The European Championships have been expanded to include twenty-four teams in the Finals in France next summer and that was always going to mean some new nations would get an opportunity to play in this major international tournament.
Iceland took full advantage of that by booking their place as one of the top two teams in Group A of the Qualifiers and they will be playing in a major international tournament Finals for the first time. They have been an improving team in recent years and Iceland are one of five teams that have confirmed their place at the European Championship.
France, England, Austria and the Czech Republic are the other four teams that will be playing in the Finals, but there should be some more nations added to that list after this penultimate round of fixtures to be played on Thursday through Saturday.
Wales, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Northern Ireland, Italy and Portugal are just a win away from qualification and they could all be in the Finals by Saturday evening before the final round of games decides Play Off positions and confirms the first sixteen teams that will be in the tournament in France.
I will split the picks from the two rounds of games to be played with the first round of picks covering the games to be played on Thursday through Saturday, and the second round of picks in a separate post covering those games scheduled for Sunday through Tuesday.
I had a few thoughts from the big Premier League stories from last weekend which can be read here.
Northern Ireland v Greece Pick: Northern Ireland are so close to confirming their place at the European Championship, but they still have to find a win or earn two draws from their remaining games to ensure their place is booked.
Most will look at the first game with Greece, who are very much out of contention and who have changed managers during this Qualification campaign, as the one that Northern Ireland can win and start the celebration.
I am not sure it is as straight forward as that as Northern Ireland have won 3 of their 5 victories in the Group away from Windsor Park and had to settle for draws with both Romania and Hungary. Greece also have to be respected as only 1 of their 5 losses in the section have actually come away from home and so the layers haven't made a mistake in placing Northern Ireland at such a big price to win this game.
Goals might be in short supply as expected too, but I think there is something in backing 'no goalscorer' which at least covers any goals being scored through an own goal.
Northern Ireland have had a goalless draw against Romania in the Group and Greece have had two of those at Hungary and Romania. I don't think the home team will risk losing the game to try and win it, especially if they hear positive news from the other games in the Group that will be played at the same time, and Northern Ireland will be confident of earning the second point needed next week in Helsinki.
A lack of goals in the Greece side suggests they might not trouble the scoreboard too much and it might be worth backing 'no goalscorer' for the smallest of interests.
Republic of Ireland v Germany Pick: The European Championship places have already begun to filled and there will be a few more nations that will have their stamps booked by the end of this penultimate round of Qualifiers. The World Champions Germany will be hoping they can confirm their place after the Thursday night visit to Dublin to take on a desperate Republic of Ireland team who are still in with a chance to finish in the top two in the Group.
A strong run of results in the Group have put Germany in pole position to take one of the top two automatic Qualifier spots for France 2016 and they look in a very strong place to do that by winning in Dublin. They destroyed the Republic of Ireland in the World Cup Qualifiers having secured a 1-6 win here in that Qualifying campaign and Germany showed their quality last month by beating Poland and winning in Scotland.
Germany scored three goals in both of those wins and there is every chance they will have too much in the final third for the Republic of Ireland. Only a late goal prevented Poland winning here earlier in the Group and there is definitely a lack of goals in the Ireland team who have failed to score more than a single goal in three of their Qualifiers at home.
If the Germans reach the three goal mark here, I think they will be too strong for the Republic of Ireland and I believe they cover the Asian Handicap on their way to Qualifying for France.
Romania v Finland Pick: It has been a tough end to the Qualifying Group for Romania and you have to think that some nerves have been getting the better of them as they have tried to back their way into the European Championship Finals. It is getting a little desperate for them as failing to win their final two Group games might give Hungary the chance to overtake them into the automatic Qualifying spots assuming Northern Ireland are not beaten twice.
There are some different permutations to work out, but Romania know the most simple one is win this game and then earn a point against the Faroe Islands will be enough for them to book their plane tickets for France next summer. The defence has continued to do a solid job by keeping plenty of clean sheets in the Group and it is about finding a bit of magic in the final third to make sure the three points are earned.
Finland are not out of contention when it comes to finishing in the top three, but they look in a desperate spot and anything other than a win here will likely be curtains for them. Wins over Greece and the Faroe Islands have given Finland half a chance, but Finland's 10 points have all been earned against those two nations.
They have lost the other 4 games they have played in the Group against Romania, Hungary and Northern Ireland and I think the home team will be able to contain them for much of this game. Romania know they will have another chance to earn their win and move into the European Championship, but Finland will be more desperate as this game goes on and I think the home team can pick them off.
It will likely be tight, but Romania look like they can put one foot into France 2016 by winning this game and then hoping Hungary surprisingly fail to beat Faroe Islands or Romania earn a result against that same team next week to secure their place for next summer.
Scotland v Poland Pick: This is a big game for both Scotland and Poland who are desperate for the three points in their separate bids to reach Euro 2016 next summer. Both will have a keen eye on events in Dublin which are going to have a huge impact on both of these teams, but the initial focus will be on this game and making sure the three points are put on the board.
Scotland's 1-0 defeat to Georgia looks like it is going to be impossible to overcome unless the Republic of Ireland were to earn just two points from their remaining games and Scotland can win both of theirs. The game in Gibraltar shouldn't pose a problem, but Scotland have to win this one you'd feel if they are going to get to the Play Offs at least.
Both teams should give this a go as they look to earn the result they need and both teams have shown a vulnerability at the back that could make this an exciting game.
An early goal would really liven up the atmosphere as it will open up spaces with the team conceding needing to take more chances to get back into the game. It does make the quotes for over 2.5 goals look a bit too big, especially if the 2-2 in Warsaw is anything to go by as both Poland and Scotland look to score the goals to give themselves a chance to move into a major international tournament.
Picking a winner is very difficult and I am slightly concerned with the 1-1 scoreline which looks a big player. However, I favour the fact that both Poland and Scotland need the three points and settling for a point might not be good enough unless news filters through that Germany have a big lead against the Republic of Ireland.
Even in that scenario, Scotland will be pushing forward to win the game as they can't rely on Poland to beat Ireland next week and I like the chances of there being at least three goals shared.
Azerbaijan v Italy Pick: Italy are on the brink of making another European Championship Finals as they are one win away from ensuring they are playing in France next summer. They haven't had a straight-forward time in this Group, but are four points clear of Croatia in third place with two games left to play and they will look to confirm their place without the nervousness of a last game against Norway at home next week.
Goals have been a problem for Italy in recent games and they have only scored more than a single goal in 1 of their last 9 games which includes matches against the likes of Malta (twice) and Albania.
They have done just enough to pick up three points in the Group and Azerbaijan is going to be a difficult away game for them to face, even if they are not one of the top nations in European football. Just ask Croatia who had to settle for a goalless draw in Baku last month which might cost them a top two place in the Group and Azerbaijan have also earned a goalless draw at Norway in this Group.
Both of their home defeats in the Group have come by a single goal margin and Azerbaijan are unlikely to be blown away by Italy who don't go beyond what they need to in order to win games. Both wins over Malta came by a one goal margin and Italy will look to protect the lead if they do get in front in this one.
With the home team also making life difficult, picking Italy to win by a one goal margin looks a big price to me.
Bosnia-Herzegovina v Wales Pick: Not many teams will be underestimating Wales these days as the team have a world class performer in Gareth Bale and have improved significantly in the World Rankings. There is almost no doubt that Wales will be playing in the European Championships next summer as they need a point from games against Bosnia-Herzegovina and Andorra assuming Israel and Belgium win this week and Israel then win in Belgium.
It would be a huge surprise if Wales are not able to earn that point with Andorra next up, but they might have a difficult time getting it from a desperate Bosnia-Herzegovina who still have Play Off ambitions.
Bosnia-Herzegovina have been a very difficult team to play on their home soil and they will be taking Wales very seriously after the improvements the latter have made under Chris Coleman. While Wales have been effective away from home in this set of Qualifiers, they have needed late goals for victories in Andorra and Cyprus.
They have also shown defensive skills in earning a goalless draw in Belgium, but I have a feeling Wales might not have the same desire as Bosnia-Herzegovina in this game. It would only be human to think ahead to the Andorra game as one where Wales can book their place in France in front of their own fans, whereas the Bosnian team will know they are in the last chance saloon when it comes to a potential Play Off spot.
Edin Dzeko missing the game would be a big blow to the home team, but I still believe they can find a way to earn the narrow win and just force Wales to wait a little while longer to end their barren major international tournament appearance run. If Israel fail to beat Cyprus, it might not even take as long as Tuesday for Wales to be booking tickets to France, but either way I think Bosnia-Herzegovina can win this one.
Czech Republic v Turkey Pick: There will be some keen Dutch eyes on this fixture being played in the Czech Republic as they look for a favour from the home team in their game with Turkey. While it is going to take some collapse from Turkey to allow the Netherlands back into the picture in this Group, the Czech Republic still have some motivation despite already Qualifying for France 2016.
Winning games could improve the Seeding of teams and the Czech Republic would love to win the Group and ensure they are in as good a position as possible to have a major impact at the next European Championship. The extended format of the tournament means the Seeding could be very important for nations especially with some big nations potentially being knocked out prior to the Finals.
The Czech Republic have been very good at home through the Qualifiers with all three wins coming by the same 2-1 scoreline and I can imagine they will have their backers in this one. However, Turkey have shown they can cause problems at big grounds with a win in Romania in the World Cup Qualifiers and only a 90th minute equaliser prevented them winning in Holland during these Qualifiers.
I can see both teams having their chances in this one and goals aren't usually a problem when the Czech Republic and Turkey meet one another. The first game in the Group ended with three goals and the last two games between these nations in the Czech Republic have both seen at least three goals scored.
5 of the last 7 Qualifiers the Czech Republic have played at home have ended with at least three goals and Turkey's ambition could make this an entertaining game. The layers don't seem to fancy there being goals in this one, but I think that is a distinct possibility and the prices are very tempting here.
MY PICKS: Northern Ireland-Greece No Goalscorer @ 6.00 Bet Fred (0.5 Units)
Germany - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Romania @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Scotland-Poland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Coral (2 Units)
Italy to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Coral (1 Unit)
BosniaHerzegovina @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Czech Republic-Turkey Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
October Update: 3-4, - 3.20 Units (14 Units Staked, - 22.86% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Free Euro 2016 Qualifiers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free Euro 2016 Qualifiers. Show all posts
Wednesday, 7 October 2015
Friday, 12 June 2015
Euro 2016 Qualifiers Picks 2015 (June 12-14)
The final senior European football of the season takes place this weekend as another round of Euro 2016 Qualifiers takes place and the tournament of next summer will begin to take place. It is still too early for teams to confirm their places at the European Championship in France, but this could be a pivotal round of games for teams as they look to get themselves into a position to confirm their places in France later in the year.
There are some big nations who are desperate to start to close the gap in their Groups, most notably the Netherlands, while the 'Home Nations' like Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland could go a long way to getting themselves in a position to reach a major international tournament if they can win this weekend.
All three have very difficult games, but all have begun well enough to think they can challenge for top two positions in their Group and, at the very worst, at least a Play Off place.
England are less insecure than those three teams I mentioned and the Republic of Ireland, but they have a chance to all but book their tickets to France if they can win in Slovenia this weekend.
After this round of games, the next thing to look forward to from a personal perspective has to be the June 17th release of the Premier League fixtures for next season.
Wales v Belgium Pick: When you are placed in Pot 4 for the European Championship Qualifiers, the expectation that you will actually qualify for the tournament, even an expanded one, is not very high. But that wasn't the case for Wales who were pleased with their Group and they have had a positive first half of the qualifiers to think they can break their long run of failing to attend a major international tournament.
The win in Israel in the last round of qualifiers has given Wales a great chance to qualify for France 2016 automatically, but there is still work to be done and they can't look too far ahead. They play Belgium this weekend and also still have to face Bosnia and Herzegovina away from home, so Wales are far from guaranteed from booking their hotels for next summer.
Belgium are just behind Wales on goal difference in the Group, but there has to be a lot more confidence in their camp as this is arguably the toughest game they have left to play. The quality in the Belgium team was evident in the manner they beat France away from home in a friendly last week and while the FIFA Ranking of Number 2 looks high, Belgium are a definite threat to win the European Championship.
They have won 6 of their last 7 away qualifiers and while Wales have played well, they did lose 3 of their 5 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers. Marouane Fellaini is missing as is Vincent Kompany, but Belgium are the better team and Eden Hazard certainly finished the season with more confidence than Gareth Bale.
Those two are the difference makers in this match- Bale has picked up his form for Wales compared with performances for Real Madrid, but Belgium seem to have more match winners and can win this game.
Armenia v Portugal Pick: This is far from a straight forward game for Portugal who have been a little vulnerable during recent qualifiers even though they have won 3 straight games in the Group to move to the top of the section. However, they needed a late goal to beat Denmark and needed second half strikes to get past Serbia and Armenia at home in narrow wins.
You also have to respect Armenia for some of their performances in the qualifiers, even if they have not really threatened to actually make a major international tournament. They did lose 4 of 5 at home in the World Cup Qualifiers, but Armenia only lost 1 of 5 in the last Euro Qualifiers and have already held Serbia 1-1 here in this campaign.
Armenia did suffer a thumping home defeat to France in a recent friendly at home though and I do wonder if they have enough in the final third to trouble a Portugal back line that had been playing well before the stunning 0-2 home loss to Cape Verde Islands. Prior to that result, Portugal had conceded only 1 goal in 4 games, including against the likes of Denmark and Argentina, and they are likely to use that as a foundation for success in this latest round of qualifying games.
With Cristiano Ronaldo in the starting line up, Portugal will always expect they will find a way to score a goal or two, but it has been the defensive performances that have sparked their move up the Group standings.
I expect Portugal will have to ride their fortunes at some point in this match, but they should have enough to find a breakthrough and come through with a win thanks to a clean sheet.
Poland v Georgia Pick: After beating Germany 2-0 at home in the early stages of this Qualifying campaign, Poland know that will all be for naught if they don't complete the double over Georgia. They still have tough away games in Germany and Scotland to play and Poland also host the rugged Republic of Ireland team so dropping points against one of the two weakest teams in the section, at home no less, will be a blow to their chances of finishing in the top two positions.
Finishing there means an automatic berth at the next European Championship in France and Poland have already convincingly beaten Georgia away from home in the section as they won 0-4 in Tbilisi in November.
Georgia simply don't travel that well away from home and that was shown in comfortable losses in Belarus, France and Spain during the last World Cup Qualifiers, while Scotland should have won by far more than a 1-0 scoreline suggested in their game earlier in the Group. They have also been beaten comfortably in the Republic of Ireland in a friendly while narrow losses at Kazakhstan and the UAE doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
The home fans might have to be patient because there is little doubt that Georgia will come here with a defensive mentality and hope to frustrate Poland into making mistakes. After all this is a Poland team that won just 2 of 5 home games in the last World Cup Qualifiers, although both of those came against teams of the Georgia level, especially the win over Moldova.
If they don't lose their composure, Poland should find a way to break down Georgia in this one too and I do think they win this one with something to spare. Goal difference could be important in such a tight Group to decide places so Poland should put in a strong effort to win with that something to spare and I will back them to win by at least two goals.
Denmark v Serbia Pick: It is already looking like a big task for Serbia to turn around their form in their European Championship Qualifying Group and a defeat on Saturday will effectively end their hopes of an automatic place in France. The third spot might not be beyond them at that point, but Serbia will be desperate to reverse their 1-3 home loss to Denmark as they travel to Copenhagen.
On the other hand, Denmark will look at their next three games a real chance to confirm their spot in one of the top two places in the Group which will send them to yet another major international tournament. Of course Denmark's most famous international moment came in the European Championships back in 1992 when they were a late entree before going on to win that tournament.
One disappointment for Denmark has been winning just 2 of their last 7 home qualifiers and they were undone by a late Cristiano Ronaldo goal in a home defeat to Portugal earlier in the Group. That poor home form cost them the chance to earn a place at the World Cup last summer, but Denmark can take confidence from Serbia's struggles away from home where they have won 1 of their last 7 qualifiers and been beaten 4 times.
And while Denmark haven't produced the goods in the qualifiers, they have won 6 of their last 8 home games and their 1-3 win in Serbia earlier in the Group will give them the confidence they can earn another vital three points.
The match will likely be a tight one, but Denmark's additional confidence from recent results at home should help them find a way to a narrow win.
Slovenia v England Pick: For all the talk coming out of the England camp about how effective they have been going forward, it was the poor reaction to the goalless draw in the Republic of Ireland that has some of the players fired up. Joe Hart claimed no one 'would say it to (my) face' which seems an incredible reaction to what was universally accepted as a terrible game of football.
People like Hart do make me laugh though- I'm not sure what kind of reaction he was expecting after fans paid out plenty of hard earned cash for a really poor game of football, but the concentration has to move to the Slovenia game as England look for another three points in the Group.
Aside from the Switzerland game, this is clearly the toughest game that England have to negotiate, but they are already in a strong position in the Group and the pressure is not as high as it might have been. England won't want to give up their position in the Group and lose to a potential rival for one of the top two positions, but they have to play better than they did last week.
Slovenia are no pushovers at home with 5 wins in their last 6 Qualifiers in front of their own fans and they did beat Switzerland here to get into the position they are behind England. They also had the lead at Wembley Stadium earlier in the Qualifiers before succumbing to a 3-1 defeat and England at odds on looks very short.
A draw wouldn't be the worst result for England as it would keep them 6 points clear of Slovenia and it has to be remembered England drew 3 of their 5 away World Cup Qualifiers. The win in Switzerland was a strong result, but this game comes at the end of a long season for England and tiredness might be a factor.
The draw wouldn't be an awful result for Slovenia either knowing Switzerland still have to visit England. The home team have won plenty of qualifiers at home in recent years, but I think the draw is a lively player in this one and worth a small interest.
Belarus v Spain Pick: The disaster of the last World Cup campaign had many thinking Spain were perhaps going to have to take a step back in their ability to win the major tournaments as they transitioned to a new set of players to replace a 'Golden Generation' who won the World Cup in 2010 and two European Championships around that victory.
It might be part of the reason that Spain have struggled to find their consistency since returning from Brazil as they have won 5 and lost 4 of 9 games played and struggled to see off Costa Rica in their final friendly ahead of this game. However, Spain have been very strong on their travels in the qualifiers over the last three campaigns and have won 15 of 16 away qualifiers with the sole exception being that surprise defeat in Slovakia.
And for all the talk of inconsistency, it has to be said that Spain have only lost to the highest of quality outside of the defeat to Slovakia as the other three losses have come to France (away), Germany (home) and the Netherlands (away).
Suffice to say that Belarus are not exactly in that level of competition and they have shown they can't really match up to the best teams with comfortable home losses to Ukraine and Slovakia in the Group already. Both Spain and France scored four goals here in the World Cup Qualifiers and both Ukraine and Slovakia won by a two goal margin.
I can't expect Belarus to roll over as both the Ukraine and Slovakia needed to score twice in the last ten minutes to put a positive slant on their scorelines, but Spain are a better team than both. Sometimes Spain can be guilty of overplaying, but they can't afford to drop silly points and I expect the players can have one more big effort before getting a well deserved summer break.
Lithuania v Switzerland Pick: Do you know one team I can't quite get my head around? Switzerland... This is a team that has become a regular nation at major international tournaments, usually qualifying fairly easily, but every time I watch them play I am underwhelmed and unsure as to how they are so successful.
This time around it has been far from a breeze for the Swiss as they are currently 3rd in the Group thanks to their head to head record with Slovenia and 6 points behind England. With a home game against Slovenia to come, Switzerland will be confident they can outpoint them in the remaining five games and that means they have to visit Lithuania and leave with the three points.
They are now unbeaten in 6 games after back to back losses to England and Slovenia to open the Group and Switzerland have won 4 of those games. Switzerland are comfortable away from home as they have won 5 of their last 7 away qualifiers over the last two campaigns and Lithuania have looked overmatched by the top three teams in the Group.
Wins over Estonia and San Marino gave Lithuania false hope that they could potentially compete for a top three spot in the Group, but they have lost to Slovenia, Switzerland and England since then and failed to score in any of those games. Granted they only lost 2 of 5 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers, but Lithuania have already been dismissed by Slovenia in a 0-2 home defeat and it is hard to see Switzerland not being able to match that score having crushed them 4-0 at home.
It will still be a difficult game for Switzerland if they are not focused, but they know they can start getting back into position to qualify for France 2016 without the Play Offs if they win this game and I expect them to do so by a similar margin to Slovenia.
Slovakia v FYR Macedonia Pick: I am sure that both Spain and Ukraine would have been looking at their defeats to Slovakia and wondering whether the latter could maintain their form and take away one of the top two qualifying spots from this Group. Those wins came in September and have sparked Slovakia to win all 5 games played in the Group and all 8 games played since September.
Slovakia have not allowed the wins over Ukraine and Spain get to their heads and they have shown some real determination to win away games at Belarus and Macedonia which were troublesome on paper. Both came comfortably and Slovakia have been very good at home with 6 straight wins here and it would be a real surprise if they don't win this one too.
This is a team that knows they can get through to France 2016 if they can win their remaining home games and even a defeat in Spain in September won't be a hindrance to them. Slovakia might have to be patient against Macedonia who will come here to make life difficult for them, but the latter have not been a good travelling team in qualifiers and it is hard to make a case for them.
One case might be that Macedonia only lost 1-0 in Ukraine and Belgium were only 1-0 winners against them in the World Cup Qualifiers a couple of years ago. That might see them frustrate Slovakia, but the latter have only failed to score less than 2 goals in 2 of their last 6 home games and I think it might be a big ask for Macedonia to stay within the Asian Handicap.
In amongst those tight losses, Macedonia have conceded five in Spain and Serbia and Slovakia should be able to find a win by a couple of goals in this one.
MY PICKS: Belgium @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Portugal Win to Nil @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Poland - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denmark @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Slovenia-England Draw @ 3.60 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Spain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Switzerland - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Slovakia - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
There are some big nations who are desperate to start to close the gap in their Groups, most notably the Netherlands, while the 'Home Nations' like Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland could go a long way to getting themselves in a position to reach a major international tournament if they can win this weekend.
All three have very difficult games, but all have begun well enough to think they can challenge for top two positions in their Group and, at the very worst, at least a Play Off place.
England are less insecure than those three teams I mentioned and the Republic of Ireland, but they have a chance to all but book their tickets to France if they can win in Slovenia this weekend.
After this round of games, the next thing to look forward to from a personal perspective has to be the June 17th release of the Premier League fixtures for next season.
Wales v Belgium Pick: When you are placed in Pot 4 for the European Championship Qualifiers, the expectation that you will actually qualify for the tournament, even an expanded one, is not very high. But that wasn't the case for Wales who were pleased with their Group and they have had a positive first half of the qualifiers to think they can break their long run of failing to attend a major international tournament.
The win in Israel in the last round of qualifiers has given Wales a great chance to qualify for France 2016 automatically, but there is still work to be done and they can't look too far ahead. They play Belgium this weekend and also still have to face Bosnia and Herzegovina away from home, so Wales are far from guaranteed from booking their hotels for next summer.
Belgium are just behind Wales on goal difference in the Group, but there has to be a lot more confidence in their camp as this is arguably the toughest game they have left to play. The quality in the Belgium team was evident in the manner they beat France away from home in a friendly last week and while the FIFA Ranking of Number 2 looks high, Belgium are a definite threat to win the European Championship.
They have won 6 of their last 7 away qualifiers and while Wales have played well, they did lose 3 of their 5 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers. Marouane Fellaini is missing as is Vincent Kompany, but Belgium are the better team and Eden Hazard certainly finished the season with more confidence than Gareth Bale.
Those two are the difference makers in this match- Bale has picked up his form for Wales compared with performances for Real Madrid, but Belgium seem to have more match winners and can win this game.
Armenia v Portugal Pick: This is far from a straight forward game for Portugal who have been a little vulnerable during recent qualifiers even though they have won 3 straight games in the Group to move to the top of the section. However, they needed a late goal to beat Denmark and needed second half strikes to get past Serbia and Armenia at home in narrow wins.
You also have to respect Armenia for some of their performances in the qualifiers, even if they have not really threatened to actually make a major international tournament. They did lose 4 of 5 at home in the World Cup Qualifiers, but Armenia only lost 1 of 5 in the last Euro Qualifiers and have already held Serbia 1-1 here in this campaign.
Armenia did suffer a thumping home defeat to France in a recent friendly at home though and I do wonder if they have enough in the final third to trouble a Portugal back line that had been playing well before the stunning 0-2 home loss to Cape Verde Islands. Prior to that result, Portugal had conceded only 1 goal in 4 games, including against the likes of Denmark and Argentina, and they are likely to use that as a foundation for success in this latest round of qualifying games.
With Cristiano Ronaldo in the starting line up, Portugal will always expect they will find a way to score a goal or two, but it has been the defensive performances that have sparked their move up the Group standings.
I expect Portugal will have to ride their fortunes at some point in this match, but they should have enough to find a breakthrough and come through with a win thanks to a clean sheet.
Poland v Georgia Pick: After beating Germany 2-0 at home in the early stages of this Qualifying campaign, Poland know that will all be for naught if they don't complete the double over Georgia. They still have tough away games in Germany and Scotland to play and Poland also host the rugged Republic of Ireland team so dropping points against one of the two weakest teams in the section, at home no less, will be a blow to their chances of finishing in the top two positions.
Finishing there means an automatic berth at the next European Championship in France and Poland have already convincingly beaten Georgia away from home in the section as they won 0-4 in Tbilisi in November.
Georgia simply don't travel that well away from home and that was shown in comfortable losses in Belarus, France and Spain during the last World Cup Qualifiers, while Scotland should have won by far more than a 1-0 scoreline suggested in their game earlier in the Group. They have also been beaten comfortably in the Republic of Ireland in a friendly while narrow losses at Kazakhstan and the UAE doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
The home fans might have to be patient because there is little doubt that Georgia will come here with a defensive mentality and hope to frustrate Poland into making mistakes. After all this is a Poland team that won just 2 of 5 home games in the last World Cup Qualifiers, although both of those came against teams of the Georgia level, especially the win over Moldova.
If they don't lose their composure, Poland should find a way to break down Georgia in this one too and I do think they win this one with something to spare. Goal difference could be important in such a tight Group to decide places so Poland should put in a strong effort to win with that something to spare and I will back them to win by at least two goals.
Denmark v Serbia Pick: It is already looking like a big task for Serbia to turn around their form in their European Championship Qualifying Group and a defeat on Saturday will effectively end their hopes of an automatic place in France. The third spot might not be beyond them at that point, but Serbia will be desperate to reverse their 1-3 home loss to Denmark as they travel to Copenhagen.
On the other hand, Denmark will look at their next three games a real chance to confirm their spot in one of the top two places in the Group which will send them to yet another major international tournament. Of course Denmark's most famous international moment came in the European Championships back in 1992 when they were a late entree before going on to win that tournament.
One disappointment for Denmark has been winning just 2 of their last 7 home qualifiers and they were undone by a late Cristiano Ronaldo goal in a home defeat to Portugal earlier in the Group. That poor home form cost them the chance to earn a place at the World Cup last summer, but Denmark can take confidence from Serbia's struggles away from home where they have won 1 of their last 7 qualifiers and been beaten 4 times.
And while Denmark haven't produced the goods in the qualifiers, they have won 6 of their last 8 home games and their 1-3 win in Serbia earlier in the Group will give them the confidence they can earn another vital three points.
The match will likely be a tight one, but Denmark's additional confidence from recent results at home should help them find a way to a narrow win.
Slovenia v England Pick: For all the talk coming out of the England camp about how effective they have been going forward, it was the poor reaction to the goalless draw in the Republic of Ireland that has some of the players fired up. Joe Hart claimed no one 'would say it to (my) face' which seems an incredible reaction to what was universally accepted as a terrible game of football.
People like Hart do make me laugh though- I'm not sure what kind of reaction he was expecting after fans paid out plenty of hard earned cash for a really poor game of football, but the concentration has to move to the Slovenia game as England look for another three points in the Group.
Aside from the Switzerland game, this is clearly the toughest game that England have to negotiate, but they are already in a strong position in the Group and the pressure is not as high as it might have been. England won't want to give up their position in the Group and lose to a potential rival for one of the top two positions, but they have to play better than they did last week.
Slovenia are no pushovers at home with 5 wins in their last 6 Qualifiers in front of their own fans and they did beat Switzerland here to get into the position they are behind England. They also had the lead at Wembley Stadium earlier in the Qualifiers before succumbing to a 3-1 defeat and England at odds on looks very short.
A draw wouldn't be the worst result for England as it would keep them 6 points clear of Slovenia and it has to be remembered England drew 3 of their 5 away World Cup Qualifiers. The win in Switzerland was a strong result, but this game comes at the end of a long season for England and tiredness might be a factor.
The draw wouldn't be an awful result for Slovenia either knowing Switzerland still have to visit England. The home team have won plenty of qualifiers at home in recent years, but I think the draw is a lively player in this one and worth a small interest.
Belarus v Spain Pick: The disaster of the last World Cup campaign had many thinking Spain were perhaps going to have to take a step back in their ability to win the major tournaments as they transitioned to a new set of players to replace a 'Golden Generation' who won the World Cup in 2010 and two European Championships around that victory.
It might be part of the reason that Spain have struggled to find their consistency since returning from Brazil as they have won 5 and lost 4 of 9 games played and struggled to see off Costa Rica in their final friendly ahead of this game. However, Spain have been very strong on their travels in the qualifiers over the last three campaigns and have won 15 of 16 away qualifiers with the sole exception being that surprise defeat in Slovakia.
And for all the talk of inconsistency, it has to be said that Spain have only lost to the highest of quality outside of the defeat to Slovakia as the other three losses have come to France (away), Germany (home) and the Netherlands (away).
Suffice to say that Belarus are not exactly in that level of competition and they have shown they can't really match up to the best teams with comfortable home losses to Ukraine and Slovakia in the Group already. Both Spain and France scored four goals here in the World Cup Qualifiers and both Ukraine and Slovakia won by a two goal margin.
I can't expect Belarus to roll over as both the Ukraine and Slovakia needed to score twice in the last ten minutes to put a positive slant on their scorelines, but Spain are a better team than both. Sometimes Spain can be guilty of overplaying, but they can't afford to drop silly points and I expect the players can have one more big effort before getting a well deserved summer break.
Lithuania v Switzerland Pick: Do you know one team I can't quite get my head around? Switzerland... This is a team that has become a regular nation at major international tournaments, usually qualifying fairly easily, but every time I watch them play I am underwhelmed and unsure as to how they are so successful.
This time around it has been far from a breeze for the Swiss as they are currently 3rd in the Group thanks to their head to head record with Slovenia and 6 points behind England. With a home game against Slovenia to come, Switzerland will be confident they can outpoint them in the remaining five games and that means they have to visit Lithuania and leave with the three points.
They are now unbeaten in 6 games after back to back losses to England and Slovenia to open the Group and Switzerland have won 4 of those games. Switzerland are comfortable away from home as they have won 5 of their last 7 away qualifiers over the last two campaigns and Lithuania have looked overmatched by the top three teams in the Group.
Wins over Estonia and San Marino gave Lithuania false hope that they could potentially compete for a top three spot in the Group, but they have lost to Slovenia, Switzerland and England since then and failed to score in any of those games. Granted they only lost 2 of 5 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers, but Lithuania have already been dismissed by Slovenia in a 0-2 home defeat and it is hard to see Switzerland not being able to match that score having crushed them 4-0 at home.
It will still be a difficult game for Switzerland if they are not focused, but they know they can start getting back into position to qualify for France 2016 without the Play Offs if they win this game and I expect them to do so by a similar margin to Slovenia.
Slovakia v FYR Macedonia Pick: I am sure that both Spain and Ukraine would have been looking at their defeats to Slovakia and wondering whether the latter could maintain their form and take away one of the top two qualifying spots from this Group. Those wins came in September and have sparked Slovakia to win all 5 games played in the Group and all 8 games played since September.
Slovakia have not allowed the wins over Ukraine and Spain get to their heads and they have shown some real determination to win away games at Belarus and Macedonia which were troublesome on paper. Both came comfortably and Slovakia have been very good at home with 6 straight wins here and it would be a real surprise if they don't win this one too.
This is a team that knows they can get through to France 2016 if they can win their remaining home games and even a defeat in Spain in September won't be a hindrance to them. Slovakia might have to be patient against Macedonia who will come here to make life difficult for them, but the latter have not been a good travelling team in qualifiers and it is hard to make a case for them.
One case might be that Macedonia only lost 1-0 in Ukraine and Belgium were only 1-0 winners against them in the World Cup Qualifiers a couple of years ago. That might see them frustrate Slovakia, but the latter have only failed to score less than 2 goals in 2 of their last 6 home games and I think it might be a big ask for Macedonia to stay within the Asian Handicap.
In amongst those tight losses, Macedonia have conceded five in Spain and Serbia and Slovakia should be able to find a win by a couple of goals in this one.
MY PICKS: Belgium @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Portugal Win to Nil @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Poland - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denmark @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Slovenia-England Draw @ 3.60 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Spain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Switzerland - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Slovakia - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Friday, 27 March 2015
Euro 2016 Qualifiers Picks 2015 (March 27-29)
I am not a big fan of the international breaks, but the Euro 2016 Qualifiers are almost reaching very important times for some of the teams looking to make their way to France next summer. For the majority of the 'big' nations, it looks plain sailing, but teams like Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium have some work to do and games this weekend are very important for them to get back on track.
There is a range of games being played for television coverage over the next three days so you're bound to find some entertainment, but I can't wait to roll back with the Premier League next weekend.
England v Lithuania Pick: I don't think there is anything wrong in saying that England are not always the most entertaining team to watch and this game is not one that looks set to get the pulse racing for fans on a Friday night. The tension of qualification has almost gone thanks to wins over Switzerland and Slovenia and the additional places to qualify for the extended Euro 2016 tournament in France and attendances to England games have dropped.
All credit to Roy Hodgson for getting on with things, but the only way he will keep the media off his back is if England run out comfortable winners on Friday.
And they should do just that... Lithuania are not the best travellers and have found the best teams they have played to be far too good for them for the most part. Heavy losses in Bosnia and Switzerland over the last two qualifying campaigns suggest England shoul be routine winners, while England themselves have scored at least three goals in 5 of their last 6 qualifiers at Wembley Stadium.
In Harry Kane, England have someone in red-hot form and the home team should show the difference in levels between these teams and win by at least three goals I feel.
Kazakhstan v Iceland Pick: This is the kind of qualifier that Iceland have to circle as a 'must win' game if they have serious ambitions of qualifying for their first major international tournament, especially knowing they have to visit Turkey and the Netherlands later in the Group.
Kazakhstan are a competitive team, but they have struggled defensively which should mean Iceland have chances to score the goals to carry them to three points in this one. However, Kazakhstan have also scored against the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Turkey which makes them a danger to a team like Iceland who have to play pressure-free football.
I seriously considered backing Iceland on the Asian Handicap considering Kazakhstan have lost their last three games by two goals each, but the attacking threat the home team clearly has can't be under-estimated. They have scored in 7 of their last 13 home qualifiers and a fair few of those have come against teams of Iceland's level.
On the other hand, Kazakhstan have lost a lot of those games and backing both teams to score in a game Iceland win has to be worth a small interest.
Andorra v Bosnia and Herzegovina Pick: There is a lot of pressure on Bosnia and Herzegovina heading into this latest qualifier as another failure to win might be enough to put them out of the European Championship. They have had some disappointing results in the qualifiers so far, but this would be the ultimate embarrassment if they ended Andorra's run of 48 straight qualifier losses.
However, it has to be remembered that Andorra are unlikely to just roll over and play dead as the have troubled plenty of visitors to them in recent games. The fact remains that only 4 of 12 visitors have scored three or more goals against Andorra, although Bosnia do have the attacking talent to get to that number.
The big question for Bosnia is whether the change in the calendar year has been enough to change the mindset and finally put the World Cup to the back of their minds. This is a team that scored a lot of goals in wins in Liechtenstein and Latvia in the World Cup qualifiers and they are capable of putting Andorra to the sword in this one.
An early goal would definitely settle the Bosnian minds and I like them to prove they are still alive in this Group with a routine and comfortable win in Andorra.
Belgium v Cyprus Pick: This is an important week for Belgium who are looking to get their qualification campaign back on track as they face Cyprus and Israel in the coming days. Wins in both of those games will make Belgium the favourites to top the section, but dropping any points and the pressure really is on as they look to finish in one of the top two places in the Group.
To be honest, the two automatic qualifiers and third place being sent into the Play Offs means it would take a huge upset for Belgium to fail to have the chance to play in France next summer, although they can't allow complacency to set in and just think they have to turn up to right the situation.
They should be far too strong for a Cyprus team that has a number of injuries affecting the squad they were able to pick for this qualifier as well as the fact that they have been a poor traveller in competitive games. Cyprus have lost 9 of their last 10 away qualifiers, although they have to be respected for keeping the score down in the majority of them.
Belgium are not exactly a team that is going to put up big numbers in terms of goals themselves, but the injury crisis for Cyprus may make things easier for them in this game. If Belgium get their noses in front early, this could be one-way traffic for much of the ninety minutes and I will back the home team to really get qualification back on track with a convincing win.
Netherlands v Turkey Pick: This is a huge game for both the Netherlands and Turkey where the winner will feel their European Championship qualifying campaign is back on track, while the loser would begin to wonder if they are going to make it to France next summer.
It is a bigger game for Turkey, but home advantage should give the Netherlands the edge in the match and I expect they will prove too strong. For all the disappointment of losing to the Czech Republic and Iceland, the Netherlands know destiny is still with them as they host both of those teams later in the Group, while they have won 17 home qualifiers in a row.
Most of those wins have come with some relative comfort and the Netherlands beat Turkey 2-0 at home and away during the World Cup qualifiers for the tournament in Brazil. While they have struggled to match the results they achieved last summer, the Netherlands have been very good at home in these kinds of games and I will back them to win this one with room to spare.
MY PICKS: England - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Iceland to Win @ 4.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Netherlands - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
March Update: 27-16, + 27.96 Units (79 Units Staked, + 35.39% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 100-144-4, - 26.23 Units (421 Units Staked, - 6.23% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
There is a range of games being played for television coverage over the next three days so you're bound to find some entertainment, but I can't wait to roll back with the Premier League next weekend.
England v Lithuania Pick: I don't think there is anything wrong in saying that England are not always the most entertaining team to watch and this game is not one that looks set to get the pulse racing for fans on a Friday night. The tension of qualification has almost gone thanks to wins over Switzerland and Slovenia and the additional places to qualify for the extended Euro 2016 tournament in France and attendances to England games have dropped.
All credit to Roy Hodgson for getting on with things, but the only way he will keep the media off his back is if England run out comfortable winners on Friday.
And they should do just that... Lithuania are not the best travellers and have found the best teams they have played to be far too good for them for the most part. Heavy losses in Bosnia and Switzerland over the last two qualifying campaigns suggest England shoul be routine winners, while England themselves have scored at least three goals in 5 of their last 6 qualifiers at Wembley Stadium.
In Harry Kane, England have someone in red-hot form and the home team should show the difference in levels between these teams and win by at least three goals I feel.
Kazakhstan v Iceland Pick: This is the kind of qualifier that Iceland have to circle as a 'must win' game if they have serious ambitions of qualifying for their first major international tournament, especially knowing they have to visit Turkey and the Netherlands later in the Group.
Kazakhstan are a competitive team, but they have struggled defensively which should mean Iceland have chances to score the goals to carry them to three points in this one. However, Kazakhstan have also scored against the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Turkey which makes them a danger to a team like Iceland who have to play pressure-free football.
I seriously considered backing Iceland on the Asian Handicap considering Kazakhstan have lost their last three games by two goals each, but the attacking threat the home team clearly has can't be under-estimated. They have scored in 7 of their last 13 home qualifiers and a fair few of those have come against teams of Iceland's level.
On the other hand, Kazakhstan have lost a lot of those games and backing both teams to score in a game Iceland win has to be worth a small interest.
Andorra v Bosnia and Herzegovina Pick: There is a lot of pressure on Bosnia and Herzegovina heading into this latest qualifier as another failure to win might be enough to put them out of the European Championship. They have had some disappointing results in the qualifiers so far, but this would be the ultimate embarrassment if they ended Andorra's run of 48 straight qualifier losses.
However, it has to be remembered that Andorra are unlikely to just roll over and play dead as the have troubled plenty of visitors to them in recent games. The fact remains that only 4 of 12 visitors have scored three or more goals against Andorra, although Bosnia do have the attacking talent to get to that number.
The big question for Bosnia is whether the change in the calendar year has been enough to change the mindset and finally put the World Cup to the back of their minds. This is a team that scored a lot of goals in wins in Liechtenstein and Latvia in the World Cup qualifiers and they are capable of putting Andorra to the sword in this one.
An early goal would definitely settle the Bosnian minds and I like them to prove they are still alive in this Group with a routine and comfortable win in Andorra.
Belgium v Cyprus Pick: This is an important week for Belgium who are looking to get their qualification campaign back on track as they face Cyprus and Israel in the coming days. Wins in both of those games will make Belgium the favourites to top the section, but dropping any points and the pressure really is on as they look to finish in one of the top two places in the Group.
To be honest, the two automatic qualifiers and third place being sent into the Play Offs means it would take a huge upset for Belgium to fail to have the chance to play in France next summer, although they can't allow complacency to set in and just think they have to turn up to right the situation.
They should be far too strong for a Cyprus team that has a number of injuries affecting the squad they were able to pick for this qualifier as well as the fact that they have been a poor traveller in competitive games. Cyprus have lost 9 of their last 10 away qualifiers, although they have to be respected for keeping the score down in the majority of them.
Belgium are not exactly a team that is going to put up big numbers in terms of goals themselves, but the injury crisis for Cyprus may make things easier for them in this game. If Belgium get their noses in front early, this could be one-way traffic for much of the ninety minutes and I will back the home team to really get qualification back on track with a convincing win.
Netherlands v Turkey Pick: This is a huge game for both the Netherlands and Turkey where the winner will feel their European Championship qualifying campaign is back on track, while the loser would begin to wonder if they are going to make it to France next summer.
It is a bigger game for Turkey, but home advantage should give the Netherlands the edge in the match and I expect they will prove too strong. For all the disappointment of losing to the Czech Republic and Iceland, the Netherlands know destiny is still with them as they host both of those teams later in the Group, while they have won 17 home qualifiers in a row.
Most of those wins have come with some relative comfort and the Netherlands beat Turkey 2-0 at home and away during the World Cup qualifiers for the tournament in Brazil. While they have struggled to match the results they achieved last summer, the Netherlands have been very good at home in these kinds of games and I will back them to win this one with room to spare.
MY PICKS: England - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Iceland to Win @ 4.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Netherlands - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
March Update: 27-16, + 27.96 Units (79 Units Staked, + 35.39% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 100-144-4, - 26.23 Units (421 Units Staked, - 6.23% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Thursday, 9 October 2014
International Football Picks 2014 (October 9-14)
I don't think I will ever become a fan of these international breaks that seem to come just when it feels like domestic football is settling down into some sort of momentum, but it looks like we will have to deal with it for the foreseeable future. The expanded European Championships means it is almost pointless for the top nations to compete in these qualifiers knowing the top two teams in each section will automatically qualify for France 2016, while the third place teams have at least a Play Off to decide if they will do the same.
After England beat Switzerland away from home last month, I did tweet that it seems almost pointless for them to play the remainder of their games as I find it very difficult to perceive a scenario where they won't qualify now. Games against San Marino and Estonia won't exactly set the temperature rising and it does feel like a long-winded process to achieve what we are likely to see.
Changes have to be made with how these blocks are set during the season with another break due in November, but at least after that we will get a clear run of domestic football for a few months.
With the mismatches that generally take place during these breaks, finding the right picks aren't always easy. There is no guessing how many picks I will make over the next week, but I will pool together all I do make here over that time period.
England v San Marino Pick: While there is no pressure on England in terms of whether they are going to win this game, there has to be some pressure on the team from the FA to produce a big performance in this one. There has been a lot of talk about filling the seats at Wembley Stadium for a string of qualifiers that are far from appealing, so any kind of struggle against San Marino is not likely to bring the fans back who are disappointed in the manner of the exit from the World Cup in Brazil.
Beating San Marino heavily is not going to get fans rushing out to buy tickets for the next qualifiers at Wembley, but struggle to see off the minnows and it will be really difficult to shift tickets. James Milner has urged his team-mates to focus after England took their time to score the first goal against San Marino when they met in 2012, but they are facing a goalkeeper that could be making his debut and England should be able to score freely in this one.
England are not a great international side- in fact they are far from being a very good side to be honest, but they picked up an impressive win in Switzerland and need to take control of this Group from here.
They have enough pace in the forward positions to give San Marino some real problems and as much as the latter have become more competitive in their recent away games, England could run away with this if they score early.
The Ukraine beat San Marino 9-0 in the last set of qualifiers and the likes of Finland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia have scored at least seven goals against them over the last four years in home qualifiers.
England have 'only' scored 11 goals in two home games against San Marino in the past, but I will look for them to get a little closer to the eight they scored in the game in San Marino in 2013 and cover a big spread.
Liechtenstein v Montenegro Pick: Montenegro have been a familiar name to those in England after pushing them close to qualification a couple of times in a row, but they should be looking at the new format of the European Championships as their chance to earn a place at a major international tournament.
Facing a team that has lost 10 straight games, including the last four in a row at home, should be one that Montenegro take advantage of, although it has to be said that Liechtenstein are a tougher prospect than many of the 'minnows' of European football.
Liechtenstein may have lost 6 of their last 9 home qualifiers, but they have held the likes of Latvia and Slovakia here and also beaten Lithuania so this is far from a pushover for Montenegro. The latter have also won just 3 of their last 9 away qualifiers, but they would be expected to win here if they have real ambitions of playing in France in a little under two years time.
A tough battle looks to be on the cards for Montenegro, but the basis of their chances of success may come from whether they can keep a clean sheet here. All 4 of their victories away from home in the last two qualifying campaigns have come without conceding a goal and Liechtenstein have only scored in 1 of their last 6 losses in their home qualifiers.
The price was more attractive earlier in the week, but Montenegro to win without conceding a goal is still looking a good shout.
Lithuania v Estonia Pick: Both of these nations have earned three points from their opening game of this section and the winner of this one will certainly feel they can push on and potentially finish in one of the top three positions in the Group.
With the way the fixtures have come out, either team could be in a strong position by the end of the next round of fixtures to be played in November and this should be a nervy game knowing what is potentially on the line for the teams.
Lithuania haven't been winning as many home games in qualifiers as they would have liked over the last four years, but Estonia reverted back down to type with their poor away results in the World Cup qualifiers. They did at least play better in the last European Championship qualifiers when Estonia came so close to making it to the first major international tournament, but it'll be a big ask to do that from this Group.
The surprise win over Slovenia has given Estonia a real opportunity, but I am not convinced they can back that up. Lithuania might have a little more about them at home and they could make the odds against price come up while putting themselves in a very good position in the Group before hosting Slovenia on Sunday.
Slovenia v Switzerland Pick: This is going to be a very tough test for Switzerland who would dearly love to get back to winning ways and keep tabs on those teams chasing the top two berths in the Group. They will have the same motivation as Slovenia who will also be desperate to recover from what will be seen as a poor start in a loss at Estonia and so both teams should be playing with a few nerves.
The big difference could be the experience of Switzerland having beaten Slovenia twice in the last set of qualifiers including a win in Slovenia just two years ago. The Swiss have enjoyed recent away qualifiers with 4 wins from their last 5 on their travels and they have enough of an attacking threat to pick up a vital three points here.
Slovenia won't be easy to see off, but they have lost half of their last 10 home qualifiers including that defeat to Switzerland. The home side have won the other half of those 10 games so they don't do many draws here and picking a winner does have me leaning towards Switzerland at a decent price.
MY PICKS: England - 6 English Handicap (includes draw) @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Montenegro Win to Nil @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lithuania @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Switzerland @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
After England beat Switzerland away from home last month, I did tweet that it seems almost pointless for them to play the remainder of their games as I find it very difficult to perceive a scenario where they won't qualify now. Games against San Marino and Estonia won't exactly set the temperature rising and it does feel like a long-winded process to achieve what we are likely to see.
Changes have to be made with how these blocks are set during the season with another break due in November, but at least after that we will get a clear run of domestic football for a few months.
With the mismatches that generally take place during these breaks, finding the right picks aren't always easy. There is no guessing how many picks I will make over the next week, but I will pool together all I do make here over that time period.
England v San Marino Pick: While there is no pressure on England in terms of whether they are going to win this game, there has to be some pressure on the team from the FA to produce a big performance in this one. There has been a lot of talk about filling the seats at Wembley Stadium for a string of qualifiers that are far from appealing, so any kind of struggle against San Marino is not likely to bring the fans back who are disappointed in the manner of the exit from the World Cup in Brazil.
Beating San Marino heavily is not going to get fans rushing out to buy tickets for the next qualifiers at Wembley, but struggle to see off the minnows and it will be really difficult to shift tickets. James Milner has urged his team-mates to focus after England took their time to score the first goal against San Marino when they met in 2012, but they are facing a goalkeeper that could be making his debut and England should be able to score freely in this one.
England are not a great international side- in fact they are far from being a very good side to be honest, but they picked up an impressive win in Switzerland and need to take control of this Group from here.
They have enough pace in the forward positions to give San Marino some real problems and as much as the latter have become more competitive in their recent away games, England could run away with this if they score early.
The Ukraine beat San Marino 9-0 in the last set of qualifiers and the likes of Finland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia have scored at least seven goals against them over the last four years in home qualifiers.
England have 'only' scored 11 goals in two home games against San Marino in the past, but I will look for them to get a little closer to the eight they scored in the game in San Marino in 2013 and cover a big spread.
Liechtenstein v Montenegro Pick: Montenegro have been a familiar name to those in England after pushing them close to qualification a couple of times in a row, but they should be looking at the new format of the European Championships as their chance to earn a place at a major international tournament.
Facing a team that has lost 10 straight games, including the last four in a row at home, should be one that Montenegro take advantage of, although it has to be said that Liechtenstein are a tougher prospect than many of the 'minnows' of European football.
Liechtenstein may have lost 6 of their last 9 home qualifiers, but they have held the likes of Latvia and Slovakia here and also beaten Lithuania so this is far from a pushover for Montenegro. The latter have also won just 3 of their last 9 away qualifiers, but they would be expected to win here if they have real ambitions of playing in France in a little under two years time.
A tough battle looks to be on the cards for Montenegro, but the basis of their chances of success may come from whether they can keep a clean sheet here. All 4 of their victories away from home in the last two qualifying campaigns have come without conceding a goal and Liechtenstein have only scored in 1 of their last 6 losses in their home qualifiers.
The price was more attractive earlier in the week, but Montenegro to win without conceding a goal is still looking a good shout.
Lithuania v Estonia Pick: Both of these nations have earned three points from their opening game of this section and the winner of this one will certainly feel they can push on and potentially finish in one of the top three positions in the Group.
With the way the fixtures have come out, either team could be in a strong position by the end of the next round of fixtures to be played in November and this should be a nervy game knowing what is potentially on the line for the teams.
Lithuania haven't been winning as many home games in qualifiers as they would have liked over the last four years, but Estonia reverted back down to type with their poor away results in the World Cup qualifiers. They did at least play better in the last European Championship qualifiers when Estonia came so close to making it to the first major international tournament, but it'll be a big ask to do that from this Group.
The surprise win over Slovenia has given Estonia a real opportunity, but I am not convinced they can back that up. Lithuania might have a little more about them at home and they could make the odds against price come up while putting themselves in a very good position in the Group before hosting Slovenia on Sunday.
Slovenia v Switzerland Pick: This is going to be a very tough test for Switzerland who would dearly love to get back to winning ways and keep tabs on those teams chasing the top two berths in the Group. They will have the same motivation as Slovenia who will also be desperate to recover from what will be seen as a poor start in a loss at Estonia and so both teams should be playing with a few nerves.
The big difference could be the experience of Switzerland having beaten Slovenia twice in the last set of qualifiers including a win in Slovenia just two years ago. The Swiss have enjoyed recent away qualifiers with 4 wins from their last 5 on their travels and they have enough of an attacking threat to pick up a vital three points here.
Slovenia won't be easy to see off, but they have lost half of their last 10 home qualifiers including that defeat to Switzerland. The home side have won the other half of those 10 games so they don't do many draws here and picking a winner does have me leaning towards Switzerland at a decent price.
MY PICKS: England - 6 English Handicap (includes draw) @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Montenegro Win to Nil @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lithuania @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Switzerland @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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