I've been on my honeymoon for the past couple of weeks so I have not been on the internet as much as usually is possible, which has also meant taking a break from the picks.
The NBA First Round and Conference Semi Finals were completed in the time I have been away and the Western Conference Finals have begun with a big surprise in Game 1 as the Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Golden State Warriors on the road.
That looks like being a very good series, but the Eastern Conference Finals begin on Tuesday with most expecting the well-rested Cleveland Cavaliers to be too strong for the Toronto Raptors in their best of seven series.
Tuesday 17th May
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 1 Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers have looked the team to beat in the NBA during the post-season as they are on the right side of injuries and look well-rested for a deep run. Last season both Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving missed extended time in the Play Offs, but both are playing well this time around and helping LeBron James, while the role players are battering down the doors from the three point arc.
The Cavaliers are looking very good and have won all eight post-season games played while seeing off Detroit and Atlanta. Of course the Toronto Raptors look their toughest challenge to date, but the Raptors have to show more than they have in their tight wins over Indiana and Miami.
The latter were banged up which meant the Raptors were expected to come through easier than they did and although winning Game 7's can build character, it also means they are going to be a little fatigued when taking on the best team in their Conference.
Toronto did win two of their three games with Cleveland, but the sole visit to Cleveland ended in defeat. The lay off may have cooled the three point shooting the Cavaliers have displayed, but I am not sure that is the case and I think Game 1 could be a high-scoring one.
The Raptors finally got something consistent going in their last game with Miami and Cleveland have been lights out from three point range while the over is 4-1 in the last five in the series. There does look to be enough scoring in both teams to help this one go over the 201.5 Total Points being asked and that is what I am backing to happen.
Wednesday 18th May
It was a frustrating end to Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals as a game that looked certain to go over the total points I expected failed to by just three points. A lot of that was down to the fact that both benches were cleared throughout the Fourth Quarter in a blow out win for the Cleveland Cavaliers and it is a big ask for the Toronto Raptors to recover on just a day of rest.
Before that we have Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals as the Golden State Warriors look to recover their 0-1 deficit to the Oklahoma City Thunder after a stunning Game 1 upset.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: Not many would have picked the Oklahoma City Thunder to beat the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Semi Finals, but even fewer would have predicted a win over the Golden State Warriors in the Conference Finals. Those views may have changed after their second half comeback in Game 1 to take a 1-0 lead in this series and take away home court advantage in the Conference Finals.
There has to be a reaction from the Golden State Warriors who have yet to be beaten in two straight games through the length of the season. They will be disappointed with the way they played the second half of Game 1 having been held to just 14 points in the Fourth Quarter, while Golden State struggled from the three point range in a manner they don't usually.
Of course the other side of the coin is the Thunder will know they can play a lot better than they did in Game 1 despite stealing home court. The combination of using Steven Adams and Enes Kanter against the small ball line up of the Warriors was very effective in Game 1, but it is a big ask to get the same production out of them in Game 2 with a desperate Golden State team taking to the court.
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook played some big minutes in Game 1 too and with only a day of rest between that one and this one, I can see Golden State perhaps being able to hold onto a big lead through the game. It was a poor second half that cost them but the Warriors are 4-1 against the spread in the last five at home against Oklahoma City.
Desperation should see the Warriors produce their best and I like them to cover the spread in Game 2 and set up two big games in Oklahoma City in the coming days.
Thursday 19th May
Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals went the way most people would have expected it to go, especially in the second half of that one. The Golden State Warriors are back to 1-1 in the series with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but the big question is whether the Toronto Raptors can compete with the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals or whether the Cavs are going to run through another team in their Conference in a best of seven series.
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2 Pick: Game 1 was another blow out for the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Play Offs, but it was just Game 1. That is what the Toronto Raptors have to keep telling themselves while this battle hardened team have already dropped Game 1 in the first two Play Off series only to come through in seven games.
Of course those were against teams not of the standard of the Cleveland Cavaliers, but I do think the Raptors will have been able to overcome some emotional downtime from Game 1. That means I am expecting a lot more from their starters, especially the back court of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, than we saw in the first game.
Adjustments have to be made.
Toronto simply can't allow LeBron James to continuously make appointments with the rim as he did in Game 1, while they overplayed the three point shooting and didn't protect the paint. Better Defensive effort has to be expected, but going too far one way may see Cleveland get back to the barrage of three pointers that have impressed in the opening two series.
I picked the total points to be surpassed in the first game and we would have seen that in a closer game as both benches were cleared in the Fourth Quarter. I think both teams will shoot better from the three point line in this one and that could see Game 2 surpass the number which has shrunk by a few points although the sharps seem to be moving that number in a upward direction.
Tuesday 24th May
The Eastern Conference Finals have been anything but the blow out most of us would have expected as the Toronto Raptors tied up the series 2-2 with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday.
The Western Conference Finals have also captured the imagination with the Oklahoma City Thunder leading the Golden State Warriors 2-1, although it is the Warriors who remain the favourites to win the NBA Championship even now.
Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 4 Pick: This will be a memorable season for fans of the NBA having seen the Golden State Warriors smash the record for wins in the regular. However no one in the Bay Area are going to look back with pride if the Warriors do not add the NBA Championship to that record and join the likes of the 1996 Chicago Bulls as one of the best teams in history.
Winning the Championship is far from the mind at the moment as the Golden State Warriors were run out of town in Game 3 as they were blown out by the Oklahoma City Thunder. That means it is the Thunder who lead this best of seven series 2-1 as we head back to the Chesapeake Energy Arena for Game 4.
The Warriors have not lost back to back games this season but were once again knocked out of their stride by the Thunder in Game 3 as they were in the second half of Game 1. However, this is a familiar spot for this roster who were 2-1 down twice in the post-season last season only to win those series against Memphis and Cleveland in six games so that is a big warning for the Thunder.
On the other hand Oklahoma City have to feel good about where they are and know they can compete with this Golden State team. If Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook keep playing to the standards they have set and the big Thunder team can keep disrupting the timing on the three point shot for the Warriors, the upset is most definitely on.
I like Oklahoma City, but you can't ignore the 12-0 record Golden State have after a loss. The Warriors have Draymond Green available after he avoided a suspension and this is a team that has shown they can rally when under the gun. I will look for them to do that here and I like the Warriors to cover on the road and get the Western Conference Finals all tied up like the Eastern Conference.
Wednesday 25th May
Well, well, well, who would have thought the Golden State Warriors, a team that has won 73 regular season games and have the first unanimous MVP in the history of the NBA, would not be able to get into a position to defend their title from last season?
It isn't over for the defending Champions and I wouldn't want to rule them out with any confidence, but the Oklahoma City Thunder are in a very strong position at 3-1 up in the series.
The Thunder might just have the kryptonite for the Warriors having dismissed the San Antonio Spurs in six games in the Western Conference Semi Finals and Game 5 on Thursday is going to be memorable.
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 Pick: If someone had said one of the Conference Finals will be at 2-2 and one will be at 3-1, I am convinced most would have thought the latter was the Eastern Conference Finals. After two blow outs to open the series, the Cleveland Cavaliers were expected to roll through the Toronto Raptors but the latter are a gritty squad and have not read the script.
Not reading the script meant Toronto won both of their home games to get back to 2-2 in this series as Game 5 heads back to Cleveland.
I don't think anyone will doubt that the Raptors are much more comfortable on their home court and the key for Toronto is getting both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan to take their game onto the road. Doing that will give Toronto a much better chance of earning an upset on the road and especially making it a lot more competitive than the last two games in Cleveland have been.
In fact the last three games Toronto have played in the Quicken Loans Arena have seen them lose by at least nineteen points each time. However they should have been given a shot in the arm with the way the Raptors have played in the last couple of games in beating Cleveland at home.
On the other hand, Cleveland may feel they have missed some open shots in the last couple of games and they were close to getting back and beating Toronto in Game 4. I don't think the Cavaliers will feel they need a big adjustment, but they will be hoping Kevin Love can rediscover his shot which has been missing in the last couple of games. Getting more out of Love to go with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving should be enough for Cleveland to avoid the upset.
In saying that, I do think Toronto can make this a more competitive game than the first two in Cleveland. They are getting a healthy dose of points in Game 5 and I am looking for them to try and use the momentum behind them to keep this one competitive. The Raptors will need Cleveland to at least help out by missing some of the same looks they have been missing in Games 3 and 4, but getting double digits worth of points in a tense contest like this one might be too many for Cleveland to cover.
Thursday 26th May
The Eastern Conference Finals are on the brink of being concluded after the Cleveland Cavaliers blew out the Toronto Raptors at home yet again.
On Thursday the Golden State Warriors will be looking to extend their own Conference Finals as they trail the Oklahoma City Thunder by three games to one as they host Game 5 in a bid to keep the series alive.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: This is the last chance saloon for the 73 game winners Golden State Warriors as they return home 3-1 down in the Western Conference Finals. Twice in a row they have seen their identity taken away from them by the Oklahoma City Thunder as they have lost both games in the Chesapeake Energy Arena, and they will need the full support of the Oracle Arena in this one.
There have to be some adjustments made by Golden State to try and find some room for Steph Curry who has been harassed by the big Thunder Defenders in the Offensive side of the court. On the other side Russell Westbrook has given him too much to do Defensively and coupled together it is a big reason the Warriors are down in the series.
Another issue has been the poor play of Draymond Green as their inspirational player has found himself struggling to shoot the ball. The Thunder have also dominated the boards and have both Westbrook and Durant playing to an extremely high level.
Slowing down those two won't be easy, but Golden State have to find the open shots and knock them down. They have struggled to do that in the last two games which has led to blow out losses and twice the Thunder have held them to fewer than 100 points which suggests they are winning the Coaching battles.
We should see a desperate Golden State team and I think they are going to keep this series alive. Oklahoma City might be in great form, but I think the defending Champions can show they are still up for the fight and I like Golden State to cover on Thursday in Game 5.
Friday 27th May
The Golden State Warriors have stayed alive in the Western Conference Finals with a win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, but it was yet another close call for them. On Saturday they will bid to stay alive one more time and get the series back home for a Game 7, but it won't be easy.
Another team pushing for a Game 7 is the Toronto Raptors who were blown out for the third time in a row in Cleveland. They return home hoping to give themselves one more chance to head to Ohio and show they are better than what they have in the series in road games so far.
It is a big game for the Raptors on Friday as they host the Cavaliers for the last time this season.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors Game 6 Pick: For the fifth straight time in the Eastern Conference Finals, the home team held onto home court advantage. While the two Toronto Raptors wins have been tight at times, the Cleveland Cavaliers continue blowing out their opponents at home and will be heading to 'The North' hoping to complete the series win and move onto the NBA Finals.
Kevin Love was back to his best in the Game 5 win over Toronto and the Cavaliers will be looking for more of the same from him. In all honesty, Cleveland have had the shots in Game 3 and 4 but simply were not hitting them with Love being the main culprit so his return to form might be the edge the Cavs need to close the series.
It won't be easy though, far from easy in fact.
There is no doubting that Toronto thrive on their home crowd's excitement and this is a team that has been stronger at home than on the road for most of the season. In saying that they did drop Game 1 here in both First Round and Semi Final series so Toronto will be more than aware that they have to produce their best form if they are going to force a Game 7 back in Ohio on Sunday night.
Kyle Lowry in particularly has been a lot better at home so Toronto will be confident they can extend the series, but most of this series has been down to Cleveland and how hot they are from the field. The games in Toronto have seen them struggle with their shot but at home Cleveland have shown they are capable of getting going and I think they can ride some momentum into this one.
The Under is 4-1 in the series so far, but I am backing the teams to combine for at least 197 total points in this one. All of the games have come close to surpassing that total but Fourth Quarter blow outs have meant the starters are out of action and the misses have come by narrow margins. I don't think either team will blow out the other in Toronto in this Game 6 and I think the shooting both teams can produce will give this game every chance to surpass the total points being asked of them.
I will be hoping Kevin Love and Kyle Lowry both come out to play in this one to help that, but will back the over total points in this one.
Saturday 28th May
The Eastern Conference Finals are over thanks to yet another blow out in favour of the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Toronto Raptors. The big talent edge for the Cleveland Cavaliers finally shone through in 'The North' after four losses in Canada this season and now they can be well rested for the NBA Finals.
There will be an eye on the Western Conference Finals Game 6 which is played on Saturday as the Oklahoma City Thunder try to close out the series with the Golden State Warriors.
Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 6 Pick: There is a feeling that it all comes down to Game 6 for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Leading 3-2 in the series with the Golden State Warriors, you wouldn't fancy them to win a Game 7 back at The Oracle Arena if they have lost two in a row from 3-1 up in the series.
The Thunder were close to closing the show in Game 5 and clearly feel this is a match up that works for them against the defending Champions. While Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook produced big games for Oklahoma City, the supporting cast were not there for them in Game 5 like they were in Games 3 and 4, yet the Thunder will point out they were still competitive right down to the wire.
It will be all about more of the same for Billy Donovan and his players when they host Golden State in an Arena where they have won Games 3 and 4 by an average of 26 points per game. The layers in Vegas have shifted their sentiments by making the Thunder the favourites in a game for the first time in the series and Oklahoma City are still plenty confident despite the loss in Game 5.
That will inspire the Golden State Warriors you would feel but they have to keep up the momentum from Game 5 if they are going to get this series back home. Steph Curry made some big plays in that game, but he is still being harassed on the Offensive side by the Oklahoma City bigs, while Westbrook is looking to expose his Defensive limitations.
The Warriors did get a big game out of Draymond Green, but the emotions have to be contained to a certain extent if the Warriors are going to overcome a big challenge of coming back from 1-3 down in a series. I am finding it hard to keep the belief in the defending Champions because I think they have run into the one team that can match up really well with them and Donovan has beaten Steve Kerr so far in the coaching department.
I would have preferred people to still be unsure about the Thunder and have them come into Game 6 as the underdog, but I will back them as the small favourite to book their place in the NBA Finals.
Monday 30th May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Game 7 Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder were dominant through the first four games of the Western Conference Finals and took a deserved 3-1 lead in the series. A close loss in Game 5 was forgivable, but I do wonder where the emotional counter is at after blowing Game 6 and giving the Golden State Warriors new life.
The favourites to get back to the NBA Finals are the Warriors as they get to host Game 7 and the momentum is certainly behind them. A big issue in Game 6 was the three point shooting differential between the teams with Golden State outscoring Oklahoma City 63-9 from beyond the arc and that is not going to get the job done for the Thunder.
Oklahoma City actually had more baskets than Golden State in Game 6, but they blew a late lead after failing to execute down the stretch with turnovers being fatal to their chances of closing the series. Both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook had big games, but they will be expecting more from themselves if they are going to win at The Oracle Arena for a second time in the series and get their team into a second NBA Finals appearance.
Personally I think the Thunder might have missed their opportunity in Game 6 and it will be tough for them to pick themselves up from that defeat. They now head into a loud and passionate Arena where the Golden State Warriors are very difficult to beat, but the Thunder will know they have won here once already in the series and have to play a near enough perfect game to win this one.
The key for Oklahoma City is to try and play strong Defense against their hosts and try and slow them down, but the Warriors are also an improved team on that side against the Thunder. The Under is now 5-1 in the last six games between these teams at The Oracle Arena and it is 5-2 in the last seven overall and I am going to back the Defenses to be strong enough to hold two high-powered Offenses to fewer than 218 total points in this one as Game 7 tensions perhaps makes it tougher for the shooters to get going.
MY PICKS: 17/05 Cleveland-Toronto Over 201.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/05 Golden State Warriors - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
19/05 Cleveland-Toronto Over 198.5 Points @ 1.95 Betway (1 Unit)
24/05 Golden State Warriors - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/05 Toronto Raptors + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
26/05 Golden State Warriors - 7 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
27/05 Toronto-Cleveland Over 196 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
28/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
30/05 Golden State-Oklahoma City Under 218 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Conference Finals Update: 4-5, - 1.28 Units
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Showing posts with label Free Basketball Picks. Show all posts
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Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Monday, 8 February 2016
NBA Picks February 2016 (February 8-12)
At the end of this NBA week we will have the All-Star Game and this is the time of the season when basketball takes over the sports pages as the NFL season has been brought to a close with the Super Bowl and the new MLB season is weeks away.
That also signifies a turning point for teams in the NBA as they begin to put things together for the Play Offs which begin in a couple of months. The chemistry of teams are determined now as teams build to that moment, while the trade deadline also fast approaches.
I was just about to have this post published when I read the news that my New York Knicks have decided to fire Derek Fisher in the middle of his second season as Head Coach. It came out of left field after Fisher came through a difficult first season and the Knicks have been playing ahead of my own expectations and perhaps most fans' expectations.
That hasn't been the case for James Dolan and Phil Jackson when the statement was released that they are 'falling short of expectations', something I think is down to the fact that the Knicks have overachieved earlier on in the season. Now they are 1-9 in their last ten games and dropping out of the Eastern Conference picture, I think Fisher has been a victim of his own surprising success earlier in the season.
Do I think this is the right move? No, I actually think Fisher was doing well and this was going to be a big Free Agency summer for the team to get back into contention next season. I didn't expect the Knicks to make the Play Offs this time around, but I will say the early season form was exciting. However, that shouldn't have shifted expectations to the extreme of seeing Fisher fired.
Perhaps the Knicks have sensed that Luke Walton is interested in taking a permanent Head Coaching spot after performing very well for the Golden State Warriors in relief of Steve Kerr to open this season. It was Walton who was Coaching the team to their record winning run to open the season and I am guessing the Knicks make a run at him having missed out on Steve Kerr eighteen months ago.
Once again though, it is tough times being a New York Knicks fan with uncertainty surrounding the direction the franchise is taking.
It was a good opening week of February for the picks, although I was a little disappointed to go 1-3 over the last couple of days to take away some of the early success.
Orlando Magic fans must be hoping that I spend more time backing against their team too- here is a wonderful stat for you:
The Magic are 3-15 in their last eighteen games as they have fallen off the Eastern Conference Play Off hunt... However, I have backed against them twice during that run and the Magic have won two of their three games when I have done that!! Incredible...
Monday 8th February
The Sunday picks went 1-1 after the Orlando Magic knocked down a buzzer beater to knock off the Atlanta Hawks at home, but the Denver Nuggets won outright as the underdog in New York.
That ended the first week of February in a decent position and I will be looking to build on that in this short week which culminates in the All-Star Game on Valentines Day.
Next week is also a short week with the NBA out of action from Friday 12th February until Thursday 18th February, but I hope to build on last week to ensure another winning month is put in the books.
Denver Nuggets @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The Denver Nuggets held off the New York Knicks on Sunday to keep their chances of making the Play Offs alive in the Western Conference. They can't afford to drop a loss to one of the worst teams in the NBA when they visit the Brooklyn Nets on Monday, although this is a unique position for the Nuggets to be in.
For the first time this season, the Nuggets go into a game as the road favourite and I do wonder if that changes their mindset even a little. It has actually been a rare position for Denver over the last couple of seasons, although I am encouraged by their 10-6 record against the spread in that spot in that time frame.
Add in the fact that Denver are 5-0 against the spread as the road favourite of 3 points or fewer over the last couple of seasons and they are 7-4 against the spread in back to back games this season and I like them to cover in this game.
Brooklyn have struggled with seven losses in eight games and they have been having a hard time Defensively. Some of their bigger name players could potentially be moving on at the trade deadline but the Nets do have a solid 7-2 record against the spread in the last nine against Denver.
Even with that in mind, Denver have a strong road record against teams with losing records this season and I think they make it two out of two in the boroughs of Gotham on back to back nights.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: On Saturday the Portland Trail Blazers surprised me with a convincing win over the Houston Rockets on the road. The Trail Blazers proved they can be a Play Off contender by beating a team with a winning record which has been an issue for them this season, but now they have to do that again on the road at the Memphis Grizzlies.
For a team that is 30-21 on the season, the Memphis Grizzlies have been an inconsistent team as they have struggled with a new identity. The grinding style has been replaced with more pace, but that has also seen the Grizzlies begin to struggle on the Defensive side of the court.
This might be a small window for success for Memphis as Mike Conley looks certain to test Free Agency, but they have stuck together even if a five game winning run was ended with a defeat to the Dallas Mavericks. I think the Grizzlies are still a better team that the Trail Blazers who are just 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games here.
Memphis have a solid 9-6 record against the spread when favoured by 6 points or fewer at home and Marc Gasol is expected to play despite having a leg injury. Despite the win in Houston, Portland are just 3-7 against the spread on the road against a team with a winning record and I like the Grizzlies to cover this number.
Tuesday 9th February
That was a brutal day on Monday with a buzzer beater three pointer costing the chance for one pick to at least push, while the other was defeated in Overtime.
Not a good start to what is a short week, but looking for Tuesday to turn that back around with a little more luck at crunch time.
Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks Pick: The big news at the start of this week was the move the New York Knicks made in firing Derek Fisher as Head Coach. That was a surprise even though the Knicks had lost nine of their last ten games to fall out of the Eastern Conference Play Off picture and it has been tasked to Kurt Rambis to turn the season around.
This is the last game the Knicks play until after the All-Star Game and I do wonder how the players are feeling with Fisher out of the picture. There is no suggestion that Fisher had a falling out with his players, but he wasn't extracting the full potential from them according to Phil Jackson and James Dolan and so the move was made, although Rambis looks nothing more than an interim hire.
The Knicks are having big problems at both ends of the floor, but they are taking on a Washington Wizards team that has been underachieving all season. Many expected Washington to make a push in the Eastern Conference after a successful post-season last year, but the Wizards are struggling to even make the Number 8 Seed this time around.
Washington have lost six of their last eight games, but they have gone 5-0 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record on the road. They will be looking for revenge over the Knicks having seen their seven game winning run in the series ended earlier this season, although my one concern is that Washington have not performed as a small road underdog.
However, I do like the Wizards with the points in this one as I think they have enough Offense to see off New York in what is likely to be a game that goes down to the wire.
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The Boston Celtics might have wished the All-Star Game was already passed as they continue to be the hottest team in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have won nine of their last ten games to move into the Number 3 Seed in the Eastern Conference, and they have beaten the likes of Chicago at home and Cleveland on the road in that run.
Now they get a chance to face the inconsistent Milwaukee Bucks whose youth has seen them struggle to close out games. After reaching the Play Offs last season, missing out this time around will be a big blow for the development of this team.
Milwaukee have lost seven of their last eight games, including five in a row heading into this one, but some of those have been really close and highlights the inexperience in the rotation. The Bucks have also struggled against Boston in recent games in the series as they have gone 0-4 against the spread at home and 1-5 against the spread in the last six overall.
You can't ignore the fact that Boston haven't been a great road favourite to back, especially when when favoured by between 3.5 points and 6 points, and Milwaukee being a strong home underdog. Even with that in mind, Boston have played this head to head so well in recent games that I expect them to cover a rare big number on their travels in this one.
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: Two teams chasing Play Off spots in the Western Conference meet in this game as the Utah Jazz put their six game winning run on the line against the Dallas Mavericks. That is an impressive run from Utah, although only one of those games has been on the road and that against the awful Phoenix Suns.
This is a much different test for the Jazz who have lost their last ten visits to the Dallas Mavericks including back in November. Utah are still dealing with a few injuries which is shortening their rotations, while Dallas might be feeling a lot better after going through Overtime to snap their three game losing run last time out against the Memphis Grizzlies.
It is a game that Utah will feel they have every chance of winning if they maintain their recent Defensive performances. That is a possibility with Dallas sometimes getting bogged down Offensively having failed to surpass 91 points in their last four home games, but the Mavericks will feel their own Defensive schemes can help them through this game.
Being a small road underdog is not a position the Utah Jazz have enjoyed this season, going 1-4 against the spread in that spot, while Dallas have been a strong home favourite. I can't imagine this game is anything but another battle for these two teams, but I am looking for Dallas to extend their 6-1-1 record against the spread in their last eight games against Utah.
Wednesday 10th February
I wonder if my luck is going to be any worse than the last couple of days. After being burned by a Joe Johnson three pointer on Monday, the Dallas Mavericks blew a healthy nine point lead going into the fourth quarter by allowing a Rodney Hood three pointer to tie the game with one second left.
They are then beaten in Overtime by a buzzer beater from Gordon Hayward who had basically stunk all night, except he hit his final four shots from the field.
Add in the calamitous way Boston lost having tied the game with a second left on the clock and it has really felt like if not for bad luck I would have no luck at all.
It happens sometimes and I did have some real fortune last week, but it is a disappointment when the late shots seem to go down against you.
Charlotte Hornets @ Indiana Pacers Pick: When it comes down to separating those teams who make the Eastern Conference Play Offs and those who don't, the tie-breakers like this one could have a huge impact. The Eastern Conference looks to be far more loaded than it has for many years and it hasn't been often that a 0.500 team at this stage of the season would not be in the top eight places.
That is where the Charlotte Hornets find themselves, but they are only two games behind their hosts the Indiana Pacers thanks to a run of four wins from their last six games. Charlotte would love to get above 0.500 going into the All-Star break, but that certainly isn't going to be easy against this Pacers team who have come out of a stumble to win five of seven games.
One of the keys for the Hornets has been an improved play at the Defensive end of the court which has coincided with the return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ahead of schedule. With Al Jefferson soon to return too, Charlotte have to be feeling positive about their chances of making the post-season.
I have to have a lot of respect for the way Indiana have played as the home favourite this season, particularly when favoured by 6 points or fewer as they have gone 10-2 against the spread in those games. However, Charlotte have been a solid road underdog, have a 7-4 record against the spread in road games at teams with winning records and also are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six against Indiana.
If the Hornets can maintain the way they are performing Defensively, they have the talented Offensive playmakers to keep this within the number at the least.
Sacramento Kings @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: It looked like George Karl would be fired ahead of this game as Head Coach of the Sacramento Kings, but he is barely clinging onto his job. The disarray here has been nothing short of embarrassing for the Kings again and losing eight of their last nine games is going to take its toll on the players.
DeMarcus Cousins is the star, but he has yet to really get on the same page as Karl, while Rajon Rondo was critical of some of the other players for not coming to an optional shootaround. Add in other players being annoyed with the lack of Defensive schemes being put into games, resulting in the Kings giving up at least 120 points in three consecutive games, and it seems a matter of time before big changes are made in Sacramento.
To be fair to the Kings, most of their losses have come against the better teams, but a loss to the Brooklyn Nets when allowing a staggering 128 points stung last week. Now they get to face another poor team in the Philadelphia 76ers, but one that is working very hard to improve and whose own Head Coach is being praised for getting what he can out of a young core of players.
An overtime loss to the LA Clippers will have hurt Philadelphia on Monday, but it showed again they are willing to compete. The 76ers haven't been a great home underdog to back, but Sacramento are just 1-3 against the spread as the road favourite this season and their off court issues have transferred onto the court.
That makes them a difficult team to back with any confidence and I actually think the Kings are being asked to cover too many points. The players will want to get into the All-Star break and hope for changes at the Coaching level and I am not sure they will be fully focused on the 76ers. I'll take the points and look for another competitive showing from Philadelphia in this one.
Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: The Toronto Raptors have a chance to go into the All-Star Game with the most wins in franchise history at the 'half way' point of the season. That was a record they set last season and goes to show why so many are expecting this team to perhaps be the biggest threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference.
The Number 1 Seed is very much in their sights too as the Raptors try and win their fourth road game in a row. The win in Portland last week is looking more and more impressive as the Trail Blazers continue their own hot form and the Toronto Raptors are healthy favourites to win here in Minnesota.
That is because the Timberwolves are still one of the bigger disappointments on the season and saw their two game winning run snapped by an upset home loss to the New Orleans Pelicans. Minnesota continue to struggle Defensively and being a home underdog hasn't really helped them against the spread as they are 5-9 in that spot this season.
Now they have to face a steaming hot Toronto team who have a 9-1 record against the spread in their last ten visits here. The Timberwolves have also struggled off an upset at home, going 0-5 against the spread in that spot this season and Toronto are 9-3 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record on the road. I'll take the Raptors to cover the points in this one too.
Thursday 11th February
I would have been seriously irritated if Philadelphia had blown their big lead and failed to cover after seeing the Toronto Raptors throw away a double digit first half lead in their eventual loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Thankfully the 76ers held themselves together for just long enough to take another competitive loss while Charlotte blew out Indiana to produce a winning run for the day.
Today is the last day of the NBA until next Thursday as we reach the All-Star break and a chance for teams to finalise trade deadline plans and get set for the run to the Play Offs in the 'second half of the season'.
Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The Washington Wizards are trying to pick up their pace and begin to close on the Eastern Conference Play Off places. This was supposed to be a season when Washington took another step forward to become a real contender in the NBA, but it has been tough work for them all season with this being a vital game against the Milwaukee Bucks who are also trying to get closer to the top eight places in the Conference.
Both teams are coming off wins in different fashion as Washington took just their third win in their last nine games against the imploding New York Knicks. On the other side, Milwaukee held off a furious rally from the Boston Celtics, one of the hotter teams in the East, to snap a five game losing run.
This has been a good match up for Washington who have won seven of the last eight in the series and who have gone 5-2 against the spread in the last seven. The Wizards have played well on the road when facing a team with a losing record and improved to 6-0 against the spread in that spot this season.
It has also been a big test for the Milwaukee Bucks to back up close wins as they have gone 0-3 against the spread when winning their last home game by three points or fewer. They are not in the underdog spot this time in which they have thrived at home and the Bucks have to fear a Washington back court that is healthy and firing.
The layers are finding it hard to separate the teams, but I will take the point being given to the road underdog and look for Washington to win back to back games for the first time since the middle of January.
MY PICKS: 08/02 Denver Nuggets - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
08/02 Memphis Grizzlies - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
09/02 Washington Wizards + 2 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
09/02 Boston Celtics - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Betway (1 Unit)
09/02 Dallas Mavericks - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
10/02 Charlotte Hornets + 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
10/02 Philadelphia 76ers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
10/02 Toronto Raptors - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
11/02 Washington Wizards + 1 Point @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
December Final: 27-21-3, + 3.67 Units
November Final: 27-22-1, + 2.69 Units
October Final: 5-4, + 0.57 Units
Season 2016: 89-75-6, + 6.36 Units
That also signifies a turning point for teams in the NBA as they begin to put things together for the Play Offs which begin in a couple of months. The chemistry of teams are determined now as teams build to that moment, while the trade deadline also fast approaches.
I was just about to have this post published when I read the news that my New York Knicks have decided to fire Derek Fisher in the middle of his second season as Head Coach. It came out of left field after Fisher came through a difficult first season and the Knicks have been playing ahead of my own expectations and perhaps most fans' expectations.
That hasn't been the case for James Dolan and Phil Jackson when the statement was released that they are 'falling short of expectations', something I think is down to the fact that the Knicks have overachieved earlier on in the season. Now they are 1-9 in their last ten games and dropping out of the Eastern Conference picture, I think Fisher has been a victim of his own surprising success earlier in the season.
Do I think this is the right move? No, I actually think Fisher was doing well and this was going to be a big Free Agency summer for the team to get back into contention next season. I didn't expect the Knicks to make the Play Offs this time around, but I will say the early season form was exciting. However, that shouldn't have shifted expectations to the extreme of seeing Fisher fired.
Perhaps the Knicks have sensed that Luke Walton is interested in taking a permanent Head Coaching spot after performing very well for the Golden State Warriors in relief of Steve Kerr to open this season. It was Walton who was Coaching the team to their record winning run to open the season and I am guessing the Knicks make a run at him having missed out on Steve Kerr eighteen months ago.
Once again though, it is tough times being a New York Knicks fan with uncertainty surrounding the direction the franchise is taking.
It was a good opening week of February for the picks, although I was a little disappointed to go 1-3 over the last couple of days to take away some of the early success.
Orlando Magic fans must be hoping that I spend more time backing against their team too- here is a wonderful stat for you:
The Magic are 3-15 in their last eighteen games as they have fallen off the Eastern Conference Play Off hunt... However, I have backed against them twice during that run and the Magic have won two of their three games when I have done that!! Incredible...
Monday 8th February
The Sunday picks went 1-1 after the Orlando Magic knocked down a buzzer beater to knock off the Atlanta Hawks at home, but the Denver Nuggets won outright as the underdog in New York.
That ended the first week of February in a decent position and I will be looking to build on that in this short week which culminates in the All-Star Game on Valentines Day.
Next week is also a short week with the NBA out of action from Friday 12th February until Thursday 18th February, but I hope to build on last week to ensure another winning month is put in the books.
Denver Nuggets @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The Denver Nuggets held off the New York Knicks on Sunday to keep their chances of making the Play Offs alive in the Western Conference. They can't afford to drop a loss to one of the worst teams in the NBA when they visit the Brooklyn Nets on Monday, although this is a unique position for the Nuggets to be in.
For the first time this season, the Nuggets go into a game as the road favourite and I do wonder if that changes their mindset even a little. It has actually been a rare position for Denver over the last couple of seasons, although I am encouraged by their 10-6 record against the spread in that spot in that time frame.
Add in the fact that Denver are 5-0 against the spread as the road favourite of 3 points or fewer over the last couple of seasons and they are 7-4 against the spread in back to back games this season and I like them to cover in this game.
Brooklyn have struggled with seven losses in eight games and they have been having a hard time Defensively. Some of their bigger name players could potentially be moving on at the trade deadline but the Nets do have a solid 7-2 record against the spread in the last nine against Denver.
Even with that in mind, Denver have a strong road record against teams with losing records this season and I think they make it two out of two in the boroughs of Gotham on back to back nights.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: On Saturday the Portland Trail Blazers surprised me with a convincing win over the Houston Rockets on the road. The Trail Blazers proved they can be a Play Off contender by beating a team with a winning record which has been an issue for them this season, but now they have to do that again on the road at the Memphis Grizzlies.
For a team that is 30-21 on the season, the Memphis Grizzlies have been an inconsistent team as they have struggled with a new identity. The grinding style has been replaced with more pace, but that has also seen the Grizzlies begin to struggle on the Defensive side of the court.
This might be a small window for success for Memphis as Mike Conley looks certain to test Free Agency, but they have stuck together even if a five game winning run was ended with a defeat to the Dallas Mavericks. I think the Grizzlies are still a better team that the Trail Blazers who are just 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games here.
Memphis have a solid 9-6 record against the spread when favoured by 6 points or fewer at home and Marc Gasol is expected to play despite having a leg injury. Despite the win in Houston, Portland are just 3-7 against the spread on the road against a team with a winning record and I like the Grizzlies to cover this number.
Tuesday 9th February
That was a brutal day on Monday with a buzzer beater three pointer costing the chance for one pick to at least push, while the other was defeated in Overtime.
Not a good start to what is a short week, but looking for Tuesday to turn that back around with a little more luck at crunch time.
Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks Pick: The big news at the start of this week was the move the New York Knicks made in firing Derek Fisher as Head Coach. That was a surprise even though the Knicks had lost nine of their last ten games to fall out of the Eastern Conference Play Off picture and it has been tasked to Kurt Rambis to turn the season around.
This is the last game the Knicks play until after the All-Star Game and I do wonder how the players are feeling with Fisher out of the picture. There is no suggestion that Fisher had a falling out with his players, but he wasn't extracting the full potential from them according to Phil Jackson and James Dolan and so the move was made, although Rambis looks nothing more than an interim hire.
The Knicks are having big problems at both ends of the floor, but they are taking on a Washington Wizards team that has been underachieving all season. Many expected Washington to make a push in the Eastern Conference after a successful post-season last year, but the Wizards are struggling to even make the Number 8 Seed this time around.
Washington have lost six of their last eight games, but they have gone 5-0 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record on the road. They will be looking for revenge over the Knicks having seen their seven game winning run in the series ended earlier this season, although my one concern is that Washington have not performed as a small road underdog.
However, I do like the Wizards with the points in this one as I think they have enough Offense to see off New York in what is likely to be a game that goes down to the wire.
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The Boston Celtics might have wished the All-Star Game was already passed as they continue to be the hottest team in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have won nine of their last ten games to move into the Number 3 Seed in the Eastern Conference, and they have beaten the likes of Chicago at home and Cleveland on the road in that run.
Now they get a chance to face the inconsistent Milwaukee Bucks whose youth has seen them struggle to close out games. After reaching the Play Offs last season, missing out this time around will be a big blow for the development of this team.
Milwaukee have lost seven of their last eight games, including five in a row heading into this one, but some of those have been really close and highlights the inexperience in the rotation. The Bucks have also struggled against Boston in recent games in the series as they have gone 0-4 against the spread at home and 1-5 against the spread in the last six overall.
You can't ignore the fact that Boston haven't been a great road favourite to back, especially when when favoured by between 3.5 points and 6 points, and Milwaukee being a strong home underdog. Even with that in mind, Boston have played this head to head so well in recent games that I expect them to cover a rare big number on their travels in this one.
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: Two teams chasing Play Off spots in the Western Conference meet in this game as the Utah Jazz put their six game winning run on the line against the Dallas Mavericks. That is an impressive run from Utah, although only one of those games has been on the road and that against the awful Phoenix Suns.
This is a much different test for the Jazz who have lost their last ten visits to the Dallas Mavericks including back in November. Utah are still dealing with a few injuries which is shortening their rotations, while Dallas might be feeling a lot better after going through Overtime to snap their three game losing run last time out against the Memphis Grizzlies.
It is a game that Utah will feel they have every chance of winning if they maintain their recent Defensive performances. That is a possibility with Dallas sometimes getting bogged down Offensively having failed to surpass 91 points in their last four home games, but the Mavericks will feel their own Defensive schemes can help them through this game.
Being a small road underdog is not a position the Utah Jazz have enjoyed this season, going 1-4 against the spread in that spot, while Dallas have been a strong home favourite. I can't imagine this game is anything but another battle for these two teams, but I am looking for Dallas to extend their 6-1-1 record against the spread in their last eight games against Utah.
Wednesday 10th February
I wonder if my luck is going to be any worse than the last couple of days. After being burned by a Joe Johnson three pointer on Monday, the Dallas Mavericks blew a healthy nine point lead going into the fourth quarter by allowing a Rodney Hood three pointer to tie the game with one second left.
They are then beaten in Overtime by a buzzer beater from Gordon Hayward who had basically stunk all night, except he hit his final four shots from the field.
Add in the calamitous way Boston lost having tied the game with a second left on the clock and it has really felt like if not for bad luck I would have no luck at all.
It happens sometimes and I did have some real fortune last week, but it is a disappointment when the late shots seem to go down against you.
Charlotte Hornets @ Indiana Pacers Pick: When it comes down to separating those teams who make the Eastern Conference Play Offs and those who don't, the tie-breakers like this one could have a huge impact. The Eastern Conference looks to be far more loaded than it has for many years and it hasn't been often that a 0.500 team at this stage of the season would not be in the top eight places.
That is where the Charlotte Hornets find themselves, but they are only two games behind their hosts the Indiana Pacers thanks to a run of four wins from their last six games. Charlotte would love to get above 0.500 going into the All-Star break, but that certainly isn't going to be easy against this Pacers team who have come out of a stumble to win five of seven games.
One of the keys for the Hornets has been an improved play at the Defensive end of the court which has coincided with the return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ahead of schedule. With Al Jefferson soon to return too, Charlotte have to be feeling positive about their chances of making the post-season.
I have to have a lot of respect for the way Indiana have played as the home favourite this season, particularly when favoured by 6 points or fewer as they have gone 10-2 against the spread in those games. However, Charlotte have been a solid road underdog, have a 7-4 record against the spread in road games at teams with winning records and also are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six against Indiana.
If the Hornets can maintain the way they are performing Defensively, they have the talented Offensive playmakers to keep this within the number at the least.
Sacramento Kings @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: It looked like George Karl would be fired ahead of this game as Head Coach of the Sacramento Kings, but he is barely clinging onto his job. The disarray here has been nothing short of embarrassing for the Kings again and losing eight of their last nine games is going to take its toll on the players.
DeMarcus Cousins is the star, but he has yet to really get on the same page as Karl, while Rajon Rondo was critical of some of the other players for not coming to an optional shootaround. Add in other players being annoyed with the lack of Defensive schemes being put into games, resulting in the Kings giving up at least 120 points in three consecutive games, and it seems a matter of time before big changes are made in Sacramento.
To be fair to the Kings, most of their losses have come against the better teams, but a loss to the Brooklyn Nets when allowing a staggering 128 points stung last week. Now they get to face another poor team in the Philadelphia 76ers, but one that is working very hard to improve and whose own Head Coach is being praised for getting what he can out of a young core of players.
An overtime loss to the LA Clippers will have hurt Philadelphia on Monday, but it showed again they are willing to compete. The 76ers haven't been a great home underdog to back, but Sacramento are just 1-3 against the spread as the road favourite this season and their off court issues have transferred onto the court.
That makes them a difficult team to back with any confidence and I actually think the Kings are being asked to cover too many points. The players will want to get into the All-Star break and hope for changes at the Coaching level and I am not sure they will be fully focused on the 76ers. I'll take the points and look for another competitive showing from Philadelphia in this one.
Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: The Toronto Raptors have a chance to go into the All-Star Game with the most wins in franchise history at the 'half way' point of the season. That was a record they set last season and goes to show why so many are expecting this team to perhaps be the biggest threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference.
The Number 1 Seed is very much in their sights too as the Raptors try and win their fourth road game in a row. The win in Portland last week is looking more and more impressive as the Trail Blazers continue their own hot form and the Toronto Raptors are healthy favourites to win here in Minnesota.
That is because the Timberwolves are still one of the bigger disappointments on the season and saw their two game winning run snapped by an upset home loss to the New Orleans Pelicans. Minnesota continue to struggle Defensively and being a home underdog hasn't really helped them against the spread as they are 5-9 in that spot this season.
Now they have to face a steaming hot Toronto team who have a 9-1 record against the spread in their last ten visits here. The Timberwolves have also struggled off an upset at home, going 0-5 against the spread in that spot this season and Toronto are 9-3 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record on the road. I'll take the Raptors to cover the points in this one too.
Thursday 11th February
I would have been seriously irritated if Philadelphia had blown their big lead and failed to cover after seeing the Toronto Raptors throw away a double digit first half lead in their eventual loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Thankfully the 76ers held themselves together for just long enough to take another competitive loss while Charlotte blew out Indiana to produce a winning run for the day.
Today is the last day of the NBA until next Thursday as we reach the All-Star break and a chance for teams to finalise trade deadline plans and get set for the run to the Play Offs in the 'second half of the season'.
Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The Washington Wizards are trying to pick up their pace and begin to close on the Eastern Conference Play Off places. This was supposed to be a season when Washington took another step forward to become a real contender in the NBA, but it has been tough work for them all season with this being a vital game against the Milwaukee Bucks who are also trying to get closer to the top eight places in the Conference.
Both teams are coming off wins in different fashion as Washington took just their third win in their last nine games against the imploding New York Knicks. On the other side, Milwaukee held off a furious rally from the Boston Celtics, one of the hotter teams in the East, to snap a five game losing run.
This has been a good match up for Washington who have won seven of the last eight in the series and who have gone 5-2 against the spread in the last seven. The Wizards have played well on the road when facing a team with a losing record and improved to 6-0 against the spread in that spot this season.
It has also been a big test for the Milwaukee Bucks to back up close wins as they have gone 0-3 against the spread when winning their last home game by three points or fewer. They are not in the underdog spot this time in which they have thrived at home and the Bucks have to fear a Washington back court that is healthy and firing.
The layers are finding it hard to separate the teams, but I will take the point being given to the road underdog and look for Washington to win back to back games for the first time since the middle of January.
MY PICKS: 08/02 Denver Nuggets - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
08/02 Memphis Grizzlies - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
09/02 Washington Wizards + 2 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
09/02 Boston Celtics - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Betway (1 Unit)
09/02 Dallas Mavericks - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
10/02 Charlotte Hornets + 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
10/02 Philadelphia 76ers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
10/02 Toronto Raptors - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
11/02 Washington Wizards + 1 Point @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
February 8-12 Update: 3-6, - 3.27 Units
February 1-7 Final: 9-5, + 3.23 Units
February Update: 9-5, + 3.23 Units
January Final: 21-23-2, - 3.80 UnitsDecember Final: 27-21-3, + 3.67 Units
November Final: 27-22-1, + 2.69 Units
October Final: 5-4, + 0.57 Units
Season 2016: 89-75-6, + 6.36 Units
Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units
Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
Monday, 1 February 2016
NBA Picks February 2016 (February 1-7)
Has it really been a month since the New Year? Time seems to be rushing along at this moment with a big 2016 year for myself and my family and sometimes it would be nice to have a little pause button to appreciate things that have been happening.
This month we will see the All-Star Game in the NBA which is usually considered the 'turning point' of a season as the top teams begin to focus on the Play Offs which will begin a couple of months after that game.
It is the time when these top teams want the chemistry to be proven and show they are ready to make a push for the NBA Championship, while the trade deadline also fast approaches.
January proved to be a tough month for the picks thanks to a really poor week in the middle of the month. It is the first losing month of the season for the picks, but fortunately a decent last couple of weeks ensured those losses were kept lower than the season totals to ensure we are still in profit heading into February.
The last couple of months have actually started off much slower than I would like so I am looking for a better start to February which should put the picks in a position to build in the right direction.
Monday 1st February
The last day of January proved to be a disappointment with both picks coming out on the wrong end.
That finished that month with a losing record, but the season is still in a good position and hopefully the February picks will be much stronger than January.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Pick: I wasn't sure the Cleveland Cavaliers had proved anything under Tyronn Lue with their wins following their defeat to the Chicago Bulls, but they certainly looked very strong in beating the San Antonio Spurs.
The change in tempo has worked for Kevin Love who has looked as good as at any time since joining Cleveland and pushing the pace has seen the Cavaliers explode for at least 114 points in four straight games. To do that against teams like Minnesota and Phoenix is one thing, but reaching that milestone against one of the best Defensive teams in the NBA in San Antonio is something to be admired.
They are now facing an Indiana team that had lost six of seven games, but will come into this one off back to back wins. The Pacers have given Cleveland plenty to think about in recent games and own a 4-0 record against the spread in the last four games between them, but this Cavaliers team are in really good form at the moment.
Cleveland are not a great road favourite to back, but have been stronger when set as the road favourite of six points or fewer. I will back the Cavaliers to cover this game on Monday and continue their strong run of form.
Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Both the Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks were playing on Sunday night but they had contrasting results as Atlanta were blown out and Dallas won easily. They have also had contrasting results on the back to back with Dallas having a winning record against the spread and Atlanta having a losing one this season.
The Mavericks have been in stronger recent form with three wins in their last four games compared with Atlanta who have lost five of their last six. This has been a tough moment in the season for them as the players have admitted and the Hawks have been having a hard time at both ends of the court.
Dallas rested Dirk Nowitzki to ensure he was ready to play in this game and they are 5-3 against the spread when trying to revenge a home loss this season. On current performances on the court, Dallas have every chance of making this really competitive even if they fail to win outright and I do think they are being given too many points.
I do have to say that Dallas haven't been the best road underdog to back this season, but they look a team much more in tune with what they want to do on the court than Atlanta. Recent Hawks games have seen the team struggling for points and Dallas are very effective Defensively which makes this a lot of points being asked to cover for the home team.
Tuesday 2nd February
It looked like being a frustrating day for the picks to open the month as the Cleveland Cavaliers blew a double digit half time lead as the Offense went stone cold in the second half. Fortunately they managed to pull the game into Overtime before winning by five points which meant taking the early line was a positive.
Unfortunately Dallas never really got into the game with Atlanta to earn a split of the day.
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks Pick: The Boston Celtics reached triple digits for the twelve game in a row, but their five game winning run came to an end thanks to some awful Defensive work in the second half. The loss to the Orlando Magic was a disappointment, but the Celtics should be ready to face their rivals the New York Knicks on Tuesday.
Boston have been on a decent run since their loss at Madison Square Garden last month and they now face a New York Knicks team who have lost five of their last six games. The Knicks have surpassed expectations this season but look to have hit a wall with the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis both a little banged up.
They will need both to be ready to compete against a Boston team that is finding points from a number of different avenues, although they did fall in love with the three pointer in their last game. However the Offensive output is hard to ignore and Boston reaching triple digits in this one will make it tough for New York to compete unless they perform as badly Defensively as they did against Orlando.
The Celtics have been strong at revenging a same season loss to an opponent and also bouncing back from an upset defeat. While they are not a great road favourite to back, New York are just 7-11 against the spread as the home underdog of three points or fewer over the last couple of seasons and I like the road team to get back to winning ways.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: The Milwaukee Bucks are having a hard time of late with five losses from their last six games and losing their last four on the road. The Eastern Conference Play Offs are beginning to get away from Milwaukee who play the second of a three game road trip against Western Conference teams and they will be desperate to reverse recent form.
That is going to be tough against the Portland Trail Blazers who have won four in a row as they continue to surpass the expectations most had for them. They are once again in contention for a Play Off place in the Western Conference and Portland will be looking to complete this current seven game home stand with another couple of wins.
Portland have certainly picked up their play Defensively and they are catching Milwaukee on a back to back, although the Bucks have been strong in this position against the spread this season. However Milwaukee are struggling Defensively which is a concern against a team like Portland and that might be the difference in this game.
The Bucks have struggled to a 3-6 record against the spread when set as the road underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points this season and Portland have been a decent home favourite to back. The Trail Blazers did let me down in their last home game as the favourite, but I think they can be backed again as they continue to ride strong play at both ends of the court at the Rose Garden.
Wednesday 3rd February
Both of the picks on Tuesday returned as winners after some tough moments, but Wednesday looks a much tougher day to find games of interest.
In fact I have only found the one pick from the host of games to be played on Wednesday.
Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: The Atlanta Hawks blew out the Dallas Mavericks and they have been such a streaky team this season that perhaps that is the start of a positive run. Facing the Philadelphia 76ers who they have blown out twice already this season gives Atlanta a chance to make it two in a row and I like them to cover what looks a big number.
However it hasn't been big enough for the 76ers so far this season as they are just 2-9 against the spread when given between 6.5 and 12 points as the home underdog. I have to respect the fact that Philadelphia have gone 3-4 straight up in their last seven games, something that has to be considered a success relative to their season performances.
They also battled back from a huge deficit to fall just short against the Golden State Warriors here over the weekend, but getting that effort in back to back games is difficult for them. Only two of their last eight games have ended in a double digit loss too, but Philadelphia might find it hard to pick themselves up from an emotional effort that came close to the upset of the season.
Atlanta are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games in Philadelphia and I will back them to cover this one.
Thursday 4th February
It was a very easy win for the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday to improve the week's totals to open February as I was looking for. The last two months have started slowly so a faster start is what I wanted and have so far achieved.
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons Pick: The Detroit Pistons haven't played that well on the back to back spots this season and they are going to missing a key player in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. However, I think the Pistons can still get a measure of revenge over the New York Knicks for a loss to them earlier this season, especially as Detroit are 6-1 against the spread in the same season revenge spot.
They did suffer a close loss to the Boston Celtics on Wednesday which may have an affect on this game, although that looked a lot closer after a strong run in the fourth quarter for Detroit. The starters didn't have to play for long periods which should mean they are rested for this home game although the back to back spot hasn't been easy for them.
On the other hand, the New York Knicks are really struggling to find Offensive consistency with Carmelo Anthony still feeling a little banged up. They challenged Boston for a while in their last game, but New York have failed to surpass 95 points in five of their last seven games.
The Knicks have been a solid road underdog this season against the spread, but they are just 4-4 against the spread when given six points or fewer. They face a Detroit team that is 7-3 against the spread as the home favourite of six points or fewer and I will back the home team to cover as they get enough points to make up for Caldwell-Pope's absence.
Toronto Raptors @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: This has been a game that the Toronto Raptors have struggled with in recent seasons, but they are in the kind of form that can see them snap their four game losing run against the Portland Trail Blazers.
There is little doubt this will be a close game with the way the Portland Trail Blazers have been playing during their home stand. Portland have won five in a row at home and will play their final of seven games at the Moda Center before heading on the road, but it has to be noted that all of their wins at home have come against teams with losing records.
In fact Portland are just 6-8 against the spread when hosting the better teams in the NBA and face a Toronto team who have gone 8-3 against the spread on the road against teams with losing records. They were winning again in Phoenix after a slow start following the end of the Raptors franchise record of wins in a row, and I do think the Raptors are the superior team in this one.
You can't ignore the fact that Toronto are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games in Portland, but they were seven points clear going into the fourth quarter here last season and then were beaten in Overtime. They have been getting closer and I think the wrong team is being favoured in this one so I will take the point being given to the road team.
Friday 5th February
It was almost the most stunning of collapses from the Detroit Pistons who had led the New York Knicks by 27 points in the first half and by 24 points at half time. That lead was pegged all the way back to the Knicks actually leading with two minutes to go, but Detroit managed to pull the iron out of the fire and New York were not able to recover what would have been the biggest deficit in franchise history that resulted in a win.
There is no doubting that it would have been the worst bit of luck if Detroit hadn't covered, but it was a mental mistake from the Knicks that allowed that to happen in the end with a foul given away with three seconds left on the clock.
Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: The Miami Heat have been playing very well as their squad has improved in health but they have to face a Charlotte Hornets team who impressively saw off the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last game.
The Heat won't be disappointed if Kemba Walker has to sit for the Hornets for a second game in a row though as they have dealt with being short-handed for long stretches of the season. Walker is questionable for this game but Charlotte didn't miss him when beating the best team in the Eastern Conference in their last game.
A chance to move back to 0.500 is important for Charlotte, but Miami will also be looking to make sure their Play Off push continues going in the right direction. The Heat have won five of their last six games which has ensured they have maintained their winning record and I think they are playing well enough to beat Charlotte here.
The home team might have won the last six in the series between these teams, but I do think the Heat are perhaps being underestimated as the underdog. It isn't like they are massive dogs, but Miami are the better team especially if Walker sits out again along with Al Jefferson and I like the Heat to cover.
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers have admitted their second half performances in the last two games have left a lot to be desired. Against both Indiana and Charlotte, Cleveland had a big first half lead built up but a poor third quarter allowed their opponents to get back into things.
The Pacers failed to get the win, losing in Overtime, but Charlotte did beat Cleveland who are still a work in progress under Tyronn Lue. Now they return home to face the Boston Celtics with some bad blood still lingering from the way their First Round Play Off series developed last season.
That alone should focus Cleveland as well as the fact that Boston have won seven of their last eight games. The Celtics have thrived in the role of road underdog too so they have to be respected, but Cleveland do match up well with them and a more complete performance has to be coming after the last two on the road.
No one can doubt that Cleveland are much stronger at home and they have been scoring plenty of points. I think this will be a high-scoring game as both teams have shown some Offensive power of late, but I think the Cavaliers will cover as they would have done with this number in three of their last four home games against Boston.
Memphis Grizzlies @ New York Knicks Pick: There are two ways the New York Knicks can go on Friday night- either they ride the momentum of their second half performance against Detroit into this game or fatigue plays a huge part in their sixth consecutive loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Knicks recovered from that big deficit against the Detroit Pistons in a monumental second half effort, but I do wonder if they can emotionally pick themselves up having still lost the game. Coming back from 27 points down to lead with minutes remaining and losing has to have a mental impact on a team that has lost seven of their last eight games.
The starters all had to play in the comeback so this back to back is a tough spot for New York, especially when you think how well Memphis have matched up with them. The Grizzlies have won eight of their last nine including four in a row which makes them a very confident team while they are 6-2 against the spread against the New York Knicks.
New York have struggled as the home underdog of six points or fewer, going 11-23 against the spread in the last couple of years, and that game last night has to have taken something from them. I know Memphis are not a great road favourite to back as they are 1-4 against the spread in that spot, but they are rested, match up with New York and should have too much for the Knicks at Madison Square Garden in this one.
Saturday 6th February
The Cleveland Cavaliers had their third straight terrible second half performance which has led to a second loss in a row. Thankfully the rest of the Friday picks landed as expected and that has kept the week in a very positive position with two days left to go.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Portland Trail Blazers might have picked up some valuable wins in recent games, but they won't be able to get too far if they can't start beating the better teams in the NBA. A loaded Western Conference is unlikely to see Portland challenge for supremacy beyond the First Round of the Play Offs, but getting to the post-season is a genuine aim for the team.
The Trail Blazers just completed a seven game home stand, but that run was bookmarked by a pair of losses to teams with winning records. They now travel on the road to take on the Houston Rockets who have been improved but still struggling for the consistency they would have expected at the start of the season.
Houston haven't really been the team you want to back as the home favourite this season, but Portland are 3-7 against the spread when playing on the road against a team with a winning record. While the Trail Blazers have a strong record in Houston, I do think the spot is a difficult one considering they are off a long home stand.
I think the home team are healthy and Houston have been scoring plenty of points in recent games. With Portland not quite as effective on the road, I think the Rockets can find a way to get this done while covering the number.
LA Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The San Antonio Spurs have been looking for a big road win against a top team in the NBA and their blow out of the Dallas Mavericks on Friday certainly impressed. However, the defeats at the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers over the last couple of weeks have been a big disappointment for a team that has handled most of the challenges they have faced this season.
Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili won't be available for this game as the LA Lakers come to town along with retiring Kobe Bryant. Back to back wins have been rare for the Lakers all season, but they will come in looking for a third straight win, although it will take something very special to achieve that.
No one can deny how dominant the San Antonio Spurs have been at home this season and they have a very impressive 12-4 record against the spread when hosting a team with a losing record. The back to back shouldn't be a concern when you see San Antonio are 7-1 against the spread in that spot this season, while they blew out Dallas so well that they have rested their starters.
The Spurs have covered in three of their last four home games against the LA Lakers and I will back them to get over this very big number.
Sunday 7th February
Both of the picks on Saturday were very poor and showed little sign of actually being the right sides which was a disappointment.
The Sunday games are both scheduled for the early afternoon to ensure they are completed before the Super Bowl begins and I do have a couple of picks from the games to be played.
Denver Nuggets @ New York Knicks Pick: It has been a tough stretch for the New York Knicks and the chances that Carmelo Anthony suits up for this game are slim. Anthony is a huge piece of the New York Knicks future so they may opt to rest him through the All-Star break and hope he can be healthy down the stretch.
There have been plenty of positives in New York this season as the team has surpassed most expectations, but missing out on the Play Offs would still be a blow at this stage. The Knicks have lost eight of their last nine games and have lost four in a row which will have sapped some confidence, even though they have been competitive for the most part.
I don't doubt they are the favourites because the Denver Nuggets are not so strong on the road. However, the Nuggets have been playing well recently and look a team that could potentially get into the Western Conference Play Off picture in the next two months.
Denver have also thrived in their role as the road underdog this season, while they are also 8-4 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record on the road. It isn't a lot of points the Nuggets are getting, but I think this Denver sports team can cover on Sunday 7th February.
Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic Pick: The Atlanta Hawks finished with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference last season, but they have been far more inconsistent this time around. A streaky team, Atlanta have won three in a row and I think they will be too good for the Orlando Magic who have struggled over the last month.
This has been a game the Atlanta Hawks have enjoyed having won six of the last seven against Orlando, while they are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen games in Orlando.
Orlando have just been struggling at both ends of the court and they have allowed at least 100 points in seven straight games. The Magic have also lost eleven of their last twelve games and fifteen of their last seventeen as they have dropped off the pace when it comes to Play Off places in the Eastern Conference.
One thing that concerns me is Orlando have been 3-1 against the spread as the home underdog of three points or fewer this season, but I like the Atlanta Hawks to get the better of them in the first of a home and home series against them.
MY PICKS: 01/02 Cleveland Cavaliers - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
01/02 Dallas Mavericks + 6 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
02/02 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
02/02 Portland Trail Blazers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
03/02 Atlanta Hawks - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
04/02 Detroit Pistons - 5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
04/02 Toronto Raptors + 1 Point @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
05/02 Miami Heat + 1 Point @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
05/02 Cleveland Cavaliers - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
05/02 Memphis Grizzlies - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
06/02 Houston Rockets - 5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
06/02 San Antonio Spurs - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
07/02 Denver Nuggets + 2 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
07/02 Atlanta Hawks - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
February 1-7 Update: 9-5, + 3.23 Units
January Final: 21-23-2, - 3.80 Units
December Final: 27-21-3, + 3.67 Units
November Final: 27-22-1, + 2.69 Units
October Final: 5-4, + 0.57 Units
Season 2016: 80-70-6, + 3.13 Units
This month we will see the All-Star Game in the NBA which is usually considered the 'turning point' of a season as the top teams begin to focus on the Play Offs which will begin a couple of months after that game.
It is the time when these top teams want the chemistry to be proven and show they are ready to make a push for the NBA Championship, while the trade deadline also fast approaches.
January proved to be a tough month for the picks thanks to a really poor week in the middle of the month. It is the first losing month of the season for the picks, but fortunately a decent last couple of weeks ensured those losses were kept lower than the season totals to ensure we are still in profit heading into February.
The last couple of months have actually started off much slower than I would like so I am looking for a better start to February which should put the picks in a position to build in the right direction.
Monday 1st February
The last day of January proved to be a disappointment with both picks coming out on the wrong end.
That finished that month with a losing record, but the season is still in a good position and hopefully the February picks will be much stronger than January.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Pick: I wasn't sure the Cleveland Cavaliers had proved anything under Tyronn Lue with their wins following their defeat to the Chicago Bulls, but they certainly looked very strong in beating the San Antonio Spurs.
The change in tempo has worked for Kevin Love who has looked as good as at any time since joining Cleveland and pushing the pace has seen the Cavaliers explode for at least 114 points in four straight games. To do that against teams like Minnesota and Phoenix is one thing, but reaching that milestone against one of the best Defensive teams in the NBA in San Antonio is something to be admired.
They are now facing an Indiana team that had lost six of seven games, but will come into this one off back to back wins. The Pacers have given Cleveland plenty to think about in recent games and own a 4-0 record against the spread in the last four games between them, but this Cavaliers team are in really good form at the moment.
Cleveland are not a great road favourite to back, but have been stronger when set as the road favourite of six points or fewer. I will back the Cavaliers to cover this game on Monday and continue their strong run of form.
Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Both the Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks were playing on Sunday night but they had contrasting results as Atlanta were blown out and Dallas won easily. They have also had contrasting results on the back to back with Dallas having a winning record against the spread and Atlanta having a losing one this season.
The Mavericks have been in stronger recent form with three wins in their last four games compared with Atlanta who have lost five of their last six. This has been a tough moment in the season for them as the players have admitted and the Hawks have been having a hard time at both ends of the court.
Dallas rested Dirk Nowitzki to ensure he was ready to play in this game and they are 5-3 against the spread when trying to revenge a home loss this season. On current performances on the court, Dallas have every chance of making this really competitive even if they fail to win outright and I do think they are being given too many points.
I do have to say that Dallas haven't been the best road underdog to back this season, but they look a team much more in tune with what they want to do on the court than Atlanta. Recent Hawks games have seen the team struggling for points and Dallas are very effective Defensively which makes this a lot of points being asked to cover for the home team.
Tuesday 2nd February
It looked like being a frustrating day for the picks to open the month as the Cleveland Cavaliers blew a double digit half time lead as the Offense went stone cold in the second half. Fortunately they managed to pull the game into Overtime before winning by five points which meant taking the early line was a positive.
Unfortunately Dallas never really got into the game with Atlanta to earn a split of the day.
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks Pick: The Boston Celtics reached triple digits for the twelve game in a row, but their five game winning run came to an end thanks to some awful Defensive work in the second half. The loss to the Orlando Magic was a disappointment, but the Celtics should be ready to face their rivals the New York Knicks on Tuesday.
Boston have been on a decent run since their loss at Madison Square Garden last month and they now face a New York Knicks team who have lost five of their last six games. The Knicks have surpassed expectations this season but look to have hit a wall with the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis both a little banged up.
They will need both to be ready to compete against a Boston team that is finding points from a number of different avenues, although they did fall in love with the three pointer in their last game. However the Offensive output is hard to ignore and Boston reaching triple digits in this one will make it tough for New York to compete unless they perform as badly Defensively as they did against Orlando.
The Celtics have been strong at revenging a same season loss to an opponent and also bouncing back from an upset defeat. While they are not a great road favourite to back, New York are just 7-11 against the spread as the home underdog of three points or fewer over the last couple of seasons and I like the road team to get back to winning ways.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: The Milwaukee Bucks are having a hard time of late with five losses from their last six games and losing their last four on the road. The Eastern Conference Play Offs are beginning to get away from Milwaukee who play the second of a three game road trip against Western Conference teams and they will be desperate to reverse recent form.
That is going to be tough against the Portland Trail Blazers who have won four in a row as they continue to surpass the expectations most had for them. They are once again in contention for a Play Off place in the Western Conference and Portland will be looking to complete this current seven game home stand with another couple of wins.
Portland have certainly picked up their play Defensively and they are catching Milwaukee on a back to back, although the Bucks have been strong in this position against the spread this season. However Milwaukee are struggling Defensively which is a concern against a team like Portland and that might be the difference in this game.
The Bucks have struggled to a 3-6 record against the spread when set as the road underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points this season and Portland have been a decent home favourite to back. The Trail Blazers did let me down in their last home game as the favourite, but I think they can be backed again as they continue to ride strong play at both ends of the court at the Rose Garden.
Wednesday 3rd February
Both of the picks on Tuesday returned as winners after some tough moments, but Wednesday looks a much tougher day to find games of interest.
In fact I have only found the one pick from the host of games to be played on Wednesday.
Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: The Atlanta Hawks blew out the Dallas Mavericks and they have been such a streaky team this season that perhaps that is the start of a positive run. Facing the Philadelphia 76ers who they have blown out twice already this season gives Atlanta a chance to make it two in a row and I like them to cover what looks a big number.
However it hasn't been big enough for the 76ers so far this season as they are just 2-9 against the spread when given between 6.5 and 12 points as the home underdog. I have to respect the fact that Philadelphia have gone 3-4 straight up in their last seven games, something that has to be considered a success relative to their season performances.
They also battled back from a huge deficit to fall just short against the Golden State Warriors here over the weekend, but getting that effort in back to back games is difficult for them. Only two of their last eight games have ended in a double digit loss too, but Philadelphia might find it hard to pick themselves up from an emotional effort that came close to the upset of the season.
Atlanta are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games in Philadelphia and I will back them to cover this one.
Thursday 4th February
It was a very easy win for the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday to improve the week's totals to open February as I was looking for. The last two months have started slowly so a faster start is what I wanted and have so far achieved.
New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons Pick: The Detroit Pistons haven't played that well on the back to back spots this season and they are going to missing a key player in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. However, I think the Pistons can still get a measure of revenge over the New York Knicks for a loss to them earlier this season, especially as Detroit are 6-1 against the spread in the same season revenge spot.
They did suffer a close loss to the Boston Celtics on Wednesday which may have an affect on this game, although that looked a lot closer after a strong run in the fourth quarter for Detroit. The starters didn't have to play for long periods which should mean they are rested for this home game although the back to back spot hasn't been easy for them.
On the other hand, the New York Knicks are really struggling to find Offensive consistency with Carmelo Anthony still feeling a little banged up. They challenged Boston for a while in their last game, but New York have failed to surpass 95 points in five of their last seven games.
The Knicks have been a solid road underdog this season against the spread, but they are just 4-4 against the spread when given six points or fewer. They face a Detroit team that is 7-3 against the spread as the home favourite of six points or fewer and I will back the home team to cover as they get enough points to make up for Caldwell-Pope's absence.
Toronto Raptors @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: This has been a game that the Toronto Raptors have struggled with in recent seasons, but they are in the kind of form that can see them snap their four game losing run against the Portland Trail Blazers.
There is little doubt this will be a close game with the way the Portland Trail Blazers have been playing during their home stand. Portland have won five in a row at home and will play their final of seven games at the Moda Center before heading on the road, but it has to be noted that all of their wins at home have come against teams with losing records.
In fact Portland are just 6-8 against the spread when hosting the better teams in the NBA and face a Toronto team who have gone 8-3 against the spread on the road against teams with losing records. They were winning again in Phoenix after a slow start following the end of the Raptors franchise record of wins in a row, and I do think the Raptors are the superior team in this one.
You can't ignore the fact that Toronto are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games in Portland, but they were seven points clear going into the fourth quarter here last season and then were beaten in Overtime. They have been getting closer and I think the wrong team is being favoured in this one so I will take the point being given to the road team.
Friday 5th February
It was almost the most stunning of collapses from the Detroit Pistons who had led the New York Knicks by 27 points in the first half and by 24 points at half time. That lead was pegged all the way back to the Knicks actually leading with two minutes to go, but Detroit managed to pull the iron out of the fire and New York were not able to recover what would have been the biggest deficit in franchise history that resulted in a win.
There is no doubting that it would have been the worst bit of luck if Detroit hadn't covered, but it was a mental mistake from the Knicks that allowed that to happen in the end with a foul given away with three seconds left on the clock.
Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: The Miami Heat have been playing very well as their squad has improved in health but they have to face a Charlotte Hornets team who impressively saw off the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last game.
The Heat won't be disappointed if Kemba Walker has to sit for the Hornets for a second game in a row though as they have dealt with being short-handed for long stretches of the season. Walker is questionable for this game but Charlotte didn't miss him when beating the best team in the Eastern Conference in their last game.
A chance to move back to 0.500 is important for Charlotte, but Miami will also be looking to make sure their Play Off push continues going in the right direction. The Heat have won five of their last six games which has ensured they have maintained their winning record and I think they are playing well enough to beat Charlotte here.
The home team might have won the last six in the series between these teams, but I do think the Heat are perhaps being underestimated as the underdog. It isn't like they are massive dogs, but Miami are the better team especially if Walker sits out again along with Al Jefferson and I like the Heat to cover.
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers have admitted their second half performances in the last two games have left a lot to be desired. Against both Indiana and Charlotte, Cleveland had a big first half lead built up but a poor third quarter allowed their opponents to get back into things.
The Pacers failed to get the win, losing in Overtime, but Charlotte did beat Cleveland who are still a work in progress under Tyronn Lue. Now they return home to face the Boston Celtics with some bad blood still lingering from the way their First Round Play Off series developed last season.
That alone should focus Cleveland as well as the fact that Boston have won seven of their last eight games. The Celtics have thrived in the role of road underdog too so they have to be respected, but Cleveland do match up well with them and a more complete performance has to be coming after the last two on the road.
No one can doubt that Cleveland are much stronger at home and they have been scoring plenty of points. I think this will be a high-scoring game as both teams have shown some Offensive power of late, but I think the Cavaliers will cover as they would have done with this number in three of their last four home games against Boston.
Memphis Grizzlies @ New York Knicks Pick: There are two ways the New York Knicks can go on Friday night- either they ride the momentum of their second half performance against Detroit into this game or fatigue plays a huge part in their sixth consecutive loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Knicks recovered from that big deficit against the Detroit Pistons in a monumental second half effort, but I do wonder if they can emotionally pick themselves up having still lost the game. Coming back from 27 points down to lead with minutes remaining and losing has to have a mental impact on a team that has lost seven of their last eight games.
The starters all had to play in the comeback so this back to back is a tough spot for New York, especially when you think how well Memphis have matched up with them. The Grizzlies have won eight of their last nine including four in a row which makes them a very confident team while they are 6-2 against the spread against the New York Knicks.
New York have struggled as the home underdog of six points or fewer, going 11-23 against the spread in the last couple of years, and that game last night has to have taken something from them. I know Memphis are not a great road favourite to back as they are 1-4 against the spread in that spot, but they are rested, match up with New York and should have too much for the Knicks at Madison Square Garden in this one.
Saturday 6th February
The Cleveland Cavaliers had their third straight terrible second half performance which has led to a second loss in a row. Thankfully the rest of the Friday picks landed as expected and that has kept the week in a very positive position with two days left to go.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Portland Trail Blazers might have picked up some valuable wins in recent games, but they won't be able to get too far if they can't start beating the better teams in the NBA. A loaded Western Conference is unlikely to see Portland challenge for supremacy beyond the First Round of the Play Offs, but getting to the post-season is a genuine aim for the team.
The Trail Blazers just completed a seven game home stand, but that run was bookmarked by a pair of losses to teams with winning records. They now travel on the road to take on the Houston Rockets who have been improved but still struggling for the consistency they would have expected at the start of the season.
Houston haven't really been the team you want to back as the home favourite this season, but Portland are 3-7 against the spread when playing on the road against a team with a winning record. While the Trail Blazers have a strong record in Houston, I do think the spot is a difficult one considering they are off a long home stand.
I think the home team are healthy and Houston have been scoring plenty of points in recent games. With Portland not quite as effective on the road, I think the Rockets can find a way to get this done while covering the number.
LA Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The San Antonio Spurs have been looking for a big road win against a top team in the NBA and their blow out of the Dallas Mavericks on Friday certainly impressed. However, the defeats at the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers over the last couple of weeks have been a big disappointment for a team that has handled most of the challenges they have faced this season.
Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili won't be available for this game as the LA Lakers come to town along with retiring Kobe Bryant. Back to back wins have been rare for the Lakers all season, but they will come in looking for a third straight win, although it will take something very special to achieve that.
No one can deny how dominant the San Antonio Spurs have been at home this season and they have a very impressive 12-4 record against the spread when hosting a team with a losing record. The back to back shouldn't be a concern when you see San Antonio are 7-1 against the spread in that spot this season, while they blew out Dallas so well that they have rested their starters.
The Spurs have covered in three of their last four home games against the LA Lakers and I will back them to get over this very big number.
Sunday 7th February
Both of the picks on Saturday were very poor and showed little sign of actually being the right sides which was a disappointment.
The Sunday games are both scheduled for the early afternoon to ensure they are completed before the Super Bowl begins and I do have a couple of picks from the games to be played.
Denver Nuggets @ New York Knicks Pick: It has been a tough stretch for the New York Knicks and the chances that Carmelo Anthony suits up for this game are slim. Anthony is a huge piece of the New York Knicks future so they may opt to rest him through the All-Star break and hope he can be healthy down the stretch.
There have been plenty of positives in New York this season as the team has surpassed most expectations, but missing out on the Play Offs would still be a blow at this stage. The Knicks have lost eight of their last nine games and have lost four in a row which will have sapped some confidence, even though they have been competitive for the most part.
I don't doubt they are the favourites because the Denver Nuggets are not so strong on the road. However, the Nuggets have been playing well recently and look a team that could potentially get into the Western Conference Play Off picture in the next two months.
Denver have also thrived in their role as the road underdog this season, while they are also 8-4 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record on the road. It isn't a lot of points the Nuggets are getting, but I think this Denver sports team can cover on Sunday 7th February.
Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic Pick: The Atlanta Hawks finished with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference last season, but they have been far more inconsistent this time around. A streaky team, Atlanta have won three in a row and I think they will be too good for the Orlando Magic who have struggled over the last month.
This has been a game the Atlanta Hawks have enjoyed having won six of the last seven against Orlando, while they are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen games in Orlando.
Orlando have just been struggling at both ends of the court and they have allowed at least 100 points in seven straight games. The Magic have also lost eleven of their last twelve games and fifteen of their last seventeen as they have dropped off the pace when it comes to Play Off places in the Eastern Conference.
One thing that concerns me is Orlando have been 3-1 against the spread as the home underdog of three points or fewer this season, but I like the Atlanta Hawks to get the better of them in the first of a home and home series against them.
MY PICKS: 01/02 Cleveland Cavaliers - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
01/02 Dallas Mavericks + 6 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
02/02 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
02/02 Portland Trail Blazers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
03/02 Atlanta Hawks - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
04/02 Detroit Pistons - 5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
04/02 Toronto Raptors + 1 Point @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
05/02 Miami Heat + 1 Point @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
05/02 Cleveland Cavaliers - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
05/02 Memphis Grizzlies - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
06/02 Houston Rockets - 5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
06/02 San Antonio Spurs - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
07/02 Denver Nuggets + 2 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
07/02 Atlanta Hawks - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
February 1-7 Update: 9-5, + 3.23 Units
January Final: 21-23-2, - 3.80 Units
December Final: 27-21-3, + 3.67 Units
November Final: 27-22-1, + 2.69 Units
October Final: 5-4, + 0.57 Units
Season 2016: 80-70-6, + 3.13 Units
Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units
Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units
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