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Showing posts with label Nottingham. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nottingham. Show all posts

Thursday, 12 March 2026

Premier League Darts Night 6 Picks 2026 (Thursday 12th March)

Another big Ranking event played on television has been retained by Luke Littler and the World Number 1 continues to be the player to beat, while also looking stronger than his main contenders at key times within matches.

Some fans may be getting a little bored of seeing Littler have things his own way, but that has been far from the case in the Premier League, at least through the opening five nights of the tournament.

No one will be worried that Luke Littler is not going to make the top four and return to the Play Offs, but both the World Number 1 and Luke Humphries will be keen to get going.

Nottingham will host Night 6 of the Premier League and you cannot keep waiting for things to happen once you get to the halfway stage of the tournament later this month- others will be looking to build on strong starts to keep the pressure on the top two players in the world and that makes the Quarter Final matches very important to just continue to tick points over.

Luke Littler would love to pick up another Nightly win to ease any lingering concerns about his form, and that means there is perhaps more pressure on the other Luke, Humphries, to get moving.


The UK Open was won by Luke Littler and he has been enjoying the horse racing at Cheltenham earlier this week, where he was joined by Luke Humphries.

Both will be looking to remind fans of how focused they are and Littler can put a lot of effort into Night 6 knowing he will not be travelling to Germany for the European Tour 2 event beginning on Friday.

Luke Littler has made it clear that he has not enjoyed playing in Germany, but the other seven Premier League players will be heading over to Goettingen where they will begin their bid for a European Tour title in the Second Round on Saturday.


Josh Rock v Stephen Bunting: You would have to say that Josh Rock has been a little unfortunate through the opening five nights of the Premier League- the debutant has yet to win, but has produced his best form against the stronger players in the tournament and underwhelmed in others.

He has been close to picking up a win having narrowly been beaten in a good match against Luke Littler last week, but it was more of the same when Josh Rock lost the UK Open Semi Final to the same opponent.

Reaching the Semi Final has to give him belief and confidence and Rocky also got the better of Stephen Bunting in that tournament.

Much like last year, Stephen Bunting has struggled for consistency in the Premier League and has been all or nothing again.

Four Quarter Final defeats will have dented the confidence, but the one time he did win, Bunting went on and picked up a Nightly win and that means he has not lost as much touch with the top four as he did twelve months ago.

Both players will sense the importance of this Quarter Final, but Josh Rock has had a strong weekend behind him and that may give him the momentum to finally get a Premier League win on the board.


Jonny Clayton & Michael van Gerwen over 2.5 180s: No one will suggest these two players are hitting the maximums at the same rate as Luke Littler, but both Jonny Clayton and Michael van Gerwen have been hitting plenty in their own right.

Two wins at the UK Open will have just gotten van Gerwen back on track after an illness, even if he was blown away by James Wade in a Sixth Round loss.

He wasn't playing badly, and Michael van Gerwen has made a solid start to the Premier League campaign and certainly could be a little stronger with a few days of recovery this week.

Jonny Clayton was undone by his old mate Gerwyn Price in a tight match at the UK Open, but the Welsh Number 1 has continued to play at a very good level in 2026.

It is Clayton who is leading the Premier League table having picked up a Nightly win and winning each of the five Quarter Final matches played- he knows that it is very important to keep points ticking over in a competitive field and Jonny Clayton may just edge this one.

The layers are finding it hard to separate the two and this has the makings of a match that will need at least ten Legs before separating them- both should have the time to reach three maximums each and that looks the play.


Luke Humphries to win & most 180s v Gian van Veen: Go back twelve months and price up this kind of match and you would likely have Luke Humphries down as a big favourite.

He is the favourite on Thursday, but Humphries is not clear and that is largely down to the fact he keeps finding a way to lose tight matches against Gian van Veen.

There has already been a 6-5 loss in the Premier League and a 7-5 loss in a European Tour match in 2026, and those after Luke Humphries beat van Veen 5-0 at the World Masters and looked to have righted the ship.

A tale of the season has been Humphries playing well and finding ways to lose and that has been the case in the Premier League defeat to Gian van Veen when missing a huge amount of doubles.

Treble hitting has been less of an issue for Luke Humphries and he may score more of those than the Dutchman, but you have to believe he cannot keep missing at key times. The World Number 2 needs a big run here in Nottingham and he looks a big price to win a match with the most maximums in this one, even against an opponent like Gian van Veen who has shown tremendous character to win matches when not always playing at his best.


Luke Littler to win & most 180s v Gerwyn Price: Last year there was a suggestion that Luke Littler did not enjoy playing Gerwyn Price, but he has won all four meetings against the Welshman in 2026.

Some of those have been really close and competitive, but Littler is motivated to put it to all of his rivals and he continues to blitz through a few minutes to take matches away from those who think they might just have got his number.

The scary prospect for his main rivals is that Littler seemed to win the UK Open in second gear and that makes him a big favourite to win every tournament he enters.

His overall performance may not have been near his 'A game', but Littler should be very focused on Night 6 of the Premier League with the decision made to skip European Tour 2 in Germany.

Luke Littler will also be aware that he cannot afford to give anything away to Gerwyn Price, who has been playing at a very good level and who reached the UK Open Semi Final last Sunday.

However, it was another tournament where Price just ran out of steam and he may not have the firepower to stick with the World Number 1 in this Quarter Final.

Gerwyn Price has been hitting plenty of maximums of his own, but a focused Luke Littler can be very tough to stop, assuming he is not thinking about Cheltenham any more.

MY PICKS: Josh Rock @ 1.80 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Jonny Clayton & Michael van Gerwen Over 2.5 180s @ 2.62 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Luke Humphries to Win & Most 180s @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Luke Littler to Win & Most 180s @ 2.10 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Darts 2026: 27-35, - 4.07 Units (61 Units Staked, - 6.67% Yield)

Thursday, 19 June 2025

Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 19th June)

The majority of the selections made this week have followed the numbers- Joao Fonseca was a touch unfortunate, but Emma Navarro struggled for much of the defeat to Paula Badosa and that was reflected in the final score.

Jack Draper's failure to cover is the exception.

He had four Break Point chances in the first set, but failed to convert and was punished by dropping serve to lose that set 6-3... Even after winning the second set 6-2, Draper could not find a way to cover the handicap mark and it was a match where, once again, the dominant Break Point opportunities did not result in a successful outcome.

At least Alexander Zverev came through his First Round match, even if it was a disappointing day overall.


On Thursday the Quarter Final lineup will be completed at the four tournaments being played this week and so there are plenty of matches to get through with the remainder of the Second Round all to be played.

However, it looks like the research can only identify three selections- one from Nottingham, Halle and Queen's- that can be read below.


Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Jaume Munar: Back to back Wimbledon titles have been secured and there are no real concerns about the ability of Carlos Alcaraz when it comes to performing on this surface.

He is also a former Champion at Queen's Club in West London and so there were real reasons to consider withdrawing from the tournament and just using a couple of exhibition events to warm up for Wimbledon.

The main reason was recovering from the emotional and physical success in Paris earlier this month- Carlos Alcaraz defended the French Open title by coming from 2-0 down in sets to defeat Jannik Sinner and there was no doubt how much energy that was needed to do that in the manner it happened.

Eventually the decision was made to play at Queen's again, and Carlos Alcaraz made a comfortable start to the tournament with a routine straight sets win over Adam Walton. The scoreboard suggested a close match, but the World Number 2 was in complete control of the contest and he can build on that.

Carlos Alcaraz faces a compatriot in the Second Round and Jaume Munar is one of those Spanish players that has struggled to have an impact on the grass.

Jaume Munar came through the First Round when Jordan Thompson had to withdraw from the match after a single set was completed, but prior to the event, the World Number 59 had a career record of 3-13 when playing on this surface. Suffice to say it is a time of the season when Jaume Munar is not at his best and it will be tough for him to challenge someone of the confidence and quality of Carlos Alcaraz.

It would be a big challenge even on Munar's favoured clay courts, but on this surface it should be a bigger edge with Carlos Alcaraz, who should feel relatively comfortable in the match up.

He should be able to get into the rallies on the return and that should see Carlos Alcaraz exert his qualities over Jaume Munar- as long as Alcaraz serves as well as he can, he should have enough about him to earn the breaks of serve needed to cover what is a pretty big line for a best of three set match on the grass.


Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: Last year was a disappointment for Andrey Rublev as far as the grass courts were concerned, but he was a very confident winner in the First Round. This is a player who has performed pretty well on the grass courts in the past and that crushing win over Sebastian Ofner will only have given Rublev some belief in what has been an inconsistent season.

He is next up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Halle and the World Number 63 is not someone who has a lot of grass court experience or success to call upon. His First Round win over Pedro Martinez, another Spaniard who prefers not to play on this surface, saw Tomas Martin Etcheverry improve his career record to 4-9 on the grass, but Andrey Rublev had double that number of wins in just the 2023 season alone.

An early loss in Hertogenbosch backs up the issues that Tomas Martin Etcheverry has had on the grass, but there has to be some respect for a player who gets plenty out of his serve.

On a surface like this one, serving well can keep a player in any match being played and Martin Etcheverry will certainly look to see how Andrey Rublev handles his own frustrations if the lower Ranked player is able to keep the service games ticking over.

A loss of focus when things are not going his way have held Andrey Rublev back, but he has shown enough patience on a surface like this one to produce some solid returning numbers. The way he dealt with the Sebastian Ofner serve bodes well for Rublev, especially if he can continue to serve at the level he was showing in the First Round.

When these two met on the hard courts in Canada last summer in the build up to the US Open, Andrey Rublev did display that patience to come through a tough first set before moving clear in the second. He may need something similar in this match in Halle, but Andrey Rublev can eventually make his superior grass court qualities display that on the final scoreboard.


Sonay Kartal + 3.5 games v Katie Boulter: All credit has to be given to Sonay Kartal for the year she has put together, which means coming into this tournament as the World Number 50, her career best World Ranking mark. It also means direct entry into the main draw at Wimbledon, where she reached the Third Round last year and the 23 year old will feel there is more to come.

She will certainly want to get up to the kind of level that Katie Boulter has reached as the two British players prepare to face off in the Second Round in Nottingham.

Losing to Amanda Anisimova at Queen's last week will have been a blow for Sonay Kartal, although the form of the American cannot be dismissed. In the same tournament Katie Boulter was not able to build on taking the opening set against Diana Shnaider, but the World Number 39 looked pretty comfortable in her opening win here in Nottingham.

Both are pretty comfortable on the grass courts, which is no surprise, but it has been mentioned before that Katie Boulter has struggled for big wins on the surface.

That is not the case for Sonay Kartal, who beat the World Number 16 last week and who upset a couple of top 50 Ranked players in her run at Wimbledon last year.

Their sole previous match up on the Tour ended in a three set win for Katie Boulter on the grass courts of Surbiton a couple of years ago, but Sonay Kartal was much lower in the World Rankings on that occasion. There is not so much between them now and Sonay Kartal has the grass court qualities to at least keep this one competitive with the games being given to her.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Sonay Kartal + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 1.04 Units (8 Units Staked, + 13% Yield)

Monday, 6 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 7th)

The grass court season has begun and the Tennis Picks will be focused on those events for the remainder of the month and into early July.

Bigger events are going to be played next week, but there are a number of tournaments scheduled for this week as players look to get some experience under their belt in what is the shortest part of the year on a single surface.

Rain is the biggest threat to the tournaments this week with even a little amount making it a very slippery and dangerous surface on which to play. It does look a wet week at all of the events and that will force players to win two matches in a single day to keep the events on track.


Maxime Cressy-Dominic Stricker over 23.5 games: The courts in Stuttgart are playing pretty quickly in the early Rounds of the grass court season and this is a match that features two players that will be confident in their serve. Maxime Cressy is playing his first match back on the surface since the grass court season in 2021 and it is a dangerous time to face a Qualifier in Dominic Stricker who beat Aslan Karatsev in one of two wins to take his place in the main draw.

Last year the 20 year old Swiss player was given a direct spot in the main draw in Stuttgart and he reached the Quarter Final before losing to a grass court specialist in Sam Querrey. On his way, Dominic Stricker beat Radu Albot and Hubert Hurkacz with the latter win looking particularly impressive when you think the big serving Polish player reached the Wimbledon Semi Final just a few weeks later.

He was well beaten in Halle, but Dominic Stricker will feel pretty happy back on the grass having earned those two wins in the Qualifiers too. He has won 66% of his service points behind serve and that has led to 82% of service games being held on the surface and I do think the lefty will cause problems for Maxime Cressy who has struggled as a return player on the grass courts in his limited time on the surface.

The American has only won 31% of return points played in his nine previous grass court matches and Cressy has only broken serve in 13% of return games played. I expect Dominic Stricker to be able to have plenty of success behind his serve in this one, although the challenge for the Swiss player is trying to pressure the Maxime Cressy serve.

Maxime Cressy has been slightly more effective behind serve than Stricker with 68% of service points won in grass court matches and that has led to holds in 87% of service games played.

Like his opponent in the First Round, Dominic Stricker has had a tough time getting to grips with the return of serve and has only broken in 19% of his return games played in the six grass court matches played in his young career. That number has been significantly boosted by his strong player in the Qualifiers in this tournament, but I do think the server is going to be on top in this one.

Last season, Dominic Stricker played three matches in Stuttgart and the first two sets in each of those went to a tie-breaker. I think he will serve well enough to be competitive, but the same can be said for Maxime Cressy and it may lead to a First Round match that surpasses what is a big total line set for this one.


Ugo Humbert - 2.5 games v Arthur Rinderknech: Two Frenchmen are coming off disappointing showings at their home Grand Slam, but there is a feeling that Ugo Humbert is going to be much happier being back on the grass rather than on the clay courts.

It has been a difficult season for Ugo Humbert who had been as high as Number 25 in the World Rankings twelve months ago, but who has slipped back to Number 48.

That means he will be under pressure in this grass court season considering Ugo Humbert reached the Quarter Final here in Stuttgart before winning a major title in Halle. That means he has plenty of points to defend to avoid another significant drop down the World Rankings, but Humbert has enjoyed playing on the grass courts where is serve and ability to get to the net are very effective.

He is much more experienced than Arthur Rinderknech who is playing in his third ever grass court match, but who is also only a few places behind Humbert in the World Rankings having had a more consistent season.

Last season Arthur Rinderknech went 1-1 in Halle and the numbers are from a very small sample and hard to really judge.

However, I do think Rinderknech has shown his serve can be effective on the hard courts and he should be able to earn plenty of free points on this surface, although the return is not one of any real note. It is the return where Ugo Humbert could be able to exert some scoreboard pressure by putting Arthur Rinderknech under the cosh when it comes to the returning aspect of his tennis and I do think Ugo Humbert can get off to a strong start.

The higher Ranked Frenchman is not exactly known for his own return on the grass courts, but I do think he will find the one break he may need to cover this mark and I will back him to do that in the First Round in Stuttgart.

MY PICKS: Maxime Cressy-Dominic Stricker Over 24.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ugo Humbert - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Emma Raducanu - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Katie Boulter - 0.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.36 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 6th)

The clay court swing has come to a close for a few weeks as the French Open was concluded this past weekend, but the Tour carries on and the grass court season has already begun.

Last week there were a couple of tournaments in the Challenger and ITF level that were played on the grass, but the main build towards Wimbledon will begin this week with tournaments in Stuttgart, Nottingham and s'Hertogenbosch all getting going.

Most of the very top names are not playing, but there are plenty who are getting their preparations for Wimbledon underway before the bigger events in London, Halle and Birmingham next week.


MY PICKS: Oscar Otte - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marcos Giron - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Soon Woo Kwon - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Heather Watson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jodie Burrage + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Thursday, 23 June 2016

Tennis Picks 2016 (June 23rd)

I do have to say that Wednesday was a frustrating day for the picks with two of the three losing picks being in a very strong position to cover but both failing to do that. Mikhail Youzhny had a brain freeze in the third set as he needed one more game to cover, while Steve Johnson was clearly the better player against Vasek Pospisil but couldn't earn the break to win a set and instead did it in two tie-breakers.

Frustrating to say the least when you think how close both were, but it seems to be the way things have gone for me since the French Open as we have moved onto the grass courts. Next week is Wimbledon so I am hoping for a turn in fortunes, but hopefully that begins with the rest of the events in Eastbourne and Nottingham where they are hoping to get through the remaining matches and beat the poor weather that has affected all of Western Europe in what is supposed to be the summer months.

The organisers at Wimbledon will be hoping the same, but first let's get through the Quarter Final matches that have been scheduled for Eastbourne and Nottingham.


Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: Both Marcos Baghdatis and Pablo Cuevas needed three sets to come through their Third Round match, but it was the latter who had to put in a much bigger physical exertion in his win. All three sets that Cuevas played against Dan Evans were tight and would have needed some winning, while Marcos Baghdatis had to come from a set down to beat Sam Querrey but in a match that wouldn't have featured too many gruelling rallies.

Baghdatis continues to show his form on the grass courts, although he had to pull out of his Semi Final here last year with yet another injury issue. He does look healthy this time and Baghdatis will believe his experience on the grass will aid him in this match against a player that is Ranked higher than him.

However it has to be remembered that Cuevas has not had the best record on grass through his career and will be forced to work hard for some of the points he earns. The first serve isn't a bad shot, but Cuevas will have to deal with a different movement on this surface compared with his favoured clay and someone like Baghdatis can expose his limitations on grass.

We never can know how well Baghdatis will serve in a match, but he should get cheaper points out of the first serve and I think he can build pressure on Cuevas through the match. After some difficult moments, I expect Baghdatis will be able to come through this Quarter Final with a 64, 64 win.


Andreas Seppi - 3.5 games v Dudi Sela: He might never have been a consistent face in the top 4o of the World Rankings but there is plenty of talent in the Dudi Sela racquet which makes him a dangerous player when he is feeling it. He has been so far this week to reach the Quarter Final in Nottingham, but one of the big downsides of the Sela game is the serve which can be exploited on a surface like this one.

The same argument can be levelled at Andreas Seppi, but the Italian has been serving well in the last couple of weeks and he only suffered a close loss to Florian Mayer, the eventual winner in Halle. There is plenty to like about Seppi's game outside of the serve too as he can be an effective return of serve to make up for the likelihood that he would drop his own.

If he can continue in the way he has been playing over the last couple of weeks, Seppi should have the edge in a contest against a player he has beaten in both previous matches. Those came a long time ago so won't be relevant now, but I still think Seppi has shown a little more behind serve than Sela and that could be the difference in making the Semi Final.

I am expecting to see a few break points for both players, but I am looking for Seppi to be the more solid player and come through 75, 64.


Steve Johnson + 2.5 games v Kevin Anderson: The final Quarter Final in Nottingham looks to be the standout match of the day when Kevin Anderson takes on Steve Johnson.

Both players have shown decent form so far this week and the big key for both Anderson and Johnson is going to be the first serve and setting up their service games from there. The second serve and ability to attack that will also be important to get into a position to have a chance to break serve, and I think this is going to be a match dominated by the serve.

It is Kevin Anderson who leads the head to head, but the last two matches have been close and Johnson snapped a four match losing run against the South African at the end of last season. Johnson has been serving very well so far this week, but he has to maintain that as there will be a lot of pressure put on him by Anderson's own big serve which has been firing.

Anderson is yet to face a break point so far this week and was very good in beating Fernando Verdasco on Wednesday. However I have been impressed with the way Johnson has been playing too although he has to be better when he does get a half chance in this match, better than he was in his win over Vasek Pospisil.

All in all this looks a match that might need tie-breakers to settle things and I will back the American with the games in the pocket.


Kristina Mladenovic - 2.5 games v Monica Puig: A big hitting contest is likely to develop in this Quarter Final and I don't think there is an awful lot between Kristina Mladenovic and Monica Puig. Both look to be rounding into very good form for Wimbledon too judging by the results they have earned so far in Eastbourne and I think this could be a fun match with plenty of winners to enjoy.

Why do I like the Frenchwoman to come through this match though and cover what could be a large amount of games when you consider the form being shown? My main reasoning is that Mladenovic has shown more consistency in her serving this week and I think that will build some pressure on Puig who might not be prepared for the firepower that will be coming back at her in this match.

The grass courts suits both players, but I do think Mladenovic has an edge when it comes to the serve and being able to hold. That is a huge importance on the grass courts and should see her in a position to earn the majority of the break points in this one and thus get into a better position to make the Semi Final.

After a lot of big winners and some heavy hitting, I am looking for Mladenovic to see off Puig 76, 64 in this Quarter Final.


Dominika Cibulkova + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Two players who will be very familiar with one another's game will be looking to impose their will on the other in this Quarter Final. For Dominika Cibulkova it is trying to use her power to hit through the grass courts and put Agnieszka Radwanska on the backfoot, while Radwanska will look to use the conditions to frustrate Cibulkova and extract mistakes from her game.

It is Radwanska who has been able to do that more often than Cibulkova in the past, but the last seven matches have seen the latter win four of those. This year they have split two tight matches and I think Cibulkova has the talent to keep this one competitive after a couple of impressive wins in Eastbourne.

The last couple of years on the grass have not been great for Cibulkova, but her opponent is unlikely to blow her off the court either. There is no doubt that Radwanska has had a lot more success on this surface than perhaps any other and she was a Semi Finalist at Wimbledon in 2015. Since 2012 Radwanska has reached two Semi Finals and a Final at Wimbledon and the surface suits her variation of shots very well.

It should give her the edge in this one, but I also believe Cibulkova is going to give her plenty of questions to answer and is good enough to win a set in this one at least. Taking the games looks the right way to approach this Quarter Final as Cibulkova battles Radwanska to the end and perhaps even wins this match outright with a little luck.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Steve Johnson + 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-4, - 0.38 Units (16 Units Staked, - 2.38% Yield)

Wednesday, 22 June 2016

Tennis Picks 2016 (June 22nd)

We are now only a couple of days away before the Wimbledon draw is released so the Qualifiers will continue this week so the draw is ready to be filled out.

I am looking forward to Wimbledon even if it is perhaps being overshadowed by the Euro 2016 tournament with England playing on the opening day of the third Grand Slam of the season. The next two weeks will be full of big events with Wimbledon finishing on the same day of the Euro 2016 Final and I have to say you have got to look forward to that.


For now the concentration is on the two grass court events being played in Eastbourne and Nottingham and Tuesday proved to be a decent day for the picks. It should have been a lot better after Ana Konjuh pulled out with an injury a game away from being blow away by Monica Puig, while I don't think I will ever know how Ekaterina Makarova blew her chances to beat Roberta Vinci convincingly from the positions she manufactured in each of the three sets they played.

On Wednesday all of the Third Round matches will be played as the events try to beat some of the strange weather expected later in the week.


Mikhail Youzhny + 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: The last couple of years have been very difficult for Mikhail Youzhny who is down at Number 73 in the World Rankings. He will have looked at the grass courts as a chance to perhaps improve that Ranking and making a second consecutive Quarter Final would be some achievement for Youzhny.

The Russian won't need me to tell him the size of the task in front of him in this Third Round encounter against Gilles Muller. His opponent reached the Final in Hertongenbosch and then the Quarter Final in Queens as the Muller lefty serve can be quite devastating on the grass courts.

Muller had an impressive win this week already over Jiri Vesely, and he is going to put Youzhny under some immense pressure in this one. However I do think the latter has enough grass court experience and is playing well enough of late to give Muller a few problems to solve himself.

The key for Youzhny is going to be getting enough balls back in play on the return of serve and see if Muller can hold up from the back of the court or make the right approaches to the net. Youzhny needs to serve well to keep Muller from taking complete control of this match and I think this might be a tight match that needs three sets to determine the winner.


Steve Johnson - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: Two big serving players from North America will look to impose their game on the other and there is not a lot to split Steve Johnson and Vasek Pospisil.

Both players have had disappointing 2016 seasons to this point, but recent form certainly gives Steve Johnson the edge. He has been using his serve to full effect on the grass courts over the last couple of weeks compared with Pospisil who won his first main Tour match since the Miami Masters when beating Damir Dzumhur in the Second Round.

That does not show that Dzumhur had to come through a match earlier in the day and perhaps had little to offer either emotionally or physically. It shouldn't be the case for Johnson who had another very impressive win against John Millman on Tuesday and who should feel a big serving display gives him a big edge in the contest.

For all the power Pospisil has, he has not really made the best use of his serve and I think Johnson comes through 76, 64 in this one.


Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 games v Monica Puig: There was no doubting that Caroline Wozniacki was playing at a very decent level when crushing Sam Stosur in straight sets on Tuesday. She used the windy conditions to her advantage and Wozniacki looked after her serve effectively and I think she will need to be close to her best in this one to get through to the Quarter Final.

Her opponent is Monica Puig who has won four matches in Eastbourne already this week and also reached a Semi Final on the grass earlier this month. A confident Puig can be a very dangerous player as she has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes, but I do think someone like Wozniacki has the capabilities to frustrate her on a grass court.

I think Wozniacki will look to play Puig like Kirsten Flipkens did in beating her in straight sets last week in Mallorca. I expect Wozniacki will try to vary the pace she gives Puig off the ground while her ability to slice the ball and keep it low might extract more errors from the Puerto Rican's game.

The key for Wozniacki will be to serve as well as she did for the most part against Stosur and try and keep Puig unbalanced on the return. If she can do that, I do think Wozniacki will be a little too good on the day and come through 75, 64.


Johanna Konta + 3.5 games v Petra Kvitova: Last season was a memorable one for Johanna Konta and one that will see her going into Wimbledon as one of the Seeded players. Getting to this position is a great achievement, but Konta will need to double her work to stay inside the top twenty in the World Rankings.

It has been hard graft for her in recent weeks and the grass court season has been something of a disappointment for Konta so far. Konta has only won back to back matches once since the Miami Premier Event, that coming at the Rome Premier Event, and that means she is yet to win two matches in a row on the grass this season.

Any time you play a former Wimbledon Champion it is going to be a challenge, so Konta taking on a two time Wimbledon Champion in Petra Kvitova is a huge task in front of her. Even though Kvitova's game is perfect for the grass courts, she hasn't been firing this season and too often has dropped silly sets and subsequently matches, while it has to be said that Kvitova was fortunate to beat Timea Babos in straight sets.

The serve for both players is going to be key in this Third Round match and I do think Konta will be inspired by the home crowd to take a set in this one. If she can take the chances that Babos missed on Tuesday, Konta can make this a very close match and I will take the games against a dangerous player like Kvitova.


Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: These two players both took on awkward Italian players on Tuesday and both Andrea Petkovic and Ekaterina Makarova came through in three tough sets. This looks a very interesting Third Round match but I think Petkovic will have the edge having won all four previous matches against Makarova.

That alone isn't enough to make me believe in Petkovic, but she has had some previous solid results on the grass. Petkovic does have some heavy shots that makes her dangerous on this surface and I also have to say I am not convinced about Makarova who has looked a little unsure of herself in her last two matches.

Makarova has shown a little more form in those matches at the right time to come through against Tara Moore and Roberta Vinci but she will have to be a lot better against a competent grass court player like Petkovic. I also think Makarova may struggle against someone like Petkovic who can play solid defence, but has the power to quickly turn a point around in her favour while also being the superior mover around the court.

It has been Petkovic who has shown that to be the key to their matches and she has won seven sets in a row. I think she is the player more likely to battle through some difficult moments in this one and I like Petkovic to win 75, 64.

MY PICKS: Mikhail Youzhny + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Johanna Konta + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 3-1 + 3.62 Units (8 Units Staked, + 45.25% Yield)

Tuesday, 21 June 2016

Tennis Picks 2016 (June 21st)

All roads lead to Wimbledon and we are into the final two grass court tournaments before the third Grand Slam of the season gets underway in less than a week's time. The ATP event in Nottingham doesn't feature too many of the big names as most of those will spend their time playing exhibition matches and getting themselves mentally ready for a tough two week event.

The WTA event in Eastbourne does see more of the top names taking part as they put their final preparations for Wimbledon together and both events have plenty of tennis matches to get through on Tuesday as they look to make sure those events are concluded by Saturday.

The weather might play havoc on both tournaments through the week, but Tuesday looks a great day for tennis.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Victor Estrella Burgos: A solid win over Rajeev Ram in the First Round will have given Victor Estrella Burgos a boost in confidence on a surface on which he has struggled. That win means Estrella Burgos has improved to 3-6 in main Tour grass matches and the veteran player is going to be challenged by Fernando Verdasco who has had some big results on the surface in the past.

When the draw is made for Wimbledon, Verdasco looks like one of those dangerous First Round opponents that every Seed in the draw will want to avoid. I even include the likes of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray in that statement because Verdasco can still produce some sublime tennis when he brings his 'A' game to the court.

The Spaniard showed that in beating Stan Wawrinka at Queens last week, although he couldn't back up that victory in the next Round when going down to Bernard Tomic. This match should be a little more comfortable for Verdasco as his own experiences on grass courts should give him an edge over a player that is perhaps not at his best on the surface.

This does look a big number to cover, but I think Verdasco can do the job and come through with a 63, 64 win.


Steve Johnson - 2.5 games v John Millman: It was a solid week in Queens for Steve Johnson who perhaps feels he should have beaten Marin Cilic in his Quarter Final defeat to the eventual Finalist. 2016 has been a difficult season for Johnson so far and the American has not had the most success on the grass courts, but his game should work well on the grass courts.

Johnson has a big serve and a heavy forehand, but I think his return game can let him down sometimes. However I expect Johnson to be comfortable facing John Millman who he has beaten twice already this season and who possesses a serve that is unlikely to push players backwards.

Most of the Australian contingent would be very comfortable on the grass and Millman had some very good results on the surface last season. He hasn't really backed that up so far in 2016 and I think Johnson will have more success on the return of serve than Millman will in this Second Round match.

I can't imagine any Johnson match is ever straight forward as he can go on some really cool patches with his play at any time. However I do think he will be a little too good in this one and will come through 76, 64.


Monica Puig - 2.5 games v Ana Konjuh: Both players have come through the Qualifiers to take their place in the Second Round in Eastbourne and that should mean two confident players take to the court. Monica Puig already has one Semi Final appearance on a grass court this season, but she is taking on a player in Ana Konjuh of whom big things are expected in her future.

It hasn't been the best 2016 for Konjuh so far as perhaps some of the expectations on her shoulders has had an effect on her tennis. It does have to be remembered that the Croatian player did win the title in Nottingham last season so is clearly very happy on a grass court, but she is going to need to be at her best against Puig who has a big game that should be suited to this surface too.

Puig didn't have a great grass court season last year, but she has previously reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon so can play on this surface. She is also in the midst of what looks to be a career year for Puig and that confidence might prove to be the key difference in this match between these players.

I can see this one going three sets, but that is where a confident Puig should be too good for Konjuh who is perhaps not feeling her best tennis. I like Puig to come through 63, 46, 64 in this one.


Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 games v Roberta Vinci: It hasn't been a great first few months of the 2016 season for Ekaterina Makarova but it is still a surprise to see her dropped to Number 39 in the World Rankings. The Russian had to battle harder than expected to beat Tara Moore in the First Round, but Makarova has performed very strongly in Eastbourne in the past and does enjoy the grass.

The same might not be said for the Number 2 Seed Roberta Vinci who is coming in off a disappointing clay court campaign. This is her first grass court match of the year and it can't be ignored that the Italian has lost all five matches played on the surface since reaching the Fourth Round at Wimbledon in 2013. Vinci has won just two sets in those five matches and now faces someone who has a big serve and heavy groundstrokes.

Makarova has regularly reached the Quarter Final in Eastbourne and is a former winner here, although she will have to contain the unforced errors to keep Vinci at bay. She didn't serve well enough when losing to Vinci in Stuttgart on a clay court earlier this season, while they are 2-2 on the head to head when playing on a hard court.

The grass courts should give Makarova more of an edge though and I think Vinci's recent poor performances on the surface as well as recent poor form has to be considered. As long as Makarova keeps her emotions in check, I think she is good enough to find a 64, 64 win.


Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 games v Sam Stosur: Not many would predict that Sam Stosur would have such a poor record on the grass courts when you look at the way she approaches her tennis. Her serve, especially the kicker, and her ability off the forehand and playing the net should mean Stosur is a very strong grass court player, but it simply hasn't happened for her at Wimbledon.

Even recent form at any grass court tournament has not been very good from Stosur and the Australian is 2-5 in her last seven matches on the grass. The worry for Stosur fans has to be that all five of those losses came as the favourite and mainly as a strong favourite too.

Being a favourite isn't a problem in this match as she takes on Caroline Wozniacki in the Second Round. It had been some time since we saw the former World Number 1 on the court having missed the entire clay court season, and Wozniacki has struggled for consistency which happens off a long lay off. However her win over Alize Cornet in the First Round was impressive and her added feel for the surface should give her an edge in this Second Round match.

Matches between these two players have been close through their career and the Wozniacki 5-4 lead on the head to head shows that. The Dane has won the last two matches on grass though, both in Eastbourne, and I think she is going to have a bit too much again in this one. If Stosur serves well she should be able to take a set, but I think Wozniacki comes through 46, 63, 64.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Friday, 26 June 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (June 26th)

The Wimbledon draw is going to be made on Friday morning so my attention will be shifting to that tournament over the weekend.

I will be looking to get the Wimbledon preview with any outright picks out by Saturday and picks from the first day of the tournament to be ready for Sunday so look out for those over the weekend.


Before all that, Eastbourne and Nottingham will be looking to put a full stop on what has been decent tournaments at both venues this week. The tournaments are scheduled to come to an end on Saturday which will ensure the Finalists have ample time to get ready for Wimbledon, although those are only going to be completed as long as the weather continues to play ball as it has for much of the week.


Marcos Baghdatis - 1.5 games v Denis Istomin: This has already been a very good week for Marcos Baghdatis and he might just be catching Denis Istomin at the right time this week. As well as Istomin has done to reach the Semi Final, he had to come through a long Quarter Final with Leonardo Mayer and will also be battling fatigue as well as Baghdatis in the Semi Final.

It hadn't been a great grass court season for Istomin prior to this week with losses to Joao Sousa and Yen-Hsun Lu behind him, but he has had success on grass in the past. In fact this is the second season in a row he has reached the Semi Final in the event prior to Wimbledon and Istomin has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes that should transfer onto the grass.

However, Baghdatis has really turned back the clock this week in his four wins where he is yet to drop a set. The 64, 64 win over Simone Bolelli in the Quarter Final was very impressive from the Cypriot and Baghdatis has always been very comfortable on the grass.

He has served well and continuing to do that will give Baghdatis a real chance to keep the pressure on Istomin and help him break him down. It potentially will need three sets to separate them with the way Istomin has been playing, but I like Baghdatis to win this 63, 46, 64.


Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.5 games v Sam Querrey: It was remarkable watching Sam Querrey somehow get out of the second set with a win against Gilles Simon in the Quarter Final and I do think he is on borrowed time here. Querrey was 15-40 down on serve at 5-5 in the second set having dropped the first, while Simon missed match point by an inch in the tie-breaker before falling away in the final set.

The American has the kind of game that could frustrate Alexandr Dolgopolov, who made much harder work of Yen-Hsun Lu than he should have in his own Quarter Final, although I do think the variation in the Dolgopolov game will be able to extract mistakes from Querrey too.

You can't dismiss Querrey simply for his background on the grass courts as a former winner at Queens and he also has to be respected for the kind of tennis that works well on the grass. Querrey has a big serve and follows that with a heavy forehand and will win plenty of short points if he has his eye in.

The key for Dolgopolov is to force the rally into the fifth/sixth and beyond number of shots where he should have an edge. He has to stop some of the loose mistakes as he won't recover too many leads he hands to Querrey, but I do think Dolgopolov has played the better tennis over the last couple of Rounds.

This is likely to be tight and is another of the Semi Final matches in Nottingham that might need to go the distance, but I think Dolgopolov finds a way to come through with a 67, 76, 64 win.


Sloane Stephens + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: I was surprised with the ease in which Agnieszka Radwanska dismissed the challenge of Tsvetana Pironkova on Thursday and she is a big favourites to progress to the Final. Radwanska has the head to head advantage in this one, is a former Wimbledon Finalist so comfortable on the grass, and has looked to be getting back to her best over the last couple of weeks.

She takes on Sloane Stephens who received a walkover to the Semi Final and is still trying to make her first Final on the Tour so there will be some pressure on her shoulders. However, it has to be said that Stephens has been playing a high level this week, although this represents another step up in class from what she has seen so far.

Stephens has to avoid becoming frustrated by an opponent that will get a lot of balls back in play, but she certainly has the game to win this match outright. Her serve can give her the chance to win cheap points and Stephens has to make sure she hurts the Radwanska serve and make the Pole feel her recent struggles on the court prior to the grass season.

Matches between them have been competitive in sets, but too often Stephens has allowed Radwanska to win an 'easy' set which is a concern for my pick. However, I do think Stephens has the kind of game that should give Radwanska problems on this surface and I will look for her to keep this competitive.


Belinda Bencic + 3.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: She might only be 18 years old, but Belinda Bencic won't want to be taken to school by Caroline Wozniacki in the manner she was in Istanbul last year when she was double bageled. Any concerns that there is a mental issue was removed when Bencic beat Wozniacki at Indian Wells earlier this season and she will be looking to get to another grass court Final this week.

Bencic reached the Final at Hertogenbosch before finding Camila Giorgi a little too hot to handle, but the Italian is a very aggressive player that can take the racquet out of an opponent's hands. The same can be said of Sabine Lisicki on a grass court, as her 27 aces against Bencic proved, but the Swiss teenager will know Wozniacki is unlikely to blast her off the court.

That means there will be some long rallies between two players more known for their accuracy and consistency than their overwhelming power on the court and I think this could be a very entertaining match. Bencic's serve was letting her down at times in her Quarter Final win, but Wozniacki faced the same problem and there could be a number of break points for both women.

Whoever plays the big points best will win, as is the case in most tennis matches, but I do believe this is a competitive contest throughout. Both Bencic and Wozniacki should have their moments and there is every chance we need three sets to separate the players which makes this number of games being offered on Bencic look attractive.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-10, - 5.64 Units (36 Units Staked, - 15.67% Yield)

Thursday, 25 June 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (June 25th)

We are now just a couple of days away from the Wimbledon draw and that means the tournaments in Eastbourne and Nottingham have reached the Quarter Final stage. Both have been interesting tournaments, but there have been a bunch of strange results this week as players have perhaps begun to look ahead to performing at the next Grand Slam of the season.

However, the remaining sixteen players left in Eastbourne and Nottingham must now be looking at their chance to win a title so the expectation is that the focus is a lot clearer in the remaining three days to give the winner some momentum to take into Wimbledon.


Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games v Simone Bolelli: Simone Bolelli had to dig deep to come through his Third Round match against Adrian Mannarino and he has beaten Marcos Baghdatis in their two previous matches. That includes a thumping in the First Round of the Masters in Miami, but I think the grass courts can allow Baghdatis to come through with his first win over the Italian.

It hasn't been a great grass court season for Baghdatis even if the surface should be one the Cypriot favours, but he is playing with more confidence this week. There is no doubting that Baghdatis is a player that has to be feeling good about himself if he is going to put together wins and I think that confidence can help him even if Bolelli won their last match comfortably.

Bolelli did have a very good win over Adrian Mannarino after struggling for a set and a half to get into the match, but he has to be more consistent behind his serve. Hr has played some very solid tennis this week and Bolelli will be a real threat if he can start to read the Baghdatis second serve, a shot he might see far more often than Baghdatis would like.

If Baghdatis is able to look after the serve, I think he has played effectively off the ground to think he can find a way to create break point chances. The first set could be incredibly tight, but I think Baghdatis finds his way to a 76, 64 win.


Gilles Simon - 1.5 games v Sam Querrey: I was interested to see how Gilles Simon would react to the eighth longest three set match in ATP history in his win over Marcel Granollers, but he proved effective with a straight sets win over Joao Sousa.

The Frenchman has admitted that he is very pleased with his form going into Wimbledon, but he won't want it to end here against the dangerous Sam Querrey who is yet to drop a set this week.

The big serve of Querrey is a huge weapon on the grass courts, but Simon has a real ability to get plenty of balls back in play and showed he can frustrate big servers in his win over Milos Raonic at Queens last week. Simon couldn't handle the Kevin Anderson performance, but Querrey isn't playing with the same confidence the South African was and I also think the head to head is important to note.

These players might not have met on grass before, but Simon is 4-0 against Querrey including 3 wins on the hard courts. Pablo Cuevas showed that Querrey can be troubled if the rallies are extended and that is a key for Simon who can replicate that but with more confidence on the grass courts than Cuevas had.

It might need three sets to separate these players, but the Frenchman can continue a strong grass court season by reaching the Semi Final here.


Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: Both players had an impressive win on Wednesday in their Third Round matches, but I think it will be Alexandr Dolgopolov who is more likely to move into the Semi Final in this match with Yen-Hsun Lu.

The Dolgopolov win over Dominic Thiem was much more expected than Lu's surprisingly comfortable win over Feliciano Lopez, but both men should come into this match with plenty of confidence.

I don't always know what to expect from Dolgopolov and his inconsistency is a big reason he has not maintained his position inside the top 20 in the World Rankings. While Lu won't really move much from the level he provides on the court, Dolgopolov is just as likely to play like a top player as he is to play like someone who has never picked up a tennis racquet in their life before.


Dolgopolov can be a very awkward customer on the court with his slices and flat shots not a common sight for opponents. Lu has struggled to deal with him in the past and I think the Ukrainian can move into the Semi Final after a three set win.


Tsvetana Pironkova + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: There were signs in Nottingham a couple of weeks ago that Agnieszka Radwanska might be turning around a poor 2015 season by her standards. A disappointing defeat in the Semi Final of that tournament might have dented some confidence, but Radwanska has been in fine form this week in Eastbourne too.

The Pole has won two very good matches this week without really breaking a sweat, but I am expecting Tsvetana Pironkova to test her to the fullest.

Radwanska might be a former Finalist at Wimbledon, but she was a fairly consistent player across the board, while Pironkova really has saved some of her best performances for this surface. Wins over Sam Stosur and Dominika Cibulkova in the last couple of Rounds should show the confidence Pironkova has on the grass courts as she had suffered lots of defeats to those two players before this week.

Her power on the grass comes through with the flat shots off the ground fizzing through the court and Pironkova could have a lot of success attacking the Radwanska serve. The Bulgarian might be 2-10 on the head to head with Radwanska, but one of those wins came on grass and the four previous meetings on this surface has seen Pironkova be very competitive three times.

The slight dip in the confidence levels of Radwanska has to be a worry for her fans and Pironkova is playing well enough to keep this very competitive with three tight sets likely to be required to separate the two players.


Belinda Bencic - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: You'd probably never guess that I think Johanna Konta should be Ranked much higher than her current 146 World Ranking, especially as I am going to go against the British player for a third time this week.

It hasn't been much fun the first two times as Konta continues defying the Ranking and the talent differential to beat players that will be disappointed with their performances. Garbine Muguruza just made too many mistakes when it came down to it on Wednesday, but she did drag Konta into a deep match and fatigue could play a part in this one.

Of course playing in front of her home crowd should provide Konta with a shot of adrenaline to get into this match against Belinda Bencic, a player she beat here in Eastbourne last year. However, this time Bencic comes into the match in much better form and her performances in this grass court season will have raised her confidence.

Bencic is a player that is set to reach the highest level in the women's game and she has had impressive wins over Madison Keys and Eugenie Bouchard, even if the latter had to retire when down in the second set. Her consistency is still being built up, but that is unsurprising for a player that is 18 years old, but Bencic has been performing very well over the last month having one Final under her belt at Hertogenbosch.

I have a lot of respect for the level of tennis that Konta has produced at times, but it is hard to imagine she can keep it up. Even though she beat Bencic convincingly last year, both players might come in with different levels of fitness this time and I think the young Swiss player finds a way to battle through and cover this number of games.


Sloane Stephens - 3.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: I was very impressed with some of the tennis that Sloane Stephens produced in a convincing win over Heather Watson on Wednesday and there is no doubt that Stephens is enjoying her best portion of the 2015 season. She will have to be on her game again if she is going to make the Semi Final this week as Stephens takes on Lucky Loser Daria Gavrilova who has taken full advantage of her fortunate path into the main draw.

It hasn't been easy for Gavrilova to take advantage of her luck to get into the main draw as she came from behind to beat Camila Giorgi, the Hertogenbosch Champion, and also needed three sets to see off Sara Errani. Sloane Stephens plays much more like Giorgi and will take note of how close she came to beating Gavrilova, although there is plenty of power off the Gavrilova racquet that will trouble the American.

This has already been a productive week for Gavrilova who had previously been just 3-4 on the grass courts, but she has to contain Stephens who made a fast start in her last two matches to take control. Some of the consistency she showed against Watson was impressive, but Gavrilova is likely to fight fire with fire and this looks a big hitting match.

Stephens just has the look of someone who is rediscovering her game and I think that helps make the difference in a good match as she comes through 75, 64.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.46 Units (26 Units Staked, - 13.31% Yield)

Wednesday, 24 June 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (June 24th)

The grass court tournaments before the beginning of Wimbledon continue on Wednesday and there is another full day of tennis as the events make sure they are going to be completed by Saturday. It might not be the case later this week when more rain is due to affect both Eastbourne and Nottingham and that might mean the tournaments are concluded indoors with none of the players likely to be too happy being postponed until Sunday.

At that point winning a title is an obvious goal, but all the players will want to be well rested for the travel to London and being ready to play at Wimbledon.

Qualifying also continues at Roehampton with both the men's and women's events reaching the Second Round of those qualifiers and we are now fast approaching the draw for the Grand Slam which is made on Friday morning.


It wasn't a great day for the picks with a lot of mixed results as a couple of surprise results went against me, but that can be an issue in the week before a Grand Slam. Not many of those in the ATP tournament will really expect they can win at Wimbledon, but the WTA tournament had been loaded with some high Ranking players, although that draw has been decimated by injury, illness and surprising results too.

The tournament in Eastbourne has regularly been seen as an important one on the WTA Tour, but it is clear that the new extended grass court season is still being worked out by the players to make sure they get the best preparation for Wimbledon.


Adrian Mannarino v Simone Bolelli: You may not immediately associate a player like Simone Bolelli with the grass courts, but he has had some decent success on the surface in the past. Bolelli reached the Third Round at Wimbledon last year which is the third time in his career that he has reached that far and Bolelli has a few wins under his belt on grass over the last couple of weeks.

Even with that in mind, I am a little surprised that Bolelli has been set as the favourite to beat Adrian Mannarino who is an improving player on the Tour.

The Frenchman has a Fourth Round appearance at Wimbledon under his belt and also reached the Quarter Final in Hertogenbosch earlier this season. Mannarino has a lefty serve that should cause Bolelli some issues to deal with and I do think he is the more comfortable player on this surface.

It will be a close match I am sure and it might come down to a tie-breaker in which the winner takes control of the match. However, I do think the wrong player is favoured and will look for Mannarino to put another Quarter Final on a grass court on his resume.


Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: Over the last few years, Pablo Cuevas has showed little interest in playing at Wimbledon- he was beaten in the First Round there last year, but hadn't played at Wimbledon since 2009 when he qualified for the Slam and reached the Second Round.

There might be some more interest in the grass from Cuevas this year as he actually entered a pre-Wimbledon tournament in Halle before heading to Nottingham. Cuevas was beaten in the First Round in Halle, but he did beat Dudi Sela here in two tight sets to give him some confidence to take into the match.

However, Cuevas is now facing a player who is very comfortable on the grass as Sam Querrey is his opponent fresh off a routine win over Santiago Giraldo. Querrey could have won much easier than the 76, 64 score suggested if he took his break point chances in any of three consecutive return games in the first set, but it was still straight-forward for the American.

Querrey is much more comfortable on the grass of these two players and his serve gives him a big edge in the match. You have to feel he will get enough chances to find a way to break the Cuevas serve in each set and that should be enough for Querrey to move through 64, 64.


Alexandr Dolgopolov - 2.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Boris Becker might not believe there are too many 'characters' coming through to replace the likes of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer on the ATP Tour, but I am not exactly sure what he is getting at.

It was in the same interview that he said none of the tennis players are allowed to show off their personalities, while he can't have meant from a talent perspective either. Dominic Thiem is one of those younger players that looks like he could go very far in the sport, although he is yet to really find his feet on the grass.

Thiem has admitted as much himself in the past and he had lost all four professional grass court matches prior to his win over Malek Jaziri this week. He dismissed him without any problems, but Alexandr Dolgopolov is a much better grass court player and can make that difference come off in the match.

However, I am concerned that Dolgopolov had to work so hard to beat Pablo Andujar in the Second Round and he has had a poor grass court season so far even taking into consideration a win over Rafael Nadal. Dolgopolov has had plenty of success on the surface in the past and looks to be the more comfortable of the two and I think he can get a measure of revenge for his loss to Thiem in Paris at the end of last year.


Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: You have to have respect for the way that Yen-Hsun Lu can play on the grass courts and hard courts, but Feliciano Lopez is the stronger player on this surface and I expect he will be making it through to the Quarter Final.

After a really strong 2014 grass court season which saw Lopez reach the Final in Queens and win the title in Eastbourne, 2015 has seen the Spaniard lose his first match in Stuttgart and in the Second Round at Queens Club. A win over Taylor Fritz in Nottingham was to be expected, but Lopez has to get a little more out of the return game if he is going to see off Lu.

Lu has already put together two good wins this week without dropping a set which includes a straight sets win over Andreas Seppi, the Finalist from Halle last week, in the Second Round. That will give him confidence and Lu has a decent serve and consistent groundstrokes that can be very productive on grass.

However, I think Lopez will get enough returns in play to find his way to the net and put the pressure on Lu, particularly if he is serving well. The backhand remains a weakness on other surfaces, but the slice employed by Lopez is a very effective shot on grass if he follows it to the net. The ball stays lower and players hit up to Lopez who is an effective volleyer and I think that helps him beat Lu 76, 64 in this Third Round match.


Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 games v Johanna Konta: When I said I thought Johanna Konta had a lot more potential in her game than she has perhaps shown on the WTA Tour so far, I was still not expecting the British player to beat Ekaterina Makarova in the Second Round. Konta highlighted how good she could be with an impressive straight sets win and I do wonder how she will deal with it from a mental perspective having beaten her first top ten opponent.

If Konta can take the win and be able to move on and concentrate on her next match, she will give Garbine Muguruza something to think about. Konta has already pushed Karolina Pliskova, the Birmingham Finalist, to a three set match this grass court season, and wins over Zarina Dyas and Makarova are impressive this week.

However, it can be tough for the lower Ranked players to produce the same level the day after a huge win like the one Konta had and that is where Muguruza could do some real damage. The Spaniard should have the game that transfers effectively onto the grass, but she hasn't produced consistent results on the surface at this point of her career.

I do wonder if Muguruza has a great feel for the movement on grass and whether the lower bouncing ball just disrupts her timing. She has reached a Quarter Final and Semi Final in Hertogenbosch so Muguruza can clearly play on the grass, but I do think it does bother her mentally to be on the green courts.

However, I think the win she had over Polona Hercog after dropping the first set will help Muguruza and she can perhaps take advantage of Konta if the Brit has just had too much to deal with after the biggest win of her career. It might go three sets, but Muguruza should have enough to find the cover.


Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Heather Watson: One of the weird head to head records on the WTA Tour had to be the 4-0 lead Heather Watson had over Sloane Stephens despite the latter achieving a lot more success on the Tour in general. I could understand it when you looked at the match up as Watson had the defence to frustrate someone like Stephens while giving her no pace to work with off the ground, but something may have changed at the French Open.

Watson won a match between the players at the start of the season in Hobart, but she was crushed by Stephens at the French Open and I think the American franks that form.

Both players had solid Second Round wins in Eastbourne and Watson is a former Semi Finalist in Eastbourne, but I do think Stephens is very comfortable on the surface too. She might not have played another grass court tournament prior to this week, but Stephens is a former Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon and I do think she has turned around her form after a poor start to 2015.

If Stephens can continue hitting the ball as she has been over the last couple of months, I think she will have too much for Watson again and I think the number of games is perhaps a couple of games too low. Some may think Watson has the stronger grass court pedigree but she was just 5-7 on this surface over the last couple of years prior to the two wins achieved in Eastbourne and I like Stephens battling through 76, 63.

MY PICKS: Adrian Mannarino @ 2.05 Stan James (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.06 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.57% Yield)