Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 14th June)

I guess I should have been wary of Friday the 13th with both selections falling down the wayside, but the Semi Final Round has been reached at the four big tournaments being played and that offers an opportunity to bounce back.

Elena Rybakina never really got close to covering, but Madison Keys had her chances and was effectively punished for a slow start, even if she couldn't care less having found a way to bounce back and progress past Diana Shnaider.

These early grass court matches could be invaluable for those players who are competing before Wimbledon and all that are still involved this week will be looking to secure a title and important World Ranking points to take forward.

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 1.5 games v Elise Mertens: Two of the top three Seeds have worked their way through to the Hertogenbosch Semi Final and the winner of this match is going to be a favourite to win the title on Sunday.

You can't argue with the form that Elise Mertens has put together in her three wins in the tournament with a bagel handed out in each of the three matches played. The World Number 25 has yet to drop a set and Mertens has to be really happy with the quality of serving she has produced in the tournament.

It was not the most productive of clay court seasons for the Belgian, but she is a comfortable grass court performer.

Winning matches will always give a player confidence and winning in the manner that Elise Mertens has been doing in Hertogenbosch can only add to that belief. However, it should be noted that all of the players she has faced in the tournament have been Ranked between 76 and 85 and so facing the Number 2 Seed is going to be a significant increase in level of opponent.

It also becomes a much tougher test for Elise Mertens when noting how well Ekaterina Alexandrova has been able to play on the grass in recent years.

An illness forced her to miss Wimbledon in 2024, but the World Number 15 reached the Fourth Round in SW19 in 2023 and she is set for another strong run.

Ekaterina Alexandrova has been given more of a test to reach the Hertogenbosch Semi Final, but she will have benefited from that and has a win over a player Ranked inside the top 40. The second serve needs to be given a bit more protection if Alexandrova is going to win the title here, but she will be confident when facing an opponent she has gotten the better of more often than not in previous matches.

The higher Ranked player has won three of the four previous matches against Elise Mertens, although they are meeting on grass for the first time.

Those wins can still play an important mental role and Ekaterina Alexandrova has really enjoyed playing at this tournament, which will also help. She won back to back titles here in Hertogenbosch in 2022 and 2023 before losing in the Semi Final last year and Ekaterina Alexandrova can get the better of Elise Mertens and move through to the Final with a solid win behind her.

Elena Gabriela Ruse - 1.5 games v Elisabetta Cocciaretto: The higher Ranked player coming into this Semi Final is Elena Gabriela Ruse, but she was forced to win a couple of Qualifying matches to take her place in the main draw.

In some situations that may not feel ideal, but Elena Gabriela Ruse has used the momentum to shine through to the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch having won all of her matches in straight sets.

It should be noted that the World Number 80 has not really faced a deep competition to reach this Round, although the win over Bianca Andreescu in the Quarter Final deserves respect. The latter is returning from another injury layoff though and Elena Gabriela Ruse has won matches perhaps as she should do considering the Ranking of the opponents.

She is facing another player Ranked outside the top 100 in this Semi Final, but Elisabetta Cocciaretto has won a couple of matches against players Ranked higher than herself to take her own place in the final four.

Like her opponent, there has not been a deep appreciation of the grass as far as Elisabetta Cocciaretto is concerned, but she will have gained confidence from the level she has been producing here this week.

Both have served well, which has to happen on this surface, but it is Elena Gabriela Ruse who has been offering up a bit more on the return.

In a close match, that could be key and Ruse has shown a bit more on the grass in the last couple of years, and she could keep the momentum going in what has been a really strong week.

MY PICKS: Ekaterina Alexandrova - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)

Elena Gabriela Ruse - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-2, + 0.65 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 12th)

A solid return on Saturday has given me a chance to end the first grass court tournaments with a winning record, but there are four Finals to get through before these events can be placed in the books.

Much bigger events are coming up next week with the tournaments in London, Halle, Berlin and Birmingham offering up big Ranking points and deeper fields than we have seen this week. It is also the week when the majority of the top names will play their last events before Wimbledon begins later this month.

Matteo Berrettini v Andy Murray: If you were solely concentrating on the names in the draw, seeing Andy Murray and Matteo Berrettini in the Final of this grass court tournament in Stuttgart would be no surprise.

However, there are circumstances around both players that has perhaps led to this being a surprising Final.

Matteo Berrettini missed the entirety of the clay court season and there may have been some match rustiness to shake off when playing here in Stuttgart. He did reach the Final of Wimbledon after winning the big title in Queens last year, but even then you may have felt that the Italian would need a little bit of time to round back into the kind of form that has seen him become one of the top names on the Tour.

On the other side, Andy Murray chose to miss much of the clay court season in order to prepare for Wimbledon and he is very comfortable on the grass courts. He was a beaten Semi Finalist in a Challenger event in Surbiton last week and we have yet to see Murray really put the wins together as he has in Stuttgart, but he has upset a couple of opponents on his way to this Final.

It will give Andy Murray confidence and the serve has been improved since his wobble in the win over Alexander Bublik and it is so important for Murray to try and pick up cheaper points. He is facing someone who has not always been the most effective return player, but Matteo Berrettini has the kind of serve that can see him roll through service games and build scoreboard pressure to break down an opponent.

We all know how good a return player Andy Murray can be and his numbers have been stronger than Matteo Berrettini's this week, although he did only win 24% of return points against Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Italian is a stronger server than Tsitsipas and he will feel he can put Andy Murray under more pressure and make enough returns on the second serve to win this match.

Last year Matteo Berrettini crushed Andy Murray at Queen's Club in London on this surface, and it was a day in which the former returned very well to back up his big serve.

This should be a close and competitive Final, but I have to give a very slight edge to Matteo Berrettini who looks very happy on the surface and he can win a match that could go the distance before both players head to London.

MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 19-15, + 3.62 Units (68 Units Staked, + 5.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 11th)

A late retirement in the final match in Stuttgart put a dampener on the day for the Tennis Picks and it would have helped considering the results that had come in.

The Andy Murray win over Stefanos Tsitsipas was impressive in that tournament and he sets up a big Semi Final against Nick Kyrgios, while the grass court season feels firmly underway as we are days away from the really big events starting before Wimbledon gets going.

We are down to the business end of the events in Hertogenbosch, Nottingham and Stuttgart before that and I am looking for a strong close to the tournaments that have been played this week.

Oscar Otte-Matteo Berrettini over 23.5 games: The first Semi Final in Stuttgart looks like it could be a serve-dominated outing and I am a little surprised that the layers are offering a total games line at the number they have.

My feeling was the line would be at least a game higher than where it stands right now and I would not have been massively surprised if it was set two games higher, but I think these two have the serving capability of covering this line even if one of the two were to win this match in straight sets.

Oscar Otte didn't have to pick up his racquet in the Quarter Final when given a walkover by Benjamin Bonzi, while Matteo Berrettini needed three sets for a second match in a row as he got the better of his compatriot Lorenzo Sonego. It does mean the top Seed here has spent more time of the court than Oscar Otte even though both have played two matches in the draw, but you can understand why Matteo Berrettini has been set as the favourite having played so well on the grass courts in 2021 and also looking like a much more effective return player in the two matches played in Stuttgart.

While the numbers don't bounce off the page, Matteo Berrettini did create at least six break points in both wins this week and he has broken serve at least twice. He has done that despite winning 33% of return points played, but shows a player who has been able to focus on the games he has needed to in order to make the break.

It is far more impressive than Oscar Otte's return numbers having broken in 4% of return games played compared with Berrettini's 18% mark, while the home hope has only won 24% of points against the serve.

The pressure will be on Oscar Otte to make sure he serves well and he has won 77% of his service points played in his two wins this week, while has only been broken once. That serve can be highly effective when Otte gets into a roll and I think he can force at least one tie-breaker which can only a long way to clearing this total.

Matteo Berrettini is still finding his way after a long absence from the Tour and has won 68% of service points played which has led to 92% of service games being held. The Italian has to feel he can contain Oscar Otte and have a go on the return games, but it feels like a match that will be dominated by two big servers and it may lead to a long match in terms of games rather than time spent on the court.

In their two previous matches, Matteo Berrettini has found a way to get into the Oscar Otte service games, but both of those were in Grand Slam tournaments and he still needed four sets to get past this opponent on both occasions. He has had a significant edge on the serve over this opponent in the head to head so I do favour Berrettini to come through, but it may be after two close sets are concluded.

Tim Van Rijthoven-Felix Auger-Aliassime over 22.5 games: Having a career best World Ranking of Number 175 would be pretty successful in most fields, but in tennis it means a player has not really been able to push on in their career as they would have liked.

At 25 years old, Tim Van Rijthoven may have felt his career was stagnating, but he did reach that career high World Ranking a couple of months ago.

And this week he is having the very best time in a home ATP event that will provide him with the Ranking points to push his personal Ranking up to Number 153 having reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch. He has been serving lights out on the grass courts and I do think it is a part of his game that will give him a chance to push Felix Auger-Aliassime on this surface.

The Canadian is having another solid week on the Tour and I think reaching the ATP Finals in Turin has to be a real aim for Felix Auger-Aliassime who is finding more consistency in his level in each week. His serve has been a big weapon for him in his two wins in this tournament, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has struggled for an effective return and that is where Tim Van Rijthoven should have a chance of being competitive.

His own return has not been the most effective, but Tim Van Rijthoven has to be confident with the kind of serves has has been delivering.

It certainly suggests the two players can roll through service games and combine to cover this total games line, which is another that could have been set at least one game higher than where the line is.

Tie-breakers could be needed to separate the two players with both winning 74% of service points played this week which has led to 95% of service games behind held. Neither of these players have been in great form on the return, and Tim Van Rijthoven and Felix Auger-Aliassime have only given up thirteen break points combined.

Of course it will depend on how well they can deal with those pressurised moments and it can see the match quickly running away from one of these players. However, the two have combined for just thirteen break points so far this week with their largely limited return performances and I will look for this Semi Final in Hertogenbosch to have enough games to cover this total set.

MY PICKS: Oscar Otte-Matteo Berrettini Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tim Van Rijthoven-Felix Auger-Aliassime Over 22.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tereza Martincova @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alison Riske - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-15, - 2.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 3.52% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 10th)

We should be able to complete the tournaments in the manner we would want this week with better weather expected this weekend.

Shuai Zhang v Tereza Martincova: The rain in all of the events being played this week means the line up for the Quarter Finals are still taking shape.

All of the events are hoping to be back on schedule by Friday, but it is not certain that will be the case and this Quarter Final in Nottingham may be on late in the afternoon. At least both Shuai Zhang and Tereza Martincova can prepare for this match knowing who they will be facing and both players are enjoying their return to Nottingham.

Both played here in 2021 and Shuai Zhang ended up as the Runner Up, while Tereza Martincova was beaten in the Quarter Final. After disappointing showings on the clay courts, both will also have welcomed the move into the grass court season after strong displays last season and neither player has dropped a set on their way to the Quarter Final.

It should be noted that Shuai Zhang has benefited from the draw a little more than Tereza Martincova.

While the Runner Up from last season has beaten two players that are Ranked 128 in the World Rankings or lower, Tereza Martincova has two top 85 wins. Her performances have been more impressive of the two as well with the Czech player only facing two break points in her two matches combined and that has helped Martincova build scoreboard pressure on her opponents.

The returning in the first match against Oceane Dodin wasn't very impressive, but Tereza Martincova was much better in her win over Magda Linette and it feels she could be the more battle-hardened for this Quarter Final.

Take nothing away from Shuai Zhang who has long been comfortable on the grass courts, but she did not back up her run in Nottingham in 2021 in the manner she would have wanted. She has looked very solid in Nottingham this year too and clearly enjoys playing this tournament, but Shuai Zhang has not been as convincing in her wins and I do think her second serve could be vulnerable to Tereza Martincova.

Shuai Zhang has been returning very well though and that has to be encouraging for her, while I think she can step up her performance against a better player. Her wins have been solid enough this week, and the returning aspect of her tennis makes her dangerous for Tereza Martincova who has won 37% of return points in her two matches compared with Shaui Zhang's 45% mark.

It will be a close and competitive Quarter Final and I would not be surprised if we need a decider to determine the winner, but I do think the underdog's returning ability can see her edge to the win.

MY PICKS: Shuai Zhang @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia + 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alison Van Uytvanck + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Caty McNally + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Nick Kyrgios - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Gams @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-11, + 2.90 Units (50 Units Staked, + 5.80% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 9th)

Wet weather has forced a number of matches to be postponed until Thursday and it is vital for all of the tournaments being played that they get back on track.

Some of those events are starting earlier than usual in a bid to avoid having players forced to play twice in the same day to ensure we have a Sunday finish. The weather looks very good at all of the events going into the weekend, but Thursday could be another challenging day for players who have to wait around and hope there are enough windows of play to get their matches completed.

Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Alexander Bublik: After deciding to skip the majority of the clay court season, Andy Murray is back on the grass courts where he was once as good as anybody on the Tour. At this stage of his career, Andy Murray is no longer one of the favourites to win Wimbledon, but he does feel he can still have a big impact on a surface that is largely unfamiliar to many on the Tour.

With that in mind, Andy Murray has chosen to play as many tournaments as he can on the grass and that included taking part in a Challenger event in Surbiton last week. He reached the Semi Final there before a close defeat to Denis Kudla, but it also served as a reminder that Murray is not the force he once was on the Tour in general.

Needing as much court time as he can find, Andy Murray has decided to head out of Britain for a grass court appearance and reached the Second Round in Stuttgart behind a strong win. He will be the first to admit that the level of opponent moves up significantly in this Round, but Andy Murray will be familiar with what Alexander Bublik can bring to the table having played him twice already in 2022.

Those two previous matches have been split with one win apiece, but this match is being played on a grass court on which Andy Murray may feel he has a real edge.

However, Alexander Bublik has a game that can be dangerous on the grass courts and he was a very comfortable winner over the aforementioned Denis Kudla in the First Round thanks to the serve. He won 76% of points played behind serve and that built up the scoreboard pressure that eventually saw Bublik crack through and win in straight sets.

Alexander Bublik enjoyed a couple of solid grass court runs in 2021 too having held 88% of the service games played in the eleven matches played on the surface and I do think he will go as far as his serve can take him. It helps build scoreboard pressure and makes up for what has been a pretty limited return game.

There is enough from the return to give Andy Murray one or two things to think about, especially as the former Wimbledon Champion admitted he would like to serve better after his First Round win over Christoper O'Connell. In saying that, Andy Murray has been able to hold 90% of his service games in the two matches against Alexander Bublik in 2022 and will feel he can generate enough returns in play to showcase his superior grass court nous.

It certainly won't be an easy match for either player with the serve likely to be crucial to their chances, but I do think Andy Murray can win the big points this time thanks to his previous grass court appearances. Another first set tie-breaker would not be a surprise, but Andy Murray can nose in front and go on and win this Second Round match as he continues his build towards Wimbledon.

Hubert Hurkacz-Marton Fucsovics over 22.5 games: There had been very little suggestion that Hubert Hurkacz was going to be a genuine title contender going into Wimbledon 2021.

He had limited success on the grass courts through his career to that point and Hubert Hurkacz had been beaten in his opening match in Stuttgart and Halle, but he caught fire when he set foot in SW19. A run to the Semi Final is one thing, but Hubert Hurkacz enjoyed victories over the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Roger Federer before losing in four sets in the Semi Final against Matteo Berrettini and the World Number 13 will be feeling much more confident playing on the grass courts in 2022 than he would have been going into 2021.

In saying that, I do think Hubert Hurkacz has to win the fine margins if he is going to have successes on the surface. We know the serve is a potent weapon for Hurkacz on the faster surfaces and he has shown improvements behind that shot in 2018, 2019 and 2021, while he has always held a huge amount of service games on the grass courts.

However, Hubert Hurkacz has struggled on the return and managed to break in 17% of return games played on the grass in 2021, which is an improvement on previous years. That isn't a number that will intimidate too many and you have to feel that Hurkacz will be under pressure to play perfect tie-breakers if he is going to replicate the success of Wimbledon 2021.

I do think Hurkacz could have a bit more of an opportunity against Marton Fucsovics, even though the former Boys' Singles Winner at Junior Wimbledon is comfortable on the grass courts.

The Hungarian is now 30 years old and he has struggled for consistency on the grass courts with a serve that can be vulnerable when offering up too many second serves to attack. While the return of serve is pretty effective on the grass courts, Marton Fucsovics has held only 79% of his service games on a surface which should favour the server and that is a concern when the scoreboard pressure is ramped up in this kind of match.

Marton Fucsovics did reach the Quarter Final at Wimbledon last year and he was a strong First Round winner in Stuttgart so he should not be lacking for confidence. The serve worked well in the First Round and that will be encouraging as Marton Fucsovics takes on an opponent he has beaten in their two previous matches, although those were played in 2018 and Fucsovics and Hubert Hurkacz may have crossed one another in terms of ability since then.

Both players should feel they can serve well enough to push the other and I would not be surprised to see this match needing at least one tie-breaker to begin to separate them. The limited returning of Hubert Hurkacz could mean this is a match that is dominated by each server and I think they can combine to surpass this total games line set.

Stefanos Tsitsipas-Dominic Stricker over 22.5 games: A disappointing French Open is behind Stefanos Tsitsipas and there is little time to regret the relatively early defeat in the second Grand Slam of the season. Despite being in the weaker half of the draw, Stefanos Tsitsipas seemed to struggle with the pressure and he has dropped into World Number 5 after the tournament was concluded.

Now he has to go into the grass court season with the short build towards the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon and this has not been a very enjoyable time of the year for the Greek player.

The 2019 season on the grass has been the exception to the rule, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has largely had average numbers and results on the surface and his First Round defeat at Wimbledon last year was concerning. He may have been undercooked for the grass court Slam after finishing Runner Up at Roland Garros and not taking in any warm up events before Wimbledon began, but this year is looking to be different.

Stefanos Tsitsipas will get his Stuttgart campaign going in the Second Round having received a Bye in the First Round as the top Seed in the draw, while he is expected to play in Halle next week.

His serve is effective on the grass courts and I do think that will give him a chance to put wins on the board, but the big challenge for Stefanos Tsitsipas is improving the return. It is a part of his game that has shown some improvement on the hard courts, but Dominic Stricker can put Tsitsipas under pressure with his own serve that helped him through a difficult First Round match.

Dominic Stricker has served pretty well in his limited grass court matches and upset Hubert Hurkacz here in Stuttgart twelve months ago. He is facing an opponent in Stefanos Tsitsipas who has broken in just 14% of return games in his career grass court matches and who will have some adjustments to make in his first grass court match in 2022.

The return game has been an issue for Dominic Stricker on this surface too and I do think this could be a relatively tight couple of sets played with the serve expected to be on top. If the match was played later in the grass court season, Stefanos Tsitsipas may be expected to really get on top of the return, but this may take some time to adjust on Thursday in the Second Round in Stuttgart and we may need a tie-breaker, or even two, to separate the two on the day.

The total game line isn't short, but it looks in a good place for these players to combine and surpass with the serves expected to be on top and I will look for that to be the outcome of this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz-Marton Fucsovics Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas-Dominic Stricker Over 22.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Veronika Kudermetova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-5, + 0.78 Units (22 Units Staked, + 3.55% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 8th)

Wet weather has meant some of the tournaments are struggling to remain on track this week, but for the most part the events in s'Hertogenbosch, Stuttgart and Nottingham are where they need to be.

Conditions look warmer towards the end of the week, but it could be another wet Wednesday which will mean rain delays and matches perhaps being held over to Thursday. As long as the Second Round matches are completed by Thursday evening, all of these events should be able to be completed without the need for anyone to win twice in a single day.

The format of some of the events being played this week means there have been Byes offered out to the top names that have chosen to take part in the days following the end of the French Open.

Some of those are due out on the courts on Wednesday, including a returning Matteo Berrettini who missed the entirety of the clay court season and who has not played since the Indian Wells Masters in March. The Italian is going to suffer a significant drop in the World Rankings in the weeks ahead having won the title at Queens Club last year and followed up with a Runner Up spot at Wimbledon, but his foremost focus will be to get healthier and return to his best tennis as soon as possible.

Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: Injury forced Jan-Lennard Struff to miss the clay court season and he had last been in action at the Miami Masters in March. The clay courts have been a productive surface for the German so it would have been a blow to miss the last two months, but Jan-Lennard Struff returned in Stuttgart and battled very hard to win his First Round match in three tight sets.

His World Ranking has slipped back outside the top 100 after a 1-9 start to the season with Jan-Lennard Struff losing nine matches in a row before deciding he needed to reset before returning to the Tour.

Whatever had been ailing Jan-Lennard Struff saw him fail to complete his match in Miami and you have to imagine there has been a slight loss of confidence with the losses piling up.

The win in the First Round here will offer a boost, but Jan-Lennard Struff was forced to spend over two hours on the court and it will be a tough recovery time for someone who has been off the Tour for as long as he has.

Facing someone like Lorenzo Sonego will be an additional challenge after the Italian found a liking to the grass courts in 2019. He backed that up with an impressive 2021 on the grass too and Lorenzo Sonego has beaten Benoit Paire in the First Round, an opponent who should be well suited to the surface.

Jan-Lennard Struff has largely not enjoyed his time on the grass courts- he gets more out of the serve, but his return has really been impacted on the surface and Struff is not likely to get much change out of the Lorenzo Sonego serve.

The higher Ranked player has a considerable edge on the return of serve on this surface and I think that makes the difference for Lorenzo Sonego who can book his place in the Stuttgart Quarter Final.

Oscar Otte-Denis Shapovalov over 22.5 games: If you are solely basing Denis Shapovalov's ability to play on the grass courts from his attributes, you would think he has a pretty solid game to play on this surface.

After a couple of seasons where the lefty failed to make a big impact in grass court tournaments, Denis Shapovalov reached the Semi Final at both Queens Club and Wimbledon in 2021 having been a Quarter Finalist in Stuttgart. The defeat to Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon Semi Final was after three hugely competitive sets and Denis Shapovalov may be looking forward to returning onto this surface after a disappointing First Round loss at Roland Garros.

Take away the upset over a limping Rafael Nadal in Rome and you would have to say the clay court season was a disappointment overall for the young Canadian who has yet to really deliver on the promise he has.

While the serve remains a big weapon for him, Denis Shapovalov has struggled with his return and the best approach to that part of his tennis and it is especially telling when you play on the faster surfaces. A first match back on the grass courts could also mean an adjustment period for Denis Shapovalov and I do thin he could have asked for an easier match than facing home player Oscar Otte.

The German was a deserved winner in the First Round against his compatriot and Oscar Otte reached the Second Round at Wimbledon last year after coming through the Qualifiers. That was the sole grass court tournament played by Otte, but he has improved his World Ranking over the last twelve months and that earned him direct entry into the Stuttgart main draw.

It was the serve that proved to be a big weapon for Oscar Otte in his run in SW19, and he will need to use that shot to try and put his higher Ranked opponent under pressure. Serving well could also frustrate Denis Shapovalov who has not been winning consistently and Oscar Otte has held 90% of his service games played on the grass over the last twelve months.

Last season it was Andy Murray who took five sets to end the Otte run and I do think his numbers have largely been produced against players Ranked much lower than Denis Shapovalov. However, he is facing someone who has had issues with his own return and a first match on the surface could leave Denis Shapovalov a little vulnerable if Oscar Otte serves anywhere near where he can.

I do think Shapovalov will be rolling through plenty of his service games too, and the feeling is that this Second Round match could go plenty long. With at least one tie-breaker expected, I think two strong servers can get through service games quickly enough to move into a position to cover this number of games set for the total.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Oscar Otte-Denis Shapovalov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Benjamin Bonzi - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Camila Giorgi - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Shuai Zhang - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Kamil Majchrzak + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-5, - 2.88 Units (18 Units Staked, - 16% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 6th)

The clay court swing has come to a close for a few weeks as the French Open was concluded this past weekend, but the Tour carries on and the grass court season has already begun.

Last week there were a couple of tournaments in the Challenger and ITF level that were played on the grass, but the main build towards Wimbledon will begin this week with tournaments in Stuttgart, Nottingham and s'Hertogenbosch all getting going.

Most of the very top names are not playing, but there are plenty who are getting their preparations for Wimbledon underway before the bigger events in London, Halle and Birmingham next week.

MY PICKS: Oscar Otte - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Marcos Giron - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Soon Woo Kwon - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Heather Watson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jodie Burrage + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 14th)

The rain is playing havoc across Europe and the tennis events this week have not really been able to avoid it either. For the most part the ATP Stuttgart tournament has stayed on schedule, but that is not the case elsewhere on what should have been Quarter Final day at all of the events being played.

It could mean some double duty for a few of the players on Friday, but the majority of the Quarter Finals have been set and will hopefully be completed on the day.


I was disappointed with the way the Thursday selections went and a bit frustrated with some of my decision making. The good news is that those poor decisions were recognised and hopefully will be turned around before the week is up.


Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 games v Denis Kudla: The grass court season is a good time for Denis Kudla and his record on the surface is perhaps not a complete indication of how well he can play. A Semi Final run in Surbiton ended with a harsh defeat to Victor Troicki, but the American has refused to let that get him down and he has played well on his way to a Quarter Final in Stuttgart.

A battling win over Gael Monfils saw Kudla dig deep and come through a final set tie-breaker in a match that lasted close to two and a half hours. I do wonder if that is going to play some part in this Quarter Final with no rest days between matches as you have in the Grand Slams, but the quicker points on the grass does help with any recovery.

Denis Kudla has always got a real bite out of his serve on the grass and over the last couple of seasons he has proved to be someone who can use that to pressurise opponents on the return. The American is going to need all of that returning ability when he takes on Matteo Berrettini who is an improving player on the Tour and moved into the top 30 of the World Rankings.

It should mean Berrettini is in a position to be Seeded at Wimbledon and his two wins in Stuttgart have not only been impressive for who he has beaten, but also the manner in which the Italian has won. Wins over Nick Kyrgios and Karen Khachanov have come in straight sets and Berretini has not faced a break point in either match as the big serve has set him up to control points from the off.

He is getting plenty out of the return too and I do think Berrettini can outhit Kudla in this big serving match. I am anticipating both players to run through some service games without too many issues, but Berrettini is someone who looks like he could be a comfortable grass courter and with the right draw at Wimbledon he may be able to earn plenty of Ranking points too.

Both players will be familiar with one another as they play for the sixth time since the Australian Open in January 2018. So far it is Kudla who leads 3-2, but the two matches in 2019 have been split and Berrettini has looked the better player without quite winning both matches.

Those two matches have come on different surfaces with Kudla winning a hard court match and Berrettini winning on the clay. Those results might have been expected, but it is Berrettini who looked stronger behind serve in both matches, but he was not able to deal with the pressurised break points as well as he would have liked. That could be a problem on the grass where it is so hard to retrieve breaks of serve, but I think Berrettini can edge past Kudla in this one and he may have enough to cover this number too.


Milos Raonic - 2.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: After missing the entire clay court season, Milos Raonic must be happy that he is back and winning matches on the Tour. The next month is important for him to prevent a slide down the World Rankings with plenty of points to defend, and that includes a run to the Final in Stuttgart twelve months ago.

The Canadian has beaten Alexei Popyrin and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on his way to the Quarter Final, but both matches have taken three sets and Raonic has spent plenty of time on the court. That has to be a concern for a player who has been off the Tour for as long as Raonic has been, but he is serving very well and that is always going to put some pressure on opponents.

In this tournament Raonic has held 97% of the service games he has played and he is someone whose serve has always been the most effective on this surface. The only reason matches have not been that straight-forward for Raonic is his poor returning numbers so far, but he may get a few more chances against Marton Fucsovics.

All credit has to be given to Fucsovics who has beaten Jaume Munar and Nikoloz Basilashvili and who has held 85% of the service games he has played. However it should be noted that this number is far above his usual levels produced on the grass courts and I do think he will eventually see it come down to a more consistent standard that Fucsovics has been able to produce.

His returning is superior to Raonic's, but Fucsovics will have to show he has learnt plenty from the 6-4, 6-2 defeat suffered to the Canadian on this court twelve months ago. On that day Fucsovics could not get his teeth into the Raonic serve at all and it was the higher Ranked player who was more comfortable when it came to the return and I do think something similar could occur in this Quarter Final.

You can't ignore the amount of time Raonic has spent on the court on his return to the Tour, but I think the serve does make his life easier. If Raonic continues to find his marks as he has been, I think he will have the majority of break points and can have one of his more straight-forward wins of the week.


Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Christian Garin: There was a time when Borna Coric was perhaps not at his most comfortable on the grass courts, but in 2019 he is looking to follow on from his most successful year on the surface. I have mentioned before that the small sample from the three or four tournaments on the grass can make it difficult to really get a good read of how players can and have been performing on the surface, but the signs for the young Croatian are good.

Last year he reached the Final in Halle and I think it may be a positive sign that he has taken in the tournament in Hertogenbosch. My feeling is that Coric does believe he can perform well enough on the grass if he gives himself time to get a few matches under his belt and the come from behind win over Taylor Fritz will boost the mindset.

Borna Coric played well in that match and his serve proved to be a key weapon, while his return is always going to be one that can put opponents under pressure.

In this Quarter Final Coric is taking on Christian Garin who is another young, improving player on the Tour. In the last couple of years Garin has only played at Wimbledon with his Ranking giving him a place in the main draw, but defeats in the First Round each time suggested he might not be at his best on the grass.

I am still not quite sure how comfortable Garin is on the grass, but back to back wins in Hertogenbosch will help. His serve is perhaps not as effective as Coric's, but Garin has been returning very well in his two matches here with breaks of serve in 45% of return games played.

Again I will mention the relatively small sample and the percentage of points won on the return are markedly up on his previous performances on the surface. I am not sure Garin will have the same kind of success when he faces Borna Coric whose serve should set him up a little better than Garin over the course of this match.

It could be a fun match with both players capable on the return, but I think Coric is the superior grass courter and he can show that with a win and a cover of this spread.

MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-9, - 5.74 Units (32 Units Staked, - 17.94% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 13th)

The weather in London isn't exactly screaming June and summer, but the same can be said around Europe.

Both events in Stuttgart and Hertogenbosch have been affected by the poor conditions around, but at least they managed to keep their events on track for the most part. On Thursday the Cricket World Cup arrives in Nottingham for the latest game in that tournament, but fans won't be too pleased to know that the WTA event and ATP Challenger event being held there has been moved indoors because of all the rain that has been in the area this week.

It looks like more of the same there on Thursday, but my focus is on the matches that are actually going to be played on the grass. I had a mixed Tuesday, but I am disappointed I did not write anything out for Wednesday. Life got in the way a little bit, but that is just the way it goes and there are angles that hit the mark for Thursday to try and get this week moving in a positive direction.


The one issue with grass court events is that we don't get a huge sample of form or how players are going to deal with the surface. There are some players out there on Thursday who might not have had much fun on the grass in their careers so far, but these things can quickly be turned around in the three or four events players take in over the next month.

Small samples mean it is tougher to get a read of how a player can perform on the grass, but we do have enough to make plays on the way through to Wimbledon when more stock can be put into the form displayed in the weeks leading to the third Grand Slam of the season.

It is something to consider and will also make a difference for those matches that are hitting enough marks to mak the selections over the remainder of the month.


Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: A couple of years ago Adrian Mannarino recorded his first win over Fernando Verdasco when these two players met on the grass courts of Antalya. They play in the Second Round in Hertogenbosch on Thursday and this is the first match the Spaniard will be playing on the grass in 2019.

There was a time when Verdasco was actually a pretty happy player on the grass, but the last couple of years have been more of a struggle for him. He has been losing a lot more than he has been winning and Verdasco's numbers have been average to say the least despite what you would consider to be a decent game that should transfer onto the surface.

To be fair to Verdasco, he has maintained decent hold numbers on the grass over the last few years. However the return has not had the same impact and that has left him vulnerable in matches and I think that is especially the case early in this grass season as he gets set to take on a competent player on the surface who already has produced a win to move into the Second Round.

Adrian Mannarino will be glad to be moving from off the clay and onto the grass courts, although there is some pressure on him with plenty of points to defend over the next month. Last year he reached the Final in Antalya and also had a Quarter Final run at Queens and Fourth Round run at Wimbledon so it may be difficult for Mannarino to prevent the slide down the World Rankings his last twelve months perhaps deserved.

His win in the First Round was a good one, but against an opponent who has not played a lot of tennis at this level in the last couple of years through injury. There have been signs that Mannarino is declining as a player and 2018 was a much tougher year on the grass compared with 2017 even though he earned one more win that year.

The Frenchman has a vulnerable serve which is a concern going into this match, but I do think he finds enough returns that can stay low on the grass which can cause problems for his opponent. Adrian Mannarino is confident enough on a grass court to believe he can win this match even though Fernando Verdasco is the more talented player on the court.


Richard Gasquet - 1.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: It is going to take Richard Gasquet a little bit of time to recover to a point where he can play his best tennis on the Tour. A long injury lay off and a return on the clay courts was perhaps far from ideal, but Gasquet is one of the more comfortable grass court players out there.

His win in the First Round in Hertogenbosch looks a solid one even if Gasquet needed three tough sets which could have sapped some energy. He certainly was more convincing than Mikhail Kukushkin, although I do think this is another player who is very happy on the grass and can use a decent serve to set up his entire performance from match to match.

Both players do have solid serves for the surface and they can both return effectively enough which makes this a close match. The lack of matches in the legs in 2019 may affect Richard Gasquet, but his serve has proved to be more potent of the two in their previous matches.

That may be the case and the difference maker when they play each other in this Second Round match. I do think Kukushkin will challenge Gasquet considering his own level on the grass and those lack of matches I have mentioned, but the Frenchman is someone who can produce some of his best tennis on this surface and I expect him to edge this one.

MY PICKS: Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini-Karen Khachanov Over 24.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-6, - 1.34 Units (24 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)

Season 2019: + 75.37 Units (956 Units Staked, + 7.88% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 11th)

There isn't much I can say about Rafael Nadal that hasn't already been said before- any player that wins twelve Grand Slams in one tournament has to be given the utmost respect.

It is amazing to think that Pete Sampras reaching fourteen total Slams was such a huge achievement that we have seen the likes of Roger Federer, Nadal and Novak Djokovic now take that number to a new level. Who would argue against Nadal from matching Sampras' total at the French Open alone?

You can only say it has been a remarkable time in men's tennis as we watch three of the absolute greatest players of all time compete and now we head into the grass court season when all three will believe they can win the next Grand Slam of 2019.

Wimbledon comes around pretty sharpish following the conclusion of the French Open and the grass court season has already begun. I did not make any selections on Monday because I had seen the weather and was not expecting a lot of tennis to be played in Stuttgart, Hertogenbosch or Nottingham.

This will I will mainly be avoiding the WTA Nottingham event because it feels like one that is going to be played on a different surface than the outdoors grass we would have expected. Rain is hammering the UK through the week and we don't need much to see grass court matches interrupted and that looks to be the case for all of the ladies playing in that event.

The other two venues look to be in a position that they will enjoy better conditions for the majority of the week and on Tuesday my first grass court selections in 2019 will come from those events.

I won't be able to write up any analysis for those Picks on Tuesday, and there are a lot of Picks to open this week with a full First Round of matches scheduled at these events. Hopefully we can get this week off to a positive beginning and I will then update the season totals on Wednesday from the French Open after securing a couple of winners in the women's and men's Finals over the weekend.


MY PICKS: Aleksandra Krunic @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannick Sinner @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mikhail Kukushkin - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Kudla - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 17th)

This has been a very strong week for the Tennis Picks and I have a couple to round off the tournaments as I look to put an exclamation mark on the week.

It has been a busy day all around which means I will simply place the Tennis Picks from the four Finals set to be played on Sunday below.

MY PICKS: Kirsten Flipkens @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 21-10, + 16.94 Units (62 Units Staked, + 27.32% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 16th)

At this time it is going to be hard to put down my full analysis for the Tennis matches being played over the weekend.

After another positive day with Friday producing a positive return I have a few Tennis Picks for Saturday as we get to the Semi Final matches at the events being played this past week.


MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kirsten Flipkens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units

Weekly Update: 17-9, + 11.62 Units (52 Units Staked, + 22.35% Yield

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 15th)

After a mixed Wednesday, Thursday proved to be another effective day of Tennis Picks with the five completed matches returning four winners.

One of the matches, Kirsten Flipkens vs Kiki Bertens, was postponed until Friday in Hertogenbosch as the weather has affected the WTA tournament being played there. That is one of a couple of matches that has to be competed on Friday in the Second Round with the winning player scheduled to play again later in the day in the Quarter Final.

The rest of the tournaments being played this week have all reached the Quarter Final Round and there are plenty of matches scheduled for Friday as all of those tournaments reach the business end of the week.


Richard Gasquet - 2.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: It is going to be very interesting to see the development of Stefanos Tsitsipas in the years ahead, but I think he is being priced up in this Quarter Final as someone who has already begun to prove himself on all surfaces.

All credit has to be given to Tsitsipas for what was a strong run on the clay courts which is an important step in his development, but he is yet to show he can consistently produce on the other surfaces. Playing on the grass courts are perhaps the steepest of the learning curves for players who are not accustomed to the surface and Tsitsipas is going to get a tough lesson from Richard Gasquet on Friday.

You have to also respect the fact that Tsitsipas has won two matches here, but both have come against players who are someway inferior to Gasquet on the grass courts and both wins were closer than the youngster would have liked. While it is important to show you can win matches when not at your best, but this is just the seventh match Tsitsipas will have played on grass and I think Gasquet exposes that.

While his opponent is learning and perhaps been a little fortunate to get past Malek Jaziri on Thursday, Gasquet was a dominant winner. Over the years it could be argued that the grass courts are the favourite surface for Gasquet who has a quality slice and strong numbers in both the serve and return department.

Gasquet won't be as strong as he was in his win over Evgeny Donskoy in every match, but he is someone who will feel he can produce enough variation on the grass to give Tsitsipas some tough looks to deal with. The Frenchman returns well enough to get more joy against the Tsitsipas serve than his last two opponents have, while Tsitsipas' 15% career break percentage on the grass courts have only been improved slightly by his 17% break percentage in his first two matches against players who simply don't play as well as Gasquet.

This could be a good looking match for the fans, but Gasquet should have the edge and I think he wins and covers a number I expected to be a little higher.


Denis Istomin-Lucas Pouille over 22.5 games: Two players who have enjoyed playing on the grass courts in their careers and who come into this Quarter Final with some solid wins behind them meet on Friday in Stuttgart.

The Denis Istomin wins over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Florian Mayer are made all the more impressive when you see the fashion in which he controlled the matches against two very good grass court players. You could say that both German veterans have declined in general, but on this surface they are not an easy out yet Istomin was the dominant winner in both matches.

Lucas Pouille is the defending Champion in Stuttgart and he was a strong winner as expected in the Second Round and I think these two players can combine for a very good match.

Istomin serves very well on the grass courts and his hold percentages have been very strong over the last few years. Where there can be some struggles for Istomin is on the returning side of the court, but if he serves as he can then it is going to be very tough for Pouille to break his game down on the grass.

That is down to the limitations that come with the Pouille returning game and is one of the main reasons I struggle to see him lasting in the top 20 of the World Rankings for the long haul. He has talent, but Pouille has to improve his break percentage to really take the next step in his career and I do think Istomin will be able to serve well enough to get through his games and into potential tie-breaker situations in the match.

The Frenchman's own serve has worked effectively on the grass in the last couple of seasons with 82% and 83% hold percentages in 2016 and 2017. With Istomin also having some problems in the returning aspect I think it will be tough for either player to retrieve a break position so there is every chance we will need a deciding set in this one.

One break may be enough to separate the two over two sets too and I will look for these two players to combine for enough holds of serve to cover the total games line, even if it is a touch on the high side.

MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Denis Istomin-Lucas Pouille Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-7, + 9.26 Units (40 Units Staked, + 23.15% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 14th)

Yesterday was a really mixed bag for the Tennis Picks which saw all four Picks from Hertogenbosch come out on the wrong side, but the other four selections returning as winners which means it is a small loss for the day.

The week is still in a good position, but Thursday is another day to try and get on top with a number of matches looking like they fit into what I am looking for.

It isn't always the case on a week to week basis on the Tennis Tour, but the first three days have provided a number of options to back and Thursday is proving to be no different.

I've analysed the two men's selections and added the women's selections below.


Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Evgeny Donskoy: The return to the grass courts in a much healthier state than twelve months ago could be huge for Richard Gasquet who has always produced some solid results on the surface. Last season there were doubts about how he was feeling at this time of the season but Gasquet still managed to reach two Tour Semi Finals on the grass courts.

The first match on the surface can be a tough transition especially coming in off the clay courts, but Gasquet is very experienced on the grass and I don't expect it to take him too long to get his feet under him.

He can't really afford to take too much time against Evgeny Donskoy who had a very comfortable win in the First Round here. In recent years Donskoy has struggled for the consistency which could have him playing much higher up the Tour level, but he can be dangerous on the clay courts with some good looking numbers in his wins on the surface.

Donskoy has to still prove that he can bring his form from matches against players lower down the Ranking into those when he faces some of the better players around. His performance on the grass courts against opponents inside the top 100 of the World Ranking are significantly weaker than his overall numbers, while Donskoy does not get enough of the return to put his opponents under concerted pressure.

He may have some chances against the Gasquet serve which can be a little up and down especially if Donskoy sees a lot of second serves which he can attack from the off. However I would expect Gasquet to start picking the serve of Donskoy and forcing the Russian to beat him from the back of the court and I would give the Frenchman a significant edge in those rallies as they develop.

The spread is a funny number as a slow start from Gasquet could make it very difficult to cover. Donskoy also had two relatively competitive losses on the grass last year, but Gasquet could be the best player he has played on this surface and I think Gasquet will find a break more in each set of a straight sets win in this match.


Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: This is a Second Round match in Stuttgart and one in which I would have thought Feliciano Lopez would have been an even stronger favourite to win. His game is still perfectly suited to the grass courts and I would expect Lopez to have too much for Gilles Simon.

It is Lopez who leads the head to head between these players 4-2, but it more interesting to note that three of those wins have come on the grass courts including last year here in Stuttgart.

There is no doubting that Lopez is the superior player on the grass courts and his numbers have backed that up as well as the head to head between these two players. Both have had comfortable wins to get through the First Round here in Stuttgart, and it is Lopez' strong serving which has proven to be a key for him on the surface.

I do have to have some reservations about the poor returning Lopez generally displays, although 2017 was a stand out year for him on the grass courts. The Spaniard is facing an opponent who has struggled with his own return on the grass courts and I think Simon won't be able to bunt too many balls back into play with Lopez willing to get up to the net and cut off the loopy defensive shots.

The Simon serving numbers have slipped in each of the last four seasons in terms of hold percentage as well as points percentage won behind that shot. That has to be a concern for Simon who has been convincingly outplayed by Lopez in all three defeats to him on the grass courts throughout their careers.

It feels that Lopez will be able to get in front on the scoreboard and that can put enough pressure on Simon to see him crack behind his own serve a couple of times in this match. That should be good enough for Lopez to work his way to a win and a cover in this Second Round encounter as Lopez gets ready for another strong run during the grass court season.

MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kirsten Flipkens + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-6, + 4.36 Units (30 Units Staked, + 14.53% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 13th)

I was out on Monday which meant I was unable to do the research I would have liked for the Tennis matches that were scheduled to be played on Tuesday and so there were no Picks yesterday.

That is not the case on Wednesday as I look to build on what was a very good Monday for the Tennis Picks which went 5-2.

With the World Cup kicking off in Russia on Thursday, I have automated my Outright Picks from that tournament to come out tomorrow and will then have the thread for the first round of Group games ready to go on Thursday with Picks added through the tournament.

At the same time I will continue to put the Tennis Picks together whenever I find matches that fit into my requirements and those will come throughout the grass court season in the build to Wimbledon.

Like Monday I will have the analysis of the men's matches I am picking from Hertogenbosch and Stuttgart and add the women's selections in the 'MY PICKS' part of the thread.


Yuichi Sugita v Marius Copil: Both men have got their grass court seasons off to strong starts with good looking wins on Monday and the layers are setting the line for this one as a pick 'em.

I can understand why Yuichi Sugita is the narrow favourite to win this match and I like the price enough to back him after doing the same in the First Round. I said at the time I leaned towards Marius Copil beating Aljaz Bedene, but I wasn't completely convinced by the relatively poor return numbers on the grass courts which were still on show in the win the big server had.

You can get carried away with how big Copil serves which should make him very tough to break down on the grass courts, but Sugita's returning is the key to this match. He has shown he can put opponents under pressure on the grass and actually beat Copil relatively comfortably on the surface last year in Surbiton.

The Sugita serve is also an underrated shot on the grass and I think he will be able to exploit the limited return game that Copil has. It should mean Sugita is going to get the better of the rallies once we get past the first couple of shots on the Copil serve and I think that does give him the edge in this Second Round match.

Scoreboard pressure could be the best way for Copil to find a way to beat Sugita but I would imagine it is the latter who has the majority of the break point chances in this match. I also think Sugita is the more effective overall player on the grass courts and he can do enough to beat Copil and move onto another Quarter Final on this surface.


Gilles Muller - 1.5 games v Matthew Ebden: The move off the clay courts and back onto the grass should be good for Gilles Muller, although the left hander could be overrated after an especially strong 2017 on the surface. Prior to that his numbers had not been as impressive, but the big serve will always make Muller dangerous.

Last year it was the returning numbers that really jumped off the page and helped Muller with a strong run at Wimbledon that saw him beat Rafael Nadal.

It was a special season for Muller on that front and I am not convinced he will replicate those on the grass courts in 2018. However the serve should remain a big weapon for him and it can be one that can put pressure on opponents to make sure they are holding onto their own serve.

Matthew Ebden will have to face that in the Second Round in Hertogenbosch, but his confidence could not be in a better place having reached the Semi Final in Surbiton last week. He played a lot of tennis and putting the wins together would have raised the belief going into a match of this magnitude for him.

The Australian had some decent numbers on the grass courts in 2017, but he was operating at a lower level than the one he is facing on Wednesday. Ebden doesn't have the best returning numbers which makes this a very tough match up for him and I do think it will be the scoreboard pressure which sees Muller get in front in this one with one break likely enough to see him through a set.

Muller's serve is also likely to be a difference maker in any tie-breaker situation which comes into the match and I like the big serving left hander to win this match and cover the number.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: This is a very interesting grass court match, but I do think the improving youngster is perhaps a little underrated even as a convincing favourite in this match.

Daniil Medvedev didn't have a good clay court campaign, but he is much more at home on the grass courts and I expect some solid wins for him in the weeks head. He was a very good winner in the First Round when dismissing Yuki Bhambri in straight sets and getting his feet back on the grass should give him the edge over veteran Fernando Verdasco.

For the Spaniard it is a first match back on the grass courts and he has performed admirably on the surface over the years. However there has been a clear decline in the numbers over the last few years and I think that will be give Medvedev the edge in this Second Round match.

While the Verdasco serving numbers are still relatively strong, his hold percentage on the grass has dropped from 86% to 82% over the last four years to 2017 and that slippage can be very detrimental to a player whose return game has not been too hot on this surface. There was a relatively successful 17% break percentage in 2016, but the other three seasons where the serve has slipped has seen Verdasco breaking in less than 14% of games.

He may have a little more of a chance breaking the Medvedev serve, which is still developing into the kind of weapon he would like, but it is the return game from the Russian which really stands out. He has broken at 28% in 2016 and 30% in 2017 which is a very strong showing on the grass courts and Medvedev broke the Bhambri serve four times in the First Round.

Medvedev should have the edge on the returning side of the game and I think he can win this one and cover the handicap.


Maximilian Marterer - 3.5 games v Viktor Galovic: You have to be careful not to be backing Maximilian Marterer at a time when he could be potentially overrated after a strong showing at the French Open. The memorable third set performance against Rafael Nadal in the Fourth Round will have given Marterer some real confidence, but this is a new surface and a new tournament for the youngster searching for some consistency.

I do think he can get the better of Lucky Loser Viktor Galovic who is playing his third grass court match in his career. He didn't play badly in Qualifying which suggests this is going to be far from an easy match for Marterer, but I do think Galovic could have his problems against the lefty too.

Marterer had some decent performances on the grass twelve months ago and a strong serve can give him the chance to go on the attack on the return of serve. His opponent allowed Denis Kudla to create 19 break point opportunities in the final Qualifying Round here in Stuttgart and Golovic is likely to be put under some pressure from Marterer who had a decent 20% break percentage on the grass in 2017.

That was from a relatively small sample but Marterer will have the crowd support behind him which can see him come through this match.

He is also 3-0 against Golovic in previous matches including at the US Open Qualifiers last August and I think he can improve that record with a win on Wednesday.


Benoit Paire v Taylor Fritz: This is a virtual pick 'em in the First Round in Stuttgart but I am going to give the edge to the Frenchman to reverse his loss to Taylor Fritz from the Indian Wells Masters in 2017.

One concern is that this is the first match on the grass for Benoit Paire in 2018 compared with Taylor Fritz who won three matches in Surbiton last week as he came through the Qualifiers there. The American has a strong serve which has to be respected, but Fritz has yet to get to grips with the returning aspect on the grass courts and that could be an issue in this match against Paire.

It is Paire who has the stronger returning numbers on the grass courts, but he hadn't had a lot of success on the surface prior to 2017. Last season was a different story though as Paire produced a combined 107% hold/break percentage on the grass and he should have the edge over Fritz.

Fritz is now just 7-11 on the grass courts in his young career and I like Paire even if he can be a tough player to trust on any given day to perform at his best.

In this one Paire should be good enough to at least create the majority of the break point opportunities and I like him to win this match at a tournament where he reached the Semi Final last year.


Mischa Zverev + 4.5 games v Roger Federer: He's back.

Roger Federer skipped the clay court season to make sure he is at peak fitness for the Wimbledon and US Open tournaments where the Swiss superstar believes he can win and add to his tally of Grand Slam titles. There are a huge number of points for Federer to defend in the coming weeks, but he looks the favourite for another title at Wimbledon next month.

However it can't be ignored that Federer made a slow start to the grass court season in 2017 when he was beaten in the Second Round in Stuttgart which was his first match on the surface.

I don't think that happens here against Mischa Zverev, but the German is very effective on the grass courts with a strong serve and the ability to put balls away at the net. Not many would have forgotten the double bagel Federer handed out against Zverev in Halle a few years ago, but last year they played each other twice on the grass courts and both were very competitive matches.

If Federer is needing a little time to find his best form after the long lay off from the courts then someone like Zverev can make it very tough for him. The lack of rhythm you get against a player who will serve-volley can be difficult for a player with little court time to get very comfortable and Federer could be pushed here.

Ultimately I think Zverev's return game won't be good enough to earn the win, but he can give Federer something to think about. It should be a fun match for the fans to watch and I will back the veteran to serve well enough to get within the number in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Yuichi Sugita @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Maximilian Marterer - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Benoit Paire @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Irina Falconi + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-2, + 5.66 Units (14 Units Staked, + 40.43% Yield)