Tennis Picks 2022 (June 24th)

The Wimbledon draw will be made bright and early on Friday morning with the tournament set to begin on Monday- the weather is forecasted for a pretty good two weeks in London and I think it should be a decent third Grand Slam of the season, even after the decision to ban certain nationalities and with the Ranking points removed.

It is a crucial draw for many and I will have a few more thoughts about that on Sunday when I should have the Day 1 Picks thread up.

For now the focus is on rounding out this week and a strong Thursday has put the Tennis Picks in a position to finish with a solid positive number.

All the Semi Final matches are scheduled to be played on Friday with the four Finals set to for a Saturday finish so all players can make their way to SW19 and be ready to compete.

MY PICKS: Maxime Cressy @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 0.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Benjamin Bonzi-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut-Antoine Bellier Over 20.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Bianca Andreescu + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alize Cornet - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 30-22, + 8.98 Units (102 Units Staked, + 8.80% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (June 23-25)

So how is everyone enjoying the return of the Premier League?

There is no doubt that things are not the same as we remember, and it did take a few matches to really build the interest but I do think most will be used to the 'new normal'.

Most importantly I do believe the players will be feeling more accustomed to playing in front of empty stands having done it once, or in some cases twice, although I do think the teams at the bottom of the table are suffering as I expected before the resumption. Without that push from the crowd, it is much harder for those clubs to bridge the talent gap to the sides they are facing and the limp manner in which Norwich City, Bournemouth and West Ham United were beaten at home this past weekend is worrying.

Aston Villa took a single point from two home games, but at least made a much greater effort than those three sides mentioned and I do believe the three relegated clubs will come from the four mentioned.

Things are still tight when it comes to the relegation battle and the race for the top four and European places so the whole outlook could change very quickly. With the fixtures staggered as they are, I do think the pressure will build on clubs in a different manner as you would expect if the schedule had played out as planned before the pandemic took over.

With another GW just a day after the previous one ended, it is another round of FPL that kicks off on Tuesday. The problem all players of the Official Fantasy game will be dealing with is the deadline comes at a time when not all the team news can be put together and that means second guessing things.

I will elaborate further on my plans below the thoughts for how this round of League fixtures will go.

Leicester City v Brighton Pick: Both Leicester City and Brighton are coming off of positive results and will be looking to build the momentum to take into the remaining Premier League games to be played.

For Leicester City it will also push them forward when it comes to a potential FA Cup success as they chase down one of the four Champions League places in the table. The late goal conceded to Watford would have hurt, but Leicester City will be happy with a positive result and the chance to maintain their lead over 5th placed Manchester United with one less game to be completed.

Playing at home should be a little more comfortable for Leicester City even if the early trend around the top European Leagues is that some of the advantage has been eroded without a crowd. I still believe that may affect the lesser talented squads more than the top teams though so I do expect Leicester City to have too much for Brighton on Tuesday in the first game of the latest round of fixtures.

That is no disrespect to a Brighton team coming off a big win over Arsenal and one that has proved to be stubborn to break down away from home in their most 'recent' games. Of course you can't really discuss that 3 game unbeaten run on their travels as form considering the last fixture was played three months ago, but Brighton have shown they can make life difficult so it will be up to the Leicester City players to find the motivation from within rather than from the stands.

The Foxes have won 3 of their last 5 games here in all competitions and during that time they have hit both West Ham United and Aston Villa for four goals. Brighton have shown themselves to be a slightly better defensive side than both of those, but the goalless draw at Wolves was only the third away clean sheet of the season.

Bournemouth and West Ham United both scored at least three goals against Brighton and Sheffield United created enough to believe they deserved more than the single strike in the previous 3 away games The Seagulls played before the draw at Wolves.

Brighton have lost twice in a row here and I think Leicester City will be able to create enough chances to win a game which features at least two goals.

Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United Pick: This is a big game at the top and bottom of the Premier League as Tottenham Hotspur look to ignite a push for a European place and West Ham United try and move clear of the bottom three.

Neither team were at their best this past weekend in home games against Manchester United and Wolves respectively, but I do think the teams will be better for having a game in the legs.

At least Tottenham Hotspur earned a point to remain in touch with 5th placed Manchester United, but Jose Mourinho will know they need more from their remaining eight games to have a chance of getting into the Champions League. More realistic is playing in the Europa League and Spurs will know the importance of that from a financial perspective as they look to repay the debt which came from building this new Stadium.

Chances were not created easily against Manchester United, but Dele Alli is back and West Ham United don't defend nearly as well as Tottenham Hotspur's last opponents. Teams have been able to create plenty against this West Ham United defence and Tottenham Hotspur should be able to do the same.

However it is a rivalry game and West Ham United have had success when visiting Tottenham Hotspur in recent times. They have won 2 in a row in games hosted by Spurs including winning in this Stadium last season and David Moyes will be looking for a big reaction from his team.

The Hammers did look a little toothless in attack against Wolves though and I think Tottenham Hotspur might have more control of the match. The empty Stadium might help the visitors, but Tottenham Hotspur might be able to edge them out narrowly with their greater attacking threats that can be employed.

I feel Tottenham Hotspur will need to score twice to win though considering their own defence has been far from trustworthy and I do think they have enough to do that as they put the pressure on teams above them that play later this week.

Manchester United v Sheffield United Pick: With very little between teams from Chelsea down to Tottenham Hotspur, this was an early fixture which looked like it could be very important for both Manchester United and Sheffield United's dreams of getting into the Champions League.

That is how it looked at the resumption of the Premier League, but Sheffield United have taken a point from a possible six and Manchester United also could only add a point from their opening returning fixture. It means both clubs have slipped behind Chelsea who won at Aston Villa on Sunday and means both Manchester United and Sheffield United need a big result here.

A heatwave hitting the United Kingdom is not going to be helpful for the players despite the 6pm kick off time and it does suggest goals could be in short supply. Temperatures could feel as high as 31 degrees Celsius when this fixture kicks off and that means mistakes could prove pivotal on the day.

With the attacking players short of football, it may also give the chance for defences to be largely on top and especially when you think of the two teams involved in this one at Old Trafford.

However the key difference may be that Manchester United look to have a touch more options in the midfield and attack that could provide a moment of magic to turn things in their favour. Add to that the fact that Sheffield United could be missing as many as three of their regular defensive unit and the chances of mistakes being in the away side more than the home one seem to ramp up.

Chris Wilder will always make his team hard to beat and I won't read too much into the 3-0 loss at Newcastle United as the game was finely balanced before John Egan was sent off to reduce Sheffield United to ten men. Even then I do think the defensive record is perhaps better than it should be with chances that Sheffield United have allowed and Manchester United should punish a more unfamiliar line up that Wilder will have to use.

It won't be easy because Sheffield United are a disciplined team that won't roll over for any team they face. They have not been at their best in the first couple of games and Manchester United have had plenty of time to prepare and I fancy the home side win this one with a clean sheet.

Newcastle United v Aston Villa Pick: Hot weather has to be expected at this time of the year in England, but the heatwave due during the week will only make it harder for players who have had limited match fitness from the first few days of the restart of Premier League Football.

It might mean a slow game develops in the North East where Newcastle United host Aston Villa in what is looking to be a much bigger game for the visitors than the hosts.

That is not to say that Steve Bruce would be happy to lose the momentum picked up in the win over Sheffield United on Sunday. The manager was very pleased with the performance and Newcastle United have a big week in front of them as they host two more matches here, while Bruce himself will be looking to show any prospective new owner that he is the right manager to take Newcastle United forward.

Winning games and finishing in the top half of the Premier League will only add to Bruce's argument and he will be looking to keep the unbeaten run going at St James' Park. Newcastle United have been well organised as they have produced 5 clean sheets in a row at St James' Park and now host an out of form Aston Villa side who have to have had some confidence knocked in the early days of the restart of the Premier League.

A single point and a single goal from two home games is not good enough for Aston Villa who are fighting to get out of the bottom three. They haven't played badly, but Aston Villa continue to struggle to score enough goals or keep enough clean sheets and that is a big worry for any team looking to avoid the drop.

Aston Villa did not score in their last couple of away games which were played three months ago, but the bigger concern for Dean Smith has to be the lack of chances created in those defeats. They have looked better this past week, but breaking down Newcastle United will be far from easy and I think goals may be difficult to find.

The layers are perhaps not seeing things the same way as I expected the 'under 2.5 goals' market to be much shorter than it is. Both teams were involved in high-scoring games on Sunday, but Newcastle United only broke down a ten man opponent, while Aston Villa faced a strong attacking unit of Chelsea.

Neither team will believe they have the same circumstances going into this game and I think we will see two or fewer goals shared out. Before the win over Sheffield United, Newcastle United had seen their previous 4 games finish with one or fewer goals scored, while Aston Villa have seen 3 of their last 5 away from home go the same way.

The last 8 between Newcastle United and Aston Villa have ended with two or fewer goals shared out, while the last 5 between them at St James' Park have ended that way too.

With the heat around and the lack of strong attacks in this one, I think that has to be the most likely outcome of this fixture. I narrowly favour Newcastle United, but will look for a lack of goals no matter the result.

Norwich City v Everton Pick: Both Norwich City and Everton will still feel there are big things to aim for at the end of the 2019/20 season, but you can't help feel this is more important for the home team.

Norwich City were hammered 0-3 by Southampton on Friday and they looked like a team that didn't really believe nine games were enough to avoid relegation to the Championship. Now there are eight left and it is hard to see how Norwich City will be able to pick up enough points if they don't produce a much better effort in their home Stadium.

Defensively they were messy and some rustiness was evident in their attacking play when chances did pop up. Having a game in the legs might sharpen up Norwich City, but this is a team who might have to rely on out-scoring opponents with the defensive injuries they are dealing with through the remainder of the season.

Those injuries will make them vulnerable to an Everton team who will believe they have missed two big opportunities to beat Liverpool this season. The goalless draw on Sunday might have seen Liverpool dominate the ball and the action area, but Everton created the best chances and better finishing would have resulted in a big three points.

Carlo Ancelotti is still convinced a European place is within the grasp of Everton with a strong end to the season and three points here will be important if they can earn them here. Everton have not played well away from home in terms of results, but performances under the Italian have been improved and a bit more luck would have led to better results.

They have created chances, although Everton still look shaky defensively, and I think they will be confident. Having two days fewer to prepare might be an issue for Everton though and it makes me think they are a short enough price to win here which makes it unappealing.

I do wonder if the heat will have a negative impact on the goals markets in the coming days in England, but this is one game where both teams should take risks in order to earn the three points. Neither defence is the most convincing and both Norwich City and Everton do have attacking players that can create chances and score goals.

Before the loss to Southampton, Norwich City were involved in some low-scoring home games, but the defensive injuries balances that out. It was evident in the chances that Southampton created against them, while 9 of the last 11 Everton away games have finished with three or more goals shared out.

I can see both teams hitting the net, but the three points are important enough for both to believe spaces are going to be exploited in the final twenty minutes. That means I will be looking for three or more goals to be shared out between Norwich City and Everton on Wednesday.

Wolves v Bournemouth Pick: Both of these teams were involved in 0-2 scorelines on Saturday, but unfortunately for Bournemouth they were hosting the game against Crystal Palace. On the other hand Wolves were comfortable winners at West Ham United in a game that was lacking some quality until Adama Traore and Pedro Neto were brought on in the second half and sparked Wolves to a successful visit to East London.

They had been in fine form going into the suspension of European Football and Nuno Espirito Santo has to be pleased with the way his Wolves team played in controlling the game on Saturday. This is a team that can find things a little difficult in the final third despite all the aesthetically pleasing football they do tend to play and that is underlined by two goalless draws in their last 4 here.

Wolves are not easy to break down, but they want to be more if they want to be playing in the Champions League next season and this game with Bournemouth does present a big chance for them. Win and they will be 2 points behind Chelsea in 4th and knowing the West London club are hosting Manchester City on Thursday, but any dropped points on Wednesday could be fatal in their bid to earn a Champions League spot through their Premier League finish.

I do think Wolves create chances and in Raul Jimenez they have a striker who scores goals at this level, but I also think Bournemouth will be better than they were on Saturday.

Two early goals knocked the stuffing out of The Cherries and they didn't create an awful lot, but David Brooks was in good nick despite the long lay off. He should be ready to help Bournemouth out here and they will cause problems for Wolves if the home side are slightly off their game, although Eddie Howe's men are hard to trust at the back.

6 straight away Premier League losses can't be easily ignored and I do think the Portuguese players that Wolves have throughout their squad won't be worried about the potential heat the teams will be playing in. Bournemouth concede too many goals and it is hard to see that changing even with the squad bolstered in the three month lay off and so the feeling is that Wolves will win a game that features at least two goals.

In only one win at home this season have Wolves failed to score at least twice while 13 of the last 14 home wins secured in the Premier League have also seen Wolves score at least twice. That includes all 5 played this season and Bournemouth have conceded twice in 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games.

Last season this fixture ended 2-0 and I think that may be the most likely outcome of this one too.

Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: There is little doubt that Liverpool will eventually win the Premier League title, but the next eight games might be all about rebuilding fitness ahead of the 2020/21 campaign. There might be a very short pre-season between campaigns so this may be used as such by Jurgen Klopp whose side are perhaps days away from winning the title.

If Manchester City have dropped points on Monday, Liverpool can be confirmed Champions with a win over Crystal Palace, but Roy Hodgson's men have shown they are not one that will roll over for any opponent.

There were suggestions that the motivation may not be very high for a team in a safe position in the Premier League, but Crystal Palace deservedly beat Bournemouth at the weekend and may still have some European ambitions to fulfil.

It is still a long-shot to imagine that happening, but Crystal Palace will look to be organised and disciplined in what could be very hot conditions at Anfield on Wednesday evening.

Liverpool didn't look their sharpest in the goalless draw with Everton on Sunday and perhaps were fortunate to escape with a point, but they desperately missed the influence of Andrew Robertson and Mohamed Salah. Both could return on Wednesday and that should give Liverpool a bit more spark in the final third which was really lacking in the Merseyside derby.

Defensively they have largely been sound and this Crystal Palace team don't offer a major threat. Roy Hodgson's men will look to play on the counter, but in hot conditions in the second game back from the three month break, it may not be easy to keep that going when spending a lot of time chasing shadows around the pitch.

It is hard to think Liverpool will be pushing to blow out a Crystal Palace team that have been a stubborn opponent for them and the best selection here may be looking for the home team to win with a clean sheet. Crystal Palace have been difficult to break down, but they are not creating a host of chances and a narrow home win would not be a big surprise.

Burnley v Watford Pick: It was never going to be easy to take on Manchester City with a squad that had been stretched by injuries and those who are about to be out of contract and have yet to agree terms on a new deal. With that in mind it is perhaps not surprising that Burnley suffered the latest of their heavy defeats at the Etihad Stadium, although the players will also admit they were affected by issues beyond their control.

For some ridiculous, boneheaded, moronic reason some Burnley fans decided to pool together to have a plane fly a 'White Lives Matter' banner over the Etihad Stadium at kick off. There is the suggestion they were hoping the players would be disgusted enough to refuse to play during what has been the support given to the 'Black Lives Matter' movement that has spread through the United States and Europe.

Instead the Burnley players have admitted that the banner does not represent them and had also seen them lose some focus on the fixture ahead. It is not an excuse, but it was part of the problem for Burnley who were 3-0 down at half time and who only named seven substitutes instead of nine (and two were goalkeepers).

There isn't much time to prepare for this fixture against Watford who will have had more than 48 hours longer to prepare for the game.

With the motivation high as Watford continue to battle to avoid the drop, Nigel Pearson has to believe his side can take advantage of any tired legs in the Burnley dressing room. His team were the better of the two when facing Leicester City on Saturday and Watford arguably deserved more points than they got, although this is a team that have not been as strong on their travels as they have at Vicarage Road.

The empty stands might help Watford here and hinder Burnley and there seems to be a lot of factors in the favour of the relegation threatened club.

Watford won here last season to snap a 10 game run without a victory at Turf Moor, and the squad looks to be in a better shape. It is perhaps a surprise to see Watford as such a strong favourite here considering the away form, but the time they have had to prepare for this fixture compared with Burnley should give the visitors to make it consecutive wins at this ground.

Southampton v Arsenal Pick: Both clubs are coming off contrasting first weeks during the Premier League resumption after Arsenal lost both League games played and Southampton were big winners at Norwich City.

The fact that some think home advantage is lost with no fans in the Stadium might actually suit Southampton who have been better on their travels than at St Mary's during this season. It is something that they will be hoping for anyway as they get set to take on an Arsenal team who need some momentum before a big FA Cup Quarter Final coming up.

Mikel Arteta has been far from impressed in the manner of both defeats Arsenal have suffered this past week- losing to Manchester City because of defensive errors is still an issue, but conceding in injury time against a relegation threatened Brighton to lose a game Arsenal had led in is almost unforgivable.

There is still hope a strong end to the season will see Arsenal earn a spot back in the Europa League, but they have to be better at both ends of the pitch.

I do think they would create chances against this Southampton team in normal circumstances, but I am a touch concerned Arsenal will use a weaker team knowing how important the upcoming Cup tie is for them. Even then they have some talented youngsters that can expose the defensive shortcomings of this Southampton team and I do think The Gunners will pose problems for the hosts.

However Arsenal have looked messy at the back to say the least and Southampton have shown they can create chances against any opponent. The home team are not under pressure and so are likely to push forward and look to create chances and in players like Danny Ings and Nathan Redmond they have pace and quality in the final third.

I can understand why the layers have made Southampton favourites with some of the uncertainty about the Arsenal team selection which is going to be something to keep an eye on. However The Saints can offer some gifts at the back too and I think this may be another game between these two which features at least three goals shared out.

An early strike may be needed to just open things up in what are likely to be very hot conditions, but if that happens I can see both teams playing with some freedom. That should see them share out three goals on the day as has happened in 3 of the last 4 between these clubs.

Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: Some teams have struggled in the first round of games during 'Project Restart' but both Chelsea and Manchester City have managed to overcome slow starts to really build a groove.

Manchester City have hit eight goals in two games, but they are playing away from home for the first time since losing the Manchester derby back in March. Now they have to face a Chelsea team who came from behind to beat Aston Villa and are looking to keep their top four rivals at bay by picking up what would be an unexpected result.

Games between Chelsea and Manchester City have been a mixed bag in recent seasons, but the last couple of seasons have seen Manchester City win 5 of the last 7 in all competitions.

However when they have visited Stamford Bridge the games have been very competitive and the last 4 have seen both clubs win twice. It was Chelsea who got the better of Manchester City last season and they will have seen the chances that the visitors have allowed in recent away games.

On the other side Manchester City continue to create plenty, but the absence of Sergio Aguero is a blow. Gabriel Jesus isn't a bad replacement, but he is not as clinical as his South American team-mate and Pep Guardiola will need the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne to pick up the slack.

Both clubs have a FA Cup Quarter Final on deck which does cloud things- will the managers rotate their squads and will they perhaps prioritise the Cup game?

Frank Lampard is less likely to do that with Chelsea being chased for the Champions League spots and The Blues do look a big price to win at home. The younger squad might actually benefit from playing in front of an empty Stamford Bridge having been beaten 5 times here in the Premier League and being crushed by Bayern Munich 0-3 in the Champions League Second Round.

Chelsea should be able to create chances, but defensively they have also looked vulnerable and I would not be surprised another 2-1 scoreline between these clubs as we did at the Etihad Stadium earlier this season. My slight lean is towards Chelsea finding a result, but their defence is not trustworthy while Valencia, Liverpool, Manchester United (twice), Bayern Munich have all won here.

Manchester City are arguably the best of the lot to visit, but my selection for the game is the expectation of seeing at least three goals shared out. I expect both teams will score in this one, and neither manager looks like one that would settle for a draw unless the equaliser comes very late on.

Instead I expect both Chelsea and Manchester City to look to be positive and search out the win so expecting to see three or more goals shared out is my most confident selection.

MY PICKS: Leicester City & Over 1.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals

Manchester United Win to Nil

Newcastle United-Aston Villa Under 2.5 Goals

Norwich City-Everton Over 2.5 Goals

Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals

Liverpool Win to Nil

Watford 0 Asian Handicap

Southampton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals

Chelsea-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GW31+

The majority of FPL players looked to be playing their Bench Boost or Free Hit in GW30+ as the game returned, but I had my Triple Captain chip and using it on Kevin De Bruyne has turned out to be a reasonably good decision.

By far the worst call I made in GW30+ was including David Luiz in my team who not only was involved in conceding three goals at Manchester City, but managed to get himself sent off for a lovely - 3 total from two games!

Thankfully the majority of the other decisions paid off as expected and a return of 99 points with a Wild Card, Free Hit and Bench Boost all still to play is good enough for me.

So what is my plan? After careful thought I have decided I will use my Wild Card this week in creating a team that will be strong in both GW31+ and GW33+... With that in mind I would be using the Bench Boost Chip in GW33+ when some of the biggest clubs have good looking fixtures.

I honestly don't see a better way to do this and I then have the option of using my Free Hit either in GW32+ or another one. The team I am selecting looks like it has enough options to cover GW32+ too with some confidence and I am fairly happy with my decisions, while also thinking it may be a good idea to keep a hold of the Free Hit depending on whether any unexpected DGWs pop up.

It is unlikely though so the main plan is to still use the FH in GW32+ although that is something I will be thinking about in the next couple of days with the deadline for that GameWeek set for Saturday morning.

With a Wild Card in play you can imagine that there will be a number of changes right up until the deadline, but you can follow my Twitter page where I will list the final team moments after the deadline for GW31+ has passed.

What I will say is that the teams I am really focusing on to help me build my squad are Burnley, Chelsea, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur and Wolves.

Obviously you have to bring in some players of 'lower' value to give the squad balance and that is where Brighton are a potential option knowing they play at Norwich City on GW33+ and the same goes for the hosts Norwich City with a 'winnable' game that weekend.

Everton are another team who have some decent stats to back their players, but who do face Tottenham Hotspur away from home in the weekend where I want to employ the Bench Boost.

Things will be chopped and changed as I have said, but my first interest was to build big from the back and not go huge with the strikers. Balancing the squad knowing the rotations the managers are using is not easy, but it is the way I want to use the Wild Card in a bid to maximise all of my remaining Chips as I look for a strong finish despite not being to use the Chips in the way I envisioned back in March.

Good luck to all players in the latest GameWeek and I will have more thoughts about GW32+ once I have concluded my Wild Card.

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 24th)

Two winners from the three Tennis Picks made from the Finals that were played on Sunday ensured a strong week on the Tour and a bounce back from a disappointing first week of Picks from matches on the grass courts.

To be fair it was more than a bounce back with a very strong return to add to the season totals and this new week has started off well with Johanna Konta comfortably winning her first match in Eastbourne on Sunday too.

Eastbourne has brought together a very strong field from the WTA and this is a tournament that can give someone a lot of momentum to take into Wimbledon which begins in seven days time. The two ATP events being played this week are perhaps lacking some of the star power, but it could be an important week for those taking part. Earning some Ranking points could bode well for tournaments down the line, but none of those player in the two ATP events are really expected to be making an impact at the business end of the next Grand Slam of 2019.


I will be looking to keep the momentum going for the Picks into Wimbledon and pick up from where I left off on Sunday.

Below you can see my selections from the Monday tennis and I have updated the season totals as well as the weekly totals from the two venues running tournaments this week. The Johanna Konta pick that was a winner on Sunday will go down in the weekly totals for the events being run in Antalya and Eastbourne this week.


Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 games v Mihaela Buzarnescu: Both Jelena Ostapenko and Mihaela Buzarnescu have had difficult twelve months on the Tour which means neither is going to head to Wimbledon as a Seeded player. Things may change if players ahead of them can't compete in SW19, but both players will be looking at their last year and believing there is plenty of room for improvement.

Jelena Ostapenko showed some very strong signs in Birmingham last week as she prepares to defend her Semi Final run at Wimbledon from 2018. A strong run will at least prevent a significant drop down the World Rankings and wins over Iga Swiatek and Johanna Konta will make her feel better about her game.

It is one that should work well on the grass courts, although there are still some big inconsistencies that need ironing out if Ostapenko is going to fulfil the potential she clearly has. Two years ago she won a Grand Slam title at the French Open so some will say she is more than potential, but for me the Latvian has not kicked on as you would imagine and she is still playing the kind of tennis that has very little margin for error.

She will know all about the difficulties Mihaela Buzarnescu will pose having split four matches two apiece in the last eighteen months. However the one sole meeting on the grass between Ostapenko and Buzarnescu ended with a very routine win for the former last year here in Eastbourne.

It was during a time when Buzarnescu was playing some of the best tennis of her career, but she has struggled to find those levels throughout 2019. The Romanian is playing only her second grass court match of the season after going down to a one-sided defeat to Karolina Pliskova last week in Birmingham, and she is going to have to be a lot more convincing on the return if she is going to win this match.

I do think it will be a closer match because Ostapenko's serve is one that can be vulnerable when she is not feeling at her best. With that in mind Mihaela Buzarnescu should have some successes on the return which she did not manage last week, but I would also expect Ostapenko's aggression to be a deciding factor in the match and she can work her way to a solid looking win.

Covering the handicap won't be straight-forward, but I will look for Ostapenko to do that with the confidence she should have earned from her run in Birmingham. I think she will have the superior return on the day and the Latvian has had more success on the grass than Buzarnescu which should translate to a place in the Second Round.


Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: Tennis is one of those sports where players can quickly sink down the World Rankings if they hit a poor run of form and that is what has happened to Daria Gavrilova. The Australian has been inspired by the performance of compatriot Ashleigh Barty who is the newest Grand Slam Champion and World Number 1, but Gavrilova needs to dig in if she is going to reverse the form of the last twelve months.

This week Gavrilova has got into the main draw of Eastbourne as a 'Lucky Loser', while the draw could have been much kinder to her.

In recent years Daria Gavrilova has struggled on the grass courts anyway so this is perhaps not the perfect time of the season for her to try and turn around her form. She was a dominant winner in the first Qualifier here, but Gavrilova won just three games in the second Qualifier and the second serve is massively vulnerable on the surface.

The opponent in front of her looks a difficult one too as I look to get behind Anastasija Sevastova who had a decent run to the Semi Final in Mallorca last week. It has to be said that Sevastova has tended to play her best grass court tennis in Mallorca and her results away from that tournament have been far less impressive, but I do think she may match up well with Gavrilova in this First Round match.

Her serve is also one that can be attacked on the grass courts, but I think she has the edge over Gavrilova when it comes to the second serve and the way Sevastova is able to protect that shot. It is a big difference maker within a match when you can get away with a few more second serves than your opponent and I also think the Latvian has the kind of aggression on the return that also gives her the advantage.

Daria Gavrilova did reach the Quarter Final in Eastbourne as a Lucky Loser in 2015 and that has to be respected. But her recent results have not been productive enough to believe she can keep this match as competitive as the layers believe and I will back Anastasija Sevastova to show the superior second serving and returning to work her way to the breaks needed to cover.


Elina Svitolina - 2.5 games v Alize Cornet: A poor loss in Birmingham last week after a disappointing clay court portion of the season has to be a concern for Elina Svitolina fans as we approach the third Grand Slam of the 2019 year. Her health has been in question, but I think this is the kind of match that Svitolina will be looking at as a good chance to get her season turned back around.

A 14-10 record in 2019 is not what anyone expected of Svitolina after she won the WTA Championship Finals for the first time at the end of 2018. Now she is looking to put some wins on the board during a month on the grass courts despite Svitolina not really having the impact she would have wanted at this time of the season in recent years.

The numbers in general from Svitolina have hardly been that impressive, but you can see she has her most difficulty putting things together on the grass. The Ukrainian would love to get more joy from the serve to really start becoming a threat on the surface, while her returning is significantly poorer than on either the clay or the hard courts.

However I do think Svitolina can be backed in this Second Round match when she takes on Alize Cornet who has also not been able to find her best tennis on the grass courts. She did have a solid win over Heather Watson in the First Round, but I think that has as much to do with the poor form Watson has been displaying for twelve months as it has about Cornet suddenly finding form on the surface.

Elina Svitolina has won the last four matches between these players and she also holds a win over Alize Cornet on the grass in Birmingham in 2018. Those four matches have seen Svitolina dominate the returning numbers and she can certainly do that here having played well enough on that side of her game in Birmingham last week.

Much will depend on how much success Svitolina can have on the second serve in this one- if she can get enough first serves in play it shouldn't matter so much, but I do think the Ukrainian can capitalise on the returns off the second serve more than Cornet.

The layers have their doubts about Svitolina which means we are getting a decent spread in this match. While it is a risky play considering the recent performances of Elina Svitolina, I will back her to win this one.


Steve Johnson-Reilly Opelka over 10.5 first set games: We haven't seen Reilly Opelka since the French Open, but the improvements he has made over the last twelve months means he will be entering Wimbledon thanks to his Number 61 World Ranking.

He didn't play any grass court tennis in 2018, but the 'new John Isner' should be someone who can cause problems for whoever he faces on the surface. Two years ago Opelka held 90% of the service games he played on the grass as he compiled a 3-3 record, but the American's numbers are heavily leaning towards his serving.

Back in 2017 he broke in only 8% of return games on the grass, while Opelka is at 11% when you look at his numbers across the last twelve months on all surfaces. At 6'11 in height it is no surprise that his return is as potent as it is and I would expect Opelka to give Steve Johnson plenty to think about in this First Round match at Eastbourne, although the lack of grass court tennis in the last two years is a concern.

Steve Johnson has become very familiar on the surface, although he has had a difficult last two weeks with some tough draws to face. Losses to Gael Monfils and Alexander Zverev around a win over Philipp Kohlschreiber is a difficult run for Johnson to have negotiated and his numbers have been dented by the tough matches he has had.

Both the service and return numbers are someway down on 2018 when Johnson had some real success on the grass, but I do think the higher Ranked American in this First Round match can enjoy better success in this one. I do think Johnson will be able to run through some service games to improve the numbers produced in 2019, but I think Johnson is going to struggle when it comes to the return and that has led me to my pick.

With the way both Johnson and Opelka can serve, I would expect break points to be at a premium in this match. Early on you would think both players are going to have too much pop on the serve to give too many opportunities to the other and I do think we are going to come very close to a tie-breaker to separate them in the first set.

The very opening of the match is perhaps when someone will be caught out cold and I am not anticipating a lot of breaks of serve in this one. With both capable of serving effectively and neither being a particularly productive returner I will look for this match to reach at least 5-5 in the first set.


Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: When you think of players that are going to be looking forward to the grass court season you probably wouldn't think of either Nicolas Jarry or Pablo Cuevas. At least over the last twelve months Jarry has decided to give himself a chance of securing some solid grass court tennis compared with Cuevas who played at Wimbledon without any warm up tennis twelve months ago.

Nicolas Jarry has shown he can produce some effective grass court tennis in 2018 and 2019 and his win over Stefanos Tsitsipas in Hertogenbosch has to be respected. He failed to Qualify for the main draw in London last week, but both losses Jarry has had on the grass over the last couple of weeks have been in tight matches.

That does bode well for him as he heads to Eastbourne for this final warm up tournament before Wimbledon gets underway. The Chilean has won at least 66% of his service points on the grass in 2018 and 2019, while he has held 82% and 83% of service games played in those years respectively.

You have to respect the serving that Pablo Cuevas has been able to produce n the grass courts in recent years, but he has struggled significantly on the return of serve. No one is going to confuse Jarry with an exceptional returner, but he has produced better numbers than Cuevas when you compare them in recent years, although both have small samples at play.

In 2016 Pablo Cuevas did surprise his way to a run to the Final in Nottingham which was then the tournament played before Wimbledon begun. However the Uruguayan was only breaking in 12% of return games on the surface in that season and I do think Nicolas Jarry can edge him out in what could be a match in which the serves dominate.

I do think one or two pivotal moments could swing this match, but Nicolas Jarry's motivation to play on the grass could be higher and make all the difference on the day. Both players will be looking to rely on their serve and I do give the narrow edge to Nicolas Jarry on both serving and returning and enough to want to back him to get through this match.

MY PICKS: Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson-Reilly Opelka Over 10.5 First Set Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0 , + 1.66 Units (2 Units Staked, + 83% Yield)

Season 2019: + 91.97 Units (1104 Units Staked, + 8.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 24th)

Another week on the Tennis Tour is about to be put into the books with the four events this week all having their Finals played on Sunday.

We also have the beginning of the tournament in Eastbourne which is going to be the final preparation for players before the third Grand Slam of the season begins at Wimbledon in eight days time.

Last week was another strong one for the Tennis Picks to move this season into a strong positive position. One more this week will give me the kind of momentum I would like to take into Wimbledon and I am looking for a good start to open up the week which begins on Sunday to ensure the Finals are ready to be played next Saturday.


Donna Vekic - 3.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: The First Round begins at the WTA event in Eastbourne on Sunday and I do think Donna Vekic is capable of getting the better of Yulia Putintseva in this match.

You always have to credit a player for winning a Qualifier to get into the main draw and Putintseva is coming in off a surprisingly strong showing at the French Open. However it has to be said that Putintseva is not at her best on the grass courts and even a win in a Qualifier is not going to convince me she has suddenly figured things out on a difficult surface to master.

One of the problems for Putintseva is she has a serve which won't produce a lot of free points on the grass courts and it is a shot that opponents can attack from the off. Donna Vekic will look to do that in Eastbourne and she has been returning well enough on the grass in 2018 to think she will have considerable success when getting after Putintseva.

There would have been more wins put up by Vekic if she had served slightly better in her matches on the grass this season, but losses to Johanna Konta and Elina Svitolina are hardly big disappointments on this surface. Those players are opponents who can challenge the Vekic serve, but it may be a much bigger challenge for Putintseva who has been a poor returner on the grass in recent years.

Putintseva did return well to beat Christina McHale in the Qualifiers, but her numbers in recent years have been some way short of the standard that she will need in this one.

I would expect the Vekic serve to be good enough to keep Putintseva at bay in this match and I think she is a capable returner. It may be tough for Vekic to maintain the level of success she has had returning on the grass in 2018, but I do think she can keep that going here as she beats Putintseva and moves through to the Second Round with a win and cover.

MY PICKS: Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 25.84 Units (953 Units Staked, + 2.71% Yield)

World Cup 2018 Group Picks (June 19th-24th)

The World Cup has produced some memorable moments already with a classic match between Portugal and Spain the highlight of the opening games played, at the time of writing at least.

England's late winner over Tunisia did capture the imagination of the nation considering some of the issues the favourites have had in the opening Group games with Argentina, Spain, Germany and Brazil all failing to win their first Group matches despite opening the tournament as four of the top five favourites in the outright markets.

None of those nations should be panicking right now, but it just goes to show how well England did to break down Tunisia and deservedly pick up the three points with one of the better all around performances produced so far.

In this thread I will place all the Group Picks from the second round robin of games which can be the pivotal games as far as qualification for the Last 16 of the World Cup Finals are concerned.


Tuesday 19th June
Russia v Egypt Pick: The World Cup opened with the hosts hammering Saudi Arabia 5-0 and that has left a few more options on the table for Russia as far as this game is concerned.

At the beginning of the tournament it was felt Russia and Egypt were going to be fighting it out for the second Last 16 spot behind Uruguay and that remains the case. I don't want to go overboard about Russia's win over Saudi Arabia as the Asian Qualifiers looked distinctly short of the quality required at this level, while Russia scored their last three goals relatively late on to produce the 5-0 win.

That margin of victory eases the pressure on Russia, especially after seeing Egypt lose 0-1 to Uruguay late in the second game in Group A. Where a point might not have been what they were looking for from this game prior to the tournament, Russia should be very much happy to do that now knowing they have such a strong goal difference to fall back upon.

If Uruguay expectedly beat Saudi Arabia, the point may also mean Russia are in a comfortable position to avoid defeat to the top team in the section which would also guarantee a place in the Last 16. It is going to take a huge effort from Egypt to pick themselves up from the late loss to Uruguay even if Mohamed Salah is back in contention for a starting spot having failed to even come off the bench last Friday.

Russia look short at the prices to win this match as far as I am concerned, even if Egypt could leave spaces to exploit if chasing the game late on. It is easy to get carried away by Russia's performance against Saudi Arabia, but I think this is a much more difficult challenge for them and they may realise the importance of avoiding defeat rather than overcommitting and being beaten.

Having a small interest in the draw looks the way to go about this match, a result which would almost put the hosts through to the Last 16.


Wednesday 20th June
Portugal v Morocco Pick: There were contrasting emotions for Portugal and Morocco out of the first games in Group B as Portugal came from behind to earn a late equaliser against Spain hours after Morocco conceded an injury time goal to lose to Iran.

The draw in the other game means Morocco are far from out of the World Cup Finals, but obviously there is a blow in losing to what is considered the 'weakest' team in the section. Facing two big European nations in the final two games is a tough spot for Morocco, but a win would put them in a strong position going into the final game against Spain.

Beating Portugal looks a tough task for Morocco who looked very good against Iran and made all the running, but there was a little lack of quality in the final third which is a worry. Now they face two more tough defences and it won't be easy for Morocco to create great chances like they had against Iran.

Lacking composure in the final third will be a tough spot from which Morocco could earn the result they need to prolong their chances of earning a Last 16 spot in the World Cup. A defeat would guarantee Morocco are going home at the end of the next week, while a draw would mean having to beat Spain in the final Group game.

Morocco will have to take chances in this one against the European Champions and they need to do a better job containing Cristiano Ronaldo than Spain managed last Friday. Ronaldo remains the key figure for Portugal, but there were some nice attacking moments around the World Player of the Year which will be encouraging to the fans who want a deep World Cup run.

Portugal may have had to ride their luck to get a result against Spain, but a similar level of performance should be good enough to beat Morocco who will have to take chances. I expect Morocco will look to sit in deep initially and try and counter Portugal, but a draw is not really a great result for them and I think that means Portugal should have more opportunities to counter them and earn the three points that will give them every chance of making it out of the Group.

I did have some decent hopes for Morocco prior to the tournament, but the loss in the opener has put them in a very tough position. If they had won they could have maintained shape in this one and tried to frustrate Portugal, but the defeat means Morocco have to take chances in this one and I think the European team punish them.

There is a worry that Portugal are a cautious team by nature that they sit back on a narrow lead and potentially get caught late, but I think they are more likely to find something on the counter attack with the pace they have in forward positions. Backing Portugal to win and cover the Asian Handicap is my pick from this Group B game.


Uruguay v Saudi Arabia Pick: This looks to be a mismatch on paper especially if Saudi Arabia are anything as bad as they were in the opening World Cup Group game.

They are a team that did not play well away from home in the Qualifiers and that has been shown up in Russia already when battered 5-0 by the hosts. The defending was almost criminal with so many mistakes made at the back that were exploited by Russia and both Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani must be licking their lips as both bid to get their World Cup scoring off the mark.

Both had chances in the opener for Uruguay, but it was a central defender who helped Uruguay beat Egypt with a late winner. The Egyptians can be frustrating defensively, but Uruguay did have the chances to win that game much earlier than they did and if they can pick up from where they left off I do like Uruguay to win this one comfortably.

In a friendly prior to the World Cup they beat Uzbekistan 3-0 and I would imagine Uruguay are good enough to match that margin of victory again. It will mean their final game with Russia is almost a dead rubber, but Uruguay will be looking to win the Group and will know goal difference could be a potential tiebreaker if Egypt have beaten Russia the day before.

There does look a clear difference in quality and I expect Uruguay to start much better than they did in the 1-0 win over Egypt. Backing Uruguay to win and cover the Asian Handicap is the play knowing the stake will be returned if they only win by a couple of goals on the day. Personally I expect a three plus margin of victory so backing Uruguay on the Asian Handicap looks a no brainer for me.


Iran v Spain Pick: After some difficult moments in the first half, Iran's manager Carlos Queiroz must have given himself a pat on the back with a game plan that produced a clean sheet and then a win with the only shot on goal in the second half. That is only the second World Cup win for Iran and one that means they can set up exactly as they like against the two European nations they finish up the Group with.

First up is Spain who showed immense quality going forward against Portugal in the 3-3 draw last Friday, although they will want better from the defensive areas of the pitch. That defence may not be challenged as much as they were by Cristiano Ronaldo and company a few days ago though and instead the onus will be on Spain to break down what is likely to be two banks of five in front of them.

No one should blame Iran for that as they will know a point here would be a real boost and one that could potentially put them in line for a place in the Last 16. Four years ago they frustrated Argentina before conceding an injury time goal to Lionel Messi, but I expect a similarly organised defensive unit who will look to prevent Spain from picking their way through them.

There will be some threat from Iran with the pace they have in forward areas, but the game plan will mean they are likely to sit deep and try to grind out a result. I can see the forwards getting isolated the longer the game goes on and Iran will look for set pieces to make an impact on this one, but ultimately the game will be dictated by Spain.

Queiroz is someone who will organise Iran to be a difficult team to break down so I am not anticipating this will be easy for Spain. However I did like the way Spain reacted to the loss of their manager in the overall performance against Portugal and I expect that will be good enough to see them break down this Iran team.

With Diego Costa up front, Spain have a different way to attack the Iran defence than simply passing them to death as they would have done when winning the World Cup in 2010. We saw that impact in the game with Portugal and I think Spain will be able to work their way through Iran as Morocco did and I like the European team to win this by at least a couple of goals.


Thursday 21st June
Denmark v Australia Pick: At the start of Group C I thought France was going to be the team who likely dominate things and then it would be Peru and Denmark who fight it out for the second place.

The Danes rode their luck at times to somehow come away with a 1-0 win over Peru in the opening game, but that isn't a guarantee they are going to make it through the section. While it is a big three points, Australia showed enough in their opening defeat to France to think they can make Denmark think about things in the second game in the Group.

With France still to play in the Group, Denmark may not be able to afford to settle for a draw as much it may seem, especially if Peru can either upset France. Even if they don't, a draw leaves the door open for Australia who have the kind of quality from set pieces that makes them very dangerous.

I do question the attacking quality of both of these teams, but they have shown they can create chances and take the opportunities when they come. I expect the same to happen here and I would not be surprised at all if both teams score in this one with the Australian team likely having to take a few more risks than Denmark.

However I am going to take it a step further and back at least three goals to be shared out between them on Thursday afternoon. Denmark showed some real vulnerabilities at the back against Peru who should have scored at least one, but possibly two goals with the clear chances they had, while the Danes also had some quality going the other way.

This Australia team have been used to scoring and conceding and they continued that in the opener against France. They will cause some problems, but I think Australia are a team who are still very vulnerable at the back as they showed in some of their bigger World Cup Qualifiers and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


France v Peru Pick: Anyone who thinks Peru were not hard done by in their opening World Cup game must have been watching a different game to me as I thought they were the better team when they faced Denmark. The defeat has left them in a difficult position in the Group when going up against the favourites in this section in the second game and Peru will know exactly what they need to give them a chance to make it through to the Last 16 prior to kick off.

In reality Peru would like to see Australia beat Denmark which would mean Peru are alive in the final round robin of games in the Group regardless of what happens here. That would also give the players the chance to express themselves against France in this game knowing they can play with the freedom of still having a chance of progressing from the Group no matter what.

However any other result than an Australia win would mean Peru have to find a result against France and I think that is going to be difficult for the South American nation who have been a revelation over the last twelve months. I don't doubt Peru can create chances against a France defence that looked nervous when facing Australia, but defensively Peru looked like they could struggle when facing the kind of attacking talent they will see in this fixture.

France should be playing with more freedom than they did against Australia as they perhaps started the tournament nervously. A win will have settled those nerves a little bit and this team is about as good as any Peru would have faced in Qualifying.

Peru did beat Uruguay in the World Cup Qualifiers and drew with Argentina twice, but Brazil managed to get the better of them in both home and away Qualifiers. I think the style of play will suit France much more than Australia's style which was set up to first contain France.

In this one I expect Peru will look to get the ball down and take the game to France and I think it will be an entertaining game in the Group. Ultimately I think France will have a little too much strength overall for Peru and I think they will show much better than in their win over Australia.

With the attacking threat that both teams can possess, I would be surprised if a single goal is enough for France and I will back them to win a game which features at least three goals shared out at odds against.


Argentina v Croatia Pick: Coming into the World Cup Argentina were considerable favourites to beat Croatia but the results in the opening Group game means they have drifted to odds against in some places.

They still look short as far as I am concerned when you think how much panic set in at the back whenever Iceland attacked Argentina in the first half. It was no surprise Iceland perhaps drifted backwards in the second half as they protected what score they had, but the lack of clear chances fashioned by Argentina will be a concern too.

I worried for Argentina prior to the start of the tournament and nothing much has changed my mind. This fixture is much tougher than the opener because Croatia will have a midfield that can control things and they should have a little more quality further up the pitch than Iceland which can give a vulnerable Argentina defence a lot of problems.

On the other hand the attacking intent of Croatia's should be much greater than Iceland's too and that should mean a little more space for the Argentina attackers which is where the strength of the team lies. Argentina will need more from Lionel Messi, but they also need some of the other talent in those areas to step up and show they can support Messi instead of relying on him to create the magic on his own.

Both teams to score is not the outrageous price it was for Argentina's first game, but at odds against that still looks very generous in this one. You also have to say Argentina look very short to win the game considering the problems they have been having for some time now and Croatia looking as good as they did in the first game as well as having some real quality in midfield who can dictate the tempo of this fixture.

For those who like the big prices, Croatia to win and both teams to score is a massive 9.00!!

However I think we should keep things simple here- I think both teams will score and I also think Croatia will avoid defeat. The last two friendly games between these nations have both featured at least three goals and I think the situation here means we could see an open game on Thursday with both teams having enough about them to combine for three or more goals.

1-1 will suit Croatia, but Argentina would be left very vulnerable if the result goes against them in the other Group game between Nigeria and Iceland and I think the onus is on the South American nation to attack. That is all well and good, but their defence looks vulnerable enough already and I think Croatia could exploit them on the counter attack if Argentina take too many risks.

We have to respect the attacking talent Argentina have too which makes them a threat to score the goals needed to win the game, and I think backing at least three goals shared out looks a big price.


Friday 22nd June
Brazil v Costa Rica Pick: There are some more concerns around the fitness of Neymar who had to limp out of a training session this week but I would expect the Samba star to take his place in the starting line up. It is a big day for Brazil who look to get back on track in the Group having drawn 1-1 with Switzerland in the first game, but they will need a better all around performance from the team.

One of my criticisms of the performance was the way Neymar was trying too hard and thus making some poor decisions with the ball. He would dribble when he should pass, pass when he should shoot or shoot when there were other options around and I think that is the pressure most Brazilian players feel after the way the 2014 World Cup finished.

Neymar needs to settle down a little bit and I think Brazil will be alright with the players they have in the squad.

Even though not at their absolute best, Brazil did create enough chances to steal the win over Switzerland and there won't be any panic. They are facing what looks to be the weakest team in the Group after Costa Rica were beaten 0-1 by Serbia and a similar level of performance could see them really struggle.

While Costa Rica had their moments, defensively they looked out of sorts and I think they will find it tough to contain this Brazil team who have a game under their belt in Russia. Even if Neymar is unable to take part, I think Brazil have plenty of players who can produce at this level to help them not only win, but win with some comfort.

Costa Rica took a couple of heavy losses in their final international friendlies in preparation for the World Cup and they could have lost by a significant margin against Serbia if the latter had taken the chances that came their way. I don't think Brazil will be as loose in the forward areas as Serbia were, especially not after missing some decent chances against Switzerland, and I will back Brazil on the Asian Handicap.


Nigeria v Iceland Pick: Neither Nigeria or Iceland won their opening World Cup game in 2018, but there is a completely different feel in both squads going into the pivotal second game.

While Nigeria looked as poor as any team in the World Cup Finals with a lack of intensity meaning they were comfortably dismissed by Croatia, Iceland have shown plenty of heart and determination to earn a 1-1 draw with Argentina.

It means the situation is much clearer for Nigeria who know they will be out of the tournament if they lose this game while they will be on the brink of elimination with a draw. With Argentina the remaining game after this one, anything other than a win would likely see the end of Nigeria's ambitions in Russia which would be a huge disappointment to their fans around the world.

Iceland may feel they need to win this game too, but they have a little more room for error knowing they have beaten Croatia already in the World Cup Qualifiers. However they won't want the pressure of being in a 'must win' situation in the final round of Group games so the win is going to be important to Iceland too which means we have the ingredients for a very positive match.

As well as Iceland have defended as a unit, they will offer up some chances and Nigeria have pace and better quality in the final third than they showed against Croatia. You have to think they will have an all around better performance anyway as no team can be that poor twice, while Nigeria will have seen a much changed Ghana score twice in a recent friendly in Iceland.

On the other hand Iceland will be very much believing they can create chances against a lacklustre Nigerian team and I am leaning towards the European nation finding the win in this one. However I don't think they will have it all their own way considering the number of goals Iceland have been conceding in recent months and the layers may be underestimating the kind of performance I expect Nigeria to make all over the pitch.

Both teams to score is odds against, but I am going to take it a step further and back at least three goals to be shared out. I do think both teams will have their chances to score and expect both to do that, but the situation means the 1-1 is not an ideal score for either team and so I can see both teams taking chances to try and win this fixture.

If the Argentina-Croatia game is a draw on Thursday you may want to consider changing your pick to both teams to score, which should be possible by laying off this selection on one of the more popular exchanges out there.

However I am anticipating there being a winner in the other game and that should mean these two teams are well aware of the importance of the three points here and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


Serbia v Switzerland Pick: Most expected Brazil to run away with the Group with these two nations fighting it out for second place between them, but the opening games results means it is Serbia who are in pole position to make it through to the Last 16.

A win on Friday will put Serbia into the Second Round at the World Cup but any other result means Switzerland are likely favourites to at least finish above the Serbs in the Group. The point earned against Brazil is a priceless one for Switzerland who are a team who punch above their weight, but they need to back up that performance having failed to get out of the Group in 2010 despite beating Spain in the opening game.

That was an upset result against the favourites to win the World Cup and they have done the same in 2018, but the expectation is that Switzerland can work their way through to the Last 16.

They will be looking to expose some of the defensive vulnerabilities that Serbia displayed in the win over Costa Rica who were punished for a lack of composure in the final third. The defensive play was always a big concern for Serbia heading into the tournament, but Switzerland have to find more from the forward areas with goals a problem for them.

I do think Switzerland will get opportunities from set pieces and I do think they can cause Serbia one or two questions that they could find tough to answer. However I also expect Serbia to continue attacking with the verve they showed in the opening game and there is some real talent in the final third which makes Serbia an interesting proposition in this tournament.

They created some huge chances against Costa Rica but they also lacked some composure when the opportunities came their way. I would expect better from Serbia when those chances come in this game and I think this could be a better game than it perhaps looks like on paper.

Both teams will likely take risks as the importance of the three points won't be lost on them. The draw would definitely suit Switzerland more than Serbia so expect the latter to make the running which could leave spaces to be exploited by Switzerland and I am going to back this game featuring at least three goals on Friday evening.


Saturday 23rd June
Belgium v Tunisia Pick: The opening 35 minutes of the Tunisia match with England could have seen the African nation down by two or three goals, but they settled into the match and perhaps feel a little unfortunate to have been beaten as late as they did.

In truth it was a deserved win for England as Tunisia looked to defend in numbers and frustrate their opponents in the second half, but it was a wastefulness in front of goal which really hurt England.

The Tunisians cannot expect the same from Belgium who are one of the higher scoring nations coming out of Europe and who found a way to wear down and beat Panama 3-0 in their opening Group game. Belgium were far from at their best in that game, but I am going to put that down to nervousness and I expect they will be much better in this fixture as they were against Panama once taking the lead.

With the quality Belgium have in the forward areas they will certainly feel they can match the chances that England created when they faced this team. Tunisia won't make it easy for Belgium, but they don't have a lot of threat going the other way and I expect Belgium to dominate the ball and find a way to grind down the Tunisian defence.

There were also some real concerns for Tunisia whenever England got a set piece or corners too and that could be the case again when you think of the quality of delivery that Belgium have. They also have a big team who can cause problems from those set pieces and I do think Belgium could profit as England did.

In this one Tunisia will likely have to take a few more risks too as they look for a positive result and everything points to Belgium winning and by a margin that slightly betters England's win over Tunisia. With the sides settled into the tournament after putting one game in the books I think Belgium begin much more assured than they did against Panama and I am going to back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


South Korea v Mexico Pick: There wasn't a lot of hope for a deep run at the World Cup Finals for South Korea prior to the tournament and those hopes would have lessened considerably off the back of the 0-1 defeat to Sweden.

A line up that was still not settled and a manager who didn't know his best formation was not ideal preparation for South Korea and the team struggled in the first game. If it wasn't for some poor finishing from Sweden, South Korea would have been beaten very handily and the competition gets tougher for them in the remaining Group games.

Poor finishing almost cost Mexico the chance of a big upset in the opening game but they hung on to beat Germany 1-0 and take command of this Group. The hopes back home is that Mexico can return to the Quarter Final of the World Cup having suffered six consecutive Last 16 defeats and winning the Group would be a huge step to achieving the 'quinto partido' the fans so desire.

The pace and quality of play up until the final shot cannot be dismissed and I expect Mexico will be able to create a number of chances in this Group game against a South Korean team that struggled against Sweden. It may be easier for South Korea without the physicality with which Sweden play, but I still expect Mexico to create chances and look for the second win which will give them one foot into the Last 16 ahead of the final Group game.

My feeling was that South Korea would struggle for goals at the World Cup and they looked a team destined for an early exit. I expect them to be on the brink of exit by Saturday evening and that will be contributed to by Mexico's win over them.


Germany v Sweden Pick: This is almost an ideal situation for Sweden having earned three points in their opening Group game and facing a desperate opponent in the next game. Of course many are expecting Germany to bounce back from their shock 0-1 defeat to Mexico, but Sweden will be comfortable knowing they can play their natural game and look to frustrate their opponents.

It was the style Sweden used to beat Italy 1-0 on aggregate in the World Cup Play Offs and I imagine they will sit in deep and hope to counter Germany when the latter perhaps get a little desperate. For the first hour the key for Sweden is to make sure they have the clean sheet and I expect some strong defending from the Swedes in this one.

They will have some chances to cause problems for Germany from set pieces too but I am also expecting a much better performance from the defending Champions than we saw against Mexico. It may suit them playing a team who won't spring from defence to attack nearly as quickly as Mexico did in the first game and I would be surprised if Germany are not able to wear down Sweden in this one.

Germany have some real quality in the midfield areas who can pick the right passes to get through opponents and a team sitting back may just allow them to dictate the tempo with a little more belief than they had against Mexico. I don't think Sweden have the same quality on the counter attack as Mexico displayed and I do think Germany win this game to get back into contention in the Group.

Backing Germany on the Asian Handicap or backing them to win with a clean sheet are both odds against and I like Germany in both markets. The recent German defensive performances are a slight concern, but I think Sweden's goal will be to keep a clean sheet and so I am not sure they will have enough opportunities to expose those defensive concerns for the defending Champions.

At the price I think it is worth backing Germany to win with the clean sheet.


Sunday 24th June
England v Panama Pick: There are a number of mismatches in the World Cup Group Stage which will only be exasperated when the tournament is expanded to 48 nations, but you can't take anything away from Panama having their moment in the sun.

They absolutely deserve their place in the World Cup Finals although it is clear they are some way short of the quality needed to really challenge the top two European nations in the Group. Panama did well to hold Belgium goalless through the first half of the opening game, but the older players perhaps tired as the game wore on and they are in for another test of their fitness on Sunday.

England made harder work of Tunisia than they perhaps should have having created a number of wide open chances before a controversial penalty was awarded against them. It then took some time to break down Tunisia, but the win will be huge for the confidence and I fully expect England to win this match and win fairly comfortably.

The pace in the forward areas will make life tough for Panama to contain England and I think it is much harder to defend with the same passion Panama did in the first game when you have already chased the ball around for 90 minutes a few days earlier.

I expect England to settle into this game very much as they did against Tunisia and this time I would expect a little more composure in the final third which could see England win well. I will back England to cover the Asian Handicap which offers a profit if England win by two goals and a bigger one if they win by three goals or more.

I'm leaning towards the latter being the margin of victory in this one so backing England on the Asian Handicap makes easy sense for me.


Japan v Senegal Pick: The World Cup has seen a number of upsets already through the first round robin fixtures in the Group Stage, but Group H may have been the most open Group prior to the tournament. So while I accept both results in the opening round of Group games were surprises, it is perhaps not of the same magnitude as seeing the likes of Brazil, Argentina and Germany fail to win their first games.

Japan got the better of Colombia thanks to the second fastest red card in history and Senegal later beat Poland which means these two nations come into this fixture knowing they can almost secure a spot in the Last 16 with a win.

I would be surprised if either was too keen on the draw especially as they play this match before the other Group game is contested. If there is a winner in that match, the draw won't suit one of these teams and I have a feel both camps will look at the other as the best chance to put another win on the board in this Group.

Japan are perhaps the team that will take the draw more than Senegal with the feeling they have beaten the best team in the Group. They were very much considered the also-rans in the Group at the start of play and I am not going to get too giddy about their win over Colombia and simply put it down to the situation of facing a team with ten more for almost ninety full minutes.

I don't think Japan are as good as the result suggested and they really did struggle before Colombia perhaps tired. That won't be the case against Senegal who showed huge amounts of energy in their win over Poland and I expect the camp to be bouncing having beaten a real contender for a Last 16 berth.

Senegal hadn't been at their best in recent friendly games, but the 2-0 win over South Korea will give them confidence. I expect their physicality to be very difficult for Japan to deal with and only another 'crazy' situation like Senegal being reduced to ten men for the majority of the game or something like that is likely to be the reason Japan can stay with them.

The African nation showed enough against Poland to think they can find the right plays to break down this Japanese team who may sit back and hope to contain Senegal. That isn't going to be easy against this team who have a threat from set pieces and plenty of pace out wide and I do like Senegal to win the game and perhaps secure their Last 16 spot by the end of Sunday evening.

This was a much bigger price pre-tournament, but I still like Senegal at odds against to win this fixture.


Poland v Colombia Pick: The two favourites to get out of Group H both suffered a defeat in their opening Group games which means the losing team here is almost certainly going to be heading home at the end of the week.

That puts some real pressure on both Poland and Colombia, but could also mean a game featuring plenty of chances at both ends of the field with neither team being able to settle for a draw and any team chasing the game having to take risks.

You have to expect better from Poland- while they weren't as poor as Saudi Arabia and Panama, those nations didn't come into the tournament with anything near the expectations Poland did. I would put them alongside Nigeria as the most disappointing of the teams in the first round of Group games and I would like to think the manager will get into them and ask for much better in this one.

Colombia will also be looking for more, but there is some sympathy with their plight after Carlos Sanchez was sent off in the first three minutes of the defeat to Japan. They didn't look a bad team, but tired as the game went on, while James Rodriguez has a few more days to get over the injury issue which forced him into a substitute role in the first game.

There is much to like about Colombia and I think they are far from out of the tournament even after losing the first game. History is against them, but there is some real talent in forward areas and I think they will give Poland plenty of problems when you think of the poor defensive record in Qualifiers and the way they played in the opening game.

With the situation as it is, Poland have to take chances too which will only expose those issues at the back and I am anticipating this being yet another Group H fixture which features at least three goals shared out. Both teams should have chances with the high profile attacking players at their disposal and I think this could be a decent game as an effective 'knock out' fixture with the losing team almost certainly going home.

Some teams may play a little more conservatively under those conditions, but I think the fact both lost their opening game means they will take chances to avoid any draw and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: Russia-Egypt Draw @ 3.30 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Portugal - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Uruguay - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Spain - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denmark-Australia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)
France to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Argentina-Croatia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brazil - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nigeria-Iceland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Serbia-Switzerland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.60 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Belgium - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Mexico - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Germany Win to Nil @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
England - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Senegal @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Poland-Colombia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Group Stage Round Robin Two Update: 8-7-1, + 1.09 Units (31 Units Staked, + 3.52% Yield)

Group Stage Round Robin One Final: 8-8, + 5.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 18.71% Yield)