NFL Week 8 Picks 2021 (October 28-November 1)

It was a bounce back week for the NFL Picks and I am looking to put some momentum behind the selections in what has been a very good start to the 2021 season after overcoming the Week 1 nightmare.

There is plenty of the regular season to go to change the view of the season all around, so it is important to not get too far ahead of ourselves, but there are positives.

I will be adding to this post before the Sunday games, but I do have a Thursday Night Football selection this week when two of the top NFC teams meet out West.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: Thursday Night Football has been a little disappointing over the first seven weeks of the NFL season, but this is a genuinely important game between two of the top teams in the NFC. Make no mistake, the game between the Arizona Cardinals (7-0), the last unbeaten team in the NFL in 2021, and the Green Bay Packers (6-1) could have massive PlayOff Seeding implications down the line.

You won't normally talk too much about Seeding in Week 8 of the NFL season, and especially not with the additional seventeenth game on the regular season schedule in 2021, but the NFC does have a feeling of being a Conference involving the 'haves and the have nots'.

The Cardinals and the Packers will feel they have the quality to win their Divisions, although there is perhaps a tougher path for the Arizona Cardinals to tread in the NFC West. They have beaten the Los Angeles Rams, but this is a team that will push the Cardinals, while the Green Bay Packers do not have to deal with another team with a winning record in the NFC North.

A few days ago this certainly did week like a really big game, but the Packers have been hit hard by Covid-19 issues and they are likely going to be without Allan Lazard and Davante Adams. The short week doesn't help and those Offensive absences are a blow to the team, while Green Bay have injuries in the Secondary and will also be without their Defensive Co-Ordinator.

It certainly means planning for this game has become all the more difficult, but the Packers will roll into the desert knowing they still have Aaron Rodgers and have won six in a row. Aaron Rodgers may be one of the top Quarter Backs in the NFL, but he could be forced to lean on the Running Back corps in this one without his top Wide Receiver.

That would normally be a blow for the Packers, but I think the Offensive Line will be able to give Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon some room on the ground which can be exploited. In recent games there has been an improvement with the way the Cardinals have been able to clamp down on the run and that despite facing teams like San Francisco and Cleveland. This will be encouraging for them and the Defensive Line will be bolstered by the return of Chandler Jones this week too, meaning Arizona should be able to put Aaron Rodgers under pressure if they are able to force Green Bay into obvious passing Downs.

Aaron Rodgers would normally be someone I would be happy to rely on to make his plays even under duress, but without Adams at Wide Receiver it may be more difficult for the Quarter Back. Even the 6-0 record Green Bay have without Davante Adams is not one that Rodgers is pushing too hard and I do think the pass rush will get to the Quarter Back if the Cardinals continue to play the run as hard as they have over the last few games.

The Cardinals do look healthier and they had a comfortable win in Week 7 which should mean they are ready to 'prove themselves' again on Thursday with the nation focused on this one game. Kyler Murray continues to play at a really high level, but he will be hoping his own Number 1 Receiver, DeAndre Hopkins is able to suit up having failed to practice so far this week.

Kyler Murray is also capable of moving the chains on the ground and stopping the run continues to be a big effort for the Green Bay Packers. The Cardinals should be able to hand the ball off to Chase Edmonds and ask the Running Back to keep the team in third and manageable spots and I do think he will be able to couple up with the Quarter Back to establish the run.

There is a real possibility that Edmonds will be given plenty of touches in this game with the addition of his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and I do think he is going to be a key player for the Arizona Cardinals. If there is no DeAndre Hopkins there will be some challenges moving the ball through the air, but the injuries in the Secondary that the Green Bay Packers are dealing with makes it difficult to believe they can completely shut off the Cardinals from being able to throw the ball on them.

I do think this is a big spread and Aaron Rodgers is someone who will be heading into Thursday Night Football knowing that many are ruling out the Green Bay Packers with all of the issues they are dealing with. He could easily secure a backdoor cover, but I do think the Cardinals will be able to make enough plays up front that could see them just stall enough drives to help them remain unbeaten and also cover this mark.

The public are backing the road team, but the sharps seem to be on the Cardinals with the spread ticking up over the last couple of days. Arizona have not been a great home favourite to back in recent years, but they are 2-1 against the spread in that spot this season and I do think the short week will hinder the preparation that the Green Bay Packers can do to cover holes on both sides of the ball.

I am expecting a fun game, but I think the Arizona Cardinals can win and do enough to cover the spread as they remain the only unbeaten team in the NFL this season.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: They have a two game lead at the top of the AFC South and the Tennessee Titans (5-2) will be heading into this Divisional game with plenty of swagger having knocked off the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs in back to back weeks. Some may feel the Titans are the team to beat in the AFC after those wins, while a win here would likely mean they have one foot in the PlayOffs even with more than half of the regular season remaining.

The Titans have already held serve at home against the Indianapolis Colts (3-4), but their hosts look to have come out of an early storm and back to back wins have them moving in the right direction again. Wins over Houston and San Francisco may not be anything to write home about, but Indianapolis look healthier now than when they were beaten by the Titans in September and there is much to like about them.

The public are behind the Titans as a road underdog, which is not going to surprise many considering the wins we have seen in the last couple of weeks. However, it is the sharps who have gotten behind the Indianapolis Colts and that has seen the spread move very much in favour of the home team.

I do think the spot is a tough one for the Titans and even playing a Divisional opponent may not be enough to see them motivate themselves having beaten what many have considered to be the top two teams in the AFC. The dominant win over the Kansas City Chiefs will inspire, but Tennessee and Indianapolis have challenged each other significantly in recent seasons and I do think they match up well with each other.

Carson Wentz and the Colts were struggling Offensively when they were beaten at Tennessee, but the Quarter Back looks like he is playing with a lot more confidence now. This is the player that the Colts felt they were trading for and he should be able to have a stronger outing against the Titans.

The Indianapolis Offensive Line is getting stronger and they have begun to bully teams in the trenches which has seen the team establish the run very effectively. It is so important for the Colts to be able to do that as it sparks the entire Offensive game-plan and the feeling is that the Colts will have a big outing from Jonathan Taylor both running the ball and catching out of the backfield.

Over their last three games, the Titans have given up some big runs on the ground and the Colts should be able to keep Carson Wentz in third and manageable spots. It should mean the Quarter Back is given time in the pocket when he does drop back to throw, while the play-action is going to be a real threat for the home team against a Tennessee Secondary which have given up some big numbers even accounting for the three points allowed to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7.

With the Colts expected to have success, Tennessee's best option may be trying to control the clock with Derrick Henry who continues to be one of the top Running Backs in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, the Titans have been very good at getting Henry going, but they are facing a Colts Defensive Line which have improved and really begun to clamp down on the run.

They couldn't quite fully contain Derrick Henry when they met earlier this season, but the Colts have looked better up front in recent games and the key for the team is trying to force Ryan Tannehill to have to beat them with his arm. Ryan Tannehill has played well as the Tennessee Quarter Back, and there are some strong Receivers on which he can rely, but the Titans roll through Derrick Henry.

Taylor Lewan could be back to offer Tannehill more protection on the Offensive Line, but the Colts were able to rattle him in the first game between these AFC South rivals and I do think the home team can 'upset' the public.

Both teams should be able to move the ball, but the Colts are the more desperate team and may be able to make a few more plays against the run which could see them eventually pull clear.

The favourite is 8-2 against the spread in the last ten between these Divisional rivals. Indianapolis have not been the best home favourite to back and they do play on Thursday Night Football, but that is against the lowly New York Jets and the Colts are desperate to get back into the Division race by winning this game.

Opposing the public is a bonus, while the Titans are just 3-17 against the spread when playing on the road against a Divisional opponent with a losing record. That might just be one of those awkward trends that come up in the NFL, but the Indianapolis Colts look like they are playing with real Offensive balance that can see them beat a team off the back of consecutive emotional wins over top AFC rivals.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets Pick: Disclaimer out of the way first- this is a horrible spot for the Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) who are playing a third road game in a row having blown out the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens to earn the top Ranking in the AFC after seven weeks of the 2021 season. The win over a Divisional rival in Week 7 means this is a perfect sandwich spot for the Bengals who will be playing the Cleveland Browns next, so why would they be focused on playing an awful non-Division opponent?

However, I think even a 50% effort from the Bengals may be enough to beat a short-handed New York Jets (1-5) who were embarrassed last week in a blow out loss to the New England Patriots. They lost Zach Wilson for up to a month and that means the New York Jets are going to have to give the Quarter Back spot to Mike White who has never started in the NFL before.

Mike White came in and threw for over 200 yards in the loss to the Patriots, but the two Interceptions have to be worrying for a Jets team who have been really poor Offensively all season. They also also having to play on Thursday Night Football this week and it could see a really ugly performance produced in front of their own fans in what is a huge rebuilding job.

The Jets will look at the Cincinnati Bengals for inspiration as to how quickly things can turn around in the NFL if making the right Draft decisions, but in Week 8 of the 2021 season this is a huge mismatch.

As long as Cincinnati are focused and not overlooking this team anyway.

You have to believe Cincinnati are going to be able to do whatever they like Offensively with a healthy team heading to New Jersey for this game. They have a good balance on this side of the ball and skill players like Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon have been contributing all over the field.

In recent games the New York Jets Defensive Line, which has been the strength of the entire team, have been struggling and I do think Joe Mixon can keep the Cincinnati Bengals in manageable Down and distance throughout the game. The Bengals Offensive Line have also given Joe Burrow time to make his plays from Quarter Back and the Jets Secondary don't really look up to the task of slowing down the Bengals.

Those skill players will be getting plenty of headlines, but the reason I feel the Cincinnati Bengals can cover a huge spread on the road is because of the level being produced by the Cincinnati Bengals Defensive unit. A Quarter Back who may be considered a third choice by most teams will find it difficult to make consistent plays against Cincinnati and I do think Mike White is not going to help the Jets score many more points than the 13 points they are averaging in 2021.

It all starts up front for the Jets who have not been able to run the ball efficiently and that has put pressure on the inexperienced Quarter Backs they have been trotting out onto the field. They are not likely to get much out of the Cincinnati Defensive Line either and I do think Mike White will find himself under duress in third and long spots with the Offensive Line offering very little in pass protection.

Teams have had some success throwing against the Bengals as they have been forced to play catch up, but the Cincinnati Secondary have been up to the task and they have only allowed 18 points per game. You have to believe that the Bengals should be too strong for the Jets even with a little bit of focus on the game and they should have too much Offensive firepower for their hosts.

There is an opportunity for a backdoor cover for the Jets, and they have played well enough as a home underdog. However, the overall trends have shown that the New York Jets are a bad team as they have not been very good at the window either and Cincinnati can improve their 4-1 record against the spread in their last five games as the road favourite.

Cincinnati have won by big margins on the road already at Pittsburgh, Detroit and Baltimore this season and they look to be meeting the Jets at the right time.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: It is going to be incredibly difficult to peg back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South this season and the defending Super Bowl Champions look like a team on a mission to win back to back Championships. However, for the likes of the Atlanta Falcons (3-3) and the Carolina Panthers (3-4) may still believe there is a possibility to earn a Wild Card spot and the two games they will play against one another are going to be vital.

The momentum is with the Atlanta Falcons who are hoping to use the feel-good factor in the City to help them in Week 8. The Falcons have won back to back games with their Bye sandwiched in-between, and the players have spoken about the World Series being played over this weekend in Atlanta as helping the fans arrive at the Stadium feeling really good about their teams.

Atlanta will be hosting a Carolina Panthers team that have lost four in a row and who have seemingly begun to lose faith in Quarter Back Sam Darnold. The former New York Jet came to the Panthers in a trade this off-season, but a fast start has been much replaced by signs of Darnold regressing to the player they will recognise in Gotham.

The continued absence of Christian McCaffrey does not help the cause, but Carolina have been able to run the ball with limited success. They will need to do that if they are going to test this Atlanta Defensive unit, especially with the Defensive Line showing better signs of being able to clamp down on the run.

It is so important for the Falcons to try and limit the Carolina Panthers up front, and it will expose Sam Darnold who will have begun to 'see ghosts' again as the Offensive Line have failed to keep the pressure from getting in and around the young player. The Falcons don't have the same kind of pass rush as some of the top Defensive units in the NFL, but making Sam Darnold throw from third and long spots should see Atlanta make enough plays to slow them down.

The passing game has really been struggling and the Panthers have to deal with the improving Atlanta Offensive unit.

Matt Ryan is playing at a much higher level than Sam Darnold and over the last three games the Falcons are averaging 314 passing yards per game. It has largely been down to Matty Ice considering the lack of a run game that the Atlanta Falcons have generated, but the Panthers Defensive unit have been wearing down after beating up on some of the worst teams in the League.

Carolina are struggling in both stopping the run and the pass and I do think the Falcons will be the more confident Offensive unit taking to the field which could see them do enough to win and cover.

The Falcons do have an important game with the New Orleans Saints on deck, but this is a Divisional game in front of a fanbase that is likely to be heading off to support the Braves later in the evening. That should mean there is plenty of positive support for the home team to keep them motivated and focused on a big Divisional game.

Atlanta are 5-1 against the spread in the last six at home against the Carolina Panthers.

They are also 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen against a team with a losing record.

I have to respect how well the Panthers have played when set as the road underdog, but they look short of confidence and I think the home team can pull clear for a win and a cover.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: A loss in Week 6 would have hurt the Buffalo Bills (4-2), but they are the only team in the AFC East with a winning record and there will still be a real feeling that this team is going to be able to finish with the top Seed in the AFC. Coming out of a Bye Week, the Buffalo Bills are looking to bounce back when they play a Divisional opponent they have begun to dominate in recent years.

The Bills have already smashed the Miami Dolphins (1-6) on the road and things have gotten bad to worse for the Dolphins since that defeat. It has been the spark for the six game losing run for the Miami Dolphins who look way off the team that finished 10-6 in 2020 and there are some questions about the Coaching.

Tua Tagovailoa remains the Quarter Back despite the rumours that have been linking the Dolphins with a move for Deshaun Watson. He arguably produced his best ever NFL performance in the narrow loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 7, but it was not enough to lead the Dolphins to a win and the last two games have been against Defensive units that are not up to the level of what he will be facing in Week 8.

Having two Offensive Co-Ordinaters working together has not really been a good idea, but Miami will persist with that. It has meant the Offensive plans have not been working as they should and I am not sure they match up that well with the Buffalo Bills Defensive unit.

In recent games it has been possible to run the ball a little more effectively against the Bills, but some of that is down to the level of opponent they have been facing. The Kansas City Chiefs are a team that most will look to load the Secondary and that leaves them light when it comes to defending the run, while the last game for the Bills was against the powerhouse Derrick Henry a couple of weeks ago.

Miami simply are not up to those levels and I am not sure the Bills will respect this passing game- that should mean forcing the Dolphins into third and long spots and trying to rattle Tua Tagovailoa as they did in the Week 2 game when they knocked the Quarter Back out and left him on the sidelines for a few weeks.

The Quarter Back may have DeVante Parker back this week, but it is hard to believe the Dolphins are going to have consistent success throwing the ball against this tough Buffalo Secondary. I expect Miami will be able to score this week, unlike Week 2, but it may not be enough to get within this spread, even at the number it is sitting at.

Injuries have really hurt the Miami Dolphins on both sides of the ball, but being without both starting Defensive Backs has been a huge blow for them. It allowed Trevor Lawrence and Matt Ryan to have strong performances against them over the last couple of weeks and now the Miami Dolphins have to deal with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Offensive unit looking to bounce back from a loss.

They have had the Bye to sort out some issues, but Dawson Knox will be missing. The Bills will need Knox back to have a deep run in the PlayOffs, but in this game there is enough talent for Josh Allen to hit and keep the ball moving.

The Bills should be able to keep the team in front of the chains with their ability to hit some big plays on the ground and the Quarter Back is able to help in that regard. However, I expect Josh Allen to have a really big day throwing the ball against a Secondary that has allowed too many big plays in recent games. Josh Allen is looking like he is getting back to the level he produced in 2020, and I do think he will be able to hurt the Dolphins like he has since being Drafted by Buffalo.

Miami are not putting up the pass rush pressure to give Josh Allen something to think about and I think Buffalo are going to find a way to blow past this Divisional rival again.

The Bills have won six in a row against Miami and four of those wins have come by 17+ points. The last two wins have been by 30+ points and I think the Bills can cover what is a huge number on paper in a Divisional game.

Buffalo are now 7-2 against the spread in their last nine at home against Miami and they are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six out of a Bye Week. The Bills are also 9-3 against the spread in the last twelve as the home favourite and I do like their chances of coming through with a big win in Week 8 to get back on track.

I love how competitive Brian Flores has tended to make Miami and their record against the spread as an underdog has to be respected under the Head Coach. However, Miami look like they are not as focused this season and I think it could see Buffalo put up a very big win.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: There is a lot of respect from the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) and their Coaching staff for the job that Pete Carroll has done on the other American coast. Urban Meyer and his team will be looking to back up the win they earned in London two weeks ago when they travel to the Seattle Seahawks (2-5) who have lost three games in a row.

They have been competitive against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints, but the Seahawks have come up short without Quarter Back Russell Wilson. Injury is keeping Wilson on the sidelines, but he is hoping to return after the upcoming Bye Week and the Seahawks need to find a way to win this game to at least give themselves a chance to surge back towards the Wild Card spots when Wilson returns.

Both the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals are dominating the NFC West and it is unlikely that the Seahawks will catch either of those teams barring a huge slump in form. However, the added places in the post-season means there is some room for Seattle to fight back and they will need Geno Smith to produce more than he has in the last couple of weeks.

There is an opportunity for Smith to do that and that is largely down to the fact that he is facing a much weaker Defensive unit than the one has seen in his last two starts. Geno Smith does have some talented Receivers that can see him expose a Jacksonville Secondary which have been struggling to stop the pass all season, while the Jaguars Defensive Line have had some issues stopping the run too.

It is hard to trust Geno Smith considering what we have seen from him over the last couple of games, but the Quarter Back may get a little more time in the pocket than he has in those previous starts. The Seattle Offensive Line have really not been able to protect Geno Smith, but Jacksonville are not known for the effectiveness of the pass rush and it should mean Seattle are able to have better Offensive success than they have shown without Russell Wilson.

While I am expecting Seattle to have a stronger Offensive showing, there are still concerns with the way they are performing Defensively and Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are coming in off a Bye and with a win under their belt. Trevor Lawrence has shown enough to believe he can help the Jaguars turn things around in the years ahead, but this team is a work in progress and their development is happening before our eyes.

James Robinson has really taken over at the Running Back position and he has been hugely important to the successes the Jaguars have been having on this side of the ball. In the last month we have seen Seattle having more success at stopping the run, but the Jaguars have been able to open holes for some huge runs from Robinson and keeping the team in third and manageable spots is the key for the road underdog.

It will mean the Jaguars can give Trevor Lawrence a bit more time and an open game-plan to attack a Seattle Secondary which has been having issues throughout the season. The Quarter Back should have enough time to go through his progressions and I think Trevor Lawrence can have a strong enough showing to keep the Jaguars in the game, especially if he can limit the mistakes like he has been.

With the hook on the spread, I think the Jaguars have enough familiarity with the Seattle Seahawks to keep this one close. The Coaching staff and a number of players know the system that Pete Carroll and the Seahawks like to run and with a Bye Week I expect the Jaguars to be well-prepared even if I don't think Urban Meyer is the best Head Coach.

The Seahawks are just 1-4 against the spread in the last five games as the favourite, while Jacksonville are 4-1 against the spread in the last five games as the road underdog. Having more than a Field Goal worth of points with the road team looks enough to keep this one close and I think they can be backed here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints (4-2) have dominated the NFC South in recent years and they have won the last four Divisional crowns. However, it is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1) who are leading the way this season and they also won the last game between these rivals when beating the Saints in the PlayOffs in 2020 and ending Drew Brees' career.

That means there is a double revenge game here- the Saints will be looking to make up for their season ending loss to the Buccaneers, while their Quarter Back, Jameis Winston was jettisoned by the Buccaneers when they had the opportunity to sign Tom Brady.

After a narrow win on Monday Night Football, the New Orleans Saints have two in a row on the road and now will be returning home for the first time since their loss to the New York Giants. Unsurprisingly the Saints are a home underdog against a Tampa Bay team who blew out the Chicago Bears in Week 7 and will be fully focused before heading into their Bye Week.

Even at 6-1, Tampa Bay are looking to show improvement and Bruce Arians has highlighted the fact that the team have been considerably stronger at home than they have been on the road. That has been the case in all facets of the Buccaneers game, but Tom Brady and company have shown they can win in the SuperDome and the motivation to take control of the entire Division with a win should keep them focused.

We all know about Tom Brady and the passing threat that the Buccaneers pose, but they have been getting the run game cranked up and finding the balance is key to their performance on this side of the ball. The New Orleans Saints Defensive Line have shown a real appetite to stop the run, but there has been a couple of cracks in recent games which can be exploited by Tampa Bay as they look to open up the field.

Ultimately it is going to come down to Tom Brady and the strong Receiving corps he has at his disposal, one that will be bolstered by the likelihood of a returning Rob Gronkowski this week. The Tampa Bay Offensive Line have been very effective at giving Tom Brady time in the pocket and he will be throwing into a Saints Secondary which have allowed some big plays through the air.

It should mean the Buccaneers can move the ball with considerable success throughout this game and I think it will put some pressure on the New Orleans Saints who have been inconsistent Offensively.

I can never be sure what we are going to see out of Jameis Winston- he is a Quarter Back that can be very, very good at his best, but he never seems to be far away from a multiple Interception outing that can sink his team before they have a chance. In recent games the Saints Offensive game-plan does not look like it matches up that well with the Tampa Bay Defensive unit and I do believe it will make it difficult for the Saints to keep up with the Buccaneers if the road team are even close to their best.

It has been possible to run the ball against the Tampa Bay Defensive Line, but they are looking healthier this week and New Orleans have not been successful at getting Alvin Kamara going as they would like. A decision has been made to bring back Mark Ingram to help out and make sure the team are in third and manageable spots to aid Winston at Quarter Back, but throwing the ball without Michael Thomas has been a challenge for the Saints.

With an improving Tampa Bay Secondary capable of making some plays even with injuries hurting them, I do think the Buccaneers can find a way to win and cover a big mark on the road.

Tampa Bay were 10 point winners in the NFL PlayOffs when these teams last met here and the road team has improved to 5-2 against the spread in the last seven between these Divisional rivals.

The Buccaneers have not been a very good road favourite to back, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five Divisional games as they look to exert their dominance over their rivals.

New Orleans have been a very good underdog to back under Sean Payton and they are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine when given points at home. However, the Saints are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games against a team with a winning record and I think Tampa Bay can prove themselves as the team to beat in the Division with a very good road win in a tough Stadium.

MY PICKS: Arizona Cardinals - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals - 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)

Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)

Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2020- Oleksandr Usyk vs Dereck Chisora (October 31st)

This is going to be anything but a normal Halloween for families in the Western World, but there is a real 'Fright Night' in prospect for Boxing fans.

A 'Monster' is going to head out to the ring in the early hours of the morning in the United Kingdom, but before that we get Dereck Chisora trying to give new Heavyweight Oleksandr Usyk a scare.

The biggest fight of the night may actually be the Gervonta Davis vs Leo Santa Cruz bout scheduled in the United States, but this looks a good night of Boxing and one in which I am planning to do nothing but grab a few beers and enjoy all of the action.

Lee Selby vs George Kambosos Jr

This may be on a PPV show, but the undercard for the Oleksandr Usyk-Dereck Chisora fight is perhaps not the most appealing.

I would love to see the Women start moving into three minute Rounds to add to the excitement, but the Savannah Marshall-Hannah Rankin bout should be a decent one. Ultimately the two minute Rounds feel like they end the action just as things are warming up and effectively these combat spots grow by showcasing power and precision and I am sure the extra twelve minutes in the Championship fights would grow the sport.

It should be a decent if unspectacular undercard, but the main support bout looks a good one.

Both Lee Selby and George Kambosos Jr will be looking to take on the new king Teofimo Lopez as the winner will move into a mandatory spot to take on the American next year. I am not sure the winner will ever get that shot against Lopez, but what I do know is that they will be on the brink of a World Title shot and that is going to be a huge motivation for both.

Lee Selby has been there and done that before at a lower weight level, but George Kambosos Jr as made it clear he is desperate to reach that level. The unbeaten Australian is quite tough and rough and I do think that is going to pose problems for Selby who is the superior Boxer.

A couple of years ago I do think Lee Selby would have won this fight and fairly comfortably on the scorecards, but at 33 years old you do have to wonder how much is left in the tank. Ricky Burns pushed Selby all the way when those two veterans met a little over twelve months ago and I do wonder if the Welshman has the same kind of resolve left in him these days.

He was looking a little fatigued and allowed Burns to come on strong in that fight, but George Kambosos Jr is younger and fresher and I don't think the Aussie is going to lose heart even if he is outclassed in the early Rounds. Eventually he will force Selby to stand down and fight and that is where Kambosos Jr can begin to break down a fighter that may have seen his best days.

I am not going to read too much into the sparring stories which seem to be giving George Kambosos Jr a little more belief in his ability to 'retire' Lee Selby. However I do think his all action style is one that may be too much for Selby at this stage of his career and I am not sure he has the punching power to keep Kambosos Jr off and make him feel like he can't take chances to land his own hits.

This is clearly a step up from his previous opponents, but George Kambosos Jr looks ready to make the next step here. Lee Selby will be tested and I think his resolve is going to be pushed as he struggles to keep Kambosos Jr off him and it may see some late punches force a stoppage.

The most likely scenario is that we hear the final bell, but I do think there is enough here to look at the possibility of George Kambosos Jr finding the stoppage as he breaks Lee Selby down through the second half of the fight. The Australian has shown his punching power and ability to grind down opponents is still live very late and I do think Selby might be on his way out rather than having realistic ambitions of winning another World Title.

I could be wrong, but a small interest on the late stoppage is the call.

Oleksandr Usyk vs Dereck Chisora

This fight is going to tell us everything we have wanted to know about Oleksandr Usyk ever since he collected all of the Cruiserweight World Titles and then decided he would move up to Heavyweight to try and become a World Champion in the glamour Division of Boxing.

It has been just under two years since Usyk fought on these shores and stopped Tony Bellew in his final bout at Cruiserweight, but injuries and the global pandemic crisis have meant he has only been in the ring once since then. That came in a comfortable win over Chazz Witherspoon twelve months ago in his Heavyweight debut, but most expect this to be a much tougher test for the Ukrainian.

Dereck Chisora has once again rebuilt his career and he claims he is in the form of his life having won three in a row since his stoppage defeat to rival Dillian Whyte. Even in that fight Chisora was ahead on the cards when caught with a peach of a punch in the Eleventh Round and this is a fighter who will muscle through the opposition fists to land his own.

He has been stopped three times before, but Chisora has been hit with a monster punch in two of those and the question for Oleksandr Usyk is does he have the punching power to at least give the biggest men something to think about. The Ukrainian is taller and has a longer reach and there is no doubting his skills in the ring, but his compatriot and friend Vasyl Lomachenko was reminded of what happens when you bite off too much and move up to a weight where a good/great bigger man is too much to overcome.

There has been one or two moments when Oleksandr Usyk has been rocked by a massive punch at Cruiserweight, and that may be a concern, but I also don't believe Chisora is this monster puncher that his team may think he is. Every Heavyweight hits very big, but I am not sure Usyk is going to be where Chisora thinks and I feel this is going to be a frustrating evening for the home fighter who will really miss the presence of fans to push him forward.

You can't get in the water and not get wet so I don't think Usyk is not going to be hit, but I think his skills will wear on Chisora and I also think he hits hard enough. My feeling is that he is going to step on the gas after getting through the early Rounds and he is looking to make a statement here by stopping a fighter that only Tyson Fury, David Haye and Whyte have managed to do in the past.

It is the wear that is likely going to do for Chisora who may begin to ship enough punishment for either the referee or the corner to call this off. Without the adrenaline from the fans I do think this fight is going to begin to feel very hard for Chisora once we get into the second half and that is where the superior skills and enough pop out of the Usyk gloves will begin to take their toll.

This has the feeling of a last chance saloon for Chisora if he wants to fight for a World Title again and that may see him push through the moments to try and land the big shot. Even if he is well down on the cards Dereck Chisora will have to show mental strength to keep rising from the stool and take the punishment to try and dish his own, but eventually I expect either the referee or the corner to take pity on their man and pull him out when in a losing battle.

There is a steely determination in the Oleksandr Usyk eyes which makes me believe he is not going to want to coast down the stretch and I think he is going to land the combinations to force a halt to this one somewhere around the Tenth Round.

Naoya Inoue vs Jason Moloney

The Halloween movie usually ends with the main, big, bad monster being vanquished, but I think it would be a massive upset if the 'Monster' Naoya Inoue is beaten on the spookiest night.

Funny things could happen and the injuries suffered in the win over Nonito Donaire coupled with the Covid-19 crisis means it has been a long time since Inoue last entered the ring. Not many Boxers have been used to this kind of layoff between fights, but Inoue might benefit from being able to get fully healthy and he will continue on his path to superstardom in his second fight in the United States in his career.

Having won the World Boxing Super Series Bantamweight tournament with some very impressive performances, Naoya Inoue looks to have been handed a good chance to impress those watching on this Saturday.

That is not taking anything away from Jason Moloney- the tough Australian suffered his sole career loss in the same Bantamweight tournament to Emmanuel Rodriguez, although Moloney was very unfortunate to be beaten having rallied in the second half of the fight. 

Jason Moloney has won four in a row since that defeat and he was also in action in June so has to try and use that to his advantage. Pressing Inoue and hoping to find some ring rust is a risky strategy with the power that the Japanese fighter has in both hands and I do think it is going to be very difficult for Moloney to hold him at bay.

Much depends on the toughness of Jason Moloney, which is not of doubt, but also how quickly Naoya Inoue finds his range. Some will be looking for a blow out win for the pound for pound star, but I think Moloney does enough to at least keep Inoue at bay through the first half of the fight before the accumulation of big hits begin to wear him down and break him down.

It won't be a massive surprise to see Moloney on the floor relatively early, and Inoue is a top finisher, but I am going for the rugged Australian to get through a few Rounds before the referee is eventually forced to call time on the bout.

Monsters may not win in the movies, but on this Halloween night I believe a Monster will showcase his talent to the watching public with a big time performance and win.

Gervonta Davis vs Leo Santa Cruz

All credit to Channel Five in the United Kingdom for picking up the Showtime card from the United States as Gervonta Davis gets set to take on Leo Santa Cruz in a PPV outing in Texas.

Fans over here will know Leo Santa Cruz for two battles with Carl Frampton, but coming up in weight and at 32 years old is a tough spot for him. He is going up against a big puncher and one who has shown he carries power late into fights.

Match making is an important part of the Boxing business and this does feel like a good match up for Tank Davis who is looking to become the next big PPV star in the United States. He is exciting to watch, although there is always a fear of waiting for the next Floyd Mayweather when he begins to take the Adrian Broner approach to life.

So far Gervonta Davis has not been punished in the ring and I do think Santa Cruz has been picked for his name value but also little real threat to the favourite. The Boxing skills can't be ignored, but there have been signs that Leo Santa Cruz is not the fighter he once was and coming up in weight to take on a heavy hitter is not ideal.

The Mexican has spoken about his heart and making this a war, but I would be surprised if Santa Cruz decides to stand and trade with Davis. He has won five in a row which maintains his value, but Santa Cruz doesn't really have the power to trouble Gervonta Davis and I think that just sees the American begin to walk through fire to land his heavy shots.

I do think Leo Santa Cruz will want to show some resilience and he may be able to outwork Davis early, but eventually the pressure will tell and the home fighter can turn the screw. I think some late punishment is going to force someone to take Santa Cruz out of the fight, even if he won't want to stop it himself.

Leo Santa Cruz has not been down often in his career, but he has not really faced someone who possesses the power Gervonta Davis has either. The latter will be the bigger man on Saturday night and he should be able to power through in the second half of the fight and break down Leo Santa Cruz for a good looking win.

MY PICKS: George Kambosos Jr to Win Between 7-12 @ 10.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Oleksandr Usyk to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.30 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Naoya Inoue to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.75 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Gervonta Davis to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

College Football Week 9 Picks 2020 (October 30-31)

Week 9 of the College Football 2020 season has sneaked up on me and after a positive Week 8 to bounce back from the horrific Week 7 means there is some momentum behind the Picks.

Purdue Boilermakers @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: The Big Ten Conference finally got underway in the 2020 season in Week 8, but that does mean there is some uncertainty about the teams taking part and how prepared they are for the coming year. You can read too much into one result but the Purdue Boilermakers have to be respected for the manner of their win over the Iowa Hawkeyes, although I would not be overly concerned about the Illinois Fighting Illini's loss to the Wisconsin Badgers.

That was against a motivated Divisional rival who had been beaten by the Fighting Illini in 2019 and I do expect a reaction from Illinois who have a number of experienced players back from last season.

Lovie Smith was saved by a number of his players in 2019 and he would likely have not been the Head Coach in 2020 if Illinois had not finished with a 6-6 record in the regular season. Bowl Games preparation would have helped and I do think the Fighting Illini will be able to show a lot more, especially in the home opener.

There will have been a week of adjustments that Illinois would have to get through but I think the Offensive Line will show better against the Boilermakers Defensive Line than they were able to do against Wisconsin. However, the Fighting Illini were able to run the ball with some effectiveness and it was only because the game got out of hand that Illinois had to change tact, but that is not expected to be the case in Week 9.

Last week the Boilermakers gave up almost 200 yards on the ground and I do think Illinois can have successes in this one which will give their Defensive unit a chance to rest unlike in their last game. Penalties have to be avoided to make sure Illinois stay in front of the chains, especially as Illinois did not have almost any success throwing the ball.

Purdue have to be well aware of what Illinois are going to try and do and they also have revenge on their mind having been upset as big home favourites against this opponent last season. Head Coach Jeff Brohm missed the win over the Iowa Hawkeyes in Week 8, but he will be back patrolling the sidelines on Saturday as he looks to inspire his team to a 2-0 start.

Rondale Moore is less likely to be available despite his decision to return to the Football team as soon as it was announced that a Big Ten season would be played. You have to credit Moore for reversing his decision, but he has been injured and instead the focus for the Illinois Secondary may be on David Bell who was the main Purdue Receiving threat in Week 8 when taking it to the Hawkeyes.

It may fall on the passing game to move the chains for the Boilermakers if Illinois' Defensive Line are as stout against the run as they were against Wisconsin. They may have given up 182 yards on the ground in that loss, but those came on 54 carries for the Badgers and Purdue did struggle to push the ball on the ground last week which makes it feel like a game in which they passing game is going to be key.

As good as the Fighting Illini Defensive Line played, the Secondary allowed some big plays to an inexperienced Quarter Back Wisconsin sent out to the field on the opening weekend of Big Ten Football. They can get some pressure up front, but it is unlikely that Illinois will shut down the pass and that is the reason the Boilermakers are favourites.

Even then this feels like a big number for the road team to cover even if the lack of fans is going to have a serious impact on College Football as it has on many sports around the world. I think the Fighting Illini can run the ball well enough to at least control the clock and I do think they are going to have a big reaction to the poor loss in Week 8 when beaten comprehensively by the Wisconsin Badgers.

The Boilermakers are 3-7-1 against the spread in their last eleven games as the road favourite, but they do have a decent record in recent games against Illinois. However I do like the Fighting Illini here with their 5-2 record against the spread in their last seven as the underdog and I think getting more than 7 points is important in what feels like could be a close game.

Indiana Hoosiers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: Two teams who are coming off upsets in the Big Ten on the opening weekend of the season for the Conference are meeting in Week 9. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have struggled in recent seasons, but gave incoming Head Coach Greg Schiano the perfect start to his second go around with the team.

Schiano did a really good job with Rutgers before moving on and his return along with the road win over the Michigan State Spartans will have given the team a huge boost.

Now they are a home underdog against the Indiana Hoosiers who upset the Penn State Nittany Lions in Week 8 with an Overtime win by a single point. The Hoosiers finished fourth in the Big Ten East last season but they did win eight games in the season and Tom Allen is looking for more this time around having won that game with Penn State.

Much is going to depend on how the Hoosiers have handled the emotion of beating the Nittany Lions and they are going to have to be at their best if Rutgers Defense plays anywhere near the level of last week. Of course the Michigan State Offense is not as strong as the one Indiana will be trotting out to the field and the experience the Hoosiers have on the Offensive side of the ball has to be respected.

Indiana may have struggled against a much vaunted Penn State Defensive unit, but Michael Penix Jr and the other players returning from last season should have more success in this one. However it may not be easy to run the ball against the Rutgers Defensive Line and that will mean it is up to Penix Jr at Quarter Back to make the plays and keep the chains moving.

He has to be aware of the kind of turnovers Rutgers were able to create last week though and it is important for Michael Penix Jr to play as clean a game as is possible. If he does that Indiana should have success in this one, although the Quarter Back has to be very aware of the kind of pressure the Scarlet Knights were able to generate up front in their first game.

Turnovers really helped the Rutgers Offense in Week 8 of the season and I think this is a much bigger test for them even though they should have a little bit of success running the ball against the Indiana Defensive Line. Noah Vedral could be a dual-threat from the Quarter Back position and he will need to be as wary as Michael Penix Jr when throwing the ball against an Indiana team that was very good at turning the ball over in their opening game.

He will at least give Rutgers the chance to establish the run and at least help his team stay competitive in this one which makes the points being given to the underdog look appealing.

This is not a great spot for Indiana having upset Penn State and with Michigan, Michigan State and then Ohio State coming up. There is every chance they could overlook the Scarlet Knights who have long been the whipping boys of the Big Ten and the emotion of the upset win over the Nittany Lions could have a detrimental impact on the favourites here.

Indiana are 0-8 against the spread in their last eight as the road favourite and you do have to wonder if they can cope with this spot. The Scarlet Knights will be motivated to make up for the 35-0 embarrassing defeat to this Conference rival last season, while they have been more competitive in their last two home losses to Indiana which have been decided by 7 and 6 points respectively.

Taking the points here looks to be the right play.

LSU Tigers @ Auburn Tigers Pick: Win this game and you may have an outside chance of chasing down the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC West, but the two Tigers from the Division know another loss will be difficult to chalk off. While Ed Orgeron has some real credit in the bank with LSU having guided them to a National Championship earlier in the year, Gus Malzahn could be under pressure with the Auburn Tigers at the end of what has been a poor season to date.

Running the table is all Malzahn will be looking to do with the Auburn Tigers and they did manage to beat Mississippi Rebels in Week 8 to move to 3-2 in the Conference. A couple of plays here and there could easily have given this set of Tigers a better record, but also a much worse one and there is pressure on the entire team.

They are facing a LSU Tigers team who had an unexpected two week break due to Covid-19 and one that came out of their Bye Week with a victory over the South Carolina Gamecocks. It was an impressive win and perhaps even more so when you think LSU were missing Quarter Back Myles Brennan and had to give inexperienced TJ Finley the chance to start.

The youngster took advantage of his opportunity having thrown for 265 passing yards with two Touchdown passes and a single Interception. That saw Ed Orgeron praising the performance of TJ Finley, although the Head Coach admitted that Brennan remains the starter when he is healthy.

That does not look like happening this week for Myles Brennan and it may be more difficult for TJ Finley against the Auburn Secondary which has played with a bit more confidence of late. They have held their last three teams on average to a little over 200 passing yards and that number has been aided by a strong performance from the Defensive Line which has at least found a way to force teams to grind things out on the ground.

A key for Auburn is going to be to try and rattle TJ Finley into mistakes, although the young Quarter Back should be well protected by his Offensive Line. That will keep the pocket clean enough to make plays and I do think LSU will have some success having scored over 50 points in their win over South Carolina in Week 8.

Quarter Back questions are not only something that the LSU Tigers have to answer as Auburn continue to be asked about Bo Nix and whether there needs to be a change made at the position. Some key plays at big moments from Nix eased the pressure after he led Auburn to a late win over the Mississippi Rebels, but this is a different level of test this week and Bo Nix has been inconsistent at best.

A couple of key players on the Offensive Line may also be missing for Auburn, but even then it is essential for the Tigers to stay in front of the chains. They have been running the ball very well this season through Tank Bigsby and it is important for Gus Malzahn to ensure his team feed the Running Back as much as possible.

There has been room to run on the LSU Defensive Line and I think that is important for Auburn here to control the clock and find some balance Offensively which will also make things a little more comfortable for Bo Nix. The LSU pass rush would be slowed down if Auburn are running the ball efficiently and it will also mean Bo Nix has time to make throws against a LSU Secondary which is not playing as well as they would have liked.

The spread has moved down from the original line and it makes me believe the sharps are on the same side as the public here- namely they are backing the home underdog Tigers to cover.

I like Auburn too as I believe they will have the balance Offensively which will put pressure on a young LSU Quarter Back in his first big road start. No fans will help TJ Finley, but the Auburn Tigers are a team who have been underachieving and should be able to keep him cold by running the ball at this LSU Defensive Line.

LSU have won the last three in this Conference rivalry, but Auburn are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen home games. The road team do have some very strong trends to point at, but those have come during the Joe Burrow era and I think the drop off from the 2019 National Champions will give Auburn the edge in this big SEC game between the two teams who are most likely to chase in Alabama in the Division.

I'll take the points as they are.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: The news that Trevor Lawrence has tested positive for Covid-19 may just have put a different slant on the ACC Conference in Week 9. While the Clemson Tigers are not likely to be beaten by the Boston College Eagles, the unbeaten Notre Dame Fighting Irish are next up on deck and it could be the key game of the season in this Conference.

The Covid-19 pandemic has meant College Football has had to have a different look than normal and that also meant the Notre Dame Fighting Irish were invited to participate in the ACC. They have taken advantage of that as they have begun the season with a 5-0 record and they are 4-0 in Conference play which means Notre Dame are right alongside Clemson at the top of the standings.

Playing in the ACC and having that game with Clemson on deck is a huge opportunity for the Fighting Irish to announce their intentions to play in the College Football PlayOff later this year. They can't afford to overlook the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets who are coming in off back to back blow out losses and have a 2-3 record in the ACC this season.

Geoff Collins does not want his Georgia Tech team to be criticised despite the fact their four defeats in 2020 have come by an average of 33 points per game. Of course that number is heavily influenced by the embarrassing 67 point loss to the Clemson Tigers, but there has to be a slight worry for Yellow Jackets fans that they are facing a team who will be keen to put some style points on the board.

This isn't the Yellow Jackets of old who were heavily reliant on the triple-option Offense and that means Jeff Sims has been able to showcase some of his arm talent as well as his ability to make plays with his legs. The young Quarter Back is going to grow from his experiences of 2020 and while he has played well enough, Sims will also appreciate that he is going to be facing a top Defensive unit in Week 9 which will present a big challenge for him.

The Fighting Irish Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run and that means they are forcing teams to become a little one-dimensional with their play-calling. Sometimes it can mean the Secondary is dealing with worse numbers than their ability, but Notre Dame are also holding their season opponents to under 180 passing yards per game and it is the Defensive unit which has really impressed.

They may not always make the headlines the same was as the Offense will, but Notre Dame also have a significant pass rush that is managing to get home and I do think they can restrict this Georgia Tech team.

Ian Book will then be looking to pick up from where he left off last week in the blow out defeat of the Pittsburgh Panthers. That is arguably the best performance of the season from a Quarter Back who has now won twenty-five of his twenty-eight starts as Notre Dame signal caller.

The Quarter Back is only averaging a little over 200 passing yards per game for the season, but he threw for over 300 yards last week in the win over the Panthers. Ian Book will be looking for another statement making performance as he boosts his own personal profile and also helps the Fighting Irish improve their current Number 4 Ranking and this looks like the kind of game in which he can thrive.

Georgia Tech have simply not been able to stop teams throwing on them and the Secondary have also not been able to turn the ball over as they would have liked. It should mean Ian Book is able to pick up from where he left off in Week 8, although one of the reasons that he does not have the eye-catching numbers is that the Notre Dame Offensive Line have been dominant in setting up the run.

All season Notre Dame have been able to rip off some big gains on the ground which means Ian Book is not being asked to do too much himself and I do think the Fighting Irish can have real success in this one. The Yellow Jackets Defensive Line have allowed over 225 yards per game on the ground on average across their last three games and I expect the road team to be able to do whatever they like Offensively.

Notre Dame have covered in their last four games as the road favourite, although I can't ignore the fact that this is a big number. However Georgia Tech are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games as the home underdog and I think the Fighting Irish will be ready to make a statement here before their huge Week 10 game against the Clemson Tigers which is all but a game that will decide the top spot in the ACC and likely an unbeaten season for one of those teams.

I like the Fighting Irish to enter Week 10 with another win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Illinois Fighting Illini + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Auburn Tigers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 20.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

UCF Knights - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (October 30-November 2)

The season has been plenty strange already and I think it is telling that we have heard things like Kylian Mbappe talking about being fatigued and feeling like this is the end of the season rather than the beginning.

Injuries are piling up through the top European Leagues and managers are in an unenviable position of having to find results at the same time as maintaining their duty of care to their players by making sure they are well rested.

It hasn't just made things difficult for the real managers, but Fantasy Football managers have to also be feeling the pain. That is the case for my time and I am having my worst start to the Official FPL season as I have had in many a year with nothing seemingly going right and the strange, Twilight Zone entering results meaning some unfamiliar or unexpected names lead the way in terms of the points being earned.

I'll moan more about that below.

Wolves v Crystal Palace Pick: Inconsistent results have been a feature of the early Premier League season and that is the case for both Wolves and Crystal Palace. One week they can look pretty good, but on another they can play terribly and that makes it hard to get a good read on either side.

The only element that has been clear for Wolves is that they are struggling to create a lot of chances and that has resulted in problems scoring goals. Raul Jimenez continues to lead the line effectively, but they have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last 6 in all competitions since stunning Sheffield United with two early goals on the opening weekend of the season.

Back to back 1-0 wins would have been appreciated, but last week Wolves were punished for the lack of goals when conceding in the last few minutes in their 1-1 home draw with Newcastle United. At least Wolves can point to the fact they largely contained their visitors before Rui Patricio's error in setting up his wall for the free kick that was converted by Jacob Murphy.

It is difficult to know which Crystal Palace will turn up on Friday too- will it be the one that has been very effective going forward in their wins at Manchester United and Fulham or the one dominated at home by Brighton. Roy Hodgson's team have been better away from home where the onus is on their hosts to get forward which leaves space for a pacy attack, but Crystal Palace have also been hammered at Chelsea.

Defensive injuries are mounting up which makes it more difficult to trust Crystal Palace who have not had a clean sheet in their last 5 Premier League games and only once in their last 14 in the League. The Eagles have been scoring goals to make up for that, but it won't be easy to break down this Wolves team and games between these clubs have tended to be low-scoring since the latter returned to the top flight.

All four games have ended with fewer than three goals scored and the feeling is that this PPV game on Friday evening may go the same way. An early goal could really change the entire feel of the fixture, but I think both Nuno Espirito Santo and Roy Hodgson are managers who will look to restrict the spaces for the fast, attacking players and that could lead to another tight fixture involving Wolves.

Goals have been more frequent in Crystal Palace games, but I would be surprised if either team is producing a lot of chances in this one. Set pieces could be key, but both clubs are pretty adept at defending them too and I think this will be a game that doesn't feature more than two goals.

Backing at least one to avoid hitting the net looks the more appealing price now the money has come down on the Under 2.5 Goals option with the 1-1 scoreline the biggest danger.

Sheffield United v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League campaign has not started ideally for Manchester City, but they will be pleased that their early setbacks have not been as costly as they tended to be twelve months ago.

This time around none of the teams have shown the kind of consistency Liverpool displayed in the first five months of the 2019/20 season and that means Manchester City are 'only' 5 points behind the League leaders with a game in hand. That is not as big a gap as they may have expected having won 2 of their 5 Premier League games played, but Pep Guardiola will know they can't afford to keep dropping points.

Back to back 1-1 away draws at Leeds United and West Ham United have just raised some doubts about this Manchester City team, but they have shown in their win at Marseille in the Champions League that there is still plenty in the tank. Being without Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus does mean Manchester City lack a focal point, but they are still creating chances and I do think they are playing much better defensively than their recent results may suggest.

In their last 4 games out of the international break Manchester City have been particularly good at the back and I do think Sheffield United are going to have a tough time breaking them down. Set pieces will likely be their biggest threat, but The Blades have been lacking a cutting edge overall which makes it hard to believe they can pick up a positive result here.

Chris Wilder is more pleased with the recent performances from his team, but Sheffield United continue to struggle in the final third. They do play some decent football which creates chances, but lacking a clinical striker is not just an issue which has plagued them this season.

Even last season Sheffield United perhaps did not have the kind of end product they deserved for their play, but they were stronger defensively. That has not been the case in the 2020/21 season so far and Sheffield United have not had a clean sheet in their last 9 Premier League games.

They have scored just once in their last 4 home League games and even that was a Penalty and I do think Manchester City will be too strong for them. I am not sure whether the away side will be capable of blowing away Sheffield United on their own current form, but Manchester City should have enough to secure the points and I will back them to win a game in which fewer than five total goals are produced.

When Manchester City are at their best they capable of hammering any team at any ground, but this is a team who have looked to be a little more defensively sound in recent games. They have not scored more than a single goal in their last 2 away Premier League games, but Manchester City should have at least one more in them here which will likely be enough to secure the three points.

Burnley v Chelsea Pick: The difficulty for those clubs playing in European Football compared with those who are not is clear to see as Chelsea will continue to play every three days while Burnley are going to have had a week to prepare for the fixture.

Even then there are no excuses for the so called 'bigger' clubs who have deeper squads and ultimately have players who are used to being involved in big games all the time.

Chelsea's 0-4 win in Krasnodar was an impressive one for the players as they ended a 3 game run without a victory. Most pleasing for Frank Lampard has to be the third clean sheet in a row and I expect he is going to be preparing his team to be focused from set pieces as they look for a fourth in a row.

They are facing a Burnley team who played well on Monday Night Football in their narrow 0-1 home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. On another day the 1-0 scoreline may have been in favour of Burnley and Sean Dyche has to be encouraged by the level of performance.

Injuries continue to hurt Burnley, but they are not a team who are likely to roll over for Chelsea despite the poor home run against them. Burnley have lost 5 of their last 6 at Turf Moor against Chelsea and they have conceded four goals in each of the last 2 here against them.

It may be a concern that Chelsea managed that number in wins over Crystal Palace and Krasnodar earlier this month, but there is still a lack of consistency in the away side. That is no surprise with the number of new faces in the squad, although Chelsea have looked much more secure defensively ever since Edouard Mendy has taken over from Kepa.

He made some decent saves in Russia on Wednesday and was also a key performer in the goalless draw at Manchester United. It might give Chelsea the slight edge here, and I can't ignore the current struggles Burnley have been having at getting on the scoreboard recently.

The feeling is that one of these teams will end up failing to score and that is more likely to be Burnley than Chelsea. It could be a battle if Burnley replicate the levels they produced against Tottenham Hotspur though and the feeling is that it may be a fixture where one, or both, of the teams fail to find the back of the net.

Liverpool v West Ham United Pick: You can't help but be impressed with the recent performances of West Ham United and David Moyes is rebuilding his reputation following a poor time as manager of Manchester United.

It has been over six years since Moyes has left Old Trafford, but he has not had much consistent success anywhere. His two spells at West Ham United have been the best moments in the time since and the start made to the new season has just reminded people of the successes David Moyes had when managing Everton.

The fixture list could not have been much more awkward for Moyes and The Hammers to open the 2020/21 season, but the character of the squad has produced some huge results. Even in the defeat at the Emirates Stadium West Ham United were the better team and they have followed that with Premier League wins over Leicester City and Wolves and come from 3-0 down to earn a draw with Tottenham Hotspur before another draw against Manchester City.

Those are some top results and they will head up the M1/M6 with some confidence despite the poor recent outcomes from visits to Anfield. This time West Ham United have largely a fully fit squad to choose from and they are taking on a Liverpool team that has problems in picking a backline for this game through injury.

With the goals West Ham United are scoring they will give it a go here, although they will obviously be given a setback if Michail Antonio is not able to take part. Even then you have to believe West Ham United have to try and challenge a Liverpool backline which is decimated at the heart of the team.

That will be an issue for the home team to deal with, but Liverpool's front three are fresh and they are a team that create chances at Anfield. As positive as the eventual results have been, you can't just throwaway the 3-0 deficit West Ham United found themselves in at Tottenham Hotspur earlier this month before the late recovery.

Manchester City also had some decent chances against them and in Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah Liverpool do have players who won't be as wasteful in front of goal. Liverpool have also scored plenty of goals when hosting West Ham United in recent times and I do think the home team will look to protect the makeshift centre half pairing by getting on the front foot and pushing West Ham United backwards.

I would not be surprised if The Hammers played their part in this fixture, but Liverpool should be too good and I think that will lead to an important victory for them ahead of a big week. A late goal may be needed, but I expect Liverpool to find a way to break down West Ham United and win this by a comfortable looking margin when all is said and done.

Aston Villa v Southampton Pick: There won't have been many who would have suggested this would be a fixture between two of the current top seven in the Premier League and especially not at this stage of the season.

Both Aston Villa and Southampton have to be very pleased with the starts made to the campaign and this may be a special season if the rest of the Division continue to perform as inconsistently week to week as they have been.

The two clubs are both within touching distance of the leaders Everton and there should be a confidence about them.

Some of that may have been knocked from Aston Villa who were beaten 0-3 by Leeds United last time out and now they have to face a Southampton team who are unbeaten in 4 games. The Saints have won 3 of those including the victory over then unbeaten Everton last Sunday and they have looked pretty good defensively ever since the home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur.

Those stronger performances have resulted in 3 clean sheets from their last 4 Premier League games and I do think Southampton won't be worried about this fixture. While they will recognise the quality Aston Villa have in the final third, Ralph Hasenhuttl has to believe his own attacking players can have success at Villa Park in what could be a decent watch on Sunday.

Southampton may have a slight mental edge having beaten Aston Villa twice last season, although both wins came before the break in play in March. Since then Aston Villa have been much better and you have to say the defeat to Leeds United is more of an exception than the normal level since June.

It looks like a really good game on paper and the potential to be one, but both clubs are actually playing pretty well defensively. It may mean there isn't much in this one and I do have to give Southampton a slight advantage as the underdog in what could be a close game.

I can't rule out the draw, but I do think Southampton have perhaps been playing slightly better than Aston Villa of late. The home team did hammer Liverpool here which has to be respected, but they perhaps didn't deserve to beat Sheffield United and I think that win over Liverpool makes them a touch over-rated.

Perhaps I will be wrong, but Southampton should be good enough to avoid defeat on their current levels of performance.

Newcastle United v Everton Pick: While Newcastle United earned what was largely an undeserved point, Everton were losing their unbeaten start to the Premier League season and both managers have to be looking for an improvement in fortunes.

Neither club has won either Premier League coming out of the international break and that does put a bit of pressure on them with two weeks to go until the November break in play.

In saying that, I do think both Newcastle United and Everton will be happy with the way things have been going and it is all about making the small adjustments to improve results. Out of the two teams the feeling is that Everton are still performing at a better level than Newcastle United despite the downturn in results.

The absence of Richarlison is a blow to the line up and losing both starting full backs for this game does mean the squad is being stretched. That has to be a concern for Everton fans as they look to maintain their spot at the top of the Premier League, but they will believe there is still enough quality to hurt a Newcastle United team who have not been at their best defensively in the last couple of weeks.

Newcastle United should have some successes of their own with the pace they have in forward areas through Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson, but I think the edge has to be with the visitors. Everton have a very good record in recent visits to St James' Park too and there might still be enough quality in the team even without Lucas Digne, Seamus Coleman and Richarlison to edge to the points here.

The first goal is absolutely huge in this one, but if Everton can get it I do think they can go on and secure the three points in a big game for the squad.

Manchester United v Arsenal Pick: 

Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton Pick: 

Fulham v West Brom Pick: 

Leeds United v Leicester City Pick: 

MY PICKS: Wolves-Crystal Palace Both Teams to Score NO

Manchester City to Win & Under 4.5 Goals

Burnley-Chelsea Both Teams to Score NO

Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Southampton + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Manchester United - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Tottenham Hotspur - 0.75 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 7

I honestly can't quite get to grips with the Official FPL game this season.

If things could go wrong they probably have for my team and I can't seem to get out of the way of those players who lose value which makes it very difficult to turn things around too. It would help if those I have selected could convert some of their XG and XA marks into actual points and overall I am sure you can sense my feelings of frustration.

It does irritate me that others are seemingly benefiting from players who have picked up points almost undeservedly, but at this stage I just feel it is a long season and I am hoping things begin to settle in what has been a strange Premier League season to this point.

I am not entirely convinced they will which means having to make adjustments in the thinking, and that may also mean having to take more Hits than I am used to.

Press Conferences are going to be important for the next two months to try and get a feeling of where players are being rested and it does mean the squad in general has to be stronger than I have sometimes had in the past.

I was hoping to have a transfer roll over into GW8, but I think there is a feeling that either Sergio Reguilon or Ben Chilwell could be rested. That would mean Adam Webster coming in, but I think I can upgrade the defence this week and I am going to want to roll over the transfer through the international break.

For the main part I am happy with the squad and I am not going to rush out and make changes to my team knowing I deserve more points than I have earned to this point. At some stage the luck has to change and I have already made the mistake of dropping Timo Werner before he returned in the kind of manner I would have wanted.

Marcus Rashford is another who has thrived just after I have taken him out of the squad and I want to avoid those rash decisions this week.

Some players are in the last chance saloon- I can't carry Riyad Mahrez for his value and lack of returns, but he has a decent looking fixture this Saturday assuming he is given the start. I do have an idea of some teams and players I would like to target in the weeks ahead, but for now I am looking for this squad to find a way to produce the returns.

I will post my team on Twitter at the deadline on Friday evening.