French Open Tennis Day 15 Pick 2023- Men's Final (June 11th)

I have to say, this has been one of the toughest ends to a Grand Slam for my Picks in a long time and it has been as frustrating as it could have been.

Once again a player seemed in control, had all of the chances and I am not sure how Iga Swiatek blew her big lead and almost lost the French Open Final. Credit should rightly be given to Karolina Muchova, but at 2-6, 0-3, 30/30, I don't think the Czech player would have had a lot of belief herself and was very much helped by a nervous performance from Iga Swiatek.

Ultimately the Pole won the French Open title for the third time in four years and that will give her confidence as Swiatek prepares to go into the tough grass court season.

Before that we have the Men's Final to come and you can read my selection below.

I will be taking a short break from the Tennis Picks before Wimbledon just to analyse this tournament and see how I can improve for the third Grand Slam of the season. While some of the last few days is down to bad luck, there are always areas to improve with the selections and the short gap between now and Wimbledon is a good time to just have a look into how those improvements can be made.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Casper Ruud: The Men's French Open Final on Sunday will conclude the second Grand Slam of the 2023 season and we are going to be a little over three weeks away from the start of Wimbledon.

The defending Champion in SW19 is Novak Djokovic and he has the chance of winning a second Grand Slam in a row and overtaking Rafael Nadal to be in sole control of the most Singles Grand Slam titles won by a male player. Win at Wimbledon and he matches Margaret Court's overall record, but Djokovic will not be looking too far ahead and has to be focused as he tries to win a third French Open title.

This has been the 'least successful' Grand Slam for Novak Djokovic, even if he did set a new record of having reached seventeen Quarter Finals at Roland Garros. However, the Serb has won this title the fewest times, although Novak Djokovic has lost more US Open Finals than here in Paris.

It has been a remarkable career and one that looks far from over, even if Novak Djokovic is not playing at the same kind of level he has been in previous years. This level is still good enough to beat most players on the Tour, especially in the best of five setting, while the Semi Final proved that there is a huge mental challenge for anyone standing across the net from him.

Novak Djokovic was the first to admit that the Semi Final with Carlos Alcaraz was extremely competitive for two sets and that the Spaniard was the better player at the end of the second set, but tension, emotion and the opportunity to beat one of the all time greats clearly impacted the younger player. Seeing someone cramp up in the manner Alcaraz did was hugely surprising, but just backs up the feeling that all of the other players on the Tour are going into Grand Slam matches with Novak Djokovic with a lot of mental obstacles to overcome.

Now it is a test for Casper Ruud who was not expected to have this kind of run at the French Open having underperformed in the lead up events. The Runner Up from 2022 is clearly enjoying playing in the tournament and he has reached a third Grand Slam Final in twelve months, although Ruud has come up short against Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz previously.

The Norwegian would have certainly been hoping for an 'easier' challenge in the French Open Final in 2023, but Casper Ruud will be trying to focus on his own tennis, which has been peaking in the last four Rounds heading into the Final. His win over Alexander Zverev in the Semi Final was very impressive, but beating the likes of Zverev, Holger Rune and Nicolas Jarry may not a level that is enough to beat Novak Djokovic.

Casper Ruud has to serve well- ultimately this let him down in the Final twelve months ago when he allowed Rafael Nadal to pile up sixteen Break Points and lost serve eight times.

There is also a weakness in the backhand, which is likely going to be exploited by Novak Djokovic better than most, and I can see why this has been a poor match up for Casper Ruud so far in his career.

Novak Djokovic has won all four previous matches since September 2020 and two of those have been on the clay courts in Rome. The former World Number 1 has won 41% of return points played against Casper Ruud, but that number jumps a little to 42% in their clay court matches and it has seen Novak Djokovic break serve in 35% of return games played.

Compared to that, Casper Ruud has won 33% of return points and only broken in 10% of return games played on this surface against this opponent and their meeting in Rome in May 2022 was a more routine win for Novak Djokovic than the 6/4, 6/3 scoreline might have indicated.

The elbow issue is a concern for Novak Djokovic fans, but I think he is helped by the way the Semi Final ended and he does have an edge on the serve. He will know exactly how to prepare for this French Open Final, while Casper Ruud had not been returning as well in this tournament as his Break Point conversion rate would suggest prior to the win over Alexander Zverev in the Semi Final and I think it could be another tough afternoon in the spotlight on the final day at the French Open for the 24 year old.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

French Open Update: 39-33, - 0.02 Units (144 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2022- Trevor Bryan vs Daniel Dubois (June 11th)

There are moments in any sporting event you may watch where you feel you are seeing something truly special.

Naoya Inoue's crushing victory over Nonito Donaire was one of those moments and The Monster has moved to the top of many pound for pound lists released in the last few days.

It is a win that will hopefully give UK fans the chance to see Inoue in the flesh again with the final Belt between him and Undisputed in the Bantamweight Division being held by Paul Butler from Liverpool. Naoya Inoue would be a monster favourite to win that fight, pardon the pun, and it should be a fight that can be put together pretty easily with promoters in Great Britain likely to be falling over one another to get this one over the line.

However, Japanese and Middle East venues may also step forward to host the Undisputed fight and I do think there is every chance we could see that in September or October before Naoya Inoue looks to move up a Division and challenge himself further.

The Tuesday showing was a weird one, but it did give Naoya Inoue the sole platform to earn the boxing headlines.

On Saturday multiple fighters will be looking to do the same with a number of cards in the United Kingdom and the United States that will be of interest. Some big names are in action, while we could see the continued development of a couple of solid prospects that will be pushing to get into World Title bids within the next twelve to eighteen months.

It will be a busy day of Boxing over several hours and you can read my thoughts below.

Richard Riakporhe vs Fabio Turchi

You have to credit the kind of development the Richard Riakporhe backers have put together for their man and he continues to step up and impress.

He may only have fourteen professional fights under his belt, but Richard Riakporhe has some solid wins in that time and I expect he will have too much for Italian Fabio Turchi who looked to have been exposed in an upset loss to Tommy McCarthy.

The sole defeat suffered by Turchi may have come on a Split Decision, but anyone who watched the fight will have felt that Tommy McCarthy should have been a clear winner. Fabio Turchi looked a little one-paced and he has had three relatively low level wins since that defeat to McCarthy as he looks to rebuild.

Now he has to take on the power of Richard Riakporhe who is just putting some momentum behind a career that had been stalled by injury. At 32 years old, Riakporhe may feel his time is now to make a statement in the Cruiserweight Division and a win in a bout like this one should only improve his Ranking as he gets closer to the top names.

He may have to show some patience in this one against a hardened opponent, but I do think Richard Riakporhe has shown his power can carry in a fight.

I can see him just breaking down Fabio Turchi and wearing him down and Richard Riakporhe may have the power to get him out of there. On the comeback trail, Riakporhe has gone at least Eight Rounds in two of the three fights he has had and I think the British fighter will need to use his boxing to set up the power shots.

This may mean looking for openings as the Rounds tick on and Fabio Turchi tires and I do think Richard Riakporhe is going to be able to land something very big after halfway and that will be the beginning of the end of the Italian fighter. A Stoppage in and around the Championship Rounds would make the statement Richard Riakporhe will be looking for before taking on another step up in class in a few months time.

There are plenty of fights on the undercard of this televised card, but the focus is on Zak Chelli who takes on unbeaten Germaine Brown for the English Super Middleweight Title.

The Londoner has been a touch unfortunate to not have an even stronger record than his 11-1-1 resume and Zak Chelli impressed in his win over Jack Kilgannon in early April. He wants to be more active and I do think Chelli has the toughness and the experience to beat an opponent who is stepping up a level.

Germaine Brown will be confident as an unbeaten fighter would be, while he does have a couple of solid wins behind him. I am just not sure he has the pop to keep Chelli from pressing forward and this is a big opportunity for Zak Chelli to try and get his career moving in a direction he believes he deserves.

We also have another card in the United Kingdom on the same night and that one in Telford is headed by the main event of Marc Leach versus Liam Davies.

That should be a good one, but the sole selection I have from that card is backing a returning Willy Hutchinson to record an early win.

An upset loss to Lennox Clarke in March 2021 was a major setback for the Scot and he has not fought since then, but returns on the undercard in Telford and I expect him to make short work of Karel Horejsek.

This is a fighter that hits hard very early on and Karek Horejsek may not have the durability at 40 years old as he once did. He has only been stopped twice in thirteen losses, but Willy Hutchinson will want to remove any negative memories of his last appearance in the ring as soon as possible and could close the show before we reach halfway in a scheduled Eight Rounder.

Trevor Bryan vs Daniel Dubois

Forget the WBA 'World Title' that these two are fighting for and instead focus on the fact that the winner could be in line to be the first contender to face either Anthony Joshua or Oleksandr Usyk depending on the outcome of the rematch that is rumoured to be taking place in August.

I have been pretty high on Daniel Dubois and I am not going to be too harsh on him for the loss to Joe Joyce. He looked like he could have won that fight on the cards if not for a devastating orbital bone injury, but Dubois has bounced back pretty effectively since then.

Daniel Dubois has needed a total of Three Rounds to win his last two fights since the defeat to Joe Joyce and he is a huge favourite to beat Trevor Bryan on his home soil.

Trevor Bryan picked up this WBA 'Title' by beating Bermane Stiverne after Manuel Charr had been stripped of the Belt. He needed Eleven Rounds to beat Stiverne and then won a Split Decision over Jonathan Guidry, but this feels another step up and I do think Trevor Bryan has the same kind of feeling as Charles Martin did before his fight with Anthony Joshua.

The American is saying all the right things, but he has largely been inactive in recent years and Trevor Bryan will have to deal with a power he has simply not had to face before.

I don't think Bryan will have the movement to get away from Daniel Dubois and one of the more vicious punchers coming up has regularly blown through opponents very early. This feels like it could go the same way and I will back Daniel Dubois to bring this Belt back to Britain before chasing bigger fights.

He could potentially get this done very early too and I will back Dubois to make this a good nights work.

We have a couple of other cards in the United States that will be starting a little while after the Daniel Dubois bid to win a Title has concluded.

It isn't that long ago that Jaime Munguia would have been the star name of any night, but recent bouts have been underwhelming. The continued decisions to avoid taking an Eliminator for a World Title fight is confusing to say the least, while he has now decided to take this fight at Super Middleweight.

His power continues to be a factor even when moving up in weight, but it is hard to really judge Munguia when he continues to face overmatched opponents.

Next up is Jimmy Kelly who has lost his biggest fights against Liam Smith and Dennis Hogan, two opponents that Jaime Munguia did beat.

Jimmy Kelly showed enough resistance to believe he can give Jaime Munguia some Rounds, but the power of the latter should break that resistance at some point in the middle of this bout.

Getting through the early Rounds will be challenging, but I think Kelly can just about hang on before it all gets a bit too much and Jaime Munguia is able to stop another overmatched opponent.

On the undercard, Oscar Jurado can continue his streak of stoppages since his sole defeat.

He is facing an opponent who was stopped in Three Rounds and who has lost three of his five defeats inside the distance. Another early night could be on the cards for Jurado.

Finally we have Edgar Berlanga back in the ring as he main events again.

There have been some serious criticisms of Berlanga since his Knock Out streak ended and his last three fights have all gone the distance. The power is real, but Edgar Berlanga has struggled when opponents have offered up some resistance and I expect that from Alexis Angulo.

The Colombian completed Ten Rounds against David Benavidez before being pulled out, and Angulo also went the full Twelve Rounds with Gilberto Ramirez.

He should be able to show enough veteran experience to get to the cards in this one, which is scheduled for Ten Rounds, and I do think Angulo will stand in front of Edgar Berlanga to at least give the younger fighter a chance to at least flash some talent in a clear win.

Edgar Berlanga has been more active than Alexis Angulo and that can also help, but he may have to wait a little longer before he can get back to winning fights the early way.

MY PICKS: Richard Riakporhe to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Zak Chelli to Win @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Willy Hutchinson to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Daniel Dubois to Win Between 1-3 @ 2.40 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jaime Munguia to Win Between 4-6 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Oscar Jurado to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Edgar Berlanga to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.50 Bet365 (2 Units)

Boxing 2022 Update: 20-33, + 15.80 Units (95 Units Staked, + 16.63% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 11th)

A late retirement in the final match in Stuttgart put a dampener on the day for the Tennis Picks and it would have helped considering the results that had come in.

The Andy Murray win over Stefanos Tsitsipas was impressive in that tournament and he sets up a big Semi Final against Nick Kyrgios, while the grass court season feels firmly underway as we are days away from the really big events starting before Wimbledon gets going.

We are down to the business end of the events in Hertogenbosch, Nottingham and Stuttgart before that and I am looking for a strong close to the tournaments that have been played this week.

Oscar Otte-Matteo Berrettini over 23.5 games: The first Semi Final in Stuttgart looks like it could be a serve-dominated outing and I am a little surprised that the layers are offering a total games line at the number they have.

My feeling was the line would be at least a game higher than where it stands right now and I would not have been massively surprised if it was set two games higher, but I think these two have the serving capability of covering this line even if one of the two were to win this match in straight sets.

Oscar Otte didn't have to pick up his racquet in the Quarter Final when given a walkover by Benjamin Bonzi, while Matteo Berrettini needed three sets for a second match in a row as he got the better of his compatriot Lorenzo Sonego. It does mean the top Seed here has spent more time of the court than Oscar Otte even though both have played two matches in the draw, but you can understand why Matteo Berrettini has been set as the favourite having played so well on the grass courts in 2021 and also looking like a much more effective return player in the two matches played in Stuttgart.

While the numbers don't bounce off the page, Matteo Berrettini did create at least six break points in both wins this week and he has broken serve at least twice. He has done that despite winning 33% of return points played, but shows a player who has been able to focus on the games he has needed to in order to make the break.

It is far more impressive than Oscar Otte's return numbers having broken in 4% of return games played compared with Berrettini's 18% mark, while the home hope has only won 24% of points against the serve.

The pressure will be on Oscar Otte to make sure he serves well and he has won 77% of his service points played in his two wins this week, while has only been broken once. That serve can be highly effective when Otte gets into a roll and I think he can force at least one tie-breaker which can only a long way to clearing this total.

Matteo Berrettini is still finding his way after a long absence from the Tour and has won 68% of service points played which has led to 92% of service games being held. The Italian has to feel he can contain Oscar Otte and have a go on the return games, but it feels like a match that will be dominated by two big servers and it may lead to a long match in terms of games rather than time spent on the court.

In their two previous matches, Matteo Berrettini has found a way to get into the Oscar Otte service games, but both of those were in Grand Slam tournaments and he still needed four sets to get past this opponent on both occasions. He has had a significant edge on the serve over this opponent in the head to head so I do favour Berrettini to come through, but it may be after two close sets are concluded.

Tim Van Rijthoven-Felix Auger-Aliassime over 22.5 games: Having a career best World Ranking of Number 175 would be pretty successful in most fields, but in tennis it means a player has not really been able to push on in their career as they would have liked.

At 25 years old, Tim Van Rijthoven may have felt his career was stagnating, but he did reach that career high World Ranking a couple of months ago.

And this week he is having the very best time in a home ATP event that will provide him with the Ranking points to push his personal Ranking up to Number 153 having reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch. He has been serving lights out on the grass courts and I do think it is a part of his game that will give him a chance to push Felix Auger-Aliassime on this surface.

The Canadian is having another solid week on the Tour and I think reaching the ATP Finals in Turin has to be a real aim for Felix Auger-Aliassime who is finding more consistency in his level in each week. His serve has been a big weapon for him in his two wins in this tournament, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has struggled for an effective return and that is where Tim Van Rijthoven should have a chance of being competitive.

His own return has not been the most effective, but Tim Van Rijthoven has to be confident with the kind of serves has has been delivering.

It certainly suggests the two players can roll through service games and combine to cover this total games line, which is another that could have been set at least one game higher than where the line is.

Tie-breakers could be needed to separate the two players with both winning 74% of service points played this week which has led to 95% of service games behind held. Neither of these players have been in great form on the return, and Tim Van Rijthoven and Felix Auger-Aliassime have only given up thirteen break points combined.

Of course it will depend on how well they can deal with those pressurised moments and it can see the match quickly running away from one of these players. However, the two have combined for just thirteen break points so far this week with their largely limited return performances and I will look for this Semi Final in Hertogenbosch to have enough games to cover this total set.

MY PICKS: Oscar Otte-Matteo Berrettini Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tim Van Rijthoven-Felix Auger-Aliassime Over 22.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tereza Martincova @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alison Riske - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-15, - 2.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 3.52% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2021 (June 11th)

One Semi Final was relatively straight-forward, but the second Semi Final on the WTA Tour produced a classic between Barbora Krejcikova and Maria Sakkari with the former edging through deep in the third set and third hour of the match.

She is going to need all of Friday to recover before the Final, but Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova looked fatigued emotionally and physically in her own Semi Final win and it may come down to which of the two players can find the extra strength to produce their best tennis on the day.

The Men have a lot to live up to on Friday when their own two Semi Finals are scheduled, but both look fascinating on paper and I expect to see plenty of positive Tennis on the day. The two favourites both look like they will have enough to secure passage to Sunday's Final, but it has been an up and down tournament and one or two more twists and turns would not be a massive surprise.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 sets v Alexander Zverev: Two of the young stars on the ATP Tour are meeting in a Semi Final at the French Open on Friday and I think both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev have to see this as a very good chance to reach the Final. They are in the bottom half of the draw opposing Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic so the winner is likely to go into the Final as the underdog, but it is a chance to make a statement by reaching the Final and then trying to knock off one of the Big Three to announce themselves fully to the watching world.

First off they have to make sure they are not thinking too far ahead and that means focusing on what should be a really good Semi Final. The two players have had a very good clay court season going into the French Open with both having won a Masters title on the surface, while both Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas have to be very, very happy with the kind of level they have shown throughout the French Open.

Winning Slams is very difficult on the Men's side of the Tour with the best of five format a whole different challenge to what players deal with on a week by week basis. Getting through the early Rounds with the little time spent on court is key for players and both Zverev and Tsitsipas have managed to do that at the French Open which means they have plenty in the tank to give their all in this Semi Final and the Final.

Alexander Zverev has put together the stronger numbers in the French Open, but you can't ignore the fact that he has yet to beat anyone Ranked above Number 46 in the tournament. Contrast that to Stefanos Tsitsipas who has wins over two top 20 Ranked players without dropping a set and whose own numbers are plenty eye-catching too.

It potentially makes the Greek player a little more battle hardened for this kind of challenge and I do think his overall clay performances have been about as good as anyone on the Tour so far in 2021. Even in Paris, Stefanos Tsitsipas is playing at a consistently strong level and that makes him dangerous with the confidence that would have been picked up by beating Daniil Medvedev in the manner he did, a player that has given Tsitsipas fits in the past.

This one has a different feel for Stefanos Tsitsipas- while he had a poor head to head with Medvedev, he has won five of the seven previous matches against Alexander Zverev. This is the first match at Grand Slam level, which is different than the usual Tour matches, and Zverev will know he snapped a five match losing run to Tsitsipas when beating him in Acapulco earlier in 2021, but I do think this is a surface on which the Greek player is most comfortable.

In their previous matches Stefanos Tsitsipas has been able to get more out of his serve and I do think that is going to be a pivotal weapon for him in this Semi Final. If he can serve well again, I think it will build pressure on the Alexander Zverev serve which can show more vulnerability than we have seen in this tournament so far.

Their sole meeting on clay ended in a three set win for Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid, but conditions are much slower in Paris than in the Spanish capital and I think that helps Tsitsipas more than Alexander Zverev.

I can't ignore how well Alexander Zverev has played in the last two Rounds, but I think the draw has opened up for him and he will have to lift his level considerably to beat someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas in the form the Greek player has displayed. The return game has looked in fine shape which makes the German dangerous and he has the experience of having won a Grand Slam Semi Final before after doing that at the US Open last September, but the timing looks to be right for Stefanos Tsitsipas here.

This will be far from an easy match for either though and it is all about who settles himself down the quickest and just gets his teeth into the match. I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas' last two wins will stand him in good stead in the tight moments and he can find his way past Alexander Zverev in three or four sets.

Rafael Nadal - 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: There were a few headlines written about the Novak Djokovic reaction to winning his match with Matteo Berrettini in the Quarter Final on Wednesday evening, but I think it had as much to do with getting the job done in the fourth set as anything else. The World Number 1 must have been a little wary that he was going to be dragged into a battle that may have lasted enough hour on the court, but Novak Djokovic will have been well aware how detrimental that would have been to his chances of beating Rafael Nadal for the second time at the French Open.

Even after completing the win over Berrettini in just shy of three and a half hours, Novak Djokovic will know more needs to come from him if he is going to upset Rafael Nadal.

The Spaniard has been a dominant player at Roland Garros and the conditions in Paris over the last two weeks couldn't have been picked any better for Rafael Nadal. They are much better tha last Autumn when Nadal won the title here and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman snapped a run of 36 consecutive sets that Rafael Nadal has won at this tournament.

It was a tough Quarter Final for Rafael Nadal for around an hour and a half, but like so many players before him, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman was unable to maintain the level he needed and Nadal picked up his own aggression and performance to run through the last eight games.

Novak Djokovic did push Rafael Nadal in a three set loss in Rome last month, but he was blown out by the Spaniard in the French Open Final last October when many thought the conditions may have favoured the Number 1 player in the world. Instead it was Nadal who dominated and his performances against Novak Djokovic at the French Open makes it hard to believe there is going to be an upset here.

Both players have served well in the tournament and better than what they have shown on the clay courts before the French Open begun, but the feeling is that Novak Djokovic will find it a touch more difficult to keep the level he has set for the tournament.

Their clay court meetings at the Masters level has shown that Novak Djokovic can certainly challenge Rafael Nadal on the surface, but those are over best of three set formats and it has been a different story in Paris. In the French Open, Rafael Nadal wins around 3% more points behind serve and 4% more points on the return and while those margins don't sound a lot, they have resulted in 77% of service games being held compared with 74% at Masters level, while also resulting in breaks of serve in 35% of return games rather than 31%.

It is the main reason Rafael Nadal has an 11-6 lead over Novak Djokovic in clay court matches in the Masters, but 7-1 in the French Open. Novak Djokovic has won just seven sets in the previous eight matches against Rafael Nadal in Paris and that includes all three in his sole victory against him here and I do think the Spaniard is playing at a level which makes it hard to imagine him needing more than four sets to win this one too.

I don't think it will be close to as easy as Rafael Nadal made the Final against Novak Djokovic last year, but I do think the 'King of Clay' will come through in a tough Semi Final and go into the Final as the favourite on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rafael Nadal - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 49-41, + 3.80 Units (180 Units Staked, + 2.11% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 11th)

There isn't much I can say about Rafael Nadal that hasn't already been said before- any player that wins twelve Grand Slams in one tournament has to be given the utmost respect.

It is amazing to think that Pete Sampras reaching fourteen total Slams was such a huge achievement that we have seen the likes of Roger Federer, Nadal and Novak Djokovic now take that number to a new level. Who would argue against Nadal from matching Sampras' total at the French Open alone?

You can only say it has been a remarkable time in men's tennis as we watch three of the absolute greatest players of all time compete and now we head into the grass court season when all three will believe they can win the next Grand Slam of 2019.

Wimbledon comes around pretty sharpish following the conclusion of the French Open and the grass court season has already begun. I did not make any selections on Monday because I had seen the weather and was not expecting a lot of tennis to be played in Stuttgart, Hertogenbosch or Nottingham.

This will I will mainly be avoiding the WTA Nottingham event because it feels like one that is going to be played on a different surface than the outdoors grass we would have expected. Rain is hammering the UK through the week and we don't need much to see grass court matches interrupted and that looks to be the case for all of the ladies playing in that event.

The other two venues look to be in a position that they will enjoy better conditions for the majority of the week and on Tuesday my first grass court selections in 2019 will come from those events.

I won't be able to write up any analysis for those Picks on Tuesday, and there are a lot of Picks to open this week with a full First Round of matches scheduled at these events. Hopefully we can get this week off to a positive beginning and I will then update the season totals on Wednesday from the French Open after securing a couple of winners in the women's and men's Finals over the weekend.


MY PICKS: Aleksandra Krunic @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannick Sinner @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mikhail Kukushkin - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Kudla - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 11th)

The Tennis Tour is not one that waits around too long before the next tournaments are ready to go and this week we have the change in surface.

Congratulations have to be given to both Simona Halep and Rafael Nadal for winning the French Open titles this past weekend, but the majority of the Tour will have turned their attention to the grass courts and the move from the clay courts.

The initial move can be difficult for some players who simply don't enjoying playing on the green stuff as some of the other surfaces, but it is all preparation for the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon which begins in less than a month from now.

For Tennis fans it is also a big week as Roger Federer returns to the court having skipped the clay court season to give him the best chance to produce the tennis needed to win Wimbledon and/or the US Open. You can't blame Federer for the decisions he takes considering he won in SW19 last season and he may be the favourite to add to the number of Grand Slam titles he owns as he bids to keep Rafael Nadal from taking over with the most Grand Slam wins in the men's game.

Federer will be back on the courts in Stuttgart later this week and that is one of four events being played. Hertogenbosch will offer a men's and women's event while Nottingham hosts another WTA event in a busy week on the Tour during the relatively short grass court swing.


The French Open proved to be a difficult tournament for the Tennis Picks and has dented the season totals, but I am looking to get this week going with a positive beginning. The change in surface is something to keep in mind with some players simply not comfortable on the grass, while others will be grateful to get off the clay and onto a more productive surface for themselves.

I have got the break down from the four ATP matches I am selecting and adding three WTA Picks to the 'MY PICKS' section below.


Yuichi Sugita - 2.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: The clay court season could not have ended quick enough for Yuichi Sugita who simply has not performed consistently on that surface throughout his career. The move to the grass courts should be something he is very comfortable with and I expect Sugita to get the better of Nikoloz Basilashvili when they play in Hertogenbosch.

Over the last couple of years Sugita has shown some real improvement on the grass courts with decent numbers behind his serve and on his return which should give him the edge in a match like this one.

In each of the last two seasons Sugita has had a combined hold/break percentage of 107% and that is significantly better than Basilashvili which means I favour the Seeded player to come through this First Round match.

In 2016 Basilashvili 87% combined hold/break percentage and in 2017 he improved that slightly to 91% but that is still some way short of the Sugita numbers. With those numbers it won't be a big surprise that Basilashvili is 1-6 on the grass courts compared with Sugita who is 17-7 and I am looking for Sugita to come out more comfortable on this surface.

You can't always tell how someone will react to a first match on a new surface which is something to consider when making your plays on Monday in the first of the grass court matches. However I do think Sugita is the better player on the surface and I think he would have been looking forward to the move away from the clay courts more than Basilashvili and I expect Sugita is going to work his way to a win and a cover of the number in this match in Hertogenbosch.


Aljaz Bedene-Marius Copil over 23.5 games: This is a very interesting match up on the grass courts with both Aljaz Bedene and Marius Copil very capable of producing some of their best tennis on the grass courts.

I did favour Copil to win but the poor head to head with Bedene and the very similar numbers does put a dampener on backing the underdog in this one.

What looks to be a little more certain is that both Bedene and Copil should be very strong behind the serve and it would not surprise me if we get to see a number of holds of serve which could mean at least a couple of tie-breakers are needed to separate the two players.

The three previous matches between these players have all come on the clay courts and the last one in Budapest a couple of months ago was a close run thing, but mentally it should mean Bedene is in a good place. Bedene had a combined hold/break percentage of 101% on the grass courts last season and that is narrowly below Copil's 105% although last year was considerably better for Bedene than in 2016.

What has stayed steady for Bedene is the strong hold percentage and he is not exactly facing a great returning opponent on the grass. On the other hand Copil's hold percentage has been even stronger and he should be able to rattle through some games very quickly which suggests this will be a tight match even if there is a winner in straight sets.

The total games are slightly high, but there is every chance these two players need a deciding set to determine the winner and I think backing at least twenty-four games to be played looks the call.


Florian Mayer - 2.5 games v Yannick Maden: 2018 has not been a good year for Florian Mayer and I do wonder if the veteran is finally on an irreversible slide in his career. The grass courts may give Mayer a chance to at least change the perception of a player who has lost 14 of 19 matches played in 2018 and this is a surface on which Mayer is very comfortable.

His opponent has been given a Wild Card into the draw in Stuttgart and I expect Mayer is more familiar with Yannick Maden than many tennis fans will be.

Maden has some decent numbers compared with Mayer in 2018 but the majority of his time is spent off the main Tour as he makes a living. His limited time on the grass courts means this is just the fifth match Maden would have played on the surface and he is 2-2 in the previous for matches with none of those coming against opponents inside the top 150 of the World Rankings.

You can't really read too much into such a small sample, but over the years Mayer has produced some of his best results on the grass courts. It was only two years ago Mayer was winning one of the biggest titles of his career in Halle and having a combined hold/break percentage of 103% on the grass in 2017 is respectable enough considering he has been playing at a higher level than Maden.

Last season was some of the better returning Mayer has put together on the grass and the feeling is that he can have some joy against Maden who held at 73% on the grass in 2017 in the four matches played. That is not exactly stellar numbers considering the opponents they came against and I think Florian Mayer can put some wins up with the right draws over the next five weeks.

I will look for the veteran to make his experience count and help him win and cover the number in this First Round match in Stuttgart.


Mischa Zverev - 1.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: This has all the makings of a really good grass court match between Mischa Zverev and Mikhail Youzhny but I have to favour the home player to have the edge.

You can't take nothing away from Youzhny who is still a very effective grass court player and especially not when he has put a couple of wins on the Qualifiers under his belt ahead of this First Round match. The Russian was surprisingly beaten in the First Round in the Surbiton Challenger last week, but Youzhny's numbers on the grass courts in recent seasons suggest he hasn't lost a major step on the surface when playing against opponents outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings.

However it has to be said that he is facing an opponent whose games is tailor made for the grass courts and Zverev has shown his comfort on the surface with some very strong numbers over the last couple of years.

Even the loss last week was a close one for Youzhny but now he faces an opponent in Zverev who will look to put some pressure on him by getting to the net and forcing the Russian to hit his passing shots. The old school pressure Zverev brings can disrupt any opponent when at his best and last year he found his best tennis on the grass courts with an 110% hold/break percentage.

Youzhny's numbers are far from sloppy in each of the last three seasons on the grass, but Zverev is capable of using the home support and scoreboard pressure behind his own serve to edge out his opponent. I do like Youzhny on the grass courts, but he has slipped a little more than Zverev and I expect the latter to move into the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Yuichi Sugita - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene-Marius Copil Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Florian Mayer - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jana Fett @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: - 4.04 Units (825 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 15 Picks 2017- Men's Final (June 11th)

Men's Final- Stan Wawrinka vs Rafael Nadal

This is arguably the Final most would have hoped for at the beginning of the French Open as Stan Wawrinka looks for a fourth Grand Slam title which amazingly would see him surpass Andy Murray's number.

Wawrinka has never lost a Grand Slam Final in his previous three occasions being in the Final, but he has to take on Rafael Nadal who is looking for a simply ridiculous TENTH title at the French Open. The Spaniard has won all nine previous Roland Garros Finals and this looks an interesting match between the stand out players of the last fortnight.

Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: Once Stan Wawrinka blew the third set of his Semi Final against Andy Murray, I was not convinced he would have the fortitude to bounce back and win that match. To my surprise Wawrinka took a tight tie-breaker in the fourth set before running away with the fifth, although I have questions as to how much he invested both physically and mentally into the Semi Final.

You would have to be foolish to completely ignore it, although I can't have Wawrinka using fatigue as a complete excuse considering the straight sets wins he has had all week. Against most players the Semi Final success wouldn't really be a big factor for me considering how strong Wawrinka is, but the fact he is playing Rafael Nadal in what looks to be peak form does make that a bigger factor than normal.

Wawrinka has chances in this one with the way he has been returning, and he has beaten Nadal on the clay courts before. However there are a lot of 'ifs' around the Wawrinka game which makes it tough to really believe he can cause what would be a big upset in my mind.

If Wawrinka serves at his best and if he is able to recover from Friday's Semi Final and if Wawrinka is able to penetrate the Nadal defences with winner after winner, the Swiss star can win this match. However that feels like a lot of things needing to go right and also Nadal to slip off a level of complete and utter dominance that he has produced for basically the entire clay court season.

Forget about sets, Nadal is barely losing games at the moment and it may be a demoralising experience for Wawrinka if he is not able to get in front early on. The first set feels more important than usual for Wawrinka who might just lose some heart if Nadal is able to take his best shots, while the physical pain may also be revealed at that point.

Nadal has been returning so well and putting constant pressure on his opponents which has seen them crack. He looks focused and I think Wawrinka's run of successes at the Grand Slam Final level will come to an end here.

After a tight first set, I can see Nadal beginning to wear down Wawrinka who tries to hit the ball harder and harder to keep up with what the Spaniard is producing. It has been over twelve months since Nadal and Wawrinka last met, but both will be familiar with what the other is going to do against them.

I will be expecting Nadal to try and blunt Wawrinka early before pulling away with a 7-5, 6-3, 6-3 kind of win.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

World Cup Qualifier Picks 2017 (June 9-11)

The final game of the 2016/17 season for many football players in Europe will be played between Friday and Sunday this week as one last round of World Cup Qualifiers are scheduled.

For most it will then mean at least two months before any competitive football is played and a chance to go on their holidays before reporting back to their clubs in July.

I will have a number of picks from the Qualifiers which are to be played over the next three days which you can read below.


Andorra v Hungary Pick: When you see a match like this on the coupon most will immediately be wondering by how many goals will Hungary be able to beat Andorra. That is a reasonable way to begin when you think Andorra had lost 35 home Qualifiers in a row before the goalless draw with the Faroe Islands, but it may also be overestimating this current Hungary squad.

There is no doubt that Andorra do struggle to just match the better teams they face, but they have only suffered narrow losses to Latvia (0-1) and Switzerland (1-2) at home which suggests they can make life difficult for Hungary.

Add in the fact that Hungary have already failed to win in the Faroe Islands in this Group and had narrow wins against the likes of the Faroe Islands and Finland in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers as well as one over Latvia in this Group. Hungary haven't won an away Qualifier by more than two goals in any of their last 13 away Qualifiers since beating Andorra 0-5 here.

That might encourage some to back Hungary for a big win here, but they have not been in good form since being beaten in the Euro 2016 Finals and I think Hungary will be content with any kind of win. Andorra's improvement means backing Hungary to win by either a one goal or two goal margin here at odds against can be taken on.


Gibraltar v Cyprus Pick: There won't be many times that Cyprus are such a big favourite to win an away Qualifier, but you can understand where the oddsmakers are coming from this Friday.

They simply don't want to give a lot away with Gibraltar who have been losing plenty of games at this level and who have also conceded goals for fun at home. While Cyprus have lost their 2 away World Cup Qualifiers, this is a national team who have won at Bosnia-Herzegovina, Andorra and Israel during the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group.

Gibraltar have lost heavily to the likes of Georgia (0-3) and Latvia (0-5) at home, while they were also beaten by a couple of goals when hosting Estonia. The Faroe Islands have also won by a three goal margin here and so I am going to back Cyprus to cover the Asian Handicap.

The only Qualifier Gibraltar have lost by less than three goals was the 3-1 defeat in Cyprus, but I can see Cyprus at least matching that margin again. With Gibraltar likely to be more attack minded at home, I can see Cyprus winning by a slightly larger margin this time and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Latvia v Portugal Pick: They might not always have been known for the clinical finishing in the final third, but Portugal have been hammering home the goals since their 2-0 loss in Switzerland in this World Cup Qualifying Group. Portugal have now scored 19 goals and conceded just 1 in their 4 World Cup Qualifier wins and that is a big reason they are favoured to win in Latvia by a comfortable margin.

That is an easy decision for the oddsmakers when you think Latvia have lost 5 straight home Qualifiers including both in this Group. However they have rarely been completely outclassed in front of their own fans and that factors into my pick for this fixture.

Latvia have only been beaten by more than three goals at home in 1 of their last 39 home Qualifiers and even that was in a game where they had a man sent off after just 11 minutes. On the other hand, Portugal's 0-6 win over Faroe Islands in this Group is the only 1 in 14 away Qualifiers that they have won by more than a two goal margin.

Now I have to respect the way Portugal have been playing and scoring goals in this Group and also the way Latvia have struggled. That still doesn't mean I am expecting Portugal to win this one by four or more and I think you can look to Dutch them winning by two or three goal margins to provide an odds against return.

Maybe Cristiano Ronaldo brings his Champions League form into this one and helps blow away Latvia, but I think the home team can remain competitive enough to avoid a real hammering.


Sweden v France Pick: I was a little surprised to see France at odds on to win this World Cup Qualifier, but that just indicates where Sweden are during their transition from the Zlatan Ibrahimovic era.

Sweden have played well in recent games and they have played well during the World Cup Qualifier Group which makes them a danger to France. The side have been unbeaten in 5 home Qualifiers, but they haven't played too many teams with the quality the French will bring to Stockholm.

The respect the layers have given to France may have come from the fact they have won 0-1 in the Netherlands but you can't ignore the fact they have won 3 of their last 7 away Qualifiers. They also don't have to push for the win here as they will remain firmly in control of the Group as long as France don't lose this game.

France do have a good record in Sweden over the years with 3 wins from their last 6 visits here, but I think the home side can battle for a result here. I would be surprised if Sweden were able to beat a team with the kind of talent France have, especially when France know the importance of avoiding a loss.

A small interest is warranted on this Qualifier finishing in a draw which may just be a result that both Sweden and France will ultimately be happy with and I will back that to happen.


Azerbaijan v Northern Ireland Pick: There is much on the line for both Azerbaijan and Northern Ireland on Saturday in the last World Cup Qualifier until September with the winning team likely to feel they can do enough to finish behind Germany in the Group.

The onus is on Azerbaijan more than Northern Ireland as they have already lost in Northern Ireland earlier in the Group and trail by 3 points. For Northern Ireland even a point here would be considered a positive as they look to secure a Play Off spot in the section.

We know that is likely the way Michael O'Neill will approach the fixture hoping that Northern Ireland can steal the points. He will make them tough to beat and try to frustrate the home team into mistakes, and Northern Ireland did win 3 of their 5 away Qualifiers in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group.

I can understand why Northern Ireland have been set as the favourite with that in mind, especially as Azerbaijan can be vulnerable at home. However Azerbaijan have also shown some toughness at times with decent results against nations like Russia and Croatia, while they have also beaten Norway here in the Group.

I think this match is going to be close, but I think Northern Ireland are good enough to avoid defeat. That could set them up nicely for the double header with San Marino and Czech Republic in September, but I think Northern Ireland will have to settle for a positive point here.

A small interest in the draw is where my money will be going in this one this weekend.


Scotland v England Pick: If you believe the bookmakers rarely get things wrong, you would probably understand why England are the favourites to win this match in Scotland. However they look plenty short to me despite the positive results in the Group and I think Scotland are going to give England plenty to think about.

Of course this is not a vintage Scotland squad with many of their players no longer competing for places at the very top clubs in the Premier League like we have seen over the last twenty years. The players at Celtic play for a big club, but not against competition of the level that England can send to the field.

In saying that, this is as close to a 'English style derby' you can get in international football and we have seen 'lesser' teams able to match up and compete with those teams that should be much stronger on paper. Scotland should most certainly be inspired from the fans in Hampden Park who would love nothing more than to beat England.

Scotland have played well in Qualifiers in front of their own fans and only Germany have recorded a win here, after an absolute battle, over the last 8 Qualifiers in Scotland. They have shown heart to earn a draw with a decent nation like Poland too and Scotland may be the first team to score against England in the Group.

England had won 6 away Qualifiers in a row before the goalless draw with Slovenia and they have shown defensive toughness in those games. They have kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 7 away Qualifiers and so the layers have placed some big prices for goals in this one.

I think the layers may have got that wrong though with Scotland and England recent games ending up being high-scoring ones. Scotland can certainly trouble England here, while the latter will believe their quality can tell at the end.

I did consider backing England to win by a couple of goals at least, but Scotland have raised their game at home against the better nations they have faced and I will look for at least three goals to be shared out.


Slovenia v Malta Pick: No one is going to be rushing out to back Malta to win this one considering their generally poor run of results, especially when playing away from home.

Slovenia winning the three points won't surprise anyone, but I do think Malta have shown they can be very competitive at that has meant wide losses have not been as frequent as you may believe.

Only 3 of their last 17 away Qualifiers have seen Malta lose by three or more goals. In this World Cup Qualifying Group, Malta have lost 2-0 in England and Lithuania, while in the last European Championship Qualifying Group Malta were beaten 2-0 in Croatia and 1-0 in Italy.

This Slovenia team are also not one who are going to blow opponents away and so I think it may pay out to back the home team to win by either a one or two goal margin. 6 of their last 8 home Qualifier wins have come by that margin and Malta might be able to make life difficult enough as they have for those nations I have mentioned.

It would be a big upset if Slovenia were not able to turn this Qualifier into three points and I will look to Dutch the two margins mentioned which pays out at odds against.


Poland v Romania Pick: This is a big match for Romania to try and peg back Poland who look to be running away with the Group and I am not sure they are going to be able to do that. Poland have been scoring goals for fun at home and they have become a really dangerous team to visit with 6 wins from their last 7 home Qualifiers.

That includes wins over the likes of Germany and Denmark and the Romania run of 7 away Qualifiers is under threat.

When you look at the teams Romania have played in that time, they don't really match up to what Poland are capable of doing. Greece, Finland, Northern Ireland, Hungary, Faroe Islands, Armenia and Kazakhstan make up that unbeaten run for Romania, but Poland would be considered stronger than all of those and I expect them to show that this weekend.

Romania have also failed to score in their last 3 World Cup Qualifiers and I do believe Poland are going to be capable of not only winning, but winning by more than the one goal margin to cover this Asian Handicap.


Finland v Ukraine Pick: In a Group that contains four nations who all will truly believe they are good enough to Qualify for the World Cup Finals, the games against the bottom two nations cannot afford to be overlooked.

That is what Ukraine have to remind themselves as dropped points here in Finland would really ramp up the pressure in chasing down the nations above them.

Croatia have shown the way with a victory here, although Ukraine have not had the best away Qualifiers in recent seasons. They did beat the two bottom teams in their Euro 2016 Qualifying Group, but Ukraine are a hard working team who might not necessarily have the quality to break down a resilient team if they are not able to do the same as Croatia and break down the door early.

Finland have also simply not been that strong at home and only a late goal against Northern Ireland prevented them losing all 3 home games in the last set of Qualifiers against nations who made it to France for the Euro 2016 Finals. I think they will make life tough for Ukraine in this one, but ultimately I do think Ukraine will find a way to secure an important three points for themselves to just keep track on the top two in this Group.

The 0-1 friendly loss to Malta is a concern, but that was only a friendly and I expect Ukraine to do enough to secure the win on Sunday.


Republic of Ireland v Austria Pick: This is a really important game for the Republic of Ireland and Austria as both bid to end a long wait for an appearance in the World Cup Finals. The Republic of Ireland haven’t played in a World Cup Finals since the infamous 2002 tournament when current Assistant Manager Roy Keane walked out on the squad days before the Finals would begin.

For Austria the wait has been four years longer, but they have underachieved in this Group so far and will need to really pick up their play in the second half of the section. A 4 point gap at this point is far from insurmountable, but Austria have yet to beat any of the three nations ahead of them in the Group and have already lost a home game to Ireland.

There is no doubt that makes this a more important game for Austria and also allows Martin O’Neill to set up his home team to be hard to beat. A draw will certainly look a good result in relation to a potential Play Off spot, but Ireland will be expected to also try and win this game to give themselves a chance of an automatic place in the World Cup Finals next summer.

It can be argued that a win for the Republic of Ireland would make them favourites to win the Group, but this is going to be a tough game.

Austria are far better than they have shown in the Group so far, and they are a team that can scored goals having managed two in each game other than the 0-1 loss to Ireland.

Generally the Republic of Ireland don’t give much away as is highlighted by 5 consecutive clean sheets in home Qualifiers. However this Austria team have shown they can create enough chances to be a danger and the layers could have underestimated the chance of seeing at least three goals in this one.

Austria have scored at least twice in 7 of their last 8 away Qualifiers and will be looking to attack. That may leave spaces for Ireland to expose too on the counter attack and a rare high-scoring game could be on the cards. The layers don’t think so and have left a big price out there, but I can see these teams combining for a better spectacle than anticipated and will back goals as Austria’s need to win opens up more spaces than this fixture may have done if played earlier in the Group. 


Iceland v Croatia Pick: My immediate reaction to the prices of this game was that Croatia looked a vulnerable favourite to win this World Cup Qualifier in Iceland. While Croatia have won both away Qualifiers during this Qualifying Group, those have come at the two weakest nations in the section and Iceland are definitely not one of those these days.

There has been a slight drift in the Croatia price over the last week and I do have to say that I have been keen to back Iceland to avoid defeat. That is still a decent price when you put together how these teams tend to play and the fact that Croatia would likely accept a draw now to remain 3 points clear of Iceland in 2nd place.

Croatia might be a very good team, but they have not travelled well in their recent away Qualifiers. The 3 straight away Qualifiers have been won against Malta, Kosovo and Finland and none of those teams have been playing at the same level as Iceland.

In the last three Qualifying Groups, Croatia have failed to win in Azerbaijan, Italy, Norway, Serbia, Scotland and Iceland.

Compare that with Iceland who hold home wins over the Netherlands, Turkey (twice) and Czech Republic during a 10 game home Qualifier unbeaten run and I think you can understand why I like the home team here.

My one concern is that Iceland push for a winner to the point of leaving themselves open to the counter from Croatia who are certainly good enough to punish overexposed teams. However I think Iceland may even earn the upset here to really open up the Group and backing them to avoid defeat at a decent price is my call.


Israel v Albania Pick: Immediately I will say that this is a pick where only a small interest should be had because of some of the uncertainty around both teams.

Neither Israel nor Albania will be competing for a place at the World Cup Finals barring a shocking and unforeseen collapse from Spain or Italy. However finishing 3rd in the Group can be important for future draws and there should be motivation at play here.

Out of the two teams, Israel have at least shown more positive form of late compared with Albania who have lost 5 matches in a row. I wouldn’t read too much into the 0-3 loss to Israel as Albania were reduced to ten men at 0-0, but confidence does look sapped in the Albania squad having lost a friendly game in Luxembourg earlier this month.

In saying that, Israel have been a really inconsistent performer in home Qualifiers in recent years and they are just as likely to win this game by two or three goals as lose by the same margin. That has reduced my confidence in them which is reflected by the minimum unit being placed on them to win this Qualifier.

However Israel have shown they can beat teams like this when beating Bosnia-Herzegovina during the Euro 2016 Qualifiers. They just haven’t done it enough for full belief they will produce on Sunday although the odds against quote is worth backing.

Albania have played well in recent away Qualifiers before the loss in Italy, but losing some confidence and already being out of the running suggests they could have a really poor remaining Qualifying campaign.


Serbia v Wales Pick: The 6-1 defeat in Belgrade back in September 2012 was supposed to be the end of the Chris Coleman era as manager of Wales. He has rebuilt his reputation since then and Coleman’s peak may have been taking Wales to the Euro 2016 Semi Final last summer.

Coleman won’t want to think like that and he remained Wales manager in a bid to guide them to their first World Cup appearance since 1958, but this has been a troubling Group. They may not have lost any games, but 4 consecutive draws has allowed the Republic of Ireland and Serbia to move 4 points clear in the section.

A draw would ordinarily be a decent enough result from this Qualifier, but I think Wales have to push for more and we could see yet another entertaining game in Serbia. The two previous Qualifiers here have ended with at least four goals shared out in each as Serbia have coupled attacking intent with poor defensive shape in a transition period.

Wales can certainly attack those vulnerabilities as they are likely to have the counter attacking options, although not through Gareth Bale, to make an impact on this fixture. You have to anticipate that Serbia will be progressive and attacking as they are playing in front of what is a passionate home crowd and that should suit Wales.

On the other hand, I think the Wales defensive shape which has been lauded over the last couple of years has not looked as strong in this Qualifying Group. That should mean an opportunity for Serbia to create chances too and it does feel like a big price to see at least three goals shared out in another fixture in this Group.

MY PICKS: Hungary to Win by One or Two Goals @ 2.02 Sporting Bet (2 Units) [Dutch Win by One Goal and Win by Two Goals for this price]
Cyprus - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 @bet365 (2 Units)
Portugal to Win by Two or Three Goals @ 2.08 Bet Fred (2 Units) [Dutch Win by Two Goals and Win by Three Goals for this price]
Sweden-France Draw @ 3.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Azerbaijan-Northern Ireland Draw @ 3.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Scotland-England Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Slovenia to Win by One Goal or Two Goals @ 2.32 Bet Fred (2 Units) [Dutch Win by One Goal and Win by Two Goals for this price]
Poland - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ukraine @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Republic of Ireland-Austria Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.55 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Iceland + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Israel @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Serbia-Wales Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Bet Victor (2 Units)