NBA Picks 2019/20 (July 30-August 14)

There isn't an aspect of our usual lives that has not been affected by the pandemic which has taken hold over the last several months and sports is no different.

Many are beginning to return in a new look and that is the case for the NBA who have decided to send their remaining twenty-two teams to a 'bubble' in Florida where the remaining regular season games and the PlayOffs will all be played.

It isn't going to be the same as previous years even if the format for the post-season is going to be what we have become accustomed to seeing- no home court advantage surely opens the door for a number of teams to perhaps surprise their way into a Championship success.

Going into the resumption of play I would still be very surprised if one of the two Los Angeles teams is not playing in the NBA Finals, but the Eastern Conference looks more difficult to predict. No fans and no home court advantage is going to level up the playing field and I do think the regular season games to be played will be a good indicator of which teams are going to cope with things best.

Eventually I do think the cream will rise to the top as players become used to the surroundings, but it will be interesting to see and I will admit it is very welcoming to have more live sports back in our lives. It sounds a little sad that so many can't cope without it, but sports is the great relief to everyday life and I do think the post-season of both the NBA and NHL will be bringing the drama that only sporting events can.

I will place all of the regular season picks from the next two weeks in this one thread before we get into a potential Play In situation.

Personally I would have loved to have seen the NBA take a risk with the format for these unprecedented times and perhaps set up a World Cup kind of format for the post-season, but ultimately Adam Silver and the players likely preferred the regular PlayOff setting to try and keep things as normal as possible.

It was a chance for the NBA, but the bigger concern is making sure everyone involved remains healthy and the teams can compete without fear during a time when cases in the United States continue to produce eye-watering, sad numbers.

I hope that is the least we see over the coming weeks and nothing like the outbreak already witnessed in the Major League Baseball season. From there we can enjoy the Basketball as the short run towards the PlayOffs begins on Thursday 30th July and then it is onto the fun of the post-season.

Thursday 30th July

Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick

The decision was made to use a 'bubble' at Disney World in Florida and that means there is going to be a new look to the PlayOffs and the end of the regular season.

While the format remains the same for the post-season, the fact that all games will be played in neutral settings does remove the need for travel and perhaps having to deal with the same issues that have popped up very early on in the Major League Baseball season which recently got underway.

One change in the PlayOff format is the chance for the Number 9 Seed in either Conference to have an opportunity to 'play in' to the post-season with the regular season cut short. It looks unlikely to be used in the Eastern Conference with only the Washington Wizards invited along who are not in the PlayOff spots, but the Western Conference has five teams looking to chase down the Number 8 Seeded Memphis Grizzlies and at least have a shot at beating them out for the final place in the PlayOffs.

There are some decent looking teams looking to do that knowing if they finish the regular season within 4 games of the Number 8 Seed that they will get an opportunity to make the post-season. One of those is the New Orleans Pelicans (28-36) who won two in a row back in March and who will open the NBA regular season bubble on Thursday.

Zion Williamson is the big name with the young Pelicans roster who are looking to make a point having traded away Anthony Davis to the Los Angeles Lakers before the season began. The irony is that the Pelicans would be looking to upset Davis' new team if they can make the PlayOffs and the Pelicans had won eight of their previous thirteen games to earn some positive momentum.

However, it has been made clear that the Pelicans feel the future is more important than the present and that means they are going to be careful with their young players. Instead of taking risks, the Pelicans will make sure the minutes are well spread to build experience which will put the team on a good platform for the years ahead when they will be looking to win a Championship.

There are some doubts about whether Williamson can participate in this opening game having recently returned to the bubble after being given permission to attend a family matter. He is only just out of quarantine and it feels the minutes will be restricted in a best case scenario.

Offensively New Orleans are a strong looking team, but Zion Williamson is already a leader for this young team and it will be a much tougher game for them without him. They did win all of their scrimmages getting ready for the restart, while the Pelicans are capable of plenty of energy around the boards to at least force second chance points, but this is far from an easy opening game.

The Pelicans take on the Utah Jazz (41-23) who have already secured a PlayOff spot, but who will be looking to perhaps improve their current Number 4 Seed in the days ahead. They are only 3 games behind the Los Angeles Clippers as the Number 2 Seed, but it is a tightly congested portion of the standings and a strong end or a poor one could see a vast difference in their final position.

It is also going to be a test of the chemistry of the Jazz who saw a falling out between key players Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell thanks to some of the most ridiculous actions you will have seen from anybody in the public eye. Those actions have to be attributed to Gobert's foolishness having dismissed the virus affecting the world and deciding he would touch all of the reporters and team mates' belongings without a care in the world.

Things changed for Gobert when he tested positive for Covid-19 and the strained relationship between himself and Mitchell came about after it was revealed the latter had also picked up the infection. It was largely blamed on Gobert's disregard for advice given to the public, but both players are entering the bubble trying to focus on their basketball rather than off court issues.

Judging by Rudy Gobert's comments, it feels like the Jazz are largely back on the same page now although they are going to be missing Bojan Bogdanovic for the remainder of the season. The sharpshooter was the second highest scorer on the roster and a serious threat from the three point range, but a wrist injury needed surgery and he will be replaced by Joe Ingles in the starting line up.

There is still confidence that Utah can be a real threat in the post-season having seen Ingles and Mike Conley playing well in scrimmages, but the intensity will be different now. Utah do have a good Defensive unit which always keeps them in games though and if those two players can find their range it should make Gobert and Mitchell big threats for the Jazz from an Offensive point of view.

Utah's big man might have been responsible for the decision to shut down the NBA when it was made, but the Jazz had been surging in a positive direction before that. The Jazz have won five of their last six games and they have already beaten the New Orleans Pelicans twice in three meetings in 2019/20.

All three games were high-scoring affairs, but the rustiness of coming out in the bubble is hard to factor into this game. If there is any, the Utah Jazz are the stronger team Defensively and that could give them the edge in a game in which it feels like they are set as the underdog because it 'means more' to the New Orleans Pelicans.

The early games in the NBA might need some watching too, but the Utah Jazz do hold a 9-4-1 record against the spread in their last fourteen against the New Orleans Pelicans. With Zion Williamson arguably still building up towards his peak levels, I think Utah will find enough scoring from the likes of Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley to edge to an upset win.

Utah are 6-0 against the spread in recent games set as the underdog and I think they can keep this one close at the least.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers Pick

Nothing has really changed over the course of the season and the Los Angeles Lakers (49-14) and the Los Angeles Clippers (44-20) are set to open up against one another on the first day of the new look bubble of the NBA. Home court advantage would not have been important when the Lakers and Clippers were likely to meet in the PlayOffs, but the neutral setting of the remainder of the season does take away from the Lakers who are set to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

That makes other Series on the way to the NBA Finals look potentially more dangerous and in the last eight games of the regular season it would need something miraculous to happen if the Lakers were to blow their 5.5 game lead at the top of the Conference.

Things are a touch more murky for the Los Angeles Clippers who will be desperate to finish with either the Number 2 or Number 3 Seed in the Conference. It would guarantee avoiding playing the Lakers until the Western Conference Finals and they are 3 games ahead of the Utah Jazz in the current Number 4 spot, although the First Round Series is going to be a tough one for the Clippers no matter how things end.

Both teams have lost some key players ahead of the resumption of play with Avery Bradley being the most notable for opting out of the season. The Lakers also going to begin without Rajon Rondo, who has an injury, but they have been able to sign the likes of Dion Waiters and JR Smith to make up for the losses and boost the bench.

On the other side the Los Angeles Clippers are likely going to be missing Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell who both had to leave the bubble. Better news comes from the likely suiting up of Patrick Beverley, Landry Shamet and Ivica Zubac, while the break will have given the likes of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard a chance to refresh.

That break may also be music to the ears of the Los Angeles Lakers with LeBron James as fresh as he ever would be going into the PlayOffs. His partnership with Anthony Davis has worked as well as the Lakers would have hoped over the last several months and Davis is expected to play despite being poked in the eye in a scrimmage game against the Orlando Magic last weekend.

In a seven game series I do think it is going to be very hard to separate the Lakers and Clippers if both teams are healthy. My edge would be with the Clippers, although in this opening game on the resumption of play you do have to think they are missing key contributors which gives the Lakers a real edge.

Both teams are strong Defensively, but the second unit of the Clippers will have been dented without Lou Williams, while I do think JR Smith and Dion Waiters can give the Number 1 Seed a boost. Neither team will want to show too much of their hand with their Seeding positions largely in control and with seven more regular season games to complete to secure their spots.

Scrimmage games have shown that both the Lakers and Clippers look to be in good shape and it is a series in which the underdog has had the better of things in 2019/20. All three previous games have been won by the dog, but here I do think the Lakers will be able to square things up for the season having lost the first two games and beaten the Clippers just days before the suspension of play back in March.

My feeling is that the Lakers might be more keen to lay down a marker in this one ahead of a potential Series in the PlayOffs and the key contributors missing for the Clippers will be hard to make up.

However it may be more likely that the two teams are looking to hide some of their cards for a potential PlayOff Series and that may see the two Defenses coming out on top. Games between the Lakers and Clippers have been tough affairs already this season and the potential rustiness of the teams for the intensity of a real NBA game might just slow them down too.

With the Clippers and Lakers both missing some key players, I think the total may be very slightly on the high side here and looking for a fourth 'under' of the season between these two may be the best play.


Friday 31st July
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: There are some big Seeding games in the NBA on Friday, but the return of Basketball also means you may want to take a watching brief on some of the teams involved. While there are six games scheduled on the day, only one of those is appealing enough from a NBA Pick point of view.

That comes from the second set of games scheduled for the day's play when the Portland Trail Blazers (29-37) take on the Memphis Grizzlies (32-33). If the regular season had been completed as planned it may have been difficult for the Trail Blazers to close the gap to the Number 8 Seeded Grizzlies, but the new look end to the season gives them a chance with a strong finish.

One or two players in the Memphis camp are not happy with the new rules which state that the Number 8 Seed has to finish at least 4 games clear of the Number 9th placed team in either Conference to earn a guaranteed PlayOff spot. That is not likely to be an issue in the Eastern Conference, but the Grizzlies have a host of teams below them that are almost certain to finish within that mark and that will mean a 'Play In' situation.

It would mean the Number 9 Seed needs to beat the Number 8 Seed twice to steal their PlayOff spot, while the Number 8 team would only need to win once, but the Grizzlies do feel it is another obstacle in front of them in what has been a season of overachievement. That overachievement gives them some confidence though and Memphis had won four of their last six games before the sudden postponement of the NBA back in March.

The Grizzlies have the size to challenge the Portland Trail Blazers and during the regular season they have played pretty well at both ends of the court. A young team have certainly played above the levels that most expected of them and Ja Morant has been everything the Grizzlies would have hoped when Drafting him last year.

A few months ago the Grizzlies would have been very confident they could secure a season success over the Trail Blazers who reached the Western Conference Finals last season. There were some suggestions that the big names in the Portland camp would not be involved in the resumption of play, but Damian Lillard's biggest issue is a foot problem he is dealing with although that is not expected to keep him out of this one.

Trevor Ariza is one player that won't be involved, but the four and a half month break between games in the regular season has boosted the depth of the Trail Blazers. Both Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins would have missed the regular season if the season had completed when it should have, but both are ready to go now and that is a big boost for the Trail Blazers.

It should help them, but you can't expect massive things from players who have not played a competitive game for months. However, if both Nurkic and Collins are back up to the levels that we know they can play at, the Portland Trail Blazers may be the most dangerous team in front of the Memphis Grizzlies when it comes to the final spot in the Western Conference PlayOffs.

Those big men can give the Grizzlies a real challenge on the boards and I do think the underachieving Portland team will be a threat in this short run to the post-season. Defensively the Trail Blazers can be vulnerable though and you do have to wonder if their team is ready to go right away having struggled in the scrimmages preparing for the restart.

My feeling is that Portland may be a touch overrated at the beginning of the resumption because we don't really know how their returning players are going to cope. The young Memphis team will feel they have nothing to lose and they are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven against Portland which includes beating them outright in two of the three earlier meetings.

Add in the fact that the Grizzlies are 10-4 against the spread when given 4 or fewer points as the underdog this season compared with Portland being 7-10 against the spread as the small favourite and I do think backing the underdog may pay off here.

It isn't a huge spread, but Memphis might be able to score enough points to stay with the Trail Blazers and force this game to go down to the wire.


Monday 3rd August
I had a couple of busy days so I was not able to put in the kind of research needed to make any NBA Picks as the regular season continues in the NBA bubble in Orlando.

It has been a weekend with some mixed results as teams try and rediscover the chemistry and consistency they would have had without the long break from playing competitive basketball.

I do think by the time the PlayOffs will come around that the teams will all be in better shape, but for now you have to expect some ups and downs.

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Home court advantage is not going to exist in the NBA PlayOffs in 2020, but that doesn't mean any team wants to roll into the post-season with no momentum behind them. There is plenty of movement in terms of Seeding in the Western Conference to come in the days before the PlayOffs and only 3.5 games separate the Number 2 Seeded Los Angeles Clippers and the current Number 6 Seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (41-24).

Bridging that may be a step too far for the Thunder, but they can certainly improve their current spot and that will begin if they can beat the Denver Nuggets (43-23) as both teams get set to play a second game in the NBA bubble.

The Thunder crushed the Utah Jazz, but a short-handed Denver team were blown out by the Miami Heat on the same day. It does mean the Thunder have a bit more momentum behind them having picked up from where they left off in March, and they will be looking to win a fifth game in a row and move into a position where they can control the kind of PlayOff path they want to lead.

Expectations have been surpassed by the Thunder throughout the 2019/20 season and the team do feel they have been given a huge boost by a returning Andre Roberson who was one of the elite Defenders in the NBA before suffering a long-term injury. Roberson has looked like an improved player in the NBA bubble, although his minutes will be restricted for now to make sure there isn't a setback.

With Chris Paul leading the team, the Thunder look in confident mood but the same cannot be said for the Denver Nuggets. They gave up 125 points to the Miami Heat on Saturday and Will Barton, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray were all missing.

We don't know if any of those players will be available for the Monday game with the Thunder, but it does mean Denver are going to struggle to contain Oklahoma City. Despite being short-handed, I do think the Nuggets will have expected a much better all around in their loss to the Miami Heat and that should make them more competitive in this one even if those three mentioned are unavailable again.

Denver struggled at both ends of the court in their opening loss in the NBA bubble, but there will be a demand to show more intensity on the Defensive side of the court. That should make them more competitive, but Oklahoma City have a very strong Defensive team from which the foundation for success this season have been built.

The Thunder are 14-4 against the spread when favoured by less than 7.5 points this season and the Nuggets are 5-8-1 against the spread when given up to 7.5 points as the underdog. Oklahoma City have also been strong when playing teams with a winning record and they did beat the Nuggets when these teams last met a few months ago.

Denver do have a very strong recent record against Oklahoma City, but they failed to cover for the first time in ten games against them last time out. The Nuggets are also 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as the underdog and I do think Oklahoma City will just have a little too much on both ends of the court which helps them cover this mark.


Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pick: Only nine teams were invited to the NBA bubble from the Eastern Conference and most felt it was going to be a big ask for the Washington Wizards (24-42) to even force a 'Play In' situation for themselves. That was mainly down to the fact that some key players were not going to join their team in the short run to the PlayOffs and ultimately the Wizards have looked unlikely to trouble any team in the top eight.

Losing to the lowly Phoenix Suns is one thing, but on Sunday afternoon the Wizards were beaten by the Brooklyn Nets and now trail the current Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference by 7 games. To make matters even tougher on the Wizards, they become the first team that is going to be asked to play on back to back days in the bubble and they are going to be desperate to find a win.

That may make Washington a dangerous team, but they are without the likes of John Wall, Davis Bertans and Bradley Beal and most teams would find it difficult to plug those gaps. The team have struggled all season Defensively so when you miss those players who can take the scoring load on their shoulders it does gel together to become a very difficult situation all around.

Scott Brooks is not allowing his team to give up, but the Wizards have a very difficult set of remaining games and another defeat would virtually end their season. By hook or by crook Washington have to win out, but it is going to be a tough game in front of them when they meet the Indiana Pacers (40-26) who look to have recovered some health in the enforced break that was provided by the Coronavirus outbreak.

A win over the Philadelphia 76ers in their first game in the NBA bubble will give the Pacers some real confidence even if they are not considered a threat to the top teams in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers will be looking to use that expectation to motivate them and they are a team that is perhaps better than the sum of their parts.

Indiana do have a team that can exploit the Defensive shortcomings in the Washington squad, while they are very strong on the other side of the court. Rebounding could be a problem for them when they get into the PlayOffs, but this is not a game where that should be an issue for the Pacers and putting that together makes them a strong favourite.

I have to respect the fact that the Wizards have a 7-2 record against the spread when playing the second of a back to back this season. However, those games were played with a deeper looking rotation than the one they are using in the NBA bubble.

The Wizards are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six games as the underdog including being covered in both in the bubble so far. Indiana are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against the Washington Wizards.

Knowing the PlayOff situation is beginning to slip away from them and having so many big name players missing is going to make it difficult for the Washington Wizards to motivate them in the remaining days in the NBA bubble.

Some of the players may already be thinking about returning to their families and a team like the Indiana Pacers could expose any lack of motivation in the Washington squad.

It is a big mark, but the Pacers can beat out a team on the second half of a back to back and I think they can cover here.


Tuesday 4th August
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Pick: We are already beginning to see some of the potential PlayOff Series coming together in the NBA bubble and that is especially the case in the Eastern Conference where the top eight teams are almost certainly set.

The Milwaukee Bucks are almost guaranteed to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference and the teams below them in the standing are looking to position themselves to make sure they can avoid having to play them before the Eastern Conference Finals. A win on Tuesday would put the Boston Celtics (44-22) in a position to effectively wrap up a top three Seed and that would mean they can build up towards the potential Finals clash with the Bucks as players improve their fitness.

It is the last chance for the Miami Heat (42-25) to close in on the Boston Celtics in the spot above them in the standings, although making up the 2.5 game gap at this stage looks a long shot. The Heat are playing on a back to back having lost a close on to the Toronto Raptors on Monday and some inside the locker room may believe it is better to tank out the remainder of the regular season and fall as low as the Number 6 Seed if possible.

That is an unlikely mindset with a player like Jimmy Butler leading the Heat, but this is a team who have struggled playing the second half of a back to back all season. They invested a lot of effort into the Monday defeat to the Raptors while the Boston Celtics were resting and Miami are just 3-6-2 against the spread in that spot this season.

Miami have also struggled when put in the underdog spot and the Celtics have covered the mark in the last three against them including in both games played this season.

Both teams are 1-1 since joining the NBA bubble, and I do think both are very capable of having a deep PlayOff run. However the additional rest for the Celtics and perhaps the game meaning a little more to them could make the difference.

It does mean they can play the more intensive Defense which is a key to the outcome of the game and Boston should be fully concentrated on this game to make sure they are on the opposite side of the bracket to the Milwaukee Bucks. There isn't a game on deck which should take away the concentration of the Celtics and I think they will have enough to cover here.


Wednesday 5th August
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz Pick: There are always going to be conspiracy theories surrounding a new look schedule like the one the NBA had to put together, but the loudest voices insist the Memphis Grizzlies (32-36) are not the kind of team that the League would like to see in the First Round of the PlayOffs.

The Play In tournament was one aspect going against the Grizzlies, while the end of the 'regular season' in the NBA bubble looked a tough one and so far it has gone the way the NBA would like, at least according to those shouting conspiracy.

Memphis have lost all three games played in the bubble and are now only 1.5 games clear of the Portland Trail Blazers and with a host of other teams closing in too. At this point a 'Play In' may be the best bet for the Grizzlies, but securing the Number 8 Seed in the Western Conference would at least mean the Number 9 ranked team would have to beat them twice to steal away their PlayOff spot.

To that end the Grizzlies need to start winning as it looks like both the Trail Blazers and the San Antonio Spurs have some momentum behind them. The upcoming games are anything but easy and the Grizzlies have lost Jaren Jackson Jr for the season, although they may not have a better opponent to face than the Utah Jazz (42-25) who have lost back to back games.

Losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers is much different than losing to the Memphis Grizzlies and the Utah Jazz have managed some Fourth Quarter scoring to overcome the New Orleans Pelicans in the bubble. There are some questions about the Jazz on both ends of the court which need to be answered before the PlayOffs begin, and motivation should remain high for a team who are still playing for Seeding in the Western Conference even though home court is no longer an issue.

There was always a concern for the Jazz that they would miss the scoring punch that was given to them by Bojan Bogdanovic who shut things down for the season prior to the resumption of play. It has proven to be the case so far, although Utah are facing one of the weaker teams in the bubble on Wednesday rather than those looking to go deep in the PlayOffs and that proved to be a winning situation last week when edging out the Pelicans.

If the Grizzlies make as slow a start as they have to each game in the bubble then it will be very difficult to peg back a Jazz team that is still strong Defensively. However, performing for the full 48 minutes has been on the mind of the players and with Ja Morant still performing as he has been, the Grizzlies will definitely believe they can make a good fist of things and at least end the losing run.

Utah just may not have enough scoring to really pull clear of this mark if the Grizzlies are making a strong start to this one. They deserve to be favourites because the Jazz have won two of the three meetings between these teams in the 2019/20 season, both straight up and against the spread, but things are very different for both teams in the NBA bubble and Utah have not played to a level which makes you think they can win easily.

The Jazz are just 2-13-2 against the spread in their last seventeen games as the favourite and it can't be ignored that the Memphis Grizzlies have been in competitive losses in the NBA bubble. None of the defeats have come by more than 10 points and the first two losses were by 5 points or fewer.

Add in the Utah sole win that either team has produced came by a couple of points and I do think the underdog is worth backing here.


Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic Pick: Both of these teams are very much on course to enter the PlayOffs and depending on the way things go in the next few days there is every chance that this is a preview of one of the First Round Series in the Eastern Conference.

The Toronto Raptors (48-18) are the defending NBA Champions, but not many tipped them up to be capable of repeating having lost a couple of key performers in the off-season. None were more important than Kahwi Leonard, but the Raptors have rallied together and three wins in the NBA bubble over the Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat have given people pause for thought.

All of a sudden it is not solely about avoiding the Milwaukee Bucks for as long as possible with the Raptors arguably looking as strong as any going for the NBA Championship. They can effectively wrap up a top two Seed in the Conference with a win on Wednesday and the Raptors will then be able to rest bodies and minds before the PlayOffs begin, although the spot is one that concerns me between big games against the likes of the Lakers and Heat and then having the Boston Celtics on deck.

It could easily lead to a situation where the Orlando Magic (32-36) are overlooked by the Raptors having been beaten three times in the regular season already. The Magic do have a healthy lead over the Washington Wizards in the Number 9 spot in the Eastern Conference which would see them avoid a Play In situation, but Orlando will be looking to bounce back from their blow out loss on Tuesday to the Indiana Pacers.

Before that the Magic had won their first two games in the NBA bubble, but the surprising form shown by the Brooklyn Nets means Orlando have slipped into the Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference. They can pick and choose which of the top two teams they would want to face, but teams in their position just simply want to go into the PlayOffs with some momentum behind them.

A part of the reason for the blowout loss may have been the injury suffered by Jonathan Isaac in the previous game. After returning from a long lay off, Isaac looked to be playing really well and is a key Defensive piece for the Magic and the whole team may have started off feeling sorry for themselves in the defeat to the Pacers.

It has been made clear to the entire squad they will need to be a lot better to compete with either Milwaukee or Toronto in a potential First Round Series, but Orlando do produce enough Offensive output to be dangerous to those teams. The Magic will need that side of their game to be operating at close to full tilt if they are going to challenge a Toronto team who thrive on Defensive intensity and it will be a key to the outcome of each game these teams play in the remainder of the season.

You would expect Toronto to have enough Offensively to hurt the Magic considering the levels the latter have produced and now being without Jonathan Isaac, while the Raptors also have the energy around the boards to win the rebounding battle.

The Raptors have covered in the last five games between these teams and Orlando are 3-5-2 against the spread in ten games played in the second half of a back to back. 

Orlando are also 9-18-1 against the spread this season when playing a team with a winning record and I think the Raptors can make it four from four both straight up and against the number in this one.

MY PICKS: 30/07 Utah Jazz + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

30/07 Los Angeles Lakers-Los Angeles Clippers Under 216 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
31/07 Memphis Grizzlies + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
03/08 Oklahoma City Thunder - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/08 Indiana Pacers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
04/08 Boston Celtics - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
05/08 Memphis Grizzlies + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
05/08 Toronto Raptors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

NBA Update: 3-3, - 0.23 Units

NBA Picks November 2019 (November 1-10)

The first couple of weeks in the NBA 2019/20 season are in the books and anyone making sweeping statements about the way the campaign is going to develop could be in for a shock in a couple of months time.

In saying that there are one or two things that have come to light which might see the layers adjusting their spreads in the weeks and months ahead.

First off is the fall from the top of the NBA food chain that the Golden State Warriors are seemingly going through. Losing Kevin Durant to Free Agency and Klay Thompson for the season through injury was going to be difficult to handle, but Steph Curry broke his hand and the Warriors have been blown away in three of their opening four games which has many tipping them to miss the PlayOffs completely.

I do think this is a work in progress and it is going to be difficult to replace three All Stars in the short-term, but it might allow the roster to just come together and find some rhythm without the pressure they perhaps felt under in the opening couple of weeks. Now no one is expecting Golden State to compete so things may settle down for them, although this is a team I am keeping a watching brief on at the moment.


At the start of the season most also felt the NBA Championship could be decided in Los Angeles with the Lakers and Clippers favoured to come out of the Western Conference and go on and win the title in June. The Clippers struck the first blow with a win over the Lakers on the opening night, but the Lakers have looked very strong now Anthony Davis is motoring and it does look like these two will be right alongside one another in May.

The Houston Rockets and a loaded Western Conference will be using words like this to motivate them with plenty believing it is a two horse race out West and I do think it will be a rocky road to the Western Conference Finals. I would not want to part with too much cash to oppose the Los Angeles teams, but this won't be as easy as some might think.


I think things will be clearer in the Eastern Conference for much of the season with the biggest intrigue being the order in which the Seeds finish. All of the likely names have looked pretty good to open the season, but one early disappointment has been the Brooklyn Nets.

Bringing in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant has really pumped up the expectation for the Nets, even though most felt Durant would not be available until the 2020/21 season. The latest reports that Brooklyn are a little worried about Irving's mood swings is a concern and was the main reason I didn't want the New York Knicks to sign him.

We have seen Irving blow up any chances of the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Championship last season with his lack of leadership a real concern as far as I opine anyway. That was why I thought it might be a bad move for the Knicks who have some talented younger players on the roster, and the Nets might soon have a case of 'buyer's remorse' if Irving is not able to build a better chemistry with his team-mates.


I will be placing the NBA Picks from the first ten days of the November month in this thread and will then use new threads over the last three weeks of the month. It should make the NBA Picks easier to follow as I look to build on a slight profit that was earned in October.


Friday 1st November
Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: There was a real sense of expectation with the Los Angeles Lakers when they finally managed to get the trade for Anthony Davis over the line from the New Orleans Pelicans. I wanted to have something of a watch to see how Davis would fit in with LeBron James early in the season having seen the likes of the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers just have a few issues dealing with an uber-talent like LeBron, but the Lakers seem to have a different methodology in play.

While LeBron was the clear 'go to' player for the Heat and Cavaliers as he took begun to dominate those super-teams, it feels like James is happy to play for Davis here in Los Angeles. That saw Davis join an elite list of Basketball greats who have scored 40 points and secured 20 rebounds for the Lakers in the same game and any concerns about a sore shoulder is not holding him back.

Anthony Davis and LeBron James both understand how important it is to make a good start to the season and also build their chemistry to show the Lakers are ready to return to the PlayOffs and make a big impact when they get there. Beating up on the Charlotte Hornets and Memphis Grizzlies at home is not that impressive and the Lakers have lost to the Los Angeles Clippers so this is a real chance to show they are for real when going out on the road for the first time in 2019/20.

The Lakers visit the Dallas Mavericks who have made a decent enough start to the season and showed the rest of the NBA what is possible when they build around Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic. The win in Denver was a huge boost for the players, especially as they won against last season's Number 2 Seed in the West with both Porzingis and Doncic struggling.

Tim Hardaway gave the Mavericks a big boost from off the bench having struggled to open the season, but this is going to be a tough challenge for a young roster considering how well the Lakers have played Defensively to open the season. Scoring enough points to stay with the Lakers will be a challenge as the visitors are likely going to have a productive day on the Offensive side of the court against a young team making a few Defensive mistakes.

Los Angeles might have the edge on the boards and they are visiting Dallas who are 0-2 against the spread at home this season. The Lakers are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five against Dallas and I think this will be a competitive game that is just edged in favour of the visitors.


Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings Pick: There were plenty of boo boys out in force in the last Sacramento Kings game which saw them blow a big lead and suffer a fifth defeat to open the 2019/20 season. They were big favourites against one of the weakest teams in the NBA in the Charlotte Hornets, but the Kings could not maintain their performance levels and were beaten again.

Now they have to host the Utah Jazz who might be flying under the radar as the most under-rated team in the Western Conference. They have moved to 4-1 for the season after beating the Los Angeles Clippers and the sole defeat suffered by the Jazz has come at the hands of the Los Angeles Lakers which underlines the kind of level they are capable of producing.

Finding that energy might not be as easy to come by in this game as Utah have already blown out the Sacramento Kings this season while they are heading to the Staples Center to take on the Clippers on Sunday. However Mike Conley had the best game of his very short Utah career last time out and will be looking to back that up, while the Defensive performances of the Jazz make them a very tough team to beat.

No team has scored more than 96 points against Utah this season which is impressive considering they have faced the two Los Angeles teams who have been looking very strong Offensively. They have only allowed teams to shoot at 40% from the field and limited the Kings to 37% when beating them last week.

It doesn't look a very easy task for the Kings to change that narrative, and they have simply not been able to stop teams on the other end of the court either. The Jazz should be successful shooting the ball from the three point mark and I also think they will be stronger on the glass which should help them make it two wins from two against Sacramento.

Sacramento had a poor ending to last season which saw them just miss out on the Western Conference PlayOffs and they are now 3-13 against the spread in their last sixteen games. The Jazz have not been a great road team to back and have not covered in either game on the road this season, but they are stronger when it comes to playing those teams with losing records.

I don't think they will overlook this game even with the Clippers game on deck and the Defensive strength of the Jazz should see them pull through with a win and a cover.


Tuesday 5th November
The NBA is well underway, but I do think it can be difficult to find selections this side of the All Star Break.

The last three days have been difficult and I have not found the kind of options I am happy to be behind. That has changed on Tuesday, although I am hoping I am not being a square in this NBA Pick.


Los Angeles Lakers @ Chicago Bulls Pick: There is no doubt I was a little fortunate to be on the right side of a winner with the Los Angeles Lakers at the end of last week when they managed to force Overtime before beating the Dallas Mavericks on the road. They conclude a three game road set with this game at the Chicago Bulls before heading home for big home games against Eastern Conference opponents.

The Lakers have opened up with a 5-1 record after securing another victory at the San Antonio Spurs to make it five in a row since losing on the opening night of the 2019/20 season. I can't really argue that they have played top, top opposition, but the Lakers have not had an easy schedule and they are now going up against a Bulls team who have made a disappointing start to the season.

Chicago were not expecting to be challenging for a PlayOff spot in the Eastern Conference, but the 2-5 start has been even lower than those limited goals. Defeats to the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers underlines where the Bulls are at the moment and they are going to need a big effort to knock off one of the favourites to win the NBA Championship at the end of the season.

The Bulls may also seem some split loyalties from the fans who might want to remind Anthony Davis what home feels like. Davis has been immense for the Lakers since coming in off a trade, but he made interesting comments about his home town team with some suggestion he could consider signing with Chicago at the end of this season when hitting Free Agency. That is going to appeal to the home crowd who may be preparing a friendly welcome for Anthony Davis.

Anthony Davis won't need much encouragement to be honest having shown why the Lakers were desperate to trade for him before the 2019 trade deadline. A double-double is likely on the cards again, but Davis will also be well supported by his team-mates including LeBron James who have been efficient from the field and now face a Bulls team who have struggled to stop teams.

To make the challenge that much more difficult for Chicago, they have not been consistent enough with the ball in their hands. Now they are going up against a Defensive unit that has allowed just 40% of successful shots from the field during their five game winning run and the Lakers would have covered this line in four of their five wins.

With a likely edge in terms of production around the glass, I do think the Lakers can be backed at the current line. They are in the midst of some favourable trends and the Lakers are 4-0-1 against the spread in the last five against the Chicago Bulls too.


Wednesday 6th November
Time has been an issue to write down full analysis from the NBA Picks on Wednesday, but you can see my selections below.


Thursday 7th November
It has not been a good week for the NBA Picks and part of the frustration has to be the close defeats I have suffered with the Lakers and the Raptors in the last couple of days. Hopefully better is to come on Thursday, although it might be time to take a few moments to reset and get back to basics if things don't go the way I anticipate.


Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: There is going to be some real emotion in the building for Kemba Walker who will be making his first appearance in the Spectrum Center in the opposition jersey on Thursday. For eight years Walker has been a member of the Charlotte Hornets, but he was frustrated with the contract offer received despite giving up a hometown discount and eventually decided he would move to the Boston Celtics.

Kemba Walker has been signed to replace departing Kyrie Irving and he is averaging 26 points per game while being a key part of the 5-1 start the Celtics have made. This is a team who still feel they have the big pieces to make a run at the Eastern Conference title even with both Irving and Al Horford moving on to potential rivals.

It isn't just Walker who has been impressing, but Gordon Hayward looks to have fully recovered from the injury suffered in his first game for the Celtics two years ago. He was the key to the win at the Cleveland Cavaliers a couple of nights ago and Boston have some momentum to bring into this one where you have to believe the team are ready to back up their new team-mate Walker in a game that will mean a lot to him.

The Celtics are amongst the favourites in the Eastern Conference, but the Charlotte Hornets were expected to be going through a transitional season as they moved on from an All-Star to a much younger looking roster. They rallied from a huge deficit to beat the Indiana Pacers in their last game and move back above 0.500 for the season, and in Terry Rozier they have a player who will want to show the Boston Celtics what they are going to be missing this season.

The stronger Defensive performances being produced by the Celtics should prove to be a real difference maker in this game. While the Hornets have struggled on that side of the court, Boston have gone back to basics in making sure they able to produce their Offensive output from a strong Defensive standpoint.

If the starters can come out hot, the Celtics can get into a lead that will be difficult to peg back for the Hornets after putting in such an effort to recover last time out against the Pacers.

The Celtics are actually 12-3-1 against the spread in their last sixteen games against the Charlotte Hornets and the added motivation of wanting to produce a win for Kemba Walker should put them in a good place. Charlotte have made a stronger than expected start to the season as indicated by their winning record straight up and also against the spread, but the Hornets are 2-2 against the spread when given 5 or more points.

There is no doubting this is a big enough spread, but Boston can do enough on both ends of the court to get the better of the overachieving Hornets.


Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns Pick: The spot would have been a much more ideal one to oppose the Miami Heat if they had not been blown out by the Denver Nuggets last time out and also had been favoured to win here on the road. However, in saying that, the Heat are on the first of a back to back and the second half of this is a trip to the Los Angeles Lakers which has to be on the minds of the players.

It is a tough situation to deal with a young Phoenix Suns team who have won three in a row to move to 5-2 for the season and who have Devin Booker playing some lights out basketball against. Booker might be the most talented young player in the NBA, but he has spent too long playing on a team with a losing record and is obviously keen to change that narrative this season.

The whole system being used by Head Coach Monty Williams looks to be gelling very well with the Phoenix Suns and all of the players feel comfortable running what they are being asked. Devin Booker is the obvious standout player with an average of over 26 points per game, but others are stepping up too and will give the Miami Heat a few issues here.

Miami have signed Jimmy Butler to give them a bona fide star in the NBA and they will be happy with the 5-2 start made to the season. The blow out loss to the Nuggets will have hurt, but it is one game out of eighty-two and the Heat are definitely a contender for a high Seed in the Eastern Conference.

Overall I have little doubt that Miami are going to finish with the better record than the Suns, but I do like the spot for the home team. They are well rested and have a couple of days before they face the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers in home games which will be exciting for the fans and the players, but Miami having to meet the Lakers tomorrow looks to be a more immediate distraction.

The Heat do have a very strong record in recent games against the Phoenix Suns and that includes a 10-1 record against the spread in the last eleven here. I have to respect that, but this looks a good spot bet situation and I will back the Suns to get the better of them as a slight home favourite.


Friday 8th November
New York Knicks @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: At this stage of the NBA season teams are still figuring out their own identity and so backing any to overcome a double digit spread is not really for me.

Unless the spot calls for it.

This is one of those situations when the Dallas Mavericks at 5-2 host the 1-7 New York Knicks. The records might suggest there is a big gap between these teams, but it is the motivation of Kristaps Porzingis which could really inspire the home team to put a statement win on the board on Friday.

Porzingis is a former New York Knick who was traded to the Dallas Mavericks as the Knicks looked to create the room to build a super team at Madison Square Garden. Like many of the plans laid out by the New York Knicks in the last few years, things have not worked out anywhere near where they would have liked and instead the fans are likely going to have to suffer through another difficult season in the weak Eastern Conference.

The back to back blowout losses to the Sacramento Kings and Detroit Pistons have knocked the confidence of the Knicks players and the feeling that a mismatched roster had been put together is not lost on the fans. RJ Barrett continues to play very well in his rookie season, but the Knicks have struggled without a lead Point Guard and the Head Coach is now feeling the pressure from a fanbase who are fed up of cheering a team that has struggled under his watch.

The Mavericks only just moved to 5-2 last time out as they edged the Orlando Magic at home and it is hard to believe they will be favoured by such a spread many times this season. In fact Dallas have not covered as a favourite of 6 or more points this season which is a concern when backing them, but I expect every player to want to rally around Porzingis in his first game against his former team and that can inspire a dominant win.

A key to the success could be the Dallas three point shooting which has been effective enough to hurt the New York Knicks. If they can keep the Knicks at around their season average of 41% shooting from the field, I do think Dallas can pull away in this one.

All of the recent trends suggest the Knicks would be the right side here, but you can't factor in the emotion of the home team and this is a spot selection.

MY PICKS: 01/11 Los Angeles Lakers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
01/11 Utah Jazz - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
05/11 Los Angeles Lakers - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
06/11 Detroit Pistons - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
06/11 Atlanta Hawks - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
06/11 Toronto Raptors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
07/11 Boston Celtics - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
07/11 Phoenix Suns - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
08/11 Dallas Mavericks - 11 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

November 1-10 Update: 3-5, - 2.27 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.38% Yield)

October 2019: 6-5, + 0.41 Units (11 Units Staked, + 3.73% Yield)

NBA Picks October 2019 (October 22-31)

NBA 2019/20 Season

It doesn't feel that long since the Toronto Raptors picked up their first ever NBA Championship with a stunning upset of the injury hit Golden State Warriors, but the NBA is an ever-evolving League and it says a lot that neither are considered leading contenders to win the Championship in the 2019/20 season.

The era of the Super Team looks to be over with teams now going with duo superstars rather than the three man rosters we have become accustomed to seeing. There are plenty of teams who will feel their two man superstar teams will be well complemented to go all of the way in the 2019/20 season, although some teams may have to wait and see how their off-season work comes together.

One of those is the Brooklyn Nets who managed to sign Kevin Durant and have him join Kyrie Irving in New York City. For a long time the rumour was that the New York Knicks were going to be the destination for those two players, but the Nets will have to wait and see how Irving and Durant operate together with the latter out for the majority of the season with an Achilles injury suffered in the NBA Finals.

The Knicks were really the big losers in the off-season as they somehow still not end with the Number 1 Draft Choice and the likely signing of Zion Williamson like many had hoped. Dreams of having Zion, KD and Irving playing in the blue and orange at Madison Square Garden were quickly shattered and this looks to be another tough season for the Knicks who will know Gotham headlines are likely to be stolen by Brooklyn.

We have seen both Los Angeles teams make strides which have them at the forefront of the favourites list- LeBron finally got to be paired up with Anthony Davis at the Lakers, while the Clippers didn't let that bother them as they signed NBA Champion Kawhi Leonard and managed to trade for Paul George to complement what has been an improving roster.

I like the Clippers more than the Lakers right now, but LeBron has always been my guy so I have to hope he can grab another Championship. I've never been a fan of the Lakers, and always hated the bandwagon jumpers of any dynasty, but with James there I hope they have a major season.

The Western Conference remains loaded as Houston put James Harden and Russell Westbrook together- that's either going to be genius or a total disaster- while the Golden State Warriors still have enough Championship mentality to remain competitive until Klay Thompson is back to help Steph Curry and Draymond Green.

Teams like the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz will be much improved out West, while you have to think the Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics will all be better in 2019/20 after perhaps not achieving their total goals in 2018/19.

And then we have the Toronto Raptors- the Champions will enjoy this season but they look weaker without Leonard and had so much go their way on the way to the maiden title. Fans should enjoy the ride, and the Raptors should be a PlayOff bound team in a weak Eastern Conference, but winning back to back titles would be a bigger upset than the one they won last season.

I am looking forward to this season which looks very competitive and there are plenty of teams who will make noises that I haven't mentioned too.

But if you held a gun to my head right now and said pick a team to win it all? I would go with the Los Angeles Clippers to beat the Milwaukee Bucks in six games next June.

The NBA Picks had a slight loss for the season despite finishing with a positive in the PlayOffs including a very small win in the NBA Finals. I am still disappointed the loss as the outcome of the season, but the positive results from the PlayOffs is something to build upon.

Like I have done in recent seasons I am going to break up the threads for the NBA Picks throughout the course of the 2019/20 year, but this opening one will cover all ten days in October.

The next thread will likely take in November 1-10 before they become weekly until the end of the month. It does mean they don't get massively long if I was going to put my entire NBA Picks from November in one thread, and also should be easier for people to read.

Updates to the season record will be left daily even when there may not be any selections for that day.

Tuesday 22nd October

The NBA gets back underway on Tuesday 22nd October as the defending Champions Toronto Raptors take to the court and raise their banner from the 2018/19 season.

The second game might be more interesting to the casual fans though as the first battle of Los Angeles takes place between two teams that could easily be representing the Western Conference in the NBA Finals next June.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The Championship banner is going to be raised at the Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday as the 2019/20 NBA season gets underway with the defending Champions Toronto Raptors hosting the new look New Orleans Pelicans.

Both teams are going to have a different feel coming out of the 2018/19 season and in another reality this is actually a match up between Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors against Zion Williamson and the Pelicans. Both players are not going to be on the court here though after Leonard decided to go home to Los Angeles, while Williamson was the Number 1 Pick in the NBA Draft for New Orleans, but is not expected to play his first NBA game until the middle of November at the earliest.

That really is no excuse for the players taking to the court, but New Orleans also have to deal with the fact that their roster has been significantly reconstructed out of the trade which sent Anthony Davis to the Lakers. Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram should be playing with a chip on the shoulder after being seen as disposal by Los Angeles, while Derrick Favors has plenty of potential that has yet to be fully fulfilled.

Jrue Holiday might be a player that is going to be under some trade scrutiny in the months ahead but he does provide the Pelicans with a genuine piece to build around if that is what they want to do. He will feel he can have a big impact in this game and down the line if teams are perhaps not as focused on how good New Orleans could potentially be.

I don't think that will be the case in the opening game even though the Toronto Raptors have the distraction of being involved in a banner raising environment. Personally I like how the players have taken the thoughts of so many that the Raptors are now perhaps the fourth or fifth best team in the Eastern Conference without Leonard and that should mean the players left here rally together.

While I don't think the Raptors can repeat as NBA Champions, I do think they have enough on their roster to be tough and resilient throughout the season. Kawhi Leonard was banged up in the NBA Finals, but the likes of Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Pat McCaw will believe in their abilities to go along with Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka and that should keep the Raptors in a good position.

Under Nick Nurse I expect the Raptors to continue to play decent Defensive basketball and make sure they move the ball Offensively which gives them a chance to win plenty of games. I do really believe in this team in game one of the season when they have spent a couple of months hearing about how the Raptors are no longer a competitor without their best player from the 2018/19 season and that should mean a big performance on opening night.

The Raptors don't have the best recent home record against New Orleans against the spread, but I think the defending Champions will come out looking to make a statement on Tuesday. There is plenty of experience to call upon and the Pelicans are blooding in a number of new faces that might just see them make a few mistakes during the first forty-eight minutes of the season.

With a focused Toronto team coming out to remind everyone they are capable of defending their Championship, I expect the home fans to push the team forward and the Raptors to cover the spread in this one.


Wednesday 23rd October
I was a little fortunate with my first pick of the NBA season as both Toronto and New Orleans had the chance to win the game in regulation time which would have met a non-cover for me regardless of who hit the bucket.

However both missed and I was on the right side with the Raptors who managed to win by eight points in Overtime.


Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers Pick: The second pick of the NBA season is going to come from the Bankers Life Fieldhouse Arena in Indiana as I look for the home town Pacers to make a positive start to the season when they take on the Detroit Pistons. Both of these teams made the Eastern Conference PlayOffs a few months ago, but both were swept out of the First Round without being competitive and so there is work to do for both to improve.

I would still suggest the Pacers and the Pistons will both be chasing a spot in the PlayOffs again this season with a weak looking Eastern Conference certainly having some openings at the bottom of the top eight. But out of the two teams I think the Pacers have more upside and they certainly should be able to show that in the opening game of the 2019/20 season.

Victor Oladipo's injury was a major blow for the Pacers last season, but they managed themselves just well enough in the regular season to earn the Number 5 Seed. There is still some time needed before Oladipo is to return, but the business conducted by the Pacers in the off-season has been very positive and some solid veterans arrive to just take the entire roster up a notch.

Jeremy Lamb and Malcolm Brogdan are two solid looking arrivals, but the question when major changes are made is how quick the chemistry can come together. A pre-season together is one thing, but the pressure of a regular season game is very different and I think that is something that the Pacers will have to watch out for early in the season.

With that in mind it might be a surprise to read that I am siding with the home team and that is mainly down to the fact that they have dominated this series with the Detroit Pistons, are at home and the visitors are missing a key piece of their team in Blake Griffin. Even Reggie Jackson is banged up, although he should play here, but Griffin was a huge influence in helping the Pistons get back into the PlayOffs and it may be tough to replace his production for the weeks he is on the sidelines.

Detroit have made some interesting signings with Derrick Rose's latest stop being here, but I do think they are not the same team without Griffin in the line up.

The home team is 8-2 against the spread in the last ten between these teams, while the Pacers are 8-1 against the spread in the last nine that they have hosted Detroit.


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic Pick: The moment LeBron James decided he was going to leave the Cleveland Cavaliers for a second time and move to Los Angeles, the team left behind were scratching for a way to improve. The first time James left it took a long time to recover to the point that Cleveland did not make the PlayOffs for the four seasons LeBron was not here and only returned when he did.

It is unlikely that James will be back to save this team a second time so it is up to the Cavaliers to put the pieces together to improve, although I am not holding out a lot of hope that they will surpass the 19 wins secured in the 2018/19 season. This still looks like a selling club and even though Kevin Love starts here, I would be stunned if he is still around by the time the trade deadline comes to pass.

Kevin Love did only play 22/82 games last season so there is a hope his return to full health will help this team, but Cleveland look like they are going to be giving a lot of their younger players a chance to gain some experience and show they can be part of the long-term project here. Opening day should see the players highly motivated, but it may be difficult on the road for the Cavaliers and especially as they are going up against a PlayOff team from last season.

The Orlando Magic finally returned to the NBA post-season for the first time since 2011/12 and like that season they were beaten in five games in the First Round. However it has to be seen as a huge positive to be back in the PlayOffs and the Magic have been able to keep the roster together and add a couple of pieces that may be able to give them another push forward in a Conference that is not as loaded as the West.

Markelle Fultz is the big name that has signed for the Orlando Magic as the former Number 1 Draft Pick looks to get his professional career going. He has only managed to play 33 games in the last two years since being selected by the Philadelphia 76ers, but there have been plenty of positive noises coming from the Magic about a player who has all the talent in the world as long as he can stay healthy to show it.

With the top players from last season all back, Orlando should be able to get off to a strong start and get the better of a big looking spread. The Magic have beaten the Cavaliers three times in a row at home and two of those wins have come by double digits which would be enough to secure a cover here.

Orlando covered this line in March when these teams last met and I think they have a little more chemistry in their rotation than the Cavaliers which can see them do the same here.


Thursday 24th October
It was a mixed bag on Wednesday with the NBA Picks going 1-1, but it is too early in the season to make sweeping statements about teams.

Thursday has a good slate of games with the two Prime Time games looking very appealing to NBA fans. I only have the one pick from the three games as I look to get behind a team being opposed by the public.


Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: Any team playing in the Western Conference is going to be able to point to spots on the schedule and look at a very difficult set of games, but the Los Angeles Clippers showed on opening night that they are ready for the challenge. The game with the Los Angeles Lakers might have been played in a shared Arena, but the Clippers will have no doubts that the Lakers are the favoured team in tinseltown and it is up to them to prove everyone wrong.

That should give the Clippers motivation in a season where they are considered the favourites to win the NBA Championship thanks to the signing of Kawhi Leonard. His partner in crime, Paul George, will be missing again, but the Clippers showed how good they can be by beating the Lakers who are considered the second favourites in pre-season.

Winning as the underdog was a huge boost for the Clippers, but the situation has turned on Thursday as they get ready to face the team that have won the Western Conference five times in a row, but who have been written off by many.

The Golden State Warriors have lost Kevin Durant in Free Agency and Klay Thompson with an injury in the 2019/20 season and that has seen many even tip them to miss the NBA PlayOffs. I have no doubt those clippings and videos have been well documented in the Warriors locker room and I am surprised people expect them to fall off a cliff with Steph Curry and Draymond Green still around.

A home opener in a brand spanking new Arena is going to be a celebration for the Warriors and I think they are going to be desperate to land a statement punch on the team many expect to take over as Western Conference Champions. This looks a good spot for the Warriors to do that because the Clippers would have put in a lot of emotion for the win over the Lakers on Tuesday and will have to find that same energy again as a favourite on the road.

I don't doubt the motivation for Los Angeles will be high to show they are ready to be the team to beat, but Golden State have spent the entire off-season hearing about how their dynasty has ended. That, coupled with the new Arena being opened in the regular season, has to be a huge motivational tool for Curry and Green and I am looking for the pair to lead a new look roster to a very strong performance.

The Clippers have a depth that has to be respected, but the spot here might not be ideal as I have mentioned and backing the home underdog looks the play. Los Angeles do have a strong road record in recent games against the Warriors, but the whole scenario has changed with the Clippers favoured and there is no doubt that is going to change the mindset here too.

I will admit this is very much a spot play as I do think the Clippers will prove to be the better of the two teams in April, but the energy invested on Tuesday and now playing a rested team looking to show the rumours of their demise have been greatly exaggerated makes the home underdog the play. The fact the money percentage are pounding the Clippers doesn't hurt either and I'll take the points here.


Friday 25th October
All credit has to be given to the Los Angeles Clippers who have quickly shown why so many have tipped them as the favourites to win the NBA Championship this season. A blow out of the Golden State Warriors in their new Arena underlines the credentials just days after beating the Los Angeles Lakers.


Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings Pick: Both teams are coming off disappointing losses in their openers and they will meet on Friday night looking to get back up to 0.500 in what is going to be a very tight and competitive Western Conference. You can't earn any PlayOff spots in October, but poor starts can be very difficult to overcome especially in a Conference that is loaded as the West is this season.

The Portland Trail Blazers are seen as a team that could potentially slip down the Rankings this season and miss out on the post-season, but they reached the Western Conference Finals in 2018/19 and will the return of Jusuf Nurkic will give them another boost.

In the mean time Hassan Whiteside is going to fill the gap that Nurkic has left and he had a strong first outing with the Trail Blazers which has given the rest of the team some confidence. Losing a home opener before embarking on a road trip is not ideal for the Trail Blazers, but they have the confidence of a team that has reached the PlayOffs in six straight seasons.

Damian Lillard is hoping to have another strong game for the Trail Blazers after scoring 32 points in the opener, but he is going to want to see an overall improvement with the performance from the three point range. That could be a critical part of this game after the amount of three pointers the Trail Blazers allowed, but they might be catching the Sacramento Kings at a good moment.

There is much to like about the young Sacramento roster and the hope here is that their team can kick on having flirted with the PlayOffs last season. The Kings are playing under Luke Walton this season and he will want to see a big reaction to the 29 point loss to the Phoenix Suns, although the Kings might be short-handed for the first of back to back games.

Buddy Hield spoke like he would play this game barring any soreness in the day between games, but De'Aaron Fox could be doubtful. Even if both suit up I do think there is a real chance they are going to be nowhere near 100% and that could give the Trail Blazers to continue the dominance of this series.

Portland were beaten last time they played in this Arena, but they are 4-1-1 against the spread in the last six in this series. They can improve that by winning as the road favourite before moving onto Dallas on Sunday.


Monday 28th October
I didn't really have the time to research the NBA Picks this weekend and that is something that is going to happen at times during a long regular season.

It has been a positive start to the new season, but I am looking to build on that momentum in the last four days of October beginning with the selections from the Monday offerings which can be seen below.


Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: There is no doubting that anything less than an appearance in the NBA Finals would be seen as a disappointing season for the Philadelphia 76ers. Joel Embiid was missing over the weekend, but that didn't stop Philadelphia moving to 2-0 for the season so far, although this is going to be a significantly tougher test than beating a banged up Detroit Pistons team.

On Monday the 76ers have to visit the Atlanta Hawks who have already put two upset wins on the board. There is a real movement being put together with a young Atlanta team who were hoping to be much closer to the PlayOff picture in the Eastern Conference at the end of this season than they were last season when going through something of a transition.

The Hawks are far from a finished product, but Trae Young is a superstar in the making and the moves the front office are putting together is really transforming this team very quickly. Young has been a vital piece of the reason the Hawks have begun 2-0 having scored 38 points against the Detroit Pistons and 39 against the Orlando Magic to help knock off two teams who made the PlayOffs in the East last season.

Other players will have to step up if the Hawks are going to beat Philadelphia because the latter are further along in their evolution as a team even without the services of Embiid. The blow out win over the Boston Celtics shows what Philadelphia are all about, but they needed to dig in deep to win in Detroit and it won't be lost on the 76ers heading to Atlanta that they were beaten in the last three game of the four game series with the Hawks last season and that includes losing on both visits to the State Farm Arena.

It is far too early to make sweeping statements about the capabilities of teams over the course of the season when they have played two games in October. But I have to say I have liked the way the Hawks have gone about their Defensive play with a young roster and I feel they have enough scoring to keep this one close as the home underdog.

Both teams have some very strong trends that have to be respected and both have begun the season with plenty more positives than negatives, but Atlanta will like the match up if last season is anything to go by. There is no excuse about fatigue at this stage of the season and the Hawks are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven when hosting Philadelphia which makes them worth a back here.


Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings Pick: A few days ago I mentioned the Sacramento Kings are a little banged up to open the new season and that has proven to be a hindrance to a team that was hoping to take the next step in their development this season. After coming close to the Western Conference PlayOffs last season, the Kings were hoping to kick on with a young roster, but the players are not at 100% and that has led to some heavy losses on the way to a 0-3 beginning.

They play for the third time in four nights on Monday, but the Kings did have a chance to rest some tired limbs on Sunday having seen the starters chased from the game in the blow out loss to the Utah Jazz last time out. There has been some travelling involved which is not always ideal for a time looking to find their feet and the Kings are now going to have to host one of the best teams in the Western Conference who continue to fly under the radar somewhat.

The Denver Nuggets have opened 2-0 after seeing off the Phoenix Suns in Overtime last time out, but they will be looking for a much more well rounded effort. There is a feeling that the Nuggets are still looking to get their groove going from an Offensive standing, but they might not have been able to pick a better opponent than the Kings who have allowed teams to shoot 53% from the field and 40% from the three point line in their opening defeats.

It is hard to recover from that anyway, but facing a Nuggets team who have been strong on the Defensive side of the court does not bode well for the Kings. Luke Walton will already be feeling some stress from the pressure that comes with being a Head Coach of a team looking for signs of development and this looks a difficult spot for his young team.

Denver might have struggled Offensively for the most part, but they are shooting the ball very well from the three point arc and I expect that to be a difference maker for them on the day. They have had a very successful time playing in Sacramento in recent visits and I think the overall performance will be enough for them to cover the mark in this game.


Tuesday 29th October
It was a strong Monday with two more winners added to the start of the NBA season thanks to the Atlanta Hawks and Denver Nuggets both doing just enough to cover in their games against the Philadelphia 76ers and Sacramento Kings respectively.

Both are on a back to back on Tuesday and I am going to have a play from both of their games, although this time I will be opposing one of the teams who did me a favour on Monday evening.


Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat Pick: After battling as hard as they did for 48 minutes, the Atlanta Hawks will be disappointed that their unbeaten start to the season came to an end with a narrow home defeat to the Philadelphia 76ers. It is not ideal for them to be playing on a back to back and a third game in four nights, but the Hawks are a young team and I think there will be plenty of energy in this game at the Miami Heat.

The Heat had a day off between this game and their first defeat of the season against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but the fans should still be pumped as they will likely be getting to see Jimmy Butler for the first time. Butler was the big off-season acquisition which has moved Miami up most lists in terms of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, but Miami have been playing very well without him from an Offensive point of view and it will be the strong Defense that the All Star offers which could be vital at this stage of the season.

Miami have averaged 120 points per game in their first three this season, but they are allowing 114 points per game at the same time. It will take time to work Butler into the team especially as it means rookie Kendrick Nunn will have his minutes eaten into and it is Nunn who has provided a huge Offensive spark for the team.

This is going to be a test for the whole Offensive output of the team when they face the Hawks who have been making it difficult for teams from the field through the opening days of the NBA season. Potential fatigue has to be in play here with a third game in four nights which may loosen them up somewhat, but I do think the Hawks have been playing well on the other side of the court which will at least make them competitive again as they have been as the underdog throughout the 2019/20 season so far.

The team who can impose themselves best from the three point arc is going to be in with every chance of winning this game outright. Both teams have defended that point of attack very well well so far and I do think the Hawks can keep this one close even on a back to back.

Atlanta are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games when playing on a back to back, while they are 10-2 against the spread in their last twelve as the road team. The Heat do have some favourable recent trends too which have to be respected, but the Hawks are 4-0 against the spread in the last four in this series.

In fact the underdog has really thrived with a 16-5-2 record against the spread in the last twenty-three between Miami and Atlanta and I think the points can be taken in this one.


Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets Pick: It was more strong Defensive play which helped the Denver Nuggets move to 3-0 for the season and remain one of just four NBA teams who have yet to taste defeat in 2019/20. They rallied to overcome the Sacramento Kings by seven points on Monday and only one team has scored more than 100 points against the Nuggets and even that team needed Overtime to do so.

If you are a Nuggets fan you have to be positive with the way things have started for a team that almost finished with the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference last season. The development will come for a team who have now experienced PlayOff Basketball and Denver are almost certainly one of the favourites to be playing in the post-season again at the end of the regular season.

In saying all that, the players themselves know they have to be better Offensively if they are going to challenge in a loaded Conference filled with superstars and strong teams. Nikola Jokic is the standout for Denver, but he struggled with his shot on Monday and the team in general are shooting just 39% from the field.

There should be more room against the talented Dallas Mavericks even though this is a team who are still very young and looking to develop over the course of the season. So far the Mavericks have had wins over a couple of teams that are expected to struggle this season while losing to the Portland Trail Blazers who are a regular name in the Western Conference PlayOffs.

Dallas are allowing teams to shoot at 45% from the field, but in Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Doncic they do have two very young and talented players who can cause problems for teams from an Offensive standpoint. I expect these two players to be influential in giving Dallas the platform to at least make this a very competitive game and I think that is what we are going to get on Tuesday.

I can't ignore the fact that Denver have played well in the second of a back to back with their 5-1 record against the spread in the last six in that position. However Dallas have been really good on the road when facing the better teams in the NBA as they are perhaps a little underrated at the moment and they are also 5-2 against the spread in the last seven against the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets have been winning plenty of games against Dallas at home where they are a dominant team, but the margins of the last four wins have been 3, 2, 8 and 1 point differences. With the points we are being given here, I like the Mavericks on the road.


Wednesday 30th October
There is no doubt the injury suffered by Trae Young had a big impact in the way the Atlanta Hawks game at the Miami Heat developed and you can only hope one of the more talented youngsters in the NBA is not set for a long spell on the sidelines. We should find out about that in the coming days, but it didn't look good and you never want to see the League missing its best players for any length of time.

The Dallas Mavericks ensured it was not going to be a losing day though as they rallied for the upset at the Denver Nuggets and I am looking to wrap up October with a couple more winners in the last two days of the month which can ensure a strong start to the 2019/20 season.


New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic Pick: After missing out on the likes of Zion Williamson (lottery did not go their way) and Free Agents Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, the New York Knicks decided to blend veterans on short contracts with some developing young players. Seeing the likes of Irving and Durant rock up across the road with the Brooklyn Nets would have really stung a franchise that is no longer the sparkle in the NBA that it once was and it does mean the rebuild has slowed down significantly compared to where owner James Dolan and a long-suffering fanbase would have been hoping it would be in the 2019/20 season.

The Knicks are at least off the mark having dropped their opening three games before holding off the Chicago Bulls as the home underdog last time out. Only the defeat to the Boston Celtics at Madison Square Garden has been very uncompetitive and that should give the Knicks some belief, although there are going to be inconsistencies in a long season with so many younger players being given the chance to impress.

One that has little doubt of doing that is RJ Barrett who was the 3rd Overall Pick in the NBA Draft- once the disappointment of missing Williamson subsided, the Knicks fans know they have a real player on their hands here and Barrett is averaging over 20 points per game in his first year in the NBA.

New York are going to need everyone to rally to the pump to challenge the Orlando Magic despite one of the PlayOff teams from last season opening up at 1-2 in this campaign. The Magic have suffered disappointing back to back losses to fall below 0.500 and they have to be a little concerned with some of the Offensive output being produced, although I do think they are facing the right team to get things turned around too.

Even then this feels like a big spread and one that the underdog can get within following a morale boosting victory last time out. The Knicks are shooting the ball well enough to challenge Orlando and have the size to beat them out on the boards too which could be key and I do think it is hard to trust a team to cover a spread like this one off back to back losses.

Backing up wins is the next step in the development of the New York Knicks and that is a nagging doubt in the back of the mind. However, it is easy to believe the Magic could still overlook New York when you think that the Milwaukee Bucks are the next team on their schedule. Even off two losses, Orlando fans and players will know they can make a big statement by taking on and beating one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and I do think that may play a part and allow the Knicks to play this one close.


Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: There are some major things expected of the Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets in the 2019/20 NBA season, but it has been a difficult start for both teams. Even though Kevin Durant was ruled out for the upcoming campaign, the Nets signed both him and Kyrie Irving to give their team the superstars to take the step to the next level in the NBA, but so far it has been a mixed opening.

Kyrie Irving is playing his part as he averages over 37 points per game, but there have long been questions about his leadership and mentality and more of those have arisen in the last few days. For some reason Irving can become very introverted despite being considered a leader and that has seen previous teams become a little tired of his antics which then festers in the locker room.

Some reports have even suggested the Nets are somewhat worried by what they have seen just three games into the season with the team at 1-2 thanks to an Overtime loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. That is the second Overtime loss they have suffered already this season and the players around Irving are still becoming used to playing with a new face having had some good chemistry last season.

There will be some worries in Brooklyn, but they are facing an Indiana Pacers team who have surprisingly lost all three games played including twice to the Detroit Pistons. With some new faces around while waiting for the return of Victor Oladipo, there was some concern that the Pacers might struggle out of the gate, but losing those games to the Pistons and also to the Cleveland Cavaliers is not a good look.

Of course things can turn very quickly in the NBA when a team can suddenly become very hot from the field, but the Pacers have struggled mightily with their Defensive schemes that is allowing teams to hit almost 50% of their shots from the field. There is an eye-watering 44% of shots landing from the three point arc and I really do think Brooklyn are going to expose some of those issues in this game.

The Pacers do have a good recent record in Brooklyn, but this Nets team is a little different than the ones they have faced. Indiana have struggled for covers on the road which is a real concern and Brooklyn should be well rested having had a couple of days between this game and the last one played.

While Brooklyn have some poor numbers against the spread as a team that tends to be a touch over-rated by the public, they are 15-6 against the spread when given two days rest between games and I like them to win and cover here.

MY PICKS: 22/10 Toronto Raptors - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/10 Indiana Pacers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/10 Orlando Magic - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/10 Golden State Warriors + 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
25/10 Portland Trail Blazers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
28/10 Atlanta Hawks + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
28/10 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
29/10 Atlanta Hawks + 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
29/10 Dallas Mavericks + 6 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
30/10 New York Knicks + 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
30/10 Brooklyn Nets - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

October 2019 Update: 6-5, + 0.41 Units (11 Units Staked, + 3.73% Yield)

Season 2018/19: - 1.22 Units (- 1.20% Yield)