Tennis Picks 2022 (June 23rd)

It was a mixed day which looked like it was going to be a really bad one for a long time as those inches I've talked about were all going against me.

A late rally prevented it being a really poor day, but I am looking for better results to take into the final three days of the events being played this week and then to carry that forward into Wimbledon.

I have a right to be a touch irritated with the way a couple of the losing Picks came about- Tallon Griekspoor won, but I could never have imagined him losing a set 6-0, while Dan Evans had a chance to get back on serve in the second set at 5-4, 0-40, and that would have been enough for the two setter to cover the total games line set.

All of the Quarter Final matches are scheduled to be played on Thursday, but there are wetter conditions around in Eastbourne and Mallorca and it may mean delays or matches having to be moved to the outside courts to make sure the tournament is down to the final four in both the ATP and WTA event being played there by the time the day's play is completed.

Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Tommy Paul: For most players the focus will have turned to Wimbledon and making sure they are ready to compete at the third Grand Slam of the season, but that is a tournament without Ranking points. There will be a number of players that will be disappointed to have heard the news, but it also means that some are out there this week looking to make sure they produce some healthy results in order to avoid a massive drop in the Rankings.

Motivation for Alex De Minaur shouldn't be a problem having won the title here in Eastbourne last year and knowing that he suffered a First Round exit at Wimbledon. That defeat may mean he is not as keen to have to dig deep over the next couple of days, but the fact he is looking after some big Ranking points should help keep the Australian focused.

With days remaining until Wimbledon begins, you have to factor in the motivational angles and I do think the defending Champion will want to pick up another title here. Alex De Minaur has played well in his two wins in the tournament and is clearly enjoying the conditions, although it will feel different on Thursday with the rain cooling the temperature down, while De Minaur may not be exactly sure where he will be playing this match.

That shouldn't affect the mindset as Alex De Minaur takes on Tommy Paul for the third time in 2022 having won the previous two matches in straight sets. This is the third surface on which Paul and De Minaur will be competing, but the latter has long suggested grass is his favourite of the surfaces on which the Tour is played and I am not sure the same can be said for Tommy Paul.

The American had not played any grass court tennis since 2019, but he did reach the Quarter Final in London last week and has backed that up with another couple of wins in Eastbourne. However, Tommy Paul has not been the most convincing of performer and has perhaps benefited from the small margins edging his way at key times during matches to earn the victories.

Tommy Paul has held 85% of his service games played on the grass this season, but he is only winning 63% of the points played behind that shot. Those are decent enough numbers, although the main problem for Tommy Paul is his limited return game on the grass and I do think Alex De Minaur can largely keep him under pressure with his own serve.

Alex De Minaur has won 66% of his points played behind serve, but he has only held 81% of his service games and that is largely down to a really poor effort on the break points. He has faced nineteen break points in his four grass court matches, but De Minaur has been broken ten times and you do have to feel he has to get better on those pressure points against someone like Tommy Paul who has broken in 16% of return games.

There is no doubt that Alex De Minaur has been the more efficient return player and that has also shown up in their head to head matches this season with the Australian holding 81% of service games compared with Tommy Paul's 69% mark and I think that will also be the case in this Quarter Final.

It can be tough to really be confident in Alex De Minaur, but he does tend to beat the players expected and I think he will have too much for Tommy Paul who has ridden his luck at times to put together the wins he has this past month.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie-Maxime Cressy Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Benjamin Bonzi - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Bianca Andreescu @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jack Draper - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 21-19, - 0.54 Units (78 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (June 23-25)

So how is everyone enjoying the return of the Premier League?

There is no doubt that things are not the same as we remember, and it did take a few matches to really build the interest but I do think most will be used to the 'new normal'.

Most importantly I do believe the players will be feeling more accustomed to playing in front of empty stands having done it once, or in some cases twice, although I do think the teams at the bottom of the table are suffering as I expected before the resumption. Without that push from the crowd, it is much harder for those clubs to bridge the talent gap to the sides they are facing and the limp manner in which Norwich City, Bournemouth and West Ham United were beaten at home this past weekend is worrying.

Aston Villa took a single point from two home games, but at least made a much greater effort than those three sides mentioned and I do believe the three relegated clubs will come from the four mentioned.

Things are still tight when it comes to the relegation battle and the race for the top four and European places so the whole outlook could change very quickly. With the fixtures staggered as they are, I do think the pressure will build on clubs in a different manner as you would expect if the schedule had played out as planned before the pandemic took over.

With another GW just a day after the previous one ended, it is another round of FPL that kicks off on Tuesday. The problem all players of the Official Fantasy game will be dealing with is the deadline comes at a time when not all the team news can be put together and that means second guessing things.

I will elaborate further on my plans below the thoughts for how this round of League fixtures will go.

Leicester City v Brighton Pick: Both Leicester City and Brighton are coming off of positive results and will be looking to build the momentum to take into the remaining Premier League games to be played.

For Leicester City it will also push them forward when it comes to a potential FA Cup success as they chase down one of the four Champions League places in the table. The late goal conceded to Watford would have hurt, but Leicester City will be happy with a positive result and the chance to maintain their lead over 5th placed Manchester United with one less game to be completed.

Playing at home should be a little more comfortable for Leicester City even if the early trend around the top European Leagues is that some of the advantage has been eroded without a crowd. I still believe that may affect the lesser talented squads more than the top teams though so I do expect Leicester City to have too much for Brighton on Tuesday in the first game of the latest round of fixtures.

That is no disrespect to a Brighton team coming off a big win over Arsenal and one that has proved to be stubborn to break down away from home in their most 'recent' games. Of course you can't really discuss that 3 game unbeaten run on their travels as form considering the last fixture was played three months ago, but Brighton have shown they can make life difficult so it will be up to the Leicester City players to find the motivation from within rather than from the stands.

The Foxes have won 3 of their last 5 games here in all competitions and during that time they have hit both West Ham United and Aston Villa for four goals. Brighton have shown themselves to be a slightly better defensive side than both of those, but the goalless draw at Wolves was only the third away clean sheet of the season.

Bournemouth and West Ham United both scored at least three goals against Brighton and Sheffield United created enough to believe they deserved more than the single strike in the previous 3 away games The Seagulls played before the draw at Wolves.

Brighton have lost twice in a row here and I think Leicester City will be able to create enough chances to win a game which features at least two goals.

Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United Pick: This is a big game at the top and bottom of the Premier League as Tottenham Hotspur look to ignite a push for a European place and West Ham United try and move clear of the bottom three.

Neither team were at their best this past weekend in home games against Manchester United and Wolves respectively, but I do think the teams will be better for having a game in the legs.

At least Tottenham Hotspur earned a point to remain in touch with 5th placed Manchester United, but Jose Mourinho will know they need more from their remaining eight games to have a chance of getting into the Champions League. More realistic is playing in the Europa League and Spurs will know the importance of that from a financial perspective as they look to repay the debt which came from building this new Stadium.

Chances were not created easily against Manchester United, but Dele Alli is back and West Ham United don't defend nearly as well as Tottenham Hotspur's last opponents. Teams have been able to create plenty against this West Ham United defence and Tottenham Hotspur should be able to do the same.

However it is a rivalry game and West Ham United have had success when visiting Tottenham Hotspur in recent times. They have won 2 in a row in games hosted by Spurs including winning in this Stadium last season and David Moyes will be looking for a big reaction from his team.

The Hammers did look a little toothless in attack against Wolves though and I think Tottenham Hotspur might have more control of the match. The empty Stadium might help the visitors, but Tottenham Hotspur might be able to edge them out narrowly with their greater attacking threats that can be employed.

I feel Tottenham Hotspur will need to score twice to win though considering their own defence has been far from trustworthy and I do think they have enough to do that as they put the pressure on teams above them that play later this week.

Manchester United v Sheffield United Pick: With very little between teams from Chelsea down to Tottenham Hotspur, this was an early fixture which looked like it could be very important for both Manchester United and Sheffield United's dreams of getting into the Champions League.

That is how it looked at the resumption of the Premier League, but Sheffield United have taken a point from a possible six and Manchester United also could only add a point from their opening returning fixture. It means both clubs have slipped behind Chelsea who won at Aston Villa on Sunday and means both Manchester United and Sheffield United need a big result here.

A heatwave hitting the United Kingdom is not going to be helpful for the players despite the 6pm kick off time and it does suggest goals could be in short supply. Temperatures could feel as high as 31 degrees Celsius when this fixture kicks off and that means mistakes could prove pivotal on the day.

With the attacking players short of football, it may also give the chance for defences to be largely on top and especially when you think of the two teams involved in this one at Old Trafford.

However the key difference may be that Manchester United look to have a touch more options in the midfield and attack that could provide a moment of magic to turn things in their favour. Add to that the fact that Sheffield United could be missing as many as three of their regular defensive unit and the chances of mistakes being in the away side more than the home one seem to ramp up.

Chris Wilder will always make his team hard to beat and I won't read too much into the 3-0 loss at Newcastle United as the game was finely balanced before John Egan was sent off to reduce Sheffield United to ten men. Even then I do think the defensive record is perhaps better than it should be with chances that Sheffield United have allowed and Manchester United should punish a more unfamiliar line up that Wilder will have to use.

It won't be easy because Sheffield United are a disciplined team that won't roll over for any team they face. They have not been at their best in the first couple of games and Manchester United have had plenty of time to prepare and I fancy the home side win this one with a clean sheet.

Newcastle United v Aston Villa Pick: Hot weather has to be expected at this time of the year in England, but the heatwave due during the week will only make it harder for players who have had limited match fitness from the first few days of the restart of Premier League Football.

It might mean a slow game develops in the North East where Newcastle United host Aston Villa in what is looking to be a much bigger game for the visitors than the hosts.

That is not to say that Steve Bruce would be happy to lose the momentum picked up in the win over Sheffield United on Sunday. The manager was very pleased with the performance and Newcastle United have a big week in front of them as they host two more matches here, while Bruce himself will be looking to show any prospective new owner that he is the right manager to take Newcastle United forward.

Winning games and finishing in the top half of the Premier League will only add to Bruce's argument and he will be looking to keep the unbeaten run going at St James' Park. Newcastle United have been well organised as they have produced 5 clean sheets in a row at St James' Park and now host an out of form Aston Villa side who have to have had some confidence knocked in the early days of the restart of the Premier League.

A single point and a single goal from two home games is not good enough for Aston Villa who are fighting to get out of the bottom three. They haven't played badly, but Aston Villa continue to struggle to score enough goals or keep enough clean sheets and that is a big worry for any team looking to avoid the drop.

Aston Villa did not score in their last couple of away games which were played three months ago, but the bigger concern for Dean Smith has to be the lack of chances created in those defeats. They have looked better this past week, but breaking down Newcastle United will be far from easy and I think goals may be difficult to find.

The layers are perhaps not seeing things the same way as I expected the 'under 2.5 goals' market to be much shorter than it is. Both teams were involved in high-scoring games on Sunday, but Newcastle United only broke down a ten man opponent, while Aston Villa faced a strong attacking unit of Chelsea.

Neither team will believe they have the same circumstances going into this game and I think we will see two or fewer goals shared out. Before the win over Sheffield United, Newcastle United had seen their previous 4 games finish with one or fewer goals scored, while Aston Villa have seen 3 of their last 5 away from home go the same way.

The last 8 between Newcastle United and Aston Villa have ended with two or fewer goals shared out, while the last 5 between them at St James' Park have ended that way too.

With the heat around and the lack of strong attacks in this one, I think that has to be the most likely outcome of this fixture. I narrowly favour Newcastle United, but will look for a lack of goals no matter the result.

Norwich City v Everton Pick: Both Norwich City and Everton will still feel there are big things to aim for at the end of the 2019/20 season, but you can't help feel this is more important for the home team.

Norwich City were hammered 0-3 by Southampton on Friday and they looked like a team that didn't really believe nine games were enough to avoid relegation to the Championship. Now there are eight left and it is hard to see how Norwich City will be able to pick up enough points if they don't produce a much better effort in their home Stadium.

Defensively they were messy and some rustiness was evident in their attacking play when chances did pop up. Having a game in the legs might sharpen up Norwich City, but this is a team who might have to rely on out-scoring opponents with the defensive injuries they are dealing with through the remainder of the season.

Those injuries will make them vulnerable to an Everton team who will believe they have missed two big opportunities to beat Liverpool this season. The goalless draw on Sunday might have seen Liverpool dominate the ball and the action area, but Everton created the best chances and better finishing would have resulted in a big three points.

Carlo Ancelotti is still convinced a European place is within the grasp of Everton with a strong end to the season and three points here will be important if they can earn them here. Everton have not played well away from home in terms of results, but performances under the Italian have been improved and a bit more luck would have led to better results.

They have created chances, although Everton still look shaky defensively, and I think they will be confident. Having two days fewer to prepare might be an issue for Everton though and it makes me think they are a short enough price to win here which makes it unappealing.

I do wonder if the heat will have a negative impact on the goals markets in the coming days in England, but this is one game where both teams should take risks in order to earn the three points. Neither defence is the most convincing and both Norwich City and Everton do have attacking players that can create chances and score goals.

Before the loss to Southampton, Norwich City were involved in some low-scoring home games, but the defensive injuries balances that out. It was evident in the chances that Southampton created against them, while 9 of the last 11 Everton away games have finished with three or more goals shared out.

I can see both teams hitting the net, but the three points are important enough for both to believe spaces are going to be exploited in the final twenty minutes. That means I will be looking for three or more goals to be shared out between Norwich City and Everton on Wednesday.

Wolves v Bournemouth Pick: Both of these teams were involved in 0-2 scorelines on Saturday, but unfortunately for Bournemouth they were hosting the game against Crystal Palace. On the other hand Wolves were comfortable winners at West Ham United in a game that was lacking some quality until Adama Traore and Pedro Neto were brought on in the second half and sparked Wolves to a successful visit to East London.

They had been in fine form going into the suspension of European Football and Nuno Espirito Santo has to be pleased with the way his Wolves team played in controlling the game on Saturday. This is a team that can find things a little difficult in the final third despite all the aesthetically pleasing football they do tend to play and that is underlined by two goalless draws in their last 4 here.

Wolves are not easy to break down, but they want to be more if they want to be playing in the Champions League next season and this game with Bournemouth does present a big chance for them. Win and they will be 2 points behind Chelsea in 4th and knowing the West London club are hosting Manchester City on Thursday, but any dropped points on Wednesday could be fatal in their bid to earn a Champions League spot through their Premier League finish.

I do think Wolves create chances and in Raul Jimenez they have a striker who scores goals at this level, but I also think Bournemouth will be better than they were on Saturday.

Two early goals knocked the stuffing out of The Cherries and they didn't create an awful lot, but David Brooks was in good nick despite the long lay off. He should be ready to help Bournemouth out here and they will cause problems for Wolves if the home side are slightly off their game, although Eddie Howe's men are hard to trust at the back.

6 straight away Premier League losses can't be easily ignored and I do think the Portuguese players that Wolves have throughout their squad won't be worried about the potential heat the teams will be playing in. Bournemouth concede too many goals and it is hard to see that changing even with the squad bolstered in the three month lay off and so the feeling is that Wolves will win a game that features at least two goals.

In only one win at home this season have Wolves failed to score at least twice while 13 of the last 14 home wins secured in the Premier League have also seen Wolves score at least twice. That includes all 5 played this season and Bournemouth have conceded twice in 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games.

Last season this fixture ended 2-0 and I think that may be the most likely outcome of this one too.

Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: There is little doubt that Liverpool will eventually win the Premier League title, but the next eight games might be all about rebuilding fitness ahead of the 2020/21 campaign. There might be a very short pre-season between campaigns so this may be used as such by Jurgen Klopp whose side are perhaps days away from winning the title.

If Manchester City have dropped points on Monday, Liverpool can be confirmed Champions with a win over Crystal Palace, but Roy Hodgson's men have shown they are not one that will roll over for any opponent.

There were suggestions that the motivation may not be very high for a team in a safe position in the Premier League, but Crystal Palace deservedly beat Bournemouth at the weekend and may still have some European ambitions to fulfil.

It is still a long-shot to imagine that happening, but Crystal Palace will look to be organised and disciplined in what could be very hot conditions at Anfield on Wednesday evening.

Liverpool didn't look their sharpest in the goalless draw with Everton on Sunday and perhaps were fortunate to escape with a point, but they desperately missed the influence of Andrew Robertson and Mohamed Salah. Both could return on Wednesday and that should give Liverpool a bit more spark in the final third which was really lacking in the Merseyside derby.

Defensively they have largely been sound and this Crystal Palace team don't offer a major threat. Roy Hodgson's men will look to play on the counter, but in hot conditions in the second game back from the three month break, it may not be easy to keep that going when spending a lot of time chasing shadows around the pitch.

It is hard to think Liverpool will be pushing to blow out a Crystal Palace team that have been a stubborn opponent for them and the best selection here may be looking for the home team to win with a clean sheet. Crystal Palace have been difficult to break down, but they are not creating a host of chances and a narrow home win would not be a big surprise.

Burnley v Watford Pick: It was never going to be easy to take on Manchester City with a squad that had been stretched by injuries and those who are about to be out of contract and have yet to agree terms on a new deal. With that in mind it is perhaps not surprising that Burnley suffered the latest of their heavy defeats at the Etihad Stadium, although the players will also admit they were affected by issues beyond their control.

For some ridiculous, boneheaded, moronic reason some Burnley fans decided to pool together to have a plane fly a 'White Lives Matter' banner over the Etihad Stadium at kick off. There is the suggestion they were hoping the players would be disgusted enough to refuse to play during what has been the support given to the 'Black Lives Matter' movement that has spread through the United States and Europe.

Instead the Burnley players have admitted that the banner does not represent them and had also seen them lose some focus on the fixture ahead. It is not an excuse, but it was part of the problem for Burnley who were 3-0 down at half time and who only named seven substitutes instead of nine (and two were goalkeepers).

There isn't much time to prepare for this fixture against Watford who will have had more than 48 hours longer to prepare for the game.

With the motivation high as Watford continue to battle to avoid the drop, Nigel Pearson has to believe his side can take advantage of any tired legs in the Burnley dressing room. His team were the better of the two when facing Leicester City on Saturday and Watford arguably deserved more points than they got, although this is a team that have not been as strong on their travels as they have at Vicarage Road.

The empty stands might help Watford here and hinder Burnley and there seems to be a lot of factors in the favour of the relegation threatened club.

Watford won here last season to snap a 10 game run without a victory at Turf Moor, and the squad looks to be in a better shape. It is perhaps a surprise to see Watford as such a strong favourite here considering the away form, but the time they have had to prepare for this fixture compared with Burnley should give the visitors to make it consecutive wins at this ground.

Southampton v Arsenal Pick: Both clubs are coming off contrasting first weeks during the Premier League resumption after Arsenal lost both League games played and Southampton were big winners at Norwich City.

The fact that some think home advantage is lost with no fans in the Stadium might actually suit Southampton who have been better on their travels than at St Mary's during this season. It is something that they will be hoping for anyway as they get set to take on an Arsenal team who need some momentum before a big FA Cup Quarter Final coming up.

Mikel Arteta has been far from impressed in the manner of both defeats Arsenal have suffered this past week- losing to Manchester City because of defensive errors is still an issue, but conceding in injury time against a relegation threatened Brighton to lose a game Arsenal had led in is almost unforgivable.

There is still hope a strong end to the season will see Arsenal earn a spot back in the Europa League, but they have to be better at both ends of the pitch.

I do think they would create chances against this Southampton team in normal circumstances, but I am a touch concerned Arsenal will use a weaker team knowing how important the upcoming Cup tie is for them. Even then they have some talented youngsters that can expose the defensive shortcomings of this Southampton team and I do think The Gunners will pose problems for the hosts.

However Arsenal have looked messy at the back to say the least and Southampton have shown they can create chances against any opponent. The home team are not under pressure and so are likely to push forward and look to create chances and in players like Danny Ings and Nathan Redmond they have pace and quality in the final third.

I can understand why the layers have made Southampton favourites with some of the uncertainty about the Arsenal team selection which is going to be something to keep an eye on. However The Saints can offer some gifts at the back too and I think this may be another game between these two which features at least three goals shared out.

An early strike may be needed to just open things up in what are likely to be very hot conditions, but if that happens I can see both teams playing with some freedom. That should see them share out three goals on the day as has happened in 3 of the last 4 between these clubs.

Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: Some teams have struggled in the first round of games during 'Project Restart' but both Chelsea and Manchester City have managed to overcome slow starts to really build a groove.

Manchester City have hit eight goals in two games, but they are playing away from home for the first time since losing the Manchester derby back in March. Now they have to face a Chelsea team who came from behind to beat Aston Villa and are looking to keep their top four rivals at bay by picking up what would be an unexpected result.

Games between Chelsea and Manchester City have been a mixed bag in recent seasons, but the last couple of seasons have seen Manchester City win 5 of the last 7 in all competitions.

However when they have visited Stamford Bridge the games have been very competitive and the last 4 have seen both clubs win twice. It was Chelsea who got the better of Manchester City last season and they will have seen the chances that the visitors have allowed in recent away games.

On the other side Manchester City continue to create plenty, but the absence of Sergio Aguero is a blow. Gabriel Jesus isn't a bad replacement, but he is not as clinical as his South American team-mate and Pep Guardiola will need the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne to pick up the slack.

Both clubs have a FA Cup Quarter Final on deck which does cloud things- will the managers rotate their squads and will they perhaps prioritise the Cup game?

Frank Lampard is less likely to do that with Chelsea being chased for the Champions League spots and The Blues do look a big price to win at home. The younger squad might actually benefit from playing in front of an empty Stamford Bridge having been beaten 5 times here in the Premier League and being crushed by Bayern Munich 0-3 in the Champions League Second Round.

Chelsea should be able to create chances, but defensively they have also looked vulnerable and I would not be surprised another 2-1 scoreline between these clubs as we did at the Etihad Stadium earlier this season. My slight lean is towards Chelsea finding a result, but their defence is not trustworthy while Valencia, Liverpool, Manchester United (twice), Bayern Munich have all won here.

Manchester City are arguably the best of the lot to visit, but my selection for the game is the expectation of seeing at least three goals shared out. I expect both teams will score in this one, and neither manager looks like one that would settle for a draw unless the equaliser comes very late on.

Instead I expect both Chelsea and Manchester City to look to be positive and search out the win so expecting to see three or more goals shared out is my most confident selection.

MY PICKS: Leicester City & Over 1.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals

Manchester United Win to Nil

Newcastle United-Aston Villa Under 2.5 Goals

Norwich City-Everton Over 2.5 Goals

Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals

Liverpool Win to Nil

Watford 0 Asian Handicap

Southampton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals

Chelsea-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GW31+

The majority of FPL players looked to be playing their Bench Boost or Free Hit in GW30+ as the game returned, but I had my Triple Captain chip and using it on Kevin De Bruyne has turned out to be a reasonably good decision.

By far the worst call I made in GW30+ was including David Luiz in my team who not only was involved in conceding three goals at Manchester City, but managed to get himself sent off for a lovely - 3 total from two games!

Thankfully the majority of the other decisions paid off as expected and a return of 99 points with a Wild Card, Free Hit and Bench Boost all still to play is good enough for me.

So what is my plan? After careful thought I have decided I will use my Wild Card this week in creating a team that will be strong in both GW31+ and GW33+... With that in mind I would be using the Bench Boost Chip in GW33+ when some of the biggest clubs have good looking fixtures.

I honestly don't see a better way to do this and I then have the option of using my Free Hit either in GW32+ or another one. The team I am selecting looks like it has enough options to cover GW32+ too with some confidence and I am fairly happy with my decisions, while also thinking it may be a good idea to keep a hold of the Free Hit depending on whether any unexpected DGWs pop up.

It is unlikely though so the main plan is to still use the FH in GW32+ although that is something I will be thinking about in the next couple of days with the deadline for that GameWeek set for Saturday morning.

With a Wild Card in play you can imagine that there will be a number of changes right up until the deadline, but you can follow my Twitter page where I will list the final team moments after the deadline for GW31+ has passed.

What I will say is that the teams I am really focusing on to help me build my squad are Burnley, Chelsea, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur and Wolves.

Obviously you have to bring in some players of 'lower' value to give the squad balance and that is where Brighton are a potential option knowing they play at Norwich City on GW33+ and the same goes for the hosts Norwich City with a 'winnable' game that weekend.

Everton are another team who have some decent stats to back their players, but who do face Tottenham Hotspur away from home in the weekend where I want to employ the Bench Boost.

Things will be chopped and changed as I have said, but my first interest was to build big from the back and not go huge with the strikers. Balancing the squad knowing the rotations the managers are using is not easy, but it is the way I want to use the Wild Card in a bid to maximise all of my remaining Chips as I look for a strong finish despite not being to use the Chips in the way I envisioned back in March.

Good luck to all players in the latest GameWeek and I will have more thoughts about GW32+ once I have concluded my Wild Card.

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 23rd)

I am a little bit late with the Tennis Picks on Final day across the four tournaments that were being played through the last seven days.

We also have the beginning of Eastbourne on Sunday with a huge draw being put together in the WTA event there that should give us a pretty good indication as to how Wimbledon will go. Serena Williams and Petra Kvitova are two players who are leading the market without playing a single competitive grass court match so far this year, but both have some serious health issues around them, but there are plenty of big names in action on the south coast of England who will feel they can make a serious impact at SW19 from next Monday.

Below you can see my selections from the Sunday matches and I will be back with fuller threads from Monday. This week the Picks may not cover every day with this being the final week before a Grand Slam, but there should be decent angles to play over the coming days to hopefully add to the season totals ahead of the third Slam of the 2019 season.


MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Julia Goerges + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 30-18, + 19.26 Units (96 Units Staked, + 20.06% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (June 23rd)

I do have to say that Wednesday was a frustrating day for the picks with two of the three losing picks being in a very strong position to cover but both failing to do that. Mikhail Youzhny had a brain freeze in the third set as he needed one more game to cover, while Steve Johnson was clearly the better player against Vasek Pospisil but couldn't earn the break to win a set and instead did it in two tie-breakers.

Frustrating to say the least when you think how close both were, but it seems to be the way things have gone for me since the French Open as we have moved onto the grass courts. Next week is Wimbledon so I am hoping for a turn in fortunes, but hopefully that begins with the rest of the events in Eastbourne and Nottingham where they are hoping to get through the remaining matches and beat the poor weather that has affected all of Western Europe in what is supposed to be the summer months.

The organisers at Wimbledon will be hoping the same, but first let's get through the Quarter Final matches that have been scheduled for Eastbourne and Nottingham.


Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: Both Marcos Baghdatis and Pablo Cuevas needed three sets to come through their Third Round match, but it was the latter who had to put in a much bigger physical exertion in his win. All three sets that Cuevas played against Dan Evans were tight and would have needed some winning, while Marcos Baghdatis had to come from a set down to beat Sam Querrey but in a match that wouldn't have featured too many gruelling rallies.

Baghdatis continues to show his form on the grass courts, although he had to pull out of his Semi Final here last year with yet another injury issue. He does look healthy this time and Baghdatis will believe his experience on the grass will aid him in this match against a player that is Ranked higher than him.

However it has to be remembered that Cuevas has not had the best record on grass through his career and will be forced to work hard for some of the points he earns. The first serve isn't a bad shot, but Cuevas will have to deal with a different movement on this surface compared with his favoured clay and someone like Baghdatis can expose his limitations on grass.

We never can know how well Baghdatis will serve in a match, but he should get cheaper points out of the first serve and I think he can build pressure on Cuevas through the match. After some difficult moments, I expect Baghdatis will be able to come through this Quarter Final with a 64, 64 win.


Andreas Seppi - 3.5 games v Dudi Sela: He might never have been a consistent face in the top 4o of the World Rankings but there is plenty of talent in the Dudi Sela racquet which makes him a dangerous player when he is feeling it. He has been so far this week to reach the Quarter Final in Nottingham, but one of the big downsides of the Sela game is the serve which can be exploited on a surface like this one.

The same argument can be levelled at Andreas Seppi, but the Italian has been serving well in the last couple of weeks and he only suffered a close loss to Florian Mayer, the eventual winner in Halle. There is plenty to like about Seppi's game outside of the serve too as he can be an effective return of serve to make up for the likelihood that he would drop his own.

If he can continue in the way he has been playing over the last couple of weeks, Seppi should have the edge in a contest against a player he has beaten in both previous matches. Those came a long time ago so won't be relevant now, but I still think Seppi has shown a little more behind serve than Sela and that could be the difference in making the Semi Final.

I am expecting to see a few break points for both players, but I am looking for Seppi to be the more solid player and come through 75, 64.


Steve Johnson + 2.5 games v Kevin Anderson: The final Quarter Final in Nottingham looks to be the standout match of the day when Kevin Anderson takes on Steve Johnson.

Both players have shown decent form so far this week and the big key for both Anderson and Johnson is going to be the first serve and setting up their service games from there. The second serve and ability to attack that will also be important to get into a position to have a chance to break serve, and I think this is going to be a match dominated by the serve.

It is Kevin Anderson who leads the head to head, but the last two matches have been close and Johnson snapped a four match losing run against the South African at the end of last season. Johnson has been serving very well so far this week, but he has to maintain that as there will be a lot of pressure put on him by Anderson's own big serve which has been firing.

Anderson is yet to face a break point so far this week and was very good in beating Fernando Verdasco on Wednesday. However I have been impressed with the way Johnson has been playing too although he has to be better when he does get a half chance in this match, better than he was in his win over Vasek Pospisil.

All in all this looks a match that might need tie-breakers to settle things and I will back the American with the games in the pocket.


Kristina Mladenovic - 2.5 games v Monica Puig: A big hitting contest is likely to develop in this Quarter Final and I don't think there is an awful lot between Kristina Mladenovic and Monica Puig. Both look to be rounding into very good form for Wimbledon too judging by the results they have earned so far in Eastbourne and I think this could be a fun match with plenty of winners to enjoy.

Why do I like the Frenchwoman to come through this match though and cover what could be a large amount of games when you consider the form being shown? My main reasoning is that Mladenovic has shown more consistency in her serving this week and I think that will build some pressure on Puig who might not be prepared for the firepower that will be coming back at her in this match.

The grass courts suits both players, but I do think Mladenovic has an edge when it comes to the serve and being able to hold. That is a huge importance on the grass courts and should see her in a position to earn the majority of the break points in this one and thus get into a better position to make the Semi Final.

After a lot of big winners and some heavy hitting, I am looking for Mladenovic to see off Puig 76, 64 in this Quarter Final.


Dominika Cibulkova + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Two players who will be very familiar with one another's game will be looking to impose their will on the other in this Quarter Final. For Dominika Cibulkova it is trying to use her power to hit through the grass courts and put Agnieszka Radwanska on the backfoot, while Radwanska will look to use the conditions to frustrate Cibulkova and extract mistakes from her game.

It is Radwanska who has been able to do that more often than Cibulkova in the past, but the last seven matches have seen the latter win four of those. This year they have split two tight matches and I think Cibulkova has the talent to keep this one competitive after a couple of impressive wins in Eastbourne.

The last couple of years on the grass have not been great for Cibulkova, but her opponent is unlikely to blow her off the court either. There is no doubt that Radwanska has had a lot more success on this surface than perhaps any other and she was a Semi Finalist at Wimbledon in 2015. Since 2012 Radwanska has reached two Semi Finals and a Final at Wimbledon and the surface suits her variation of shots very well.

It should give her the edge in this one, but I also believe Cibulkova is going to give her plenty of questions to answer and is good enough to win a set in this one at least. Taking the games looks the right way to approach this Quarter Final as Cibulkova battles Radwanska to the end and perhaps even wins this match outright with a little luck.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Steve Johnson + 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-4, - 0.38 Units (16 Units Staked, - 2.38% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (June 23rd)

It was a rain affected Monday in the United Kingdom which meant the tournaments in Eastbourne and Nottingham were interrupted through the day and all of the scheduled matches could not be completed.

With Wimbledon beginning next Monday and both of these events hoping to get their tournaments completed by Saturday it does mean that Tuesday is going to see some players having to double duty in Nottingham, while there is also a very full schedule in Eastbourne where the entire Second Round is going to be played.

The rain also meant that only one of the three picks I made on Monday was able to be completed and thankfully came in as a winner. Sam Groth should have made it another winner, but was broken serving for the match despite getting to match point and has to renew his match with Mischa Zverev 7-6, 5-6 and serving to get into a second set tie-breaker.

We are expecting to see a much clearer day for the tennis on Tuesday so all of the picks I make should be completed by the end of the day.


Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: I have made it clear that I think Johanna Konta has some real potential if she can just put together some consistent weeks on the Tour to make her believe a little more about what she is capable of. The grass court season should be a chance for Konta to pick up some valuable points, but she has just come up a little short the last couple of weeks against players who have eventually reached the Final of the events they met at.

Now Konta is going to have to bring her very best form into this Second Round match as she faces Ekaterina Makarova who has shown she is very comfortable on grass over the last few years. She is a former winner in Eastbourne and reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon last season so Makarova will be confident of what she can achieve over the next three weeks.

Of course it can be tough to play your first match on grass which is the situation for Makarova this week, especially against someone like Konta who has plenty of matches under her belt. Konta will know the conditions having won a match here already, but I think Makarova will give her a very big test.

The lefty serve should give Makarova a chance to ease her way into the tournamanet and I think she has enough to find herself coming through in a tight 64, 64 kind of match.


David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: The grass courts should give Marcos Baghdatis his best chance to beat someone like David Ferrer, but the Spaniard is not someone who is overwhelmed by the surface. In fact he has won tournaments on grass prior to Wimbledon in the past and Ferrer will give a full effort in Nottingham as he looks to put some matches together ahead of the next Grand Slam of the season.

Ferrer is the kind of player that will always give his all for every point he plays and he will have a real respect for Baghdatis who pushed Rafael Nadal all the way in a match played in Stuttgart earlier this month. The Cypriot has been very comfortable on the grass through his career, but he isn't the same player of previous years and I think the mental battle of playing someone like Ferrer could hurt Baghdatis.

You have to think Ferrer will be able to get into enough of the Baghdatis service games to cause pressure which can lead to the mistakes to open up the match for him. The Baghdatis first serve is a big shot, but he doesn't usually have a high percentage of those and that will give Ferrer a chance to get involved in rallies where he would expect to win more often than not.

If Baghdatis can shorten the points, he might have a chance to upset the odds, but I think Ferrer will be able to drag enough longer rallies out of the match to move through 64, 64.


Sam Querrey - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Sam Querrey has won the title at Queens Club before so you know this is a player who is comfortable on the grass courts. However, the form has dropped for the American and he had a poor defeat to Grigor Dimitrov last week at Queens having got into a position to win the match.

His game does transfer well onto the grass courts, but being short of confidence hurts Querrey, although I still think he will be too good for Santiago Giraldo. The latter is someone who can perform well on the grass, but he could be put under pressure by Querrey if the American is serving well and that is where Giraldo could potentially be cracked.

Last week Ivo Karlovic was able to do that against Giraldo even though he lost the first set on the tie-breaker and I do think Querrey can be an effective returner on the surface.

The run of losses for Querrey has to be a concern as I think that has dented confidence and was the reason he couldn't finish off Dimitrov last week when he had him down. That would be the biggest concern in backing Querrey in this match, but I think the American will be too good and come through 76, 64.


Victor Troicki - 2.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: The last couple of weeks have been very productive for Victor Troicki and my one concern for him this week in Nottingham is wondering how much fuel he has left in the tank. He looked to hurt his shoulder in the Semi Final loss to Andy Murray at Queens last week, but Troicki looked better on the Sunday and I like his chances to see of Sergiy Stakhovsky.

He might always have a story to tell having been one of the few players to beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon, but that really was the highlight of Stakhovsky's career. It hasn't been a good grass court season for Stakhovsky so far and the form is far below what Troicki has been producing.

The Serb also has a strong record against Stakhovsky having won his last four matches against him, although the last of those was almost three years ago. That isn't that relevant now, but Troicki has been serving very well the last couple of weeks and looks like someone who could make an impact at Wimbledon.

With all the tennis under his belt, I do wonder if there is the same focus for this tournament in Nottingham, but Troicki looks like he is really enjoying his tennis after the long ban hurt his career. I think he will appreciate every opportunity he has and he can be too good for Stakhovsky whose lost a couple of poor matches over the last couple of week.s

MY PICKS: Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victor Troicki - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sam Groth @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units) Leading 76, 56 Rain Delayed
Eugenie Bouchard @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units) Rain Delayed

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.70 Units (2 Units Staked, + 85% Yield)

Wimbledon Day One Picks 2014 (June 23rd)

This time next season, we will have another week between Roland Garros and Wimbledon and I think it is about time that the Tour has extended the grass court season. It's not just for the idea of having additional grass court tournaments, even if I am glad to see Queens/Halle being upgraded to ATP 500 events, but it gives the top players more of a chance to recover mentally from a gruelling clay court season and mentally prepare to change surface.

No longer will Rafael Nadal, who looks to continue his dominance on the clay courts, have to jump on a train/plane out of Paris within twenty-four hours of winning a title so he can take part in a grass court event. It is no surprise to me that Nadal has only won one title on grass outside of Wimbledon and regularly fails to get beyond the Quarter Final stage at warm up events considering the schedule so hopefully even an additional week will make a difference.


The variation in courts between clay and grass are not as great as they once were, but this is still a time of the year when some players come alive and others fail to really get going. The outright picks I have made this year highlights that, although I still feel the big names are going to be there at the end of the next two weeks to pick up titles. You can read my outright picks here.


Over the last month, there have been plenty of very warm days in London, but the forecast for Monday is not the best and there is every chance that we will be seeing the roof in action on the very first day. You can't always trust the forecast though and the hope is that the majority of Monday is a clear day for the players opening their title bids, including defending men's Champion Andy Murray.

I haven't had a great grass court season to this point with a decent first week thanks to Grigor Dimitrov winning at Queens, but a poor follow up week which had a hit on some of the season totals. Hopefully Wimbledon, which has been the worst of my Grand Slam results in each of the last four seasons, can provide more winners this year than it has.

My reasoning behind that is the layers seem to be on the ball a little more at this tournament, while some of the handicaps are harder to cover with a lack of concentration that can't be made up for in the same manner as on the hard courts and clay courts. Good luck to all over the next two weeks though and let's hope for an exciting tournament to at least take away some attention from a fantastic World Cup that has been played to this point.


Marcos Baghdatis v Dustin Brown: Marcos Baghdatis admitted that he took three months off the Tour so he can recharge his batteries, work on his fitness and spend time with his young family. There is no doubt that Baghdatis seems to be much happier within himself and he returned to win a Challenger event on the grass courts before withdrawing from Queens with a shoulder complaint, although the Cypriot admitted that was likely to be down to playing too much tennis in a short space of time.

Out of the matches that are scheduled for Day One at Wimbledon, the one against Dustin Brown looks to be very exciting with both players capable of playing flashy tennis and really getting the crowd behind them. If I had a ground pass for SW19 and not for the main show courts, I would 100% be finding a seat to watch these two players go at it.

Dustin Brown had a very strong run at Wimbledon last year and beat Rafael Nadal in Halle with his powerful serve and net play working very well on the lower bouncing surface and I expect Brown to have success in this match.

However, Marcos Baghdatis has loved playing on the grass in the past and I think he is content in himself and is going to weather the big time tennis Brown plays and counter effectively. There will be times when Brown is unplayable, but he is also capable of making a long run of errors and I think that is where 'Baggy' takes advantage and wins this match.


Mikhail Youzhny - 5.5 games v James Ward: You just know that Mikhail Youzhny is coming towards the end of a very successful career and I have always been a fan of the Russian and the passion and fire he displays on the court. 2014 has been a tough season for Youzhny and it is something of a risk to back him to win this match and cover a fair old number, although I expect his experience and solid grass court game to give James Ward all he can handle.

This is the time of the season that 'Brit Watch' is the game that casual fans of tennis will be playing through the first couple of days at the tournament and James Ward showed at Queens and when qualifying for Roland Garros that he can raise his level.

However, he is just as likely to have his limitations exposed as Donald Young did to him in Eastbourne or Steve Johnson did to him in Nottingham and Youzhny has enough know-how on the grass to do something similar.

It might go four sets, but I can see Youzhny pulling away for a win and he could easily record a 62 or better set along the way.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 5.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: One player who would have been disappointed with his early showing back on the grass would have been Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who lost his second match at Queens. This surface has proved to be one that Tsonga has enjoyed a lot over the years, although it was Wimbledon where he had to pull out a year ago that cost him a few months of 2013.

That does mean the Frenchman doesn't have a lot of points to defend over the next two weeks and he remains a threat on the surface, especially if his serving is on point. The heavy forehand and the ability to get to the net makes Tsonga a real danger to any of the top players, although he usually finds at least one player too good.

I would be surprised if that player is Jurgen Melzer who is another veteran that perhaps is winding down his career. Melzer was a danger on grass simply because of a decent lefty serve and his own aggressive instincts that makes any player dangerous on this surface. I expect he will cause problems for Tsonga, but it has been a match-up that the Frenchman has enjoyed including a comprehensive victory over Melzer at the French Open last month.

It is harder to record the big wins that Tsonga has enjoyed over Melzer recently when it comes to the grass courts, but I can see a 63, 76, 64 scoreline which is generally a fairly straight-forward win for the Frenchman.


Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Mirjana Lucic-Baroni: Mirjana Lucic-Baroni will be remembered for making the Semi Final at Wimbledon back in 1999, but to say she has failed to live up to that potential is an under-statement. There have been issues in her personal life, but you do have to look at her as a player that has failed to achieve what was expected of her.

A retirement at Eastbourne is not the best way to come into the next Grand Slam of the season, but she has the capabilities of pushing the better players on the grass courts, especially one that is coming off a long injury as Victoria Azarenka is.

Azarenka had a tough loss last week, but she showed signs that she is ready to go this week and I think she has the capability of beating Lucic-Baroni with a little room to spare. The former World Number 1 is a tough competitor and I think she has given herself a full amount of time of recovery before returning to competitive tennis and that should pay off.

It is unlikely that Azarenka gets deep into the second week to be honest, but I think she would be too strong in this First Round and come through with a 64, 62 win.


Venus Williams - 5.5 games v Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor: There are a few players that will be glad to know the current grass court season is as short as it is and I would put Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor in that category, but she couldn't have asked for too many tougher First Round encounters.

Granted, Venus Williams isn't the same player that won this title on numerous occasions, but she is still very capable of putting together big performances. Her serve can be effective on the grass and Venus Williams is also comfortable getting forward to the net and putting away a number of volleys so I think she will feel she can dictate the match.

It is going to be tough for Torro-Flor to change that pattern of the match developing more often than not and the young Spaniard may find it tough to really get into this one. Venus Williams should have enough to record a 63, 63 win from this First Round encounter.


Tsvetana Pironkova - 3.5 games v Varvara Lepchenko: I was extremely disappointed with Tsevtana Pironkova's collapse in Eastbourne against Heather Watson as she has proven to be one of the stronger grass court players on the Tour and I expect her to be too good for the American Varvara Lepchenko in this First Round match.

Lepchenko is probably already looking forward to the hard court summer swing back in North America as she hasn't had a lot of success on grass and I think someone like Pironkova is capable of playing the tennis that can send her on her way.

The power off the ground and the comfort level that Pironkova feels on the surface should aid her through the contest and I do think she can record a 64, 64 win and a place in the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tsventana Pirnokova - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Pinnacle (2 Units)

World Cup 2014 Group B Picks (June 13-23)

We are most likely going to see one of the dark horses for the World Cup crown exiting the competition from Group B as reigning Champions Spain are placed alongside 2010 Runners Up Holland, Chile and Australia.

You can find my outright picks from the tournament here

Group A picks will be made here

Group C picks will be made here

Group D picks will be made here

Group E picks will be made here

Group F picks will be made here

Group G picks will be made here

Group H picks will be made here


Friday 13th June
Spain v Holland Pick: A repeat of the last World Cup Final is always going to be a big game, but it seems strange that Spain and Holland have to meet in their opening game of this edition of the World Cup. With Chile and Australia making up the teams in Group B, both Spain and Holland know the importance of getting off the mark with a victory that will give them a very strong chance of making it out of this section, as well as finishing top of the Group to avoid a likely Second Round match with Brazil.

Spain have been the benchmark of international football over the last six years as they have won two European Championships as well as the World Cup, and I am not putting in a great deal of stock in them losing the Confederations Cup last year- in fact, Spain didn't win that tournament which was played ahead of the World Cup in South Africa either, but that worked out well for them.

The addition of Diego Costa, who claims he is fully fit from the injury that forced him out of the Champions League Final after the opening ten minutes, gives Spain a different look than the 'false nine' they used four years ago and in the last European Championship.

Costa might not be everyone's cup of tea (see what I did there?!) but he is strong, has decent finishing and will give the ball playing midfielders the Spanish have something to aim for in the box- the Brazilian born forward has signed for Chelsea and can provide the goals that Spain have sometimes been lacking for all their possession football.

As a Manchester United fan, I am going to be especially interested to see what kind of philosophy Louis Van Gaal brings to the table for Holland who could be vulnerable in this Group. With every Arjen Robben and Robin Van Persie, the Netherlands have a lot of inexperience in the defensive positions and the feeling is the loss of Kevin Strootman limits what Van Gaal wants to do.

The first game of the World Cup can be tough for teams who have the mentality of rather not losing than possibly winning games, but Spain will know they can't afford the same start of four years ago when they were beaten by Switzerland. I can be critical of the possession for possession sake football that Spain can be guilty of playing, but Diego Costa's fitness boost might give them more this time and I expect them to start with a win.


Chile v Australia Pick: Before the draw was made for the World Cup Groups, I was intrigued as to where Chile were going to be placed following some impressive displays in qualification and friendly games. Unfortunately for the South American team, the have been placed in one of the more difficult sections of the draw, although I believe they have the capabilities of surprising either Spain or Holland to move into the Second Round.

Unless Chile win the Group, they would then likely have to play the hosts Brazil, but for now they can concentrate on making the perfect start to the tournament against the overmatched Australian team that are not the force of old.

It has been suggested that Australia are already looking ahead to the Asian Cup that will be hosted by themselves and the draw for the Group inspires zero confidence in the Socceroos. There is a lot of inexperience going to Brazil and I think even earning a point from this Group would constitute a success for the Australians.

That doesn't mean they will play their games with a damage limitation philosophy and the expectation is that Australia will give each game a right go, but that might also see them come unstuck very quickly against the pace of Chile who love playing on the counter attack.

Chile have a lot of quality in their squad, chiefly coming from Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sanchez, and I can see them getting off to the perfect start with a comfortable win to open the Group. That would put a lot of pressure on the team that potentially loses the opening game of the Group between Holland and Spain, and I see the Chileans wearing down Australia and eventually winning by at least a couple of goals.


You could probably count on one hand the number of people who expected Holland to beat Spain in the first game in Group B, but it would have been like searching for a needle in a haystick to find the person who believed it would be as comprehensive as it was.

For all the plaudits the Netherlands deserved to get, the turning point was the big miss from David Silva that would have given Spain a 2-0 lead before half time, especially as Robin Van Persie equalised just a minute later. If Silva scores, I don't imagine Holland come back, so it would be far too quick to rule out Spain featuring in the Second Round.

Chile were very impressive against Australia in the early stages to underline their dark horse tag, but they did come off the boil and it was a nervy second half as the underdogs got close to an equaliser. The final 3-1 scoreline was harsh on the Australians, and a similar performance in their final two games may see them exceed the expectations of losing every game in the Group.


Australia v Holland Pick: There is the sense that the Netherlands are going to be a little over-rated going forward thanks to their stunning win over Spain in the first game at the World Cup, but I still think they are going to be too good for Australia. The latter played well after going 2-0 down to Chile, but the manner of the goals conceded has to be a concern against a team with the counter-attacking ability that the Dutch have shown.

However, I still don't have a lot of faith in the Holland backline which could have seen the team 2-0 down before they made their comeback against Spain and I do think Australia have the work ethic to at least give a good account of themselves.

The problem for Australia is keeping the ball out of their net and their performances over the last nine months suggest that will be the case again in this game. They have conceded six goals to Brazil and France, while Ecuador scored four and Chile were set to score a lot more than the three they managed in the first game of the Group.

Louis Van Gaal is a smart man and will know the importance of finishing top of the Group and won't want to leave that to chance with the goal being to avoid playing Brazil in the Second Round. Another big win on Wednesday against Australia would mean Holland are unlikely to be surpassed by Chile or Spain in the final round of fixtures no matter what those sides do and I do think the Dutch win this one by a couple of goals.


Spain v Chile Pick: I feel like a broken record, but the David Silva miss against the Netherlands sparked the huge turnaround in the result as far as I am concerned- if Spain had moved 2-0 in front, I don't think Holland would have come back, but the fact that the Dutch equalised a minute later turned the momentum irreversibly.

Do I think Spain are now a completely different side than the one I thought could win the World Cup a week ago? No, I think it was a terrible day in the office against the Netherlands which was made all the worse by some poor goalkeeping and I would expect the team that win the European Championships in 2008 and 2012 and the World Cup in 2010 to have a real reaction.

There is no doubt that the team looked a little slow once Holland got control of the last game and Spain have to be worried about a Chile team that have goals in the side and can work the possession they have very effectively.

Chile made a very good start against Australia, but they do look a little vulnerable at the back and the presence of Diego Costa could cause some problems in the air in the manner that Tim Cahill did for Australia. I still expect Chile will be able to score a goal in this game, but I have favoured Spain to beat them and finish above them in the Group and I think the Spanish can find the form that has won so many international tournaments over the last six years.

The market looks a little short for the Spain win on first glance considering the defensive problems highlighted by Holland and the counter-attack ability that Chile have. However, I think both teams will score in a game that Spain end up earning a vital three points to get their World Cup underway.


We knew Group B was going to provide the exit for one of the better teams in the World Cup after the draw was made, but I don't think anyone truly believed there would be a situation that saw the reigning European Champions and defending World Cup Champions Spain get ready to go home after two games.

More defensive mistakes from Iker Casillas left Spain with a deserved 0-2 loss to Chile in the second round of games and, coupled with Netherlands win over Australia, that meant Spain are out with the other two nations both moving through.

Australia have shown a lot of heart in their two losses, arguably more than Spain, and can finish above them in the section if they avoid a loss to the Spanish in their final game. It is a shame that Tim Cahill won't be taking part though as he is suspended after scoring a cracking goal in his final World Cup appearance.

The other game isn't a dead rubber either as the winner of the Chile-Netherlands game is likely to win the Group and avoid Brazil in the Second Round.


Australia v Spain Pick: A dead rubber and the 'end of an era' for a number of the Spain players makes this a difficult game to get a feel for, especially as Vicente Del Bosque is likely to make a number of changes to his first team that let him down so badly at the World Cup.

That should at least bring in some more hunger from the players to end the tournament on a high and they have previous when beating Bulgaria 6-0 in the final Group game at France 1998, a result that meant nothing in the grand scheme of things.

It is unlikely to be that kind of scoreline against this tough and surprisingly resilient Australia team that came to the World Cup with very few expectations, but have surpassed all of those goals. Some suggested Australia wouldn't score at the World Cup, but Tim Cahill has scored a couple of good goals although he will be a big miss on Monday.

I still think there could be goals in the Australia team that have pace up front and play with a direct style that could unsettle Spain- however, they have to be aware of a poor defensive record that has seen the Australians concede six goals in two games and the Spanish attackers given their chance may have some success too.

Three of the four games in the Group have seen at least four goals scored and I think a small interest in backing over 3.5 goals in this one is the call.


Holland v Chile Pick: At the start of the World Cup, I was convinced Chile would beat the Netherlands and knock them out of the Group, but then again I was also convinced Spain would have a real effort at defending the crown they earned four years ago.

This game is still a 'live' one as both teams can top the Group with a win, while the Netherlands have the bonus of being able to finish top with a draw thanks to a superior goal difference. The prize? It is likely going to be avoiding Brazil in the Second Round, although the hosts play later on Monday evening and can 'pick' who they would like to face at the next stage.

That has infuriated Louis Van Gaal, who claims FIFA have an agenda to give Brazil the best possible preparation to win the World Cup, and the next Manchester United manager will also be missing Manchester United's best striker in Robin Van Persie for the game through suspension.

Neither team is capable of sitting back and both will feel topping the Group is their best opportunity of progressing at the tournament as they can avoid Brazil and potentially get into the weaker section of the remainder of the tournament. With the way the tournament is shaping up, the Group B winner could potentially play Mexico/Croatia in the Second Round and Costa Rica/Ivory Coast in the Quarter Finals which I think is a real incentive to top the section.

The onus is on Chile to attack if they want to win the Group, but that might leave them vulnerable to the counter-attack, although I do think Chile can have success against this Dutch defence. The first goal is going to be critical, but I do believe Chile can get that and win this game.

GROUP B PICKS: Spain @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units) versus Holland
Chile - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (4 Units) versus Australia
Holland - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Pinnacle (3 Units) versus Australia
Spain Win and Both Teams to Score @ 3.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit) versus Chile
Australia-Spain Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chile @ 2.80 Ladbrokes (1 Unit) versus Holland

Group B Update: 1-5, - 4.40 Units (12 Units Staked, - 36.67% Yield)