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Showing posts with label June 13th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label June 13th. Show all posts

Thursday, 12 June 2025

Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 13th June)

The French Open frustration was largely built on the fact that too many matches had seen players dominate the Break Points, but find a way to miss out on winning those important points.

It felt like something of a hangover from that when the opening Pick of the week struggled to get over the line, despite having the better of the chances.

However, Diana Shnaider was able to rally together in time to produce the win needed and Elena Rybakina was then able to save some late Break Points to earn another winner.

Emma Raducanu rounded out the day, even after blowing a 5-0 lead in the first set, and that has produced a solid opener to the grass court season.

There is still some work to do to secure a positive return for the week, but that start at least puts a solid foundation to build upon.


Madison Keys - 2.5 games v Diana Shnaider: The opening Quarter Final at Queens looks a very good looking match on Friday and both Madison Keys and Diana Shnaider have had solid victories under their belt over the last few days.

Playing on the grass after a long grass court season can be challenging, but having those matches, and wins, to fall back upon should mean Keys and Shnaider are pretty happy with where they are.

Madison Keys was Seeded through to the Second Round and won her match on Wednesday, which means having had a day of rest ahead of the Quarter Final. That should be a help, while the fact that Diana Shnaider was pushed into a third set in her own Second Round win over Katie Boulter could leave the youngster a little vulnerable.

She has won a title on the grass in 2024 and so Diana Shnaider will enter the court with some confidence.

Serving well is going to be the key for the World Number 12 and the first two matches have shown enough from Diana Shnaider to believe she can give Madison Keys something to think about. Playing the Break Points with a bit more confidence will be important and Diana Shnaider has to be careful that she is not offering up too many looks at her second serve.

There is no doubt that Madison Keys is going to be serving well- this is a big part of her tennis and over the years the serve has been a key weapon for Keys on the grass. She has enjoyed some quality runs at Wimbledon and there is a new confidence around Madison Keys since winning the Australian Open earlier this year.

One of the criticisms of the American has been on the return of serve as Madison Keys has struggled with the balance needed to be really effective on this surface.

However, Keys got her eye in during the Second Round win and she did have too much for Diana Shnaider when they met in Miami in March 2024.

The younger player is much improved fifteen months later, but Madison Keys may just have the grass court know-how to get the better of Diana Shnaider again.


Elena Rybakina - 5.5 games v Tatjana Maria: At 37 years old, you can forgive Tatjana Maria if she is considering ending her time on the Tour at the end of the season, especially having lost more matches than she has won over the last twelve months.

Slipping down the World Rankings and having to Qualify for some of the important events on the Tour may not be something that Tatjana Maria is prepared to do, although her run at Queens will certainly help.

Her run is set to take her back inside the top 80 of the World Rankings, but Maria will be thinking about more than that.

It would mean upsetting a former Wimbledon Champion- Elena Rybakina won the title in 2022, but it was also a memorable tournament for Tatjana Maria who reached the Semi Final and was a set away from beating Ons Jabeur. Four wins here in Queens, including two against top 30 Ranked players, will have given Tatjana Maria confidence and her previous grass exploits deserve respect.

At the same time this is another significant test for the underdog, especially if Elena Rybakina has just found her range back on the grass court.

Only late nerves added some drama to the Second Round win over Heather Watson, but Elena Rybakina was very good on the day and she will have gained plenty from having that grass court match. Her game is tailored to be very effective on this surface and the Quarter Final could follow a similar pattern to the Second Round win.

Elena Rybakina will know there are some improvements to be made- she will need to do better on the second serve and the returning numbers can be improved, but the power in her tennis is hard to ignore.

A tough opening set is to be expected, but Elena Rybakina can find a way to move in front and then perhaps power through the second set, much like she did against Heather Watson.

The only previous match between Elena Rybakina and Tatjana Maria ended with the former coming through 7-5, 6-0 on a hard court at the back end of 2023. This one is unlikely to be as wide as that, but Elena Rybakina could still cover the handicap mark that has been set.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 William Hill (1 Unit)
Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 2.65 Units (3 Units Staked, + 88.33% Yield)

Monday, 13 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 13th)

The first grass court tournaments of the 2022 season are in the books, but stronger fields have assembled this week with bigger Ranking points available.

With the uncertainty about the tournament in Queens and whether the Ranking points would be stripped after Wimbledon's decision to ban Russian and Belarusian players, I do think it has suffered in the entry list.

In previous years, Queens has had so many of the top names involved, but the field clearly looks weaker in 2022, although Matteo Berrettini is back as the defending Champion fresh off his success last week in Stuttgart.


After a difficult ending to the clay court season, it was good to get the grass court season off to a winning start with both Picks on Sunday coming back as winners.

It is something to build upon with another busy week to come as four events get underway on Monday.


Cameron Norrie - 1.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: This is the first grass court event being played by both Cameron Norrie and Grigor Dimitrov and they would have likely been hoping for an 'easier' First Round match than the one in front of them.

He may represent Britain, but Cameron Norrie had not really played that well on the grass courts before reaching the Final here at Queens last year. The lefty followed that up by making the Third Round at Wimbledon before losing to Roger Federer in four sets and so there may be more confidence going into the next month than Cameron Norrie has had previously.

I won't ignore the fact that the draws opened up for Cameron Norrie last year with the best win coming in the Semi Final at this event when he beat Denis Shapovalov. However, that is one of just two wins against opponents Ranked inside the top 30 in 2021 and Cameron Norrie will still have something to prove as he begins another run at Queens.

Facing someone like Grigor Dimitrov will give Cameron Norrie plenty to think about with the Bulgarian being comfortable on the grass courts, although recent years have become much tougher for Dimitrov.

Since reaching the Semi Final in Queens and following up with a Fourth Round run at Wimbledon in 2017, Grigor Dimitrov is just 2-5 in grass court matches. Last year he didn't even bother playing any grass court events in the lead into Wimbledon, while Grigor Dimitrov has won a single match in his two previous appearances at this event.

Both players will be confident in their serving numbers on the grass courts, but Cameron Norrie showed something with his returning in 2021. That is more than what we have seen from Grigor Dimitrov, while the higher Ranked player also has the mental edge from the previous two matches between them.

Those two matches may have both been played on the hard courts in 2021, but Cameron Norrie won both and has yet to drop a set to Grigor Dimitrov. There has been a clear edge in favour of Cameron Norrie who has held 85% of his service games played in those two matches compared with Dimitrov's 61% number and I do think the experiences of last year will aid the British player in this one.

In the last three seasons on the grass courts, Grigor Dimitrov has only broken in 16% of return games played and that has put significant pressure on his own serve. I think that could show up in this First Round match and Cameron Norrie should be able to serve well enough to get on top of Grigor Dimitrov and cover this spread in the victory.


Alexander Bublik - 2.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: After Roland Garros came to a conclusion, most players would have been focusing on the grass court season and transitioning onto the surface before Wimbledon begins. For Lorenzo Musetti, it was a time to play a Challenger event on the clay before heading to Stuttgart and it is perhaps no surprise he was beaten in the First Round.

He did win the Challenger in Forli, but it did mean Lorenzo Musetti had little time on the grass before losing in Stuttgart.

Now he has had a few more days to adjust, but you cannot ignore the fact that the young Italian is playing just his third match on the surface and has been well beaten in his first two attempts at grass court tennis. The serve has the potential to be a weapon on grass, especially against a largely limited return player he is facing in the First Round in London, but Lorenzo Musetti has struggled when it comes to the return and I do think that goes against him here.

Alexander Bublik was beaten in the Second Round in Stuttgart, but that does mean he has a win under his belt and he is someone who has shown improvement in his grass court tennis in 2019 and 2021. The loss to Andy Murray would have hurt last week, but Alexander Bublik was guilty of some loose play and could easily have turned the match on its head if serving out the second set.

While not being the best return player, Alexander Bublik did break twice in both matches played last week and ended 2021 with 20% of return games ending with a break on the grass. I do think he will get a few more looks than Lorenzo Musetti in this one with that experience of stringing wins together giving him a mental edge in the match and I do think he can do enough to find the breaks needed to progress with a strong win on the scoreboard behind him.

As long as Alexander Bublik serves well, he should be able to contain the Lorenzo Musetti return and it could lead to frustration and scoreboard pressure wearing on the younger player. We have seen him crack in his only two previous grass court matches on the pro Tour and I can see Alexander Bublik becoming the latest to take advantage.

MY PICKS: Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ilya Ivashka-Jan-Lennard Struff Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Viktorija Gloubic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Saturday, 12 June 2021

French Open Tennis Day 15 Picks 2021- Men's Final (June 13th)

We have a new Women's Grand Slam Champion after Barbora Krejcikova found a way to eventually break down the Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova game after splitting the first two sets.

The second Grand Slam of the season will end and in just over two weeks time the third Slam of the season will begin at Wimbledon, although there is some questions as to how many fans are going to be in attendance.

But before all that, we need to crown a current French Open Men's Champion as one of the Big Three looks to hold off a Next Gen talent searching for a first Slam.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Overcoming the Semi Final hurdle which has thwarted him in his early career is clearly a huge moment for Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he might have one or two regrets that he was pushed as hard as he was on Friday. After moving 2-0 ahead in sets, Stefanos Tsitsipas could not quite finish off Alexander Zverev and was forced to play for over three and a half hours to eventually prevail in a fifth set.

As I have said, it is a huge moment for his career and the feeling is that Stefanos Tsitsipas could open the door for multiple Slam successes the moment he is able to pick up his first one. It is not quite the same level of expectation as it was for Roger Federer almost twenty years ago, but a very strong career could develop for Tsitsipas who is much younger than the Big Three and who looks the stand out player of his generation.

Winning his first Grand Slam title will be a big challenge for Stefanos Tsitsipas as he goes in against the World Number 1 who spent over four hours on the court to beat Rafael Nadal on Friday in the second Semi Final.

Novak Djokovic will have put in a huge amount of effort to get past the dominant player at the French Open and he has become the only player that has beaten Rafael Nadal twice in Paris. Only two men have ever done that before, but it should be pointed out that neither of those (Robin Soderling and Novak Djokovic) went on to win the French Open, but instead they came up short in the Final each time.

I don't think someone who has won 18 Grand Slam titles in his career will be thinking too much about that, but Novak Djokovic might be underlining his status as the best tennis player of all time. His numbers are comparable to Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal across the board, but Novak Djokovic will become the only one of the three who has won multiple titles at each of the Grand Slam tournaments if he is able to secure the title on Sunday.

Emotionally it is a climb down for Novak Djokovic, but I think that is counterbalanced by the amount of emotional investment Stefanos Tsitsipas will have made to reach the Final himself. The World Number 1 has spent considerably more time on the court than Stefanos Tsitsipas at the French Open and was also winning a title in the days before this Grand Slam began so there will be some questions of Novak Djokovic, although I think the match up is one that he won't mind.

The serve has really worked well in the conditions in Paris over the last fortnight and I think that is key for Novak Djokovic if he is going to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas. He lost some of his focus in a five set win over the Greek superstar in the French Open Semi Final last season having won the first two sets easily, before Tsitsipas was able to rally and eventually come up short in the decider.

These two also met in Rome last month and it was another tight win for Novak Djokovic that went the distance, but the improved serve in Paris is going to give the top Seed another advantage. Novak Djokovic will be helped by the fact that Stefanos Tsitsipas has perhaps not been returning as well as he would have liked despite reaching the Final and that may have something to do with the slightly quicker conditions on these clay courts compared to the other tournaments that were played in preparation for this Grand Slam.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has to be concerned if his return game is not at a level he would want and that is because he has to expect to be put under pressure by Novak Djokovic's return. This is arguably the best part of the Djokovic game and he can be considered the best returner of serve that there has ever been.

In their head to heads, Novak Djokovic has broken in 25% of return games played against Stefanos Tsitsipas and the Greek player has only responded in 15% of return games. All three previous clay court matches between these players have been won by Novak Djokovic and in those he has broken the Stefanos Tsitsipas serve in 32% of return games played compared with 18% for the younger player and I do think these numbers will ultimately be something we see on Sunday.

The last two clay court matches have needed all eight sets played before Novak Djokovic has got the better of Stefanos Tsitsipas here at Roland Garros in October 2020 and in Rome in May 2021. However, Novak Djokovic has created an eye-watering 45 break points compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 29 and I do think the World Number 1 is going to be very hard to beat on Sunday with all of his focus going in on winning these Grand Slam titles.

If Novak Djokovic wins on Sunday I really think he is going to have a major shot at winning all four Grand Slams in a single season and at that point it would be almost impossible to suggest there is any other player in history who would surpass him. Even without the calendar Grand Slam, Novak Djokovic can move to within a single Grand Slam of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and I don't think he lets the opportunity slip past him.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is a very good player, but ultimately I think the stronger return game of Novak Djokovic makes the difference between them and he might be able to break down the younger man and pull away for a cover of what looks a big mark on paper.

He would have covered this line in the five set win over Tsitsipas at the French Open last year despite the match going the distance, but this time I expect Novak Djokovic to get the job done in four sets.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

French Open Update: 50-43, + 1.70 Units (186 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

Thursday, 13 June 2019

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 13th)

The weather in London isn't exactly screaming June and summer, but the same can be said around Europe.

Both events in Stuttgart and Hertogenbosch have been affected by the poor conditions around, but at least they managed to keep their events on track for the most part. On Thursday the Cricket World Cup arrives in Nottingham for the latest game in that tournament, but fans won't be too pleased to know that the WTA event and ATP Challenger event being held there has been moved indoors because of all the rain that has been in the area this week.

It looks like more of the same there on Thursday, but my focus is on the matches that are actually going to be played on the grass. I had a mixed Tuesday, but I am disappointed I did not write anything out for Wednesday. Life got in the way a little bit, but that is just the way it goes and there are angles that hit the mark for Thursday to try and get this week moving in a positive direction.


The one issue with grass court events is that we don't get a huge sample of form or how players are going to deal with the surface. There are some players out there on Thursday who might not have had much fun on the grass in their careers so far, but these things can quickly be turned around in the three or four events players take in over the next month.

Small samples mean it is tougher to get a read of how a player can perform on the grass, but we do have enough to make plays on the way through to Wimbledon when more stock can be put into the form displayed in the weeks leading to the third Grand Slam of the season.

It is something to consider and will also make a difference for those matches that are hitting enough marks to mak the selections over the remainder of the month.


Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: A couple of years ago Adrian Mannarino recorded his first win over Fernando Verdasco when these two players met on the grass courts of Antalya. They play in the Second Round in Hertogenbosch on Thursday and this is the first match the Spaniard will be playing on the grass in 2019.

There was a time when Verdasco was actually a pretty happy player on the grass, but the last couple of years have been more of a struggle for him. He has been losing a lot more than he has been winning and Verdasco's numbers have been average to say the least despite what you would consider to be a decent game that should transfer onto the surface.

To be fair to Verdasco, he has maintained decent hold numbers on the grass over the last few years. However the return has not had the same impact and that has left him vulnerable in matches and I think that is especially the case early in this grass season as he gets set to take on a competent player on the surface who already has produced a win to move into the Second Round.

Adrian Mannarino will be glad to be moving from off the clay and onto the grass courts, although there is some pressure on him with plenty of points to defend over the next month. Last year he reached the Final in Antalya and also had a Quarter Final run at Queens and Fourth Round run at Wimbledon so it may be difficult for Mannarino to prevent the slide down the World Rankings his last twelve months perhaps deserved.

His win in the First Round was a good one, but against an opponent who has not played a lot of tennis at this level in the last couple of years through injury. There have been signs that Mannarino is declining as a player and 2018 was a much tougher year on the grass compared with 2017 even though he earned one more win that year.

The Frenchman has a vulnerable serve which is a concern going into this match, but I do think he finds enough returns that can stay low on the grass which can cause problems for his opponent. Adrian Mannarino is confident enough on a grass court to believe he can win this match even though Fernando Verdasco is the more talented player on the court.


Richard Gasquet - 1.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: It is going to take Richard Gasquet a little bit of time to recover to a point where he can play his best tennis on the Tour. A long injury lay off and a return on the clay courts was perhaps far from ideal, but Gasquet is one of the more comfortable grass court players out there.

His win in the First Round in Hertogenbosch looks a solid one even if Gasquet needed three tough sets which could have sapped some energy. He certainly was more convincing than Mikhail Kukushkin, although I do think this is another player who is very happy on the grass and can use a decent serve to set up his entire performance from match to match.

Both players do have solid serves for the surface and they can both return effectively enough which makes this a close match. The lack of matches in the legs in 2019 may affect Richard Gasquet, but his serve has proved to be more potent of the two in their previous matches.

That may be the case and the difference maker when they play each other in this Second Round match. I do think Kukushkin will challenge Gasquet considering his own level on the grass and those lack of matches I have mentioned, but the Frenchman is someone who can produce some of his best tennis on this surface and I expect him to edge this one.

MY PICKS: Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini-Karen Khachanov Over 24.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-6, - 1.34 Units (24 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)

Season 2019: + 75.37 Units (956 Units Staked, + 7.88% Yield)

Thursday, 30 May 2019

NBA Finals Picks 2019 (May 30-June 16)

NBA Finals 2019- Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors (May 30-June 16)
While one of the teams competing in the NBA Finals will come as no surprise, the Toronto Raptors are ready to compete in their first Finals of franchise history.

As the image above may indicate, Kawhi Leonard has been a huge part of the successes that the Raptors have been able to put together in 2019, but this could be a one and done deal for him in Toronto. With impending Free Agency due to begin, Toronto could be losing their star player and it could be argued that only a NBA Finals win could potentially change his mind.

Usually I think Kevin Durant would be the man on the other side of the poster, but his injury leaves him a doubt for the early portion of the NBA Finals. Maybe we will finally see a dominant Finals from Steph Curry in a Finals that is more competitive than some may have indicated.

We are going to be opening up with two games in Canada before shifting to California for two games next week. You have to think Toronto need to make a positive start to the Finals with the two games here coming up and I am also hoping for a much better set of Picks for the NBA Finals than I had for the Conference Finals.


Thursday 30th May
Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors Game 1 Pick: Kawhi Leonard has been huge for the Toronto Raptors in the NBA PlayOffs and has taken over from Kevin Durant as the best performer in the post-season. Much is going to depend on Leonard again as Toronto look for their first NBA Championship in franchise history, but standing in front of them is the defending Champions Golden State Warriors who are going for a three-peat as Champions.

The Warriors closed the door on the Portland Trail Blazers in a sweep during the Western Conference Finals and that means they have had a few more days to rest. It hasn't helped enough to get Kevin Durant back who is now going to have missed six games in a row in the PlayOffs as speculation about his future continues to swirl.

Golden State have won all five games they have played without Durant in the starting line up as Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have gotten hot from the field. The only concern for the Warriors has to be the big holes they have found themselves in during the last three games against Portland Trail Blazers, even though rallying for wins in each of those will give this veteran group of players plenty of confidence.

However starting slowly is not really a plan for the NBA Finals as Golden State will be looking to show the Raptors what they have learned during their four previous years of reaching the Finals. On the other hand only a couple of the Toronto players have had the experience of reaching the NBA Finals, although in Leonard they have someone who stopped the Miami Heat winning a third straight NBA Championship when finishing as Finals MVP as a San Antonio Spurs player.

Leonard looks like he could be feeling much better after being slowed by a leg injury in the Eastern Conference Finals win over the Milwaukee Bucks. His team-mates also stepped up their play to not only become the first team to beat the Bucks three times in a row this season, but they completed a run of four straight wins over the team with the Number 1 record in the NBA.

Toronto also have the knowledge of beating Golden State twice in the regular season and they are a team that will cause some real problems for the Warriors. The big men should have a real edge over the Warriors and Toronto have been shooting the three ball well enough to believe they can counter anything Curry and Klay Thompson can produce after the Splash Brothers hammered the Trail Blazers in the Conference Finals.

The layers are finding it very difficult to split these teams in Game 1 and the potential of a returning DeMarcus Cousins does give the Warriors the chance to offer a different look to the Raptors. Kevin Durant's continued absence is still hurting the Warriors, but they have shown they can perform very well without him and I think this is going to be a game that goes down to the wire with both teams having a chance to win it.

Being able to back Golden State as the underdog is very tempting as I do think they are going to leave Toronto with a split of the first two games, but I am slightly concerned that there could be rustiness from their long lay off. Toronto have also had a few days to digest what they have accomplished so far this season, but they will need to ensure they are continuing to knock down their three pointers to keep ahead of the Warriors and also make sure they are playing the kind of Defense which stifled the Bucks in the Conference Finals.

The poor record in Game 1s held by the Raptors is troublesome when it comes to the spread, but I am going to look for the two Offenses to perhaps need some time to get going in this Series. If the Raptors are going to win they are going to need to be as active Defensively as they have been in the last couple of Series, while Golden State have also showed they can lock down on that side of the court when they need to.

Games between the Raptors and Warriors have leant towards the high total and this one is not a big one if I am being honest. However I am going to be looking for a game in which the teams don't have a perfect rhythm from an Offensive standpoint and I will look for both Defenses to get the better of things in the opener.

The refs can play a huge part in the totals if they get a little whistle happy, but both teams can be very strong Defensively and my first selection in the NBA Finals will be this game failing to reach the total set.


Sunday 2nd June
Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors Game 2 Pick: At the end of the first quarter it looked like the rustiness of the two teams was going to produce a low scoring game as I had predicted in Game 1. However there was some frustration that the teams decided to fall in love with the three ball and also manage to grab a whistle happy crew to see the teams go into overdrive in the middle two quarters either side of half time.

Frustration aside, it was a big game for the Toronto Raptors who held off any rally the Golden State Warriors were able to make and extend their streak to five straight wins in the PlayOffs. Canada is expectant and there is a real belief that the Raptors are ready to bring home the NBA Championship.

But hold your horses.

This is the defending NBA Champions looking for a three-peat and I am expecting a big response from the Golden State Warriors. Kevin Durant continues to sit out, but I know this Warriors team are better than what they showed in Game 1 when Toronto were able to do what they wanted from the field and Pascal Siakam was able to dominate the third quarter.

Some soul searching would have been done the last couple of days but the Warriors won't have been panicking even if they have lost three straight games to Toronto in the 2018/19 season. Adjustments will be made by a team who have been as successful as Golden State have been in the post-season and I do think they can show considerable fight in Game 2.

Before the Series began I felt the Warriors would be returning home with a 1-1 scoreline and Golden State are 11-2 following a straight up loss since the All Star Game. They have also gone 3-1 after a defeat in the PlayOffs and I do think there is going to be a game soon where the Toronto role players are simply not making the shots they have been over the last two weeks.

The Raptors are being favoured again at home, but I like the underdogs to show why they have been the team to beat in the NBA. By the time the Series shifts back to the Oracle Arena we could see Kevin Durant ready to go and I think the Warriors can begin to shift the momentum back towards them with a vital road win in a pivotal Game 2.


Wednesday 5th June
Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors Game 3 Pick: It needed the Toronto Raptors to go cold out of half time to allow the Golden State Warriors to recover and steal Game 2 from the Eastern Conference Champions. Even then it went right down to the wire and the Raptors will be kicking themselves for some of the wide open misses they were guilty of throughout the second half.

Now the NBA Finals shift to the Oracle Arena for two games and the Golden State Warriors are favoured by a much healthier margin than the Toronto Raptors were for either game they hosted. On the face of things you can understand that, but I am finding it much more difficult to be confident in the Warriors when you think of the injuries they are dealing with.

Klay Thompson will suit up by all accounts, but he is not going to be anywhere near 100%, while Kevin Durant remains sidelined. Kevon Looney has been ruled out and is unlikely to return before the end of this season and all in all you have to figure the Raptors are not going to have a better chance to win a road game in this passionate Arena as what they have in Game 3.

They will have to weather a storm at some point and Toronto have not been as good on the road as they have been in front of their own rabid fanbase. Kawhi Leonard is clearly not at 100% himself, but he remains strong enough from the field to keep providing space for the role players and this is really going to come down to which of those players step up the best for either team.

The underdog has now covered in five of the last six games and the Warriors are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven at home. I have no doubt that Toronto have not been as strong on the road as they have at home which is a concern, but I don't expect the Raptors to be as loose with their open shots as they were in Game 2 and that should allow them to keep this competitive and I do think they have every chance to stealing home court back from the Warriors.

We have seen teams rally together when they are facing the kind of adversity that the Warriors are dealing with from an injury front so I would not be surprised if Golden State did find a way to win this. But a blow out of the Raptors would be unexpected and might be the start of a very short Series if that happens with Golden State looking like they could be much healthier by the time Game 4 swings around.


Friday 7th June
Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors Game 4 Pick: There are going to be a lot of questions for Steve Kerr to answer if the Golden State Warriors lose the NBA Finals because of the decisions made for Game 3. Klay Thompson was kept out of Game 3 to avoid aggravating the hamstring injury he picked up in Game 2, but the Golden State Warriors dropped the game and have given back home court.

To be fair to the Toronto Raptors they took the opportunity to win the game with a heavy dose of three pointers and making sure they answered every time the Warriors rallied. Ultimately the Warriors didn't have enough at either end of the court and they are now in a 'desperate' position to win Game 4 and at least head to Toronto avoiding facing an elimination game.

The Raptors have to keep going as they are with the role players stepping up. Barring a terrible third quarter in Game 2, Toronto could have found themselves 3-0 up in the NBA Finals and they are getting plenty out of players other than Kawhi Leonard which is keeping the Warriors off balance.

Thompson's return will give Golden State an Offensive boost to go with Steph Curry, but it is the impact he can have on the Defensive side of the court which may be most important. The hope for the Warriors is that the two days between Game 3 and Game 4 will have really helped get Klay Thompson close to 100% for this one, especially with Kevin Durant seemingly ruled out for another game.

We see the spread at the same mark as it was in Game 3 and that was one that was led by the Raptors from wire to wire. I will make the same point that the Raptors are a little erratic on the road and this time the presence of Klay Thompson will have me going the other way and looking for the Warriors to win and cover.

Other players have to step up, but having Thompson out there does provide another scorer outside of Curry. The pressure is on the Warriors, but they have a lot of experience of being up and down in the NBA Finals and I think that will keep them focused on the task at hand.

Golden State have been a miserable team to back on the spread all season as they tend to be overrated by the layers who know they will be backed. However the Warriors are 8-3 against the spread in their last eleven off a loss and if the Raptors are slightly off with their shooting for any stretch of time like they were in Game 2 then I do think the Warriors can pull away for the win before the Finals shift back to Canada.

It might look a poor pick deep into this game, but I do expect to see a reaction from the Warriors and they can play with the urgency and experience of Champions to edge out the Raptors as they pull away in the fourth quarter.


Monday 10th June
Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors Game 5 Pick: In the last couple of years we have heard the Golden State Warriors being compared to the great Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls team and a number of other teams that have become dynasties in the NBA. Winning a third NBA Championship in a row would have backed up those who put the Golden State Warriors up alongside the very best teams in NBA history, but a 3-2 record in the NBA Finals doesn't look nearly as good.

The Warriors would have won four in a row heading into the 2018/19 season if it wasn't for a collapse against the Cleveland Cavaliers when leading the 2016 NBA Finals 3-1. They became the first NBA team to blow that lead in a best of seven game Finals, but now the Warriors are hoping for some redemption after dropping both games at home in the NBA Finals.

Being 3-1 down and with all the momentum going to the Toronto Raptors looks to be a long path back for Golden State. Injuries have hurt them at the wrong time, but both Kevan Looney and Klay Thompson played on Friday and have had a couple of days to rest and get ready for this one.

The biggest news could be the impending return of Kevin Durant whose stock has risen significantly during the NBA Finals without taking to the court for one game. Durant practiced on Sunday and the feeling is that he will be suited up for Game 5, although how much anyone can impact a game when coming back after almost a month on the sidelines is up in the air.

At the very least Durant will perhaps open things up for the Warriors Offensively having seen the team struggle outside of the Splash Brothers for scoring. Steph Curry and Thompson will need to be efficient from the field and hope someone else can step up for them, especially if Toronto continue to find and knock down the open shots as they have been doing.

Toronto have loved playing at home and I think they are going to be very confident they can close out this Finals even if Durant is available to play. Kawhi Leonard is almost certainly finishing as MVP, but he has been well supported through the likes of Danny Green, Marc Gasol and Fred VanVleet who are playing at a high level Offensively and Defensively.

Since the news of Durant broke the spread is almost dropping to a pick 'em line and my lean is perhaps with the Raptors after winning both games at the Oracle Arena. It is definitely hard to oppose them, but I have to think Golden State bounce back from a sub-par Offensive showing and that could help Game 5 of the NBA Finals surpass the total points line set for the game.

The 'over' has a strong trend when you see the Warriors playing on the road and the two days of rest between games should help them on that side of the court too. Even a rusty Durant will help open things up as the Raptors will have to respect the shooting of the best player in the NBA and that should also help the Warriors in finding some success.

It has also been the play in recent Toronto games and I don't think this team is going to suddenly move off the three point line which has been a key weapon for them in the PlayOffs. Relying on the three ball can be difficult for teams when the rhythm is slightly off, but I think Toronto are in form and they can contribute to what should be a high-scoring Game 5 with so much on the line for both teams and their potential futures.


Thursday 13th June
Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors Game 6 Pick: Where else can you possibly start than with Kevin Durant? It was awful seeing him going down with what was a ruptured Achilles tendon that leaves his availability for the 2019/20 season up in the air.

Seeing one of the best players in the world go down and look like he is going to miss a prime year of his career is hard and I agreed with Jalen Rose and his assessment of things. In fact I had said the same things to friends in the aftermath of Game 5 in that Durant was in a lose-lose situation and he should never have risked his own health for the benefit of those who have wanted to write negative stories about him ever since he signed with the Golden State Warriors.

If he hadn't played we would have heard more reports from sources that Durant is being questioned by team-mates, as we did after Game 4, and if he had scored 50 points and lasted through Game 5 I am sure there would have been articles questioning why he didn't come back sooner.

For the narrative the injury was perhaps the best thing that happened, but you would have to be one cold hearted piece of work to think this is best for Durant. In a year when he was the Number 1 Free Agent heading to the market, this is a tragedy not just for those fanbases who though they could entice Durant to their teams, but for the whole NBA and anyone who enjoys watching the best play the best.

The Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors have no choice but to head to Game 6 and let the Durant issue move to the back of the mind. Golden State barely were able to do that in Game 5 as they won for the second time on the road in the Finals, although it does mean only Game 1 has been won by the hosts.

Now we are back at the Oracle Arena for the last time no matter what happens and the Warriors have to use the emotion of the scenario to help them find a way to force a Game 7. Once again the issue is whether they have enough scoring avenues to overcome the loss of Durant and the slow down in Game 5 suggests it is not going to be easy for them.

There is some pressure on the Raptors too who will feel they have done enough to win the Finals already, yet here they are facing a Game 6 in a hostile environment. Toronto have won twice here already in the Finals and once in the regular season so I do think they are capable of getting things done on Thursday, but the pressure of expectation could be having an impact on them.

Three point shooting is obviously very important for the Warriors, but they have to find a way to make things easier for themselves by attacking the rim too. Getting into the bonus has been something the Raptors have been able to do with consistency success, but the Warriors need to find all avenues of scoring if they are going to force a Game 7 back on the road.

The Raptors have been able to produce some consistency Offensively and they should have their own successes here. There is more depth to their rotation and the Raptors will know how to win here which makes them very dangerous and closing out the Series and the Finals would not be a huge surprise.

I don't think the Warriors will go away quietly even being short-handed and I am still a little irritated Game 5 ended up with an 'under' considering where the game was at half time. It is a concern that the home team don't have enough to break down the Raptors in this one, but I am going to make the same play and look for the teams to actually foul down the stretch to give themselves a chance to help climb over the total points line set.

MY PICKS: 30/05 Toronto Raptors-Golden State Warriors Under 214 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
02/06 Golden State Warriors @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)
05/06 Toronto Raptors + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
07/06 Golden State Warriors - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
10/06 Toronto Raptors-Golden State Warriors Over 214 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
13/06 Golden State Warriors-Toronto Raptors Over 211.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)

NBA Finals: 2-3, - 0.89 Units (5 Units Staked, - 17.80% Yield)

Conference Finals: 4-6, - 2.36 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Second Round: 12-11, - 0.04 Units (23 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
First Round: 23-17, + 4.02 (40 Units Staked, + 10.05% Yield)

Tuesday, 12 June 2018

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 13th)

I was out on Monday which meant I was unable to do the research I would have liked for the Tennis matches that were scheduled to be played on Tuesday and so there were no Picks yesterday.

That is not the case on Wednesday as I look to build on what was a very good Monday for the Tennis Picks which went 5-2.

With the World Cup kicking off in Russia on Thursday, I have automated my Outright Picks from that tournament to come out tomorrow and will then have the thread for the first round of Group games ready to go on Thursday with Picks added through the tournament.

At the same time I will continue to put the Tennis Picks together whenever I find matches that fit into my requirements and those will come throughout the grass court season in the build to Wimbledon.

Like Monday I will have the analysis of the men's matches I am picking from Hertogenbosch and Stuttgart and add the women's selections in the 'MY PICKS' part of the thread.


Yuichi Sugita v Marius Copil: Both men have got their grass court seasons off to strong starts with good looking wins on Monday and the layers are setting the line for this one as a pick 'em.

I can understand why Yuichi Sugita is the narrow favourite to win this match and I like the price enough to back him after doing the same in the First Round. I said at the time I leaned towards Marius Copil beating Aljaz Bedene, but I wasn't completely convinced by the relatively poor return numbers on the grass courts which were still on show in the win the big server had.

You can get carried away with how big Copil serves which should make him very tough to break down on the grass courts, but Sugita's returning is the key to this match. He has shown he can put opponents under pressure on the grass and actually beat Copil relatively comfortably on the surface last year in Surbiton.

The Sugita serve is also an underrated shot on the grass and I think he will be able to exploit the limited return game that Copil has. It should mean Sugita is going to get the better of the rallies once we get past the first couple of shots on the Copil serve and I think that does give him the edge in this Second Round match.

Scoreboard pressure could be the best way for Copil to find a way to beat Sugita but I would imagine it is the latter who has the majority of the break point chances in this match. I also think Sugita is the more effective overall player on the grass courts and he can do enough to beat Copil and move onto another Quarter Final on this surface.


Gilles Muller - 1.5 games v Matthew Ebden: The move off the clay courts and back onto the grass should be good for Gilles Muller, although the left hander could be overrated after an especially strong 2017 on the surface. Prior to that his numbers had not been as impressive, but the big serve will always make Muller dangerous.

Last year it was the returning numbers that really jumped off the page and helped Muller with a strong run at Wimbledon that saw him beat Rafael Nadal.

It was a special season for Muller on that front and I am not convinced he will replicate those on the grass courts in 2018. However the serve should remain a big weapon for him and it can be one that can put pressure on opponents to make sure they are holding onto their own serve.

Matthew Ebden will have to face that in the Second Round in Hertogenbosch, but his confidence could not be in a better place having reached the Semi Final in Surbiton last week. He played a lot of tennis and putting the wins together would have raised the belief going into a match of this magnitude for him.

The Australian had some decent numbers on the grass courts in 2017, but he was operating at a lower level than the one he is facing on Wednesday. Ebden doesn't have the best returning numbers which makes this a very tough match up for him and I do think it will be the scoreboard pressure which sees Muller get in front in this one with one break likely enough to see him through a set.

Muller's serve is also likely to be a difference maker in any tie-breaker situation which comes into the match and I like the big serving left hander to win this match and cover the number.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: This is a very interesting grass court match, but I do think the improving youngster is perhaps a little underrated even as a convincing favourite in this match.

Daniil Medvedev didn't have a good clay court campaign, but he is much more at home on the grass courts and I expect some solid wins for him in the weeks head. He was a very good winner in the First Round when dismissing Yuki Bhambri in straight sets and getting his feet back on the grass should give him the edge over veteran Fernando Verdasco.

For the Spaniard it is a first match back on the grass courts and he has performed admirably on the surface over the years. However there has been a clear decline in the numbers over the last few years and I think that will be give Medvedev the edge in this Second Round match.

While the Verdasco serving numbers are still relatively strong, his hold percentage on the grass has dropped from 86% to 82% over the last four years to 2017 and that slippage can be very detrimental to a player whose return game has not been too hot on this surface. There was a relatively successful 17% break percentage in 2016, but the other three seasons where the serve has slipped has seen Verdasco breaking in less than 14% of games.

He may have a little more of a chance breaking the Medvedev serve, which is still developing into the kind of weapon he would like, but it is the return game from the Russian which really stands out. He has broken at 28% in 2016 and 30% in 2017 which is a very strong showing on the grass courts and Medvedev broke the Bhambri serve four times in the First Round.

Medvedev should have the edge on the returning side of the game and I think he can win this one and cover the handicap.


Maximilian Marterer - 3.5 games v Viktor Galovic: You have to be careful not to be backing Maximilian Marterer at a time when he could be potentially overrated after a strong showing at the French Open. The memorable third set performance against Rafael Nadal in the Fourth Round will have given Marterer some real confidence, but this is a new surface and a new tournament for the youngster searching for some consistency.

I do think he can get the better of Lucky Loser Viktor Galovic who is playing his third grass court match in his career. He didn't play badly in Qualifying which suggests this is going to be far from an easy match for Marterer, but I do think Galovic could have his problems against the lefty too.

Marterer had some decent performances on the grass twelve months ago and a strong serve can give him the chance to go on the attack on the return of serve. His opponent allowed Denis Kudla to create 19 break point opportunities in the final Qualifying Round here in Stuttgart and Golovic is likely to be put under some pressure from Marterer who had a decent 20% break percentage on the grass in 2017.

That was from a relatively small sample but Marterer will have the crowd support behind him which can see him come through this match.

He is also 3-0 against Golovic in previous matches including at the US Open Qualifiers last August and I think he can improve that record with a win on Wednesday.


Benoit Paire v Taylor Fritz: This is a virtual pick 'em in the First Round in Stuttgart but I am going to give the edge to the Frenchman to reverse his loss to Taylor Fritz from the Indian Wells Masters in 2017.

One concern is that this is the first match on the grass for Benoit Paire in 2018 compared with Taylor Fritz who won three matches in Surbiton last week as he came through the Qualifiers there. The American has a strong serve which has to be respected, but Fritz has yet to get to grips with the returning aspect on the grass courts and that could be an issue in this match against Paire.

It is Paire who has the stronger returning numbers on the grass courts, but he hadn't had a lot of success on the surface prior to 2017. Last season was a different story though as Paire produced a combined 107% hold/break percentage on the grass and he should have the edge over Fritz.

Fritz is now just 7-11 on the grass courts in his young career and I like Paire even if he can be a tough player to trust on any given day to perform at his best.

In this one Paire should be good enough to at least create the majority of the break point opportunities and I like him to win this match at a tournament where he reached the Semi Final last year.


Mischa Zverev + 4.5 games v Roger Federer: He's back.

Roger Federer skipped the clay court season to make sure he is at peak fitness for the Wimbledon and US Open tournaments where the Swiss superstar believes he can win and add to his tally of Grand Slam titles. There are a huge number of points for Federer to defend in the coming weeks, but he looks the favourite for another title at Wimbledon next month.

However it can't be ignored that Federer made a slow start to the grass court season in 2017 when he was beaten in the Second Round in Stuttgart which was his first match on the surface.

I don't think that happens here against Mischa Zverev, but the German is very effective on the grass courts with a strong serve and the ability to put balls away at the net. Not many would have forgotten the double bagel Federer handed out against Zverev in Halle a few years ago, but last year they played each other twice on the grass courts and both were very competitive matches.

If Federer is needing a little time to find his best form after the long lay off from the courts then someone like Zverev can make it very tough for him. The lack of rhythm you get against a player who will serve-volley can be difficult for a player with little court time to get very comfortable and Federer could be pushed here.

Ultimately I think Zverev's return game won't be good enough to earn the win, but he can give Federer something to think about. It should be a fun match for the fans to watch and I will back the veteran to serve well enough to get within the number in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Yuichi Sugita @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Maximilian Marterer - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Benoit Paire @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Irina Falconi + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-2, + 5.66 Units (14 Units Staked, + 40.43% Yield)

Monday, 12 June 2017

Tennis Picks 2017 (June 13th)

Both the ATP and WTA Tour have moved onto the grass court tournaments as preparation for Wimbledon begins in Hertogenbosch, Nottingham and Stuttgart this week.

Next week the bigger events take place with a couple of ATP 500 events and the important WTA tournament in Birmingham which is when the really big names are all taking part to get themselves ready for the third Grand Slam of the season.


It was a mixed start to the week for the tennis picks with the two women's matches both landing the wrong way, but the two men's matches at least preventing it being a really poor day. There are plenty of matches scheduled for Tuesday as the events this week really get going, but finding the right angles is the key with the move from the clay onto the grass courts a difficult transition for players.


Andrey Kuznetsov - 1.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: One of the big criticisms you can have of both of these players in their careers is that they can be guilty of playing some really sloppy tennis to go with the big hitting that can impress. The reason I am backing Andrey Kuznetsov to get the better of Jerzy Janowicz is the latter is still on his way back from a long term injury and the former is someone who is more than capable on the grass courts.

It feels like Janowicz is being priced up as the player who once reached the Wimbledon Semi Final, although that was a stunning run at the Slam rather than the culmination of a strong set of results on the grass. His game is well suited to the surface which isn't a surprise considering the size of the serve, but Janowicz is just as capable of throwing a stinker of a service game with double faults and poor shot selections likely to hold him back.

The Janowicz return game is still a considerable weakness in his game and he may have some troubles dealing with Kuznetsov's serve as long as the Russian is producing something like his best tennis. My concern in backing Kuznetsov is that this is a player who can go on a long run of making unforced errors as his aggressive style means he has a very small margin of error off the ground.

Kuznetsov and Janowicz will both make their mistakes in this one and I wouldn't be surprised if we need to go into a third set to determine a winner. However I do like the current form of Kuznetsov compared to Janowicz who is trying to rediscover his form on the Tour and the fact the former has produced some decent tennis on the grass courts in his career.

After a battle, Kuznetsov can work his way to a 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 win.


Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: There have been considerable signs that Gilles Simon has slipped from the level he once had and he looks to be a declining force on the Tour. His opponent in this one is another veteran of the Tour but Feliciano Lopez is still playing at a slightly higher level than the player on the other side of the net.

You would also think the grass courts would favour Lopez more than Simon even if the Spaniard has underachieved on this surface over the last couple of years. Early losses makes this a tougher match to get a read on, but Lopez has matched up well against Simon in his career too which should give him an extra edge.

There have been some solid performances from Simon on the grass which should mean he is given some respect, but I think he will be put under pressure from Lopez. The serve is followed by decent volleying and I am not sure Simon's defensive moment is as good as it once was, while the Simon serve is much more attackable.

I will be looking for Lopez to produce a solid serving day to keep the pressure on Simon and force him to try and pass at the net. Added to that will be a solid slice that Lopez can use to extract some mistakes from Simon off the low ball and also as a way to get to the net and keep the Frenchman trying to pass for much of the match.

That pressure should be enough to help Lopez come through with a 7-6, 6-4 win and move into the Second Round here in Stuttgart.


Jeremy Chardy v Florian Mayer: It looks like Florian Mayer will come in as a slight favourite to win this match, but I think the underdog Jeremy Chardy may surprise him. Mayer is considerably higher in the World Rankings, but he has some significant points to defend in the next two weeks which may put some pressure on the veteran German who has been having a tough season.

That is not to say that Chardy has had a really strong season, but he has been putting up more wins than Mayer in recent weeks. The move to the grass courts should help Mayer as he has shown strong form on the surface in the past, but I think he is perhaps overrated by the Quarter Final run here and winning the title in Halle last year.

Chardy is comfortable on the grass himself having reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon previously, but he didn't have a great 2016 on this surface. There was some misfortune attached to at least one of the losses he had last year and I like the fact that Chardy should have the edge when it comes to the serve in this one.

That can be very important on the grass courts, while Chardy might have the superior forehand in this one too. Serving well and being able to follow with that shot should give Chardy a chance of earning the upset against Mayer who will be using more variation than the Frenchman. However I think Mayer will be put under pressure from Chardy's power and it is the latter who may come out with a narrow win.

He has never lost to Mayer before which may help mentally at key times in this one, especially if it is a tight match as I am expecting. Chardy can make that count with the win as his return game does enough damage to beat Mayer and move into the Second Round.


Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 games v Jordan Thompson: After a run to the Final of the Challenger event in Surbiton last week, you can understand why Jordan Thompson is only a narrow underdog to Adrian Mannarino in this First Round match in Hertogenbosch. Having the grass under his feet compared with the Frenchman who is playing his first competitive match on the surface could be important for Thompson.

On the other hand, I think that run might also have seen Thompson become a little overrated for this match against a lefty who has produced some solid runs on the grass throughout his career. Mannarino has also won his first match on the grass in each of the last five seasons and he would have covered this number each time.

The serve is not overpowering, but Mannarino can make it awkward coming out of the left-handed stance. That should put some pressure on Thompson, while Mannarino has an underrated return game which is also going to cause some problems for the Australian.

Thompson will be able to rattle through some service games, but I think there will be times when Mannarino really turns the screw against him and I am giving him the overall edge in this match. I would be looking for Mannarino to perhaps ride out some early issues as he gets more comfortable on the grass courts and that can then see him take control of the match.

He may even drop the first set, but I will look for Mannarino to come through with a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.


Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 games v Carina Witthoeft: There are elements of Carina Witthoeft's game that I do like and I think it should be one that transfers onto the grass courts effectively enough. This does look like being a career year for Witthoeft on the main Tour, but she has yet to really put together a strong set of results on the grass.

I do think Witthoeft will cause some problems for Coco Vandeweghe, especially when the first serve is landing. However Vandeweghe has had a lot of success on the grass courts over the last few seasons and it isn't just the big serve that has set that up.

The American has actually returned pretty effectively and perhaps that is something that will surprise some people. Vandeweghe's heavy groundstrokes find huge penetration on the grass courts and getting the first strike is very effective on this surface compared with even the hard courts and that has seen Vandeweghe dismiss some challengers very easily.

Vandeweghe has played well in Hertogenbosch where she is the defending Champion and she would have covered this number in 12 of her 19 wins on the grass over the last couple of years. In that time she is 10-1 covering this number when favoured by less than 1.40 and that is an impressive run from a player who is not as known for her return as she is the heavy serve and big forehand.

I will look for Vandeweghe to have a little bit too much for Witthoeft on both serve and return and see that lead to a 6-3, 6-4 win for the American defending Champion.

MY PICKS: Andrey Kuznetsov - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Betway (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy @ 2.20 Betway (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Betway (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)