NBA Finals Picks 2016 (June 2-19)

NBA Finals 2016: Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers

When the Play Offs began around six weeks ago, the feeling that we were going to see a repeat of the NBA Finals of 2015 were even stronger than at the start of the season. Back in September most would have called for the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers to meet in the Finals once again and both teams come into this series with full belief they are better than the editions of last season.

I think there is a real argument for both Golden State and Cleveland to win the NBA Championship, but my overall feeling at the beginning of this series is that the Warriors have a little too much and will win in six games.

I am looking forward to this series over the next couple of weeks with Game 1 beginning on Thursday 2nd June at The Oracle Arena.

Thursday 2nd June

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: It took the Golden State Warriors six games to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals last season, but both teams have changed since that series. While the Cleveland Cavaliers were battering their way through the Eastern Conference, the Golden State Warriors might be more battle hardened after coming back from 3-1 down to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals.

That win over the Thunder is the biggest obstacle that the Golden State Warriors have faced in two seasons, but they showed why they were considered the favourites to retain their title at the beginning of the season. The Warriors have plenty of shooting at their disposal and it is tough to win four out of seven against them, although it will be interesting to see if there is an emotional fatigue from that series.

We will find out in Game 1 of the NBA Finals as the Cleveland Cavaliers have had a few more days to rest up after disposing of the Toronto Raptors in six games. The two defeats on the road in that series might be a concern for Cleveland, but they are far healthier than last season when they pushed Golden State to six games and that should lead to a few people thinking they can earn revenge for that loss.

This time LeBron James will have both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love to help him try to bring the title back to Cleveland, while Channing Frye has been huge off the bench. Cleveland are also under new guidance with Tyronn Lue facing Golden State as Head Coach for the first time and he has promised to push the pace while the Cavaliers have some of the best three point shooting in the Play Offs.

That will be matched by Golden State who are the team who are not just defending Champions, but the team with 73 regular season wins behind them. The NBA Championship will validate them as potentially the best team of all time and both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have been shooting lights out from the field, especially from three point range.

Three point shooting will be key for both teams, but I think the edge here is the Golden State Defensive performances. The first game of the series has every chance of being a low scoring one as Cleveland and Golden State focus on making sure they lock down Defensively and my lean is towards backing the under total points.

We have seen the under go 7-3-1 in the last eleven games between these teams and it is also 4-1-1 in the last six in Golden State. With the rest between games, it might take a little time for the shooters to get going in this one and this total might be slightly on the high side.


Sunday 5th June
The first Game of the NBA Finals was played only a couple of days ago, but it seems the world is a lot sadder of a place after the news came through that Muhammad Ali had passed away aged 74.

This is a man that was far more than a boxer and who was a huge inspiration for every black athlete that has come through since Ali ruled the world in the late 70's including so many who now play in the NBA.

While Ali's passing has dominated everyone's thoughts, the NBA Finals will go on as Game 2 is set to go at The Oracle Arena on Sunday.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: The rivalry between Steph Curry and LeBron James is beginning to pick up and it is fitting that such a word like 'legacy' is being used regularly.

Legacy.

Game 2 is being played a day after 'The Greatest' legacy was ended and LeBron James is more than a little aware that his place in history could be decided by the rest of this series. If the Cavaliers are to lose, James will fall to 2-5 in NBA Finals and there is a feeling that Curry will become the bridge from Michael Jordan to Kobe Bryant to this generation.

Curry will have a big claim if he moves to 2-0 in NBA Finals and both times those wins came against LeBron James and his Cleveland Cavaliers. It would put the Golden State Warriors into 'dynasty' potential as they would go into the next NBA season as the favourites to win their third title in a row and all of this is overshadowing this series with so much on the line.

The Cleveland Cavaliers will be looking to make some adjustments from Game 1 which basically is improving the bench play and also looking to reduce turnovers. LeBron James had decent numbers, but both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have room for improvement, while the vaunted three point shooting of the Play Offs was not quite up to the level required.

I do think the Warriors Defensive schemes are under-rated, but Cleveland also put up too many misses in the paint which they will expect to drop.

One thing Golden State will be looking to do is to open the shooting lanes for Curry and Klay Thompson who didn't have the biggest lines in Game 1. Both were being hassled as they were in the Oklahoma City series, but they showed they can get loose and Cleveland have to be aware of that while also trying to slow down a bench that produced 45 points for the Warriors.

The rebounding edge has to be won by Cleveland again if they are going to have a chance to square this series before heading home, while they need to play consistent Defense to keep Golden State from getting away from them.

It is tough to pick a winner between these teams on the spread because I am expecting a desperate Cleveland team to come out, but can't ignore how good Golden State are and how well they seem to match up with the Cavaliers.

Instead I will go back to the over/under market and look for another game that fails to get over the total points expected by the layers. The 'under' play is now 8-3-1 in the last twelve overall between these teams and also 5-1-1 in the last seven played in The Oracle Arena. The layers have trimmed the points from Game 1, but I still believe the Defensive schemes can slow the Offenses just enough to stay under this total.


Wednesday 8th June
The Cleveland Cavaliers have taken a verbal hammering in the press and by the fans after another disappointing showing in their Game 2 loss to the Golden State Warriors.

Some are calling for a sweep and others have said no matter what happens in Game 3 and 4, which are playing in Cleveland, that the Warriors are too good for Cleveland.

Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3 Pick: Back to back losses would be one thing, but the way the Golden State Warriors blew out the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 is a big concern for this NBA Finals. Many are off the Cleveland bandwagon after their cruise through the Eastern Conference Finals and the fans have to hope the three days between games can change the momentum of this series.

The Warriors are simply doing everything better than the Cavaliers when you break down the stats from the first two games. This is without Steph Curry and Klay Thompson firing to the level they did in the final three games against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but other players are finding the space to exploit.

Draymond Green had a big Game 2 and the bench continues to show the depth that helped them put away Cleveland in Game 1. In Game 2 it was much more to do with the starters dominating Cleveland with a 20-2 run in the middle of the Second Quarter seeing them move clear of the Cavs and never looking back as the role players got a chance to play through the Fourth Quarter.

Pushing the pace hasn't worked for Cleveland and they have to make the adjustments before this series is beyond their reach if it isn't already. The speed is actually helping Golden State who are faster and able to transition much better, while Cleveland will likely be missing Kevin Love for Game 3 as he continues in the concussion protocol.

LeBron James has not reached the level of the series last year and he has had little help around him. Kyrie Irving is not being efficient enough with his play while JR Smith and Channing Frye have not got the three point shot dropping as they had in the post-season before the Finals.

Some of that is down to the Golden State Defense, but the missed shots that Cleveland have had has knocked their own confidence.

Being back at home might change that even without Love in the line up for the Cavaliers. However I can't back this desperate team because Golden State have looked better all around and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they win Game 3 and perhaps even close the Finals later this week.

I still like the under play in this series though. The layers have chopped the points by around 5 points from Game 1, but the under has hit in both opening games and moved to 9-3-1 in the last thirteen games between Golden State and Cleveland. This is hard to ignore as Defensively the two teams can slow down the Offenses enough as they have shown and I will back the under play for a third time in the series.


Friday 10th June
There has been plenty of people trying to dissect the Golden State Warriors performance in Game 3 and the focus has shifted from LeBron James to Steph Curry as the MVP that is failing to produce the goods.

The Warriors were not happy with the way they played in Game 3, while Cleveland will be looking for more of the same so they can send the series back to The Oracle Arena with the NBA Finals tied at 2-2.

Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Pick: It hasn't been too often that a team that has won the most games in NBA history in the regular season will be described as being 'soft' but that was the word bandied around by many after the Golden State Warriors were blown out in Game 3. It wasn't from the media either, but the management and playing staff all used that adjective when talking about Game 3 and you have to think a bigger effort will be made from the off.

Let's face it, the Cleveland Cavaliers bull-rushed Golden State early in both halves which made this a blow out and they looked a much better team without Kevin Love. That's no criticism of Love as a player, but this series looks like one where his biggest impact may come off the bench assuming he passes the concussion protocol in time for Game 4.

With only the two days between games this time, it would be a surprise if Love is rushed back considering how well Cleveland played without him.

There will be adjustments though and I can't see Golden State coming out as cold on both ends of the floor as they were in Game 3. Only once this season has this team suffered back to back losses and that was in the Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City, but generally they have bounced back with the win.

Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have to get going Offensively to open up the spacing for the other players on the team, while the bench production is still a strength for Golden State. And you have to think a much more physical team will come out in Game 4 to try and knock Cleveland out of their rhythm.

This also looks to be a big ask for Kyrie Irving to produce the same level that he was able to in Game 3 when he came out and was hot from the field. While I like Irving as a player, finding his rhythm shooting the ball has been difficult for him against Golden State and I think Game 3 might have been an exception to prove the rule.

It is clear the public have jumped on the Cleveland bandwagon with most of the action going on the home team and the spread is leaning more towards the Cavaliers than it did in Game 3. I just don't think they match up that well with Golden State and it is hard to ignore the fact that the Warriors had won seven in a row before the loss last time out.

In my opinion there is much more room for improvement from Golden State than there is for Cleveland the Warriors were close at times to making Game 3 a lot more competitive than it ended up being. They have to come out better in both halves as they can't afford to be down by nineteen points after the First Quarter as they were in Game 3 but this is a team that has proven they can react to adversity all through the season.

I love LeBron James and would love to see him win a title again- while my heart is pulling for him, my head says that the Warriors were just caught out in Game 3 and I expect a big reaction from them. I will take Golden State with the points.


Monday 13th June
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: The series looks just about over after the Golden State Warriors put away Cleveland in Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead. No team has ever lost that lead in the NBA Finals and the Golden State Warriors, who have the most single season wins in League history, are very unlikely to let this slip.

The big news going into Game 5 was the suspension of Draymond Green for hitting LeBron James in the crown jewels. That has seen the layers shrink the spread for Game 5 but I am not sure it is enough for the Cavaliers to cover, especially if Game 4 was an indication of Steph Curry coming back to the fore.

Of course Green is a big miss for the Warriors, but this is a team that certainly has the 'next man up' mentality that makes them a great Champion. Who steps in is less clear, but the Warriors will feel a deep bench will allow them to make the rotations to make up for the absence of one of their better players in the series.

Green has been hitting his shots when the 'Splash Brothers' have been locked down but someone else might take over that part of the game when getting the open looks Green has been in the series.

For Cleveland it is all about trying to rally one last time but they look a team that knew the game was up in Game 4. Bringing it back home for Game 6 would be a big achievement considering they have been blown out here twice in the series, but it is difficult to see how they do that.

I expect they will have their moments, but Golden State look like they have bolted the stable and barring a mammoth game from James, this should be the NBA Finals closed on Monday. The spread looks tempting to back Golden State to cover and I think they will do that with some big plays in the Fourth Quarter providing the knock out blow to the Cavaliers and ending a great season for the Warriors where they have re-written the history books.


Thursday 16th June
Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 6 Pick: Game 5 will go down in the history books thanks to the performances LeBron James and Kyrie Irving put together to help the Cleveland Cavaliers extend this series. The Cavaliers will need more of the same if they are going to upset the Golden State Warriors and get this series back for a Game 7 in California.

Actually I am a little surprised that it won't actually be an upset as the Cleveland Cavaliers are the favourites in Game 6. They are at home and are coming off a fantastic performance, but the Golden State Warriors don't do too many back to back losses and they do have Draymond Green back from suspension.

Andrew Bogut's injury is a blow as I am not sure Golden State will be able to have the success on the boards without him, but the feeling is that Cleveland will need another special performance to keep this series going. That is hard to really get a feel for because Game 5 was so historic in the way James and Irving played and I think Golden State will be much better in Game 6 having closed out the 2015 NBA Finals in the same Arena.

Green's return will bring in more energy and there were other factors in Game 5 that are going to be hard to imagine happening in Game 6. The Warriors struggled mightily from the three point range in the second half, while Kyrie Irving was making every shot that he was taking despite being under intense pressure from the Defensive shape in front of him.

Will both those separate issues happen again? It is hard to imagine and both need to happen for the Golden State Warriors to fall into a 3-3 spot in my opinion.

Losing Bogut is a problem, but there is more depth that the Warriors can rely upon rather than the Cavaliers, and I expect a much more focused performance. I will take the points in this one and look for Golden State to keep this very close throughout and perhaps make a few more shots at the end of the Fourth Quarter to win this Game 6.


Sunday 19th June
If you had told me on June 11th that this series would need every game that had been set to decide it, I would have thought you were mad. The Golden State Warriors looked in a position that Cleveland would have found impossible to peg back, but the Cavaliers have done that and now look to close out what would be a remarkable NBA Finals win.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors Game 7 Pick: After looking by far the strongest team in the series after four games, the Golden State Warriors have blown two opportunities to win back to back titles. Some of that is down to their own issues, but they also didn't account for LeBron James taking over the series in the manner he has, while also receiving able support from Kyrie Irving.

LeBron James has been immense and helping Cleveland win this series will put him right alongside Michael Jordan in the talk of being the best player of all time. It would definitely put him on the Mount Rushmore of the NBA and the way James has played in the last two games makes him a real threat to back to back titles for the Golden State Warriors.

It is a big issue that Andre Iguodala might be limited in the way he can perform in this one, although he will suit up for Game 7. His Defensive prowess has given James problems in the past, but not being at 100% would be a big blow for the Warriors in the form LeBron is currently producing.

Losing rim protector Andrew Bogut has proved a bigger deal than most would have imagined while Harrison Barnes is not hitting his shots. Steph Curry will play despite some calls for a suspension after he was thrown out of Game 6 for throwing away his mouthpiece which ended up hitting a fan at courtside.

The momentum is behind Cleveland and the question is for the Golden State Warriors to answer if they can battle back and win this series. The Warriors are playing at home where they are very difficult to beat and it also has to be remembered that Steve Kerr has not lost three games in a row as Head Coach of Golden State which perhaps has me leaning towards the Warriors.

But how can you ignore how well Cleveland have played in Game 5 and Game 6 while facing elimination? With LeBron James looking to prove he is still the face of the NBA and the support he is getting that was missing last year and you begin to feel the long wait for a title in Cleveland could be coming to an end.

It could be a perfect storm coming together for the Cavaliers as they face a banged up team but the key will be to keep the three point shooting of the Warriors in check. They have managed that in the last two games and keeping their cool might lead the Cavaliers to the title they want so desperately.

This looks like it will be really close so I can only think of taking the points and backing the Cavaliers to keep this one close.

MY PICKS: 02/06 Golden State-Cleveland Under 210.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
05/06 Golden State-Cleveland Under 208.5 Total Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
08/06 Cleveland-Golden State Under 205.5 Total Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
10/06 Golden State Warriors + 2 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
13/06 Golden State Warriors - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
16/06 Golden State Warriors + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
19/05 Cleveland Cavaliers + 5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

NBA Finals Update: 4-3, + 0.68 Units

NBA Conference Finals Picks 2016 (May 16th-30th)

I've been on my honeymoon for the past couple of weeks so I have not been on the internet as much as usually is possible, which has also meant taking a break from the picks.

The NBA First Round and Conference Semi Finals were completed in the time I have been away and the Western Conference Finals have begun with a big surprise in Game 1 as the Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Golden State Warriors on the road.

That looks like being a very good series, but the Eastern Conference Finals begin on Tuesday with most expecting the well-rested Cleveland Cavaliers to be too strong for the Toronto Raptors in their best of seven series.


Tuesday 17th May
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 1 Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers have looked the team to beat in the NBA during the post-season as they are on the right side of injuries and look well-rested for a deep run. Last season both Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving missed extended time in the Play Offs, but both are playing well this time around and helping LeBron James, while the role players are battering down the doors from the three point arc.

The Cavaliers are looking very good and have won all eight post-season games played while seeing off Detroit and Atlanta. Of course the Toronto Raptors look their toughest challenge to date, but the Raptors have to show more than they have in their tight wins over Indiana and Miami.

The latter were banged up which meant the Raptors were expected to come through easier than they did and although winning Game 7's can build character, it also means they are going to be a little fatigued when taking on the best team in their Conference.

Toronto did win two of their three games with Cleveland, but the sole visit to Cleveland ended in defeat. The lay off may have cooled the three point shooting the Cavaliers have displayed, but I am not sure that is the case and I think Game 1 could be a high-scoring one.

The Raptors finally got something consistent going in their last game with Miami and Cleveland have been lights out from three point range while the over is 4-1 in the last five in the series. There does look to be enough scoring in both teams to help this one go over the 201.5 Total Points being asked and that is what I am backing to happen.


Wednesday 18th May
It was a frustrating end to Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals as a game that looked certain to go over the total points I expected failed to by just three points. A lot of that was down to the fact that both benches were cleared throughout the Fourth Quarter in a blow out win for the Cleveland Cavaliers and it is a big ask for the Toronto Raptors to recover on just a day of rest.

Before that we have Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals as the Golden State Warriors look to recover their 0-1 deficit to the Oklahoma City Thunder after a stunning Game 1 upset.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: Not many would have picked the Oklahoma City Thunder to beat the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Semi Finals, but even fewer would have predicted a win over the Golden State Warriors in the Conference Finals. Those views may have changed after their second half comeback in Game 1 to take a 1-0 lead in this series and take away home court advantage in the Conference Finals.

There has to be a reaction from the Golden State Warriors who have yet to be beaten in two straight games through the length of the season. They will be disappointed with the way they played the second half of Game 1 having been held to just 14 points in the Fourth Quarter, while Golden State struggled from the three point range in a manner they don't usually.

Of course the other side of the coin is the Thunder will know they can play a lot better than they did in Game 1 despite stealing home court. The combination of using Steven Adams and Enes Kanter against the small ball line up of the Warriors was very effective in Game 1, but it is a big ask to get the same production out of them in Game 2 with a desperate Golden State team taking to the court.

Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook played some big minutes in Game 1 too and with only a day of rest between that one and this one, I can see Golden State perhaps being able to hold onto a big lead through the game. It was a poor second half that cost them but the Warriors are 4-1 against the spread in the last five at home against Oklahoma City.

Desperation should see the Warriors produce their best and I like them to cover the spread in Game 2 and set up two big games in Oklahoma City in the coming days.


Thursday 19th May
Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals went the way most people would have expected it to go, especially in the second half of that one. The Golden State Warriors are back to 1-1 in the series with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but the big question is whether the Toronto Raptors can compete with the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals or whether the Cavs are going to run through another team in their Conference in a best of seven series.

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2 Pick: Game 1 was another blow out for the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Play Offs, but it was just Game 1. That is what the Toronto Raptors have to keep telling themselves while this battle hardened team have already dropped Game 1 in the first two Play Off series only to come through in seven games.

Of course those were against teams not of the standard of the Cleveland Cavaliers, but I do think the Raptors will have been able to overcome some emotional downtime from Game 1. That means I am expecting a lot more from their starters, especially the back court of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, than we saw in the first game.

Adjustments have to be made.

Toronto simply can't allow LeBron James to continuously make appointments with the rim as he did in Game 1, while they overplayed the three point shooting and didn't protect the paint. Better Defensive effort has to be expected, but going too far one way may see Cleveland get back to the barrage of three pointers that have impressed in the opening two series.

I picked the total points to be surpassed in the first game and we would have seen that in a closer game as both benches were cleared in the Fourth Quarter. I think both teams will shoot better from the three point line in this one and that could see Game 2 surpass the number which has shrunk by a few points although the sharps seem to be moving that number in a upward direction.


Tuesday 24th May
The Eastern Conference Finals have been anything but the blow out most of us would have expected as the Toronto Raptors tied up the series 2-2 with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday.

The Western Conference Finals have also captured the imagination with the Oklahoma City Thunder leading the Golden State Warriors 2-1, although it is the Warriors who remain the favourites to win the NBA Championship even now.

Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 4 Pick: This will be a memorable season for fans of the NBA having seen the Golden State Warriors smash the record for wins in the regular. However no one in the Bay Area are going to look back with pride if the Warriors do not add the NBA Championship to that record and join the likes of the 1996 Chicago Bulls as one of the best teams in history.

Winning the Championship is far from the mind at the moment as the Golden State Warriors were run out of town in Game 3 as they were blown out by the Oklahoma City Thunder. That means it is the Thunder who lead this best of seven series 2-1 as we head back to the Chesapeake Energy Arena for Game 4.

The Warriors have not lost back to back games this season but were once again knocked out of their stride by the Thunder in Game 3 as they were in the second half of Game 1. However, this is a familiar spot for this roster who were 2-1 down twice in the post-season last season only to win those series against Memphis and Cleveland in six games so that is a big warning for the Thunder.

On the other hand Oklahoma City have to feel good about where they are and know they can compete with this Golden State team. If Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook keep playing to the standards they have set and the big Thunder team can keep disrupting the timing on the three point shot for the Warriors, the upset is most definitely on.

I like Oklahoma City, but you can't ignore the 12-0 record Golden State have after a loss. The Warriors have Draymond Green available after he avoided a suspension and this is a team that has shown they can rally when under the gun. I will look for them to do that here and I like the Warriors to cover on the road and get the Western Conference Finals all tied up like the Eastern Conference.


Wednesday 25th May
Well, well, well, who would have thought the Golden State Warriors, a team that has won 73 regular season games and have the first unanimous MVP in the history of the NBA, would not be able to get into a position to defend their title from last season?

It isn't over for the defending Champions and I wouldn't want to rule them out with any confidence, but the Oklahoma City Thunder are in a very strong position at 3-1 up in the series.

The Thunder might just have the kryptonite for the Warriors having dismissed the San Antonio Spurs in six games in the Western Conference Semi Finals and Game 5 on Thursday is going to be memorable.

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 Pick: If someone had said one of the Conference Finals will be at 2-2 and one will be at 3-1, I am convinced most would have thought the latter was the Eastern Conference Finals. After two blow outs to open the series, the Cleveland Cavaliers were expected to roll through the Toronto Raptors but the latter are a gritty squad and have not read the script.

Not reading the script meant Toronto won both of their home games to get back to 2-2 in this series as Game 5 heads back to Cleveland.

I don't think anyone will doubt that the Raptors are much more comfortable on their home court and the key for Toronto is getting both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan to take their game onto the road. Doing that will give Toronto a much better chance of earning an upset on the road and especially making it a lot more competitive than the last two games in Cleveland have been.

In fact the last three games Toronto have played in the Quicken Loans Arena have seen them lose by at least nineteen points each time. However they should have been given a shot in the arm with the way the Raptors have played in the last couple of games in beating Cleveland at home.

On the other hand, Cleveland may feel they have missed some open shots in the last couple of games and they were close to getting back and beating Toronto in Game 4. I don't think the Cavaliers will feel they need a big adjustment, but they will be hoping Kevin Love can rediscover his shot which has been missing in the last couple of games. Getting more out of Love to go with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving should be enough for Cleveland to avoid the upset.

In saying that, I do think Toronto can make this a more competitive game than the first two in Cleveland. They are getting a healthy dose of points in Game 5 and I am looking for them to try and use the momentum behind them to keep this one competitive. The Raptors will need Cleveland to at least help out by missing some of the same looks they have been missing in Games 3 and 4, but getting double digits worth of points in a tense contest like this one might be too many for Cleveland to cover.


Thursday 26th May
The Eastern Conference Finals are on the brink of being concluded after the Cleveland Cavaliers blew out the Toronto Raptors at home yet again.

On Thursday the Golden State Warriors will be looking to extend their own Conference Finals as they trail the Oklahoma City Thunder by three games to one as they host Game 5 in a bid to keep the series alive.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: This is the last chance saloon for the 73 game winners Golden State Warriors as they return home 3-1 down in the Western Conference Finals. Twice in a row they have seen their identity taken away from them by the Oklahoma City Thunder as they have lost both games in the Chesapeake Energy Arena, and they will need the full support of the Oracle Arena in this one.

There have to be some adjustments made by Golden State to try and find some room for Steph Curry who has been harassed by the big Thunder Defenders in the Offensive side of the court. On the other side Russell Westbrook has given him too much to do Defensively and coupled together it is a big reason the Warriors are down in the series.

Another issue has been the poor play of Draymond Green as their inspirational player has found himself struggling to shoot the ball. The Thunder have also dominated the boards and have both Westbrook and Durant playing to an extremely high level.

Slowing down those two won't be easy, but Golden State have to find the open shots and knock them down. They have struggled to do that in the last two games which has led to blow out losses and twice the Thunder have held them to fewer than 100 points which suggests they are winning the Coaching battles.

We should see a desperate Golden State team and I think they are going to keep this series alive. Oklahoma City might be in great form, but I think the defending Champions can show they are still up for the fight and I like Golden State to cover on Thursday in Game 5.


Friday 27th May
The Golden State Warriors have stayed alive in the Western Conference Finals with a win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, but it was yet another close call for them. On Saturday they will bid to stay alive one more time and get the series back home for a Game 7, but it won't be easy.

Another team pushing for a Game 7 is the Toronto Raptors who were blown out for the third time in a row in Cleveland. They return home hoping to give themselves one more chance to head to Ohio and show they are better than what they have in the series in road games so far.

It is a big game for the Raptors on Friday as they host the Cavaliers for the last time this season.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors Game 6 Pick: For the fifth straight time in the Eastern Conference Finals, the home team held onto home court advantage. While the two Toronto Raptors wins have been tight at times, the Cleveland Cavaliers continue blowing out their opponents at home and will be heading to 'The North' hoping to complete the series win and move onto the NBA Finals.

Kevin Love was back to his best in the Game 5 win over Toronto and the Cavaliers will be looking for more of the same from him. In all honesty, Cleveland have had the shots in Game 3 and 4 but simply were not hitting them with Love being the main culprit so his return to form might be the edge the Cavs need to close the series.

It won't be easy though, far from easy in fact.

There is no doubting that Toronto thrive on their home crowd's excitement and this is a team that has been stronger at home than on the road for most of the season. In saying that they did drop Game 1 here in both First Round and Semi Final series so Toronto will be more than aware that they have to produce their best form if they are going to force a Game 7 back in Ohio on Sunday night.

Kyle Lowry in particularly has been a lot better at home so Toronto will be confident they can extend the series, but most of this series has been down to Cleveland and how hot they are from the field. The games in Toronto have seen them struggle with their shot but at home Cleveland have shown they are capable of getting going and I think they can ride some momentum into this one.

The Under is 4-1 in the series so far, but I am backing the teams to combine for at least 197 total points in this one. All of the games have come close to surpassing that total but Fourth Quarter blow outs have meant the starters are out of action and the misses have come by narrow margins. I don't think either team will blow out the other in Toronto in this Game 6 and I think the shooting both teams can produce will give this game every chance to surpass the total points being asked of them.

I will be hoping Kevin Love and Kyle Lowry both come out to play in this one to help that, but will back the over total points in this one.


Saturday 28th May
The Eastern Conference Finals are over thanks to yet another blow out in favour of the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Toronto Raptors. The big talent edge for the Cleveland Cavaliers finally shone through in 'The North' after four losses in Canada this season and now they can be well rested for the NBA Finals.

There will be an eye on the Western Conference Finals Game 6 which is played on Saturday as the Oklahoma City Thunder try to close out the series with the Golden State Warriors.

Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 6 Pick: There is a feeling that it all comes down to Game 6 for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Leading 3-2 in the series with the Golden State Warriors, you wouldn't fancy them to win a Game 7 back at The Oracle Arena if they have lost two in a row from 3-1 up in the series.

The Thunder were close to closing the show in Game 5 and clearly feel this is a match up that works for them against the defending Champions. While Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook produced big games for Oklahoma City, the supporting cast were not there for them in Game 5 like they were in Games 3 and 4, yet the Thunder will point out they were still competitive right down to the wire.

It will be all about more of the same for Billy Donovan and his players when they host Golden State in an Arena where they have won Games 3 and 4 by an average of 26 points per game. The layers in Vegas have shifted their sentiments by making the Thunder the favourites in a game for the first time in the series and Oklahoma City are still plenty confident despite the loss in Game 5.

That will inspire the Golden State Warriors you would feel but they have to keep up the momentum from Game 5 if they are going to get this series back home. Steph Curry made some big plays in that game, but he is still being harassed on the Offensive side by the Oklahoma City bigs, while Westbrook is looking to expose his Defensive limitations.

The Warriors did get a big game out of Draymond Green, but the emotions have to be contained to a certain extent if the Warriors are going to overcome a big challenge of coming back from 1-3 down in a series. I am finding it hard to keep the belief in the defending Champions because I think they have run into the one team that can match up really well with them and Donovan has beaten Steve Kerr so far in the coaching department.

I would have preferred people to still be unsure about the Thunder and have them come into Game 6 as the underdog, but I will back them as the small favourite to book their place in the NBA Finals.


Monday 30th May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Game 7 Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder were dominant through the first four games of the Western Conference Finals and took a deserved 3-1 lead in the series. A close loss in Game 5 was forgivable, but I do wonder where the emotional counter is at after blowing Game 6 and giving the Golden State Warriors new life.

The favourites to get back to the NBA Finals are the Warriors as they get to host Game 7 and the momentum is certainly behind them. A big issue in Game 6 was the three point shooting differential between the teams with Golden State outscoring Oklahoma City 63-9 from beyond the arc and that is not going to get the job done for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City actually had more baskets than Golden State in Game 6, but they blew a late lead after failing to execute down the stretch with turnovers being fatal to their chances of closing the series. Both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook had big games, but they will be expecting more from themselves if they are going to win at The Oracle Arena for a second time in the series and get their team into a second NBA Finals appearance.

Personally I think the Thunder might have missed their opportunity in Game 6 and it will be tough for them to pick themselves up from that defeat. They now head into a loud and passionate Arena where the Golden State Warriors are very difficult to beat, but the Thunder will know they have won here once already in the series and have to play a near enough perfect game to win this one.

The key for Oklahoma City is to try and play strong Defense against their hosts and try and slow them down, but the Warriors are also an improved team on that side against the Thunder. The Under is now 5-1 in the last six games between these teams at The Oracle Arena and it is 5-2 in the last seven overall and I am going to back the Defenses to be strong enough to hold two high-powered Offenses to fewer than 218 total points in this one as Game 7 tensions perhaps makes it tougher for the shooters to get going.

MY PICKS: 17/05 Cleveland-Toronto Over 201.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/05 Golden State Warriors - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
19/05 Cleveland-Toronto Over 198.5 Points @ 1.95 Betway (1 Unit)
24/05 Golden State Warriors - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/05 Toronto Raptors + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
26/05 Golden State Warriors - 7 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
27/05 Toronto-Cleveland Over 196 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
28/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
30/05 Golden State-Oklahoma City Under 218 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 4-5, - 1.28 Units

NBA Play Off First Round Picks 2016 (April 16-24)

The regular season is over and you have to be a little excited about the Play Offs. Usually the First Round is not really the most interesting of Rounds, but the Eastern Conference should produce a couple of really good series.

On the other hand, I can't really see any surprises in the Western Conference although that does mean the Semi Finals are going to be something special.

I am going to put the Picks from the First Round through to next Sunday on this thread and then I will create a new thread to cover those series that have perhaps moved into Games 5, 6 and 7.


A poor April has disappointed me to this point with some difficulties getting the right side through the changes that Head Coaches make, but I am excited about the Play Offs and looking for a strong start through this Round.


Saturday 16th April
The Game 1's of the First Round series will be played over the two days of this weekend with the first four games set for Saturday.

Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors Game 1 Pick: The Toronto Raptors might have produced a franchise best number of wins in the regular season, but early Play Off exits the last two seasons means they have doubters. Now the attention is on the Raptors to prove they are capable of challenging the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference by beating the Indiana Pacers in the First Round.

The Raptors have played Paul George really effectively in their regular season games and that is going to be a key for them again. I do think Toronto are perhaps underestimated from a Defensive standpoint with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan giving the back court most of the attention.

That scoring provided by Lowry and DeRozan is going to be important for Toronto especially as they might not get the same foul calls in the Play Offs as they experience in the regular season. This is still a good looking Toronto team and I do think they can make a very positive start to this First Round series compared with last season when they were swept out by the Washington Wizards.

A problem for Indiana all season has been the lack of consistent scoring outside of Paul George and if Toronto are able to lock down on the All-Star, it could be tough sledging for the Pacers. After pushing themselves to get into the Play Offs, I think Toronto might be ready to continue their dominance of this series as they bid to improve their 22-7 record against the spread in the last twenty-nine against them at home.


Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: Last season this was a Western Conference Finals, but the Houston Rockets only just got to return to the Play Offs this time around. The Golden State Warriors are coming in with much hotter form behind them having broken the regular season win record during the week, but the focus is on adding a Championship to that success.

The Warriors dominated the Houston Rockets through the regular season and they have the scoring power to put this team to the sword if they pick up some momentum through any game. However they will have to be wary of the players that the Rockets have with both James Harden and Dwight Howard having big Play Off experience behind them.

Houston will need the team to gel and play their A game every time they step on the court during the post-season, while also needing Golden State to perhaps have some blips through the series to earn the upset.

In saying that this does look a big spread at first glance with Golden State but I think they can cover in the first game with the Oracle Arena bouncing behind the regular season success. Two of their three wins over Houston would have seen them match or cover this number too and I think the Warriors can take advantage of a team that might have put too much in to getting into the Play Offs and who may see the best of as the series continues.


Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks Game 1 Pick: The Number 3 Seed in the Eastern Conference was not separated by the Number 6 Seed by anything on the records and these series should be tough. I expect nothing less when the Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks meet in this First Round and I don't think anyone would be surprised if we get into a Game 7 in a couple of weeks time.

It is hard to separate them even if Atlanta won three of the four regular season games. I do think Atlanta are perhaps a little better in all departments, but the Celtics play with such heart and determination that they can make up those differences.

The Hawks did win both games at home against Boston this season and would have covered this number in both of those wins. However the form in the final few games of the regular season probably gives Boston the edge and I think this will be a competitive Game 1 right through to the end.

Boston are 6-9 against the spread as the road underdog of 6 points or fewer and Atlanta are 10-6 against the spread as the home favourite in that range. I think the Hawks make the strong start to go ahead in the series with plenty more to come from Boston in the coming days.


Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: The Dallas Mavericks are a little banged up but they will at least have a couple of Point Guards ready to go when they face the high-flying Oklahoma City Thunder. That is key as they look to slow down Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, but it is a big ask for a Dallas team to knock them off in this series especially as most expected them to fall far short of the top eight.

A lot of the credit has to be given to Rick Carlisle who has urged his team to get their Defensive shape in order and hope that is enough for them to win games. They will look to slow the tempo in this one, but the Oklahoma City will look to impose their own style on proceedings.

The key to the whole series will be which of the teams can play with their style for the longest period. It will likely be the Thunder who can do that the most but this looks a big spread for them to cover in the opening game of the series.

I just think Dallas can play enough Defense to keep this close on the scoreboard with the Thunder happy enough to just find a win to put on the board and backing a double digit dog looks to be the call.


Sunday 17th April
The remaining Game 1's of the First Round series will be played through Sunday.

I have had a really crazy Saturday which has exhausted me and that means I will simply put down my picks for the games today in the 'My Picks' section below.


Monday 18th April
After a pretty poor Saturday, Sunday proved to be much better for the picks with a sweep of all four games.

Now we already move onto the Game 2's on Monday with the teams falling in Game 1 looking for a big response. There weren't too many surprises in the Game 1's over the weekend although the biggest was Toronto losing their home court advantage and it is a big test for them to get back to 1-1 before heading on the road for two games.

Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors Game 2 Pick: There have been plenty of doubters of the Toronto Raptors through the course of this season despite that team finishing with the Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference. Those voices would have been loudly declaring 'I told you so' on Saturday afternoon as Toronto lost their home court advantage to the Indiana Pacers following being swept out of the Play Offs in the First Round by Washington last season.

Last season saw the Raptors lose Game 1 and Game 2 at home before being dismissed in the nation's capital and the pressure is on the home team to avoid falling into a 0-2 hole again.

It was a bad Game 1 for Toronto as they struggled to shoot from the field and had far too many turnovers. Both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan couldn't really affect the game in the way they have for much of the regular season, while the Raptors Defensive unit couldn't slow down Paul George who had a huge second half.

The momentum might be with Indiana now who have won seven of their last eight games, although the one loss in that time did come here in the regular season. The zig-zag theory might not be as relevant as it used to be, but I think the Raptors will be much better in Game 2 as the Pacers perhaps take a breath having stolen home court. I will back Toronto for a second time in this First Round series and look for them to level the series before heading on the road.


Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: I thought the Oklahoma City Thunder were being asked to cover too many points in Game 1 but they blew away the Dallas Mavericks. The latter were perhaps a surprising Play Off team for many and they will have to be a lot better if they are going to make this a competitive series although another injury to JJ Barea is a blow.

It was the Thunder who imposed their game on the first one of this series and they will be looking to do the same again while again a double digit favourite. However it is up to Dallas to try and control the boards and to slow things down if they are going to get back into this one and I do think Rick Carlisle is smart enough to make the right adjustments for his team.

The spread doesn't really appeal to me in this one, but I have been looking at the total points market. The adjustments made by Carlisle are going to try and slow down the possessions each team has and that has shown up in Dallas games following blow out losses.

The under total points is 4-1 off a road blow out loss of 20 points or more and I think the Mavericks will look to lock down on that side of things. That should also make things closer on the scoreboard than Game 1, although Oklahoma City are capable of getting out and scoring points in quick bunches.

In saying that, the under is 2-0 in the last two games between these teams in Oklahoma City and I will look for this to be a third straight time that occurs.


Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: There is plenty of disharmony inside the Houston Rockets locker room and I do wonder how much belief they have to turn this First Round series around. Being blown out by the Golden State Warriors is something many teams have experienced in the last couple of seasons, but the Rockets need to show they have plenty of character if they are going to get back into this series.

Once again they will head into the Oracle Arena as the double digit underdogs, but I think there might be a reason to back the underdog this time around. First there is the question mark surrounding Steph Curry who was a little banged up after Game 1, although the likely MVP of the season has stated he will be suited up for Game 2.

However that might mean Curry is a little limited in terms of minutes he can play and getting off his shots in the manner expected. You also have to think James Harden and Dwight Howard are going to have a bigger impact in Game 2 than they did in Game 1 and this is a lot of points for the Rockets to be receiving considering they are 7-3 against the spread this season off a double digit loss on the road.

Of course going against the Golden State Warriors is never easy, especially in their home Arena, but the home team are 'only' 7-6 against the spread when favoured by 12.5 points or more at home this season. With Curry perhaps a little banged up, I will look for the Rockets to make this a much more competitive game than we saw on Saturday.


Tuesday 19th April
It was a second day in a row in the Play Offs where the sweep was completed as all three picks came in following a 4-0 Sunday.

Hopefully the run can continue on Tuesday as two more First Round series complete their Game 2 schedules.

Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks Game 2 Pick: Only a blown nineteen point lead prevented the Atlanta Hawks from running away with Game 1, but in the Play Offs a one point win is the same result as a fifty point win. The important thing for the Hawks was they managed to hold onto home advantage in this tough looking First Round series and will now look to hold serve for a second time.

That won't be easy against this young Boston Celtics team that look to be on the right path back to becoming a Championship contender. However the Celtics have lost Avery Bradley, most likely for the series, which is a big blow as they look to defend the likes of Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroeder.

Marcus Smart is a tough defender and will get the start in place of Bradley, but it does take away a little bit of depth when dealing with the Point Guards Atlanta have. You have to also think that Boston are going to need to be a lot better than they were in the first half of Game 1 that put them into that nineteen point deficit if they are going to steal home court before heading back home for two games in the coming days.

The problem for Boston is they are still trying to deal with a team that has looked stronger than them at everything they do well. Game 1 was close at the end, but I think Atlanta might be a little more focused when building a lead this time and I will back them to cover the spread and move into what will look a commanding 2-0 lead in the First Round series.


Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The Memphis Grizzlies were run out of town in Game 1 in the second half as the San Antonio Spurs locked down on them. Most anticipated a short series and this looks like being the case if Game 1 is anything to go by as the Grizzlies just have far too many injuries to deal with to be really competitive.

That has also seen the layers increase the spread from Game 1 to Game 2 and the Spurs are now being asked to cover close to twenty points which is a mammoth number. They are more than capable of doing that against this Memphis team, but it is a number that I want no piece of especially as I would expect the Grizzlies to make some adjustments from their blow out loss in Game 1.

One thing that I can't imagine changing too much is the San Antonio focus on the Defensive side of the court and I think that will be the key for the Spurs again to look after home court. They will try and take away what Zach Randolph wants to do and I think San Antonio will accept if someone else gets hot, but they won't allow Randolph to be the guy to take it to them.

That lock down Defensive shape is going to help the Spurs win Game 2 in my opinion but also makes it likely that we will see a second game in a row featuring under the total points. That number has shrunk slightly from Game 1 when the teams combined 180 total points and I think we can see another game where the San Antonio Defense restricts what Memphis can do.

I expect Memphis to try and be better on that side of the court too and this is a team that has seen the 'under' go 3-0 when the Grizzlies are off back to back blow out losses. I will look for this game to follow suit as I back the under total points being offered.


Wednesday 20th April
The run continues with the last nine picks all coming back as winners.

Let's be honest for a moment, that is not a sustainable run in the markets I am looking at, but I would love for the run to go on as long as possible. I also don't want to hit a losing run to ruin what has been a very productive start to the Play Offs this season and that is the key to remain focused and not get too encouraged by what has been a purple patch.

Charlotte Hornets @ Miami Heat Game 2 Pick: I picked the Miami Heat to cover in Game 1 but I couldn't have imagined it would have come in the manner it did. The Heat dominated Game 1 and the pressure is now on the Charlotte Hornets to respond and try to earn a split of the first two games before heading home for the next two.

The Miami Heat will very much be looking to defend home court as they haven't played as well on the road at the end of the season. They will once again look to dominate the paint with Hassan Whiteside a huge body at both ends of the court and then look for their experienced trio of Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson to spark the team.

Miami did split two home games with Charlotte during the regular season, but they have a strong 15-7-1 record against the spread against the Hornets in the last twenty-three games. The Heat will also look to the fact they are 6-2 against the spread off a blow out win of 20 points or more and a solid 13-7 against the spread when set as the home favourite of 6 points or fewer this season.

I do have a lot of respect for what Charlotte have done this season, but I think they might find themselves in a difficult spot in the series after Game 2 is also put into the books. I do think this will be a lot closer than Game 1, but I also think the Miami Heat can cover again.


Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2 Pick: The Detroit Pistons could have been upset by their near-miss at causing the upset in Game 1, but this is a squad that clearly have a lot of belief in their own game. They will be looking to give themselves another shot at stealing home court advantage when they play Game 2 at the Cleveland Cavaliers, but they will need some things to go for them if they are to achieve that upset.

In Game 1 the Pistons should incredibly well from the three point range and that has not always been the case for this team. Getting that hot shooting for a second consecutive game is hard to imagine, but the Pistons have to be efficient with what they produce to beat a team as good as Cleveland are.

The Cavaliers got big games out of their Big Three which helped them turn around a Fourth Quarter deficit and turned Game 1 into a win. They will be hoping for more out of the role players that Cleveland will need if they are going to win the NBA Finals, but the Big Three having another huge day might be enough to see off the Pistons for a 2-0 lead in the series.

However I still think this could be too many points for the Cavaliers to cover. They are just 7-13 against the spread when the team wins but fails to cover as the favourite, while they are 4-10 against the spread off two days rest. Detroit are also 9-2 against the spread in their last eleven games in Cleveland and have covered in all three games here this season and I will take the double digit points and look for the Pistons to be competitive again.


Portland Trail Blazers @ LA Clippers Game 2 Pick: The Portland Trail Blazers were not really considered a Play Off calibre team before the season began, let alone one that could reach as high as Number 5 in the Western Conference. However all of that will be for nought if they can't become more competitive than they were in their blow out loss in Game 1 to the LA Clippers, although this is a young team that has surprised through the course of the season.

It is a big test for Damien Lilliard and his supporting cast to win this First Round series, but that test increased in magnitude thanks to the manner in which they were seen off in Game 1. The Clippers pulled away in the second half and Doc Rivers will want to see his team ride that momentum into Game 2 and make a much faster start than they had in that one.

Personally I think Portland are going to show why they had such a surprising season and I think they can make this is a closer game. The Clippers have followed blow out losses of 20 points or more by going 3-6 against the spread in their next game, while they are 3-9 against the spread when playing with at least two days rest.

I also feel that the Trail Blazers have shown their youthful exuberance by recovering from blow out losses of 20 points or more by going 7-0 against the spread in their next game this season. The spread doesn't look the biggest, but the likes of Lilliard and CJ McCollum can get hot in the back court and I like the Trail Blazers to cover as the underdog.


Thursday 21st April
The stunning run in the Play Offs is over, but I am hoping to avoid a long losing run to make up for that success early in the First Round.

Hopefully Thursday's Game 3's will get the show back on the right road as a couple of tight series get into a pivotal two game stretch and the defending Champions look to put themselves on the brink of qualification for the Conference Semi Finals.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: Game 2 couldn't have ended in closer fashion as Steven Adams' put back game winner was ruled to have come after the buzzer. It felt like a pin had pricked the atmosphere in Oklahoma City as the Thunder lost their home court advantage in this First Round series against a banged up Dallas Mavericks team.

Things don't look to be improving for Dallas on the injury front with Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams both banged up out of Game 2. JJ Barea continues to be questionable and it is a big test for the Mavericks to replicate what they did in Game 2 and hold onto home court over the next two games.

They will need Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to have the same kind of difficult shooting night as they had in Game 2 if the Mavericks are going to win this one. Billy Donovan has to expect both players to be better in this one and Oklahoma City know their chances of winning the NBA Finals depends on Durant and Westbrook being efficient with the ball and with their shooting.

Oklahoma City have not been a great road favourite to back, especially not a big road favourite as they are here. However Dallas are banged up and this is a team that is 5-9 against the spread when having two days rest between games and just 3-8 against the spread when coming off a win as the road underdog.

The Thunder have won convincingly once this season and another which was much closer, but I like them to win this one by double digits. I expect the Thunder to be focused and can't see how a banged up Dallas team stay with them if Durant and Westbrook are better as I expect.


Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick: Some of the doubters were silenced as the Toronto Raptors recovered from their Game 1 setback by taking Game 2 to level this series. There is still work to be done for the Raptors as they try to recover home court advantage which was lost in Game 1 while Frank Vogel will try to make the adjustments to help the Indiana Pacers bounce back from their loss in the last game.

You may have thought the Pacers would be happy with their split from the first two games, but there was a feeling they missed an opportunity to go 2-0 up in the series. They have to stop feeling sorry for themselves as they are still to take the best shot that the Toronto Raptors can offer with DeMar DeRozan struggling in the first two games.

Paul George has been the star of the show for Indiana, but the big concern may be the injuries to the front court. That is because Jonas Valanciunas has been dominant on the boards for the Raptors and Indiana may have to play small ball in this one with Ian Mahinimi likely to sit in Game 3.

However I do have to respect the fact that the Pacers are 13-8 against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record this season. They are also 17-9 against the spread when trying to revenge a road loss and 11-3 against the spread when playing with two days rest.

I have to say my concern is that the Pacers have not been at their best as a small underdog at home, but I think the home team can be backed in this one. The Pacers have been a little more loose with the way they have played and getting some scoring support for George will give them every chance to move 2-1 up in the First Round series.


Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Game 3 Pick: Steph Curry missed Game 2 with a tender ankle, although the good news for the Golden State Warriors is there is no significant damage there. There is plenty of depth the Warriors have in their roster which means they can likely win this series without their best player, especially after beating Houston in the regular season without Curry and also in Game 2.

There seems to be plenty of money coming in for the Golden State Warriors with this spread very appealing to most, but the spread has shrunk which suggests the sharp money is on the Houston Rockets.

It is hard to follow that though with the Rockets on the brink of being broken apart in the off-season and a new Head Coach likely to be brought in. While they played better in Game 2, the Rockets still ended up comfortably losing that game even with a better performance from James Harden.

Holding onto home court is imperative if the Rockets are going to win this series and Houston are 4-3 against the spread as the home underdog of 6 points or fewer. However they are facing the defending Champions who are playing with plenty of confidence and looking to get Curry additional rest by winning this First Round series as quickly as possible.

The Warriors are also 7-2 against the spread as the road favourite of 6 points or fewer, and they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games in Houston. I hate when all the casual fans seem to be backing one team, but it is hard to get past this spread as I think the Warriors are the more cohesive unit and Houston might not have enough depth to stay with them.


Friday 22nd April
It has been a tough couple of days for the picks with a 2-4 record and I am looking to get that turned back around as soon as possible. I did make a couple of bad choices in that run, although I also feel I could have had a bit more luck which might have turned that into a 4-2 record.

I am not going to complain though as the first week of the Play Offs is still in a positive position, but hopefully I can conclude this week in the right way and make sure the First Round finishes on a high.

There are more Game 3's on the schedule on Friday before we head into the weekend and Game 4 action. Some of the series will come to a close in the coming days, but others are already assured of a Game 5.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Game 3 Pick: Game 2 was as close as Game 1 until the Third Quarter when the Detroit Pistons went cold from the field and that has put them in a very difficult position in this First Round series. It is imperative that the Pistons win Game 3 if they are going make this a competitive series as it will be almost impossible to peg the Cleveland Cavaliers back from a 0-3 hole with four games left to play.

That might have shifted the pressure onto the home team who struggled in the second half and haven't had a lot of time to prepare for this one. Stan Van Gundy wasn't too critical of his team for giving up a mammoth twenty three-pointers during Game 2 which matched a Play Off record high, but the Pistons have to find a way to slow down the role players like JR Smith if they are going to turn this one around.

Detroit had an anomaly in Game 1 with their own three point shooting, but that didn't come to the fore in Game 2 as they went back to their usual level from that range. The Pistons can't fall in love with that shot if they are going to find a way to turn this series around, but another key will be better shooting from the Free Throw line as they will look to get inside the paint.

The spread may look tempting to some with the belief that Cleveland avoided the upset in Game 1 and should sweep through the rest of the series, but I think that could be a trap line. Detroit are capable of beating the Cavaliers when the pieces fit and instead I am looking for this game to be a rare 'Over' in the Play Offs so far.

The limited rest should mean tired Defensive units and Cleveland are still pushing the pace which Detroit will have to respond to. Both teams have already had scoring success in the series while the 'Over' is 5-2 in the last seven between them. It is a big total, but another day of lights out three point shooting from one, or both, of these teams will give this Game 3 every shot of surpassing the number.


Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Pick: This was anticipated to be one of the closer series in the First Round, but the Atlanta Hawks have looked superior to the Boston Celtics through the first two games. They head to Beantown with a 2-0 lead and the Hawks have to be feeling confident they can make it 3-0 having won five in a row in the series.

That includes a win here at the TD Garden in December, and now they face a Boston Celtics team that has been banged up at just the wrong time as far as they are concerned. The Celtics were a trendy pick to make a big impact in the Play Offs as a young roster surprised many with their performances through the season, but the lack of a bona fide 'Star' might be costing them.

As I have said before, the Hawks are a better team in most facets of the game compared with Boston and they have been able to show that for the most part. Only a blown nineteen point lead in Game 1 prevented them from making it back to back blow out wins and the Hawks will head to Boston with a lot of confidence.

It does have to be noted that the Hawks have not been the most productive of road underdogs when given 3 points or fewer this season. However this is a team that has thrived on two days rest between games and coming off big home wins compared with Boston who are 4-10 against the spread when playing with a couple of days rest between games.

The shift to Boston is a concern because the Celtics are a much better team at home, but I think the road team are the better team overall in this series and I will back them with the points.


San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 3 Pick: I seriously thought Game 2 might have been more competitive after the Memphis Grizzlies were blown out in Game 1, but this is a team that has been reduced to rubble thanks to the injuries to key players. For the second time in a row, the San Antonio Spurs blew out the Grizzlies as they limited them to 74 points or fewer again and now they visit The Grindhouse hoping to take a complete grip of this First Round series.

It is important for the Spurs to get some rest ahead of the Conference Semi Finals as they have a couple of little niggles on the roster so I expect them to come out focused again. This isn't an easy place to play, but the Spurs have won their last two visits here by an average of 17 points per game and I am finding it hard to see how much this series will change.

Yes I do think Memphis will be inspired by their home crowd, but San Antonio are loaded with experience and I can't see that bothering them. They will continue to play stifling Defense on Zach Randolph and force one of the 'unknown' players to step up, but the Spurs are also rolling Offensively and I have no idea how the Grizzlies keep up with them.

The Spurs have been a solid road favourite to back when trying to cover big numbers and they should be well rested. As much as I think backing a double digit road favourite can lead to trouble, I do also believe San Antonio are capable of winning the NBA Finals and Memphis would do well to finish with a better record than Philadelphia if they played with this roster all season.

I will back San Antonio to move into a commanding 3-0 lead behind another big win and likely close out the series before returning home for rest and recuperation.


Saturday 23rd April
The one thing I wanted to avoid occurred on Friday with some bad luck attached to the three losing picks.

Hopefully that is the low point of the picks being made in the First Round and I can make a big recovery on Saturday.

Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick: The last two games have taught us one thing about this First Round series and that is that Indiana will have to play mistake free basketball if they are going to win this one. Turnovers killed the Pacers in Game 3 as they lost home court advantage they worked so hard to earn in Game 1 and that puts the home team in a desperate position.

The Pacers can't afford to drop another home game to fall into a 1-3 hole with three games left to play. However they have to find some support for Paul George, who was inefficient with his shots in Game 3, and Indiana have to find a way from Toronto controlling the boards.

Jonas Valanciunas has been dominant on both ends of the court and DeMar DeRozan may have come alive in the series in Game 3. The pressure is off the Toronto Raptors having taken back home court from Game 3, but they won't want to leave the door open for the Pacers to get back to 2-2 in this series to make it a best of three.

The Raptors have continued their dominance against the spread in Indiana as they improved to 9-1 in that spot, but I think Frank Vogel will make the right adjustments in this one. Vogel will need support from his players in looking after the ball, but the Pacers are better than they have shown in the last two games and I will back them to cover in this one as the home underdog.


Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets Game 3 Pick: The Miami Heat have looked far superior to the Charlotte Hornets in the first two games of the series. The latter have looked like the team that wasn't expected to make the Play Offs while the Miami Heat have shown the importance of the experience you get out of past Play Off successes.

Nicolas Batum is one such player for the Hornets from his time at the Portland Trail Blazers, but he has been lost for the series and that is only going to make things tougher for Charlotte. The Hornets have already struggled Defensively and Batum is their premier player in that regards so this looks a big blow to their chances of getting back into this series.

Charlotte will be desperate and we have already seen teams respond to this deficit in previous series when down 2-0 and returning home. I do think the Miami Heat are going to have to ride the early storm as they are unlikely to get into a dominant position early on as they have in the first two games of the series.

Once they ride out that storm I do think the Miami Heat will be able to get their teeth into this one. Steve Clifford will try and make the Defensive adjustments but Miami have been shooting lights out in the first two games and while they are not as strong on the road, I do think the Heat are worth backing as the road underdog to perhaps move into a commanding position in the series.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: The Dallas Mavericks bounced back from their Game 1 blow out loss by stealing home court advantage from the Oklahoma City Thunder. They will be looking to bounce back from another blow out loss in Game 3 or Dallas might be staring down the barrel when the series returns to Oklahoma City next week.

There is no disguising the fact that Oklahoma City have the better roster and Dallas are also banged up, but Carlisle is a very good Head Coach and is capable of getting the most out of his players.

Dallas can't allow Oklahoma City to start knocking down comfortable shots as they were in Game 3 when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were much better than in Game 2. Once the Thunder get going, they can be very difficult to stop as they have been in two of three games in the series and the key for the Mavericks is to not get into a shoot out with them.

Personally I think that will be difficult as these teams tend to play those high scoring games when they meet in Dallas. The Over is now 27-9-1 in the last thirty-seven games in Dallas and I can see this one going the same way as Game 3 as the Mavericks have to try and keep up with the Thunder.


LA Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 3 Pick: The LA Clippers have managed to secure a big second half run in the first two games of the series that the Portland Trail Blazers have been unable to match. Returning home should be important for the desperate Trail Blazers as they look to avoid a 0-3 hole, but it is a big test for them.

I can't really find an angle I am comfortable with in this game.

I can't imagine Damian Lilliard not getting going at some point in this series, but the Clippers look the superior team. There isn't much on the spread between them and while the gut feeling says the Portland Trail Blazers win, I can't really recommend backing them on that alone.

MY PICKS: 16/04 Toronto Raptors - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
16/04 Golden State Warriors - 13 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
16/04 Atlanta Hawks - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
16/04 Dallas Mavericks + 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
17/04 Detroit Pistons + 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
17/04 Miami Heat - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
17/04 San Antonio Spurs - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
17/04 LA Clippers - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
18/04 Toronto Raptors - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
18/04 Oklahoma City-Dallas Under 200 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/04 Houston Rockets + 13 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
19/04 Atlanta Hawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
19/04 San Antonio-Memphis Under 187 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Miami Heat - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
20/04 Detroit Pistons + 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
20/04 Portland Trail Blazers + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
21/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
21/04 Indiana Pacers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
21/04 Golden State Warriors - 5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
22/04 Detroit-Cleveland Over 200.5 Total Points @ 1.95 Betway (1 Unit)
22/04 Atlanta Hawks + 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
22/04 San Antonio Spurs - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
23/04 Indiana Pacers + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
23/04 Miami Heat + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
23/04 Dallas-Oklahoma City Over 201.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

First Round Update: 14-11, + 1.94 Units