NFL Week 8 Picks 2022 (October 27-31)

After a brutal couple of weeks, at least Week 7 begun the turn in fortunes that I hope will carry me through the next few weeks of the regular season.

Bad picks mixed with bad luck is not the combination you want to see, but a bit of fortune helped the Week 7 Picks return with a positive number.

We now move into Week 8 with more teams coming in and going on Bye Weeks, but the Divisions will begin to take serious shape in the lead up to Thanksgiving Day.

Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: An upset on Monday Night Football has pushed the Chicago Bears (3-4) back into contention in the open NFC North, but they are once again big dogs in Week 8 of the 2022 season as they travel for a second week in a row.

That is immediately a tough situation for any team to deal with and the Chicago Bears are going to be tested by the Dallas Cowboys (5-2) who are still in third place in the NFC East despite being one of eight teams that have won five games this season. Last weekend some late plays helped the Cowboys beat the Detroit Lions with a returning Dak Prescott at Quarter Back.

He should be better with another week of reps under his belt, but the Cowboys could be without Ezekiel Elliot and that would mean using Tony Pollard as a three down Running Back. There have been some improvements in the performance level of the Chicago Defensive Line in recent games, but I would still think the Dallas Offensive Line can open up some big holes for Pollard, who has the speed to hit any holes very quickly and run away from the line of scrimmage.

Dak Prescott is expected to give the Cowboys passing Offense a real boost and I do think he will be better in Week 8 than he was in Week 7.

There are some quality Receivers around him and Prescott should be well protected by his Dallas Offensive Line, perhaps even more so now Robert Quinn has been traded away from the Chicago Bears. Good work has been done by the Chicago Secondary in recent games, and that has to be respected, but I do think the Cowboys have enough balance on this side of the ball to put themselves in a position to move the chains.

Ultimately the biggest threat the Dallas Cowboys bring to the field is on the Defensive side of the ball and it was some huge plays from that unit that helped them pull away and crush the Detroit Lions.

Justin Fields did have a solid outing on Monday Night Football as the Bears surprisingly blew out the New England Patriots, but much of the Bears Offense is managed on the ground. They have put up some solid numbers on the ground with Fields capable of running the ball from the Quarter Back position and the Running Backs piling up the yards, but the Dallas Defensive Line have looked pretty strong up front of late and they will be looking to make the Quarter Back beat them with his arm.

It is simply not how the Chicago Bears will want to play this game and you do wonder what they will be able to do if they fall behind a couple of scores. Justin Fields is not really trusted to throw the ball consistently and the Offensive Line have struggled in pass protection, even with a mobile Quarter Back playing behind them.

After winning on Monday Night Football as the underdog, I think it will be tough for Chicago to back that up against a Dallas team who will be able to put a full effort in before heading into their Bye Week.

A couple of turnovers in favour of the Dallas Cowboys could help them pull clear in this one as they did in Week 7 and I do think the home team are capable of covering what is a very big line on paper.

Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions Pick: A returning Tua Tagovailoa at Quarter Back and a winning effort to snap a three game losing run is a positive for the Miami Dolphins (4-3), but they remain third in the AFC East. This may not be a Conference game and neither is the one in Week 9, but the Miami Dolphins will be looking to take some serious momentum into their Bye Week by winning both on the road.

First up is the trip to the Detroit Lions (1-5) who have the fewest wins in the NFC having made some late mistakes in their loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week.

Injuries have really held the Lions back, while this is not a great spot for them hosting a non-Conference opponent before having Divisional rivals the Green Bay Packers come to town. Head Coach Dan Campbell was an interim Head Coach for the Miami Dolphins and so that should bring extra motivation, although he is now on the hot seat in The Motor City and the big question is whether the players are still behind him.

Effort has not really been lacking, but losing key players has haunted Campbell and the Detroit Lions- he should have D'Andre Swift back at Running Back, but both Amon-Ra St Brown and TJ Hockenson are likely to be limited.

The return of D'Andre Swift will give the Lions a boost as they look to establish the run, but that is not going to be easy against this Miami Defensive Line. In recent weeks Miami have done well to contain the likes of Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon so the feeling is that they clamp down up front and at least force Detroit to turn to the arm of Jared Goff from some tough third down positions.

Jared Goff may not be the long-term answer for the Lions at Quarter Back, but he has not played badly in his eighteen months with the team. Unfortunately there is not a deep choice of skill players to throw the ball to and that has not helped Jared Goff when it comes to finding the consistency he would want from Quarter Back.

An improving Miami Secondary has been able to make some big plays to help their team even in the absence of Tua Tagovailoa and I think it could be another tough afternoon for Goff and the Lions Offensive unit. They will be able to have some successes, but the Miami Dolphins can find the plays to just stall one or two drives and give their team every chance of winning this one on the road.

Scoring enough points to keep up with the Dolphins is likely going to be the challenge for Detroit as I am expecting an improved performance from Tua Tagovailoa and his skill players. The Quarter Back played well on Sunday Night Football in Week 7, but Tagovailoa admitted that he needs to find a way to produce Touchdowns rather than settling for Field Goals if they are going to achieve all Miami feel they can.

There haven't been many positives, if any at all, since Tagovailoa went down with an injury, but the Miami Dolphins have found a way to get their running attack moving in the right direction. Raheem Mostert has worked with Mike McDaniel before when both were in San Francisco and he has begun to benefit from the Offensive Line learning what they need to do from their first year Head Coach.

With a positive rushing Offense keeping the team in front of the chains, Tua Tagovailoa and the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle should be able to benefit with passing lanes opening up. A limited Detroit pass rush should mean Tagovailoa has plenty of time to throw to his Wide Receivers down the field and I do think the Dolphins will be better than they were Offensively last Sunday.

The Lions are a very good home to back when it comes to the spread, but I do think they could be distracted by the game with the Green Bay Packers coming up. A superior Miami Offensive balance can help the Dolphins too as they perhaps create a late turnover or two which helps them turn the screw and cover as the road favourite.

Miami are just 2-2 against the spread as the road favourite since the start of the 2021 season, but they look a much better team now and with Tua Tagovailoa back at Quarter Back, they can cover here.

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Over the last few years, the Minnesota Vikings (5-1) have been a team that had tended to lose close games, but that has been the complete opposite in 2022. The Vikings have won four in a row before heading into the Bye Week, but none of those have been by more than a one-score difference and the Minnesota Vikings have opened up a healthy lead at the top of the Division.

They are going to be well rested for this Week 8 game, but the Arizona Cardinals (3-4) will have enjoyed a 'mini-break' of their own having played on Thursday Night Football last time out. A win over the New Orleans Saints would have been a big boost, as would the performance of a returning DeAndre Hopkins.

The connection Hopkins has with Kyler Murray seems to make the Cardinals tick all the more efficiently and Kliff Kingsbury is going to hope both will be on the same page as they look for an important road win. Big games are coming up within the Division, but the Cardinals are looking for some momentum after the early season inconsistencies.

Minnesota have a strong record, but they do have a Secondary which can be attacked and I think Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins could be something we hear often in Minneapolis. Much will depend on the rushing part of the Offensive unit in order to keep the Cardinals in front of the chains and avoid having to allow routes develop down the field behind what has been shaky Offensive Line play.

Establishing the run is not going to be easy, but having a dual-threat at Quarter Back is a positive and one that should help Arizona have a little more success on the ground compared with recent opponents faced by the Vikings.

The Bye Week may actually have come at a good time for the Minnesota Vikings to work out how they struggled to earn much yardage in their last game against the Miami Dolphins. The Offensive unit produced just 234 yards on the day as they struggled in all aspects of their play, but the Vikings came away with a victory which should make it easier to have those discussions with the key players on this side of the ball.

Recent struggles to run the ball is a concern for the Vikings considering the talent they have at Running Back in Dalvin Cook, and it is unlikely that the Offensive Line is going to be able to open up too much for him against this Cardinals Defensive Line.

Pressure will then shift over onto Kirk Cousins at Quarter Back who is having a quietly good season, but without really dominating numbers. If Cousins is playing behind the chains, he will be under a bit of pressure from the Arizona pass rush, but the likes of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson can win their battles outside so I do think Minnesota will have some success moving the ball.

However, I am not sure they can cover more than a Field Goal in what feels like a game where both teams will have their moments with the ball in their hands.

Three Divisional games in a row follow this one for Arizona, but they are 20-8-1 against the spread in their last twenty-nine road games.

At the same time, Minnesota are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine when hosting a team with a losing record on the road, while the Vikings have not really come out as hard as they would like when playing out of their Bye Week. A returning DeAndre Hopkins can help continue the boost for the Arizona passing game and I think that will be enough for the road team to find a way to cover, even if they are not able to win the game outright.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The NFC Championship Game was clearly a huge moment and a game that will be hard to ignore, but the San Francisco 49ers (3-4) have dominated their NFC West rivals the Los Angeles Rams (3-3) in recent years in the regular season. The 49ers were comfortable home winners over the Rams earlier this month and that makes it seven regular season wins in a row for San Francisco.

A home thumping to the Kansas City Chiefs will have stung the 49ers Defensive unit, but they have matched up much better against Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Injuries have been an issue for the 49ers on this side of the ball, but I do think the Chiefs are a tougher team to scheme against and Kyle Shanahan will know exactly how his team need to approach this one as they look to bounce back.

The Rams are well rested and will have had time to devise a game-plan that can make them a lot more effective than when they scored just nine points in the road game at San Francisco, but Sean McVay has not always been at his best as a Head Coach when coming out of a Bye Week.

A major problem for the Rams is that they need to establish the run to get the rest of the Offensive schemes in sync, but that has been a problem for them all season. Things are unlikely to change in this Week 8 game as they prepare to face a stout San Francisco Defensive Line that is giving up an average below 100 yards per game on the ground.

It shifts the pressure onto Matthew Stafford, but the Quarter Back has not looked as comfortable with the skill players outside of Cooper Kuup.

Matthew Stafford may point to Offensive Line issues when trying to throw from third and long spots and that is likely to be the case again. The 49ers got some of their key players back to rush the passer last week and I do think San Francisco are going to be stalling drives by simply teeing off on Stafford when he drops back to pass and hopes to be given the time for routes to develop down the field.

The San Francisco 49ers will be looking to make life easier for their own Quarter Back as Jimmy Garoppolo continues to show that he is likely to take the team only so far. That is perhaps a little bit harsh on the Quarter Back as one who has played in the Super Bowl, but he is little more than a game-manager and Jimmy Garoppolo's first task will be to hand the ball off to Jeff Wilson and Christian McCaffrey in a bid to establish the run.

With the smoke and mirrors approach that Kyle Shanahan will look to employ, I do think the 49ers can at least move in front of the chains and I also think McCaffrey is going to be a big weapon as a pass catching Running Back that will take those short passes and look to break big gains.

This can only bode well for Jimmy Garoppolo, who had a decent game in the first match up with the Rams in early October, and I think he can have success in this one too. Deebo Samuel is a big absentee, but George Kittle looked healthier last week and Garoppolo should be given enough time to find Receivers down the field.

The spread is a small one, but I do like the 49ers to continue their dominance of the Los Angeles Rams.

The extra preparation time should help the Rams, but they have not really impressed this season and San Francisco have covered in their last four road games against this Divisional rival.

Home crowd has not been a factor in favour of the Rams who are 1-4 against the spread in their last five in this Stadium, while I do like the fact that the 49ers have gone 6-2 against the spread in their last eight following a straight up loss.

This feels like a good match up for the 49ers and I expect they continue their recent dominance of the series.

Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: You almost feel you have to back Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (3-4) as a double digit underdog in a primetime slot in Week 8 of the NFL season. Elite Quarter Backs tend to thrive as underdogs in general, but there is no doubt that the line will not have escaped the attention of Rodgers and his team-mates and pride is going to kick in.

It also does say a lot about the Buffalo Bills (5-1) who are coming out of their Bye Week after beating the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in Week 6 and who remain top of the AFC East. Most will be expecting the PlayOffs to be travelling through Buffalo this season, although it is going to be a race to the finish line with a number of teams on five wins that will believe they can secure what could be the all-important Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

The Bills will have a huge amount of respect for Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen has spoken very highly of the Quarter Back on the other sideline. However, it cannot be ignored that the Green Bay Packers have simply not looked like the team many expected and that is on both sides of the ball with the Defensive unit not making enough stops.

One of the main problems for the Packers is that the Defensive Line cannot stop the run and I think the Buffalo Bills will be able to become the latest team to take advantage. Most will think of the powerful passing of Josh Allen, but the Quarter Back gets plenty of things moving on the ground too and the Bills have Devin Singletary also making effective plays on the ground.

Being unable to stop the run has meant teams have just pounded the rock at the Packers, but this Secondary is going to be tested harder than they have at any time this season. Green Bay have simply not faced an Offensive unit like the one the Bills bring to the table and I think this is another opportunity for Josh Allen to show the nation that he may be the top Quarter Back playing in the NFL.

I expect the Bills to find their Offensive groove with all the weapons they have and they should score plenty of points so the pressure is on the Packers and Aaron Rodgers to find the right formula to get their own Offense unstuck.

The Packers may feel the best approach to this one is leaving Allen and the Bills Offense to idle on the sidelines for as long as possible and that will mean pounding the rock, controlling the clock and using long, extended drives to frustrate the home crowd. In AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones, Green Bay do have two solid Running Backs, but the Offensive Line is not going to be able to bully the Bills up front and I think it will be difficult to expect the Packers to dominate the line of scrimmage.

In previous years you might have expected Aaron Rodgers to loosen up the running lanes with his arm, but a thumb issue coupled with inconsistent play out of his Receivers has proved hard to overcome. Losing Davante Adams has been a major blow and the Packers may struggle to break clear of some of the quality players the Bills will trot out in the Secondary, although injuries have seen them a little more vulnerable to the pass in recent games.

Some of that is down to the fact that teams have to throw to keep up with the Bills, and that means soft coverage from the Secondary and the numbers perhaps don't highlight how well they have been playing. The Packers will also have to try and protect Rodgers and give him time to make his throws if they are playing catch up, but containing this Buffalo pass rush may be beyond this team.

Sean McDermott usually has Buffalo well prepared out of their Bye Week and this is another chance to showcase their talents to a wider audience, which is a huge motivational tool for players. It should also keep them focused on Week 8 rather than the suddenly important AFC East game against the New York Jets which is on deck, and I think the Buffalo Offensive power sees them punish the Packers with another big home win.

I don't think it is easy to oppose Aaron Rodgers with this many points behind him, but the Bills have won their two home games by at least 34 points this season and they should have the scoring power to pull away.

MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 9.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 7: 5-3, + 3.04 Units (16 Units Staked, + 19% Yield)

Week 6: 2-6, - 8.34 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.13% Yield)

Week 5: 2-7, - 9.36 Units (17 Units Staked, - 55.05% Yield)

Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)

Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

College Football Week 9 Picks 2021 (October 30th)

I will be updating the season totals in the Week 10 College Football post, but you can read the selections from Week 9 below.

UCF Knights @ Temple Owls Pick: It has been three seasons since the UCF Knights (4-3) won the American Athletic Conference and it was during a period when they felt really hard done by that they were ignored for the College Football PlayOff. Injury has not really helped their cause in 2021 and there may be one or two envious glances from the fanbase at Conference rivals the Cincinnati Bearcats who could be invited into the PlayOff if they can complete an unbeaten season.

There is nothing the Knights can do about that now, but they are looking to produce a fifth winning season in succession and the remaining schedule certainly gives them an opportunity to do that. You would expect the Knights to be favoured in four of their remaining five games, which should mean another Bowl appearance as well as securing that winning record before playing the final game of the season.

The Knights are big favourites when they head to Philadelphia to take on the Temple Owls (3-4) who have lost two games in a row, but who have bounced back from a tough 2020 season when they finished 1-6. It will be a challenge for the Owls to earn the three wins they will need to become Bowl eligible, but the improvement from 2020 will impress Head Coach Rod Carey.

Losing the starting Quarter Back made things very difficult for the UCF Knights and it is entirely possible that Dillon Gabriel will not return this season, but the Knights match up pretty well Offensively with the Temple Defensive unit even without Gabriel behind Center. Last week the Owls were crushed on the ground and this UCF Offensive Line has shown they can open up some big holes up front, while the Owls have allowed an average of over 285 yards per game on the ground over their last three games.

Unsurprisingly, as Temple have looked to find a way to clamp down on the run, there have been issues stopping the pass in the Secondary when teams to decide to throw against them. This should mean the UCF Knights are able to move the ball with plenty of consistency in this game and I am not that surprised they are such big favourites, even on the road against a team with a decent enough record.

In Week 8, Temple could not stop the South Florida Bulls piling up huge numbers on the ground and it ultimately meant the Owls were also dominated in the time of possession. That put pressure on the Offensive unit to try and make full use of the limited time they had with the ball, but they are facing a UCF Defense which is coming off a hugely impressive performance.

An extra day of preparation as well as rest and recovery should boost the Knights Defensively and they match up well with this Temple Offensive unit. There have been one or two holes up front which has seen teams being able to establish the run against UCF, but Temple have not shown a consistency behind their Offensive Line and the pressure then shifts onto D'Wan Mathis at Quarter Back.

Time is something that Mathis cannot rely upon with the pressure the Knights continue to generate from the strong pass rush and it may be enough for UCF to pull clear of a wide mark.

The Knights are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in this Conference series and the road team has improved to 5-1 against the spread in the last six.

UCF are not a great favourite to back over the last couple of years, but Temple have a rough record as a home underdog and I do think the Knights can get behind the run and pull clear.

Washington State Cougars @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: Earlier this season it felt like the Pac-12 would have an opportunity to earn one of the spots in the College Football PlayOffs in December. The Oregon Ducks won at the Ohio State Buckeyes to be considered the favourite, but they have not really been able to back that up and teams have lined up behind them to potentially win the Pac-12 Championship.

The Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) and the Washington State Cougars (4-4) are in different Divisions, but they have done enough to this point to believe they earn a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The home team are 3-1 in the Pac-12 South, but they were beaten by the Utah Utes a couple of weeks ago and that means Arizona State are going to need some help if they are going to finish above the Utes over the coming weeks.

All Herm Edwards can do is guide his team week to week and they are going to come out of the Bye as big favourites. The pandemic meant Arizona State finished 2-2 in 2020, but they have a winning record in the first two seasons under Edwards and the Sun Devils look like they are capable of finishing up with their best record under this Head Coach.

The USC Trojans are next on deck for the Sun Devils, a huge game within the Division, but they can't afford to overlook the Washington State Cougars who have a 3-2 record in the Pac-12 and who are just a game behind in the Pac-12 North. This was supposed to be a season when Head Coach Nick Rolovich would take the team forward after a 1-3 record, but off field issues, namely refusing to be vaccinated, has meant Rolovich and a number of his staff have been fired.

There had been rumours that Nick Rolovich was going to refuse to take the vaccine and the decision by the State to mandate compulsory vaccination was always going to end one way. The team were right behind the Head Coach until the end and had won three Pac-12 games in a row, but the players showed they refuse to allow off field distractions to dictate how the remainder of the season goes.

Washington State battled hard in their narrow loss to the BYU Cougars in Week 8 and they will be heading into a Bye before the big game with Oregon in a couple of weeks time. That may be the best time for the team to reset after the drama off the field, but Washington State will feel they have control of their own destiny in the Pac-12 and that means trying to keep up with the Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers in the Division.

There is a touch more balance in the Washington State Offensive game-plan than we were used to seeing in Mike Leach's Air Raid time here, but the pass is likely going to be a big part of their plan this week. The Cougars have been a little inconsistent running the ball behind the Offensive Line and the Arizona State Sun Devils have been pretty strong up front, but over the last three games the Secondary have given up some big plays.

Some key players could be returning for the Sun Devils in Defensive Back positions, but Jayden de Laura has shown enough at Quarter Back to believe he can find some holes to exploit. The Cougars are averaging over 300 passing yards over their last three games and the Washington State Offensive Line have been strong in pass protection to believe they can give their young Quarter Back some time.

Balance is something that Herm Edwards can rely upon when the Arizona State Sun Devils have the ball and I do think they are going to have some joy establishing the run, which will set up the entire Offense. The Sun Devils have twenty-two rushing Touchdowns this season and they have a number of players who can come in and make some big plays on the ground, while the Sun Devils should be able to get going against the Cougars Defensive Line which has allowed 4.9 yards per carry in recent games.

Running the ball will just ease any pressure on Jayden Daniels who has faced some pass rush pressure with the Sun Devils looking more effective in run blocking than pass protection. The Cougars have actually played the pass pretty well, but being unable to clamp down on the run should mean Jayden Daniels makes some big throws and it should give the home team a real opportunity to win the game.

Even then, I do think this is a very big spread with the Arizona State players having a hugely important Divisional game coming up next. When these teams last met here two years ago, the Sun Devils earned a narrow win and I do think the Washington State Cougars have been given a lot of points this time around.

The Cougars have covered in their last four as the road underdog, while Arizona State are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten as the home favourite. The Bye will have given the Sun Devils a chance to get healthier, but the spot is not an ideal one and this is a lot of points for a potentially distracted team to cover.

TCU Horned Frogs @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: The Big 12 is going to have a different feel when the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners move to the SEC, but even without those two powerhouse schools, these two teams would be way off the Big 12 Championship Game race.

Only the Kansas Jayhawks are below the Kansas State Wildcats (4-3) and TCU Horned Frogs (3-4) in the Conference and both of these teams have dropped three of four Conference games played. The Horned Frogs are feeling the pressure as they look to avoid a losing season for the third time in six seasons and they are clearly underachieving compared with pre-season expectations, while the Kansas State Wildcats have perhaps surprised as they look to bounce back from the 4-6 record produced in the 2020 season.

Pre-season expectations don't mean much once you get into Week 9 of the regular season and the feeling is that Kansas State are in a much stronger position if they are going to become Bowl eligible. They are likely to be favoured in each of their next three games and need two more wins to reach the six win mark, while the TCU Horned Frogs will likely need to find at least one upset to have an opportunity to play after the regular season is concluded at the end of November.

Injuries have been a factor working against both of these teams, but neither Head Coach is looking for excuses and the players still have some motivation behind them to produce a strong end to the season. That will be encouraging and I do think the Horned Frogs could make this a competitive game as a small road underdog.

Running the ball is always important to teams in College and the in the NFL and this is an area where TCU have continued to have success. Earlier in the season you may have wondered if they could really establish the run in the manner they have become accustomed to against this Kansas State Defensive Line, but the Wildcats have begun to wear down through a heavy part of their schedule and that should aid their visitors.

The Bye Week will have helped in Week 6, but the Wildcats have still been allowing their last three opponents to average 170 yards per game on the ground and those have been given up at 4.9 yards per clip. Those are numbers that will be something that TCU will be looking to exploit having been able to move the chains on the ground all season and I think it is important for Max Duggan at Quarter Back, who made two costly mistakes in the defeat to West Virginia.

Max Duggan should have time in the pocket with the team likely to be in third and manageable spots, but he has not really developed in the manner the Horned Frogs would have hoped. The Wildcats Secondary is one that can step up and make some big plays, but Duggan should be a little stronger than he was in Week 8 and that can put TCU in a position to move the ball and punch in some Touchdowns.

A healthier Kansas State team will be looking for a much stronger start than they made against the Texas Tech Red Raiders last time out and the momentum is with them after the second half rally produced the narrowest of wins. Skylar Thompson will be looking for a strong end to the season as he rebuilds his full health and he should be well backed by the Kansas State rushing Offense against a Horned Frogs team that have underperformed significantly up front.

Under Gary Patterson, the Horned Frogs Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run, but they are giving up 212 yards per game at 5.5 yards per carry this season which are going to be their worst numbers by a huge margin since 2016. Even in recent games, there has been little sign of improvement and the real question has to be whether the Wildcats can exploit those issues having struggled to run the ball as the level of opponent has improved.

Head Coach Chris Klieman has made it clear his team need to be able to run the ball if they are going to find the balance they need and in this game it might be most important of all. Skylar Thompson should be able to have success against the Horned Frogs Secondary, which hasn't been any better than the Defensive Line in stopping the pass as the latter are the run, but becoming one-dimensional is never a good option for any Offensive unit.

I do think the Wildcats will be able to move the ball with considerable success, but TCU have the Offense that matches up well with them and that could lead to a game where there is very little between them. The last three games have been decided by a combined 15 points between these teams, but TCU have won the yardage battle in the last two despite being upset both times by the Wildcats.

This time it is the Horned Frogs who are the underdog and I think that may give them some fire in the belly to try and bounce back from the loss to West Virginia in Week 8. TCU might not be the best road underdog to back, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven following a straight up loss and they should be able to keep this game very competitive.

Kansas State are 3-4 against the spread as the home favourite under their current Head Coach and they have simply not used to being considered a favourite in Big 12 play. That can add to the pressure of expectation and I think the Horned Frogs can be backed with the points here.

The Wildcats are 2-11-1 against the spread in their last fourteen games set as the favourite of fewer than 20 points and I do think having a little more than a Field Goal worth of points makes the road team appealing in this game.

MY PICKS: UCF Knights - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Washington State Cougars + 16 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

TCU Horned Frogs + 4 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Vanderbilt Commodores + 17 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

NC State Wolfpack - 6 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boston College Eagles + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 3 Points @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Virginia Cavaliers + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 10 Picks 2021 (October 30-November 1)

I'll be honest, I have not watched one minute of football since around 625pm last Sunday when concluding watching my team leave the pitch at Old Trafford.

There really is nothing more to say as we get ready to begin the week which will conclude with the November international break.

Leicester City v Arsenal Pick: The first game of the Premier League weekend sees Arsenal once again in front of the television cameras as both them and their hosts, Leicester City, look to continue what has been a positive run of form.

Both of these teams progressed to the League Cup Quarter Final during the week and both Leicester City and Arsenal have been moving up the Premier League standings after disappointing starts to the season. That will have given the players plenty of belief as they look to produce another big week before the latest international break sees the players jet off to represent their countries.

There is much to like about the performances of both Leicester City and Arsenal over the last month, but I think the home advantage for The Foxes can be important.

They were beaten twice by Arsenal at the King Power Stadium last season, but those were fixtures behind closed doors and it is different with crowds. Leicester City have won their last 3 at home against Arsenal with the supporters inside the King Power Stadium and the recent Arsenal unbeaten run has been built on home form.

Arsenal were fortunate to win at Burnley and to avoid defeat at Brighton, but Leicester City are scoring plenty of goals. Defensively there are questions for Leicester City to answer, but Arsenal have not offered the same attacking threat away from the Emirates Stadium as they have at home.

There is quality and pace in the counter attack which could make Arsenal dangerous, but Leicester City look to have turned a corner. This should be a competitive fixture, but Leicester City's attacking consistency could prove to be the difference on the day and I think they can be backed on the Asian Handicap to earn a vital three points.

Burnley v Brentford Pick: Over the years, this has been the kind of match that Burnley have found a way to win and it is those results which have ensured they have spent a number of seasons in the Premier League.

They have yet to win in the 2021/22 Premier League season, but Burnley have picked up a few points over the last month which has kept them just about in touch with those above them. The fixture list looks to be getting much kinder for Burnley in the weeks ahead, but they did fail to beat Norwich City here and that means they have not won any of their last 14 Premier League games at Turf Moor.

The team are not creating as many chances as they would like and Burnley have not been as intense defensively either. Put that together and it is very difficult to find wins, while it also leaves them potentially vulnerable to a defeat this weekend.

Brentford arrive having won their last 3 away games in all competitions and even the two Premier League losses in recent weeks is not expected to dent the belief of this squad. They deserved a lot more than they got against Chelsea and Leicester City and being able to compete with those clubs means Brentford will feel very confident going into a set of fixtures which look much more winnable on paper.

They have played really well at Wolves and West Ham United in winning efforts there and Brentford look like they are capable of making it three Premier League away wins in a row. David Raya will be a big absentee for Brentford, but the win at Stoke City in the League Cup during the week shows this is a team that will take things a game at a time and will not allow defeats to affect them too much.

Winning at Burnley is never easy, but Sean Dyche's men have lost 6 of their last 8 Premier League games at Turf Moor. The chances that Brentford are likely to create coupled with the pretty decent defensive shape they can produce means the away team look a good team to back on the Asian Handicap to secure a vital three points.

Liverpool v Brighton Pick: Counter attacking at its finest helped Manchester City beat Brighton comfortably at the Amex Stadium last weekend and that has to be a worry for Graham Potter after seeing how efficient Liverpool had been going forward in their big win at Old Trafford.

Unsurprisingly the layers all feel that Liverpool should be big favourites to win this game, but Jurgen Klopp will be reminding his players that it was Brighton who took 4 points out of their two League meetings last season.

Brighton were one of a number of teams who won games at Anfield in the Premier League, but this Liverpool team is flying and it is going to be a challenge to contain them. However, even at their best, Liverpool have not really blown Brighton away at Anfield and this could be a tough fixture if the home team are expecting to just need to turn up and roll over The Seagulls.

I do think recent games involving Brighton have seen the team just struggle when it comes to their defensive assignments and that is something that Liverpool can exploit. They have conceded six goals over the last seven days and I think Liverpool are well rested and they should be able to pick up from where they left off last Sunday.

Liverpool have been creating chances, but they are not nearly as defensively secure as some believe after one victory. Graham Potter may feel the best defence for his team is getting forward and challenging Liverpool, but that could leave them vulnerable here and the feeling is that the home team will win by a couple of goals on the day.

It won't be a straight-forward win, but Liverpool's attacking threat can see them create enough to put Brighton away and earn revenge for the defeat here in February.

Manchester City v Crystal Palace Pick: There are as many points between 4th place and 10th place in the Premier League as there are between 4th place and 3rd placed Manchester City and the feeling is that the top three Premier League clubs are significantly stronger than the rest of the Division.

That doesn't mean they are going to win every game against those further down the standings, as Southampton proved by drawing here in the Premier League, but it does mean that Crystal Palace are going to have to handle the pressure that Manchester City will exert on them.

Patrick Vieira's style has been pleasing to watch and Crystal Palace have caused problems for West Ham United and Arsenal away from home. Better finishing and better concentration would have seen Crystal Palace operating much further up the Premier League table, but that should not be something that stops Manchester City from showing their class.

Crystal Palace have also been beaten at Chelsea and Liverpool this season and both of those fixtures ended 3-0 in favour of the home team. The new style does leave Crystal Palace a bit more open defensively than they would have been under Roy Hodgson and Manchester City have shown they can create chances and score plenty of goals even without a recognised number nine for many fixtures.

The 1-4 win at Brighton underlined the point and Manchester City should have too much for Crystal Palace here. The key for the visitors has to be trying to stay in the game for as long as possible, but Crystal Palace could not quite get to half time in either of the defeats at Stamford Bridge or Anfield and I think Manchester City are more likely to match those margins of victory than have to settle for a draw like they did when hosting Southampton.

This is a very big margin on the handicap, but Manchester City would have covered it twice in their 4 home League games and also managed to do that in the Champions League win over Leipzig and the League Cup win over Wycombe Wanders. Even in the victory over Burnley it would have been a push and I think the chances being created should see Manchester City produce a strong win on Saturday.

Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: In the next few seasons, Newcastle United versus Chelsea could be a fixture that has a major impact on the destination of some of the biggest trophies in England and European Football.

However, those days are in the future and right now there is a significant gap between these squads. Newcastle United are in the bottom three and looking to avoid relegation, while Chelsea are top of the Premier League table and amongst the favourites both domestically and in the Champions League and I expect that to show up here.

Graeme Jones did help Newcastle United avoid a defeat last weekend, but they were outplayed by Crystal Palace and this is another leap in terms of quality of opponent. The club may be under new ownership, but that doesn't mean the players are much better and Newcastle United are struggling at both ends of the field.

Better finishing from Crystal Palace would have secured three points last weekend and Newcastle United cannot expect Chelsea to be as wasteful. The absence of both Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner hurts Chelsea, but they did score seven goals against Norwich City without them and they will be encouraged by seeing how easily Tottenham Hotspur scored goals here a couple of weeks ago.

Chelsea have won 2 of their last 3 fixtures at St James' Park and they have already passed tests at tougher teams than the one they will see on Saturday. Defensively they don't give a lot away and I think Chelsea will have enough quality in the final third to be able to secure a comfortable looking victory to maintain their lead at the top of the Premier League table.

Watford v Southampton Pick: One of the main areas in which Claudio Ranieri will be expected to improve this Watford team is the defensive performances, but they have conceded seven goals in the two games under the veteran Italian manager. However, Watford will be heading into this weekend with a spring in the step after scoring four goals inside the final 15 minutes at Goodison Park to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 2-5 win.

It is an important three points for Watford, but Ranieri will be working his squad very hard in training this week to make sure they are harder to play against. The goals being conceded in recent home games is a worry and makes it hard for Watford to pick up the results they are going to need, but they may be playing the right opponent to try and turn that around.

Southampton have been playing some very good football under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but they have not had the consistent finishing touch to that football. Danny Ings has moved on, but Adam Armstrong has yet to really convince at this level and it has arguably been the main reason Southampton do not have more points on the board.

In saying that, Southampton might have found someone in Armando Broja who can give them a cutting edge and they did score twice in the home draw with Burnley last week. The manager will know his team deserved more than they earned that day, but he has to be encouraged by the attacking performance and Hasenhuttl will believe it can see the squad turn in a few more positive results.

The two wins over Watford a couple of seasons ago will give Southampton further belief, but I expect the home team to cause problems too and this feels like a game that should feature at least three goals. In the 2019/20 season, both League fixtures between the clubs ended with three or more goals shared out, while 3 of the last 4 at Vicarage Road between Watford and Southampton have ended the same way.

The attacking chances being created has to encourage by teams, but neither has looked that secure at the back either. Southampton may feel more hard done by when looking at recent results, but I think they are playing with confidence and both of these teams may be more effective getting forward than at the back.

It may not be the most appealing game for the neutrals, especially not on paper, but I think Watford and Southampton will produce a fixture with goals here.

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: A few weeks ago, fans of both of these clubs may have been expecting to be watching a game between two high-flying teams, but both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United have been involved in miserable runs.

It means both Nuno Espirito Santo and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer are under immense pressure going into the weekend and it really would not be a major surprise if the losing team is searching for a new manager in the near future.

Limp losses to rivals last Sunday links Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United and there is going to be some real confidence issues going into the game on Saturday. Tottenham Hotspur at least won at Burnley in the League Cup Fourth Round during the week to erase memories of the 1-0 defeat at West Ham United a few days earlier, but confidence is not going to be in the best place.

They are at least facing an opponent who might not be able to drop much lower than being humiliated at home by Liverpool and I do think the first goal is going to be massive.

Spurs have won 8 of their last 10 at home, which should be inspire them, but the first goal is going to be massive in this fixture. That goes for both teams as there are questions whether the squads are still behind the manager at the helm and I think we are going to have some big answers in front of the television cameras.

It is certainly the case for the Manchester United squad who spent much of Monday leaking stories about their dissatisfaction with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. The Norwegian manager likely will never be closer to the Sack without being Sacked as he was on Monday after thousands had streamed out of Old Trafford at half time in the defeat to Liverpool, but now we will get to see how the squad will react and whether they have downed tools to remove Solskjaer.

Picking a winner has so much uncertainty about it- I did think Manchester United could bounce back, but Tottenham Hotspur have been a little more organised at home and this may not be the free-scoring game some think.

Manchester United have been messy defensively in their last three games, but Tottenham Hotspur have not found the balance between attack and defence. They have not been creating a lot of chances and I do think this is a fixture which could see one of the teams fail to find the net.

Both teams have scored in 3 of the 4 away Manchester United games in the Premier League, but if the squad is no longer interested, this could be a tough fixture. Tottenham Hotspur have seen 3 of 4 home League games end with one of the teams failing to find the back of the net and I do think both managers may be looking to make sure their team is able to be much more secure defensively than they have shown over the last few games.

One of the teams failing to score is a big price and I do think that is going to be the outcome of this one with neither team looking to give to much away. Neither is good enough defensively to believe in, but there is uncertainty about the motivations of the squads and that could contribute to a tight, low-scoring fixture.

Norwich City v Leeds United Pick: Games against the top clubs are not going to determine Norwich City's future in the Premier League this season, but that should not see anyone ignore the capitulation they had at Stamford Bridge last Saturday. Losing at Chelsea is going to be an experience for many clubs this season, but losing 7-0 just puts Norwich City under the spotlight a little more as they continue to be questioned about their suitability to play at this level.

The club is pretty well run which means they have proven to be too good for the Championship, but Norwich City have not really been competitive in their last couple of seasons in the Premier League. This looks like another season in which they will be relegation without much of a fight and it is up to Daniel Farke and his players to disprove that feeling.

Norwich City have not been that good defensively and that only highlights their struggles at the other end of the field. You are not going to win matches without scoring goals and Norwich City have managed a single strike in 7 games in all competitions.

However, they will be encouraged by back to back clean sheets before the hammering at Chelsea and it is something Norwich City can build on. They did create some decent chances against Brighton, but there is a pressure on the forward players to produce the goods knowing how hard it is for Norwich City to score goals.

They could be playing Leeds United at a good time though and that is because Marcelo Bielsa's team have been struggling for goals too. Leeds United were known for their attacking intent in the Premier League last season, but they have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last 9 in all competitions, while Leeds United have not scored a single goal in 3 away games.

Patrick Bamford's absence has been a blow, but Raphinha has been struggling for fitness too and the Brazilian will be a big miss if he cannot take part this weekend. It will certainly offer Norwich City a chance to earn their first win of the season considering Leeds United have not had an away clean sheet in the Premier League in the 2021/22 campaign, and I do think the visitors are plenty short to win here.

I won't deny that I feel Norwich City are the worst team in the Premier League this season, but they have created chances in home games and a single strike may be enough to secure a point. The clean sheets against Burnley and Brighton before the thumping at Chelsea are encouraging and Leeds United may be vulnerable if their key attacking players are absent in the first of two live Sunday games.

Leeds United are a shorter price than Brighton were to win here earlier this month and there is nothing in the performances of the former to suggest that should be the case. The lack of goals gives Norwich City every chance to earn a positive result and I think they can be backed on the handicap to do that.

Aston Villa v West Ham United Pick: These two teams both play in claret and blue at home and both Aston Villa and West Ham United would have gone into the season with some big expectations from the fans.

Pundits may have been a little more uncertain, but West Ham United are proving that last season was anything but a fluke and they are looking strong. The 1-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday has moved West Ham United into the top four and they have been playing really well out of the October international break.

The squad looks deeper than many thought and David Moyes has the players all on the same page, which has led to some very strong performances. West Ham United have been particularly impressive away from the London Stadium and I do think they are capable of backing up their League win here in February.

Selling Jack Grealish did mean there was some uncertainty about how Aston Villa would react, but Dean Smith had reinvested significant sums. The hope was that those players could make up for the sale of their top player, but Aston Villa have struggled for consistency and that is largely down to the porous defensive performances that had not been evident last season.

It has nothing to do with the sale of Jack Grealish, but instead it feels like Aston Villa have been punished for the chances they have been giving up much more than they had been in the 2020/21 season. That has led to setbacks and a number of losses already and I do think West Ham United are the superior team.

You can't really underestimate some of the quality that Aston Villa have, but they have been conceding a lot more chances than West Ham United. If that plays out the same way on Sunday, I think West Ham United have shown they can play away from the London Stadium and produce big results where needed and backing the away team to come through with a win on the handicap looks the play.

Wolves v Everton Pick: Monday Night Football will come from Molineux this weekend and both Wolves and Everton are going to be expecting to challenge for European berths at the end of this season. Neither side really reached the level of expectation last season, but new managers have come in and there have been some positives to hold onto.

Momentum has moved in different directions though.

Wolves started out with some very poor results under Bruno Lage, but the performances had been better than those results indicated. In recent weeks the results have improved markedly and they are unbeaten in 4 Premier League games during which time Wolves have picked up 10 points from a possible 12.

Finding the balance between attack and defence at home is still a work in progress for Bruno Lage, but Wolves did beat Newcastle United here last time out. They have played better in other games, but a win will have just got the team feeling positive about playing here and I think that gives Wolves an edge.

Everton did beat Wolves both at home and away in the Premier League last season, but a positive start to this season has been replaced with much tougher performances. The back to back home losses to West Ham United and Watford would have stung the fans, especially as Everton have looked really messy at the back in those two losses.

It is not what you would expect from a Rafael Benitez team, but injuries are really hurting this team. Richarlison has returned and may have more minutes in the legs this week, but being without both Abdoulaye Doucoure and Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a big blow for a team looking to bounce back from two very poor outings.

They have not won any of their last 3 away games in all competitions and Everton may just be vulnerable to the pace and quality that Wolves can produce in the final third. Raul Jimenez looks to be reaching his best levels again and I think he can make the difference between the two teams.

Wolves will not have things easy, but they should be the more confident of the two teams. I expect Rafael Benitez to be working his players very hard after conceding five at home against Watford, and they should have a better defensive shape, but Wolves have put the positive results together and I think they can be backed for the three points.

MY PICKS: Leicester City 0 Asian Handicap

Brentford 0 Asian Handicap

Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap

Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap

Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Watford-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United Both Teams to Score- NO

Norwich City + 0.5 Asian Handicap

West Ham United 0 Asian Handicap

Wolves - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 10

That will teach me for going heart over head.

Mohamed Salah was clearly the right play as the Captain last week, but I could not go against United.

That will be the last time I allow my heart to dictate how I will feel about any GW, at least until Manchester United start to act like a big club. The fact that there were no changes made following the embarrassment of last week just underlines how little the club care, and that means I will have to make sure the head rules the heart going forward.

The Egyptian will be given my Captain armband this week, but I was just as irritated with Kai Havertz who has gone into full troll mode this week.

Not only was he the only Chelsea starter that didn't earn any attacking returns from a 7-0 win over Norwich City, but he scored in the League Cup during the week to put a spotlight on his shithousery. There is almost no doubt that Salah will blank this week and Havertz will score twice at St James' Park, but that is only going to happen if I Captain the former and that has to be the right play.

Last month I did mention that I would like to roll a Free Transfer through the international break, but injuries meant that was not possible. However, I think that is likely to be the case this week with the bench capable of making up for some of the injuries my squad is currently dealing with.

I will post my full team on Twitter on Saturday before the 12:30pm kick off, but I won't be making any transfers and the starting eleven looks like it picks itself.

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (October 30-November 2)

The season has been plenty strange already and I think it is telling that we have heard things like Kylian Mbappe talking about being fatigued and feeling like this is the end of the season rather than the beginning.

Injuries are piling up through the top European Leagues and managers are in an unenviable position of having to find results at the same time as maintaining their duty of care to their players by making sure they are well rested.

It hasn't just made things difficult for the real managers, but Fantasy Football managers have to also be feeling the pain. That is the case for my time and I am having my worst start to the Official FPL season as I have had in many a year with nothing seemingly going right and the strange, Twilight Zone entering results meaning some unfamiliar or unexpected names lead the way in terms of the points being earned.

I'll moan more about that below.

Wolves v Crystal Palace Pick: Inconsistent results have been a feature of the early Premier League season and that is the case for both Wolves and Crystal Palace. One week they can look pretty good, but on another they can play terribly and that makes it hard to get a good read on either side.

The only element that has been clear for Wolves is that they are struggling to create a lot of chances and that has resulted in problems scoring goals. Raul Jimenez continues to lead the line effectively, but they have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last 6 in all competitions since stunning Sheffield United with two early goals on the opening weekend of the season.

Back to back 1-0 wins would have been appreciated, but last week Wolves were punished for the lack of goals when conceding in the last few minutes in their 1-1 home draw with Newcastle United. At least Wolves can point to the fact they largely contained their visitors before Rui Patricio's error in setting up his wall for the free kick that was converted by Jacob Murphy.

It is difficult to know which Crystal Palace will turn up on Friday too- will it be the one that has been very effective going forward in their wins at Manchester United and Fulham or the one dominated at home by Brighton. Roy Hodgson's team have been better away from home where the onus is on their hosts to get forward which leaves space for a pacy attack, but Crystal Palace have also been hammered at Chelsea.

Defensive injuries are mounting up which makes it more difficult to trust Crystal Palace who have not had a clean sheet in their last 5 Premier League games and only once in their last 14 in the League. The Eagles have been scoring goals to make up for that, but it won't be easy to break down this Wolves team and games between these clubs have tended to be low-scoring since the latter returned to the top flight.

All four games have ended with fewer than three goals scored and the feeling is that this PPV game on Friday evening may go the same way. An early goal could really change the entire feel of the fixture, but I think both Nuno Espirito Santo and Roy Hodgson are managers who will look to restrict the spaces for the fast, attacking players and that could lead to another tight fixture involving Wolves.

Goals have been more frequent in Crystal Palace games, but I would be surprised if either team is producing a lot of chances in this one. Set pieces could be key, but both clubs are pretty adept at defending them too and I think this will be a game that doesn't feature more than two goals.

Backing at least one to avoid hitting the net looks the more appealing price now the money has come down on the Under 2.5 Goals option with the 1-1 scoreline the biggest danger.

Sheffield United v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League campaign has not started ideally for Manchester City, but they will be pleased that their early setbacks have not been as costly as they tended to be twelve months ago.

This time around none of the teams have shown the kind of consistency Liverpool displayed in the first five months of the 2019/20 season and that means Manchester City are 'only' 5 points behind the League leaders with a game in hand. That is not as big a gap as they may have expected having won 2 of their 5 Premier League games played, but Pep Guardiola will know they can't afford to keep dropping points.

Back to back 1-1 away draws at Leeds United and West Ham United have just raised some doubts about this Manchester City team, but they have shown in their win at Marseille in the Champions League that there is still plenty in the tank. Being without Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus does mean Manchester City lack a focal point, but they are still creating chances and I do think they are playing much better defensively than their recent results may suggest.

In their last 4 games out of the international break Manchester City have been particularly good at the back and I do think Sheffield United are going to have a tough time breaking them down. Set pieces will likely be their biggest threat, but The Blades have been lacking a cutting edge overall which makes it hard to believe they can pick up a positive result here.

Chris Wilder is more pleased with the recent performances from his team, but Sheffield United continue to struggle in the final third. They do play some decent football which creates chances, but lacking a clinical striker is not just an issue which has plagued them this season.

Even last season Sheffield United perhaps did not have the kind of end product they deserved for their play, but they were stronger defensively. That has not been the case in the 2020/21 season so far and Sheffield United have not had a clean sheet in their last 9 Premier League games.

They have scored just once in their last 4 home League games and even that was a Penalty and I do think Manchester City will be too strong for them. I am not sure whether the away side will be capable of blowing away Sheffield United on their own current form, but Manchester City should have enough to secure the points and I will back them to win a game in which fewer than five total goals are produced.

When Manchester City are at their best they capable of hammering any team at any ground, but this is a team who have looked to be a little more defensively sound in recent games. They have not scored more than a single goal in their last 2 away Premier League games, but Manchester City should have at least one more in them here which will likely be enough to secure the three points.

Burnley v Chelsea Pick: The difficulty for those clubs playing in European Football compared with those who are not is clear to see as Chelsea will continue to play every three days while Burnley are going to have had a week to prepare for the fixture.

Even then there are no excuses for the so called 'bigger' clubs who have deeper squads and ultimately have players who are used to being involved in big games all the time.

Chelsea's 0-4 win in Krasnodar was an impressive one for the players as they ended a 3 game run without a victory. Most pleasing for Frank Lampard has to be the third clean sheet in a row and I expect he is going to be preparing his team to be focused from set pieces as they look for a fourth in a row.

They are facing a Burnley team who played well on Monday Night Football in their narrow 0-1 home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. On another day the 1-0 scoreline may have been in favour of Burnley and Sean Dyche has to be encouraged by the level of performance.

Injuries continue to hurt Burnley, but they are not a team who are likely to roll over for Chelsea despite the poor home run against them. Burnley have lost 5 of their last 6 at Turf Moor against Chelsea and they have conceded four goals in each of the last 2 here against them.

It may be a concern that Chelsea managed that number in wins over Crystal Palace and Krasnodar earlier this month, but there is still a lack of consistency in the away side. That is no surprise with the number of new faces in the squad, although Chelsea have looked much more secure defensively ever since Edouard Mendy has taken over from Kepa.

He made some decent saves in Russia on Wednesday and was also a key performer in the goalless draw at Manchester United. It might give Chelsea the slight edge here, and I can't ignore the current struggles Burnley have been having at getting on the scoreboard recently.

The feeling is that one of these teams will end up failing to score and that is more likely to be Burnley than Chelsea. It could be a battle if Burnley replicate the levels they produced against Tottenham Hotspur though and the feeling is that it may be a fixture where one, or both, of the teams fail to find the back of the net.

Liverpool v West Ham United Pick: You can't help but be impressed with the recent performances of West Ham United and David Moyes is rebuilding his reputation following a poor time as manager of Manchester United.

It has been over six years since Moyes has left Old Trafford, but he has not had much consistent success anywhere. His two spells at West Ham United have been the best moments in the time since and the start made to the new season has just reminded people of the successes David Moyes had when managing Everton.

The fixture list could not have been much more awkward for Moyes and The Hammers to open the 2020/21 season, but the character of the squad has produced some huge results. Even in the defeat at the Emirates Stadium West Ham United were the better team and they have followed that with Premier League wins over Leicester City and Wolves and come from 3-0 down to earn a draw with Tottenham Hotspur before another draw against Manchester City.

Those are some top results and they will head up the M1/M6 with some confidence despite the poor recent outcomes from visits to Anfield. This time West Ham United have largely a fully fit squad to choose from and they are taking on a Liverpool team that has problems in picking a backline for this game through injury.

With the goals West Ham United are scoring they will give it a go here, although they will obviously be given a setback if Michail Antonio is not able to take part. Even then you have to believe West Ham United have to try and challenge a Liverpool backline which is decimated at the heart of the team.

That will be an issue for the home team to deal with, but Liverpool's front three are fresh and they are a team that create chances at Anfield. As positive as the eventual results have been, you can't just throwaway the 3-0 deficit West Ham United found themselves in at Tottenham Hotspur earlier this month before the late recovery.

Manchester City also had some decent chances against them and in Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah Liverpool do have players who won't be as wasteful in front of goal. Liverpool have also scored plenty of goals when hosting West Ham United in recent times and I do think the home team will look to protect the makeshift centre half pairing by getting on the front foot and pushing West Ham United backwards.

I would not be surprised if The Hammers played their part in this fixture, but Liverpool should be too good and I think that will lead to an important victory for them ahead of a big week. A late goal may be needed, but I expect Liverpool to find a way to break down West Ham United and win this by a comfortable looking margin when all is said and done.

Aston Villa v Southampton Pick: There won't have been many who would have suggested this would be a fixture between two of the current top seven in the Premier League and especially not at this stage of the season.

Both Aston Villa and Southampton have to be very pleased with the starts made to the campaign and this may be a special season if the rest of the Division continue to perform as inconsistently week to week as they have been.

The two clubs are both within touching distance of the leaders Everton and there should be a confidence about them.

Some of that may have been knocked from Aston Villa who were beaten 0-3 by Leeds United last time out and now they have to face a Southampton team who are unbeaten in 4 games. The Saints have won 3 of those including the victory over then unbeaten Everton last Sunday and they have looked pretty good defensively ever since the home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur.

Those stronger performances have resulted in 3 clean sheets from their last 4 Premier League games and I do think Southampton won't be worried about this fixture. While they will recognise the quality Aston Villa have in the final third, Ralph Hasenhuttl has to believe his own attacking players can have success at Villa Park in what could be a decent watch on Sunday.

Southampton may have a slight mental edge having beaten Aston Villa twice last season, although both wins came before the break in play in March. Since then Aston Villa have been much better and you have to say the defeat to Leeds United is more of an exception than the normal level since June.

It looks like a really good game on paper and the potential to be one, but both clubs are actually playing pretty well defensively. It may mean there isn't much in this one and I do have to give Southampton a slight advantage as the underdog in what could be a close game.

I can't rule out the draw, but I do think Southampton have perhaps been playing slightly better than Aston Villa of late. The home team did hammer Liverpool here which has to be respected, but they perhaps didn't deserve to beat Sheffield United and I think that win over Liverpool makes them a touch over-rated.

Perhaps I will be wrong, but Southampton should be good enough to avoid defeat on their current levels of performance.

Newcastle United v Everton Pick: While Newcastle United earned what was largely an undeserved point, Everton were losing their unbeaten start to the Premier League season and both managers have to be looking for an improvement in fortunes.

Neither club has won either Premier League coming out of the international break and that does put a bit of pressure on them with two weeks to go until the November break in play.

In saying that, I do think both Newcastle United and Everton will be happy with the way things have been going and it is all about making the small adjustments to improve results. Out of the two teams the feeling is that Everton are still performing at a better level than Newcastle United despite the downturn in results.

The absence of Richarlison is a blow to the line up and losing both starting full backs for this game does mean the squad is being stretched. That has to be a concern for Everton fans as they look to maintain their spot at the top of the Premier League, but they will believe there is still enough quality to hurt a Newcastle United team who have not been at their best defensively in the last couple of weeks.

Newcastle United should have some successes of their own with the pace they have in forward areas through Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson, but I think the edge has to be with the visitors. Everton have a very good record in recent visits to St James' Park too and there might still be enough quality in the team even without Lucas Digne, Seamus Coleman and Richarlison to edge to the points here.

The first goal is absolutely huge in this one, but if Everton can get it I do think they can go on and secure the three points in a big game for the squad.

Manchester United v Arsenal Pick: 

Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton Pick: 

Fulham v West Brom Pick: 

Leeds United v Leicester City Pick: 

MY PICKS: Wolves-Crystal Palace Both Teams to Score NO

Manchester City to Win & Under 4.5 Goals

Burnley-Chelsea Both Teams to Score NO

Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Southampton + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Manchester United - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Tottenham Hotspur - 0.75 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 7

I honestly can't quite get to grips with the Official FPL game this season.

If things could go wrong they probably have for my team and I can't seem to get out of the way of those players who lose value which makes it very difficult to turn things around too. It would help if those I have selected could convert some of their XG and XA marks into actual points and overall I am sure you can sense my feelings of frustration.

It does irritate me that others are seemingly benefiting from players who have picked up points almost undeservedly, but at this stage I just feel it is a long season and I am hoping things begin to settle in what has been a strange Premier League season to this point.

I am not entirely convinced they will which means having to make adjustments in the thinking, and that may also mean having to take more Hits than I am used to.

Press Conferences are going to be important for the next two months to try and get a feeling of where players are being rested and it does mean the squad in general has to be stronger than I have sometimes had in the past.

I was hoping to have a transfer roll over into GW8, but I think there is a feeling that either Sergio Reguilon or Ben Chilwell could be rested. That would mean Adam Webster coming in, but I think I can upgrade the defence this week and I am going to want to roll over the transfer through the international break.

For the main part I am happy with the squad and I am not going to rush out and make changes to my team knowing I deserve more points than I have earned to this point. At some stage the luck has to change and I have already made the mistake of dropping Timo Werner before he returned in the kind of manner I would have wanted.

Marcus Rashford is another who has thrived just after I have taken him out of the squad and I want to avoid those rash decisions this week.

Some players are in the last chance saloon- I can't carry Riyad Mahrez for his value and lack of returns, but he has a decent looking fixture this Saturday assuming he is given the start. I do have an idea of some teams and players I would like to target in the weeks ahead, but for now I am looking for this squad to find a way to produce the returns.

I will post my team on Twitter at the deadline on Friday evening.