France and Spain during the last World Cup Qualifiers, while Scotland should have won by far more than a 1-0 scoreline suggested in their game earlier in the Group. They have also been beaten comfortably in the Republic of Ireland in a friendly while narrow losses at Kazakhstan and the UAE doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

The home fans might have to be patient because there is little doubt that Georgia will come here with a defensive mentality and hope to frustrate Poland into making mistakes. After all this is a Poland team that won just 2 of 5 home games in the last World Cup Qualifiers, although both of those came against teams of the Georgia level, especially the win over Moldova.

If they don't lose their composure, Poland should find a way to break down Georgia in this one too and I do think they win this one with something to spare. Goal difference could be important in such a tight Group to decide places so Poland should put in a strong effort to win with that something to spare and I will back them to win by at least two goals.


Denmark v Serbia Pick: It is already looking like a big task for Serbia to turn around their form in their European Championship Qualifying Group and a defeat on Saturday will effectively end their hopes of an automatic place in France. The third spot might not be beyond them at that point, but Serbia will be desperate to reverse their 1-3 home loss to Denmark as they travel to Copenhagen.

On the other hand, Denmark will look at their next three games a real chance to confirm their spot in one of the top two places in the Group which will send them to yet another major international tournament. Of course Denmark's most famous international moment came in the European Championships back in 1992 when they were a late entree before going on to win that tournament.

One disappointment for Denmark has been winning just 2 of their last 7 home qualifiers and they were undone by a late Cristiano Ronaldo goal in a home defeat to Portugal earlier in the Group. That poor home form cost them the chance to earn a place at the World Cup last summer, but Denmark can take confidence from Serbia's struggles away from home where they have won 1 of their last 7 qualifiers and been beaten 4 times.

And while Denmark haven't produced the goods in the qualifiers, they have won 6 of their last 8 home games and their 1-3 win in Serbia earlier in the Group will give them the confidence they can earn another vital three points.

The match will likely be a tight one, but Denmark's additional confidence from recent results at home should help them find a way to a narrow win.


Slovenia v England Pick: For all the talk coming out of the England camp about how effective they have been going forward, it was the poor reaction to the goalless draw in the Republic of Ireland that has some of the players fired up. Joe Hart claimed no one 'would say it to (my) face' which seems an incredible reaction to what was universally accepted as a terrible game of football.

People like Hart do make me laugh though- I'm not sure what kind of reaction he was expecting after fans paid out plenty of hard earned cash for a really poor game of football, but the concentration has to move to the Slovenia game as England look for another three points in the Group.

Aside from the Switzerland game, this is clearly the toughest game that England have to negotiate, but they are already in a strong position in the Group and the pressure is not as high as it might have been. England won't want to give up their position in the Group and lose to a potential rival for one of the top two positions, but they have to play better than they did last week.

Slovenia are no pushovers at home with 5 wins in their last 6 Qualifiers in front of their own fans and they did beat Switzerland here to get into the position they are behind England. They also had the lead at Wembley Stadium earlier in the Qualifiers before succumbing to a 3-1 defeat and England at odds on looks very short.

A draw wouldn't be the worst result for England as it would keep them 6 points clear of Slovenia and it has to be remembered England drew 3 of their 5 away World Cup Qualifiers. The win in Switzerland was a strong result, but this game comes at the end of a long season for England and tiredness might be a factor.

The draw wouldn't be an awful result for Slovenia either knowing Switzerland still have to visit England. The home team have won plenty of qualifiers at home in recent years, but I think the draw is a lively player in this one and worth a small interest.


Belarus v Spain Pick: The disaster of the last World Cup campaign had many thinking Spain were perhaps going to have to take a step back in their ability to win the major tournaments as they transitioned to a new set of players to replace a 'Golden Generation' who won the World Cup in 2010 and two European Championships around that victory.

It might be part of the reason that Spain have struggled to find their consistency since returning from Brazil as they have won 5 and lost 4 of 9 games played and struggled to see off Costa Rica in their final friendly ahead of this game. However, Spain have been very strong on their travels in the qualifiers over the last three campaigns and have won 15 of 16 away qualifiers with the sole exception being that surprise defeat in Slovakia.

And for all the talk of inconsistency, it has to be said that Spain have only lost to the highest of quality outside of the defeat to Slovakia as the other three losses have come to France (away), Germany (home) and the Netherlands (away).

Suffice to say that Belarus are not exactly in that level of competition and they have shown they can't really match up to the best teams with comfortable home losses to Ukraine and Slovakia in the Group already. Both Spain and France scored four goals here in the World Cup Qualifiers and both Ukraine and Slovakia won by a two goal margin.

I can't expect Belarus to roll over as both the Ukraine and Slovakia needed to score twice in the last ten minutes to put a positive slant on their scorelines, but Spain are a better team than both. Sometimes Spain can be guilty of overplaying, but they can't afford to drop silly points and I expect the players can have one more big effort before getting a well deserved summer break.


Lithuania v Switzerland Pick: Do you know one team I can't quite get my head around? Switzerland... This is a team that has become a regular nation at major international tournaments, usually qualifying fairly easily, but every time I watch them play I am underwhelmed and unsure as to how they are so successful.

This time around it has been far from a breeze for the Swiss as they are currently 3rd in the Group thanks to their head to head record with Slovenia and 6 points behind England. With a home game against Slovenia to come, Switzerland will be confident they can outpoint them in the remaining five games and that means they have to visit Lithuania and leave with the three points.

They are now unbeaten in 6 games after back to back losses to England and Slovenia to open the Group and Switzerland have won 4 of those games. Switzerland are comfortable away from home as they have won 5 of their last 7 away qualifiers over the last two campaigns and Lithuania have looked overmatched by the top three teams in the Group.

Wins over Estonia and San Marino gave Lithuania false hope that they could potentially compete for a top three spot in the Group, but they have lost to Slovenia, Switzerland and England since then and failed to score in any of those games. Granted they only lost 2 of 5 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers, but Lithuania have already been dismissed by Slovenia in a 0-2 home defeat and it is hard to see Switzerland not being able to match that score having crushed them 4-0 at home.

It will still be a difficult game for Switzerland if they are not focused, but they know they can start getting back into position to qualify for France 2016 without the Play Offs if they win this game and I expect them to do so by a similar margin to Slovenia.


Slovakia v FYR Macedonia Pick: I am sure that both Spain and Ukraine would have been looking at their defeats to Slovakia and wondering whether the latter could maintain their form and take away one of the top two qualifying spots from this Group. Those wins came in September and have sparked Slovakia to win all 5 games played in the Group and all 8 games played since September.

Slovakia have not allowed the wins over Ukraine and Spain get to their heads and they have shown some real determination to win away games at Belarus and Macedonia which were troublesome on paper. Both came comfortably and Slovakia have been very good at home with 6 straight wins here and it would be a real surprise if they don't win this one too.

This is a team that knows they can get through to France 2016 if they can win their remaining home games and even a defeat in Spain in September won't be a hindrance to them. Slovakia might have to be patient against Macedonia who will come here to make life difficult for them, but the latter have not been a good travelling team in qualifiers and it is hard to make a case for them.

One case might be that Macedonia only lost 1-0 in Ukraine and Belgium were only 1-0 winners against them in the World Cup Qualifiers a couple of years ago. That might see them frustrate Slovakia, but the latter have only failed to score less than 2 goals in 2 of their last 6 home games and I think it might be a big ask for Macedonia to stay within the Asian Handicap.

In amongst those tight losses, Macedonia have conceded five in Spain and Serbia and Slovakia should be able to find a win by a couple of goals in this one.

MY PICKS: Belgium @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Portugal Win to Nil @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Poland - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denmark @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Slovenia-England Draw @ 3.60 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Spain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Switzerland - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Slovakia - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2014 (June 14th)

Once in a while, in a long season on the Tour and making picks on a weekly basis, I seem to enter the twilight zone and that is what it has felt like this week ever since Heather Watson blew a big lead in a losing effort on Tuesday. The last three days have been crazy with picks coming so close, but finishing so far from the winner's enclosure, and this is a damage limitation week on what has been a decent season to this point.

With that in mind, both Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer are both still running in their respective tournaments this week as we reach the Semi Finals. Both have tough Semi Finals, but would be considered the favourites to win the title if they can come through these matches, although that is far from straight-forward with Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori standing in the way.

Wawrinka has played very solid tennis all week and Dimitrov has never beaten him, while Nishikori has beaten Federer the last two times they have met.

If, and it is a big if, Dimitrov can come through his Semi Final, the week might not be as tragic as it is looking, but the real way I can turn this around is if both players win the tournaments at Queens and Halle.

Radek Stepanek v Feliciano Lopez: Over the years, Radek Stepanek and Feliciano Lopez have both enjoyed plenty of success on the grass courts, but it is something of a surprise that they have never met on the surface despite that success.

However, it is not the first time that these players will have played one another and Stepanek has dominated the head to head with a 9-2 record, although the last four matches have been split between them. It has been around eighteen months since they last met when Stepanek recorded a surprising straight sets win over Lopez at the Australian Open.

I was critical of Tomas Berdych on Twitter that he wasn't making any adjustments to Lopez' game in the Quarter Final and I think that is where Stepanek will show off his on court clear thinking. The Czech player will slice and dice, while attacking the net to try and keep Lopez off guard, but he has to also hope the Spaniard's serving comes down a level from where it has been the last three days.

Lopez has had some long matches, but any fatigue is cancelled out by Stepanek participating in the Doubles here too and I think it will come to a couple of big points here and there.

On the face of it, Lopez is the right favourite, but I think Stepanek can addle the Spaniard's mind and that will give him a real chance of making the Final here.

Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Shuai Zhang: There are a lot of positives to say about Shuai Zhang off the ground with some of the accuracy and power she displayed in her win over Sloane Stephens in the Quarter Final, but she was also helped considerably by a poor performance from the American.

While Stephens is someone that I won't be backing again any time soon, especially outside of the Slams, Ana Ivanovic is unlikely to check out mentally as quickly as the American did. Ivanovic has been dominant all through the week and that has shown with the comfort she has won her first three matches in Birmingham.

The Serb hits the ball very well and she has generally been improving as she looks to find the form that took her to World Number 1 and the French Open title. Ivanovic can struggle with her serve at times and that may give Zhang an 'in' for the match, but Ivanovic is also likely to offer much more resistance on the serve she sees.

With the aggressive play and power that Ivanovic possesses, I expect her to be too strong for Zhang and come through with a 61, 64 win.

Casey Dellacqua - 3.5 games v Barbora Zahlavova Strycova: I don't think too many people would have had these two players as potential Semi Finalists in Birmingham this week, although both have a decent grass court pedigree to perhaps think it is less of a surprise as initially thought.

Both Casey Dellacqua and Barbora Zahlavova Strycova have performed well this week, but the latter has a lot more tennis in her legs having to go three sets in each of her first three matches before a more straight-forward win on Friday.

Dealing with a lefty serve is always an issue for players, while Dellacqua should also have the edge in terms of power, and the Australian is also having a career year to this point and would dearly love to reach the Final.

She'll have to stay mentally tough against Zahlavova Strycova who can frustrate her opponents with solid and consistent groundstrokes, but I do think Dellacqua will be able to find her way to a 64, 64 win if she can control her nerves.

MY PICKS: Radek Stepanek @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Casey Dellacqua - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-17, - 18.44 Units (50 Units Staked, - 36.88% Yield)

World Cup 2014 Group D Picks (June 14-24)

I'm from England so you can imagine the fascination that has been placed in Group D as not many over here know exactly what to expect from this tournament. A young squad that is vastly changed from the Euro 2012 one will travel to Brazil to take on 2006 World Cup winners Italy, 2010 Semi Finalists and two time former Winner Uruguay and Scotland's nemesis in 1990, Costa Rica.

You can find my outright picks from the tournament here

Group A picks will be made here

Group B picks will be made here

Group C picks will be made here

Group E picks will be made here

Group F picks will be made here

Group G picks will be made here

Group H picks will be made here


Saturday 14th June
Uruguay v Costa Rica Pick: When you take a look at Group D, it is clear that Costa Rica look the team that the other three nations will all be looking at as the weak link. Italy, England and Uruguay are more closely matched than many may initially think and there is every chance that goal difference is going to separate two or even all three of those teams by the time the Group comes to an end.

That puts Uruguay in a strange position really as they will know the first three points from an opening game is a very strong start to the competition, but may also feel they will need to score a few goals to really give themselves an edge over Italy and England and put pressure on both of those teams who will kick off in the next game.

It is where the absence of Luis Suarez would be most costly- the Liverpool striker is likely not to be risked for this game, but Uruguay will hope they can still score a couple of goals and put together a strong win.

I hate disregarding any team that has qualified for the World Cup, but Costa Rica have lost three key players before the tournament began in Bryan Oviedo, Rodney Wallace and Alvaro Saborio and they do look like a team that will struggle to get any points on the board from this Group.

Japan and Chile recorded some thumping wins over Costa Rica in friendly games over the last nine months since the latter qualified for the World Cup and while I don't think Uruguay will reach the four goals that Chile scored, I do think they will win a little easier than the layers are imagining.

The game is being played in the north of the country which could sap some energy, but Uruguay to win by a couple of goals and give themselves a strong platform for the Group is my pick.


England v Italy Pick: As soon as the schedule was released for the World Cup, the fact that England and Italy had been set to meet in the Amazon in Manaus has dominated the headlines, especially in England. The heat and humidity of that area has been a concern from day one and it will be physically and mentally taxing.

There hasn't been much of a mental improvement with rumours of the pitch being in disarray and that the stadium has resorted to spray painting in green to ensure the dry, brown grass is not seen.

Neither team will be looking to make excuses with both having to play on the same surface, but it might affect the game as much as the heat does and I have been set on the draw for some time.

Both Italy and England will know the importance of not losing this first game in the Group with games against Uruguay and Costa Rica to come and it is arguable that both will see the other as the biggest obstacle in the Group. Of course, both managers will certainly be talking up their intentions to go forward and score the goals to win the game, but there is also a real feeling that both will 'settle' for a draw if that is the scoreline with half an hour or twenty minutes to go.

The conditions both with the humidity and the playing surface will make it much harder for the quality attacking football for both to play, although neither defence really strikes me as being impenetrable. However, physically it will be tough at times and I do think the draw is the most likely result, although it will only take one goal to settle this one way or the way in my opinion.

Even with that in mind, I think there is something to be said about playing the 'no goalscorer' option in this game- that would also be a winner if there is only an own goal scored and so makes a little better sense than picking a goalless draw with that in mind.

I'd recommend keeping that pick for a small interest as all it will take is one deflected strike to find its way to the back of the net, but the 0-0 draw certainly makes most appeal if the game ends with the points shared as I am expecting. Both may see that as a positive point, and everything is pointing to a tight game in the Amazon jungle.


Well, well, well, the Costa Rica win over Uruguay in the first round of games in Group D certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons- many expected the 'Group of Death' to see the exit of one of the three teams that currently occupy the top ten in the FIFA World Rankings, but the Costa Rica win puts the potential for two of those teams to pack their bags for home.

The Group was expected to be a fight between Uruguay, England and Italy for the top two spots and a place in the Second Round, but instead we have a 'must win' game for the former two teams in the second set of games.

England were beaten 2-1 by Italy to open their World Cup campaign which essentially means the losing team in the match with Uruguay will virtually be sent home regardless of what happens in the Italy-Costa Rica match which is played the day after.

That should be a very exciting and tense game on Thursday, while the Italians can give themselves a platform for another bid to win the World Cup by beating Costa Rica and putting one foot into the next round as winners of Group D.


Uruguay v England Pick: Prior to the first set of results in Group D, England were the outsider in this game and as big as 2.88 to win the match, but that has all changed after Saturday and they are now a strong favourite to earn the three points that will give them a decent chance of making it to the Second Round.

Both teams are going to be desperate for the win and that is where I think the pace of the England forward line, particularly through Raheem Sterling, Danny Welbeck and Daniel Sturridge are going to have a lot of success. The Uruguay defence is not the best and they don't have a lot of speed back there so counter-attacking them shouldn't be a problem especially if England can get their noses in front.

A similar display to the one against Italy will give England those chances and I also believe Wayne Rooney may have the chance to silence a few of his critics despite his less than stellar displays in World Cup matches to date.

On the other hand, Uruguay will be boosted by the likely return of Luis Suarez, but I can't help feeling the Liverpool man is not going to be at full health- he has only had four more days than the one against Costa Rica and Uruguay would have needed his services for that one but he wasn't fit enough to even come off the bench, so playing from the start seems a big risk.

The service to Suarez and Edinson Cavani can be predictable at times for Uruguay and I have a feeling they know the loss to Costa Rica is likely to be terminal to their chances of qualifying. With that seed of doubt, England can take control of the match and produce a win that would put them in a great position to reach the Second Round which would constitute a mini-success from a tough opening section.

My only disappointment is the poor odds for the England win as they do look short, but I also feel that is the most likely outcome of this match. However, the value may be placed in England to win a high-scoring game which could come about with an early goal, especially as both teams will be desperate for the three points.


Italy v Costa Rica Pick: Costa Rica are the underdog in the Group and will likely approach the game in the same manner as they did in the Uruguay game and will hope to counter attack Italy. A draw wouldn't be the worst result in the world for two teams that have won their first game as they would have control of their own destiny, but I think there is a wider gap between the qualities of the two teams.

Italy can play up and down depending on the opposition and they have to make sure they don't take Costa Rica lightly and end up on the wrong end of a surprise result. The win over Uruguay has given Costa Rica real belief that they can match their best result at the World Cup, but it may also have opened the eyes of Italy and England to what they can do and that makes it more difficult for them in my opinion.

There is an energy in the Costa Rica ranks that will cause problems, but I have a feeling Italy will show the experience and know-how that is so often associated with them and that will lead to a single goal margin of victory for them.


I'd be surprised if I would need more than my pair of hands to count the number of people that expected Costa Rica to have booked their place in the Second Round without the need to play their third game of the Group. On paper, it was Costa Rica that most would have been expecting to be heading home at this juncture, but they have every chance of winning Group D as long as they avoid a heavy defeat against England in a game where both managers will be making changes.

That might be a 'dead rubber' but the game between Italy and Uruguay will be a knockout game between two nations that had big expectations heading into the tournament and will lead to questions for the losing nation.


Costa Rica v England Pick: Both managers are expected to make a number of changes to their first teams for differing reasons- Jorge Luis Pinto is preparing to rest players for the Second Round match they have this weekend, while Roy Hodgson wants to give some of the players that haven't started an opportunity before England head home.

That makes this an unpredictable match, but the fact that neither has anything to lose should bring out the attacking intentions from both teams. However, the changes can also stunt some of the positive play between players that are perhaps not as sharp as those in the first team.

I have to say that Roy Hodgson is being harshly treated by the English media after the two losses the side suffered, especially as he has been let down by some of the defending, particularly in the Uruguay game. Better finishing from Wayne Rooney would have set England up for the win in the second game, while Steven Gerrard has to hold his hands up and take responsibility for the killer goal from Luis Suarez, even if both centre backs also were in poor positions.

This game does give England the opportunity to at least end the tournament with a smile on their face, even if it is only a wry one thinking of what could have been, and the World Cup has produced a host of attacking football. I see no reason why both Costa Rica and England won't want to get forward in this one and goals looks a decent shout in a Group that has produced plenty already to this point.

Picking a winner is more difficult considering the expected changes, but over 2.5 goals looks the call.


Italy v Uruguay Pick: Just take a quick look at the odds and you can see how close these two nations are in terms of what the layers think and I honestly think it is going to be as close as advertised.

As exciting as the World Cup has been, this is the first really 'big' game in terms of what it means to two nations that would have expected to go deep into the tournament. The team moving through will feel they have dodged a bullet and playing with house money the rest of the way, which makes them very dangerous, while the team going home will do so with a lot of questions to be asked about where it went wrong.

Italy and Uruguay have had similar results to this point- both recorded 2-1 wins over England, perhaps a little fortunately, while both were outplayed and deserved to lose their games against Costa Rica.

Luis Suarez definitely gives Uruguay an edge up front, but he is not at 100% full health and I don't think the Italians will defend him as naively as England did in the last game. A lack of pace through the middle of the park may clog up this game, although I haven't been impressed with either defence either.

The tournament has produced so many goals that it is crazy to think about the under 2.5 goals option- some of the defending has made that number look low as attacking play has dominated, but you have to think both teams will be more cautious in this one. An early goal changes the whole outlook of the game, but if this is goalless by the half hour mark, nerves and the importance of not conceding could take over the mentality of both teams.

Whoever does score first is unlikely to really push on for the second and I think the under is the right call, although this World Cup will probably produce a 6-6 thriller.

GROUP D PICKS: Uruguay - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.45 Pinnacle (2 Units) versus Costa Rica
England-Italy No Goalscorer @ 6.50 Coral (1 Unit)
England Win and Over 2.5 Goals Scored @ 3.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Italy to Win by One Goal @ 3.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Costa Rica-England Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Unibet (2 Units)
Italy-Uruguay Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.97 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Group D Update: 1-5, - 6.06 Units (10 Units Staked, - 60.60% Yield)

World Cup 2014 Group C Picks (June 14-24)

On paper, Group C may look like one of the weaker sections at the World Cup, but there could be some surprisingly entertaining matches in the offing as Colombia join Ivory Coast, Japan and Euro 2004 Winners Greece in the same Group.

You can find my outright picks from the tournament here

Group A picks will be made here

Group B picks will be made here

Group D picks will be made here

Group E picks will be made here

Group F picks will be made here

Group G picks will be made here

Group H picks will be made here


Saturday 14th June
Colombia v Greece Pick: You can't begin talking about Colombia at the World Cup without recognising that is going to be twenty years since the tragic murder of Andres Escobar for having the misfortune of scoring an own goal at the tournament held in the United States. That never made sense to me and probably never will...

Any time the World Cup rolls around, you would like to see the best players in action and it is a shame that Radamel Falcao has not made it back to fitness to take his place in the squad for Colombia. I also think that makes the Colombians a little less dangerous without the focal point of the team and the player that could convert any half chances that come their way.

In his absence, Colombia look like a team that is going to play plenty of pretty football but may struggle to really create a lot of chances without the movement of Falcao. In some of their warm up games, Colombia relied on shots from distance and hoping to make something special happen, which could be a problem against a team as defensively sound as Greece.

I do think Greece are going to set up make life difficult for Colombia and they will look to take advantage of any free kicks and corners they get. In a game like this, that might be their best avenue to really hurt a Colombian defence that could be vulnerable to that avenue of attack in this game rather than Greece getting much going on the counter attack.

However, quality should really come through in the first game where Colombia will feel they need to earn the three points with the 'better' two teams left to play in the remaining games. It might take one of the special strikes from one of the top wingers that Colombia will be sending out onto the field to separate the teams, but the likes of James Rodriguez and Juan Cuadrado have that in their locker and I will back Colombia to get off to a positive start.


Ivory Coast v Japan Pick: There is a feeling that the opening games of a World Cup will always be a little more tense and negative as teams don't want to be put behind the black ball with an early loss in the tournament. Playing catch up is a mental burden so that leads to a few more defensive games where one or two magic moments separate the teams.

While I have predicted the first game in Group C to be a tight contest that could need that moment of magic, I am convinced the layers have underestimated the chance for goals between the Ivory Coast and Japan.

Cards on the table- I don't have a lot of faith in the defences of either of these teams, but I have been impressed with what they can create going forward and I can see both teams having opportunities to score goals.

It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if both teams score at least once in the game which is being played in Recife- my concern about the setting was that it can be very rainy there which might have made it difficult to play football, but the forecast calls for light rain during the day which may help as the pitch could be slick and quick.

Zambia showed the Ivory Coast that they can hurt Japan, especially from set pieces, but the Ivory Coast have only only had 1 clean sheet from their last 12 games.

I can't shake the feeling that we will be seeing goals in this second game from Group C and that looks a big price at 2.50 being offered by Coral for at least three to be seen in this match.


The two favourites in Group C both won their opening games and meet each other in the second round of matches- Colombia were comfortable winners on the scoreboard, but the 3-0 scoreline did flatter them a touch as Greece caused some problems.

Ivory Coast had to come from a goal down to beat Japan and that puts the Elephants into a great position to reach the Second Round for the first time in their history. The power displayed by the Ivory Coast would make them a tough out for whoever they are paired with in Group D for that Second Round, although they would be wise to not get too far ahead of themselves with two games left to play in Group C.


Colombia v Ivory Coast Pick: The results of the first couple of games in Group C may play a big part in this third game as both Colombia and Ivory Coast are likely to understand the ramifications of earning at least a point in this game. It is understood that a win would likely put that team into the Second Round, but a draw wouldn't be the worst result, regardless of what happens in the other game, as it would move both teams onto four points with their destiny firmly in their own hands.

Out of the two teams, the Ivory Coast are likely to be more relaxed having beaten Japan who do look the threat to these two teams in the section, but Colombia play with such freedom themselves that this should remain an entertaining game.

However, I have made the point of suggesting the second round of Group games won't be as open as the first set of games simply because teams have more to gain by being a little more conservative and that is why I am leaning towards the draw in this one.

I actually don't think there is a lot between the teams with the Ivory Coast having a more direct threat and Colombia being able to keep the ball for long periods. If the game is tight, I don't think either team will want to risk losing and putting their place in the Second Round in jeopardy and may take the honourable way out of slowing down and settling for what they have.

Both will see that as a success- Ivory Coast would feel they will at least earn a point against the Greeks that would see them through, while Colombia would feel their chances of earning top spot are improved thanks to their strong goal difference. It seems a win-win situation to me and the draw is a mighty big player from this game.


Japan v Greece Pick: It seems the layers were vastly unimpressed by the Greece performance in their 3-0 loss to Colombia, but Japan look very short in the market to win the game considering how poorly they tend to defend.

I do think Greece are capable of causing problems and they are not the side that will look to defend in numbers behind the ball, but they are playing a more progressive brand of football. That could change if they take the lead of course, but Greece will definitely have a chance of winning this game if they take the opportunities that did come their way against Colombia.

This Japanese defence will give them those chances, but I also think Japan have the forward players that can cause plenty of problems for a more progressive side like Greece. There is talent in the final third and Japan have scored plenty of goals in recent matches and even scored four goals in three Group games at the Confederations Cup in Brazil last year.

At a similar price as the Japan win, the over 2.5 goals option looks much more appealing to me- I have said that the second round of games are likely to be tighter with teams having something to lose, but neither of these teams can settle for a draw as that would likely give them too much to do to overturn Colombia and the Ivory Coast.

Greece in particular can't rely on their goal difference and I expect both teams to continue trying to get forward until the very end of the game in trying to win the game. An early goal would be nice to get the ball rolling and really open the spaces in the game, but I think the layers are under-estimating the attacking ability of both teams and seeing at least three goals is my call.


Colombia have all but secured their place at the top of the Group with the win over the Ivory Coast, although it will be interesting to see how much 'desire' they have to avoid a big defeat that could see them avoid one of the big two nations in the Second Round.

Costa Rica are likely to win Group D and that half of the draw to the Final certainly looks the 'weaker' with Spain also exiting the competition and finishing second might actually be a blessing in disguise.

They would need a heavy loss to Japan and hope the Ivory Coast can beat Greece for that to happen, so the chances are that Colombia win the Group, while the Ivory Coast still remain a strong favourite to follow them through to the Second Round for the first time in their history.


Greece v Ivory Coast Pick: There has to be a different mentality for Greece heading into this game, but the pressure will also be on the Ivory Coast if they hear Japan are leading in their game against Colombia. A two goal win for Japan and a draw in this game would allow Japan to sneak into the Second Round, so I will imagine Ivory Coast looking to secure the win that will take them through along with the Colombians.

Greece have to attack- they need to win this game to give themselves any hope of qualifying, but I don't know if they have the players that can push themselves to really get after the Ivory Coast. If they push too far, the likes of Gervinho, Max Gradel, Solomon Kalou and Wilfried Bony have the pace to hurt the Greeks.

The power through the middle of the park provided by Yaya Toure could sap the ageing legs of the Greeks if they are forced to get up and down the pitch and I think the Ivory Coast will have enough to win the game and finish second in the Group.


Japan v Colombia Pick: It is no surprise that the Colombia price is on the drift considering they are expected to make the changes that they are, although you would perhaps think they are still worth backing.

The reason for that is Japan are likely to be pushing men forward in search of goals, but look very suspect at the back and Colombia have the pace to exploit gaps through the match.

However, I think the Colombians have also looked more shaky than the one goal they have conceded to this point may suggest and a new look defence could have a hard time coping with the movement Japan can provide.

It was tough for the Japanese to break down a solid Greece team that had no intention to get forward once they lost a man in the first half to a red card, but they should be afforded more space by a Colombian team that likes to play football too.

That should lead to more decent attacking football from the Japanese and there is every chance this is another Colombia game with at least three goals shared by the teams, but it could make more sense that there are at least four goals scored.

GROUP C PICKS: Colombia @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units) versus Greece
Ivory Coast-Japan Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Coral (2 Units)
Colombia-Ivory Coast Draw @ 3.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Japan-Greece Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Ivory Coast @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units) versus Greece
Japan-Colombia Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Group C Update: 3-3, + 1.84 Units (10 Units Staked, + 18.40% Yield)